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1
Burden, Barry C., and Brian J. Gaines. "Presidential Commission on Election Administration: Absentee and Early Voting: Weighing the Costs of Convenience." Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 14, no. 1 (March 2015): 32–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/elj.2014.0270.
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Hartlyn, Jonathan, Jennifer McCoy, and Thomas M. Mustillo. "Electoral Governance Matters." Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 1 (October 17, 2007): 73–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414007301701.
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This article provides a systematic cross-national analysis of the role of electoral administration in explaining acceptable democratic presidential elections in 19 countries in Latin America since the year 1980 or the first pivotal, transitional election. The authors provide two alternative measures of election administration, one focused on the degree of partisanship or professional independence and another on formal—legal institutional independence, as well as on other key factors, to test partial proportional odds-ordered logit models predicting the probability of an acceptable, flawed, or failed electoral process. The results show an important positive role for professional, independent electoral commissions on electoral outcomes in Latin America, controlling for other socioeconomic and political factors; formal-legal independence matters when the rules of the game are likely to be respected. In addition, low-quality elections are found disproportionately where incumbents seek reelection and where victory margins are extremely wide rather than narrow.
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Respati, Wira. "Analisis Strategi Komunikasi Pemasaran Terpadu dalam Meningkatan Partisipasi Pemilih pada Pemilu 2014." Humaniora 6, no. 1 (January 30, 2015): 29. http://dx.doi.org/10.21512/humaniora.v6i1.3295.
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As the institution in charge of election administration, Election Commission of Republic of Indonesia or Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU) has consistently conducted campaign to increase number of voters who will participate in election. As a matter of fact, result of previous elections showed how the level of participation has been decreased. Lack of political awareness, level of knowledge upon the importance of election as well as skepticism on government and representatives’ performance were believed to be the trigger. Hence, it is important for KPU to enhance effective marketing communication program, ranging from the stages of planning, implementation and evaluation to promote public awareness to participate in the election. Therefore, this study aims to find how the principles of social marketing are actually implemented in designing communication program to increase voter awareness upon the importance of 2014 election. This study used qualitative method. Data were gathered from interview with related parties and literature study. Research found that the principles of social marketing to build awareness of voters basically have already been integrated in the programs of KPU toward the entire group of voters. In addition, KPU is quite aware of the importance of synergy between the programs of their communications both above the line and below the line. On April 9th legislative election, level of participation were increasing, reached 75.11%, up from 71% in the previous 2009 election. However, the level of participation of the July 9th presidential election dropped to 70% compared to the previous election in 2009, 72%. The result of these two elections should be considered as another challenge to KPU in improving their marketing communication strategy in the future.
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Rannie, Mahesa. "LEGAL REGULATIONS FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION SYSTEM IN INDONESIA FROM THE 1955 ELECTION TO THE CONCURRENT ELECTION OF 2019." Nurani: Jurnal Kajian Syari'ah dan Masyarakat 20, no. 2 (December 31, 2020): 247–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.19109/nurani.v20i2.6927.
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Throughout its history, Indonesia has held general elections many times from 1955 to 2019. During that long period of time, Indonesia implemented a different electoral system at each election. The arrangement of the electoral system in Indonesia always changes from time to time in each election administration. In the process of changing the laws and the regulations for every election, there has always been legal political dynamics. After the 2014 elections, there have been changes regarding the conduct of elections in Indonesia. The Constitutional Court (MK) granted the petition for a judicial review of Law Number 42 of 2008 concerning the Election of President and Vice President in 2014, so that the implementation of elections in Indonesia entered a new phase in 2019 and beyond. In 2019, for the first time Indonesia held simultaneous elections. The methodology used in this study is normative. The approaches used in this study are the historical approach, the statute approach, the legal analysis approach, and the conceptual approach. Legal arrangements regarding the conduct of elections always change, starting from the highest level of legislative regulations to the lowest (from the laws to the General Election Commission regulations, presidential decrees, ministerial regulations, or other regulations). The changes in the regulations regarding the implementation of elections in Indonesia have been present since the time of the 1955 elections until the 2019 elections. Since the implementation of the 1955 elections, Indonesia has always practiced a proportional electoral system, the electoral system that is considered suitable to be applied in Indonesia. This proportional electoral system is practiced with various modifications (both the open proportional electoral system and the closed proportional system). There are even district elements in the proportional electoral system in Indonesia, for example there are electoral districts that can be equated with districts in the district electoral system. The practice of the electoral system to be used in the elections in Indonesia is almost always subject to debate, both among constitutional law intellectuals and politics.
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Merivaki, Thessalia, and Daniel A. Smith. "A Failsafe for Voters? Cast and Rejected Provisional Ballots in North Carolina." Political Research Quarterly 73, no. 1 (September 19, 2019): 65–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912919875816.
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Provisional ballots constitute a failsafe for voters who have their registration or voter identification questioned by poll workers. Scholars have yet to examine who is more likely to cast a provisional ballot, and more importantly, why some provisional ballots are rejected. We suggest that beyond individual-level factors, there are administrative reasons why some prospective voters are more likely to be required to cast provisional ballots than others, and why some provisional ballots are rejected. Drawing on county data collected by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission’s (EAC) biennial Election Administration and Voting Surveys (EAVS) from 2012 to 2016, and individual records of provisional ballots cast in the 2016 Presidential Election in North Carolina, we examine aggregate- and individual-level reasons to explain who casts provisional ballots and why some are rejected. Our findings raise normative questions concerning whether voters casting provisional ballots are treated equally under the law.
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Zelizer, Julian E. "Seeds of Cynicism: The Struggle over Campaign Finance, 1956–1974." Journal of Policy History 14, no. 1 (January 2002): 73–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jph.2002.0006.
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“It is a cesspool, it is a source of infection for the body politic,” Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-Minn.) warned his fellow senators in 1973 about the private financing of elections. “[I]f it doesn't stop, there are going to be good men in this hall right here today who are going down the drain, not that you are guilty, not that you have done anything wrong, but that the public is disenchanted with all of us, and they are going to want somebody new and say I want a fresh one here.” From 1971 through President Nixon's resignation in 1974, Congress enacted the boldest campaign finance reforms in American history, including strong disclosure laws, public financing for presidential elections, contribution and spending limits, and an independent enforcement commission. Despite these reforms, after only a decade under the new laws, citizens still felt that campaign finance was corrupt.
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Vasetsky, A. A., and D. Yu Ivanov. "Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management, Branch of RANEPA)." Administrative Consulting, no. 10 (November 27, 2020): 35–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/10.22394/1726-1139-2020-10-35-44.
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Comprehensive processes of digital change in socio-economic reality actualized and concentrated the attention of decision makers and scientists on the adaptation of administrative systems to new challenges. The state program “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation” contains a number of design areas for the digital transformation of the Russian public administration system. The system of election commissions of Russia was actively included in this program and formed a set of project initiatives that are designed to significantly change the appearance and content of the entire electoral system and the electoral process. It is obvious that the rapid nature of the ongoing external (global) and internal changes and challenges required flexible response methods. The project management methodology, according to the authors, is adequate to modern reality and is optimal when implementing initiatives aimed at information development. In the article, the authors examine in detail digital projects and digital services of the Russian electoral system, as well as form a series of proposals aimed at further improving project initiatives. The authors believe that from a scientific and applied point of view, the stake on the project approach in the implementation of digital projects is justified, especially in the context of a constant change in the strategic priorities of socio-economic development.
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Vasetsky, A. A., and D. Yu Ivanov. "Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management, Branch of RANEPA)." Administrative Consulting, no. 10 (November 27, 2020): 35–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2020-10-35-44.
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Comprehensive processes of digital change in socio-economic reality actualized and concentrated the attention of decision makers and scientists on the adaptation of administrative systems to new challenges. The state program “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation” contains a number of design areas for the digital transformation of the Russian public administration system. The system of election commissions of Russia was actively included in this program and formed a set of project initiatives that are designed to significantly change the appearance and content of the entire electoral system and the electoral process. It is obvious that the rapid nature of the ongoing external (global) and internal changes and challenges required flexible response methods. The project management methodology, according to the authors, is adequate to modern reality and is optimal when implementing initiatives aimed at information development. In the article, the authors examine in detail digital projects and digital services of the Russian electoral system, as well as form a series of proposals aimed at further improving project initiatives. The authors believe that from a scientific and applied point of view, the stake on the project approach in the implementation of digital projects is justified, especially in the context of a constant change in the strategic priorities of socio-economic development.
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Canon, David T., and Owen Sherman. "Debunking the “Big Lie”: Election Administration in the 2020 Presidential Election." Presidential Studies Quarterly 51, no. 3 (May 15, 2021): 546–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/psq.12721.
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Frears, John. "The 1988 French Presidential Election." Government and Opposition 23, no. 3 (July 1, 1988): 276–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1988.tb00085.x.
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THE 1986 ELECTION WAS THE BEGINNING OF ‘COHABITATION’ and 1988 was the end of it — at least of the Fifth Republic's first experience of it. Cohabitation between the President and a Prime Minister who was his chief political adversary was to be the last great test of the stability and adaptability of the Fifth Republic's political institutions. It had been the dominant theme in 1986 just as the fearsome prospect of cohabitation between left-wing parliamentary majorities and previous presidents had been to the forefront in the parliamentary elections of 1978 and even 1973. It was as the President of cohabitation that FranGois Mitterrand won his extraordinary 1988 victory. The survival of presidential legitimacy against the onslaught of prime ministerial power is what the 1988 presidential election will be remembered for. This is the principal theme of this article.
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McNaughtan, Jon, Hugo Garcia, Ian Lértora, Sarah Louis, Xinyang Li, Alexis L. Croffie, and Elisabeth D. McNaughtan. "Contentious dialogue: University presidential response and the 2016 U.S. presidential election." Journal of Higher Education Policy and Management 40, no. 6 (April 16, 2018): 533–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1360080x.2018.1462437.
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Williams, Christine B., and Girish J. “Jeff” Gulati. "Digital Advertising Expenditures in the 2016 Presidential Election." Social Science Computer Review 36, no. 4 (September 8, 2017): 406–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0894439317726751.
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Using 2012 and 2016 candidate disbursements and independent expenditures filing data collected by the Federal Election Commission, this study compares how much money both the presidential campaigns and outside groups spent on digital relative to traditional media. Digital campaign expenditures have increased their share of total media outlays markedly over recent election cycles, and in the 2016 presidential election, both the candidate and independent expenditures were higher than in 2012, particularly on the Republican side. This article investigates reasons for these trends and establishes a baseline for future research on the heretofore understudied topic of digital political advertising.
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Dudek, Dariusz. "Opinia prawna w sprawie rekomendacji Komisji Weneckiej dotyczących wyborów w stanach nadzwyczajnych i ich znaczenia dla wyborów prezydenckich w Polsce w 2020 r." Przegląd Sejmowy 2(163) (2021): 243–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.31268/ps.2021.25.
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The author presents a constitutional regulation of the Polish model of presidential election and states of emergency and relates them to the specific situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Then, he analyses in detail the content of the recommendations of the European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission) of 26 May 2020 (Respect for Democracy, Human Rights and the Rule of Law during States of Emergency – Reflections), regarding the elections in states of emergency and its significance for the presidential election in Poland in 2020. The opinion positively evaluates all the Commission’s recommendations and considers that the existing and new exceptional Polish electoral law regulations respecting the principles of democracy and rule of law are fully complaint with them.
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Mattei, Franco, and Herbert F. Weisberg. "Presidential Succession Effects in Voting." British Journal of Political Science 24, no. 4 (October 1994): 495–516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400006979.
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Attitudes towards a departing administration can help shape attitudes towards candidates, especially when the incumbent vice-president is one of the candidates. This succession effect was apparent in the 1988 presidential election, when Vice-President Bush benefited from the enduring popularity of retiring President Reagan. This article develops a model in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party identification affect the general election vote. Analysis shows that this effect remains when controls are instituted for retrospective voting more generally. Attitudes towards Reagan also had an indirect impact by affecting the net Bush-Dukakis candidate score; altogether the estimated impact of the Reagan effect in 1988 was to turn the vice-president's predicted loss into his observed victory. Additionally, a succession effect was detected in the 1988 nominating campaign, with Bush's popularity over Dole benefiting from reactions to the Reagan administration. There is evidence of succession effects in other presidential elections, particularly a Johnson effect in 1968.
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Ardiansyah, Rizka. "ANALISIS SENTIMEN CALON PRESIDEN DAN WAKIL PRESIDEN PERIODE 2019-2024 PASCA DEBAT PILPRES DI TWITTER." ScientiCO : Computer Science and Informatics Journal 2, no. 1 (July 3, 2019): 21. http://dx.doi.org/10.22487/j26204118.2019.v2.i1.13068.
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Social networking sites, such as Twitter and Facebook are one of the important spaces for political engagement. Twitter or Facebook have become common elements in political campaigns and elections, especially for Indonesia’s presidential election 2019. for the period 2019 - 2024 there are two presidential and vice presidential candidates namely Ir. H. Joko Widodo - Prof. Dr. K.H. Ma'ruf Amin and Lieutenant General (Ret.) H. Prabowo Subianto - H. Sandiaga Uno. B.B.A., M.B.A. the two candidates who ran for the election triggered a lot of related public opinion where the most suitable candidate to become the president of the next period. Public opinion is generally one of the determining factors for presidential candidates who will later win the election. Presidential candidate debate is the efforts of the election commission to facilitate the presidential candidates to introduce their work programs to the public while building public opinion that they are the right people to become leaders of the next period. Although of course, this is not the only major factor that shapes public opinion. The purpose of this study is to summarize the opinions of the people voiced through social media related to the election of candidates for the Indonesian President and Vice President for the period 2019-2024 post debate on the presidential election. While the benefit is to help the community so that they can understand in a broader context such as what the public opinion about presidential candidates, especially on social media Twitter. The results of this study were presidential candidate Joko Widodo - Makruf Amin obtained a 25% positive sentiment, 4.5% negative sentiment and 70.5% neutral sentiment. while the Prabowo Subianto - Sandiaga Uno pair received a 5.1% positive sentiment, 2.5% negative sentiment and 92.4% neutral sentiment.
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Lauron, Cherryl. "Impact of Facebook Likes and Shares on Campaign Posts in Predicting the 2016 Philippine Presidential Election Results." Abstract Proceedings International Scholars Conference 7, no. 1 (December 18, 2019): 936–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.35974/isc.v7i1.1919.
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Impact of Facebook Likes and Shares on Campaign Posts in Predicting the 2016 Philippine Presidential Election Results
Cherryl M. Lauron, MDC1
1Department of Development Communication, Adventist University of the Philippines
che.lauron@gmail.com
Introduction:
The active usage of the Filipinos in the social media application called Facebook may influence the society, the election campaign and result but hard evidence is scarce. Hence, this study intends to analyze how the engagement of users through ‘likes’ and ‘shares’ on the Facebook campaign posts can predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election.
Methods:
The study delved on interpreting how Facebook as a communication channel predicted the election result based on the engagement in likes and shares in the Facebook campaign posts. Only the number of likes and shares of the posts based on the total count on the original post on the candidates’ official Facebook page were analyzed. These were posted during the campaign period declared by the Commission on Elections. The social net importer was used in the data gathering process then the calculation using a statistical tool followed as basis for analysis.
Results:
The official election result from the COMELEC confirmed that Rodrigo Duterte won in the 2016 Presidential election with a total of 16,601,997 votes. Grace Poe secured the highest number of likes and shares, 13,036,065 likes and 1,511,020 shares, respectively but she only ranked as third in the official election. Results show that the number of likes and shares on the Facebook election campaign posts are not significant in predicting the election result.
Discussion: Future studies in relation to Philippine Presidential election may be conducted and other variables can be considered like the Presidential debate likes and shares, comments, and other Facebook reactions like heart, wow, sad and thankful.
Keywords: Facebook Likes, Facebook Shares, Campaign Posts, 2016 Philippine Presidential Election Results
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Holbrook, Thomas M. "Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 04 (September 27, 2012): 640–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000923.
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Although research at other levels of elected office has shown that incumbency has a powerful, additive effect on votes (Hogan 2004; Jacobson 2009; Krebs 1998), these effects largely have been ignored in presidential forecasting models (but see Abramowitz 2008). Instead, some scholars speculate about the conditional effects of incumbency; specifically, the decreased applicability of the retrospective model when the president is not on the ticket leaving the somewhat-harder-to-blame-or-reward vice president to represent the administration. The difficult-to-predict 2000 presidential election generated some discussion on this point. Although I and others argued (Campbell 2001; Holbrook 2001; Wlezien 2001) that part of the explanation for the forecasting error in 2000 lies with Al Gore's failure to embrace the Bill Clinton-Al Gore record and reinforce retrospective voting, others indicate that the retrospective cue may generally be weaker when the president is not on the ticket (Campbell 2001; Lewis-Beck and Tien 2001; Nadeau and Lewis-Beck 2001). Indeed, Campbell (2001; 2008) argues in favor of only giving half weight to presidential performance variables when the vice president, rather than president, is representing the incumbent administration. The logic here is simple: absent the president on the ticket, it is more difficult to frame the election as a referendum, leading voters to attach less weight to incumbency-oriented considerations. This is not to say that factors such as presidential approval and economic performance are unimportant when incumbents do not run, only that these factors might matter less.
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Calimbahin, Cleo. "Exceeding (Low) Expectations: Autonomy, Bureaucratic Integrity, and Capacity in the 2010 Elections." Philippine Political Science Journal 32, no. 1 (December 21, 2011): 103–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2165025x-03201004.
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Building quality democracy takes time. It requires a constant review of the performance of institutions that are tasked to deliver in concrete ways the democratic ideal. Improving democratic institutions requires sustained reform efforts. Election administration and election commissions need to be examined against this backdrop of broader democratization issues. Given the importance of election administration in the study of democratic processes, there are very few studies that focus on election administration. By focusing on a specific institution tasked to replicate the ideals of democracy such as the COMELEC, this study offers insights into a deeper understanding of autonomy, bureaucratic integrity and capacity. Though mostly overlooked, election administration plays a vital role in the study of broader democratization questions. Elections promise continuity and stability. But if election administration is done poorly due to the lack of autonomy, integrity, and capacity then it becomes an unsettling and destabilizing exercise. With democratic structures in place for years, the Philippines continues to have problems with the most basic elements of election administration: accuracy in maintaining voter lists, counting votes and adjudicating disputes. The COMELEC oversees election administration, serving as referee and gatekeeper in the Philippines’ electoral arena. The COMELEC is a constitutional commission with ostensible autonomy and power, yet it is also a bureaucracy. The May 2010 election was the first automated election in the Philippines. Widely regarded as a success, there were many issues and incidents that show it was also business as usual for COMELEC. The speed of the canvass count astounded the voting populace, and perhaps operators, but the May 2010 election continues to show embedded problems within the commission that needs to be addressed in order to strengthen the COMELEC as an institution that can provide election administration efficiently and accurately in subsequent elections.
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Meagher, Michael E. "The U.S. Presidential Campaign, 2016." Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 28, no. 1 (2016): 19–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/jis2016281/22.
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This essay explores the 2016 election using 1964 for comparison. The central theme is that 1964 set the context for subsequent presidential elections. Issues and public policy revolved around the standards set by the 1964 converting election. Both race and religion played a role in the 1964 converting election that redefined the Democratic Party as the liberal political party for the nation, and the Republican as its conservative counterpart. This established a political regime that endures until the present day, but its endurance has had deleterious consequences for the discussion of new proposals. Change happens slowly and piecemeal. Both parties maintain high levels of spending as politics has been reduced to administration, a technocracy rather than representative democracy. The resulting pressures and frustrations manifest themselves with increasing frequency in the political system. The tumultuous 2016 campaign is the latest manifestation of this dissatisfaction among voters. Given the peculiarities of 2016, are we on the verge of a historic realignment, one that may set a similar standard for a generation?
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Johnson, Thomas. "The 2019 Afghan Presidential Election: An Assessment of Problematic Processes and Results." Afghanistan 4, no. 1 (April 2021): 19–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/afg.2021.0062.
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This article assesses Afghanistan's Presidential Election of 2019. Analyzing official data from the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC), it examines voting patterns at both the national and provincial levels and compares these results with those of past elections. It draws on statistical methods to evaluate Afghan electoral procedures, focusing in particular on the practice of ballot invalidation and voter suppression as well as the role of ethno-linguistic voting blocs. The analysis reveals highly unusual voting patterns and other dynamics that point to significant irregularities and fraud. The article concludes with a number of recommendations for future Afghan elections.
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Crotty, William. "Policy and Politics: The Bush Administration and the 2008 Presidential Election." Polity 41, no. 3 (July 2009): 282–311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/pol.2009.3.
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Mungwari, Teddy. "Zimbabwe Post Election Violence: Motlanthe Commission of Inquiry 2018." International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review 10, no. 02 (February 23, 2019): 20392–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.15520/ijcrr.v10i02.675.
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Zimbabwe held its national elections on 30 July 2018. The electoral process was generally peaceful until 1 August 2018, when demonstrators took to the streets of Harare demanding the immediate release of the presidential election results. Arguably, the police failed to contain the situation and sought the assistance of the military which fired live ammunition to unarmed civilians. By end of 1 August 2018, at least six (6) people had been tragically killed; injury of thirty-five (35), and extensive damage and destruction of property had been caused. Following these incidents, on 12 September 2018, the President of the Republic of Zimbabwe, His Excellency Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, appointed a Commission of Inquiry in terms of Section 2(1) of the Commission of Inquiry Act [Chapter 10:07] through Proclamation 6of 2018 published in Statutory Instrument 181 of 2018, to investigate matters of public welfare arising out of the tragic events in Harare on 1 August 2018. This article argues that the Motlanthe Commission of Inquiry was biased against main opposition. The article concluded that the coverage of the public hearings was polarized and that Zimbabwe is a divided and polarized state. This article contributes towards policy and reform changes.
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Purnamasari, Dwi, Ashabul Kahfi, and Arief Fatchur Rachman. "PERAN PENYELENGGARA PEMILU DALAM PEMILIHAN LEGISLATIF 2014 DI KABUPATEN SIDOARJO." JKMP (Jurnal Kebijakan dan Manajemen Publik) 3, no. 1 (March 1, 2015): 93. http://dx.doi.org/10.21070/jkmp.v3i1.183.
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This study aims to analyze and determine the role of the Election Supervisory Committee and the Commission (general election commission) Implementation of legislative elections in 2014 in Sidoarjo and analyze the factors that cause a lack of understanding of policy formulation election organizers in the respective organizers of the Role of Election Supervisory Committee and the General Election Commission. This research method is using descriptive qualitative approach. The data needed is a secondary data in the form of books, journals, articles, print media (newspapers) and the mass media as well as primary data obtained from informants through. Based on the results of this study concluded that the role of each institution in the administration of elections has not run optimally in accordance with Law Number 15 of 2011 on the Election. In the implementation on the ground found some constraints on each institution in organizing legislative elections in 2014 related to the duties and responsibilities between the Role of the Election Supervisory Committee and the General Election Commission.
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Piccolino, Giulia. "One Step Forward, Two Steps Back? Côte d'Ivoire's 2015 Presidential Polls." Africa Spectrum 51, no. 1 (April 2016): 97–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/000203971605100106.
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The 2015 presidential election in Côte d'Ivoire was seen as an important test for the country given the 2010 post-election crisis. Although the 2015 polls were peaceful, they were affected by problems not new to Côte d'Ivoire: lack of competition due to non-participation of major political actors, low voter turnout, mistrust in electoral institutions. The unpreparedness of the Commission Electorale Indépendante (CEI) was also problematic, especially with respect to the revision of the voter list. Due to the boycott of partisans of former president Laurent Gbagbo and because of the support of the Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix (RHDP), President Alassane Ouattara's re-election was essentially a given from the start. With the ruling coalition firmly in control, Côte d'Ivoire appears stable. However, the country's democratic deficit might lead to renewed violence once the RHDP has to pick Ouattara's successor.
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Ogbonna, Christian Alozie, Nnanyelugo Okoro, and Joseph O. Wogu. "Influence of Hate Speech on Public Perception of Presidential Candidates’ Credibility During the 2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria." Global Journal of Health Science 12, no. 5 (March 11, 2020): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/gjhs.v12n5p20.
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The study examines the influence of hate speech on public perception of presidential candidates’ credibility during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. The study was guided by two research questions. A descriptive survey design was adopted for the study using 72,001, 204 eligible registered voters in the six geo-political zones of Nigeria. 600 questionnaires were distributed and 518 were returned for analysis through multi-stage sampling. The research questions were answered using mean and standard deviation, while the hypotheses were tested using Pearson – chi-square test at 0.05 level of significance. Findings reveal that the extent to which voters were aware of hate speech against a political opponent during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria was high. The findings further show that one of the factors that influenced hate speech against a political opponent during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria was the political affiliation of voters. Concerning the null hypotheses, findings indicated that there was no significant relationship among the responses of the electorate in the six geo-political zones on the factors that influenced hate speech during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. A significant relationship was also not found on how hate speech influenced public perception of presidential candidates during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. The study recommends that politicians, political parties as well as their supporters should be cautioned on using social media to post hate speech, inciting messages, attack opponents, spread false news. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should propose to the National Assembly to enact laws in the electoral act that will make the use of hate speech for campaign purposes a punishable offence in the country.
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Cole, Alistair. "A Strange Affair: The 2002 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France." Government and Opposition 37, no. 3 (July 2002): 317–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1477-7053.00103.
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The 2002 Elections In France Were A Gripping Drama Unfolding in four acts. Each act has to be understood as part of a whole, as each election was ultimately dependent upon the results of the first round of the presidential election on 21 April. However untypical in the context of Fifth Republican history, the first round of the presidential election strongly inf luenced the peculiar course of the subsequent contests. The outcome of the first election on the 21 April – at which the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen won through to the second ballot against Jacques Chirac, narrowly distancing the outgoing premier Lionel Jospin – created an electric shock which reverberated around the streets of Paris and other French cities and sparked a civic mobilization without parallel since May '68. The end-result of this exceptional republican mobilization was to secure the easy (initially rather unexpected) re-election of Chirac as president at the second round two weeks later. The election of 5 May was unlike a typical second-round election. Rather than a bipolar contest pitting left and right over a choice of future governmental orientations, it was a plebiscite in favour of democracy (hence Chirac) against the far-right (Le Pen). Chirac was re-elected overwhelmingly as president, supported by at least as many leftwing as right-wing voters. This enforced plebiscite against the extreme right allowed a resurgent Jacques Chirac to claim a renewed presidential authority. At the parliamentary election of 9 and 16 June, the Fifth Republic reverted to a more traditional mode of operation, as a new ‘presidential party’, informally launched just weeks before the elections, obtained a large overall majority of seats to ‘support the President’ in time-honoured Fifth Republican tradition.
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Norpoth, Helmut. "On the Razor's Edge: The Forecast of the Primary Model." PS: Political Science & Politics 41, no. 04 (October 2008): 683–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s104909650808116x.
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With another Bush looking weak, many Democrats are feeling good about their prospects in November, even without the dream of a job in the White House for themselves. Yet this time, a Bush won't be on the presidential ballot in November, nor will someone closely affiliated with his administration, such as the vice president. Whatever the Bush legacy may be, the 2008 presidential election shapes up as an open-seat contest. A key predictor of the model used here to forecast the outcome of that contest is the showing of the presidential nominees in primaries (hence the sobriquet Primary Model). Since American elections in November are typically preceded by primary elections earlier in the year, it is natural to inquire whether the voting in presidential primaries is a leading indicator of the vote in the general election? Remarkably so, as it turns out. How the presidential candidates do in primary elections foretells their prospects in the November election with great accuracy.
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TAMIYA, Shoko. "Using Various Measures: Secretariat to Election Administration Commission Tokyo Metropolitan Government." TRENDS IN THE SCIENCES 24, no. 3 (March 1, 2019): 3_72–3_77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5363/tits.24.3_72.
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MURRAY SVIDRONOVA, Maria, Alena KASCAKOVA, and Gabriela BAMBUSEKOVA. "Social media in the presidential election campaign: Slovakia 2019." Administratie si Management Public 1, no. 33 (November 2019): 181–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/amp/2019.33-11.
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Amalia, Nopi, and Andi Mulyadi. "Strategi Komisi Pemilihan Umum dalam Mengurangi Angka Golput pada Pemilihan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden." JOPPAS: Journal of Public Policy and Administration Silampari 1, no. 1 (October 3, 2019): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.31539/joppa.v1i1.801.
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This study aims to determine whether the strategy used by the KPU of Sukabumi City in the Presidential and Vice President Elections in Sukabumi City in 2019 can reduce the percentage of abstentions and achieve the targets set using the theory of G. Dess and Miller. This study uses a qualitative descriptive method, to determine the researcher's informant using snowball sampling. Data collection through observation, interviews, and documentation. In testing the validity of the data researchers used triangulation techniques. The results showed the percentage of abstentions in the election of President and Vice President in the City of Sukabumi had exceeded the target set by the KPU of Sukabumi City. One of the drivers of achieving this target is the Form A5 made by the KPU of Sukabumi City and the socialization targets provided by democratic volunteers. Conclusions, Sukabumi City Election Commission Strategy in reducing the number of abstentions in the election of President and Vice President has been going well
Keywords: Strategy, Abstentions, General Election Commission
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NWANGWU, CHIKODIRI, and OLIHE ADAEZE ONONOGBU. "Electoral Laws and Monitoring of Campaign Financing during the 2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria." Japanese Journal of Political Science 17, no. 4 (November 8, 2016): 614–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1468109916000268.
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AbstractThe emergence of politicians with overwhelming financial muscle in Nigeria since 1990s has complicated the relationship between money and politics in the country. This has been intensified by lack of clear legislation on how political parties should seek funding for their campaigns. Although effective supervision of political parties’ finance is critical to the survival and consolidation of any democracy, the relevant electoral laws in Nigeria have not been effectively enforced. This is evident in the unbridled deployment of financial and other material resources by moneyed politicians and corporations during party campaign fundraising and electioneering. Among other things, this paper investigated the interface between the electoral laws and monitoring of campaign financing during the 2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria. The study is a documentary research and data were analyzed using a qualitative descriptive method. Utilizing the Marxist theory of the post-colonial state, the paper established that the electoral laws are generally couched ambiguously by politicians with vested interests in order to weaken the enforcement capacity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as well as facilitate the advancement of the electoral interests of the ‘political entrepreneurs’. Thus, the unbundling of the Commission is recommended as a sine qua non for effective monitoring and supervision of political parties in the country.
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Montjoy, R. S., and D. M. Chapin. "The U.S. Election Assistance Commission: What Role in the Administration of Elections?" Publius: The Journal of Federalism 35, no. 4 (January 1, 2005): 617–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/publius/pji040.
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Golay, Frank H. "Presidential Address: Cause for Concern in the Philippines." Journal of Asian Studies 45, no. 5 (November 1986): 935–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2056603.
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This paper focuses on the administration of Ferdinand Marcos, President of the Philippine Islands, 1965–1986, with particular emphasis on economic policy, fiscal abuse and monopolization during a period of martial law. The paper traces the resultant grave social consequences for the impoverished country, the consternation of the international banking community, and the eventual election to the presidency of Corazon Aquino in February, 1986.
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Fahadi, Prasakti Ramadhana. "Oligarchic Media Ownership and Polarized Television Coverage in Indonesia’s 2014 Presidential Election." Jurnal Komunikasi Ikatan Sarjana Komunikasi Indonesia 4, no. 2 (December 30, 2019): 77–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.25008/jkiski.v4i2.328.
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It has been argued that the media ownership is an influential factor determining the content production and performance of the media. However, knowledge about the characteristics of the media ownership and its impacts on the coverage of general election by the media has been less researched. Judging by such developments, this work raises the following question: how did the oligarchic ownership of the Indonesian news television channels determine the ways in which they covered two candidates who ran for president in 2014? By selecting TV One and Metro TV as a case study, this work extracts reports on the ways in which these news TV channels have produced news content related to the 2014 general election using qualitative and thematic content analyses. The findings are as follows: In the 2014 Indonesian presidential election, both TV One and Metro TV failed to comply with the ideal journalistic principles of covering both sides, objective and balanced reporting, as required by the Indonesian Broadcasting Commission, while broadcasting news about the two presidential candidates. Instead, the television stations preferred to broadcast the polarized news coverage of the presidential candidates. TV One appeared to show more support for the Prabowo-Hatta Rajasa presidential candidate pair, while Metro TV favoured the Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla presidential candidate pair. This suggests that oligarchic media ownership strongly influenced the content production and performance of these news TV channels. They were used by oligarchs who have the media company to convey their personal political agendas in the hope that it will influence, or even set, the public’s agenda.
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Bullock, Charles S., M. V. Hood, and Richard Clark. "Punch Cards, Jim Crow, and Al Gore: Explaining Voter Trust in the Electoral System in Georgia, 2000." State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5, no. 3 (September 2005): 283–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/153244000500500305.
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Following the problems with presidential voting in Florida in 2000, voters and political scientists became interested in election administration. While empirical studies have shown that different election equipment can produce different tabulation error rates, little is known about the factors that affect voters' perceptions of good election administration. Using a survey of voters in Georgia, we examine these perceptions of the voting process. We find that black voters and Democrats were significantly less confident than others that their votes were counted accurately and that they were also more likely to express concerns over the election equipment they used. In contrast, the actual voting environment, including the type of voting equipment used, appears to have no direct bearing on voters' trust in the process.
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Nam, Taewoo, and Jennifer Stromer-Galley. "The Democratic Divide in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election." Journal of Information Technology & Politics 9, no. 2 (April 2012): 133–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19331681.2011.579858.
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Doherty, Kathleen M., David E. Lewis, and Scott Limbocker. "Presidential Control and Turnover in Regulatory Personnel." Administration & Society 51, no. 10 (September 18, 2019): 1606–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0095399719875458.
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Career executives often occupy administrative positions that determine the pace and content of policy, such as those responsible for developing regulations. Yet, presidential administrations need control over these positions to achieve policy aims. This article considers the extent to which new presidential administrations marginalize career executives in key regulatory positions by transferring responsibilities to another individual and whether the mere expectation of political conflict with a new administration drives career regulators from their positions. Using unique new data on 866 career regulators that led major rulemaking efforts between 1995 and 2013, we demonstrate that turnover among career executives in key regulatory positions increases following a party change in the White House. Turnover also increases during a presidential election year, but this effect is conditioned by bureaucrats’ expectations of the election outcome. Finally, career executives are more likely to depart in response to favorable labor market conditions. Given our findings that turnover in regulatory responsibilities is driven both by presidential marginalization and strategic exit by bureaucrats, we conclude with implications for presidential efforts to control the administrative state.
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Sinclair, Betsy, Steven S. Smith, and Patrick D. Tucker. "“It’s Largely a Rigged System”: Voter Confidence and the Winner Effect in 2016." Political Research Quarterly 71, no. 4 (April 21, 2018): 854–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912918768006.
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The 2016 presidential election provided a unique opportunity to revisit two competing hypotheses for how voters establish their perceptions of electoral integrity. First, mass public opinion is believed to derive from elite messages. In the 2016 presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump maintained that the election system was “rigged,” while election administration experts and officials received considerable media coverage in their efforts to counter Trump’s claims. Second, literature on voter confidence has established a “winner effect”—voters who cast ballots for winners are more likely than voters on the losing side to believe their vote was counted correctly. Thus, voters were exposed to two theoretically opposite effects. In this paper, we find that the “winner” effect mitigates the effects from strong pre-election cues from elites. We also show the effect of pre-election attention to the rigging issue, find a symmetry of the election outcome effect for winners and losers, and reconsider our explanations of the winner effect. Finally, we go beyond the existing studies of the winner effect to consider the kind of citizens who are most susceptible to that effect.
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Boyko, Nazar, Erik S. Herron, and Roman Sverdan. "Administration and management of Ukraine’s 2014 presidential election: a systematic and spatial analysis." Eurasian Geography and Economics 55, no. 3 (May 4, 2014): 286–306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2014.986494.
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Ware, Alan. "The 1896 and 1996 US Elections: A Re-emerging ‘Problem’ of the South and West?" Government and Opposition 32, no. 1 (January 1997): 39–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1997.tb01208.x.
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ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE 1996 US presidential election was the evident inverse relationship between the results that year and those of the election contested exactly one hundred years earlier. Most of the states won by Bill Clinton were carried by the Republican William McKinley in 1896, while nearly all the states won by Bob Dole were those carried by William Jennings Bryan, the Democratic candidate. In 1896 there were 45 states, and of them 28 were won by the Democrats and 17 by the Republicans in the 1996 presidential election. Twenty-one of the 28 Democratic states in 1996 (or 75 per cent of the total) had been Republican a hundred years earlier; 15 of the 17 Republican states in 1996 (or 88 per cent of the total) went for the Democrats in 1896. This impression of the two election years being mirror images of each other, at least so far as the pattern of presidential results is concerned, is even more evident when looking at the distribution of Electoral College (EC) votes. (The five states created since 1896 are omitted from the entire discussion.) Of the 358 EC votes the 282 that went to the Democrats were from ‘McKinley states’, and they constitute 78 per cent of the Democrat total. In the case of the Republicans, 133 out of 148 EC votes were from ‘Bryanite states’ - that is 90 per cent of the 1996 Republican EC vote.
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King, James D. "Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes: Factoring in Opposition Party Strategy." Forum 17, no. 2 (July 26, 2019): 209–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2019-0014.
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Abstract Midterm congressional elections are referenda on the president not by happenstance but by design, as the opposition party and its candidates attack the administration when political conditions provide the opportunity. Models for explaining and predicting the number of seats won by the president’s party incorporating the number of seats held before the election, prior election results, change in status of the economy, and presidential evaluation data conditioned by strategy of the opposition party are presented. These models improve upon traditional models of midterm election explanations and predictions, providing parsimonious, theory-driven, and accurate models of midterm election outcomes.
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Alidu, Seidu Mahama, and Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari. "Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections." Legon Journal of the Humanities 31, no. 1 (December 30, 2020): 145–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ljh.v31i1.6.
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In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.
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Alidu, Seidu Mahama, and Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari. "Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections." Legon Journal of the Humanities 31, no. 1 (December 30, 2020): 145–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ljh.v31i1.6.
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In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.
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Decker, Frank, and Jared Sonnicksen. "An Alternative Approach to European Union Democratization: Re-Examining the Direct Election of the Commission President." Government and Opposition 46, no. 2 (2011): 168–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2010.01335.x.
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AbstractA successful reform of any system of governance must be well informed of the system's own functional logic. In the context of its democratization, this article explores whether the institutional arrangement of the European Union has developed or behaves more like a presidential than a parliamentary system. Building on that, the authors re-examine the opportunities and feasibility of realizing that model as a step towards more democracy in European governance.
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Kubas, Alicia. "A turbulent time: government sources post-2016 presidential election." Reference Services Review 48, no. 1 (December 19, 2019): 129–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/rsr-10-2019-0073.
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Purpose Since the 2016 presidential election, hyper-partisanship has become a regular facet of the political landscape with Democrats and Republicans in increasing conflict. The purpose of this paper is to determine if perception of government sources related to trust and credibility has changed since the 2016 election and if the experiences and strategies of librarians who teach or consult about government information has changed in response to this environment. Design/methodology/approach A 24-question survey was distributed to garner qualitative and quantitative responses from librarians who teach or consult about government information in an academic environment. A total of 122 responses were used for analysis. Findings Academic librarians are seeing more concern from patrons about disappearing online government information and wider distrust of government information. Librarians also noticed that the political leanings of students color their perspective around government sources and that librarians also need to keep their political beliefs in check. Respondents emphasized a need for more government literacy and information literacy topics when discussing evaluation of government sources. Research limitations/implications The data collection only included responses from academic librarians. Further research could include in-depth interviews and look at experiences in various library types. Originality/value With the timeliness of this topic, there has not been an in-depth investigation into how the Trump administration has changed user trust and perception of government sources from the librarian’s point of view. This paper continues the conversation about how librarians can address the growing distrust of government information and give us insight into the effects of a turbulent political climate on government sources.
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Shilaho, Westen K. "‘I do not know who won the elections’: How Not to Conduct Elections and Kenya’s Democratic Reversals." Politeia 33, no. 3 (October 6, 2017): 44–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.25159/0256-8845/3274.
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The role of election management bodies (EMBs) in consolidation of democracy, peace and stability in Africa cannot be overemphasised. Kenya’s electoral bodies have struggled to assert their autonomy from the executive, a prerequisite for credible elections, since the advent of multiparty politics in 1991. The violently disputed presidential elections in 2007 were partly triggered by a partisan and politicised electoral body. The Chairman of the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) controversially declared the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, winner, igniting unprecedented ethnic violence. In the midst of the crisis, he explosively confessed that he did not know who won the elections. The 2013 elections were meant to restore Kenyans’ confidence in elections. However, Raila Odinga, the controversial presidential loser in 2007, once again accused the electoral body, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), of electoral fraud in favour of Uhuru Kenyatta. Consequently, the opposition called for the disbandment of the IEBC. Are electoral bodies per se the cause of perennial disputed elections in Kenya?
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McMillan, Alistair. "The Election Commission of India and the Regulation and Administration of Electoral Politics." Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 11, no. 2 (June 2012): 187–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/elj.2011.0134.
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Martini, Rina. "PEMILIHAN PEJABAT NEGARA PADA LEMBAGA NEGARA PENUNJANG DALAM SISTEM PRESIDENSIAL: STUDI KASUS KPU RI PERIODE 2017-2022." Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik 10, no. 1 (April 30, 2019): 57. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/politika.10.1.2019.57-77.
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This research focuses on the involvement of President and Parliament in the selection of committees in General Election Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum/KPU). This article uses Douglas Verney's theory on the principles of presidential government system as an analytical lens. This research found that theselection processes of KPU's committees, 2017-2022, that involved national parliamentary body has been procedurally proven to follow Law No. 15/2011. Yet, some effort to include party's interest within is also visible. Meanwhile, President's involvement in the process is done through the formation of Selection Team appointed directly from President's close network. In both processes, there is bargaining process that requires the prospectus KPU committees to have commitment to support each party's interest (president and parties in parliamentary body). As such, it is clear there is a tendency to politicize the institution from each institution, and therefore, there is a crucial need for revising regulation on election commission.
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Klobucar, Thomas F., Arthur H. Miller, and Gwyn Erb. "The 1999 Ukrainian Presidential Election: Personalities, Ideology, Partisanship, and the Economy." Slavic Review 61, no. 2 (2002): 315–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2697120.
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The 1999 Ukrainian presidential election took place during a period of extreme political turmoil. The excitement of democracy had waned, the economy spiraled ever downward, and charges of corruption among the administration seemed the harbinger of communist victory. Nevertheless, Ukrainian voters returned Leonid Kuchma to the helm. Thomas F. Klobucar, Arthur H. Miller, and Gwyn Erb investigate this curious result, using a model that combines economic evaluations, the candidates’ personalities, and ideology. Relatively well-developed partisanship is present in Ukraine and was a major influence on voters’ choice. Surprisingly, economic evaluations had little impact on the Ukrainian vote. Instead, party identification, ideology, and leadership trait assessments led Ukrainians to vote for the “democrat.”
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Mendoza Aviña, Marco, and Semra Sevi. "Did exposure to COVID-19 affect vote choice in the 2020 presidential election?" Research & Politics 8, no. 3 (July 2021): 205316802110415. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/20531680211041505.
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An important body of literature shows that citizens evaluate elected officials based on their past performance. In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, the conventional wisdom in both media and academic discourse was that Donald Trump would have been a two-term president absent an unprecedented, global force majeure. In this research note, we address a simple question: did exposure to COVID-19 impact vote choice in the 2020 presidential election? Using data from the Cooperative Election Study, we find that Trump’s vote share decreased because of COVID-19. However, there is no evidence suggesting that Joe Biden loses the election when no voter reports exposure to coronavirus cases and deaths. These negligible effects are found at both the national and state levels, and are robust to an exhaustive set of confounders across model specifications.