Academic literature on the topic 'Political stability index'

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Journal articles on the topic "Political stability index"

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El, Baraka Hamza, and Abdelali Fadlallah. "Political stability, investement and economic growth: Empirical study on africa." African scientific journal Vol 3, N13 (2022): 063. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6983767.

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<strong>R&eacute;sum&eacute; </strong> La stabilit&eacute; politique a un r&ocirc;le tr&egrave;s important dans le processus de d&eacute;veloppement &eacute;conomique d&#39;un pays. L&rsquo;&eacute;tude de l&#39;effet de la stabilit&eacute; politique sur la croissance &eacute;conomique est une des priorit&eacute;s structurelles que ce soit au niveau acad&eacute;mique, politique ou soci&eacute;tale. L&#39;int&eacute;r&ecirc;t de ce travail est de d&eacute;terminer l&rsquo;impact de la stabilit&eacute; politique sur la croissance &eacute;conomique. En utilisant l&#39;estimateur syst&egrave;me-GMM pour les mod&egrave;les de donn&eacute;es de panel dynamiques sur un &eacute;chantillon de 48 pays africains, pour une p&eacute;riode de 20 ans entre 2000 et 2020. Ce document d&eacute;bouche sur les principaux r&eacute;sultats suivants : la stabilit&eacute; politique est une variable essentielle qui d&eacute;termine la croissance, l&#39;effet de la stabilit&eacute; politique sur la croissance est statistiquement significatif, et enfin, l&#39;investissement dans un environnement politiquement stable a un impact positif sur la croissance. <strong>Mots cl&eacute;s&nbsp;: </strong>Afrique, stabilit&eacute; politique, croissance &eacute;conomique, Indice de stabilit&eacute; politique, Test d&rsquo;Hausman, Econom&eacute;trie des donn&eacute;es de Panel. <strong>Abstract </strong> Political stability has a very significant role in the economic development process of a country. The study of the effect of political stability on economic growth is one of the structural priorities whether it be at the academic, political or societal level. The interest of this work is to determine the impact of political stability on economic growth using the system-GMM estimator for dynamic panel data models on a sample of 48 African countries, for a 20-year period between 2000 and 2020. The main results of this paper are that political stability is a key variable determining growth, that the effect of political stability on growth is statistically significant, and that investment in a politically stable environment has a positive impact on growth. <strong>Keywords: </strong>Africa, political stability, economic growth, political stability index, Hausman test, panel data econometrics.
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Muhamad Ferdy Firmansyah, Nanang Rusliana, Haikal Zulian Maulana, Sri Rahmi Nuraini, and Muhamad Ridho. "THE ROLE OF GDP PER CAPITA, ECONOMIC FREEDOM INDEX AND POPULATION GROWTH TO POLITICAL STABILITY IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES." Sunan Ampel Review of Political and Social Sciences 2, no. 2 (2023): 97–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.15642/sarpass.2023.2.2.97-117.

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This study aims to examine the role of economic growth, the index of economic freedom, and the population on political stability. Political stability is one of the factors that can determine the direction of development and economic growth towards the creation of prosperity. Politically stable countries can carry out better economic development. This research contributes to look at the factors that can support political stability in Southeast Asian countries. This study uses secondary data originating from the World Governance Indicator, World Bank Development Indicator and Heritage Foundation in the 2011-2020 period. This study was conducted in Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The research method used is panel data regression. The results show that GDP Per capita and economic freedom index is a significant effect to political stability. On the other side, population growth has not significant impact to political stability. This proves that every country that has good political stability is supported by stable guaranteed economic freedom, and a controlled GDP per capita.
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Wibowo, Muhammad Ghafur. "Political Stability and Human Development in The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries." Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Islam 9, no. 3 (2023): 4110. http://dx.doi.org/10.29040/jiei.v9i3.10262.

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In many Muslim countries, there are dynamics in political stability and security issue. This study examines the relationship between political stability and human development in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. The political stability variable comes from the governance index published by the World Governance Indicator (WGI), which measures political stability, absence of violence, and terrorism. Secondary data on the Human Development Index (HDI) variable comes from the World Bank. This study analyzes 50 OIC member countries for 2003-2021 by employing the Granger causality method for panel data. The results show a bidirectional causality between the political stability index and the human development index in all OIC member countries. However, in countries with a very high HDI, the relationship between the two variables is unidirectional. In contrast, in the group of countries with a high and low HDI, the two variables have no connection.
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Uzair Ahmad, Muhammad Junaid Aslam, Hamza Masood, and Dr. Sher Ali. "Does Political Instability cause and affect Macroeconomic instability in Pakistan?" Critical Review of Social Sciences Studies 2, no. 2 (2024): 598–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.59075/0crq2461.

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This study is intended to examine the cause and effect of political instability on macroeconomic instability in Pakistan over the period of 1993-2023. As the nature of the data is time series therefore stationarity testing is necessary and ADF and PP tests are used for the said purpose. ARDL is employed to tests the required impact and granger causality to get the required objective. Result of the ARDL model reported that Inflation rate and Unemployment rate negatively and significantly influenced Political stability in long-run. Besides this, ECM is applied for short run effect. ECM’s result shows that Unemployment rate, Exchange rate, and Current account balance negatively and significantly influence Political stability in short-run. In the second model, the impact of Political stability variables employed Political stability &amp; absence of terrorism, Voice &amp; accountability, Regulation Quality, and Government Effectiveness on Macroeconomic instability. ARDL model result indicated that Political stability &amp; absence of terrorism, Voice &amp; accountability, and Government effectiveness have negative and significant impact on macroeconomic crisis index. Bound test result shows long-run relationship existence among variables. Besides this, ECM model shows that Political stability &amp; absence of terrorism, Voice &amp; accountability, Regulation Quality, and Government Effectiveness negatively and significantly influence macroeconomic instability. Beside this granger causality test was applied to test causal relationships among variables. The test found that Macroeconomic instability unidirectional granger cause Political stability significantly. Furthermore, Political variables index and Inflation rate show bidirectional causality. Unemployment rate unidirectional causes Political variables index. Similarly, current account balance is unidirectional granger causal political index. On the other hand, only Voice &amp; accountability shows unidirectional causal relationship with Economic variables index.
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Kumar Dahal, Arjun, Ganesh Bhattarai, and Prem Bahadur Budhathoki. "Does Political Stability Matter to the Profitability of Banks?" Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks 8, no. 2 (2024): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.61093/fmir.8(2).1-14.2024.

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This study examines the impact of net interest margin, non-interest income, non-performing loans, and Political Stability Index on the banks’ profitability regarding return on assets in developing Asian countries, focusing on how political stability affects the bank’s profitability. The secondary data from 14 developing countries used in this study are collected from the World Bank and World Financial Studies Report. The dataset includes 154 data points spanning from 2012 to 2022, focusing on 14 underdeveloped countries of Asia. Exploratory and analytical research designs are utilized. Data are analyzed by using EViews 12. Econometric tools such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root testing, Fisher-Johnsen combined co-integration test, panel vector error correction model, and Wald test investigate the relationship between response and predictor variables. The net interest margin, non-interest income, non-performing loan, and Political Stability Index are jointly integrated to determine the bank’s profit of developing countries of the Asia continent. Interest margin, non-interest revenue, non-performing loans, and the Political Stability Index all show a 38.6 percent variance in bank profit. It has been discovered that for every unit that rises in net interest margin and Political Stability Index, the bank profitability of developing Asian countries increases by 0.4867 and 0.2221 percent, respectively. Non-interest income has little bearing on the profitability of banks. Meanwhile, non-interest income exhibits minimal influence, suggesting a need for a strategic focus on interest margin enhancement and fostering political stability to optimize banking sector profitability in the region.
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Eliza Meiyani, Delila Putri Sadayi, and Fadhil Hayan Mochammad. "COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS PRACTICES OF POLITICAL STABILITY IMPLEMENTATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA." MORFAI JOURNAL 5, no. 1 (2025): 209–21. https://doi.org/10.54443/morfai.v5i1.2545.

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Stability is a condition of a system whose components tend to fall into, or return to, an established relationship. Stability is the same as the absence of fundamental or chaotic changes in a political system, or changes that occur within agreed or predetermined boundaries. Development requires security and stability. The development itself must also include security and stability, even the development of security and stability is carried out together with development in other fields. This study uses descriptive qualitative methods, with data collection techniques in the form of literature studies by looking at previous studies, as well as online news as a supporting source. From the data obtained, it will be processed by linking it with the theories that have been previously designed. The approach to political stability as a form of government resilience can be seen from the government management system related to the economy, social, and state security, thus creating political stability in it. Singapore's government tends to have good governance so that it affects the level of the economy and the stability of the country itself, in contrast to Thailand and Myanmar which have a fluctuating index. Especially Myanmar, which has the smallest index for 10 years below the index of 20. This is influenced by the leadershipofr of the warring parties so that it has an impact on coups that often occur.
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Svoboda, Ivo, Olena V. Novakova, Olena B. Balatska, Olena V. Karchevska, and Valentyn S. Tulinov. "Political Extremism in Modern Democratic Transformations." Cuestiones Políticas 39, no. 70 (2021): 504–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3970.30.

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Modern political transformations involve free choice of ideology, ability to communicate with society and maintenance of their political preferences. Political struggle often leads to radical action and political extremism. The aim of this study involved an analysis of political extremism that occurs in modern democracies, and identification of the main factors underlying the development of political extremism. The determinants of the political stability/extremism are analysed based on the algorithm of hierarchical clustering. It is proved that 26 European countries studied in the work can be grouped into four clusters, which are characterised by the number of parties of extremist ideology in the national parliaments of European countries; Elite Quality Index (EQx); the Freedom in the World Index; Political Stability and Absence of Violence Index, which is part of The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). It is revealed that today ideological trends of authoritarian populism, conservatism and extremism are spreading in European countries. Cluster analysis has shown that the political extremism is influenced by the level of quality of national elites, the development of fundamental rights and freedoms, the political stability, and the absence of violence. Further research should focus on econometric simulation of factors shaping political extremism through economic development indicators.
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Yevdokimov, Yuri, Leonid Melnyk, Oleksii Lyulyov, Olga Panchenko, and Victoria Kubatko. "Economic freedom and democracy: determinant factors in increasing macroeconomic stability." Problems and Perspectives in Management 16, no. 2 (2018): 279–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(2).2018.26.

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The main goal of the article is to analyze the role and influence of economic freedom on macroeconomic stability. For this purpose, the authors used the integrated index of economic freedom, calculated by the Heritage Foundation and Democracy Index. It is noted that this index indicator was calculated by the experts from the World Bank using the index of voice and accountability. In the paper, the authors used the multinational panel dataset for 11 countries of the EU for the purpose of checking the correlation between economic freedom, democracy and macroeconomic stability. It should be highlighted that the abovementioned 11 countries are related by the fluctuation of economic growth during the transformation process (1996–2016) from communist party to the democracy and political pluralism. In addition, the authors proposed to add the indicators of political stability and trade openness, which allowed to take into account implementation of flexible macroeconomic instruments, including monetary policy, which towards increasing the economic growth, employment and financial development of the countries. The findings are directed received using the regression equation with fixed and random effects showed the high level of correspondence of the model used with the original observations. Despite the chosen approach to estimate the macroeconomic stability, the findings showed that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of economic freedom and democracy on macroeconomic stability.
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Dahal, Arjun Kumar, Ganesh Bhattarai, and Prem Bahadur Budhathoki. "Nexus Between Political Stability and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study From Nepal." WSB Journal of Business and Finance 58, no. 1 (2024): 62–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/wsbjbf-2024-0007.

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Abstract This study examines the impact of the political stability index, including inflation rate and gross capital formation growth, on Nepal’s economic growth. This study uses secondary data from the World Bank, covering 27 annual data points from 1996 to 2022. Descriptive and exploratory research designs are used. Some statistical and essential econometric tools like graphs, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, Johnsen co-integration test, vector error correction model, and Wald test are used in the study. The independent and dependent variables exhibit long-term cointegration. The preceding year’s political stability has a favorable influence on current economic expansion. One percent improvement in the previous year’s political stability index led to a 0.1896 percent increase in economic growth. One percent increase in inflation results in a 0.1884 percent decrease in economic growth in Nepal. Similarly, 84.96 percent of the variation in economic growth is influenced by factors such as past economic growth, political stability, inflation, and the expansion rate in gross capital accumulation over an extended period. The short-term economic growth of Nepal is influenced by factors such as the previous year’s economic growth, political stability index, and growth in gross capital formation. Nevertheless, the inflation rate does not statistically explain short-term economic progress. To develop sustainable economic growth in Nepal, it is crucial to undertake critical policy initiatives such as enhancing the political stability index, encouraging capital formation, and efficiently managing inflation.
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Arjun Kumar, Dahal, Budhathoki Prem Bahadur, and Bhattarai Ganesh. "Nexus between Unemployment, Income Inequality, Political Stability, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of the Nepalese Economy." Valahian Journal of Economic Studies 15, no. 1 (2024): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/vjes-2024-0001.

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Abstract This study aims to investigate the influence of political stability, unemployment, and income inequality on the economic growth of Nepal while also exploring the reciprocal impact of economic growth, unemployment, and political stability on income inequality within the country. It only uses secondary data from various World Bank reports and Nepal's economic surveys. It only covers 32 data points spanning from 1991 to 2022. The descriptive and exploratory research designs are used in this study. Simple statistical tools like correlation analysis, Unstandardized and standardized regression analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), residual statistics, histogram, and scatterplot for residual analysis are used in this analysis. Unemployment has negative and political stability positively impacts economic growth in Nepal. One percent increase in unemployment results in a 1.920 percent decrease in economic growth. Likewise, one percent increase in the political stability index results in a 0.804 percent increase in economic growth in Nepal. Unemployment hurts more on economic growth than income inequality in Nepal. Unemployment, political stability, and GDP growth are individually and jointly affected by income inequality in the nation. Political stability and economic growth decrease income inequality, but unemployment increases income inequality in the Nepalese economy. One unit increase in the political stability index and economic growth results in -4.356 and -0.117 unit decrease in income inequality in Nepal. The political stability index has a multiplier effect in decreasing income inequality. Unemployment causes income inequality. One unit increase in unemployment results in a 1.121 unit increase in income inequality. Unemployment has a multiplier effect on income determination in Nepal. About 39.7 percent variation in economic growth is determined by political stability, unemployment, and income inequality, but 46.7 percent in income inequality is determined by unemployment, economic growth, and political stability. Policymakers should consider a holistic approach that addresses income inequality, unemployment, and political stability to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth. The abstract is not a substitute for the introduction.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Political stability index"

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Arévalo, León Rosa. "Can I count on you? The stability of Cesar Álvarez’s administration (2006 - 2013)." Politai, 2015. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/91872.

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This article analyzes the factors that contributed to Cesar Alvarez’s administration stability as regional president of Ancash during almost two full consecutive terms (2006 – 2013). Thus, the research focuses on the development of clientelistic and patronage networks that strength- ened his ties with citizens, providing him with constant support. Moreover, those practices protected him from any act of fiscalization or investigation. Finally, public spending, largely financed with mining canon, made possible for Alvarez to show himself as an efficient regional president by developing major infrastructure projects in the region.<br>El presente artículo se centra en los factores que dieron estabilidad a la gestión del expresidente regional de Áncash,  César Álvarez,  durante casi dos periodos consecutivos (2006- 2013) y con probables miras hacia uno tercero. De esta manera, la investigación se enfoca en el desarrollo de redes clientelares y de patronazgo que fortalecieron los nexos que estableció con la ciudadanía, proporcionándole apoyo constante. Asimismo, aquellas prácticas le sirvieron de blindaje ante cualquier acto de fiscalización o investigación. Por último, el gasto público en gran parte producto del canon minero, hizo que Álvarez se demuestre como una autoridad eficiente alpromocionar grandes obras de infraestructura -sobrevaloradas- en la región.
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Gomis, François. "Les nouveaux défis et enjeux de la politique étrangère de la France en Afrique francophone subsaharienne." Thesis, Paris 5, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA05D020.

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Des années 1960 jusqu’à la fin de la guerre froide, voire au-delà, l’influence voire la prépondérance de la France sur les territoires francophones d’Afrique noire est presque totale. Cependant, en ce XXIème siècle naissant, la compétition mondiale dans la recherche de nouveaux débouchés et de la sécurisation de l’approvisionnement énergétique amène inexorablement les grandes puissances à entrer en ‘‘conflit d’intérêts’’ par la pénétration réciproque des « arrière-cours ». Ceci est particulièrement vrai pour la France qui voit des pays tels que les Etats-Unis, la Chine, l’Inde, le Brésil, la Turquie, les pays du Golfe, etc., faire une entrée fracassante dans une région géographique qu’elle considère depuis longtemps comme sa « chasse gardée » compte tenu des liens historique, linguistique et politique. Ces nouveaux défis et enjeux pour la politique africaine de la France se mesurent désormais, à l’aune des transformations à l’œuvre sur la scène internationale avec la mondialisation et l’émergence de nouvelles puissances du Sud. Les défis et les enjeux sont importants pour l’action extérieure de la France et sa place dans le monde, compte tenu de la concurrence féroce des nouveaux acteurs et des changements des sociétés africaines en cours. Néanmoins elle possède encore des atouts économiques, diplomatiques et stratégiques susceptibles de lui permettre d’élaborer, grâce à l’espace culturel francophone, un projet original, ambitieux et porteur d’espoir. Pour ce faire, il faudra répondre aux deux interrogations suivantes : Comment réformer cette politique traditionnelle basée sur des relations étroites et privilégiées avec les dirigeants africains sans toutefois compromettre les avantages comparatifs de la France sur place? Quelle stratégie politique mettre en œuvre pour identifier les véritables intérêts communs des Français et des Africains francophones, en tenant compte des opportunités et des menaces, et les développer dans un partenariat mutuellement bénéfique ?<br>From 1960s to the end of the cold war, even beyond, the influence even the supremacy of France in the French-speaking territories in Sub-Saharan Africa is almost total. However, in this 21st century, the world competition in the research of new markets and the security of the energy supply leads inexorably the great powers to enter in “conflict of interests” by the mutual penetration of the “back-yards”. This is particularly true for France which has countries such as the United States, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, the Gulf Arab States, etc., to make a dramatic entrance in a geographical area where she judged it for a long time as her “exclusive domain” considering the historical, linguistic and political links. These new challenges and issues for the African policy of France are measured from now on, in the light of the transformations at work in the world with the globalization and the emergence of new powers of the South. The challenges and the issues are important for the external action of France and its place in the World, considering the fierce competition between new stakeholders and the ongoing African society changes. Nevertheless it still has economic, diplomatic and strategic assets which enable him to elaborate, thanks to the francophone cultural center, an original project, ambitious and promising. With this aim in mind, it will be necessary to answer to the two following questions: How to reform this traditional policy based on close and privileged relationships with African leaders without compromising, however, the comparative advantages of France on the spot? Which political strategy has to be implemented in order to identify the real common interests of the French and the French-speaking Africans, by taking into account the opportunities and threats, and to develop them in a mutually beneficial partnership?
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Moldovan, Paula Cristina Ciurean. "Essays on the relationships between political indicators, and real exchange rate and inflation." Doctoral thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/24362.

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This PhD thesis re-examines a long-standing debate about the link between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals, with particular attention to two measurements - first, instability and second, uncertainty - in explaining the dynamics of the real effective exchange rate over the past 24 years. At the same time, studies the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and inflation rate. The mission of this thesis is to address these matters of interest in three different studies as follows, the impact of stability and uncertainty on exchange rate dynamics in the first two empirical chapters and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on inflation rate in the last empirical study. The empirical applications emphasise the use of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) in assessing the relationship between the variables under analysis. The thesis contribution to the literature can be seen in three main ways. Firstly, it applies and tests both, the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) framework in a single developed economy in order to compute currency misalignments. Secondly, it emphasises the impact of political stability and economic policy uncertainty on the UK real effective exchange rate and thirdly, links inflation rate to economic policy uncertainty in the aftermath of the 2016 UK vote to leave the EU. We conclude that our empirical results are consistent with literature findings, suggesting that the political stability indicator and the economic policy uncertainty index explain long run fluctuations in the exchange rate dynamics. The value of the inflation rate increases due to the shocks on economic policy uncertainty while the UK currency depreciates due to uncertainty shock.<br>Esta tese de doutoramento reexamina um longo debate sobre a ligação entre a taxa decâmbio e os seus fundamentos macroeconómicos, com particular atenção duas medidas: a instabilidade política e a incerteza de política económica. Esta análise foca-se na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio efectiva real no Reino Unido nos últimos 24 anos. Adicionalmente, estudamos no mesmo contexto a relação entre a incerteza de política económica e a taxa de inflação. A tese aborda estas questões em três estudos empíricos diferentes. O impacto da estabilidade e incerteza na diâamica da taxa de câmbio será estudada nos dois primeiros capítulos empíricos, enquanto que o impacto da incerteza da política económica na taxa de inflação será o tema do último estudo empírico. As aplicações empíricas analisam a relação entre as variáveis utilizando o Modelo de Correcção de Erros Vectoriais (VECM), o Modelo Autoregressivo de Lag Distribuído (ARDL) e o Modelo Vectorial de Autoregressão (VAR). A contribuição da tese para a literatura centra-se em três pontos principais. Em primeiro lugar, aplica-se e testa-se o Modelo de Equilíbrio Comportamental (BEER) e o Modelo de Equilíbrio Permanente (PEER) numa economia desenvolvida, a fim de calcular os desalinhamentos cambiais. Em segundo lugar, sublinha-se o impacto da estabilidade política e da incerteza da política económica na taxa de câmbio efectiva real do Reino Unido. Em terceiro lugar, relaciona-se a taxa de inflação com a incerteza da política económica no rescaldo da votação de 2016 no Reino Unido para deixar a UE. Concluímos que os nossos resultados emíricos são consistentes com as conclusões da literatura, sugerindo que o indicador de estabilidade política e o índice de incerteza da política económica explicam flutuações de longo prazo na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio. O valor da taxa de inflação aumenta devido aos choques na incerteza da política económica, enquanto a moeda britânica deprecia-se devido aos choques de incerteza e de instabilidade.
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Šubáková, Dominika. "Caps on Loan-to-Value ratio: Can they reduce housing bubble and credit growth?" Master's thesis, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-347801.

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An increasing trend of using macroprudential instrument, caps on loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, requires a full understanding of how the instrument works in practice. As the empirical research is still scant, this thesis attempts to contribute with a new evidence on LTV effectiveness in context of six developed economies, namely Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania. To achieve this objective we analyse the impact of caps on LTV on credit growth, mortgage credit-to- GDP ratio and price growth. LTV limits are not a harmonised measure and its national-level implementation includes numerous specificities that can hinder cross-country comparisons. As a result, this thesis proposes a construction of LTV index reflecting specific aspects of the measure. Using the LTV Index we confirmed a slowdown of credit, mortgage and price growth. JEL Classification E44, E51, E52, E58, G21 Key words caps on loan-to-value ratio, maximum LTV ratio, macroprudential policy, credit-related instruments, LTV Index, house price growth, credit growth, financial stability.
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Books on the topic "Political stability index"

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Aleksanyan, Arusyak, and Ashot Aleksanyan. Political Stability Challenges in the EEU countries: Political Factors Index. YSU Publishing House, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46991/ysuph/978580842510-1.

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This book analyses procedures for ensuring Eurasian Economic Union political stability and promoting Eurasian integration. The political factors of stability and new integration agenda of the EEU member states have been comparatively analyzed by the application of the methodology of the Stability Index of Political System with careful consideration of continually improving the context of legal obligations and harmonizing interstate relations. The book covers a comprehensive study of a number of factors determining the political stability of the EEU member states within 2000-2019. In-country and Crosscountry analyses have been conducted within the framework of methodology of the Stability Index of Political System. This book is intended to be used by scholars, experts and students at universities and research centers.
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Stewart, Patrick, and Brookings Institution, eds. Index of state weakness in the developing world. 2008.

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Joyner, Christopher C. The Persian Gulf War. Greenwood Press, Inc., 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9798400696251.

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Although the stability of the Persian Gulf region has been of rising importance since World War II, it was during the 1980s, when the Iran-Iraq War threatened to upset the balance of power in the region, that its importance became even more magnified. This collection of essays surveys the current state of that region, placing into clearer perspective the political, security, and diplomatic dimensions of the recently ended war. By reevaluating the political landscape of the Gulf, the book produces a gauge for better assessing those factors and forces that affected the conflict's outcome and that will continue to influence future political and security developments in the region. The volume begins with an introduction by the editor that examines the geography of the Gulf and the primary geopolitical factors that influenced perceptions of the region during the war. The essays are then divided into two sections covering Strategic and Political Dimensions and Diplomatic and Legal Dimensions. Topics covered in the first section include the roots of the crisis, Soviet, Israeli and Arab Gulf states' interests in the conflict, U.S. policy in the region, and the role of U.S. military forces. Section two discusses the reflagging of Kuwaiti tankers, the United Nations' involvement, and the cease-fire negotiations. The book concludes with a selected bibliography and an index. This study will be an important resource for courses in political science, diplomacy, and Mid-East history, as well as a significant addition to both public and university libraries.
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Book chapters on the topic "Political stability index"

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Dharavat, Nagaraju, Suresh Kumar Sudabattula, and Naresh Kumar Golla. "Optimal Integration of Distributed Generators and Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in the Distribution System Using Voltage Stability Index and Political Optimization Algorithm." In Intelligent Systems for Smart Cities. Springer Nature Singapore, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6984-5_31.

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"Index." In Political Stability and Development. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781685851514-016.

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"Index." In Democracy Without Consensus: Communalism and Political Stability in Malaysia. Princeton University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400871612-026.

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Vishnoi, Goysha, Rishank Narang, and Anushree Ganguly. "Impact Assessment of Macroeconomic Elements on India's ESG Index." In Advances in Human Resources Management and Organizational Development. IGI Global, 2024. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-6617-2.ch002.

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The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) index performance and key macroeconomic variables in the context of India, focusing on factors like foreign direct investment, inflation, exchange rates, and economic and political stability. The methodology includes a comprehensive analysis of these relationships and their impact on sustainable business practices. Statistical analysis is performed using EViews Student version 12. The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models, to model and quantify the impact of foreign direct investment, inflation, exchange rates, and political and economic stability on ESG index values. In addition, the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) test is used to assess the stability of the regression model over time. The results of the study will provide investors with valuable information on how to incorporate sustainability issues into decision-making processes.
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Malkov, Sergey, Stanislav E. Bilyuga, and Jamilya Musieva. "Life Quality Index." In History & Mathematics: Political, Demographic, and Environmental Dimensions. Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2024. https://doi.org/10.30884/978-5-7057-6354-2_04.

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It is quite natural that in the current global transition fr om the ‘era of growth’ to the ‘era of stability’, the importance of qualitative changes in all spheres of life is increasing. It is indicators of the quality of life in different countries of the world that play an important role among the indicators characterizing these changes. Quality of life depends on material, social and psychological factors. Taking into account the existing approaches to determining the quality of life, the authors make an attempt to create an integrated index that considers both subjective (psychological) and objective aspects of its assessment. The idea that the higher the quality of life, the more basic material, social, and spiritual needs are met, is used as a methodological basis for the construction of the index. When constructing the index, Malkov et al. use Maslow's theory of the ‘pyramid’ of needs (the first, basic, hierarchical level within the ‘pyra-mid’ is physiological needs, the last level is the need for self-actualization). For each type of needs, indicators characterizing the degree of their satisfaction (or, conversely, dissatisfaction) have been selected. The paper contains a description of the methodology used and some calculation results.
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Bergström, Villy. "Political Instability, Quality of Governments and Growth." In Government and Growth. Oxford University PressOxford, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198290377.003.0003.

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Abstract Researchers studying the relationship between political instability and growth have to tackle two major issues. First, how to define political instability. Second, does political stability foster growth or vice versa, or both? Political instability can be measured in two different ways. The first uses some index of socio-political unrest The second approach focuses on the frequency of government changes, namely on executive instability.
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Lindvall, Johannes. "Sweden: Stability without Europe1." In The Euro at 10. Oxford University PressOxford, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199208869.003.0016.

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Abstract For more than three decades, ever since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971–3, Sweden has faced a strategic political and economic choice: to align its economic policies with the European core—represented by the ‘Snake’ (1972–9), the European Monetary System (1979–99), and the Euro Area (1999 onwards)—or to develop its own macroeconomic policy regime. Sweden made brief attempts to participate in both the Snake (in 1973–7) and the EMS (as a de facto member in 1991–2, when the krona was unilaterally pegged to the ecu). However, on both occasions the country ended up in economic crisis after a few years, and politicians abandoned the ‘European’ strategy in favour of other arrangements: a trade-weighted exchange-rate index (1977–91) and a floating exchange rate (1992 onwards).
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Emin Benli, Hande. "Impacts of Economic and Institutional Dynamics on New Media Applications Penetration." In Research Anthology on Macroeconomics and the Achievement of Global Stability. IGI Global, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-7460-0.ch046.

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New media applications become vital in order to compete as a country and as human beings. Despite the positive impact and increasing global usage of new media applications, some countries have low new media applications penetration when others have high. This should be analyzed and evaluated within the countries' own macroeconomic and institutional dynamics. Dynamic motives as institutional, macroeconomic, infrastructural, and political factors heavily divined and also easily damage the current and future conditions of the countries. This work conceptually and concretely investigated the role of specific factors. Macroeconomic factors are determined as population, GDP growth rate, and population rate of the countries. Institutional factors are evaluated through political stability index, rule of law index, and civil liberties index of each sample country. Infrastructural factors, business environment, and investments were analyzed with looking at international internet bandwidth per internet users and competitiveness data for countries.
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Barış, Serap. "The Impact of Globalization on External Debts." In Research Anthology on Macroeconomics and the Achievement of Global Stability. IGI Global, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-7460-0.ch075.

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In this chapter, the answer to this question has been researched theoretically and empirically. KOF Globalization Index has been used as the measure of globalization unlike the empirical literature that explores the relationship between globalization and external debt. In the study where panel data analysis method has been used, the findings show that there is a positive relationship between KOF Globalization Index and external debt in developing countries. When it is examined from the perspective of the sub-indexes of globalization, it is seen that the economic globalization index is positively related to external debt. Social and political globalization has no effect on external debts. Impact of the control variables used in the analysis on external debts is significant and negative. From this, it can be said that general globalization and economic globalization have increased the external debt of the nations.
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Pachiyappan, Sathish, Jabez J. P., Shylaja H. N., John Paul Raj V, and Saravanan Vellaiyan. "Assessing the Role of Trade Openness, FDI, and Political Stability on Sustainable Development." In Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies. IGI Global, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-9979-5.ch008.

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The study tries to investigate the long run and short run relationship between trade openness (TO), political stability (PO), and FDI on sustainable development of select developed and developing nations. Time series data from 1995 to 2021 of about 25 economies—10 developed economies and 15 developing economies—was collected and analyzed using Phillips Perron Fisher panel unit root test, panel auto regressive distributed lag (PARDL) model, and panel fully modified least squares/fully modified OLS. From the result, it found that FDI and TO are positively contributing to sustainability development index (SDI) in developing countries rather than the developed countries in the long run. In addition to this, changes in the SDI score is significantly influenced by the present and past import and export activities in developed as well as developing economies in the short run.
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Conference papers on the topic "Political stability index"

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Almula-dhanoon, Mufeed. "Nexus Between Political Stability and Economic Growth– Evidence from Middle East Countries." In 3rd International Conference on Administrative & Financial Sciences. Cihan University - Erbil, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24086/afs2020/paper.283.

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There is much research that has discussed the relationship between political stability and economic growth, but only a few have attempted to explore the causal relationship between them. This paper aims to examine the causative relations between political instability (measured by the government stability index), and economic growth for fourteen countries in the Middle East for the period 1984-2017. The methodology based on the application of Granger Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) method for the purpose of analyzing the causal relationship between the two variables. The empirical results show that there is no evident on causal relation between political stability and economic growth.
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Haydaroğlu, Ceyhun. "Political Economy of Russia’s Voting Power on Eurasian Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00635.

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The relationship between economy and politics shows itself explicitly while governments are determining and implementing national and international economic policies. In democratic societies voting power, which means that economical and political units uses against one another in decision making mechanisms, shapes stability and/or unstability. It can be explained that a government, which is structured by the sovereignty of a single party in a parlament, has a monopoly power. Putin, has an important voting power in both The Council of The Federation and State Duma. The confidence through this voting power, while national economic and political equlibrium is provided, in international context, stable and strong policies are followed. Russia, increases the pressure and makes its economical and political power apperant on the eurasian countries, especially which were under its’ authority before. In this context Russia’s voting power calculated seperately for all election periods by Normalized Banzhaf Index. According to this, the effect of today’s Russia’s dominance on the Eurasian countries has been analyzed within the boundaries of political economics dicipline. In consequence of the analysis; it is indicated that, there is a linear relationship between the Russia’s voting power and economical stability, and Russia’s efficieny on the eurasian countries gradually increases. The most important feature of this study, which makes it differentiated form others, is making political economy of Russia’s efficiency on the eurasian countries within the context of political economics literatüre by the voting power perspective, besides cultural, historical and social factors.
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Ambarkov, Nikola. "THE EFFECTIVE NUMBER OF PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES AS AN ASSUMPTION OF THE STABILITY OF THE REPRESENTATIVE BODY. THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MACEDONIAN ASSEMBLY IN THE PAST MORE THAN THREE DECADES OF POLITICAL PLURALISM." In SECURITY HORIZONS. Faculty of Security- Skopje, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.20544/icp.8.1.23.p31.

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Even before the formal negotiation process of the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM) for membership in the European Union began, the important role that the Parliament should play in this process was highlighted. The main contribution of the Parliament to the European integration process should be ensuring the sustainability of the reforms. The Assembly is the key place for organizing a dialogue between the government, the opposition, and civil society about the far-reaching goals of the reforms that will be made in the rapprochement process. And the European Commission further emphasized that it sees the national parliaments of the countries of the Western Balkans as a link between the citizens and Brussels. Without a stable, functional, effective representative body, these challenges will not be met. In every developed democracy, the problem of the relationship between the government and the political parties represented in the parliament has always been an actual issue. The increase in the number of political forces in the parliament leads to the need to form coalitions and, accordingly, the greater the fragmentation of political interests, the more difficult it is to build consensus, which should imply an agreement between influential MPs, regardless of whether they are in the majority or the opposition. Hence, the aim of this paper is an analysis of the representation of political forces in the Macedonian parliament in the last ten election cycles through the “index of the effective number of parties” as a tool, designed to consider the problem of balance between the representation and effectiveness of the elected bodies and their dependence from the electoral mechanisms. For this purpose, first, in a theoretical sense, the typologies of party systems and the index for the effective number of parties (developed by Estonian political scientists Laakso and Taagepera) will be reviewed. Then, with the help of this index, will be determined the number of effective parliamentary parties in the past ten parliamentary compositions in RNM. The RNM is very convenient for such an analysis because in the country’s three-decade plural history different electoral models were applied – in the parliamentary elections in 1990 and 1994, the majority, in 1998, there was a mixed (parallel) model, and since 2002, a proportional model has been applied.
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Gerni, Mine, Ömer Selçuk Emsen, Dilek Özdemir, and Özge Buzdağlı. "Determinants of Corruption and their Relationship to Growth." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00406.

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Corruption defined as the exploitation of the public institute for personal benefit has displayed itself in many societies in different ways throughout the history. Lack of information regarding presence and pervasiveness of corruption in central planning economies has been removed as a result of a transition to free market economies and the phenomenon of corruption has begun to be examined through diverse angles. Thus, in this study, the determinants of corruption were investigated and corruption-growth relationship was examined between 2002 and 2010. As for the parameters believed to determine corruption, openness of economy, size of the public, economic freedom, political stability, GDP per capita, urbanization growth rate, inflation, EBRD and HDI index regarding education and health were taken into consideration. Investigation of the relationship between the CPI (Corruption index) and the aforementioned variables and corruption-growth relationship were analyzed by means of panel data analysis.
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Gevindhi, Jithma, Pavani Dasanayaka, Ravindu Dewappriya, and Kasun Parinda. "Exploring Disparities in Happiness Index Rankings: A Comparative Study between Selected Countries." In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Sustainable & Digital Business. SLIIT Business School, 2023. https://doi.org/10.54389/ctdt4479.

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This study aims to investigate the impact of economic and certain social and governance factors on the happiness index, with a focus on estimating their relative contribution to disparities among groups of countries classified according to income levels (high, upper-middle, lower-middle, and low). This study employs a multiple regression technique to analyse data collected from the World Bank database and the World Happiness Report spanning the years 2010 to 2019 to compare the four groups of countries categorized by the World Bank according to their income levels of each income group. The findings of this study show that healthcare expenditure and government effectiveness increase people’s happiness in all four groups of countries. Furthermore, the findings suggest that fiscal contribution matters for people’s happiness only in high income and upper middle-income countries. Additionally, infrastructure, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence and terrorism, rule of law and voice and accountability matter for the happiness of people in lower-middle income countries. All variables, except fiscal contribution, have a significant impact on the happiness of people in low-income countries. This paper is the first that analyses how economic and certain social and governance factors relatively impact happiness of peoples in selected four groups of countries that classified according to their all four income levels. Keywords: Comparative study and Happiness
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Acar, Tuğçe, and Ebru Çağlayan Akay. "The Relationship Democracy with Health and Governance Indicators: Panel Probit Approach." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c13.02503.

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The relationship of politics with health has been documented in Greece and Rome in ancient times and has been the center of attention from past to present. The difficulty of interpreting the causal relationships between politics and democracy and outcome measures as the macro-social determinants of population health has limited the studies in the field. On the other hand, in the state-society relationship, governance and indicators representing the traditions and institutions in which authority is applied in a country are used as a tool to evaluate the tendencies of countries in the field of democracy over time.&#x0D; Accordingly, the study aims to address the issue in the relationship between democracy and health, together with governance indicators, within the framework of broader structural factors. For this aim, panel probit analysis was carried out for 144 countries between 2010 and 2018, examining the effect of explanatory variables on the probability of occurrence of the dependent variable. The limited number of studies dealing with the impact of democracy studies on the international level and over time makes the method used advantageous.&#x0D; According to the findings, the variables of freedom of expression and accountability, political stability and regulatory quality, which are among the indicators of governance, were found to be statistically significant on the democracy index, along with the variables of domestic general government health expenditures, infant mortality rate, GDP per capita, and the reasons for the results obtained were discussed. &#x0D;
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Kahky, Yara El. "DYNAMIC INTERRELATION BETWEEN STOCK MARKET INDEX, EXCHANGE RATE, T-BILLS AND POLICY RATE: THE CASE OF EGYPT 2010-2020." In BuPol London 2024–International Conference on Business, Economics & Policy, 20-21 February. Global Research & Development Services, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.20319/icssh.2024.194-195.

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A robust securities market is the engine of a country's economy. Undoubtedly, the stability and strength of a country's financial intermediaries and secondary market systems determine its overall economic growth. Since 2009, when the secondary market and Egypt’s EGX 30 stock index were established, the Egyptian economy has been on a trajectory of growth. However, Egypt's economy has been facing various economic and financial challenges in recent years because of political instability and social unrest, starting with the 2011 political revolution and the global external shocks such as the Corona pandemic, which negatively impacted its foreign capital inflows from the hard currency. Which made it essential and critical to ask for financial assistance from international institutions and the global financial market to maintain the country's economic wellbeing. That was linked to economic structural reform-backed loan programs and agreements with the IMF and the World Bank. Since then, it is assumed that Egypt’s economy is moving towards more cointegration with the global economy, especially after the IMF-backed loan program and the economic reforms that took place since the end of 2016 with the currency flotation regime in November 2016. Since then, Egypt’s economic stance, stock market, and foreign exchange rate turned out to be more reflective and vulnerable to the external shocks that are taking place. And with the association of the IMF loan program, the financial capital market via foreign capital inflows in the foreign portfolio investments, has played a main role in influencing the currency performance through Egypt’s equity and debt markets, which are directly and indirectly influenced by Egypt’s Central Bank monetary policy decisions. This paper helps to understand the stock, foreign exchange markets in Egypt and the impact of the government’s monetary policy on the financial market. It aims at identifying the determinants of both markets, investigates the relationship between macroeconomic variables on Egypt’s EGX30 all-share stock index and Egypt’s FX rate. The macroeconomic interrelations are examined including Egypt’s lending interest rate and the 91-day Treasury bill (T-bill) rate. By applying the cointegration model and the VECM model to test the short-run and long-run relationships between the noted variables. The findings indicated a long-run relationship between Egypt's stock market index, lending rates, and T-bills over the period from 2010 until 2016, before the currency flotation regime.
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Schütze, Florian, and Sami Diaf. "Multilingual Monetary Policy: Unfolding Language and Policy Preferences of Swiss Central Bankers." In CARMA 2024 - 6th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics. Universitat Politècnica de València, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/carma2024.2024.17405.

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Understanding monetary policy has always been of paramount economic and political importance. However, it remains a difficult task, despite transparency efforts and the regular flow of information to the public, which becomes even more complex when communication channels are multilingual. This paper examines the policy narratives of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in terms of language and policy preferences, using the corpus of speeches delivered by its members over the period 1997-2022. Using a dynamic semantic search strategy based on top2vec, the framework analysis was able to identify interlingual similarities and differences with the help of pre-trained multilingual models. The results show that the SNB's communication strategy is strongly oriented towards the objectives assigned to the central bank, with attention being paid to systemic risks, banking regulation and financial markets, which emerge as second but no less important objectives, closely linked to the international environment, in particular the Eurosystem as a strategic aspect of the stability of the Swiss franc. The results suggest that English is used exclusively to address core central banking issues (monetary policy, inflation and interest rates), while uncertainty concerns seem to be reported more in German or French. The resulting dual semantic space, consisting of embedded words and documents, yielded relevant topics with respect to the size and scope of the corpus. Furthermore, informative indices could be constructed for policy measurement, as a crisis index was found to be consistent with the business cycle fluctuations and technical recessions experienced in Switzerland over the last 25 years.
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Dias, Rui, Mariana Chambino, Paulo Alexandre, and Rosa Galvão. "From Crisis to Connectivity: Unraveling Sustainable Energy Indexes." In Ninth International Scientific-Business Conference LIMEN Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics: Integrated Politics of Research. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/limen.2023.185.

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The pursuit of financing instruments aligned with the Sustain­able Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for fostering sustainability in di­verse economic sectors. However, a significant gap exists in understanding the performance of green assets, posing challenges for investors and pol­icymakers. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationships among green energy indexes, including ISE Clean Edge Global Wind Energy, S&amp;P Global Clean Energy, S&amp;P TSX Renewable Energy and Clean Technolo­gy, and Solactive China Clean Energy, from January 2020 to October 2023. Findings reveal that ISE Clean Edge and S&amp;P Global Clean Energy indexes serve as hedging assets, while S&amp;P TSX provides coverage against specific risks. The Solactive China Clean Energy index, however, may not be suitable for hedging due to strong peer connectivity and a lack of long-term stability. In conclusion, effective alignment of sustainability goals with clean energy investment strategies requires careful consideration of asset characteristics and relationships, emphasizing diversification, and ongoing awareness of evolving dynamics for socially and environmentally responsible investors.
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Reports on the topic "Political stability index"

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Zanoni, Wladimir, Emily Díaz, Jorge Paredes, Leandro Gaston Andrian, and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado. Emerging Markets Bond Index Performance and Sovereign Default: The Case of Ecuador. Inter-American Development Bank, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0005676.

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This paper delves into the dynamic impact of Ecuador's 2008 sovereign debt default on the subsequent performance of the country's bonds, specifically as measured by the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI). Through a blend of qualitative and quantitative analyses, the paper develops a framework for understanding the interplay between macroeconomic and political fundamentals, global liquidity dynamics, and investor behaviors. Employing a synthetic control method, the study assesses the default's impact on Ecuadors EMBI performance, revealing a dynamically heterogeneous influence that fluctuates with evolving macroeconomic and political landscapes. The findings highlight the importance of considering a broad spectrum of economic variables in sovereign risk assessment, especially for economies with significant exposure to volatile commodity markets. The study offers insights into the complex dynamics governing sovereign bond markets post default, emphasizing the roles of fiscal discipline, investor communication, and political stability in mitigating sovereign risk.
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Ocampo-Gaviria, José Antonio, Roberto Steiner Sampedro, Mauricio Villamizar Villegas, et al. Report of the Board of Directors to the Congress of Colombia - March 2023. Banco de la República de Colombia, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-jun-dir-con-rep-eng.03-2023.

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Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3
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