Journal articles: 'Race and elections'

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Azari, Julia, and Marc J. Hetherington. "Back to the Future? What the Politics of the Late Nineteenth Century Can Tell Us about the 2016 Election." ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 667, no. 1 (2016): 92–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002716216662604.

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The politics and party system of the late Civil War era are strikingly similar to what we have in the present day. Elections were consistently close; race, culture, immigration, and populism were salient issues; and states almost always voted for the same party in election after election. The states that supported Democrats then, however, mostly support Republicans now, and vice versa. In 1896, though, a new party system began to emerge. In this article, we evaluate bygone elections alongside contemporary ones to assess whether 2016 might be the beginning of something new in American electoral politics. Are national politics likely to follow the familiar pattern of the last four presidential races, or are Americans going to be presented altogether different choices? Our analysis suggests that race and populism are guideposts for potential change in 2016: if the concerns of race continue to define political conflict, the electoral map should change little, but if economic populism eclipses race as it did in 1896, a new political era may be ushered in in America.

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Cizmar, Anne M., and John McTague. "An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections." Forum 16, no. 4 (2018): 515–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2018-0036.

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Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

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Leininger, Arndt, Lukas Rudolph, and Steffen Zittlau. "How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation." Political Science Research and Methods 6, no. 3 (2016): 509–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2016.38.

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Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any stand-alone election. Leveraging as-if-random variation of local election timing in Germany, we estimate the causal effect of concurrent mayoral elections on European election turnout at around 10 percentage points. Exploiting variation in treatment intensity, we show that the magnitude of the concurrency effect is contingent upon district size and the competitiveness of the local race.

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CAMP, RODERIC AI. "The 2012 Presidential Election and What It Reveals about Mexican Voters." Journal of Latin American Studies 45, no. 3 (2013): 451–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022216x1300076x.

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AbstractThe 2012 presidential election in Mexico is significant for many reasons, not least of which is that it returned the Partido Revolucionario Institucional to power after two Partido Acción Nacional administrations. This essay reviews more than 50 surveys taken before and during the election to determine significant patterns among Mexican voters, comparing the most influential traditional and non-traditional demographic variables, as well as other variables such as partisanship and policy issues in this election, with those of the two previous presidential races. It also analyses other influential variables in the 2012 presidential race, including social media and the application of new electoral legislation. It identifies significant differences and similarities among voters today in contrast to the two prior elections, and suggests long-term patterns among Mexican voters which are likely to influence voting behaviour in future elections, ranging from regionalism and gender to partisanship and social media.

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Ellis, William Curtis, Joseph T. Ripberger, and Colin Swearingen. "Public Attention and Head-to-Head Campaign Fundraising: An Examination of U.S. Senate Elections." American Review of Politics 36, no. 1 (2017): 30–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-779x.2017.36.1.30-53.

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Does public attention to political candidates impact fundraising margins in U.S. Senate elections? Applying a novel conceptualization of public attention, we examine U.S. Senate elections from 2004 through 2014 and find that increases in relative public attention relate to increases in head-to-head fundraising margins in open seat races. We conclude by asking whether or not all attention to candidates is "good" attention. Evidence from the 2006 Allen/Webb election suggests that all attention is not "good" attention. This race demonstrates that candidates can supply attention-grabbing action that increases relative public attention while stimulating exceptional losses in relative fundraising margins. Further research must clearly theorize conditions under which supplying public attention-grabbing behavior may damage political campaigns.

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Harris, Allison P. "Voter Response to Salient Judicial Decisions in Retention Elections." Law & Social Inquiry 44, no. 1 (2019): 170–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/lsi.2018.21.

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Even at their most salient, judicial retention elections do not increase turnout on Election Day. However, those who vote often participate in judicial retention races at higher levels than usual following salient judicial decisions. I use a series of difference-in-differences analyses to estimate the effect of the Iowa Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage on the subsequent retention races. I find that retention race participation was higher than we would have otherwise expected after the decision. Scholars often cite the infrequence with which justices are removed as evidence of justices’ relative independence from voters in retention elections, but the overwhelming retention of these justices does not mean they are independent from voters. Increases in the number of ballots cast in these races is perhaps more important than increases in negative votes when it comes to judicial independence, because each vote is an evaluation of the justices, whether positive or negative.

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Martin, James E. "Employee Characteristics and Representation Election Outcomes." ILR Review 38, no. 3 (1985): 365–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/001979398503800304.

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This article proposes and tests a model to predict the outcome of representation elections contested by trade union and employee association types of labor organizations in the public sector. The author hypothesizes that the winners of such elections can be predicted from variables measuring individual characteristics of the potential employee voters, such as gender, race, age, seniority, and job level. Application of the model to data on five elections in Michigan predicts four correctly. Qualitative data offers further support for the model, suggesting that employee characteristics and also the length and nature of the election campaigns helped determine the outcome of the elections.

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Campbell, James E. "Editor's Introduction: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections." PS: Political Science & Politics 41, no. 04 (2008): 679–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096508081006.

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This symposium presents 10 articles forecasting the 2008 U.S. national elections. The core of this collection is the seven presidential-vote forecasting models that were presented in this space before the 2004 election. Added to that group are one additional presidential forecasting model, one state-level elections forecasting model, and one model forecasting the relationship between congressional votes and seats won by the parties. Some of the articles that are focused on the presidential race have also taken the opportunity to forecast the congressional elections as well.

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Davidson, Adrienne M., R. Michael McGregor, and Myer Siemiatycky. "Gender, Race and Political Ambition: The Case of Ontario School Board Elections." Canadian Journal of Political Science 53, no. 2 (2020): 461–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423919001057.

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AbstractThe political underrepresentation of women and racial minorities in Canadian politics is well documented. One political arena that has yet to be examined in this respect, however, is school boards. Using data from a candidate survey conducted during the course of the 2018 Ontario school board elections, as well as demographic data collected on the entire population of school board candidates, we explore the unique characteristics of school board elections. The research note begins by describing the gender and racial composition of candidates and trustees in Canada's most populous province. It then considers the ways in which school board elections may serve as a launchpad to higher office for either of these two traditionally underrepresented groups, as we explore the features of progressive political ambition, recruitment into school board campaigns and the relative electoral success of racialized candidates and women in this local office. While women do very well in school board elections, they are significantly less likely than their male counterparts to have the desire to move up to provincial or federal politics. Meanwhile, racialized candidates contest school board election in significant numbers and report similar levels of progressive ambition relative to their white counterparts, but they fare exceptionally poorly in school board elections.

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Usman, Shazia. "Where are the women candidates during elections? A Fiji media case study." Pacific Journalism Review 19, no. 1 (2013): 148. http://dx.doi.org/10.24135/pjr.v19i1.243.

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This article examines the visibility of female election candidates, and females in general, in The Fiji Times and Fiji Sun during the 2006 general election. After analysing the data collected quantitatively, it can be concluded that female election candidates and females in general were virtually invisible in both the newspapers during the selected time period. The few articles published on or quoting women were mostly clichéd, lacked critical analysis and stereotyped them. An unexpected but equally important finding of the research sheds some light on the why of female election candidates’ invisibility in the dailies during election. The data shows the extensive prominence Fiji’s print media gave to race and coup-related issues as elections drew near, crowding out reportage of other major issues. Because of the fixation on race, the media overlooked many important issues, such as the fact that in all elections since independence, women have only managed to secure fewer than 12 percent of parliamentary seats, even though they make-up nearly half of the total population of the country. Such debates are rarely raised in the media.

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Ondercin, Heather L. "Is it a Chasm? Is it a Canyon? No, it is the Gender Gap." Forum 16, no. 4 (2018): 611–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2018-0040.

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Abstract Many speculated that we would observe a gender gap in vote choice of historic proportions in the 2018 midterm elections. However, the 2018 gender gap was similar to gender gaps in previous elections. I argue that the gender gap is not about a specific candidate or election but is driven by gender differences in partisan attachments. Variation in the gender gap in Senate and gubernatorial elections highlight that the gender gap does not advantage a particular candidate or party and that women candidates do not increase the size of the gender gap. Race and class intersect with gender to shape the partisan attachments and vote choice of men and women. Finally, while the candidates and events surrounding the 2018 election likely did not impact the gender gap in 2018, I discuss how the 2018 election will shape the gender gap in future elections.

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Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Jee-Kwang Park. "Elections, Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment." British Journal of Political Science 44, no. 1 (2012): 83–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000712341200049x.

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This article argues that the policy uncertainty generated by elections encourages private actors to delay investments that entail high costs of reversal, creating pre-election declines in the associated sectors. Moreover, this incentive depends on the competitiveness of the race and the policy differences between the major parties/candidates. These arguments are tested using new survey and housing market data from the United States. The survey analysis assesses whether respondents’ perceptions of presidential candidates’ policy differences increased the likelihood that they would delay certain purchases and actions. The housing market analysis examines whether elections are associated with a pre-election decline in economic activity, and whether any such decline depends on electoral competitiveness. The results support the predictions and cannot be explained by existing theories.

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Gerber, Alan, Mitchell Hoffman, John Morgan, and Collin Raymond. "One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 12, no. 3 (2020): 287–325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.20180574.

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During the 2010 gubernatorial elections, we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close or not-close race. Subjects update their beliefs in response to polls, but overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, turnout is unaffected by beliefs about election closeness. A follow-up RCT, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and turnout. We caveat that the strength of our evidence depends on assumptions regarding our treatments’ impacts on beliefs. (JEL C93, D72)

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Medenica, Vladimir E., and Matthew Fowler. "The Intersectional Effects of Diverse Elections on Validated Turnout in the 2018 Midterm Elections." Political Research Quarterly 73, no. 4 (2020): 988–1003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912920945781.

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The 2018 midterm elections in the United States were unprecedented in their gender and racial diversity. Voters across the country, especially younger voters, elected the most diverse U.S. Congress in history. Despite increased electoral diversity along lines of gender, race, and the intersections of both, extant literature has remained siloed, focusing on the effect of either gender or race on turnout but rarely examining both in relation to one another. Using a novel data set of racially diverse young adults that includes demographic information for congressional candidates and vote-validated data, this study investigates how the intersection of race and gender influence voter turnout across diverse electoral contexts. Our study provides important insights for both unpacking the 2018 elections and more generally understanding how race and gender interact to influence youth voter turnout as candidate profiles and electoral contexts continue to diversify.

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Young, Cheryl D., and Robert Stein. "A Federalist Explanation of Municipal Elections." American Review of Politics 13 (July 1, 1992): 211–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.1992.13.0.211-229.

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This paper suggests that individual voting behavior in municipal elections is most closely associated with voter concern with municipal economic development and basic city services. Redistributive issues and race are, as such, irrelevant in local elections. Candidates for local office should, therefore, avoid such issues and associate themselves with economic growth potential and better provision of services. To test this fiscal federal assertion, a panel survey of registered voters in Houston, Texas, was conducted during the city’s 1985 mayoral election. The findings support the assertion that municipal electoral politics are limited by the very policies with which municipal governments are charged.

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Agranov, Marina. "Flip-Flopping, Primary Visibility, and the Selection of Candidates." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 8, no. 2 (2016): 61–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130036.

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We present an incomplete information model of two-stage elections in which candidates can choose different platforms in primaries and general elections. Voters do not directly observe the chosen platforms, but infer the candidates' ideologies from observing candidates' campaigns. The ability of voters to detect candidates' types depends on the visibility of the race. This model captures two patterns: the post-primary moderation effect, in which candidates pander to the party base during the primary and shift to the center in the general election; and the divisive-primary effect, which refers to the detrimental effect of hard-fought primaries on a party's general-election prospects. (JEL D11, D72, D83)

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Loewen, Peter John, and Frédérick Bastien. "(In)Significant Elections? Federal By-elections in Canada, 1963–2008." Canadian Journal of Political Science 43, no. 1 (2010): 87–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000842390999076x.

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Abstract. Despite the development of electoral studies in Canada, by-elections have received little attention from researchers. We believe that these are important political events. This research note examines the 121 federal by-elections held between general elections from 1963 to 2008. Our analysis indicates that turnout in by-elections is driven by the larger societal determinants of turnout and not the characteristics of each race. We also find that the support of the government party in a by-election is affected by changes in national opinion towards the government, but only in the third-party system. We find that minor parties and independent candidates perform better in by-elections than in general elections. And we find no difference in the re-election rates of by-election winners and those who enter parliament through general elections.Résumé. Malgré le développement des études électorales au Canada, les élections partielles ont reçu très peu d'attention de la part des chercheurs. Nous croyons qu'il s'agit pourtant d'événements importants dans la vie politique canadienne. Cette note de recherche examine les 121 élections partielles fédérales survenues entre les élections générales de 1963 à 2008. Notre analyse indique que le taux de participation aux élections partielles est davantage influencé par des déterminants sociétaux que par des caractéristiques propres à chacune. Nous constatons aussi que les fluctuations de l'opinion publique canadienne à l'égard du gouvernement influençaient la performance du parti gouvernemental lors des élections partielles avant le réalignement partisan de 1993, mais que ce n'est plus le cas dans le système partisan actuel. Nous observons également que les petits partis et les candidats indépendants enregistrent de meilleures performances lors des élections partielles et qu'il n'y a pas, aux élections générales qui suivent, de différence notable entre le taux de réélection des gagnants aux élections partielles et celui des autres députés sortants.

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Domínguez, Jorge I. "The Democratic Claims of Communist Regime Leaders." Communist and Post-Communist Studies 54, no. 1-2 (2021): 45–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/j.postcomstud.2021.54.1-2.45.

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Communist authoritarian regimes born of revolution claim that their rule is democratic, sponsoring elections that, even if uncompetitive, may supplement their claims to rule if the outcome rewards the most-voted with high posts and sidelines the lower-voted. In 2018, Cuba’s new president argued that the 2018 election shaped the new National Assembly and Council of State democratically: garnering electoral support and better inclusiveness by gender, race, and age. Indeed, across the 2003, 2013, and 2018 elections, the Council became demographically inclusive, matching or exceeding its East Asian communist regime peers. However, in Cuba as in Vietnam, election vote shares had little effect on Council membership; the most-voted were not rewarded, the lower-voted were not sidelined.

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Vogl, Tom S. "Race and the politics of close elections." Journal of Public Economics 109 (January 2014): 101–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.11.004.

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Schubert, Gunter. "No Winds of Change: Taiwan's 2012 National Elections and the Post-Election Fallout." Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 41, no. 3 (2012): 143–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/186810261204100307.

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Taiwan held its first combined national elections on 14 January 2012. Though the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the largest opposition party, fared much better in the Legislative Yuan elections than it did in 2008, DPP presidential contender Tsai Ying-wen's (Cai Yingwen) clear defeat at the hands of the Kuomintang (KMT, Guomindang) incumbent, Ma Ying-jeou (Ma Yingjiu), in the presidential race came as a surprise. The article examines the election campaigns of both Tsai and Ma, summarizes the election results, and analyses the reasons why the DPP failed to retake the presidency. It then discusses the postelection debate within the DPP on the future of its China policy and ponders what can be expected from the second Ma administration.

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Aldashev, Gani, and Giovanni Mastrobuoni. "Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition." Political Science Research and Methods 7, no. 2 (2016): 289–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2016.36.

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In close elections, a sufficiently high share of invalid ballots—if driven by voter mistakes or electoral fraud—can jeopardize the electoral outcome. We study how the closeness of electoral race relates to the share of invalid ballots, under the traditional paper-ballot hand-counted voting technology. Using a large micro-level data set from the Italian parliamentary elections in 1994–2001, we find a strong robust negative relationship between the margin of victory of the leading candidate over the nearest rival and the share of invalid ballots. We argue that this relationship is not driven by voter mistakes, protest, or electoral fraud. The explanation that garners most support is that of rational allocation of effort by election officers and party representatives, with higher rates ofdetectionof invalid ballots in close elections.

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Mylonas, Yiannis, and Matina Noutsou. "Interpolations of class, “race”, and politics." Nordicom Review 42, s3 (2021): 56–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/nor-2021-0026.

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Abstract This article focuses on the ways in which the Danish liberal mainstream press covered events related to the so-called Greek crisis. In particular, we examine the coverage of the different Greek national elections that took place during the Greek crisis years (2010–2019) by Jyllands-Posten (JP), a popular Danish daily newspaper. Qualitative content analysis is deployed to study a corpus of 70 news and editorial articles published by JP on the aforementioned topic. Our analysis highlights the existence of three main interrelated themes in JP's constructions of the Greek elections: a moralist, a culturalist, and a technocratic/anti-leftist theme. These themes are theorised through the use of relevant theory on class cultures and politics today.

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McDermott, Monika L. "Race and Gender Cues in Low-Information Elections." Political Research Quarterly 51, no. 4 (1998): 895. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/449110.

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Mcdermott, Monika L. "Race and Gender Cues in Low-Information Elections." Political Research Quarterly 51, no. 4 (1998): 895–918. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106591299805100403.

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Vanderleeuw, James Martin, and Baodong Paul Liu. "Racial Polarization or Biracial Coalition? An Empirical Analysis of the Electoral Coalition of Winning Candidates in Urban Elections." American Review of Politics 27 (January 1, 2007): 319–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2007.27.0.319-344.

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Inspired by deracialization and black threat theories, this research uses the racial context of American cities to explain winning electoral coalitions in urban elections. A total of 137 municipal elections in New Orleans and Memphis between 1969 and 2003 are examined. The multiple regression results confirm the previous findings that black candidates are more likely than white candidates to win urban elections based on racial bloc voting, urban elections are more likely to be racially polarized in mayoral races than in city-council contests, and the competitiveness of elections reflected by the size of candidate pool shapes the needs for winning candidates to build biracial elections. The most important finding, however, is a nonlinear, half U-shaped relationship between racial polarization and the electorate’s racial makeup. This suggests that the deracialization strategy designed to reduce the negative effect of race in urban electoral campaigns is especially important when the electorate is heavily black. In this electoral setting, a substantial level of electoral support from voters of both racial groups is necessary for victory.

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Nesterov, Fedor. "One Man Show: TV and Russian Internet Observation Diary of Russian Presidential Elections 2018." American Behavioral Scientist 63, no. 7 (2018): 1029–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002764218814355.

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Three weeks before the 2018 Russian Presidential elections, Fedor Nesterov, media manager, analyst, and journalist compiled a journal focusing on the pre-election race on local electronic media, TV, and the Internet. Most of these media are controlled in direct or hidden ways by the government, and they present candidates in a biased manner, giving preference to one particular candidate. This diary offers insights from a journalist on how public opinion is shaped in Russia by mass media.

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Trumm, Siim, and Laura Sudulich. "What does it take to make it to the polling station? The effects of campaign activities on electoral participation." Party Politics 24, no. 2 (2016): 168–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354068816647209.

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This study explores the extent to which campaign visibility facilitates electoral participation, using data from first- and second-order elections in Britain. Our contribution to the existing literature is threefold. First, we assess whether the effects of campaign effort are conditioned by marginality, finding that campaign mobilization gets out the vote regardless of the competitiveness of the race. Second, we look at the relative ability of different campaign activities to stimulate turnout, detecting significant differences. Third, we show that the effects of campaign effort on electoral participation are rather similar in first- and second-order elections. These findings suggest that a greater level of electoral information provided by campaign activities does reduce the cost of voting. Local campaigns play a key role in bringing voters to the polls in marginal and non-marginal races and at general elections as much as at second-order elections.

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Major, Ann Marie. "“Problematic” Situations in Press Coverage of the 1988 U.S. and French Elections." Journalism Quarterly 69, no. 3 (1992): 600–611. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/107769909206900308.

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This study uses newspapers and magazines to find some support for Alex Edelstein's theory of the problematic approach to media content. Although 55% of the 1988 U.S. election issues were defined as problematic — especially in terms of individual or social losses of value — about half the stories were not presented in any problem context. Three-fourths of the stories from the French sample presented stories in a problem context. About one-fourth of the stories from both U.S. and French samples emphasized the horse race aspect of elections.

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Junn, Jane, and Natalie Masuoka. "The Gender Gap Is a Race Gap: Women Voters in US Presidential Elections." Perspectives on Politics 18, no. 4 (2019): 1135–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592719003876.

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Scholarship on women voters in the United States has focused on the gender gap, showing that, since the 1980s, women are more likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates than men. The persistence of the gender gap has nurtured the conclusion that women are Democrats. This article presents evidence upending that conventional wisdom. It analyzes data from the American National Election Study to demonstrate that white women are the only group of female voters who support Republican Party candidates for president. They have done so by a majority in all but 2 of the last 18 elections. The relevance of race for partisan choice among women voters is estimated with data collected in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and the significance of being white is identified after accounting for political party identification and other predictors.

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McThomas, Mary, and Robert J. Buchanan. "President Obama and Gay Rights: The 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 03 (2012): 442–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000315.

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AbstractWe examine the role and potential impact of gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) voters in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We look at trend data from 1990 to 2010 to assess the fluctuations in support for the Democratic Party by GLB voters, specifically a substantial decrease in support during the 2010 midterm elections. We use data from the 2008 election to assess the estimated contribution the GLB vote made toward President Obama's margin of victory in key battleground states. Looking at the Obama administration's record on gay rights, specifically the failure to pass the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), we argue that the Democratic Party could be held accountable in the 2012 election for their failure to provide protection from employment discrimination based on sexual orientation. Potentially the 2012 election will be closer than the 2008 race, highlighting the importance of the GLB vote to President Obama's reelection in key states. We argue that if President Obama incorporates strong support for ENDA into his reelection platform, the Democratic Party has the chance to recapture the GLB votes it lost in 2010 and maintain enough of the 2008 electoral votes that led to President Obama's victory.

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Farrier, Jasmine. "All Politics is Still Local: McConnell vs. Lunsford in the 2008 Kentucky Senate Race." American Review of Politics 30 (July 1, 2009): 155–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2009.30.0.155-172.

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The political drama of the 2008 re-election of Mitch McConnell was not his eventual fifth victory, which was predictable, but the fact that he won by only six percent of the vote. Senator McConnell spent over $20 million (including $2 million in final-stretch loans) to defend his seat against a self-financed businessman who spent $11 million and had never held an elected post. The fact that this race was the second most expensive in the country in 2008 suggests that the seat was in real danger for the first time in decades and McConnell knew it (see Jacobson 1980, 1985). His first two elections in 1984 and 1990 were very close, but as he ascended in statewide and national prominence his next two elections in 1996 and 2002 were landslides. While 2008 had special twists; this type of sudden vulnerability was not unique to Senator McConnell. In fact, this “bumpy-smooth-bumpy” electoral trajectory happens in many congressional careers. Paul Herrnson writes, “although incumbents generally derive tremendous advantages from the strategic environment, the political setting in a given year can pose obstacles for some, resulting in significant numbers losing their seats”(2004, 29).

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MEREDITH, MARC. "Exploiting Friends-and-Neighbors to Estimate Coattail Effects." American Political Science Review 107, no. 4 (2013): 742–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055413000439.

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Federalist democracies often hold concurrent elections for multiple offices. A potential consequence of simultaneously voting for multiple offices that vary with respect to scope and scale is that the personal appeal of candidates in a high-profile race may affect electoral outcomes in less salient races. In this article I estimate the magnitude of such coattail effects from governors onto other concurrently elected statewide executive officers using a unique dataset of county election returns for all statewide executive office elections in the United States from 1987 to 2010. I exploit the disproportionate support that candidates receive from geographically proximate voters, which is often referred to as the friends-and-neighbors vote, to isolate variation in the personal appeal of candidates. I find that a one-percentage-point increase in the personal vote received by a gubernatorial candidate increases the vote share of their party's secretary of state and attorney general candidates by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, personal votes for a secretary of state or attorney general candidate have no effect on the performance of their party's gubernatorial candidate or other down-ballot candidates.

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Palca, Joseph. "US mid-term elections: Power jockeys in new race." Nature 324, no. 6093 (1986): 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/324098a0.

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Khamis, Sahar, and Abd El-Basit Ahmed Hashem Mahmoud. "Facebooking the Egyptian elections: Framing the 2012 presidential race." Journal of Arab & Muslim Media Research 6, no. 2 (2013): 133–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1386/jammr.6.2-3.133_1.

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Vanderleeuw, James M., and Christopher L. Markwood. "INCUMBENCY AND RUNOFF ELECTIONS: RACE AS A LIMITING FACTOR." Southeastern Political Review 24, no. 3 (2008): 581–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.1996.tb00096.x.

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Deufel, B. J., and O. Kedar. "Race And Turnout In U.S. Elections Exposing Hidden Effects." Public Opinion Quarterly 74, no. 2 (2010): 286–318. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfq017.

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TRAVKINA, Natalia. "Presidential Campaign 2020 in the United States: Factors of Growing Uncertainty." Perspectives and prospects. E-journal, no. 3 (23) (2020): 32–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.32726/2411-3417-2020-3-32-51.

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The article analyzes the prospects for the 2020 presidential campaign after primary elections, which ended with the victory of incumbent President D. Trump in the Republican Party and former Vice-President J. Biden in the Democratic Party. A powerful external factor influencing the usual course of the presidential race has been the COVID-19 pandemic that hit the United States, which is the main element of the growing uncertainty about the possible outcome of the presidential election. An important consequence of the coronavirus pandemic was the gradual slide of the American economy into crisis as early as in the first quarter of this year. Economic turmoil in a year of presidential elections has been one of the most reliable indicators for upcoming change in the White House at least since 1920.

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Bonneau, Chris W. "What Price Justice(s)? Understanding Campaign Spending in State Supreme Court Elections." State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5, no. 2 (2005): 107–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/153244000500500201.

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Among the least-researched American elections are those for seats on the states' supreme courts, arguably some of the most important political positions in the states. We know not only that campaign spending in these races has increased sharply in the past 20 years but also that there is great variation in spending among them. What factors cause campaign spending to vary among races for the states' highest courts? And what can an understanding of campaign spending in these races tell us about campaign spending for other offices? I use data from 281 state supreme court races in 21 states from 1990 to 2000 to answer these questions. I find that state supreme court campaign spending is driven by the characteristics of the race, institutional arrangements, and the electoral and state supreme court context.

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Spoon, Jae-Jae, and Karleen Jones West. "Small versus Statewide Parties: How Subnational Contestation and Decentralisation Influence Presidential Elections in Europe and Latin America." Political Studies Review 18, no. 1 (2020): 145–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1478929919862432.

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Shugart and Carey were among the first scholars to recognise that there is a relationship between regional and local – or subnational – electoral forces and the presidential race. Yet because of a lack of subnational electoral data, this relationship has largely remained unexplored. We elaborate on Shugart and Carey’s theory to argue that the effects of decentralisation are conditional on a party’s presence in subnational elections for determining when and why parties enter the presidential race. Using an original dataset of subnational electoral results and presidential strategies in 17 countries in Europe and Latin America from 1990 to 2013, we find that parties with a small presence in subnational elections are more likely to compete for the presidency under more extensive decentralisation. Statewide parties, however, contest presidential elections regardless of level of decentralisation. These findings have important implications for understanding Shugart and Carey’s expectation that subnational contestation influences national party systems, presidential elections and democratic representation more generally.

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Yakovleva, N. M. "Portugal on the eve of presidential elections." Cuadernos Iberoamericanos 8, no. 3 (2021): 89–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.46272/2409-3416-2020-8-3-89-100.

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In 2015, Portugal entered a new political cycle with the main actors being the left-wing parties under the auspices of the Socialist Party and its leader Antonio Costa who took over as prime minister. The author analyzes the results of the socialist government activities carried out with the parliamentary support of the left. The author also studies the electoral process of 2017-2019, the dynamics of strengthening the position of the Socialist Party, and significance of the results of elections to national authorities. The trajectory of the country’s membership in the European Union, the history of the results of the European Parliament elections, including the 2019 elections, and the positions of the main political parties are analyzed. In connection with force majeure circumstances arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation in the healthcare system was also studied and a program of the authorities to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection is presented in the article. The author touches upon the economic consequences of the pandemic, especially on those industries that will be most affected – tourism in particular. The article contains a brief forecast of the alignment of political forces on the eve of the presidential elections in 2021. The key is the idea that the pandemic will make possible adjustments in terms of the image and ratings of the country’s leaders and other participants in the election race. While presidential election results are usually a foregone conclusion in the event that a current head of state runs for a second term (as it is shown in the brief historical overview leading up to the article), the prime minister’s growing leadership can make adjustments to the final outcomes.

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Törnberg, Anton, and Petter Törnberg. "“WAKE-UP CALL FOR THE WHITE RACE”: HOW STORMFRONT FRAMED THE ELECTIONS OF OBAMA AND TRUMP." Mobilization: An International Quarterly 26, no. 3 (2021): 285–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.17813/1086-671x-26-3-285.

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We investigate how users on a prominent forum for white supremacists interpreted and framed two seminal events for the far-right in the U.S., the elections of Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. These cases precipitated dramatic shifts in the far-right alliance and conflict structure. We combine computational methods and qualitative analysis on a corpus of over ten million posts on Stormfront.org to show how movement actors framed institutional changes and constructed them as opportunities for action. We highlight grassroots framing, the collective and contested bottom-up processes through which external events are framed and reframed by online activists and thus shaped into opportunities for action. Our research demonstrates how users shifted from framing Obama’s election as a threat, to framing it as a “victory in disguise,” creating new opportunities for political action through extraparliamentary methods. Similarly, users framed Trump's election as creating possibilities for radical change through the established political system.

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Cluverius, John, and Joshua J. Dyck. "Deconstructing Popular Mythologies about Millennials and Party Identification." Forum 17, no. 2 (2019): 271–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2019-0017.

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Abstract Americans born before 1980, called Millennials, are repeatedly treated as a singular voting bloc, but much like the Baby Boomers, have been socialized across a series of very different elections. We develop a theory of millennial political socialization that argues that older Millennials are more tied to the Democratic party and more liberal than their younger counterparts. We use the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and an original survey of 1274 Americans conducted before the 2016 elections to test this theory. We find some support for our theory; in addition, we find that younger Millennials are socialized by issues of identity politics and culture – specifically on issues of immigration and the role of race in society. This implies a generation that largely favors Democrats, but whose Republicans are more culturally conservative than middle aged Republican voters.

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Rocca, Michael S., and Jared W. Clay. "Allocating Unlimited Money: What Explains Super PAC Spending in Congressional Elections?" Forum 19, no. 2 (2021): 229–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0016.

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Abstract How do Super PACs allocate their resources? The question is both timely and relevant, particularly as we reflect on the ten-year anniversary of the Citizens United ruling. Super PACs now outspend – sometimes by huge margins, as in the 2016 presidential election – all other groups’ independent expenditures including those of parties, unions, and 501(c) organizations. The issue is especially important in congressional politics, where Super PACs have an opportunity to shape the institution every two years through congressional elections. Utilizing outside spending data from the Center for Responsive Politics, we analyze four U.S. House election cycles since the Supreme Court’s landmark 2010 Citizens United ruling (2012–2018). The likelihood that Super PACs invest in a race is strongly determined by the electoral context, even after controlling for the legislative influence of the incumbent member of Congress.

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Tate, Katherine. "Black Political Participation in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections." American Political Science Review 85, no. 4 (1991): 1159–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1963940.

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Using data from a longitudinal telephone study of voting-eligible black Americans I explore the political context of black voter turnout in the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections and reexamine the attitudinal and demographic variables associated with black electoral participation. Jesse Jackson supporters were more likely to vote in the 1984 presidential election, while black opposition to Reagan was also linked to black voter turnout in 1984. Nonetheless, blacks who preferred Jackson to other primary contenders in the 1988 nominating contest were less likely to vote in the presidential election. Finally, while education, political interest, partisanship, and age were generally associated with black voter participation, race identification had a less consistent effect. Instead, church membership and involvement in black political organizations serve as alternative, community-based resources that promote black participation. This research underscores the importance of both political context and group-based political resources in stimulating the black vote.

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Zeedan, Rami. "The 2016 US Presidential Elections: What Went Wrong in Pre-Election Polls? Demographics Help to Explain." J 2, no. 1 (2019): 84–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/j2010007.

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This study examined the accuracy of the various forecasting methods of the 2016 US Presidential Elections. The findings revealed a high accuracy in predicting the popular vote. However, this is most suitable in an electoral system which is not divided into constituencies. Instead, due to the Electoral College method used in the US elections, forecasting should focus on predicting the winner in every state separately. Nevertheless, miss-predicted results in only a few states led to false forecasting of the elected president in 2016. The current methods proved less accurate in predicting the vote in states that are less urbanized and with less diverse society regarding race, ethnicity, and religion. The most challenging was predicting the vote of people who are White, Protestant Christians, and highly religious. In order to improve pre-election polls, this study suggests a few changes to the current methods, mainly to adopt the “Cleavage Sampling” method that can better predict the expected turnout of specific social groups, thus leading to higher accuracy of pre-election polling.

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Ivanyuk, Oleh, and Yana Martianova. "ELECTIONS TO THE KYIV CITY COUNCIL IN 1906: BASED ON PERIODICALS." Kyiv Historical Studies, no. 1 (2020): 67–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.28925/2524-0757.2020.1.9.

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The article is devoted to the elections to the Kyiv City Council in 1906, which unfolded on the backdrop of revolutionary events and were characterized by a fierce struggle between two political projects — the “New Duma” and “Old Duma” parties. Particular attention is paid to the main stages of elections’ conduct and violation of electoral law by the race participants. On the background of the revolutionary events, the citizens formed a request for “new faces” and fundamental changes in management methods. The expression of dreams of the residents of Kyiv was the “New Duma Party”, which positioned itself as a team of executives who understand the needs of the city. During the elections, significant violations of the current legislation were registered that did not allow to form the fully the all members of the Kyiv City Council. In the course of the research, it is found that the most informative materials, in terms of Kyiv City Council elections, were the materials of the newspapers “Gromadska Dumka” and “Kievlianin”. These periodicals, while supporting the ideologically opposed political forces, covered the race in detail. Newspapers’ editorial staff paid particular attention to sensational materials related to electoral law violations, which were of most interest to readers. If the “Gromadska Dumka” tried to cover the race objectively, “Kievlianin” published not only facts, but also insults and campaign materials, retranslating the ideologues of Russian nationalists.

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Overby, L. Marvin, and Robert D. Brown. "Race, Redistricting, and Re-Election: The Fate of White Incumbent Democrats in the 1994 Congressional Elections." American Review of Politics 23 (January 1, 2003): 337–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2002.23.0.337-353.

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Critics of racially-motivated congressional redistricting have argued that the practice has numerous negative consequences. Following the Republican victories in the 1994 midterm elections, many critics concluded that the creation of “majority-minority” districts helped the GOP win control of the House of Representatives. In this article we subject that claim to empirical scrutiny. Using a multivariate regression model we examine the electoral fates of white Democrats who had survived the 1992 election. After controlling for other political and personal factors, changes in the racial composition of their districts had little negative impact on these members’ 1994 electoral margins. Moreover, we find that in the South, white Democrats who lost African-American constituents actually fared better than those who had gained them. These results indicate that the impacts of racially-based redistricting are more complicated than many have supposed.

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Bernhardt, Dan, Peter Buisseret, and Sinem Hidir. "The Race to the Base." American Economic Review 110, no. 3 (2020): 922–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181606.

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We study multi-district legislative elections between two office-seeking parties when one party has an initial valence advantage that may shift and even reverse during the campaign; and, each party cares not only about winning a majority, but also about its share of seats. When the initial imbalance favoring one party is small, each party targets the median voter. For moderate imbalances, the advantaged party maintains the centre-ground, but the disadvantaged party retreats to target its core supporters; and for large imbalances, the advantaged party advances toward its opponent, raiding its moderate supporters in pursuit of an outsized majority. (JEL D72)

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Horst, Patrick. "Die Wahl zur Hamburgischen Bürgerschaft vom 23 . Februar 2020: SPD-Bürgermeister behauptet sich gegen Grünen-Herausforderin und setzt rot-grüne Koalition fort." Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 51, no. 3 (2020): 576–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2020-3-576.

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The starting position before the elections to the Hamburg parliament was favorable for the governing red-green coalition . The citizens of Hamburg expected an exciting neck-and-neck race between SPD Mayor Peter Tschentscher and his Green challenger Katharina Fegebank, who passionately advocated a turnaround in climate and mobility policies . The duel of the Red-Green top politicians in Hamburg caused the opposition to disappear . The more intensively the issues were discussed during the election campaign, the more the mayor was able to distance himself from his challenger as a guarantor of “basic city functions” . On the election evening, the SPD felt itself as winner - with a score of 39 .2 percent and a 15-point lead over the Greens, and vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Tschentscher’s predecessor in the office of Hamburg’s mayor, re-emerged as the SPD’s candidate for chancellor . But the election’s real winner was the Green party . Compared to the 2015 election, they managed not only to double their vote share, but to also achieve their second-best result in a German state election . In the end, the SPD was nevertheless largely able to prevail over the Greens in the coalition negotiations owed to their campaign finish and the pressure to reach an agreement that ensued from the coronavirus crisis, which set in in mid-March .

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Branton, Regina P. "The Importance of Race and Ethnicity in Congressional Primary Elections." Political Research Quarterly 62, no. 3 (2008): 459–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912908319606.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Race and elections'

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