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1
Barria, Pilar A., Murray C. Peel, Kevin J. E. Walsh, and René Garreaud. "Analysis of within and between-GCM uncertainties of runoff projections in Mediterranean-like catchments." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 67, no. 3 (2017): 181. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es17011.
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Streamflow reductions have been reported in mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) catchments, in particular in the southwest of Western Australia (SWA) and in central Chile (CC), following decreases in precipitation since the mid-1970s. Although projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicate the observed trends are expected to continue during the rest of the 21st century, they are affected by large uncertainties that challenge informed decision making. Quantification and comparison of uncertainties in runoff projections for the period 2050-2080 relative to 1970-2000, driven by an ensemble of a single GCM with perturbed physics (CPDN) and a multi-model ensemble of different GCMs (CMIP5), were used to account for what we term “within-GCM” and “between-GCM” uncertainty in SWA catchments. Between GCM uncertainty of runoff projections was also quantified in CC catchments. Within and between-GCM uncertainties were found to be very similar (∼55 per cent) in SWA catchments. Between-GCM uncertainty for runoff projections in CC catchments is smaller than in SWA. On average, uncertainty of about 51 per cent, under RCP8.5 scenario, was simulated for the period 2050-2080 compared to 1970-2000. For CC catchments a dichotomy was observed in runoff projections under the RCP4.5 scenario, which according to our preliminary analysis might relate to how ozone is specified within different GCMs. We conclude that the number of models sampled by the CMIP5 ensemble, which includes multiple model runs from some GCMs, provides some insight into within-GCM uncertainties. Furthermore, since CMIP5 model runs report values for all regions and are easily accessible, the CMIP5 ensemble is more convenient for regional hydrological assessments than the perturbed physics experiments.
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Nikitovic, Vladimir. "On the problem of population projections exactness at district level: Example of population projections of Serbia 1970-2000." Stanovnistvo 43, no. 1-4 (2005): 81–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/stnv0504081n.
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The quality and exactness of population projections is an important issue not only for their numerous users but for all authors of these demographic calculations who try to increase their utility value. The question of the exactness of population projections of smaller territorial entities are especially sensitive and for smaller time periods as well, because such projections are usually used as input parameters for various forms of social planning. The results of the analysis which refers to the best documented set of projections so far of this type and which includes the whole territory of Serbia have been presented in this work. The projections are on the level of municipalities made for a thirty year period, 1970-2000, as a scientific basis of the social plan of SR Serbia. Two different variants had been prepared. One understood the linear continuation of noted tendencies from the projected period, and the other is the result of the hypothesis of the so-called cohort-component method which assumed gradual equaling of fertility namely mortality level among the municipalities within each macro-entity of Serbia, with migrations abstracted. By applying several indicators, based on relative discrepancy of projected total district population from the registered values by census, the projected mistake intensity and direction has been determined. The explication of the origin and formation of measured values had been carried out by analyzing the discrepancies of projected trends of main demographic components in relation to realized demographic development. Within the analysis, the correlation dependency level was tested between the amount of mistakes and factors which were recognized as possible sources of discrepancy. The analysis results confirmed the importance of migration components in projecting populations of smaller territorial units within the country. Although prediction of future migrational balance is connected with the greatest sources of uncertainty in comparison with the other two components of population development, especially on a long-term basis, its abstraction from the projected calculations considerably influences more the exactness of projected results regarding the district level rather than macro-entirety level. The reason lays in the generally more intensive inner-state migrational trends rather than in outer migrations, as well as in the proportionally larger migration effect on small population units in comparison with macro-entireties. One of the basic results of this analysis indicates that the greatest discrepancies of projected results, in relation to realized values, are connected precisely to districts where demographic development of migrational components had their greatest influence.
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Gallet, Bastien. "Composer des étendues, projeter des images : deux pratiques de l’art sonore." Circuit 17, no. 3 (2008): 21–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/017586ar.
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Résumé Partant d’une description du dispositif hautement « situé » I am sitting in a room (1970) d’Alvin Lucier – une oeuvre qui compose ce qui est dit avec l’espace dans lequel le propos est énoncé –, l’auteur distingue scrupuleusement entre l’installation sonore et l’in situ à proprement parler, ainsi qu’entre l’installation et la projection du son. En choisissant des exemples dans des oeuvres d’artistes aussi variés que Max Neuhaus, Robin Minard, WrK et Bill Viola, entre bien d’autres, l’auteur analyse l’utilisation que chacun fait des sons et des espaces de projections de ceux-ci. En sort un vif portrait des réalisations anciennes et récentes dans la pratique de l’art sonore dans l’espace.
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Martin, Frederick. "A Dresden Codex Eclipse Sequence: Projections for the Years 1970–1992." Latin American Antiquity 4, no. 1 (1993): 74–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/972138.
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Data from the U. S. Naval Observatory annual astronomical almanacs (1970–1992) in “correlation” with the Maya Calendar Round (CR) sequence indicate that the Dresden Codex lunar table (51a-58b) very probably counted simultaneous sequences of both lunar and solar eclipses on the same set of day names. The contemporary sequence of day names in the CR and the astronomy consistent with it parallels Classic-period Maya observational experience between 9.16.0.0.0 and 9.17.0.0.0.
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Johnson, Todd M., and Peter F. Crossing. "Religions by Continent." Journal of Religion and Demography 7, no. 2 (2020): 172–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2589742x-12347107.
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Abstract This article offers analysis of religious affiliation for 18 categories of religion for the globe and six continents: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Northern America, and Oceania. Estimates of religious affiliation are made for four dates, 1970, 2000, 2020, and projections for 2030. Annual average growth rates are provided for two 30-year periods, 1970–2000 and 2000–2030. These global and continental tables are aggregated from country data in the World Religion Database.
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Johnson, Todd, and Peter F. Crossing. "Religions by Continent." Journal of Religion and Demography 6, no. 2 (2019): 215–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2589742x-00602003.
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This article offers analysis of religious affiliation for 18 categories of religion for the globe and six continents: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Northern America, and Oceania. Estimates of religious affilia¬tion are made for four dates, 1970, 2000, 2018, and projections for 2030. Annual average growth rates are provided for two 30-year periods, 1970–2000 and 2000–2030. These global and continen¬tal tables are aggregated from country data in the World Religion Database.
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Davies, Trevor D., and Ian D. Jonsen. "Identifying nonproportionality of fishery-independent survey data to estimate population trends and assess recovery potential for cusk (Brosme brosme)." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68, no. 3 (2011): 413–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f10-165.
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Cusk ( Brosme brosme ) was designated as “threatened” by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2003, based on an estimated 93% decline between 1970 and 2001 from the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Scotian Shelf summer bottom trawl survey index. We combined this index with a fishery-dependent longline index in a Bayesian surplus production state-space model to estimate population trends and the recovery potential of western Scotian Shelf cusk. We tested for index nonproportionality using a power curve function in the observation model and identified potential hyperdepletion for cusk in the trawl survey index. We estimate a 59% decline in cusk biomass between 1970 and 2001, and a 64% decline from 1970 to 2007. Although population projections indicate the current landing limit should lead to population recovery, robustness tests suggest the biomass projections and recovery time lines are overly optimistic. Simulations showed that incorporating multiple indices increases power to recapture model parameters and failure to account for index nonproportionality results in biased parameter estimates. We suggest that nonproportionality of fishery-independent indices must be considered when determining the population status of data-poor species.
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Goujon, Anne, Samir K.C., Markus Speringer, et al. "A HARMONIZED DATASET ON GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BETWEEN 1970 AND 2060 – AN ANALYTICAL WINDOW INTO RECENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT." Journal of Demographic Economics 82, no. 3 (2016): 315–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dem.2016.10.
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Abstract:We hereby present a dataset produced at the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC) containing comprehensive time series on educational attainment and mean years of schooling (MYS). The dataset is split by 5-year age groups and sex for 171 countries and covers the period between 1970 and 2010. It also contains projections of educational attainment to 2060 based on several scenarios of demographic and educational development. The dataset is constructed around collected and harmonized empirical census and survey data sets for the projection base year. The paper presents the principles and methodology associated with the reconstruction and the projection, and how it differs from several previous exercises. It also proposes a closer look at the diffusion of education in world regions and how the existing gaps in terms of generation, gender, and geography have been evolving in the last 40 years.
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Ishizaki, Noriko N., Koji Dairaku, and Genta Ueno. "Introducing Quantile Mapping to a Regression Model Using a Multi-Model Ensemble to Improve Probabilistic Projections of Monthly Precipitation." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 5 (2018): 873–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0873.
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A new method was proposed for the probabilistic projection of future climate that introduced quantile mapping to a regression method using a multi-model ensemble (QM_RMME). Results of this method were then compared with those of the traditional regression method (RMME). Six stations in Japan where 100 year observation records were available were used to evaluate the performance of the methods. An initial 50-year period (1901–1950) was used to develop the regression models and the final period (1951–2000) was used for evaluation. Results showed that the estimation errors at the 50th and 90th percentile were smaller for QM_RMME as compared to RMME at most sites. Conversely, when the model development and evaluation periods were limited to 20 years (1901–1920 and 1951–1970, respectively), the 90th percentile error was larger for QM_RMME. This was attributed to quantile mapping resulting in over-fitting of the data during the model development period. Furthermore, the QM_RMME error increased when the difference of observations between the model development and verification periods was large. Therefore, results indicated that the RMME method was more stable for relatively short data verification periods.
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Esmersoy, Cengiz, and Douglas Miller. "Backprojection versus backpropagation in multidimensional linearized inversion." GEOPHYSICS 54, no. 7 (1989): 921–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/1.1442722.
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Seismic migration can be viewed as either backprojection (diffraction‐stack) or backpropagation (wave‐field extrapolation) (e.g., Gazdag and Sguazzero, 1984). Migration by backprojection was the view supporting the first digital methods—the diffraction and common tangent stacks of what is now called classical or statistical migration (Lindsey and Hermann, 1970; Rockwell, 1971; Schneider, 1971; Johnson and French, 1982). In this approach, each data point is associated with an isochron surface passing through the scattering object. Data values are then interpreted as projections of reflectivity over the associated isochrons. Dually, each image point is associated with a reflection‐time surface passing through the data traces. The migrated image at that point is obtained as a weighted stack of data lying on the reflection‐time surface (Rockwell, 1971; Schneider, 1971). This amounts to a weighted backprojection in which each data point contributes to image points lying on its associated isochron.
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Hamelin, Louis-Edmond. "La population des Territoires-du-Nord-Ouest au cours des années 1960 et 1970." Cahiers québécois de démographie 7, no. 3 (2009): 159–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/600774ar.
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RÉSUMÉ Cette étude de la population des Territoires-du-Nord-Ouest (46 386 habitants en janvier 1978) a pour but de dégager des caractéristiques démographiques régionales pouvant servir à l’établissement de projections. Après avoir souligné l’insuffisance du stock statistique et l’utilité de quelques recherches pilotes, nous avons trouvé des concepts appropriés d’analyse : population « permanente », population « courante » (et sous-groupes), classes de peuplement, types et niveaux de chômage… L’histoire récente montre que l’accroissement naturel s’est avéré plus important que les migrations dans l’augmentation des populations. Les mouvements extérieurs commandent toutefois une évolution saccadée : l’accroissement annuel était de 2 706 individus en 1970 mais seulement de 510, trois ans plus tard. Le phénomène de centralité s’exerce au profit de la capitale de Yellowknife (près de 10 000 habitants) qui, depuis dix ans, a capté 63 % de toutes les migrations territoriennes nettes. Le clivage ethnique — Inuit 32 %, Déné 17 %, Métis 4 %, Blancs 47 % — domine la démographie territorienne. Les deux tiers de la population amérindienne habitent des localités de moins de 750 habitants alors que les deux tiers des Blancs sont dans des villes de plus de 3 000 habitants. En 1977, le taux général de dépendance était aussi élevé que 73 %. Malgré l’imprécision des statistiques, une certaine connaissance de la démographie territorienne est possible.
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Kim, Dae-Rae. "Differences between Residence Population and Population Projections(1970-2016) and it’s Implications-Focusing on Busan-." HANGDO BUSAN 39 (February 28, 2020): 449–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.19169/hd.2020.2.39.449.
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Dudley, Leonard, and Norberto E. Garcia. "Pauvreté et progrès technique en Amérique latine : une vue à long terme." Articles 53, no. 2 (2009): 318–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/800727ar.
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Abstract This study uses a simulation model of the Latin American economy in order to project the relationship between technical progress and income distribution over the 1970-2000 period. In the basic projections—an extrapolation of the present trends—a large number of urban and rural residents tend not to have access to the benefits of development. Alternative projections simulate the effects of policies aiming at i) the acceleration of growth, ii) the modification of the nature of technical progress, iii) the transfer of consumption. The impact of the two first policies is substantial, the main contribution of technological policies being a more equitable distribution of the benefits of growth.
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Terama, Emma, Anu Kõu, and KC Samir. "Early Transition Trends and Differences of Higher Education Attainment in the Former Soviet Union, Central and Eastern European Countries." Finnish Yearbook of Population Research 49 (December 31, 2014): 105–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.23979/fypr.48426.
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The past trends in tertiary education attainment of selected post-communist countries are investigated through population projections. Did a common higher education policy manifest itself through attainment levels, and how did the situation change after the collapse of the Soviet regime? The approach is based on comprehensive back-projections ranging from year 2000 to 1970. Descriptive findings for most countries show that the level of tertiary education attainment for women has surpassed that of men sooner than in Western Europe. Results are discussed in light of individual countries’ pre-war higher education models and former communist policy, and possible implications are derived for future study of higher education attainment.
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Navarro, Jose, and Vegard Skirbekk. "Income inequality and religion globally 1970–2050." Scripta Instituti Donneriani Aboensis 28 (April 4, 2018): 175–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.30674/scripta.70072.
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Economic inequality is a paramount issue for the future of global affairs and interreligious relations. This study contributes to the field by providing the first ever estimates of global inequality by religion. We combine estimations and projections of religious compositions and distribution of income by age and sex across the world between 1970 and 2050. Understanding economic inequality from a religious dimension can contribute to decreasing tension, creating targeted pol-icies and reducing the risks of social upheaval and conflict.
 We find that in societies with higher proportions of religiously unaffiliated populations, income distribution is more equal than in religious ones. We also describe the inequality of distribution of income within religious groups and find that Christian and Jewish societies tend to be the most unequal, while inequality has risen substantially across all societies, concomitant with strong economic growth. Societies formed of Muslim, Hindu and unaffiliated populations are among the more equal ones. Muslim societies have experienced the highest rise in income inequality of all religions since 1990.
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Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, et al. "Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 11, no. 8 (2011): 24127–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-24127-2011.
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Abstract. We investigate the climate response to US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950 to 2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050). We find that most of the potential warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period.
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Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, et al. "Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 7 (2012): 3349–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3349-2012.
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Abstract. We investigate the climate response to changing US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950–2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050). We find that most of the warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period.
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Bystroff, Christopher. "Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years." PLOS ONE 16, no. 5 (2021): e0247214. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247214.
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Projections of future global human population are traditionally made using birth/death trend extrapolations, but these methods ignore limits. Expressing humanity as a K-selected species whose numbers are limited by the global carrying capacity produces a different outlook. Population data for the second millennium up to the year 1970 was fit to a hyper-exponential growth equation, where the rate constant for growth itself grows exponentially due to growth of life-saving technology. The discrepancies between the projected growth and the actual population data since 1970 are accounted for by a decrease in the global carrying capacity due to ecosystem degradation. A system dynamics model that best fits recent population numbers suggests that the global biocapacity may already have been reduced to one-half of its historical value and global carrying capacity may be at its 1965 level and falling. Simulations suggest that population may soon peak or may have already peaked. Population projections depend strongly on the unknown fragility or robustness of the Earth’s essential ecosystem services that affect agricultural production. Numbers for the 2020 global census were not available for this study.
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Greer, William. "Trends and projections of annual birth volumes in the State of Qatar: 1970-2025." Avicenna, no. 2013 (July 2013): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.5339/avi.2013.3.
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Martins, André Saboia. "Anotações sobre a Intervenção na Guatemala em 1954: uma análise de suas projeções sobre as práticas sistemáticas de violação aos direitos de asilo e refúgio durante a guerra fria." Revista de Estudos e Pesquisas sobre as Américas 10, no. 2 (2016): 28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21057/repam.v10i2.21892.
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Sumário:A intervenção dos Estados Unidos na Guatemala, mediante ação encoberta da CIA que resultou na deposição do presidente Jacobo Arbenz em junho de 1954, foi um episódio crucial da guerra fria, cujas projeções ultrapassam sua conjuntura histórica específica. O objetivo do presente artigo é analisar, com base em estudos recentemente publicados, episódios de vigilância e detenção arbitrária de pessoas que buscaram asilo nas representações diplomáticas latino-americanas na cidade da Guatemala em decorrência do golpe de estado de 1954. De modo semelhante, as práticas repressivas adotadas em nível regional contra os asilados guatemaltecos serão examinadas como importante antecedente histórico das violações sistemáticas aos direitos humanos de refugiados políticos que tiveram lugar no contexto latino-americano nas décadas 1960 e 1970.Palavras-chave: Guatemala, Guerra fria, exílio político, anticomunismo.Anotaciones sobre la intervención en Guatemala en 1954: un análisis de sus proyecciones sobre las prácticas sistemáticas de violación a los derechos de asilo y refugio durante la guerra fría.Resumen:La intervención de los Estados Unidos en Guatemala, mediante la acción encubierta de la CIA que resultó en la deposición del presidente Jacobo Arbenz en junio de 1954, fue un episodio crucial de la guerra fría, cuyas proyecciones trascienden su coyuntura histórica específica. El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar, en base a investigaciones recientes, episodios de vigilancia y detención arbitraria de personas que buscaron asilo en las representaciones diplomáticas latino-americanas en la ciudad de Guatemala como consecuencia del golpe de estado de 1954. De manera semejante, las prácticas represivas adoptadas a nivel regional contra los asilados guatemaltecos serán examinadas como importante antecedente histórico de las violaciones sistemáticas a los derechos humanos de refugiados políticos que tuvieron lugar en el contexto latino-americano en las décadas del 1960 y 1970.Palabras clave: Guatemala, Guerra fría, exilio político, anticomunismo.Notes about the Intervention in Guatemala in 1954: an analysis of their projections on the systematic practice of violation of the asylum and refuge rights during the Cold War.Abstract:The United States intervention in Guatemala, accomplished through CIA covert operation that resulted in the overthrow of President Jacobo Arbenz in june 1954, was a crucial cold war episode, with projections which go beyond its specific historical juncture. This article´s objective is to analyse recently published research findings on episodes of surveillance and arbitrary detention of persons who seeked asylum in diplomatic missions in Guatemala City in the aftermath of the 1954 coup d´état. In a similar way, repressive practices adopted on the regional level against Guatemalan asylees shall be examined as an important historical precedent for systematic human rights violations of political refugees in Latin America in the 1960´s and 1970´s. Key words: Guatemala, Cold war, political exile, anticommunism.
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ARIYAMA, HIROYUKI. "Two species of Ceradocus collected from coastal areas in Japan, with description of a new species (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Maeridae)." Zootaxa 4658, no. 2 (2019): 297–316. http://dx.doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4658.2.5.
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Two species of the amphipod genus Ceradocus Costa, 1853 were collected from coastal areas in Japan: C. kiiensis sp. nov. from Wakayama Prefecture and C. laevis Oleröd, 1970 from Okinawa Prefecture. Both of the species share the asymmetrical male gnathopod 2, the larger male gnathopod 2 with strongly oblique palm and the uropod 3 with wide rami. Ceradocus kiiensis also has the palm with a single excavation in the larger male gnathopod 2 and the pleonites 1–3 with many dorsal teeth. This new species can be distinguished from its congeners by the absence of the anterodistal projection on the basis of the larger male gnathopod 2, the presence of the posterior teeth on the pleonal epimera 1–2, and others. Ceradocus laevis is characterized by the palm having triangular and small trapezoidal projections in the larger male gnathopod 2, the pereopods 5–7 bases with rounded posterodistal lobe, the pleonites and urosomites lacking dorsal teeth, and the pleonal epimera 1–2 without posterior teeth. This species can be easily distinguished from C. kiiensis by the smooth dorsal margins of the pleonites. A key to Ceradocus species in Japan is provided.
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Montecelos-Zamora, Yalina, Tereza Cavazos, Thomas Kretzschmar, Enrique Vivoni, Gerald Corzo, and Eugenio Molina-Navarro. "Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba." Water 10, no. 9 (2018): 1135. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10091135.
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The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied for the first time in Cuba to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Cauto River basin. The model was calibrated (and validated) for the 2001–2006 (2007–2010) period at a monthly timescale in two subbasins La Fuente and Las Coloradas, representative of middle and upper sections of the Cauto basin; the calibrated models showed good performance. The output available for the regional climate Model RegCM4.3 was used to force the calibrated SWAT models to simulate a baseline (1970–2000) period and near-future (2015–2039) hydrologic regimes under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The future projections suggest regional increases of 1.5 °C in mean annual temperature and a 38% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the subbasins. These changes translate to possible reductions in the annual streamflow of up to 61% with respect to the baseline period, whereas the aquifer recharge in the basin is expected to decrease up to 58%, with a consequent reduction of groundwater flow, especially during the boreal summer wet season. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.
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Garner, Andra J., Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, et al. "Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 45 (2017): 11861–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1703568114.
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The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.
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Inghelmann, Riccardo, Enrico Grande, Silvia Francisci, et al. "Regional Estimates of Stomach Cancer Burden in Italy." Tumori Journal 93, no. 4 (2007): 367–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030089160709300407.
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Aims and background Stomach cancer still remains one of the most frequent tumors in Italy and Europe. The aim of this paper is to present estimates for stomach cancer mortality, incidence and prevalence over the period 1970-2010 for the Italian regions and for Italy as a whole. Methods Estimated figures for incidence, prevalence and mortality were obtained by using the MIAMOD method. Starting from the knowledge of mortality in the period 1970-1999 and of relative survival in the period of diagnosis 1978-1994, we derived incidence and prevalence estimates and projections up to the year 2010 by means of a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival at the regional and national levels was modelled on the basis of published survival data from the Italian cancer registries. Results Incidence and mortality trends for both sexes decrease by about 60% during the estimation period 1970-2010. Both indicators show a 2-fold male/female ratio all over the country, and a similar gender time trend. The incidence and mortality in the North and Center of the country are estimated to be higher and to decrease more steeply than those in the South, both for men and women. A total of around 13,000 incident cases, 57,000 prevalent cases, and 8,000 deaths are estimated to have occurred in Italy in 2005. Conclusions The incidence and mortality trends are estimated to decline during the entire period 1970-2010, with different slopes between northern-central and southern regions. The incidence and mortality are quite similar among Italian regions, showing that the risk of developing the disease diminishes and is becoming more homogeneous than in the past decades all over the country.
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Grande, Enrico, Riccardo Inghelmann, Silvia Francisci, et al. "Regional Estimates of Colorectal Cancer Burden in Italy." Tumori Journal 93, no. 4 (2007): 352–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030089160709300405.
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Aims and background In terms of new diagnoses, colorectal cancer is one of the most important cancers in Italy and worldwide. The aim of this paper is to present estimates of the mortality, incidence and prevalence of colorectal cancer in Italy at a national and regional scale over the period 1970-1999, with projections up to 2010. Methods The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence estimates from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modelled to obtain regional and national estimates of colorectal cancer survival. Results Different incidence patterns were observed for men and women, especially in the projection period: the national age-standardized rate is estimated to increase throughout the study period 1970-2010 for men from 30 to 70 per 100,000, and to stabilize from the end of the 1990s for women at around 38 per 100,000. A stabilization or a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence rates is expected in most regions for women and in most northern-central regions for men. The most critical situation is estimated among men for southern regions, where the rise in incidence is accompanied by a dramatic increase in mortality. About 46,000 incident cases, 267,000 prevalent cases, and 16,000 deaths from colorectal cancer are estimated in Italy for the year 2005. Conclusions Despite the risk reduction estimated in most northern-central regions among men and in the large majority of regions among women, the colorectal cancer burden in Italy is expected to remain relevant in the next years. Prospects for reducing this burden appear mainly connected to the adoption of prevention policies aimed at increasing the awareness of the risk related to dietary habits and lifestyles and at promoting colorectal cancer screening.
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Song, Young Hoon, Eun-Sung Chung, and Mohammed Sanusi Shiru. "Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in GCMs Using Multiple Bias Correction Methods under Different RCPs." Sustainability 12, no. 18 (2020): 7508. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12187508.
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This study quantified the uncertainties in historical and future average monthly precipitation based on different bias correction methods, General Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), projection periods, and locations within the study area (i.e., the coastal and inland areas of South Korea). The GCMs were downscaled using deep learning, random forest, and nine quantile mapping bias correction methods for 22 gauge stations in South Korea. Data from the Korean Meteorology Administration (1970–2005) were used as the reference data in this study. Two statistical measures, the standard deviation and interquartile range, were used to quantify the uncertainties. The probability distribution density was used to assess the similarity/variation in rainfall distributions. For the historical period, the uncertainty in the selection of bias correction methods was greater than that in the selection of GCMs, whereas the opposite pattern was observed for the projection period. The projection period had the lowest level of uncertainty in the selection of RCP scenarios, and for the future, the uncertainly related to the time period was slightly lower than that for the other sources but was much greater than that for the RCP selection. In addition, it was clear that the level of uncertainty of inland areas is much lower than that of coastal areas. The uncertainty in the selection of the GCMs was slightly greater than that in the selection of the bias correction method. Therefore, the uncertainty in the selection of coastal areas was intermediate between the selection of bias correction methods and GCMs. This paper contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainties in climate change projections arising from various sources.
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Brown, A. I., G. P. Hammond, C. I. Jones, and F. J. Rogers. "GREENING THE UK BUILDING STOCK: Historic Trends and Low Carbon Futures 1970-2050." Transactions of the Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineering 33, no. 1 (2009): 89–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/tcsme-2009-0009.
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Historic trends and future projections of energy use and carbon dioxide emissions associated with the United Kingdom building stock are analysed for the period 1970-2050. Energy use in housing is found to rise at a slightly slower rate than the increase in household numbers, which totalled some 25.5 million in 2000. It appears feasible to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the UK domestic building stock by more than 65% by 2050. But this would require a significant take-up of energy saving measures and the adoption of various low or zero carbon (LZC) energy technologies. Non-domestic buildings consisted of some 1.98 million premises in 2000. Anticipated changes in the UK Building Regulations will lead to reductions in energy use and carbon emissions of up to 17% and 12% respectively for 2010 standard buildings. Improvements in the non-domestic building stock and industrial processing could lead to a reduction of nearly 59% in CO2 emissions, via the adoption of LZC energy technologies. Thus, the potential for ‘greening' the UK building stock – making it environmentally benign - is large, but the measures needed to achieve this would present a significant challenge to the UK government, domestic householders, and industry in the broadest sense.
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Kornetis, Kostis. "PROJECTIONS ONTO THE PAST: MEMORIES OF DEMOCRATIZATION IN SPAIN, GREECE, AND PORTUGAL DURING THE GREAT RECESSION*." Mobilization: An International Quarterly 24, no. 4 (2019): 511–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.17813/1086-671x-24-4-512.
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This article engages the argument that the 2008–2009 Great Recession forced a revisiting of the period of transitions in Spain, Greece, and Portugal as “political masterpieces,” especially among a younger generation of activists. It argues that this radical reevaluation turned the conflicting generational recollections of the past into pivotal components of present political contestation. Moreover, it shows how the redeeming power of the transitions animates the political, cultural, and public discourse of young politicized people who, although (or precisely because) they have not experienced these events directly, keep returning to them to make sense of contemporary politics. The complex relations between past and present are analyzed using oral histories with the so-called Generation 2 of the transitions, namely people who have only “projective memories” of these events during the 1970. Especially relevant is the effects of their participation in the 2011 indignados movements.
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Shundeev, A. S., D. D. Zaslavskii, and S. I. Pekhterev. "Reducing the Documents Embeddings Dimension Using Principal Component Analysis." Programmnaya Ingeneria 12, no. 1 (2021): 48–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.17587/prin.12.48-57.
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In this paper, a number of issues related to the use of word embeddings for solving the problem of classifying text documents were considered. Models of word embeddings have been a popular object of theoretical research since the mid-1970. The development of these models, including the transition from count based models to predictive ones, was stimulated by the need to reduce the large computational costs arising from their practical use. This problem is still relevant today. When solving practical problems, one often has to abandon the independent construction of word embeddings and use ready-made solutions. As a result, the problem of post-processing of the existing word embeddings, for example, reducing its dimension, becomes urgent. Recently, a number of works have appeared in which an unusual approach to using the principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of word embeddings has been investigated. In this approach, projections are removed not on the last, but on the first principal components. It turns out that in relation to the problems of determining the word similarity and word analogies, this approach can increase the accuracy of their solution. Experimental studies, the results of which are presented in this work, show that this effect is not observed in solving the problem of document classification. Removing projections to the first directions leads to a decrease in the classification accuracy. At the same time, the traditional approach, which removes projections to the last principal directions, in most cases gives the best result.
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Tory, K. J., S. S. Chand, R. A. Dare, and J. L. McBride. "An Assessment of a Model-, Grid-, and Basin-Independent Tropical Cyclone Detection Scheme in Selected CMIP3 Global Climate Models." Journal of Climate 26, no. 15 (2013): 5508–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00511.1.
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Abstract A novel tropical cyclone (TC) detection technique designed for coarse-resolution models is tested and evaluated. The detector, based on the Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP), is applied to a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.5 (CSIRO-Mk3.5); Max Planck Institute ECHAM5 (MPI-ECHAM5); and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, versions 2.0 (GFDL CM2.0) and 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1)], and the combined performance of the model and detector is assessed by comparison with observed TC climatology for the period 1970–2000. Preliminary TC frequency projections are made using the three better-performing models by comparing the detected TC climatologies between the late twentieth and late twenty-first centuries. Very reasonable TC formation climatologies were detected in CSIRO-Mk3.5, MPI-ECHAM5, and GFDL CM2.1 for most basins, with the exception of the North Atlantic, where a large underdetection was present in all models. The GFDL CM2.0 model was excluded from the projection study because of a systematic underdetection in all basins. The above detection problems have been reported in other published studies, which suggests model rather than detector limitations are mostly responsible. This study demonstrates that coarse-resolution climate models do in general produce TC-like circulations with realistic geographical and seasonal distributions detectable by the OWZP TC detector. The preliminary projection results are consistent with the published literature, based on higher-resolution studies, of a global reduction of TCs between about 6% and 20%, with a much larger spread of results (about +20% to −50%) in individual basins.
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Argüeso, D., J. M. Hidalgo-Muñoz, S. R. Gámiz-Fortis, M. J. Esteban-Parra, and Y. Castro-Díez. "High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitation over Spain using the WRF model (2070-2099 versus 1970-1999)." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 117, no. D12 (2012): n/a. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011jd017399.
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Seong, Chounghyun, and Venkataramana Sridhar. "Hydroclimatic variability and change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed." Journal of Water and Climate Change 8, no. 2 (2016): 254–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2016.008.
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The Chesapeake Bay (CB) Watershed is undergoing changes in climate, hydrology, and land use. The assessment of hydroclimatic impacts is important for both water quantity and quality management. This study evaluated the hydroclimatic changes using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) data which provided statistically downscaled daily precipitation and temperature. An increase of 3.0 to 5.2 °C in temperature was projected between 2070 and 2099 when compared with the baseline period of 1970–1999. However, precipitation projections showed a modest increase with an average of 5.2 and 8.4% between 2070 and 2099. The northern part of the CB Watershed was expected to be wetter and warmer than the southern region. The average changes in flow were projected between −12 and 6% and −22 to 5% between 2070 and 2099, respectively, under two scenarios. Minimum changes in winter and highest flow reduction in fall with a high degree of variability among the ensemble members was expected. Greater decrease in flows in the northern region of the CB Watershed was projected. Despite the wetter future projections at the end of the century and uncertainties in our evapotranspiration (ET) estimation, reductions in the land surface runoff partly were attributed to increased ET.
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Lewellyn, Conor, and Bridget Wadzuk. "Evaluating the Risk-Based Performance of Bioinfiltration Facilities under Climate Change Scenarios." Water 11, no. 9 (2019): 1765. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11091765.
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Many communities throughout the world are utilizing green infrastructure practices to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change. While some areas of the world are anticipating droughts, other areas are preparing for an increased flood risk, due to changes in precipitation volume and intensity. Cities rely on practices such as bioinfiltration to sustainably capture stormwater runoff and provide resilience against climate change. As cities aim to increase resilience and decrease climate-change-associated risks, a greater understanding of these risks is needed. A risk-based approach was used to evaluate bioinfiltration design and performance. Climate projections from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used to create near-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2050–2079) climate datasets for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). Both near-term and long-term climate models demonstrated increased precipitation and daily temperatures, similar to other areas in the U.S. Northeast, Midwest, Great Plains, and Alaska. Climate data were used to model bioinfiltration practices using continuous simulation hydrologic models. Overflow events and cumulative risk increased from bioinfiltration sites when compared to the baseline scenario (1970–1999). This study demonstrates how to apply a risk-based approach to bioinfiltration design using climate projections and provides recommendations to increase resilience in bioinfiltration design.
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Andrys, Julia, Jatin Kala, and Thomas J. Lyons. "Regional climate projections of mean and extreme climate for the southwest of Western Australia (1970–1999 compared to 2030–2059)." Climate Dynamics 48, no. 5-6 (2016): 1723–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3169-5.
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Lorek, Kenneth S., and G. Lee Willinger. "Multi-Step-Ahead Quarterly Cash-Flow Prediction Models." Accounting Horizons 25, no. 1 (2011): 71–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/acch.2011.25.1.71.
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SYNOPSIS: We provide new empirical evidence supportive of the Brown-Rozeff ARIMA model as a candidate univariate statistically based expectation model for multi-period-ahead projections of quarterly cash flows. It provides 1- through 20-step-ahead projections of quarterly cash flows that are significantly more accurate than those generated by the premier multivariate quarterly time-series, disaggregated-accrual regression model popularized by Lorek and Willinger (1996). We also find that both quarterly earnings and quarterly cash flow from operations are modeled by the same Brown-Rozeff ARIMA structure, although the autoregressive and seasonal moving-average parameters of the quarterly earnings model are significantly larger than those of the cash-flow prediction model. This finding is consistent with Beaver (1970) and Dechow and Dichev (2002), among others, who argue that accounting accruals induce incremental amounts of serial correlation in the quarterly earnings time series vis-a`-vis the time series of quarterly cash flows. Such findings may be of interest to analysts who wish to derive multi-step-ahead cash-flow predictions, and accounting researchers attempting to adopt a statistical proxy for the market’s expectation of quarterly cash flows. Finally, we propose a forecasting schema by which statistically based cash-flow forecasts are adjusted upwards or downwards via qualitative assessments regarding the economy, industry, and firm by analysts employing fundamental financial analysis.
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Emanuel, Kerry, Susan Solomon, Doris Folini, Sean Davis, and Chiara Cagnazzo. "Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity." Journal of Climate 26, no. 7 (2013): 2288–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00242.1.
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Abstract Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized.
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Risbey, James S., Stephan Lewandowsky, John R. Hunter, and Didier P. Monselesan. "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373, no. 2055 (2015): 20140463. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0463.
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We examine a series of betting strategies on the transient response of greenhouse warming, expressed by changes in 15-year mean global surface temperature from one 15-year period to the next. Over the last century, these bets are increasingly dominated by positive changes (warming), reflecting increasing greenhouse forcing and its rising contribution to temperature changes on this time scale. The greenhouse contribution to 15-year trends is now of a similar magnitude to typical naturally occurring 15-year trends. Negative 15-year changes (decreases) have not occurred since about 1970, and are still possible, but now rely on large, and therefore infrequent, natural variations. Model projections for even intermediate warming scenarios show very low likelihoods of obtaining negative 15-year changes over the coming century. Betting against greenhouse warming, even on these short time scales, is no longer a rational proposition.
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Coles, Steve L., Keisha D. Bahr, Ku’ulei S. Rodgers, et al. "Evidence of acclimatization or adaptation in Hawaiian corals to higher ocean temperatures." PeerJ 6 (August 7, 2018): e5347. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.5347.
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Ocean temperatures have been accelerating at an alarming rate mainly due to anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. This has led to an increase in the severity and duration of coral bleaching events. Predicted projections for the state of reefs do not take into account the rates of adaptation or acclimatization of corals as these have not as yet been fully documented. To determine any possible changes in thermal tolerances, manipulative experiments were conducted to precisely replicate the initial, pivotal research defining threshold temperatures of corals nearly five decades ago. Statistically higher calcification rates, survivorship, and lower mortality were observed inMontipora capitata, Pocillopora damicornis, andLobactis scutariain the present study at 31 °C compared to the original 1970 findings. First whole colony mortality was also observed to occur sooner in 1970 than in 2017 inM. capitata(3 d vs. 15 d respectively),L. scutaria(3 d vs. 17 d), and inP. damicornis(3 d vs. 13 d). Additionally, bleaching occurred sooner in 1970 compared to the 2017 experiment across species. Irradiance was an important factor during the recovery period for mortality but did not significantly alter calcification. Mortality was decreased by 17% with a 50% reduction in irradiance during the recovery period. These findings provide the first evidence of coral acclimatization or adaptation to increasing ocean temperatures for corals collected from the same location and using close replication of the experiment conducted nearly 50 years earlier. An important factor in this increased resistance to elevated temperature may be related to removal of the discharge of treated sewage into Kāne‘ohe Bay and resulting decrease in nitrification and eutrophication. However, this level of increased temperature tolerance may not be occurring rapidly enough to escape the projected increased intensity of bleaching events, as evidenced by the recent 2014 and 2015 high coral mortality in Hawai‘i (34%) and in the tropics worldwide.
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Hagg, Wilfried, Elisabeth Mayr, Birgit Mannig, et al. "Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan." Water 10, no. 11 (2018): 1513. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10111513.
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The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.
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Goodwin, Beth A., and Carl A. Huether. "Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States, and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002." Prenatal Diagnosis 7, no. 4 (1987): 261–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pd.1970070406.
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CHAMPARNAUD, J. M., and F. COULON. "ENUMERATING NONDETERMINISTIC AUTOMATA FOR A GIVEN LANGUAGE WITHOUT CONSTRUCTING THE CANONICAL AUTOMATON." International Journal of Foundations of Computer Science 16, no. 06 (2005): 1253–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129054105003790.
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Our aim is to enumerate all NFAs (nondeterministic finite automata) that recognize a given regular language [Formula: see text]. More precisely, we produce a set 𝔸 of automata such that each automaton A recognizing [Formula: see text] appears in 𝔸 up to the merging of some states and the addition of some transitions, that is, there is a surjective morphism that maps A onto an automaton of 𝔸. We provide a common theoretical framework, based on morphism properties, to previous works of Kameda and Weiner (1970), and of Sengoku (1992), whose issue is the minimization of NFAs. Our paper gives two incomparable enumeration techniques. Both proceed by enumerating a specific class of grid covers of the automaton map. The first one is related to the canonical automaton introduced by Carrez. The second one is based on new outcomes related to the relationship between grid covers and their projections.
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Heim, Johannes, Hermann Keupdjio, Zoe Wai-Man Lam, Adriana Osa-Gómez, Sonja Thoma, and Martina Wiltschko. "Intonation and Particles as Speech Act Modifiers: A Syntactic Analysis." Studies in Chinese Linguistics 37, no. 2 (2016): 109–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/scl-2016-0005.
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AbstractThis study investigates how discourse particles and intonation contribute to the modification of speech act. In particular, it focuses on the interplay between the speaker’s and the addressee’s commitment toward the proposition in assertions, biased questions, and requests for confirmation. A syntactic analysis is proposed, in which speaker commitment and call on addressee are represented as two functional projections of the speech act structure. Data from nontonal (Canadian English) and tonal languages (Cantonese and Medumba) are analyzed for cross-linguistic comparison. In Canadian English, the particle “eh” and rising intonation are associated with speaker commitment and call on addressee, respectively. In Cantonese, a single particle associates with these. In Medumba, the two positions are occupied by two distinct particles. This neo-performative approach toward speech act structure differs from Ross’s 1970 original insight by positing a high functional layer called grounding, rather than a higher matrix clause of the familiar type.
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Krylenko, I., Yu Motovilov, E. Antokhina, V. Zhuk, and G. Surkova. "Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 368 (May 6, 2015): 156–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015.
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Abstract. Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature.
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Altan-Wojtas, Paula. "Microscopy and Imaging of Foods — The Whys and Hows." Microscopy Today 12, no. 1 (2004): 14–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1551929500051762.
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The use of microscopy and imaging methods to study foods is not a new idea. It has been going on since the first light microscopes were developed (White, 1970; White and Shenton, 1974-1984). Microscopy has been used to determine the quality, purity and safety of foodstuffs by detecting and identifying contaminants in foods. The short article by Stephen Carmichael in the May/June 2002 issue of Microscopy Today has again brought food microscopy into the spotlight. The article provided an opportunity to discuss present applications of food microscopy and to give some projections of where it is headed in the future. The reader may not realize that microscopy and imaging methods are used extensively by most major food companies worldwide for product development, quality control, and trouble shooting (Allan-Wojtas, 1999). Often, this work cannot be published because it contains proprietary information. The application of microscopy to food structure analysis is one of the best kept secrets in microscopy today.
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Kannus, P., M. Palvanen, S. Niemi, J. Parkkari, and M. Jrvinen. "Increasing number and incidence of low-trauma ankle fractures in elderly people: finnish statistics during 1970–2000 and projections for the future." Bone 31, no. 3 (2002): 430–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s8756-3282(02)00832-3.
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Kannus, Pekka, Mika Palvanen, Seppo Niemi, Jari Parkkari, Markku Järvinen, and Ilkka Vuori. "Osteoporotic fractures of the proximal humerus in elderly Finnish persons: Sharp increase in 1970-1998 and alarming projections for the new millennium." Acta Orthopaedica Scandinavica 71, no. 5 (2000): 465–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000164700317381144.
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Kannus, P., M. Palvanen, S. Niemi, J. Parkkari, and M. Järvinen. "Epidemiology of Osteoporotic Pelvic Fractures in Elderly People in Finland: Sharp Increase in 1970-1997 and Alarming Projections for the New Millennium." Osteoporosis International 11, no. 5 (2000): 443–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001980070112.
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Firth, Rebecca, Jatin Kala, Thomas J. Lyons, and Julia Andrys. "An Analysis of Regional Climate Simulations for Western Australia’s Wine Regions—Model Evaluation and Future Climate Projections." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56, no. 7 (2017): 2113–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-16-0333.1.
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AbstractThe Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is evaluated as a regional climate model for the simulation of climate indices that are relevant to viticulture in Western Australia’s wine regions at a 5-km resolution under current and future climate. WRF is driven with ERA-Interim reanalysis for the current climate and three global climate models (GCMs) for both current and future climate. The focus of the analysis is on a selection of climate indices that are commonly used in climate–viticulture research. Simulations of current climate are evaluated against an observational dataset to quantify model errors over the 1981–2010 period. Changes to the indices under future climate based on the SRES A2 emissions scenario are then assessed through an analysis of future (2030–59) minus present (1970–99) climate. Results show that when WRF is driven with ERA-Interim there is generally good agreement with observations for all of the indices although there is a noticeable negative bias for the simulation of precipitation. The results for the GCM-forced simulations were less consistent. Namely, while the GCM-forced simulations performed reasonably well for the temperature indices, all simulations performed inconsistently for the precipitation index. Climate projections showed significant warming for both of the temperature indices and indicated potential risks to Western Australia’s wine growing regions under future climate, particularly in the north. There was disagreement between simulations with regard to the projections of the precipitation indices and hence greater uncertainty as to how these will be characterized under future climate.
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Wardell-Johnson, Grant W., Michael Calver, Neil Burrows, and Giovanni Di Virgilio. "Integrating rehabilitation, restoration and conservation for a sustainable jarrah forest future during climate disruption." Pacific Conservation Biology 21, no. 3 (2015): 175. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/pc15026.
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The environment of the northern jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest (NJF) of Mediterranean-climate, south-western Australia is characterised by deeply weathered soil profiles and low fertility, reflecting long geological stasis. This fire-prone environment is characterised by primary forests of low productivity but high biomass. Since European settlement (1829), the NJF has been structurally transformed by deforestation and resource extraction, including logging and mining (principally for bauxite). Rainfall has declined by 15–20% since 1970, with projections for further decline. A new hydrological regime foreshadows regolith drying, with a changed climate leading to more unplanned, intense fires. Declining productivity, coupled with rehabilitation more suited to a wetter climate, places stress on tree growth and compromises biodiversity. Thus, ecological disruption likely follows from interactions between climate change and historical exploitation. The complex challenges posed by these interactions require multifaceted and novel solutions. We argue that under drying conditions, maintenance of productivity while conserving biodiversity can best be achieved by changing the focus of rehabilitation to the understorey. This would coincide with protecting and restoring surrounding unmined forest with emphasis on the overstorey. Presently, state-of-the-science rehabilitation seeks to restore jarrah forest, following bauxite mining. This goal is unlikely to be achievable across extensive areas under climate change projections. Rather, a focus on restoring understorey following mining would provide a more positive water balance in the wider forest matrix. This approach recognises loss of forest values through mining, but anticipates conservation of biodiversity and important elements of forest structure by minimising ecologically unacceptable disturbance to surrounding forest.
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Légaré, Jacques. "Les religieuses du Canada : leur évolution numérique entre 1965 et 1980." Articles 10, no. 1 (2005): 7–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/055437ar.
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L'enquête réalisée en 1965 par la Conférence religieuse canadienne (section féminine) auprès des communautés religieuses du pays a apporté des précisions sur une situation de fait que l'on soupçonnait déjà, mais dont l'ampleur et le rythme d'évolution donnaient lieu à une marge considérable de spéculations. L'analyse de ce recensement des religieuses tentait de définir leur situation actuelle à partir de divers critères tels que l'âge, les origines familiales, les qualifications académiques, etc. . . . De plus, à l'aide de quelques questions rétrospectives, il fut possible d'estimer l'évolution qu'a subie cette population au cours de la période 1940-1964, ainsi que les tendances qui se dessinent en ce qui concerne son renouvellement et sa structure future. Les deux phénomènes les plus caractéristiques de la situation actuelle chez les religieuses se sont révélés être le vieillissement incontestable de cette population et la baisse générale du recrutement, baisse qui se manifeste depuis 1940, mais qui s'est accentuée entre 1960 et 1965.2 À preuve ce commentaire des analystes : « Nous n'avons pu établir de projections scientifiques — pour le problème du recrutement cela est d'ailleurs difficile — mais la diminution très forte entre 1960 (1,981 entrées au noviciat) et 1964 (1,377) donne tout lieu de croire que ce phénomène de baisse continuera quelques années avant de se stabiliser ». Devant de telles conclusions, il nous a semblé intéressant de tenter de tracer, à partir des données rassemblées par cette enquête, un schéma de l'évolution démographique future des religieuses canadiennes. L'entreprise n'est pas simple. Tout un ensemble de facteurs sociaux complexes et difficilement prévisibles peuvent venir bouleverser nos projections, si méticuleusement eussent-elles été préparées : c'est là un risque qui menace fort souvent le démographe qui ose prétendre soulever le voile de l'avenir. Dans le cas présent, nous croyons ce risque raisonnable et comme pouvant être utile. En effet le souci de ceux qui ordonnent ces enquêtes auprès des membres de communautés religieuses est en général de vouloir connaître non seulement le présent mais aussi un peu l'avenir. L'analyse de l'enquête faite au Canada n'a pas été très explicite sur ce sujet. Il en est d'ailleurs de même pour l'analyse de l'enquête qui avait été demandée par la Commission épiscopale du clergé et des séminaires de France. Pour ce faire, il faut la connaissance de certaines techniques de prévisions démographiques et, il faut l'admettre, un peu d'audace. Ceci dit, nous croyons valables les calculs que nous avons effectués, calculs qui nous permettent, à partir de l'évolution passée et de certaines hypothèses, d'entrevoir comment évoluera la situation au cours des quinze prochaines années. Notre but est donc d'établir les effectifs globaux et les distributions par groupe d'âges des religieuses canadiennes en 1970, 1975 et 1980, compte tenu de l'évolution récente qui s'est manifestée dans ce groupe. En analyse démographique, toute perspective repose évidemment sur l'analyse des phénomènes de fécondité, de mortalité et de migration de la population concernée. Le lecteur comprendra facilement que l'on doive effectuer pour le cas présent quelques transpositions d'ordre technique: entrée en religion, mortalité et non-persévérance dans les ordres constitueront donc les trois phénomènes à la base de nos perspectives. Avant d'analyser l'évolution passée et future par rapport aux trois phénomènes décrits ci-haut, nous passerons en revue quelques-uns des résultats de l'enquête de 1965, lesquels nous permettront de connaître la situation en l'année de base de nos perspectives.