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Cetlová, Tereza. "Rozhodování spotřebitele v podmínkách rizika." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232778.
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The aim of the thesis is to afford a complex perspective of a parallel development of psychology and economics to the readers. It is suggested, how psychological experiments could be used for the overall enrichment of the classical theory of economics. In the thesis, readers are introduced to the development of economic theories over time, and also to what role a human takes as a personality. Including the thesis is the part engaging in consumer decision process.
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Silva, Filho Darlan Maciel da [UNESP]. "Finanças comportamentais: o comportamento do agente decisório nos cenários de ganhos, perdas, riscos e incertezas." Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/90007.
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silvafilho_dm_me_arafcl.pdf: 714760 bytes, checksum: ea2cad49fd5cf43f5dd3ab6e40dfd07a (MD5)As Finanças Comportamentais, com base em estudos empíricos, procuram demonstrar que os investidores nem sempre se mantêm racionais ao tomarem decisões que envolvem riscos, conforme argumentava a Teoria Neoclássica de Finanças. Este trabalho tem como objetivo contextualizar o recente campo de estudo e replicar a investigação empírica do artigo seminal de Kahneman e Tversky (1979) que aborda a Teoria do Prospecto e que constitui a base de Finanças Comportamentais. Simultaneamente, serão comparados os resultados da pesquisa com os de Kahneman e Tversky (1979) com os obtidos nesse estudo. Os resultados encontrados nesta população específica mostram similaridade, e que mesmo com populações e períodos diferentes, os indivíduos tendem a se comportar de maneira, na maioria das vezes, contraria ao que argumentava a Teoria Neoclássica de Finanças
Basing on empirical studies, Behavioral Finance seek to demonstrate that investors not always have a rational posture when it comes to making decisions that might involve some sort of risk, according to Neoclassical Finance Theory. This paper aims to contextualize recent studies and respond to the empirical investigation on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) seminal article, which approaches The Prospect Theory and constitutes the basis for Behavioral Finance. The results of the investigation will simultaneously be compared to those of Kahneman and Tversky (1979). The results, which have been specifically found in this population, show that the results of the samples are similar, and even in different populations and different periods, individuals tend to behave, more often than not, just as opposed to the arguments of the Neoclassical Finance Theory
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Schmook, Renate. "Prospect Theorie - Determinanten der Entscheidung : Anzahl der Entscheidungen, Risikobeurteilung, Ergebniserwartung und Kontrollillusion als Determinanten des Entscheidungsverhaltens in unterschiedlichen materiellen und immateriellen Kontexten /." Berlin : dissertation.de - Verl. im Internet GmbH, 2004. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/387617310.pdf.
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Butts, Robert Davis. "Fighting for frames or prospects for peace? : building a prospect theory model of ethnic civil war termination." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/42939.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2007.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Vita.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 183-187).
Ethnic civil wars are the most abundant form of large-scale, deadly conflict in the world today, yet the dedicated study of ethnic civil war is relatively new within political science. One empirical observation repeated in the literature is that civil wars are less likely than interstate wars to end in negotiated settlements, and more likely to end in military victory for one side. Recently, scholars have employed expected utility theory and the security dilemma to construct models of how ethnic combatants choose between settling their differences at the bargaining table or on the battlefield. Rooted in the rational choice paradigm, these models draw upon utility calculations and security concerns to describe ethnic combatants' decision processes and explain the low rate of ethnic war settlement. Two problems with these rational choice models, however, are that they cannot account for cases of ethnic war in which combatants elect to continue fighting losing battles when a normatively "rational" settlement is available, and that they do not seem to accurately describe the decision-making behavior of ethnic combatants. In this thesis, I draw upon the principles of prospect theory, a descriptive theory of choice under conditions of risk and uncertainty, to construct a psychological model of ethnic war termination. I argue that ethnic combatants do not behave as rational choice theories suggest; rather, they choose to settle or fight by framing the possible outcomes as gains or losses relative to a subjective reference point. I analyze my theory by comparing it to three prominent rational choice models: Mason and Fett's expected utility theory, Walter's credible commitment theory, and Kaufmann's demographic separation theory. I then perform a first-brush test of my theory by applying all four models to two case studies, the Ethiopian-Eritrean War and the Bosnian Civil War, to determine which model best explains the behavior of the combatants.
(cont) I then perform a first-brush test of my theory by applying all four models to two case studies, the Ethiopian-Eritrean War and the Bosnian Civil War, to determine which model best explains the behavior of the combatants. I find that prospect theory provides added value over the rational choice models. I then review the implications of my prospect theory model for humanitarian interventions into ethnic conflict. Finally, I conclude by suggesting potential directions for future research in this area.
by Robert Davis Butts.
S.M.
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Marinho, Luís Filipe Carvalheiro. "Finanças comportamentais: prospect theory." Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/7991.
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Mestrado em GestãoO presente estudo aborda a temática das Finanças Comportamentais. O seu principal objectivo é replicar para Portugal a investigação empírica desenvolvida por Kahneman e Tversky (1979), tentando perceber se se verificam as mesmas conclusões numa realidade cultural e conjuntura diferentes. O estudo pretende ainda perceber se as variáveis género, idade e área de formação são factores que influenciam questões relacionadas com perdas e exposição/aversão ao risco. Baseado nas respostas de 1000 inquiridos, concluímos que, também em Portugal, se verificam os efeitos certeza, reflexão e isolamento, corroborando assim os resultados de Kahneman e Tversky (1979). Relativamente à influência de factores como género, idade e área de formação, parece haver indícios de que influenciam de diferentes formas a percepção de aversão à perda dos inquiridos.
This study addresses the issue of Behavioral Finance. Its mais objective is to replicate to Portugal, the empirical research developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), trying to see whether there are the same conclusions in a different conjuncture and cultural reality. The study also aims to understand whether the variables gender, age and formation background are factors that influence issues related to loss aversion. Based on responses from 703 people, we conclude that the certainty, reflection and isolation effects can be witnessed in Portugal, confirming the results of Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Regarding the influence of factors such as gender, age and formation background, there seems to be evidences that those factors can influence the perception of loss aversion of the respondents.
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Sorio, Rossella. "Categorisation et evaluation de l'innovation : approche par la Theorie des prospects appliquée au cas du vin allégé en alcool." Thesis, Montpellier 2, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011MON20120.
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Titre: Categorisation et évaluation de l'innovation :approche par la théorie des prospects appliquée au cas du vin allégé en alcool.Chaque année de très nombreuses innovations sont proposées sur le marché, mais seul un nombre réduit d'entre elles rencontre le succès espéré. Face à ce constat, l'une des explications avancées par la recherche marketing est la difficulté du consommateur à catégoriser un nouveau produit.Ce travail s'insère dans le courant de recherches sur la catégorisation de l'innovation et suggère de tenir compte de l'incertitude qui caractérise ce processus. L'originalité de cette étude est de proposer un lien entre les recherches sur la catégorisation de l'innovation et celles sur la prise de décision en condition d'incertitude. La Théorie des Prospects (Kahneman et Tversky, 1979) en particulier, et l'un de ses principes, celui d'aversion aux pertes, ont fourni un cadre théorique adapté pour tenir compte du caractère d'incertitude de l'innovation. Notre question de recherche a proposé de vérifier si le principe d'aversion aux pertes pouvait s'appliquer pour expliquer comment la modification de certains attributs d'une catégorie provoque la perception d'une rupture et la création d'une nouvelle catégorie de produits par le consommateur.La partie empirique de ce travail a été appliquée dans le domaine le vin, un produit qui traverse une grave crise de consommation. Nous avons retenu une approche expérimentale à travers six études conduites sur des innovations du secteur vinicole. Les résultats ont permis de mettre en évidence le rôle majeur joué par la nature de l'attribut dans la catégorisation ainsi que son influence sur la perception des ruptures d'une catégorie.Du point de vue managérial, les conclusions de ce travail ont pour objet l'efficacité des stratégies d'innovation qui agissent sur les attributs d'un produit et sur leur capacité à différencier une innovation parmi la concurrence. Cette recherche fournit également des suggestions quant au positionnement et à la communication à mettre en place pour faciliter la compréhension d'un nouveau produit et donc son choix par le consommateurTitle: Categorization and evaluation of innovation: a prospect théory approach applied to the case of low alcohol content wine Every year numerous innovations are available on the market but only a small number meet the hoped-for success. Given this fact, one of the explanations offered by marketing research is the difficulty the consumer has to categorize a new product. This work is part of current research on the categorization of innovation and suggests to consider the uncertainty that characterizes this process. Its originality is to propose a link between research on the categorization of innovation and those of decision making under uncertain conditions. Prospect Theory (Kahneman et Tversky, 1979), in particular, and one of its principles, that of loss aversion, this research has provided a theoretical framework adapted to take into account the uncertainty of innovation. Our research question proposes to determine whether the principle of loss aversion can be applied to explain how the modification of certain attributes of a class causes the perception of a break and create a new category of products by the consumer. The empirical part of this work was conducted on wine, a product that is going through a major crisis of consumption. We chose an experimental approach across six studies conducted on innovations in the wine sector. The results were used to highlight the major role played by the nature of the attribute in the categorization and its influence on the perception of breaks in a category. From the managerial point of view, the conclusions of this work relate to the effectiveness of innovation strategies that affect the attributes of a product in their ability to differentiate an innovation from competition. This work also provides suggestions for the positioning and communication set up to facilitate the understanding of a new product and therefore its choice by the consumer
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Leclerc, Philip. "Prospect Theory Preferences in Noncooperative Game Theory." VCU Scholars Compass, 2014. http://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/3522.
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The present work seeks to incorporate a popular descriptive, empirically grounded model of human preference under risk, prospect theory, into the equilibrium theory of noncooperative games. Three primary, candidate definitions are systematically identified on the basis of classical characterizations of Nash Equilibrium; in addition, three equilibrium subtypes are defined for each primary definition, in order to enable modeling of players' reference points as exogenous and fixed, slowly and myopically adaptive, highly flexible and non-myopically adaptive. Each primary equilibrium concept was analyzed both theoretically and empirically; for the theoretical analyses, prospect theory, game theory, and computational complexity theory were all summoned to analysis. In chapter 1, the reader is provided with background on each of these theoretical underpinnings of the current work, the scope of the project is described, and its conclusions briefly summarized. In chapters 2 and 3, each of the three equilibrium concepts is analyzed theoretically, with emphasis placed on issues of classical interest (e.g. existence, dominance, rationalizability) and computational complexity (i.e, assessing how difficult each concept is to apply in algorithmic practice, with particular focus on comparison to classical Nash Equilibrium). This theoretical analysis leads us to discard the first of our three equilibrium concepts as unacceptable. In chapter 4, our remaining two equilibrium concepts are compared empirically, using average-level data originally aggregated from a number of studies by Camerer and Selten and Chmura; the results suggest that PT preferences may improve on the descriptive validity of NE, and pose some interesting questions about the nature of the PT weighting function (2003, Ch. 3). Chapter 5 concludes, systematically summarizes theoretical and empirical differences and similarities between the three equilibrium concepts, and offers some thoughts on future work.
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Löbler, Helge. "Innovationsförderung im Lichte der Prospect Theory." Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-218420.
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Seit Ende der sechziger Jahre wird mit unterschiedlicher Intensität auf die Innovationskrise und auf den Rückgang der Investitionstätigkeit deutscher Unternehmen hingewiesen. Zur Zeit erlebt dieses Thema vor allem im Zusammenhang mit der abnehmenden Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Unternehmen im internationalen Vergleich wieder eine Renaissance. Mangelnde Innovationen und daraus resultierende Investitionslücken führen danach nicht nur zu einem verringerten Wirtschaftswachstum, sondern erschweren darüber hinaus auch den noch immer nicht vollständig bewältigten Strukturwandel, der aber vor dem Hintergrund der zunehmenden Globalisierung gefordert wird. Schließlich wird auf die arbeitsplatzerhaltende oder -schaffende Wirkung von Innovationen hingewiesen.
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Löbler, Helge. "Innovationsförderung im Lichte der Prospect Theory." Universitätsverlag, 2000. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15291.
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Seit Ende der sechziger Jahre wird mit unterschiedlicher Intensität auf die Innovationskrise und auf den Rückgang der Investitionstätigkeit deutscher Unternehmen hingewiesen. Zur Zeit erlebt dieses Thema vor allem im Zusammenhang mit der abnehmenden Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Unternehmen im internationalen Vergleich wieder eine Renaissance. Mangelnde Innovationen und daraus resultierende Investitionslücken führen danach nicht nur zu einem verringerten Wirtschaftswachstum, sondern erschweren darüber hinaus auch den noch immer nicht vollständig bewältigten Strukturwandel, der aber vor dem Hintergrund der zunehmenden Globalisierung gefordert wird. Schließlich wird auf die arbeitsplatzerhaltende oder -schaffende Wirkung von Innovationen hingewiesen.
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Schaffner, Dorothea. "Hedonism versus accuracy : the impact of motivation and emotion on the valuation of multiple gains and losses /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2007. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=016095225&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
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WERNER, JONATAN, and JONAS SJÖBERG. "Prospect Theory in the Automated Advisory Process." Thesis, KTH, Nationalekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-199087.
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With robo-advisors and regulation eventually changing the market conditions of thefinancial advisory industry, traditional advisors will have to adapt to a new world of asset management. Thus, it will be of interest to traditional advisors to further explore the topic of how to automatically evaluate soft aspects such as client preferences and behavior, and transform it into portfolio allocations while retaining stringency and high quality in the process. In this thesis, we show how client preferences and behavioral aspects can be translated into quantitative parameters, suitable for an asset allocation model based on prospect theory. A risk profiler, a type of questionnaire, is found to be an appropriate tool to use in this process. Further, we show that the impact of the parameters on the resulting portfolio allocations is consistent with prospect theory and the preferences of the investor. Finally, we conclude that the optimized portfolio allocation generated by the model suit the investor's preferences.Allteftersom robotrådgivning och regleringar förändrar marknadsvillkoren för finansiellrådgivning kommer traditionella aktörer behöva anpassa sig till helt nya förutsättningar. Därmed är det av intresse för traditionella rådgivare att ytterligare undersöka hur man automatiskt kan utvärdera mjuka faktorer, såsom kunders preferenser och beteende, och omvandla dem till portföljallokeringar samtidigt som man bibehåller stringens och hög kvalitet i processen. I denna avhandling visar vi hur kundpreferenser och beteendemässiga aspekter kan översättas till kvantitativa parametrar för en allokeringsmodell baserad på prospektteori. En riskprofilerare, en typ av frågeformulär, visar sig vara ett bra verktyg att använda i processen. Vidare visas att parametrarnas effekt på de resulterande portföljerna är förenliga med prospektteori och investerarens preferenser. Slutligen drar vi slutsatsen att den optimerade allokeringen passar investerarens preferenser.
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Isak, Ström. "Reference Dependent Preference towards Risk : Evidence from the U.S. Professional Golf Tour." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-388396.
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The standing debate regarding how preferences should be defined is still evident in research today. Are they invariant to current endowment as a neoclassical practitioner would proclaim, or reference dependent as a behavioural economist would state? This theoretical discrepancy, regarding how preferences should be defined, when agents are experienced at what they do is found by List (2003) to be non-existing. In recollection of this notation, this thesis investigates how professional agents adopt risk in reference to a point that a neoclassical practitioner would deem irrational. With data on professional golf players on the U.S professional golf tour during 2013-2018, I find evidence that players respond in terms of what risk they adapt to a normatively irrelevant reference point in accordance to what Prospect Theory would predict. Indicating that even experienced agents have reference dependent preference towards risk. To give what the data proclaim a causal interpretation I adopt a quasi-experimental regression kink design. My estimates indicate a causal kink at my artificial threshold but are proven fragile to bandwidth alterations. Even though a causal claim is questionable, a sensitivity analysis finds evidence that my artificial threshold drives the relationship. Supporting the viewpoint that preferences towards risk are reference dependent and that experience does not eradicate the difference between what we do and what we should do.
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MacQuarrie, Jan Moira. "Russia's wars in Chechnya, insights from prospect theory." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ57190.pdf.
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Xu, Yuemao. "A cross-cultural study of prospect-refuge theory." Thesis, This resource online, 1993. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07212009-040337/.
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Ahmad, Nazneen. "Two essays in business cycle theory." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2005. http://louisdl.louislibraries.org/u?/NOD,271.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of New Orleans, 2005.Title from electronic submission form. "A dissertation ... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Financial Economics"--Dissertation t.p. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Mrozowski, Matthias. "Die Auswirkungen und Grenzen der Prospect Theory im Anlageberatungs- und Privatkundengeschäft bei Schweizer Banken." St. Gallen, 2005. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/02604437001/$FILE/02604437001.pdf.
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Ribeiro, Daniel Pires Campos. "Prospect theory, diversificação ingênua e propensão a risco de especialistas em mercado: evidência empírica no Brasil." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/7839.
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The Prospect Theory is one of the basis of Behavioral Finance and models the investor behavior in a different way than von Neumann and Morgenstern Utility Theory. Behavioral characteristics are evaluated for different control groups, validating the violation of Utility Theory Axioms. Naïve Diversification is also verified, utilizing the 1/n heuristic strategy for investment funds allocations. This strategy causes different fixed and equity allocations, compared to the desirable exposure, given the exposure of the subsample that answered a non constrained allocation question. When compared to non specialists, specialists in finance are less risk averse and allocate more of their wealth on equity.
A Teoria do Prospecto é uma das bases das novas Finanças Comportamentais e tenta modelar de forma distinta da Teoria de Utilidade Esperada o comportamento dos investidores, indo além da racionalidade. A avaliação das características comportamentais identifica padrões de comportamento para grupos de controle, confirmando violações aos axiomas da Teoria da Utilidade Esperada. É verificado também que a alocação de investimentos é compatível com a teoria de diversificação ingênua, utilizando a estratégia heurística 1/n para as alocações em fundos de investimento. Além disso, verificamos que esta estratégia de alocação implica em uma exposição à renda fixa e variável diferente da realmente preferida, quando tomada como parâmetro a alocação de um subgrupo da amostra que revelou a alocação desejada em uma pergunta sem restrições. Quando comparados aos não especialistas em finanças, a propensão a risco e alocação em renda variável dos especialistas em finanças é maior.
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Vesterberg, Mattias. "Prospect Theory : An experimental analysis of decision involving risk." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-55633.
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Fisher, Patricia Jo. "Saving behavior of U.S. households a prospect theory approach /." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1155590726.
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Fisher, Patricia J. "Saving behavior of U.S. households: a prospect theory approach." The Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1155590726.
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Priore, Eduardo Roberto. "Finanças comportamentais: Diferenças da aversão à perda entre alunos de administração de empresas e gestão financeira." Universidade Metodista de São Paulo, 2012. http://tede.metodista.br/jspui/handle/tede/35.
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Previous issue date: 2012-12-19The aim of this dissertation is to analyse loss aversion of the Business Administration and Financial Management students, using the reproduction of the work developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). For that purpose, it was made a field research with these students in a private college in São Paulo city with the application of the original survey template suggested by researchers Kahneman e Tversky (1979), and through the obtained results, Prospect Theory was validated, and it was verified that a group of students have less loss aversion. In this study was made a bibliographic review about the main changes in financial area since 1920 until nowadays highlighting the theory about modern financials, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Behavior Financials, Heuristics and Prospect Theory. The results reveal the existence of certainty, reflex and isolation effects. It was possible to confirm the existence of a different behavior of the Administration students. Among the main conclusions, Administration students are reacting differently of Financial Management students. Academic qualification is proving as a differentiation factor between the two groups. Administration students have a smaller financial base of studies than Financial Magement students and a larger base of studies on other areas. This larger knowledge on financial area didn t bring any differential for Financial Management students, this can be explained by the low age of this population, that have just left high school and has little experience and little understanding of financial market.
O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar aversão à perda dos estudantes do curso de administração de empresas e do curso de tecnologia em gestão financeira, usando a reprodução do trabalho desenvolvido por Kahneman e Tversky (1979). Para tanto, foi realizada uma pesquisa em campo com estudantes em uma faculdade particular, localizada da cidade de São Paulo, onde pode ser aplicado o questionário no modelo original proposto pelos pesquisadores Kahneman e Tversky (1979) e através dos resultados obtidos, foi recriada a teoria dos prospectos e constatou que um grupo de estudantes tem uma aversão à perda menor. Neste trabalho, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica sobre as principais mudanças na área financeira desde 1920 até atualidade, destacando a Teoria sobre Finanças Modernas, a Hipótese de Mercados Eficientes, Finanças Comportamentais, Heurísticas e Teoria do Prospecto. Os resultados apontam para a existência dos efeitos certeza, reflexo e isolamento. Foi possível confirmar a existência de um comportamento diferente para o grupo de estudantes de administração. Dentre as principais conclusões, os estudantes de administração, estão reagindo de forma diferente que os estudantes de gestão financeira. A formação dos respondentes mostrou-se um fator de diferenciação entre os dois grupos. Os alunos de administração tem uma base de estudos sobre finanças menor comparada com os estudantes de gestão financeira e uma base de estudos maior em outras áreas. Esse conhecimento mais abrangente na área financeira, não trouxe nenhum diferencial para os estudantes de gestão financeira, isso pode se dar por essa amostra ser basicamente de pessoas muito jovem que acabaram de sair do ensino médio e com pouca experiência e entendimento do mercado financeiro.
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Aebi, Sara. "Die Macht des Defaults Wie Kaufentscheidungen durch Vorgaben beeinflusst werden /." St. Gallen, 2008. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/02603488002/$FILE/02603488002.pdf.
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Bozkurt, Ahmet. "Multi-criteria Decision Making With Interdependent Criteria Using Prospect Theory." Master's thesis, METU, 2007. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608408/index.pdf.
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In this study, an integrated solution methodology for a general discrete multi-criteria decision making problem is developed based on the well-known outranking method Promethee II. While the methodology handles the existence of interdependency between the criteria, it can also incorporate the prospect theory in order to correctly reflect the decision behavior of the decision maker. A software is also developed for the application of the methodology and some applications are performed and presented.
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Bänninger, Lukas. "Die rationale Entscheidung : eine psychologisch begründete Alternative zur Prospect Theory /." [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2009. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?sys=000281183.
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Adams, Carl. "Dealing with uncertainty within information systems development : applying prospect theory." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.395995.
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Karlsson, Philip, and Olle Karlsson. "Fondförvaltares riskhantering av företagsobligationer : En kvalitativ studie utifrån den kumulativa prospektteorin." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-137344.
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Sammanfattning Beteendeekonomi var fram till år 1979 ett forskningsämne som saknade större motsättningar. Sedan 1700-talet var den allmänna uppfattningen att de beslut som individer fattade under risk var baserade på ett rationellt beteende. Daniel Kahneman och Amos Tverskys åsikt var polär mot den tidigare forskningen och baserat på deras kritik mot föregående studier inom beteendeekonomi presenterade de år 1979 prospektteorin, en teori som senare renderade i nobelpriset. Därefter har teorin utvecklats och år 1992 publicerade Tversky och Kahneman den kumulativa prospektteorin. Den kumulativa prospektteorin (1992) baseras på att individer frångår objektiva sannolikheter och istället utgår beslut från subjektiva preferenser och därav ett irrationellt beteende. Kahneman och Tversky ansåg att rationella individer inte alltid fattar beslut baserat på vilket alternativ som genererar den högsta nyttan utan tidigare erfarenheter och upplevelser resulterar i att individer agerar annorlunda. Ett flertal studier har funnit empiriskt bevis för att den kumulativa prospektteorin är applicerbar på investerare, däribland på förvaltare inom fonder samt inom private banking. Denna studies syfte är att med hjälp av tolv kvalitativa intervjuer erhålla en djupare förståelse huruvida den kumulativa prospektteorin är applicerbar på svenska fondförvaltare med inriktning på företagsobligationer. Samtidigt som allmänheten enligt de intervjuade förvaltarna tenderar att ha bristfälliga kunskaper gällande risker associerade till företagsobligationer anser många journalister, bland annat på grund av de förväntade räntehöjningarna, att obligationsmarknaden befinner sig i en bubbla. Detta gör företagsobligationsmarknaden intressant att undersöka. Studiens slutsats är att förvaltarna, i likhet med den kumulativa prospektteorin, agerar irrationellt vid investeringsbeslut. Detta på grund av att förvaltarna ger indikationer på att de inte enbart investerar i de företagsobligationer som genererar den högsta nyttan, det vill säga avkastning, utan tar stor hänsyn till risker kopplade till företagsobligationer. I likhet med teorin tenderar förvaltarna att hantera likviditetsproblematiken och kreditrisken i enlighet med den kumulativa prospektteorin. Vidare är studiens slutsats att förvaltarna, i kontrast till den kumulativa prospektteorin, övervärderar en redan hög sannolikhet för att ränte- och inflationsrisken ska påverka fonderna negativt. Dessutom ges indikationer att förvaltarna, i likhet med teorin, agerar riskavert mot vinster, men i kontrast till teorin, agerar de också riskavert mot förluster. Detta stöds bland annat genom att majoriteten av förvaltarna agerar med en hög grad av försiktighet samt deras bemötande av kreditrisk.
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Yang, Yi. "Gains and losses in the eyes of the beholder: a comparative study of foreign policy decision making under risk." Texas A&M University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/3078.
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Prospect theory is a descriptive model of individual decision-making under risk (Kahneman and Tversky 1979). The central tenet of prospect theory posits that the risk orientation of decision-makers is affected by the gains vs. losses domains in which they are situated. Individuals are predicted to be risk-averse in the domain of gains and risk seeking in the domain of losses. Although prospect theory made significant contributions to decision theory, it has important limitations. Foremost, as noted by Levy (1997a), prospect theory is not a complete theory of decision-making. Like rational choice theory, prospect theory attempts to explain choices or outcomes, not the processes through which those choices come about (Abelson and Levi 1985, 235).
In response to this limitation of prospect theory, this dissertation intends to address the following set of puzzles:
Do gains vs. losses domains affect the decision processes in foreign policy decision making? If so, in what way will decision strategies change? That is, what strategies are most likely to be employed when the decision maker is in the domain of gains? And, in contrast, what strategies are the most likely to be utilized when the decision maker is in the domain of losses?
To address these questions, I develop and extend prospect theory to account for the impact of gains vs. losses domains on decision strategy selections by decision makers under risk. A set of testable hypotheses are then derived.
To render a robust test of these hypotheses, I employ a cross-national experimental research design, utilizing American subjects first and then replicating the same experiment with subjects in mainland China. In terms of research instrument, I utilize the computerized decision process tracer  the Decision Board Platform. Specifically, the Âmoves of decision makers are recorded by the Decision Board and then used to identify choices and to infer specific decision strategies.
Statistical analysis of the experimental results demonstrates support for the major hypotheses. A decision maker in the domain of gains is more likely to employ a holistic, alternative-based, compensatory, and maximizing decision strategy than is a decision maker in the domain of losses.
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Lundkvist, Jakob, and Nyman Robert Helmeus. "Vilka faktorer och tankesätt ligger till grund för att en stor andel av svenska premiepensionssparare är passiva? : Forskning och statistik visar att kontinuerlig aktiv placering i genomsnitt ger högst avkastning, ändå är en stor andel av premiepensionsspararna passiva." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-24345.
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Denna studie undersöker hur premiepensionssparare tar beslut och vad som ligger till grund för valet att vara aktiv eller passiv i syfte att skapa ökad förståelse och underlätta utformningen av ett ökat beslutsstöd för premiepensionsspararna. Tidigare studier har visat att premiepensionssparare som är kontinuerligt aktiva i sin placering är de som får högst avkastning på sin premiepension, ändå är en stor andel av svenska premiepensionssparare passiva. Studien undersöker några av de faktorer och tankesätt som ligger till grund för att en stor andel av svenska premiepensionssparare inte tar beslut som förväntas enligt teoretiska beslutsteorier som förutsätter rationalitet. Som verktyg för att undersöka och öka förståelsen för premiepensionssparares beslutsfattande används prospect theory som är en alternativ teori till den klassiska ekonomiska teorin om ekonomiskt beslutsfattande. Studien grundar sig i problematiken som uppstår när samhällsutvecklingen allt mer skapar större informationsflöde samtidigt som allt mer beslut och risk läggs på individen. Mängden information ökar samtidigt som det blir allt svårare att filtrera vilken information som är viktig. Genom enkätundersökning visar studien att informationsöverflöd och kunskapsbrist är de främsta orsakerna till valet av passivitet. Studien visar också att en högre kvalitet på den information som ges om fonder och premiepensionsystemet skulle kunna få fler premiepensionssparare att bli aktiva. Studien ger även indikationer om att svenska premiepensionssparare tar beslut enligt prospect theory.
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Lehenkari, M. (Mirjam). "Essays on the effects of gains and losses on the trading behavior of individual investors in the Finnish stock market." Doctoral thesis, University of Oulu, 2009. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789514290459.
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Abstract
The behavior of investors is often at odds with the assumptions of traditional finance theory. Research conducted over the past half-century or so abounds with examples in which the central axioms of traditional theory are systematically violated. One of the most well-established behavioral patterns in this context is the disproportionate tendency of investors to sell stocks that have appreciated in value since purchase (‘winners’) rather than stocks that have declined in value (‘losers’); this phenomenon is known as the disposition effect and most commonly attributed to Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory. The overall aim of this doctoral thesis is to investigate the robustness of this phenomenon, its underlying mechanisms, and its potential implications for individual investors.
The four independent but related essays of this thesis were designed to answer the following research questions: (1) Does the disposition effect ‘survive’ bear markets, in which investors may not be able to realize gains even if they wish to do so? (2) Is there any supporting evidence for prospect theory-based explanation of the disposition effect in the form of other observed behavior consistent with the theory? (3) Is prospect theory the most feasible explanation for the disposition effect? (4) What are the implications of the disposition effect from the point of view of individual investors?
Using comprehensive data covering virtually all trades executed in the Finnish stock market during 1995–2003, this thesis demonstrates the following: (1) As robust as the disposition effect appears to be in light of previous studies, the phenomenon is only partially detected in bear markets. (2) The relationship between prospect theoretic preferences and investor behavior is not easily generalizable to other behavioral patterns besides the disposition effect. (3) In fact, even the relationship between prospect theory and the disposition effect is not as strong as is generally believed. Our results instead suggest an explanation based on escalation of commitment, according to which the disposition effect is caused above all by self-justificatory concerns. (4) Finally, although the disposition effect is generally inconsistent with economic rationality, it does not appear to be detrimental to investment performance.
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Guandalin, Caroline Macedo. "Primordial non-Gaussianities: Theory and Prospects for Observations." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/43/43134/tde-24092018-155602/.
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Early Universe physics leaves distinct imprints on the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and Large-Scale Structure (LSS). The current cosmological paradigm to explain the origin of the structures we see in the Universe today (CMB and LSS), named Inflation, says that the Universe went through a period of accelerated expansion. Density fluctuations that eventually have grown into the temperature fluctuations of the CMB and the galaxies and other structures we see in the LSS come from the quantization of the scalar field (inflaton) which provokes the accelerated expansion. The most simple inflationary model, which contains only one slowly-rolling scalar field with canonical kinetic term in the action, produces a power-spectrum (Fourier transform of the two-point correlation function) approximately scale invariant and an almost null bispectrum (Fourier transform of the three-point correlation function). This characteristic is called Gaussianity, once random fields that follow a normal distribution have all the odd moments null. Yet, more complex inflationary models (with more scalar fields and/or non-trivial kinetic terms in the action, etc) and possible alternatives to inflation have a non-vanishing bispectrum which can be parametrized by a non-linearity parameter f_NL, whose value differs from model to model. In this work we studied the basic ingredients to understand such statements and focused on the observational evidences of this parameters and how the current and upcoming galaxy surveys are able to impose constraints to the value of f_NL with a better accuracy, through the multi-tracer technique, than those obtained by means of CMB measurements.A física do Universo primordial deixa sinais distintos na Radiação Cósmica de Fundo (CMB) e Estrutura em Larga Escala (LSS). O paradigma atual da cosmologia explica a origem das estruturas que vemos hoje (CMB e LSS) através da inflação, teoria que diz que o Universo passou por um período de expansão acelerada. As flutuações de densidade que eventualmente crescem, dando origem às flutuações de temperatura da CMB, às galáxias e outras estruturas que vemos na LSS, provém da quantização do campo escalar (inflaton) que provoca a tal expansão acelerada. O modelo inflacionário mais simples, o qual contém um único campo escalar nas condições de rolamento lento e termo cinético canônico da ação, possui o espectro de potências (transformada de Fourier da função de correlação de dois pontos) aproximadamente invariante de escala e o bispectro (transformada de Fourier da função de correlação de três pontos) aproximadamente nulo. Tal característica é conhecida por Gaussianidade, uma vez que campos aleatórios cuja distribuição é uma normal tem todas as funções de correlação de ordem ímpar nulas. Contudo, modelos inflacionários mais complexos (mais campos escalares, termos cinéticos não-triviais na ação, etc) e alternativas possíveis à inflação possuem um bispectro não nulo, o qual pode ser parametrizado através do parâmetro de não-linearidade f_NL, cujo valor difere de modelo para modelo. Neste trabalho estudamos os ingredientes básicos para entender tais afirmações e focamos nas evidências observacionais desse parâmetro e como os levantamentos de galáxias atuais e futuros podem impor restrições ao valor de f_NL com uma precisão maior, através da técnica de múltiplos traçadores, do que aquelas obtidas com medidas da CMB.
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Mielmann, Marc. "Preiskommunikation im Mobilfunkmarkt." St. Gallen, 2005. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/02607901001/$FILE/02607901001.pdf.
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Maeke, Rebecca D. "Performancemessung von Investmentfonds der Einfluss subjektiver Charakteristika und individueller Steuern der Anleger." Aachen Shaker, 2008. http://d-nb.info/999731548/04.
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Spalt, Oliver. "Stock options as a compensation device: A behavioral approach." [S.l. : s.n.], 2008. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-20210.
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Pinto, Patrycia Scavello Barreto. "O processo de decisão em ambiente contábil sob a ótica da Teoria dos Prospectos." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2012. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=6143.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorNa busca por entender de que forma profissionais de contabilidade estão analisando e repassando informações, o objetivo geral do trabalho é mostrar o processo de decisão em ambiente contábil sob a ótica da Teoria dos Prospectos, buscando demostrar que as decisões, são baseadas principalmente em julgamentos, contribuindo para consciência das imperfeições dos julgamentos e decisões. O objetivo específico é testar de que forma os efeitos Framing, e Certeza podem moldar uma tomada de decisão dentro do ambiente contábil. Sendo uma pesquisa descritiva, aplicou-se questionário estruturado e não disfarçado à profissionais da área de Contabilidade. O questionário foi dividido em dois tipos (I e II), dividindo assim o campo dos ganhos e das perdas. Procurou-se através da análise do resultado dos questionários evidenciar o impactos dos efeitos nesses profissionais. Dentre o resultado, pode-se constatar que de maneira geral as questões que envolvem certeza no campo dos ganhos são as mais procuradas entre os respondentes. É possível identificar a presença do Efeito Framing. Em relação ao gênero, é possível identificar maior impacto do Efeito Framing nos homens que nas mulheres. Os Efeitos Certeza e Pseudocerteza se fazem presentes em ambos os gêneros o que demostra certa cautela frente a tomada de decisão. Através desse estudo buscou-se auxiliar os decisores na tarefa de repensar seus atuais processos de tomada de decisão, por meio da conscientização de que são dotados de uma racionalidade limitada e que seus julgamentos são passivos de desvios.
In seeking to understand how accounting professionals are analyzing and transmitting information, the aim of this work is to show the decision-making in accounting environment from the perspective of Prospect Theory, seeking to demonstrate that decisions are based primarily on judgments, contributing to awareness of the imperfections of the judgments and decisions. The specific objective is to test how the effects Framing, and Certainty can shape decision-making within the accounting environment. As a descriptive study, we applied a structured questionnaire and did not disguise the accounting professionals. The questionnaire was divided into two types (I, II), thus dividing the field of gains and losses. Was sought by examining the results of the questionnaires show the impact of these effects professionals. Among the results, one can see that in general the issues involved in the field of sure gains are the most sought after among the respondents. You can identify the presence of Framing Effects. Regarding gender, it is possible to identify the greatest impact Framing Effect in men than in women. The Effect Certainty are present in both sexes which demonstrates caution before making a decision. Through this study we sought to assist decision makers in the task of rethinking their current decision-making processes, through the awareness that they are endowed with a bounded rationality and that their judgments are passive deflections.
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Ågren, Martin. "Essays on prospect theory and the statistical modeling of financial returns /." Uppsala : Department of Economics, Uppsala University, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-7331.
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McClure, Jason B. "The domestic and international dimensions of risk : prospect theory and Argentina /." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2004. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/04Sep%5FMcClure.pdf.
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Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2004.Thesis Advisor(s): Maria Rasmussen, Harold Trinkunas. Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-73, 75-77). Also available online.
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Böhnke, Jan Rasmus. "Vorhersage des Präferenzumkehreffektes nach der Prospect Theory Stabilität, Situation und Person /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2007. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-opus-44131.
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Jacobson, Ryan Jonathan. "Robo-Advising on South African Exchange Traded Funds utilizing Prospect Theory." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31844.
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Robo-advising is an emerging trend in markets around the world. The term has come to refer almost exclusively to automated advisory services for financial investments or wealth management. Currently, in the South African market, financial services firms offer their own robo-advising platforms that only provide automated advice about their own products. This paper investigates the possibility of a roboadvising platform existing outside of these financial institutions. The paper reviews the preconditions that make robo-advising possible. Namely, risk profiling, portfolio allocation, availability of ETFs and accessible online trading platforms. The research shows that independent robo-advisers are possible in South Africa and a minimum viable implementation is presented.
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Silva, Rui Jorge Carmo Pereira da. "Risk profiling and the DOSPERT scale : an approach using prospect theory." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10351.
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Mestrado em FinançasCompreender a forma como as pessoas se comportam e reagem quando enfrentam situações envolvendo risco é uma componente chave para os consultores financeiros. Neste estudo é proposta uma tradução Portuguesa da escala DOSPERT de Weber et al. (2002) e são encontrados indícios de que esta poderá levar a uma forma simplificada, em termos de cálculos, de obter um resultado equivalente ao coeficiente de aversão à perda proveniente da Prospect Theory. Começamos por validar a nossa tradução da escala com uma população Portuguesa, passando depois à comparação dos resultados da mesma com o coeficiente de aversão à perda. Concluímos com o relato do impacto de várias caraterísticas pessoais no coeficiente de risco dos indivíduos.
Understanding how people behave and react when faced with risky situations is a key component of financial advisory. In this work we propose a Portuguese translation of Weber et al. (2002) DOSPERT psychometric scale, and find evidence that suggests this scale is a step to obtain an equivalent (and easier to calculate) measure of prospect theory's loss aversion. We start by validating our translated version of the scale with a Portuguese population before moving on to the comparison of the scale's results with the loss aversion coefficient. Finally we report the influence of several personal characteristics on people's risk coefficient.
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Giersch, Carsten. "Risikoeinstellungen in internationalen Konflikten /." Wiesbaden : VS Verl. für Sozialwiss, 2009. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=017003967&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
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Silva, Filho Darlan Maciel da. "Finanças comportamentais : o comportamento do agente decisório nos cenários de ganhos, perdas, riscos e incertezas /." Araraquara : [s.n.], 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/90007.
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Orientador: Mário Augusto BertellaBanca: Gilberto Tadeu Lima
Banca: Elton Eustaquio Casagrande
Resumo: As Finanças Comportamentais, com base em estudos empíricos, procuram demonstrar que os investidores nem sempre se mantêm racionais ao tomarem decisões que envolvem riscos, conforme argumentava a Teoria Neoclássica de Finanças. Este trabalho tem como objetivo contextualizar o recente campo de estudo e replicar a investigação empírica do artigo seminal de Kahneman e Tversky (1979) que aborda a Teoria do Prospecto e que constitui a base de Finanças Comportamentais. Simultaneamente, serão comparados os resultados da pesquisa com os de Kahneman e Tversky (1979) com os obtidos nesse estudo. Os resultados encontrados nesta população específica mostram similaridade, e que mesmo com populações e períodos diferentes, os indivíduos tendem a se comportar de maneira, na maioria das vezes, contraria ao que argumentava a Teoria Neoclássica de Finanças
Abstract: Basing on empirical studies, Behavioral Finance seek to demonstrate that investors not always have a rational posture when it comes to making decisions that might involve some sort of risk, according to Neoclassical Finance Theory. This paper aims to contextualize recent studies and respond to the empirical investigation on Kahneman and Tversky's (1979) seminal article, which approaches The Prospect Theory and constitutes the basis for Behavioral Finance. The results of the investigation will simultaneously be compared to those of Kahneman and Tversky (1979). The results, which have been specifically found in this population, show that the results of the samples are similar, and even in different populations and different periods, individuals tend to behave, more often than not, just as opposed to the arguments of the Neoclassical Finance Theory
Mestre
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Vairo, David L. "Elaborations on Multiattribute Utility Theory Dominance." VCU Scholars Compass, 2019. https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/5726.
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ELABORATIONS ON MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY DOMINANCE
By David L. Vairo
A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Virginia Commonwealth University.
Virginia Commonwealth University, 2019.
Major Director: Dissertation director’s name, Dr. Jason Merrick, Supply Chain Management and Analytics
Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) is used to structure decisions with more than one factor (attribute) in play. These decisions become complex when the attributes are dependent on one another. Where linear modeling is concerned with how factors are directly related or correlated with each other, MAUT is concerned with how a decision maker feels about the attributes. This means that direct elicitation of value or utility functions is required. This dissertation focuses on expanding the types of dominance forms used within MAUT. These forms reduce the direct elicitation needed to help structure decisions. Out of this work comes support for current criticisms of gain/loss separability that is assumed as part of Prospect Theory. As such, an alternative to Prospect Theory is presented, derived from within MAUT, by modeling the probability an event occurs as an attribute.
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Munger, Jeanne Lauren. "An experimental application of prospect theory to the pricing of bundled products." Connect to resource, 1992. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1262630995.
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Karamonová, Petra. "Behavioral Finance - Prospect Theory a vliv typu vysokoškolského vzdělání na čtyřdílné chování." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-85171.
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Thesis deals with Prospect Theory and with its findings when making decisions under risk which is called four-fold pattern. In theoretical part is shortly mentioned the field of Behavioral finance and further described original Prospect Theory and also its modified version called Cumulative Prospect Theory. The main goal of the practical part is to confirm on the basis of questionnaire between different kinds of college graduates the four-fold pattern, identify between 3 segments differences and make the final conclusion whether the type of college education has an impact on four-fold pattern.
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Cunha, Ana Torre do Valle de Arriaga e. "Cumulative prospect theory : a parametric analysis of the functional forms and applications." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10990.
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Mestrado em FinançasEste trabalho apresenta um estudo empírico sobre cumulative prospect theory através do estudo da função de utilidade e a função de probabilidade distorcida. Os resultados obtidos estão de acordo com a literatura, que mostra que a função da utilidade é côncava no domínio dos ganhos, e quase linear no domínio das perdas. Não só mostra que a função da probabilidade distorcida tem a forma de um "S" inverso tanto no domínio dos ganhos como no domínio das perdas. Também aborda o estudo de variáveis demográficas relacionando-as com os coeficientes das funções mencionadas anteriormente, concluindo assim que os homens estão mais dispostos a correr riscos do que as mulheres. Por fim, através dos coeficientes calculados, foi possível aplicar os resultados ao mercado financeiro. Primeiro criando uma ponte entre o coeficiente de loss aversion e a escala de DOSPERT, o que irá facilitar a determinação do carteira mais adequado para cada individuo. Segundo, aplicando a cumulative prospect theory à modern portfolio theory para o mercado Português. Isto irá permitir que as instituições financeiras consigam determinar a carteira óptima do mercado, tendo em conta as probabilidades distorcidas.
This work presents an empirical study of the cumulative prospect theory using a Portuguese sample. We estimate the value function and the probability weighting function with positive and negative outcomes. The results confirm previous works that the value function is concave in the gain domain and almost linear in the loss domain. Our results also show an inverse S-shape for the probability weighting function in both loss and gain domain. We also look into the relation of the coefficient from the already mentioned functions with some demographic variables. It was possible to conclude that males are more willing to take risks than females. Finally, using the calculated coefficients we discuss the applicability of the results in the context of financial markets. First we establish a bridge between the loss aversion coefficient and the DOSPERT-scale, which will provide an easier way for financial institutions to present the correct efficient portfolio for each individual. Second we apply the cumulative prospect theory to the modern portfolio theory, for the Portuguese market. This will allow the financial institutions to create an efficient portfolio of the market, taking into account the probabilities distortions
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Gröhn, John Henrik, and Stefan Eriksson. "Jorden runt på fyra företag : En studie om hur rädsla för misslyckande påverkar internationaliseringsbeslut." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för organisation och entreprenörskap (OE), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45723.
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The fear of failure is something most people encounter on a daily basis and a common acceptance is; the more at stake, the harder is the process to make the right decision.This study examines how the variable “fear of failure” affects a strategic decision toexpand abroad. The study is based on a qualitative method and four CEOs of internationalized companies have been interviewed. Positivistic and deductive approaches are applied. Among the four companies risks was seen as a necessity fordeveloping the organization, but unnecessary risks were avoided. Finally, the study shows that fear affects internationalization decisions, especially in the form of lossaversion and uncertainty avoidance, where the uncertainty increased as physical and psychological distances increased.Att rädsla för att misslyckas finns omkring oss är något som de flesta är medvetna om och oftast är det så att ju mer som står på spel, desto svårare blir processen att komma fram till rätt beslut. Studien har undersökt hur variabeln rädsla för att misslyckas påverkar ett strategiskt beslut om att etablera sig utomlands. Uppsatsen är byggd på en kvalitativ metod där fyra internationaliserade företag har studerats genom intervjuer. Vidare utgår studien från ett positivistiskt synsätt och ett deduktivt angreppssätt tillämpas. Bland de fyra företagen sågs risker som nödvändigt för att utveckla organisationen, men man tog helst inte onödiga risker. Avslutningsvis visar studien att rädsla påverkar internationaliseringsbeslut framförallt i form av förlust- och osäkerhetsaversion, där osäkerheten ökade med ökade fysiska och psykiska avstånd.
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Andersson, Gustaf. "Årets julklapp ”INGENTING” : En fallstudie i hur svenska hjälporganisationer jobbar med gestaltning och katalysatorer för Consumer Brand Identification i sin marknadsföring." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Fakulteten för humaniora och samhällsvetenskap (from 2013), 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-45425.
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När en individ identifierar sig med ett varumärke har det visat sig att hen är mer benägen att utföra positiva gärningar gentemot varumärket. Det kan innefatta positive word of mouth, att försvara varumärket vid smutskastning eller intention att köpa produkter från varumärket. För att en identifikation ska uppstå krävs det att en individ kan se delar av sig själv i varumärket eller se en vinning i att identifiera sig med det. En viktig del för varumärket är att visa detta i sin marknadsföring. Till hjälp finns det fem centrala katalysatorer som hjälper till med denna process på olika nivåer. Jag har i denna undersökning isolerat och analyserat dessa i hjälporganisationers marknadsföring för att kunna se hur de används. Vidare används nästan alltid någon form av gestaltning i marknadsföring för att få konsumenten att i större utsträckning förstå budskapet och se det ur berättarens ögon. På det sättet så kan konsumenten lättare ta till sig vad varumärket vill säga och, om kommunikationen är utförd rätt, ges större chans till identifikation. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om 1) hjälporganisationer använder sig av gestaltning i sin marknadsföring, 2)om de använder sig olika katalysatorer för Consumer Brand Identification och 3) om dessa varumärken är lätta att identifiera sig med enligt dessa teorier. Till hjälp för att ta reda på detta så har studien använt sig utav teorierna kring Consumer Brand Identification, gestaltningsteorin och delar av The prospect theory. Studien har analyserat reklamfilmer från två olika hjälporganisationer: Rädda barnen och Unicef. I studien användes en kvalitativ retorisk analys för att tolka reklamfilmernas manifesta och latenta budskap samt två sammanställningar av strategisk gestaltning och olika katalysatorer för Consumer Brand Identification. Resultatet visade att reklamfilmerna tillsammans innehöll alla de olika katalysatorerna och strategiska gestaltningarna. Det intressanta och anmärkningsvärda var att reklamfilmerna ibland inte använde den strategiska gestaltningen på det sätt som forskningen visat skulle vara det bästa sättet att använda dem på. Vad detta kan bero på kan man bara spekulera om och det gör jag också i slutdelen av denna uppsats.When an individual identifies with a brand, it has been proved that he or she does to some extent perform positive actions toward the brand. It can include positive word of mouth, defending the brand in mudslinging, or intent to purchase products from the brand. For an identification to occur, the individual has to see parts of her or his soul in the brand. An important part of the marketing strategy is to show the brands values in their marketing. To facilitate this there are five key drivers that help with this process at different levels. I have in this study isolated and analyzed them in humanitarian organizations marketing. Furthermore, there is almost always some kind of strategic framing in marketing, to get consumers to increasingly understand the message and see it from the narrator's eyes. In this way, the consumer can more easily absorb what the brand is trying to say, and if the communication is performed properly, greater the chance of identification. The aim of this study is to investigate whether humanitarian organizations 1) make use of strategic framing in their marketing, 2) make use of driver for Consumer Brand Identification and 3) if those brands are easy to identify with according to these theories. To help determine this, the study used the theories of Consumer Brand Identification, strategic framing theory and parts of The prospect theory. The study has analyzed commercials from two different aid organizations: Save the Children and UNICEF. The study used a qualitative rhetorical analysis to interpret the advertisings manifest and latent messages and two compilations of strategic design and various driver for Consumer Brand Identification. The result showed that the commercials together contained all the various drivers and strategic framing elements. The interesting and noteworthy part was that the commercials did not, in some cases, use the strategic portrayal in the way that research has shown would be the best way to use them. Why this is we can only speculate about, and so I do in the final section of this paper.
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Abu-Sabha, S. "Arab capital market integration : Problems and prospects." Thesis, Keele University, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.355607.
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Brustelo, Flávio Crepardi. "FINANÇAS COMPORTAMENTAIS EM DECISÕES DE JOGOS DE EMPRESA NA GRADUAÇÃO DA UMESP." Universidade Metodista de São Paulo, 2011. http://tede.metodista.br/jspui/handle/tede/16.
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Previous issue date: 2011-11-23Os 799 discentes presenciais cursando entre o 5º a 8º semestre que utilizam os jogos de empresas, inclusos nas 225 empresas ativas distribuídas entre os cursos de Administração geral; Comércio exterior; Administração financeira; Ciências contábeis e Ciências econômicas no campus Rudge Ramos da Universidade Metodista de São Paulo, foram submetidos a 6 cenários virtuais, com diferentes graus de complexidade, onde suas decisões foram investigadas sob a ótica dos aspectos heurísticos, contidos em finanças comportamentais, validando a hipótese de que suas decisões não são tomadas utilizando a teoria de mercado eficiente contida nas finanças tradicionais, modelo este que pressupõe que seus agentes são racionais e maximizadores de benefícios esperados, mas as tomam através das heurísticas comportamentais de efeito certeza, reflexão e isolamento, existentes no questionário da Teoria do Prospecto, Nobel de economia em 2002 por introduzir os insights da pesquisa psicológica na ciência econômica, especialmente no que diz respeito as avaliações e tomada de decisão sob incerteza, sugerindo uma mudança na função linear da predileção de perdas à ganhos, constantes em finanças tradicionais, para uma concavidade da função utilidade para ganhos e convexas para perdas, utilizadas em heurísticas comportamentais de Kahneman e Tversky (1979). Foi também efetuada uma análise de processos das 56 empresas virtuais contidas no 1º quartil, escalonadas em ordem decrescente, gerando duas proxys de confirmação dos resultados tabulados. Foi constatado uma superestimação de resultados possíveis ao invés de resultados prováveis, demonstrando fantasias das habilidades dos jogadores, equiparáveis com os resultados de Weinstein (1980), em até 71% acreditando serem melhores do que realmente são. Além de análise Qui-Quadrática que confirmaram que os resultados da teoria do prospecto são equiprováveis e equilibrados com o trabalho original, além do Teste-t entre amostras de variâncias equivalentes que geraram significância estatística, reforçando o modelo. Também foi efetuado uma análise das decisões por gênero nas respostas, para comprovar a irrelevância proposta por Hanna, Gutter e Fan (2001) quanto a predileção e aceitação ao risco.
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Mohamed, Mohamed Ali. "Diversification prospects for sustainable Libyan economic growth." Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2014. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/20337/.
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The theory of resource dependence captures the extent to which a country’s economy relies on resource rents. It is usually measured in proportion to GDP, exports, or government revenues; hence, it is a function of absolute levels of resource extraction and rent capture in the context of other economic activity and sources of state revenue. This study has focused on the efforts to date by Libya to diversify its economic base. The resource dependence observed in Libya’s economy is driven mainly by the fact that there are relatively few alternative forms of economic activity, as evidenced by a per capita gap in GDP, or a low level of other exports. The state’s fiscal reliance on revenues from the extractive industries also depends on the size of other revenue streams. Yet, Libya has been unable to adequately distribute its GDP across a wide range of productive sectors. This concern highlights the earlier awareness to the risks of oil resource depletion which could compromise the future of the Libyan economy. In-depth interviews, and semi-structured questionnaire data analysis were carried out to obtain an actual view of the respondent’s perception. The study found that to achieve its objective of sustainability, Libya will need to ensure natural resources continue to be managed efficiently into the future. This may require some policy adjustments. First, diversifying the economy towards higher value-added tasks in manufacturing and services requires renewed emphasis on the structural reform agenda, as well as enhancements to public investment management. These will create the necessary conditions for accelerate productive investments in non-commodity sectors. The formation and the implementation of the policy were consistent with the analysis suggested by literature review. A series of recommendation to improve on the policy was made based on the analysis of the problems indicated and based on suggestions from respondents.