Academic literature on the topic 'Present price'

Price reviews in long-term gas contracts have been part of the commercial landscape in the Australian gas market. Any industry senior executive who has been heavily involved in a gas price review, in particular a review involving a gas arbitration, usually asks themselves at the end of the process if a better way exists. How can gas price reviews be improved is the basis of this extended abstract. Analysis of the past, present and future gas price reviews assists this objective. The past considers the historical nature and the commercial philosophy of price reviews addresses questions such as: Why do we need them? What price is a price review trying to establish? What is a market price in the Australian gas market context? Do price reviews determine present or future prices ? The present considers current price reviews, covering topics such as what’s good and bad practice in today’s price reviews, including the arbitration process. The future looks issues such as the role and importance of price reviews in the next 10 years, what’s needed to make gas price reviews obsolete, how do price reviews work in a transitional market with both Australian and US oil-linked-contract prices under review and better commercial and legal concepts for future price reviews.

When adjusting product prices, marketers wish information concerning consumers' price perceptions. The present study aimed to develop an optimal pricing framework for food products by applying Weber's Law and Stevens' Power Law in psychophysics. The first phase attempted to measure the differential thresholds when magnitudes of prices were raised and lowered. The second phase was conducted to establish the psychophysical function representing perceived changes. Analysis showed consumers' differential thresholds were positively correlated with the initial price, consistent with Weber's Law. Further, participants' perceived change differed for increased and decreased prices. Products were perceived as cheaper only when medium-and low-priced products dropped dramatically in price. However, small reductions for the high-priced products were perceived as cheaper. Regardless of price changes, participants perceived products were more expensive when prices dropped by a small amount.

We assume that the call option's value is correctly priced by Black and Scholes' option pricing model in this paper. This paper derives an exact closed-form solution for implied standard deviation under the condition that the underlying asset price equals the present value of the exercise price. The exact closed-form solution provides the true implied standard deviation and has no estimate error. This paper also develops three alternative formulas to estimate the implied standard deviation if this condition is violated. Application of the Taylor expansion on a single call option value derives the first formula. The accuracy of this formula depends on the deviation between the underlying asset price and the present value of the exercise price. Use of the Taylor formula on two call option prices with different exercise prices is used to develop the second formula, which can be used even though the underlying asset price deviates significantly from the present value of the exercise price. Extension of the second formula's approach to third options value derives the third formula. A merit of the third formula is to circumvent a required parameter used in the second formula. Simulations demonstrate that the implied standard deviations calculated by the second and third formulas provide accurate estimates of the true implied standard deviations.

Historically, market situation and outlook has often included some form of price forecast. Recent volatility in agricultural commodity markets is making price forecasts challenging and at times less reliable. In addressing this price volatility, changes in agricultural markets are highlighted along with price forecasts: pre- and postincreased market volatility. Given these recent challenges, the future of Extension agricultural commodity marketing is discussed.

This paper analyzes and evaluates the oil price change on effects of China’s general price level and economic sectors’ price level by adopting the input-output price model and input-output of China in 2007. In the case of oil price rise 100%: Compare with the results over the years show that oil price impact on the whole society increased year by year, and the rate of increase present accelerated tendency; Compare with the other energy sector, the impact of oil prices level is generally lower than the price of electricity and heat levels.

The influence of electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM) on consumers’ perceptions of price, allowing for consumers having different price acceptability levels, was examined through nine online experiments. Three valences of eWOM were systematically examined: positive, negative, and inconsistent, that is, both positive and negative present in the word-of-mouth communication. When contemplating making a purchase of an item, consumers have ranges of prices that would be acceptable. It was found that eWOM was more influential on consumers’ price perceptions than the advertised price for all price acceptability levels. However, the price perception of an item was found to be less acceptable when eWOM was inconsistent compared to when eWOM was absent or was positive. Inconsistent eWOM had a negative effect on price perceptions but not as great as that when negative eWOM was present and this was consistently found to apply for all price acceptability levels. The market context for the experiments was that of a tourism service, a Group Package Tour in Japan. We present the study’s implications for practitioners in this type of market, as well as the contribution to the research literature on word-of-mouth influence on consumer response to prices.

The present study investigates the degree to which imperfect competition in the oil sector affects end retail prices. Specifically, we test how positive and negative price shocks in the oil market translate to final retail prices for petrol, diesel, and heating oil prices, focusing on the asymmetry of the price changes. We assume that the higher the level of imperfect competition, the more asymmetric the price change between the initial oil and final retail products will be. In addition, we also test the degree to which uncertainty, or oil price volatility, affects the final prices for these same products. We find that our proxy for market power does affect retail price asymmetries and that increasing volatility lowers retail price asymmetries.

In the present work, an attempt has been made to apply economic and mathematical methods for the simulation of electronic trading market operation based on price competition between e-trade companies and traditional trade enterprises. The developed price competition model based on the concept of symmetric product differentiation. The results obtained in the present investigation demonstrate that in a mixed strategy, firms sell products at different prices, depending on the price strategy or the volume release strategy. The company that sets the volume, sells more, but at a lower price than its competitor which sets prices. The influence of strategic output exceeds price influence. Thus, the company that sets prices, falls into an unfavorable situation and receives lower profits compared with its competitor with the strategy for the volume of production. The company that has decided to introduce electronic trading technology initially will bear losses.

My diploma paper is focused on description of the ways of assessing, which are used in practice. The diploma paper should also make a comparison between those assessing methods and recognise the difference between them. Next aim of my diploma paper is to shortly mention the questions of International valuation norms (standards), but only those parts, which are related with assessing of real property. Practical part of my diploma paper is especially focused on assessing of family houses by chosen assessing methods, which are: cost approach, comparison method (nenašla jsem), standard price and price at present time. Whose resultant values will be compared. Partial task is recognition how the aspect of job opportunity is influencing the price of family house, which was counted by comparison method.

The Master’s thesis „Determination of the Impact of Krnov Bypass on Prices of Detached Houses in its Close Proximity and the Effect of Traffic Diversion on Detached House Prices“ has as one’s task a determination of the influences of a by-pass road on the prices of family houses. In pursuance of this task it has been used several kinds of the valuation methods, as for example the cost approach according to the price order, the comparative method according to the price order and the comparative method Standard unit market price (non-promulgation). In the conclusion of the Master’s thesis there is a separate determination of the influence of the by-pass road on the prices of the family houses, which are located in its neighbourhood and the impact of a deflection on the prices of the family houses in Krnov city centre.

This thesis is about the economic aspects of public procurement of services through auctionsin Sweden. It focuses on two different institutions, auctions used to find foste r-parents forboarded out children in the 19th century, and auctions of cleaning service contracts in the 20 thcentury. I n both cases, the contracting entity is the municipality or its representative, thelowest bidder wins the auction, and is paid in accordance with his/her bid.In the child auctions, c hildren were allotted to foster-parents by means of an open biddingprocess, the descending English auction, where the bids were given continuously to theauctioneer. In modern public procurement sealed bids ar e used in accordance with the firstprice,sealed bid auction. The first part of this thesis is about price formation in the childauctions and a study is made of the children who were auctioned several times, indicatingasymmetric information among bidders or adverse selection in this market. These subjects arestudied using field data on 601 child auctions held in Northern Sweden during the period 1863to 1889. The empirical findings in the first paper suggest that the foster-parents had a cleareconomic motive in these auctions. The child characteristics significantly affect the amount ofcompensation paid to the foster-parent. There is also evidence that farmers preferred older,more productive children. The second paper studies whether a re-auctioned child commandeda higher or lower price than a child that was not re-auctioned. The results indicate some formof asymmetric information because foster-parents demanded a higher level of compensationfor a re-auctioned child. The results also suggest that the probability that a child was reauctionedincreased if he/she was not healthy.The third paper in the thesis discusses a kind of "paradox". Although there is a competitiveeffect on the bids in the auction of cleaning service contracts, the contracting entity has anoption, given by law, to restrict the number of bidders. In th is paper, an implementation costis introduced fo r the contracting entity to justify such a restriction. The results, based onSwedish municipality data, indicate that contract and municipality characteristics, assumed toaffect the implementation cost, affect the volume of the procurement, and the number ofbidders, but not necessarily the choice of allocation mechanism. The final paper studiesregional differences in bids, costs, and competition in municipal procurement using the samedata as in paper [3]. The results show higher estimated costs for completing the contract, butlower estimated mean bids in the major city area of Stockholm compared with the res t of thecountry. This is explained by lower profit margins and higher operational costs in the majorcity area. An analysis is also carried out of why the lowest bidder is not always the contractedbidder.

Härtill 4 delar.

digitalisering@umu

Diploma Thesis "Comparison of selected methods of valutation of a family house - type estates in Litomyšl and it's surroundings" describes the way of assesing, compares these methods and recognises the difference between them. The practical part is especially focused on assesing of choosen family houses by the cost approach, comparative public notice, comparative non-promulgation, standard price and price at present time. At the end of diploma thesis there is provided how much the aspect of job opportunities influences the price of family houses, which was counted by the comparison method.

This master´s thesis „Comparison of selected methods of valuation of the property type of family house in Telč and its surroundings” deals with the analysis of possible valuation methods and their comparing. The main objective of this thesis is to describe the methods of valuation and on the basis of selecting valuation methods prepare their confrontation. In the diploma thesis is valued ten of family houses in Telč and its surrounding, which are compared by the following methods: coast approach, comparative public notice, comparative non-promulgation method and price at present time. Part of objective this thesis is describe to the main influences acting on the standard price in the area of Telč and its surroundings.

Mestrado em Finanças
Daimler AG é uma empresa alemã centenária, que apresenta um vasto portefólio de produtos e serviços, provenientes das suas três subsidiárias - Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans, Daimler Trucks AG e Daimler Mobility AG. O Grupo segue uma sólida e bem estruturada estratégia focada nos seus consumidores, que permitiu à empresa manter-se na vanguarda desde a sua existência, com uma presença mundial e uma forte reputação no mercado. Em 2019, a Daimler AG vendeu mais de 3.35 milhões de unidades, apresentando uma quota de mercado de 3.7%. A estrutura deste projeto baseia-se nas recomendações do CFA Institute e tem como objetivo estimar o valor da ação da Daimler AG no final de 2020, concluindo com uma recomendação de compra, venda ou de manter a ação. Para chegar a esta conclusão, os métodos utilizados foram o Discounted Cash-Flow, o Adjusted Present Value, o Relative Valuation e o Dividend Discount Model. Com base no Discounted Cash-Flow, no Adjusted Present Value e no Relative valuation, foram obtidos preços-alvo superiores ao preço de fecho da ação a 19 de Setembro, de 45.5€. Para o Dividend Discount Model, as conclusões não foram consideradas relevantes, visto que o pagamento de dividendos irá ser severamente afetado nos próximos anos, como resultado da crise financeira causada pela proliferação pandémica mundial em 2020. Após estas análises e avaliações feitas da Daimler AG, foi considerada uma recomendação final de compra e um potencial de aumento de 26% para a ação da Daimler no final de 2020.
Daimler AG is a centenary German automotive company with a wide portfolio of products and services, provided from its three subsidiaries - Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans, Daimler Trucks AG and Daimler Mobility AG. The Group follows a solid and well-structured strategy focused on its customers, which allowed the company to remain at the forefront since its existence, with a worldwide presence and a strong market reputation. In 2019, Daimler AG sold more than 3.35 million units, presenting a 3.7% market share. The structure of this project follows the CFA Institute recommendations and aims to estimate the fair value of a Daimler AG share at 2020 year end, concluding with a buy, hold or sell recommendation. To achieve this conclusion, the valuation methods carried out were the Discounted Cash-Flow, the Adjusted Present Value, the Relative Valuation and the Dividend Discount Model. Based on the Discounted Cash-Flow, the Adjusted Present Value and the Relative valuation, it were obtained target prices above the closed stock price on September, 19th, of 45.5€. For the Dividend Discount Model, the conclusions were not considered relevant, since the payment of dividends will be severely affect in the following years, as result of the financial crisis caused by the global pandemic that proliferated in 2020. After the analysis and valuations made on Daimler AG, it was considered a final buy recommendation, with an upside potential of 26% for the 2020 year end Daimler share.
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Tirtas labiausiai paplitusių Lietuvoje medžių rūšių (P, E, Ą, U, B, D, J, Bt) grynų medynų auginimo derlingose augavietėse (c, d, f dirvožemio derlingumo ir N, L dirvožemio drėgnumo indeksai) ekonominis efektyvumas. Darbo objektas –ūkinių miškų labiausiai paplitusių medžių rūšių grynų medynų (P išskyrus d, f derlingumus, E, Ą, U, B, J, D, Bt) derlingose augavietėse (c, d, f dirvožemio derlingumo ir N, L dirvožemio drėgnumo indeksai) auginimo ekonominis efektyvumas, išreikštas grynosios dabartinės vertės rodikliais. Šios derlingos augavietės sudaro 44,1 proc. visų Lietuvos miškų. Tyrimų tikslas – palyginti dirbtinai atkuriamų ąžuolynų, uosynų, eglynų bei pušynų ir savaime atželiančių beržynų, juodalksnynų, drebulynų ir baltalksnynų auginimo ekonominį efektyvumą. Darbo metodai - taikytas variantų skaičiavimo metodas. Darbo rezultatai. Taikant įvairius nenukirsto miško kainų variantus ir 3 proc. diskonto normą, nustatyta, kad derlingose augavietėse savaiminis miško atžėlimas minkštųjų lapuočių medžių rūšimis (B, J, D, Bt) yra ekonomiškai efektyvesnis nei ąžuolynų, uosynų, eglynų ar pušynų dirbtinis įveisimas. Nustatyta, kad nenukirsto miško kainos padidėjimas, tiesiogiai veikia medynų auginimo ekonominio vertinimo rodiklius, šiuo atveju GDV. Raktažodžiai: medynų auginimas, technologinė savikaina, ekonominis efektyvumas, grynoji dabartinė vertė, diskonto norma, vidutinė metinė grynoji dabartinė vertė, nenukirsto miško kaina.
The economic efficiency of growing the pure stand of the most common tree species ( pine, spruce, oak, ash tree, birch, aspen, black an dgrey alder) inLithuania‘s fertile site type habitats ( c,d,f – soil fertility and N,L indice of soil moisture) has been studied. Research object: Economic efficiency of growing pure stand of the most common tree species in fertile habitats, expressed by the net present value of the indicators ( soil fertility, soil moisture indice). The fertile sites constitute 44,1 percent of all the forests in Lithuania. Researchaim: To compare the economic efficiency of artificially reforested oak, ash, spruce and pine stands with natural regeneration of birches, black alders, grey alders and aspens. Research methods: Variant calculation method was applied. Research outcomes: By applying diverse price options for uncut forest and 3percent discount rate, it was estimated that self – regeneration of soft deciduous tree species in fertile habitats is more cost effective than artificial afforestation with oaks, ash trees, spruces and pines. The price increase was found to have a direct effect on the economic indicators of forest growing. Keywords: forest growing, technological cost, economic efficiency, net present value, discount rate, the average annual net present value, the price of uncut forest.

This paper examines the short and long-term interdependencies between stock prices and dividends. I utilize firm level data from FTSE ALL SHARE from 1990-2014 and apply panel vector error correction model estimated with Engle & Grangers (1987) two-step procedure. The results show that there is a bi-directional long-term relationship between stock prices and dividends, i.e. an adjustment process is at work when a disequilibrium occurs. I also find a bi-directional short-term relationship. This paper also shows that Lintners model and the present value model are relevant frameworks in stock valuations.

AbstractAssuming that it is not possible to detach a dwelling from its location, this article highlights the relevance of space in the context of housing market analysis and the challenge of capturing the key elements of spatial structure in an automated valuation model: location attributes, heterogeneity, dependence and scale. Thus, the aim is to present a spatial automated valuation model (sAVM) prototype, which uses spatial econometric models to determine the value of a residential property, based on identification of eight housing characteristics (seven are physical attributes of a dwelling, and one is its location; once this spatial data is known, dozens of new variables are automatically associated with the model, producing new and valuable information to estimate the price of a housing unit). This prototype was developed in a successful cooperation between an academic institution (University of Aveiro) and a business company (PrimeYield SA), resulting the Prime AVM & Analytics product/service. This collaboration has provided an opportunity to materialize some of fundamental knowledge and research produced in the field of spatial econometric models over the last 15 years into decision support tools.

AbstractWe present the desirable tax reform on the property tax on land and housing in Japan. Since the property tax on housing, building, and equipment becomes an obstacle to the capital formation on land, it should be abolished. Conversely, the effective rate of property tax on land should be increased so as to attain the revenue neutrality for local government. The abolition of tax on housing induces the higher land price which can bear the increase in the property tax on land, so that such a tax reform would benefit all individuals.

The three fossil fuels, coal, oil and natural gas, are the major and depletable energy resources of the world. By end of the twentieth century, approximately 85% of the total primary energy consumed globally came from the three fossil fuels. In the last two years or so oil prices have almost doubled, whereas, price of natural gas has also increased at a faster rate. Indications and predictions are that these prices will stay for years to come because of imbalance in supply and demand and political instability in the Middle East and Africa regions. In such a dynamic energy market, companies dealing with energy resources, energy related equipment suppliers and service providers will face a stiffer competition. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the global energy market emphasizing the following key issues: the status of proven fossil fuels reserves which are recoverable with the today’s technology; trends of production and consumption of major fuels; trends of electric power generation and industrial gas turbine market for power generation; and emissions related issues. A brief discussion on gas monetization and IGCC (Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle) technology is also included. In addition to presenting an in-depth analysis of the energy related data for the last 2–3 decades, projections are provided for the next two decades (until 2025). The presented data will be useful in identifying world’s areas and countries where potentials for energy related businesses are expected to grow in the coming years. The presented study is a timely topic of discussion in presence of a highly volatile energy market and companion to the theme of the Turbo Expo 2006 “The Global Market and Cooperative Ventures”.

The four Ps of the Marketing Mix are defined as Product, Price, Place and Promotion. The last forty years of engineering design research has seen an increased incorporation of preference into the design process in response to meeting the demands of each ‘P’. This incorporation began with surrogates of preference in Design for Product problem formulations where an objective (such as minimizing weight, for example) represented a firm’s desire to reduce cost and maximize profit. As our community progressed toward Design for Price problem formulations, we began to represent preferences both of the designer — using decision theory techniques — and of the customer — often in the form of random utility models that then informed models of demand. The Design for Market System special session was created in response to our transition to Design for Place, though much work remains to be done. The objective of this paper is to highlight the advancements of the community through the first two P’s (Product and Price) while also highlighting the need, and exciting research opportunities, that exist as we transition to Design for Place and Design for Promotion.

Mass conservation equation is employed to study the time evolution of the mass of oil remaining in a reservoir, according to the mass flow rate of extraction, and to define the critical mass flow rate of extraction, which is the value exhausting the reservoir in an infinite time. The price evolution with time of the resource sold to the market is investigated in case of no-accumulation and no-depletion of the resources; i.e. when the resources are extracted and sold to the market at the same mass flow rate. The energy conservation equation is transformed into an energy-capital conservation equation, which allows to study the oil price evolution with time, dependent on the following parameters. The parameter PIFE, “Price Increase Factor of Extracted resource”, is the difference between the basic interest rate of the capital, e.g. inflation rate, and the mass flow rate of extraction. The parameter PIFS, “Price Increase Factor of Sold resource”, is the difference between the interest rate of the capital, e.g. prime rate, and the mass flow rate of extraction. The parameter CIPS, “Critical Initial Price of Sold resource”, depends on the initial price of the extracted resource, the interest rate of non-extracted resource, and the difference between PIFS and PIFE. The parameter CIPES, “Critical Initial Price Extreme of Sold resource”, depends on the initial price of the extracted resource, the interest rate of non-extracted resource, and PIFS. The present theory is applied to the time evolution of the oil price during the years following the economic crisis of 2008, introducing the new category of cases with a negative inflation rate, that was registered during 2009. The present theory can be applied also to the months with negative inflation rate with a reasonable fair agreement.

In this paper we present an economical optimization model for a microgrid connected to the general electricity grid by minimizing the total operating cost over a given period in the presence of uncertain future grid electricity prices. The microgrid is modeled to consist of five distinct blocks, four of which make up the microgrid and the fifth one being the connection to the general electricity grid. Each of these components has various adjustable attributes, allowing for the simulation of different kinds of consumers as well as different storage and generation technologies. Consumption and intermittent generation are exogenous variables derived from existing datasets. Under uncertain future grid electricity prices, the storage component introduces a non-causal dependency into the model, to cope with this non-causality, we present various storage use strategies and analyze the resulting cost patterns using real electricity price data and Monte Carlo simulations.

In this study, the retrofit project describes the conversion of the air-conditioning system at No.4 College Building in Donghua University in Shanghai China, to a building cooling heating and power (BCHP) system. This includes the optimal retrofit design models of the BCHP system, of which the exergetic efficiency and annual costs (AC) of the system are the separate objective functions. The retrofit scheme is planned to insert gas engines as prime movers into the original system, which have adopted gas-fired absorption chillers. The solutions of the optimization problems show that such retrofit can result in a remarkable rise in exergetic efficiency but is not currently viable with current fuel prices. The contradictory solutions reveal a gap between the current energy prices system of the country and the present energy situation. It is really an urgent task to reform the energy prices system in China. Further investigation gives the critical lines of which each divides the coordinate plane of natural gas-electric prices into 2 parts, viz., of benefit and deficit. It is found if the electric price rises to a certain extent, say a rise of USD0.0238, the retrofit will reach both a positive benefit and a remarkable increase in exergetic efficiency. Discussion and conclusions have been given and may be helpful for other similar retrofit projects that aim to both energy saving and benefits.

Manufacturers launch new product models at various time increments to meet changing market requirements over time. At each design period, product design and price may change. While price decisions can be made at product launching time, redesign decisions must be made in advance. Real options theory addresses such time gap decisions. This paper presents a real options approach with a binomial lattice model to determine optimal design and price decisions for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) that maximize expanded net present value of profit under gas price uncertainty over time. Results confirm that we can obtain changing vehicle attributes by changing gear ratios rather than the architectures themselves due to high cost of redesigning. A parametric study examines the impact of gas price volatility on option decisions and shows that larger volatility of gas price causes the change option to be selected more frequently.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In the aftermath of COVID-related school closures in the UK, students lost two months of learning, but the loss among the 1.7 million disadvantaged students has been much larger at seven months. This disadvantaged gap is almost entirely driven by maths attainment. One-to-one tutoring is proven to be effective at helping students catch up, but private tutoring is most likely to be taken up by children from affluent households, further widening the disadvantaged gap in learning. This report discusses the feasibility of an innovative tutoring delivery model that uses the global graduate market to deliver tutoring at a scale that can solve this problem and a price that schools can afford. While the report discusses the overall opportunity that the emerging market economies of South- and South-East Asia provide, it also presents the Third Space Learning model in Sri Lanka as a case study to investigate the practicalities of the global online tutoring model.

Storing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in oil reservoirs as part of CO2 -based enhanced oil recovery (CO2 -EOR) can be a cost-effective solution to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. In this paper, we analyze the economics of this option in order to estimate the amount of CO2 that could be profitably stored in different regions of the world. We consider situations in which the CO2 -EOR operator either purchases the CO2 supplied or is paid for its storage. Building upon extensive data sets concerning the characteristics and location of oil reservoirs and emission sources, the paper focuses on opportunities outside North America. Using net present value (NPV) as an indicator for profitability, we conduct a break-even analysis to relate CO2 supply prices (positive or negative) to economically viable storage potential.