Academic literature on the topic 'Production Cost Theory'

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Journal articles on the topic "Production Cost Theory"

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Dierkes, Stefan, and David Siepelmeyer. "Production and cost theory-based material flow cost accounting." Journal of Cleaner Production 235 (October 2019): 483–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.212.

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Carrington, Samantha. "An Integration of Learning, Production and Cost Theory." Engineering Economist 34, no. 3 (1989): 195–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00137918908902988.

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Lestari, Dini Maulana. "Immaterial Cost and Production: Maximum Production Cost Level Through Marginal Approach." El-Jizya : Jurnal Ekonomi Islam 8, no. 2 (2020): 128–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.24090/ej.v8i2.4241.

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This paper will discuss about the immaterial costs and production yields at one of the refined sugar factory companies in Makassar, South Sulawesi. The theory is based on the fact that Immaterial is a cost that is almsgiving, meaning costs that are outside of the basic costs of the company in producing production, so this research aims to find out: (1) what is the production cost needed to produce this production, (2) the maximum level of production at company from 2013 to 2017.
 This type of research is a quantitative study because it uses a questionnaire in the form of values ​​that are processed using the marginal cost approach formula. The results of the analysis show that (1) the maximum level of production costs occurred in 2016 amounting to 6,912 with an Immaterial cost of Rp. 2,481,796,800 and the total production produced is 359,077.3 tons (2) The required workforce with the total production produced is 359,077.3 tones of 180 people including the maximum production point which means that the lowest value is achieved (optimal).
 
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Baye, Michael R., Mary E. Deily, and Dennis W. Jansen. "Marginal and total production cost indices: Theory and applications." Journal of Productivity Analysis 2, no. 2 (1991): 91–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00156340.

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Torres, César, and Antonio Valero. "The Exergy Cost Theory Revisited." Energies 14, no. 6 (2021): 1594. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14061594.

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This paper reviews the fundamentals of the Exergy Cost Theory, an energy cost accounting methodology to evaluate the physical costs of products of energy systems and their associated waste. Besides, a mathematical and computationally approach is presented, which will allow the practitioner to carry out studies on production systems regardless of their structural complexity. The exergy cost theory was proposed in 1986 by Valero et al. in their “General theory of exergy savings”. It has been recognized as a powerful tool in the analysis of energy systems and has been applied to the evaluation of energy saving alternatives, local optimisation, thermoeconomic diagnosis, or industrial symbiosis. The waste cost formation process is presented from a thermodynamic perspective rather than the economist’s approach. It is proposed to consider waste as external irreversibilities occurring in plant processes. A new concept, called irreversibility carrier, is introduced, which will allow the identification of the origin, transfer, partial recovery, and disposal of waste.
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Larson, Bruce. "A Dilemma in the Theory of Short-Run Production and Cost." Southern Economic Journal 58, no. 2 (1991): 465. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1060188.

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Eatwell, John. "‘COST OF PRODUCTION’ AND THE THEORY OF THE RATE OF PROFIT." Contributions to Political Economy 38, no. 1 (2019): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cpe/bzz013.

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SALVADORI, NERI, and IAN STEEDMAN. "COST FUNCTIONS AND PRODUCED MEANS OF PRODUCTION: DUALITY AND CAPITAL THEORY*." Contributions to Political Economy 4, no. 1 (1985): 79–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cpe.a035692.

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He, Juan, Xiaoyong Zheng, Roderick Rejesus, and Jose Yorobe. "Input use under cost‐of‐production crop insurance: Theory and evidence." Agricultural Economics 51, no. 3 (2020): 343–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/agec.12558.

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Xu, Xin Wei, Le Fang, and Xian Li Zhu. "The Study of MTA Production Model and Production Processes." Applied Mechanics and Materials 268-270 (December 2012): 2062–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.268-270.2062.

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MTA ( the availability of production ) is a new production model proposed by Dr. Goldratt . This paper which is based on fuzzy theory and inventory cost theory is to study the strategy of dynamic adjustment of buffer stock by means of establishing membership function of the real stock and the consumption model which is based on membership. Enterprise have to adjust the buffer stock immediately when the membership of the real stock which worked out from the model is higher or lower than a particular numerical and then enterprise can get the products production processes.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Production Cost Theory"

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McGuire, Alistair James. "The economics of the hospital : an analysis of production and cost relations." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 1987. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk/R?func=search-advanced-go&find_code1=WSN&request1=AAIU009748.

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This study consists of an economic analysis of the Scottish hospital sector. In particular analysis is directed towards an understanding of the hospital production process and the resultant cost - output relations. Both theoretical and empirical study is undertaken. The underlying methodological approach relies heavily on the transaction cost analysis developed by Williamson (1975). As such the study suggests that many of the traditional neo-classical theories applied to the hospital sector have been misdirected. The study includes a review of existing theories of hospital behaviour and the empirical literature on hospital production and cost functions. This reveals that there has been little overlap between these two literatures. It is suggested that this is largely because the hospital as an economic institution does not readily lend itself to positive analysis. In part this arises because of the inherent characteristics of the hospital production process, but it is also suggested that economic analysis at this level of aggregation is not appropriate. A behavioural analysis of hospital production is forwarded which emphasises the internal allocation processes. The agency relationship that exists between the doctor and the patient is highlighted, as are the underlying ethical constraints within which this relationship operates. The importance of internal organisational and process choice aspects of production are also emphasised. The rights to self-regulation held by the medical profession are seen to lie outside of the normal monitoring and control channels which are focussed largely upon the expenditure determination process. The limitations of a neo-classical production function analysis is outlined through the empirical estimation of a generalisable production function applied to a sample of Scottish hospitals. Following consideration of the behavioural aspects of the hospital production process a behavioural cost function model is estimated. As a secondary objective analysis of the specification of hospital output is undertaken.
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Turner, Lyle Robert. "Production structure models and applications within a Statistical Activity Cost Theory (SACT) Framework." Queensland University of Technology, 2007. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/16310/.

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Statistical Activity Cost Theory (SACT) is an axiomatic and statistical theory of basic accounting measurement practice. The aim of the SACT analysis, among others, is to determine the statistical nature of both the physical production system of an accounting entity and its related costs, which can then be examined and applied to various decision-making problems. A central proposition of SACT is that the physical system of the entity, and the costs related to this system, are separate structures which can be modelled as such. To date, however, mini- mal progress has been made in describing production process structures within the SACT framework, and nor have there been any advances made in applying common statistical techniques to such an analysis. This thesis, therefore, moves to extend the basic theory that has already been developed, presenting a novel method for representing and examining the physical processes that make up an entity's production system. It also examines the costing of these physical models, such that transactional data can be examined and related back to the underlying production processes. The thesis concludes by giving an example of such an application in a case study. The analysis developed in this thesis has been applied in a larger project which aims to produce generic modelling and decision tools, based upon SACT, to support return and risk management.
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Hatkoff, Daniel. "Production cost structure and commercial success in the new film industry." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1355255118.

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Kuepfer, Roland. "The low cost production imperative and foreign direct investment decision by small and medium sized enterprises." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2010. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/2262/.

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Global production shifts in the form of foreign direct investments are reshaping the economic map: one of the outcomes is today’s global production system. The firms in focus are confronted with the effects of the reshaped economic map, especially with the differences in production conditions of nations. The new situation, which has emerged, is summarised by the term ‘low cost production imperative’. Consequently, the purpose of this dissertation is to empirically explore the notion of the ‘low cost production imperative’; and to investigate the implications and consequences of the low cost production imperative for internationalisation decision-making. Scholars of academic studies summarise that fairly little is known about companies’ foreign direct investment decision-making processes and the combination of the determinants with location-specific variables with the strategic motivation of the investing firm. It is assumed even more rarely, that investigations combine the knowledge based on which firms identify important location-specific variables under an enforcing strategic motive and then have to decide a location choice in a low cost operation area. The research is carried out with the eventual aim of generating theory and producing insights into the strategic management practices of the firms in focus and their position in relation to uncertainty, predictability, and preparedness for the outcome of their decision-making related to the phenomenon. The methodological conduct of this inquiry is framed within the qualitative paradigm. The methodological contribution lies in the combination of applied methodologies and modus operandi so that a rich and holistic insight into the phenomenon will be achieved. The research results show a rich variety in outcomes and details from the cases regarding their examination with the determinants important for a successful foreign direct investment. It is evident in all the cases that decision makers behave according to different rules than those assumed much of in the international business literature. Further, the phenomenon is identified as a serious outside force that causes firms to consider a decision to look abroad or more detailed, to look for efficiency in distant regions. This dissertation identifies details of mentioned aspects and calls for applications in future research in international business.
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Marroquin, Jacklin Beatriz. "Examination of North Dakota's Production, Cost, and Profit Functions: A Quantile Regression Analysis." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2008. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29736.

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This thesis estimates the production, cost, and profit functions for North Dakota agriculture using state-level input-output quantity and price data for the period 1960-2004. A Cobb-Douglas functional form with Hick-neutral technology change is used to measure the contribution of capital, land, labor, materials, energy, and chemical inputs quantities and output quantity using the primal production function; contribution of capital quantity, land quantity, output quantity, labor price, materials price, energy price, and chemical price to cost using the dual restricted cost function; and the contribution of capital quantity, land quantity, labor price, materials price, energy price, chemical price, output price to profit using the dual restricted profit function. In contrast to previous studies, quantile regression is used to explore the linear or nonlinear relationship between the independent and dependent variable by estimating parameter coefficients at each quantile using time-series data. Empirical findings suggest the cost function is the best model to examine the relationship between input prices, output quantity and cost using quantile regression for North Dakota agriculture, Further, the quantile regression suggests a linear and non-linear relationship between cost and certain independent variables.
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Dunert, Sofie, and Patrik Westerling. "Outsourcing and Sustained Competitive Advantage : How do Swedish technical production firms in a competitive environment and high technical uncertainty find the right balance between outsourcing and in-house development that enhances their sustainable competitive advantage when they outsource their Research & Development externally?" Thesis, Halmstad University, School of Business and Engineering (SET), 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-5299.

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<p>The purpose of this thesis is to find out when Research and Development (R&D) becomes a suitable attribute for a production company to outsource. In an environment where innovations are following up quickly up and uncertainty about the type of innovation and customer is a fact, external sourcing can bring a competitive advantage. The empirical evidence shows that when R&D is outsourced the total cost does not increase at a due cause of outsourcing in this given study.</p><p>Although a lot of theory explains outsourcing as a cost increasing factor, the internal experience and frequent relation between the technical production company Beta and its R&D vendor company Alfa can decrease costs considerably due to lower communication and governance costs. This was not explicitly expressed in related theory and is therefore a contribution to the academia as well as for managers who seek to find an answer to the question of when to outsource and when not to outsource.</p>
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Bahri, Armand Mohammadmahdi. "Apports des théories de la firme à l'étude des décisions d'internalisation de la production de la formation professionnelle." Thesis, Paris 9, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA090073.

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Malgré les enjeux stratégiques de l’organisation de la production de la formation professionnelle, très peu d’études empiriques ont été effectuées sur ce sujet. Cette lacune est particulièrement visible sur les choix de gouvernance, qui concernent la mobilisation des ressources et compétences internes ou le recours à des prestataires externes pour assurer les différentes étapes de conception et d’animation d’une action de formation. L’objectif de cette recherche est d’étudier les facteurs qui influent sur la décision d’internalisation ou d’externalisation de la production de la formation, à l’aide d’un modèle théorique issu des principales théories de la firme, à savoir la théorie des coûts de transaction et la (les) théorie(s) des ressources et compétences. Il me en évidence le lien entre les caractéristiques d’une action de formation (spécificité transactionnelle, spécificité foncière, récurrence, incertitude environnementale et interdépendance) et la décision d’internalisation. Cette relation est expliquée par un certain nombre de variables médiatrices liées à la perception des décideurs quant aux risques d’opportunisme et aux aptitudes de production et de coordination dont ils disposent en comparaison avec les prestataires externes. Le modèle théorique est mis à l’épreuve des faits à travers une étude de cas sur la direction de la formation du groupe Veolia. Nous avons mené dans un premier temps une étude qualitative pour mieux comprendre la façon dont les concepts du modèle émergent, prennent forme et influent sur la décision des praticiens dans le contexte de la production de la formation. Pour vérifier la validité des hypothèses avancées, nous avons ensuite conduit une démarche quantitative centrée sur un échantillon de 140 actions de formation, en mobilisant la méthode d’équations structurelle PLS (PLS-SEM). Les résultats obtenus apportent un éclairage significatif à l’analyse des décisions de gouvernance en matière de production de la formation professionnelle continue, et permettent également de souligner un certain nombre de lacunes sur les théories mobilisées<br>The aim of this research is to study the factors that impact the decision to insource or outsource the production of vocational training programs, by using a theoretical model from the main theories of the firm, namely Transaction Cost Theory and Resources and Capabilities Theory. In doing so, we link the characteristics of a training program (transactional specificity, firm specificity, frequency, environmental uncertainty and interdependence) and insourcing decision. This relationship is explained by some mediating variables related to the perception of decision makers about the risks of opportunism and their productive and coordinative capabilities in comparison with external training providers. The theoretical model was tested through a case study on the training direction of Veolia group. We first performed a qualitative study to better understand how the concepts of our model, emerge, take shape and influence the decision of practitioners in the context of training production. Then, in order to test the validity of our hypothesis, we conducted a quantitative study based on a sample of 140 training programs, by using the method of structural equations modeling. The results provide both a detailed analysis of training production governance and a critical assessment of the theories of the firm
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Caballero, Sebastian. "Build, Buy or Partner – Digitizing Securities Trading in Swedish Retail Banking." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-279567.

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Rapid rate of digitalization, emerging financial technology and changes in consumer behaviour have begun to transform the existing paradigm in the financial industry. Incumbent banks have found it difficult to keep up with this change however and are now faced with the challenge of deciding on what digital financial services build internally, buy externally or develop through partnerships. This study attempts to get a general overview of what factors traditional Swedish retail banks need to consider before deciding on a build, buy or partner strategy in order to digitize their financial services offering. This is done through a case study, where the empirical data consists of interviews with the retail division of a Swedish bank looking to digitize their securities trading offering as a response to a transforming industry. A few interviews were also conducted with people outside of the bank to increase the generalizability somewhat. The findings of the study identified 16 factors to be considered by traditional banks when faced with the challenge of deciding on whether to build, buy or partner in order to digitize their securities trading offering. Out of these, 9 factors were deemed to be especially important; Sustainable Competitive Advantage, Flexibility, Uncertainty, Supplier/Partner Relationship, Economies of Scale, Specialized Resources, Integration, Asset Specificity and Regulation. Several of the factors identified were shown to influence the build, buy or partner decision both positively and negatively and their impact should therefore be carefully evaluated and weighed against each other by managers before making a final decision on a build, buy or partner strategy.<br>Ökad digitaliseringstakt, ny finansiell teknologi och förändringar i kundbeteenden driver på en transformering inom finansindustrin. Traditionella banker har haft svårt att följa med i denna utveckling, och ställs nu inför utmaningen att bestämma vilka digital finansiella tjänster de bör bygga internt, köpa in externt eller utveckla tillsammans med en extern aktör genom ett partnerskap. Denna studie syftar till att få en generell överblick över vilka faktorer som svenska storbanker behöver överväga innan de beslutar sig för en bygg-, köp- eller partnerstrategi för att digitalisera sitt erbjudande av finansiella tjänster. Detta görs i form av en case studie, där den empiriska datan till största del består av intervjuer med nyckelpersonal från en svensk bank som ingår i ett projekt att försöka digitalisera deras värdepappershandelserbjudande som ett svar på en industri i förändring. Ett fåtal intervjuer genomfördes också med personer utanför banken för att öka generaliserbarheten av studien något. Resultatet av studien identifierade 16 faktorer som bör övervägas av traditionella banker som ställs inför beslutet om att bygga, köpa eller ingå i ett partnerskap för att digitalisera sitt värdepappershandelserbjudande. Av dessa anses 9 faktorer vara särskilt viktiga; Långsiktiga Konkurrensfördelar, Flexibilitet, Osäkerhet, Leverantörs-/Partnerrelation, Stordriftsfördelar, Specialiserade Resurser, Integration, Funktionsspecificitet och Regelverk. Resultatet indikerar också att flera av de identifierade faktorer kan påverka beslutet om en bygg-, köp- eller partnerstrategi både positivt och negativt. Deras påverkan bör därför utvärderas noggrant och jämföras mot varandra innan ett slutligt beslut tas gällande en bygg, köp eller partnerstrategi.
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Parman, Bryon James. "Economies of scale for data envelopment analysis with a Kansas farm application." Diss., Kansas State University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/16002.

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Doctor of Philosophy<br>Department of Agricultural Economics<br>Vincent Amanor-Boadu<br>Allen M. Featherstone<br>Estimation of cost functions can provide useful economic information to producers, economists, and policy makers. From the estimation of a cost function, it is possible to calculate cost efficiency, economies of scope, and economies of scale. Economic theory specifies the cost function as a frontier since firms cannot operate at lower cost than the cost minimizing input/output bundle. However, traditional parametric estimation techniques often violate economic theory using two sided-error systems. The stochastic frontier method has allowed the estimation of a frontier but continues to restrict the technology through functional assumption. Nonparametric frontier estimation is an alternative approach to estimate a cost frontier by enveloping the data which by its construct, conforms to economic theory. This research expands the economic information available by deriving multi-product scale economies and product-specific scale economies from the nonparametric approach. It also tests its ability to accurately recover these important economic measures under different assumptions of the cost function, and cost inefficiency distributions. Next, this new method is compared to other methods used to estimate cost functions and associated economic measures including a two-sided error system, stochastic frontier method, and an OLS model restricting the errors to take on only positive values. Finally, the nonparametric approach with the new measures is applied to a sample of Kansas farms. The nonparametric approach is able to closely estimate economies of scale and scope from estimation of a cost frontier. Comparison reveals that the nonparametric approach is closer to the “true” economic measures than some parametric methods and that it is better able to extrapolate out of sample when there are no zero output firms. Finally, the nonparametric approach shows that potential cost savings from economies of scale and economies of scope exist for small Kansas farms. However, cost savings from economies of scale become exhausted when farms exceed gross annual revenues of $500k, while economies of scope also diminish as farms grow larger. Results also show from annual frontier estimations that estimates of economies of scale, scope, and cost efficiency have remained relatively stable from 2002 to 2011.
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Guevara, Sánchez Edwar Paul, and Guardamino Rosa Albina Zegarra. "Aplicación de un modelo integrado de gestión de la producción para mejorar la productividad de la línea de fabricación de llaves de cerradura." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Ricardo Palma, 2015. http://cybertesis.urp.edu.pe/handle/urp/1294.

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La investigación está orientada al diseño e implementación de un Modelo Integrado de Gestión de la Producción para la fabricación de llaves de cerradura, este modelo integra la teoría de restricciones para resolver los cuellos de botella y utiliza algunas herramientas de Lean Manufacturing para eliminar los desperdicios que se generan en los procesos que generan los cuellos de botella. El objetivo de la aplicación del modelo es el mejorar la productividad de la línea de fabricación de llaves de cerradura, la reducción de costos mediante la mejora de la eficiencia de sus procesos que permitan a la empresa ser más competitiva en el mercado. The research is focused on the design and implementation of an integrated management of production for the manufacture of keys lock model, this model integrates the theory of constraints to solve bottlenecks and used some tools of lean manufacturing to eliminate waste that is generated in the processes that create bottlenecks. The purpose of applying the model is to improve the productivity of the manufacturing line lock keys, reducing costs by improving the efficiency of their processes that enable the company to be more competitive in the market.
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Books on the topic "Production Cost Theory"

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Fandel, Günter. Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5.

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Fandel, G. Theory of production and cost. Springer-Verlag, 1991.

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Shawna, Grosskopf, ed. Cost and revenue constrained production. Springer-Verlag, 1994.

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Heathfield, David F. An introduction to cost and production functions. Humanities Press International, 1987.

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1946-, Wibe Sören, ed. An introduction to cost and production functions. Macmillan, 1987.

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Parr, John B. Industry cost curves and the spatial organisation of production. Dept. of Economics, Fraser of Allander Institute, 1995.

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Parr, John B. Industry cost curves and the spatial organisation of production. Dept.of Economics, Fraser of Allander Institute, 1994.

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Lai, Kon S. Nonconvex costs and the volatility of production. University of Toronto, 1989.

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William, Dettmer H., ed. Manufacturing at warp speed: Optimizing supply chain financial performance. St. Lucie Press, 2000.

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Schragenheim, Eli. Manufacturing at warp speed: Optimizing supply chain financial performance : includes simplified drum-buffer-rope. St. Lucie Press, 2001.

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Book chapters on the topic "Production Cost Theory"

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Fandel, Günter. "Fundamentals of Production Theory." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_2.

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Fandel, Günter. "Substitutional Production Functions." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_3.

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Fandel, Günter. "Limitational Production Functions." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_4.

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Fandel, Günter. "Fundamentals of a Cost Theory and Minimal Cost Combination." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_8.

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Fandel, Günter. "Empirical Validity of Production Functions." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_7.

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Fandel, Günter. "Introductory Survey of the Production Field." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_1.

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Fandel, Günter. "Combined Processes of Adjustment for Several Functionally Identical Aggregates." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_10.

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Fandel, Günter. "Some Further Approaches in the Field of Static-Deterministic Production Functions." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_5.

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Fandel, Günter. "Dynamic and Stochastic Extensions in the Field of Production Functions." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_6.

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Fandel, Günter. "Cost Functions on the Basis of Special Production Functions." In Theory of Production and Cost. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76812-5_9.

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Conference papers on the topic "Production Cost Theory"

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Seliaman, M. E., Ab Rahman Ahmad, and Abdul-Wahid A. Saif. "Production and Inventory Decisions in a Multi-Stage Supply Chain with Transportation Cost." In Communication Technologies: from Theory to Applications (ICTTA). IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ictta.2008.4529993.

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Neimane, V., A. Sauhats, G. Vempers, J. Inde, I. Tereskina, and G. Bockarjova. "Allocating production cost at CHP plant to heat and power using cooperative game theory." In 2009 IEEE Bucharest PowerTech (POWERTECH). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ptc.2009.5281907.

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Neimane, V., A. Sauhats, G. Vempers, I. Tereskina, and G. Bockarjova. "Allocating production cost at CHP plant to heat and power based on cooperative game theory." In 2009 6th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2009). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2009.5207193.

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Xu Liu, Hongtao Wang, Qinyong Zhou, and Bin Hu. "Power system probabilistic cost production simulation with wind power penetration based on multi-state system theory." In 2012 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting. New Energy Horizons - Opportunities and Challenges. IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pesgm.2012.6345615.

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Akinsanya, Akinyemi O., Jianjun Qin, John D. Sørensen, and Michael H. Faber. "Cost-Optimal Planning of Inspections and Maintenance of Production Tubings Subject to Scale Deterioration." In ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-18264.

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Abstract Integrity tests, inspections (caliper log) and maintenance activities are critical to the integrity management of the production tubing and are important to ensure that loss of production — due to e.g. excessive reduction in the wells cross-section and numerous unplanned shut-ins, is reduced over the service life while maintaining safety and availability. The progressive loss of integrity of production resulting from deterioration processes such as scaling, are time variant with large uncertainties. The time variability together with large uncertainties is one main driver of increasing need of rational tools for cost-optimal planning of inspections and maintenance. Optimal planning of inspections and maintenance is therefore necessary to achieve timely and risk-efficient management of the production wells by finding a trade-off between the cost of inspection and maintenance, and the benefit of increased production amongst others. This paper presents a framework for identifying cost-optimal planning of inspections and maintenance of the production tubing of sub-surface oil and gas wells subject to time dependent scale degradation. The proposed framework is based on a risk-based approach, which allows uncertainties to be accounted for. By adopting this approach, the strategies which give the minimum expected value of the total cost of inspection and maintenance are identified. In this paper, the approach uses categorization of the sizes of scale thickness characterized by damage sizes, and inspection results into damage states, and takes into account imperfection in the inspection results in terms of the probability of detection and damage sizing accuracy. For each of the damage states, a certain damage cost and maintenance decision rules, stating the next line of action, are established. The inspection and maintenance decision problems are therefore modeled based on the pre-defined decision rules while the optimization parameters are the intervals of inspections and the maintenance alternatives. The probabilistic model, accounting for uncertainties, scale propagation proposed by Guan et. al. (2019) is used to describe the scale growth or damage evolution. Bayesian pre-posterior decision theory is the basis for the decision making. All costs — including damage, inspections and maintenance costs, through the lifetime of the production tubing are evaluated and included in the decision model and the expected value of the life cycle costs are estimated and compared for different maintenance alternatives. An example in the paper demonstrates the framework and the implementation of the decision rules for one sub-surface production well subject to calcite scales.
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Zhu, Jianmin, and Kwun-Lon Ting. "Tolerance Specification for Cost Reduction." In ASME 2002 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2002/dfm-34162.

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The paper presents a novel optimal tolerance specification technique to minimize product cost. By introducing the properties of order statistics and the theory of tolerance limit to the traditional simulation method, a n dimensional tolerance search problem is transformed into a two dimensional one. The established tolerance limit inference method has the advantages of high efficiency for computation, robust for any distribution, and guaranteed confidence level compared with other tolerance specification methods. In addition, to obtain the optimal product cost, unlike most cost analysis models, the production yield level in the analysis is treated as an optimal variable instead of a constant. The approach is demonstrated by examples.
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Betancourth, Jairo A., Vi´ctor H. Rangel, J. Jesu´s Pacheco, Abel Hernandez, and Jose´ C. Rubio. "Thermoeconomic Costs of Production Analysis of a Diesel Cycle- Based Cogeneration Power Plant." In ASME 2006 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2006-16382.

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In this paper a thermoeconomic costs of production analysis of a diesel cycle-based cogeneration Honduran power plant is presented in order to obtain the total production cost of electricity and to obtain a costs allocation that is more rigorous, based on exergy concepts. These costs provide an idea of the measure of sacrifices of the utilized resources in order to generate the final product. Many papers related with thermoeconomic analysis can be cited. However, there are few articles related to this kind of analysis applied to a diesel cycle-based cogeneration power plant. Here, the Exergy Costs Theory has been applied in order to achieve the objectives. The power plant has 8 internal combustion engines with an 11.340 MW capacity each. Only three of them have a boiler installed which uses the exhaust gases of combustion for vapor generation. The others five emit the exhaust gases to the environment. Some options are explored to commercialize the residual steam since it is ejected still at high temperatures, either as direct sale or cogeneration for power production using micro turbines.
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Florentino, Saul, David De Leon, and Jorge Silva. "Optimal Inspection Methodology for Offshore Structures Based on an Economic Decision Theory." In ASME 2004 23rd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2004-51214.

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About 200 marine platforms are installed in the Mexican sector of the Gulf of Mexico so that maintenance and inspection schedules play an important role to avoid excessive structural deterioration of the oil facilities and at the same time to keep the facilities within acceptable safety margins. Large costs associated with inspection and repair actions moved managers towards the application of an optimal strategy in order to minimize inspection expenses. For these purposes, it is necessary to consider deterioration process such as fatigue crack growth under the influence of uncertain wave loading which is the dominant force while effort is focused on maintaining structural integrity and safe production. This paper presents an optimal inspection methodology for offshore structures based on an economic decision theory, bearing in mind that large costs are associated with structural failure and extensive inspection and repairs. A system failure analysis of a given sub set of the critical structural components is included as well as a mathematical framework for the assessment of failure and repair cost associated.
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Das, Aditya N., Nahum A. Torres, and Dan O. Popa. "A Flexible Manufacturing System Architecture for On-Demand, Rate-Independent Production." In ASME 2015 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2015-50797.

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For low to medium production volumes or products with short life cycle, dedicated manufacturing lines often end up being a commercial burden. The high initial non-recurring expenses of the manufacturing infrastructure are eventually passed onto the cost of the product, limiting its commercialization potential. In such cases, flexible frameworks for manufacturing are ideal, at least in theory, with reusability of the same hardware for different product developments. From an implementation standpoint, however, flexible manufacturing platforms are difficult to deploy as they suffer from inherent uncertainties that severely constrains the overall precision in task execution. Low cost flexible robotic manipulation systems, configured using individual modules from an assortment of positioners, often lack the precision required for assemblies with stringent tolerance budgets and therefore have to rely on expensive feedback systems for reliability at the trade-off of process throughput. In order to overcome this fundamental challenge with flexible or modular assembly and packaging systems, this paper presents a novel precision evaluation and control technique. The proposed solution estimates and tracks the end-effector position errors in a robotic manipulation system resulting from the kinematic configuration as well as the dynamic parameters for each specific task; thereby, allowing the automation application to compensate for these errors in run-time. The computation does not require active feedback, thus ensures high throughput while maintaining high reliability. The experimental results provided in this paper demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in the case of a high precision micromanipulation task using a custom robotic manipulation system. The analysis also demonstrates that different system configurations offer different levels of precision metrics.
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Sheil, Henry, and Peter Young. "Challenging the Need for Dual Gas Production Flowline Systems Using Emerging Hydrate Remediation Intervention Technology." In ASME 2011 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2011-49191.

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Gas production flowlines are presenting flow assurance challenges in hydrate management resulting from low ambient seawater temperatures in an increasing number of deepwater developments. During operation the equilibrium hydrate temperature of the produced fluid may be above the minimum seabed temperature, and hence there is a risk of hydrate blockage in the subsea system should the hydrate inhibition system fail. The continuous injection of MEG, with little or no insulation of the subsea system, is a common hydrate mitigation strategy for a gas production system. If insufficient inhibitor is injected there is a risk of hydrates forming and potential blockage of the pipeline in parts of the field. The industry-preferred approach for hydrate blockage remediation is Dual Sided Depressurisation (DSD). The objective is to depressurise the flowline to below hydrate onset conditions, allowing hydrate dissociation and safely disposing of the gas inventory. This is typically performed by one of two methods; installation of a dual flowline system for facility based depressurisation (with CAPEX implications); or a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) can be connected to an appropriate point upstream of the blockage to allow simultaneous depressurisation at the MODU and the facility (with OPEX implications). It is recognised that either method incurs significant costs. Typically the cost and time uncertainties of bringing in a MODU to solve these production stoppages is unattractive. Consequently subsea gas developments have often incurred the increased CAPEX of providing dual flowlines to permit DSD from the facility. An optimisation of the MODU-based intervention method is the subject of this paper. The feasibility of using a “lightweight” intervention vessel (for example an Offshore Support Vessel) in place of the MODU to depressurise the flowline is discussed. This paper discusses hydrate remediation difficulties and case studies; presents emerging hydrate remediation methods and briefly introduces vessel requirements. In discussing this optimisation, this paper also presents an introduction to hydrate remediation theory, some practical challenges, case studies and vessel requirements. The study concluded: • Significant CAPEX reductions may be achieved by adopting the outlined strategy; namely avoiding dual flowline infrastructure, and ensuring a reduced response time and day rate for any hydrate remediation operations to be performed. • For this strategy to be adopted cost effectively, pre-engineering, along with suitable contractual arrangements, are required to make the necessary equipment and personnel resources readily available should a hydrate blockage occur. For assets in remote locations, e.g. Australia, making the resources available is a significant challenge. • Flowline system access for depressurisation may be achieved by two methods; via the subsea Christmas tree or via suitably located fluid injection/vent access point(s).
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Reports on the topic "Production Cost Theory"

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Slattery, Kevin. Unsettled Topics on the Benefit of Additive Manufacturing for Production at the Point of Use in the Mobility Industry. SAE International, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/epr2021006.

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An oft-cited benefit of additive manufacturing (AM), or “3D-printing,” technology is the ability to produce parts at the point of use by downloading a digital file and making the part at a local printer. This has the potential to greatly compress supply chains, lead times, inventories, and design iterations for custom parts. As a result of this, both manufacturing and logistics companies are investigating and investing in AM capacity for production at the point of use. However, it can be imagined that the feasibility and benefits are a function of size, materials, build time, manufacturing complexity, cost, and competing technologies. Because of this, there are instances where the viability of point-of-use manufacturing ranges from the perfect solution to the worst possible choice. Unsettled Topics on the Benefits of Additive Manufacturing for Production at the Point of Use in the Mobility Industry discusses the benefits, challenges, trade-offs, and other determining factors regarding this new level of AM possibilities.
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Roye, Thorsten. Unsettled Technology Areas in Deterministic Assembly Approaches for Industry 4.0. SAE International, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/epr2021018.

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Increased production rates and cost reduction are affecting manufacturing in all sectors of the mobility industry. One enabling methodology that could achieve these goals in the burgeoning “Industry 4.0” environment is the deterministic assembly (DA) approach. The DA approach is defined as an optimized assembly process; it always forms the same final structure and has a strong link to design-for-assembly and design-for-automation methodologies. It also looks at the whole supply chain, enabling drastic savings at the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) level by reducing recurring costs and lead time. Within Industry 4.0, DA will be required mainly for the aerospace and the space industry, but serves as an interesting approach for other industries assembling large and/or complex components. In its entirety, the DA approach connects an entire supply chain—from part manufacturing at an elementary level to an OEM’s final assembly line level. Addressing the whole process of aircraft design and manufacturing is necessary to develop further collaboration models between OEMs and the supply chain, including addressing the most pressing technology challenges. Since all parts aggregate at the OEM level, the OEM—as an integrator of all these single parts—needs special end-to-end methodologies to drastically decrease cost and lead time. This holistic approach can be considered in part design as well (in the design-for-automation and design-for-assembly philosophy). This allows for quicker assembly at the OEM level, such as “part-to-part” or “hole-to-hole” approaches, versus traditional, classical assembly methods like manual measurement or measurement-assisted assembly. In addition, it can increase flexibility regarding rate changes in production (such as those due to pandemic- or climate-related environmental challenges). The standardization and harmonization of these areas would help all industries and designers to have a deterministic approach with an end-to-end concept. Simulations can easily compare possible production and assembly steps with different impacts on local and global tolerances. Global measurement feedback needs high-accuracy turnkey solutions, which are very costly and inflexible. The goal of standardization would be to use Industry 4.0 feedback and features, as well as to define several building blocks of the DA approach as a one-way assembly (also known as one-up assembly, or “OUA”), false one-way assembly, “Jig-as-Master,” etc., up to the hole-to-hole assembly approach. The evolution of these assembly principles and the link to simulation approaches are undefined and unsolved domains; they are discussed in this report. They must be discussed in greater depth with aims of (first) clarifying the scope of the industry-wide alignment needs and (second) prioritizing the issues requiring standardization. NOTE: SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are intended to identify and illuminate key issues in emerging, but still unsettled, technologies of interest to the mobility industry. The goal of SAE EDGE™ Research Reports is to stimulate discussion and work in the hope of promoting and speeding resolution of identified issues. SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are not intended to resolve the challenges they identify or close any topic to further scrutiny.
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Aldendifer, Elise, McKenzie Coe, Taylor Faught, et al. The Safe and Efficient Development of Offshore Transboundary Hydrocarbons: Best Practices from the North Sea and Their Application to the Gulf of Mexico. Edited by Gabriel Eckstein. Texas A&M University School of Law Program in Energy, Environmental, & Natural Resource Systems, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.37419/eenrs.offshoretransboundaryhydrocarbons.

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Offshore hydrocarbon resources have been developed for many decades, and with technology improvements, many fields which were once impossible to develop, are now economically and technologically feasible. This has led to a growing difficulty in determining the legislative and regulatory framework for resources that straddle the recognized borders between two states. In this paper, we examine a successful framework agreement governing the transboundary resources between the United Kingdom (“U.K.”) and Norway in the North Sea, and the agreement between the United States and Mexico governing the Gulf of Mexico. Following the 2013 Energy Reform, the Mexican energy sector has been revitalized, leading to greater exploration, development, and production than ever before. This means that in the near future transboundary resources may be licensed for production, bringing the issues highlighted in this paper to the attention of multiple government and international entities. This paper seeks to recommend improvements to the transboundary framework in the Gulf of Mexico based on the successful framework agreement utilized in the North Sea. This paper begins by introducing international law for offshore resources in Part II. Part III discusses the offshore regulatory regimes in the U.K. and Norway, analyzing how the two states have successfully used bilateral agreements to facilitate cooperation regarding effective exploitation and apportionment of costs from cross-boundary offshore oil and gas projects in the North Sea. Part IV discusses the offshore regulatory regimes in the United States and Mexico and analyzes the current transboundary agreement in place for the Gulf of Mexico. Part V compares the transboundary agreement governing the North Sea and the same governing the Gulf of Mexico. We highlight the major differences in the agreements and suggest changes to the Gulf of Mexico agreement based on the successful North Sea agreement. Finally, this paper concludes and provides key policy recommendations to improve the rules and regulations surrounding the exploitation of transboundary hydrocarbons in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Slattery, Kevin. Unsettled Topics on Surface Finishing of Metallic Powder Bed Fusion Parts in the Mobility Industry. SAE International, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/epr2021001.

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Laser and electron-beam powder bed fusion (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) technology has transitioned from prototypes and tooling to production components in demanding fields such as medicine and aerospace. Some of these components have geometries that can only be made using AM. Initial applications either take advantage of the relatively high surface roughness of metal PBF parts, or they are in fatigue, corrosion, or flow environments where surface roughness does not impose performance penalties. To move to the next levels of performance, the surfaces of laser and electron-beam PBF components will need to be smoother than the current as-printed surfaces. This will also have to be achieve on increasingly more complex geometries without significantly increasing the cost of the final component. Unsettled Topics on Surface Finishing of Metallic Powder Bed Fusion Parts in the Mobility Industry addresses the challenges and opportunities of this technology, and what remains to be agreed upon by the industry.
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Wallgren, Anders, and Britt Wallgren. Toward an Integrated Statistical System Based on Registers. Inter-American Development Bank, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003204.

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This note describes how Latin American and Caribbean countries can join a revolution in statistical systems, moving from data collection based on geographic frames to one based on administrative registers, and the advantages of making this change. Northern European countries have already shifted from a traditional area frame-based statistical system to a register-based system, in which all surveys are based on statistical registers. Among the key advantages of the shift are: i) lower production costs; ii) potential for higher levels of geographic disaggregation and greater frequency; and iii) reduce the burden on informants by following the maxim of “ask once, use many times”. Evidence from Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru points to the viability of this transition in the region. However, to take better advantage of the new strategy, countries should invest to improve the quality and coverage of their administrative systems and should create an integrated register system, allowing for efficient data use, and ensuring consistency and coherence across statistical registries.
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Saillant, Eric, Jason Lemus, and James Franks. Culture of Lobotes surinamensis (Tripletail). Mississippi Department of Marine Resources, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.18785/ose.001.

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The Tripletail, Lobotes surinamensis, is a pelagic fish found in tropical and sub-tropical waters of all oceans. Tripletails are often associated with floating debris and make frequent incursions in bays and estuaries where they are targeted by recreational fishermen. In Mississippi waters the species is typically present during the late spring and summer season that also correspond to the period of sexual maturation and spawning (Brown-Peterson and Franks 2001). Tripletail is appreciated as a gamefish but is also prized for its flesh of superior quality. The fast growth rate of juveniles in captivity documented by Franks et al. (2001) and the excellent quality of Tripletail flesh both contribute to the potential of this species for marine aquaculture. In addition, the production of cultured juveniles would be precious to develop a better understanding of the biology, early life history and habitat use of Tripletail larvae and juveniles, a topic largely undocumented to date, through experimental releases and controlled studies. The culture of tripletail thus supports the Tidelands Trust Fund Program through improved conservation of natural resources, potential enhancement of fisheries productivity and potential development of a new economic activity on the Gulf coast producing tripletail via aquaculture. The Objective of this project was to initiate development of methods and techniques needed to spawn captive held tripletail broodfish and raise their offspring to evaluate their growth and development in captivity. In this report we will present the results of studies aiming to develop methods and protocols for captive spawning of tripletail and the first data obtained on the early development of tripletail larvae. A major issue that was encountered with tripletail broodstock development during the project lied in the difficulties associated with identifying the sex of adults caught in the wild and candidates for being incorporated in mating sets for spawning. This issue was addressed during the course of the project by examining the potential of a non-lethal method of hormonal sexing. The results of these preliminary investigations are presented in the third part of this report. All protocols used in the project were determined with the guidance of the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC) of the University of Southern Mississippi (USM IACUC protocol number 10100108).
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Führ, Martin, Julian Schenten, and Silke Kleihauer. Integrating "Green Chemistry" into the Regulatory Framework of European Chemicals Policy. Sonderforschungsgruppe Institutionenanalyse, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783941627727.

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20 years ago a concept of “Green Chemistry” was formulated by Paul Anastas and John Warner, aiming at an ambitious agenda to “green” chemical products and processes. Today the concept, laid down in a set of 12 principles, has found support in various arenas. This diffusion was supported by enhancements of the legislative framework; not only in the European Union. Nevertheless industry actors – whilst generally supporting the idea – still see “cost and perception remain barriers to green chemistry uptake”. Thus, the questions arise how additional incentives as well as measures to address the barriers and impediments can be provided. An analysis addressing these questions has to take into account the institutional context for the relevant actors involved in the issue. And it has to reflect the problem perception of the different stakeholders. The supply chain into which the chemicals are distributed are of pivotal importance since they create the demand pull for chemicals designed in accordance with the “Green Chemistry Principles”. Consequently, the scope of this study includes all stages in a chemical’s life-cycle, including the process of designing and producing the final products to which chemical substances contribute. For each stage the most relevant legislative acts, together establishing the regulatory framework of the “chemicals policy” in the EU are analysed. In a nutshell the main elements of the study can be summarized as follows: Green Chemistry (GC) is the utilisation of a set of principles that reduces or eliminates the use or generation of hazardous substances in the design, manufacture and application of chemical products. Besides, reaction efficiency, including energy efficiency, and the use of renewable resources are other motives of Green Chemistry. Putting the GC concept in a broader market context, however, it can only prevail if in the perception of the relevant actors it is linked to tangible business cases. Therefore, the study analyses the product context in which chemistry is to be applied, as well as the substance’s entire life-cycle – in other words, the six stages in product innovation processes): 1. Substance design, 2. Production process, 3. Interaction in the supply chain, 4. Product design, 5. Use phase and 6. After use phase of the product (towards a “circular economy”). The report presents an overview to what extent the existing framework, i.e. legislation and the wider institutional context along the six stages, is setting incentives for actors to adequately address problematic substances and their potential impacts, including the learning processes intended to invoke creativity of various actors to solve challenges posed by these substances. In this respect, measured against the GC and Learning Process assessment criteria, the study identified shortcomings (“delta”) at each stage of product innovation. Some criteria are covered by the regulatory framework and to a relevant extent implemented by the actors. With respect to those criteria, there is thus no priority need for further action. Other criteria are only to a certain degree covered by the regulatory framework, due to various and often interlinked reasons. For those criteria, entry points for options to strengthen or further nuance coverage of the respective principle already exist. Most relevant are the deltas with regard to those instruments that influence the design phase; both for the chemical substance as such and for the end-product containing the substance. Due to the multi-tier supply chains, provisions fostering information, communication and cooperation of the various actors are crucial to underpin the learning processes towards the GCP. The policy options aim to tackle these shortcomings in the context of the respective stage in order to support those actors who are willing to change their attitude and their business decisions towards GC. The findings are in general coherence with the strategies to foster GC identified by the Green Chemistry &amp; Commerce Council.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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9

Exploring the Prospects of Using 3D Printing Technology in the South African Human Settlements. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/assaf.2021/0074.

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Abstract:
South Africa is a country with significant socio-economic development challenges, with the majority of South Africans having limited or non-existent access to basic infrastructure, services, housing and socio-economic opportunities etc. The urban housing backlog currently exceeds 2.4 million houses, with many families living in informal settlements. The Breaking New Grounds Policy, 2014 for the creation of sustainable human settlements, acknowledges the challenges facing human settlements, such as, decreasing human settlements grants allocation, increasing housing backlog, mushrooming of informal settlements and urbanisation. The White Paper on Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), 2019 notes that South Africa has not yet fully benefited from the potential of STI in addressing the socio-economic challenges and seeks to support the circular economy principles which entail a systematic change of moving to a zero or low waste resource-efficient society. Further to this, the Science and Technology Roadmap’s intention is to unlock the potential of South Africa’s human settlements for a decent standard of living through the smart uptake of science, technology and innovation. One such novel technology is the Three-Dimensional (3D) printing technology, which has produced numerous incredible structures around the world. 3D printing is a computer-controlled industrial manufacturing process which encompasses additive means of production to create 3D shapes. The effects of such a technology have a potential to change the world we live in and could subsequently pave the roadmap to improve on housing delivery and reduce the negative effects of conventional construction methods on the environment. To this end, the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), in partnership with the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) and the University of Johannesburg (UJ) hosted the second virtual IID seminar titled: Exploring the Prospects of Using 3D Printing Technology in the South African Human Settlements, on 01 March 2021 to explore the potential use of 3D printing technology in human settlements. The webinar presented preliminary findings from a study conducted by UJ, addressing the following topics: 1. The viability of 3D printing technology 2. Cost comparison of 3D printed house to conventional construction 3. Preliminary perceptions on 3D printing of houses Speakers included: Dr Jennifer Mirembe (NDoHS), Dr Jeffrey Mahachi, Mr Refilwe Lediga, Mr Khululekani Ntakana and Dr Luxien Ariyan, all from UJ. There was a unanimous consensus that collaborative efforts from all stakeholders are key to take advantage of this niche technology. @ASSAf_Official; @dsigovza; @go2uj; @The_DHS; #SA 3D_Printing; #3D Print_Housing; #IID
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