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Hohoff, Eva, Ines Perrar, Nicole Jancovic, and Ute Alexy. "Age and time trends of dairy intake among children and adolescents of the DONALD study." European Journal of Nutrition 60, no. 7 (April 21, 2021): 3861–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00394-021-02555-7.
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Abstract Purpose To describe age and time trends in dietary intake of Total Dairy (TD) (g/1000 kcal Total Energy Intake) and types of dairy (weight percent of total dairy intake, w%TD) represented as Low Fat Dairy (LFD), High Sugar Dairy (HSD), Fermented Dairy (FD) and Liquid Dairy (LD) among children and adolescents in Germany. Methods Overall, 10,333 3-day dietary records kept between 1985 and 2019 by 1275 DONALD participants (3.5–18.5 years; boys: 50.8%) were analyzed using polynomial mixed-effects regression models. Results TD intake decreased with age (♂: linear trend p < 0.0001; ♀: linear and quadratic trend p < 0.0001), whereas FD (♀: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.02) increased slightly in girls. HSD (♂: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.004; ♀: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.005) and LD (linear, quadratic trend p ≤ 0.0002) decreased with age. In terms of time trends, TD intake decreased in the last three decades, especially since 1995 (quadratic trend for ♂ 0.0007 and ♀ p = 0.004). LFD intake increased until 2010 and decreased thereafter (linear, quadratic, cubic trend p < 0.0001). HSD decreased until 1995, then increased until 2010 and decreased again afterwards (♂: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.001; ♀: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.003). While FD intake increased linear (in both ♂ and ♀: p < 0.0001), LD intake decreased (linear, quadratic trend p ≤ 0.03). Conclusion Our results showed changes in dairy consumption patterns among children and adolescents over the past three decades, demonstrating a decrease in TD intake with age and time, and a shift from liquid to solid dairy products with a simultaneous increase in fermented dairy products, while LFD and HSD fluctuated over time. Further evaluations will examine the health significance of these consumption patterns.
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Harvey, Andrew. "The local quadratic trend model." Journal of Forecasting 29, no. 1-2 (January 2010): 94–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1144.
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Annan, Francis. "A Regional Analysis of Corn Yield Models: Comparing Quadratic versus Cubic Trends." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 3, no. 6 (December 15, 2011): 395–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v3i6.296.
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This study investigates county-level corn yield trend models using quadratic and cubic trend estimations. The study empirically revealed that the cubic trend is more appropriate for yield data from the West, Midwest and South regions. The linear and the quadratic trend models were respectively found to be more appropriate for yield data from the Plains and Atlantic regions. Results suggest that the data should be allowed to determine the appropriate trend relationships to avoid trend misspecification. Additionally, the yield trends are found to be inconsistent across all the regions. Different locations tend to exhibit different yield trends. It is therefore recommended that differences between regions be recognized when we conduct yield trend tests and not to generalize our results to other regions.
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Wiens, Stefan, and Stephen N. Palmer. "Quadratic trend analysis and heartbeat detection." Biological Psychology 58, no. 2 (November 2001): 159–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0301-0511(01)00110-7.
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El-Geziry, Tarek M., Ibrahim A. Maiyza, and Mohamed S. Kamel. "Behaviour of Temperature Variations in Subsurface Layers in the South-Eastern Mediterranean Sea." ATHENS JOURNAL OF SCIENCES 8, no. 1 (January 20, 2020): 9–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.30958/ajs.8-1-1.
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The present work is a qualitative research, which aims at drawing the general behaviour of variations in the subsurface seawater temperatures within three distinctive subsurface layers in the south-eastern Mediterranean region. The work is based on hydrographic data collected over 65 years (1948–2012). The investigated layers are the subsurface, the intermediate and the deep water layers. The general trend of the mean annual temperature anomaly (MATA) was examined using the linear and quadratic regressions. Results revealed that the MATA over the water column in the south-eastern Mediterranean has the same trend, regardless of the place (layer) of investigation. Linearly, all MATA have increasing trends with different rates, with the exception of the 75 m level, which has a decreasing trend following that previously concluded for the surface water in the region. Also, the quadratic approach reflects the same trend of MATA over the water column, with different years of minimum occurrence. These same trends from the surface to deep can be attributed to the vertical convection processes in this region, and to the expanded impact of solar radiation which may reach more than 30 m depth. Keywords: South-eastern Mediterranean Sea, seawater temperature, linear regression, quadratic regression, cyclic trend
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Rukmini, Rukmini. "Forecasting Sales Cotton and Polyester Yarn at PT. Agung Sejahtera Sukaraharja Karanganyar." JMK (Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan) 4, no. 1 (January 18, 2019): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.32503/jmk.v4i1.357.
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This study aims to determine the sales forecasting and polyester cotton yarn in January 2015 by using the Least Square Method and Method of Quadratic Trend. As well as to determine the most efficient methods of forecasting to predict sales of cotton yarn and polyester products at PT Agung Sejahtera. From the results of analysis based on the calculation of sales forecasts yarn products with sales data from January to December 2014 using the least squares method and quadratic trend method, in which the quadratic trend method is more suitable because it has a value of SKP lows while the predictive value of product sales yarn using trend quadratic result of cotton yarn 40 weaving of 1,538 ball, cotton yarn 40 amounted to 597.504 ball spandex, polyster yarn weaving amounted 411.348 40 ball, 30 Weaving Polyester yarn ball at 336.588.
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Perrar, Ines, Alena M. Schadow, Sarah Schmitting, Anette E. Buyken, and Ute Alexy. "Time and Age Trends in Free Sugar Intake from Food Groups among Children and Adolescents between 1985 and 2016." Nutrients 12, no. 1 (December 20, 2019): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/nu12010020.
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Trend analyses suggest that free sugar (FS) intake—while still exceeding 10%E—has decreased among German children and adolescents since 2005, yet that intakes may shift from sugars naturally occurring in foods to added sugars as children age. Thus, we analysed time and age trends in FS intake (%E) from food groups among 3–18 year-olds (1985–2016) using 10,761 3-day dietary records from 1312 DONALD participants (660 boys, 652 girls) by use of polynomial mixed-effects regression models. Among girls, FS from sugar & sweets decreased from 1985 to 2016 (linear trend p < 0.0001), but not among boys (p > 0.05). In the total sample, FS intake from juices increased until 2000 and decreased since 2005 (linear, quadratic trend p < 0.0001). FS from sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) decreased non-linearly from 1985 to 2016 (girls: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p < 0.0001; boys: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p < 0.02). Younger children consumed more FS from juices than older ones, who had a higher FS intake from SSB. FS intake from sugar & sweets increased until early adolescence and decreased afterwards. Since sugar & sweets represent the main source of FS intake and the source with the least pronounced decline in intake, public health measures should focus on these products.
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Kojić, Vedran, and Tihana Škrinjarić. "A note on the turning point for the quadratic trend." Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics 5, no. 2 (December 1, 2019): 39–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/crebss-2019-0010.
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AbstractThe quadratic trend is a statistical model described by the quadratic function. Finding its extremum (also called the vertex or the turning point) using differential calculus or completing the square method is very well known in the literature. In this paper, a new method for finding the extremum of the quadratic function, based on a simple mathematical inequality is proposed. In comparison with the other two known methods, our method does not require the differentiability assumption and it takes fewer steps than completing the square method. Also, it is shown how the turning point for the quadratic trend can be applied in forecasting the unemployment rate in Croatia in the first quarter of 2019. The obtained conclusions are equal to the conclusions obtained in the usual way by using forecasting software.
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Fu, You, Ryan D. Burns, Emma Gomes, Amy Savignac, and Nora Constantino. "Trends in Sedentary Behavior, Physical Activity, and Motivation during a Classroom-Based Active Video Game Program." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 16 (August 7, 2019): 2821. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162821.
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The purpose of this preliminary study was to investigate trends in children’s sedentary behavior (SB), physical activity (PA), and motivation during a 12 week classroom-based Active Video Game (AVG) program. A sample of 16 children, recruited from an elementary school, participated in AVG for 30 minutes per school day for 12 consecutive weeks. School day time in SB and PA, in addition to step counts, were assessed across 12 weeks using accelerometers and motivation was assessed via questionnaires. Mixed effects models with a quadratic time parameter were employed to examine time trends. A significant negative trend was observed for SB, while light and vigorous PA and step counts yielded positive trends until approximately 8–9 weeks where a quadratic inflection point was observed (p < 0.001). Regarding motivational variables, enjoyment and social support from teachers significantly increased across 12 weeks (p < 0.05). A 12 week classroom AVG program yielded a positive trend in school day light and vigorous PA and step counts, and a negative trend in SB until 8–9 weeks into the program. This study supports the use of low-cost classroom-based AVG programs to improve children’s physical and mental health, but favorable PA trends were attenuated past 8–9 weeks.
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Van Deusen, Paul C. "Comparison of some annual forest inventory estimators." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32, no. 11 (November 1, 2002): 1992–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x02-115.
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Three estimators of current status and trend are compared for an annual interpenetrating panel design. The five-panel annual inventory design is simulated over a 10-year period with flat, increasing, and quadratic growth trends. The simulated comparisons show that the mixed estimator performs well relative to the 5-year moving average in terms of bias and mean squared error in all cases. The one-panel mean can have less bias than the moving average when there is a trend, but it is more variable. The moving average tends to lag evolving trends, which can result in very large bias.
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Gumułka, Małgorzata, Nataly Avital-Cohen, and Israel Rozenboim. "Determination of Annual Plasma Hormone Levels Associated with Reproduction in Long-Day Breeding Domestic Geese." Animals 11, no. 8 (August 10, 2021): 2363. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani11082363.
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This paper examines the dynamics of circulating hormone changes connected with reproduction in geese during the annual period related to gonad morphometry. One hundred geese were examined. The levels of prolactin (PRL), triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), testosterone (T), progesterone (P4) and estradiol (E2) were estimated. In both sexes, PRL level patterns fit a quadratic trend with elevations in the post-breeding and the second half of the breeding–laying periods. During these periods, differences in the PRL level between sexes were noted. In ganders, increased PRL levels during the laying period occurred earlier compared to in female geese. Cubic trends for T and E2 in ganders and quadratic for T, P4, and E2 in female geese were observed. PRL was negatively correlated with T in both sexes and with P4 and E2 in female geese. A higher level of T3 and variation in T4 in ganders with a quartic trend in ganders vs. a quadratic in female geese were noted. Patterns of PRL, T, and E2 suggested that the breeding–laying period in ganders may be shorter than in female geese. These findings will be used to explore experimental manipulations of the endocrine axis to increase synchronisation of both sexes.
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DREZNER, Z., and G. O. WESOLOWSKY. "Optimal Control of a Linear Trend Process with Quadratic Loss." IIE Transactions 21, no. 1 (March 1989): 66–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07408178908966207.
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Ray, Achintya, and Malcom Getz. "Excess Capacity and the Economics of Public Transit Investment: A Study of a Growing American City." Accounting and Finance Research 7, no. 3 (June 13, 2018): 119. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/afr.v7n3p119.
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Declining ridership in public transport weakens the case for investments in expanded service or large investments in public transit infrastructures. Our study documents the decline in public transit ridership in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. Using data from Federal sources for 2002-2018 we document the influence of higher numbers of hours of bus service, employment, and, gasoline prices on public transit ridership. We find a surprising negative relationship between ridership and miles of bus service provided. Given the several control variables in the model, quadratic trend estimates inform us that peak ridership occurred in 2007 and the seasonally adjusted ridership might be falling since then. A second regression for the period after the great recession of 2008-09 gives a similar result regarding the declining ridership. Falling ridership in Nashville matches downward trends in other cities around the country. A major contribution of our study lies in the identification of separate roles for hours and miles of bus service. Using that insight, we decompose the time series while incorporating a quadratic trend to account for relative changes in the slope over time. Evidence of an underlying downward trend in ridership challenges the value of making large scale investments in transit capacity especially in the presence of increasing excess capacity.
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Rege, Sameer, and Samuel Gil Martín. "PORTUGUESE STOCK MARKET: A LONG-MEMORY PROCESS?" Business: Theory and Practice 12, no. 1 (March 10, 2011): 75–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/btp.2011.08.
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This paper gives a basic overview of the various attempts at modelling stochastic processes for stock markets with a specific application to the Portuguese stock market data. Long-memory dependence in the stock prices would completely alter the data generation process and econometric models not considering the long-range dependence would exhibit poor forecasting abilities. The Hurst exponent is used to identify the presence of long-memory or fractal behaviour of the data generation process for the daily returns to ascertain if the process follows a fractional brownian motion. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) using linear and quadratic trends and the Geweke Porter-Hudak methods are applied to detect the presence of long-memory or persistence. We find that the daily returns exhibit a small amount of long memory and that the quadratic trend used in the DFA overestimates the value of the Hurst exponent. These findings are corroborated by the use of the Geweke Porter-Hudak method wherein the Hurst exponent is close to the DFA using the linear trend.
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Azzam, Mahmoud Mostafa, Rashed Alhotan, Abdulaziz Al-Abdullatif, Saud Al-Mufarrej, Mohammed Mabkhot, Ibrahim Abdullah Alhidary, and Chuntian Zheng. "Threonine Requirements in Dietary Low Crude Protein for Laying Hens under High-Temperature Environmental Climate." Animals 9, no. 9 (August 21, 2019): 586. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani9090586.
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Lohmann Brown hens (n = 420), at 28 weeks of age, were divided into five dietary treatments, and each treatment included six replicates of 14 laying hens. Dietary crude protein (14%) was presented as the control diet. Dietary L-Thr was added to the control diet for 12 weeks. Dietary Thr levels are 0.43%, 0.49%, 0.57%, 0.66%, and 0.74%, based on digestible base. From 28 to 40 weeks, hen-day egg production presented a quadratic trend to supplementing dietary Thr (R2 = 0.96, p = 0.02), and reached a maximum level at 0.58%. Serum uric acid demonstrated a quadratic trend (R2 = 0.62, p = 0.02) at 0.59%. Both serum total cholesterol and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl (HMG-CoA) reductase showed lower levels (p < 0.05) at 0.66% Thr. Serum CuZn-SOD elevated (p < 0.05) at 0.49%, 0.57%, and 0.66% Thr, as compared to the control group, and showed a quadratic trend (R2 = 0.87, p = 0.003) at 0.56%. Supplemental L-Thr decreased (p < 0.05) the expression of ileal HSP70 at 0.66% Thr. In summary, the optimal dietary Thr requirements to optimize egg production, serum uric acid, and serum CuZn-SOD were 0.58%, 0.59%, and 0.56%, respectively, by regression analysis.
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Joodaki, G., and H. Nahavandchi. "Mass balance and mass loss acceleration of the Greenland ice sheet (2002 - 2011) from GRACE gravity data." Journal of Geodetic Science 2, no. 2 (January 1, 2012): 156–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10156-011-0032-9.
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Mass balance and mass loss acceleration of the Greenland ice sheet (2002 - 2011) from GRACE gravity dataWe examine the magnitude and acceleration of the Greenland ice sheet mass loss between 2002 and 2011. We use monthly observations of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity mission. The Greenland mass loss during this time period is not a constant, but accelerating with time. We have used a quadratic trend in addition to a linear trend, which is usually applied to the GRACE monthly time series of ice mass changes, to show that it better represents GRACE observations. Results of computations provide a mass decrease of -166±20 Gigatonne per year (Gt/yr) by using a linear trend and -111±21 Gt/yr by fitting a quadratic trend to the monthly time series. Quadratic fitting shows that the mass loss increases from -121 Gt/yr in 2002 - 2003 to -210 Gt/yr in 2006 - 2007 and -271 Gt/yr in 2010 - 2011 with an acceleration of -32±6 Gt/yr2 in 2002 - 2011. This implies that the Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise becomes larger with time. Contrary to recent studies, we use a non-isotropic filter whose degree of smoothing corresponds to a Gaussian filter with a radius of 340 km. Stripping effects in the GRACE data, C20 effect, and leakage effects are applied.
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O.A., Adejumo, Onifade O.C., and Albert S. "Kalman Filter Algorithm versus Other Methods of Estimating Missing Values: Time Series Evidence." African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies 4, no. 2 (May 3, 2021): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.52589/ajmss-vfvnmqlx.
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Ideally, we think data are carefully collected and have regular patterns with no missing values, but in reality, this does not always happen. This study examines four (4) methods—mean imputation (MI), median imputation (MDI), linear imputation (LI) and Kalman filter algorithm (KAL)—of estimating missing values in time series. The study utilized pairs of nine (9) simulated series; each pair constitutes “actual series” and “12% missingness series”. The three (3) sample sizes i.e. small (50), medium (200) and large (1000) were varied over the additive models linear, quadratic and exponential forms of trend. The 12% missingness series were estimated using MI, MDI, LI and KAL. The performances of the method were checked using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), while the overall performances of the estimating methods were accessed using the average of the accuracy measures (RMSE, MAE and MAPE). The results of the average-accuracy measures show that KAL outperformed other methods (MI, MDI and LI) at the three sample sizes when the trend was linear; also, MDI outperformed other methods at the three (3) sample sizes when the trend was exponential. Furthermore, MI outperformed others at small and large sample sizes when the trend was quadratic. However, the Kalman filter algorithm proved better when the sample size was medium. Hence, KAL, MI and MDI methods are recommended to estimate missing data in time series when the trend is linear, quadratic and exponential respectively, until further study proves otherwise.
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Orheruata, A. M., and O. Olutogun. "Estimates of phenotypic and genetic trends of growth traits in N'dama herd in Nigeria." Nigerian Journal of Animal Production 29, no. 2 (January 1, 2021): 155–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.51791/njap.v29i2.1555.
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Data on birth weight (BTHWT), 205-day adjusted weaning weighi (ADWNWT), and pre-weaning daily gain (ADG) of N'Dama reared at Fasola Stock Farm between 1947 and 1984 were obtained and used to estimate phenotype and genetic trends of these traits. Estimated phenotypic trend was 0.07+0.02 kg/vr, 0.18-0.06kg/yr and -0.005 +0.003kg/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. In contrast, all estimated genetic trends were relatively small and not significantly different from zero. They were 0.02+0.05kg/yr, 0.02+0.05kg/yr and 0.1g/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. The sequential polynomial fitting of the data set indicated that quadratic function adequately described the data with the following regression equation: Y = 9.91 + 0.016 + 0.026 Y = 46.44 - 0.156 + 0.0162 Y = 0.21 - 0.00025 + 1.1862 for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively for phenotypic trend curve while for genetic trend curve Y = 0.10 -0.016-0.346' was obtained for BTHWT and ADWNWT and Y = 0.002 - 0.00026' - 70.85b for ADG.
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Zolna, Konrad, Phong B. Dao, Wieslaw J. Staszewski, and Tomasz Barszcz. "Nonlinear Cointegration Approach for Condition Monitoring of Wind Turbines." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/978156.
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Monitoring of trends and removal of undesired trends from operational/process parameters in wind turbines is important for their condition monitoring. This paper presents the homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration for the solution to this problem. The cointegration approach used leads to stable variances in cointegration residuals. The adapted Breusch-Pagan test procedure is developed to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity in cointegration residuals obtained from the nonlinear cointegration analysis. Examples using three different time series data sets—that is, one with a nonlinear quadratic deterministic trend, another with a nonlinear exponential deterministic trend, and experimental data from a wind turbine drivetrain—are used to illustrate the method and demonstrate possible practical applications. The results show that the proposed approach can be used for effective removal of nonlinear trends form various types of data, allowing for possible condition monitoring applications.
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Supuwiningsih, Ni Nyoman. "PERAMALAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI HASIL PERTANIAN DI DENPASAR UTARA MENGGUNAKAN BAHASA SCRIPT AVENUE GIS." Telematika 15, no. 1 (April 30, 2018): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.31315/telematika.v15i1.3064.
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AbstractAgriculture is an activity in the utilization of natural resources conducted by humans to meet human needs, especially staple food Agricultural activities can produce foodstuffs, raw materials for industrial businesses, energy and can balance natural ecosystems. Formerly in Indonesia, agriculture is the main livelihood of the people because Indonesia is so fertile that whatever is planted can grow well. Over time all about the function of agriculture may have been forgotten by some people due to several factors such as population growth so that land conversion is done to housing, economic factors that do not allow to become farmers because most people think of it as Farmers of the future are not guaranteed so that people turn to other livelihoods which is considered promising and other factors such as opening shop, minister mini market and so on. Based on these problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of agricultural production using the Quadratic Trend Methods based on GIS application (Geographic Information System) using the script language Avenue. Avenue is a script or object-oriented programming language (OOP / Object Oriented Programming). This Avenue could be a new interface in ArcView, a repetitive work automation that does not yet exist in ArcView. Avenue is widely used to form the application information system based on ArcView GIS. Forecasting method used is quadratic trend method. Keywords : Agriculture, Quadratic Trend Methods, GIS AbstrakPertanian merupakan aktivitas dalam memanfaatkan sumber daya alam yang dilakukan oleh manusia untuk memenuhi kebutuhan manusia terutama bahan makanan pokok (Pertanian, K., 2013). Kegiatan pertanian dapat menghasilkan bahan makanan, bahan baku untuk perusahaan industri, energi dan dapat menyeimbangkan ekosistem alam. Pada jaman dahulu di Indonesia, pertanian merupakan mata pencaharian utama masyarakat karena Indonesia memiliki tanah yang subur sehingga apapun yang ditanam dapat tumbuh dengan baik. Seiring berjalannya waktu semua mengenai fungsi pertanian mungkin sudah dilupakan oleh sebagian orang karena beberapa faktor seperti pertambahan populasi penduduk sehingga dilakukan alih fungsi lahan menjadi perumahan, faktor ekonomi yang tidak memungkinkan menjadi petani karena kebanyakan masyarakat menganggap menjadi petani masa depan tidak terjamin sehingga masyarakat sudah beralih ke mata pencaharian lain yang dianggap sudah menjanjikan dan faktor lainnya seperti membuka toko, menjadi pelayan minimarket dan lain sebagainya. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut dibutuhkan peramalan jumlah produksi pertanian menggunakan metode tren kuadratis (Quadratic Trend Methods) berbasis GIS (Geographic Information System) aplikatif menggunakan bahasa script Avenue. Avenue adalah sebuah script atau bahasa pemrograman berorientasi object (OOP/Object Oriented Programming). Avenue ini dapat dibentuk sebuah interface baru pada ArcView, otomasi pekerjaan-pekerjaan yang bersifat berulang (repetitif) belum terdapat pada ArcView tersebut. Avenue banyak digunakan untuk membentuk sebuah sistem informasi aplikatif berbasis ArcView GIS. Metode peramalan yang digunakan adalah metode tren kuadratis. Kata Kunci : Pertanian, metode tren kuadratis, GIS
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Mitratza, Marianna, Anton E. Kunst, and Jan W. P. F. Kardaun. "Detecting Mortality Trends in the Netherlands Across 625 Causes of Death." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 21 (October 28, 2019): 4150. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16214150.
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Cause of death (COD) data are essential to public health monitoring and policy. This study aims to determine the proportion of CODs, at ICD-10 three-position level, for which a long-term or short-term trend can be identified, and to examine how much the likelihood of identifying trends varies with COD size. We calculated annual age-standardized counts of deaths from Statistics Netherlands for the period 1996–2015 for 625 CODs. We applied linear regression models to estimate long-term trends, and outlier analysis to detect short-term changes. The association of the likelihood of a long-term trend with COD size was analyzed with multinomial logistic regression. No long-term trend could be demonstrated for 216 CODs (34.5%). For the remaining 409 causes, a trend could be detected, following a linear (211, 33.8%), quadratic (126, 20.2%) or cubic model (72, 11.5%). The probability of detecting a long-term trend increased from about 50% at six mean annual deaths, to 65% at 22 deaths and 75% at 60 deaths. An exceptionally high or low number of deaths in a single year was found for 16 CODs. When monitoring long-term mortality trends, one could consider a much broader range of causes of death, including ones with a relatively low number of annual deaths, than commonly used in condensed lists.
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Tavakoli, P., U. Vollmer-Conna, X. Vazquez Campos, D. Hadzi-Pavlovic, and M. Grimm. "P289 Biological therapies and the trajectories of biopsychological factors in inflammatory bowel diseases." Journal of Crohn's and Colitis 14, Supplement_1 (January 2020): S296—S297. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjz203.418.
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Abstract Background Therapeutic aims in IBDs are to induce remission through rapidly effective treatment. Conventional therapeutic methods including immunosuppression have been available for more than half a century with biological therapies the treatment of choice in patients who fail immunosuppressive drugs. There has been little attempt to longitudinally examine the differences in biopsychological factors and their associations with treatment modalities in IBD patients. Methods 50 IBD participants (24 UC, 26 CD) in clinical remission were followed for 12 months. Complete longitudinal datasets including demography, disease status (HBI, Mayo score), monthly stool and blood samples for inflammatory biomarkers, monthly validated scores of psychological state, baseline physiological state and autonomic function were collected for analysis of association. Microbiome analysis was performed using V4 16SrRNA for identification of microbial phylogenetic relationships. Patients were grouped on whether or not they were in remission on biological agents. Results CD: There was a larger magnitude of change in linear trends of anxiety (p = 0.007) in CD patients on non-biologic treatment. Quality of life (QOL), health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and faecal calprotectin measures were similar regardless of treatment. Longitudinal quadratic trends of CRP were significantly different between the two (p = 0.039) with the larger magnitude of change in non-biologic groups. CD patients had similar microbial profile when compared between two treatment groups. UC: Similar distributions of longitudinal psychological measures were found in two treatment groups, although results suggested significant linear trend (p = 0.019) in QOL scores but not with HRQOL. Faecal calprotectin had significant longitudinal linear trend (p = 0.016) with significant interaction between biologic therapy and this trend (p = 0.023). CRP had significant quadratic trend (p = 0.005) with strong interaction between biologic therapy and this trend (p = 0.009). Microbial α diversity was significantly different between two groups of treatments (Shannon; p = 0.041, evenness; p = 0.045) with biologic group having more diverse and more even microbial community. Conclusion Baseline biological and psychological factors were mostly similarly distributed between the two treatment options in remissive IBD patients, however biological therapy significantly influenced longitudinal trends of some psychological, inflammatory and microbiome dynamics, especially in UC. This suggests an underlying interrelationship between mode of treatment and biopsychological trajectories which might overshadow response to the treatment, requiring further assessment.
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Jarvandi, Soghra, Mario Schootman, and Susan B. Racette. "Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: influence on daily energy intake." Public Health Nutrition 18, no. 12 (December 22, 2014): 2146–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1368980014002973.
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AbstractObjectiveTo assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes.DesignCross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24 h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable), expressed in either absolute or relative (percentage of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, BMI, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on energy intake at lunch, dinner and snacks.SettingThe 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).SubjectsParticipants aged ≥30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (n 1146).ResultsDaily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P<0·0001; quadratic trend, P=0·02), but decreased as relative breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P<0·0001). In addition, while higher quartiles of absolute breakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (P<0·05).ConclusionsConsuming a breakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes.
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Whissell, Cynthia. "The Trend toward more Attractive and Informative Titles: American Psychologist 1946–2010." Psychological Reports 110, no. 2 (April 2012): 427–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/17.28.pr0.110.2.427-444.
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Titles of journal articles serve to attract attention and inform potential readers. All titles from 65 volumes of American Psychologist (1946–2010, N = 12,313 titles) were studied in terms of their emotionality, style, and contents. Several trends noted for titles in different kinds of journals from psychology and other disciplines were present in American Psychologist (increasing title length, increasing use of punctuation marks, increasing employment of words with pleasant and arousing connotations, variations in the frequency of different content words). Longer titles allow authors to specify more information, and emotionally upbeat titles are more likely to attract reader attention. In an unexpected quadratic trend, titles became more abstract and the number of titles increased until about 1985, after which the trend was reversed and titles became more concrete as their numbers decreased. Predictors of this trend include societal variables and the journal's editorial policies.
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Maca, Erich, and Milan Palát. "Analysis of the development and prediction of the rate of unemployment in selected countries with market and transitive economy." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 52, no. 6 (2004): 105–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun200452060105.
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The paper is aimed at the presentation of findings achieved in the study of the dynamics and trends of the rate of unemployment in selected countries with market and transitive economy in the reference period 1995–2001. In addition to the description of developmental trends of analysed time series by means of trend functions of linear, quadratic, exponential, logarithmic, power and inverse types their informative ability was verified as a starting base for the realization of point prediction of investigated events for 2005. With given 95% probability, minimum and maximum values are determined of the evaluated macroeconomic indicator for a defined time horizon.
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Yang, Xin, Jason Parton, Dwight Lewis, Ning Yang, and Matthew Hudnall. "Effects of Patient-Physician Relationship on Withholding Information Behavior and Its Trend: Findings From Health Information National Trends Survey 2011-2018." Journal of Medical Internet Research 22, no. 1 (January 27, 2020): e16713. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/16713.
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Background Patients’ withholding information from doctors can undermine medical treatment, create barriers for appropriate diagnoses, and increase systemic cost in health care systems. To date, there is limited literature detailing the association between trends of patients withholding information behavior (WIB) and the patient-physician relationship (PPR). Objective The aim of this study was to explore the prevalence trend of WIB after 2011 and examine the effects of PPR on WIB and its time trend. Methods A total of 5 iterations of data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (years: 2011-2018; n=11,954) were used to explore curvilinear trends of WIB among the US population. Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine curvilinear time trends of WIB, effects of PPR on WIB, and moderation effects of PPR on the WIB time trend. Results The WIB prevalence has an increasing trend before 2014, which has the highest rate of 13.57%, and then it decreases after 2014 to 8.65%. The trend of WIB is curvilinear as the quadratic term in logistic regression model was statistically significant (P=.04; beta=−.022; SE=0.011; odds ratio [OR] 0.978, 95% CI 0.957-0.999). PPR is reversely associated with WIB (P<.001; beta=−.462; SE=0.097; OR 0.630, 95% CI 0.518-0.766) and has a significant moderation effect on time trends (P=.02; beta=−.06; SE=0.025; OR 0.941, 95% CI 0.896-0.989). In general, poor quality of PPR not only significantly increased the WIB probability but also postponed the change of point for WIB curvilinear trend. Conclusions Findings suggest that the time trend of WIB between 2011 and 2018 is curvilinear and moderated by the quality of the PPR. Given these results, providers may reduce WIB by improving PPR. More research is needed to confirm these findings.
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Emmanuel, Biu O., Dennis Enegesele, and C. O. Arimie. "Additive Decomposition with Arima Model Forecasts When the Trend Component Is Quadratic." OALib 07, no. 07 (2020): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1106435.
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Taylor, Lee, Adrian W. Midgley, Bryna Chrismas, Leigh A. Madden, Rebecca V. Vince, and Lars R. McNaughton. "Daily quadratic trend in basal monocyte expressed HSP72 in healthy human subjects." Amino Acids 38, no. 5 (October 9, 2009): 1483–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00726-009-0360-6.
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Fritsch, Frauke, Hella Garny, Andreas Engel, Harald Bönisch, and Roland Eichinger. "Sensitivity of age of air trends to the derivation method for non-linear increasing inert SF<sub>6</sub>." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 14 (July 23, 2020): 8709–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8709-2020.
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Abstract. Mean age of air (AoA) is a diagnostic of transport along the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. While models consistently show negative trends, long-term time series (1975–2016) of AoA derived from observations show non-significant positive trends in mean AoA in the Northern Hemisphere. This discrepancy between observed and modelled mean AoA trends is still not resolved. There are uncertainties and assumptions required when deriving AoA from trace gas observations. At the same time, AoA from climate models is subject to uncertainties, too. In this paper, we focus on the uncertainties due to the parameter selection in the method that is used to derive mean AoA from SF6 measurements in Engel et al. (2009, 2017). To correct for the non-linear increase in SF6 concentrations, a quadratic fit to the time series at the reference location, i.e. the tropical surface, is used. For this derivation, the width of the AoA distribution (age spectrum) has to be assumed. In addition, to choose the number of years the quadratic fit is performed for, the fraction of the age spectrum to be considered has to be assumed. Even though the uncertainty range due to all different aspects has already been taken into account for the total errors in the AoA values, the systematic influence of the parameter selection on AoA trends is described for the first time in the present study. For this, we use the EMAC (ECHAM MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) climate model as a test bed, where AoA derived from a linear tracer is available as a reference and modelled age spectra exist to diagnose the actual spatial age spectra widths. The comparison of mean AoA from the linear tracer with mean AoA from a SF6 tracer shows systematic deviations specifically in the trends due to the selection of the parameters. However, for an appropriate parameter selection, good agreement for both mean AoA and its trend can be found, with deviations of about 1 % in mean AoA and 12 % in AoA trend. In addition, a method to derive mean AoA is evaluated that applies a convolution to the reference time series. The resulting mean AoA and its trend only depend on an assumption about the ratio of moments. Also in that case, it is found that the larger the ratio of moments, the more the AoA trend gravitates towards the negative. The linear tracer and SF6 AoA are found to agree within 0.3 % in the mean and 6 % in the trend. The different methods and parameter selections were then applied to the balloon-borne SF6 and CO2 observations. We found the same systematic changes in mean AoA trend dependent on the specific selection. When applying a parameter choice that is suggested by the model results, the AoA trend is reduced from 0.15 to 0.07 years per decade. It illustrates that correctly constraining those parameters is crucial for correct mean AoA and trend estimates and still remains a challenge in the real atmosphere.
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Zuckerman, Miron, Chen Li, and Edward F. Diener. "Societal Conditions and the Gender Difference in Well-Being." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 43, no. 3 (January 11, 2017): 329–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0146167216684133.
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Findings from a meta-analysis on gender differences in self-esteem (Zuckerman et al., 2016) suggest that the relation between the degree to which societal conditions are favorable to women and gender difference in self-esteem might be quadratic; when conditions improve, women’s self-esteem (relative to that of men) trends downward but when conditions continue to improve, women’s self-esteem begins to trend upward. Testing whether these relations generalize to subjective well-being, the present study found a quadratic relation between improving societal conditions and the gender difference in life satisfaction and positive affect (women are lower than men when societal conditions are moderately favorable compared to when they are at their worst and at their best); the relation was linear for negative emotion (women report more negative emotions than men when societal conditions are better). Directions for future research that will address potential explanations for these results are proposed.
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Pratiwa Siregar, Abi, Nadia Oktaviana, and Edy Rahmantyo Tarsilohadi. "The Development of Rice Field Area in Special Region of Yogyakarta." SOCA: Jurnal Sosial, Ekonomi Pertanian 14, no. 3 (June 26, 2020): 557. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/soca.2020.v14.i03.p16.
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In general, the development of agricultural land usage change was illustrated through linear trend analysis without comparing it first with other trend analysis. As a consequence, it was assumed that the data will be in a straight line with a tendency for constant numbers over a period of time. However, the facts on the ground proved that the area of ??agricultural land converted into non-agricultural land was not always the same from year to year. The novelty of this research was to do a comparison between linear and non-linear trends to predict the development of rice fields, so that an accurate forecasting model was obtained. The aim of this research were: 1) knowing the development of rice fields area in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, 2) determining the appropriate forecasting model for the development of rice fields area in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, and 3) forecasting the area of ??rice fields in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The data that used came from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics) from 1996 to 2017. The trend models being compared were linear trends, quadratic trends, and exponential trends. The results showed that the area of ??rice fields in the Special Region of Yogyakarta tended to decrease from year to year. The best forecasting model was an exponential trend. In 2017 to 2021, it was estimated that there will be a decrease in rice field area of ??221 hectares or 0.41 percent per year.
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Ervil, Riko, and Mela Rosalina. "Estimasi Permintaan Air Minum Dalam Kemasan Ayia Cup 240 Ml Pada PT. Gunung Naga Mas." JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TEKNOLOGI KEJURUAN 2, no. 2 (May 29, 2019): 67–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/jptk.v2i2.5523.
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Consumer demand is very important in industrial activities at this time, because the new production process will run if there is demand from consumers. The problem that exists at PT Gunung Naga Mas is that the company produces goods without considering market demand, resulting in increased storage costs and also items that are long stored will be damaged. For this reason, it is necessary to forecast demand with linear trend methods, quadratic trends and exponential trends. From the purpose of the study it can be concluded that the most effective method for predicting demand for drinking water in 240 ml cup packaging at PT. Gunung Naga Mas is a linear trend method with MSE value of 544,291,863 and forecast demand for drinking water products in 240 ml cup packaging at PT Gunung Naga Mas in 2018 which is a total of 1,918,768 boxes. So the Company needs to adjust production capacity in 2018.
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Novi, Noviati. "TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR FORESCASTING THE NUMBER OF TUBERCULOSIS IN KENDARI CITY 2018-2023." INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH SCIENCES RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (IJHSRD) 1, no. 1 (December 4, 2019): 72–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.36566/ijhsrd/vol1.iss1/8.
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Tuberculosis is a contagious disease that is still a problem in the world today, not only in developing countries but also in developed countries. That is what happened in Kendari City in 2012 - 2017. Efforts made to prevent the increasing number of tuberculosis in the future is to make predictions. This study aims to study time series analysis in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis based on sex and working area of health centers in Kendari City in 2018-2022. This type of research is quantitative descriptive using the series analysis. Sources of research data obtained from the Kendari City Health Agency in Southeast Sulawesi Province consisted of data on pulmonary TB cases in which sex and working area of Puskesmas in 2012 - 2017 in Kendari City would be processed and analyzed by time series using the trend method into 3 linear trend models, quadratic trends and exponential trends. The results showed the best model for prediction of pulmonary TB cases in Kendari City was the quadratic model. Based on the number of cases predicted to increase in the period 2018 to 2022, with an average decline with an average decrease of 79 cases in men and 286 cases in women. Pulmonary TB cases based on puskesmas area are predicted to increase in 2018 until 2022 with the highest average increase in Kemaraya puskesmas area. While the average decline in cases is highest in the Mata Puskesmas area. It is expected to be able to be information for policy makers, so that prevention and early promotion efforts can be made for the community.
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Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira, and Gabriel Pereira Gazotto. "Mortality trends due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil." Revista da Associação Médica Brasileira 60, no. 3 (June 2014): 255–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9282.60.03.015.
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Objective: the purpose of this study was to update and analyze data on mortality trend due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Brazil. Methods: initially, the specific COPD mortality rates were calculated from 1989 to 2009 using data collected from DATASUS (Departamento de Informática do SUS - Brazilian Health System Database). Then, the polynomial regression models from the observed functional relation were estimated based on mortality coefficients and study years. Results: we verified that the general mortality rates due to COPD in Brazil showed an increasing trend from 1989 to 2004, and then decreased. Both genders showed the same increasing tendencies until 2004 and decreased thereafter. The age group under 35 years old showed a linear decreasing trend. All other age groups showed quadratic tendencies, with increases until the years of 1998-1999 and then decreasing. The South and Southeast regions showed the highest COPD mortality rates with increasing trends until the years 2001-2002 and then decreased. The North, Northeast and Central-West regions showed lower mortality rates but increasing trend. Conclusion: this is the first report of COPD mortality stabilization in Brazil since 1980.
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Hsu, Tzu-Kuang, Chin-Chang Tsai, and Kuo-Liang Cheng. "Forecast of 2013–2025 crude oil prices: Quadratic sine-curve trend model application." Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 11, no. 3 (March 3, 2016): 205–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2013.797053.
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Xu, Qian, Zhou Lan, Jin Hua Huang, Hong Hao Qin, and Xiao Min Xu. "Load Forecasting of Zhejiang Province Based on Combined Optimization Methods." Advanced Materials Research 998-999 (July 2014): 1046–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.998-999.1046.
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On the basis of analysis in Zhejiang, this paper uses the trend fitting method, the quadratic exponential smoothing model and multiple linear regression and grey GM (1, 1) portfolio model to forecast electricity consumption in 2012-2020 in Zhejiang, and compare the various methods of prediction accuracy.
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Masood, M. Asif, Irum Raza, and Saleem Abid. "Forecasting Wheat Production Using Time Series Models in Pakistan." Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development 8, no. 2 (February 8, 2019): 172–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.1005/2018.8.2/1005.2.172.177.
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The present paper was designed to forecast wheat production for 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-2020 respectively by using time series data from 1971-72 to 2016-17 with best selected time series models. Linear, Quadratic, Exponential, S-Curve, Double Exponential Smoothing, Single exponential smoothing, Moving average and ARIMA were estimated for wheat production. The results showed a mix trend in production of wheat for selected time period. ARIMA (2,1,2) was found best one keeping in view close forecasts with actual reported wheat production. So the preference inclined towards the ARIMA (2,1,2) than quadratic to forecasts of wheat production.
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Sufiyan, Ibrahim. "RAINFALL TREND AND IT IMPACT IN KEFFI NASARAWA STATE." Engineering Heritage Journal 4, no. 1 (June 29, 2020): 23–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.26480/gwk.01.2020.23.26.
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Rainfall is the vital ingredient and factor of soil nourishment on which crops are grown. The basic agricultural practices all over the world depend on rainfed cultivation for their sustainable development. This study focus on the rainfall trend between 2010 -2018 as it affects crop production in Keffi Nasarawa State, Nigeria. The time series analysis was conducted by using appropriate techniques of data collection and analysis. The linear integration model, quadratic trend model, growth curve model and regression analysis was applied to show the correlation between the rainfall and crop production in the study area. It was discovered that the period of rainy months have high correction and significantly fitted the model which indication high crop yields per harvest.
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Pinilla, Jaime, and Miguel Negrín. "Non-Parametric Generalized Additive Models as a Tool for Evaluating Policy Interventions." Mathematics 9, no. 4 (February 3, 2021): 299. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9040299.
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The interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design used to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention. Segmented linear regression models have been the most used models to carry out this analysis. However, they assume a linear trend that may not be appropriate in many situations. In this paper, we show how generalized additive models (GAMs), a non-parametric regression-based method, can be useful to accommodate nonlinear trends. An analysis with simulated data is carried out to assess the performance of both models. Data were simulated from linear and non-linear (quadratic and cubic) functions. The results of this analysis show how GAMs improve on segmented linear regression models when the trend is non-linear, but they also show a good performance when the trend is linear. A real-life application where the impact of the 2012 Spanish cost-sharing reforms on pharmaceutical prescription is also analyzed. Seasonality and an indicator variable for the stockpiling effect are included as explanatory variables. The segmented linear regression model shows good fit of the data. However, the GAM concludes that the hypothesis of linear trend is rejected. The estimated level shift is similar for both models but the cumulative absolute effect on the number of prescriptions is lower in GAM.
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Zhou, Chao, Dongyu Liu, Pengfei Zhou, Jie Luo, Serhat Yuksel, and Hasan Dincer. "Hybrid Predictive Decision-Making Approach to Emission Reduction Policies for Sustainable Energy Industry." Energies 13, no. 9 (May 2, 2020): 2220. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13092220.
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Carbon emissions are a prominent issue for sustainable energy production and management. Energy policies under the growing competitive environment could change the priorities of emission reduction and investment decisions. This paper aims to forecast carbon emissions from China and to rank the importance of carbon emissions with interval type 2 (IT2) fuzzy sets (FS) for sustainable energy investments. For this purpose, the quadratic model is applied to measuring emission trends and the Qualitative Flexible Multiple Criteria Method (QUALIFLEX) is used for measuring sustainable energy investment alternatives by the several emission levels. Forecasted values of 29 provinces in China are converted into the linguistic and fuzzy numbers based on IT2 FS respectively to measure the priorities of emission reduction for sustainable economies. The novelty of this paper is to propose a hybrid decision-making approach based on quadratic modeling and the QUALIFLEX method and to discuss the overall energy emission trend and policies for sustainable economic growth. The results demonstrate that emission reduction policies are the most important phenomenon and the environmental factors should be widely considered to construct sustainable energy investments and production.
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Ryu, Seungho, Paul Loprinzi, Heontae Kim, and Minsoo Kang. "Temporal Trends in the Association between Participation in Physical Education and Physical Activity among U.S. High School Students, 2011–2017." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 7 (March 31, 2020): 2357. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17072357.
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The purpose of this study was to assess trends in physical education and physical activity among U.S. high school students from 2011 to 2017, respectively, and to evaluate temporal trends in the relationship between physical education class participation and physical activity levels. Data from a total of 51,616 high school students who participated in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2011 to 2017 were analyzed for this study. Physical education was measured as follows: In an average week when you are in school, on how many days do you go to physical education classes? Physical activity was measured as follows: During the past 7 days, on how many days were you physically active for a total of at least 60 min per day? Meeting physical activity guideline was defined as engaging in 7 days per week of at least 60 min per day. Across the 2011–2017 YRBSS, there were no linear (p = 0.44)/quadratic trends (p = 0.37) in physical education and linear (p = 0.27)/quadratic trends (p = 0.25) in physical activity, respectively. Regarding the trends in the association between physical education and physical activity, there were no statistically significant linear (unstandardized regression coefficient (b) = 0.013, p = 0.43) or quadratic (p = 0.75) trends; however, at the sample level, there was a slight increase in the odds ratio effect sizes from 2011 to 2017 (ES = 1.80–1.98). The pooled association between physical education participation and physical activity was statistically significant, OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.75–2.03, p < 0.001. That is, on average across the four YRBSS cycles, students who participated in physical education had 1.88 times higher odds of meeting physical activity guideline when compared to students who did not participate in physical education. The trends of physical education and physical activity did not change between 2011 and 2017. Overall, we observed a significant relationship between participation in physical education and physical activity. There was a non-significant yet stable trend of association between participation in physical education and physical activity over time.
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Watanabe, Pedro Henrique, Maria Cristina Thomaz, Urbano dos Santos Ruiz, Vivian Maia dos Santos, Alessandro Luís Fraga, Leonardo Augusto Fonseca Pascoal, Susana Zaneti da Silva, and Henrique Gonzáles de Faria. "Effect of inclusion of citrus pulp in the diet of finishing swines." Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology 53, no. 3 (June 2010): 709–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1516-89132010000300028.
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The aim of this work was to study the effect of inclusion of citrus pulp in the diet of finishing pigs. In the first trial, 16 Topigs barrows with 80.5±4.7 kg of initial BW were used to evaluate the digestibility of citrus pulp. Having 18.85% of neutral detergent fiber and 41.18% of neutral detergent soluble fiber, citrus pulp showed as a feasible alternative ingredient to be added in the diets of feed restricted finishing pigs. Second trial tested the use of 0, 10, 20, 30% of citrus pulp in the diets of 36-feed-restricted barrows with initial BW of 83.7±5.1 kg. A quadratic trend (P<0.05) as function of citrus pulp levels was observed for daily weight gain and number of experimental days to reach 130kg BW, being the best estimated inclusion levels of citrus pulp 10.79 and 10.97%, respectively. For urea and triacylglycerol serological parameters, no effects of citrus pulp were observed (P>0.05), but a quadratic trend existed on cholesterol serological content.
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Tuan, Hoang Quoc, Nguyen Duy Thinh, and Nguyen Thi Minh Tu. "AMINO ACID COMPOSITION AS PRECURSOR FLAVORS CHANGES IN TEA LEAVES (CAMELLIA SINENSIS) DURING ORTHODOX BLACK TEA MANUFACTURING." Vietnam Journal of Science and Technology 55, no. 1 (February 8, 2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.15625/0866-708x/55/1/8318.
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The content of amino acids in tea leaves at different stages of OTD black tea manufacture was measured. Considerable changes of amino acids were observed in all stages but in each stage, total free amino acids was found to be increase both in withering fermentation stages and was dramatically decrease at frying stages. The results showed that the some of free a-amino acid contents which was defined as flavour precursor like phenylalnine, methionine and isoleucine in tea leaves were significantly increase during withering whereas they was found to be an decreasing trend during fermentation but others a-amino acid contents like alanine, methionine and glycine was found to be trend increase in both stage of processing. The zero-order, first-order and quadratic models were used to explain the a-amino acid included alanine, valine, isoleucine, leucine and phenylalanine changes kinetics during processing and it was observed that the linear, growth, compounds and quadratic model could be used for explaning the changes of flavour compounds during OTD black tea manufature.
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Supuwiningsih, Ni Nyoman, PaulaDewanti, Ni KadekSukerti, and I. Made AgusWirahadi Putra. "FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION RESULTS IN SOUTH DENPASAR USING QUADRATIC TREND METHOD BASED GIS." International Journal of Engineering Technologies and Management Research 5, no. 2 (February 8, 2020): 170–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/ijetmr.v5.i2.2018.160.
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Agriculture is an activity of exploiting natural resources performed by humans to meet their needs, especially as staple food. Agricultural activities can produce foodstuffs, raw materials for industry, energy and also can balance the natural ecosystems. People may have forgotten the function of agriculture for several factors. Mentioning one, the population growth, with the result that land conversion is done to housing. Another, an economic concern that being a farmer does not guarantee the future, so that people have turned to other livelihoods that are considered promising, and other factors. Based on these facts that there has been a decline in agricultural land from 2011-2014 in Denpasar area, especially South Denpasar District, which can affect the amount of agricultural production as staple food. Total production of staple crops, especially rice plants, has decreased significantly in 2014.It became great concern to government and people in finding a solution. Due to lack of information on the impact of agricultural land conversion that affects the production, so that food needs are not met. Based on those problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of agricultural production using Quadratic Trend Method based on GIS (Geographic Information System) application using ArcView software. The results of this forecast that are implemented with a digital map can be used as a reference to the government in making decisions and create people awareness how important it is to preserve agriculture.
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Xu, Qianqian, Huaiyu Li, Wenting Zhou, Xiaoting Zou, and Xinyang Dong. "Age-Related Changes in Serum Lipid Levels, Hepatic Morphology, Antioxidant Status, Lipid Metabolism Related Gene Expression and Enzyme Activities of Domestic Pigeon Squabs (Columba livia)." Animals 10, no. 7 (July 1, 2020): 1121. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani10071121.
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The objective of this study was to evaluate the age-related changes in antioxidant status and the lipid metabolism of pigeon squabs (Columba livia), by determining the BW, antioxidant indices, serum lipid levels, lipid metabolism-related enzyme activities, lipid metabolism-related gene expression, and liver morphology in squabs. Ten squabs were randomly selected and sampled on the day of hatching (DOH), days 7 (D7), 14 (D14) and 21 (D21) post-hatch, respectively. The results showed that BW of squabs increased linearly from DOH to D21. The minimum fold of BW gain was observed in the phase from D14 to D21. Serum triglyceride and free fatty acid levels displayed linear and quadratic trends as age increased, with these maximum responses in D14. Serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level responded to age linearly and quadratically with the minimum in D14. Serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and the ratio of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol increased linearly with age, whereas the very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level decreased linearly. The activities of glutathione peroxidase, catalase, and superoxide dismutase in liver displayed linear and quadratic trends as age increased, with these minimum responses in D14. Hepatic malondialdehyde concentration responded to age linearly and quadratically, with the maximum in D14. Activities of lipoprotein lipase, hepatic lipase, and 3-hydroxy-3-methyl glutaryl coenzyme A reductase in liver responded to age linearly and quadratically, with these minimum responses in D14. Hepatic hormone-sensitive lipase activity displayed linear and quadratic trends as age increased with the maximum in D14. Hepatic acetyl CoA carboxylase activity on D14 was significantly lower than squabs on DOH and D7. Hepatic carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1 mRNA expression responded to age linearly and quadratically, with minimum response in D14. Hepatic mRNA expression of acetyl CoA carboxylase and fatty acid synthetase increased linearly with age. Hepatic Oil-Red-O staining area displayed a quadratic trend as age increased, with the maximum response in D14. In conclusion, the phase from DOH to D14 was a crucial development stage for growth, antioxidant status and lipid metabolism in pigeon squabs. The results suggest it is better to take nutritional manipulation in squabs before D14.
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Sullivan, Richard J. "Patent Counts and Textile Invention: A Comment on Griffiths, Hunt, and O’Brien." Journal of Economic History 55, no. 3 (September 1995): 666–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022050700041693.
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Our best estimates fail to reveal significant quantitative changes in the level of macroeconomic variables (such as per capita output or the savings rate) for Britain during the eighteenth century.1 Efforts that investigate economic activity at the industrial level are, therefore, well placed if the concept of Industrial Revolution is to remain useful. For example, N. F. R. Crafts and T. C. Mills use a segmented quadratic-trend model of industrial production and find that the trend rate of growth accelerated in 1776.2 In addition, my own research has revealed trend acceleration for industrial-level patented invention in the 1760-to-1790 period, which is consistent with Joel Mokyr’s argument that the essence of the Industrial Revolution was a cluster of pivotal “macroinventions” made in this period.3
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Oyinbo, Oyakhilomen, Grace ZibahRekwot, and Hassan OnipeSaliu. "Assessment of the suitability of grafted model in forecasting rice consumption trend in nigeria." Journal of Management and Science 1, no. 1 (June 30, 2013): 114–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.26524/jms.2013.15.
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This paper was designed to examine the predictive power of grafted polynomial functional form in forecasting rice consumption in Nigeria with a linear model used as bench mark. Data on rice consumption trend in Nigeria from 1961 to 2011 elicited from the United States department of Agriculture foreign Agricultural services were utilized in this study. It was observed that rice consumption did not correlate linearly with trend over the entire sample period and this necessitatedthe grafting of a Linear – Quadratic – Linear model. The ex-post forecasts of the grafted model had lesser forecast error and were closer to the observed values than that of the linear model which had greater forecast error. Therefore, the predictive performance of the grafted model is more reliable in forecasting future trend of rice consumption in Nigeria for planning purposes.
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Xavier Júnior, Sílvio Fernando Alves, Jader da Silva Jale, Tatijana Stosic, Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos, and Vijay P. Singh. "Precipitation trends analysis by Mann-Kendall test: a case study of Paraíba, Brazil." Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 35, no. 2 (June 2020): 187–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786351013.
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Abstract This work aimed to select semivariogram models to estimate trends in monthly precipitation in Paraiba State-Brazil using ordinary kriging. The methodology involves the application of geostatistical interpolation of precipitation records of 51 years from 69 rainfall stations across the state. Analysis of semivariograms showed that specific months had a strong spatial dependence (Index of Spatial Dependence - IDE < 25%). The trends were subjected to the following models: circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, K-Bessel and tetraspherical. The best fit models were selected by cross-validation and Error Comparison Index (ECI). Each data set (month) had a particular spatial dependence structure, which made it necessary to define specific models of semivariogram in order to enhance the adjustment of the experimental semivariogram. Besides, the monthly trend map was plotted to justify the chosen models.
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Morgan, D. D. V., and M. K. V. Carr. "Analysis of Experiments Involving Line Source Sprinkler Irrigation." Experimental Agriculture 24, no. 2 (April 1988): 169–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s001447970001591x.
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SUMMARYThe line-source sprinkler irrigation system provides a continuously variable water application rate, which depends on distance from the line-source. The system is simple to set up and minimizes the amount of land required for experimental work. As the irrigation treatments are allocated systematically, the assumptions of analysis of variance are not satisfied. It is proposed that the effects of irrigation treatments be assessed using analysis of covariance, with distance from the sprinkler line as covariate, thus adjusting for a linear fertility trend. This method of analysis provides an approximate residual mean square for the fitting of response curves, but could be vulnerable to a quadratic fertility trend.
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Qiu, Bing, and Jie Li. "Reconstruction of Uncertain Historical Evolution of the Polysyllablization of Chinese Lexis." Journal of Applied Mathematics 2014 (2014): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/123983.
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Polysyllablization, closely related to phonetics, semantics, and syntactics, is one of the fundamental trends in the development of Chinese lexis. However, with lots of uncertainties in the historical evolution of Chinese language, the quantitative modeling and reconstruction of polysyllablization remain open questions. Based on theComprehensive Dictionary of Chinese Words, a mapping from the words to their time of occurrence is built. With the inverse mapping on random samples, the newly produced words with different numbers of syllables in different time periods are obtained. Finally the total quadratic variation minimization model is adopted to estimate the trend of polysyllablization. As a novel exploration in the computational linguistics, the results agree with the stage division of historical Chinese and answer some difficult questions related to polysyllablization in a quantitative manner.