Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Private sector credit'

Credit, to the private sector, is a critical component in driving growth and development the world over. In Africa, the level of credit advanced to the private sector as a percentage of GDP seems to have lagged other more developed regions at 46% of GDP in 2015, in comparison to 120% of global GDP. This study seeks to examine the macro-economic determinants of private sector credit growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The study focuses on independent variables GDP growth (GDP), money supply (M2), inflation (CPI) and interest rates (INTR). Using a panel data approach, twelve sub-Saharan countries are analysed with data observed over a thirty-six-year period, from 1980 to 2015. The size of the panel of countries was determined by the availability of data points on all variables that enabled a balanced panel. Both the random effects and the fixed effects estimation techniques are computed with the random effects method being more significant in the regression analysis, exploring the relationships between the independent variables and the dependent variable. The key findings of the study are that money supply is a significant determinant of private sector credit growth in sub-Saharan Africa showing a positive correlation coefficient. A percentage increase in M2 results in an increase of 0.9% in credit to the private sector. Inflation, on the other hand, dampens the growth in credit to the private sector with a significant negative correlation: a percentage increase results in a reduction of 0.06% in credit to the private sector. GDP growth was statistically insignificant in determining private sector credit growth, with recessionary periods experienced by the sample countries yielding a marginal negative correlation coefficient. Interest rates were also statistically insignificant with a negative correlation to private sector credit showing that credit growth was driven by the underlying need, rather than the cost of credit, in sub-Saharan Africa. It is recommended that policy makers and African governments formulate macro-economic policy that delicately balances the need to drive growth in required money supply, while at the same time maintaining stability in the rate of inflation and related variables. It is also recommended that Financial institutions implement strategies that prioritise mobilisation of loanable funds over interest rate margins. Private sector players are encouraged to focus on promoting investment-led credit consumption in key sectors of the African economy.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais
A investigação teórica tem demonstrado que um sistema financeiro sólido e eficaz é fundamental para o desenvolvimento e crescimento económico (Beck, 2002). Assim, compreender o papel do sector bancário no sistema financeiro é uma das questões fundamentais da teoria económica e financeira. Este estudo tem os seguintes objetivos: compreender o funcionamento do sector bancário angolano; analisar a evolução do crédito concedido pela banca comercial e, demonstrar a contribuição do sector bancário angolano no processo de crescimento económico. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida com base na análise de dados anuais provenientes do boletim estatístico do BNA, durante o período 2003-Junho 2013. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o sector bancário angolano apresenta uma situação de estabilidade financeira, sendo o aumento da procura interna pelos serviços bancários e a situação macroeconómica do país, considerados como fatores impulsionadores do seu crescimento. Verificou-se ainda que o PIB e o crédito por sectores de atividade económica têm uma forte correlação em dois sectores: Pescas e Indústria transformadora. Concludentemente, considera-se que este estudo representa um contributo para melhor entender o papel do sector bancário angolano no processo de crescimento económico.
The theoretical research has shown that a strong and effective financial system is critical to the development and economic growth (Beck, 2002). Thus, understanding the role of the banking sector in the financial system is one of the fundamental issues of economic and financial theory. This study has the following objectives: understanding the functioning of the Angolan banking sector; analyze the evolution of credit extended by commercial banks, and demonstrate the contribution of the Angolan banking sector in the economic growth process. The survey was developed based on the analysis of data from the annual statistical bulletin from BNA, during the Period (2003- Jun 2013). The results showed that the Angolan banking sector presents a situation of financial stability, and the rising domestic demand for banking services and the macroeconomic situation of the country, considered as drivers of growth factors. It was also found that GDP and credit by economic activity have a strong correlation in two sectors: Fisheries and Manufacturing. Conclusively, it is considered that this study represents a contribution to better understand the role of the Angolan banking sector in the economic growth process.

The banking industry in India has undergone many phases in its history; evolving from a regulated, decentralised system in the early 1800’s, to a regulated, centralised system during British rule, to a nationalised system following India’s independence, and finally a combination of a nationalised and private system adopting global standards as it currently stands. This study has two main aims. Firstly, it will assess the relationship between the firm-specific determinants of capital structure, based on the prevailing literature, and the capital structure of public and private sector banks in India. Secondly, it will determine whether there is a difference in the firm-specific factors that contribute to the determination of the capital structure of public sector banks and private sector banks. This study adopts quantitative methods, similar to previous studies on the relationship between capital structure and its firm-specific determinants. The dependent variable, being total leverage, is regressed against multiple independent variables, being profitability, growth, firm size and credit risk (hereinafter referred to as “risk” unless otherwise indicated) in a multivariate linear regression model. This study adds to the current literature by applying the same firm-specific independent variables to the case of private and public sector banks and then to evaluate and compare the similarities and differences between the regression outputs. The results show that for private sector banks, all independent variables are statistically significant in explaining total leverage, where all the independent variables conform to the current literature on capital structure – profitability (-), firm size (-), growth (+) and credit risk (-). Conversely, for public sector banks, all independent variables were considered to be statistically significant, except for credit risk – profitability (-), firm size (+) and growth (+). These results imply that credit risk is not an important determination in a nationalised banks’ capital structure; thus, providing evidence for the moral hazard theory of public sector banks.

The government of Ghana borrows from both domestic and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit. By the year 2013, the domestic debt was 55% of the public debt. Government domestic borrowing is competitive and can potentially crowd out the private corporate sector. Therefore, the specific research problem addressed in this study was whether the Ghanaian government's domestic debt (DEBT) caused financial crowding out (FCO) in Ghana. FCO theory is not conclusive and not proven specifically for Ghana, so the purpose of this research was to investigate its presence in Ghana. The neoclassical theory of FCO underpinned the research. The 2 research questions investigated FCO along the quantity and cost channels. The research examined the relationship between DEBT as the independent variable, the quantity of private sector credit (PSCREDIT), and the net interest margin (NIM) of banks as dependent variables. Covariates were macroeconomic and banking industry variables. The research population was the banking sector of the financial services industry. The research was correlational, and it used time series data from the Bank of Ghana and the World Bank. Data analysis used the autoregressive distributed lag method. The analysis returned a negative relationship between DEBT and PSCREDIT, and a positve relationship between NIM and DEBT. These results indicated the presence of FCO along both the quantity and cost channels. The research provides policymakers a means of quantifying the extent and effects of fiscal policies. The study may contribute to positive social change by promoting the revision of fiscal policies to favor the private corporate sector to invest, create jobs, and grow the Ghanaian economy.

Financial development, especially through the mechanism of private sector credit lines, has an important role to play in an economy’s growth. As such, economies with better financial institutions for lending and borrowing funds have the potential to grow faster. This is so because better financial systems alleviate external financing constraints that may hinder business growth and expansion. In light of this, the study investigated the relationship between private sector credit extension and economic growth in Namibia. Using quarterly data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other variables covering the years from 2005 to 2017. The study employed co-integration and error correction procedures. From the results the study concluded that there is an existence of a positive relationship between private sector credit extension (PSCE) and economic growth. Our findings are consistent with theoretical propositions. The causality test indicated a unidirectional relationship running from PSCE to GDP entailing that the extension of credit to the private sector would enhance GDP growth and not vice versa. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the policy makers focus on long term economic growth policies, develop the financial sector, promote the development of efficient financial markets and infrastructure in order to increase the private sector credit lines which are instrumental in long term growth.

This study assesses the impact on agricultural productivity of the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) as well as the impact of credit provided to small-scale farmers by commercial banks. It compares the two strategies by government (i.e. FISP which is a government subsidy programme and government grants to commercial banks for on-ward lending to small-scale farmers). This is to determine which policy intervention is promoting agricultural growth among the targeted farmers. The study hypothesises that subsidies through FISP and credit from private lending institutions allow farmers to have access to production inputs and reduces production costs. This enables farmers to maximise output leading to an increase in productivity and growth. This study was done by conducting a survey and data was collected using a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) criterion are the methods used and the tool for analysis was the Statistical Package for Social Scientist (SPSS). Simple random multistage stratified purposive sampling was used in selecting household respondents. Multistage in the sense that the farm settlements were not defined in a particular pattern with house numbers. Stratified purposive sampling in the sense that farmers had to be separated according to the kind of institution they benefited from. The sample size for the study was 140 individual household for small-scale farmers. Major findings of the study showed that loan beneficiary farmers were investing more in productive assets compared to FISP beneficiary farmers. They had even showed elements of diversification as they were investing more in small livestock such as chickens, goats and pigs unlike the FISP beneficiaries. They had also spent a total of Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) 48, 100 compared to ZMW 28, 462 spent by FISP beneficiaries on productive assets. In terms of investments for assets used in the home, we concluded that both groups had a similar lifestyle but FISP farmers had a higher standard of living compared to loan beneficiary farmers as they had spent 10.6% more in terms of expenditure. The field plots under cultivation were grouped into three categories, i.e. farmers who cultivated plots below 2.5 hectares, 2.6 hectares to 5.0 hectares and above 5.1 hectares to assess which category of farmers was showing growth in terms of land under cultivation. For the 11% FISP beneficiaries who had graduated from the below 2.5 hectares of land being ploughed to the middle bracket, only 1% of the farmers managed to sustain their increase in ploughed land. There were no farmers who managed to plough above 5.1 hectares of land under the FISP category. As for the loan beneficiary group, we see movement in all three categories indicating growth in terms of productivity. We noticed that from the 4% farmers who managed to graduate from the below 2.5 hectares category to the 2.6 hectares to 5.0 hectares category, a further 3% of the beneficiaries managed to graduate to the above 5.1 hectares of area ploughed. We determined variability in output by examining its relationship with independent variables such as educational level attained, fertiliser quantity used, maize seed quantity used and access to assets (oxen) ceteris paribus. Only fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use were found to be statistically significant with p-values below 5% and 10% significant levels respectively in both cases. A 1 kilogram (kg) increase in fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use would result in a 0.69% and 0.26% increase respectively in the quantity of 50 kg bags harvested for FISP beneficiary farmers. A 1 kg increase in fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use would result in a 0.83% and 0.11% increase in the quantity of 50 kg bags of maize harvested by the loan beneficiary farmers. Comparing the two beneficiary groups in terms of productivity and income earned through the sale of maize on the market, the loan beneficiary group was found to be doing far much better compared to the FISP group. In the 2009/10 farming season, the loan group sold a total of 6754 bags of maize compared to 3428 bags sold by the FISP group. In the 2010/11 farming season, the loan group sold 7769 bags as opposed to the 4606 bags sold by the FISP group while in the 2011/12 farming season, the loan group sold a total of 9151 bags of maize on both markets compared to 4822 bags of maize that was sold by the FISP group. Though it may be difficult to distinguish the real effects of both the FISP and loan programme on its beneficiaries due to lack of baseline information based on regression results alone, and claim that it has made either group better than the other, it is clear that the fertiliser support policy is working better for loan beneficiaries when compared to FISP beneficiaries. This gives them an edge in income over FISP beneficiaries and graduates them into higher brackets of productivity and asset possession leading to higher yields, more income and increased growth in agricultural productivity in general. It is recommended that educational level attained should be one of the major criteria for farmer selection when introducing new advanced technologies to increase productivity. The other recommendation is that, to invest in improved ploughing methods such as use of oxen, the area under cultivation should not be less than 2.5 hectares. It is also recommended that government should increase service delivery in an efficient manner as it has positive externalities on farmers dealing with the private sector as well other than just those targeted farmers they are servicing under the FISP programme.
Dissertation (MScAgric)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
tm2015
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
MScAgric
Unrestricted

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O presente trabalho analisa a influência do crédito ao setor privado no ciclo de crédito experimentado pela economia brasileira entre 2003 e 2017. A motivação advém das mais recentes contribuições teóricas e empíricas publicadas após a crise financeira global sobre o papel dos aceleradores financeiros e mecanismos de transmissão em gerar fragilidades financeiras de caráter sistêmico. Conclusões em Adrian e Shin (2010) serão o ponto de partida, onde fatores que impactam o capital de intermediários financeiros operam como importantes canais de propagação de choques. A forte expansão do setor financeiro naquele período, junto a um crescimento sem precedentes do endividamento do setor privado, provém um cenário propício para testar este insight. Um modelo de Vetor de Correção de Erros (VECM) será estimado para identificar tendências comuns entre variáveis reais e financeiras, assim como identificar impactos decorrentes de choques e causalidade entre variáveis associadas a crédito, alavancagem, atividade, colaterais e oferta de fundos. Desta forma, a pesquisa espera contribuir à compressão daquele episódio, assim preenchendo um vácuo no debate polarizado entre aqueles que vêm o país como vítima de condições internacionais adversas, e outros que responsabilizam uma longa história de políticas econômicas equivocadas pela crise.
This monograph evaluates the role played by the credit to the private sector on the boom-bust cycle experienced by the Brazilian economy between 2003-2017. The study is motivated by recent theoretical and empirical contributions arriving after the Global Financial Crisis on the role played by financial accelerators and transmission channels in driving systemic financial fragility. It departs from a key insight from Adrian and Shin (2010) where factors affecting the equity base of financial intermediaries operate as a powerful transmission channel for shocks. The strong expansion of the financial activities during the period, coupled with the unprecedent growth of debt and leverage of the non-financial private sector, provide a promising scenario to test that insight. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) will be applied to identify common trends on financial and real variables to help to identify effects from shocks and causalities comprising variables related to debt, leverage, activity, collaterals, and funds supply. Thus, it aims at shedding new lights on the comprehension of that episode, so filling a gap on this debate polarized between those who see Brazil as a victim of a stressed global economy, and others who blame a long account of derailing economic policies in driving this fate.

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The objective of this work is to examine the level of bank credit in Brazil in the period after the Real Plan. To this, the work uses the Barajas and Steiner (2002) methodology but with a larger country sample (Brazil among nine Latin American countries and other forty outside Latin America). The results suggest that bank credit has not grown as expected and is still as volatile as the Latin America average. The size of the Brazilian banking system is not small as expected, but is less prone to lending to the private sector. Credit to the public sector still occupies a very important share of the Brazilian banking system balance sheet. About this matter the work shows that an increase in securitization could increase significantly the credit to the private sector.
O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar o nível de crédito bancário no Brasil no período pós implantação do Plano Real. Para isso, o trabalho utiliza a metodologia de Barajas e Steiner (2002) mas utilizando uma amostra maior de países (além da economia brasileira, nove países da América Latina e quarenta não América Latina). Os resultados encontrados mostram que o crédito bancário historicamente não cresceu como o esperado e ainda é tão volátil quanto a média América latina. O sistema bancário não mostrou-se menor do que o esperado para a economia brasileira, mas é menos propenso ao crédito ao setor privado. O crédito ao setor público ainda ocupa uma fatia muito relevante no balanço do agregado bancário e sobre esse respeito o trabalho mostra que um aumento na securitização e cessão de crédito aumenta significativamente o crédito ao setor privado.

Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1985.
MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH.
Bibliography: leaves 115-117.
by Sarah W. Wines.
M.C.P.

Les politiques de libéralisation financière, formulées dans le but de stimuler la croissance économique par le biais d’une progression de l’épargne privée, et d’une hausse de la productivité et du volume d’investissement, visent plus directement, dans une économie d’endettement, une augmentation de la mobilisation des dépôts par les intermédiaires financiers et une amélioration de l’efficience en matière d’allocation des crédits. L’objet de la thèse est dès lors d’analyser le comportement des banques en matière d’offre de crédit au secteur privé à la suite de la libéralisation financière, lequel présente en effet une importance cruciale pour le succès des réformes. Cette étude est appliquée aux cas du Ghana et de la Côte d’Ivoire, deux pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest qui ont engagé une profonde réforme de leurs systèmes financiers à la fin des années quatre-vingts. Nous montrons que la libéralisation contribue à l’amélioration de la qualité du portefeuille bancaire, mais ne conduit pas nécessairement, en raison d’asymétrie informationnelle et de risques élevés, à une efficience accrue en matière d’allocation des crédits
Financial liberalization is designed to enhance economic growth by stimulating private savings, increasing productivity and investment. In developing countries where banks are usually predominant in financial systems, one of the main purposes of financial reforms is to increase savings mobilization and improve efficiency in credit allocation. Bank behavior regarding credit supply to the private sector represents therefore a crucial issue. The purpose of the dissertation is thus to analyze bank behavior after financial liberalization. This work is applied to two West-African countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. We argue that financial liberalization may improve the soundness of bank portfolios, but may be not sufficient to improve savings mobilization and credit allocation

This study investigates the determinants of financial development and private sector credits for a panel of 85 developing and industrial countries using annual data from 1980 to 2006. The results from the panel cross-sectional fixed effects procedure suggest that an increase in the public sector credits and central government debt leads to a decrease in private sector credits in low income and lower middle income counties. For this group of countries, public sector credits, albeit leading to a financial crowding out, are found to be enhancing financial development. For the upper middle income and high income countries, private sector credits are found to increase with public sector credits and financial development and decrease with central government debt. Financial development is affected adversely from inflation and positively from real GDP and public sector credits in high income countries. In upper middle income countries both real GDP and credits to public sector affect financial development positively. In low income countries, on the other hand, public sector credits and inflation are correlated positively with financial development.

The subject of this thesis is to depict the financial provision of a public project during its implementation that includes the draft of its financial provision and the appraisal of the financial feasibility of the investment project. The theoretical part is focused on clarifying the basic concepts that explain the issues of public projects, the public sector and public procurement. The end of the theoretical part describes the various ways to finance public projects. The second part of the thesis is practical. In this part I focused on the creation of the ways to finance the project “Realization of energy savings” that are possible, including the reconstruction of the roof of the building of the Police of the Czech Republic in Brno, at street Cejl No. 474 and No. 159 and the proposal of the optimal financing options.

La présente thèse est composée d’un ensemble de travaux de recherche en économie appliquée qui s’inscrivent dans le champ contemporain de l’économie de l’assurance. La thèse s’interroge sur comment les pays en développement pourraient développer davantage le secteur d’assurance afin de bénéficier des effets sur l’économie domestique. La première partie de la thèse analyse les déterminants macroéconomiques du développement du secteur d’assurance. Premièrement, les résultats montrent que l'augmentation du revenu par habitant conduit à une augmentation des primes d'assurance-vie et l’assurance-vie est un bien de luxe en Afrique Subsaharienne (chapitre 2). On trouve également des preuves que l’impact marginal du revenu dépend de la qualité de l'environnement juridique et politique. Deuxièmement, l’analyse de l’effet des IDE montre que, ceux-ci constituent un facteur clé dans l'augmentation des primes d'assurance non-vie à la fois dans les pays d’Afrique Subsaharienne (ASS) et dans les autres pays en développement (chapitre 3). Troisièmement, les activités d’assurance-vie et bancaire sont substituables en ASS, cependant les résultats indiquent une causalité unidirectionnelle allant du crédit bancaire au secteur privé vers le développement des activités d’assurance-vie (chapitre 4). La deuxième partie de la thèse analyse l’impact du développement du secteur d’assurance sur l’économie des pays en développement. Premièrement, il apparaît que le développement de l'assurance-vie a un effet positif sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement d'une part et d'autre part, l’effet marginal de l’assurance-vie est influencé par les caractéristiques structurelles des pays (chapitre 5). Les primes d'assurance augmentent de façon significative la valeur des titres négociés sur le marché financier aussi bien avant et après la crise de 2007(chapitre 6). Troisièmement, la thèse a montré qu’il existe une relation à long terme entre le développement de l’assurance non-vie et l’ouverture commerciale et que les primes d'assurance non-vie améliorent l'ouverture au commerce international aussi bien dans les pays en développement que spécifiquement dans les pays à faible et moyen revenu (chapitre 7)
This thesis is composed of a set of research in applied economics that enroll in the contemporary field of economics of insurance. The thesis analyses how developing countries could develop more the insurance sector and benefit from these effects on local economy. The first part explored the determinants of insurance development from a macroeconomic perspective. First, the results show that increase of income per capita leads to an increase in life insurance premiums and that life insurance is a luxury commodity in Sub-Saharan Africa (chapter 2). We also find evidence that the marginal impact of income varies according to the quality of legal and political environment. Second, analysis of effect of the FDI inflows shows that these are a key factor in increase of non-life insurance premiums in countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and in other developing countries (chapter 3). In chapter 4, the results highlighted that the activities of life insurance and banking are substitutable in SSA and, however, there is presence of unidirectional causality running from real private credit density to life insurance and insurance density. The second part of the thesis has analysed effect of development of insurance sector on economy in developing countries. First, it appears that the development of life insurance has a positive effect on economic growth on the one hand and on the other hand marginal effect of life insurance is influenced by the structural characteristics of countries (chapter 5). In chapter 6, the results showed that the insurance premiums significantly increase stock market value traded, before as well and after the 2007's economic crisis. Finally, the thesis showed that there is a long term relationship between the development of non-life insurance and trade openness and that non-life insurance premiums improve openness to international trade as well in developing countries than specifically in low and middle income countries (chapter 7)

M.Comm. (Economics)
The recent global financial and economic crisis has brought about renewed interest in the nexus between credit markets and monetary policy. This research aims to contribute to the understanding of the factors that drive the demand for credit on an aggregate level, and the household and corporate sectors for the South African economy. The study assessed the equilibrium determinants of the aggregate and sectoral demand for credit in South Africa by making use of a cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) methodology. In addition, the periods of debt overhang and short-falls, at aggregate and sectoral levels in the credit market, are derived from these equilibrium levels. The estimated models indicate the existence of long-run relationships for the aggregate credit demand equation, a classic demand-type relationship linking aggregate credit with gross domestic product (GDP) and the lending rate is established. For credit extended to the corporate sector, the results indicate that in the long-run it is determined by investment expenditure, operating surpluses and the lending rate. Whereas for credit extension to the household sector, it was found that the lending rate, disposable income and household debt were its important long-run determinants. All the results of the estimated equations are in line with a demand-type relationship and the traditional hypothesis that credit is demanded to finance real economic transactions, namely for liquidity purposes and to finance working capital. The results of the short-term dynamics indicate that credit extension variables are the equilibrium variables, although the speed of adjustment parameter is found to be sluggish, which shows that the slow adjustment to equilibrium from shocks to the credit markets is attributable to the existence of stronger frictions and transaction costs in credit markets. These findings justify the persistent periods of credit overhang and short-falls in South Africa that this study derives from the equilibrium coefficient terms. The study shows that periods of credit overhang and short-falls are linked to the business cycle phases in South Africa.

Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais.
O presente estudo teve como objetivo principal identificar as determinantes do crédito bancário concedido ao setor privado, seguindo uma metodologia segmentada por tipo de crédito, à semelhança do modelo de Castro e Santos (2010). De forma a abranger o período conturbado pelo qual a economia portuguesa atravessa, foram introduzidas duas dummies artificiais, uma com o objetivo de captar a crise do subprime e outra a entrada da Troika. É, também, efetuada uma breve análise gráfica da evolução do crédito e suas determinantes em Portugal. Nas últimas duas décadas o crédito bancário em Portugal tem apresentado uma evolução ascendente, mas não de forma regular, condicionada por diversos fatores. Assistiu-se, nos últimos anos, a um abrandamento significativo desta fonte de financiamento, muito em prol da crise financeira sentida em Portugal. Foram estimadas três equações de forma individual, pelo método OLS e pelo SUR, para os três sectores privados: habitação, consumo e outros fins e sociedades não financeiras, com séries temporais trimestrais, enquadradas entre 1998 e 2012. Foi possível aferir que, no geral, o crédito é justificado pela despesa a que se destina, pelo custo do mesmo, pelo seu incumprimento e pela evolução da atividade económica. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que, em termos gerais, os financiamentos concedidos ao sector privado, no período em análise, encontram-se em consonância com a evolução dos seus determinantes. Contudo, o cenário de crise que Portugal tem assistido nos últimos anos, o rácio de incumprimento, e o elevado nível de dívida, conduz a uma maior sensibilidade do sector bancário a mudanças adversas.
ABSTRACT: The main objective of the current study is to identify the determinants of bank credit to the private sector, following a methodology divided by type of credit, like Castro and Santos (2010) model. To cover the troubled period for which the Portuguese economy through, were incorporated two artificial dummies, one with the goal of capturing the subprime crisis and other entry of Troika. It also made a brief graphical analysis of credit developments and their determinants in Portugal. In the last two decades the banking credit in Portugal has shown an upward trend, but not regularly, conditioned by several factors. In recent years it is noted, a significant slowdown of this source of funding, much in favor of the financial crisis felt in Portugal. Three equations were estimated individually by OLS and SUR for the three private sectors: housing, consumption and other purposes and non-financial corporations, with quarterly time series between 1998 and 2012 was possible to infer that, in general, credit is justified by the expense that is intended, by cost, by his default and the evolution of economic activity. The results suggest that, in general terms, the loans granted to the private sector, in the period under review are in line with the evolution of its determinants. However, the scenario of crisis that Portugal has witnessed in recent years, the ratio of noncompliance, and the high level of debt, leads to greater sensitivity of the banking sector to adverse changes.

This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.

This dissertation aims to study the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the credit risk of the accommodation services sector in Portugal using a structural model based on the one developed by Eisdorfer, Goyal, & Zhdanov (2019). Three major changes were implemented in the model: i) it was adapted to assess the impact of the pandemic crisis, ii) it was considered that firms have a cash account, and iii) a different decomposition of operating costs was made. Using the Central Balance Sheet - Harmonized Panel (CBHP) and the Fast and Exceptional Enterprise Survey (COVID-IREE) databases it was possible to implement the model to private Portuguese firms. The study is performed on four representative firms, that were constructed using a hybrid machine learning approach. The clustering variables - Adjusted Return on Assets, Fixed-Asset Turnover, Current Ratio and Long-Term Debt - were selected aiming to contemplate a different aspect regarding the firms’ pre-COVID-19 financial situation. While the results obtained indicate that all of the representative firms would see a decrease in their distance to default due to the pandemic shock, the dimension of the effect is heterogeneous on the four studied firms. The results also seem to confirm the intuition that firms with a better cash position before the shock suffer a less negative impact on their levels of credit risk. Additionally, less fixed obligations seem to influence firm’s chances of survival.
Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de estudar os impactos da crise de COVID-19 no risco de crédito no setor de alojamento em Portugal utilizando um modelo estrutural baseado naquele desenvolvido por Eisdorfer, Goyal, & Zhdanov (2019). Três alterações principais foram implementadas no modelo: i) ele foi adaptado para medir o impacto da crise da pandemia, ii) foi considerado que as empresas possuem uma conta de caixa, e iii) uma decomposição diferente para os custos operacionais foi feita. As bases de dados Central de Balanços (CBHP) e Inquérito Rápido e Excecional às Empresas (COVID-IREE) foram utilizadas para implementar o modelo para empresas privadas portuguesas. O estudo foi realizado em quatro empresas representativas, que foram contruídas utilizando um método híbrido de agrupamento com machine learning. As variáveis de agrupamento escolhidas – Retorno de Ativos Ajustado, Turnover de Ativos Fixos, Rácio de Liquidez, e Dívida de Longo Prazo – foram selecionadas com o objetivo de contemplar diferentes aspetos referentes à situação financeira das empresas pré-COVID-19. Apesar de todas as empresas representativas registarem uma redução na sua distância ao incumprimento em resultado do choque pandêmico, a dimensão do efeito é heterogêneo nas quatro empresas estudadas. Os resultados também parecem confirmar a intuição de que empresas com uma posição de caixa melhor antes do choque sofrem um impacto menos negativo nos seus níveis de risco de crédito. Além disso, ter obrigações fixas mais baixas parece influenciar as chances da empresa de sobrevivência.

This dissertation includes three chapters. Chapter 2 focuses on the threshold effect of credit on economic development of 17 developed countries throughout history from the late 1800s. Chapter 3 re-investigates the role of foreign aid in developing countries, emphasising the diminishing returns, and Chapter 4 offers evidence on the interest rate threshold effect on housing prices in 17 advanced economies from 1870 to 2013. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of bank credit on economic growth using the dynamic threshold panel model on 17 developed countries for the period from the late 1800s to the most recent period (2013). Recent papers suggest that credit ha a non-linear effects on economic growth in the long-run, where the turning points are identified around 80-100% of GDP. This study aims to capture the behaviour of the short-run impact of credit-to-GDP ratio on economic growth, particularly in advanced economies. The results show that there exists credit threshold effects, in which 135% of credit to GDP is the threshold level. An inverted U-shaped relationship between bank credit and economic growth appears to be statistically significant in the sample period after World War II. Chapter 3 re-examines the impact of foreign aid on economic development using a sample of 71 developing countries for the period from 1967 to 2010. It contributes to the existing literature of the diminishing returns of foreign aid, taking into account the presence of heterogeneity of country's growth process. First, when applying panel data estimation techniques, the results are in-line with previous findings presenting diminishing returns of foreign aid. This is consistent with the concept of absorptive capacity of recipient countries where aid is no longer effective when it reaches a certain threshold. Second, under the Finite Mixture Model in which heterogeneity of a country's growth process is taken into account based on the similarity of the conditional distributions of the growth rates, there exists evidence supporting the existence of two groups of countries, each with its own distinct growth regime. The diminishing returns of foreign aid belong to one group, consisting of 20 countries. There is no statistical evidence to support the diminishing returns for the other group of countries. This implies that the assessment on aid effectiveness should take heterogeneity assumption into account. Chapter 4 investigates the relationship between interest rates and house prices using data from 17 advanced economies for the period from the late 1800s to 2013, based on the recent argument that the linkage follows non-linear assumptions. This study aims to explore whether there exists an interest rate threshold when following a dynamic threshold panel model. The empirical analyses provide evidence that there exists an interest rate threshold, and these findings reveal that expansionary monetary policy below the threshold level is associated with housing price bubbles; beyond the threshold level, further contractionary monetary policy tends to slow down the housing price bubbles, where the effects have become stronger and statistically significant after World War II.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics , 2018

The thesis examined the comprehensive causal relationship between the banking sector, stock market development and economic growth in a multi-variate framework using Zimbabwean time series data from 1988 to 2015. Three banking sector development proxies (total financial sector credit, banking credit to private sector and broad money M3) and three stock market development proxies (stock market capitalization, value traded and turnover ratio) were employed to estimate both long and short run relationships between banking sector, stock market and economic growth in Zimbabwe. The study employs the vector error correction model (VECM) as the main estimation technique and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach as a robustness testing technique. Results showed that in Zimbabwe a significant causal relationship from banking sector and stock market development to economic growth exists in the long run without any feedback effects. In the short run, however, a negative yet statistically significant causal relationship runs from economic growth to banking sector and stock market development in Zimbabwe. The study further concludes that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from stock market development to banking sector development in Zimbabwe in both short and long run periods. Nonetheless this relationship between banking sector and stock markets has been found to be more significant in the short run than in the long run. The thesis adopts the complementary view and recommends for the spontaneity implementation of monetary policies as the economy grows. Monetary authorities should thus formulate policies to promote both banks and stock markets with corresponding growth in Zimbabwe’s economy.
Business Management
M. Com. (Business Management)

This dissertation thesis consists of three essays on macroeconomics and finance. In these essays, I focus on events which adversely affect emerging markets and present challenges to economic policy and central bank thinking. My aim is to contribute to the existing empirical literature by providing new evidence on the role of private credit, effects of macroprudential policies and understanding of the exchange-rate pass-through. The first essay evaluates policy measures taken to curb bank credit growth in the private sector in the pre-crisis period 2003-2007. The analysis is based on an original survey conducted on central banks in Central and Eastern Europe. The findings reveal substantial policy intervention and indicate that certain measures - particularly asset classification and provisioning rules; and loan eligibility criteria - might have been effective in taming bank credit growth. The second essay contributes to the existing literature on early warning indicators as well as to the discussion on the appropriateness of credit-to-GDP gap as a leading variable for any country for activation of the countercyclical capital buffer instrument in Basel III. We exploit long-run credit series for 36 emerging markets and evaluate their quality to signal a crisis by using receiver operating characteristics...

This thesis focuses on the development of credit to the private sector in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Although the speed of credit growth in these countries has recently slowed down as the consequence of the global financial crisis, the overall increase in credit to the private sector over the past decades has been immense. As a result, the thesis examines whether this substantial increase in credit is linked to the convergence of the CEE countries towards the equilibrium or whether it represents an excessive credit growth that could threaten the macroeconomic and financial stability in these countries. We estimate the equilibrium credit levels for 11 transition countries by applying a dynamic panel data model. Since in-sample approach may bias the estimation results we perform the estimates out-of-sample using a panel of selected developed EU countries as a benchmark. The difference between the actual and estimated credit-to-GDP ratios serves as a measure of private credit excessiveness. The results indicate a slightly excessive or close to the equilibrium credit-to-GDP ratios in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia prior to the financial crisis. With regard to the significant decline in GDP during the crisis this measure of credit excessiveness in these countries have further increased.

This dissertation is a collection of three essays dealing with selected problems of the Euro Area during its most recent crisis. It applies empirical, theoretical, and institutional analyses to gain new insights into many of its financial aspects. The first essay offers an alternative explanation for the surge in government bond spreads. Many researchers attribute this phenomenon to market sentiment and multiple equilibria alone. We show that an often neglected fundamental variable may drive spreads: a decrease in the expected recovery value of private market participants. With an ever-increasing share of crisis countries’ debt held by official creditors, private investors may feel pushed into the position of subordinated creditors. The other two essays both explain the sharp increase in central bank credit from different perspectives. First, from the national perspective, central banks may be confronted with a classical tragedy-of-the-commons problem, which gives rise to an expansionary bias. Second, from the perspective of the ECB, we argue that the empirical patterns surrounding the liquidity provision in December 2011 are reminiscent of a speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate system.

O presente projeto de dissertação tem como principal objetivo perceber o impacto do crédito sobre o crescimento económico. Também propôs perceber qual o impacto que o crédito tem sobre as despesas do PIB, nomeadamente, o investimento, o consumo e as exportações, de forma separada. Para o alcance destes objetivos, primeiramente foi feita uma revisão teórica de estudos já realizados sobre o sistema financeiro e o crescimento económico. Depois, foi feita uma caraterização do sistema financeiro cabo-verdiano e descrição da evolução dos principais indicadores do sistema. Na análise empírica foi utilizada o modelo VAR (Vetor Autoregressivo), com a aplicação de quatro modelos de forma separada, relacionando a variável do crédito com cada uma das variáveis do crescimento utilizadas. Os dados utilizados foram recolhidos da base de dados do Banco de Cabo Verde. Com base na análise feita, concluímos que o crédito e o produto interno bruto apresentam relação de longo prazo. Entretanto, no curto prazo verificamos que o produto interno bruto influencia o crédito, mas o inverso não acontece. Dos restantes modelos, as variáveis do investimento e do consumo apresentaram relação positiva de longo prazo com o crédito, sendo a variável consumo, a que apresenta maior impacto do crédito sobre a mesma. A variável exportações recebe influência do crédito, no curto prazo, mas não apresentam relações de longo prazo.
The main objetive of this dissertation project was to understand the impact of credit on economic growth. It also proposed to understand the impact that credit has on GDP expenditure, namely, investment, consumption and exports, separately. To achieve this goals, a theoretical review of studies already carried out on financial system and economic growth was carried out. Afterwards, a characterization of the Capeverdean financial system was carried out and a description of the evolution of the main indicators of the system was carried out. In the empirical analysis, the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model was used, with the applications of four models separately, relating the credit variable to each of the growth variables used. The data used were collected from the Bank of Cape Verde database. Based on our analysis, we conclude that credit and gross domestic product have a long-term relationship. However, in the short term, we see that gross domestic product influences credit, but the opposite does not happen. Of the other models, the investment and consumption variables, had a positive long-term relationship with credit, with the consumption variable being the one with the greatest impact of credit on it. The export variable is influenced by credit, in the sort term, but does not presente long-term relationships.