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Journal articles on the topic 'Prognóza cen'
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Rosicki, Remigiusz. "Rynek energii elektrycznej w Polsce. Prognozy zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną i prognozy cen energii elektrycznej." Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, no. 1 (December 14, 2018): 142–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2018.1.8.
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Przedmiotem analizy w tekście jest charakterystyka funkcjonowania rynku energii elektrycznej w Polsce. Bardziej szczegółowej analizie poddano lata 2008–2015; położono w niej nacisk na trendy w produkcji i zapotrzebowaniu na energię elektryczną, przy uwzględnieniu rozwoju gospodarczego kraju. Ponadto w tekście uwzględniono prognozy w zakresie zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną na 2030 r. i prognozy cen na energię elektryczną. W przypadku prognoz cen na energię elektryczną zaprezentowano zarówno prognozę jakościową, jak i ilościową. W ostatnim przypadku zaprezentowano wyniki z własnej prognozy, które uzyskano za pomocą zastosowanych wybranych metod analizy dynamiki zjawisk ekonomicznych (model wykładniczy i model liniowy trendu). W związku z koniecznością uszczegółowienia problemu badawczego w tekścieprzedstawiono następujące pytania badawcze: (1)Czy można wykazać specyficzne cechy, które charakteryzowałyby strukturę i funkcjonowanie rynku energii elektrycznej w Polsce? (2) Czy można wskazać charakterystyczny trend w zakresie zmian zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną w Polsce? (3) Czy można wskazać charakterystyczny trend w zakresie zmian cen energii elektrycznej w Polsce?
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POPŁAWSKI, Tomasz. "Krótkoterminowe prognozy cen na Towarowej Giełdzie Energii z wykorzystaniem modelu trendu pełzającego." PRZEGLĄD ELEKTROTECHNICZNY 1, no. 12 (December 5, 2015): 269–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.15199/48.2015.12.69.
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Karlı, Arzu, Gülnar Şensoy, Nurşen Belet, Nazik Yener, Muhammet Akgün, and Muhammet Şükrü Paksu. "Clinical Features and Prognosis of Infants Hospitalized with Pertussis." Journal of Pediatric Infection 7, no. 2 (June 10, 2013): 47–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5152/ced.2013.14.
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Tapısız, Anıl, and Arzu Karlı. "Clinical Features and Prognosis of Infants Hospitalized with Pertussis." Journal of Pediatric Infection 7, no. 3 (September 16, 2013): 128–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.5152/ced.2013.36.
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Pach-Gurgul, Agnieszka. "Główne determinanty wahań cen ropy naftowej na świecie na przełomie lat 2014/2015." Studies of the Industrial Geography Commission of the Polish Geographical Society 30, no. 3 (January 17, 2017): 185–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.24917/20801653.303.14.
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Ceny ropy naftowej ulegają zmianom podobnie jak ceny wielu innych dóbr, jednak konsekwencjeich wahań są znacznie większe niż w przypadku innych dóbr. Do głównych determinant zmian cenropy zalicza się:––czynniki rynkowe określające tendencje cenowe ropy naftowej w długim okresie (long-term drivers):podaż i popyt,––czynniki określające tendencje cenowe ropy naftowej w krótkim okresie (short-term drivers): nastrojeinwestorów i wydarzenia geopolityczne, decyzje OPEC, kurs dolara, prognozy gospodarcze.Lawinowy spadek cen ropy naftowej zapoczątkowany w 2014 roku coraz trudniej można wytłumaczyć jedynieprzyczynami natury czysto rynkowej. Zakończył bowiem okres czterech lat względnej stabilności cenowejoscylującej wokół 105 dol. za baryłkę. Spadek cen, który jest znacznie większy niż w przypadku ceninnych surowców i w porównaniu do „cen szczytowych” z 2011 roku, może sygnalizować koniec „supercykliczności”cen ropy naftowej. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest wnikliwa analiza czynników kształtującychcenę ropy naftowej w latach 2014–2015, a także próba odpowiedzi na następujące pytania:––Kto stoi za spadkiem cen najważniejszego na świecie nośnika energii na międzynarodowym rynku surowcowym?––Jakie działania na rynku światowym powodują spadek cen ropy?––Jakie konsekwencje rodzi spadek cen ropy na rynku światowym zarówno dla jej dostawców, jak i dlaodbiorców?
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Górski, Maciej. "Zastosowanie teorii log-periodyczności w prognozowaniu krachów giełdowych." Finanse i Prawo Finansowe 1, no. 1 (March 30, 2014): 6–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/2391-6478.1.1.02.
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W niniejszym artykule zaprezentowane zostanie zastosowanie najnowszej metody prognozy wystąpienia krachów giełdowych w oparciu o analizę fraktalną. Zawarte w nim wnioski mają na celu wykazanie, że trajektorie cen akcji zawierają pewne wzorce log-periodyczne, które potwierdzają występowanie słabej hipotezy rynku efektywnego. Owe zjawiska mogą również wynikać ze specyficznych zachowań inwestorów. Teoria log-periodyczności może być zastosowana do prognozowania zmian trendów. W pracy zostanie zbadana skuteczność predykcji na jej podstawie w odniesieniu do skrajnie różnych (pod względem rozwoju) rynków akcji.
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Tomczyk, Paweł, Daniel Mider, and Józef Grzegorczyk. "Inwigilacja elektroniczna jako metoda pozyskiwania informacji – ewaluacja i prognozy." Studia Politologiczne 2019, no. 54 (November 20, 2019): 258–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.33896/spolit.2019.54.10.
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The text focuses on one of the elements belonging to the surveillance society – surveillance with the use of electronic tools. The authors attempt to answer the following questions. What types of negative phenomena are produced and intensified by electronic surveillance technologies? How deep is the state of the „vulnerability” of modern societies, what are the possibilities of surveillance devices? Is it possible to practically oppose them, how and what are the limits? What is the genesis of these phenomena and what future scenarios can be sketched based on the anticipation of observed trends? A set of research questions defined in this way required both sociological and technical perspectives at the same time. The authors recognize the negative phenomena associated with electronic surveillance: escalation, professionalization, institutionalization and normalization.
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Mazur, Piotr. "Pomiar ryzyka rynkowego miarą wartości zagrożonej. Metoda kombinowania prognoz ." Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego. Studia i Prace, no. 2 (November 29, 2018): 183–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.33119/kkessip.2018.2.9.
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The article discusses the measurement of market risk by Value at Risk method. Value at Risk measure is an important element of risk measurement mainly for financial institutions but can also be used by other companies. The Value at Risk is presented together with its alternative Conditional Value at Risk. The main methods of VaR estimation were divided into nonparametric, parametric and semi-parametric methods. The next part of the article presents a method of combining forecasts, which can be used in the context of forecasting Value at Risk.
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Kaczmarczyk, Maciej, and Jacek Jachowski. "Unmanned Mine-Cleaning Underwater Vehicle Numerical Drag Prediction / Numeryczna Prognoza Charakterystyki Oporowej Bezzałogowego, Przeciwminowego Pojazdu Podwodnego." Journal of KONBiN 22, no. 1 (June 1, 2012): 125–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jok-2013-0028.
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Abstract At the beginning of the XXI century unmanned underwater vehicles such as ROV or AUV became common in use around the world. They are useful, practical and helpful in many underwater works. Moreover, in many cases they can be a good replacement for men. But to secure good man-machine cooperation or substitution high reliability is required as well as safety in everyday use - especially in the Navy. Therefore, beyond functionality, these two main factors are the most important in designing and then operating such vehicles. It can be achieved in many different ways, but one of the most sensitive and prone to damage elements is vehicle propulsion system. Commonly in use bare propellers are in danger of being damaged by many different things floating under the surface. To try to avoid such situation and find an alternative solution, there was an idea to design and build the ROV powered by a waterjet drive. This paper focuses on numerical drag prediction for underwater vehicle with two different propulsion systems. The pros and cons for each solution are also presented.
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Blecki, J., B. Nikutowski, P. Koperski, B. Popielawska, K. Kossacki, S. A. Romanov, and S. P. Savin. "ELF plasma waves in hot and cold plasma fluxes observed by Prognoz-8 in the magnetospheric tail." Annales Geophysicae 12, no. 10/11 (August 31, 1994): 1006–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00585-994-1006-3.
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Abstract. We present Prognoz-8 observations of low-frequency plasma waves (2-105 Hz) associated with plasma fluxes near the outer boundary of the plasma sheet. These plasma fluxes were different from the regular plasma sheet boundary layer and consisted of tailward flowing warm proton and cold oxygen beams accompanied by rather cold electrons (Te less than 100 eV). Observed plasma characteristics were used in the numerical solution of the dispersion relation for the ion-beam acoustic instability. Detailed analysis shows that this instability can be a source of observed emissions at frequencies up to 25 Hz.
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Garška, R., and I. Krūminiene. "SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF CURONIAN LAGOON DATA WITH GSTAT." Mathematical Modelling and Analysis 9, no. 1 (March 31, 2005): 39–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/13926292.2004.9637240.
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The typical goal of geostatistical analysis is to interpolate values of variable under consideration at unobserved locations using data on observed locations because it is not feasible to gather all data of the observations in the study area. The second goal is to know how they represent the study area on the basis of the sample points. Kriging is one of geostatistical methods for spatial interpolation. This method relies on the spatial correlation reflected in the available data and so represents a global view of all the data as well as the nearest neighbor influence. Before spatial prediction using kriging can be executed, the semivariogram has to be computed and modelled. The objective of our work is to create maps of the Curonian lagoon using kriging and cokriging methods. Our spatial data consist of observations on sounding and bed sediments of different Curonian lagoon locations. For computation and simulation of semivariograms, as well as for application kriging and cokriging methods and visualization of results on maps Gstat and PCRaster are used. Šio darbo pagrindinis tikslas‐Gstat bei PCRaster programu pagalba sukurti prognozuojamu duomenu ir ju dispersiju žemelapius. Žemelapiams sudaryti pritaikyti krigingo ir kokrigingo metodai. Krigingas yra vienas iš geostatistikos metodu, kuris atsižvelgdamas i erdvini dvieju kintamuju ryši ir kaimyniniu tašku reikšmes atlieka erdvine interpoliacija. Tuo tarpu kok‐rigingas atlieka pirminio kintamojo duomenu prognoze naudojant antriniu kintamuju duomenis. Pagrindinis geostatistines analizes tikslas yra interpoliuoti duomenis nežinomuose srities taškuose, nes dažniausiai atliekant geostatistinius tyrimus naudojami daliniai stebejimai, kurie apima tik visumos dali; arba nera žinoma, ar imties duomenys pakankamai gerai atspindi visa studijuojama sriti. Rezultatu analize parode, kad tikslesne prognoze gaunama taikant kokrigingo metoda.
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Arinicheva, O. V., T. V. Ziuba, and A. B. Malishevsky. "The effect of gender differences on the reliability of aptitude screening of aviation specialists." Dependability 20, no. 1 (March 30, 2020): 39–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2020-20-1-39-46.
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The Aim. This paper examines the problem of reliability of aptitude screening currently in place in commercial aviation in terms of its indiscriminate applicability to males and females. The task consisted in evaluating some professionally important qualities in males and females, who have successfully completed aptitude screening while being admitted to the aviation school, and identify the presence or absence of differences between the obtained results. For that purpose, a research was conducted that involved 60 third-year traffic controller students of the Saint Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation (35 males and 25 females).Methods. The psychodiagnostic method included the Prognoz-1 and Prognoz-2 stress tolerance evaluation forms developed in the S.M. Kirov Military Medical Academy, H.J. Eysenck intellectual development test, A. Buss and A. Durkee hostility assessment forms. The authors’ earlier findings were also used. Statistical processing was performed using correlation analysis and Pearson’s chi-squared test.Results. The analysis of psychodiagnostic findings has shown the absence of positive differences in the intellectual development of males and females in the observed group. In general, the intelligence of the study participants was sufficiently high (121.17 average IQ for males and 123.04 for females). The assessment of the stress tolerance of the surveyed group using two different variants of the Prognoz forms also has not identified any significant differences between males and females (stress tolerance of females is somewhat lower, than that of males, but the identified difference is obviously not crucial). However, both among males (1 person) and females (1 person) participants were identified, for whom the prediction per both diagnostic method was “unfavourable”. Positive differences between the examined males and females were identified in terms of tendency towards physical aggression (A. Buss and A. Durkee test).Conclusions. The psychodiagnostic method used as part of this work have not identified fundamental gender differences. An exception is the tendency towards physical aggression. In females this indicator is clearly lower, though there are girls who display high aggressiveness. Most experimental subjects demonstrated high stress tolerance and sufficiently high level of intellectual development. And while the examined group does not display clear differences in IQ (there are reasons to believe that the larger is the surveyed group the less significant are the positive differences between males and females in terms of intellectual development), however, the trend of female aviation specialists having overall higher IQ can be observed. The research must continue, extending the range of assessment methods, including alternative approaches that do not involve personality inventories, while simultaneously evaluating the extent of professionally important psychological qualities of aviation specialists, yet not with respect to gender, but in accordance with a candidate’s identified gender type.
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Brazytė, Vilma, Narimantas Evaldas Samalavičius, Renatas Tikuišis, and Povilas Miliauskas. "Autofluorescencinės bronchoskopijos reikšmė diagnozuojant ankstyvą plaučių vėžį." Lietuvos chirurgija 9, no. 3-4 (January 1, 2011): 0. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/lietchirur.2011.1.2082.
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Sigitas Zaremba1, Renatas Aškinis1, Arnoldas Krasauskas1, Saulius Cicėnas1,2 1Vilniaus universiteto Onkologijos institutas, Santariškių g. 1, LT-08660 Vilnius2Vilniaus universiteto Medicinos fakulteto Reabilitacijos, sporto medicinos ir slaugos institutas, Santariškių g. 1, LT-08660 Vilnius El. paštas: saulius.cicenas@vuoi.lt Įvadas / tikslasPlaučių vėžys yra viena dažniausių onkologinių ligų Lietuvoje, ypač vyrų. Tai solidinis navikas, turintis blogą prognozę daugiausia dėl greito progresavimo. Deja, dauguma atvejų nustatomi vėlyvos stadijos. Sergamumas plaučių vėžiu Lietuvoje yra 38,30 atvejo/100 000 gyventojų, 69,20/100 000 vyrų ir 11,4/100 000 moterų (2010 m). Plaučių vėžio gydymo prognozė gali būti palankesnė, jei nustatomas ir gydomas ankstyvos stadijos plaučių vėžys. Autofluorescencinis (AF) bronchoskopas padeda pamatyti normalioje šviesoje nematomus bronchų gleivinės pokyčius. Šis metodas pasižymi didesniu tyrimo jautrumu, bet mažesniu specifiškumu. Darbo tikslas – pasidalyti Vilniaus universiteto Onkologijos instituto patirtimi naudojant autofluorescencinį bronchoskopą, nustatyti tyrimo jautrumą ir specifiškumą diagnozuojant plaučių vėžį. Tyrimo medžiaga ir metodaiNuo 2009 m. rugsėjo 15 d. iki 2011 m. gegužės 25 d. atliktos autofluorescencinės bronchoskopijos 87 ligoniams. Duomenys apžvelgti retrospektyviai. RezultataiAutofluorescencinės bronchoskopijos metodu tirti 87 ligoniai, iš jų 59 sergantys plaučių vėžiu, 5 – stemplės vėžiu, 7 – kitų lokalizacijų navikine patologija ir 16 – nepiktybinėmis ligomis. Nustatėme baltos šviesos bronchoskopijos ir autofluorescencinės bronchoskopijos tyrimo jautrumą – atitinkamai 0,83 ir 0,87. Specifiškumas abiem atvejais buvo vienodas – 0,68. IšvadosAutofluorescencinė bronchoskopija yra saugus, naudingas diagnostikos metodas, kuris padeda vertinti naviko endobronchinį išplitimą planuojant operacijos apimtį. Mūsų nustatytas baltos šviesos bronchoskopijos ir autofluorescencinės šviesos bronchoskopijos tyrimų jautrumas buvo 0,83 ir 0,87, tai iš esmės atitinka kitų autorių duomenis. Autofluorescencinės šviesos bronchoskopijos tyrimas naudingesnis nustatant ankstyvų stadijų plaučių vėžį ar ikivėžines ligas. Reikšminiai žodžiai: autofluorescencinė bronchoskopija, plaučių vėžys. The value of autofluorescence bronchoscopy in the diagnosis of early lung cancer Sigitas Zaremba1, Renatas Aškinis1, Arnoldas Krasauskas1, Saulius Cicėnas1,2 1 Institute of Oncology, Vilnius University, Santariškių Str. 1, LT-08660 Vilnius, Lithuania2 Vilnius University, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Rehabilitation, Sport Medicine and Nursing, Santariškių Str. 1, LT-08660 Vilnius, Lithuania E-mail: saulius.cicenas@vuoi.lt Background / objectiveLung cancer is one of the most common oncologic diseases in Lithuania, especially among males. It is a solid tumour with a poor prognosis due to rapid progression. Unfortunately, most cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage. Lung cancer morbidity in Lithuania is 38.3 / 100000 inhabitants (69.2 / 100000 among males and 11.4 / 100000 among females) (2010). The prognosis of lung cancer treatment could be better if it were diagnosed at an early stage of the disease. Autofluorescence bronchoscopy can help to find bronchial mucosa lesions which were not seen with a white light bronchoscope. This method has a higher sensitivity but a lower specificity. The study presents – to share our experience in using autofluorescence bronchoscopy, to evaluate its sensitivity and specificity. MethodsFrom 15 September 2009 till 25 May 2011, there were 87 patients examined with autofluorescence bronchoscopy at the Vilnius University Institute of Oncology. The data were evaluated retrospectively. ResultsWe examined 87 patients by autofluorescence bronchoscopy: 59 with lung cacner, 5 with esophageal cancer, 7 with other malignant diseases, and 16 with benign diseases. White-light and autofluorescence bronchoscopy sensitivity was 0.83 and 0.87, respectively. The specificity was 0.68 in both methods. ConclusionsAutofluorescence bronchoscopy is a safe, useful diagnostic method allowing to evaluate endobronchial tumour spread when planning surgical resection. We found white-light and autofluorescence bronchoscopy sensitivity to be 0.83 and 0.87, respectively, which correlate with data of other authors. Autofluorescence bronchoscopy is preferable when diagnosing early-stage lung cancer or precancerous lesions. Keywords: autofluorescence bronchoscopy, lung cancer.
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Henryk, Tomaszek, Kaleta Ryszard, and Zieja Mariusz. "Introduction to Prediction of Operational Efficiency for a Selected Type of a Military Aircraft / Wprowadzenie Do Prognozy Skuteczności Działania Wybranego Typu Wojskowego Statku Powietrznego." Journal of KONBiN 21, no. 1 (December 1, 2012): 163–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jok-2013-0015.
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Abstract The study reveals the general outline for a method of determining the operational efficiency of a military aircraft with respect to destruction of targets held by a potential enemy. The method consists in determination of selected probability factors that define the efficiency of an aircraft’s operation on a potential battlefield. The paper is focused on finding a formula for the mathematical expectation for the number of enemy targets that can be eliminated, where the analytical relationships is determined by means of difference equation that is subsequently transformed into the Fokker-Planck partial differential equation. The solution of that equation represents the function of probable density for the number of destroyable targets. When the function is known it can be then used to determine the efficiency factor related to the optimum (most desired) number of enemy targets that are destroyed. For these probabilities the denominator values are equal to one or the optimum values. The efficiency factor, determined in such a way, seems to be useful for determination of the operational potential demonstrated by a military aircraft.
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Kaliski, Maciej, Marcin Krupa, and Andrzej Sikora. "Forecasts And/Or Scenarios, Including Quantification of the Distance, Timing and Costs / Prognozy I/Lub Ich Scenariusze, w Tym Kwantyfikacja Obszaru Prognozowania, Czasu I Kosztów." Archives of Mining Sciences 57, no. 2 (November 12, 2012): 425–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10267-012-0028-z.
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Abstract The paper addresses the problem of the forecasting and possible development of gas production from unconventional plays in Poland. As authors underline the potential of Polish shale gas is quite similar to US shales. Due to geological conditions, stage of development, size and location in more urban areas some experts compare Polish shale plays to Marcellus even. Document stated that from geographical and infrastructural points of view one can identify five different directions for export of natural gas surplus from Poland. It is important to notice that currently none of those routes physically exists - it means, that at present there are no infrastructure (or access to such infrastructure) for exporting of the Polish natural gas.
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Kirillov, S. G., Z. G. Ufatova, I. F. Khrushchev, and K. A. Bashirov. "Rock Movement in Tectonic Zones. Mining Activities and Rock Pressure Management in the Norilsk-Kharaelakh Fault Area." Mining Industry (Gornay Promishlennost), no. 6/2020 (December 29, 2020): 148–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2020-6-148-151.
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The article describes the rock mass state within the boundaries of the Skalistiy mining allotment. The ore mass within the mine field was found to preserve its rock-bump hazard and show high mobility in the impact zone of the Norilsk-Kharaelakh Fault and the associated high failure potential manifested as roof cavings. Based on the monitoring results along underground profile lines, it was concluded that the displacement process is currently at its initial stage. Moreover, the maximum subsidence in the central part of the profile line is about 3 times higher (up to 35 mm) than in other areas. This is caused by immediate proximity of this zone to the Norilsk-Kharaelakh Fault. Assessment of the bump hazard level of this rock mass with the help of the Prognoz-2 instrument that was performed by the rock-bump forecasting and control teams of the mine and the Norilskshakhtstroy company, showed the 'Not Hazardous' category in all cases. However, the progress of mining operations towards the Norilsk-Kharaelakh Fault may lead to deterioration in the condition of mine workings. This can be manifested through rock exfoliation from the walls of the advance workings of the safety layer in highly and extremely faulted rocks. In addition, permanent workings, which are one of the most critical structures of the production level and which will be used until the development of the deposit area adjacent to the Norilsk-Kharaelakh Fault is completed, will be maintained in increasingly difficult conditions. The article describes recommendations for mining operations in the fault area with account for the current mining and geomechanical situation and the potential for its change.
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Przybyliński, Michał, and Artur Gorzałczyński. "Zastosowanie tablic przepływów międzygałęziowych do modelowania procesów inflacyjnych." Gospodarka w Praktyce i Teorii 42, no. 1 (January 12, 2016). http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/1429-3730.42.04.
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Celem niniejszego opracowania jest wstępna próba oceny modelu cen input-output jako narzędzia do prognozowania inflacji. Zaproponowano procedurę prognozowania popularnego indeksu HICP. Została ona przetestowana na przykładzie gospodarki Danii w latach 2000–2007, co wynikało z dostępności materiału statystycznego. Procedura polega na rozwiązaniu modelu cen input-output dla otwartej gospodarki, a następnie zastosowaniu odpowiednich wag do obliczenia makroekonomicznego deflatora konsumpcji gospodarstw domowych. W eksperymencie założono, że zmienne egzogeniczne modelu cenowego zostały przewidziane ze 100% trafnością, a parametry modelu przyjęto na poziomie z poprzedniego roku. Błędy tak uzyskanych prognoz zostały zdekomponowane na trzy składowe. Proponowana procedura znacznie różni się od najczęściej stosowanych metod prognozowania inflacji, które opisują zachowanie się makroekonomicznych wskaźników cenowych (z częstotliwością większą niż roczną) przy użyciu modeli stochastycznych.
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Unat, Damla Serçe, Aysu Ayrancı, Gulru Polat, Gülistan Karadeniz, Fatma Demirci Üçsular, Ömer Selim Unat, Melih Büyükşirin, and Enver Yalnız. "Does Pulmonary Embolism Differ Between Genders in Terms of Clinical, Laboratory Findings, Prognosis and Mortality?" Journal of İzmir Chest Hospital, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5222/igh.2020.94830.
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INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a disease that mortal and hardly diagnosed. Since findings of PTE are nonspesific diagnosed can be so hard sometimes. Major risk factors are malignancy, immobility, previous surgery, thrombophilia, advanced age, and genetic factors. Studies on the relationship between gender and prognosis in PTE have very different results. In this study, we aimed to evaluate gender differences in terms of prognosis, intensive care admission, laboratory, and radiological tests. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 348 patients diagnosed with Acute PTE between January 2012 and December 2015. All of these patients were patients who applied to the emergency department of our center, which is a third step chest diseases hospital. We used the PTE guideline jointly designed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Respiratory Society (ERS) for prognosis classifications. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 62.7, while the male patients were younger. Women's sPESI scores and mean ages were observed higher than men. Although women had more bad prognostic factors, no significant difference was found between both genders in terms of early mortality. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Although there is a difference between mean age and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) scores; no difference in early mortality between men and women. Gender studies in PTE are an area that is open to new studies, since the studies conducted on this subject give quite different results and these results may affect the follow-up protocols.
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Maksimović, Siniša, Branislava Jakovljević Jakovljević, Zdenka Gojković, and Zlatko Maksimović. "Imunohistohemijski markeri: karcinoembrionalni antigen, p53, Ki 67 i proliferišući nuklearni antigen kao prognostički faktori karcinoma kolona i rektuma." БИОМЕДИЦИНСКА ИСТРАЖИВАЊА 9, no. 1 (July 24, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.7251/bii1801008m.
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Uvod. Učestalost karcinoma kolona i rektuma je u postupnom porastu posljednjihdvadeset godina. Da bi procjena ljekara o trajanju života pacijenatai/ili liječenju bila što preciznija, u onkologiji se koriste faktori prognoze ipredikcije. Oni se mogu klasifikovati na: kliničko-hirurške, patološko-histološkei imunohistohemijske. Cilj rada je bio utvrditi značaj imunohistohemijskihmarkera – karcinoembrionalnog antigena (CEA), p53, Ki-67 i proliferišućegnuklearnog antigena (PCNA) u predikciji preživljavanja pacijenata sakarcinomom kolona i rektuma.Metode. Od 1. januara 2010. godine do 1. decembra 2017. godine u Javnojzdravstvenoj ustanovi bolnici “Sveti Vračevi” u Bijeljini liječeno je 484pacijenata sa karcinomima kolona i rektuma kojima je u tkivu karcinomaimunohistohemijskom analizom ispitana ekspresija CEA, p53, Ki-67 i PCNA.Rezultati. Imunohistohemijska analiza tkiva primarnog kolorektalnog adenokarcinomaispitivanih pacijenata pokazala je jako pozitivnu ekspresijuCEA kod 301 (62%) pacijenta, p53 kod 329 (68%), PCNA kod 314 i Ki-67 kod275 (56,8%) pacijenata. Pacijenti sa jako pozitivnom ekspresijom CEA, p53i PCNA su imali statistički značajno lošije preživljavanje u odnosu na pacijentesa slabom ekspresijom ovih imunohistohemijskih markera. Nemastatistički značajne razlike u preživljavanju pacijenata sa jako pozitivnimimunohistohemijskim skorom Ki-67 u odnosu na pacijente sa slabo pozitivnimvrijednostima skora.Zaključak. Imunohistohemijska analiza se ne koristi u rutinskoj analizi karcinomakolona i rektuma, iako imunohistohemijski markeri predstavljajukorisne prediktore preživljavanja pacijenata.
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Taş, Nilay, Tülin Bayrak, Özgür Yağan, Ahmet Bayrak, and Tevfik Noyan. "Evaluation of predictive effect of PAF-AH on the prognosis of intensive care unit patients / Yoğun bakım hastalarında PAF-AH’ın prognoz üzerindeki prediktif etkisinin değerlendirilmesi." Turkish Journal of Biochemistry 41, no. 2 (January 1, 2016). http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/tjb-2016-0016.
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AbstractObjective: Determination of the factors associated with the intensive care unit (ICU) prognosis and mortality has important role in the clinical follow-up of the patients. Definition of novel biomarkers, beside older biomarkers available for evaluation of the outcome of these patients has been proposed. Platelet-activating factor acetylhydrolase (PAF-AH) is an enzyme that inactivates the platelet-activating factor. A reduction in the level of the PAF-AH has been demonstrated during systemic inflammation and multiple organ failure. This research aims to determine whether measurement of PAF-AH enzyme activity in ICUs can be used as a prognostic indicator like conventional biomarkers.Methods: Eighty five adult patients have been included. Following data have been recorded: preliminary C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate, albumin and PAF-AH values, APACHE II scores and discharge forms from ICU. Patients were divided in two groups with respect to APACHE II values: Group 1 (1-19) and Group 2 (≥20).Results: Observed mortality was 51.2%. In the APACHE II Group 2 patients, the values of CRP (p=0.001) and lactate (p=0.040) were significanty high, and the values of PAF-AH (p=0.008) and albumin (p=0.001) were significantly low. A statistically significant difference was found between PAF-AH values of exitus and alive patients (p=0.001). According to ROC analysis, the sensitivity and specificity of predicting mortality was 70.5% and 70.7% for CRP, 63.6% and 70.7% for lactate, 90.2% and 61.4% for albumin and 63.6% and 70% PAF-AH, respectively.Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that, in predicting the ICU mortality risk, sensitivity of the PAF-AH is similar to the sensitivity of the lactate, and specificity of the PAF-AH is better than that of the albumin. According to our results, PAF-AH can be included in the novel biomarkers.
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Hosang, Peter Rene, J. Tatuh, and Johannes E. X. Rogi. "ANALISIS DAMPAK PERUBAHAN IKLIM TERHADAP PRODUKSI BERAS PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA TAHUN 2013 – 2030." EUGENIA 18, no. 3 (December 18, 2012). http://dx.doi.org/10.35791/eug.18.3.2012.4101.
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ABSTRACT Climate change has caused in the decreasing of rice production worldwide which affects food security condition in North Sulawesi. Therefore, efforts need to be done to anticipate this issue. A combination of numerical and spatial models was chosen in this study. Paddy rice numerical simulation model described relationships between crops’ physical environmental conditions and physiological condition in the forms of mathematical equations. Model inputs included climatic components, such as: light, temperature, humidity, wind speed and rainfall; soil physical components including: soil capacity, permanent wilt point, soil evaporation parameter; soil chemical variables including: pH and total nitrogen; agronomical input including: crop varieties, seed growth rate, irigation and nitrogen fertilizer; initial conditions including: ground water concentration, mineral nitrogen (NH4 and NO3) from various soil layers. Model output can be determined based on the purpose of the study. This research concluded that (a) rainfall pattern change and temperature’s increase affected paddy rice production, (b) 141,677 ton of rice shortage will be occurred in 2030. Strategics to anticipate this condition should be formulated. It is recommended to conduct a further research on compiling climate change data in North Sulawesi. Also, it is crucial to produce best paddy rice varietas resistant of climate change through biotechnology. Keywords : climate change, produce ABSTRAK Perubahan iklim mengakibatkan terjadi gangguan dalam produksi tanaman padi yang mempengaruhi kondisi ketahanan pangan di Sulawesi Utara sehingga perlu adanya langkah-langkah mengantisipasinya. Metode penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan yang mengintegrasikan model numerik dan spasial. Model numerik simulasi tanaman padi menjelaskan hubungan antara kondisi fisik lingkungan dengan kondisi fisiologis tanaman dalam bentuk persamaan-persamaan matematis. Input model terdiri dari unsur-unsur cuaca berupa radiasi surya, suhu dan kelembaban udara, kecepatan angin dan curah hujan; sifat fisik tanah (kapasitas lapang, titik layu permanen dan parameter evaporasi tanah); sifat kimia tanah (pH, nitrogen total); input agronomis (varietas, laju penggunaan benih, irigasi, pemupukan nitrogen); serta kondisi awal berupa kadar air tanah dan nitrogen mineral (NH4 dan NO3) dari berbagai lapisan tanah. Sedangkan untuk output dapat disesuai dengan tujuannya. Penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa (a) perubahan pola curah hujan dan kenaikan suhu udara mempengaruhi produksi tanaman padi, (b) prognosa ketersediaan beras pada tahun 2030 mengalami defisit sebesar 141,677 ton, sehingga diperlukan langkah strategi untuk mengantisipasi. Eugenia Volume 18 No. 3 Desember 2012 Kata kunci : perubahan iklim, produksi
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Norkus, Zenonas. "GAMTOTYROS PAŽANGOS PROGNOZIŲ EPISTEMOLOGINĖS PRIELAIDOS." Problemos 69 (January 1, 2006). http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/problemos.2006..4060.
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Trys pagrindinės būsimos mokslo pažangos prognozės yra objektyvistinis finitizmas (pažanga baigsis, nes ribotą gamtą išsems mokslas), subjektyvistinis finitizmas (pažanga baigsis, nes žmogaus pažintinės galios yra ribotos) ir infinitizmas (gamtotyros pažanga niekada nesibaigs). Straipsnyje svarstomi Johno D. Barrowo, Johno Horgano, Nicholas Rescherio darbuose pateikti argumentai už ir prieš šiuos požiūrius. Pagrindinis dėmesys skiriamas atrankinės giminystės ryšiams tarp mokslo ateities prognozių ir pagrindinių epistemologinių srovių. Realistinė pažinimo, kaip tikrovės atvaizdo ar žemėlapio, samprata yra artimesnė finitizmui, palyginti su idealistine pažinimo, kaip problemų sprendimų proceso, turinčio „hermeneutinio rato“ pavidalą, samprata. Tuo pat metu idealizmu lengva pagrįsti reliatyvizmą, kuris neigia skirtingų mokslo raidos fazių bendramatiškumą (palyginamumą), kartu nepripažįsta ir mokslo pažangos, o realizmas ją logiškai implikuoja. Stipriausiu argumentu infinitizmo naudai laikomas pragmatinis: tikėjimas mokslo pažangos ribomis gali tapti save patvirtinančia prognoze, todėl infinitizmas yra mokslo „vidinė ideologija“ arba jį pamatuojantis metanaratyvas. Reikšminiai žodžiai: mokslo pažanga, mokslinio pažinimo ribos, idealizmas ir realizmas epistemologijoje.
EPISTEMOLOGICAL ASSUMPTIONS OF THE FORECASTS OF THE NATURAL SCIENTIFIC PROGRESSZenonas Norkus
Summary Three main forecasts of the future of scientific progress are (1) objectivistic limitism (the progress will end because the finite nature will be exhausted by science), (2) subjectivistic limitism (the progress will end because human cognitive capacities are limited), and (3) infinitism (the progress will go infinitely). The paper makes a contribution to the ongoing discussion (its participants include John D. Barrow, John Horgan, Nicholas Rescher, among others) by providing an analysis of the relations of elective affinity between forecasts of the future of science and main epistemological standpoints. The realist view of cognition as production of a picture or map of reality is considered as more closely related to finitism than the idealist view of cognition as the problem-solving process displaying the “hermeneutical circle” structure and involving the radical conceptual revolutions. There are, however, important differences among different versions of realism, with a very close relation between “scientific realism” and finitism. At the same time, the idealistic view is more prone to relativism that asserts the incommensurability among different phases of the scientific change and denies the very fact of scientific progress, while for realism scientific progress is a logical implication. The strongest argument for infinitism is pragmatic one: if scientists will believe that finitism is true, the progress can come to an end as a matter of self-fulfilling prediction. Therefore, infinitism is the best “internal ideology” of science or its metanarrative. The scope of the article is limited to the discussion of the problem of scientific progress in natural sciences.Keywords: scientific progress, limits of science, epistemological idealism and realism.