Academic literature on the topic 'Play with foreign words'

Participants learned foreign vocabulary by means of the paired-associates learning procedure in three conditions: (a) in silence, (b) with vocal music with lyrics in a familiar language playing in the background, or (c) with vocal music with lyrics in an unfamiliar language playing in the background. The vocabulary to learn varied in concreteness (concrete vs. abstract) and phonological typicality of the foreign words’ forms (typical vs. atypical). When tested during and immediately after training, learning outcomes were poorer in the familiar language music condition than in the unfamiliar language music and silence conditions, but this effect was short-lived, as shown in a delayed test 1 week after training, on which the effect was no longer found. Learning outcomes were better for concrete words than for abstract words and better for typical foreign forms than for atypical ones. Contrary to the adverse effects of familiar language music, the effects of concreteness and typicality were lasting. We explain the interference effect in the familiar language music condition in terms of the workings of the phonological loop, a component of working memory involved in vocabulary acquisition (e.g., Gathercole & Baddeley, 1990).

Statement of the problem. The problem of studying the language of emigrants has a special importance at present characterized by the growth of interaction and cultural contacts between countries and peoples. Along with a large number of articles devoted to the language of translingual writers, the works on the analysis of the play on words in the texts by modern authors are quite rare now, and they do not completely describe the problem of the functional significance of this phenomenon, which determined the purpose of this article − to study the play on words as a linguocultural phenomenon in the texts by contemporary emigrant writers. Methodology (materials and methods) in the article is based on the analysis and generalization of articles devoted to the problem of translingual literature done by Russian and foreign linguists from the point of view of linguocultural analysis of the text, component analysis of the semantic structure of lexical units and synchronous comparison of linguistic units belonging to different systems. Research results. After the analytical review of the literature on the topic of the research, the concept of translingvema was studied, the types of translingvemas used by the authors for play on words were identified. The analysis of the play on words in the texts by modern writers who combine elements of various language systems in their works is done. It was concluded that the linguocreative activity of emigrant writers reflects not only the nominative and communicative ideas of the authors, but also conveys additional shades of meanings and the authors’ attitude to the ideas described. Conclusion. The play on words in translingual literature has a special character, it differs from the individual word usage of emigrants, on the one hand, and from the work by monolingual authors, on the other. It is based on linguistic creativity, the desire to achieve a certain effect, to convey additional connotations, which is achieved by violating the normative traditional usage, creating non-standard use of linguistic means with the help of various language systems.

ABSTRACTThe present study investigated the effects of word-recognition training on the word-recognition processing of learners of English as a foreign language (EFL). Providing 7-week word-recognition training, the study examined whether such training improves EFL learners' word-recognition performance. The main aspects of this study concerned word frequency and working-memory capacity in automatization of word recognition. Analysis of variance and correlational analyses revealed qualitative differences in the improvement of EFL word-recognition performance with respect to word frequency. The improvement in the processing of high-frequency words was associated with simple speedup; conversely, the processing of low-frequency words was associated with automatization. Results also showed that working-memory capacity might not play a noticeable role in improving word-recognition speed or efficiency.

ABSTRACT Contemporary urban communities are the likely scenarios where the constructions of personal identities are achieved within a bilingual or multilingual sociolinguistic environment. Tradition acts as a negotiator between the forces that chisel a modified shape to an individual that seeks to immerse the self into a new collectivity. Between the fear to lose the already acquired identity and the forging of a new identity, there are words and worlds that need to be expressed within a discussion on the use of self-translation as a linguistic bridge to reach the other. The decision to embrace bilingualism is based on the desire to explore beyond their “village” and engage in broader conversations. Independently of the reasons of the individual to decide to be immersed in another culture, the decision implies the acceptance of modifications of a somewhat monolithic vision of the “self” and “the other”. To get immersed in bilingualism is the first step to penetrate a biculturalism that is bound to leave marks on the chore of the self as another referent is taken alongside the self, even in a competing way or at least following a comparative approach. That cumulus of life transcends to others through words that reveal a personal mysterious world that is in constant formation and transformation. In this article, I explore the experience of the self and the stranger in relation to linguistic and artistic exile in literature. The multicultural and multilingual author, Nancy Huston, chose literature, the land of words, as a place to establish her inner personal worlds. Words and worlds create a fascinating synergy as they interact with the illusion of a certain identity. “Self” and “the other” engage in conversations that lead to reinventing the self through the use of languages. The situational “exile” of the author is then expressed at multiple levels as the concept of national and foreign, original and translation, individual and collective, fidelity and infidelity, identity and otherness, and mother tongue and foreign language all play interchangeable roles in the hope of constituting a “unique monolithic identity".

This article identifies and analyzes the priority ways of naming the trade organizations of Chelyabinsk and Heihe cities in the zone of cross-border economic cooperation between China and Russia. The typology of the names of shops and other enterprises providing goods and services shows ethnic and cultural features that manifest themselves in the modern language space of the two countries. A large variety of organization names was found in Chelyabinsk city: single words (including complex ones) both Russian and foreign, word groups consisting of Russian and foreign words, abbreviations as well as words with non-traditional spelling and unclear meaning. Six types of naming were found in Heihe city: words with positive connotations, words pointing to the major function of an organization, names containing a company’s location, words including the owner’s name, unsuitable names and samples of erroneous translation. The first 4 can be considered strategic ways of naming as far as they help promote companies that they name on the market of goods and services and play a considerable role in forming potential customers loyalty.

The article is devoted to the names of music stars in Russian youth slang. The number of English borrowings, which appear in the Russian youth’s language, is growing rapidly. Russian youngsters are open for western music. The paper presents the processes of implementation of English names into Russian slang. The studied material shows how English words are transformed to adjust to Russian phonetics. The author of this paper proves that young people do not copy foreign words and phrases, but treat them as a basis for further modifications. They play with foreign words in order to adjust them to Russian phonetics and add humour which is a characteristic feature of youth slang.

The aim of the foreign languages teaching is to enable students to further develop and use English language skills in general and specific contexts and this aim is always achieved through the practice of the four skills - reading, writing, listening and speaking. As far as speaking skills are concerned, oral assessment and role-play situations are often used by English teachers to assess students’ skills. Students pursuing a degree in Secretarial Studies and Administrative Assistance at ESTGL and want to become successful administrative professionals must be aware of the importance of English in their future jobs and must be prepared to communicate in real contexts. This paper, using a descriptive humanistic-interpretative methodology, aims to acknowledge that role-play is one technique a language teacher can explore and to substantiate the Communicative Language Teaching approach used in the Bachelor of Secretarial Studies and Administrative Assistance. We concluded that it boosts students’ confidence and their personal interaction skills. and a maximum of 150 words.

The aim of this issue of is to bring together investigation into the lexicon in a variety of languages, in a diversity of manifestations – both at the word level and beyond the word level – and from a variety of perspectives, including not only those which focus on how the vocabulary is internally organized, but also those which deal with the role that lexical units and lexical relations play in the organization of other language levels, particularly in the organization of the discourse. These issues are approached from a variety of perspectives that include not only developments in several disciplines of theoretical and descriptive linguistics, particularly in lexicology, phraseology, word formation, discourse analysis, but also in diverse applied disciplines such as translation, foreign language teaching, English for specific purposes and critical discourse analysis. One of the criteria employed in the compilation of the volume was also the coverage of linguistic diversity. In total, six different languages are investigated in the studies selected in this volume: English, German, Spanish, French, Portuguese, Italian. Without claiming exhaustiveness, we consider that the variety of contributions presented here offers an insight into the vigour of current corpus research into phenomena related to the lexicon. Admittedly, the full range of topics, approaches and methodologies developed in this area of research could not fit in a single volume, but a careful selection of studies representing a variety of interesting advances can be representative of significant developments taking place in the field.

AbstractVocabulary learning strategies constitute a subclass of language learning strategies which can be applied to the four language skills. The aim of the present study is to explore the vocabulary strategies adopted by adult learners of Greek as a second/ foreign language, when dealing with unknown words in L2 reading. To this end, the learners answered a questionnaire and so did their teachers. The results indicated that context and the general knowledge the learner of a second or foreign language brings with him/her about the topic -which is mainly supported by the other words in the sentence- play the most important role in understanding vocabulary. This conclusion probably confirms the power of the syntagmatic axis in the sentence, reinforcing mainly the holistic approach to be adopted in the classroom for the teaching of vocabulary. The process of triangulation has partially supported the research results.

This chapter reports on a follow-up study to Paquot (2013) which replicates its methodology to investigate transfer effects on French EFL learners’ use of recurrent word sequences. The study focuses on a large dataset of two- to four-word lexical bundles overrepresented in the French component of the International Corpus of Learner English (ICLE) as compared to nine other ICLE learner sub-corpora. Results are in line with a usage-based view of language that recognizes the active role that the first language (L1) may play in the acquisition of a foreign language. In accordance with Paquot’s (2013) findings, the different manifestations of L1 influence displayed in the learners’ idiosyncratic use of lexical bundles are traced back to various properties of French words and word combinations, among which their discourse function and frequency of use seem to play a crucial role.

<p>Language-play can briefly be described as the wilful manipulation of the peculiarities of a linguistic system in a way that draws attention to these peculiarities themselves, thereby causing a communicative and cognitive effect that goes beyond the conveyance of propositional meaning. Among the various phenomena answering this description are the different kinds of puns, but also more strictly form-based manipulations such as rhymes and alliteration, in addition to a host of other, sometimes even fuzzier, subcategories.</p><p>Due to its unusual nature, and especially its frequently strong dependence on the idiosyncrasies of a particular language, language-play can generally be assumed to constitute a significant challenge in a translation context. Furthermore, given its non-negligible effects, the translator is not free to simply ignore the language-play (provided it has been recognized as such in the first place) without having taken an active stance on its treatment. However, the difficulties in finding a suitable target-language solution are possibly exacerbated if the source text is a complex multimedia product such as a film, the translation of which, normally in the form of dubbing or subtitling, is subject to additional constraints.</p><p>In view of these intricacies, it has been the aim of this study to analyze and measure how language-play in film has actually been treated in authentic dubbing and subtitle versions. As a prerequisite, the concept of language-play has been elaborated on, and more than a dozen subcategories have been described, developed, and employed. For the purpose of carrying out a meaningful analysis of the dubbing and subtitling of language-play, a corpus has been compiled, comprising 18 family films and 99 of their various target versions, most on DVD, and yielding nearly 800 source-text instances of language-play and thousands of translation solutions.</p><p>The results indicate that especially two sets of factors, among the many that are likely to influence a translation, play a prominent role: the type of the language-play, and the identity and working conditions of the translator. By contrast, the mode of translation (dubbing vs. subtitling), the target language, or the general properties of the films, could not be shown to have a sizeable impact.</p>

This dissertation describes and analyzes the learning environment of the low-level EFL classroom, in the Italian primary sector, mainly focusing on the lexical exposure available to learners from course books and teacher speech, as well as on the relationship between what children hear in class and what they actually learn. It is axiomatic that language learners will rely on language input in order to provide the material for learning but a recurrent methodological weakness of previous studies of classrooms as lexical environments is the polarized types of investigations they have produced - they have either taken into account the spoken input produced by the teacher, in class, or they have focused on the vocabulary available to learners from course books. In truth we have rather more information about the vocabulary of textbooks and very little knowledge about the language of the teacher and what this brings to the learning process. The data reported in this thesis allow for a comprehensive picture of the total vocabulary exposure, of the low-level class, to be drawn. This dissertation offers an insight into the interaction between written and spoken input. It suggests that teaching materials seem to comprise less than 50% of the total lexical exposure available to learners in the low-level class. On the other hand, they also seem to work as important guidelines for teacher speech - which appears to strictly meet the requirements of the primary syllabus. The data seem to suggest that the words that are more salient in the thematic contents of course books are likely to be better acquired by learners of different proficiency levels. Similarly, young learners seem to favour the acquisition of more imageable words to lexical items which do not allow for a mental image to be easily aroused. Variations in learning strategies, adopted by children of different proficiency levels, have been identified. Pupils with no previous exposure to the language seemed to rely more heavily on teacher speech while more advanced graders appeared to distinguish between parts of speech, with nouns being easier to learn than verbs. Finally, frequency of occurrence in the classroom micro-environment is likely to have an impact on learnability of vocabulary; nevertheless, this does not seem to apply equally to learners of all levels of proficiency. In consideration of the lexical gap that seems to exist between the input available from course books and the language produced by the teacher, in class, implications for teaching have been evaluated - with particular reference to the degree of lexical autonomy and general linguistic skills expected from teachers, in the light of the current regulations for recruitment of language teaching staff in primary education, in Italy.

This thesis sought to focus attention on the fact that currently in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) there is no specific governmental body that is charged with complete responsibility for policy-making and regulation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in general and multinational enterprise (MNE) investment in particular. This issue was identified for study as it was noted that firstly, several other countries (irrespective of their level of development) have such an organization in place. Secondly and more importantly, it was also noted that there have been several cases in which a multinational enterprise posed legal, social and political challenges for host country governments for which such governments were not empowered to resolve in either the a priori or ex-post facto sense. This inability on the part of governments to deal effectively with the challenges created by the unique characteristics and behaviors of multinational enterprises could possibly have been mitigated through the existence of a governmental unit tasked with MNE regulation. The objective of the thesis, was to study the feasibility of designing, developing, and/or proposing, for South Africa, a governmental unit for policy making, policy implementation and control of the inward foreign direct investments of multinational enterprises, where it could firstly be shown that such an administrative unit is indeed needed. The arguments made in the study were framed in the form of a null hypothesis and a single research question. The null hypothesis of the study being: Ho = there is a necessity to formalize a government administrative structure for policy setting and implementation of multinational enterprise regulations in South Africa. The hypothesis was examined in terms of being accepted or rejected based in part upon first resolving the research question of the study which is: Is there a need for foreign direct investment policies that apply exclusively to multinational enterprises? As the thesis was of a qualitative rather than quantitative nature, the methodological approach primarily examined theoretical, empirical and anecdotal evidence to ascertain whether the hypothesis should be supported or rejected. Given that the null hypothesis was not disproved and the research question was answered in the affirmative, the thesis concluded and recommended the establishment of a small specialized unit of experts to serve as part of the public service but independent of any other governmental department or unit. The proposed unit should work to provide support to other government agencies in the areas of research, advice and coordination services. As the environment within which such an organizational unit operates can be expected to be relatively stable over time, and the work of the unit highly specialized, it is envisioned that decision making in the unit will be more centralized than de-centralized. The thesis ended by exploring optional organizational designs with the aim of recommending the appropriate hierarchical arrangements to be established for the proposed organizational unit. More specific answers with respect to, for example, the number of people to be employed, their job descriptions, and the remuneration scales to be applied to their positions are recommended by the thesis for further study.<br>Thesis (DAdmin (Public Administration))--University of Pretoria, 2006.<br>School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA)<br>unrestricted

Foreign trade plays an important role in development of each country. Kyrgyzstan, like other transition economies started to open up to foreign countries after achieving it's independence and began to practice it’s own foreign trade policies. But during a 21-year period, a surplus in the trade balance was recorded in 2000 and 2001. In other words, the country's economy has faced a chronic deficit of foreign trade. The main objective of this paper is to study the impacts of domestic income and exchange rate on imports by considering the period after 2000 through econometric method by using of monthly data and according to the results obtained to suggest policy recommendations.

The article touches upon the issue of self-regulation development in preschool children. Play is one of the effective means in development of children’s selfregulatory skills. The aim of the study is to determinate playing conditions conducive to the development of self-regulation in preschoolers. The problem analysis method was used, as well as the modeling method during the study. We have analyzed the scientific works of native and foreign researchers on the issues of children’s play (A. Ivrendi, D. B Elkonin, E. Danniels, etc.) and mental states and self-regulation (V. N. Myasishchev, N. D. Levitov, A. O. Prokhorov and others). Based on the analysis, the study substantiates the need to teach the child self-regulation skills in psycho-emotional stress situations. At the same time, much attention is given to the fact that the acquisition of the skill is impossible without the participation of an adult or a teacher. Areview of studies on the possibilities of children’s play has made it possible to identify a number of conditions conducive to the development of self-regulatory skills: possibility to play a certain role (imitative effect), phasing of play actions, ability for a child to make their own decision, etc. We articulate and validate the need for the following conditions of self-regulation development in preschool children based on modeling the game situation. 1. In a play the child should be able to play several roles in turn. This allows the child to experience different emotions and understand the other person. 2. Introduction of playing element — pauses (time-outs). It allows to reduce the emotional «degree» during the play. 3. Positive reinforcement of the correct actions and emotional manifestations of the child by the adult. It helps the child to learn socially approved actions.

Since the second half of the 20th century tourism has become one of the fast developing and expanding sectors in the world economy. The tourism sector plays an important role in alleviating issues related with the balance of payments, reducing unemployment, creating tax incomes and contributing to economic developments by providing a large foreign exchange inflow to the country, therefore, we can say that this sector has larger impact on economic growth than other sectors. As it is in developing and underdeveloped countries, in Kyrgyzstan the tourism industry is one of the most important sectors in the economy. The tourism sector in Kyrgyzstan plays an important role in in economic development by reducing the level of unemployment and generating the income by providing mass foreign exchange inflow to the country. In this context the aim of this paper is to analyze the role and importance of tourism in Kyrgyzstan’s economy by using methods of statistical analysis. The results show that the total number of tourists coming to Kyrgyzstan, thus the tourism revenues increased. In other words, when tourism revenues increase, this fosters economic development, by receiving a larger share of tourism revenues. In this study, the literature review method was used.

Our aim in this research is to discuss the correspondence with the Ottoman State during the Crimean War, as well as the opposition of Sheikh Shamil, with whom the Russians encountered during their invasion of the North Caucasus. Crimea is a Turkish country, has historically been a place of invasion by various foreign forces due to its geographical location and strategic location. The growing appetite of the Tsarist Russian Empire, the main purpose of which was to capture Istanbul and the right to vote in the straits, led to the beginning of the Crimean War. The Russian leadership began the war, by taking advantage of the privileges granted by the Ottomans to Christians Catholics in Jerusalem, the Armenians in Anatolia and the Greek Greeks. Although the Ottomans ended their relations with the Russians, but the Russian army went on a new offensive. Despite the fact that they did not openly declare war, they captured Eflak (Romania) and Bogdan (Moldova). On October 4, 1853, the Ottoman State declared war on Tsarist Russia. On the other hand, as far as the interests and power of the Ottoman State in Crimea were weakened, the Turkish rulers approached the Russians and over time fell victim to the Russian leadership's plan. Key words: North Caucasian, Ottoman, Russia, Sheikh Shamil, Crimean War

CLARISSA (Child Labour: Action-Research-Innovation in South and South-Eastern Asia) is a large-scale Participatory Action Research programme which aims to identify, evidence, and promote effective multi-stakeholder action to tackle the drivers of the worst forms of child labour in selected supply chains in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar. CLARISSA places a particular focus on participants’ own ‘agency’. In other words, participants’ ability to understand the situation they face, and to develop and take actions in response to them. Most of CLARISSA’s participants are children. This document shares the design and overarching methodology of the CLARISSA programme, which was co-developed with all consortium partners during and since the co-generation phase of the programme (September 2018–June 2020). The immediate audience is the CLARISSA programme implementation teams, plus the Foreign, Commonwealth &amp; Development Office (FCDO). This design document is also a useful reference point for other programmes trying to build large-scale participatory processes. It provides a clear overview of the CLARISSA programmatic approach, the design, and how it is being operationalised in context.

The article explores the key vocabulary of 2020 in the network space of Ukraine. Texts of journalistic, official-business style, analytical publications of well-known journalists on current topics are analyzed. Extralinguistic factors of new word formation, their adaptation to the sphere of special and socio-political vocabulary of the Ukrainian language are determined. Examples show modern impressions in the media, their stylistic use and impact on public opinion in a pandemic. New meanings of foreign expressions, media terminology, peculiarities of translation of neologisms from English into Ukrainian have been clarified. According to the materials of the online media, a «dictionary of the coronavirus era» is provided. The journalistic text functions in the media on the basis of logical judgments, credible arguments, impressive language. Its purpose is to show the socio-political problem, to sharpen its significance for society and to propose solutions through convincing considerations. Most researchers emphasize the influential role of journalistic style, which through the media shapes public opinion on issues of politics, economics, education, health care, war, the future of the country. To cover such a wide range of topics, socio-political vocabulary is used first of all – neutral and emotionally-evaluative, rhetorical questions and imperatives, special terminology, foreign words. There is an ongoing discussion in online publications about the use of the new foreign token «lockdown» instead of the word «quarantine», which has long been learned in the Ukrainian language. Research on this topic has shown that at the initial stage of the pandemic, the word «lockdown» prevailed in the colloquial language of politicians, media personalities and part of society did not quite understand its meaning. Lockdown, in its current interpretation, is a restrictive measure to protect people from a dangerous virus that has spread to many countries; isolation of the population («stay in place») in case of risk of spreading Covid-19. In English, US citizens are told what a lockdown is: «A lockdown is a restriction policy for people or communities to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term «stay-at-home» or «shelter-in-place» is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations». Content analysis of online texts leads to the conclusion that in 2020 a special vocabulary was actively functioning, with the appropriate definitions, which the media described as a «dictionary of coronavirus vocabulary». Media broadcasting is the deepest and pulsating source of creative texts with new meanings, phrases, expressiveness. The influential power of the word finds its unconditional embodiment in the media. Journalists, bloggers, experts, politicians, analyzing current events, produce concepts of a new reality. The world is changing and the language of the media is responding to these changes. It manifests itself most vividly and emotionally in the network sphere, in various genres and styles.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.