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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Probability weighting'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 30 January 2023

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1

Ungemach, Christoph. "The weight of experience : an investigation of probability weighting under decisions from experience." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2008. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/2382/.

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In decisions from experience tasks objective information regarding payoffs and probabilities must be inferred from samples of possible outcomes. A series of recent experiments has revealed that people show deviating choice behaviour in such tasks, indicating underweighting of small probabilities instead of overweighting of small probabilities as in decisions from description. In a range of experiments, the research presented in this thesis provides a new direction by showing that such reversals from overweighting to underweighting in decisions from experience are very robust and can be replica

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Johnson, Gregory K. "The Optimal Weighting of Pre-Election Polling Data." Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2008. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd2378.pdf.

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3

Liu, Yang. "Analysis of Dependently Truncated Sample Using Inverse Probability Weighted Estimator." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2011. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/math_theses/110.

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Many statistical methods for truncated data rely on the assumption that the failure and truncation time are independent, which can be unrealistic in applications. The study cohorts obtained from bone marrow transplant (BMT) registry data are commonly recognized as truncated samples, the time-to-failure is truncated by the transplant time. There are clinical evidences that a longer transplant waiting time is a worse prognosis of survivorship. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume the dependence between transplant and failure time. To better analyze BMT registry data, we utilize a Cox analysis i

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4

Wickham, Philip Arthur. "An empirical evaluation of Prelec's compound invariant functions as models of probability weighting in prospect theory." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.486090.

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Prospect theory, which proposes both reference-dependent utilityand probability weighting, has proved to be the most successful ofseveral approaches to generalising nonnative expected utility theory. It has been widely adopted in the social sciences to explain risk behaviour, with applications ranging from infrahuman, pre-industrial, financial, corporate and political decision-making. This wide, and growing, range of applications demands effective econometric analysis ofthe prospect theoretical framework. A major advance has been Prelec's approach using a weak consistency condition known as co

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5

Afonso, Lutcy Menezes. "Correcting for attrition in panel data using inverse probability weighting : an application to the european bank system." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/8155.

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Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão<br>Esta dissertação analiza técnicas de correção do efeito do enviesamento que pode ocorrer no caso dos dados utilizados apresentarem valores em falta. Tais técnicas serão aplicadas a um modelo económico para caracterização da margem líquida de juros (MLJ) bancária, utilizando dados provinientes 15 países que pertencem ao sistema bancário da União Europeia (UE15). As variáveis que caracterizam os bancos são observados entre de 2004 e 2010. E são escolhidas seguindo Valverde et al. (2007). Adicionalmente aos regressores são acrescentadas algumas vari

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6

Nåtman, Jonatan. "The performance of inverse probability of treatment weighting and propensity score matching for estimating marginal hazard ratios." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-385502.

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Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to reduce the effect of measured confounders in observational research. In medicine, censored time-to-event data is common. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this thesis evaluates the performance of nearest neighbour matching (NNM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) in combination with Cox proportional hazards models for estimating marginal hazard ratios. Focus is on the performance for different sample sizes and censoring rates, aspects which have not been fully investigated in this context before. The results show that, in

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7

Newell, Anthony. "A behavioural and biological study of risk and ambiguity." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2020. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/205647/1/Anthony_Newell_Thesis.pdf.

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This thesis focuses on how individuals and groups perceive and behave in the face of risky and ambiguous outcomes. There has been much research on how individuals behave in these situations, but much less investigation into when and why they behave in this way. These questions are addressed from a behavioural, neuro-biological and environmental perspective and answered using individual and group lab-based experiments. The results of these experiments indicate that the amount of information presented, prevailing sentiment and biological factors all influence how we make decisions and the extent

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8

Charles-Cadogan, Godfrey. "Essays on statistical economics with applications to financial market instability, limit distribution of loss aversion, and harmonic probability weighting functions." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20949.

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This dissertation is comprised of four essays. It develops statistical models of decision making in the presence of risk with applications to economics and finance. The methodology draws upon economics, finance, psychology, mathematics and statistics. Each essay contributes to the literature by either introducing new theories and empirical predictions or extending old ones with novel approaches .The first essay (Chapter II) includes, to the best of our knowledge, the first known limit distribution of the myopic loss aversion (MLA) index derived from micro-foundations of behavioural economics.

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9

Diop, Serigne Arona, and Serigne Arona Diop. "Comparing inverse probability of treatment weighting methods and optimal nonbipartite matching for estimating the causal effect of a multicategorical treatment." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/34507.

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Des débalancements des covariables entre les groupes de traitement sont souvent présents dans les études observationnelles et peuvent biaiser les comparaisons entre les traitements. Ce biais peut notamment être corrigé grâce à des méthodes de pondération ou d’appariement. Ces méthodes de correction ont rarement été comparées dans un contexte de traitement à plusieurs catégories (>2). Nous avons mené une étude de simulation pour comparer une méthode d’appariement optimal non-biparti, la pondération par probabilité inverse de traitement ainsi qu’une pondération modifiée analogue à l’appariement

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10

KATO, Ryo, and Dan HU. "Auditor Size as a Measure for Audit Quality : A Japanese Study." 名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科附属国際経済政策研究センター, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/20455.

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11

Cunha, Ana Torre do Valle de Arriaga e. "Cumulative prospect theory : a parametric analysis of the functional forms and applications." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10990.

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Mestrado em Finanças<br>Este trabalho apresenta um estudo empírico sobre cumulative prospect theory através do estudo da função de utilidade e a função de probabilidade distorcida. Os resultados obtidos estão de acordo com a literatura, que mostra que a função da utilidade é côncava no domínio dos ganhos, e quase linear no domínio das perdas. Não só mostra que a função da probabilidade distorcida tem a forma de um "S" inverso tanto no domínio dos ganhos como no domínio das perdas. Também aborda o estudo de variáveis demográficas relacionando-as com os coeficientes das funções mencionadas ant

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12

Schmidl, Ricarda. "Empirical essays on job search behavior, active labor market policies, and propensity score balancing methods." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2014. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2014/7114/.

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In Chapter 1 of the dissertation, the role of social networks is analyzed as an important determinant in the search behavior of the unemployed. Based on the hypothesis that the unemployed generate information on vacancies through their social network, search theory predicts that individuals with large social networks should experience an increased productivity of informal search, and reduce their search in formal channels. Due to the higher productivity of search, unemployed with a larger network are also expected to have a higher reservation wage than unemployed with a small network. The mode

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13

Pingel, Ronnie. "Some Aspects of Propensity Score-based Estimators for Causal Inference." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-229341.

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This thesis consists of four papers that are related to commonly used propensity score-based estimators for average causal effects. The first paper starts with the observation that researchers often have access to data containing lots of covariates that are correlated. We therefore study the effect of correlation on the asymptotic variance of an inverse probability weighting and a matching estimator. Under the assumptions of normally distributed covariates, constant causal effect, and potential outcomes and a logit that are linear in the parameters we show that the correlation influences the a

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14

Duan, Ran. "EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF ANTIDEPRESSANT USE ON THE RISK OF DEMENTIA." UKnowledge, 2019. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/epb_etds/23.

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Dementia is a clinical syndrome caused by neurodegeneration or cerebrovascular injury. Patients with dementia suffer from deterioration in memory, thinking, behavior and the ability to perform everyday activities. Since there are no cures or disease-modifying therapies for dementia, there is much interest in identifying modifiable risk factors that may help prevent or slow the progression of cognitive decline. Medications are a common focus of this type of research. Importantly, according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 19.1% of the population aged 60 and

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15

Kauffman, Sandra S. "Comparing Two Perspectives for Understanding Decisions from Description and Experience." Scholar Commons, 2014. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/7687.

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When trying to make sense of uncertain situations, we might rely on summary information from a description, or information gathered from our personal experience. There are two approaches that both attempt to explain how we make risky decisions using descriptive or experiential information—the cognitive-based explanation from the description-experience gap, and the emotion-based explanation from the somatic marker hypothesis (SMH). This dissertation brings together these two approaches to better understand how we make risky decisions. Four options were presented, with options differing in terms

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16

Farmer, R. E. "Application of marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment weighting in electronic health records to investigate the benefits and risks of first line type II diabetes treatments." Thesis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (University of London), 2017. http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/4646129/.

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Background: Electronic healthcare records (EHRs) provide opportunities to estimate the effects of type two diabetes (T2DM) treatments on outcomes such as cancer and cardiovascular disease. Marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) can correctly estimate the causal effect of time-varying treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounders such as HbA1c. Dynamic MSMs can be used to compare dynamic treatment strategies. This thesis applies weighted MSMs and dynamic MSMs to explore risks and benefits of early-stage T2DM treatments, and considers the

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17

Winter, Audrey. "Modèles d'appariement du greffon à son hôte, gestion de file d'attente et évaluation du bénéfice de survie en transplantation hépatique à partir de la base nationale de l'Agence de la Biomédecine." Thesis, Montpellier, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017MONTS024/document.

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La transplantation hépatique (TH) est la seule intervention possible en cas de défaillance hépatique terminale. Une des limitations majeures à la TH est la pénurie d'organes. Pour pallier ce problème, les critères de sélection des donneurs ont été élargis avec l'utilisation de foie de donneurs dits à "critères étendus" (extended criteria donor (ECD)). Cependant, il n'existe pas de définition univoque de ces foies ECD. Un score donneur américain a donc été mis en place : le Donor Risk Index (DRI), pour qualifier ces greffons. Mais à qui doit-on donner ces greffons "limites"? En effet, une utili

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18

Werner, Katarzyna Maria. "Essays on non-expected utility theory and individual decision making under risk." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2015. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/essays-on-nonexpected-utility-theory-and-individual-decision-making-under-risk(e73bd3eb-8031-45f9-b34d-e5e9edb78e03).html.

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This thesis investigates the choices under risk in the framework of non-expected utility theories. One of the key contributions of this thesis is providing an approach that allows for a complete characterisation of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences without prior knowledge of the reference point. The location of the reference point that separates gains from losses is derived endogenously, thus, without any additional assumptions on the decision makers risk behaviour. This is different to the convention used in the literature, according to which, the reference point is preselected. T

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19

Rota, Bernardo João. "Calibration Adjustment for Nonresponse in Sample Surveys." Doctoral thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-51966.

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In this thesis, we discuss calibration estimation in the presence of nonresponse with a focus on the linear calibration estimator and the propensity calibration estimator, along with the use of different levels of auxiliary information, that is, sample and population levels. This is a fourpapers- based thesis, two of which discuss estimation in two steps. The two-step-type estimator here suggested is an improved compromise of both the linear calibration and the propensity calibration estimators mentioned above. Assuming that the functional form of the response model is known, it is estimated i

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20

Albqmi, Aisha Rashed M. "Integrating three-way decisions framework with multiple support vector machines for text classification." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2022. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/235898/7/Aisha_Rashed_Albqmi_Thesis_.pdf.

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Identifying the boundary between relevant and irrelevant objects in text classification is a significant challenge due to the numerous uncertainties in text documents. Most existing binary text classifiers cannot deal effectively with this problem due to the issue of over-fitting. This thesis proposes a three-way decision model for dealing with the uncertain boundary to improve the binary text classification performance by integrating the distinct aspects of three-way decisions theory and the capacities of the Support Vector Machine. The experimental results show that the proposed models outpe

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21

Sientchkovski, Paula Marques. "Construção de ferramenta computacional para estimação de custos na presença de censura utilizando o método da Ponderação pela Probabilidade Inversa." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/148105.

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Introdução: Dados de custo necessários na Análise de Custo-Efetividade (CEA) são, muitas vezes, obtidos de estudos longitudinais primários. Neste contexto, é comum a presença de censura caracterizada por não se ter os dados de custo a partir de certo momento, devido ao fato de que indivíduos saem do estudo sem esse estar finalizado. A ideia da Ponderação pela Probabilidade Inversa (IPW – do inglês, Inverse Probability Weighting) vem sendo bastante estudada na literatura relacionada a esse problema, mas é desconhecida a disponibilidade de ferramentas computacionais para esse contexto. Objetivo:

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22

Iglesias, Martin Casals. "O comportamento do investidor brasileiro na alocação de ativos." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2080.

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Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 martincasalsturma2003.pdf.jpg: 11517 bytes, checksum: 930c75c74ff8269d877983110854646d (MD5) martincasalsturma2003.pdf: 975293 bytes, checksum: f41cfd3a5f3e659d07e2861acf4e23d4 (MD5) martincasalsturma2003.pdf.txt: 107784 bytes, checksum: e96ad0fb809a12f13ba7d3f08e24c1ee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-02-15T00:00:00Z<br>O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a alocação de investimentos no mercado acionário brasileiro, utilizando a teoria do prospecto de Tversky e Kahneman (1979) e o conceito de Aversão a Perdas Mí

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23

Stevenson, Clint W. "A Logistic Regression Analysis of Utah Colleges Exit Poll Response Rates Using SAS Software." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2006. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/1116.

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In this study I examine voter response at an interview level using a dataset of 7562 voter contacts (including responses and nonresponses) in the 2004 Utah Colleges Exit Poll. In 2004, 4908 of the 7562 voters approached responded to the exit poll for an overall response rate of 65 percent. Logistic regression is used to estimate factors that contribute to a success or failure of each interview attempt. This logistic regression model uses interviewer characteristics, voter characteristics (both respondents and nonrespondents), and exogenous factors as independent variables. Voter characteristic

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Moreno, Betancur Margarita. "Regression modeling with missing outcomes : competing risks and longitudinal data." Thesis, Paris 11, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA11T076/document.

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Les données manquantes sont fréquentes dans les études médicales. Dans les modèles de régression, les réponses manquantes limitent notre capacité à faire des inférences sur les effets des covariables décrivant la distribution de la totalité des réponses prévues sur laquelle porte l'intérêt médical. Outre la perte de précision, toute inférence statistique requière qu'une hypothèse sur le mécanisme de manquement soit vérifiée. Rubin (1976, Biometrika, 63:581-592) a appelé le mécanisme de manquement MAR (pour les sigles en anglais de « manquant au hasard ») si la probabilité qu'une réponse soit m

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25

Boutoux, Guillaume. "Sections efficaces neutroniques via la méthode de substitution." Phd thesis, Bordeaux 1, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00654677.

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Les sections efficaces neutroniques des noyaux de courte durée de vie sont des données cruciales pour la physique fondamentale et appliquée dans des domaines tels que la physique des réacteurs ou l'astrophysique nucléaire. En général, l'extrême radioactivité de ces noyaux ne nous permet pas de procéder à des mesures induites par neutrons. Cependant, il existe une méthode de substitution (" surrogate " dans la littérature) qui permet de déterminer ces sections efficaces neutroniques par l'intermédiaire de réactions de transfert ou de réactions de diffusion inélastique. Son intérêt principal est

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26

Wang, Tze-Yun, and 王姿勻. "The shape of the probability weighting function in decision from experience." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/39488265552725594947.

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碩士<br>國立陽明大學<br>神經科學研究所<br>101<br>In many situations, we often rely on our past experience to help us make decisions. Decision from experience refers to situations in which people choose between uncertain prospects where knowledge about probabilities associated with potential outcomes is gained through sampling experience. In contrast, decision from description is a class of decision-making in which information about prospects is completely revealed to the chooser. There is accumulating evidence suggesting that people distort information about probability in both classes of decision and that t

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27

Yang, Chang-Ming, and 楊長鳴. "Sampling, Weighting and Probability Correction for Classifying Imbalanced Data Using Decision Trees." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/yngsnt.

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碩士<br>國立清華大學<br>服務科學研究所<br>105<br>In this dissertation, we study three analytical goals related to imbalanced data: (1) determining the population class distribution when it is difficult to obtain sufficient observations on one of the classes; (2) comparing explanatory and predictive modeling of imbalanced data using logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and decision trees; and (3) considering suitable performance evaluation metrics for different purposes. Our research question is focused on comparing weighting and intercept correction for undersampled data using logistic regression, di

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28

Lee, Shu-Ching, and 李淑卿. "Probability weighting in experience-based decision making under risk: Understanding how sample size and temporal context of experience shape probability distortion." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/p84uw4.

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博士<br>國立陽明大學<br>跨領域神經科學博士學位學程<br>106<br>Experience plays a big part in how we act, interact, and decide. However, direct experience is not the only way we acquire knowledge about the world. In many situations, information is directly communicated through description. Can the way information is acquired change how we use it? In decision making, considerable evidence suggests that this is indeed the case – people tend to overweight/underweight rare events depending on whether information about event probability is described/experienced. In this study, we focused on two novel issues, namely, how

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29

(11038146), Daniel John Woods. "Essays on Experimental Economics." Thesis, 2021.

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This thesis contains three chapters, each of which covers a different topic in experimental economics.<br><br>The first chapter investigates power and power analysis in economics experiments. Power is the probability of detecting an effect when a true effect exists, which is an important but under-considered concept in empirical research. Power analysis is the process of selecting the number of observations in order to avoid issues with low power. However, it is often not clear ex-ante what the required parameters for a power analysis, like the effect size and standard deviation, should be.

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Ferreira, Luís António Garcez Duarte da Costa. "Propensity scores: an application in interventional cardiology." Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10451/25649.

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Trabalho de projecto de mestrado, Bioestatística, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016<br>Invasive techniques are essential in investigation and management of cardiac and vascular diseases, particularly obstructive coronary artery disease. These invasive techniques can be performed for diagnostic or interventional purposes, and the access to the target arteries can be done through the femoral or the radial artery. The transradial approach may be clinically preferable, namely because its use has been associated with fewer peri-procedural complications, like bleeding. Despite the

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