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1

El, Baraka Hamza, and Abdelali Fadlallah. "Political stability, investement and economic growth: Empirical study on africa." African scientific journal Vol 3, N13 (2022): 063. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6983767.

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<strong>R&eacute;sum&eacute; </strong> La stabilit&eacute; politique a un r&ocirc;le tr&egrave;s important dans le processus de d&eacute;veloppement &eacute;conomique d&#39;un pays. L&rsquo;&eacute;tude de l&#39;effet de la stabilit&eacute; politique sur la croissance &eacute;conomique est une des priorit&eacute;s structurelles que ce soit au niveau acad&eacute;mique, politique ou soci&eacute;tale. L&#39;int&eacute;r&ecirc;t de ce travail est de d&eacute;terminer l&rsquo;impact de la stabilit&eacute; politique sur la croissance &eacute;conomique. En utilisant l&#39;estimateur syst&egrave;me-GMM pour les mod&egrave;les de donn&eacute;es de panel dynamiques sur un &eacute;chantillon de 48 pays africains, pour une p&eacute;riode de 20 ans entre 2000 et 2020. Ce document d&eacute;bouche sur les principaux r&eacute;sultats suivants : la stabilit&eacute; politique est une variable essentielle qui d&eacute;termine la croissance, l&#39;effet de la stabilit&eacute; politique sur la croissance est statistiquement significatif, et enfin, l&#39;investissement dans un environnement politiquement stable a un impact positif sur la croissance. <strong>Mots cl&eacute;s&nbsp;: </strong>Afrique, stabilit&eacute; politique, croissance &eacute;conomique, Indice de stabilit&eacute; politique, Test d&rsquo;Hausman, Econom&eacute;trie des donn&eacute;es de Panel. <strong>Abstract </strong> Political stability has a very significant role in the economic development process of a country. The study of the effect of political stability on economic growth is one of the structural priorities whether it be at the academic, political or societal level. The interest of this work is to determine the impact of political stability on economic growth using the system-GMM estimator for dynamic panel data models on a sample of 48 African countries, for a 20-year period between 2000 and 2020. The main results of this paper are that political stability is a key variable determining growth, that the effect of political stability on growth is statistically significant, and that investment in a politically stable environment has a positive impact on growth. <strong>Keywords: </strong>Africa, political stability, economic growth, political stability index, Hausman test, panel data econometrics.
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2

Muhamad Ferdy Firmansyah, Nanang Rusliana, Haikal Zulian Maulana, Sri Rahmi Nuraini, and Muhamad Ridho. "THE ROLE OF GDP PER CAPITA, ECONOMIC FREEDOM INDEX AND POPULATION GROWTH TO POLITICAL STABILITY IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES." Sunan Ampel Review of Political and Social Sciences 2, no. 2 (2023): 97–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.15642/sarpass.2023.2.2.97-117.

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This study aims to examine the role of economic growth, the index of economic freedom, and the population on political stability. Political stability is one of the factors that can determine the direction of development and economic growth towards the creation of prosperity. Politically stable countries can carry out better economic development. This research contributes to look at the factors that can support political stability in Southeast Asian countries. This study uses secondary data originating from the World Governance Indicator, World Bank Development Indicator and Heritage Foundation in the 2011-2020 period. This study was conducted in Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The research method used is panel data regression. The results show that GDP Per capita and economic freedom index is a significant effect to political stability. On the other side, population growth has not significant impact to political stability. This proves that every country that has good political stability is supported by stable guaranteed economic freedom, and a controlled GDP per capita.
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3

Wibowo, Muhammad Ghafur. "Political Stability and Human Development in The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries." Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Islam 9, no. 3 (2023): 4110. http://dx.doi.org/10.29040/jiei.v9i3.10262.

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In many Muslim countries, there are dynamics in political stability and security issue. This study examines the relationship between political stability and human development in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. The political stability variable comes from the governance index published by the World Governance Indicator (WGI), which measures political stability, absence of violence, and terrorism. Secondary data on the Human Development Index (HDI) variable comes from the World Bank. This study analyzes 50 OIC member countries for 2003-2021 by employing the Granger causality method for panel data. The results show a bidirectional causality between the political stability index and the human development index in all OIC member countries. However, in countries with a very high HDI, the relationship between the two variables is unidirectional. In contrast, in the group of countries with a high and low HDI, the two variables have no connection.
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4

Uzair Ahmad, Muhammad Junaid Aslam, Hamza Masood, and Dr. Sher Ali. "Does Political Instability cause and affect Macroeconomic instability in Pakistan?" Critical Review of Social Sciences Studies 2, no. 2 (2024): 598–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.59075/0crq2461.

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This study is intended to examine the cause and effect of political instability on macroeconomic instability in Pakistan over the period of 1993-2023. As the nature of the data is time series therefore stationarity testing is necessary and ADF and PP tests are used for the said purpose. ARDL is employed to tests the required impact and granger causality to get the required objective. Result of the ARDL model reported that Inflation rate and Unemployment rate negatively and significantly influenced Political stability in long-run. Besides this, ECM is applied for short run effect. ECM’s result shows that Unemployment rate, Exchange rate, and Current account balance negatively and significantly influence Political stability in short-run. In the second model, the impact of Political stability variables employed Political stability &amp; absence of terrorism, Voice &amp; accountability, Regulation Quality, and Government Effectiveness on Macroeconomic instability. ARDL model result indicated that Political stability &amp; absence of terrorism, Voice &amp; accountability, and Government effectiveness have negative and significant impact on macroeconomic crisis index. Bound test result shows long-run relationship existence among variables. Besides this, ECM model shows that Political stability &amp; absence of terrorism, Voice &amp; accountability, Regulation Quality, and Government Effectiveness negatively and significantly influence macroeconomic instability. Beside this granger causality test was applied to test causal relationships among variables. The test found that Macroeconomic instability unidirectional granger cause Political stability significantly. Furthermore, Political variables index and Inflation rate show bidirectional causality. Unemployment rate unidirectional causes Political variables index. Similarly, current account balance is unidirectional granger causal political index. On the other hand, only Voice &amp; accountability shows unidirectional causal relationship with Economic variables index.
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5

Kumar Dahal, Arjun, Ganesh Bhattarai, and Prem Bahadur Budhathoki. "Does Political Stability Matter to the Profitability of Banks?" Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks 8, no. 2 (2024): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.61093/fmir.8(2).1-14.2024.

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This study examines the impact of net interest margin, non-interest income, non-performing loans, and Political Stability Index on the banks’ profitability regarding return on assets in developing Asian countries, focusing on how political stability affects the bank’s profitability. The secondary data from 14 developing countries used in this study are collected from the World Bank and World Financial Studies Report. The dataset includes 154 data points spanning from 2012 to 2022, focusing on 14 underdeveloped countries of Asia. Exploratory and analytical research designs are utilized. Data are analyzed by using EViews 12. Econometric tools such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root testing, Fisher-Johnsen combined co-integration test, panel vector error correction model, and Wald test investigate the relationship between response and predictor variables. The net interest margin, non-interest income, non-performing loan, and Political Stability Index are jointly integrated to determine the bank’s profit of developing countries of the Asia continent. Interest margin, non-interest revenue, non-performing loans, and the Political Stability Index all show a 38.6 percent variance in bank profit. It has been discovered that for every unit that rises in net interest margin and Political Stability Index, the bank profitability of developing Asian countries increases by 0.4867 and 0.2221 percent, respectively. Non-interest income has little bearing on the profitability of banks. Meanwhile, non-interest income exhibits minimal influence, suggesting a need for a strategic focus on interest margin enhancement and fostering political stability to optimize banking sector profitability in the region.
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6

Eliza Meiyani, Delila Putri Sadayi, and Fadhil Hayan Mochammad. "COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS PRACTICES OF POLITICAL STABILITY IMPLEMENTATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA." MORFAI JOURNAL 5, no. 1 (2025): 209–21. https://doi.org/10.54443/morfai.v5i1.2545.

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Stability is a condition of a system whose components tend to fall into, or return to, an established relationship. Stability is the same as the absence of fundamental or chaotic changes in a political system, or changes that occur within agreed or predetermined boundaries. Development requires security and stability. The development itself must also include security and stability, even the development of security and stability is carried out together with development in other fields. This study uses descriptive qualitative methods, with data collection techniques in the form of literature studies by looking at previous studies, as well as online news as a supporting source. From the data obtained, it will be processed by linking it with the theories that have been previously designed. The approach to political stability as a form of government resilience can be seen from the government management system related to the economy, social, and state security, thus creating political stability in it. Singapore's government tends to have good governance so that it affects the level of the economy and the stability of the country itself, in contrast to Thailand and Myanmar which have a fluctuating index. Especially Myanmar, which has the smallest index for 10 years below the index of 20. This is influenced by the leadershipofr of the warring parties so that it has an impact on coups that often occur.
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7

Svoboda, Ivo, Olena V. Novakova, Olena B. Balatska, Olena V. Karchevska, and Valentyn S. Tulinov. "Political Extremism in Modern Democratic Transformations." Cuestiones Políticas 39, no. 70 (2021): 504–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3970.30.

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Modern political transformations involve free choice of ideology, ability to communicate with society and maintenance of their political preferences. Political struggle often leads to radical action and political extremism. The aim of this study involved an analysis of political extremism that occurs in modern democracies, and identification of the main factors underlying the development of political extremism. The determinants of the political stability/extremism are analysed based on the algorithm of hierarchical clustering. It is proved that 26 European countries studied in the work can be grouped into four clusters, which are characterised by the number of parties of extremist ideology in the national parliaments of European countries; Elite Quality Index (EQx); the Freedom in the World Index; Political Stability and Absence of Violence Index, which is part of The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). It is revealed that today ideological trends of authoritarian populism, conservatism and extremism are spreading in European countries. Cluster analysis has shown that the political extremism is influenced by the level of quality of national elites, the development of fundamental rights and freedoms, the political stability, and the absence of violence. Further research should focus on econometric simulation of factors shaping political extremism through economic development indicators.
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8

Yevdokimov, Yuri, Leonid Melnyk, Oleksii Lyulyov, Olga Panchenko, and Victoria Kubatko. "Economic freedom and democracy: determinant factors in increasing macroeconomic stability." Problems and Perspectives in Management 16, no. 2 (2018): 279–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(2).2018.26.

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The main goal of the article is to analyze the role and influence of economic freedom on macroeconomic stability. For this purpose, the authors used the integrated index of economic freedom, calculated by the Heritage Foundation and Democracy Index. It is noted that this index indicator was calculated by the experts from the World Bank using the index of voice and accountability. In the paper, the authors used the multinational panel dataset for 11 countries of the EU for the purpose of checking the correlation between economic freedom, democracy and macroeconomic stability. It should be highlighted that the abovementioned 11 countries are related by the fluctuation of economic growth during the transformation process (1996–2016) from communist party to the democracy and political pluralism. In addition, the authors proposed to add the indicators of political stability and trade openness, which allowed to take into account implementation of flexible macroeconomic instruments, including monetary policy, which towards increasing the economic growth, employment and financial development of the countries. The findings are directed received using the regression equation with fixed and random effects showed the high level of correspondence of the model used with the original observations. Despite the chosen approach to estimate the macroeconomic stability, the findings showed that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of economic freedom and democracy on macroeconomic stability.
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9

Dahal, Arjun Kumar, Ganesh Bhattarai, and Prem Bahadur Budhathoki. "Nexus Between Political Stability and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study From Nepal." WSB Journal of Business and Finance 58, no. 1 (2024): 62–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/wsbjbf-2024-0007.

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Abstract This study examines the impact of the political stability index, including inflation rate and gross capital formation growth, on Nepal’s economic growth. This study uses secondary data from the World Bank, covering 27 annual data points from 1996 to 2022. Descriptive and exploratory research designs are used. Some statistical and essential econometric tools like graphs, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, Johnsen co-integration test, vector error correction model, and Wald test are used in the study. The independent and dependent variables exhibit long-term cointegration. The preceding year’s political stability has a favorable influence on current economic expansion. One percent improvement in the previous year’s political stability index led to a 0.1896 percent increase in economic growth. One percent increase in inflation results in a 0.1884 percent decrease in economic growth in Nepal. Similarly, 84.96 percent of the variation in economic growth is influenced by factors such as past economic growth, political stability, inflation, and the expansion rate in gross capital accumulation over an extended period. The short-term economic growth of Nepal is influenced by factors such as the previous year’s economic growth, political stability index, and growth in gross capital formation. Nevertheless, the inflation rate does not statistically explain short-term economic progress. To develop sustainable economic growth in Nepal, it is crucial to undertake critical policy initiatives such as enhancing the political stability index, encouraging capital formation, and efficiently managing inflation.
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10

Arjun Kumar, Dahal, Budhathoki Prem Bahadur, and Bhattarai Ganesh. "Nexus between Unemployment, Income Inequality, Political Stability, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of the Nepalese Economy." Valahian Journal of Economic Studies 15, no. 1 (2024): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/vjes-2024-0001.

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Abstract This study aims to investigate the influence of political stability, unemployment, and income inequality on the economic growth of Nepal while also exploring the reciprocal impact of economic growth, unemployment, and political stability on income inequality within the country. It only uses secondary data from various World Bank reports and Nepal's economic surveys. It only covers 32 data points spanning from 1991 to 2022. The descriptive and exploratory research designs are used in this study. Simple statistical tools like correlation analysis, Unstandardized and standardized regression analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), residual statistics, histogram, and scatterplot for residual analysis are used in this analysis. Unemployment has negative and political stability positively impacts economic growth in Nepal. One percent increase in unemployment results in a 1.920 percent decrease in economic growth. Likewise, one percent increase in the political stability index results in a 0.804 percent increase in economic growth in Nepal. Unemployment hurts more on economic growth than income inequality in Nepal. Unemployment, political stability, and GDP growth are individually and jointly affected by income inequality in the nation. Political stability and economic growth decrease income inequality, but unemployment increases income inequality in the Nepalese economy. One unit increase in the political stability index and economic growth results in -4.356 and -0.117 unit decrease in income inequality in Nepal. The political stability index has a multiplier effect in decreasing income inequality. Unemployment causes income inequality. One unit increase in unemployment results in a 1.121 unit increase in income inequality. Unemployment has a multiplier effect on income determination in Nepal. About 39.7 percent variation in economic growth is determined by political stability, unemployment, and income inequality, but 46.7 percent in income inequality is determined by unemployment, economic growth, and political stability. Policymakers should consider a holistic approach that addresses income inequality, unemployment, and political stability to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth. The abstract is not a substitute for the introduction.
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11

BABARINDE, Gbenga Festus, Olusegun Adegoke ADEWUSI, Haruna USMAN, and Abubakar BAKO. "THE CALM-DOWN EFFECT: GOOD GOVERNANCE’S ROLE IN STEMMING THE TIDE OF CORRUPTION IN NIGERIA." Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law 33 (2025): 122–29. https://doi.org/10.47743/jopafl-2024-33-8.

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Employing Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality technique, this study examined the relationship between public governance and corruption in Nigeria during the period, 1996-2022. In line with ex-post facto research design, secondary data (on yearly basis) on governance and corruption were obtained from Worldwide Governance Indicators and Transparency International respectively. The six governance indicators examined are control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability/absence of violence, voice and accountability, rule of law, and regulatory quality, while corruption was measured using corruption perception index. Empirically, this study found that the existence of a unidirectional causality running from control of corruption-to-corruption perception index in Nigeria. This implies that good governance through the instrumentality of control of corruption is germane to stemming the tide of corruption. Likewise, there is a unidirectional causality flow from political stability to corruption perception index in Nigeria which suggests that political stability/absence of violence is instrumental to stemming the tide of corruption. Further evidence from causality test reveals that political stability had a one-way causality to control of corruption in Nigeria, which implies that to reinforce control of corruption as a governance instrument for stemming the tide of corruption; political stability is key. Moreover, voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and rule of law had a unidirectional causality with corruption perception index in Nigeria, thus suggesting the reinforcing role of regulatory quality, rule of law; and voice and accountability in promoting political stability. The study concludes that political stability/absence violence, and control of corruption are vital public governance measures for stemming the tide of corruption in Nigeria, thus indicating the ‘calm-down’ effect of good governance on corruption. It is therefore recommended that Nigerian government should intensify the tools of public governance in terms of control of corruption, and political stability, as well as voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and rule of law, in stemming the tide of corruption in Nigeria.
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12

Lim, Alviyandi, and Nuning Trihadmini. "ANALISIS PENGARUH TERORISME, FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR, DAN STABILITAS POLITIK TERHADAP VOLATILITAS INDEKS SAHAM DI 3 NEGARA ASEAN + AS." Media Ekonomi 29, no. 2 (2022): 113–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/me.v29i2.10736.

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This study aims to analyze the effect of terrorism activity, exchange rate volatility, and political stability on stock index volatility, with a sample of four countries, namely: Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and the United States. This analysis is carried out by combining the GARCH-PANEL model, with an observation period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2017. The results of the study show that terrorism activities, exchange rate fluctuations, and political stability have a significant effect on capital market volatility. Among these variables, political stability has the greatest influence, followed by terrorist activity and lastly, exchange rate volatility. Terrorist activities have a negative impact on the stock index, because it causes an unfavorable investment climate so that the volatility of the stock index increases.
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13

Nabil, Myvel. "The Effect of Political Risk on Financial Stability in MENA Region." International Journal of Economics and Finance 16, no. 10 (2024): 82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v16n10p82.

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This study investigates the impact of political risk, represented by political index for each country, on the financial stability in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which is divided into three groups according to the level of income during 2009-2021. Financial stability is measured by a Z-score and an aggregate banking stability index. This has been applied on 9 countries using panel data analysis. The findings reveal that political risk has a significant negative effect on financial stability partially, most notably on the Z-score side. Macroeconomic factors, including broad money, domestic credit to private sector by banks, GDP growth, income, and market capitalization of listed domestic companies, are also identified as determinants of financial stability. The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the impact of political risk on financial stability in MENA region over 13 years. Practical implications for regulators, policymakers and investors are discussed, highlighting the need for a better understanding of political, economic and health risks and their effect on stock performance.
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14

Şeker, Hilal. "Relationship Between Political Instability And Misery: A Structural Var (Svar) Analysis." Alanya Akademik Bakış 9, no. 2 (2025): 392–403. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1526556.

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Political instabilities increase fragility of economies and tarnish country welfare by decreasing their economic growth because they cause economic uncertainties. The objective of the present study was to reveal the effect of political stability on public welfare for Turkish economy. To that end, the relationships between political instability and misery index was investigated through the Structural VAR (SVAR) model for the Turkish economy for the period covering 2002-2022. The findings reveal statistically significant and positive relationships between political stability and misery index in the long run. For the period under analysis, it can be interpreted that the increase in political stability alone is not sufficient to reduce the welfare level of the people. On the other hand, positive and statistically significant relationships are found between the misery index and growth. This finding can be interpreted as the economic growth in the period in question did not lead to an increase in welfare.
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15

Khan, Bhola. "Food Security Index For Economic Community of West-African States (ECOWAS)." Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Administrative Sciences 2, no. 1 (2021): 47–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.47631/jareas.v2i1.197.

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Purpose: In this article attempt is made to develop a composite food security index for some selected countries of the Economic Community of West-African States (ECOWAS), e.g. Nigeria, Niger, Benin, and Ghana. The study also aims to study the stability property of the indicators of composite food security index. Approach/ Methodology/ Design: For constructing a composite food security index for ECOWAS, one can use the basic methodology already developed by IFAD but in a modified form. This study is also based on IFAD methodology but with one more additional variable that is political stability index and assigned weight on the basis of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Findings: This composite index is an improvement over all the other food security index developed by others eminent economists and institutions from time to time. This index consists of six indicators such as food availability, food production, self-sufficiency of food, inverse relative price index, child survival index, and political stability to construct the composite food security index of ECOWAS. Political stability is an additional indicator in the index of ECOWAS. With the help of this index, the trends, stability and situation of food security index in region are discussed and analyzed from 2001 to 2018.After careful analysis of composite food security index of ECOWAS, one can find out that It has quite impressive and improving gradually. Practical Implication: This study provides strong suggestion about how these five indicators of composite food security index provide an overview for the selected countries to secure their level of food security in their respective country. Originality/Value: After the careful analysis of the collected data, it can be concluded that the composite food security index plays an important role to understand whether food security index is improving in respective countries or not.
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Abdel Hakeem Tariq Mutaib Al-Saeed, Mufeed Almula-Dhanoon. "Nexus Between Political Stability and Economic Stability: Case Study of Arab Countries." Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Management 10, no. 13s (2025): 732–49. https://doi.org/10.52783/jisem.v10i13s.2156.

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The research aims to Explain and measure measure the impact of political stability on economic stability and identify the direction of the reciprocal relationship between the two, focusing on 15 Arab countries during a period marked by significant political and economic transformations from 1996 to 2022. The researcher employed a model that considers the influence of political stability on financial stability, using the Political Stability Index from the World Bank (2022) WGI and the GDP growth rate as a representative indicator of economic stability, sourced from the World Bank (2022) WDI. The study also accounted for other variables that influence political and economic stability, incorporating them as control variables in the model. Population growth (annual %) Average years of schooling for the population is 25+, Control of Corruption, Gross capital formation (% of GDP)The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach to analyze both short- and long-term relationships and the "Toda-Yamamoto" method was employed to test causality between political and economic stability. The results indicate a positive long-term relationship between political and economic stability, with causality tests confirming a bidirectional relationship. Finally, the findings suggest that political stability is a crucial factor in achieving economic stability in Arab countries and vice versa, indicating that improvements in either can strengthen the other.
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Ullah Khan, Kifayat, Farman Ullah Khan, Assad Ullah Khan, Sami Ullah Khan, and Shalil Zaman. "The Power of Human Capital and Political Stability: Unlocking Pakistan’s Economic Potential." Journal of Asian Development Studies 14, no. 1 (2025): 129–38. https://doi.org/10.62345/jads.2025.14.1.9.

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Indeed, investing in human capital and ensuring political stability are critical for unlocking Pakistan's economic development. They boost economic progress, attract investments, and create opportunities by leveraging the country's youth and innovation potential. Overall, these factors ensure sustainable development and resilience against global issues. Therefore, the current study investigates the impact of human capital, the polity index, and government expenditure on Pakistan's economic growth. To evaluate it empirically, the researcher utilized the time series data ranging from 1985 to 2023 on human capital, labor force participation, foreign direct investment (FDI), Polity index, Government expenditure, and economic growth. GDP growth is dependent while selecting the other mentioned variables as independent. After confirming that all the variables are first difference stationary, the Johansen co-integration approach has been applied to detect links between variables. Results reveal that all the variables like human capital, employed labor force, FDI, polity index, and public expenditure positively impact Pakistan's GDP growth. They said empirical investigation finds that human capital, labor force, polity index, FDI, and public expenditure can increase economic development in Pakistan. Overall, these factors collectively add to sustainable economic progress and resilience.
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Masih, Zahid, and Hira Irshad. "Economic Determinants of Stock Market Volatility in Pakistan: Exploring the Moderating Impact of Political Stability." iRASD Journal of Economics 6, no. 3 (2024): 838–50. https://doi.org/10.52131/joe.2024.0603.0243.

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The study examines the effect of the variable’s inflation, global oil price index price, and foreign remittances on stock market volatility represented through movement in the KSE 100 index, focusing on political stability as a moderator. The empirical evidence suggests that inflation and the global oil price index reflect insignificant direct influence on the stock market volatility. However, their influence becomes significant in the presence of political stability. Political stability increases investor confidence, reduces risk perception, and mitigates the risk of macroeconomic shocks that lead to reduced stock market volatility. The findings emphasized the critical role of governance in fostering the resilience of the financial market, especially for emerging economies like Pakistan. Future studies could probe further into the sectoral dynamics and consider other alternative variables as moderators, such as institutional quality, to provide detailed insight into the behaviors of stock market performance in developing economies tend to exhibit. These findings have many implications for policymakers, emphasizing governance reforms, stabilization policies of the macroeconomy, and diversification of markets to ensure the financial sector's stability.
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Pandey, Prakash. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Index: A Study of NEPSE." Economic Review of Nepal 3, no. 1 (2020): 41–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ern.v3i1.61746.

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This research, conducted to examine the macroeconomic determinants of the stock index of Nepal, has applied the Engle-Granger cointegration to test the long-run relationship with two controlled variables—political stability index and capital mobilization through the primary market—the error correction model to determine the short-run relationship, and the Granger-causality test with lag 2 to check the causality of the variables. The data were collected from the secondary source from the years 1998 to 2020 with a sample size of n = 22 years. In the long run, broad money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, gross national income, political stability index, and capital mobilization through the primary market had statistically significant relationships with the NEPSE index; however, the relationship became positive only with the broad money supply, political stability index, and capital mobilization through primary market. Although the relationship became negative with the inflation rate, it was insignificant in the long run. In the short run, all the variables became statistically significant except for the exchange rate. The coefficient of error correction term (-1.0396) indicates that the deviation converges at the rate of 103.96% every year. The Granger-causality test showed no much stronger relationship among the variables: a unidirectional causality from broad money supply to the NEPSE index, a bidirectional causality in the case of capital mobilization through the primary market and NEPSE index, a bidirectional causality from GNI to NEPSE index, and NEPSE index not granger causing GNI.
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20

Karateev, Artem. "Stability and economic freedom in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Quantitative analysis." Eastern Review 8 (December 30, 2019): 149–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/1427-9657.08.06.

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Exploring the stability of states and political systems is of interest to scientists and politicians all around the world. One of the most important questions in this field is the question of the relationship between stability and freedom.&#x0D; This paper considers the relationship between economic freedom and stability with regards to the example of countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The study uses quantitative analysis and the operationalisation of economic freedom through the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF); furthermore, stability is studied through the Fragile States Index (FSI), and the Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Index (PSI).&#x0D; The analysis reveals a strong correlation between economic freedom and stability. According to linear regression models obtained by the author, economic freedom has a strong impact on stability. Models show that most of the components of IEF increase stability, whilst some components decrease it. This means that the same factors affect economic freedom and stability in different ways. In particular, taxes have a very positive effect on stability. At the same it is obvious that taxes reduce economic freedom. This fact allows us to resolve the existing contradictions among politicians and scientists, who differently assess the impact of economic freedom on stability. It may be stated that whilst economic freedom has in general a strong positive effect on stability, it can also have a negative effect.
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Eştürk, Özlem, and Nilcan Mert. "Analyzing The Determinants of Agricultural Value Added in EU15 Countries and Turkey by Panel Data." International Journal of Social Sciences 6, no. 26 (2022): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.52096/usbd.6.26.1.

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Countries have to deal with the sustainability of food supply and demand due to factors such as rapid increase in demand for agricultural food products on a global scale and climate change. Therefore, productivity and agricultural value added products have become strategically important to ensure food security. Developed countries provide a significant amount of value added in the agricultural sector. The aim of the study was to determine primary factors affecting the agricultural value added production in Turkey and EU15 countries and to determine how Turkey differs from these countries as a developing country. In this context, the long-term impact of government effectiveness, political stability and gross domestic product on agricultural value added has been investigated for the EU15 countries and Turkey for the period of 2002-2019. Results indicated that Turkey had a lower agricultural value added amount than the EU15 countries. While a statistically significant and positive relationship between agricultural value added and agricultural GDP and Political Stability Index, a statistically significant and negative relationship between agricultural value added and Government Effectiveness Index were observed. Keyword: agricultural value added, government efficiency index, political stability index, panel data analysis JEL Classification: C23, , H50, O13, Q18
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Blanco-González, Alicia, Camilo Prado-Román, and Francisco Díez-Martín. "Building a European Legitimacy Index." American Behavioral Scientist 61, no. 5 (2017): 509–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002764217693282.

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This article outlines an approach to building a country-level legitimacy index designed specifically for European Union member states. The index allows intercountry as well as longitudinal comparisons. Changes over time reflect varying levels of confidence in the political system and may serve as leading indicators for differences in the economic, social, and political stability of member states. Source data for the index are derived from the European Social Survey, taken between 2002 and 2012 in 35 countries. The index is built around three dimensions (legality, justification, and consent). Results from the index vary among member states but, overall, show a tendency toward diminishing legitimacy. Citizens trust their police forces and laws, but are dissatisfied with institutions and the economy. Moreover, they feel increasing distance from their leaders, their representative bodies, and the effectiveness of political institutions. These trends highlight the need for public–private efforts to increase the legitimacy of European Union member states.
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Handoyo, Sofik, and Fury Khristianty Fitriyah. "Control of Corruption, Regulatory Quality, Political Stability and Environmental Sustainability: A Cross-National Analysis." Journal of Accounting Auditing and Business 1, no. 2 (2018): 26. http://dx.doi.org/10.24198/jaab.v1i2.18344.

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The study aims to reveal the correlation of governance attributes of the government with state’s environmental sustainability. The governance attributes of government in this study refer to the index of control of corruption, regulatory quality, and political stability. Meanwhile, the state’s environmental sustainability refers to the index of the state’s environmental performance. The period of investigation is the year of 2014 and involves 177 countries. Person correlation analysis was applied in this study to identify the degree of correlation between independent variables (control of corruption, regulatory quality, and political stability) dependent variable (environmental sustainability). Independent variables were measured using the World Governance Index (WGI) published by the World Bank. Environmental Performance Index (EPI) issued by The Yale Center for Environmental Law &amp; Policy (YCELP) was proxied for measuring environmental sustainability. The results indicate that the state’s control of corruption, the state’s regulatory quality and state’s political stability are positively associated with the state’s environmental sustainability. The correlation coefficients are 0.230 (=0.01), 0.193 ( =0.01), and 0.167 ( =0.01) respectively. Even though there is a positive correlation between a state’s governance attributes and state’s environmental sustainability, however, the degree of correlation is weak. It implies that the state’s governance is not a powerful instrument to predict the state’s environmental sustainability.
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Dujic, Ivan. "The political (in)stability of the central American countries." Medjunarodni problemi 72, no. 4 (2020): 733–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/medjp2004733d.

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The paper analyses a correlation between the political (in)stability of the Central American countries and the inequality of the countries in relation to the development of capitalism from the aspect of international politics and economics in the case of the Central American countries. Such a status of the Central American countries is opposed to the fact that they have achieved equality in public international law. The Introduction also indicates that political stability depends on functional public authorities, and the success in macroeconomic policy. The main part of the paper deals with the factors which led to political (in)stability during the Cold War and afterwards. The internal factors include lack of communication and trust between government and opposition, weak democracy, serious violations of civil and political rights, dangerous activities of paramilitary forces, economy depending on illicit drug dealers, the underdeveloped legal system as well as the lack of modern, equipped police. The above shortcomings refer especially to Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. This is verified by their ranking in the Human Development Index. On the other hand, countries like Belize, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama are among higher-ranked countries. The most important external factor is the US economic and political impact. In that sense, capitalism can be seen as a recognisable stabilising force due to its ability to adapt itself to occasional economic and political crises. However, China?s growing economic, technical and technological influence on the world could determine a different course of capitalism?s development, as opposed to the US efforts to maintain a leading position in defining the role of capitalism in international relations. The author concludes that these countries can get free from the US influence and become politically stable, provided that China determines the course of future capitalism?s development.
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Efe, Elif, and Üzeyir Aydın. "The Nexus Between Defense Expenditures, Geopolitical Risk, Political Stability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye." Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, no. 84 (April 30, 2025): 283–301. https://doi.org/10.51290/dpusbe.1631179.

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Defense expenditures are an item that exists cyclically throughout the world in every period and covers most of the public expenditures of countries. The effect of defense expenditures on inflation, employment, balance of trade balance, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index within the scope of Türkiye has been examined. The findings, while the causality relationship from defense spending to balance of trade, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index is determined and there is a positive relationship from defense spending to foreign trade balance and a negative relationship to geopolitical risk index, there is a cointegration towards gross domestic product. Empirical findings support the military Keynesian approach in the long and short term, indicating that the increase in defense expenditures in Türkiye increases exports and the balance of trade. Increasing R&amp;D activities and implementing policies that encourage investment in higher-density defense industry products will increase positive externalities in the balance of trade. Long-term, the rise in defense spending allows one to draw the conclusion that the country tends to lower geopolitical risks by boosting confidence in its political, economic, and security realities and lowering the threat of terrorism.
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Shnekat, Baker, and Ghazi Al-Assaf. "The Impact of Political Stability on the Effectiveness of the Early Warning Systems in Predicting the Financial Crises: The Case of Jordan and Qatar." International Journal of Financial Research 11, no. 4 (2020): 398. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n4p398.

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The research aims to identify the impact of political stability in determining the effectiveness of early warning systems in predicting financial crises. The research applied a standard descriptive approach.In general, when comparing the two countries before including the model for economic variables the results showed that the nature of the impact of economic variables is different as the index of the financial crisis in Jordan is affected by the import of goods and services while the most influential indicators in the early warning model for the occurrence of the financial crisis in Qatar is the index of exporting goods and services on the basis that the system Qatari financial is very sensitive to the subject of export of gas and oil. Also, the results showed that there is a very significant impact of political stability on the financial crisis, which is greater than the impact of economic indicators, and if the two countries differed in which indicators for political stability have the greatest impact on the occurrence of the financial crisis, in Jordan the most influential indicator was the government effectiveness variable in Qatar, the regulatory quality index was the most influential.
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Felice, Carmelo, and Gabriel Alfredo Ruiz. "Argentine Chaotic Term Length Series in an American Historical Context." Journal of Advanced Research in Social Sciences 6, no. 3 (2023): 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.33422/jarss.v6i3.937.

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The political stability of a government system is crucial for achieving social, economic, and cultural growth of a people. Among other things, political stability depends on the norms that come from a state of rights. Several metrics have been proposed to measure political stability, such as the weighted sum of the number of revolutions or the index defined by the World Bank comprising 72 variables, which include subjective concepts, numerical parameters, and other variables. Therefore, it must be applied carefully to individual countries or to compare countries. No definitions in the related literature directly consider cultural factors and are limited to quantifying their practical effects, such as numbers of strikes or manifestations against a government. Concepts such as contempt for authority have not been directly quantified. In this part, we present two more indicators that account for the contempt for authority and permit a rapid quantitative and visual analysis of the political stability of a country or province throughout its history. They are, the social stability index that allows the general quantification of the social stability level at a historical moment, and the phase planes that graphically show the predominant chaotic system. These tools manifest the behavior patterns that affect the political stability of a country or province. Finally, we perform an in-depth analysis of the indicators for the Republic of Argentina between the 16th and 21st centuries, with the historical context of the more important Spanish and British colonization of the American continent. The results indicate 1) the permanence of socially toxic behavior patterns in Argentina and other Latin American countries, 2) inherited cultural causes could explain the high political instability in Argentina over the last 500 years and 3) a succession of singles term length by rulers during decades could be used to stabilize a country.
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Malik, Abida, and Muhammad Meraj. "Impact of Taxation and Political Stability on Economic Growth of Pakistan." Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 12, no. 3 (2024): 2591–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.52131/pjhss.2024.v12i3.2468.

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This study investigates the impact of taxation and political stability on economic growth in Pakistan. Analyzing GDP data from 1979 to 2019, measured in US dollars and converted to PKR, we assessed political stability using the Polity IV index and included both direct and indirect taxes in our examination. We formulated two hypotheses: one addressing the impact of political stability on GDP and the other examining the influence of taxation on GDP. A range of methodologies, including unit root tests, ARDL (AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) modeling, and error correction models, was employed to analyze both short-term and long-term effects. Our findings indicate a significant positive relationship between economic growth and both taxation and political stability. Effective direct and indirect taxation policies contribute meaningfully to GDP growth, while a stable political environment is crucial for economic development. To enhance these effects, policymakers should focus on developing progressive taxation strategies and ensuring political stability. This study provides essential insights for policymakers, economists, and government officials to improve tax collection practices and foster an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth.
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Çela, Arjona, and Eglantina Hysa. "Impact of Political Instability on Economic Growth in CEE Countries." Economy of Region 17, no. 2 (2021): 582–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-2-16.

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сPolitical instability is often considered to have a negative influence on economic growth. Hence, the study aims to examine whether instability of the political environment (measured by the political stability in- dex and duration of the chief executive in the office) significantly influences economic growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The methodology used is a fixed effects model for panel data analysis where the dependent variable is the real growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The data covers the period from 2006 to 2016 for 13 CEE countries. Additionally, the study considered other macroeconomic variables, such as investment, inflation, human capital, trade openness, etc. The research findings indicate that the political stability index has a positive effect on economic growth, as expected and predicted in the literature. However, the indicator of the years the chief executive has been in the office has shown a negative effect. This effect appears to be weakly significant only for the second variable. These findings allowed us to conclude that the political stability index positively influences economic growth, while the years the chief executive stays in the office has a negative effect. Frequent changes in the cabinet can actually have a positive impact in transition countries characterised by corruption, meaning that the long stay of a chief executive in the office can lead to power abuse.
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HUDSON, VALERIE M., DONNA LEE BOWEN, and PERPETUA LYNNE NIELSEN. "Clan Governance and State Stability: The Relationship between Female Subordination and Political Order." American Political Science Review 109, no. 3 (2015): 535–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055415000271.

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We propose that the relative influence of clans is an important explanatory factor producing significant variation in state stability and security across societies. We explore the micro-level processes that link clan predominance with dysfunctional syndromes of state behavior. Clans typically privilege agnatic descent from the patriline and are characterized by extreme subordination of women effected through marriage practices. Particular types of marriage practices give rise to particular types of political orders and may be fiercely guarded for just this reason. We construct and validate a Clan Governance Index to investigate which variables related to women's subordination to the patriline in marriage are useful to include in such an index. We then show that clan governance is a useful predictor of indicators of state stability and security, and we probe the value added by its inclusion with other conventional explanatory variables often linked to state stability and security.“I against my brothers; my brothers and I against my cousins; my cousins, my brothers, and I against the world” (Bedouin saying)“At the heart of tribes, to varying levels, is a severe patriarchy” (Jacobson 2013, 58).
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Ahmad, Fawad, Michael Bradbury, and Ahsan Habib. "Political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees: evidence from Pakistan." Managerial Auditing Journal 37, no. 2 (2021): 255–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/maj-06-2020-2715.

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Purpose This paper aims to examine the association between political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees. The authors use various measures of political connections and uncertainty: political connections (civil and military), political events (elections) and a general measure of political stability (i.e. a world bank index). Design/methodology/approach The authors measure the association between political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees. Audit fees reflect auditors’ perceptions of risk. The authors examine auditors’ business risk, clients’ audit and business risk after controlling for the variables used in prior audit fee research. Findings Results indicate that civil-connected firms pay significantly higher audit fees than non-connected firms owing to the instability of civil-political connections. Military-connected firms pay significantly lower audit fees than non-connected firms owing to the stable form of government. Furthermore, considering high leverage as a measure of clients’ high audit risk and high return-on-assets (ROA) as a measure of clients’ lower business risk, the authors interact leverage and ROA with civil and military connections. The results reveal that these risks moderate the relationship between political connection and audit fees. Election risk is independent of risk associated with political connections. General political stability reinforces the theme that a stable government results in lower risks. Originality/value The authors combine cross-sectional measures of political uncertainty (civil or military connections) with time-dependent measures (general measures of political instability and elections).
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Abdou, Joseph. "A stability index for local effectivity functions." Mathematical Social Sciences 59, no. 3 (2010): 306–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.12.003.

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YILDIRIM, Hakan, and İnan AKDAĞ. "ARE POLITICAL STABILITY AND DEMOCRACY EFFECTIVE ON FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT? EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES." Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 8, no. 3 (2023): 578–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1331138.

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The interaction between institutional phenomena such as political stability and democracy and the financial system is an important issue that has been researched for many years. For this reason in this study, the effects of political stability and democracy on the financial system in Sub-Saharan African countries during the period from 2002 to 2019 are investigated. In the study, in which the Two-Stage System Generalized Moments Method estimator is used, the dependent variable is the financial institutions development index. The explanatory variables of the study are the indicators of political stability and democracy. The growth in GDP per capita, trade openness, inflation rate, foreign direct investment and urban population ratio are the control variables. The analyzes display that democracy and political stability have positive effects on financial development. In terms of control variables, while the inflation rate has a negative effect on financial development, the economic growth and trade openness affect financial development positively.
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Likarchuk, Daria. "Political Terrorism: Forms of Manifestation." International Relations: Theory and Practical Aspects, no. 6 (December 9, 2020): 32–43. https://doi.org/10.31866/2616-745x.6.2020.218770.

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One individual&#39;s terrorist policy can turn into terrorism for the whole world. Terrorism has become one of the global problems of today. It affects all spheres of existence of modern society, especially the security, stability and functioning of political institutions of the state, the stability of a multilevel system of socio-political and international relations. The study of political terrorism is extremely important for modern Ukraine, where the problems of violence, along with economic, social, spiritual, ideological and others, do not allow the country to develop in the direction of increasing social security, constantly turning it to daily survival and confrontation, reducing the security of our country. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly clarify the trends in the development of the modern social process, to predict the dangers and threats of armed political confrontation, and to use extremist violence &ndash; terrorism. This, in turn, is almost impossible without constant clarification of the methodological foundations of the theory of political terrorism. Solving this problem requires deep theoretical knowledge, insight into the essence and content of terrorism. At the same time, the role of political science analysis is growing. The destruction of a stable political environment must be seen as a strategic goal of political terrorism. Based on the unbalanced structure of society, it seeks to force society to function, to develop in the direction set by terrorist forces. Political terrorism has become a destructive force that generates social, political instability internationally. Europe&#39;s entry into a complex, contradictory socio-political process associated with a radical change in the vectors of political development in the XXI century, directly reflected on the level, dynamics, direction of political terrorism, as well as &ndash; on various forms of its implementation. The political life of Europe has absorbed a whole spectrum of political terror.
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McMillan, Jacquelyn D., and Neil Abell. "Validating the Level of Stability Index for Children." Research on Social Work Practice 16, no. 3 (2006): 326–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1049731505284864.

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Nairobi, Nairobi, and Fadeli Yusuf Afif. "Daya Saing dan Foreign Direct Investment." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 11, no. 1 (2022): 52–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/jep.v11i1.447.

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abroad and domestically. Incoming investment is affected by a country's daytime strength. Widespread investment encourages more competition and corrupt practices as many investors want to reduce the bureaucracy they face. However, in the investment market a high level of corruption also makes a country's economy unattractive. This study aims to analyze the effect of a country's competitiveness on the entry of Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN. The variables used in this study are foreign investment, competitiveness, Corruption Perception Index, and political stability. The analytical method used is the Random Effect Model. This shows that state power is able to encourage direct foreign investment in a positive direction, as well as the Corruption Perception Index where the handling of the level of corruption will encourage the entry of Foreign Direct Investment. Political stability in this study does not have a significant effect, meaning that political shocks do not interfere with the entry of Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN in the period 2010 to 2020.
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Ganchev, Gancho, Vladimir Tsenkov, and Mariya Paskaleva. "Corruption in Bulgaria: Context, Factors and International Comparison." Economic Thought journal 68, no. 6 (2024): 587–620. http://dx.doi.org/10.56497/etj2368601.

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This study is focused on defining the reasons, factors, and consequences of corruption in Bulgaria in a comparative context. A strong non-linear interplay is demonstrated between political stability and corruption perceptions. Analysing the complex interaction between the dynamics of the Corruption Index and the three indicators of quality of public governance, we admit that the indicators are directly related to the effectiveness of government policy in terms of suppressing the potential for corruption, on the one hand, and to the public perception of government effectiveness, on the other. In countries demonstrating high anti-corruption scores, the Political Stability and Control of Corruption indicators have a direct impact on the Corruption Index. In low-rated countries, including Bulgaria, no direct influence on corruption is observed for any of the three indicators of quality of government.
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Torres, Michelle, and Steven S. Smith. "Revisiting Bedrock Values: The Stability and Predictive Power of the Society Works Best Index." American Politics Research 46, no. 2 (2017): 308–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673x17733797.

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In their 2011 piece, Smith et al. argue that there is a set of fundamental or bedrock values that predict ideology and that are strongly influenced by genetics. These values are considered universal, stable, and less susceptible to environmental changes. Smith et al. propose a scale to measure such values: the Society Works Best Index (SWBI). This is an important contribution, but the SWBI requires further evaluation. Using novel panel data, we evaluate the measure, improve on the empirical application with a national panel, and suggest improvements in the scale. We find that the SWBI is no more stable than other measures of ideology and that the observed changes are attributed to measurement error and environmental factors. Furthermore, like many other political attitudes, its predictive power is mediated by levels of political interest.
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Michael Olayinka Gbadebo. "Terrorism and global security: Cyber threats, governance, and counterterrorism strategies." International Journal of Applied Research in Social Sciences 7, no. 3 (2025): 227–51. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijarss.v7i3.1863.

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This study examines the complex motivations behind terrorism and evaluates the effectiveness of international counterterrorism efforts using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), World Values Survey (WVS), and World Bank Governance Indicators. Logistic regression and cluster analysis reveal that no socio-political factors—such as trust in government, religious values, or political ideology—significantly predict religiously motivated terrorism, though patterns emerge in political ideology and governance. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analyses indicate a post-9/11 surge in international counterterrorism collaborations, while domestic U.S. peace stability shows limited change. Panel data analysis highlights governance quality and economic stability as key factors in reducing terrorism, with economic stability emerging as the strongest predictor (p &lt; 0.001). Based on these findings, the study recommends prioritizing governance reforms, integrating economic development into counterterrorism strategies, expanding efforts beyond military interventions, and strengthening intelligence-sharing mechanisms to enhance global counterterrorism effectiveness. Keywords: Cyber, Terrorism, Counterterrorism, Governance, Economic Stability, Global Peace Index, Data Privacy.
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Janková, Zuzana, and Petr Dostál. "Utilization of Artificial Intelligence for Sensitivity Analysis in the Stock Market." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 67, no. 5 (2019): 1269–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201967051269.

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The main contribution of this paper is to perform sensitivity analysis using artificial intelligence methods on the US stock market using alternative psychological indicators. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model applies investor sentiment represented by VIX index and monitors the impact of economic optimism, political stability and control of the corruption index on the S&amp;P 500 stock index. Alternative psychological indicators have been chosen that have not been explored in the context of stock index performance sensitivity. Investors primarily use fundamental and technical analysis as a source to determine when and what to buy into an investment portfolio. However, psychological factors that may indicate the strength of reaction to the market are often neglected. Fuzzy rules are determined and tested using a neuro-fuzzy inference system and then the rules are reduced by fuzzy clustering to improve performance of ANFIS. The membership function is defined as a Gaussian function because it has the least RMSE value. The sensitivity analysis confirmed that there is a significant impact of the political stability index and the economic optimism index on the S&amp;P 500 performance. Conversely, the sensitivity analysis, unlike the previous study, did not confirm the strong impact of VIX on equity index performance. Results indicate that incorporating psychological indicators in macroeconomic models leads to better supervision and control of the financial markets.
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Sweidan, Osama D. "Economic Sustainability of the MENA Region." Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 65, Issue 1 65, no. 1 (2019): 71–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.65.1.71.

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Abstract This paper calculates an index measuring economic sustainability for the mainstream economy in the MENA region during the period 1999&amp;amp;#8211;2016. Our approximation says that a large value of the index indicates more stress on the economy or low sustainability and vice versa. We also explore some macroeconomic variables as potential determinants of economic sustainability. We employ the panel data analysis, in particular the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). Our results show that economic development, trade openness, and political stability encourage economic sustainability. In contrast, government expenditures and control of corruption hinder the sustainability of the economy. Our paper suggests that policymakers should concentrate on economic development, enhance the trade openness, and create political stability environment to strengthen economic sustainability. JEL classifications: I31, O11, Q01 Keywords: Economic sustainability; Economic development; Panel analysis; FGLS; MENA region
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Dzihny, Izzatu, Muhammad Ghafur Wibowo, and Akmal Ihsan. "Macroeconomics, human development and political stability: evidence from OIC countries." Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan 24, no. 2 (2023): 390–411. http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i2.19509.

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This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on the Human Development Index (HDI) in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries with political stability as the moderating variable. The GMM (Generalized Method Moment) dynamic panel and the MRA (Moderated Regression Analysis) will be used for determining the type of moderation needed as analysis techniques. In the first section, the findings state that inflation and unemployment have no effect on HDI, This is due to the fact that inflation and unemployment are very dependent on global economic fluctuation. Meanwhile, trade openness has a significant positive effect on HDI and foreign direct investment has a significant negative effect on HDI. This can add to the evidence that a high level of trade openness can support HDI values in OIC countries. Trade Openness can strengthen the economy, education, and health simultaneously by increasing prosperity through increased demand, supply, and services in numerous sectors. Secondly, the value of the moderator variable (political stability) on the relationship between unemployment and HDI demonstrates that political stability acts as a "Quasi Moderator" which means that political instability can exacerbate the negative influence of unemployment on HDI in OIC countries. This research has implications for the importance of cooperation between OIC countries in various fields, especially in increasing trade, investment, job creation and good governance to support the expansion of human development in OIC nations and to build sustainable prosperity.
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Baghlaf, Naif, Rozina Shaheen, and Lindos E. Daou. "Explaining REIT returns in emerging economies: A Fama-French approach with foreign investment and political stability." International Journal of ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES 12, no. 1 (2025): 7–18. https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2025.01.002.

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This study examines the applicability of the Fama-French 3-factor model to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in emerging economies using monthly data from January 2016 to December 2023 for 23 REITs across five emerging markets. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) (system) approach assesses the impact of 12 explanatory variables, including traditional factors like market, value, size, and momentum premiums, as well as emerging market-specific factors such as the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Currency Index and Bloomberg Commodity Ex-Agriculture Index. Control variables like political stability, foreign direct investment, and portfolio investment are also included. The results show that value premium, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and commodity prices positively influence REIT excess returns, while momentum premium and political instability negatively affect them. These findings highlight the combined importance of traditional and emerging market-specific factors, emphasizing the critical role of stable political conditions for REIT performance. This research contributes valuable insights for investors and policymakers in understanding REIT dynamics in emerging markets.
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Rashid, Mamunur, Xuan Hui Looi, and Shao Jye Wong. "Political stability and FDI in the most competitive Asia Pacific countries." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 9, no. 02 (2017): 140–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-03-2016-0022.

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Purpose Competitiveness is vital to attracting FDI into a country, which has led us to investigate the determinants of FDI in the top 15 most competitive countries in the Asia Pacific region. Design/methodology/approach We have analysed political stability alongside other commonly studied determinants of FDI. We have employed a panel data fixed-effect model on a 14-year sample data (2000-2013) involving the top 15 most competitive Asia Pacific countries. The Global Competitiveness Index was taken as the yardstick to identify these countries. We have used fixed effect, GMM-system, and Panel ARDL tests for robust results. Findings The GDP, trade openness and political stability positively influenced FDI inflows while inflation rate negatively impacted FDI inflows in the selected countries. Political stability was the most influential variable in the presence of other indicators. GDP, openness, and political stability exhibit significant long-run relationship with FDI inflows. Research limitations/implications To increase FDI flows, regulators should focus on building the image of the country, and possibly the region, by ensuring stable economic and political environment, maintaining macroeconomic stability through bi- and multi-lateral arrangements with neighbouring countries. Originality/value Regional relationships with neighbouring countries can be considered as the building blocks for attracting FDIs. These relationships can be strengthened based on liberal trade policies, openness in capital control, and cooperation in terms of political actions. One such recent issue in regional political cooperation include actions to reduce terrorism and corruption that help boost the confidence of the investors.
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45

Maoz, Zeev, and Zeynep Somer-Topcu. "Political Polarization and Cabinet Stability in Multiparty Systems: A Social Networks Analysis of European Parliaments, 1945–98." British Journal of Political Science 40, no. 4 (2010): 805–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123410000220.

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Bargaining theory predicts that as a political system’s polarization increases, parties have fewer opportunities to form coalitions without resorting to elections, inducing constraints on the management of political crises. This study tests the hypothesis that political polarization has a positive effect on cabinet duration, and draws on Social Networks Analysis to conceptualize and measure political polarization. Combining information about party ideology, inter-party distances and party size, this polarization index measures the structure of political systems in terms of possible and actual coalitions, and identifies proto-coalitions ex ante. The propositions regarding the effect of the bargaining environment on cabinet survival are tested with data covering sixteen European states in 1945–99, and are fairly robustly supported. The measure of political polarization outperforms alternative measures of this concept.
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46

Ali, Rafaqat, and Rana Ejaz Ali Khan. "Socioeconomic Stability and Variability in Stock Market Prices: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange." Asian Journal of Economic Modelling 6, no. 4 (2018): 428–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2018.64.428.440.

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The study attempted to identify the factors that responsible for variability in stock market prices in Karachi Stock Exchange particularly focusing on socioeconomic stability in the country. The socioeconomic stability is measured by an index including social, economic and political dimensions of stability. Annual time series data for the years 1973-2012 is utilized, and Phillips &amp; Perron (PP) test is employed for stationarity. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity and Generalized Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH/GARCH) technique are used for volatility in stock market prices. For the structural breaks, Chow test is applied. Finally, the study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship. The results indicate that inflation, exchange rate, and foreign direct investment positively influence the stock price volatility. Socioeconomic stability negatively affects the volatility in stock market prices in both short-run and long-run. The country should improve socioeconomic stability by attaining economic, social and political standards in the country.
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Constantino G. Medilo, Jr. and Ruth F. Medilo. "Social Perspective of Human Development." Journal of Educational and Human Resource Development (JEHRD) 5 (December 10, 2017): 34–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.61569/wfb1ke17.

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Recently, there exists a change in the focus of studies on the factors which determine human development, and this change suggests that there are other social factors which may contribute or influence the pace of progress. There is insufficient literature linking religiosity, happiness level, the political stability of the society, and the perceived corruption of public office to development. This study claims that human growth indicated by the Human Development Index (HDI) is not just affected by life expectancy, participation in education, and income but also by other social factors like religion, happiness, corruption in the government, political stability of the society. Employing the descriptive correlational method in determining the relationship of religiosity, happiness, corruption, and political stability to human development, we found that happiness has the most significant effect on human development with an F value of 4.76 and p-value of 0.041. We conclude that a happy society is a developed society.
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Nor, Alias Mat. "Impaired Financing Determinants of Islamic Banks in Malaysia." Information Management and Business Review 7, no. 3 (2015): 17–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v7i3.1149.

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Despite commendable growth of Islamic banking on a macro level, impaired financing is an issue among Islamic banks at the micro level. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis shows large credit risk was largely attributable to staff inefficiency. This study investigates the moderating effect of staff efficiency on determinants of credit risk or impaired financing of sixteen Islamic banks in Malaysia over the 2005-2013 periods. The determinants include new variables such as political stability index and corruption index besides GDP, inflation, finance to deposit, loan loss provisions, liquidity, capital, net interest margin, profitability, loan growth and net charge offs. The study highlights new findings where impaired financing reduced with higher political stability index and corruption index. Loan loss provision has significant positive whilst loan growth has negative impact on impaired financing. Staff efficiency significantly moderates the impaired financing relationship with capital ratio, profitability and loan growth. This relationship yields model fit of 0.889. The results support Resourced - based Theory and provide statistical evidence of the importance of staff efficiency in managing banks’ credit risk. None of the external factors had significant influence on impaired financing, which statistically proved that the profit and loss sharing concept of Islamic banking provides effective tool to mitigate external risks.
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Handoyo, Sofik. "The Role of Public Governance in Environmental Sustainability." Jurnal Ilmiah Peuradeun 6, no. 2 (2018): 161. http://dx.doi.org/10.26811/peuradeun.v6i2.255.

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The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between public governance and environmental sustainability performance. The public governance in this study refers to indicators namely public accountability, government effectiveness, control of corruption, regulatory quality and political stability and rule of law. Meanwhile, environmental sustainability refers to country’s environmental performance. The study was driven by phenomena that countries located in the same categorization of Geographic but have different environmental sustainability performance. The study involved 178 countries member of World Bank. Purposive sampling technique was used in this study. Public governance and environmental sustainability were treated as two independent variables. The degree of correlation between variables was analyzed using Bivariate correlation analysis. World Governance Index (WGI) was adopted as an approach to Public governance measurement. Environmental Sustainability was measured using Environmental Performance Index (EPI). The findings showed that Public governance indicators namely, public accountability, government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption and political stability have a positive and significant correlation with environmental sustainability performance.
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KHOKHYCH, Dmytro. "Independence of central banks: index approach." Fìnansi Ukraïni 2022, no. 5 (2022): 86–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.33763/finukr2022.05.086.

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Introduction. Central bank independence in developed economies and emerging countries requires justi?cation of its status and consolidation of responsibility for price stability in its mandate. The status of the central bank is important for impartial monetary policy decision-making. Problem Statement. Consolidation of the central bank’s mandate at the legislative level raises the problem of status quanti?cation, which means a way to quantify the status of macroeconomic policy bodies. This leads to the expansion of the powers of the central bank on the index approach basis , which demonstrates a lower level of its independence. Purpose. The inverse relationship between in?ation and the level of independence of the central bank encourages the search for alternative approaches in the context of quantifying its independence based on the index of constitutional independence, TOR index and index of political vulnerability of management. Methods. According to OECD countries, developed economies and emerging countries, the GMT index in most countries shows a fairly high ?gure. However, in practice there is a signi?cant di?erence between the formal and actual status of central banks, which a?ects the statistical signi?cance of the relationships obtained. Results. A study to quantify central bank independence based on an index approach has revealed a number of issues related to the interpretation of the central bank’s mandate, the density of the relationship between indices and in?ation rates, and the quanti?cation of legislation. In countries with weak institutions, asserting the link between in?ation and formal independence is quite complex, as opposed to the political and economic independence of the central bank. Conclusions. Addressing issues that lead to imbalances between the status of central banks and the consolidation of monetary objectives at the legislative level requires a clear de?nition of the powers and responsibilities of monetary authorities for the results of monetary policy towards achieving price stability.
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