Academic literature on the topic 'Project portfolio performance'

Since it was founded in 1991, British theatre company Stan’s Cafe has garnered an international reputation for artistic innovation, and prolific, eclectic performance projects. Their work has toured nationally and internationally, with 2003's Of All The People In All The World having been performed in over fifty cities around the world. Embracing site-specific, immersive, durational, non-text-based as well as scripted work, Stan's Cafe's portfolio defies simple categorization. Running through all their work however is a collaborative devising process that champions a playful experimentation with form. Devising Theatre with Stan’s Cafe reveals and reflects on their theatre-making process, providing an illuminating and accessible account of their work and the approaches, techniques and philosophies which underpin and inspire it. Co-authored by artistic director James Yarker and Dr Mark Crossley, the book is places their work within wider context of contemporary theatre and is the perfect companion to anyone looking to make their own original theatre or performance work. For theatre students, fans and theatre-makers, Devising Theatre with Stan’s Cafe is an inspiring account and practical guide to contemporary performance practice

The overall performance of a project portfolios doesn't rely on the successful implementation of the largest or complex projects, but on how the entire group of projects is managed. In most cases organizations don't have sufficient funds to implement multiple projects in a certain time interval and turn to sponsors in order to implement them. Depending on each sponsors' conditions for funding the project the organization has to create a prioritization scheme for accelerating, delaying or abandoning certain projects. The chapter focuses on managing projects and project portfolios risk in regard to sponsor conditions for funding projects, how these conditions together with technical and contractual risks generate new risks that affect the performance of the portfolio. The chapter concludes with recommendations on how to mitigate risks by developing specific methodologies for managing both financial and technical risks.

OSBRA is a 20″ multiproduct pipeline operated by TRANSPETRO that supplies Diesel oil, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from REPLAN, the Brazilian major refinery, to five Tank Farms located along the country Midwestern region. In 2001, five years after OSBRA first commissioning, TRANSPETRO initiated several projects to improve the pipeline and Tank Farms operational performance on quality, measurement, safety and environmental care. A project portfolio management system was established in order to keep control of projects conducted along the 964 kilometers of pipeline, its Tank Farms and two unmanned pump stations. Learned lessons and good practices were adopted from typical project management cases on the pipeline industry, such as: tank drainage, effluents and fire protection systems; improvements on pipeline measurement and control systems; improvements on pipeline leak detection system; tank construction; short length pipelines construction; truck loading and unloading terminal facilities; jet fuel receiving, storage and delivering system; technology developing projects and so on. Some of these projects were conducted based on PETROBRAS traditional experience on project management, some were conducted according to the Independent Project Analysis Institute - IPA and the best recommended practices from the PMI’s PMBOK® Guide, and others were conducted considering a mix of both practices. During the project, the members of the project team and its stakeholders were geographically spread out through several sites. This paper presents how the OSBRA project portfolio has been managed by a reduced multi-disciplinary team, including safety and environmental professionals, in order to keep each project aligned to meet its essential operational and business objectives.

Over the last decade, the Author’s company (Alstom Power) has retrofitted the steam turbines in 34 nuclear units on a diverse range of half and full-speed machines, powered by Pressurised and Boiling Water Reactors. Some of those projects have been described in other papers, with an explanation of the novel laser measurement and fast-track installation techniques that have been developed to meet the onerous demands of nuclear plants and authorities. The ageing global nuclear fleet has suffered reduced levels of reliability and performance due to effects such as Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC), moisture erosion and shaft line torsional faults. Alstom has developed a range of steam turbine retrofit solutions that are resistant to SCC and erosion, have extended maintenance intervals and deliver high levels of efficiency. A portfolio of rear stage blades is available, from which an optimum design can be selected to suit each project. This paper focuses on the improvements in thermal performance and reliability of a number of recent nuclear steam turbine retrofits. It outlines the existing designs and some of the challenges faced by the plants concerning reliability, operation and efficiency and then describes the approach to addressing those issues by retrofitting with modern designs. The paper describes the blading design and the techniques which are used to evaluate exhaust performance. It will also show the methods which have been used to integrate longer Last Stage Blades into existing LP frames. The paper concludes by presenting the experience, in terms of performance and installation, of some of the projects.

Large Central Scientific Facilities such as the ESRF (the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility) and ILL (the European centre for neutron research), were set up to provide scientists with the advanced facilities they need to exploit neutron and synchrotron X-ray beams for scientific research. Engineers also conduct research at these Facilities, but this is less common as most practicing engineers generally have little or no knowledge of neutron or X-ray scattering, or of their considerable potential for engineering research, model validation, material development and for fatigue and failure analysis. FaME38 is the new joint support Facility for Materials Engineering, located at ILL-ESRF, set up to encourage and to facilitate engineering research by engineers at these facilities. It provides a technical and knowledge centre, a materials support laboratory, and the additional equipment and resources that academic and industrial engineers need for materials engineering research to become practicable, efficient and routine. It enables engineers to add the most advanced scientific diffraction and imaging facilities to their portfolio of diagnostic tools. These include non-destructive internal and through-surface strain scanning, phase analysis, radiography and tomography of engineering components. Synchrotron X-ray and neutron diffraction strain mapping is particularly suited for the rigorous experimental, non-destructive, validation of Finite Element and other computer model codes used to predict residual stress fields that are critical to the performance and lifetimes of engineering components. This paper discusses the FaME38 facility and demonstrates its utility in gaining fundamental insight into mechanical engineering problems through examples, including studies of railway rails, welds and peened surfaces that demonstrate the potential of neutron of synchrotron X-ray strain scanning for the determination of residual stress fields in a variety of engineering materials and critical components.

Being in control of requirements in building projects is vital, since it helps securing the often small profit margins and the reputation of the responsible company. Hence this research aims to introduce requirements management to the construction industry. By means of case study and action research conducted at a Danish construction syndicate producing sandwich elements made from High Performance Concrete and insulation materials it is demonstrated that requirements management successfully can be used in construction. Since requirements management as of today has not found its use in this industry, yet, success is here defined as an accomplished and accepted implementation of requirements management processes that are used by the relevant project members in their daily work and where the benefits of implementing requirements management outweighs the cost of invested resources. Furthermore it is argued that when running technology development, product development, product platform development, and a portfolio of building projects at the same time the use of requirements management is advantageous and an intelligent way of structuring requirements is needed. This article also demonstrates that the application of requirements management with gain can be extended to cover entire life cycles as e.g. the life cycle of a building. This is done by proposing a requirements structure that attempts to consider future events. The proposed structure is divided into the areas: company, technology, product platform, and building and covers all encountered types of requirements, e.g. functional (defines what a system is supposed to do), non-functional (defines how a system is supposed to be), technical, organizational, and even personal requirements. As a result the conducted research clearly shows that requirements management can be applied to the construction industry. At the same time it also becomes obvious that it is necessary to open doors to further research looking into not only using requirements databases & processes especially designed for the construction industry but also the training of key personnel in requirements management, and how the introduction of requirements management can impact the construction industry and their customers in the long run.

In January 2008 the Governor of Hawaii announced the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative; an initiative that aims to have at least 70 percent of Hawaii’s power come from clean energy by 2030 [4]. In July 2009, the Hawaii Department of Accounting and General Services awarded NORESCO, an energy service company, a $33.9M contract to improve the energy efficiency of 10 government buildings. The avoided utility cost of the energy and water savings from the improvements is the project funding mechanism. The energy savings realized by the project will reduce carbon dioxide emissions associated with utility power generation. However, as renewable energy becomes a larger portion of the utility generation profile through the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative, the carbon dioxide emissions reductions from specific energy efficiency measures may erode over time. This work presents a method of analysis to quantify the carbon dioxide emissions reduction over the life of a project generated by energy efficiency upgrades that accounts for both the impact of policy initiatives and climate change using DOE-2/eQUEST. The analysis is based on the fact that HVAC energy usage will vary with climate changes and that carbon dioxide emission reductions will vary with both energy savings and the corresponding utility’s power generation portfolio. The energy savings related to HVAC system energy efficiency improvements are calculated over the life of a 20 year performance contract using a calibrated DOE-2/eQUEST model of an existing building that utilizes weather data adjusted to match the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The carbon dioxide emissions reductions are calculated using the energy savings results and a projection of the implementation of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. The emissions reductions are compared with other analysis methods and discussed to establish more refined expectations of the impact of energy efficiency projects in context with climate changes and policy initiatives.

This article presents an initial design methodology of the water/steam cycle of combined-cycle power plants. From prescribed boundary conditions such as the GT type or ambient conditions, the water/steam cycle process model performs a computation and initial design of all key components, leading to cycle performance and cost. Particular focus is given here to the Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG), a key component for heat integration having a large impact on both plant cost and performance. With the assistance of an optimization toolbox, optimal designs are found with respect to cost and performance. The process model allows a number of water/steam cycle configurations. Features include the number of pressure levels, the choice of single or double reheat, options for supplementary firing in the HRSG, heat integration with GT coolers, fuel gas preheating and steam extraction from the steam turbine. From prescribed thermodynamic inputs, the model computes and/or selects key components and systems from the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) portfolio: HRSG, piping, steam turbine, condenser and generator. For each key component and system, the performance and cost are derived. The initial design of the HRSG fully integrates all interfaces and is supported by a sub-optimization step, which provides proper surfacing and sequencing of heat exchanger components with the target of minimizing cost. To achieve the required accuracy, the HRSG is first designed technically in detail, namely dimensioning and material selection of finned tubes, structural steel, casing and insulation. The resulting partial bill of quantities is then converted into cost, applying appropriate material rates. This approach guarantees full sensitivity of the model to mass flow, pressure or temperature changes at any location in the HRSG. Coupled to this process model, the multi-objective optimization toolbox allows identifying the pareto front for plant net performance and plant cost, clearly two conflicting objectives. In the example application of a KA26–1 combined-cycle power plant, steps are identified on the pareto front, which can be associated with the number of HRSG modules. For selected project economic conditions and plant operation profile, the pareto front can be post-processed to identify the design with minimum COE or maximum project NPV. Simultaneous optimization of the complete cycle ensures the best possible integration of all key components. Flexibility, speed and effectiveness of the methodology allow exploring many cycle variants, maximizing the chances of finding the global plant optimum in less time. Having been thoroughly validated, the initial design methodology is applicable for development of standard plants as well as integration of specific customer requirements.

Arizona Public Service (APS) is currently installing and operating new power facilities to generate a portion of its electricity from solar resources that will satisfy its obligation under the Arizona Environmental Portfolio Standard. During FY04, APS began construction on a 1-MWe parabolic trough concentrating solar power plant. Site preparation and construction activities continued throughout FY05 and early FY06. Construction was completed and initial startup occurred by the end of December 2005. Full power production and initial performance monitoring and evaluation will occur early in 2006. This project is the first commercial deployment of parabolic trough collector technology developed by Solargenix Energy, Inc. of Raleigh, North Carolina. The plant, located near Red Rock, Arizona, uses an organic Rankine cycle power plant by Ormat, which is much simpler than conventional steam Rankine cycles and allows unattended operation of the facility. APS has teamed with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories (collectively called SunLab), along with Nexant, Inc. to support design and startup activities and performance assessment. SunLab has developed TRNSYS models of the plant and will utilize initial performance baseline data to validate the models. Eventually, those models will be used to determine whether a proposed thermocline energy storage system designed by Nexant, Inc. is technically and economically feasible for this plant. SunLab has also assisted APS with development of an O&M database using the Maximo system to track solar plant costs and component failure modes.

Abstract Hydrocarbon field (re-)development requires that a multitude of decisions are made under uncertainty. These decisions include the type and size of surface facilities, location, configuration and number of wells but also which data to acquire. Both types of decisions, which development to choose and which data to acquire, are strongly coupled. The aim of appraisal is to maximize value while minimizing data acquisition costs. These decisions have to be done under uncertainty owing to the inherent uncertainty of the subsurface but also of other costs and economic parameters. Conventional Value Of Information (VOI) evaluations can be used to determine how much can be spend to acquire data. However, VOI is very challenging to calculate for complex sequences of decisions with various costs and including the risk attitude of the decision maker. We are using a fully observable Markov-Decision-Process (MDP) to determine the policy for the sequence and type of measurements and decisions to do. A fully observable MDP is characterised by the states (here: description of the system at a certain point in time), actions (here: measurements and development scenario), transition function (probabilities of transitioning from one state to the next), and rewards (costs for measurements, Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of development options). Solving the MDP gives the optimum policy, sequence of the decisions, the Probability Of Maturation (POM) of a project, the Expected Monetary Value (EMV), the expected loss, the expected appraisal costs, and the Probability of Economic Success (PES). These key performance indicators can then be used to select in a portfolio of projects the ones generating the highest expected reward for the company. Combining the production forecasts from numerical model ensembles with probabilistic capital and operating expenditures and economic parameters allows for quantitative decision making under uncertainty.

This investigation builds on the Alvarez et al. (2021) Project Completion Report (PCR) analysis and its aim is to assess the implications of that study for the current portfolio of projects under execution at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). We use the sample of PCRs which reached operational closure (CO) in 2017 and 2018 to estimate the impact that design and execution performance characteristics of projects played in the likelihood of ending as successful and/or effective. Based on the estimated coefficients, we construct risk curves to isolate the effect specific characteristics have on the likelihood of a project being classified as unsuccessful/ineffective. We then use the estimated coefficients and, using the actual values for the current portfolio of projects in execution, identify the fraction of the portfolio that is at risk of ending as unsuccessful/ineffective projects. According to our analysis, of the 249 projects assessed, 39 have a 50% or less chance of being successful. Thirteen (13) projects have less than a 10% chance. For about 70% of the projects analyzed, given the characteristics they exhibit, the likelihood that they end up successful has already been curtailed. The type of analysis presented here can help IDB Management identify key performance indicators to keep track of during execution to periodically assess the level of risk it is willing to accept in terms of projects ending unsuccessful/ineffective as rated by the current PCR methodology.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.