Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Project evaluation techniques'

Different approaches have been suggested for determining the optimal mix of repair projects for a pavement network. These methods range from random selection to sophisticated mathematical optimization models. This paper presents an analysis of several questions regarding the effectiveness of three possible selection methods. First, the performance of three separate single year project selection methods on different size networks is assessed over a broad funding spectrum. The results indicate that as funding levels increase, the benefit obtained by different selection methods converge. In addition, as the size of the network increases, the convergence tends to occur at progressively lower funding levels. Second, the effect of the performance prediction models on these same selection methods is assessed by altering the coefficients of the models to predict both faster and slower deterioration of the network. The "select sets" of projects created by priority ranking selection and Knapsack IP selection at three separate funding levels are compared to determine how much variation is introduced by the changes in the performance prediction. With a 30% acceleration and deceleration of the deterioration curves, there was little change in the optimal project set created by either method. Finally, a modified Monte Carlo model is used to assess the general shape of the solution space. The results suggest that the solution space is relatively flat except in the immediate vicinity of the optimum. This, in turn, suggests that a Monte Carlo approach to this problem would require a large number of trials to approximate the optimum. This finding conceptually supports findings in this study and others, as well as the intuitive observation, that random maintenance and repair strategies perform poorly compared to more rational approaches. Since only a few sets of repair projects are near the optimum, the chances of a random selection matching one of these near optimal project sets are relatively small.

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a theory that helps explain the conditions under which firms select certain project evaluation techniques. This study uses contingency theory to analyze the impact of environmental uncertainty on the choice of project evaluation techniques. In addition to a direct measure of uncertainty, several dimensions of uncertainty are included in this study. These dimensions of uncertainty include control structure, method of financing, foreign assets, method of growth, and product domination. This study also analyzes the use of project evaluation, management science and risk management techniques in US firms over time and in UK firms over time in order to compare to prior research. A comparison of firms in the two countries are also provided. The primary method of data collection was a survey instrument. Data were also collected from annual reports and various other public sources. The variables that appear significant in the choice of project evaluation technique in US firms are environmental uncertainty, control structure, method of financing, foreign assets, and product domination. The variable that appear significant in the choice of project evaluation technique in UK firms is method of financing. US firms favor discounted cash flow techniques although this study detected a slight decrease over time. UK firms continue to use non-discounted cash flow techniques, although the use of discounted cash flow techniques is widespread. There are significant differences between US and UK firms. US firms tend to use discounted cash flow techniques to a greater extent than UK firms. This research makes a significant contribution in attempting to develop a theory explaining the use of project evaluation techniques in firms in the US and UK. In addition, several other developments relating to project evaluation, management science and risk management are discussed. The results of this study can be used by managers in refining and improving their existing project evaluation processes.

Popular Object Oriented size metrics and estimation methods are examined. A case study is conducted. Five of the methods (&ldquo
LOC&rdquo
, &ldquo
OOPS&rdquo
, &ldquo
Use Case Points Method&rdquo
, &ldquo
J.Kammelar&rsquo
s Sizing Approach&rdquo
and &ldquo
Mark II FP&rdquo
) are applied to a project whose requirements are defined by means of use cases. Size and effort estimations are made and compared with the actual results of the project.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2009.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 179-186).
Project identification and evaluation of transportation infrastructure play a vital role in shaping and sustaining the forms of cities all over the world. These cities differ substantially in character and urban form and have different transport systems and transport related problems. Most large cities in the developing world face major problems as a result of rapid population growth, extensive urbanization, market uncertainties, scarcity of resources and inadequate planning capabilities. Transport policies and procedures that worked reasonably well when cities were smaller start failing as they expand, while environmental and social problems become more pressing. The traditional methodologies for evaluating urban transportation infrastructure projects are unable to address issues of most concern in developing countries. The thesis outlines a framework for assessing the role of various planning and evaluation methodologies for transportation infrastructure projects. The framework developed for project identification and evaluation serves as a useful tool to structure and assess the gaps identified from a literature review and case studies. The major gaps identified can be listed as: * Lack of integrated approach for transportation infrastructure and land-use planning; * Inadequate provision for maintenance and monitoring of transport facilities; * Unequal distribution of benefits of transport for women; * Limited rural transport infrastructure; and * Lack of suitable financing arrangements and no incorporation of sustainable development measures. The overall transportation planning and evaluation process can be improved by incorporating certain steps and requirements that address these gaps and make transportation infrastructure more accessible, safer, reliable, and efficient.
by Vimal Kumar.
S.M.

This report contributes just over a third of the contribution to the researcher's D.Prof programme. It is a synthesis of many different activities and avenues of investigation and learning. This report is about one specific project and is focused on the ways to support the spread and adoption of innovative practices. It is not intended to be a report of the entire D.Prof Programme as the other areas are covered separately (see Exhibits Ai for D.Prof Programme Design). The literature review threw up a number of conflicts of definitions and perspectives, especially in the terminology that can be applied to 'spreading good practice' and 'social marketing'. The many paradoxes and contested concepts are highlighted in the review and the discussion that follows. Whilst this part of the D.Prof programme is centred on a work-based project - The Trent Region Older People Services Programme (TROPSP) - it has been difficult to separate learning in this project from other work based experiences in the same period. The deliverables and outputs generated (see Part B Exhibits) demonstrate both the breadth and depth of the researcher's experience and learning during this D.Prof programme. The experiential nature of action-based research is highly subjective as the researcher is an active participant in the investigative process, where personal actions immediately affect and have consequences on the context and subject matter under investigation. This report, therefore, needs to be read in the light of its context for the researcher, and understood as a piece of qualitative, action orientated research, rather than an analysis driven by more positivist or scientific values. The literature review, assessment of the TROPSP project and discussion about the researcher's personal learning themes, combine to produce a set of conclusions and recommendation as diverse and contested as is the topic of interprofessional social marketing itself. The paradoxes and tensions include: how different theories and frameworks can form unhelpful (or helpful) mental models; the importance of context, perspectives and expectations and how they can influence strategy and implementation of good practice; the tension between the individual and the organisation; how working with key influencers can be as damaging as it can be as supportive; and finally, the issue of whether the aim in social marketing is to spread good practice (Push out) or to enable adoption (Pull in). The work summarised in this report has received national and international recognition. The contribution to the modernising the NBS has been significant and there is much interest from other countries in using some of the techniques developed and used in the TROPSP work based project. The implications for professional practice, for those working with modernising healthcare as well as specifically for the researcher, are important.

Les projets d’aide internationale au développement sont extrêmement divers. Ils visent des objectifs multiples, prennent des formes variées, atteignent des dimensions très différentes et se déroulent dans des contextes très contrastés. Cette extraordinaire diversité suscite un discours méthodologique extrêmement normatif. En effet, concernant l’évaluation de la performance des projets, un seul dispositif est conçu dès le démarrage des projets et de façon invariante pour toute la durée de l’action. Les outils et les techniques de ces dispositifs sont censés collecter et traiter un grand nombre d’indicateurs également identifiés dès la création des projets à partir du « cadre logique ». Ces outils et techniques sont conçus par des instances éloignées du terrain, et redevables à l’égard de bailleurs de fonds. Dans la réalité, on constate cependant que même les projets dotés de moyens conséquents peinent à maîtriser le processus d’évaluation de la performance. Rares sont les praticiens qui réussissent à mener de bout en bout une évaluation de la performance. Plus rares encore sont les projets dont les comités de pilotages utilisent réellement les données issues de tels dispositifs d’évaluation pour éclairer leur décision. Pourtant, les évaluations de la performance sont systématiquement réalisées au sein de chaque projet d’aide internationale au développement. Cette thèse se propose d’expliquer les raisons d’un tel paradoxe
International development assistance projects are extremely various. They have multiple objectives, take various forms and take place in contrasted contexts. This diversity causes a normative methodological discourse. Indeed, concerning the project’s performance evaluation, a single and unchangeable management tools is designed from the start to the end of project.This management tools is supposed to collect and process a large number of indicators also designed at the beginning, according to the project « logical framework ». Tools conceives far away from the project and accountable to the donors. In reality, it can be seen that even projects with substantial resources struggle to master the process of evaluating performance. Few practitioners are successful in leading an evaluation of performance. Even few are the projects whose committee leaders use, for making decision, data from such evaluation. However, performance evaluation are systematically carried out within each international development aid project. This research proposes to explain the reasons of such paradox

Esta tese apresenta um estudo para a utilização de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA) no processo de avaliação e ordenamento de alternativas de projetos de transporte. Partindo-se da ideia de que esse processo constitui-se em um padrão que pode ser captado pelas RNA, a verificação deste argumento foi feita selecionando-se um contexto de avaliação, definindo-se variáveis a serem consideradas no processo de avaliação, e criando-se estruturas de RNA para treinamento com base em outras avaliações já realizadas. Nesta pesquisa foram utilizados 180 \"Estudos de Casos\" recebidos de 32 Estados americanos. Esses dados serviram de entrada para um processo de aprendizagem utilizando-se o simulador \"Neural Planner 4.52\", que baseia-se em redes \"Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)\" e no treinamento em \"Backpropagation\". Várias redes foram treinadas para que fosse definida aquela com um melhor desempenho para o reconhecimento dos padrões existentes nesses casos apresentados. Os 486 experimentos demonstraram índices de acertos superiores a 92% que podem ser visualizados no programa computacional denominado \"EVALUATOR\", uma interface entre o simulador de RNA e usuários. Conclui-se, portanto, que as RNA podem reconhecer os padrões implícitos em avaliações anteriores e servem para avaliar e ordenar alternativas de outros projetos apresentados que pertençam ao mesmo contexto utilizado para treinamento.
This thesis presents a research aimed at the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for appraising and ranking transportation project alternatives. Based on the principle that this process of appraisal and ranking constitutes a pattern that can be perceived by ANN, the verification of this hypothesis was conducted selecting an evaluation context, defining variables to be considered in the process, and creating ANN structures for training based on other evaluation cases. In this research, 180 \"Case Studies\" from 32 American states were used. These data were used as input to a learning process using the simulator \"Neural Planner 4.52\", which is based on \"Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)\" networks and uses a \"Backpropagation\" training algorithm. Several networks were trained to obtain the one most capable of recognizing the patterns of the projects analyzed. More than 92% of the 486 experiments presented right indexes, as shown by a software called \"EVALUATOR\", a user interface between ANN simulator. The conclusion is that ANN can recognize the implicit patterns in previous evaluations and can be used to appraise and rank alternatives from other projects belonging to the same context used for the ANN training.

The execution of construction projects commands a myriad of technological, human, organisational and natural resources. However, the construction and engineering undertaking of these projects are frequently overshadowed by economic difficulties, such as the high costs of construction materials, that have a negative impact on project costs. Cost overruns have been determined as a phenomenon continually plaguing the construction industry in both private and public sectors, and very few projects are completed within cost parameters. This research evaluated the barriers to the use of innovative cost control techniques during the construction phase, and determined the level of cost overruns on construction projects in South Africa; identified innovative cost control techniques used by construction firms on construction projects; established the optimal innovative cost control technique used in the South African construction industry; and uncovered the relationship between the level of use of innovative cost control techniques on construction projects and cost overrun. Questionnaires were the chosen instrument for data collection and were circulated via Survey Monkey. A total of 123 questionnaires were returned, and they provided the base for the computation of study results. Statistical tools employed in the study included percentages, mean item score (MIS), and frequency distributions. A scatter plot was used to distinguish whether there was a correlation between the cost performance of projects and level of innovativeness by establishing a line of best fit through the set of the two variables. A line of best fit in the positive direction indicates that increased levels of innovativeness improves the cost performance of projects, while a line of best fit in the negative direction indicates that increased levels of innovativeness does not enhance project performance. The relationship between the level of innovative cost control techniques usage in construction projects and cost overrun was determined to be negative. This led to the conclusion that construction professionals are limiting themselves and are not exploring alternative or innovative cost control techniques. They were focused on project efficiency and productivity rather than cost overruns. Innovative cost control techniques identified in the study were Earned Value Analysis (EVA), Last Planner System (LPS), 4D Scheduling, Fuzzy Project Scheduling, Integrated critical path and Line of Balance, and Reserve Analysis. Study findings determined that the critical contributors to cost overruns included tight project budgets, project complexity, a high frequency of change orders by clients and financial difficulties encountered by contractors. Perceived barriers to the implementation of innovative cost control techniques in projects by participants included a poor scope definition, a lack of training and technical skill of project personnel, poor understanding of cost analysis and variables involved in cost planning. It also emerged that projects cannot meet project objectives, and construction organisations are not making use of the right tools and techniques to monitor and control construction costs. The research findings have shown that professionals have limited knowledge of innovative cost control techniques. This also concludes that they are not taking advantage of the features of new innovative techniques to tackle complex projects. This, therefore, means that complex projects will continue to experience cost overruns. This study concludes that top management of construction organisations are not training their staff to embrace new technologies and innovation. To address the barriers to the use of innovative techniques, there should be increased investment on the part of construction organisations toward affording their workforce the relevant training, knowledge and technical skill required to implement the modern techniques for cost control identified in the report. The cidb should organise seminars and workshops on the usefulness and importance of innovative cost control techniques, and workers should embrace self-development and change. Government should implement policies on the use of innovative cost control techniques for their projects, and construction organisations should develop capacity in line with innovative cost control techniques.

This thesis presents a proposed methodology for the field evaluation of the efficiency, energy, environmental, and safety impacts of traffic-flow improvement projects. The methodology utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) second-by-second speed measurements using fairly inexpensive GPS units to quantify the impacts of traffic-flow improvement projects on the efficiency, energy, and safety of a transportation network. It should be noted that the proposed methodology is incapable of isolating the effects of induced demand and is not suitable for estimating long-term impacts of such projects that involve changes in land-use. Instead, the proposed methodology can quantify changes in traffic behavior and changes in travel demand. This thesis, also, investigates the ability of various data smoothing techniques to remove such erroneous data without significantly altering the underlying vehicle speed profile. Several smoothing techniques are then applied to the acceleration profile, including data trimming, Simple Exponential smoothing, Double Exponential smoothing, Epanechnikov Kernel smoothing, Robust Kernel smoothing, and Robust Simple Exponential Smoothing. The results of the analysis indicate that the application of Robust smoothing (Kernel of Exponential) to vehicle acceleration levels, combined with a technique to minimize the difference between the integral of the raw and smoothed acceleration profiles, removes invalid GPS data without significantly altering the underlying measured speed profile The methodology has been successfully applied to two case studies provided insights as to the potential benefits of coordinating traffic signals across jurisdictional boundaries. More importantly two case studies demonstrate the feasibility of using GPS second-by-second speed measurements for the evaluation of operational-level traffic flow improvement projects. To identify any statistically significant differences in traffic demand along two case study corridors before and after traffic signal condition, tube counts and turning counts were collected and analyzed using ANOVA technique. The ANOVA results of turning volume counts indicated that there is no statistically significant difference in turning volumes between the before and after conditions. Furthermore, the ANOVA results of tube counts also confirmed that there did not appear to be a statistically significant difference (5 percent level of significance) in the tube counts between the before and after conditions.
Ph. D.

Time delays and cost overruns in construction projects are generally due to factors such as inappropriate planning, design errors, unexpected site conditions, inadvisable tools selection, change scope, weather conditions, lack of resources, and other project changes. Time delays and cost overruns are of concern to most project managers, owners, and governments. These elements of time and cost are two of the critical defects that impact the construction project delivery. These defects can lead to project failures and to various negative issues like increasing in disagreements among the project team, the contractor, suppliers, and the owner. State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) in the U.S. continue to spend heavily on roads, highways, and bridges construction, as well as development, maintenance, and expansion. This continued financial commitment reflects decades of commitment to improve the transportation service for safer and better use by the general public. Despite the notable efforts from most of the states to develop the transportation infrastructure, budget restrictions and lack of funds are some of the major challenges faced by DOTs. Highway and bridge infrastructure has a high potential growth in the U.S. construction market. Well-organized highway and bridge project investment decision-making becomes increasingly crucial in the transportation sector. In this research, transportation is specified to highway and bridge projects, and it focused on high-profile projects. These projects are defined as high-cost projects, and are associated with higher project delivery risk (typically $100 - $500 million). All states are working with their state transportation plan, listing the projects based on each state priorities and population growth. Proper planning leads to the right decision regarding selecting the best alternative within budget, and it must reflect certain core principles, including a comprehensive analysis. To facilitate such a decision process, decision makers need a trusted decision model that considers all important options and impacts. By using a decision model, decision-making will not be subjectively influenced to favor one option or group. The decision model becomes the primary tool for selecting the best option, based on its structure levels, perspectives, sub-criteria, and experts’ input. Recently, there is an apparent need for a decision model to help DOTs evaluating their options. Effective project delivery assessment tools, techniques, or practices are strongly needed to improve transportation construction projects’ performance. The research objective is to develop a comprehensive decision model that can be used by project managers and their teams to choose the most effective project assessment technique for measuring the success of performance and outcomes related to the delivery of transportation projects. This research was focused on the assessment techniques that are used in the development phase within the transportation project lifecycle phases. To this end, the research identified and screened the innovative assessment tools and techniques of project delivery that the transportation and other industries have used by reviewing numerous of academic literature and technical reports. Based on the review, value optimization elements such as cost, time, performance, risk, and resources were selected to be the primary evaluation criteria that lead to achieving the model objective. Also, the model sub-criteria were investigated and selected based on the literature review and direct discussion with some experts such as project managers, civil engineers, and value management consultants. The outcome analysis of the results showed that in terms of objectives that performance efficiency was rated the highest importance with respect to the mission, while resources presented the lowest importance from an overall assessment point of view. The results showed that Alternative 4, the VE-RACRDAM technique, was ranked as the most important alternative among others followed by Alternative 5, while Alternative 2 was ranked the least important. A five scenarios analysis was applied to measure the sensitivity of the effects of changing the relative importance of the assessment criteria on alternatives’ rankings. Results showed that Alternative 4 was maintained as the most effective assessment technique among the other alternatives in the five scenarios. In the end, experts were asked to validate the final research results, and they confirmed that the results were appropriate and valid. The validity of the decision model and findings of this research contribute new insights into the transportation construction industry as the case of state departments of transportation. Also, the experts agreed that this decision model is generalizable and could be used in other industries. Therefore, the model significantly contributes to the project management knowledge, and construction project development and delivery success.

The purpose of the project was to design a curriculum guideline for educators to teach computed radiography. This project can be used as a stand-alone course, or integrated into existing radiologic technology courses.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Everyone, generally. would like to make good decisions, or receive the greatest benefit from a decision made. Companies are no different in this respect and the process of selecting an investment project portfolio has become an important activity. This is, further, complicated by the fact that companies have multiple, and often, conflicting objectives in a situation of capital rationing. This study project proposes a conceptual framework for project portfolio establishment, for application in an industrial manufacturing type environment, by integrating project evaluation and selection, a multi-criteria decision analysis technique and group decision-making. The project issues, the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis technique and group decisionmaking are dealt with sequentially and then integrated to develop this conceptual framework. The explorative part of this study project deals with project evaluation and selection issues, and the concept of the triple bottom line is proposed to capture the multiple objectives of the company's decision context. Further, decision analysis concepts are reviewed and three categories of multi-criteria decision analysis methods identified. Selected methods in these categories are described, examined and the advantages and drawbacks of the different categories highlighted. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is proposed as the underlying multi-criteria decision analysis technique to support this conceptual framework. Group decision-making is investigated, and aggregation procedures and a method of consistency checking suggested. Finally, the framework is applied to a hypothetical case and the results presented.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Oor die algemeen wil almal goeie besluite neem, of maksimum voordeel uit die besluite trek. Maatskappye het dieselfde motivering en die aktiwiteit om 'n kapitaalinvesteringsportfolio saam te stel word as van groot belang beskou. Hierdie aktiwiteit is ook deur die werklikheid van vele, dikwels teenstrydige doelwitte sowel as beperkte fondse bemoeilik. In hierdie werkstuk word 'n begripsraamwerk vir die daarstelling van 'n investeringsportfolio vir kapitaalprojekte in 'n nywerheidsomgewing, wat projekevaluering en - keuring, veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemingstegnieke en groepsbesluitneming insluit, voorgestel. Projekverwante faktore, die keuse van 'n veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemingstegniek en derdens groepsbesluitneming word apart bespreek en daarna in die bogenoemde raamwerk geintegreer. Die navorsingsgedeelte van hierdie werkstuk verwys na die evaluering en keuse van projekte. Die begrip van 'n drievoudige maatstaf ('triple bottom line') om die kompleksiteit van 'n maatskappy se besluitnemingsdoelwitte te illustreer, word ondersteun. Daarna word besluitnemingsbegrippe bespreek en drie kategoriee van tegnieke vir veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemings uitgelig. Onder hierdie kategoriee is verkose metodes beskryf en ondersoek, en voor- en nadele van die kategoriee uitgewys. Die Analitiese Hierargie proses word voorgestel as basis van die begripsraamwerk. Groepsbesluitneming word ondersoek en versamelingsmetodes met kontrole vir konsekwentheid word voorgestel. Laastens word die besluitnemingsraamwerk op 'n denkbeeldige geval toegepas en word die resultate bespreek.

This thesis looks at how involved implementers of the Teaching Recovery Techniques-project in Uppsala, Sweden have experienced the project. Teaching Recovery Techniques is originally a group-based intervention created for use in disaster areas. This intervention has the aim to give self-help to unaccompanied refugee minors with post-traumatic stress symptoms in Uppsala and two neighbouring municipalities, by using non-psychiatric personnel to teach stress-mitigation. This is a pilot project as Teaching Recovery techniques have never been used in this type of setting before. To investigate the opinions of the involved personnel, qualitative interviews with roughly half of the group leader have been made. These have been analysed using manifest content analysis.     The thesis found that while many are happy with the project, it has required unexpectedly high workload as well as suffered from unclear responsibility delegations and lacking communication, primarily in the start of the project. However, due to strong motivation from involved implementers and adaptability from employers, these issues have been overcome to a great degree. Lesson for further TrT-projects targeting unaccompanied minors should put extra effort in planning and defining the roles of involved actors as well as include arenas for horizontal communication between group leaders.
Denna uppsats undersöker hur personal involverad i Teaching Recovery Techniques-projektet i Uppsala, Sverige har upplevt att arbete inom projektet.  Teaching Recovery Techniques är ursprungligen en grupp-baserad intervention ämnad att användas i katastrofzoner.  Syftet med Teaching Recovery Techniques är att ge hjälp till själv-hjälp till ensamkommande flyktingbarn med posttraumatisk stress symptom i Uppsala kommun samt två grannkommuner. Projektets mål är att använda icke-psykiatrisk personal för att lära ut stresshantering. Detta är ett pilotprojekt då metoden inte använts i denna kontext tidigare. För att undersöka personalens åsikter så har kvalitativa intervjuer utförts med hälften av gruppledarna. Dessa har sedan analyserats utifrån manifest innehållsanalys.      Denna uppsats visar att även om många är nöjda med projektet, så har det krävts mycket mer arbetstid än väntat samt att det har varit oklar ansvarsfördelning och kommunikation, framförallt i början av projektet.  Dock har stark motivation från personal och hög flexibilitet från arbetsgivare, motverkat dessa problem i de flesta fall. Lärdomar till framtida likande projekt för ensamkommande flyktingbarn är att ha ett ökat fokus på planeringsstadiet, samt att definiera roller och ansvar bättre från start. Det rekommenderas även att skapa forum för horisontell kommunikation mellan gruppledare.

In much of the recent times the practitioner’s fraternity has been focused towards making investment decisions, based on traditional financial evaluation techniques ranging from Net present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Pay Back Period, Profitability Index. Although these techniques have performed satisfactorily and have provided practitioners’ insights about how to value investments and thereby providing them a holistic view of the project and making informed decisions. However, these traditional techniques have focused more on quantifying the risk assessment done at the beginning of the project, by taking into consideration an optimal discount rate based on the firm’s overall cost of capital, and the additional risk associated with the given project. Nevertheless, these traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) techniques, fails to take into account the value of managerial flexibility in business environments associated with a high degree of uncertainty, thereby not encapsulating the value of different options which are embedded within the project, that managers possess and the value of new information during the project lifecycle. In order to value these options, Real Options Valuation technique has been proposed, which predominantly traces its origin from valuing financial options. Though various academicians have supported this technique and the potential benefits it offers to organizations while making investment decisions, it still rests on a number of assumptions, which needs to be validated across different businesses. Therefore, this study focuses on understanding the obstacles involved with the implementation of Real Options Valuation technique, based on the three roadblocks identified by Lander and Pinches (1998). A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews was conducted within a given case company X in Sweden. Wherein based on the existing financial evaluation technique that company X uses while making investment decisions are analyzed. Based on the responses provided by the company X officials, the study revealed that company X employs traditional financial evaluation techniques, since they are been widely accepted across a wide range of industries, and also decision makers, and shareholders tend to prefer a probabilistic risk assessment at the beginning of the project, however company X do acknowledge the potential benefits offered by Real Options Valuation technique, but they are not been implemented, because of its ignorance among the key decision makers, coupled with complex mathematical calculations and various assumptions that needs to be incorporated while using Real Options approach for valuing investments, which makes it difficult in the context of given company X for using Real Options approach for valuing investments.

In the business domain, interviewing is the requirements elicitation technique of choice for practitioners participating in the development of software solutions. Interviewing is used for reasons such as its simplicity to implement, its familiarity with participants, and the ability to conduct more thorough analysis sessions. It is widely acknowledged that during interviews, experts experience difficulty with articulating their tacit knowledge. This can affect the interview technique. This dissertation examines the effectiveness of interview techniques in eliciting user requirements when knowledge is tacit. A framework is proposed to classify interview techniques using two dimensions developed in this study - specificity and structure. The framework is tested using a survey of qualified practitioners responsible for projects with varying levels of complexity that are 400 hours or less of effort. Multivariate statistical tests are performed to assess the effect of interview dimensions (specificity and structure) after accounting for requirements complexity and human factors. Results suggests that the two proposed dimensions, specificity and structures, do not have a strong effect on effectiveness in general. Further analysis is performed after taking into account the low sample sizes and the use of non-validated scales. This results in preliminary evidence that when there is more structure and less specificity, interview techniques trend towards a higher level of effectiveness. Overall, the dimensions of structure and specificity do not appear to significantly impact the effectiveness of interviewing techniques. The findings of this study are sufficient to encourage further work on the research model. Several suggestions are made for future research.

Statistical Activity Cost Theory (SACT) is an axiomatic and statistical theory of basic accounting measurement practice. The aim of the SACT analysis, among others, is to determine the statistical nature of both the physical production system of an accounting entity and its related costs, which can then be examined and applied to various decision-making problems. A central proposition of SACT is that the physical system of the entity, and the costs related to this system, are separate structures which can be modelled as such. To date, however, mini- mal progress has been made in describing production process structures within the SACT framework, and nor have there been any advances made in applying common statistical techniques to such an analysis. This thesis, therefore, moves to extend the basic theory that has already been developed, presenting a novel method for representing and examining the physical processes that make up an entity's production system. It also examines the costing of these physical models, such that transactional data can be examined and related back to the underlying production processes. The thesis concludes by giving an example of such an application in a case study. The analysis developed in this thesis has been applied in a larger project which aims to produce generic modelling and decision tools, based upon SACT, to support return and risk management.

Many construction projects in the United States are facing the risk of cost overrun and schedule delays. This is also happening here in the State of Louisiana. When these things happen, it causes cost overrun which can then be passed on to the tax payers and may also cause the state to take on less projects than they normal. Many researchers have studied the reasons behind both the cost overrun and the delays resulting in private firms, developing project management tools and best practices to prevent this risk. In this research, I aim to study the historical trend in 2912 publically funded projects in the State of Louisiana. The study will reveal the overall state level of accuracy of forecasting cost and schedule. A forecasting formula based on those historical projects will be developed to assist estimators at the Parish level in predicting cost and schedule performance. The State of Louisiana has so many projects that deal with the transportation system (roadway, bridges, drainage, traffic sign, traffic signal, lighting etc...) My Dissertation will be a study and analysis of time and cost of the projects in LADOTD, whether the projects finish on time, before time or after time as well as the cost of the project that has been completed overrun or underrun or the exact amount that the bid amount was. With this study and analysis, my intention is to create time schedule and cost to be used to on reaching accuracy on finishing the project on time and the exact bid amount of the project (exclude whether condition, extra work, and some unexpected problems that may arise during the length of the project).

This doctoral thesis is focused on metrics and the criteria for socio-technical system diagnostics, which is a high profile topic for companies wanting to ensure the best in product quality. More and more customers are requiring suppliers to prove reliability in the production and supply quality of products according to given specifications. Consequently the ability to produce quality goods corresponding to customer requirements has become a fundamental condition in order to remain competitive. The thesis firstly lays out the basic strategies and rules which are prerequisite for a successful working company in order to ensure provision of quality goods at competitive costs. Next, methods and tools for planning are discussed. Planning is important in its impact on budget, time schedules, and necessary sourcing quantification. Risk analysis is also included to help define preventative actions, and reduce the probability of error and potential breakdown of the entire company. The next part of the thesis deals with optimisation problems, which are solved by Swarm based optimisation. Algorithms and their utilisation in industry are described, in particular the Vehicle routing problem and Travelling salesman problem, used as tools for solving specialist problems within manufacturing corporations. The final part of the thesis deals with Qualitative modelling, where solutions can be achieved with less exact quantitative information of the surveyed model. The text includes qualitative algebra descriptions, which discern only three possible values – positive, constant and negative, which are sufficient in the demonstration of trends. The results can also be conveniently represented using graph theory tools.

Cette thèse se focalise sur l’amélioration de l’évaluation de performance des processus métiers collaboratifs. Il s’agit de poursuivre l’évolution de la collaboration entre l’entreprise et ses partenaires. Trois niveaux d’abstraction ont été d’abord identifiés : Métier, fonctionnel et applicatif. Ensuite, nous avons développé une approche descendante allant du niveau métier au niveau applicatif. Dans le niveau métier, des différents d’indicateurs clés de performance ont été proposés à travers la méthodeECOGRAI. Dans le niveau applicatif, nous avons proposé un référentiel d’analyse contenant des indicateurs techniques fonctionnels tels que la durée, l’input, l’output, et non-fonctionnels notamment la maturité, le risque, l’interopérabilité à partir des traces d’exécution. Nous avons proposé ainsi un modèle ontologique en vue de capitaliser et enrichir la sémantique de la performance de ces processus. Nous avons proposé un modèle ascendant pour l’agrégation des indicateurs technique au niveaumétier. Le principal objectif de cette agrégation est la corrélation entre le comportement de l’application métier agrégé à partir de l’exécution et l’évolution des indicateurs métiers. Un autre modèle de gestion des événements métiers a été également proposé pour consolider le processus d’apprentissage de notre approche. Par ailleurs, pour assurer la convergence de la performance, nous avons combiné entre la gestion des traces et la gestion des évènements métiers. Cette combinaison permet d’accompagner l’évolution des processus métiers collaboratifs pendant leur exécution. L’accompagnement évoqué avant favorise l’obtention d’un diagnostic sur la performance pour servir à la prise de décision. Cette dernière est liée étroitement à la détection des alertes et particulièrement à l’anticipation des déviations de la performance le plus rapidement possible. Pour valider lacontribution scientifique de cette thèse, une étude de cas a été réalisée sur un processus de création de devis dans le cadre du projet européen FITMAN
This thesis focuses on improving the performance evaluation of collaborative business processes. It is about pursuing the evolution of the collaboration between the company and its partners. In the beginning, three abstraction levels were identified: Business, functional and application. Then, we developed a top-down approach from the business level to the application level. In the business level, different key performance indicators have been proposed through the ECOGRAI method. In the application level, we proposed an analytical repository containing functional technical indicators such as duration, input, output, and non-functional, including maturity, risk, and interoperability based on execution traces. We have thus proposed an ontological model in order to capitalize and enrich the semantics of the performance of these processes. We proposed a bottom-up model for the aggregation of technical indicators at the business level. The main objective of this aggregation is the correlation between the behavior of the aggregated business application from the execution and the evolution of the business indicators. Another business event management model was also proposed to consolidate the learning process of our approach. Moreover, to ensure the convergence of performance, we have combined traces management and business event management. This combination allows to accompany the evolution of the collaborative business processes during their execution. The aforementionedaccompaniment favors the obtaining of a diagnosis on performance to be used for decision-making. The latter is closely linked to the detection of alerts and particularly to the anticipation of deviations in performance as quickly as possible. To validate the scientific contribution of this thesis, a case study was carried out on a process of creation of quote within the framework of the European project FITMAN

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial
Wrong investment decisions today can lead to situations in the future that will be unsustainable and lead eventually to the bankruptcy of enterprises. Therefore, good financial management combined with good capital investment decisionmaking are critical to the survival and long-term success of the firms. Traditionally, the discounted cash flow (DCF) methods (e.g. NPV – Net Present Value and IRR – Internal Rate of Return) have been worldwide used to evaluate project investments. However, given that today investments are characterized by high risks and uncertainty, DCF methodologies might be inadequate to deal with these issues. Some authors argue that only the techniques that can appropriately address the problem of uncertainty should be applied. In this paper, the major differences between the traditional methods and Real Options Theory (ROT) were analysed, in the context of an investment in the energy sector. Energy shortage, global warming, and climate change led to an increase in the use of alternative sources of energy, with renewable energy sources (RES) playing a fundamental role in this new energetic paradigm. However, the investment costs often constitute a major barrier to their spread use. Moreover, the overall benefits of renewable energy technologies are often not well understood and consequently they are often evaluated to be not as cost effective as traditional technologies. The way investors evaluate their investments call now for the use of more sophisticated evaluation techniques. Real Options approach can deal with these issues and, as so, began to be considered and applied for the energy sector decision aid. A large set of applications in almost all fields of energy decision making, from electricity generation, technologies appraisal and to policy evaluation is available in the literature. However the use of this technique in the field of RES is still limited and worth to be analysed. This paper addresses this issue. A review of the current state of the art in the application of Real Options approach to investments in non-renewable energy sources and RES is presented, giving perspectives for further research in this field. Also, an application of the ROT to a photovoltaic investment with the study of three different cases is presented, providing some interest conclusions about the major differences in evaluating this technology under ROT and the traditional project evaluation techniques.
Más decisões de investimento hoje podem levar a situações insustentáveis no futuro e que, eventualmente poderão levar à falência de empresas. Portanto, uma boa gestão financeira combinada com uma correcta tomada de decisão de investimento são fundamentais para a sobrevivência e sucesso a longo prazo das empresas. Tradicionalmente, métodos baseados nos Fluxos de Caixa Actualizados (Cash flows) (e.g. VAL – Valor Actual Líquido e TIR – Taxa Interna de Rentabilidade) têm sido utilizados para avaliar os projectos de investimento. Porém, os investimentos de hoje são caracterizados por elevados níveis de risco e incerteza, pelo que metodologias como o VAL são inadequadas para lidar completamente com essas questões. Alguns autores argumentam que somente as técnicas que conseguem abordar adequadamente o problema da incerteza devem ser aplicadas. Neste trabalho, as principais diferenças entre os métodos tradicionais e a Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) foram analisadas, no contexto de um investimento no sector da energia. A escassez de energia, aquecimento global e alterações climáticas levaram a um aumento no uso de fontes alternativas de energia, com as fontes de energia renováveis a desempenharem um papel fundamental neste novo paradigma energético. No entanto, os custos de investimento constituem, muitas vezes, um grande obstáculo ao seu uso e à sua difusão. Para além disso, os benefícios globais das tecnologias de energias renováveis são frequentemente mal compreendidos e por isso estas são frequentemente avaliadas como sendo menos rentáveis do que as tecnologias tradicionais. A forma como os investidores avaliam o potencial dos seus investimentos parece indicar a necessidade do uso de técnicas de avaliação mais sofisticadas. A Teoria das Opções Reais consegue lidar com estas questões e, como tal, começou a ser aplicada no apoio à tomada de decisão no sector energético. Um grande conjunto de aplicações em quase todos os domínios da tomada de decisão neste sector, desde a avaliação de tecnologias de geração de electricidade até à avaliação das políticas, pode ser encontrado na literatura. No entanto, o uso desta técnica no domínio da avaliação de projectos de investimento em energias renováveis é ainda limitado e vale a pena ser analisado. Este trabalho aborda esta questão. Assim, apresenta-se uma revisão do estado da arte na aplicação da metodologia das opções reais para investimentos em fontes de energia não renovável e renovável, sugerindo-se perspectivas para futuras pesquisas neste campo. Além disso, ilustra-se a aplicação da teoria das Opções Reais a um investimento num parque fotovoltaico, fornecendo algumas conclusões interessantes sobre as principais diferenças entre a avaliação desta tecnologia pela teoria das Opões Reais e pelas técnicas tradicionais de avaliação de projectos de investimento.
This work was financed by: the QREN – Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors – the European Union – European Regional Development Fund and National Funds - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under Project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-011377

South Africa is currently faced with the challenge of reducing the huge backlog of infrastructure delivery to communities that were previously disadvantaged. Given the prioritization of empowerment by the South African government, the previously disadvantaged and marginalized sector of the construction industry that comprises mainly, Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is the preferred vehicle of delivery. However, consequent to their historic position outside of the mainstream construction industry, they lack the requisite project management expertise and experience to make good on this objective. This study investigates the characteristics of the personnel managing SMEs and the SMEs themselves, the usage, necessity, importance and adequate use of the techniques, effectiveness and potential applicability of various project management techniques to improve the performance of the SMEs in delivering the much-needed infrastructure. The study also identifies those external and internal factors that are detrimental to the effective implementation of project management techniques. Given the aforementioned, a descriptive survey was conducted among contractors who were either registered members of the Gauteng Master Builders Association (GMBA) or the National Home Builders Registration Council (NHBRC) in Gauteng. The data was collected using a semi-structured, structured and open-ended interview questionnaire, and analysed using descriptive analysis, severity index and content analysis respectively. The findings indicate that experienced and educated personnel manage SMEs. There is usage of essential project management techniques, which the contractors agreed are necessary and important in managing their projects. There is inadequate use of project management techniques among the SMEs. When used, the techniques brought about improvement in the delivery of projects. The research also established various factors that deterred the adequate implementation of project management techniques, namely, lack of adequate project information from professionals, time and financial constraints. The research concludes by suggesting that if significant improvements in the delivery of construction projects are to be attained, the findings stated need to be taken into consideration.
Mr. F.C. Fester Prof. F.A.O. Otieno Mr. I.O. Adegoke

This thesis presents the development of a new propeller design and analysis software capable of adequately predicting the low Reynolds number performance. JBLADE software was developed from QBLADE and XFLR5 and it uses an improved version of Blade Element Momentum (BEM) theory that embeds a new model for the three-dimensional flow equilibrium. The software allows the introduction of the blade geometry as an arbitrary number of sections characterized by their radial position, chord, twist, length, airfoil and associated complete 360º angle of attack range airfoil polar. The code provides a 3D graphical view of the blade, helping the user to detect inconsistencies. JBLADE also allows a direct visualization of simulation results through a graphical user interface making the software accessible and easy to understand. In addition, the coupling between different JBLADE modules avoids time consuming operations of importing/exporting data, decreasing possible mistakes created by the user. The software is developed as an open-source tool for the simulation of propellers and it has the capability of estimating the performance of a given propeller geometry in design and off-design operating conditions. The current development work was focused in the design of airship propellers. The software was validated against different propeller types proving that it can be used to design and optimize propellers for distinct applications. The derivation and validation of the new 3D flow equilibrium formulation are presented. This 3D flow equilibrium model accounts for the possible radial movement of the flow across the propeller disk, improving the performance prediction of the software. The development of a new method for the prediction of the airfoil drag coefficient at a 90 degrees angle of attack for a better post-stall modelling is also presented. Different post-stall methods available in the literature, originally developed for wind turbine industry, were extended for propeller analysis and implemented in JBLADE. The preliminary analysis of the results shows that the propeller performance prediction can be improved using these implemented post-stall methods. An inverse design methodology, based on minimum induced losses was implemented in JBLADE software in order to obtain optimized geometries for a given operating point. In addition a structural sub-module was also integrated in the software allowing the estimation of blade weight as well as tip displacement and twist angle changes due to the thrust generation and airfoil pitching moments. To validate the performance estimation of JBLADE software, the propellers from NACA Technical Report 530 and NACA Technical Report 594 were simulated and the results were checked against the experimental data and against those of other available codes. The inverse design and structural sub-module were also validated against other numerical results. To verify the reliability of XFOIL, the XFOIL Code, the Shear Stress Transport k-? turbulence model and a refurbished version of k-kl-? transition model were used to estimate the airfoil aerodynamic performance. It has been shown that the XFOIL code gives the closest prediction when compared with experimental data, providing that it is suitable to be used in JBLADE Software as airfoil’s performance estimation tool. Two different propellers to use on the MAAT high altitude cruiser airship were designed and analysed. In addition, the design procedure and the optimization steps of the new propellers to use at such high altitudes are also presented. The propellers designed with JBLADE are then analysed and the results are compared with conventional CFD results since there is no experimental data for these particular geometries. Two different approaches were used to obtain the final geometries of the propellers, since, instead of using the traditional lift coefficient prescription along the blade, the airfoil’s best L3/2/D and best L/D were used to produce different geometries. It was shown that this new first design approach allows the minimization of the chord along the blade, while the thrust and propulsive efficiency are maximized. A new test rig was developed and used to adequately develop and validate numerical design tools for the low Reynolds numbers propellers. The development of an experimental setup for wind tunnel propeller testing is described and the measurements with the new test rig were validated against reference data. Additionally, performance data for propellers that are not characterized in the existing literature were obtained. An APC 10”x7” SF replica propeller was built and tested, providing complementary data for JBLADE validation. The CAD design process as well as moulds and propeller manufacture are also described. The results show good agreement between JBLADE and experimental performance measurements. Thus it was concluded that JBLADE can be used to design and calculate the performance of the MAAT project high altitude cruiser airship propellers.
Nesta tese é apresentado o desenvolvimento de um novo código para projeto e análise de hélices, capaz de prever adequadamente o desempenho a baixos números de Reynolds. O JBLADE foi desenvolvido partindo dos códigos QBLADE e XFLR5 e utiliza uma versão aperfeiçoada da teria do elemento da pá que contém um novo modelo que considera o equilíbrio tridimensional do escoamento. O código permite que a pá seja introduza como um número arbitrário de secções, caracterizadas pela sua posição radial, corda, ângulo de incidência, comprimento, perfil e ainda pela polar 360º associada ao perfil. O código permite uma visualização gráfica em 3D da pá, ajudando o utilizador a detetar possíveis inconsistências. O JBLADE também permite uma visualização direta dos resultados das simulações através de um interface gráfico, tornado o código acessível e de fácil compreensão. Além disso, a interligação entre os diferentes módulos do JBLADE evita operações demoradas de importação e exportação de dados, diminuindo assim possíveis erros criados pelo utilizador. O código foi desenvolvido como um código aberto, para a simulação de hélices, e que tem a capacidade de estimar o desempenho de uma determinada geometria de hélice nas condições de operação do seu ponto de projeto e fora do seu ponto de projeto. O trabalho de desenvolvimento aqui apresentado foi focado no projeto de hélices para dirigíveis de grande altitude no âmbito do projeto MAAT (Multibody Advanced Airship for Transportation). O software foi validado para diferentes tipos de hélice, provando que pode ser utilizado para projetar e otimizar hélices para diferentes finalidades. São apresentadas a derivação e validação do novo modelo de equilíbrio tridimensional do escoamento. Este modelo de equilíbrio 3D tem em conta o possível movimento radial do escoamento ao longo do disco da hélice, melhorando as estimativas de desempenho do software. O desenvolvimento de um novo método para a estimativa do coeficiente de arrasto dos perfis a 90º, permitindo uma melhor modelação do desempenho pós-perda é também apresentado. Diferentes modelos de pós perda presentes na literatura e originalmente desenvolvidos para a indústria das turbinas eólicas foram implementados no JBLADE e a sua aplicação a hélices para melhorar a estimativa do desempenho foi analisada. Os resultados preliminares mostraram que a estimativa de desempenho das hélices pode ser melhorada, utilizando estes modelos de pós-perda. Uma metodologia de projeto inverso, baseada no mínimo das perdas induzidas foi implementado no JBLADE, de modo a ser possível obter hélices com geometrias otimizadas para um dado ponto de projeto. Além disto, um módulo de cálculo estrutural foi também implementado, permitindo estimar o peso das pás, a deformação das mesmas, quer em termos de flexão, quer em termos de torção, devido à tração gerada pela própria hélice e aos momentos do perfil. Para validar as estimativas de desempenho do JBLADE foram utilizadas hélices originalmente apresentadas nos relatórios técnicos NACA, nomeadamente no relatório técnico 594 e 530. Estas hélices foram simuladas no JBLADE e os resultados foram comparados com os dados experimentais e com as estimativas de desempenho obtidas através de outros códigos numéricos. O módulo de projeto inverso e o módulo estrutural foram também validados, através da comparação com outros resultados numéricos. De modo a verificar a fiabilidade do código XFOIL usado no JBLADE para previsão das características dos perfis das pás, o modelo de turbulência k-? Shear Stress Transport e uma versão reformulada do modelo de transição k-kl-? foram utilizados em simulações RANS para comparação dos resultados do desempenho aerodinâmico de perfis. Os resultados mostraram que o código XFOIL dá uma estimativa de desempenho mais próxima dos dados obtidos experimentalmente do que os modelos RANS CFD, provando que pode ser utilizado no JBLADE como ferramenta de estimava de desempenho aerodinâmico dos perfis. Em vez da tradicional prescrição do coeficiente de sustentação ao longo da pá para melhor L/D, foi utilizado os pontos de melhor L3/2/D para o projeto de uma hélice para o dirigível cruzador do projeto MAAT. Os procedimentos de otimização empregados ao longo do processo de projeto destas hélices para utilização em grandes altitudes são também descritos. As hélices projetadas com o JBLADE foram analisadas e os resultados obtidos foram comparados com simulações convencionais de dinâmica de fluidos computacional, uma vez que não existem dados experimentais para estas geometrias em particular. Foram utilizadas duas aproximações diferentes de modo a obter duas geometrias finais. Foi mostrado que esta nova abordagem de projeto de hélices leva à minimização da corda necessária ao longo da pá, enquanto a tração e a eficiência da hélice são maximizadas. Foi desenvolvida uma nova instalação experimental para ensaio e caracterização de hélices de baixo número de Reynolds no âmbito do projeto MAAT, que foi posteriormente utilizada para desenvolver e validar ferramentas numéricas para projeto destas hélices. Além da descrição do desenvolvimento da instalação experimental, é também apresentada a validação da mesma, através da comparação das medições de diferentes hélices com dados experimentais presentes na literatura, obtidos em diferentes instalações de referência. Foi construída e testada uma réplica da hélice APC 10”x7” SF, fornecendo dados adicionais para a validação do JBLADE. É ainda apresentado o processo de desenho da réplica no software CAD e de construção dos moldes e do protótipo da hélice. Os resultados mostraram uma boa concordância entre as estimativas do JBLADE e as medições experimentais. Assim, conclui-se que o JBLADE pode ser utilizado para projetar e estimar o desempenho das hélices que poderão ser utilizadas pelo dirigível cruzador do MAAT bem como em outras aplicações.

碩士
中原大學
工業與系統工程研究所
104
This thesis discusses the using of PERT/CPM to assess the time and cost tradeoff in the R&;D phase of medical equipment production. The project managers not only have to implement the execution of the project in a specific time, but also need to handle the risk that might happen during the project. The risk usually arises from the uncertainty which affect project duration and cost. In order to make project more stable and reduce the uncertainty, the PERT/CPM method is used. This real case presents and uses project network to figure out the whole project process and relationship between each activities. Then, a linear programming model is formulated and solved to find out the optimal solution of the project, after that the sensitive analysis is present for further parameter analyze. The result of the case reveals that the optimal time is 14 weeks with the minimum cost. The cost will be increased when the time is reduced further. Finally, though the PERT/CPM techniques still have a lot of space to be improved in this case, this research could provide a good reference for the management to figure out the project completion time within a specific interval under reasonable cost.