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Relevant bibliographies by topics / Random information

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Academic literature on the topic 'Random information'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 3 June 2025

Last updated: 19 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Random information"

1

Telksnys, Laimutis, and Jonas Kaukėnas. "Recognition of Short-Time Specific Random Elements in Random Sequences." Informatica 22, no. 2 (2011): 279–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/informatica.2011.327.

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Zakaria, Abdul Alif, and Norli Anida Abdullah. "Secure Information Hiding Based on Random Similar Bit Mapping." International Journal of Machine Learning and Computing 10, no. 4 (2020): 568–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.18178/ijmlc.2020.10.4.974.

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Tsairidis, Ch, K. Ferentinos, and T. Papaioannou. "Information and random censoring." Information Sciences 92, no. 1-4 (1996): 159–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0020-0255(96)00055-2.

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Lu, Jay. "Random Choice and Private Information." Econometrica 84, no. 6 (2016): 1983–2027. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ecta12821.

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Herve, T., J. M. Dolmazon, and J. Demongeot. "Random field and neural information." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 87, no. 2 (1990): 806–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.87.2.806.

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Goloboff, Pablo A. "RANDOM DATA, HOMOPLASY AND INFORMATION." Cladistics 7, no. 4 (1991): 395–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1096-0031.1991.tb00046.x.

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Sumathi, S., and R. Rajesh. "Feature-Optimized Random Forest Model for Wildfire Prediction using Weather Information." Indian Journal Of Science And Technology 18, no. 19 (2025): 1530–37. https://doi.org/10.17485/ijst/v18i19.442.

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Objectives: Forest fires present a notable danger to economies and human communities. Accurate forest fire forecasting can support timely reactions, resource allocation, and effective management strategies. Methods: The Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation approach is used to extract the key features from the dataset that was obtained from Kaggle. This technique combines feature selection and cross-validation to ensure the selected features are well-suited to new data. The Random Forest regressor, which constructs several decision trees and combines their predictions to provide a more accurate and reliable result, will be used to implement the prediction. Findings: Recursive Feature Elimination identified temperature, wind speed, and humidity as the most significant predictors of wildfire occurrence. Less impactful features, such as atmospheric pressure and solar radiation, were eliminated, improving model efficiency without compromising accuracy. The model achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.15 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.21, outperforming baseline methods. A high R2 score of 0.92 indicated strong predictive capability and explained variance. Cross-validation confirmed the model's robustness across different data splits, demonstrating consistent performance with minimal overfitting. Early identification of high-risk periods based on weather conditions can enhance wildfire preparedness and resource allocation. Novelty: The novelty lies in integrating Recursive Feature Elimination with Random Forest Regressor to optimize weather-based feature selection, enhancing wildfire prediction accuracy and efficiency for proactive disaster management. Keywords: Wildfire Prediction, Recursive Feature Elimination, Random Forest Regressor, Weather Data, Feature Optimization

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Nurullaev, Mirkhon Mukhammadovich, and Rakhmatillo Djuraevich Aloev. "Working with cryptographic key information." International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) 13, no. 1 (2023): 911–19. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v13i1.pp911-919.

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It is important to create a cryptographic system such that the encryption system does not depend on the secret storage of the algorithm that is part of it, but only on the private key that is kept secret. In practice, key management is a separate area of cryptography, which is considered a problematic area. This paper describes the main characteristics of working with cryptographic key information. In that, the formation of keys and working with cryptographic key information are stored on external media. The random-number generator for generating random numbers used for cryptographic key generation is elucidated. To initialize the sensor, a source of external entropy, mechanism “Electronic Roulette” (biological random number), is used. The generated random bits were checked on the basis of National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) statistical tests. As a result of the survey, the sequence of random bits was obtained from the tests at a value of P ≥ 0.01. The value of P is between 0 and 1, and the closer the value of P is to 1, the more random the sequence of bits is generated. This means that random bits that are generated based on the proposed algorithm can be used in cryptography to generate crypto-resistant keys.

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Vos, Paul W. "Random Variables Aren’t Random." Mathematics 13, no. 5 (2025): 775. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13050775.

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This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We show how measure-theoretic probability provides a framework for modeling populations through distributions, leading to three key contributions. First, we establish that random variables, properly understood as measurable functions, can be fully characterized without appealing to infinite hypothetical samples. Second, we demonstrate how this perspective enables statistical inference through logical rather than probabilistic reasoning, extending the reductio ad absurdum argument from deductive to inductive inference. Third, we show how this framework naturally leads to an information-based assessment of statistical procedures, replacing traditional inference metrics that emphasize bias and variance with information-based approaches that describe the families of distributions used in parametric inference better. This reformulation addresses long-standing debates in statistical inference while providing a more coherent theoretical foundation. Our approach offers an alternative to traditional frequentist inference that maintains mathematical rigor while avoiding the philosophical complications inherent in repeated sampling interpretations.

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KIKKAWA, Sho. "Biomedical Information Engineering : Information Processing of Biomedical Random Data." Journal of the Society of Mechanical Engineers 89, no. 811 (1986): 583–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1299/jsmemag.89.811_583.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Random information"

1

Sneltvedt, Tommy. "Sequential value information for Markov random field." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for fysikk, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-13500.

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Higgins, Julian P. T. "Exploiting information in random effects meta-analysis." Thesis, University of Reading, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.387704.

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Barber, Stuart. "Group sequential tests with random information accrual." Thesis, University of Bath, 1999. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.301534.

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Law, Yan Tai. "Pricing under random information flow and the theory of information pricing." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/9292.

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This thesis presents a mathematical formulation of informational inhomogeneity in financial markets, with emphasis on its impact on asset volatility, the notion of information extraction, and the role of information providers. We begin with a brief review of the BHM framework, which models the market filtration by an information process consisting of a signal and a noise term, such that the signal-to-noise ratio is determined by the information flow rate. Motivated by the observations that valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously across financial markets, and that the information flow rate is typically random, we introduce, in the first part of the thesis, an extension of the BHM approach that leads to the simplest class of stochastic volatility models. In this extended framework we derive closed form expressions: for (a) asset price processes; (b) pricing formulae for options; and (c) option deltas. We show that the model can be calibrated to fit volatility surfaces reasonably well, and that it can be used effectively to model information manipulation. In the second part we introduce a framework for the valuation of information. In particular, a new formulation of the utility-indifference argument is introduced and used as a basis for pricing. We regard information as a quantity that converts a prior distributions into a posterior distributions. The amount of information can thus be quantified by relative entropy. The key to our theory is to equate the maximised a posterior utility with the a posterior expectation of the utility of the a priori optimal strategy. This formulation leads to one price for a given quantity of upside, and another for a given quantity of downside information. Various intuitive, as well as counterintuitive implications (for example, price of information is not necessarily an increasing function of the volume of information) of our theory are discussed in detail.

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Ratnarajah, Tharmalingam. "Topics in complex random matrices and information theory." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/29001.

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The eigenvalue distribution of both central and noncentral complex Wishart matrices are investigated with the objective of studying several open problems in information theory and numerical analysis, etc. Specifically, the largest, kth largest, and the smallest eigenvalue distributions of complex Wishart matrices and the condition number distribution of complex Gaussian random matrices are derived. These distributions are represented by complex hypergeometric functions of matrix arguments, which can be expressed in terms of complex zonal polynomials. We derive several results on complex hypergeometric functions and zonal polynomials that are used to evaluate these distributions. We also give a method to compute these complex hypergeometric functions. Then the connection between the complex Wishart matrix theory and information theory is formulated. This facilitates the evaluation of the most important information-theoretic measure, the so-called channel capacity. The capacity of the communication channel expresses the maximum rate at which information can be reliably conveyed by the channel. In particular, the capacities of the multiple input, multiple output Rayleigh and Rician distributed channels are fully investigated. We consider both correlated and uncorrelated channels and derive the corresponding channel capacity formulas. These studies show how the channel correlations degrade the capacity of the communication system.

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Loher, Urs. "Information-theoretic and genie-aided analyses of random-acess algorithms /." Zurich, 1998. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=12627.

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Ideker, Trey. "Offset correction techniques for imaging sensors using random dither information." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/11470.

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Tyrrell, Simon. "Random and rational methods for compound selection." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.370002.

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Hansson, Bevin. "Random Testing of Code Generation in Compilers." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för informations- och kommunikationsteknik (ICT), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-175852.

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Compilers are a necessary tool for all software development. As modern compilers are large and complex systems, ensuring that the code they produce is accurate and correct is a vital but arduous task. Correctness of the code generation stage is important. Maintaining full coverage of test cases in a compiler is virtually impossible due to the large input and output domains. We propose that random testing is a highly viable method for testing a compiler. A method is presented to randomly generate a lower level code representation and use it to test the code generation stage of a compiler. This enables targeted testing of some of the most complex components of a modern compiler (register allocation, instruction scheduling) for the first time. The design is implemented in a state-of-the-art optimizing compiler, LLVM, to determine the effectiveness and viability of the method. Three distinct failures are observed during the evaluation phase. We analyze the causes behind these failures and conclude that the methods described in this work have the potential to uncover compiler defects which are not observable with other testing approaches.<br>Kompilatorer är nödvändiga för all mjukvaruutveckling. Det ärsvårt att säkerställa att koden som produceras är korrekt, eftersomkompilatorer är mycket stora och komplexa system. Kodriktigheteninom kodgenereringsstadiet (registerallokering och instruktionsschemaläggning) är särskilt viktig. Att uppnå full täckningav testfall i en kompilator är praktiskt taget omöjligt på grund avde stora domänerna för in- och utdata.Vi föreslår att slumpmässig testning är en mycket användbarmetod för att testa en kompilator. En metod presenteras för attgenerera slumpmässig kod på en lägre representationsnivå och testakodgenereringsstadiet i en kompilator. Detta möjliggör riktadtestning av några av de mest komplexa delarna i en modern kompilator(registerallokering, instruktionsschemaläggning) för förstagången.Designen implementeras i en toppmodern optimerande kompilator,LLVM, för att avgöra metodens effektivitet. Tre olika misslyckandenobserveras under utvärderingsfasen. Vi analyserar orsakernabakom dessa misslyckanden och drar slutsatsen att demetoder som beskrivs har potential att finna kompilatordefektersom inte kan observeras med andra testmetoder. Kompilatorer är nödvändiga för all mjukvaruutveckling. Det är svårt att säkerställa att koden som produceras är korrekt, eftersom kompilatorer är mycket stora och komplexa system. Kodriktigheten inom kodgenereringsstadiet (registerallokering och instruktionsschemal äggning) är särskilt viktig. Att uppnå full täckning av testfall i en kompilator är praktiskt taget omöjligt på grund av de stora domänerna för in- och utdata. Vi föreslår att slumpmässig testning är en mycket användbar metod för att testa en kompilator. En metod presenteras för att generera slumpmässig kod på en lägre representationsnivå och testa kodgenereringsstadiet i en kompilator. Detta möjliggör riktad testning av några av de mest komplexa delarna i en modern kompilator (registerallokering, instruktionsschemaläggning) för första gången. Designen implementeras i en toppmodern optimerande kompilator, LLVM, för att avgöra metodens effektivitet. Tre olika misslyckanden observeras under utvärderingsfasen. Vi analyserar orsakerna bakom dessa misslyckanden och drar slutsatsen att de metoder som beskrivs har potential att finna kompilatordefekter som inte kan observeras med andra testmetoder.

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Conway, P. A. "The application of random dither to a digital CODEC." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.233656.

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Books on the topic "Random information"

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Tolia, R. S. RTI and random thoughts. Uttarakhand Information Commission, 2010.

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López-Díaz, Miguel, María Á. Gil, Przemysław Grzegorzewski, Olgierd Hryniewicz, and Jonathan Lawry. Soft Methodology and Random Information Systems. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-44465-7.

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Alonso, Laurent. Random Generation of Trees: Random Generators in Computer Science. Springer US, 1995.

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Franceschetti, Massimo. Random networks for communication: From statistical physics to information systems. Cambridge University Press, 2007.

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Baram, Yoram. Estimation and classification by sigmoids based on mutual information. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1994.

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Alonso, Laurent. Random generation of trees: Random generators in computer science. Kluwer Academic, 1995.

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Hedge, Ashok. Random walk: Essays on IT and business of capital markets industry. Prism Books, 2010.

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Ristic, Branko. Particle Filters for Random Set Models. Springer New York, 2013.

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Koblitz, Neal. Random curves: Journeys of a mathematician. Springer Verlag, 2008.

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Vísek, J. A. Transactions of the Tenth Prague Conference on Information Theory, Statistical Decision Functions, Random Processes. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9913-4.

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Book chapters on the topic "Random information"

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Beltrami, Edward. "Uncertainty and Information." In What Is Random? Springer US, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-0716-0799-2_2.

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Beltrami, Edward. "Uncertainty and Information." In What Is Random? Springer New York, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1472-4_2.

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Calude, Cristian. "Random Strings." In Information and Randomness. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03049-3_5.

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Calude, Cristian. "Random Sequences." In Information and Randomness. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03049-3_6.

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Beltrami, Edward. "Algorithms, Information, and Chance." In What Is Random? Springer US, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-0716-0799-2_4.

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Beltrami, Edward. "Algorithms, Information, and Chance." In What Is Random? Springer New York, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1472-4_4.

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Mahler, Ronald P. S. "Random Sets in Information Fusion an Overview." In Random Sets. Springer New York, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1942-2_7.

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Skorohod, A. V. "Preliminary Information." In Random Processes with Independent Increments. Springer Netherlands, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3710-2_1.

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Cencini, Massimo, Andrea Puglisi, Davide Vergni, and Angelo Vulpiani. "Information Theory." In A Random Walk in Physics. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72531-0_15.

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Cai, Leran, Thomas Sauerwald, and Luca Zanetti. "Random Walks on Randomly Evolving Graphs." In Structural Information and Communication Complexity. Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54921-3_7.

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Conference papers on the topic "Random information"

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Liang, Yan, Jian Dang, and Zaichen Zhang. "Random Matrix Spreading for Unsourced Random Access." In 2025 6th International Conference on Electrical, Electronic Information and Communication Engineering (EEICE). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/eeice65049.2025.11033976.

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Chandra, Prafulla, and Andrew Thangaraj. "Missing Mass Under Random Duplications." In 2024 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isit57864.2024.10619664.

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Elimelech, Dor, and Wasim Huleihel. "Detection of Correlated Random Vectors." In 2024 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isit57864.2024.10619309.

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Wang, Qianfan, Yixin Wang, Yiwen Wang, Jifan Liang, and Xiao Ma. "Random Staircase Generator Matrix Codes." In 2024 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isit57864.2024.10619485.

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Abramson, Nils H., Richard L. Amoroso, Peter Rowlands, and Stanley Jeffers. "Instant Random Information." In SEARCH FOR FUNDAMENTAL THEORY: The VII International Symposium Honoring French Mathematical Physicist Jean-Pierre Vigier. AIP, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3536425.

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Kim, Jang-Hwan, Kyu-Tae Kim, and Eun-Soo Kim. "Information hiding using random sequences." In SPIE's International Symposium on Optical Science, Engineering, and Instrumentation, edited by Mark S. Schmalz. SPIE, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.372752.

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HIDA, TAKEYUKI. "INFORMATION, INNOVATION AND ELEMENTAL RANDOM FIELD." In Quantum Information and Computing. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812774491_0016.

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SCHOTT, RENÉ, and G. STACEY STAPLES. "CLIFFORD ALGEBRAS, RANDOM GRAPHS, AND QUANTUM RANDOM VARIABLES." In Quantum Stochastics and Information - Statistics, Filtering and Control. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812832962_0005.

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Kam, Clement, Sastry Kompella, and Anthony Ephremides. "Age of information under random updates." In 2013 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isit.2013.6620189.

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Penso, Lucia Draque. "Session details: Information spreading, random walks." In PODC '12: ACM Symposium on Principles of Distributed Computing. ACM, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3245049.

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Reports on the topic "Random information"

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Goldsmith, Andrea J., Stephen Boyd, H. V. Poor, and Yonina Eldar. Complex Network Information Exchange in Random Wireless Environments. Defense Technical Information Center, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada576751.

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Dunker, Fabian, Stefan Hoderlein, and Hiroaki Kaido. Random coefficients in static games of complete information. Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1920/wp.cem.2013.1213.

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Edwards, Susan L., Marcus E. Berzofsky, and Paul P. Biemer. Addressing Nonresponse for Categorical Data Items Using Full Information Maximum Likelihood with Latent GOLD 5.0. RTI Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3768/rtipress.2018.mr.0038.1809.

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Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) is an important approach to compensating for nonresponse in data analysis. Unfortunately, only a few software packages implement FIML and even fewer have the capability to compensate for missing not at random (MNAR) nonresponse. One of these packages is Statistical Innovations’ Latent GOLD; however, the user documentation for Latent GOLD provides no mention of this capability. The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance for fitting MNAR FIML models for categorical data items using the Latent GOLD 5.0 software. By way of comparison, we also provide guidance on fitting FIML models for nonresponse missing at random (MAR) using the methods of Fuchs (1982) and Fay (1986), who incorporated item nonresponse indicators within a structural modeling framework. We compare both FIML for MAR and FIML for MNAR nonresponse models for independent and dependent variables. Also, we provide recommendations for future applications of FIML using Latent GOLD.

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Cilliers, Jacobus, and James Habyarimana. Tackling Implementation Challenges with Information: Experimental Evidence from a School Governance Reform in Tanzania. Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE), 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-rise-wp_2023/142.

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This paper investigates inter-agency coordination challenges in implementing Tanzania's nationwide school governance programme, which generates school- and teacher-specific diagnostics and recommendations to enhance quality. However, information and managerial frictions between agencies undermine the programme's efficacy. In a random subset of schools, we implement a text message intervention, providing local bureaucrats with summaries of the recommendations. We find the programme improved student learning and teaching practices, but only when combined with text messages. Notably, gains were larger in regions with additional monitoring resources. Addressing these implementation challenges positions this initiative among the most cost-effective education programmes known to date.

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Bäumler, Maximilian, Günther Prokop, Matthias Lehmann, and Linda Dziuba-Kaiser. Use Information You Have Never Observed Together: Data Fusion as a Major Step Towards Realistic Test Scenarios. TU Dresden, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.26128/2024.3.

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Scenario-based testing is a major pillar in the development and effectiveness assessment of automated driving systems. Thereby, test scenarios address different information layers and situations (normal driving, critical situations and accidents) by using different databases. However, the systematic combination of accident and / or normal driving databases into new synthetic databases can help to obtain scenarios that are as realistic as possible. This paper shows how statistical matching (SM) can be applied to fuse different categorical accident and traffic observation databases. Hereby, the fusion is demonstrated in two use cases, each featuring several fusion methods. In use case 1, a synthetic database was generated out of two accident data samples, whereby 78.7% of the original values could be estimated correctly by a random forest classifier. The same fusion using distance-hot-deck reproduced only 67% of the original values, but better preserved the marginal distributions. A real-world application is illustrated in use case 2, where accident data was fused with over 23,000 car trajectories at one intersection in Germany. We could show that SM is applicable to fuse categorical traffic databases. In future research, the combination of hotdeck- methods and machine learning classifiers needs to be further investigated.

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Keller, David L. Using the Random Nearest Neighbor Data Mining Method to Extract Maximum Information Content from Weather Forecasts from Multiple Predictors of Weather and One Predictand (Low-Level Turbulence). Defense Technical Information Center, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada613335.

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Graziano, Alejandro, Christian Volpe Martincus, and Jerónimo Carballo. Customs. Inter-American Development Bank, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011743.

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In this paper, we estimate the effects of custom-related delays on firms'exports. In so doing, we use a unique dataset that consists of the universe of Uruguay's export transactions over the period 2002-2011 and includes precise information on the actual time it took for each of these transactions to go through customs. We account for potential endogeneity of these processing times by exploiting the conditional random allocation of shipments to different verification channels associated with the use of riskbased control procedures. Results suggest that delays have a significant negative impact on firms' exports along several dimensions. Effects are more pronounced on sales to newer buyers.

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Li, Jia-Qi, PWH Kwong, YW Sun, WS So, and A. Sidarta. A comprehensive appraisal of meta-analyses in exercise-based stroke rehabilitation with trial sequential analysis. INPLASY - International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2022.8.0006.

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Review question / Objective: This study aims to use the trial sequential analysis (TSA) method to examine if the published meta-analyses concerning stroke rehabilitation reached the required information size and if the overall effect size is robust as well. Condition being studied: Stroke rehabilitation. Eligibility criteria: Studies were included if they 1) were meta-analyses of random control trials (RCTs) on people with stroke, 2) included meta-analyses results in gait speed (or 6MWT) or bal-ance performance. Studies were excluded if they 1) were conference abstracts, letters to the editor 2) lack the statistical parameters such as mean, standard deviations (SD), and number value in the articles and raw data from the cited studies cannot be found.

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Delgado, Martha Elena, Juan David Herreño, Marc Hofstetter, and Mathieu Pedemonte. The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations: Preliminary Findings. Inter-American Development Bank, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013145.

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We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the future expected exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in a small open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. This information treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we estimate a positive elasticity of current import expenditures to a future expected depreciation. Our estimates highlight the intertemporal margin of trade to anticipated changes in trade costs.

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Delgado, Martha Elena, Juan David Herreño, and Marc Hofstetter. The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations. Inter-American Development Bank, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013188.

Full text

Abstract:

We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the future expected exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in a small open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. This information treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we estimate a positive elasticity of current import expenditures to a future expected depreciation. Our estimates highlight the intertemporal margin of trade to anticipated changes in trade costs.

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