Academic literature on the topic 'Rate of Change of Information Technology'

Modern organizations require dynamic, and cognitively-complex, information-bases from their personnel. Methodology and knowledge requirements change constantly with new technological innovations. The use of traditional paper-and-pencil measures of achievement and ability cannot accurately assess learning acquisition in novel situations. Prediction criteria based on rate at which information is acquired rely less on past experience and education, and more on changes in performance over time. The present research, based on these information-processing assessment techniques, used Computerized Experimental Learning Techniques (CELTS) to measure rate and level of learning. These CELTS were used to predict the performance of students enrolled in Computer Science, Electrical Engineering, and Mechanical Engineering classes. CELT-based learning level parameters contributed to prediction of course grade in the Computer Science and Engineering courses. Unique contributions of CELT learning rate measures were also determined after the variance in students' grade point averages were accounted for. Applications of the current research are important in the development of selection criteria for dynamic personnel postions. Future research is needed to document specific cognitive requirements of individual professions, and to develop computer-based techniques which assess these functions.

Abstract Specialists in extremely diverse fields draw our attention to a wide range of problems facing humanity, problems that are global, universal, multidisciplinary, with priority: pollution, poverty, depletion of natural resources, war in unseen forms of humanity, pandemic, information explosion, etc. What they all have in common is that their dynamics are accelerated. Even if change is a natural phenomenon, a phenomenon that supports evolution and development, starting with the end of the twentieth century and more and more acute today, there is an acceleration of the rhytm of change in all areas of life. Specialists believe that new content is now needed more than ever to provide the information and skills needed to deal with these problems, content that offers new dimensions of education. This paper aims on the one hand to review the paradigms and theories that could build the trunk of education for change (progressivism and prospectivism), and on the other hand, to list and describe the purposes of an education for change, as pedagogues put us in the theme.

In order to research on information applied technology with analysis the fluctuations of supply quantity, volume of trade, failed auction rate and price series in auction market, analysis the data from Kunming flowers auction market. The series have autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effect. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model with normal distribution fits yield series, and EGARCH with General Error Distribution (GED) fits supply quantity and volume of trade change rate. EGARCH (1.1) with normal distribution fits change rate of failed auction rate. These results provide basis for forecasting change rate of supply quantity, volume of trade, failed auction rate and price in market.

With the increasing complexity and rate of change, self-directed learning and problem-solving become vital, along with interpersonal and team skills. It is evident that new ways of teaching and learning must be devised if our children are to be prepared for the 21st century.

AbstractThe legal information landscape has always been one of instability and change. The rate of these changes seems to be speeding up as societal and technological changes interact and impact our lives. In the face of this volatility, we should remain constant by being the human factor between information and our clients. We are the interface between new technology and the changing information usage behaviours of our clients. We must understand both aspects to ensure the best outcomes. Our client centric attitude positions us perfectly to be leaders when exploring, and perhaps even creating, new solutions. We are best placed to bring them back to our institutions and provide the human touch to ensure they are implemented in a way that will succeed and add value. It is important to embrace this constant state of flux and find our value in being supportive change agents, while also ensuring that we can ensure, and advocate for, the importance of safeguarding legal information for generations to come.

The airborne passive location has the characteristics of good mobility and scope range is wide. The location accuracy of traditional angle-measure only passive location is low and the location time is long. Passive location that use phase change rate as observation information can overcome these shortcomings noticed above. Research the process of filtering principle of MVEKF algorithm and its application in airborne single passive location. Come up with the principle of phase change rate location method, and from simulation results, using MVEKF algorithm in airborne single passive location can reach the result that positioning precisely and convergence rapidly.

Hyperspectral remote sensing is the multi-dimensional information obtaining technology,which combines target detection and spectral imaging technology together, In order to accord with the condition of hyperspectral imagery，the paper developed an optimized ICA algorithm for change detection to describe the statistical distribution of the data. By processing these abundance maps, change of different classes of objects can be obtained..A approach is capable of self-adaptation, and can be applied to hyperspectral images with different characteristics. Experiment results demonstrate that the ICA-based hyperspectral change detection performs better than other traditional methods with a high detection rate and a low false detection rate.

The main purpose of most transport companies is to provide the quality services to customers with minimal costs. At the same time, determination of the number of vehicles and their utilization rate when satisfying transportation orders is the important task, the proper solution of which leads to the full and timely servicing and contributes to an increase of a transport company's competitiveness in the present-day market. Due to the analysis results of the state-of-the-art literature and Internet sources, it has been revealed that the problem of finding the rational fleet size and the rate of its utilization to complete the transportation orders were not fully solved. From the criteria analysis it has been proposed to substantiate the vehicle fleet size according to the car utilization rate to be assigned as the "vehicle working time-to-total working time" ratio. Considering the probabilistic nature of the transportation process, a simulation model to complete the orders by a truck fleet has been developed in the AnyLogic environment. An experimental plan has been developed to reproduce the real transportation order conditions and consisted of 27 series, each of which was of 100 experiments. The variation range of input factors, which was the transportation distance, vehicles' number and orders' hourly intensity were [10;30], [1;3] and [0.6;1], respectively. From the experimental results processing by the regression analysis methods, it has been found that the dependence of changes in the car utilization rate, transportation distance, vehicle' number and orders' intensity was of linear form. The obtained dependence has been estimated via the determination coefficient, which was 0.95, and indicated the high quality of the model proposed. The resulting model allows calculating the required number of vehicles from their operating conditions. In the case study the 2 vehicles were recommended to service the transportation orders. Further research efforts can be taking into account a larger number of influencing factors, increasing their variation range and obtaining dependencies to describe the presented criterion change to acceptable accuracy.

The implementation of advanced information systems is enabling great social and organisational changes. However,health care has been one of the slowest sectors to adopt and implement information technology (IT). This paperinvestigates why this is so, reviewing innovation diffusion theory and its application to both health organisations andinformation technology. Innovation diffusion theory identifies variables that influence the 'innovativeness' oforganisations and the rate at which a technology diffuses. When analysed, these variables show why ITimplementation has progressed at a slower rate in health compared with other industry sectors. The complexity ofhealth organisations and their fragmented internal structure constrain their ability to adopt organisation wide IT.This is further impacted upon by the relative immaturity of strategic health IT which is complicated and unable toshow quantifiable benefits. Both organisational and technological factors lead to the slow adoption of strategic IT. Onthe other hand, localised IT solutions and those providing measurable cost reductions have diffused well.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of spatio-temporal dynamics and the evolution of land use change is essential for understanding and assessing the status and transition of ecosystems. Such analysis, when applied to Horqin sandy land, can also provide basic information for appropriate decision-making. Design/methodology/approach By integrating long time series Landsat imageries and geographic information system (GIS) technology, this paper explored the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution-induced land use change of the largest sandy land in China from 1983 to 2016. Accurate and consistent land use information and land use change information was first extracted by using the maximum likelihood classifier and the post-classification change detection method, respectively. The spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution were then analyzed using three kinds of index models: the dynamic degree model to analyze the change of regional land resources, the dynamic change transfer matrix and flow direction rate to analyze the change direction, and the barycenter transfer model to analyze the spatial pattern of land use change. Findings The results indicated that land use in Horqin sandy land during the study period changed dramatically. Vegetation and sandy land showed fluctuating changes, cropland and construction land steadily increased, water body decreased continuously, and the spatial distribution patterns of land use were generally unbalanced. Vegetation, sandy land and cropland were transferred frequently. The amount of vegetation loss was the largest. Water body loss was 473.6 km2, which accounted for 41.7 per cent of the total water body. The loss amount of construction land was only 1.0 km2. Considerable differences were noted in the rate of gravity center migration among the land use types in different periods, and the overall rate of construction land migration was the smallest. Moreover, the gravity center migration rates of the water body and sandy land were relatively high and were related to the fragile ecological environment of Horqin sandy land. Originality/value The results not only confirmed the applicability and effectiveness of the combined method of remote sensing and GIS technology but also revealed notable spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution-induced land use change throughout the different time periods (1983-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2014, 2014-2016 and 1983-2016).

A major challenge for Information Technology (IT) programs is that the rapid pace of evolution of computing technology leads to frequent redesign of IT courses. The problem is exacerbated by several factors. Firstly, the changing technology is the subject matter of the discipline and is also frequently used to support instruction; secondly, this discipline has only been formalized as a four-year university program within recent years and there is a lack of established textbooks and curriculum models; finally, updating courses is seldom rewarded in a higher education system that favors research and teaching for promotion and tenure. Thus, continuously updating their courses place a significant burden on the faculty. A case study approach was used to describe and explain the change processes in updating IT courses. Several faculty members at two institutions were interviewed and course changes were identified and analyzed. The analysis revealed a set of recurrent themes in change processes. An instructional design architecture approach also revealed a set of design domains representing the structure of the change processes. The design domains were analyzed in terms of the design decisions they represented, and also in terms of structures, functions and activities, which are related to Structures-Behaviors-Functions (SBF) analysis. The design domains model helped to explain both negative and positive outcomes that were observed in the data. When design efforts impact multiple domains the design is likely to be more difficult. Understanding the design domain architecture will assist future designers in this discipline.

As technology and organizations continue to increase in complexity, a willingness to implement change management strategies for Internet technology (IT) change initiatives is necessary in a healthcare setting. This multiple case study explored change management strategies that 3 hospital administrators at 3 different hospitals in the southeast region of the United States used to guide organizational IT change activities to avoid waste and increase profits. The conceptual framework for this study was Lewin's organizational change model and Kanter's theory of structural empowerment. Data were collected using semistructured interviews and a review of hospital documentation from the 3 hospitals. The data analysis process was completed by transcribing the interview recordings and coding the data using a codebook and data-management software. Themes that emerged from data analysis included strategies to increase digitization in all areas, improve communication with IT personnel, provide ongoing training, and encourage the gradual adoption of technology. The implications of this study for positive social change include the potential to provide hospital managers with successful strategies related to the use of IT in hospitals to facilitate improved patient care and community well-being.

The implementation of a new Information Technology in an organization represents a significant change. Little research, however, has been conducted on the collective power of Information Technology acceptance and change management. The current research seeks to integrate a prominent model of technology acceptance and change management theory to develop an holistic approach to Information Technology implementation and acceptance. Using Davis' (1989) Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) (Attitude) and Beer, Eisenstat and Specter's (1990) six step model of change (Change), this three phase longitudinal case study examined the change management of the implementation of a new Information System within a statutory authority. Results from the current study show that the addition of the six step model (Change) adds appreciably to the TAM (Attitude) in the prediction of general service satisfaction and perceived implementation success. Findings also show the temporal salience of the factors of the six step model and the TAM in the prediction of these dependent variables. The current research supports previous work by Davis (1989) and Thompson, Higgins and Howell (1994) who stated that initially people are motivated to use an Information System by affect, but will in time be more concerned with usefulness as habit formation occurs. The current study found that during the pre-implementation phase, commitment through communication and vision are critical to the change process. However, as the change moves into the implementation phase, consensus becomes most important. The shift in factors salient during the change process is what the author refers to as the temporal progression proposition. Strengths and limitations of the current study and recommendations for future research are discussed.

Consider the following questions in the early stage of new product development. What should be the target market for proposed design concepts? Who will be the competitors and how fast are they moving forward in terms of performance improvements? Ultimately, is the current design concept and targeted launch date feasible and competitive? To answer these questions, there is a need to integrate the product benchmarking with the assessment of performance improvement so that analysts can have a risk measure for their R&D target setting practices. Consequently, this study presents how time series benchmarking analysis can be used to assist scheduling new product releases. Specifically, the proposed model attempts to estimate the "auspicious" time by which proposed design concepts will be available as competitive products by taking into account the rate of performance improvement expected in a target segment. The empirical illustration of commercial airplane development has shown that this new method provides valuable information such as dominating designs, distinct segments, and the potential rate of performance improvement, which can be utilized in the early stage of new product development. In particular, six dominant airplanes are identified with corresponding local RoCs and, inter alia, technological advancement toward long-range and wide-body airplanes represents very competitive segments of the market with rapid changes. The resulting individualized RoCs are able to estimate the arrivals of four different design concepts, which is consistent with what has happened since 2007 in commercial airplane industry. In addition, the case study of the Exascale supercomputer development is presented to demonstrate the predictive use of the new method. The results indicate that the current development target of 2020 might entail technical risks considering the rate of change emphasizing power efficiency observed in the past. It is forecasted that either a Cray-built hybrid system using Intel processors or an IBM-built Blue Gene architecture system using PowerPC processors will likely achieve the goal between early 2021 and late 2022. This indicates that the challenge to improve the power efficiency by a factor of 23 would require the maximum delay of 4 years to reach the Exascale supercomputer compared to the existing performance curve.

AbstractThis paper presents a method for online vibration analysis and a simple test bench analogue for the solder pumping system in an industrial wave-soldering machine at a Siemens factory. A common machine fault is caused by solder build-up within the pipes of the machine. This leads to a pressure drop in the system, which is replicated in the test bench by restricting the flow of water using a gate valve. The pump’s vibrational response is recorded using an accelerometer. The captured data is passed through an online Bayesian Changepoint Detection algorithm, adapted from existing literature, to detect the point at which the change in flow rate affects the pump, and thus the PCB assembly capability of the machine. This information can be used to trigger machine maintenance operations, or to isolate the vibrational response indicative of the machine fault.

Considerable effort has been made to evaluate the technological improvement required to achieve global emission levels that are estimated to be needed to prevent the most serious impacts of climate change. While these analyses have highlighted the magnitude of technological change needed to meet target emission levels, the rate of such change has not been discussed as frequently. Application of the simple yet informative Kaya Identity, which relates emission levels to social and technological drivers, can be applied to gain insights into the required rate of technological change. This analysis shows that the current rate of technological improvement, as measured by the rate of change in energy intensity of economic growth (energy/dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity [carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit energy], must be accelerated to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels to levels estimated to be needed to avoid serious climate impacts, even if population and economic activity were to remain constant. Given projected population growth and desired economic growth, the rate of technological change must accelerate by a factor of 5–8 times current levels and maintain that level of change for the foreseeable future. Such an accelerated pace of technological change has substantial implications for energy technology development, the need for technical expertise, and potentially the structure of the economy as a whole.

A simplified safety valve simulation model is established on basis of a widely used safety valve in engineering-spring directly loading safety valve, and the relationship between the mechanic parameter of spring surface and loading is discussed according to the result of simulation analysis. The relationship of strain varying rate in spring measuring point and setting pressure varying rate of safety valve is achieved, it can be used as a online fault diagnosis criteria when setting pressure changes in working course. Furthermore, an online testing technology of safety valve is proposed. Through experiment research using traditional electric strain sensor, the relationship between measured parameters of the specific parts in the safety-valve and the experimental loading is achieved, and the online testing method is proved to be very workable.

Paper deals with the analysis of research and development expenditure. Expenditure per capita in European Union countries in years 2009 - 2018 and total research and development expenditure in million Euro are analyzed. The aim of the paper is to find out in which countries expenditure per capita increased the most during the observed period and in which it decreased, what was the average annual growth rate of this indicator. Contribution method will help to analyze how the total research and development expenditure in 27 European Union countries has changed, what was the share of each country in this expenditure, which countries contributed the most to this change and which the least. Research and development expenditure per capita increased average annually between 2009 and 2018 in all analyzed countries, except Luxembourg and Finland, where it decreased. The highest average annual growth was recorded in Poland (12.48%), Latvia (10.50%), Slovakia (10.47%) and Bulgaria (10.38%). Total research and development expenditure increased in 2018 compared to 2009 by 41.65%, Germany (18.11%) and France (4.29%) contributed the most to this increase.

The trees, developed green spaces, and natural areas within the City of Austin’s 400,882 acres will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the City Austin to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how less common native species, nonnative species, and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening trees and forests in Austin. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, and development. Austin has been warming at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade since measurements began in 1938 and temperature is expected to increase by 5 to 10°F by the end of this century compared to the most recent 30-year average. Both increases in heavy rain events and severe droughts are projected for the future, and the overall balance of precipitation and temperature may shift Austin’s climate to be more similar to the arid Southwest. Species distribution modeling of native trees suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 14 primarily northern species, and increase for four more southern species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that only 3% of the trees estimated to be present in Austin based on the most recent Urban FIA estimate were considered to have low vulnerability in developed areas. Using a panel of local experts, we also assessed the vulnerability of developed and natural areas. All areas were rated as having moderate to moderate-high vulnerability, but the underlying factors driving that vulnerability differed by natural community and between East and West Austin. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.

Permanent demand shocks are the main driver of labor adjustments. A one standard deviation demand shock increases the net employment rate by 6 percentage points in the long run, while a technology shock increases it by 0.5. Transitory demand shocks have much smaller impacts. When hit by a permanent demand shock, firms adjust fast and symmetrically. Most of the labor change occurs within a year. If the shock is positive, firms adjust by increasing hires. If the shock is negative, they increase separations without reducing hires.

Long-term bird banding data were collected from 1996–2019 (except in 2008) to assess the New River riparian zone avian community in one location in New River Gorge National River (NERI). The NERI banding station has banded over 4,500 individuals over 10,700 net hours in the twenty-three years it has been in operation and has captured 80 different species. Total captures, capture rate, and total species have been declining annually over the study period. Species associated with early-successional/shrubland habitat also declined over the study period, which is consistent with regional trends during the same time frame. Species richness of habitat guilds did not change over the study period within specific major habitat types. Capture metrics of Louisiana Waterthrush, an obligate riparian species, did increase over the study period. Continued banding will further provide information to assist in local management and contribute to regional data.

In recent years, mission-oriented approaches have received growing interest in science, technology and innovation (STI) policies against the background of two developments. First, while so-called “horizontal” or “generic” approaches to research, technology and innovation policies have largely been successful in improving the general innovation performance or the rate of innovation, there are perceived limitations in terms of insufficiently addressing the direction of technological change and innovation. Second, “grand societal challenges” emerged on policy agendas, such as climate change, security, food and energy supply or ageing populations, which call for thematic orientation and the targeting of research and innovation efforts. In addition, the apparent success of some mission-oriented initiatives in countries like China, South Korea, and the United States in boosting technological development for purposes of strengthening competitiveness contributed to boosting the interest in targeted and directional government interventions in STI. Against the backdrop of this renewed interest in mission-oriented STI policy, the OECD has addressed the growing importance of this topic and launched a project looking into current experiences with Mission-Oriented Innovation Policy (MOIP). The present study on MOIP in Austria was commissioned by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Energy, Mobility, Environment, Innovation and Technologiy (BMK) and comprises the Austrian contributions to this OECD project. The study aims at contributing Austrian experiences to the international debate and to stimulate a national debate on MOIP.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Novel materials with unique or enhanced properties relative to conventional materials are being developed at an increasing rate. These materials are often referred to as advanced materials (AdMs) and they enable technological innovations that can benefit society. Despite their benefits, however, the unique characteristics of many AdMs, including many nanomaterials, are poorly understood and may pose environmental safety and occupational health (ESOH) risks that are not readily determined by traditional risk assessment methods. To assess these risks while keeping up with the pace of development, technology developers and risk assessors frequently employ risk-screening methods that depend on a clear definition for the materials that are to be assessed (e.g., engineered nanomaterial) as well as a method for binning materials into categories for ESOH risk prioritization. In this study, we aim to establish a practitioner-driven definition for AdMs and a practitioner-validated framework for categorizing AdMs into conceptual groupings based on material characteristics. The definition and categorization framework established here serve as a first step in determining if and when there is a need for specific ESOH and regulatory screening for an AdM as well as the type and extent of risk-related information that should be collected or generated for AdMs and AdM-enabled technologies.