Academic literature on the topic 'Public transport service by bus'

AbstractThe main aim of this study is threefold. First, it tries to assess the passenger satisfaction with public bus transport services in the city of Lucknow in India. Second, it tries to examine the service quality attributes that influence the passenger satisfaction. Third, it tries to evaluate the relative importance of service quality attributes to find out the priority for service quality improvements to enhance passenger satisfaction. The study is based on a survey of objective as well as subjective questions conducted between May and July 2014. Five major bus stops of Lucknow were selected for the survey. Total 148 respondents were randomly selected to elicit their overall satisfaction and factors that influence their satisfaction in the use of public bus transport services in Lucknow using a self-rated questionnaire. The collected sample of responses is subjected to principal component analysis, a statistical technique for dimensionality reduction of the dataset, and descriptive analysis. The result of theses analyses shows that passengers are mostly dissatisfied with public bus transport services in Lucknow. Using principal component analysis, five underlying factors were extracted that influenced passenger satisfaction with public bus transport services in the city. Out of these five factors, comfort and safety has the greatest impact on overall satisfaction, followed by the adequacy of capacity of public bus transport services, orderly and clean environment inside buses, elegant design of buses and bus stops, and accessibility to public bus transport services in the city. The study thus provides a direction for public bus transport administration in the city to understand the gaps that exist and try to fill them to improve its services so that passenger satisfaction can be enhanced and consequently more people can be attracted towards public bus transport.

Growing demand for transport activities has raised numerous transport problems, mainly traffic congestion, environmental and energy issues. Efficient public bus services can be one of the sustainable solutions for meeting local transport demands. But the inefficient operation of public bus services in most of the developing countries has worsened the situation. The multiple service providers, in such open market, compete with each other for their own benefits by adding the number of bus services rather than providing excellent services to users. Accordingly, the number of buses increases that result in higher energy demand and GHG emission. This paper thus aims to analyze the impact of such informal and unregulated transport system prevalent in most of the developing countries focusing mainly on energy and the environment point of views. The study is carried out for the case of Kathmandu valley where the public bus service is owned and operated by multiple service providers. ArcGIS is used to model a public bus network using data available from an open street map. Potential Impact on energy and environment is analyzed using energy modeling tool LEAP. Results show that considerable improvement in energy and emissions can be achieved by improving the public bus services. This paper thus highlights the need for investment in improving access to good public bus services for the sustainable transport planning of the valley.

Limited-stop bus services are a highly efficient way to release more potential of the public transit system to meet travel demand, especially under constraints on vehicle fleet size and transportation infrastructure. This work first proposes a visualized fare table for the design of limited-stop bus services along a public transit corridor, along which many lines of public transit carry a heavy load of demand back and forth every working day. Based on this proposed fare table, a set of fare strategies and desired aims of fare policy, a differentiated fare structure is established to improve social equity and increase revenue. The nature of the structure can help travellers understand how to be charged between their origins and destinations (e.g. flat, time-based, stop-based or quality-based pricing) and then plan their trips efficiently. Secondly, a model is formulated to minimize the total social cost in designing a fixed demand limited-stop bus service system with a differentiated fare structure. Thirdly, numerical results are carried out with sensitivity analysis within three scenarios of differentiated fare structures. It is found that a differentiated fare structure has a great effect on passenger path choice behaviour and resulting optimal design of bus services. An attractive feature of this differentiated fare structure is that it could not only enhance the operator’s revenue and social equity but also reduce passenger transfers and social cost.

This paper identifies components of satisfaction of public bus service in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia. Factor analysis is used to analyze 24 parameters satisfactions of public buses. This study succeeded in developing three dimensions of public bus service attributes, namely comfort, accessibility and safety and found that there is a slight difference in satisfaction between the minibus and bus transit, but users agreed that overcrowded and felt unsafe during the night were among the most significant attributes that affect their satisfaction. Transportation authorities can use these findings to enhance the quality of life of public transport users in the future. Keywords: Public transportation, city bus, factor analysis, customer satisfaction. eISSN 2514-7528 © 2018. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA cE-Bs by e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open-access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia. DOI:https://doi.org/10.21834/jabs.v3i10.311

The urban public transportation is an important network system that many urban residences have come to rely on for accessibility and linkage to key urban areas. Although in many urban centers, private transport services is also a preferred mode of transport for many people, however, the significance of public transport remains a perceived need of the city from the standpoint of efficient and timely link between urban areas, control of traffic congestion, and impact on the urban air quality. For the public to maintain their patronage in public transport, reasonable public satisfaction with the services offered is indispensable. Kota Kinabalu city bus is a government-operated bus company started in 2009, but is gradually loosing public interest with low patronage, resulting in increase in personal vehicle traffic. This study aims to understand the reasons for low user patronage of city bus service by investigating the efficiency and quality of service provided. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected using questionnaire survey and open ended interview. Data is analyzed using inferential statistics analysis and factor analysis. Findings reveals that majority of the users are female of Malaysia nationality in age group 18-24 years and predominantly from low-income group. Overall users rated satisfaction is low because poor services in key area such as Disabled-friend Facility, Bus Network Coverage, Overcrowding and Vehicle Cleanliness. Comfort and Safety were also a major area of concern. It was evident from the study that the users are willing to pay more for improved quality City but. It can thus be inferred that the users of public bus service are not necessarily looking for cheap services but will appreciate improved services at the reasonable price

Public transport transforms urban communities and the lives of citizens living in them by stimulating economic growth, promoting sustainable lifestyles and providing a greater quality of life. Globally, the healthiest cities have one thing in common, a public and active transport network that does not depend on each person owning a personal motorised vehicle. Growing dependence on the automobile has created a multitude of problems, some of which public transport can help solve. Adverse social, environmental and health effects related to automobile emissions and car-dependency suggest that using public transport will result in a decrease in an individual’s carbon footprint, will lessen overall CO2 emissions, and will help to ease urban traffic congestion as well as encourage more effective and efficient land use. With many urban areas experiencing ongoing traffic problems, it is acknowledged that any sustainable long-term solution must entail a significant public transport element. The aim of this research study, conducted in November and December 2017, was to obtain essential baseline information on service user satisfaction levels with the existing public bus services in Galway City, Ireland. By measuring levels of satisfaction, it is possible to build our overall knowledge of the public transport network and thus identify improvements in the service that would lead to an increase in bus passenger numbers and result in reductions in the amount of cars on the roads. Results suggest deficiencies in public transport infrastructure, such as Dedicated Bus Lanes, and the lack of attention to customer services are hindering improvements in the public bus service.

Many cities in developing countries are facing challenges of providing quality public transport facilities to the public. The demand-responsive transport (DRT) initiatives in some cities have helped in providing transportation alternatives to the travelers, and in filling the gap between demand and supply. Recently introduced DRT initiatives in Lahore included the mobile app-based Airlift and Swvl bus services. This article is aimed at evaluating the travelers’ attitudes toward mobile application (app)–based DRT services in Lahore with the help of a questionnaire survey. A questionnaire was designed consisting of travelers’ personal and travel information and their perceptions on selected attributes of Airlift and Swvl bus services. A total of 440 samples were collected through interviews. An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) revealed three factors of service quality, that is, Accessibility and Scheduling Attributes (ASA), Instrumental Attributes (IA), and Service Attraction Attributes (SAA). The results of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) showed that the ASA, IA, and SAA are significant determinants of travelers’ attitudes toward the existence of Airlift and Swvl bus services in Lahore. These factors have strong correlations with travelers’ intentions to use Airlift and Swvl services in the future. The waiting time at a stop, travelers’ income, vehicle ownership, trip purpose, and profession are also significant in determining the travelers’ attitudes and preferences with app-based public transport services. These findings would be helpful for the service providers and transport planners for making appropriate policies to improve the quality of these services.

Encouraging the younger generation to use public transport can revolutionise the way that citizens commute in the future; hence, municipalities must provide good public transport services to encourage their use. A free bus service was introduced in Penang, Malaysia, to support the sustainable agenda and to provide transport for low-income groups. However, the lack of ridership resulted in the service being far from achieving its target. This study assessed young adults’ perceptions of the current free bus service in Penang to design a strategy to attract them to use the free bus. In this study, six focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with young adults aged between 18 and 25 years old studying in three different higher institutions located along the route of the free bus. The data collected were analysed using thematic analysis, in which four areas were identified—free service, reliability, information provision, and attractive service. Finally, this paper provides valuable input on initiatives to further encourage young adults to use the free bus service in Penang.

The urban bus service system is one of the most important components of a public transport system. Thus, exploring the spatial configuration of the urban bus service system promotes an understanding of the quality of bus services. Such an understanding is of great importance to urban transport planning and policy making. In this study, we investigated the spatial characteristics of an urban bus service system by using the complex network approach. First, a three-step workflow was developed to collect a bus operating dataset from a public website. Then, we utilized the P-space method to represent the bus service network by connecting all bus stop pairs along each bus line. With the constructed bus network, a set of network analysis indicators were calculated to quantify the role of nodes in the network. A case study of Shenzhen, China was implemented to understand the statistical properties and spatial characteristics of the urban bus network configuration. The empirical findings can provide insights into the statistical laws and distinct convenient areas in a bus service network, and consequently aid in optimizing the allocation of bus stops and routes.

The fast development of urbanization and development have led to an increase in the difficulties with regards to satisfying the demand of public transport. The quantized evaluation analysis of urban public transport performance is useful to identify its shortcomings and to also enable further optimization of the transport system. This facilitates the improvement of the systems quality of service and provides the means to reduce operating costs. Furthermore, the quantification of the bus lines performance evaluation is crucial in raising the systems operational efficiency and improving the operators level of service. In this study, the data collected from Hangzhou Bus Companys operating income table is evaluated to assess bus performance by Excel and Deap software. The study constructs the conceptual framework that evaluates the performance evaluation of the single bus line, and divides the implementation process of the single bus line service into two stages. Building the Output-BCC (Banker Charnes Cooper) model with DEA method to calculate the operational efficiency and service efficiency, then accesses the Hangzhou bus transport objectively and provides some suggestions.

Evaluation Problem: The Western Cape Provincial Government faces a public problem of declining service levels with respect of public bus transport services. Stemming from the public problem is the management problem of modelling choice behaviour of commuter stated choices for utility maximisation and therefore as a means of optimising the allocation of the Public Transport Operating Grant (PTOG) expenditure. Historically, differing perceptions amongst travellers, and the difficulties in quantifying these attributes, mean that they are rarely included (directly) within the modelling and appraisal process, or the associated utility computation (Crockett, Sinclair and Whelan. 2008:11). A combination of policies which would ensure that the discrete choices of commuters for an improved bus service are considered in a modal shift from the Golden Arrow Bus Services (Pty) Ltd (GABS) bus service to the MyCiTi Integrated Rapid Transit (IRT) service is required to be produced from this evaluation. Evaluation Approach: The evaluation brings together data and analytical information on a broader, more inclusive, societal model of the public transport service in Cape Town. It seeks to: - identify the value aspects of the public bus transport infrastructure and services, - identify and model choice behaviour of GABS bus service users, - generate preference valuations for public transport service attributes and - determine the effect of service attributes on modal choice namely GABS and a hypothetical MyCiTi service area. A discrete choice experiment models the stated choices of respondents who were made to choose between various combinations of service levels during the morning and afternoon peak commuting times. The commuters' willingness to pay for a switch to a new MyCiTi IRT-type service from their current choice of an existing GABS bus service is estimated. The choice data is collected by means of an on-board bus survey along three particular routes in Table View, a West Coast Region in the City of Cape Town, South Africa and where the new MyCiTi service is being introduced. The analyses will show which service attributes are significant in commuter mode choice behaviour, such as changes travel time, fare prices and other significant service attributes, as well as which level of service would maximise utility for the target population. Major Evaluative Conclusions: The evaluation found that the DCE choice modelling approach used was unfamiliar to the respondents and would most likely not have been completely understood. Although the factorial approach to designing the experiment could identify an exhaustive list of value aspects to choose from, the need to adopt a fractional factorial in the final design does necessitate further experimentation to produce a more comprehensive choice model, inclusive of more service attributes and with the discrete choice models corroborated with revealed preference data. Seat availability was by far the most significant choice determinant and the lack thereof would be a serious deterrent to a modal shift to using the new MyCiTi service. The number of transfers during the trip and the distance of the bus stop from home were also significant choice determinants. The choice models indicated that the female commuters particularly, were willing to pay for the new MyCiTi bus-type service. In the absence of suitable seating capacity, a reduced travel time would be required to reduce the standing times and make the MyCiTi service an attractive option. The analysis produced inconclusive data for ridership predictions, although it can generally be said that provided sufficient seating, the GABS bus users will be willing to switch modes, as there is no indication in the data to suggest otherwise. Considering the preferences expressed for the service attributes, a hypothetical service can be proposed, with a service mix of R9.00 per trip, that would take 45 minutes and that offered the commuter a seat for the journey. The first bus stop would be no more than two kilometres away and the journey would consist of no more than one transfer to reach the final destination.

The context of this study is the increasing need for public transport as issues over high private vehicle usage are becoming increasingly obvious. Public transport services need to compete with private transport to improve patronage, and issues with reliability need to be addressed. Bus bunching affects reliability through disruptions to the scheduled headways. The purpose of this study was to collect and analyse data to compare how travel time and dwell time vary, to explore the variation of key variables, and to better understand the sources of these variations. The Orbiter bus service in Christchurch was used as a case study, as it is particularly vulnerable to bus bunching. The dwell time was found to be more variable than travel time. It appeared the Canterbury earthquake had significantly reduced the average speeds for the Orbiter service. In 1964, Newell and Potts described a basic bus bunching theory, which was used as the basis for an Excel bus bunching model. This model allows input variables to vary stochastically. Random values were generated from four specified distributions derived from manually collected data, allowing variance across all bus platforms and buses. However the complexity resulted in stability and difficulty in achieving convergence, so the model was run in single Monte Carlo simulations. The outputs were realistic and showed a higher degree of bunching behaviour than previous models. The model demonstrated bunching phenomena that had not been observed in previous models, including spontaneously un-pairing, overtaking of buses delayed at platforms, and odd-numbered bunches of three buses. Furthermore, the study identified areas of further research for data collection and model development.

Purpose - Transport is a common constant variable found in just about every aspect of our lives as well as commercial activities; this is so because transport enables accessibility to people, places and goods. The effective management of public passenger transport operations is a more complex and all-embracing concept than what it may appear at first glance. Wider dispersed work place locations and urban sprawl is on the rise driven by among other factors the increased rate of globalisation. A unique opportunity is then presented in a developing country like South Africa for effective planning and management of public passenger bus operations. In the main, the purpose of this case study research was to develop a more sustainable public passenger transport bus operation to better connect people, places and goods. The organisation that will be studied is Blunden Coach Tours a luxury and semi-lux coach Tour operator, operating from the Nelson Mandela Bay. Design / Methodology / Approach – This study employed the case study research approach which was based on the qualitative research paradigm as such allowed for in-depth description and analysis of the case as well as related phenomena in real world context. The researcher focused only on the public passenger bus transport operations in Nelson Mandela Bay thus assuming a single context focus with a single case namely the development of a more sustainable public passenger transport operations in Nelson Mandela Bay. An embedded multiple unit of analysis strategy was employed selecting a sample of key persons responsible for strategic operational areas at Blunden Coach tours, sub-contractors and suppliers. The case study employed an in-depth probing interview process in an effort to better comprehend occurrences within the actual context of the events observed. The secondary sources of information gathered were used to structure and backup the interview questions. Practical implications – The case study enabled thought provoking insight which by virtue of South Africa’s historical socio-economic landscape offered an unusual perspective of the South African bus transport scene with a particular focus on environmental, regulatory and socio-economic sustainability considerations. A limitation to the study – The lack of responses to the interview questions from some of the key role players in the bus industry who were contacted as well as some of the respondents interviewed. The lack of responses to some of the interview questions could be perceived as a limitation to validating the Summary drawn from the study.

The Andalusian sector of regular public passenger transport of general use, has beentraditionally characterized by being configured by a wide variety of operators of small andmedium-scale, where the concession contracts were the only and main economic activity.Over time, new trends have appeared on the market that have led to the evolution of thesector to other models. On the one hand, transformation of the business owner tocorporations, and secondly the penetration of large multinational companies which haveentered the sector through the acquisition and, on many occasions, absorbing existingconcession companies.This paper analyzes the changes experienced in the concession contracts related to theirchange of ownership and its impact on the current structure industry. The analysis showsan overview of the regular public transport system travelers utility road in Andalusia.The results are interesting for the planning and design of new concession contracts,extension approach of the current contracts and general optimization of the system forpromotion of a sustainable transport, which satisfies needs of users, respecting the rule offree market.In short, this paper aims to provide a deeper knowledge of the sector, from the point ofview of the operating companies that intergrates it, showing the evolution in existingbusiness structures.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3975

Public transport is the backbone of urban mobility, providing people with access to employment, education, trade and daily activities. It provides a special benefit to people who do not own a car and are dependent on well-organized public transport. The paper presents an analysis of the demand for public transport services in the Municipality of Stupnik, otherwise organized in the form of bus transport. The paper presents the methodology used, as well as the obtained results, and the associated discussion and conclusion.

The development of traffic that is conditioned by the high mobility of people, goods and services must be in line with the principles of sustainable development, but it is only possible if the consumption of renewable resources is less than natural renewal opportunities. The future is in implementation of innovative technologies such as telematics systems that offer not only technical solutions but also a new way of life, a new business approach and a new cultural aspect of living for all traffic participants. Advanced telematics solutions such as inflow management and speed limit management greatly help to solve traffic problems, like incidents, environmental pollution, traffic congestion, fuel consumption, etc. Impact of telematics can increase safety but can also introduce new risks for drivers that pose special challenges to traffic psychology and public health. In order to reduce traffic congestion, longer waiting times, environmental pollution, reduce fuel consumption in incident situation various advanced grammatical solutions have been implemented in order to reduce these problems. Telematics, using techniques such as informatics, optoelectronics, automatics and telecommunications, helps to reduce costs of transportation potential management, improves the security and reliability of the transportation service.

The trend of an increasing number of student travellers from the University of the North, the University Centers of Koprivnica and Varaždin also affects the quality of their mobility. The mobility of student-passengers in rail passenger transport is directly related to the quality of service and the inevitable maximum safety aspect, but also to the appropriate railway infrastructure. According to the above, it is necessary to analyse the current state of transport infrastructure and propose activities to increase the mobility of student-passengers. This paper analyses the current status of student-passenger mobility in railway passenger transport, and also analyses the regional features of road and railway transport infrastructure, state road DC-2 and railway R202 Varaždin-Dalj, located between the cities of Varaždin and Koprivnica, with regard to route characteristics and infrastructure facilities. As part of the work, a survey was conducted through questionnaires, and questionnaires were completed by students-travellers of the University of the North.

User satisfaction sets a basic example for public service quality, especially those considered as basic necessities. The quality in transport service related to conceptualization and measurement, as a decisive demand key, presents challenges for both economic and mobility policies.Several operator companies are involved in the transport sector. Therefore this report aims to design a model of overall satisfaction based on the level of satisfaction with a specific set of factors, considering individual characteristics of users and the differential effect of different bus lines.The current presentation has applied a combined method, using Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) and a Logit Multilevel Model (LMLM) in two-steps.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3515

In Muscat, the capital of Oman with over one million inhabitants, urban public transport practically does not exist and the use of private cars is dramatically increasing. As a result, accident rates and traffic congestion, two particularly pressing concerns in the urban area of the capital, have both risen. This situation has focused the concern of public administrations and has led to the urgent need of developing a Public Transport System in the city In order to develop this system in an integrated manner, the plan proposes to unify and organize regulation and management of public transport by creating a public transport authority, headed by the Ministry of Transport and with a very strong involvement of Muscat Municipality. By 2015 only two urban bus lines operate in Muscat, covering a small area of the city–Wadi Adei, Wadi Kabir and Ruwi. Therefore, the plan adopts a conservative approach by proposing the implementation of a comprehensive urban bus network –composed by trunk and feeder lines adapted to the low density of the city- before establishing other high capacity solutions, such as BRT or LRT. A key element of the system is the number of 13,400 taxis and microbuses that represent the only alternative to the 317,000 cars of Muscat. The plan suggests the reorganization and further regulation of the sector to achieve the professionalization of the taxi services and the migration of existing users, part of them to the professionalised taxi services and the other part to the implemented public transport services.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3457

The urban population of Africa, the fastest urbanizing continent, has increased from 19% to 39% in the past 50 years, and the number of urban dwellers is projected to reach 770 million by 2030. However, while rapid urbanization has increased mobility and created a subsequent growth in demand for public transport in cities, this has not been met by the provision of adequate and sustainable infrastructure and services. The majority of low-income residents and the urban poor still lack access to adequate transport services and rely on non-motorized and public transport, which is often informal and characterized by poor service delivery. Lack of access to transport services limits access to opportunities that aren’t in the proximity of residential areas, such as education, healthcare, and employment. The urban public transport sector not only faces the challenge of poor service provision, but also of gender inequality. Research shows that, in the existing urban transport systems, there are significant differences in the travel patterns of and modes of transport used by women and men, and that these differences are associated with their roles and responsibilities in society. Moreover, the differences in travel patterns are characterized by unequal access to transport facilities and services. Women are generally underrepresented in the sector, in both its operation and decision-making. Women’s mobility needs and patterns are rarely integrated into transport infrastructure design and services and female users are often victims of harassment and assault. As cities rapidly expand, meeting the transport needs of their growing populations while paying attention to gender-differentiated mobility patterns is a prerequisite to achieving sustainability, livability and inclusivity. Gender mainstreaming in urban public transport is therefore a critical issue, but one which is under-researched in East Africa. This research explores gender issues in public transport in East Africa, focusing in particular on women’s inclusion in both public transport systems and transport policy decision-making processes and using case studies from three cities: Nairobi, Kampala and Dar es Salaam.

Public transit ridership in California declined in the five years before the pandemic of 2020–21 and dropped significantly further after the pandemic began. A sharp downward step in the level of transit boarding occurred after February 2020, and continues to the date of this report as a result of the public-health guidance on social distancing, expanded work-at-home, and a travel mode shift from public transit to private cars. A critical issue has come to the foreground of public transportation policy, namely, how to increase the quality and geographic reach of transit service to better serve the essential trips of mobility disadvantaged citizens who do not have access to private vehicle travel. The research focus of this report is an examination of the circumstances where fixed route bus route service could cost-effectively be replaced by on-demand microtransit, with equivalent overall zone-level efficiency and a higher quality of complete trip service. Research methods were reviews of documented agency experience, execution of simple simulations, and sketch-level analysis of 2019 performance reported in the National Transit Database. Available evidence is encouraging and suggestive, but not conclusive. The research found that substitutions of flexible microtransit for fixed route buses are already being piloted across the U.S., with promising performance results. The findings imply that action steps could be taken in California to expand and refine an emphasis on general purpose microtransit in corridors and zones with a relatively high fraction of potential travelers who are mobility disadvantaged, and where traditional bus routes are capturing fewer than 15 boardings per vehicle hour. To be sufficiently productive as fixed route replacements, microtransit service technologies in the same or larger zones need to be capable of achieving vehicle boardings of five per hour, a challenge worth addressing with technology applications. Delivery of microtransit service can be undertaken through contracts with a growing set of private sector firms, which are developing processes to merge general purpose customers with those now assigned to ADA-required paratransit and Medi-Cal-supported non-emergency medical transport.

Do differences in port performance explain differences in maritime transport costs? How much would improvements in port performance reduce maritime transport costs in developing countries? To answer this question, we use a widely used transport cost model, but we provide a new measure of port efficiency, estimated through a non-parametric approach. Relying on data from the early 2000s, this paper shows that for a sample of 115 container ports in 39 developing countries, becoming as efficient as the country with the most efficient port sector would reduce average maritime transport costs by 5 percent. For the most inefficient country, the reduction in transport costs could reach 15 percent. These findings point out the potential gains that can be achieved from the combination of betterquality investment and more efficient service provision in the port sector. The estimates in this paper cannot be updated because the databases were discontinued and it therefore highlights the need to generate data to evaluate the effectiveness of public policies that are key to competitiveness.

Public, fixed-route transit services most commonly operate on public streets. In addition, transit passengers must use sidewalks to access transit stops and stations. However, streets and sidewalks are under the jurisdiction of municipalities, not transit agencies. Various municipal policies, practices, and decisions affect transit operations, rider convenience, and passenger safety. Thus, these government entities have an important influence over the quality, safety, and convenience of transit services in their jurisdictions. This research identified municipal policies and practices that affect public transport providers’ ability to deliver transit services. They were found from a comprehensive literature review, interviews and discussions with five local transit agencies in the U.S., five public transportation experts and staff from five California cities. The city policies and practices identified fall into the following five categories: Infrastructure for buses, including bus lanes, signal treatments, curbside access; Infrastructure for pedestrians walking and bicycling to, and waiting at, transit stops and stations; Internal transportation planning policies and practices; Land development review policies; Regional and metropolitan planning organization (MPO) issues. The understanding, acknowledgment, and implementation of policies and practices identified in this report can help municipalities proactively work with local transit providers to more efficiently and effectively operate transit service and improve passenger comfort and safety on city streets.

Despite growing interest in low-speed automated shuttles, pilot deployments have only just begun in a few places in the U.S., and there is a lack of studies that estimate the impacts of a widespread deployment of automated shuttles designed to supplement existing transit networks. This project estimated the potential impacts of automated shuttles based on a deployment scenario generated for a sample geographic area: Santa Clara County, California. The project identified sample deployment markets within Santa Clara County using a GIS screening exercise; tested the mode share changes of an automated shuttle deployment scenario using BEAM, an open-source beta software developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to run traffic simulations with MATSim; elaborated the model outputs within the R environment; and then estimated the related impacts. The main findings have been that the BEAM software, despite still being in its beta version, was able to model a scenario with the automated shuttle service: this report illustrates the potential of the software and the lessons learned. Regarding transportation aspects, the model estimated automated shuttle use throughout the county, with a higher rate of use in the downtown San José area. The shuttles would be preferred mainly by people who had been using gasoline-powered ride hail vehicles for A-to-B trips or going to the bus stop, as well as walking trips and a few car trips directed to public transport stops. As a result, the shuttles contributed to a small decrease in emissions of air pollutants, provided a competitive solution for short trips, and increased the overall use of the public transport system. The shuttles also presented a solution for short night trips—mainly between midnight and 2 am—when there are not many options for moving between points A and B. The conclusion is that the automated shuttle service is a good solution in certain contexts and can increase public transit ridership overall.

Transport Network Companies (TNCs) have become a popular alternative for mobility due to their ability to provide on-demand flexible mobility services. By offering smartphone-based, ride-hailing services capable of satisfying specific travel needs, these modes have transformed urban mobility worldwide. However, to-date, few studies have examined the impacts in the Latin American context. This analysis is a critical first step in developing policies to promote efficient and sustainable transport systems in the Latin-American region. This research examines the factors affecting the adoption of on-demand ride services in Medellín, Colombia. It also explores whether these are substituting or competing with public transit. First, it provides a descriptive analysis in which we relate the usage of platform-based services with neighborhood characteristics, socioeconomic information of individuals and families, and trip-level details. Next, factors contributing to the election of platform-based services modeled using discrete choice models. The results show that wealthy and highly educated families with low vehicle availability are more likely to use TNCs compared to other groups in Medellín. Evidence also points at gender effects, with being female significantly increasing the probability of using a TNC service. Finally, we observe both transit complementary and substitution patterns of use, depending on the context and by whom the service is requested.

Washington, DC is ranked second among cities in terms of highest public transit commuters in the United States, with approximately 9% of the working population using the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Metrobuses to commute. Deducing accurate travel times of these metrobuses is an important task for transit authorities to provide reliable service to its patrons. This study, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), developed prediction models for transit buses to assist decision-makers to improve service quality and patronage. For this study, we used six months of Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) data for six Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) bus routes operating in Washington, DC. We developed regression models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for predicting travel times of buses for different peak periods (AM, Mid-Day and PM). Our analysis included variables such as number of served bus stops, length of route between bus stops, average number of passengers in the bus, average dwell time of buses, and number of intersections between bus stops. We obtained ANN models for travel times by using approximation technique incorporating two separate algorithms: Quasi-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt. The training strategy for neural network models involved feed forward and errorback processes that minimized the generated errors. We also evaluated the models with a Comparison of the Normalized Squared Errors (NSE). From the results, we observed that the travel times of buses and the dwell times at bus stops generally increased over time of the day. We gathered travel time equations for buses for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peaks. The lowest NSE for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peak periods corresponded to training processes using Quasi-Newton algorithm, which had 3, 2 and 5 perceptron layers, respectively. These prediction models could be adapted by transit agencies to provide the patrons with accurate travel time information at bus stops or online.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.