Academic literature on the topic 'Probit/logit model'

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>O presente trabalho estuda as causas das crises bancárias, com base na análise dos rácios financeiros do balanço dos bancos. Nesse sentido, recorremos a uma metodologia que consiste em estimar três regressões diferentes para a probabilidade de falência dos bancos, através dos modelos Logit e Probit, para uma amostra de 99 bancos Argentinos. O objetivo foi saber se as falências bancárias ocorridas durante a crise Argentina de 2001 se explicam por factores monetários ou factores reais, uma vez que o debate teórico se situa nesta dicotomia. Os resultados encontrados são semelhantes para a estimação Logit e Probit e sugerem que apenas os factores monetários explicam a probabilidade de ocorrência das falências.<br>This paper studies the causes of banking crisis, based on the analysis of financial ratios of the banks' balance sheets. In this sense, we used a methodology that consists in estimating three different regressions for the probability of bank failure, through Logit and Probit models for a sample of 99 Argentine banks. The objective was to determine whether the bank failures that have occurred during the Argentina´s 2001 economic crisis are explained by monetary or real factors, since the theoretical debate lies in this dichotomy. The results are similar for Logit and Probit estimation and suggest that only the monetary factors explain the likelihood of bankruptcy.

Mestrado em Matemática Financeira<br>No contexto de paz e estabilidade política que Angola vive, o desenvolvimento social “erradicação da pobreza” tornou-se numa meta a alcançar para manter esta mesma estabilidade; neste sentido, os programas de microcrédito têm um papel importante a desempenhar. O presente trabalho tem como objectivo responder às seguintes questões: Será que os programas de micro crédito têm tido um efeito positivo no bem-estar dos seus beneficiários e familiares? Quais os factores que contribuem para a satisfação “sucesso” do negócio, nas províncias de Benguela e Huambo? As conclusões obtidas evidenciam que, de facto, houve melhorias nas condições de vida dos beneficiários, tanto a nível da habitação, saúde, alimentação como da educação dos filhos.<br>In the context of peace and political stability that Angola lives, social development, “eradication of poverty” have become a goal to achieve in order to maintain the same stability; in this sense, microcredit programs have an important role to play. The present thesis has as main objective to answer the following questions: Do micro-credit programs have a positive effect on recipients and families? What are the factors that contribute to satisfaction "success" of the business? Conclusion shows that there was some improvement in the living conditions of benefi-ciaries, both in housing, health, nutrition and education of children.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.<br>Esogbue, Augustine, Committee Chair ; Griffin, Paul, Committee Member ; Lu, Jye-Chyi (JC), Committee Member ; Li, MinQiang, Committee Member ; McCarthy, Patrick, Committee Member.

The overall goal of this study was to analyse the welfare effect of improved wastewater treatment with the view of making policy recommendations for sustainable urban and peri-urban irrigation agriculture in Kenya. This goal was achieved by investigating three specific objectives. The first objective was to assess the farmers’ awareness of health risks in urban and peri-urban wastewater irrigation. Second objective was to analyse the factors that affect the choice of low-risk adaptations in reuse of untreated wastewater for irrigation. The third objective was to estimate the value that urban and peri-urban farmers who practice wastewater irrigation impute to improvements in specific characteristics of the wastewater input in agriculture. In order to achieve the first objective, an ordered probit model was used to identify the factors that influence farmers’ awareness of health risks in untreated wastewater irrigation. The model was fitted to data collected from a cross-sectional survey of 317 urban farm households in the Kibera informal settlement of Kenya. Results of this study show that gender of household head, household size, education level of household head, farm size, ownership of the farm, membership to farmers’ group, and market access for the fresh produce significantly affect awareness of farmers about health risks in wastewater irrigation. Therefore, there is need for awareness programs to promote public education through regular training and local workshops on wastewater reuse in order to improve the human capital of the urban and peri-urban farmers. To achieve the second objective, the study used a multinomial logit model to analyse the farmers’ choice of low-risk adaptations in untreated wastewater irrigation. A survey of 317 urban and peri-urban farmers was conducted and measures for risk-reduction in wastewater reuse were analysed. The urban and peri-urban farmers were found to have adopted low-risk wastewater irrigation techniques such as cessation of irrigation before harvesting, crop restriction and safer application methods. Results of the study show that adoption of risk-reduction measures is significantly influenced by the following factors: household size, age of the household head, education of household head, access to extension, access to media, access to credit, farmers’ group membership, and risk awareness. Also, marginal analysis of the coefficients confirmed the socio-economic characteristics are key determinants in adoption of low-risk measures in wastewater reuse. The study recommends that policies in support of low-risk urban and peri-urban irrigation agriculture should disaggregate farmers according to their socio-economic and institutional characteristics in order to achieve their intended objectives. To achieve the third objective, the study employed the discrete choice experiment approach to estimate the benefits farmers impute to improvements in attributes of the wastewater irrigation input, whose aim is to reduce the health risks associated with untreated wastewater irrigation. Urban and peri-urban farmers who practice wastewater irrigation drawn from Motoine-Ngong River in Nairobi were randomly selected for the study. A total of 241 farmers completed the presented choice cards for the choice model estimation. A random parameter logit model was used to estimate the individual level willingness to pay for wastewater treatment. The results show that urban and peri-urban farmers are willing to pay significant monthly municipality taxes for treatment of wastewater. Conclusion of this study was that, quality of treated wastewater, quantity of treated wastewater and the riverine ecosystem restoration are significant factors of preference over policy alternative designs in wastewater treatment and reuse.<br>Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013.<br>gm2014<br>Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development<br>unrestricted

The purpose of this bachelor thesis was to compare three different methods for regression with binary outcomes. The three methods used for comparison are: Linear Probability Model, Logit and Probit. To compare the methods, data gathered from the World Value Survey when it last was done in Sweden in 2011 was used. The outcome variable in the creation of the models was whether the respondent preferred protecting the environment or economic growth. A Monte Carlo-simulation was also performed to strengthen the arguments in the comparison.  The results from the different models created was very small, but there are still differences. Two examples of the differences are the simplicity of interpretation between the models and errors that argues for not using Linear Probability Model under certain circumstances.

L'objet de cette thèse est d'étudier les liens qui existent entre les déséquilibres macroéconomiques et les crises, et de voir dans quelles mesures leur prise en compte peut aider une meilleure gestion des crises dans les pays de la zone euro. Les différents chapitres de cette thèse tentent d'apporter des réponses à trois questions importantes : Quels sont les indicateurs macro-financiers qui pourraient aider à mieux anticiper les épisodes de stress budgétaire dans les pays de la zone euro ? Quelles seraient les conséquences de la mise en place d'un système de garantie des dépôts bancaires sur les variables macroéconomiques et sur le comportement des investisseurs, investisseurs qui tiendraient compte du risque de défaut souverain ? Dans quelle mesure une meilleure qualité des institutions, de la gouvernance pourrait-elle aider à améliorer la croissance de long terme d'une économie contrainte sur le marché international des capitaux ? En retenant une approche de court terme, les deux premiers chapitres montrent l'importance de la confiance des marchés dans l'analyse du lien entre déséquilibres macroéconomiques et crises. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous adoptons une perspective de plus long terme pour analyser les effets de cette confiance des marchés sur la dynamique de la croissance. Notre approche est à la fois théorique et empirique. L'approche théorique se base sur les modèles DSGE (modèles d'équilibre général stochastiques dynamiques et la modélisation d'une crise dans une petite économie ouverte. L'approche empirique se focalise sur les modèles Probit/Logit sur données de panel et sur un modèle d'alerte fondé sur des signaux avancés (early warning indicators)<br>This dissertation consists of three essays on how macro-financial imbalances precede crises and to what extent their consideration can help better management of crises in the Eurozone countries. The different chapters of this thesis, try to answer three important questions : What are the macro-financial imbalances that exposed the Euro area countries to fiscal stress before the outbreak of the debt crises in Europe? What are the impacts of sovereign default and deposit guarantee on macroeconomic variables and on the behavior of investors ? To what extent could better institutions/governance help to improve the long-term growth in a constrained economy on the international capital market ? Using a short-term approach, the first two chapters show the importance of market confidence in analysis of the link between macroeconomic imbalances and crises. In the third chapter, we adopt a long-term perspective to analyze the effects of this market confidence on the dynamics of growth. Our approach is both theoretical and empirical. The theoretical approach is based on the DSGE models (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models) and the modeling of a crisis in a small open economy (SOE). The empirical approach focuses on Probit/Logit models for panel data and on Signal model based on early warning indicators

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2049.pdf: 560086 bytes, checksum: 32b955d6a93e81457f49b0418b1e9514 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-06<br>Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos<br>A summary of the state of the art relative to regression models for binary response variable and panel data is presented in this work. Those models may include efects from several sources: specific variables of interest, heterogeneity between individuals and lagged values of the response variable. The original contributions of the author are simulation studies to compare two diferent approaches to maximum likelihood estimation of parameters of dynamic models with all three kinds of efects, and also a study of properties of such estimators in group sequential analysis, using the bootstrap methodology. Original codes were developed in R for implementation of simulation studies. The relevance of the subject and the non availability of appropriate codes in commercial software for fitting dynamic models for binary response justify the choice of the theme.<br>Neste trabalho é apresentado inicialmente um levantamento da literatura referente a modelos de regressão não lineares quando a variável resposta é binária e as observações são um painel de dados. Tais modelos podem incluir efeitos de várias fontes: variáveis específicas de interesse, heterogeneidade não observável dos indivíduos e valores defasados da variável resposta. A parte original do trabalho consiste nos estudos por simulação usando programação criada para esse fim no software R, visando comparar duas propostas recentes da literatura para ajustar, por máxima verossimilhança condicional, modelos dinâmicos que incluem os três tipos de efeitos mencionados. Também é original o estudo empírico, usando a metodologia de reamostragem \bootstrap", de características da distribuição conjunta dos estimadores dos parâmetros em análises intermediárias dos dados. A justificativa do trabalho é a atualidade do tema e a inexistência de programas de ajuste de modelos dinâmicos de resposta binária na maioria dos softwares comerciais.

Ve své diplomové práci se zabývám modely diskrétní binární volby. Zkoumám je nejprve z teoretického hlediska, jaká je jejich podstata, jaká jsou jejich specifika a problémy. Postupně rozebírám jednotlivé modely diskrétní binární volby a to lineární pravděpodobnostní model, logitový model a probitový model. Zabývám se jejich odhadem, testováním významnosti jednotlivých koeficientů a shodou modelů s daty. V praktické části se zaměřuji na problematiku životního prostředí a třídění odpadu. Aplikuji jednotlivé modely na získaná data a snažím se vysvětlit, na čem závisí volba jedince mezi ?třídím odpad? a nebo ?netřídím odpad?. Na základě analýzy poté doporučuji, na koho a jakým způsobem zacílit osvětu.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2008.<br>Title from electronic title page (viewed Sep. 16, 2008). "... in partial full̄lment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Political Science." Discipline: Political Science; Department/School: Political Science.