Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Pure Premium'

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais
No contexto atual de estagnação económica, de uma nova regulamentação prudencial e de um aumento geral da concorrência, as companhias de seguros visam reposicionar-se no mercado com o objetivo de aumentar a rentabilidade dos seus produtos, proporcionando ao mesmo tempo preços mais justos aos seus segurados. No entanto, o que acaba por acontecer a maioria das vezes é uma discrepância entre os sinistros reais e as previsões do modelo, originada pelo facto de os antigos coeficientes tarifários já não corresponderem à carteira em questão. Este trabalho propõe métodos para fornecer apoio à decisão na seleção de variáveis e à escolha do modelo do prémio puro para uma companhia de seguros. Para este efeito será usada a teoria dos Modelos Lineares Generalizados (MLG) com recurso à ferramenta R e iremos aplica-la a uma companhia de seguros Não-Vida. Os resultados finais foram analisados considerando esta metodologia, mas também tendo em conta uma perspetiva de rentabilidade da companhia.
Under the current context of economic stagnation, of a new supervisory regime, and of a general increase in market competition, insurance companies aim to reposition themselves in the market with the goal of increasing their profitability, while providing fairer prices to their policyholders. However, what tends to happen most of the times is that there is a difference between the real claims and the predictions of the model used, originated by the fact that the old ratemaking variables are not adapted to the current portfolio. The goal of this work is to propose methods to support business decision making of ratemaking variables and to the choice of a pure premium model of an insurance company. To this end, it will be used the theory behind Generalized Linear Models (GLM) by treating the data using the software tool R and applying it to a Non-Life insurance company. The final results will be commented using this methodology, but also by taking into account the profitability of the company.

Mestrado em Actuarial Science
Sob a competição crescente do mercado segurador, as companhias de seguros procuram formas de aumentar o seu lucro, apresentando ainda assim prémios competitivos e sem incorrer em riscos substanciais. Com este objetivo, novas técnicas de tarifação têm sido empregues e tarifas atualizadas têm sido desenvolvidas. Este trabalho resulta de um estágio curricular no departamento de Pricing and Business Analytics da Ocidental Seguros. O objetivo deste estágio foi criar uma tarifa de responsabilidade civil automóvel para "outros veículos" (motociclos, camiões, autocarros, tratores, atrelados e outros). Usámos dados provenientes de duas companhias de seguros, a Ocidental e a Ageas, com o objetivo de criar uma tarifa técnica única para ambas. Considerámos diversos fatores de risco que pudessem explicar o comportamento dos condutores com o objetivo de modelizar a frequência e o custo médio dos sinistros usando Modelos Lineares Generalizados e combinámo-los num modelo de prémio puro.
Under the increasing competition in the insurance market, insurance companies look for ways to increase their profit while still presenting competitive premiums and not incurring in substantial risks. In order to achieve this, new ratemaking techniques are being employed, and updated tariffs are being developed. This work results from a curricular internship in the Pricing and Business Analytics department of Ocidental Seguros. The goal of this internship was to create a third-party motor tariff for "other vehicles" (motorcycles, trucks, buses, tractors, trailers and others). We have used data from two insurance companies, Ocidental and Ageas, in order to create a unique technical tariff for them. We have considered several risk factors that could explain the drivers' behaviour in order to model the claims' frequency and severity using Generalized Linear Models and combined them into a pure premium model.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

La recherche menée dans cette thèse propose une contribution à l’analyse du risque sur le marché de l’assurance automobile en France. Trois nouveaux axes sont présentés : le premier axe s’inscrit dans un cadre théorique de marché d’assurance automobile. Un modèle original de double asymétrie d’information est présenté. Le principal résultat qui en découle est l’existence de deux sortes de contrats d’équilibre : un contrat séparateur et un contrat mélangeant. Le deuxième point est lié à la prise en compte de la sinistralité passée dans l’étude de la relation risque - couverture. Des modèles bivariés et trivariés sont appliqués pour cette fin. Il en ressort que l’hypothèse de l’asymétrie d’information est vérifiée. Enfin, la troisième question soulevée dans cette thèse concerne l’application de la surprime aux jeunes conducteurs. Nous montrons par des modélisations économétriques de la sinistralité que la légitimité des assureurs à proposer quasi systématiquement des tarifs plus élevés aux jeunes conducteurs par rapport aux conducteurs expérimentés n'est pas toujours vérifiée
This dissertation provides a contribution to the risk analysis on the French automobile insurance market. The objective of this thesis is threefold. The first aim relates to a theoretical framework applied on insurance market. An original model of double asymmetry of information is presented The main result that emerges is the existence of two kinds of contracts at equilibrium :a separating contract and a pooling contract. The second point concerns the past claims and the risk-coverage correlation. Bivariate and trivariate models are applied for this purpose. It results that the assumption of asymmetry of information is not rejected. The third issue is related to the over-premium that insurers apply quasi-systematically to the young drivers. We show, using econometric modeling, that this over-pricing compared to the experienced drivers’premium isnot necessary and its removal does not compromise the sustainability of the insurance company

Cette étude tente une relecture de l’histoire messine, d’Henri IV à Louis XIV, à partir d’un angle de vue politico-militaire. Elle interroge le concept de réduction à l’obéissance. La première partie s’organise autour du choc de la violence issue de la guerre (1635). Elle étudie les moyens mis en place pour se garantir des ennemis : l’échange de contributions – paiements –contre des sauvegardes – protections. Se met ainsi en place un premier « droit des gens ». La seconde partie aborde les relations avec les soldats du roi. Elle analyse le poids d’une garnison et celui des passages et séjours de troupes. L’étude aborde les marges de manœuvre de la ville, négociées à Metz, en Lorraine et à Paris, des soldats jusqu’aux ministres du roi. Enfin, une dernière partie s’intéresse à la ville elle-même. D’abord le gouverneur dont les vastes pouvoirs sont évoqués ; un personnage que la monarchie parvient à contrôler. Ensuite le pouvoir urbain et les artifices employés pour mobiliser la cité
My study is an attempt at reading anew the history of Metz, from the reign of Henri IV to that of Louis XIV, in a political and military perspective. In it I question the notion of forceful obedience. The first part revolves around the shock of violence generated by the war in the year 1635. I examine the means used to protect oneself from the enemy, such as the exchange of - financial - contributions for safeguards - protecting warrants. A first "right of the people" is thus promoted. The second part tackles the relationships with the soldiers of the King. I analyse the burden of having to sustain a garrison, and having to bear the occasional stays of passing troops. I also study the city's room for manoeuvres that were negotiated in Metz, in Lorraine and in Paris by people ranging from troops to ministers of the King. Finally, the last part delves into the city itself. First comes the governor whose great powers are evoked as those of a person the monarchs manage to keep under control. Then come the city powers that be and the wiles used to mobilise the city

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Georgia State University, 2006.
Stephen D. Smith, committee chair; Jason Greene, James Owens, Alok Srivastava, committee members. Electronic text (132 p. : ill. (some co.)) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed July 12, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-97).

Le but de cette thèse est d'identifier et de comprendre le processus d'accumulation et désaccumulation patrimoniale des petits propriétaires-exploitants durant la première moitié du 19th siècle (1789-1860) dans département de Seine-et-Oise. La période 1789-1817 correspond à une « phase A » d'un cycle économique la période, 1817-1852 correspond à la « phase B » du même cycle. Il semble que la conjoncture des prix soit particulièrement favorable au petit propriétaire et plus particulièrement aux petits exploitants agricoles pour deux raisons. En premier lieu, la Révolution a un impact sur le système de redistribution et de commercialisation du produit net agricole. En second lieu, les petits cultivateurs sont parfois plus performants, que les grands exploitants (en particulier au nord de Paris). Les résultats que nous obtenons permettent de s'interroger sur le caractère « capitaliste » de la première révolution agricole qui vouerait à terme les petites exploitations agricoles à la disparition
The aim of this thesis is to identify and investigate the process of accumulation and desaccumulation of th, little land owners'wealth during the first half of the XIX' century (1789-1860) in the department of Seine-et Oise which surrounded Paris. The 1789-1817 period corresponded to a « phase A » of an economic cycle, 1817-1852 period corresponded at a « phase B » of the same cycle. It seems that the conjuncture was ver favourable to the little land owners and more generally to the little farming estates for two reasons. First, th French Revolution had an impact over the system of redistribution and commercialisation of "net agricultur product". Then, it seems on the whole that the little farming estates were sometimes more productive than great farming estates (especially in the north of Paris). Consequently we can possible to wonder if the first agricultural revolution was based upon a capitalistic revolution which condemned the little farming estates in the end ?

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais
Cordeiro [2002a] propôs um modelo de múltiplos estados para a análise de indemnizações Income Protection (IP) segundo a causa de incapacidade. Este modelo, que é uma generalização do modelo de múltiplos estados proposto pelo Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau no seu relatório n°12, em 1991 (CMIR 12[1991]), é um modelo que se torna útil nas etapas de subscrição de seguros e de gestão de indemnizações IP.Nos capítulos 1 e 2 desta tese estudamos detalhadamente o modelo proposto em CMIR 12[1991] e o modelo mais geral proposto em Cordeiro [2002a], respectivamente. Para cada um destes modelos apresentamos: a sua base matemática, as fórmulas das probabilidades básicas que se podem definir a partir do modelo, os algoritmos numéricos que permitem obter de uma forma eficiente valores de algumas das probabilidades básicas e as regularizações das intensidades de transição do modelo. No capítulo 3 utilizamos o modelo mais geral para calcular os prémios puros, quer de apólices IP que oferecem coberturas totais, quer de apólices que oferecem coberturas parciais, ou seja, que incluem nas suas coberturas apenas algumas classes de causas de incapacidade. Para o efeito, utilizamos os algoritmos numéricos para o cálculo das probabilidades básicas e as regularizações das intensidades de transição apresentados no capítulo 2. No capítulo 3 fazemos ainda a análise dos resultados obtidos.
Cordeiro [2002a] presented a new multiple state model which enables us to analyse Income Protection (IP) claims by cause of disability. This model, which is a generalization of the multiple state model presented by the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau in its 12th report, in 1991 (CMIR 12(1991]), is a very useful tool in the underwriting and claim control stages of IP business. In chapters 1 and 2 of this thesis we study in detail the model proposed in CMIR 12(1991] and the more general model proposed in Cordeiro [2002a], respectively. For each of these models we present: the mathematical basis of the model, formulae for the basic probabilities which can be defined with the model, the numerical algorithms which enable us to evaluate efficiently some of the basic probabilities and the graduations of the transition intensities of the model. In chapter 3 we use the more general model to calculate net premiums both for IP policies which offer total protection and for policies which offer partial protection (i.e. which cover only some classes of causes of disability. For that purpose, we use the numerical algorithms which allow us to calculate the basic probabilities efficiently and the graduations of the transition intensities presented in chapter 2. In chapter 3 we also analyse the results obtained.

Le premier cycle d'extraction du procede de retraitement du combustible nucleaire irradie a pour fonction d'extraire, a partir du combustible dissous, l'uranium et le plutonium en phase organique ; et de laisser les produits de fission dans la phase aqueuse. Cette operation industrielle peut etre considerablement genee par la presence a l'interface d'une emulsion stable et envahissante, qui emprisonne des produits solides radioactifs. Ce phenomene est generalement nomme crasses d'interphase. Le travail que nous avons effectue vise a mieux comprendre l'origine et les mecanismes de formation de ce phenomene. Il a ete conduit a l'echelle du laboratoire, en simulant, en inactif, ses conditions d'apparition. Ainsi, nous avons pu verifier qu'un solide peut perturber un systeme biphasique jusqu'a stabiliser une emulsion. Ceci, en fonction de son affinite pour chacune des phases liquides, qui est tributaire de ses proprietes de surface. Differents produits solides peuvent etre presents au premier cycle. Ce sont, d'une part les produits de fission insolubles (provenant de la dissolution et non elimines par la clarification) ; et d'autre part, les precipites d'interphase (produits de fission solubles pouvant se combiner avec des produits de degradation du solvant pour donner des complexes insolubles). Nous avons confirme que l'apparition a l'interface de ces deux classes de produits etait consecutive a la degradation radiochimique du systeme biphasique. Leur comportement dans le systeme experimental a ete etudie. Apparemment, aucune des deux classes de produits n'est responsable a part entiere de la formation des crasses. C'est leur presence simultanee qui provoque l'apparition d'une emulsion stable. Ainsi, le phenomene de crasses d'interphase a pu etre reproduit, son origine et les mecanismes de formation precises. Enfin, l'analyse des resultats nous a permis de montrer qu'un tel probleme ne pouvait survenir dans le cadre d'un fonctionnement nominal du premier cycle d'extraction, et qu'il etait vraisemblablement le resultat de dysfonctionnement du procede.

碩士
銘傳大學
風險管理與保險學系碩士班
105
Abstract: Climate change has increased the likelihood and severity of natural disasters in recent years. Wildfire is a critical issue in natural disaster, such as the wildfire in Indonesia; California, U.S.; Yunnan, China; Nantou, Taiwan …etc. This study explored the feasibility to diverse risk for wildfire with pure risk premium in U.S. The pure risk premium utilized VaR and CVaR value to estimate probable yearly aggregate loss (MPY), and applied Monde Carlo method and historical manner to simulate VaR and CVaR values, and utilized loss data and total output value for wildfire in U.S. The study used @risk simulation software to simulate VaR and CVaR values. The @Risk have more functions and test methods, which could be utilized to fit and test distribution structure of wildfire loss data. In order to make the simulation value close to the actual value, we use the Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the risk value (95% and 99% confidence level) and simulate the rate, insurance amount and premium. Finally, compare with the Chinese examples to determine whether the analog values are sufficient. In this study, BetaGeneral function fitted U.S. forest fire rates and Monte Carlo 99% CVaR was close to actual rate of 0.892 ‰, and InvGauss function fitted U.S. forest fire premium and 99% CVaR was close to actual rate 2.27 ‰. Taiwan's forest fire loss is too small to be a single risk and this study suggests to formulate a comprehensive insurance policy for the market.

碩士
真理大學
數理科學研究所
98
In recent years, the market interest rate showed significant decreasing trend and the average life expectancy is increased progressively in every year in Taiwan. To face the coming era of the low interest rate and the longevity, insurance companies, in considering the low market interest rate, need sell low Assumed Interest rate and interest sensitive related products to keep the solvency. The insurance companies still have to face the shortage problem on the annuities and permanent medical health insurance payments caused by underestimating the extension of the average life expectancy. In this research paper, we use two actual Taiwan market interest rate data and use Vasicek Model and CIR Model as proper stochastic interest rate models and use Least Squares Method, EM Algorithm, Nonlinear Least Squares Method and Multiple Regression respectively to do the model parameter estimation. We also use the Taiwan single age mortality data from HMD (Human Mortality Database), in considering the Cohort Effect, and use Lee-Carter Mortality Model as proper Mortality Model and use SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) method to do the parameter estimation. The purpose of this research paper is to simulate the variances between the calculated insurance expenses and the changes of the reserves by proper choice on random interest rate and random mortality model to apply into the Whole life insurance, Term insurance, Endowment insurance and Immediate Annuity respectively, in using the male ages of 30, 50 and 65 and the payment periods of 10 years, 20 years and 30 years and the booking interest rates of 2%, 4%, 6% and 8% under 4 combined situation respectively: 1) Fixed interest rate, Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality Table or Annuity table mortality, 2) Stochasitc Interest Rate, Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality Table or Annuity table mortality, 3) Fixed interest rate, Dynamic mortality, 4) Stochasitc Interest Rate, Dynamic mortality. From this research, we found there is an urgent need to amend the Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality table and Annuity table. Moreover, under this assumption, the result, to insurance companies, showed, no matter what type of insurance, the insurance expenses were lower than current insurance expenses if we use random interest rate and dynamic mortality. But in terms of Immediate Annuity, the insurance expenses were higher than current insurance expenses instead. This also means the improvement on high age population mortality may put the insurance companies in the risk of the shortage on annuity product reserve allowances.

碩士
國立高雄第一科技大學
風險管理與保險所
91
ABSTRACT The liberalization for the rating of industrial insurance has started already. Following the paces of liberalization, the limitation for the risk premium of automobile insurance, also called pure premium, will also be released step by step. A diversification of automobile insurance products and an appearance of various insurance prices must become a trend. Under the environment with keen competitions. It makes the focus turn to the portion of pure premium. This paper takes a compensation case of automobile third party liability insurance as an example to investigate the relevant risk factors affecting the pure premium of property damage, and make a comparison between the research results and the current practices. This empirical finding the risk factors affecting the pure premium of property damage of automobile third party liability insurance not only cover the person-oriented and the vehicles-oriented factors are being currently considered, but also have obvious correlation with the underwriting factors, as insurance renewal, insured amount and claims amount ,and with the environmental factors, such as the timing of accident. Furthermore, this paper makes comparison on the risk factors of pure premium of property damage between large and small vechicles. It is found that the factors of the driver’s experience, the nature of use, insurance amount, etc. that also have obvious correlation with these two aspects. Besides, the large vechicles also has other obvious factors, such as risk factor of accident, car age, claims amount, renewal. It is hoped that these findings can provide a reference for the insurer when fixing or revising the prices of automobile insurance products, and make the insured enjoy fairer and more optimized premium, achieving an ideal of win-win situation.