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1

University of Texas at Austin. Construction Industry Institute. Improving Early Estimates Research Team., ed. Quantitative prediction of estimate accuracy. Construction Industry Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 1999.

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2

Hjalmarsson, Erik. Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions. Federal Reserve Board, 2008.

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3

Harris, Ian Richard. Smooth and predictive estimates for the compound Poisson distribution. University of Birmingham, 1987.

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4

Project, Central United States Earthquake Preparedness. Estimated future earthquake losses for St. Louis City and County, Missouri. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1990.

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5

Wright, D. E. Fitting predictive accident models in GLIM with uncertainty in the flow estimates. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1991.

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6

Leontaritis, I. J. A prediction error estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. University, Dept. of Control Engineering, 1986.

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7

United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency, ed. Estimated future earthquake losses for St. Louis City and County Missouri: Executive summary. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1997.

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8

Chen, S. A recursive prediction error parameter estimator for nonlinear models. University of Sheffield, Dept. of Control Engineering, 1988.

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9

Barrows, Linda H. Comparison of total body water estimates from 18O and bioelectrical response prediction equations. Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, 1993.

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10

H, Barrows Linda, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Scientific and Technical Information Program., eds. Comparison of total body water estimates from ℗£ı́O and bioelectrical response prediction equations. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Office of Management, Scientific and Technical Information Program, 1993.

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11

Brenner, Martin J. On-line robust modal stability prediction using wavelet processing. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Dryden Flight Research Center, 1998.

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12

Rick, Lind, and Dryden Flight Research Facility, eds. On-line robust modal stability prediction using wavelet processing. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Dryden Flight Research Center, 1998.

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13

Rick, Lind, and Dryden Flight Research Facility, eds. On-line robust modal stability prediction using wavelet processing. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Dryden Flight Research Center, 1998.

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14

Rick, Lind, and Dryden Flight Research Facility, eds. On-line robust modal stability prediction using wavelet processing. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Dryden Flight Research Center, 1998.

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15

Rick, Lind, and Dryden Flight Research Facility, eds. On-line robust modal stability prediction using wavelet processing. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Dryden Flight Research Center, 1998.

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16

United States. Congress. House. Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs. Directing the cooperation of certain Federal entities in the implementation of the Continental Scientific Drilling Program: Report (to accompany H.R. 2737 which on June 22, 1987 was referred jointly to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology and Interior and Insular Affairs) (including the cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). U.S. G.P.O., 1988.

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17

Technology, United States Congress House Committee on Science and. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act authorization, fiscal years 1986 and 1987: Report together with additional views (to accompany S. 817) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). U.S. G.P.O., 1985.

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18

United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., ed. Comparison of predicted and actual orbital liftetimes for the SEDS-2 mission. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1994.

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19

Laurens J. P. Van Vliet. Water erosion prediction for soils in the Peace River Region of British Columbia: Estimates using the universal soil loss equation. Research Branch, Agriculture Canada, 1989.

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20

Kuhn, Gerhard. Use of frequency analysis and the extended streamflow prediction procedure to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool of Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado. U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 1994.

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21

United, States Congress House Committee on Science Space and Technology. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977: Authorization for fiscal year 1988 and 1989 : report (to accompany H.R. 1612 ... March 16, 1987, was referred jointly to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology and Interior and Insular Affairs) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). U.S. G.P.O., 1987.

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22

Terehin, Valeriy, and Viktor Chernyshov. Efficiency and effectiveness of the penitentiary system: assessment and planning. INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1079434.

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The issues of setting goals, planning and forming a system of indicators of the effectiveness and efficiency of the penal system are considered. The criteria for determining the goals-tasks that are adequate to the public goals of the system are justified. Quantitative indicators corresponding to the criteria were developed, based on the contribution of the criminal justice System to reducing the socio-economic losses of society from recidivism. The contribution of the system is determined by changes in the criminal potential of convicted persons during the period of serving a sentence under a
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23

Bogumil, Veniamin, and Sarango Duke. Telematics on urban passenger transport. INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1819882.

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The monograph discusses the application of telematics in dispatch control systems in urban passenger transport. The role of telematics as a technological basis in automating the solution of control tasks, accounting and analysis of the volume and quality of transport work in modern dispatch control systems on urban passenger transport is shown. Analytical models have been developed to estimate the capacity of a high-speed bus transportation system on a dedicated line. Mathematical models and algorithms for predicting passenger vehicle interior filling at critical stages of urban passenger tran
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24

Cacuci, Dan Gabriel. BERRU Predictive Modeling: Best Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties. Springer, 2018.

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25

Kalitzin, Stiliyan, and Fernando Lopes da Silva. EEG-Based Anticipation and Control of Seizures. Edited by Donald L. Schomer and Fernando H. Lopes da Silva. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780190228484.003.0023.

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Early seizure-prediction paradigms were based on detecting electroencephalographic (EEG) features, but recent approaches are based on dynamic systems theory. Methods that attempted to detect predictive features during the preictal period proved difficult to validate in practice. Brain systems can display bistability (both normal and epileptic states can coexist), and the transitions between states may be initiated by external or internal dynamic factors. In the former case prediction is impossible, but in the latter case prediction is conceivable, leading to the hypothesis that as seizure onse
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26

Tayman, Jeff, and David A. Swanson. Subnational Population Estimates. Springer, 2012.

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27

Tayman, Jeff, and David A. Swanson. Subnational Population Estimates. Springer, 2014.

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28

Steinhauser, Karen E., and James A. Tulsky. Defining a ‘good’ death. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199656097.003.0008.

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Although any outcome of an advanced illness can be predicted, in palliative care settings the word ‘prognosis’ usually means the estimated time to death. Prognosis is an important but challenging set of clinical skills for palliative medicine clinicians to master. It is important because patients and families want to know what to expect, it influences clinical decision-making, and it may determine eligibility for services. It is challenging because of the inherent uncertainty of making predictions and because dying is not an easy topic to discuss. Advances in statistical computing have allowed
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29

Barbaree, Howard E., and Robert A. Prentky. Risk assessment of sex offenders. Edited by Teela Sanders. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190213633.013.21.

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This essay discusses the assessment of recidivism risk in sex offenders. It begins with definitions of critical terms and concepts. A number of approaches to risk assessment are described. Validated risk instruments are reviewed, with a focus on their reliability and accuracy in predicting recidivism. Actuarial assessment of risk is described as a two-stage process. In the first stage, offenders are assessed and assigned to a risk level or stratum. In the second stage, the probability of risk over a follow-up period is estimated based on the offender’s risk ranking. The essay discusses calibra
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30

Cheng, Russell. Finite Mixture Examples; MAPIS Details. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198505044.003.0018.

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Two detailed numerical examples are given in this chapter illustrating and comparing mainly the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) and the maximum a posteriori/importance sampling (MAPIS) methods. The numerical examples are the well-known galaxy data set with sample size 82, and the Hidalgo stamp issues thickness data with sample size 485. A comparison is made of the estimates obtained by the RJMCMC and MAPIS methods for (i) the posterior k-distribution of the number of components, k, (ii) the predictive finite mixture distribution itself, and (iii) the posterior distributions o
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31

Wyss, Max. Earthquake Risk Assessment. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190676889.013.1.

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This article discusses the importance of assessing and estimating the risk of earthquakes. It begins with an overview of earthquake prediction and relevant terms, namely: earthquake hazard, maximum credible earthquake magnitude, exposure time, earthquake risk, and return time. It then considers data sources for estimating seismic hazard, including catalogs of historic earthquakes, measurements of crustal deformation, and world population data. It also examines ways of estimating seismic risk, such as the use of probabilistic estimates, deterministic estimates, and the concepts of characteristi
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32

Wyss, Max. Earthquake Risk Assessment. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190699420.013.1.

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This article discusses the importance of assessing and estimating the risk of earthquakes. It begins with an overview of earthquake prediction and relevant terms, namely: earthquake hazard, maximum credible earthquake magnitude, exposure time, earthquake risk, and return time. It then considers data sources for estimating seismic hazard, including catalogs of historic earthquakes, measurements of crustal deformation, and world population data. It also examines ways of estimating seismic risk, such as the use of probabilistic estimates, deterministic estimates, and the concepts of characteristi
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33

Rosenberg, Paul B. Future Directions. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199959549.003.0010.

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Predicting the future of medical and psychological treatments is uncertain work at best, and the discussion below will likely cover some “promising” avenues of research that will go nowhere. But clinicians are eager to know what is coming in the near future in terms of diagnosis and treatment and we will present our best estimate of these innovations below. The reader should note in advance that our approach to cognitive impairment is in rapid flux but to depression already pretty solidly established.
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34

Predicting spatial patterns of animal pest abundance: A case study of the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Dept. of Conservation, 2004.

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35

Zealand, New. Predicting Spatial Patterns of Animal Pest Abundance: A Case Study of the Brushtail Possum (Trichosurus Vulpecula). Dept. of Conservation, 2004.

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36

Noonan, Diana. Personas Que Predicen: Estimar. Teacher Created Materials, Incorporated, 2015.

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37

Wang, Bin. Intraseasonal Modulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.616.

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The strongest Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the planet features prolonged clustered spells of wet and dry conditions often lasting for two to three weeks, known as active and break monsoons. The active and break monsoons are attributed to a quasi-periodic intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which is an extremely important form of the ISM variability bridging weather and climate variation. The ISO over India is part of the ISO in global tropics. The latter is one of the most important meteorological phenomena discovered during the 20th century (Madden & Julian, 1971, 1972). The extreme dry an
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38

Lapsia, Vijay, Bernard Jaar, and A. Ahsan Ejaz, eds. Kidney Protection. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780190611620.001.0001.

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Kidney disease is a crippling disease that affects approximately ten percent of the population worldwide, with more than 2.6 million individuals estimated to receive renal replace therapy. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is fast becoming a major public health issue even in resource poor settings, with some estimates predicting a disproportionate increase in countries such as China and India. Consequently, renal protection has become a vital and critical component of prevention. While observational data suggests that awareness remains low, the concept of renal protection is currently under-recogni
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39

Taylor, John A. British Empiricism and Early Political Economy. Praeger, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9798400621611.

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Gregory King (1648-1712) was an engraver, herald, surveyor, and Secretary to the Commissioners for the Public Accounts, but he is best known for his 1696 estimates of the wealth and population of England. Writing in 1696, but calculating for the year 1688, he put the population at approximately 5.5 million. Historians have recently doubted the accuracy of these estimates. In this book, John A. Taylor argues that King was an honest compiler of statistics, and that his eccentric calculations based on the available 1696 data were motivated by the problems he faced. Because he used only empiricism
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40

Kay, Chris, Emily Fisher, and Michael R. Hayden. Epidemiology. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199929146.003.0007.

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The prevalence and persistence of Huntington’s disease (HD) is crucially informed by the causative mutation. Diagnostic and predictive testing has enabled a new era of epidemiologic study of HD, whereby only those who carry an expanded CAG repeat are included in such measures. In Western populations, estimated prevalence of the disease is higher following the introduction of genetic testing, and prevalence may also be increasing in absolute terms. There are worldwide differences in the prevalence of HD by ethnicity and population, which may be accounted for in part by genetic diversity of the
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41

Jappelli, Tullio, and Luigi Pistaferri. The Response of Consumption to Anticipated Changes in Income. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199383146.003.0008.

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The intertemporal models studied so far postulate that people use savings in order to smooth income fluctuations, and that unless there are liquidity constraints, consumption responds little if at all to changes in income that were expected. When this major theoretical prediction is violated, researchers conclude that consumption is excessively sensitive to anticipated income changes. In this chapter we review some of the empirical approaches researchers have taken to estimate the response of consumption to anticipated income changes. We point out that empirically it is very hard to identify s
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42

McCleary, Richard, David McDowall, and Bradley J. Bartos. Internal Validity. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0007.

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Chapter 7 begins with an outline and description of five threats to internal validity common to time series designs: history, maturation, instrumentation, regression, and selection. Given the fundamental role of prediction in the modern scientific method, scientific hypotheses are necessarily causal. After an outline of the evolving definition of “causality” in the social sciences, contemporary Rubin causality or counterfactual causality is introduced. Under the assumption that subjects were randomly assigned to the treatment and control groups, Rubin’s causal model allows one to estimate the
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43

Mas, André, and Besnik Pumo. Linear Processes for Functional Data. Edited by Frédéric Ferraty and Yves Romain. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199568444.013.3.

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This article provides an overview of the basic theory and applications of linear processes for functional data, with particular emphasis on results published from 2000 to 2008. It first considers centered processes with values in a Hilbert space of functions before proposing some statistical models that mimic or adapt the scalar or finite-dimensional approaches for time series. It then discusses general linear processes, focusing on the invertibility and convergence of the estimated moments and a general method for proving asymptotic results for linear processes. It also describes autoregressi
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44

McDermott, Rose, and Peter K. Hatemi. DNA Is Not Destiny. Edited by Rosemary L. Hopcroft. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190299323.013.41.

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Genetic influences are often misinterpreted to mean that an individual with a particular genotype is inevitably predisposed to engage in a given behavior or that genetic influences operate outside of human agency and social context. This chapter undertakes a qualitative investigation of a genetically informed (MAOA) sample to illustrate the critical differences between population estimates and individual accountability. The sample includes those whose lives have revolved around violence (e.g., gang members) and those whose lives are committed to peace (e.g., Buddhist monks). It is found that g
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45

Schmidt, Alexandra, Jennifer Hoeting, João Batista M. Pereira, and Pedro Paulo Vieira. Mapping malaria in the Amazon rain forest: A spatio-temporal mixture model. Edited by Anthony O'Hagan and Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.5.

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This article focuses on the use of a spatio-temporal mixture model for mapping malaria in the Amazon rain forest. The spatio-temporal model was developed to study malaria outbreaks over a four year period in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The goal is to predict malaria counts for unobserved municipalities and future time periods with the aid of a free-form spatial covariance structure and a methodology that allows temporal prediction and spatial interpolation for outbreaks of malaria over time. The proposed structure is unique in that it is not a distance- or neighbourhood-based covariance mod
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46

Butz, Martin V., and Esther F. Kutter. Multisensory Interactions. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198739692.003.0010.

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This chapter shows that multiple sensory information sources can generally be integrated in a similar fashion. However, seeing that different modalities are grounded in different frames of reference, integrations will focus on space or on identities. Body-relative spaces integrate information about the body and the surrounding space in body-relative frames of reference, integrating the available information across modalities in an approximately optimal manner. Simple topological neural population encodings are well-suited to generate estimates about stimulus locations and to map several frames
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47

Hall, Peter. Principal component analysis for functional data. Edited by Frédéric Ferraty and Yves Romain. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199568444.013.8.

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This article discusses the methodology and theory of principal component analysis (PCA) for functional data. It first provides an overview of PCA in the context of finite-dimensional data and infinite-dimensional data, focusing on functional linear regression, before considering the applications of PCA for functional data analysis, principally in cases of dimension reduction. It then describes adaptive methods for prediction and weighted least squares in functional linear regression. It also examines the role of principal components in the assessment of density for functional data, showing how
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48

O’Mahony, Constantinos. Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: prevention of sudden cardiac death. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198784906.003.0354.

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Sudden cardiac death (SCD) secondary to ventricular arrhythmias is the most common mode of death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and can be effectively prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). The risk of SCD in HCM relates to the severity of the phenotype and regular risk stratification is an integral part of routine clinical care. For the primary prevention of SCD, risk stratification involves the assessment of seven readily available clinical parameters (age, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left ventricular outflow tract gradient, n
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49

Kucharski, Fred, and Muhammad Adnan Abid. Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon and Its Link to ENSO. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.615.

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The interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon is probably one of the most intensively studied phenomena in the research area of climate variability. This is because even relatively small variations of about 10% to 20% from the mean rainfall may have dramatic consequences for regional agricultural production. Forecasting such variations months in advance could help agricultural planning substantially. Unfortunately, a perfect forecast of Indian monsoon variations, like any other regional climate variations, is impossible in a long-term prediction (that is, more than 2 weeks or so in adva
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