Academic literature on the topic 'Public Local Administration structures'

This paper discusses two contemporary trends in local decision-making. Firstly, there seems to be more centralised decision-making today than before in important policy fields such as welfare policy. Secondly, informal governance processes outside formal government structures open up for a substantial influence from non-elected political actors. The paper asserts that there is a connection between the trends, and argues that the centralisation tendencies in welfare issues might affect and encourage governance processes in other local policy arenas. These policy fields are mainly within the so-called ‘developmental policies’ that often facilitate more networking and partnership activities in ‘grey areas’ between the public, private and civil sectors in collective problem solving. Accordingly, more attention should be given to policy fields where governance networks operate, and the implications for revitalising democratic political participation should be studied. The paper concludes that the well-established rationales for local self-government and local democracy need to be reconsidered by taking into account these new decision-making structures.

In the debate on governance structures, it is often assumed that traditional political and administrative institutions are “hollowed-out” in favour of other actors at the international, national and local levels. But how valid is this assumption? By using a variant of the reputational method for studying power, local politicians in 30 Norwegian municipalities were asked to assess the power of other actors in different fields – the local administration, central government, local media, local pressure and interest groups, and international institutions like the EU – in relation to the perceived power of the political local council. The main conclusion is that three main actors are clearly perceived as more powerful than other actors: the local political council, the local administration and the state. Other actors were deemed much less influential, indicating that the power of local politicians may be rather large. Findings indicate that old hierarchical government structures seem still to be highly influential. In addition, the perceived power of local authorities varies across municipalities and within them. Implications for governance studies are discussed. KEYWORDS: • local self-government • governance structures • local authorities • hollowing-out hypothesis • Norway

The article presents citizens’ legislative initiative at the local level in Poland as a form of social participation. Poland is currently seeing a growing interest in public affairs on the part of citizens, which is especially noticeable at the local level. In the article, particular attention is paid to the importance of local self-government, which is the key element of a democratic state that provides its citizens with an opportunity to participate in exercising public power. The structures of Polish local administration are one of the fundamental manifestations effects of decentralization of public administration. It is through these structures that the citizens’ right to take socially important actions related to the satisfying of public needs stemming from living in the given territory is exercised. Citizens’ legislative initiative at the local level allows the members of local communities to submit a draft of a resolution to the local legislative body. The establishment of the legislative initiative of the members of the local communities in generally applicable legal regulations was a positive move, as it has created an opportunity to promote citizens’ local legislative initiative as an instrument allowing citizens to have actual influence over the functioning of local communities.

This paper considers the institutional and regulatory framework of local infrastructure services in Florida. Furthermore, it examines how decision-makers perceive the governance structures of publicly-owned utilities in this state. After reviewing the theory, the study describes the current system in terms of rate setting, investments, consumer protection and quality of service. A state-wide survey was developed to identify potential sources of tension between managers and politicians. The responses were supplemented by interviews with managers, enabling the authors to identify good practices of local governance, including the de-politicization of the decision-making and the managerial attention to sustainable approaches to funding infrastructure.

Emerging economic and social challenges prompted EU and national authorities to initiate and support localised or area-based partnership approaches to development. Such approaches involve enabling representatives from the state sector, social partners, community and voluntary groups to form collaborative partnership structures with competences in integrated local development in a defined geographical area. In terms of local development in Ireland, the most significant partnership structures that have emerged are LEADER Local Action Groups and Local Development Partnerships. Extensive studies of partnership processes, outputs and limitations in Ireland and throughout the EU reveal a number of limitations in the current degree of synergy between partnership and mainstream approaches. Emerging development approaches to the provision of social welfare and public services increasingly involve new forms of public-voluntary and public-private partnerships.

The issue of the size of public administration is commonly researched. Most of the times this topic is tackled from a macroeconomic perspective, considering local and central administration together. That is why this paper uniquely takes on the local perspective only, analysing the size of local government (i.e. size of public administration at the local level) in Polish regions during the period of 2009–2013. Based on the existing literature, we chose five variables of the size of local administration at the commune level connected with employment and reflecting costs related to the functioning of local administration structures. All indicators were expressed per capita. With the usage of ANOVA, we proved significant differences in the size of public administration across regions for all variables. To compare the size of local governments across regions, we ranked all variables individually, and then we calculated the average ranking for all variables. Our findings have clear implications for policy makers, providing information about the regions with the biggest/smallest size of public administration at the local level. Our study suggests simple and accessible tool for continuous reporting on the size of public administration in order to monitor costs also in the upcoming years. The results of the monitoring could also be used for the establishment of an incentive program for regional policy representatives.

In a drive to make local government as interesting and popular as generations of Westminster's politicians have believed it ought to be, the reform of local government as become as English an obsession as the weather. Throughout the 20th century a range of subjective criteria have been developed to justify reorganisations of local government, along with increasingly complex models of how subjective measures can be used to justify change. The complex and time-consuming procedures that characterised the 1929 'review' of local government were compounded by a layer of additional complexity in the, eventually abandoned, review of 1945. By then the development of urban spatial planning as a discipline had given policy makers a renewed optimism in their ability to effect scientific change, and the complexity of post war local government reorganisation increased incrementally. The Government in 1992 and again in 2003, avoided the question of identifying what the purpose of local government was, and establishing cross-party consensus on how it might be established. Instead, local administration has become synonymous with local democracy, whilst being referred to under a generic title of 'local government'. Proposals to reform one have created concerns regarding the future of the other. This confusion, along with a general lack of interest by the general public has led to a scenario where government ministers have become defenders of the status quo, or champions of change, but rarely informed arbitors of reform. With the benefit of 170 years of evidence to draw from, objectives that stood little chance of success remain stated outcomes of local government reform. It will be shown that fanciful claims have not been consigned into the dustbin of history, but have incrementally produced heirs.

Dans l’image traditionnelle, la Chine est un État unitaire typiquement centralisé. Un tel concept, même à l’ère de Mao Zedong, n’est pas très précis, car à l’époque, la Chine a quand-même connu au moins trois cycles de déconcentration/centralisation. Alors, après la réforme d’«ouverture vers l’extérieur» par Deng Xiaoping, la Chine a établi des relations contrastées entre le central et le local. Deng Xiaoping a adopté une décentralisation des compétences par les mesures administratives et transfère les « intérêts » à l’échelon local, ce qui induit une grande latitude pour ce dernier, en particulier, en matière de développement de l’économie. Ainsi, une décentralisation non institutionnalisée a conduit l’échelon local à devenir de facto une entité administrative qui maîtrise les ressources et les compétences au nom de l’État, plutôt qu’obéissant aveuglément au central. Derrière ce changement, on voit l’émergence et la force motrice des intérêts locaux, avec une décentralisation approfondie, les gouvernements locaux ont reçu beaucoup plus de pouvoirs discrétionnaires, surtout pour ce qui concerne les affaires locales, et en même temps, à travers la maîtrise des ressources et des pouvoirs, les gouvernements locaux possèdent les «jetons» dans la négociation avec le gouvernement central, ayant pour objet et effet d’exprimer les intérêts locaux et d’influencer les décisions du central. Pour maintenir sa primauté, le gouvernement central a adopté une centralisation sélective pour faire face à cette décentralisation de facto afin d’arriver à un équilibre entre le central et le local. Cependant, une décentralisation non institutionnalisée, principalement à travers les négociations pour atteindre un équilibre entre les deux précédents, semble une approche qui n’est toujours pas stable, de telle sorte que la recherche d’une normativité des relations entre le central et le local est devenue un objectif à long terme
In the traditional image, China is a typically centralized unitary country, such a concept, even in the era of Mao Zedong, is not very precise, because at that time, China has even experienced at least three cycles of decentralisation/centralisation. So, through the reform and open by Deng Xiaoping, China has formed contrasting relations between central and local. Deng Xiaoping has adopted decentralization through administrative measures to decentralize the power and transfer “interests” to the local government, so that, the local government has a major initiative, in particular, in the development of the economy. Thus, the non-institutional decentralization leads the local government to become de facto an administrative entity which controls resources and power in the name of the central government. So the local government is not just obeying the central government like before. Behind this change is the emergence and the driving force of local interests. With a deep decentralization, the local governments have received much more discretionary power, especially in the local affairs and at the same time, through the control of resources and powers, the local governments have the “bargain chip” to negotiate with the central government, so that they could express local interests and influence the decisions of the central government. In order to maintain central authority, the central government has adopted a selective centralization for this de facto centralization, so as to achieve a balance between the central government and the local government. However, the non-institutional decentralization mainly through negotiation to achieve a balance between the two preceding ones, seems to be an approach that is still not stable, so that the search for a normativity of relations between central and local has become a long-term goal

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, School of Public Environmental Affairs and Political Science, 2008.
Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on Oct. 5, 2009). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-02, Section: A, page: 0685. Adviser: Elinor Ostrom.

State and local governments play an important role in financing and delivering public services in the United States. In 2008, state and local governments collected 57 percent of total federal, state, and local revenue (Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, Tax Policy Center, 2009). The decentralization of fiscal responsibility has enabled a high degree of variation in state and local tax structures to emerge. This dissertation presents two empirical studies that extend the positive literature on state and local tax policy. The extant literature contains evidence of a direct relationship between voter ideology and state and local tax progressivity. However, the measures of voter ideology that were used either did not capture differences in the intensity of voter liberalism across states, did not vary over time, or were beset with other limitations. This study uses the measure of average voter liberalism developed by Berry et al (1998). I find that average voter liberalism is significantly and positively-related to progressivity. However, the effect is small in magnitude. The ethnic congruence between the poor and the non-poor is positively-related to progressivity and the effects are economically significant. The degree of tension between ethnic groups, measured with an index of ethnic residential segregation, is significantly and inversely-related to progressivity. Both variables are statistically significant even with average voter liberalism held constant. It is possible that the ethnic demographic context reflects aspects of voters’ redistributive preferences that are not captured by measures of ideology. Researchers have found relationships between states’ tax exporting capacities and the tax structures they adopt. Chapter 4 is the first study to examine the relationship between state tax exporting capacities and the business sales taxes. I find that the effective sales tax rate that governments impose on business purchases is not significantly influenced by a state’s capacity to export business taxes. It is, however, significantly and positively affected by a state’s ability to export taxes on households through the deductibility of state and local taxes under the federal income tax. A decrease in this offset is predicted to lead to an increase in the effective business sales tax rate, ceteris paribus.

Mestrado em Economia e Políticas Públicas
A repartição actual de recursos financeiros intragovernamentais em Angola é feita de forma discricionária. Cabe ao ministro do Planeamento e/ou Governador provincial propor o montante a ser transferido para as administrações municipais. Os municípios de regiões petrolíferas e diamantíferas são beneficiados financeiramente pelas receitas consignadas derivadas das receitas fiscais associadas à exploração daqueles recursos minerais, para além de terem acesso, como os demais municípios, a outras receitas consignadas. Esta situação agrava a disparidade fiscal orçamental entre os municípios angolanos. Propôs-se um modelo de transferências intragovernamentais mais justo e eficiente, tendo como critério principal para atribuição do Fundo Geral (80% das transferências) a população de cada município, e promove a equidade entre os municípios através de um Fundo de Coesão (20% das transferências) a ser financiado por uma percentagem das receitas petrolíferas e diamantíferas consignadas. Os municípios não sede de província, cuja população se situa abaixo de 80% da população do município sede, habilitam-se ao Fundo de Coesão. O modelo adapta-se melhor ao momento actual de aprofundamento da desconcentração administrativa rumo às autarquias locais e a uma descentralização efectiva. Espera-se também que a sociedade civil dos municípios funcione como um órgão de fiscalização da implementação do modelo e da gestão dos recursos a nível local. Finalmente, a adopção do modelo dependerá do equilibro entre aqueles que perdem e os que ganham com o novo critério de afectação de recursos financeiros intragovernamentais.
The intra-governmental fiscal sharing in Angola is currently done in a discretionary way. It is the responsibility of the Ministry of Planning and/or of the Provincial Governor to propose the amount to be transferred to the municipal administrations. The municipalities located in petrol and diamond regions are in a beneficial position since they receive both the taxes that originate from fiscal taxes due to the exploitation of mineral resources and other taxes that are general to the overall municipalities. This situation worsens the fiscal imbalance amongst Angolan municipalities. In the present article a fairer and more efficient model for intra-governmental fiscal transfer is proposed, having as main criteria the population data for the attribution of the General Fund (80% of transfers). It also promotes equity between municipalities by the creation of a Cohesion Fund (20% of transfers) that is funded by a percentage of allocated incomes of petrol and diamond exploitation. Municipalities, which are not Province headquarters, and which population is below 80% of the headquarter municipality population, can apply to the Cohesion Fund. This model is particularly adapted to the current process of gradual administrative deconcentration aiming to achieve local governments and an effective decentralisation. It is also expected that local civil society play as watching dog role, monitoring and evaluating the model implementation as well as resource management at the local level. Finally the model adoption and implementation will depend on the balance between those who loose and those who win the new criteria of fiscal resource intra-governmental allocation.

The content of the paper is the analysis of the development of territorial structure of public administration in the Czech Republic. The contribution of the paper is the evaluation of the present state of the Czech public administration after the introduced administrative reforms that however have not been completed from the viewpoint of their proper intentions. The foreground character of the present paper is rooted in the solution of the most pressing problems of structural design the area public administration function, that have not yet been corrected by the up to now provided reform steps. In the process of the working of the individual designs, the author has been considering the historic development of the stipulated problems since the year 1848, and the individual views of specialists engaged in the public administration in the Czech Republic and the actual designs provided by the Ministry of the Interior. Among the chief steps that would improve the present state of the public administration in the Czech Republic the author classifies the abolition of law No. 36/1060 Sb., the territorial division of the state, the abolition of municipalities of the 2nd rank and the reduction of the competences of small municipalities with delegated province.

This dissertation investigates the effects of natural disasters and political institutions on municipalities' climate change policies. Although most theoretical frameworks on policy adoption highlight the roles of extreme events as exogenous factors influencing policy change, most studies tend to focus on the effects of extreme events on policy change at the national level. Additionally, the existing theoretical frameworks explaining local policy adoption and public service provision do not pay attention to the roles of extreme events in local governments' policy choices. To fill those gaps, this dissertation explores the roles of natural disasters and political institutions on municipal governments' climate change policies. It does this by applying the theory of focusing events to local climate mitigation and adaptation actions. Based on the policy change framework, the political market model, and the institutional collective action frameworks, this dissertation develops and tests hypotheses to examine the effects of natural disasters and political institutions on municipalities' climate mitigation and adaptation policies. The dissertation uses 2010 National League of Cities (NLC) sustainability surveys and the 2010 International City/County Management Association (ICMA) sustainability survey to test the hypotheses. Analytical results show that floods and droughts influence local climate change policies and suggest that local governments can take advantage of extreme events when initiating a policy change. The results also suggest that political institutions can shape the effects of natural disasters on municipalities' climate mitigation and adaptation actions.

The transformed municipality – Economic and social growth in Örnsköldsvik 1997-2007

Author: Kristina Hansson

This thesis focuses on the economic and social growth in the municipality of Örnsköldsvik. It is a single case study and the municipality is studied through economic theories concerning regional growth in the period of 1997-2007. The aim is to analyse whether these theories, such as Åke E. Anderssons and Ulf Strömquists K-society, and other more or less microeconomic assumptions, also are applicable in smaller local contexts. The aim is fulfilled through a mix of text analyses, interviews with leading politicians, civil servants and executives, together with definitions of several quantitative characteristics of economic and social growth. Alternative theories in the thesis concern identity, trust and social capital. Seven independent variables are studied: infrastructure, economic and commercial policy, steering by goals, streamlining, public purchase, marketing and higher education. The results show that while Örnsköldsvik has experienced an extraordinary economic growth, the social growth lags behind. The conclusion is therefore, that economic theories are not enough to explain both economic and social growth at the municipality level. This strengthens the assumption that the explanation to municipal growth in reality lays in the local forces.

Keywords: structural change, local growth, municipal taxes, public- private cooperation, state-subsidized stimulating measures

AbstractThe international community of public administration and administrative sciences shows a great interest in the basic features of the German administrative system. The German public administration with its formative decentralisation (called: administrative federalism) is regarded as a prime example of multilevel governance and strong local self-government. Furthermore, over the past decades, the traditional profile of the German administrative system has significantly been reshaped and remoulded through reforms, processes of modernisation and the transformation process in East Germany. Studies on the German administrative system should focus especially on key institutional features of public administration; changing relationships between public administration, society and the private sector; administrative reforms at different levels of the federal system; and new challenges and modernisation approaches, such as digitalisation, open government and better regulation. The publication is following this structure in four parts with 22 chapters.

AbstractAfter 1990, the rupture of the politico-administrative system and transformation of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) was essentially shaped by the process of German unification and the GDR’s integration into the ‘old’ Federal Republic. Thus, basic constitutional and institutional issues, such as legal rule (Rechtsstaat)-based administration, inclusion in the European Union, were (‘exogenously’) pre-determined by the GDR’s accession to the ‘old’ Federal Republic. The chapter highlights East Germany’s politico-administrative transformation after 1990 by addressing the organisational and personnel dimensions of the remoulding and rebuilding of the administrative structures at the new Länder and local levels. Finally, notwithstanding the particularities of the ‘East German case’, it raises question whether there are lessons which other countries facing transition or transformation can draw from East Germany’s experience.

AbstractThis chapter gives an overview of public finance in Germany. In the first part, it describes the process of public budgeting, the main principles, and the budget cycle. Finally, it reports on budget reforms. Subsequently, it delivers information on the volume and structure of expenditure and revenue, the latter with a special focus on the tax system, the system of multilevel tax distribution among the levels of government and on public debt. The chapter refers also to the legal framework for public budgeting and accounting standards that differ between the levels of the Federation and the states. Some special information on local finance in Germany is also included.

AbstractThe chapter analyses recent reforms in the multilevel system of the Länder, specifically territorial, functional and structural reforms, which represent three of the most crucial and closely interconnected reform trajectories at the subnational level. It sheds light on the variety of reform approaches pursued in the different Länder and also highlights some factors that account for these differences. The transfer of state functions to local governments is addressed as well as the restructuring of Länder administrations (e.g. abolishment of the meso level of the Länder administration and of single-purpose state agencies) and the rescaling of territorial boundaries at county and municipal levels, including a brief review of the recently failed (territorial) reforms in Eastern Germany.

AbstractThis chapter describes the variety and levels of local self-government bodies in Germany. It portrays that local authorities (municipalities, cities and counties) are responsible for performing both their own tasks and large parts of federal and Land laws (the communal administrations and especially their so-called double head function: local self-government and lowest level of state administration). The local authorities mainly differentiate themselves from federal and regional authorities by the mandates of their elected representative bodies (municipal council, city council and county council). The head of a local administration (mayor or county commissioner) is also usually directly elected by the citizens.

Main questions of this study are “How much autonomy?” and “Has autonomy take to feudalism?” Although the resolution of issue according to effective, efficient, rational and fair principles about the income distribution between the central administration and the municipalities is a precondition of permanent and efficient services of local governments.This study aims to identify regional goverments tasks and improve services of central governments with taxes (VAT) distirbution method. We also aim to increase taxes that are collected from regional governments with the method of glocalization. In addition, if sharing criteria was different, it would how a change between the years 2003-2011 will be investigated. During the comprehensive analysis of these years with public revenues on the basis of VAT, local government’s expenditure, criteria/data to be applied in the share of public revenues to municipalities whether changing the method financing of municipalities can make local governments more efficient and productive will be explored. In a political structure that municipalities are financed from the center, it is very difficult to find an appropriate combination between equality and justice in the distribution of income. Local governments must have privileges which is proportionate with responsibilities on own mandates and source of income for producing to serve as an effective and efficient local services. The results show that if the central governments give budget to regional government according to taxes that are collected in this region, productivity of taxation increase and regional government can collect taxes easier.

The Norwegian Public Roads Administration is running a project ‘Ferry free coastal route E39’ which includes replacing ferry crossings by bridges or tunnels across eight fjords in Western Norway. Since most of the fjords are wide and deep, traditional fixed links are not possible to be constructed. Therefore, floating bridge and tunnel concepts are proposed for the fjord-crossing project. Because floating bridges and tunnels have many structural components close to the water surface, a critical concern of accidental ship collision loads is then raised. Considering the large displacement and high speed of the passing ships, the interactions between the bridge structure and the ship bow can be significant should collision occurs. It is therefore important to carefully evaluate bridge response subjected to ship collision loads in the design process. This paper presents a case study of ship collision analysis of the floating bridge concept for Bjørnafjorden. Two possible collision scenarios, i.e. ship-pontoon and ship-girder collisions, are considered. First, local structural deformation and damage are numerically investigated by detailed finite element models using LS-DYNA. Second, bridge global response under ship collision loads are simulated in USFOS. By combining the local and global analyses, a comprehensive overview of bridge response under ship collision load can be obtained.

The role of local self-government is to increase the quality of life of inhabitants while respecting the principles of sustainable development and at the same time to ensure the adequacy, availability and quality of public services provided in its territory. The current structure of local self-government in the conditions of Slovakia clearly points to the differences between municipalities, which is illustrated by their different number in individual size categories, although they have the same competencies. Cities and municipalities in the conditions of Slovakia to provide original and transferred competencies mostly independently, but especially in the field of performance of the transferred state administration they enter into mutual cooperation. We evaluated the types of inter-municipal cooperation within two basic groups of inter-municipal cooperation - the traditional forms of cooperation and innovative forms of cooperation. The analysis showed that in the conditions of Slovakia, the most traditional way of inter-municipal cooperation is represented by joint municipal offices. We have also identified innovative approaches in the field of inter-municipal cooperation - such as agreement on shared services, co-ownership´s agency or the SMART cities concept. Such a new inter-municipal cooperation can thus be an important and beneficial change, which can help solve problems arising from the suboptimal size of individual municipalities.

Report considers the field of governance first at the level of constitutional institutions and tradition, addressing the development of Turkey’s constitutional politics and contemporary debates as its subject matter. Secondly, the report includes the primary institutional structures relevant to establishing constitutional institutions into its subject matter. In this context, the political party regimes, electoral system, and public administration must be handled with their current structures and problems. Whether at the level of the constitution or the primary institutional structures, analyses are debated in terms of the socio-administrative dynamics that are determinant in shaping these structures, the effects these dynamics have on the formation of institutional structures and administrative traditions, and finally their impact on the functioning of Turkish politics. When creating the vision document, the report will identify Turkey’s stance within global debates through both its similarities, as well as its peculiarities to other nations. In this context, concrete and practicable recommendations are made to improve the functionality of the Presidential System, which was introduced with the 2017 Constitutional Referendum.

Why research Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Scotland? Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology sheds light on the first colonisation and subsequent early inhabitation of Scotland. It is a growing and exciting field where increasing Scottish evidence has been given wider significance in the context of European prehistory. It extends over a long period, which saw great changes, including substantial environmental transformations, and the impact of, and societal response to, climate change. The period as a whole provides the foundation for the human occupation of Scotland and is crucial for understanding prehistoric society, both for Scotland and across North-West Europe. Within the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods there are considerable opportunities for pioneering research. Individual projects can still have a substantial impact and there remain opportunities for pioneering discoveries including cemeteries, domestic and other structures, stratified sites, and for exploring the huge evidential potential of water-logged and underwater sites. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology also stimulates and draws upon exciting multi-disciplinary collaborations. Panel Task and Remit The panel remit was to review critically the current state of knowledge and consider promising areas of future research into the earliest prehistory of Scotland. This was undertaken with a view to improved understanding of all aspects of the colonization and inhabitation of the country by peoples practising a wholly hunter-fisher-gatherer way of life prior to the advent of farming. In so doing, it was recognised as particularly important that both environmental data (including vegetation, fauna, sea level, and landscape work) and cultural change during this period be evaluated. The resultant report, outlines the different areas of research in which archaeologists interested in early prehistory work, and highlights the research topics to which they aspire. The report is structured by theme: history of investigation; reconstruction of the environment; the nature of the archaeological record; methodologies for recreating the past; and finally, the lifestyles of past people – the latter representing both a statement of current knowledge and the ultimate aim for archaeologists; the goal of all the former sections. The document is reinforced by material on-line which provides further detail and resources. The Palaeolithic and Mesolithic panel report of ScARF is intended as a resource to be utilised, built upon, and kept updated, hopefully by those it has helped inspire and inform as well as those who follow in their footsteps. Future Research The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarized under four key headings:  Visibility: Due to the considerable length of time over which sites were formed, and the predominant mobility of the population, early prehistoric remains are to be found right across the landscape, although they often survive as ephemeral traces and in low densities. Therefore, all archaeological work should take into account the expectation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic ScARF Panel Report iv encountering early prehistoric remains. This applies equally to both commercial and research archaeology, and to amateur activity which often makes the initial discovery. This should not be seen as an obstacle, but as a benefit, and not finding such remains should be cause for question. There is no doubt that important evidence of these periods remains unrecognised in private, public, and commercial collections and there is a strong need for backlog evaluation, proper curation and analysis. The inadequate representation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic information in existing national and local databases must be addressed.  Collaboration: Multi-disciplinary, collaborative, and cross- sector approaches must be encouraged – site prospection, prediction, recognition, and contextualisation are key areas to this end. Reconstructing past environments and their chronological frameworks, and exploring submerged and buried landscapes offer existing examples of fruitful, cross-disciplinary work. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology has an important place within Quaternary science and the potential for deeply buried remains means that geoarchaeology should have a prominent role.  Innovation: Research-led projects are currently making a substantial impact across all aspects of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology; a funding policy that acknowledges risk and promotes the innovation that these periods demand should be encouraged. The exploration of lesser known areas, work on different types of site, new approaches to artefacts, and the application of novel methodologies should all be promoted when engaging with the challenges of early prehistory.  Tackling the ‘big questions’: Archaeologists should engage with the big questions of earliest prehistory in Scotland, including the colonisation of new land, how lifestyles in past societies were organized, the effects of and the responses to environmental change, and the transitions to new modes of life. This should be done through a holistic view of the available data, encompassing all the complexities of interpretation and developing competing and testable models. Scottish data can be used to address many of the currently topical research topics in archaeology, and will provide a springboard to a better understanding of early prehistoric life in Scotland and beyond.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.