Academic literature on the topic 'Private sector credit'

The study examined the determinant of private sector credit and its implication on economic growth in Nigeria. The fluctuation in the supply of money and credit is the basic causal factor at work in cyclical process; when money supply falls, prices decrease, profit decrease, production activities become sluggish and production falls and when money supply expands, price rise, profit increase and the total output increases and finally growth takes place. The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between Private Sector Credit and Gross Domestic Product. Data were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Simple regression analysis was used to achieve the stated objective. It was revealed in the determinant of credit supply equation 1 that there was significant relationship between Total credits to private sector and money supply in Nigeria. It was also discovered in the Private Sector Credit and Economic Growth Equation 2 that there was significant relationship between private sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that there should be persistence increase of money supply to Nigerian economy in order to increase the flow of credit to the real sector of the Nigerian economy, financial institutions should distribute more credit to the real sector for productive purposes in order to increase Gross domestic product.

This study examined the effect of money supply on private sector funding in Nigeria. The purpose of the study was to examine the extent to which monetary policy affect private sector funding in Nigeria. Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1985-2018. Credit to private sector, credit to core private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector was used as dependent variables while narrow money supply, broad money supply, large money supply, private sector demand deposit was used as independent variables. Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration test, normalized co-integrating equations, parsimonious vector error correction model and pair-wise causality tests were used to conduct the investigations and analysis. The empirical findings revealed that money supply explains 82.1 percent variation on credit to core private sector, 85.2 percent and 23.4 percent of the variation in credit to private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector. The study conclude that money supply has significant relationship with credit to private sector, credit to core private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector. From the findings, the study recommends that Central Bank of Nigeria should induce the variations of the amount of money changes through the nominal interest rates. That the monetary authorities should ensure adequate quantity of money supply that positively affect private sector funding in Nigeria.

Using a series of econometric techniques, the study analysed interaction between monetary policy and private sector credit in Ghana. This study made use of monthly dataset spanning January 1999 to December 2019 of credit to the private sector (PSC) and broad money supply (M2). The results reveal that there exists cointegration, a long run stationary relation between monetary policy and private sector credit. This implies, increases in credit should prompt long-term increases in monetary policy. It is not surprising that growth in the private sector might have a stronger effect on monetary policy. The Error Correction Test is statistically significant and that all the variables demonstrate similar adjustment speeds. This implies that in the short run, both money supply and credit are somewhat equally responsive to their last period’s equilibrium error. There is unidirectional causation from private sector credit to monetary policy. It can be said that, there is an interaction between money supply and private sector credit. Thus, credit to private sector holds great potential in promoting economic growth. It can be recommended to the government to increase the credit flow to the private sector because of its strategic importance in creating and generating growth of the economy.

This study empirically examined the effect of deposit money banks policy on private sector funding in Nigeria. Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1985-2018. Credit to private sector, credit to core private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises was used as dependent variables while liquidity ratio and loan to deposit ratio was used as independent variables. Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration test, normalized co-integrating equations, parsimonious vector error correction model and pair-wise causality tests were used to conduct the investigations and analysis. The empirical findings revealed that deposit money banks policy explains 40.8 percent variation on credit to core private sector, 28.1 percent and 58.9 percent of the variation in credit to core private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector. The study conclude that deposit money banks policy has no significant relationship with credit to private sector and credit to core private sector but has significant relation with credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector. From the findings, the study recommends compliance to deposit money banks policies; this will enhance effective financial intermediation and increase funding of the private sector. There is also need for the regulatory authorities to harmonize the various deposit money banks policies with the objective of enhancing private sector funding. There is need to decentralize the operation of the deposit money banks in the urban cities. Policies should be formulated to extend the operation of the deposit money banks to the rural communities, this will enable the institutions to mobilize much deposit and increase credit to the private sector.

There is some level of uncertainty as to whether private sector credit interacts with finance sources for growth to significantly influence channeling funds for investible purposes in Nigeria, given the nation’s unique characteristics. This study examines the role of various sources of growth finance on private sector credit in Nigeria. For this purpose, the study utilizes secondary data (1980–2018) sourced from CBN statistical annual reports. The study further employs the ARDL-Bounds Co-integration test to test out the hypothesis after stationarity testing. The study finds that stock market capitalization had a positive and significant influence on private sector credit compared to remittance inflows and gross domestic savings in the long run among the sources of growth finance indicators. Furthermore, remittance inflows reported a positive but statistically insignificant relationship, while gross domestic savings had a negative and insignificant coefficient. The study concludes that only stock market development inflow transmits to the private sector’s credit at 10 percent among the various growth finance sources.

Abstract The majority of household savings are in the form of bank deposits. It is therefore of interest for credit institutions to tailor their deposit policy for getting finances from non-banking entities and to provide the private sector with the loans that are necessary for investment activities and consumption. This paper deals with the determinants of the saving rate of the private sector of Slovakia. Economic, financial and demographic variables influence savings. Growth of income per capita, private disposable income, elderly dependency ratio, real interest rate and inflation have a positive impact on savings, while increases in public savings indicate a crowding out effect. The inflation rate implies precautionary savings, and dependency ratio savings for bequest. There are also implications for governing institutions deciding on the implementation of appropriate fiscal and monetary operations.

The present paper has been conducted to examine the comparative relationship of two variables namely, deposits and credit deployment of public sector and private sector banks during the period from 2007 to 2021. For analysis purpose, the study has been used secondary data and to analyze it, a number of techniques, namely, mean, standard deviation, coefficient variation, compound annual growth rate and credit-deposit ratio have been used. The study found that the CAGR of total credit of private sector banks is 16.63 percent which is higher than public sector banks which has just only 10.64 percent. The findings of the study reveals that the credit deposit ratio of private sector banks is higher than public sector banks during the study period. On the basis of analysis, the study further found that the private sector banks have highest CAGR in case of the population group where distribution of credit as compared to public sector. Overall, the study found that the performance of private sector banks is better than public sector banks as per given variables during the study period. Therefore, the study recommends a number of constructive measures to public sector banks for the improvement in deposit and credit deployment schemes in the future. Keywords: Banking, Credit, Deposit, Deployment, CAGR, Standard Deviation.

The rapid growth of financial deepening raises the problem of its effect, beneficial for economic development. This paper aims to demonstrate the relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth, GNI per capita) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) in 142 countries, split into four income groups, over 2000–2020, using correlation analysis and data from the World Bank and the IMF. Besides, a comparative analysis of domestic credit to the private sector, economic freedom, Gini index, total government expenditure and national savings of countries that increased their income group status over 2011–2020 is presented. Financial deepening (increased credit availability and expansion of domestic credit to the private sector) encourages economic growth (via GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth). Although the presence of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) over 1991–2020 is insufficient, there is a linear relationship between GNI per capita and credit availability, between credit availability and domestic credit to the private sector for the same sample of countries over 2000–2020. Meanwhile, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the correlation between GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth. Given the revealed linear correlation between domestic credit to the private sector and GNI per capita, financial deepening positively impacts income growth, and this dependence strengthens with increasing income levels. Target values of domestic credit to the private sector are proposed for the income group transition. AcknowledgmentThe paper was funded as a part of the “Relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Ukraine” research project (No. 0121U110766), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

AbstractThe study focused on financial sector development and manufacturing performance in Nigeria over the period of 1981 to 2015. In the study, three indicators such as manufacturing capacity utilization, manufacturing output and manufacturing value added were employed to proxy manufacturing performance while money supply as a percentage of GDP, domestic credit to the private sector and liquidity ratio were employed to proxy financial development. The study observed that credit to the private sector and money supply positively but insignificantly enhanced capacity utilization and output, but negatively impacted value added of the manufacturing sector in the short run. There is slight improvement in the long where both money supply and credit to private sector exert positive impact manufactured output. Hence, it becomes crucial for commercial banks to make available certain percentage of their profits for industrial expansion in order to create linkages between both sectors.

Credit, to the private sector, is a critical component in driving growth and development the world over. In Africa, the level of credit advanced to the private sector as a percentage of GDP seems to have lagged other more developed regions at 46% of GDP in 2015, in comparison to 120% of global GDP. This study seeks to examine the macro-economic determinants of private sector credit growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The study focuses on independent variables GDP growth (GDP), money supply (M2), inflation (CPI) and interest rates (INTR). Using a panel data approach, twelve sub-Saharan countries are analysed with data observed over a thirty-six-year period, from 1980 to 2015. The size of the panel of countries was determined by the availability of data points on all variables that enabled a balanced panel. Both the random effects and the fixed effects estimation techniques are computed with the random effects method being more significant in the regression analysis, exploring the relationships between the independent variables and the dependent variable. The key findings of the study are that money supply is a significant determinant of private sector credit growth in sub-Saharan Africa showing a positive correlation coefficient. A percentage increase in M2 results in an increase of 0.9% in credit to the private sector. Inflation, on the other hand, dampens the growth in credit to the private sector with a significant negative correlation: a percentage increase results in a reduction of 0.06% in credit to the private sector. GDP growth was statistically insignificant in determining private sector credit growth, with recessionary periods experienced by the sample countries yielding a marginal negative correlation coefficient. Interest rates were also statistically insignificant with a negative correlation to private sector credit showing that credit growth was driven by the underlying need, rather than the cost of credit, in sub-Saharan Africa. It is recommended that policy makers and African governments formulate macro-economic policy that delicately balances the need to drive growth in required money supply, while at the same time maintaining stability in the rate of inflation and related variables. It is also recommended that Financial institutions implement strategies that prioritise mobilisation of loanable funds over interest rate margins. Private sector players are encouraged to focus on promoting investment-led credit consumption in key sectors of the African economy.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais
A investigação teórica tem demonstrado que um sistema financeiro sólido e eficaz é fundamental para o desenvolvimento e crescimento económico (Beck, 2002). Assim, compreender o papel do sector bancário no sistema financeiro é uma das questões fundamentais da teoria económica e financeira. Este estudo tem os seguintes objetivos: compreender o funcionamento do sector bancário angolano; analisar a evolução do crédito concedido pela banca comercial e, demonstrar a contribuição do sector bancário angolano no processo de crescimento económico. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida com base na análise de dados anuais provenientes do boletim estatístico do BNA, durante o período 2003-Junho 2013. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o sector bancário angolano apresenta uma situação de estabilidade financeira, sendo o aumento da procura interna pelos serviços bancários e a situação macroeconómica do país, considerados como fatores impulsionadores do seu crescimento. Verificou-se ainda que o PIB e o crédito por sectores de atividade económica têm uma forte correlação em dois sectores: Pescas e Indústria transformadora. Concludentemente, considera-se que este estudo representa um contributo para melhor entender o papel do sector bancário angolano no processo de crescimento económico.
The theoretical research has shown that a strong and effective financial system is critical to the development and economic growth (Beck, 2002). Thus, understanding the role of the banking sector in the financial system is one of the fundamental issues of economic and financial theory. This study has the following objectives: understanding the functioning of the Angolan banking sector; analyze the evolution of credit extended by commercial banks, and demonstrate the contribution of the Angolan banking sector in the economic growth process. The survey was developed based on the analysis of data from the annual statistical bulletin from BNA, during the Period (2003- Jun 2013). The results showed that the Angolan banking sector presents a situation of financial stability, and the rising domestic demand for banking services and the macroeconomic situation of the country, considered as drivers of growth factors. It was also found that GDP and credit by economic activity have a strong correlation in two sectors: Fisheries and Manufacturing. Conclusively, it is considered that this study represents a contribution to better understand the role of the Angolan banking sector in the economic growth process.

The banking industry in India has undergone many phases in its history; evolving from a regulated, decentralised system in the early 1800’s, to a regulated, centralised system during British rule, to a nationalised system following India’s independence, and finally a combination of a nationalised and private system adopting global standards as it currently stands. This study has two main aims. Firstly, it will assess the relationship between the firm-specific determinants of capital structure, based on the prevailing literature, and the capital structure of public and private sector banks in India. Secondly, it will determine whether there is a difference in the firm-specific factors that contribute to the determination of the capital structure of public sector banks and private sector banks. This study adopts quantitative methods, similar to previous studies on the relationship between capital structure and its firm-specific determinants. The dependent variable, being total leverage, is regressed against multiple independent variables, being profitability, growth, firm size and credit risk (hereinafter referred to as “risk” unless otherwise indicated) in a multivariate linear regression model. This study adds to the current literature by applying the same firm-specific independent variables to the case of private and public sector banks and then to evaluate and compare the similarities and differences between the regression outputs. The results show that for private sector banks, all independent variables are statistically significant in explaining total leverage, where all the independent variables conform to the current literature on capital structure – profitability (-), firm size (-), growth (+) and credit risk (-). Conversely, for public sector banks, all independent variables were considered to be statistically significant, except for credit risk – profitability (-), firm size (+) and growth (+). These results imply that credit risk is not an important determination in a nationalised banks’ capital structure; thus, providing evidence for the moral hazard theory of public sector banks.

The government of Ghana borrows from both domestic and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit. By the year 2013, the domestic debt was 55% of the public debt. Government domestic borrowing is competitive and can potentially crowd out the private corporate sector. Therefore, the specific research problem addressed in this study was whether the Ghanaian government's domestic debt (DEBT) caused financial crowding out (FCO) in Ghana. FCO theory is not conclusive and not proven specifically for Ghana, so the purpose of this research was to investigate its presence in Ghana. The neoclassical theory of FCO underpinned the research. The 2 research questions investigated FCO along the quantity and cost channels. The research examined the relationship between DEBT as the independent variable, the quantity of private sector credit (PSCREDIT), and the net interest margin (NIM) of banks as dependent variables. Covariates were macroeconomic and banking industry variables. The research population was the banking sector of the financial services industry. The research was correlational, and it used time series data from the Bank of Ghana and the World Bank. Data analysis used the autoregressive distributed lag method. The analysis returned a negative relationship between DEBT and PSCREDIT, and a positve relationship between NIM and DEBT. These results indicated the presence of FCO along both the quantity and cost channels. The research provides policymakers a means of quantifying the extent and effects of fiscal policies. The study may contribute to positive social change by promoting the revision of fiscal policies to favor the private corporate sector to invest, create jobs, and grow the Ghanaian economy.

Financial development, especially through the mechanism of private sector credit lines, has an important role to play in an economy’s growth. As such, economies with better financial institutions for lending and borrowing funds have the potential to grow faster. This is so because better financial systems alleviate external financing constraints that may hinder business growth and expansion. In light of this, the study investigated the relationship between private sector credit extension and economic growth in Namibia. Using quarterly data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other variables covering the years from 2005 to 2017. The study employed co-integration and error correction procedures. From the results the study concluded that there is an existence of a positive relationship between private sector credit extension (PSCE) and economic growth. Our findings are consistent with theoretical propositions. The causality test indicated a unidirectional relationship running from PSCE to GDP entailing that the extension of credit to the private sector would enhance GDP growth and not vice versa. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the policy makers focus on long term economic growth policies, develop the financial sector, promote the development of efficient financial markets and infrastructure in order to increase the private sector credit lines which are instrumental in long term growth.

This study assesses the impact on agricultural productivity of the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) as well as the impact of credit provided to small-scale farmers by commercial banks. It compares the two strategies by government (i.e. FISP which is a government subsidy programme and government grants to commercial banks for on-ward lending to small-scale farmers). This is to determine which policy intervention is promoting agricultural growth among the targeted farmers. The study hypothesises that subsidies through FISP and credit from private lending institutions allow farmers to have access to production inputs and reduces production costs. This enables farmers to maximise output leading to an increase in productivity and growth. This study was done by conducting a survey and data was collected using a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) criterion are the methods used and the tool for analysis was the Statistical Package for Social Scientist (SPSS). Simple random multistage stratified purposive sampling was used in selecting household respondents. Multistage in the sense that the farm settlements were not defined in a particular pattern with house numbers. Stratified purposive sampling in the sense that farmers had to be separated according to the kind of institution they benefited from. The sample size for the study was 140 individual household for small-scale farmers. Major findings of the study showed that loan beneficiary farmers were investing more in productive assets compared to FISP beneficiary farmers. They had even showed elements of diversification as they were investing more in small livestock such as chickens, goats and pigs unlike the FISP beneficiaries. They had also spent a total of Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) 48, 100 compared to ZMW 28, 462 spent by FISP beneficiaries on productive assets. In terms of investments for assets used in the home, we concluded that both groups had a similar lifestyle but FISP farmers had a higher standard of living compared to loan beneficiary farmers as they had spent 10.6% more in terms of expenditure. The field plots under cultivation were grouped into three categories, i.e. farmers who cultivated plots below 2.5 hectares, 2.6 hectares to 5.0 hectares and above 5.1 hectares to assess which category of farmers was showing growth in terms of land under cultivation. For the 11% FISP beneficiaries who had graduated from the below 2.5 hectares of land being ploughed to the middle bracket, only 1% of the farmers managed to sustain their increase in ploughed land. There were no farmers who managed to plough above 5.1 hectares of land under the FISP category. As for the loan beneficiary group, we see movement in all three categories indicating growth in terms of productivity. We noticed that from the 4% farmers who managed to graduate from the below 2.5 hectares category to the 2.6 hectares to 5.0 hectares category, a further 3% of the beneficiaries managed to graduate to the above 5.1 hectares of area ploughed. We determined variability in output by examining its relationship with independent variables such as educational level attained, fertiliser quantity used, maize seed quantity used and access to assets (oxen) ceteris paribus. Only fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use were found to be statistically significant with p-values below 5% and 10% significant levels respectively in both cases. A 1 kilogram (kg) increase in fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use would result in a 0.69% and 0.26% increase respectively in the quantity of 50 kg bags harvested for FISP beneficiary farmers. A 1 kg increase in fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use would result in a 0.83% and 0.11% increase in the quantity of 50 kg bags of maize harvested by the loan beneficiary farmers. Comparing the two beneficiary groups in terms of productivity and income earned through the sale of maize on the market, the loan beneficiary group was found to be doing far much better compared to the FISP group. In the 2009/10 farming season, the loan group sold a total of 6754 bags of maize compared to 3428 bags sold by the FISP group. In the 2010/11 farming season, the loan group sold 7769 bags as opposed to the 4606 bags sold by the FISP group while in the 2011/12 farming season, the loan group sold a total of 9151 bags of maize on both markets compared to 4822 bags of maize that was sold by the FISP group. Though it may be difficult to distinguish the real effects of both the FISP and loan programme on its beneficiaries due to lack of baseline information based on regression results alone, and claim that it has made either group better than the other, it is clear that the fertiliser support policy is working better for loan beneficiaries when compared to FISP beneficiaries. This gives them an edge in income over FISP beneficiaries and graduates them into higher brackets of productivity and asset possession leading to higher yields, more income and increased growth in agricultural productivity in general. It is recommended that educational level attained should be one of the major criteria for farmer selection when introducing new advanced technologies to increase productivity. The other recommendation is that, to invest in improved ploughing methods such as use of oxen, the area under cultivation should not be less than 2.5 hectares. It is also recommended that government should increase service delivery in an efficient manner as it has positive externalities on farmers dealing with the private sector as well other than just those targeted farmers they are servicing under the FISP programme.
Dissertation (MScAgric)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
tm2015
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
MScAgric
Unrestricted

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O presente trabalho analisa a influência do crédito ao setor privado no ciclo de crédito experimentado pela economia brasileira entre 2003 e 2017. A motivação advém das mais recentes contribuições teóricas e empíricas publicadas após a crise financeira global sobre o papel dos aceleradores financeiros e mecanismos de transmissão em gerar fragilidades financeiras de caráter sistêmico. Conclusões em Adrian e Shin (2010) serão o ponto de partida, onde fatores que impactam o capital de intermediários financeiros operam como importantes canais de propagação de choques. A forte expansão do setor financeiro naquele período, junto a um crescimento sem precedentes do endividamento do setor privado, provém um cenário propício para testar este insight. Um modelo de Vetor de Correção de Erros (VECM) será estimado para identificar tendências comuns entre variáveis reais e financeiras, assim como identificar impactos decorrentes de choques e causalidade entre variáveis associadas a crédito, alavancagem, atividade, colaterais e oferta de fundos. Desta forma, a pesquisa espera contribuir à compressão daquele episódio, assim preenchendo um vácuo no debate polarizado entre aqueles que vêm o país como vítima de condições internacionais adversas, e outros que responsabilizam uma longa história de políticas econômicas equivocadas pela crise.
This monograph evaluates the role played by the credit to the private sector on the boom-bust cycle experienced by the Brazilian economy between 2003-2017. The study is motivated by recent theoretical and empirical contributions arriving after the Global Financial Crisis on the role played by financial accelerators and transmission channels in driving systemic financial fragility. It departs from a key insight from Adrian and Shin (2010) where factors affecting the equity base of financial intermediaries operate as a powerful transmission channel for shocks. The strong expansion of the financial activities during the period, coupled with the unprecedent growth of debt and leverage of the non-financial private sector, provide a promising scenario to test that insight. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) will be applied to identify common trends on financial and real variables to help to identify effects from shocks and causalities comprising variables related to debt, leverage, activity, collaterals, and funds supply. Thus, it aims at shedding new lights on the comprehension of that episode, so filling a gap on this debate polarized between those who see Brazil as a victim of a stressed global economy, and others who blame a long account of derailing economic policies in driving this fate.

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The objective of this work is to examine the level of bank credit in Brazil in the period after the Real Plan. To this, the work uses the Barajas and Steiner (2002) methodology but with a larger country sample (Brazil among nine Latin American countries and other forty outside Latin America). The results suggest that bank credit has not grown as expected and is still as volatile as the Latin America average. The size of the Brazilian banking system is not small as expected, but is less prone to lending to the private sector. Credit to the public sector still occupies a very important share of the Brazilian banking system balance sheet. About this matter the work shows that an increase in securitization could increase significantly the credit to the private sector.
O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar o nível de crédito bancário no Brasil no período pós implantação do Plano Real. Para isso, o trabalho utiliza a metodologia de Barajas e Steiner (2002) mas utilizando uma amostra maior de países (além da economia brasileira, nove países da América Latina e quarenta não América Latina). Os resultados encontrados mostram que o crédito bancário historicamente não cresceu como o esperado e ainda é tão volátil quanto a média América latina. O sistema bancário não mostrou-se menor do que o esperado para a economia brasileira, mas é menos propenso ao crédito ao setor privado. O crédito ao setor público ainda ocupa uma fatia muito relevante no balanço do agregado bancário e sobre esse respeito o trabalho mostra que um aumento na securitização e cessão de crédito aumenta significativamente o crédito ao setor privado.

AbstractIn this final chapter we discuss the book’s key findings. We first recap the operations of our current system and the problems it presents. We then discuss how the alternative of sovereign money would work and whether switching systems would be desirable. Finally, we consider what steps can be taken to address the major problems posed by the current system. We recommend restoring the balanced growth of credit and debt, and striking a better balance between public and private interests. This entails fostering greater diversity in the financial sector, curbing the excessive growth of debt, being prepared for the next crisis, and anchoring the public dimension of the banking system.

AbstractThe first part of this chapter considers future biometrics, with a focus on second generation biometrics that measure physiological patterns. The second discusses the potential biometric future – how the use of biometrics, data and algorithms more broadly, could be used by governments to regulate social and economic interactions. This discussion will draw on the development of credit systems, from those used in commercial online platforms to rate the performance of providers and users, to the more integrated and all-encompassing social credit system (SCS) implemented in China, as an example of a potential future development in liberal democratic countries. Finally, we discuss the key features of liberal democratic theory and how biometric and related technological developments may change governance in western democracies. While we briefly mention some relevant developments in the private sector, our main focus will be on the relationship between liberal democratic governments and their security agencies, on the one hand, and their citizenry, on the other. We describe in general terms how liberal democracies might respond to these new technologies in a manner that preserves their benefits without unduly compromising established liberal democratic institutions, principles and values. Accordingly, we seek to offer a response to some of the dual use ethical dilemmas posed by biometrics, albeit in general terms.

AbstractReversing land degradation and achieving ecosystem restoration and management are routes to climate change adaptation and mitigation. The financial resources to achieve this are increasingly available. A major challenge is the absence of scalable mechanisms that can incentivize rapid change for rural communities at the decade-long time scale needed to respond to the climate emergency. Despite moves toward inclusive green finance (IGF), a major structural gap remains between the funding available and the unbankable small-scale producers who are stewards of ecosystems. This chapter reports on inclusive finance that can help fill this gap and incentivizes improved ecosystem stewardship, productivity, and wealth creation. A key feature is the concept of eco-credit to build ecosystem management and restorative behaviors into loan terms. Eco-credit provides an approach for overcoming income inequality within communities to enhance the community-level ecosystem governance and stewardship. The paper discusses the experience of implementing the Community Environment Conservation Fund (CECF) over a 8-year-period from 2012. The CECF addresses the unbankable 80% of community members who cannot access commercial loans, has c. 20,000 users in Uganda and pilots in Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania. The model is contextualized alongside complementary mechanisms that can also incentivize improved ecosystem governance as well as engage and align communities, government, development partners, and the private sector. This complementary infrastructure includes commercial eco-credit as exemplified by the Climate Smart Lending Platform, and the community finance of the Village Savings and Loans Associations (VSLA) model upon which CECF builds. The paper describes the technologies and climate finance necessary for significant scale-up.

AbstractReversing land degradation and achieving ecosystem restoration and management are routes to climate change adaptation and mitigation. The financial resources to achieve this are increasingly available. A major challenge is the absence of scalable mechanisms that can incentivize rapid change for rural communities at the decade-long time scale needed to respond to the climate emergency. Despite moves toward inclusive green finance (IGF), a major structural gap remains between the funding available and the unbankable small-scale producers who are stewards of ecosystems. This paper reports on inclusive finance that can help fill this gap and incentivizes improved ecosystem stewardship, productivity, and wealth creation. A key feature is the concept of eco-credit to build ecosystem management and restorative behaviors into loan terms. Eco-credit provides an approach for overcoming income inequality within communities to enhance the community-level ecosystem governance and stewardship. The paper discusses the experience of implementing the Community Environment Conservation Fund (CECF) over a 8-year-period from 2012. The CECF addresses the unbankable 80% of community members who cannot access commercial loans, has c. 20,000 users in Uganda and pilots in Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania. The model is contextualized alongside complementary mechanisms that can also incentivize improved ecosystem governance as well as engage and align communities, government, development partners, and the private sector. This complementary infrastructure includes commercial eco-credit as exemplified by the Climate Smart Lending Platform, and the community finance of the Village Savings and Loans Associations (VSLA) model upon which CECF builds. The paper describes the technologies and climate finance necessary for significant scale-up.

AbstractThis chapter focuses on instruments aimed at mitigating specific investment risks, including political, credit, currency and liquidity risks. It explores solutions emanating from both the public and private sectors.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth and the direction of causality between them have been received a lot of attention recently by many scholars. It is also important to analyze this relationship and the direction of causality due to implications of policies. In this study the relationship between financial development, trade liberalization and economic growth for Turkey are examined using three different models. Model 1, 2 and 3 investigate the effect of domestic loans to the private sector and trade liberalization on GDP, the impact of the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector and trade liberalization on GDP and the effect of M2 money supply and M2 trade liberalization on GDP, respectively. Data extracted from World Development Indicators. Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) is used as a co-integration test to determine the long run relationship between variables. In addition, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is utilized to test the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth according to the three financial indicators such as domestic loans to the private sector, the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector and M2 money supply. According to the results there is a unidirectional relationship from economic growth to domestic loans to the private sector and the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector. Additionally, the results indicate that a bidirectional relationship exist between M2 money supply and economic growth.

Analysing the relationship between development and Gross Domestic Products (GDP) is one of the most important issue for economics. Kuznet claims that mentioned relationships between developing and GDP resemble as upside down U. In this paper, GINI, GDP, credit and trade variables were analysed by using ARDL bounding test for the period covering by 1991-2014. Obtained results of econometric model shows that credit in private sector, GDP per capita and trade variables play an important role to be eliminated of income inequality. Effect of trade variable is less compare with other variables. For Turkish Economy, 1% increase in private credits causes to a 0,044 % fall in income inequality for the estimated period. Alike, 1% increase in income causes to a 0.055 % fall in income inequality.

As in the other countries around the world, banking systems in Eurasia economies, comprised of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, were adversely affected by the 2008 global crisis; A common challenge across most economies is to revive private-sector credit growth. Compared with the high increases of 80 percent in the period immediately prior to the crisis, credit growth has slowed sharply and even turned negative in real terms in a number of economies. Governments in many countries have taken measures to address banking sector stress. The measures for restoring credit growth and thus a high economic growth will be discussed in a part of our work. In the short run, such measures include aiding banks to repair balance sheets and also providing liquidity. In the medium term, measures should promote de-dollarization and the development of local debt markets.

The lack of financial resources in public health organizations of the Kyrgyz Republic requires the involvement of private sources of funding. Private sector involvement can take place in the construction and operation of hospitals, clinics, laboratories, and other health facilities. A prerequisite for public-private partnership is the joint financing of projects. At the same time, possible risks are shared between project participants. One of the risks is the risk associated with the unpredictability of demand for services. The emergence of partnerships that provide high-quality medical services requires a preliminary identification of risks and their effective distribution among the participants in a public-private partnership. The next type of risk is determined by such economic factors as changes in bank interest rates on loans, exchange rates, inflation rates, tax rates, which ultimately can limit the amount of credit resources and, accordingly, expected income. Risk management in a public-private partnership involves the definition of risks as expected losses associated with an increase in costs not provided for in the project, as well as a discrepancy between the expected financial results planned in the forecasts of the public-private partnership. The paper gives a description of the types of risk, the principles of their prediction and prevention.

Instabilities in the banking sector have had an adverse effect on the economy as a whole, since the largest share in the financial system and financial intermediation in Kyrgyzstan have been captured by banking sector. Economic efficiency in banking can be viewed as a source of financial stability of banking system. Economic efficiency of the banking is more important challenge not only for shareholders and managers of banks, and also for regulation and supervision authorities, and public and potential investors. The aim of this study is to examine factors affecting the banking cost efficiency for Kyrgyz banks. It is also important to choose the appropriate approach in measurement of banking cost efficiency, since there are many different methods. In this study preferred stochastic frontier approach which assumes random error term which captures sampling, measurement and specification errors. We adopted stochastic cost frontier model proposed by Battese ve Coelli (1995) which also allow to examine investigate the impact of variables on efficiency. We used unbalanced panel data set captured 17-23 Kyrgyz commercial banks for period of 2000-2013. Obtained results suggest that capitalization, foreign ownership, credit risk, liquidity risk and currency risk have most influence on cost efficiency scores of banks calculated averagely at level of 0,766. Overall results indicate that domestic banks more cost efficient than domestic private and foreign banks. Average cost efficiency scores of domestic banks, foreign and separately public banks are 0,848; 0,649 and 0,875, respectively.

The article presents the material about the formation of the commercial banking sector of the Irkutsk region in the conditions of perestroika and transition to market relations. The main attention is paid to the history of the creation of commercial banks in the region. Their growth is associated with the tasks of destroying the monopoly of the state credit system and the development of private competition. On the example of the Irkutsk province, the features of the formation of the commercial banking system, the growth and liquidation of most banks are revealed, and the characteristics of the most stable commercial banks in the region are given.

This article presents the synthesis of research activities on the evaluation methodology of the financial system, including its components through the lens of the objective of ensuring sustainable economic growth. The objectives pursued in the evaluation process, the system of indicators and the necessary arguments are formulated. The authors evaluate the financial system in Israel and the Republic of Moldova, including whether its are market-oriented and sufficiently open, efficient and solid; if high standards of transparency, trust and integrity are met. Next, the relationship between the financial system and economic growth in a small open economy of Israel and the Republic of Moldova is empirically examined. The analysis is carried out using two indicators to measure the level of financial development. The first indicator is the financial depth or size of the financial intermediaries sector, measured by the monetization ratio (M2/GDP). The second indicator is the ratio of credit granted to the private sector by commercial banks as a percentage of GDP (financial intermediation ratio).

Banks had a crucial role in both major crises that hit the globe in the last fifteen years. While they were held responsible for onset of the global financial crisis in 2007, banks, oppositely, greatly contributed in mitigating the negative effects of recent health crisis caused by COVID- 19. The latter calamity showed us that certain natural events can represent significant threat not only to human lives and health but also to financial markets. Apart from pandemic, there is another nature related threat on the financial market horizon – the climate change. Recent actions on EU and international level show that role of the banks in tackling climate change crisis would not be negligible. For decades there were multiple attempts to encourage governments to take bolder measures to combat climate change by signing various international agreements. Nonetheless, only the Paris Agreement, that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emission to achieve a climate neutral world by 2050, proved to be a real game changer. Ever since the Agreement entered into force in 2015, there is a continuous and significant rise in climate change litigations. Such litigations are initiated primarily against governments for not reaching the Paris Agreements goals, but also against private sector – notably the emitters of CO2. However, not only are CO2 emitters held personally responsible for environmental damage in legal proceedings conducted, but also other parties that could influence CO2 emissions. Banks can indirectly influence CO2 emission, for example by providing credit lines to carbonintensive sectors. However, this indirect influence of banks to climate change is still not specifically recognized and regulated. Analysis of the climate change litigation landmark cases shows that national jurisdictions do not contain the legal basis for climate change responsibility stricto sensu. This legislative shortcoming is, however, overcome by interpreting legal principles and human rights obligations that arise from various international documents. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to ascertain is there a real climate change litigation risk for EU banks? Could banks, as private entities, be held responsible for contribution to climate change by invoking human rights? If the answer is affirmative, what can banks do in order to mitigate this risk? And finally, according to existing legal framework, are Croatian banks exposed to climate change litigation risk?

Abstract Energies may be described as brown, blue or green. Brown energies are CO2-emitting fossil fuels. Blue energies employ carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to remove the emitted CO2 from brown energies. Green energies are zero or low CO2-emitting renewable energies. Likewise, energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen may be described as brown, blue or green if they are produced from brown, blue or green energy, respectively. The transition from a high carbon intensity to a low carbon intensity economy will require the decarbonization of three major sectors: power, transport and industry. By analyzing the CO2 intensity and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of energy and energy carriers of different colors, we show that renewable energies are best used in replacing fossil fuels in the power sector where it has the most impact in reducing CO2 emission. This will consume the majority of new additions to renewable energies in the near to medium future. Consequently, the decarbonation of the transport and industry sectors must begin with the use of blue electricity, blue fossil fuels and blue hydrogen. To achieve this, implementation of large-scale CCS projects will be necessary, especially outside of USA and northern Europe. However, this will not happen until significant financial incentives in the form of carbon tax or carbon credit becomes available from national governments. Furthermore, private-public partnership and intergovernmental cooperation will be needed to implement these CCS projects.

Evidence indicates that business support to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in lower middle-income countries (LMICs) can improve firms’ performance, create jobs, and have a positive effect on labour productivity (Piza et al., 2016). The impacts of some approaches to private sector finance such as traditional loans, grants and technical assistance have been studied empirically, but there is limited evidence of the impacts of non-traditional and innovative financing instruments (Mallen & Bungey, 2019; Piza et al., 2016). Studies of financial instruments to support SMEs in LICs and LMICs tend to focus on particular markets or adaptations to traditional funding models rather than targeted outcomes such as sustainable employment creation (Mallen & Bungey, 2019). This report explores evidence on the effectiveness of financing options available to bilateral donors to promote private sector development (PSD) in LIMCs, however the evidence base for most financing instruments is extremely limited and much of the evidence is more than 5 years old. The report seeks to provide a (non-comprehensive) list of available Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) eligible options and a more detailed examination of those options for which evidence was identified for this review. An open search for evidence on PSD interventions to support SMEs in LMICs and LICs was carried out, followed by a targeted search of interventions seeking to support medium-sized enterprises (the ‘missing middle’) in Zambia specifically. The report begins with a brief overview of the ‘missing middle’ challenge in Zambia. Section 3 explores recent trends in bilateral finance for PSD. The remaining sections of the report explore available evidence on the effectiveness of specific interventions: credit guarantees, matching grants, equity investment and permanent capital vehicles, mezzanine finance, and funds of funds.

As the world economy rapidly decarbonises to meet global climate goals, the export credit sector must keep pace. Countries representing over two-thirds of global GDP have now set net zero targets, as have hundreds of private financial institutions. Public and private initiatives are now working to develop new standards and methodologies for shifting investment portfolios to decarbonisation pathways based on science. However, export credit agencies (ECAs) are only at the beginning stages of this seismic transformation. On the one hand, the net zero transition creates risks to existing business models and clients for the many ECAs, while on the other, it creates a significant opportunity for ECAs to refocus their support to help countries and trade partners meet their climate targets. ECAs can best take advantage of this transition, and minimise its risks, by setting net zero targets and adopting credible plans to decarbonise their portfolios. Collaboration across the sector can be a powerful tool for advancing this goal.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor

Banco de la República provides a comprehensive overview of Colombia’s finan¬cial infrastructure in its Payment Systems Report, which is an important product of the work it does to oversee that infrastructure. The figures published in this edition of the report are for the year 2020, a pandemic period in which the con¬tainment measures designed and adopted to alleviate the strain on the health system led to a sharp reduction in economic activity and consumption in Colom¬bia, as was the case in most countries. At the start of the pandemic, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República adopted decisions that were necessary to supply the market with ample liquid¬ity in pesos and US dollars to guarantee market stability, protect the payment system and preserve the supply of credit. The pronounced growth in mone¬tary aggregates reflected an increased preference for liquidity, which Banco de la República addressed at the right time. These decisions were implemented through operations that were cleared and settled via the financial infrastructure. The second section of this report, following the introduction, offers an analysis of how the various financial infrastructures in Colombia have evolved and per¬formed. One of the highlights is the large-value payment system (CUD), which registered more momentum in 2020 than during the previous year, mainly be¬cause of an increase in average daily remunerated deposits made with Banco de la República by the General Directorate of Public Credit and the National Treasury (DGCPTN), as well as more activity in the sell/buy-back market with sovereign debt. Consequently, with more activity in the CUD, the Central Securi¬ties Depository (DCV) experienced an added impetus sparked by an increase in the money market for bonds and securities placed on the primary market by the national government. The value of operations cleared and settled through the Colombian Central Counterparty (CRCC) continues to grow, propelled largely by peso/dollar non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. With respect to the CRCC, it is important to note this clearing house has been in charge of managing risks and clearing and settling operations in the peso/dollar spot market since the end of last year, following its merger with the Foreign Exchange Clearing House of Colombia (CCDC). Since the final quarter of 2020, the CRCC has also been re¬sponsible for clearing and settlement in the equities market, which was former¬ly done by the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC). The third section of this report provides an all-inclusive view of payments in the market for goods and services; namely, transactions carried out by members of the public and non-financial institutions. During the pandemic, inter- and intra-bank electronic funds transfers, which originate mostly with companies, increased in both the number and value of transactions with respect to 2019. However, debit and credit card payments, which are made largely by private citizens, declined compared to 2019. The incidence of payment by check contin¬ue to drop, exhibiting quite a pronounced downward trend during the past last year. To supplement to the information on electronic funds transfers, section three includes a segment (Box 4) characterizing the population with savings and checking accounts, based on data from a survey by Banco de la República con-cerning the perception of the use of payment instruments in 2019. There also is segment (Box 2) on the growth in transactions with a mobile wallet provided by a company specialized in electronic deposits and payments (Sedpe). It shows the number of users and the value of their transactions have increased since the wallet was introduced in late 2017, particularly during the pandemic. In addition, there is a diagnosis of the effects of the pandemic on the payment patterns of the population, based on data related to the use of cash in circu¬lation, payments with electronic instruments, and consumption and consumer confidence. The conclusion is that the collapse in the consumer confidence in¬dex and the drop in private consumption led to changes in the public’s pay¬ment patterns. Credit and debit card purchases were down, while payments for goods and services through electronic funds transfers increased. These findings, coupled with the considerable increase in cash in circulation, might indicate a possible precautionary cash hoarding by individuals and more use of cash as a payment instrument. There is also a segment (in Focus 3) on the major changes introduced in regulations on the retail-value payment system in Colombia, as provided for in Decree 1692 of December 2020. The fourth section of this report refers to the important innovations and tech¬nological changes that have occurred in the retail-value payment system. Four themes are highlighted in this respect. The first is a key point in building the financial infrastructure for instant payments. It involves of the design and im¬plementation of overlay schemes, a technological development that allows the various participants in the payment chain to communicate openly. The result is a high degree of interoperability among the different payment service providers. The second topic explores developments in the international debate on central bank digital currency (CBDC). The purpose is to understand how it could impact the retail-value payment system and the use of cash if it were to be issued. The third topic is related to new forms of payment initiation, such as QR codes, bio¬metrics or near field communication (NFC) technology. These seemingly small changes can have a major impact on the user’s experience with the retail-value payment system. The fourth theme is the growth in payments via mobile tele¬phone and the internet. The report ends in section five with a review of two papers on applied research done at Banco de la República in 2020. The first analyzes the extent of the CRCC’s capital, acknowledging the relevant role this infrastructure has acquired in pro¬viding clearing and settlement services for various financial markets in Colom¬bia. The capital requirements defined for central counterparties in some jurisdic¬tions are explored, and the risks to be hedged are identified from the standpoint of the service these type of institutions offer to the market and those associated with their corporate activity. The CRCC’s capital levels are analyzed in light of what has been observed in the European Union’s regulations, and the conclusion is that the CRCC has a scheme of security rings very similar to those applied internationally and the extent of its capital exceeds what is stipulated in Colombian regulations, being sufficient to hedge other risks. The second study presents an algorithm used to identify and quantify the liquidity sources that CUD’s participants use under normal conditions to meet their daily obligations in the local financial market. This algorithm can be used as a tool to monitor intraday liquidity. Leonardo Villar Gómez Governor

With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governor