Academic literature on the topic 'Quaker authors'

Abstract Women occupied a central place in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century transatlantic Quakerism. They acted as prophets, missionaries, authors and spiritual leaders of their communities. Recent scholarship has offered important insights into the unparalleled public roles available to women within the early Quaker community. But little is known about the networks of hospitality that developed across the British Atlantic that made itinerant missionary service possible. The generosity of countless female Quakers to unknown “Friends” remains an underexplored aspect of early Quaker history. Using printed spiritual testimonies and correspondence exchanged between Quaker missionaries and their female hosts, this article shows how ministers were “sustained” during their travels. Active religious service did not have to equate to ministerial work, and networks of female hospitality provided an important accompaniment to the national and transatlantic Quaker mission.

The authors focus on the case of the “Trident Three”, who boarded a Trident submarine control station on barge on a Scottish loch and, using their bare hands and small hammers, disabled much of the computer equipment in the station, temporarily disarming one third of Britain’s nuclear weapons system. Drawing primarily on a discourse analysis of the case, the authors identify a profound disjuncture between the ways in which the law and religious discourse framed the actions of the Trident Three. They explore the ways in which religious claims are reshaped by legal discourse as isolated actions rather than as actions set in a broader moral context with transcendental implications. Their project is to conduct a socio-legal analysis of competing discourses, paying particular attention to the ways in which power relations are worked out. They also acknowledge the contribution of social movements literature to an understanding of the ways in which groups deploy notions of “the good society” or “the public good” in order to ground their justification of choice of action.

In this essay, the authors use an archival collection housed at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Library Special Research Collections to examine how the concept of “the book” changes in light of historical archival practices and present-day techniques of digitization and computational literary analysis. The Ballitore Collection consists of roughly 2,500 letters, journals, and notes related to the eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Irish Quaker community of Ballitore, Ireland. Researchers on the Ballitore Project have applied the computational methods of network analysis and topic modeling to the collection while considering how its history of collection and curation affect our interpretation of the materials. Just as the documents in the Ballitore Collection have been created, collected, edited, disassembled, reassembled, and curated by networks of writers, readers, and librarians over time, so the Ballitore Project has been run by a diverse, collaborative, nonhierarchical research team dedicated to showing how our contemporary concepts of digitization and media transformation can elucidate the nonlinear relationship between print and manuscript in earlier periods.

The article is devoted to the participation of foreign public organizations in helping the starving during the famine of 1921–1922 in Kazakhstan. The authors of the article study the contribution of foreign public organizations, such as the American Relief Administration, the Society of Quaker Friends, the Catholic Mission,the Workers International Relief, the Red Cross Society, and others, to helping the starving population of Kazakhstan. As a result, they note that the assistance of foreign organizations consisted of the implementation of food and medical assistance, cooperation with orphanages and medical institutions, and catering. Also, it is identified that humanitarian organizations worked based on special agreements, which prescribed the conditions for ensuring their right to free use of railways, motor, and horse-drawn transport, premises and warehouses, telegraph and telephone communications. The areas of their activity are designated; the features and main results of the work are studied. The authors conclude that foreign humanitarian organizations had made a great contribution to the cause of helping the starving, as a result of which, through joint efforts, it was possible to eliminate the consequences of hunger and save thousands of people from death

In the last two decades, some authors in the philosophy for children movement have theorized that the community of philosophical inquiry can be a form of spiritual practice, of the care of the self, or a wisdom practice (De Marzio, 2009; Gregory, 2009, 2013, 2014;Gregory & Laverty, 2009). Yet, it is unclear if philosophy for children is, by itself, a form of spiritual education, or if it requires some sorts of modification to be one. And, if it is or can be a form of spiritual education, we can interrogate in what ways and to what extent is it one. It is these questions that this text aims to explore. To do so, we will first clarify the meaning of spiritual education through the presentation of two authors who have explicitly written on that topic. The first is Parker J. Palmer, who has developed a perspective on what it means to reclaim the spiritual roots of education, derived from his study and practice of Quaker spirituality. The second is Pierre Hadot, who has explored how the practice of philosophy in Western antiquity was a form of spiritual exercise. From our presentation of these two authors will emerge a particular perspective of what spiritual education means. In the last section of the text we will use this presentation to examine in what ways philosophy for children can be a form of spiritual education and if requires adaptations to be one.

A package of play texts arrives, always an intriguing prospect. First impressions. The publishers: one from Talon, old friends; one from Blizzard, who must now rank as middle-size; and two publishers I haven’t heard of. The authors: I have a nodding acquaintance with Rod Langley (that is, we attended the same party); I have read Carley’s Midnight Madness; I have scarcely heard of the other two. Performance: none are mainstage. Green’s texts come from One Yellow Rabbit in Calgary; those from Carley and Kaufman are associated with Dark Horse, one of Vancouver’s shadowier alternatives; The Dunsmuirs comes from Nanaimo Festival on Vancouver Island. Finally, perhaps most crucially: Langley’s is in a familiar linear, episodic convention; Carley presents odd people in an odd world; Green and Kaufman write in a manner I don’t immediately understand, at least on the page.

Juvenile literature of “domestic abolitionism” seems to be one of the most interesting, yet under-researched branches of American abolitionist literature. Domestic abolitionist authors were usually women, who often published their texts anonymously or assuming pseudonyms. Diverse as they are in terms of genre, these texts share a set of common features. Among these features, according to Deborah De Rosa, is employment of three overarching images: the abolitionist mother-historian, the slave child, the white child. The mother-historian tells stories to foster “a change of hearts” of her young listeners, to inspire their empathy for their enslaved peers, and to engage them in the abolitionist cause. This paper focuses on semi-anonymous Sister Ruth’s Stories, or, Evenings with John Woolman (1865) — a domestic abolitionist text, which seems to have been overlooked in literary studies so far. Sister Ruth’s Stories are constructed as a sequence of evening conversations between Sister Ruth (“Motherhistorian”) and her younger siblings. The topic of these conversations is life of John Woolman (1720 –1772), a famous Quaker minister and proto-abolitionist. Sister Ruth retells children the plot of Woolman’s Journal, describing his personal campaign against slavery. She comments upon this autobiographical text, embellishing it with some additional sentimental scenes, biblical and poetical allusions. In Sister Ruth’s Stories, didacticism of domestic abolitionist literature seems to be counterbalanced by the multi-voice chorus of Ruth’s listeners, with their unfeigned reactions to the stories. As for revision of national history, which is also a substantial part of domestic abolitionist literature, it plays a pivotal role in the book, and yet appears moderate. Published in the last year of the Civil War, Sister Ruth’s Stories seem to embrace both abolitionist and pacifist messages of John Woolman’s Journal.

Abstract Objectives Preliminary evidence, primarily animal and in vitro studies, suggests that oats selectively impact the microbiota. We conducted an in vitro screening trial, using the M-SHIME model®, with fecal inoculum from healthy adult donors with elevated cholesterol levels to determine the effect of 1 serving (40g) of Quaker Old-Fashioned Oats (OFO) containing 1.4g β-Glucan (βG). We also conducted a clinical trial to confirm the in vitro effect of OFO in vivo using fecal material obtained from a similar subject population. Methods In Vitro Trial- Validated M-SHIME model of the entire GI system was used with mucosal beads. Fecal inoculum was donated from 3 healthy adults with elevated cholesterol levels (total cholesterol >5.5 to < 7mmol/L and LDL cholesterol >3.4 to ≤ 4.9mmol/L). Treatment was 40g OFO, containing 1.4g βG. Study design included 2 week (wk) stabilization, 2 wk control, and 3 wk intervention periods. Clinical Trial- Randomized, single-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over study with 38 healthy adults with elevated cholesterol levels within same ranges used in vitro. Treatment was 40g OFO (1.4g βG). Control was 40g Cream of Rice, containing no βG. Study design included 2 wk run-in, 6 wk intervention, and 4 wk wash out periods. Changes in select fecal groups were quantified using qPCR. Results OFO statistically increased lactobacillus in vitro in all colon regions and in vivo compared to control. OFO statistically increased bifidobacterium in vitro in all colon regions compared to control. Increase in bifidobacterium in vivo was observed but did not reach significance. No significant changes in either studies for other bacteria's quantified: Akkermansia Muciniphila, Enterobacteriaceae, Roseburia, Faecalibacterium Prausnitzii, Clostridium Perfringens, and Eubacterium Hallii. Conclusions 1 serving of OFO significantly increased lactobacillus levels in vitro and was replicated in vivo. This is notable because previous in vivo research suggests lactobacillus strains may play a significant role in cholesterol metabolism, and therefore this effect warrants further study in humans. Funding Sources Financial support for this study was provided by PepsiCo, Inc. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of PepsiCo, Inc.

AbstractThis article examines a wave of Chinese poetry sparked by the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. “Quake Poetry” was published online before being re-circulated through digital, print and live media. Multimedia adaptations of one poem are examined to investigate the relationship between the authors of Quake Poetry, the different media platforms, and the people and institutions involved in its proliferation. Media convergence enabled Quake Poetry to fulfil several functions in the aftermath of the earthquake. Most prominently, it served as an emotional outlet for those affected by the quake, while giving its netizen-producers a sense of creative agency as they engaged in participatory cultural production. Members of the contemporary poetry scene cited Quake Poetry as evidence of poetry's ongoing hold over the Chinese national consciousness. Finally, certain poems were appropriated and promoted by China's state-controlled media to propagate a politically expedient image of Chinese unity in the face of tragedy.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 2003.
Advisor: Dr. Brenda L. Cappuccio, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Modern Languages and Linguistics. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Mar. 1, 2004). Includes bibliographical references.

AbstractGisèle Pineau’s Mes quatre femmes: récit (2007) is set in a “geôle obscure de la mémoire,” where different generations of the author’s female relatives are confined. Contrary to the reader’s expectations, however, this memory jail functions as a welcoming, nurturing, womb-like space, as conceptualized by Betty Wilson. Scenes from the past are revisioned and at times, reenacted, as Pineau’s eighteenth-century ancestor Angélique, grandmother Julia, mother Daisy, and aunt Gisèle, after whom Pineau is named, tell stories, all the while imparting knowledge about how they navigated enslavement, colonialism, migration, and patriarchy with various degrees of success during a time when Guadeloupean society and history marginalized them and their experiences. These embodiments of memory remain within her and provide models of behavior for shaping her own identity. In this chapter, I analyze this “geôle obscure de la mémoire”—a veritable site of memory that produces an alternative, oral archive—focusing on the role, dynamic, and storytelling gifts of its inhabitants. I argue that the collective presence of these four women in this atypical spatio-temporal landscape not only haunts their descendant Gisèle in a positive way, but their oral storytelling skills anticipate and inform her own talent for writing.

We analyze the political actions of Theramenes as described by Thucydides (during the coup of 411 BCE) and Xenophon (under the Thirty, 404-403 BCE) to map the features that converged to make him a paradigmatic character in the ancient Greek political imaginary. Xenophon, at least, may have been an eyewitness to the facts reported and both historians have conditioned Theramenes’ portrayal by later authors. We highlight the traits of Theramenes that fostered his identification as either the quintessence of the turncoat or as a role-model for moderate politics. Our goal is also to discuss the implications of his political stances for the configuration of Athenian democracy in the last quarter of the 5th century and how this may still help us consider our own democratic system and its flaws.

AbstractOur pilot project aims to develop a set of text collections and annotation tools to facilitate the creation of datasets (corpora) for the development of AI classification models. These classification models can automatically assess a text’s reading difficulty on the levels described by the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR). The ability to accurately and consistently assess the readability level of texts is crucial to authors and (language) teachers. It allows them to more easily create and discover content that meets the needs of students with different backgrounds and skill levels. Also, in the public sector using plain language in written communication is becoming increasingly important to ensure citizens can easily access and comprehend government information. EDIA already provides automated readability assessment services (available as APIs and an online authoring tool) for the CEFR in English. Support for Dutch, German and Spanish are added as part of this project. Using the infrastructure developed in this project the effort for creating high quality datasets for additional languages is lowered significantly. The tools and datasets are deployed through the European Language Grid. The project is scheduled to be completed in the second quarter of 2022.

Abstract This chapter examines seventeenth-century authors from Spain, England, colonial America, and France who make transatlantic slavery their central focus and who criticize it directly. Their arguments are philosophically rich and, in some cases, astonishingly radical. They are also important for understanding the ways in which slavery and race became linked in the early modern period. One theory that links these two notions is racial natural slavery, the theory that the members of some racial groups are naturally destined for slavery. The chapter examines seventeenth-century attitudes toward this theory in depth. It starts with Alonso de Sandoval, then turns to several Quaker authors from England and North America, before discussing Richard Baxter, Morgan Godwyn, Epifanio de Moirans, Thomas Tryon, Aphra Behn, and Samuel Sewall.

The bestselling book Washington Merry-Go-Round prompted its two anonymous authors, Drew Pearson and Robert S. Allen, to launch a nationally syndicated column in 1932. The urbane and elegant Pearson differed markedly from the brusque and pugnacious Allen, but they shared a belief that the rest of the Washington press corps was often too timid to show how government really worked. Pearson grew up in the Quaker community of Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, where his father taught speech and ran a Chautauqua tent show. After he toured the world as a reporter, Drew Pearson married the daughter of Washington publisher Eleanor “Cissy” Patterson and entered the capital’s high society, making valuable contacts. Unabashedly provocative, Pearson and Allen chose to specialize in unauthorized information and drummed the word “leaks” into Americans’ everyday vocabulary.

Abstract “To govern is absolutely repugnant to the avowed principles of Quakers,” wrote the author of a minor pamphlet in 1764. “To be govern’d is absolutely repugnant to the avowed principles of Pr[esbyteria]ns.” What hope was left, then, for Pennsylvania? Supporters of the Paxton Boys blamed the Conestoga massacres on the Quaker party’s inability or unwillingness to provide adequate defense, an elementary obligation of any government. Critics of the Paxton Boys, by contrast, saw the massacres and the march on Philadelphia as proof of proprietary incompetence and Presbyterian fanaticism. For Benjamin Franklin and his allies the solution was to place Pennsylvania under direct royal government. The stage was set for a political showdown.1

Abstract Thomas Paine (1737–1809), author and revolutionary, was born in Thetford, Norfolk, on 29 January 1737, the first of two children of Joseph Pain (1708–1787), stay-maker and tenant farmer, and Frances Cocke (1697–c .1790), daughter of Thomas Cocke, attorney and town clerk of Thetford. Paine’s only sibling, Elizabeth, born a year later, died aged seven months. Paine’s father was a Quaker and his mother an Anglican, and it is likely that Paine was baptized into the Anglican church, as was his sister. Paine’s father retained his Quaker principles and, though Thomas was confirmed, his father forbade him to learn Latin when he attended the local grammar school at the age of seven.

The article deals with the issues of child mortality and morbidity in Krasnoyarsk in the second quarter of the XX century. The author studies the behavior and effectiveness of measures in the field of children’s health, as well as problems and difficulties in their implementation.

Abstract In this theoretical study, a recently developed inerter-based pendulum vibration absorber (IPVA) is coupled with energy harvesting capabilities and applied to a quarter car model driving on a class C road (ISO 8608). Performance metrics including power harvested, sprung mass acceleration (ride comfort), and road handling are studied while varying the dimensionless pendulum length parameter. It is discovered that P-bifurcation of the probability density function (PDF), from mono-modal to bimodal is responsible for large output power (40% improved) and low sprung mass acceleration (40% improved) when compared with the equivalent linear system. Ride handling is determined to be best as well under bimodal conditions. As such, the authors further develop a Wiener path integration (WPI) coupled with curvature checking for the PDF to predict this P-bifurcation and eliminate the need for exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations for various parameter configurations. Energy flow in the system is also considered.

The article deals with the amphora material from the excavations of 1996–2020 at the Belinskoye settlement in the Eastern Crimea. The purpose of the article is to correct the previously proposed chronological scheme of settlement development in the Ancient and Early Byzantine periods. According to the place of discovery, the fragments of profiled parts of amphorae (1688 fragments) are divided by the author into three groups corresponding to three periods in the history of the settlement. Within each group, the dominant types of amphorae have been identified and the dating of all amphorae fragments has been compared. In the end the paper has confirmed the chronological framework of the first two periods (early/first half 2nd – the middle/third quarter of the 3rd centuries BC and the second quarter 3rd – the end of the first quarter of 4th centuries BC) and established the continuity of the development of the settlement at this stage. The chronological framework of the third period has been significantly adjusted. After the destruction of the settlement at the end of the first quarter of the 4th century AD, new settlers do not appear here until the first half/middle of the 5th century AD. The end of the third period is determined by the boundary of the first and second quarters of the 4th century AD. There is no continuity with the earlier settlement.

Background. The authors conducted a study to analyse the impact of autofrettage practice on the fatigue crack growth in the vicinity of the catalyst entry nozzle in a MK.15 ICI LDPE autoclave reactor. Methods. The authors created 3-D finite element models of the quadrant of the opening. Elastic-plastic analysis was carried out to evaluate the residual stresses from the autofrettage which were then used as an input to the fracture mechanics analysis. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) methodology was then deployed associating a Radial Direction, Quarter-Circular Corner Crack pattern as per API 579/ASME VIII Div.3 for the purpose of calculating the crack tip stress intensity. A number of hypothetical pressure cycles were considered in order to calculate the crack growth rate as per ASME Div.3 (Paris’ Law) both with and without residual stresses from autofrettage analysis. Results. The study results showed the change in the crack behaviour as a result of adding the autofrettage residual stresses onto the model and discussed the implications of such a practice on the design life for autoclave reactors.

В первой четверти ХХI века сотрудничество между Россией и КНР получило дополнительный импульс в виду сложившейся конфронтации между этими странами с одной стороны и Северо атлантическим альянсом с другой. Авторы дают анализ российско - китайских отношений в контексте современных экономических и политических условий, а так же делают ряд предложений по вопросам расширения сотрудничества. In the first quarter of the XXI century, cooperation between Russia and China received an additional impetus in view of the current confrontation between these countries on the one hand and the North Atlantic Alliance on the other. The authors analyze Russian-Chinese relations in the context of modern economic and political conditions and make a number of proposals on expanding cooperation.

The article is devoted to the study of the reasons and prerequisites of the national liberation movement of the Mongols in Outer Mongolia and Hulun-Buir in the first quarter of the XX century. The work is based on the publications of individual Chinese historians, using a number of data from Russian researchers. The author concluded that Chinese scholars viewed the phenomenon of the national liberation movement in Outer Mongolia and Hulun-Buir through the prism of Russia’s implementation of a special geopolitical project known as Zheltorossiya (Yellow Russia).

This paper extends the results for active suspensions obtained by Chalasani in 1986, by evaluating the potential of semiactive suspensions for improving ride performance of passenger vehicles. Numerical simulations are performed on a seven-degree-of-freedom full vehicle model in order to confirm the general trends found for a quarter-car model, used by the authors in an earlier study. This full car model is used not only to study the heave, but also the pitch and roll motions of the vehicle for periodic and discrete road inputs. The behavior of a semi-actively suspended vehicle is evaluated using the hybrid control policy, and compared to the behavior of a passively-suspended vehicle. The results of this study obtained with the periodic inputs indicate that the motion of the quarter-car model is not only a good approximation of the heave motion of a full-vehicle model, but also of the pitch and roll motions since both are very similar to the heave motion. The results obtained with the discrete road input show that, for the example used in this study, the hybrid configuration clearly yields better results than the passive configuration when the objective is to minimize different deflections, angles, and accelerations at the same time.

The reciprocal effect between a quarter-circle corner crack and a non-aligned surface crack of comparable size is addressed in the present study. The significance of understanding the reciprocal effect between the non-aligned parallel cracks is to assist in the evaluation of non-aligned multiple cracks as required in various fitness-for-service codes. For non-aligned parallel cracks, on-site inspection needs to decide whether the cracks should be treated as coalesced or separate multiple cracks. In the existing literature, criteria and standards for the adjustment of multiple non-aligned cracks are very source dependent, and those criteria and standards are often derived from on-site service experience without rigorous and systematic verification. Based on this observation, the authors previously reported on the effect of an embedded parallel crack on an edge crack in 2-D scenarios and, more recently, in 3-D scenarios of a circular corner crack influenced by a parallel surface crack. It may be just as important to evaluate the mutual effect of a quarter-circle corner crack on a non-aligned surface crack as reflected in their stress intensity factors (SIFs). In the present study, the quarter-circle corner crack and the non-aligned surface crack are assumed to be of the same length a2 = a1 = 15mm. While keeping throughout the entire analysis the geometry of the quarter-circle corner crack unchanged, the relative depth of the semi-elliptical surface crack is varied so that b1/a1 = 0.2–1.0. For each particular case a pair of horizontal (H) and vertical (S) separation distances between the two cracks is chosen (H/a2 = 0.4–2 and S/a2 = −0.5–2) and the SIFs along the 3D crack fronts are extracted for both the corner and the surface crack. The reciprocal effect on the SIFs for both cracks are discussed. It is found that the mutual influence between the corner crack and the surface crack are equally important, and each may dominate the decision making based on present criteria and standards in Fitness-for-Service.

Abstract Fitness-for-Service codes require whether non-aligned cracks be treated as coalesced or separate multiple cracks. The authors previously reported on the effect between an corner and an embedded parallel crack in 2-D and in 3-D scenarios subject to tensile loading. Since realistic crack configurations detected using non-destructive methods are generally 3-D in nature, the study of 3-D effect under different loading types is deemed necessary in order to obtain more practical guidance. In this study, we investigate stress intensity factors (SIFs) along the crack front of a quarter-circle corner crack when affected by a semi-elliptic surface crack in a semi-infinite large solid under pure bending. While keeping constant the geometry of the quarter-circle corner crack, the SIFs along its front are studied for a wide range of geometrical configurations of the surface crack by varying its ellipticity b1/a1 = 0.1∼1; the relative crack size of the two parallel cracks a1/a2 = 1/3∼2; the normalized vertical gap, H/a2 = 0.4∼2; and the normalized horizontal gap, S/a2 = −0.5∼2 between the two cracks on using linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The results from this study are collectively significant to the understanding of the correlation between the criteria and standards in Fitness-for-Service community and the consequence of their usage in engineering practice.

The evaluation of the mutual effect of non-aligned multiple cracks is a prerequisite in applying fitness-for-service codes. For non-aligned parallel cracks, during on-site inspection, one needs to decide whether the cracks should be treated as coalesced or separate multiple cracks for Fitness-for-Service. In the existing literature, criteria and standards for the adjustment of multiple nonaligned cracks are very source dependent, and those criteria and standards are often derived from on-site service experience without rigorous and systematic verification. Based on this observation, the authors previously reported on the influence of an embedded crack on an edge crack in 2-D scenarios and, more recently, in 3-D scenarios of the influence of a surface crack on a quarter-circle corner crack. However, realistic crack configurations detected using non-destructive methods are generally 3-D in nature and their influences are mutual. Thus the SIF distribution characteristics along the surface crack is equally important as the SIF distribution of the corner crack when Fitness-for-Service rules are to be applied. Therefore, non-aligned flaws with different configurations and shapes and the SIFs along their crack fronts are deemed necessary in order to obtain more practical guidance in the usage of rules speculated in Fitness-for-Service codes. In this study, the characteristics of the SIF distribution along a semi-elliptic non-aligned surface crack is examined under the influence of a quarter-circle corner crack of various geometries in an infinitely large plate. For any given geometry of a quarter-circle corner crack, a pair of horizontal (H) and vertical (S) separation distances between the two cracks is chosen followed by a detailed analysis of the effect of the quarter-circle corner crack on the 3D SIFs of the surface crack at different ellipticities. The analysis is repeated for various combinations of separation distances S and H. The results from this study are collectively significant to the understanding of the correlation between the criteria and standards in Fitness-for-Service community and the consequence of their usage in engineering practice.

This paper provides information about the amount of remittances received by countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2012. The authors state that this number is nearly the same as in the previous year, resulting in a practically null rate of growth at the regional level. Since the final quarter of 2008, rising unemployment in traditional remittance-sending countries such as the United States, Spain, and Japan, along with the resulting reduction in income of the LAC migrants living in those countries, led to an unprecedented drop in remittances to the region. Remittance flows began to stabilize in 2010, followed by a slight period of recovery in 2011. Nonetheless, the data from 2012 once again show stagnation in growth, with the total value of remittances received by countries in LAC measured at US $61.3 billion.

With the recent adoption by the California Air Resources Board of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and USEPA’s Energy Independence and Security Act, greenhouse gas releases from indirect land use change triggered by crop-based biofuels have taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This paper presents an analysis of these releases for US maize ethanol. Our analysis highlights the key role of market-mediated responses to biofuels mandates. Factoring these into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72%. As a consequence the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is just 800 g CO2 MJ -1y (27 g MJ-1 for 30 years of ethanol production). This figure is a quarter of the one previously published value. However, it is still large enough to eliminate the global warming mitigation benefits of most corn ethanol. Paper is under review with BioScience; available from the authors upon request

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño