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1
Chu, Xiaoyuan. "Improving Estimation Accuracy using Better Similarity Distance in Analogy-based Software Cost Estimation." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för informationsteknologi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-246116.
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Software cost estimation nowadays plays a more and more important role in practical projects since modern software projects become more and more complex as well as diverse. To help estimate software development cost accurately, this research does a systematic analysis of the similarity distances in analogy-based software cost estimation and based on this, a new non-orthogonal space distance (NoSD) is proposed as a measure of the similarities between real software projects. Different from currently adopted measures like the Euclidean distance and so on, this non-orthogonal space distance not only considers the different features to have different importance for cost estimation, but also assumes project features to have a non-orthogonal dependent relationship which is considered independent to each other in Euclidean distance. Based on such assumptions, NoSD method describes the non-orthogonal angles between feature axes using feature redundancy and it represents the feature weights using feature relevance, where both redundancy and relevance are defined in terms of mutual information. It can better reveal the real dependency relationships between real life software projects based on this non-orthogonal space distance. Also experiments show that it brings a greatest of 13.1% decrease of MMRE and a 12.5% increase of PRED(0.25) on ISBSG R8 dataset, and 7.5% and 20.5% respectively on the Desharnais dataset. Furthermore, to make it better fit the complex data distribution of real life software projects data, this research leverages the particle swarm optimization algorithm for an optimization of the proposed non-orthogonal space distance and proposes a PSO optimized non-orthogonal space distance (PsoNoSD). It brings further improvement in the estimation accuracy. As shown in experiments, compared with the normally used Euclidean distance, PsoNoSD improves the estimation accuracy by 38.73% and 11.59% in terms of MMRE and PRED(0.25) on ISBSG R8 dataset. On the Desharnais dataset, the improvements are 23.38% and 24.94% respectively. In summary, the new methods proposed in this research, which are based on theoretical study as well as systematic experiments, have solved some problems of currently used techniques and they show a great ability of notably improving the software cost estimation accuracy.
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Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic Doe. "Rethinking construction cost overruns : an artificial neural network approach to construction cost estimation." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/10454.
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The main concern of a construction client is to procure a facility that is able to meet its functional requirements, of the required quality, and delivered within an acceptable budget and timeframe. The cost aspect of these key performance indicators usually ranks highest. In spite of the importance of cost estimation, it is undeniably neither simple nor straightforward because of the lack of information in the early stages of the project. Construction projects therefore have routinely overrun their estimates. Cost overrun has been attributed to a number of sources including technical error in design, managerial incompetence, risk and uncertainty, suspicions of foul play and even corruption. Furthermore, even though it is accepted that factors such as tendering method, location of project, procurement method or size of project have an effect on likely final cost of a project, it is difficult to establish their measured financial impact. Estimators thus have to rely largely on experience and intuition when preparing initial estimates, often neglecting most of these factors in the final cost build-up. The decision-to-build for most projects is therefore largely based on unrealistic estimates that would inevitably be exceeded. The main aim of this research is to re-examine the sources of cost overrun on construction projects and to develop final cost estimation models that could help in reaching more reliable final cost estimates at the tendering stage of the project. The research identified two predominant schools of thought on the sources of overruns – referred to here as the PsychoStrategists and Evolution Theorists. Another finding was that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which cost performance could be assessed, leading to a large disparity in the size of overruns reported. Another misunderstanding relates to the term “cost overrun” itself. The experimental part of the research, conducted in collaboration with two industry partners, used a combination of non-parametric bootstrapping and ensemble modelling with artificial neural networks to develop final project cost models based on about 1,600 water infrastructure projects. 92% of the validation predictions were within ±10% of the actual final cost of the project. The models will be particularly useful at the pre-contract stage as they will provide a benchmark for evaluating submitted tenders and also allow the quick generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project using what-if scenarios. The original contribution of the study is a fresh thinking of construction “cost overruns”, now proposed to be more appropriately known as “cost growth” based on a synthesises of the two schools of thought into a conceptual model. The second contribution is the development of novel models of construction cost estimation utilising artificial neural networks coupled with bootstrapping and ensemble modelling.
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Theodorakopoulos, Thomas F. "Integrated cost management system for delivering construction projects." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2017. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/27629.
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Cost management forms a major discipline in delivering construction projects of different sizes and complexity. Traditional cost management systems are mostly based on principles enacted several decades ago. A notable feature of these traditional cost management systems is that key information required for critical decisions is usually produced too late, and is often too aggregated and configured in a form that is not amenable to the requirements for current project management practice. Other problems associated with traditional cost systems relate to inadequacies in estimating and cost control processes and particularly the lack of integration of cost management across the whole project. The lack of integration means measurements provided by traditional cost systems do not sufficiently align with the goals and objectives set for the project. To address these inherent weaknesses in the current practice of cost management, a number of studies have argued for an integrated alternative that better responds to the information demand and decision making need to be developed. The thesis presents the development of a solution to such an integrated cost management system. The developed solution addresses the gaps of the traditional option by integrating the stages making up the whole life cycle of the project to enable professionals gain an appreciation of the ramifications of any early decisions made. The investigation conducted to support the development of the integrated cost management system and the applied model addresses user requirements and determination of the system boundary conditions for efficacious use by key decision makers. The new cost management system developed achieves a linkage of the planning and control stages into one, with a continuous stream of cost management information in both stages. The integration ensures that cost information is more relevant to the circumstances of the modern project manager.
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Han, Sedat. "Estimation Of Cost Overrun Risk In Interrnational Project By Using Fuzzy Set Theory." Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12606032/index.pdf.
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In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximise their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimise dependence on unfavorable domestic market conditions. In order to be awarded a contract in highly competitive global construction market, companies should excel in choosing the most attractive markets and prepare winning bids for the selected construction projects in those markets. While preparing bids, the major concern of companies is to offer an optimum price that will enable them to earn enough profits and win the contract at the same time, where profit making ability is strongly correlated with proper estimation of a risk premium that is added onto the estimated cost of the project. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of uncertainties associated with the project, market and country conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated by bidders realistically. In this study, fuzzy set theory is used to estimate cost overrun risk in international projects at the bidding stage. The objective is to propose a methodology which can be used by bidders to quantify cost overrun risk so that a realistic risk premium may be determined. A fuzzy risk rating approach is proposed to quantify cost overrun risk rating, which takes into account of risks characterised in international construction projects. For this purpose, risk sources have been identified and a risk model is put forward by using influence diagramming method. Based on this risk model, a fuzzy risk rating algorithm has been defined and software has been developed to conduct fuzzy risk rating calculations easily. After a decision-maker inserts the necessary inputs related with project and country risk factors, the output of the software is a rating that takes into account of all factors that may affect cost overrun risk in international construction projects. The reliability of the algorithm and developed software have been tested by an application on a real construction project. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets.
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Malmquist, Daniel. "A probabilistic pricing model for a company's projects." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för ingenjörsvetenskap, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-1099.
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The company’s pricing is often highly impacted by the estimation of competitors’ project costs, which also is the main scope in this degree project. The purpose is to develop a pricing model dealing with uncertainties, since this is a main issue in the current pricing process. A pre-study has been performed, followed by a model implementation. An analysis of the model was then made, before conclusions were drawn. Project cost estimation foremost, but also probability distribution functions and pricing as a general concept, were investigated in the mainly literary pre-study. Two suitable methods for project cost estimation were identified; Monte Carlo simulation and Hierarchy Probability Cost Analysis. These lead to a theoretical project cost estimation model. A model was implemented in Matlab. It treats project cost estimation, but no other pricing aspects. The model was developed based on the theoretical one to the extent possible. Project costs were broken down in sub costs which were included in a Monte Carlo simulation. Competitors’ project costs were estimated using this technique. To analyse the model’s accuracy was difficult. It differs from the theoretical one in terms of how probability distribution functions and correlations are estimated. These problems depend on projects with shifting characteristics and limited data and time. A solid framework has been created though. Improvement possibilities exist, e.g. more accurate estimates and a model handling other pricing aspects. The major threat is that nobody maintains the model. Anyway, estimates are not more than just estimates. The model should therefore be viewed as a helpful tool, not an answer.Företagets prissättning påverkas ofta till stor del av estimeringen av konkurrenters projektkostnader, vilket också är huvudområdet i detta examensarbete. Syftet är att utveckla en prissättningsmodell som hanterar osäkerheter, då detta är ett stort problem i rådande prissättningsprocess. En förstudie har utförts, följt av en modellimplementation. En analys av modellen gjordes sedan, innan slutsatser drogs. Projektkostnadsestimering främst, men även sannolikhetsfunktioner och prissättning som ett allmänt koncept, undersöktes i den i huvudsak litterära förstudien. Två lämpliga metoder för projektkostnadsestimering identifierades; Monte Carlo-simulering och Hierarchy Probability Cost Analysis. Dessa ledde till en teoretisk modell för projektkostnadsestimering. En modell implementerades i Matlab. Den behandlar projektkostnadsestimering, men inga andra prissättningsaspekter. Modellen utvecklades baserat på den teoretiska i möjlig utsträckning. Projektkostnader bröts ner i delkostnader som estimerades för konkurrenterna. Dessa ingick i en Monte Carlo-simulering. Konkurrenters projektkostnader estimerades med hjälp av denna teknik. Att analysera modellens noggrannhet var svårt. Den skiljer sig från den teoretiska beträffande hur sannolikhetsfunktioner och korrelationer estimeras. Dessa problem beror på projekt med skiftande karaktärsdrag samt begränsad data och tid. Ett solitt ramverk har dock skapats. Förbättringsmöjligheter finns, t.ex. noggrannare estimat och en modell som behandlar andra prissättningsaspekter. Det huvudsakliga hotet är att ingen underhåller modellen. Hur som helst är estimat inte mer än estimat. Modellen ska därför ses som ett hjälpverktyg, inte ett facit.
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Xu, Shen. "Automatic cost estimation of construction project based on building information modelling : a knowledge-based system approach." Thesis, University of Reading, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.699790.
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Balram, Sara. "Perceptions of Model-Based Systems Engineering As the Foundation for Cost Estimation and Its Implications to Earned Value Management." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/268476.
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Model-based systems engineering (MBSE) is an enterprising systems engineering methodology, which in replacing traditional, document-centric systems engineering methods, has the potential to reduce project costs, time, effort and risk. The potential benefits of applying MBSE on a project are widely discussed but are largely anecdotal. Throughout the System Engineering and Project Management industries, there is a strong desire to quantify these benefits, particularly within organizations that are looking to apply it to their complex, system of systems projects. The objective of this thesis was to quantify the benefits that model-based systems engineering presents, particularly in terms of project cost estimates. In order to quantify this qualitative data, statistical analysis was conducted on collected perceptions from industry experts and professionals. The results of this work led to identifying future research that should be completed in order to make MBSE an industry-wide standard for the development and estimation of projects.
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Pokorný, Martin. "Metody pro odhady náročnosti pracnosti při plánování projektů." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-15573.
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This work is focused on the problem of IS/ICT project cost estimation. Main aim of this work is to design a methodology, which can be use for project cost estimation in the initial part of the project stadium. Defining a basic terms of the project management and describing the most widely use cost estimation metods are the first step to archive main aim. This will be achived by studing literature and relevant articles of the project management. Next step is find an appropriate factors which help to set up the methodology. This factors can derive from a stakeholder's analysis. After definition these factors there si possible to set up a particular methodology. Universality (for a wide group of the projects), accuracy (to determine a particular method) and usability (in the initial part of the project stadium) are the most important criteria to review this methodology. Finally, it is necessary to evaluate the proposed methodology. This can be achieved by comparing the methods recommended in the methodology and the methods actually used for the real project cost estimation. The expected benefits of this work are the most widely use cost estimation metods arrangement and creation of the recommended metodology which can be used to cost estimation of future projects.
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Ceran, Erhan. "A C++ Distributed Database Select-project-join Queryprocessor On A Hpc Cluster." Master's thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614311/index.pdf.
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High performance computer clusters have become popular as they are more
scalable, affordable and reliable than their centralized counterparts. Database
management
systems
are particularly suitable for distributed
architectureshowever distributed DBMS are still not used widely because of the design difficulties. In this study, we aim to help overcome these difficulties by implementing a simulation testbed for a distributed query plan processor. This testbed works on our departmental HPC cluster machine and is able to perform select, project and join operations. A data generation module has also been implemented which preserves the foreign key and primary key constraints in the database schema. The testbed has capability to measure, simulate and estimate the response time of a given query execution plan using specified communication network parameters. Extensive experimental work is performed to show the correctness of the produced results. The estimated execution time costs are also compared with the actual run-times obtained from the testbed to verify the proposed estimation functions. Thus, we make sure that these estimation iv functions can be used in distributed database query optimization and distributed database design tools.
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Mizell, Carolyn. "QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT MANAGEMENT ISSUES USING PROCESS SIMULATION WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS ELEMENTS." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2006. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/4291.
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The complexity of software development projects makes estimation and management very difficult. There is a need for improved cost estimation methods and new models of lifecycle processes other than the common waterfall process. This work has developed a new simulation model of the spiral development lifecycle as well as an approach for using simulation for cost and schedule estimation. The goal is to provide a tool that can analyze the effects of a spiral development process as well as a tool that illustrates the difficulties management faces in forecasting budgets at the beginning of a project which may encourage more realistic approaches to budgetary planning. A new discrete event process model of the incremental spiral development lifecycle approach was developed in order to analyze the effects this development approach has on the estimation process as well as cost and schedule for a project. The input data for the key variables of size, productivity, and defect injection rates in the model was based on analysis of Software Engineering Laboratory data and provided for analysis of the effects of uncertainty in early project estimates. The benefits of combining a separate system dynamics model with a discrete event process models was demonstrated as was the effects of turnover on the cost and schedule for a project. This work includes a major case study of a cancelled NASA software development project that experienced cost and schedule problems throughout its history. Analysis was performed using stochastic simulation with derived probability distributions for key software development factors. A system dynamics model of human resource issues was also combined with the process model to more thoroughly analyze the effects of turnover on a project. This research has demonstrated the benefits of using a simulation model when estimating to allow for more realistic budget and schedule determination including an interval estimate to help focus on the uncertainty of early estimates.Ph.D.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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Lipkin, Ilya. "Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model." University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1321593577.
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Dalmazo, Bruno Lopes. "Uma abordagem Bayesiana para previsão de custos de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de TI." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/39199.
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Existe uma noção intuitiva de que os custos associados a ações de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de Tecnologia da Informação (TI), muitas vezes considerados já muito elevados e em crescimento, possuem forte vinculação com esforços empreendidos nas fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. Apesar da importância de caracterizar e compreender a sistemática dessa relação, pouco tem sido feito neste domínio, principalmente devido à falta de mecanismos adequados tanto para o compartilhamento de informações entre as fases de um projeto de TI, quanto para aprender com experiências passadas. Para lidar com essa problemática, propõe-se nesta dissertação uma abordagem para estimar dinamicamente os custos de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de TI à luz de informações provenientes das fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. As estimativas de custos são calculadas a partir da integração de informações produzidas ao longo do ciclo de vida de projetos (passados). O núcleo da solução presente neste trabalho conta com um modelo Bayesiano para realizar previsão de custos de suporte, apoiado em um modelo de informação usado para persistir informações históricas. Para provar conceito e viabilidade técnica da solução proposta considerou-se, como estudo de caso, a predição de custos associados com projetos de implantação de infraestrutura de redes sem fio. Durante a avaliação é demonstrada a eficácia e eficiência do modelo, bem como discutido suas potencialidades e limitações para auxiliar no entendimento do compromisso entre custos de desenvolvimento/ implantação, teste e suporte. A avaliação conduzida fez uso de dados reais/sintéticos produzidos a partir de projetos do ISBSG e apresenta resultados próximos dos encontrados em cenários reais. Nossa abordagem obteve cerca de 80% de acerto na estimativa dos custos de suporte para os cenários avaliados.There is an intuitive notion that the costs associated with IT management project support actions, often deemed extremely high and increasing, are directly related to the effort spent during their development/deployment and test phases. Despite the importance of systematically characterizing and understanding this relationship, little has been done in this realm mainly due to the lack of proper mechanisms for both sharing information between IT project phases and learning from past experientes. To tackle this issue, in this dissertation we proposed an approach for dynamically predicting IT management project support costs taking into account information gathered from the development/deployment and test phases. Support cost estimates are computed by integrating existing information from the lifecycle of (past) projects. The core of the solution in this work relies on a Bayesian model to perform support cost predictions, supported by an information model employed to persist historical information gathered from past projects. To prove the concept and technical feasibility of our solution we consider as a case study the prediction of costs (either development/test/support) associated with projects for the deployment of wireless network infrastructures. During the evaluation is demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of the model and discussed its potential and limitations in order to help understanding the trade-offs between development/deployment, test, and support costs. Our solution has been evaluated based on real/synthetics data gathered from the ISBSG dataset, and presents results similar to those found in real-life scenarios. Our solution has provided correct estimates for around 80% of the support costs for the scenarios evaluated.
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Asif, Mohammad. "Simple generic models for cost-significant estimating of construction project costs." Thesis, University of Dundee, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.330103.
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Odendaal, M. M. "The estimation and management of cost over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2009. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-10262009-134111.
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Phaobunjong, Kan. "Parametric cost estimating model for conceptual cost estimating of building construction projects." Thesis, Full text (PDF) from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3086790.
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Oncul, Mustafa. "Cost Estimation Of Housing Projects By Functional Areas." Master's thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12607083/index.pdf.
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Good conceptual cost estimates is one of the most important factors affecting the project success. Investment decisions taken and budget preparations are performed from the results of the conceptual estimates. Also, the most difficult cost estimation is the early estimates where there is very limited information.
This thesis provides a model for the cost estimation of the housing projects at the conceptual stage, considering not only the total area of the construction, but also considering fractional areas, as kitchen area, bathroom area, living room area and etc. Moreover, model outputs a range of costs considering quality of the construction instead of a point estimate which allows investors to see the possible costs of the project by their choice of luxury.
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Sandhaus, G. "Neural networks for cost estimating in project management." Thesis, Swansea University, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.638763.
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The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate whether neural networks can be used for cost estimating in project management and if so, whether they lead to improved estimates. Chapter one gives a short introduction into the field of artificial intelligence and describes the structure and learning algorithm of a selection of some typical neural networks. Chapter two reviews literature regarding cost estimating in project management and differentiates between different methods of cost estimates. Chapter three describes the statistical problem of parametric cost estimates and addresses these problems with the help of neural networks. Chapter four and Chapter five give examples of how neural networks can be used to represent mathematical equations which are currently used for cost estimating in project management. Chapter six applies neural networks on real world data and compares its performance with one of the leading parametric cost estimating software tools. Chapter seven includes the discussion and conclusions of the findings throughout the thesis. The limitation and restriction of the implementation of neural networks are examined and the potentials for further research are suggested.
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Stankevičius, Andrius. "Viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės projektų ekonominės naudos analizė." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2012. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2012~D_20120703_160541-82371.
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Viešojo ir privataus sektorių bendradarbiavimas yra kontraversiškas dalykas. Iš vienos pusės, į rinką pritraukiama naujovių, tobulinamas viešojo sektoriaus darbas, skatinamas verslo ir regionų konkurencingumas, tačiau tokia partnerystė gali turėti ir neigiamų pasekmių, tokių kaip politiniai ir demokratiniai kaštai, iškreipta viešojo administravimo reikšmė visuomenėje ir neracionalūs ar neskaidrūs sprendimai. Todėl svarbu, kad visi partnerystės dalyviai teisingai suprastų projektų tikslus, norus, ar kiekvienas partneris pajėgus investuoti į partnerystę tiek materialinius, tiek ir nematerialinius resursus bei atliktų projektų vertinimą.
Magistro baigiamojo darbo tikslas - išanalizuoti viešojo ir privataus sektoriaus partnerystės raidą, privalumus bei trūkumus ir įvertinti partnerystės projekto naudą visoms viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės pusėms.
Teorinėje dalyje išanalizuota mokslinė literatūra ir įvertinta viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės raida, privalumai, trūkumai, efektyvumas ir nauda visoms pusėms: viešajam sektoriui, privačiam sektoriui ir visuomenei bei pateikti pasiūlymai kaip spręsti iškilusias problemas. Teoriniu aspektu analizuojama viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės samprata, akcentuojant tokios formos bendradarbiavimo atsiradimo priežastis, išskiriami privalumai ir trūkumai, galimybės ir grėsmės. Pateikiami partnerystės projektų pavyzdžiai, apibendrinti statistiniai duomenis apie projektų raidą, pokyčius ir tendencijas bei pateikiamos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]The collaboration between public and private sectors is a controversial object. On one hand, there are innovations that are being attracted to the market, and the work process in the public sector is improved, as well as the competitive ability between the business and regions is motivated, on the other hand such partnership may have negative results like political and democratic costs, distorted authority of the public administration in the society, and unreasonable or ambiguous decisions. Therefore, it is essential, that not only all the parties involved in the partnership would take the aims and intentions of the projects properly, but also each partner is able to invest into the partnership tangible and intangible resources, and could make the estimation of the projects. The aim of the Master's thesis is to analyze the development, as well as the pros and cons of the public - private sectors, and to estimate the advantage of the partnership projects in regard to all the parties of private and public sectors. The theoretical part of final thesis deals with the analyzed scientific literature and the estimated development, pros and cons, efficiency of the partnership with respect of the public and private sectors, as well as the advantage to all the parties including public - private sectors and the society, additionally the potential suggestions and the occurrence of possible problems is given. The conception of public and private sectors is analyzed from the theoretical... [to full text]
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Wilkin, Kelly R. "Cost estimation performances of Nevada highway infrastructure construction projects." abstract and full text PDF (free order & download UNR users only), 2006. http://0-gateway.proquest.com.innopac.library.unr.edu/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1436025.
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Afetornu, Charles. "The influence of estimator attitude on project cost reliability." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2011. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/8536.
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The reliability of project estimates is dependent on a number of factors that can be classed as exogenous or endogenous to the estimator. The exogenous factors comprise information, environment, technology, methods and processes, which are external to the estimator. The endogenous factors reflect personal characteristics associated with the estimator and consist of aspects such as judgement, preferences and personality. Construction's effort to improve the estimating function has addressed both the practice of, and process of delivering the estimate. Much of the effort, however, has been addressed at aspects of estimating that can be considered classed under exogenous factors. This includes the use of technology to improve both the accuracy of computation and the speed for generating the estimate. Notwithstanding progressive improvement achieved in estimating from addressing such exogenous factors, most project-oriented industries still suffer from unreliable estimates. Although the problem of unreliable estimates is a worldwide phenomenon, it reflects more starkly in many developing economies, where its effect is much more striking. Understanding the root causes of the persistence of unreliable estimates would therefore, call for a focus on factors other than the exogenous ones that most improvement and development efforts have focus on. The study, which formed the basis of this thesis adopts the position that any improvements in reliability, beyond what the exogenous-based developments have achieved so far, lies in the contribution that estimators can make by addressing their endogenous factors. For that position to be valid, the study showed that the personality characteristics of various estimators produce different levels of reliability. Three endogenous factors, experience, qualification, and personality archetype (or trait) were employed to explore the relationships with estimating reliability. A quantitative research approach was adopted for the investigation, as the nature of evidence required was primarily objective, to substantiate the argument that different levels of particular endogenous factors produce different reliabilities in estimating. Data for the study was obtained from Ghana. Two categories of sample data were collected through stratification of the population, followed by systematic sampling methods. The two samples were a control group, comprising estimators with more than or equal to ten years experience; and an observed (or study group), made up of estimators with less than ten years experience. An instrument based on a self-reporting protocol was developed and utilized in the elicitation of data from both groups.
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Ontepeli, Mehmet Bahadir. "Conceptual Cost Estimating Of Urban Railway System Projects." Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12606177/index.pdf.
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Conceptual cost estimates play a crucial role on initial project decisions although scope is not finalized and very limited design information is available during early project stages. At these stages, cost estimates are needed by the owner, contractor, designer or the lending organization for several purposes includingdetermination of feasibility of a project, financial evaluation of a number of alternative projects or establishment of an initial budget. Conceptual cost estimates are not expected to be precise, since project scope is not finalized and very limited design information is available during the pre-design stages of a project. However
a quick, inexpensive and reasonably accurate estimate is needed based on the available information. In this study, conceptual cost estimating models will be developed for urban railway systems using data of projects from Turkey. The accuracy of the models and advantages of the study will be discussed.
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Ozturk, Erhan. "Cost Estimation Of Trackworks Of Light Rail And Metro Projects." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12610332/index.pdf.
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The main objective of this work is to develop models using multivariable regression and artificial neural network approaches for cost estimation of the construction costs of trackworks of light rail transit and metro projects at the early stages of the construction process in Turkey. These two approaches were applied to a data set of 16 projects by using seventeen parameters available at the early design phase.
According to the results of each method, regression analysis estimated the cost of testing samples with an error of 2.32%. On the other hand, artificial neural network estimated the cost with 5.76% error, which is slightly higher than the regression error. As a result, two successful cost estimation models have been developed within the scope of this study. These models can be beneficial while taking the decision in the tender phase of projects that includes trackworks.
23
Gyasi, Evans Akwasi. "A Bayesian approach to cost estimation for offshore deepwater drilling projects." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/97927/.
Full textAbstract:
The global offshore oil and gas industry is constantly challenged with complex operational activities, increasing uncertainties, strict regulations and delicate health, safety and environmental issues. That has made offshore deepwater drilling operation the most time sensitive activity in the upstream oil and gas industry with high probabilities of cost and time overrun. Unfortunately, the current cost estimation models are not robust enough to deal with the multi-variables associated with cost overrun in the offshore deepwater drilling industry in the Sub-Sahara Africa. This study therefore developed a mathematical model that can give accurate estimations with limited data, precisely capture risk elements and factor probability results of all the possible cost variables in the offshore deep-water drilling operations. The study combined Bayesian approach with Activity-based costing (ABC) model to address the limitations of most existing models using primary data collected and secondary data extrapolated from past literatures, published official drilling data and companies’ financial and operational reports. The integrated model showed promising results when tested against three offshore fields’ data across three different countries (Erha-Nigeria, Jubilee-Ghana and Luanda-Angola). Findings from the analysis of the three fields showed cost estimates to be 10% more accurate than the estimates from existing cost estimation models in Sub-Sahara Africa. Further analysis also demonstrated the ability of the model to reduce the regional cost overrun from about 40% to 20%, thereby underlining the efficacy of the model in estimating offshore drilling cost. The strengths, weaknesses as well as the implications of using the model were also discussed. Additionally, the study developed an improved elicitation framework and guidelines to help facilitate cost estimation in the offshore deep-water drilling operations based on the Bayesian approach. The developed elicitation process was used to collect the primary data for this work and generated probabilistic response on the known unknowns and unknown unknowns’ variables in the oil and gas industry Finally, the research analysed and produced findings on cost reduction techniques for the offshore drilling industry.
24
Welde, Morten. "Essays on Cost Estimations and their Uncertainties in Transportation Projects." Doctoral thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for bygg, anlegg og transport, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-14648.
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Samir, Ayed Amr. "Parametric cost estimating of highway projects using neural networks." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ34223.pdf.
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Jrade, Ahmad. "A conceptual cost estimating computer system for building projects." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0018/MQ47815.pdf.
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Donnell, Kelly Elaine. "Identification of potential strategies, methods, and tools for improving cost estimating practices for highway projects." Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2317.
Full textAbstract:
Project cost escalation is a major problem for State Highway Agencies (SHA).
This problem is evident in cost estimating procedures that may not promote consistency
and accuracy of costs over the project development process. The research proposes that
a relationship exists between applying good estimating practices and minimizing cost
escalation from the initial planning estimate to the engineer??s estimate at final design.
The objective of this research is to develop a preliminary list of strategies, methods, and
tools for project cost estimation practices aimed at achieving greater consistency and
accuracy between the project development phases.
A literature review was conducted that assisted in identifying factors that lead to
the cost escalation of projects. The information from the literature was used to discover
the core estimating assumptions that are the root causes behind cost escalation and lack
of project estimate consistency and accuracy. After the cost escalation factors were
determined, interviews with SHAs were conducted that lead to identifying unique and/or
innovative approaches that will aid the SHAs in overcoming the cost escalation factors.
The main methodology used to develop a potential list of strategies, methods,
and tools was first focused on linking strategies to causes of cost escalation. Global
strategies were identified by means of this approach. Methods and tools that would
likely be effective in implementing the strategies are therefore directed at mitigating root
causes of estimate problems in a focused approach. The strategies, methods, and tools
are aligned with the project development phase where they would be implemented.
Thus, a preliminary list of strategies, methods, and tools is provided in this study.
28
Celenligil, Onur. "Analogical Reasoning For Risk Assessment And Cost Overrun Estimation In Construction Projects." Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612229/index.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Project cost increase is the main concern in international construction projects which usually results in disputes and conflicts among the project participants. The aim of this thesis is to construct a database that represents risk event history regarding international construction projects and construct a cost overrun prediction model. It is hypothesized that magnitudes of project related, company related and country related risk factors can be predicted by assessing the level of vulnerability by analogical reasoning with previous projects. The vulnerability and risk factors can further be used to predict cost overrun in the bid preparation stage of international construction projects. Thus, prediction models that link vulnerability with risk factors and cost are constructed by using a dataset of 166 international construction projects, which consists of 66 real and 100 hypothetical cases. Case-based reasoning (CBR) technique is used to construct the prediction models. After testing the performance of various CBR models using different weight generation and retrieval methods, error rate of +/- 7.15 % cost increase is achieved. The utilization of CBR models in the prediction of potential risk sources and cost overrun is demonstrated by a real case study. Finally, the benefits and pitfalls of using analogical reasoning for risk and cost overrun assessment of construction projects are discussed.
29
Arestegui, Carvajal Miguel Angel. "Cost Estimation for Underwater Tunnel Projects based on Uncertainty and Risk Analysis." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-26996.
Full textAbstract:
Cost estimation is a complex and critical process, particularly during pre-investment phases of large undersea tunnel projects, where major decisions must be made under a high level of uncertainty. The high level of uncertainty regarding geological and construction performance aspects, as well as the occurrence of undesirable risk events may certainly affect the actual execution cost, making cost estimation a difficult task to be performed during the early phases.This work presents a cost estimation model based on uncertainty and risk analysis that may help project organisations to obtain more realistic cost estimates. The specific model was designed for Drill and Blast excavation method, and it is focused on the cost estimation of the tunnelling activities. Through standard project management tools, this model estimates the total tunnelling cost (CTT) as a random function of the normal (CNT) and extraordinary tunnelling cost (CET). The model assumes that normal cost is controlled by geological and construction aspects, while the extraordinary tunnelling cost may be derived for the occurrence of undesirable events. Both are modelled as random processes and integrated in @Risk, which allows performing Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) and obtain the final cost distributions (PDF).The model was tested in a specific case study, and the results demonstrate the suitability of the model for determine the total tunnelling cost. Even though the model has demonstrated to be valid, the model robustness and accuracy may be improved by more advanced research in areas related to rock support and water inflow control. Finally, the results have confirmed that the integration of stochastic and driver-based and risk management tools may provide a powerful tool to improve the pre investment decision process of undersea tunnel projects
30
Saket, Munther Musa. "Cost-significance applied to estimating and control of construction projects." Thesis, University of Dundee, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.276578.
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Membah, Joseph F. J. "Parametric Cost Estimating and Risk Analysis of Transportation Tunneling Projects." Diss., North Dakota State University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10365/25908.
Full textAbstract:
Due to the increased scrutiny of construction costs for infrastructure projects by the
public and legislators, it is becoming increasing important for project developers to prepare
accurate conceptual cost estimates for transportation tunnel projects at the feasibility stage to aid
in making investment decisions. Past studies have emphasized that tunnel-project costs have
been significantly underestimated, and cost uncertainties and risks have been identified as the
cause of cost under or overestimation. A broad understanding of the factors that contribute to
cost underestimation is important as it enables researchers and estimators to develop appropriate
functions, evaluate, and implement them to produce realistic cost estimates.
This study was aimed at developing parametric cost estimation functions and quantifying
their risks for transportation tunnel projects. A comprehensive background study of more than 39
published articles on transportation tunnel infrastructure projects was conducted through a
systematic literature review and 40 key estimating parameters that may impact project costs and
the associated project logistics were identified. Data from completed tunnel projects were
collected and used to develop the parametric cost equations. Exploratory analyses were first
performed to discover the correlations among tunnel costs and tunnel cost parameters/drivers.
The purpose of this effort was to assess if a relationship existed between tunnel variables and
tunnel project cost estimates. Parametric cost estimation functions were then developed for
different tunnel applications. There has been no comprehensive study performed to date to
develop parametric cost estimation functions that incorporated risk and uncertainty for
transportation tunnel projects. Two representative sample case studies were performed and
Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the associated risks. The results from the case
studies illustrate the need to use appropriate techniques to simulate tunnel costs and quantify the risks associated with the estimates. The findings of the study provide a methodology to estimate
the costs of transportation tunnels and quantify the uncertainties and risks associated with the
costs. The methodology developed in this research could help reduce the incidence of project
cost underestimation and alleviate some of the controversies surrounding cost overruns in
transportation tunnel projects.
32
Lucas, Matthew Allen. "Development of a right-of-way cost estimation and cost estimate management process framework for highway projects." [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2476.
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Al-Dosary, Bashar. "Integrating 3D-CAD and Cost Estimating at the Conceptual Design Stage of Bridge Project." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/32570.
Full textAbstract:
Bridge Information Modeling (BrIM), as a concept, has been introduced to enhance the procedures of the whole phases of a bridge life-cycle starting with concept and design, through construction and operation, and ending with maintenance and rehabilitation. Integrating BrIM and design tools will help improve the methods used in designing and constructing bridge projects at early stages taking into considerations their cost and time constraints. The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated model that helps owners, designers and construction managers visualize bridge projects in a 3D mode and accordingly automate the process of generating preliminary cost estimates during the conceptual design stage. To achieve the above mentioned objective, a proposed methodology will be applied where all the aspects needed to develop an efficiently integrated model are realized. Thus, this research describes the proposed methodology that incorporates three modules, which are the core of the integrated model. These modules are: a knowledge based system module, which is used to generate conceptual dimensions and parameters depending on algorithmic and heuristic knowledge gathered from codes, guidelines and design experts; a conceptual cost estimation module, which is used to generate conceptual cost estimate based on the results of the first module; and a 3DCAD module, which is integrated with the previous modules where users will visualize the proposed bridge in 3D based on the results of the knowledge based module. The successful development of the model would help owners and investors identify the cost and visualize the proposed projects at the early stages of the project life, so they have an idea of the budget required and the aesthetics of the proposed projects. The integrated model is validated through an actual case project to test its workability and output.
34
Sturm, Joseph P. "Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects." Connect to this title online, 2007. http://etd.lib.clemson.edu/documents/1202501316/.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.S.) -- Clemson University, 2007.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains ix, 57 p. ; also includes graphics (chiefly col.). Contains 2 additional supplemental files.
35
Isaksson, Therese. "Model for estimation of time and cost based on risk evaluation applied on tunnel projects." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Civil and Architectural Engineering, 2002. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3360.
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Mair, Andrew John. "Estimating and control of construction projects using cost significant work packages." Thesis, University of Dundee, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.335780.
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Chen, Lein-Lein. "Study of the effectiveness of cost-estimation models and complexity metrics on small projects." FIU Digital Commons, 1986. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2134.
Full textAbstract:
Software cost overruns and time delay are common occurrences in the software development process. To reduce the occurrences of these problems, software cost estimation models and software complexity metrics measurements are two popular approaches used by the industry.
Most of the related studies are conducted for large scale software projects. In this thesis, we have investigated the effectiveness of three popular cost estimation models and program complexity metrics in so far as their applicability to small scale projects is concerned.
Experiments conducted on the programs collected from FIU and NCR corporation indicate that none of the cost estimation models precisely estimates the actual development effort. However, the regression results indicate that the actual development effort is some function of the model variables. In addition, it also showed that the complexity metrics are useful measurements in predicting the actual development effort. Additional results related to lines of code metric are also discussed.
38
Koch, Stefan. "Effort Modeling and Programmer Participation in Open Source Software Projects." Department für Informationsverarbeitung und Prozessmanagement, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2005. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1494/1/document.pdf.
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This paper analyses and develops models for programmer participation and effort estimation in open source software projects. This has not yet been a centre of research, although any results would be of high importance for assessing the efficiency of this model and for various decision-makers. In this paper, a case study is used for hypotheses generation regarding manpower function and effort modeling, then a large data set retrieved from a project repository is used to test these hypotheses. The main results are that Norden-Rayleigh-based approaches need to be complemented to account for the addition of new features during the lifecycle to be usable in this context, and that programmer-participation based effort models show significantly less effort than those based on output metrics like lines-of-code. (author's abstract)Series: Working Papers on Information Systems, Information Business and Operations
39
Fung, Po-hei Matthew, and 馮寶熙. "Cost-significance applied to estimating of civil engineering projects in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1992. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31210284.
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Fung, Po-hei Matthew. "Cost-significance applied to estimating of civil engineering projects in Hong Kong /." [Hong Kong] : University of Hong Kong, 1992. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13207283.
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Njovu, Peter. "Estimating of duration, cost and schedule in project management : a review of company practice and documentation to establish how much historical data helps to enhance the estimating process." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/53415.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study is focussed on the all-important issue of estimation and forecasting in project management. Most project managers relate the kind of difficulties they have to go through in dealing with superiors that come up with a targeted deadline for a project with a given budget but with little or no regard to due process of arriving at both duration and cost. Many projects are doomed to overrun both schedule and cost from the word go because either the project manager is not equipped to give accurate estimates or is too timid to upset the boss by saying they do not believe the project would be completed within the said duration and the given cost without compromising quality. It is well said in literature that the three pillars of any project completion are time, cost and performance. Two of the three can be predetermined and the third will normally be dependent on those two. Where there is generous time and a large budget, chances are that a good quality well considered and executed project will result. The opposite is also true. This study investigates literature on the subject and also seeks to look at the trends in estimating in practice, by way of questionnaire and physical inspections. The questions that it seeks to answer are: a) Are project managers in most companies formally qualified? b) What is their disposition to using computerised/statistical methods in estimating? c) Does the level of education affect the disposition of project managers to using computerised/statistical methods of estimation? And finally, d) What methods are project managers using to estimate duration, cost and schedule? The results of this survey show that most projects managers do not have formal training in project management. At best they have attended short courses in project management. The survey also shows that even the formally educated project managers do not think much of strictly scientific (computerised/statistical) methods of project estimation. They rather feel that getting input from experienced functional people on the separate parts of the project tends to produce more accurate estimates. There is a leaning therefore towards using past experience on similar projects to generate norms and expert advice from the relevant functions on the expected costs and durations of accomplishing the parts of the project on which they have experience. All the project managers that responded to the survey said they had formal documentation for their projects and that they kept copies of the documentation in a central place that was easily accessible. Physical checks of this fact revealed that 29% of the interviewees did not have central or well-kept databases of previous projects' information.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie plaas klem op die belangrike kwessie van skatting en voorspelling in projekbestuur. Die meeste projekbestuurders ondervind die tipiese probleem waar senior persone projekteikendatums en -begrotings neerlê, sonder behoorlike oorweging van die faktore wat tyd en koste beïnvloed. Baie projekte is dus, van die staanspoor, bestem om beide koste en tyd te oorskry. Die projekbestuurder is dalk nie behoorlik toegerus om akkurate skattings te maak nie, of andersinds ontbreek die moed om die senior persoon daarop te wys dat tydskaal- en koste-teikens slegs teen 'n verlaging in kwaliteitstandaarde bereik kan word. Die literatuur gee wye erkenning aan wat die die drie pilare van projekvoltooing is: tyd, koste, en prestasie. Twee hiervan kan vooraf vasgepen word, terwyl die oorblywende een dan 'n funksie van die ander twee word. Indien daar ruim tyd en fondse beskikbaar is, is daar 'n beter kans om goeie kwaliteit en 'n gunstige projekuitkoms te verseker. Die teenoorgestelde is ook waar. Hierdie studie ondersoek die literatuur in die vakgebied, en gee bepaalde aandag aan die tendense in vooruitskattingspraktyke deur van 'n vraeboog en fisiese ondersoeke gebruik te maak. Die vrae wat deur hierdie navorsing gestel word, is die volgende: a) Is projekbestuurders, in die meeste organisasies, formeelopgelei? b) Wat is hulle houding teenoor die gebruik van rekenaargebaseerde statistiese metodes vir vooruitskatting? c) Beïnvloed die vlak van opleiding hierdie houding teenoor die gebruik rekenaargebaseerde statistiese metodes? d) Watter metodes gebruik projekbestuurders om kostes, tyd, en skedules te bepaal? Die ondersoek bevind dat die meerderheid projekbestuurders nie formele opleiding in projekbestuur het nie. Ten beste het hulle slegs kort kursusse in projekbestuur bygewoon. Die studie bevind ook verder dat selfs formeel opgeleide projekbestuurders nie ten gunste van streng wetenskaplike (rekenaargebaseerde statistiese) skattingstegnieke is nie. Hulle voel dat die insette van ervare funksionele personeel wat op verskillende elemente van die projek werk, meer akkuraat is. Daar is dus 'n neiging om eerder vorige ondervinding op soortgelyke projekte te gebruik om norme vas te stel, en om kundige spesialiste se raad te gebruik by die skatting van koste en tydsduur met betrekking tot die gedeeltes van die projek waarin hulle spesialiseer. AI die projekbestuurders wat aan die vraeboog-opname deelgeneem het, het bevestig dat hulle formele dokumentasie rakende hulle projekte byhou, en dat kopieë op In toeganklike plek sentraal beskikbaar gehou word. Die fisiese ondersoek bevind dat 29% van die persone waarmee onderhoude gevoer is, nie projekrekords van vorige projekte op In sentrale databasis bewaar nie.
42
Ormsby, Charles Martin. "A framework for estimating the total cost of buried municipal infrastructure renewal projects." Thesis, McGill University, 2009. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=66768.
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As Canadian municipalities venture into rehabilitation and replacement of extensively deteriorated underground water distribution and sewerage assets, municipal decision-makers, engineering and construction research bodies and the public all feel that this type of construction work can have adverse effects on the society. This thesis reviews these negative impacts which include, but are not limited to damage of nearby buried and above-ground infrastructure, disruption of traffic, loss of accessibility to businesses, health hazards to workers and the public, and finally environmental pollution and damage. There is presently no accepted practice-oriented method for the evaluation of these social, economic and environmental impacts. This research project proposes a framework to enable municipalities, utility agencies and contracting firms to quantitatively estimate the total cost to society of buried municipal infrastructure renewal projects using open trench, or trenchless construction methods. The total cost of a project is the sum of all the direct and indirect costs borne by the client organization, and external costs borne by society. The external costs can be separated into three components: social, economic and environmental costs. Use of the proposed methodology in a case study of a water main rehabilitation project using trenchless technologies in the city of Montreal, Canada, revealed that the indirect and external costs of the project were approximately 25 percent of its direct costs. The most significant cost components were those attributable to increased vehicular travel time and lost business income.Les municipalités canadiennes s'apprêtent à implanter de grands programmes de réhabilitions et de remplacements des systèmes d'aqueducs et égouts gravement détériorés. Les ingénieurs, entrepreneurs, centres de recherches en génie civil, ainsi que le public affirment que ces travaux ont des impacts négatifs sur la société. Ce mémoire fait état de ces impacts qui incluent, entre autres, l'endommagement des infrastructures avoisinantes, le dérangement de la circulation, la perte d'accessibilité aux entreprises, les risques en santé chez le public et les ouvriers, mais aussi la pollution et l'endommagement environnemental. Présentement, en pratique, il n'y a aucune méthode pour évaluer ces impacts sociaux, économiques et environnementaux. Ce projet de recherche propose aux municipa lités, aux fournisseurs de systèmes public et aux entrepreneurs un procédé pour quantifier le coût total à la société, attribuable à des projets de renouvellement des infrastructures-souterraines par les méthodes de tranchée ouverte ou sans-tranchée. Le coût total d'un projet est la somme des coûts directement et indirectement assumés par le client, ainsi que les coûts externes assumés par les membres de la société. Les coûts externes peuvent être séparés en trois catégories : les coûts sociaux, économiques et environnementaux. Dans le cadre de ce projet, une évaluation du coût total d'un projet de réhabilitation d'aqueduc par technique sans-tranchée à Montréal a conclu que les coûts indirects et externes montaient à 25 pour cent des coûts directs considérés dans le contrat. Les délais aux usagers routiers et la réduction des chiffres d'affaires des entreprises étaient attribuables aux deux plus grands coûts sociaux, économiques et environnementaux.
43
Herszon, Leon. "The complexity of projects : an adaptive model to incorporate complexity dimensions into the cost estimation process." Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2017. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/33747/.
Full textAbstract:
Most projects fail to deliver the required product, on time, or within the budget; and complex projects have additional challenges due to the impact of complexity factors, henceforth called dimensions. Cost overruns are common occurrences with projects, especially on complex ones, which points to a better understanding of the cost-estimation process. Accordingly, it is important to identify the factors affecting the project complexities and their impact on costestimation process. Although project complexities and cost-estimation practices have been discussed in literature, there is a clear gap in the existing body of knowledge regarding how complexity dimensions are linked with cost estimation of project-based industries and how to give due consideration to such complexity dimensions in cost estimation practices. The dynamic nature of complexity calls for a model that considers these dimensions and supports practitioners in the cost estimation process, including guidelines to deal with such complexities. This research aims to develop a model that incorporates complexity dimensions into the costestimation process for complex projects. For that to happen, there is a need to explore the concept of complexity, the dimensions of complexity, and in what context these should be considered in the cost-estimation process. An investigation of how these complexity dimensions impact the cost-estimation process precedes the development of the proposed model. Philosophically this research is positioned in the middle of the ontological, epistemological, and axiological spectra leaning towards idealism, interpretivism, and subjectivism respectively. Considering the use of survey and case studies as research strategies, the research mode is better positioned as inductive with the research choice based on a mixed method of quantitative and qualitative analysis. Empirical data has been collected from a database of complex projects through documentary analysis, and from a survey and interviews that have been used to develop and enhance the proposed model. An analysis of the existing literature on project complexity, along with a documentary analysis of 27 complex projects in a database, provided a list of 23 dimensions that are relevant to project complexity. Based on this list, a survey of 54 practitioners was conducted to gather expert views about the complexity dimensions and their impact on project cost estimation. The 23 dimensions were then prioritized using the Relative Importance Index, which revealed that different industries have distinct views on some dimensions and aligned on others. The survey was followed by a series of 10 in-depth interviews with subject experts. A final analysis of the survey and interviews results helped to eliminate dimensions, reducing the list of complexity dimensions to 15. Once the list of 15 dimensions was established, the model was drafted and divided into an assessment table where practitioners would assess each dimension on a scale of 1 to 4, the mapping of these results on a radar graph for better visualization, and a list of guidelines for cost estimators on how to deal with these complexities. The contribution to knowledge and society will be that such model could support practitioners on creating awareness for complexity dimensions, which would generate more accurate and reliable cost estimates for complex projects.
44
Sahin, Haci Bayram. "Analysing Design Parameters Of Hydroelectric Power Plant Projects To Develop Cost Decision Models By Using Regresion And Neural Network Tools." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12611462/index.pdf.
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Energy is increasingly becoming more important in today&rsquos world. Ascending of energy consumption due to development of technology and dense population of earth causes greenhouse effect. One of the most valuable energy sources is hydro energy. Because of limited energy sources and excessive energy usage, cost of energy is rising. There are many ways to generate electricity. Among the electricity generation units, hydroelectric power plants are very important, since they are renewable energy sources and they have no fuel cost. Electricity is one of the most expensive input in production. Every hydro energy potential should be considered when making investment on this hydro energy potential. To decide whether a hydroelectric power plant investment is feasible or not, project cost and amount of electricity generation of the investment should be precisely estimated. This study is about cost estimation of hydroelectric power plant projects. Many design parameters and complexity of construction affect the cost of hydroelectric power plant projects. In this thesis fifty four hydroelectric power plant projects are analyzed. The data set is analyzed by using regression analysis and artificial neural network tools. As a result, two cost estimation models have been developed to determine the hydroelectric power plant project cost in early stage of the project.
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Surňák, Peter. "Odhadování softwarových projektů." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-16704.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis deals with software estimation, describes individual methods which may be used for constructing estimates in terms of effort, time and costs. It also deals with quality of estimate, the way it is used, the process of selection of the right method and other consequences. The main goal of thesis is creating a compact overview of currently known and used methods and approaches to constructing estimates. As a secondary target comes an example of practical use of estimate on a simulated project, where the way of choosing estimating method is presented, based on project attributes such as size, current stage of project or project type. For achieving these intentions, it is important to first set up basic framework of basic terms such as estimate, estimating, project and software project. Apart from just defining these terms, there are some necessary interrelations which must be explained before anything else. Another step is creating categorization of particular methods, their description, restrictions and suitable uses. The quality of an estimate, including factors which may bias, degrade or improve it, is another step towards final goal. Consequences, which may arise when wrong estimate has been provided, are one more piece of mosaic to this work. Lastly, case study demonstrate how to choose from estimating methods and use them on particular project. The expected benefits of the thesis are mainly in summarizing of existing approaches to the art of estimating broken down to categories, as well as list of principles and factors which affects an estimate and the ways estimates influence the project (in either positive or negative direction).
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Rodriguez, Diego J. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Environmental Quality Improvement Projects: Uncertain Benefits of Willingness to Pay from Referendum Contingent Valuation." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/31226.
Full textAbstract:
The use of contingent valuation (CV) methods to estimate benefits has become increasingly common in project analysis. Ever since the NOAA Blue Ribbon Panel Report in 1993 (NOAA, 1993) recommended the use of the referendum form of CV, it seems to have become the method of choice in practical settings.
Referendum-type questions are thought to be easier to answer than the open-ended variety. But there is a downside: econometric techniques must be applied to the referendum data in order to infer the mean or median willingness to pay (WTP) of the sample and, thus, of the population of potential beneficiaries.
This is not, however, just a technical point. Its implications are demonstrated with data obtained from a referendum CV study done for a proposed sewer and wastewater treatment project designed to improve water quality in the Tietê River flowing through the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The results show that:
A factor of 4 separates lowest from highest central tendency estimates of WTP, ignoring one implausible outlier that is 14 times larger than the largest of the other figures.
This variation is ample enough to make a difference in the cost-benefit analysis results for the project under conservative assumptions.
Analysts that use referendum CV data must be sensitive to the problems they buy into, and decide how to deal with the resulting benefits uncertainty in their project analysis. If the principal use of CV survey data is to produce a mean or median estimate of WTP for Cost-Benefit analysis rather than to test for the factors influencing referendum choice responses and, by implication, WTP, nonparametric approaches have the advantage of simplicity over parametric approaches.Master of Arts
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Mackenzie, David Ian. "A review of project controls in the UK and methodologies to improve the processes." Thesis, Teesside University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10149/112675.
Full textAbstract:
The construction industry represents a significant part of the Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) in the UK. It employs around 1.4 million people and has averaged around 7.5% of GDP over recent years. Although the industry is of major importance to the UK economy, it still under achieves. Many projects run over budget and are completed late to schedule and a lot of resource is invested in making good defects, repair and replacement and in litigation (Latham 1994). These shortfalls in the construction industry were investigated by EGAN 1998 in his report, Rethinking Construction. EGAN proposed five key drivers for change, these consisted of committed leadership, focus on the customer, integrating the processes and teams, a quality driven agenda and commitment to people. Targets were set to gauge the improvements to the UK, these include 10% reduction in capital cost and construction time, 20% reduction in defects and accident, 20% increase in productivity and profitability and 10% increase in predictability of project performance. This thesis reviews one of the most important drivers, which is the improvement to integrate construction processes through improved project controls. The aim of the Thesis was to investigate by a literature review, a questionnaire and survey and three audits of client’s processes and work practices how Project Controls was currently operating to deliver Projects on time and within budget. It was then necessary to review (how based on best practice) current Project Control processes and systems could be improved. The improvements are portrayed by the development a series of “road maps” and “tool kits” demonstrating how processes and systems could be improved. This research thesis investigates the status of Project Controls in the UK and develops methodologies to improve controls. The investigation of Project Controls is based on five pieces of work, namely; i) A literature review of current practices; ii) The development of a questionnaire and survey results; iii) Three client reports of work carried out by the author. The five pieces of work were then contextualised to form a commentary of findings and recommendations for improvement. The recommendations were then linked to a methodology for improvements to the key elements of Project Controls. The aims of the thesis were achieved in that many issues of weakness were identified in current Project Control systems and processes and “road maps” were developed identifying in detail how best practice should be adopted. The thesis identifies major weaknesses in control of major projects with examples such a Pharmaceuticals, Building construction and Road construction industries demonstrating minimal understanding of the concepts and benefits of effective control. It could be described as disappointing series of examples of why some of our Industries fail to deliver to cost and schedule. However, the thesis does layout via “road maps” how improvements could be made, this knowledge has in part been shared with some clients in the Pharmaceutical and Road construction. The thesis therefore does demonstrate a contribution to knowledge and some of its recommendations are being implemented in practice. The primary conclusions of the Thesis indicates that with the exception of Oil & Gas companies there are major gaps between what is accepted as best practice and what is happening in Industry with regards to Project Controls. There is a lack of understanding at Project Control engineer and Project Manager Level. There is a need for additional training in particular for Project Managers as their understanding and ability to see the benefits is paramount to driving forward effective planning and control for projects. Also it is necessary that robust Project Control procedures are established in all industries to integrate the cost and planning disciplines to ensure a common approach to best practice is adopted.
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Torterotot, Jean Philippe. "Le coût des dommages dus aux inondations : Estimation et analyse des incertitudes." Phd thesis, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, 1993. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00421862.
Full textAbstract:
Parmi les nombreux effets des événements d'inondations fluviales, les atteintes aux personnes, les dégradations de biens et les perturbations d'activités constituent des dommages que les politiques de gestion du risque d'inondation visent à réduire. Ces dommages résultent d'un aléa naturel modifié par action anthropique, des enjeux exposés et des ressources mises en œuvre face à l'événement. La première partie de ce mémoire propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'estimation des dommages comme élément d'aide à la décision, notamment dans une perspective économique intégrant le risque et l'incertitude.
La deuxième partie considère l'échelle élémentaire de l'habitat, et se base sur des enquêtes réalisées sur différents sites auprès des ménages sinistrés. Après une analyse de l'occupation des zones inondables, on caractérise les composantes du facteur humain, et en particulier les réponses à l'annonce de crue et à la montée des eaux. Ces réponses et leurs effets sur les dommages sont étudiés par des techniques d'analyses de données, qui intègrent d'autres facteurs significatifs.
La troisième partie du mémoire traite de l'estimation des dommages sur une aire géographique, par des approches de modélisation. À partir d'une analyse conceptuelle de ces modélisations, est défini puis développé un modèle informatisé d'estimation des dommages sur un secteur inondable. Ce modèle local exploite, selon des procédures descriptives explicites, toutes informations et expertises existantes. Il est mis en œuvre sur 245 secteurs, à partir d'une base de données constituée sur les grandes vallées du bassin de la Loire. Une procédure de simulation permet de quantifier les incertitudes sur les estimations de coûts, en analysant les contributions des différentes sources d'incertitude. À échelle régionale, on analyse les effets des cohérences spatiales des crues et des sources d'incertitudes.
La quatrième partie conclut sur les méthodes développées et propose des perspectives ultérieures de recherches.
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Zhou, Gordon. "Machine Learning-Based Cost Predictive Model for Better Operating Expenditure Estimations of U.S. Light Rail Transit Projects." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2021. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=28157527.
Full textAbstract:
Inaccurate forecasts of operating expenditures during the planning phase for new Light Rail Transit (LRT) projects in the United States underestimated future costs by up to 45% (Pickrell, 1989). When operating expenditures exceeded projected levels, local transit agencies often reduced public transit services to operate within their respective annual budgets. Therefore, it is imperative for transit agencies to produce reasonably accurate planning estimates to secure sufficient funding to support future operations, maintenance, and service delivery associated with LRT systems. The research aimed to develop a more accurate LRT operating expenditure predictive model to be used during the planning stage. Traditional statistical analysis and various machine learning-based algorithms were utilized with input from 22 LRT systems in the United States spanning between 2008 to 2018 from various U.S. governmental public databases. This praxis extended the current state of practice that relied primarily on sum of unit-cost estimates (also known as the unit-cost method) which generally failed to produce accurate forecasts due to lack of engineering details at the planning stage. Existing research attempted to develop regression-based methodologies using system-based attributes but did not substantially increase prediction accuracy from using the unit-cost method. The research improved current practices and research by having developed a more accurate and replicable machine learning-based predictive model using available geographic, socio-economic and LRT system-related variables.
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Van, Reede Van Oudtshoorn Armand. "A critical review of the possible reasons for construction cost overruns in light of cost estimating methodologies and models used in industry." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95685.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report was conducted to critically review the methodologies and best practices prescribed by world class cost engineering experts and institutions, in order to develop a cost estimating model which organisations could use as a guideline for their cost estimates on large capital intensive projects.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsverslag is gedoen om ‘n kritiese oorsig te doen op die metodes en beste praktyke voorgeskryf deur wereldklas koste ingenieur deskundiges en instansies, om sodoende ‘n koste beramings model te ontwikkel wat gebruik kan word deur organisasies as handleiding gedurende die koste beraming van hulle kapitale intensiewe projekte.