Academic literature on the topic 'Prospecting scenarios'
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Journal articles on the topic "Prospecting scenarios"
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Moraes Vieira, José Artur, Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes, and Igor Engel Braga. "Development of a scenario prospecting model with the use of multicriteria decision aiding: Importance of environmental variables." Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management 14, no. 2 (2017): 210. http://dx.doi.org/10.14488/bjopm.2017.v14.n2.a9.
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The significance of using resources optimally comes from its increasingly present scarcity, whether they are related to the environment, term, financial resources, and political or legal difficulties. This study proposes the use of prospective scenarios, considering multiple and uncertain alternatives. It can be an essential tool for the strategic planning process of organizations. The motivation of the subject studied is the possibility to contribute to the expansion of the corporate strategic planning vision and towards social welfare, related to the commitment of companies to society, since it proposes a model for prospecting scenarios supported by multicriteria decision aiding (MDA) approach, necessarily considering variables related to Corporate Social Responsibility and its nuances. As a result, it is expected to fill the identified gap, which places prospecting scenarios as an empirical tool that deals only with economics and a single future possibility. For further research the application of the model in an actual case is suggested, still raising important questions such as: is there a real contribution with the application of prospective scenarios? Is this tool applicable to any type of company? Who are the stakeholders and how do you measure the effectiveness of this tool?
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Correia da Silva, Lydia Lopes. "ANÁLISE MORFOLÓGICA DA INTRODUÇÃO DE VEÍCULOS ELÉTRICOS NO TRÁFEGO URBANO DE SÃO PAULO DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v3i1.66." Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies 3, no. 1 (2011): 14–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.24023/futurejournal/2175-5825/2011.v3i1.66.
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Pressures of international organizations and governmental regulations have increased substantially when it comes to the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels and transport pollutants emissions. To meet these challenges, the automotive industry invests large sums in research and development on a broad portfolio of new technologies related to vehicular propulsion. Considering the alternatives under development, electric vehicles, specifically, have received increased attention both in Brazil and abroad. This study aims to contribute with the construction of future scenarios in 2020 concerning the introduction of electric vehicles in São Paulo´s urban traffic, an integral part of the CNPq/FINEP research project which is being undertaken at the University of São Paulo (USP/FEA), coordinated by Prof. James T. C. Wright. The Morphological Analysis method was adopted given the fact that it facilitates the structuring of the managerial and technological complexities of the proposed problem, with views to identifying the variables and their critical relations for the prospection of scenarios. The variables that influence an urban transport system were structured into four logical groups: scope of usage, structural architecture and propulsion system of the vehicle, road and energy supply/recharge infrastructure and finally, business models. These groups, in turn, were analysed at distinct levels, leading to other variables. Subsequently, alternative forms, which the selected variables could take on, were generated. The multidimensional matrix resulting from this set of combinatorial possibilities was then carefully verified in terms of feasibility and consistency in order to identify the basic settings of greatest interest to the scenarios prospecting effort.Key words: Prospective scenarios. Morphological analysis. Electric vehicles.
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Robinson, Douglas K. R. "Co-evolutionary scenarios: An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 76, no. 9 (2009): 1222–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.015.
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Harry Luersen, Eduardo. "Re-Entangling Design and Science Fiction: The Case of Daleko." International Journal of Film and Media Arts 6, no. 1 (2021): 33–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.24140/ijfma.v6.n1.02.
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The present article discusses how speculative design relates to technoscientific extrapolation, an important science fiction feature, to plan for potential scenarios and prototype viable models of futurity. Through it, the paper outlines some important nuances between different approaches concerning speculative design’s role, considering their particular epistemological assumptions. A specific case is presented and discussed: Daleko (2020), a project developed for the Strelka Institute’s Terraforming program. This project consists of nine science fiction pieces that entangle issues of waste management, technical infrastructure, and climate politics, discussing the problematic conception of waste as a form of externality and imagining future scenarios for managing it through a more holistic perspective. By analysing Daleko’s approach to speculative design, in its final section the article suggests further developing speculative projects in contexts of design education. This would serve towards stimulating designers to ponder how their craft relates to anthropogenic impact and how it can play a decisive role in prospecting more viable future scenarios.
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Freitas, José Eduardo, and Luiz Guilherme De Oliveira. "PROSPECÇÃO NO SETOR DE DEFESA NO BRASIL: O CASO DO EXÉRCITO BRASILEIRO." Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies 4, no. 2 (2012): 72–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.24023/futurejournal/2175-5825/2012.v4i2.104.
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The present work deals with technological foresight in the defense sector, in Brazil. The theme deals with the case of technological foresight developed by the Brazilian Army (EB), between the years 2009 to 2012. The objective was to identify the systems and materials needed to EB, the technologies required to enable their achievement, and scenarios of national defense industry in 2030. The research method was in two phases, a theoretical framework for the methodology of prospecting, and other empirical, for the fieldwork. The empirical phase was conducted via the Internet, with the consultation of about 2000 respondents, from the most diverse areas of society. The research result was a set of systems, materials and technologies as well as a bunch of tables with probabilities, impact, timing, relevance and risks of the scenarios of national defense industry in 2030. With this information, the EB can develop strategies for transform itself into a new Armed Force, the EB 2030.
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Freitas, Ian, and Daniel Estima De Carvalho. "O AUMENTO NO ACESSO À INTERNET POR JOVENS DA BASE DA PIRÂMIDE NO BRASIL E SUAS PARTICULARIDADES." Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies 4, no. 2 (2012): 132–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.24023/futurejournal/2175-5825/2012.v4i2.121.
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The present work deals with technological foresight in the defense sector, in Brazil. The theme deals with the case of technological foresight developed by the Brazilian Army (EB), between the years 2009 to 2012. The objective was to identify the systems and materials needed to EB, the technologies required to enable their achievement, and scenarios of national defense industry in 2030. The research method was in two phases, a theoretical framework for the methodology of prospecting, and other empirical, for the fieldwork. The empirical phase was conducted via the Internet, with the consultation of about 2000 respondents, from the most diverse areas of society. The research result was a set of systems, materials and technologies as well as a bunch of tables with probabilities, impact, timing, relevance and risks of the scenarios of national defense industry in 2030. With this information, the EB can develop strategies for transform itself into a new Armed Force, the EB 2030.
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Custódio, José Francisco, Guilherme Henrique Scotti Bosquetti, and Reginaldo Manoel Teixeira. "Prospecção ontológica como instrumento para a qualificação do sentimento de realidade em estudantes do ensino médio." Revista Brasileira de Educação em Ciências e Educação Matemática 3, no. 3 (2019): 778. http://dx.doi.org/10.33238/rebecem.2019.v.3.n.3.22122.
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Resumo: Na intenção de compreender “o que é real” para estudantes, alguns pesquisadores introduziram na educação científica a noção de sentimento de realidade. Neste trabalho, partimos de uma conceitualização de sentimento de realidade baseada na Teoria dos Três Mundos de Popper, da qual derivamos um instrumento teórico-metodológico denominado prospecção ontológica. Assim, investigaremos o potencial da prospecção ontológica para qualificar o sentimento de realidade em estudantes do Ensino Médio. Por intermédio da técnica de entrevista-sobre-cenários abordamos 10 estudantes a respeito do sentimento de realidade sobre os objetos caneta, árvore e energia. As entrevistas foram categorizadas em termos de interações sensoriais (ISEN), cognitivas (ICOG), sociais (ISOC) e afetivas (IAFE), que são responsáveis pela emergência e intensificação do sentimento de realidade. Os resultados mostraram que as ISEN e ISOC foram as mais destacadas nas explicações criadas pelos estudantes. Concluímos que a prospecção ontológica é um instrumento fértil para qualificar o sentimento de realidade.Palavras-chave: Categoria ontológica; Dimensão ontológica do conhecimento; Entrevista-sobre-cenários; filosofia da Ciência; Os três mundos de Popper. Ontological prospection as an instrument for qualifying the feeling of reality in high school studentsAbstract: In order to understand "what is real" for students, some researchers have introduced into science education the notion of a sense of reality. In this work, we start from a conceptualization of feeling of reality based on the Theory of the Three Worlds of Popper, from which we derive a theoretical-methodological instrument called ontological prospecting. Thus, we will investigate the potential of ontological prospecting to qualify the sense of reality in high school students. Through the technique of interview-about-scenarios we approached 10 students regarding the feeling of reality on the objects pen, tree and energy. The interviews were categorized in terms of sensory (ISEN), cognitive (ICOG), social (ISOC) and affective (IAFE) interactions, which are responsible for the emergence and intensification of the feeling of reality. The results showed that the ISEN and ISOC were the most prominent in the explanations created by the students. We conclude that the ontological propspection is a fertile instrument to qualify the feeling of reality.Keywords: Ontological category; Ontological dimension of knowledge; Interview-about-scenarios; Philosophy of science; Popper's three worlds
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Fayemi, Olalekan, and Qingyun Di. "2D Multitransient Electromagnetic Response Modeling of South China Shale Gas Earth Model Using an Approximation of Finite Difference Time Domain with Uniaxial Perfectly Matched Layer." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2016 (2016): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6863810.
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In this study, we introduced multitransient electromagnetic (MTEM) method as an effective tool for shale gas exploration. We combined the uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) equation with the first derivative diffusion equation to solve for a finite difference time domain (FDTD) UPML equation, which was discretized to form an algorithm for 3D modeling of earth impulse response and used in modeling MTEM response over 2D South China shale gas model. We started with stepwise demonstration of the UPML and the FDTD algorithm as an effective tool. Subsequently, quantitative study on the convergence of MTEM earth impulse response was performed using different grid setup over a uniform earth material. This illustrates that accurate results can be obtained for specified range of offset. Furthermore, synthetic responses were generated for a set of geological scenarios. Lastly, the FDTD algorithm was used to model the MTEM response over a 2D shale gas earth model from South China using a PRBS source. The obtained apparent resistivity section from the MTEM response showed a similar geological setup with the modeled 2D South China shale gas section. This study confirmed the competence of MTEM method as an effective tool for unconventional shale gas prospecting and exploitation.
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Julien, Pierre-André, Pierre Lamonde, and Daniel Latouche. "La méthode des scénarios en prospective." L'Actualité économique 51, no. 2 (2009): 253–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/800621ar.
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Increasingly scenarios are used as an important component of long-term planning. But not all scenarios are equally valid and equally useful for the decision-maker. Defining a scenario as a "synthetic process which stimulates step by step and in a plausible fashion a series of events which eventually lead a system to a new state", this study examines two kinds of scenarios: exploratory, where the inquiry proceeds from the present situation to a future one, and normative, where the search proceeds from a desirable future to the present. For each type of scenarios three sets of theoretical problems are examined: 1) the role of values, which must be explicitely recognized and used as such; 2) the concept of causality, which in a scenario has to be dealt with differently than in an "ordinary" scientific research, 3) the problem of time and the need to break the linear conception of the link existing between events. Finally, the study examines a number of practical tools and criterias (coherence, interaction, …) with which to build and to judge scenarios.
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Meissner, Philip, and Torsten Wulf. "The development of strategy scenarios based on prospective hindsight." Journal of Strategy and Management 8, no. 2 (2015): 176–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004.
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Purpose – Research focussed on the scenario method has increasingly criticized the widely used intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario development and introduced enhanced approaches, such as the backwards logic method (BLM) or the antifragile (AF) method, to overcome the restrictions associated with the IL approach. The BLM and the AF method have contributed to the further development of the scenario method by integrating backward reasoning and by increasing the method’s effectiveness for decision making. The purpose of this paper is to build on these ideas and introduce strategy scenarios as a further enhancement of the scenario method that directly applies the benefits of scenario-based planning to strategy development in corporations. Design/methodology/approach – The authors argue that the existing methodologies do not fully integrate the benefits of scenario-based planning for strategic decision making and strategy development, as they mostly aim to develop macroenvironmental scenarios and test organizations’ existing strategies. Findings – The paper suggests that changing the scope of scenario planning from environmental developments to the organization’s strategies themselves can further strengthen the method’s effectiveness for decision making. Originality/value – The strategy scenario approach provides an enhanced approach to more comprehensively utilize the benefits of scenario-based reasoning for strategic decision making.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Prospecting scenarios"
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Vieira, Jose Artur Moraes. "Elaboração de modelo para prospecção de cenários com auxilio multicritério a decisão: aplicação em empresa de serviços de engenharia do Estado do Rio de Janeiro." Niterói, 2017. https://app.uff.br/riuff/handle/1/4133.
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M2016 - Jose Artur Moraes Vieira.pdf: 2506150 bytes, checksum: 586cf2bf3d9b631d29846fc88be94f0a (MD5)<br>As discussões recentes sugerem a utilização de recursos de maneira otimizada, dada a sua escassez cada vez mais presente, sejam ambientais, de prazo, financeiros, políticos ou legais. Tal fato torna a tomada de decisão e planejamento estratégico baseados em cenários futuros uma tarefa complexa, já que dispõe alternativas múltiplas e incertas. Este estudo, então, propõe um modelo para prospecção de cenários apoiado na abordagem de Auxílio Multicritério à Decisão (AMD), considerando obrigatoriamente, fatores políticos, econômicos, sociais, tecnológicos e ambientais, que possa ser utilizado como ferramenta para auxiliar no planejamento estratégico das empresas e aplica-lo em uma empresa de serviços de engenharia, localizada no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. A motivação do tema estudado está na possibilidade da aplicação de técnicas AMD no planejamento estratégico. Como resultado foi mostrada a utilidade do modelo proposto visto que possibilitou ao gestor analisar alternativas através da prospecção de futuros realizada.<br>Recent discussions suggest the use of resources optimally, given their scarcity increasingly present, whether environmental, term, financial, political or legal. This fact makes the decision-making and strategic planning based on future scenarios a complex task, as it has multiple and uncertain alternatives. This study then proposes a model for prospecting scenarios supported in Multicriteria Decision Aid (AMD), considering necessarily political, economic, social, technological and environmental factors, which can be used as an auxiliary tool in strategic planning companies and apply it in an engineering services company located in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The motivation of the subject studied is the possibility of applying AMD techniques in strategic planning. As a result was shown the usefulness of the proposed visa that enabled the manager to analyze alternatives over the prospect of future held model.
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Lopes, Caroline Soares Chaves. "As expectativas dos jovens com relação às habilidades necessárias no futuro do trabalho no Brasil em 2030." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21201.
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Mestrado em Economia e Gestão de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação<br>A 4ª Revolução Industrial somada às tendências como envelhecimento populacional e novos modelos de negócio, criam pressões nos sistemas de educação, de proteção social, e de organização do trabalho. As habilidades necessárias para ingressar e progredir no mercado de trabalho estão passando por profundas transformações. Os jovens serão bastante afetados pelas transformações no mundo do trabalho e é indispensável aperfeiçoar a transição escola-trabalho por meio da melhoria na educação e da disponibilidade de informações acerca do mercado de trabalho.
O objetivo desta pesquisa é realizar um exercício de Prospectiva sobre o futuro do trabalho no Brasil em 2030 com a participação de jovens entre 15 e 24 anos. Para conseguirmos responder à questão central e avaliar o impacto da exploração de sinais emergentes em cenários de futuros alternativos no contexto do futuro do trabalho no Brasil em 2030 na expectativa dos jovens, realizamos uma pesquisa quantitativa além do processo de Planeamento de Cenários.
Os resultados indicam que os jovens possuem relativa noção de quais são as forças de mudança que impactam o contexto do trabalho, porém, as expectativas com relação às habilidades necessárias não estão diretamente relacionadas. Além disso, a realização do workshop para exploração de sinais e cenários contribuiu para o aprendizado dos jovens e obteve feedbacks positivos, embora sejam necessários ajustes devido à complexidade do método e da matéria.<br>The 4th Industrial Revolution, added to trends such as population aging and new business models, create pressures on education, social protection, and work organization systems. The skills needed to enter and progress in the labor market are undergoing profound changes. Young people will be greatly affected by changes in the labor market and it is essential to improve the school-work transition by improving education and the availability of information about the labor market.
The objective of this work is to carry out a Prospective exercise on the Future of Labor in Brazil in 2030 with the participation of young people between 15 and 24 years old. In order to answer the central question and evaluate the impact of exploring emerging signs in alternative future scenarios in the context of the future of work in Brazil in 2030 in the expectation of young people, we carried out a quantitative research in addition to the Scenario Planning process.
The results indicate that young people have a relative notion of the forces of change that impact the work context, however, expectations regarding the necessary skills are not directly related. In addition, the workshop to explore signs and scenarios contributed to the learning of young people and obtained positive feedbacks, although adjustments are necessary due to the complexity of the method.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Kososki, Paulo Roberto. "Visão prospectiva da demanda de aços planos no Brasil." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/6886.
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Previous issue date: 2010-03-29<br>Ao longo da história da humanidade, vários esforços foram feitos na tentativa de prever o futuro. Isto ocorreu como uma forma de antever possíveis situações e também de estabelecer mudanças de objetivos devido às alternativas apresentadas. Inúmeros questionamentos surgiram diante deste processo e inegavelmente estavam centrados no quesito 'incerteza' dos eventos. E é exatamente neste contexto que surge a técnica prospectiva, que tem o propósito de analisar as incertezas e refletir sobre as suas alternativas de ação no presente e trata de aprimorar o entendimento de como o futuro pode acontecer. As opções de futuro se materializam através da sua descrição ordenada e consistente, ou seja, através de um cenário que é a delimitação de uma situação futura e da seqüência dos acontecimentos que permitem passar da situação de origem a essa situação futura. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho é realizar um estudo prospectivo e longo prazo sobre a demanda de aços planos no Brasil, tendo em vista a importância da indústria siderúrgica brasileira e às incertezas a ela relacionadas e utiliza a análise prospectiva na elaboração de cenários passíveis de ocorrência. Portanto, trata, inicialmente, de aspectos conceituais da visão prospectiva e sua evolução histórica, abordando e focalizando a técnica proposta por Michel Godet, porém utilizando o método PROSPEX de Eduardo Marques para a elaboração de cenários da demanda de aços planos no Brasil. Diante disso, foram identificados dois cenários qualitativos contrastantes e posteriormente submetidos a um modelo macroeconômico de projeção, o Projetar_e, que, devidamente calibrado, indicou quantitativamente o nível de diversas variáveis econômicas e o desempenho futuro do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Como resultado, concluímos que há uma forte relação de causalidade entre o PIB e o consumo de aços planos e identificamos uma equação de regressão linear que permite a projeção da referida demanda. As conclusões ainda demonstram que os resultados dos cenários quantitativos identificados neste trabalho apresentam diferenças significativas em relação às estimativas efetuadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Siderurgia (IBS), cabendo, portanto uma reflexão sobre a plausibilidade da utilização de cenários de caráter projetivos para estudos de longo vii prazo, baseados em dados históricos que simplesmente extrapolam para o futuro a imagem do passado. Finalmente, recomendamos pesquisas adicionais para a formalização da integração de métodos qualitativos com métodos quantitativos de elaboração de cenários e a utilização de estudos prospectivos nas empresas participantes da cadeia de valor que utilizam o aço plano como matéria-prima essencial nos seus processos produtivos.
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Santos, Bernardino José Garcia dos. "Indústria aeroespacial em Portugal : que futuro ?" Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16006.
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Mestrado em Economia e Gestão de Ciência e Tecnologia<br>A indústria aeroespacial constitui um sector com grande importância ao produzir um conjunto de produtos de alta tecnologia, com um amplo e variado campo de aplicação. Trata-se pois, de um sector estratégico do ponto de vista industrial, comercial e tecnológico.
Neste trabalho utilizam-se algumas etapas do método dos cenários,
proposto Michel Godet, no estudo prospectivo do sector aeroespacial português,
com a finalidade de averiguar a viabilidade da sua existência como indústria e de
identificar as áreas preferenciais do seu desenvolvimento. As etapas seguidas
foram; delimitação do sistema, pesquisa das variáveis-chave, consulta de um
painel de peritos e esboço dos cenários julgados mais prováveis.
Depois de um enquadramento teórico, em que é evidenciado o
interesse da prospectiva como utensílio essencial no planeamento estratégico, é
feito um diagnóstico da indústria aeroespacial a nível mundial, comunitário e
nacional. Através da utilização parcial do método dos cenários é identificado um
conjunto de variáveis-chave condicionantes da evolução do sistema estudado.
A consulta do painel de peritos teve por função reduzir a incerteza das
variáveis-chave e, simultaneamente, contribuir para a elaboração dos cenários
possíveis para o futuro da indústria aeroespacial, os quais se apresentam no
final deste trabalho.
Durante toda a exposição ó colocada sempre em evidência a hipótese
de que a indústria aeroespacial só se consolidará em Portugal, se forem
reunidas as condições que possibilitem a participação dos elementos do sector
em consórcios internacionais de concepção e fabrico de veículos aeroespaciais.<br>Aerospace industry, on manufacturing high technology products with a wide range of applications, became a very important industrial, commercial and technological strategic sector. On this work, the Portuguese aerospace sector is prospectively studied using some stages of the method of scenarios, proposed by Michel Godet, to evaluate its viability as an industry, and to identify their best development areas. The stages used on this work were: the definition of the system limits, the keyvariables research, the consultation of an experts' panei, and the sketch of the most possible scenarios. A theoretic framing, where the forecasting is set off as an essential tool on strategic planning, is made, followed by an aerospace industry diagnosis on worid wide, communitarian and national leveis. Using some stages of the method of scenarios, an assembly of key-variables, which conditions the evolution of the studied system, is identified. Consulting the experfs panei increased the accuracy of key-variables and contributed, as well, to elaborate the possible scenarios of aerospace industry future, presented at the end of this work. The hypothesis that aerospace industry will be Consolidated in Portugal, only if elements of this sector are able to be part of international groups to concept and manufacture aerospace vehicles, is always set off ali long this work.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Bentaibi, Faïçal. "Approche prospective du système agro-alimentaire marocain : quelques scenarios pour l'an 2005." Nice, 1988. http://www.theses.fr/1988NICE0021.
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L'analyse de la situation alimentaire au Maroc dégage une certaine faiblesse de formulation des politiques alimentaires et surtout nutritionnelles, ainsi qu'une évidente discordance entre les politiques de production et celles de la consommation. Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la demande alimentaire a fortement augmenté sous l'effet conjugué de plusieurs facteurs, principalement l'accroissement démographique, l'urbanisation rapide et dans une moindre mesure l'évolution des revenus. Parallèlement le secteur agricole et agro-alimentaire s'est trouvé dans l'incapacité de faire face à la croissance et aux transformations de la demande en raison des contraintes géo-écologiques, sociostructurelles et organisationnelles. Le recours aux importations de produits alimentaires pour équilibrer l'offre à la demande a souvent représenté une solution de facilité. Une éventuelle reprodution à long terme de cette tendance indique la nécessité de rechercher une nouvelle dynamique offre-demande s'appuyant sur une meilleure mise en valeur du potentiel productif et une réorientation de la consommation en vue de relever le double défi de la malnutrition et de la dépendance alimentaire. A cet egard, il est certain que les principales contraintes se situeraient sur le plan du financement et des moyens à mettre en oeuvre, mais c'est surtout le dépassement des blocages socio-structurels et organisationnels qui serait le plus à même d'ouvrir la voie à la réalisation des scénarios souhaitables<br>The analysis of the alimentary situation in morocco shows a certain weakness in the formulation of alimentary and nutritional policies, as well as an evident discordance between the production and consumption policies. During the last 2 decades the need for food has strongly raised under the effects of diverses factors, such as population growth, rapid urbanisation and, in a smaller mesure, the raise of income. Parallely, the agricultural and alimentary sector has been incapable of facing the growth and transformation of the demand, and this for reasons mainly geo-ecological, socio-structurel and of organisation. The recourse to importation of alimentary products to level between offer and demand often represented a solution of facility. An eventual reproduction in the long run of this tendency shows the necessity of finding a new dynamic of offer and demand, which should repose on a better utilization of the producing potential and a new orientation of consumption, so that the spectres of malnutrition and alimentary dependancy could be defied. It is certain that the main compulsions are to be found in the spheres of finance, but it is primarily a question of forcing socio-cultural blockades, which could open the way to desirables scenarios
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Lancesseur, Nicolas. "Macroeconomic scenarios for employment in the socio-ecological transition." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010043.
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L'objectif général de cette thèse est l'évaluation ex ante des politiques économiques nécessaires en Europe dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Au-delà de l'objectif environnemental, une attention particulière a été portée aux résultats d'emploi de ces politiques. L'analyse des scénarios construits dans cette optique, nous a conduits aux constats suivants: (i) pour respecter les recommandations du GIEC, l'action politique est urgente et doit être forte. (ii) La volonté nécessaire pour mettre en place ces politiques est certes significative, mais l'intensité des efforts n'a rien d'exceptionnel d'un point de vue historique (à l'inverse du réchauffement climatique qui est un défi historique). (iii) S'ils sont bien calibrés, les instruments économiques qui ont pour but de réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, permettront également d'améliorer la situation de l'emploi en Europe. (iv) Néanmoins, il serait très risqué d'attendre, pour agir, de trouver des politiques climatiques qui puissent en même temps résorber la totalité du chômage européen, car il est très improbable que de telles politiques soient possibles. En effet, le marché du travail connaît actuellement de lourds déséquilibres, et fera face dans les prochaines décennies à des risques structurels importants. Un des scénarios de cette étude nous a amenés à entreprendre une investigation empirique pour vérifier un choix de modélisation que nous avons fait. Nous avons alors développé un modèle économétrique original pour capter les effets des changements de préférence dans la consommation. Le filtre de Kalman a ainsi été utilisé pour estimer le biais de changement de préférence au moyen d'un système de demande de consommation en données de panel. Plusieurs changements structurels indépendants de l'évolution des prix ou des revenus, tels que la montée des préoccupations des consommateurs pour l'environnement, la santé et le bien-être, ont été identifiés dans nos estimations. Par ailleurs les résultats empiriques apportés par ce modèle confirment que les changements de comportement de consommation simulés dans le scénario construit en première partie sont d'un ordre de grandeur raisonnable<br>The general objective of this dissertation is the ex ante assessment of the economic policy response needed in the European Union to take up the climate change issue. Moreover, we tried to maximise the employment results of these policies. The results of the scenarios designed in this framework, lead us to the following beliefs: (i) to respect the recommendations of the IPCC, which is an absolute necessity, the political reaction needs to be rapid and strong from now. (ii) Despite the intensity of the policy response, the scale of the endeavours is not so exceptional in a historical perspective, while global warming is definitely a historical challenge. (iii) The economic instruments aiming at reducing GHG emissions will result, if they are well calibrated, in a significant better situation of the European labour market. (iv) However it would be very dangerous to wait for climate mitigation policies that could selve also completely the labour market issue, because such policies are unlikely to exist. Indeed, the European labour market currently faces serious difficulties and will face important structural risks in the next decades. It is a good thing if the mitigation policies participate to the solution, but the structural disequilibrium of labour market requires a much larger response from policy makers. One of the policy response scenarios led us to make an empirical investigation to verify the credibility of one modelling choice we made. Then, we developed an original econometric mode! aiming to capture the effect of the preferences change on consumption. We used therefore the Kalman fil ter to estimate this bias of preference changes in a consumption demand system in the framework of a panel data model. Severa! structural changes independent of prices or income motions, such as the rise in environmental, health, and well-being concems, are captured by our estimations. Moreover, the empirical results provided by the mode! confirm that the consumers behaviour changes simulated in the scenario built in the first part, are in a reasonable order of magnitude
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Vieira, Julio Cesar da Silva Freitas. "Planejamento de cenários adotando a metodologia Shell no setor de energia elétrica: visualizações da geração distribuída no Brasil." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2013. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/4762.
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Previous issue date: 2013-07-12<br>Nenhuma<br>O futuro, com seus riscos e incertezas, pode ser apontado como um dos assuntos que mais gera receios nas organizações. Para lidar com essas situações, algumas empresas utilizam técnicas e metodologias já comprovadas pela academia, para se tornarem competitivas. Quando organizações apresentam situações de alto grau de incerteza, quantidade insuficiente de oportunidades, setor em mudança e problemas de comunição interna, a metodologia de planejamento de cenários prospectivos é a mais indicada. No referencial teórico, foram mapeadas as principais abordagens de cenários prospectivos, dando ênfase para a metodologia selecionada para a aplicação, a metodologia Shell, que possui histórico de utilização, literatura disponível pela própria Shell e poucos estudos de aplicação no Brasil. Para aplicação piloto desta metodologia, foi selecionada a empresa CEEE, que atende os mercados de geração, transmissão e distribuição de energia elétrica, fazendo parte de um setor que se encontra em mudanças no país. A área de estudos escolhidas para os cenários foi a Geração Distribuída (GD). A aplicação foi concluída com a visualização de dois cenários da Geração Distribuída em 2035, os cenários Personalidade e Alienação. Estas estórias foram inicialmente delimitadas para o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Porém no decorrer de suas construções, tiveram sua delimitação ampliada para o setor de energia elétrica brasileiro. As estórias dos cenários construídos neste estudo tiveram como principais forças motrizes as questões institucionais, ambientais e políticas, que resultaram em um cenário otimista e um pessimista. Um dos fatores críticos para o sucesso da GD no Brasil, apontado pelos cenários, é à evolução intelectual da população brasileira, uma força capaz de exigir seus direitos, melhores práticas e se opor as forças dominantes e hegemônicas no poder. Os resultados desta aplicação mostraram que a metodologia de planejamento de cenários apresentou sinais de contribuição para aprendizagem, criatividade, comunicação interna e auxílio no processo de tomada de decisões da organização, sendo indicada a utilização desta ferramenta. As análises finais desta pesquisa permitiram também a elaboração de uma lista com os Fatores Críticos para o Sucesso (FCS) da aplicação da metodologia de planejamento de cenários Shell.<br>The future with its risks and uncertainties could be rendered as one of the issues that generate more apprehension in organizations. In order to deal with this reality, some companies utilize academy proved techniques and methodologies in order to be competitive. When organizations face situations of high level of uncertainty, insufficient quantity of opportunities, constant changing business environment and problems with internal communication, the planning methodology for prospective scenarios is the most indicated. During the gathering of the theoretical reference, the main prospective scenarios approach came to light. The emphasis was given to the methodology selected for the application, the Shell methodology, which has a historical of utilizing such literature, which is made available by the company itself, as well as a few studies that are being applied in Brazil. As a pilot methodology exercise, the company CEEE has been selected. CEEE deals with the generation, distribution and transmission of electrical energy and is inserted in a sector facing a changing environment scenario. The study area that was chosen for the scenarios was Distributed Generation (DG). The application has completed with the visualization of two scenarios of Distributed Generation in Brazil at the 2035, Personalidade and Alienação scenarios. This stories were initially delimited to the Rio Grande do Sul state. However at the course of its buildings had extended its delimitation to the Brazilian electricity sector. The stories of the scenarios constructed in this study had as main driving forces, institutional, environmental and political issues, which resulted in an optimistic scenario and a pessimist. One of the critical factors for the success of DG in Brazil, as present at the scenarios, was the intellectual evolution of the Brazilian population, a force able to claim their rights, best practices and oppose the dominant and hegemonic forces of power. The results of the research have shown that the planning methodology for prospective scenarios showed signs to contribute to the learning, creativity stimulus and internal communication in the target company, as well as help the process of decision making in the organization, which indicates the utilization of this tool. The final analyzes of this study also contributed to the creation of a list with Critical Success Factors (CSF) influencing in the application of the Shell planning methodology for prospective scenarios.
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Prats, Vincent. "Södertälje, a gateway to degrowth : A prospective design scenario to visualise the transition." Thesis, KTH, Arkitektur, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-217823.
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The project is an attempt to explore the concept of degrowth and its implications on the municipality of Södertälje, Sweden. Degrowth is brought as a critique of the dominant ideology of taken-for-granted economic growth and its inherent over-exploitation of resources. It is advanced as the new agenda for a different society and seeks to reduce its metabolism. A voluntary degrowth starts at the political level with a series of policies and regulations that eventually lead to a radical transformation of the urban fabric, structures, programmes and lifestyles. Therefore the project aims at visualising the transition from a growth-based society to one that favours environmental and social well-being over economic growth. Food production is brought in as the first agent of change, but other types of production come in thereafter. Three preferred areas have been chosen to illustrate the changes: an improved waterfront catalyzed by a food hub, a reconfigured city centre and a motor-oriented industrial area metamorphosed into a complex mix of housing and productive spaces.
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Abrantes, António Fernando Caldeira Lagem. "Determinantes organizacionais na qualidade em tecnologias da saúde. O caso particular dos serviços de radiologia do sector público da Região de Saúde do Algarve." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/17959.
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Na actualidade, as questões relacionadas com a qualidade ocupam um lugar central nos discursos científicos e políticos no domínio da saúde. Embora se trate de um facto cada vez mais “interiorizado” na acção dos profissionais de saúde, paradoxalmente, a ideia de governança clínica nas tecnologias da saúde e o uso das práticas baseadas na evidência pelos Técnicos de Radiologia, colocam uma óptica diferente quer no plano da regulação e autonomia profissional, quer no âmbito da normalização dos processos de qualidade e avaliação da prestação de serviços de radiologia hospitalares. Através do diagnóstico prospectivo foi possível efectuar a análise estrutural de duas unidades de Tomografia Computorizada públicas e compreender quais os futuros mais prováveis de ocorrer na dinâmica das práxis dos Técnicos de Radiologia, cujos resultados permitiram descodificar processos complexos de desconstrução e reconstrução social da actividade deste grupo profissional nas fronteiras do complexo sistema organizacional dos serviços de radiologia hospitalares estudados; ABSTRACT: At present, quality issues occupy a central place in scientific and political discourse on health. Although it is a fact that more and more "internalized" in health professionals actions, paradoxically, the idea of clinical governance in health technologies and the use of evidence-based practices by Radiographer, put a different perspective or in terms of regulation and professional autonomy, or in the field of standardization of quality procedures and assessment of radiology services in hospitals. Through a prospective diagnosis could be made a structural analysis of two public units of Computed Tomography and understand what future can more likely occur in the dynamics of Radiographer práxis, whose results led to decode complex processes of deconstruction and reconstruction of social activity of this group professional boundaries .
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Leavy, Sebastián. "Análise prospectiva dos agronegócios no município de Pergamino, Buenos Aires, Argentina." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/8550.
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A República Argentina baseia sua economia interna na produção agropecuária. Na província de Buenos Aires se encontra o Município de Pergamino, que abriga um complexo sistema de produção agroindustrial (SAG), que representa a vanguarda desta economia. Por sua forte inserção internacional, a dinâmica deste sistema reflete a dinâmica dos agronegócios internacionais. Este trabalho analisa a dinâmica deste sistema local, com vistas à antecipação dos cenários futuros dos agronegócios da região pampeana Argentina. Foi procedida a caracterização dos vetores da dinâmica dos agronegócios do município de Pergamino, por meio da identificação dos principais stakeholders, das variáveis-chave que incidem na evolução dos sistemas agroindustriais e suas inter-relações, correlacionando-as com as tendências de cada um dos setores-elos deste SAG. A identificação e análise destes elementos se constituem nas etapas preliminares da construção de cenários futuros dos agronegócios do município e do seu entorno. A análise prospectiva do SAG pretende capacitar os principais stakeholders vinculados ao uso do solo do Município de Pergamino às possíveis mudanças que poderão acontecer no futuro. A metodologia se baseia no emprego de 49 entrevistas semi-estruturadas com os principais stakeholders dos setores do SAG local, relacionados aos insumos, produção, indústria, mercado e às atividades de implicações gerais. A identificação dos stakeholders foi apoiada por consultas a oito especialistas vinculados ao SAG. Esta pesquisa concluiu que as mudanças estruturais no SAG do município de Pergamino são geradas primordialmente pelos stakeholders internacionais. Destacaram-se um total de 24 variáveis-chave, relevantes aos agronegócios do município. As variáveis-chave de maior freqüência de menção se referem às políticas nacionais do Estado Argentino, à bioenergia, à demanda asiática, à biotecnologia e às barreiras comerciais internacionais. As principais variáveis-chave dinamizadoras das tendências do futuro dos agronegócios de Pergamino estariam relacionadas à demanda internacional, principalmente da China, à concentração das empresas dos setores de insumos e indústria, aos avanços da biotecnologia e à inclusão das culturas voltadas ao mercado de bioenergia na sua pauta de produção. Ao lado destas variáveis, afetas a elementos mercadológicos e à inovação tecnológica, também seriam vetores importantes de construção do futuro do município de Pergamino, a concentração das empresas nos setores de insumos e da indústria, associada às inversões estratégicas das trading e às barreiras comerciais. Uma variável de importância latente no município de Pergamino se refere à possibilidade de ocorrência de crises sociais, possivelmente derivada da ameaça associada aos processos de concentração de atividade econômica ou a quedas de demanda do mercado exterior, que incidiria no desenvolvimento da economia regional. Pelos resultados desta pesquisa, o futuro dos agronegócios de Pergamino será determinado primordialmente pelas variáveis que se derivam da sua forte inserção e interdependência dos mercados internacionais e da concentração dos negócios em um pequeno número de empresas, as quais subordinam, tanto as reações e iniciativas relativas aos investimentos e as escolhas locais, como as próprias políticas públicas de adaptação às mudanças externas. Neste trabalho foi revelador que a importância para a economia local das variáveis relativas à evolução do mercado, à concentração empresarial e à inovação tecnológica são fortes indicadores da inserção e interdependência internacional dos agronegócios da região pampeana Argentina<br>The economics of Republic of Argentina is based on agricultural production. In the province of Buenos Aires is located the county of Pergamino, which encloses a complex system of agribusiness production (SAG), representing the frontline of this economy. For its strong international insertion, the dynamics of this system reflects the dynamics of the international agribusiness. This research analyses the dynamics of the local system, aiming the anticipation of future scenarios of agribusiness of Argentina Pampas. The characterization of the vectors of the agribusiness dynamics of Pergamino County was carried out by identifying the main stakeholders, the key variables that underline the evolution of agribusiness systems and their interrelationships, correlating them with the trends of each one of the link-sectors of this agribusiness system. The identification and analyses of these elements are the preliminary steps in the construction of the future scenarios of the agribusiness in the county. The prospective analyses of the agribusiness system intend to capacitate the main stakeholders linked to the land use of Pergamino to face the possible changes that may happen in that field in the future. The methodology is based on the use of 49 semi-structured interviews with the main stakeholders of the local agribusiness system sectors, related to inputs, production, industry, market and general activities. The stakeholders identification was supported by consulting eight experts related to the local, agribusiness system. The conclusion of this research is that the structural changes in the county of Pergamino agribusiness system are generated mainly by international stakeholders. A total of 24 key variables were identified as relevant to the county agribusiness future. The most frequent key variables mentioned by the interviewers are related to Argentina Government politics, bioenergy, asian demand, biotechnology and international market barriers. The main forces driving Pergamino agribusiness future trends would be related to international demand, mainly from China, concentration of companies in the inputs and industry sectors, advances in biotechnology, and the inclusion of crops used in the production of bioenergy in the local fields. Along with these variables, affected by market elements and technological innovation, are also important vectors in the construction of the future of Pergamino County the concentration of companies in the inputs and industry sectors, associated to the strategic initiatives of the tradings, and the commercial barriers. A variable of latent importance in Pergamino is the possibility of occurring social crisis, possibly due to the threat related to concentration processes of economic activities or reduction in the demand of international trade, which would influence the regional economic development. Based in these research results, the future of Pergamino agribusiness will be determined mainly by variables that derive from the strong insertion and dependence of international trades, and concentration of business in a small number of companies, which subordinate the reactions and the initiatives related to local investments and choices, and the public policies towards the adaptation to international changes. This study has shown the importance of the variables related to market evolution, concentration of companies and technological innovation to the local economy, which can be understood as strong indicators of the international insertion and interdependence of Argentina Pampa agribusiness.
Books on the topic "Prospecting scenarios"
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Mehrotra, N. C. Palynology in hydrocarbon exploration.: The Indian scenario. Geological Society of India, 2005.
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Prospective of Ukraine crisis: Scenarios for a mid-long term evolution. Editura Institutului de Științe Politice și Relaţii Internaționale, 2014.
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National Seminar on Oil, Gas, and Lignite Scenario With Special Reference to Rajasthan (2005 Social Policy Research Institute). Proceedings of the National Seminar on Oil, Gas & Lignite Scenario with Special Reference to Rajasthan. Edited by Shreewastava B. P, Mathur Ajay, and Social Policy Research Institute (Jaipur, India). Social Policy Research Institute, 2005.
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Prophecies of doom and scenarios of progress: Herman Kahn, Julian Simon, and the prospective imagination. Continuum International Pub. Group, 2007.
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C, Mehrotra N., and Geological Society of India, eds. Palynology in hydrocarbon exploration: The Indian scenario. Geological Society of India, 2002.
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Rodrigues, Teresa, and Carla Fernandes. Future of Energy: Prospective Scenarios on EU-Russia Relations. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2019.
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Indonesia. Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Laut., ed. Pulau Batam scenario with regard to its prospective developments. Directorate General of Sea Communications, 1989.
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Aligica, Paul Dragos. Prophecies of Doom and Scenarios of Progress: Herman Kahn, Julian Simon and the Prospective Imagination. Continuum International Publishing Group, 2007.
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Petersen, Per Serritslev. Making Sense of Jack London’s Confusion of Genres in The Sea-Wolf. Edited by Jay Williams. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199315178.013.18.
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I discuss the philosophical significance of the generic confusions in Jack London’s novel The Sea-Wolf (1904). Drawing on a generous array of genres and scenarios, London asks his prospective reader to try and make sense of this complexity, either as “the superficial reader” of the sea romance or as “the deeper reader,” who is promised “the bigger thing lying underneath.” But what exactly is that bigger thing, the philosophical message, hidden by the generic complexity of the narrative, which will eventually necessitate a kind of deus-ex-machina authorial intervention when the sea romance is jeopardized by the demonic superman (and rapist) Wolf Larsen. By way of conclusion, I discuss the existential dilemma that London faced in The Sea-Wolf and in most of his work its philosophical formula articulated in Jules de Gaultier’s bovarysme and the war against reality, the Medusa-Truth.
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Arthur, Joseph. Palliative Sedation Therapy and Survival (DRAFT). Edited by Nathan A. Gray and Thomas W. LeBlanc. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780190658618.003.0045.
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Patients with advanced illness sometimes experience severe and debilitating physical and psychological symptoms at the end of life that may be refractory to all kinds of conventional treatments available for symptom relief. In such situations, palliative sedation therapy (PST) may be indicated. However, its utilization has been subject to debate. One viewpoint is that PST may hasten death. However, some studies have indicated otherwise. This chapter discusses a multicenter, prospective, observational, nonrandomized population-based study that compared the overall survival of a cohort of terminally ill patients who received PST with a similar group of patients who did not. The study showed that PST does not shorten life when used to relieve refractory symptoms. The chapter also presents a clinical case scenario to illustrate who should receive PST.
Book chapters on the topic "Prospecting scenarios"
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dos Reis, Nélio Fernando, Cristina Corrêa de Oliveira, Liliam Sayuri Sakamoto, André Gomes de Lira, and Jair Minoro Abe. "Paraconsistent Method of Prospective Scenarios (PMPS)." In Progress in Pattern Recognition, Image Analysis, Computer Vision, and Applications. Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-44739-0_10.
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Wigger, Henning. "Product application scenarios for prospective assessments." In Environmental Release of and Exposure to Iron Oxide and Silver Nanoparticles. Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-16791-2_4.
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Paes, Neir Antunes, and Alisson dos Santos Silva. "Prospective Scenarios on Coverage of Deaths in Brazil." In Demography and Health Issues. Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5_8.
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Jha, Manis Kumar, Abhishek Kumar, Vinay Kumar, and Jae-chun Lee. "Prospective Scenario of E-Waste Recycling in India." In Recycling of Electronic Waste II. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118086391.ch10.
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Marinovic, Milan M., Antonio Glaría, and Danitza Marinovic. "Neurophenomenology of Social Tension: A Theoretical Framework for Modelling Prospective Scenarios." In Proceedings of SAI Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys) 2016. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56994-9_17.
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Henriques, Ana, Hélia Oliveira, and Mónica Baptista. "Promoting a Learning Scenario for an Integrated Approach to STEM: Prospective Teachers’ Perspectives in Portugal." In Advances in STEM Education. Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52229-2_21.
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Thiéry, Dominique, Nadia Amraoui, Eric Gomez, Nicolas Pédron, and Jean Jacques Seguin. "Regional Model of Groundwater Management in North Aquitania Aquifer System: Water Resources Optimization and Implementation of Prospective Scenarios Taking into Account Climate Change." In Water Security in the Mediterranean Region. Springer Netherlands, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1623-0_19.
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Neumann, Ingo, and Sonja Deppisch. "Prospective scenario planning in collaborative transdisciplinary research." In Transdisciplinary Research and Sustainability. Routledge, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315441481-12.
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Kırkgöz, Yasemin. "Integrating Study Abroad in Teacher Education." In Handbook of Research on Study Abroad Programs and Outbound Mobility. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-0169-5.ch024.
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This chapter describes the design of an innovative ‘Study Abroad' curriculum to be integrated into teacher education departments. The curriculum is based upon the results of in-depth interviews administered to teacher candidates and/or practicing teachers of English following their return from a study abroad program. The curriculum is designed with a view to meeting the needs of prospective study abroad student teachers of English, and to address possible challenges that may result from their participation in such programs. The most innovative aspect of the curriculum is that it incorporates problem scenarios, and provides experiential hands-on practice. The curriculum comprises ten modules, each focused on a different topic. It is expected that the curriculum will enhance teacher educators' awareness of the contribution(s) study abroad makes to create global citizens, and increase teacher educators' knowledge about the learning needs of prospective study abroad student teachers.
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Kırkgöz, Yasemin. "Integrating Study Abroad Curriculum in Teacher Education." In Advancing Teacher Education and Curriculum Development through Study Abroad Programs. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-9672-3.ch010.
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This chapter describes the design of an innovative study abroad curriculum to be integrated into teacher education departments. The curriculum is based upon the results of in-depth interviews administered to teacher candidates and/or practicing teachers of English following their return from a study abroad program. The curriculum is designed to meet the needs of prospective study abroad student teachers of English and to address possible challenges that might result from their participation in such programs. The most innovative aspect of the curriculum is that it incorporates problem scenarios and provides experiential hands-on practice. The curriculum comprises ten modules, each focusing on a different topic. It is expected that the curriculum will enhance teacher educators' awareness of the contribution(s) study abroad makes to create global citizens and increase teacher educators' knowledge about the learning needs of prospective study abroad student teachers.
Conference papers on the topic "Prospecting scenarios"
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SANSEVERINO, ADRIANA MANZOLILLO, CARLOS FRANCISCO SIMÕES GOMES, MARA REGINA DOS SANTOS BARCELOS, IGOR PINHEIRO DE ARAÚJO COSTA, and MARCOS DOS SANTOS. "Bibliometric Studies on Prospective Scenarios and Multicriteria Decision Aid." In IJCIEOM 2020 - International Joint Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management. IJCIEOM 2020 - International Joint Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.14488/ijcieom2020_full_0006_37398.
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Medeiros, Sergio Palma J., Vanessa Janni Epelbaum, Jano Moreira de Souza, and Maria Gilda Pimentel Esteves. "Fuzzy prospective scenarios in strategic planning in Large-Group Decision." In 2013 IEEE 17th International Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work in Design (CSCWD). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cscwd.2013.6580937.
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Feuerstein, Mevina, and Franziska Adamek. "Analysis of prospective energy scenarios using a multiple-level approach." In 2009 IEEE-PES/IAS Conference on Sustainable Alternative Energy (SAE). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sae.2009.5534885.
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Boucher, Lionel, and Dominique Greneche. "A Synthesis on the HTR Scenario Studies at CEA." In Fourth International Topical Meeting on High Temperature Reactor Technology. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/htr2008-58059.
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From 2002 to 2007, an important program study on HTR has been carried out by CEA and AREVA NC under the joint CEA–AREVA NC project “prospective studies on the management of Plutonium and the back end of the cycle.”
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Moore, R., and C. Simmons. "118. Simulation of Retrospective and Prospective Chemical Exposure Scenarios Using Sulfur Hexafluoride (." In AIHce 2005. AIHA, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3320/1.2758465.
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van der Vegte, Wilhelm Frederik, and Niels C. C. M. Moes. "Towards Improved User-Product Testing With Cognitively Enhanced Scenarios." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-70816.
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With the increasing information-intensiveness of products, users are challenged with expanding options and possible ways to interact. Rapidly escalating numbers of possible user-operation sequences hinder designers in anticipating all possible (unacceptable) outcomes. Interactively simulating product models with human subjects to explore all options is not practicable. Virtual simulation with computer models of users can open the way towards faster-than-real-time performance and investigation of massive numbers of interaction sequences. This paper reports on opportunities to improve realism of virtual-use simulations by incorporating knowledge about the workings of the human brain We elaborate how, in particular, cognitive-architecture simulations developed by cognitive scientists and error phenotypes identified in human reliability analysis (HRA) can extend a virtual-use simulation approach that we have proposed in foregoing work, by offering the prospective of generating interaction sequences with erroneous user actions unforeseen by the designer. We outline how such an integrated system can be implemented and also discuss validation issues.
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Henriques, Ana, Mónica Baptista, Hélia Oliveira, and Liliana Jesuíno. "PROSPECTIVE TEACHERS’ PERSPECTIVES ABOUT AN INTERDISCIPLINARY LEARNING SCENARIO INVOLVING PHYSICS AND STATISTICS." In 10th annual International Conference of Education, Research and Innovation. IATED, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21125/iceri.2017.0953.
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G. Cárdenas, J. Rubén, Francisco Mugica, and Àngela Nebot. "A Prospective Fuzzy Approach for the Development of Integral Seismic Risk Scenarios for Barcelona, Spain." In Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0006485504390448.
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Maturana, Marcos Coelho, and Marcelo Ramos Martins. "Technique for Early Consideration of Human Reliability (TECHR): Applying a Generic Model in an Oil Tanker Operation to Study Scenarios of Collision." In ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2018-78678.
Full textAbstract:
In the oil sector, analysis, evaluation, and management of risk are vital, considering the accidents potential severity with respect to human life, environment and property. Since the greater part of the accidents in this sector is caused by human factors, and given the lack of suitable tools for its consideration along the systems life cycle, especially in the design phase, the development of models and processes dedicated to human factors in risk analysis is essential. In this context, a technique for early consideration of human reliability (TECHR) was designed for developing a prospective human performance model which can be exploited in the system design phase and which can be updated along the system life cycle. TECHR is based on the use of expert opinion in relation to systems that operate or have operated in recent years to obtain estimates of the probabilities of the various types of human error which may occur during the performance of a specific action. This paper briefly presents the application of a prospective human performance model — obtained by the TECHR — in the study of an oil tanker operation, focusing the human factor quantification in scenarios of collision. In this work, the actions presented in a previous fault tree — for the vessel operation — are quantified considering the mentioned model, and the results are discussed in view of the previous results of this fault tree.
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Abreu, Danilo Taverna Martins Pereira de, Marcos Coelho Maturana, and Marcelo Ramos Martins. "Development of Accidental Scenarios Involving Human Errors for Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters." In ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-18996.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The navigation in restricted waters imposes several challenges when compared to open sea navigation. Smaller dimensions, higher traffic density and the dynamics of obstacles such as sandbanks are examples of contributors to the difficulty. Due to these aspects, local experienced maritime pilots go onboard in order to support the ship’s crew with their skills and specific regional knowledge. Despite these efforts, several accidents still occur around the world. In order to contribute to a better understanding of the events composing accidental sequences, this paper presents a hybrid modelling specific for restricted waters. The main techniques used are the fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. The former provides a framework to investigate the causes, while the latter allows modelling the sequence of actions necessary to avoid an accident. The models are quantified using statistical data available in the literature and a prospective human performance model developed by the Technique for Early Consideration of Human Reliability (TECHR). The results include combined estimates of human error probabilities and technical failure probabilities, which can be used to inform the causation factor for a waterway risk analysis model. In other words, given that the ship encounters a potential accidental scenario while navigating, the proposed models allow computing the failure probability that of the evasive actions sequence. The novelty of this work resides on the possibility of explicitly considering dynamicity and recovery actions when computing the causation factor, what is not a typical feature of similar works. The results obtained were compared with several results available in the literature and have been shown to be compatible.