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Medapati, Kalyan Reddy. "Technological stock and the rate of technical change." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-277.
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Since the dawn of the capitalist epoch, most advanced countries have seen more than a hundred fold change in their total products. This combined with a near five fold change in population size had brought a huge windfall of wealth in these countries. The main engine for this capitalist machine has been the accelaration of technical progress (Maddison, 1982). In this paper we investigate for the positive relationship between the existing stock of technology and accelaration of technical progress. We use the time series data from 1982-2002 to test our regression model. The model encapsulates annual patents turnover (proxy for acceleration of technical progress), patent stock (proxy for technological stock) and R&D expenditures of four advanced countries as the primary variables, where the former acts as the dependent variable and the later two act as the determinant variables. The model projects a highly significant positive relationship between technology stock and the pace of technological progress, endorsing our hypothesis.
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Håkansson, Per. "Rate as the relation of changes in two quantities : A variation theory perspective of learning rate of change." Licentiate thesis, Jönköping University, HLK, Praktiknära utbildningsforskning (PUF), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-48907.
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This thesis comprises three original papers about learning rate of change in school mathematics. The overall aim of the thesis is to contribute with knowledge in this particular area of research. Within this aim, each of the original papers contribute with its own perspective. The theoretical framework used in the thesis is variation theory of learning (Marton & Booth, 1997; Marton, 2015), by which learning is seen as experiencing a phenomenon in a new way. This theoretical point of departure is reflected in the research question of the thesis: What is critical to discern to use and express rate as a measure of the relation of changes in two quantities? The empirical study was conducted as a learning study (Pang & Marton, 2003). A learning study is an iterative, interventional research arrangement in which teachers and researchers collaboratively explore a specific ability, the object of learning, worthwhile for the students to learn. The object of learning related to this thesis, ‘to express the quantitative rate of change of a linear relation’, was explored in a series of three research lessons at a secondary school. Data consists of students’ responses to written pre- and post-tests, and lesson videos. Some data have been analysed during the on-going empirical study and some data have been analysed after it was concluded. Principles from variation theory have been used as tools for analysis throughout the study. Main results of Paper I demonstrate how two critical aspects are identified and revised through the process of learning study. In Paper II the results indicate that qualitatively different questions in a task may affect students’ ways to relate changes in two quantities. The results of Paper III suggest how different perspectives of slope may promote homogeneity as an aspect of rate. Results also comprise six critical aspects of the object of learning, four of which was identified by revisiting the results of Paper II. In summary, the critical aspects also specify the meaning of a covariational perspective of rate. Results are discussed in relation to previous educational research about rate of change, covariation of quantities and students’ conceptions of rate and slope. Further research directions are suggested.Den här sammanläggningsuppsatsen omfattar tre artiklar om förändringstakt i matematik. Uppsatsens övergripande syfte är att bidra med kunskap till detta specifika forskningsfält. Inom ramen för detta syfte bidrar var och en av de tre artiklarna med sitt eget perspektiv. Det teoretiska ramverket i uppsatsen är variationsteori (Marton & Booth, 1997; Marton, 2015). Ur detta teoretiska perspektiv ses lärande som ett erfarande av ett fenomen på ett nytt sätt. Denna teoretiska utgångspunkt har färgat uppsatsens övergripande forskningsfråga: Vad är kritiskt att urskilja för att använda och uttrycka förändringstakt somett mått på relationen mellan förändringar i två storheter? Den empiriska studien genomfördes som en learning study (Pang et al., 2003). Learning study är en iterativ, intervenerande forskningsansats där lärare och forskare i samarbete utforskar en specifik förmåga, lärandeobjektet, något som är värdefullt för elever att lära sig. Lärandeobjektet som behandlas i denna uppsats, ’att uttrycka förändringstakten i en linjär relation kvantitativt’, utforskades i en serie av tre lektioner på en högstadieskola. Data består av elevers svar till skriftliga uppgifter i för- och eftertest, samt videoinspelade lektioner. Data har analyserats både under den pågående empiriska studien, och efter att den avslutades. Principer från variationsteori har använts som analysverktyg genom studiens gång. Huvudresultaten av Artikel I visar hur två kritiska aspekter identifieras, revideras och förfinas genom learning study som process. I Artikel II tyder resultaten på att kvalitativt olika frågor i en uppgift påverkade elevernas sätt att relatera förändringar i två storheter. Resultaten i Artikel III visar hur olika perspektiv på lutningen hos en graf kan föra fram homogenitet som en aspekt av förändringstakt. Uppsatsens resultat omfattar framför allt sex aspekter som är kritiska att urskilja för att utveckla förmågan att använda och uttrycka förändringstakt som ett mått på relationen mellan förändringar i två storheter. Fyra av dem identifierades då resultaten av Artikel II tolkades utifrån ett variationsteoretiskt perspektiv. Som helhet specificerar också de kritiska aspekterna innebörden av ett samvarierande perspektiv på förändringstakt. Resultaten diskuteras i förhållande till tidigare forskning om lärande om förändringstakt, samvariation mellan storheter och elevers uppfattningar av lutning. Några vidare forskningsriktningar pekas ut.
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Baker, Andy. "Speleothem growth rate and palaeoclimate." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/a592ea03-cfe9-4b3d-aeec-8937286065ff.
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An initial study of the palaeoclimate signal contained within speleothem growth was undertaken by' investigating regional variations in speleothem Qrowth frequency. It was demonstrated that about 500 analyses in such a regional compilation were necessary to generate a statistically significant curve which did not suffer from sample bias. However, few such regions are likely to have such a larQe data set. That from north west Europe did provide a useful palaeoclimate record, giving evidence of multiple interstadial events within isotope stage 3, and a significantly low level of growth within stage Sa. An investigation was undertaken into the palaeoclimate signal contained in variations of speleothem growth rate, based on the theory derived by Dreybrodt (1981) and Buhmann and Dreybrodt (1985) from calcite precipitation kinetics. It was demonstrated that growth rate increases with increasing calcium ion concentration, temperature and water flux (drip rate for stalagmites, water film thickness for flowstones and seasonal variations in water availability for both speleothems); turbulent flow conditions and cave air pC02, which theoretically affect growth rate, were demonstrated to be Insi9nificant. If water flux, calcium concentration and temperature all increase with improving Climate, growth rate increases may reflect climatic improvement. In particular, it was demonstrated that stalagmites should be most sensitive to changes in calcium concentrations, temperature, and seasonal shut-off of the water feed, whilst flowstones would also be sensitive to changes in water film thickness. Theoretical growth rates were tested for recently forming speleothems in excavated caves and mines. For these, minimum growth rates were determined by knowing the date of excavation of the cave or mine, and the growth rate determining variables were measured over the course of a year. It was demonstrated that the theory accurately predicted growth rates for both stalagmites and flowstones within the 20' errors based on variations in calcium ion concentration and water film thickness. However, flowstones generally grew slower than that predicted by the theory, due to the seasonal shut-off of the water supply feeding these samples. For flowstones at Kent's Cavem, growth rate was observed to Increase with Increasing water availability, for stalagmites at Lower Cave, growth rate was shown to increase with increaSing drip rate. Assuming a good prediction of growth rate by the theory, applications to Quatemary speleothems were undertaken to determine past calcium ion concentration, temperature and water flux. Growth rates were determined by thermal ionisation mass spectrometric uraniumseries dating. The growth rate of one Holocene sample from Sutherland demonstrated that variations in growth rate over the last 7 ka did not depend on temperature variations, but either to changes in calcium concentrations due to vegetation change or a non-linear response to changes in water flow. Growth rates were also determined for two flowstones from Yorkshire which had grown over the last 200 ka. However, the very fast growth rates in these samples prevented a precise record from being obtained. Mass spectrometric dating also provided a record of the timing of growth commencement and cessation. This was shown to be more complex than previously considered; in particular the Holocene growth of the Sutherland stalagmite commenced 5 ka after glacier retreat in the region, the Yorkshire flowstone from Lancaster Hole had seven growth phases, each for only 1-3 ka, five of which correlated with solar insolation maxima. In contrast, another flowstone from Stump' Cross in Yorkshire was shown to grow in both interglacial, interstadial and glacial periods of the last 200 ka. An investigation was made into the use of 13C/1'C,(t>nM to determine the type of plant community at the time of speleothem formation, and whether a non-biogenic source of CO2 was present. 13C analyses of the Stump Cross flowstone gave elevated 13C not explicable by the plant communities present, nor were high enough to have a non-biogenic source. Further investigations are needed, but this evidence suggests caution in interpreting 13C records for flowstones. An annual signal of growth rate and growth rate variability was obtained from ultra-violet microscopic analysiS of luminescent banding within speleothems. Banding was demonstrated to be annual by mass spectrometric uranium-series dating, but was only preserved In 10% of a" samples. Variability of growth rate for the Holocene Sutherland stalagmite was compared to the theoretical annual variability of growth rate derived from annual variations in the growth rate determining variables observed today, and a good agreement was observed. Furthermore, for one period of growth, a 4-5 year period of rapid growth rate was demonstrated to correlate with the Hekla 3volcanic eruption in Iceland.
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Page, Erin Elizabeth. "The Rate of Team Performance Change over Time." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/4968.
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This study examined the growth patterns of action teams over time. Cognitive and non-cognitive (i.e., motivational) team composition variables were hypothesized to differentially predict initial levels of and changes over time in team performance. In order to test the hypotheses 78 two-person teams flew three equivalent missions on a low-fidelity computer-based Apache helicopter simulator. Random Coefficient Modeling analyses indicated that, as expected, team composition of general cognitive ability positively predicted initial team performance, whereas team composition of motivational traits did not. However, none of the team composition variables predicted team performance change. Implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.
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Scheithauer, Jan. "On interest rate dynamics and change in persistence /." Aachen : Shaker, 2008. http://d-nb.info/991378970/04.
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Lim, Dong-Joon. "Technological Forecasting Based on Segmented Rate of Change." PDXScholar, 2015. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2220.
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Consider the following questions in the early stage of new product development. What should be the target market for proposed design concepts? Who will be the competitors and how fast are they moving forward in terms of performance improvements? Ultimately, is the current design concept and targeted launch date feasible and competitive?
To answer these questions, there is a need to integrate the product benchmarking with the assessment of performance improvement so that analysts can have a risk measure for their R&D target setting practices. Consequently, this study presents how time series benchmarking analysis can be used to assist scheduling new product releases. Specifically, the proposed model attempts to estimate the "auspicious" time by which proposed design concepts will be available as competitive products by taking into account the rate of performance improvement expected in a target segment.
The empirical illustration of commercial airplane development has shown that this new method provides valuable information such as dominating designs, distinct segments, and the potential rate of performance improvement, which can be utilized in the early stage of new product development. In particular, six dominant airplanes are identified with corresponding local RoCs and, inter alia, technological advancement toward long-range and wide-body airplanes represents very competitive segments of the market with rapid changes. The resulting individualized RoCs are able to estimate the arrivals of four different design concepts, which is consistent with what has happened since 2007 in commercial airplane industry.
In addition, the case study of the Exascale supercomputer development is presented to demonstrate the predictive use of the new method. The results indicate that the current development target of 2020 might entail technical risks considering the rate of change emphasizing power efficiency observed in the past. It is forecasted that either a Cray-built hybrid system using Intel processors or an IBM-built Blue Gene architecture system using PowerPC processors will likely achieve the goal between early 2021 and late 2022. This indicates that the challenge to improve the power efficiency by a factor of 23 would require the maximum delay of 4 years to reach the Exascale supercomputer compared to the existing performance curve.
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Mtonga, Elvis. "Regimes change and exchange rate dynamics : the rand." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5734.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references (p. 186-206).
The rand has since the mid-1980s maintained a long swing of decline that reversed in 2002 for a brief while; resuming the swing shortly thereafter. In contrast to these fairly predictable fluctuations, the rand’s short run movements are increasingly volatile and seemingly unpredictable. Anchored in the asset approach to exchange rate determination, this study examines the two issues of the long run and short run exchange rate dynamics of the rand.
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Zeileis, Achim, Ajay Shah, and Ila Patnaik. "Exchange Rate Regime Analysis Using Structural Change Methods." Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2007. http://epub.wu.ac.at/386/1/document.pdf.
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Regression models for de facto currency regime classification are complemented by inferential techniques for tracking the stability of exchange rate regimes. Several structural change methods are adapted to these regressions: tools for assessing the stability of exchange rate regressions in historical data (testing), in incoming data (monitoring) and for determining the breakpoints of shifts in the exchange rate regime (dating). The tools are illustrated by investigating the Chinese exchange rate regime after China gave up on a fixed exchange rate to the US dollar in 2005 and to track the evolution of the Indian exchange rate regime since 1993.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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Balci, Ceyda. "Conceptual Change Text Oriented Instruction To Facilitate Conceptual Change In Rate Of Reaction Concepts." Master's thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12607815/index.pdf.
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The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of conceptual change text oriented instruction accompanied with analogies over traditionally designed chemistry instruction on overcoming 10th grade students&rsquomisconceptions, their understanding of rate of reaction concepts and their attitude towards chemistry as a school subject. 42 tenth grade students from two classes of a chemistry course taught by the same teacher at a public high school in Ç
anakkale involved in the study. The study was carried out in Spring Semester of 2005-2006 Education Year. Two groups of students participated in the study. One group was called Experimental Group and instructed with conceptual change texts oriented instruction accompanied with analogies and the other group was called Control Group and was instructed with traditionally designed chemistry instruction over a period of four weeks. To investigate the effectiveness of the treatment, Rate of Reaction Concepts Test and Attitude Scale Towards Chemistry as a school subject were administered to both groups of students at the beginning and at the end of the treatment period. To evaluate students&rsquo
science process skills, Science Process Skills Test was administered to both groups of students before the treatment. MANCOVA was used to test the hypothesis of the study. The results of the study indicated that students instructed with conceptual change texts oriented instruction accompanied with analogies gained higher average scores in Rate of Reaction Concepts Test than the students instructed with traditionally designed chemistry instruction. Results and strategies that were developed for the present study may be used by science teachers to reduce and eliminate students&rsquo
misconceptions about rate of reaction concepts.
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Bozkoyun, Yasin. "Facilitating Conceptual Change In Learning Rate Of Reaction Concepts." Master's thesis, METU, 2004. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12605284/index.pdf.
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The main aim of this study to investigate the effectiveness of conceptual change texts oriented instruction accompanied with analogies over traditionally designed chemistry instruction on overcoming 10th grade students’
misconceptions, their understanding of rate of reaction concepts and attitude towards chemistry as a school subject. 56 tenth grade students from two classes of a chemistry course taught by the same teacher in the ATATÜ
RK Anatolian High school, participated in the study. This study was carried out in 2003-2004 spring semester. There were two groups in the study. Experimental group was instructed with conceptual change texts oriented instruction accompanied with analogies and the control group was instructed by traditionally designed chemistry instruction over a period of four weeks. To investigate the effect of treatment, Rate of Reaction Concepts Test and Attitude Scale Toward Chemistry as a school subject were administered to all students in both groups at the beginning and end of the treatment. To evaluate students&
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science process skills, Science Process Skills Test was administered before treatment. To test the hypothesis of the study ANOVA and ANCOVA were used. The result of the study showed that students in conceptual change texts oriented instruction accompanied with analogies got higher average scores in Rate of Reaction Concepts Test than traditionally designed chemistry instruction. Also, students in experimental group indicated a higher positive attitude toward chemistry as a school subject. In addition, science process skill was a strong predictor for the achievement related to rate of reaction concepts. Results and strategies that were developed for this study may be used by teachers to reduce and eliminate students&
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misconceptions about the rate of reaction concepts.
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Scheithauer, Jan [Verfasser]. "On Interest Rate Dynamics and Change in Persistence / Jan Scheithauer." Aachen : Shaker, 2008. http://d-nb.info/1161307370/34.
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Liu, Tze Yong. "Rheology of semisolid alloys under rapid change in shear rate." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2002. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/15036/.
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Industrial thixoforming processes are carried out within a second. Characterisation of the rheological behaviour of the semisolid metal slurry during this short space of time is therefore important. Rheological experiments were carried out on Sn 15%Pb alloy (fraction solid 0.2-0.5) in a HAAKE cylindrical rotational viscometer using ~ 1 kHz data collection rate to obtain the shear stress response to a rapid change in shear rate. Results and conclusions based on them are valid over a limited range of 0 s·I-200 S·l. The slurry undergoes an initial rapid structural breakdown during a jump upwards in shear rate, followed by a more gradual breakdown. The former occurs within a second of the start of the jump. The metal slurry breaks down more rapidly with a higher final shear rate, but is independent of the initial shear rate. The reverse is found with downward jumps in shear rate: recovery times increase with increasing final shear rate. Again, it is independent of the starting shear rate. The rheological behaviour of aluminium alloys with solid fraction >0.5 at 1 to 100 s'\ was studied by rapidly compressing cylindrical slugs against a load cell. The slurry exhibits a near-Newtonian behaviour at the thixoforming temperature, after an appropriate soaking time is employed and a near-spheroidal microstructure develops. Use of image analysis to quantify the spheroidicity indicates that particle shape affects the flow of the slurry, a higher spheroidicity corresponding to a lower load. Using solid-state mechanical deformation to break up the dendrites, produces thixoforming feedstock with lower resistance to flow than magnetohydrodynamic stirring. Power law index values were obtained for both rapid compression and viscometry experiments. Results from this work have shown the importance of understanding the rheological behaviour of a semisolid slurry in the transient state.
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Schulze, Stephan. "Design and implementation of a STANAG 5066 data rate change algorithm for high data rate autobaud waveforms." Diss., Pretoria : [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-01242006-094908.
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Wan, Liping. "Output’s Response to Change in Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from China." Thesis, KTH, Samhällsekonomi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-98983.
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Aladool, Azzam Salahuddin Younus. "Investigation of crystallization dynamics in phase-change material using the Master rate equation at ultrafast heating rates." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/29434.
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Phase-change materials are widely used in non-volatile computer memories, and in arithmetic and logic processing applications. Phase-change based devices are also required to operate at different and high heating rates in response to electrical or optical excitations to achieve the required read-write rates. Crystallization is a fundamental and complex process involved in the phase transition operation in phase-change materials. It is sensitive to the nature of the phase-change material, its thermodynamic and kinetic parameters, geometric and interface effects, and thermal history. Thus, crystallization is the time limiting process in phase-change technologies. This work is concerned with theoretically understanding the crystallization dynamics of the Ge2Sb2Te5 (GST) phase-change material under different heating regimes and at the micro-structure level of the material to reduce crystallization times and increase the operating speed of phase-change devices and memories. A review and comparison of crystallization models was carried out to distinguish the more physically realistic Master rate equation method's ability to naturally trace both the nucleation and growth processes during crystallization, through the attachment and detachment of monomers to calculate the distribution of nano-cluster size distributions necessary to achieve the aims of this research. Full mathematical derivations and numerical implementation details of both the original discrete form of the Master rate equation and its approximate form were provided. Error analysis and computational experiments illustrated the limitations of the approximate form of the rate equation, and its detrimental sensitivity to the model parameters to justify the use of the discrete rate equation throughout this work. The crystallization rate is a strong function of the material's viscosity, and hence the physically realistic Mauro−Yue−Ellison−Gupta−Allan (MYEGA) model of the temperature dependence of viscosity was implemented in the Master rate equation. Crystallization simulations were carried out under ramped annealing conditions with heating rates from 50 K/s to 40,000 K/s to study the role of the viscosity model parameters (including the fragility index, glass transition temperature, and infinite temperature viscosity) on the crystallization dynamics. Those simulations showed, for high and low heating rates, the influence of the increasing fragility index on reducing the cluster nucleation time and increasing the crystallization speeds. Moreover, the increase of the glass transition temperature made a corresponding shift in crystallization temperature towards higher values. Furthermore, at low heating rates, infinite temperature viscosity parameter (i.e. extrapolated value of viscosity at temperature = ∞) has negligible effect on the crystallization dynamics while, at higher heating rates, smaller values of infinite temperature viscosity parameter increase the crystallization rate and final crystalline volume. Due to the relatively low computational cost of the Master rate equation method (compared to atomistic level computations), an iterative numerical algorithm was developed to fit Kissinger plots simulated with the Master rate equation system to experimental Kissinger plots from ultrafast calorimetry measurements at increasing heating rates. The simulations and analysis revealed the strong coupling between the glass transition temperature and fragility index, and highlighted the often ignored role of the dependence of the glass transition temperature on heating rate for the accurate estimation of the fragility index from analysis of experimental measurements. The extracted fragility indices in this work were lower than published values, highlighting the limitations of existing methods of extracting the viscosity parameters (using oversimplified analytical models with disparity in model parameters), and the importance of using detailed crystallization models for analysis of experimental measurements. Moreover, and for the first time, the variation of glass transition temperature with heating rate for GST was extracted from Kissinger measurements, in agreement with the values reported in the literature. The influence of the preparation conditions of amorphous GST on the crystallization dynamics was theoretically investigated using the Master rate equation by systematically implementing initial distributions of cluster sizes resulting from different thermal treatments such as melt-quenching and pre-annealing, and theoretical Gaussian initial cluster size distributions. Simulations of ramped pre-annealing to temperatures much lower than the crystallization temperature showed distributions of nano-clusters sizes of 2 - 8 nm in agreement with recently published high-resolution transmission electron microscopy measurements. Furthermore, the simulations explicitly showed the marked decrease in crystallization temperature (and therefore increase in crystallization speed) when there is predominately a narrow distribution of smaller crystalline clusters embedded in the initial amorphous phase.
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De, Achàval Muñoz Fabiàn. "Essays on exchange rate policy, macroeconomic volatility and inequality in Latin America." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009EVRY0005.
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Cette thèse est consacrée à l’étude des politiques de change, la volatilité macroéconomique et l’inégalité en Amérique Latine. Reconnue comme une région avec une grande tendance à souffrir des crises monétaires, l’Amérique Latine est aussi extrêmement volatile et la région la plus inégale au monde. D’autre part, et peut être comme conséquence des aspects déjà signalés, ces économies montrent des forts imperfections du marché. Cette recherche prend en compte ces facteurs pour essayer de déterminer s’il existe une rationnelle pour l’intervention des gouvernements dans l’économie, soit pour assurer l’optimalité économique, soit pour des considérations sociales. Cette thèse est divisée en deux parties. La première partie se centre dans la politique monétaire optimale aux pays émergents, en considérant deux caractéristiques majeures de ces économies : le mismatch monétaire et le pass-through du taux de change élevé. Le premier chapitre analyse les bases théoriques du "fear of floating", phénomène qui a été considéré comme caractéristique aux régimes de change des économies Latino-Américaines. On montre que la littérature existante a identifié les circonstances sous lesquelles la politique monétaire optimale limite la volatilité des taux de change. Le deuxième chapitre étudie l’arbitrage auquel font face les économies émergentes en base au pass-through du taux de change et au marché du travail non-walrasien. Tout cela, du point de vue de la politique monétaire optimale. La deuxième partie analyse les effets de la volatilité macroéconomique sur l’inégalité. Le troisième chapitre fait une revue de la littérature existante, tant de manière théorique comme empirique. Finalement, le quatrième chapitre observe le rôle du secteur informel dans un modèle de trois agents, pour essayer d’arriver à une conclusion sur les liens entre volatilité et inégalité. On montre que cette nouvelle voie peut arriver à défier l’opinion communément admise et que les pauvres ne sont pas toujours les plus affectés par la volatilitéThis thesis is a collection of four essays on exchange rate policies, macroeconomic volatility and inequality in Latin America. Known to be a currency crises-prone region, Latin America is also highly volatile and the most unequal region of the world. On the other hand, and perhaps as a consequence of the above, these economies exhibit strong market failures. My research takes into account these factors in order to determine if there is a rationale for the intervention of the government in the economy be it for the sake of economic optimality or for social considerations. This research is divided in two parts. The first part focuses on optimal monetary policy in emerging markets in the light of two main economic characteristics of these economies: the currency mismatch and a high inflation pass-through. The first chapter addresses the theoretical foundations of the "fear of floating" which has been observed to characterize Latin American economies’ exchange rate regimes. We show that the literature has identified circumstances under which optimal monetary policy limits exchange rate volatility. The second chapter assesses the trade-off faced by developing economies in the light of exchange rate pass-through and a non-Walrasian labor market from an optimal monetary policy perspective. The second part analyses the effects of macroeconomic volatility on inequality. The third charter reviews the literature both theoretically and empirically. Finally, the fourth chapter examines in a three-agents model the role on the informal sector to explain the link between volatility and inequality. We show that this new channel may challenge the conventional wisdom and that the poor are not necessarily worst-off
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Bajwa, Ishtiaq Ahmad. "Oral intervention and de facto exchange rate regime in Pakistan." Thesis, Aix-Marseille 2, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010AIX24028.
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Notre thèse vise deux domaines inter reliés des marchés taux de change en se référant particulièrement à un marché émergent qui est le Pakistan. Ces domaines sont le rôle et l'efficacité de l'intervention orale sur le marché des changes étrangers et le régime "de facto" adopté par le pays. Nous avons collecté une base de données complète des rapports, des communiqués de presse fournis par des autorités pakistanaises et d'autres informations, qui pourraient affecter le taux de change de la roupie pakistanaise contre le dollar US. Pour étudier l'efficacité de la stratégie d'intervention orale de l'autorité monétaire pakistanaise, nous avons appliqué l'approche d'étude d'évènement couramment utilisée dans la littérature. Nous avons analysé les effets des évènements de l'intervention orale en utilisant un test de signe non-paramétrique basé sur différents critères d'évaluation. Cette efficacité a été observée sur le niveau et la volatilité du taux de change sur le marché de changes officiel. Toutefois, cette thèse présente un aspect intéressant qui concerne le fait que nous avons également examiné les effets des évènements d'une intervention orale sur le prix de change au marché parallèle. L'approche mentionnée ci-dessus a été employée pour examiner les effets de l'intervention orale sur la prime, le taux et la volatilité du marché parallèle. La thèse étudie également le régime de facto du taux de change du Pakistan. Pour étudier le régime de facto du taux de change de ce pays, nous avons utilisé un panier de devises et nous nous sommes placé dans un contexte de "exchange market pressure". Nous avons également examiné l'impact de deux ensembles différents de devises (régional et du Moyen-Orient) sur la roupie pakistanaise. Enfin, le modèle structural de Bai et de Perron a été appliqué pour obtenir la coupure de la série de données de l'échantillon. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que l'intervention orale demeure efficace pour le niveau et la volatilité du taux de change sur le marché de changes officiel. Un résultat intéressant ressort de cette étude qui stipule que les efforts d'une intervention orale sont également réussis; ils permettent d'influencer la prime et la volatilité du marché parallèle dans le sens désiré. La comparaison entre les régimes de change suivis par le pays, de jure ( flottant contrôlé) ou de facto (fixé par rapport au dollar), révèle des disparités pour une grande partie de la période d'étudeThe thesis targets two inter related areas of the foreign exchange market with special references to an emerging economy, Pakistan. These areas are the role and effectiveness of oral intervention in the foreign exchange market and de facto exchange rate regime followed by the country. We collected a comprehensive database of statements, press releases by paskistani authorities and other news, which could affect the exchange rate of the pakistani rupee against the US dollar. We applied the event stydy approach , widely used in the available literature, to investigate the effectiveness of the oral intervention strategy of pakistani monetary authority. We analyzed the effects of the oral intervention events using a non-parametric sign test based on different evaluation criteria. This effectiveness was observed on the exchange rate level and volatility in the official currency market. Whereas, an interesting aspect of the thesis is that we also examined the affects of these oral inetrvention events on the exchange rate of the parallele currency market. The aforementioned approach was used to examined the affects of the oral intervention on the parallel market premium, rate and volatility. The thesis also investigated the de facto exchange rate regime of Pakistan. We used the "currency basket" and "exchange market pressure" framework to investigate the de facto exchange rate regime of the country. The impact of two different sets of currencies (i.e. regional and Middle Eastern) was also observed on the pakistani rupee. Finally, the Bai and Perron structural break model was applied to obtain the break points in the sample data. The results obtained indicate that the oral intervention remained effective for both the exchange rate level and volatility in the official currency market. Interestingly, these oral intervention efforts wrere also successful in influencing the parallel market premium and volatility in the desired direction. Regarding the exchange rate regime followed by the country, a gap was observed in the de jure (managed float) and de facto (dollar peg) exchange rate regime of the country for most part of the sample period covered
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Chacon, Aguilar Ana Gloria. "Oil prices and the CAD / USD exchange rate." Thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2013/30231/30231.pdf.
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Ce mémoire étudie la relation entre les prix du pétrole et de l’énergie et le taux de change CAD/USD au moyen d’un modèle à correction d’erreur étroitement lié à l’équation du taux de change de la Banque du Canada. Une rupture structurelle se produit dans la relation entre les prix du pétrole et de l’énergie et le taux de change CAD/USD lorsque ce dernier est à parité. Par conséquent, un modèle à correction d’erreur est utilisé pour estimer le taux de change CAD/USD en intégrant l’effet de la parité par rapport à la non-parité dans l’équation de prévision. En outre, la sensibilité de l’équation du taux de change varie selon la présence ou l’absence de parité. Plus précisément, lorsque la parité est atteinte, le taux de change CAD/USD a moins tendance à répondre aux changements de prix du pétrole et de l’énergie.This thesis studies the relationship between oil and energy prices with the CAD/USD exchange rate using an error correction model closely linked with the Bank of Canada’s exchange rate equation. A structural break occurs in the relationship between oil and energy prices and the CAD/USD exchange rate when this latter is at parity. Accordingly, an error correction model is employed to estimate the CAD/USD exchange rate by incorporating the effect of parity versus non-parity in the forecasting equation. Moreover, the sensitivity of the exchange rate equation shifts in the presence of parity versus the absence of parity. More precisely, when parity occurs, the CAD/USD exchange rate responds less to changes in oil and energy prices.
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Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou. "EXCHANGE RATE POLICY AND PRODUCTIVITY." Phd thesis, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00997038.
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Cette thèse étudie comment le taux de change effectif réel (TCER) et ses mesures associées (volatilité du TCER et désalignement du TCER) affectent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs (CPTF). Elle analyse également les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées agissent sur la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF). La première partie étudie comment le TCER lui-même, d'une part, et la volatilité du TCER, d'autre part, influencent la productivité. Une analyse du lien entre le niveau du TCER et la PTF dans le chapitre 1 indique qu'une appréciation de taux de change cause une augmentation de la PTF. Mais cet impact est également non-linéaire: en-dessous du seuil, le TCER influence négativement la productivité tandis qu'au-dessus du seuil il agit positivement. Les résultats du chapitre 2 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER affecte négativement la CPTF. Nous avons également constaté que la volatilité du TCER agit sur PTF selon le niveau du développement financier. Pour les pays modérément financièrement développés, la volatilité du TCER réagit négativement sur la productivité et n'a aucun effet sur la productivité pour les niveaux très bas et très élevés du développement financier. La deuxième partie examine les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées influencent la productivité. Les résultats du chapitre 3 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER a un impact négatif élevé sur l'investissement. Ces résultats sont robustes dans les pays à faible revenu et les pays à revenu moyens, et en employant une mesure alternative de volatilité du TCER. Le chapitre 4 montre que le désalignement du taux de change réel et la volatilité du taux de change réel affectent négativement les exportations. Il démontre également que la volatilité du taux de change réel est plus nocive aux exportations que le désalignement. Ces résultats sont corroborés par des résultats sur des sous-échantillons de pays à bas revenu et à revenu moyen.
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Essam, Selim Hoda. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate regimes in a small open economy : an empirical assessment for Egypt." Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011IEPP0058.
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Le ciblage d’inflation (CI) a connu ses débuts dans les années 1990s. Sa théorie, apparue plus tard, admet que la politique monétaire réagisse aux fluctuations de change, à condition que ces fluctuations aient une influence sur la cible d’inflation. Pourtant, cette conclusion ne paraît pas bien adaptée aux économies émergentes (EMEs) dont pratique s’est écartée de ce modèle traditionnel, notamment en ce qui concerne la gestion du taux de change. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc de revoir le rôle du taux de change dans un régime de CI dans les EMEs. Prenant l’Egypte comme étude de cas, le but est d’évaluer si le taux de change pose une contrainte à la mise en place du CI et si oui pour quelles raisons. Deux facteurs qui pourraient justifier une gestion du taux de change sont examinés empiriquement: les désalignements du taux de change et l’impact de ses variations (le pass-through) sur l’inflation. D’autres questions abordées portent sur le rôle des interventions stérilisées avec des taux de change flexibles, le phénomène de la “peur du flottement”, l’estimation des régimes de change de facto et l’usage des règles monétaires pour gérer le taux de change. Cette recherche démontre que la Banque Centrale d’Egypte continue à intervenir (à la fois par les réserves de change et les taux d’intérêt) pour limiter les variations du taux de change même après l’abandon de la cible de change en 2003. Ce comportement est justifiable car les désalignements du taux de change sont persistants et le pass-through à l’inflation de l’IPC est élevé et croissantInflation targeting (IT) was introduced in the early 1990s. IT theory, emerged years later, and allows a response to the exchange rate, only insofar as the latter affects the inflation forecast. However, this conclusion does not seem well-adapted to EMEs who departed from the conventional IT regime by giving a large place to the exchange rate. The objective of this thesis is to revisit the role of the exchange rate under IT in EMEs. In the case of Egypt, the aim is to study whether the exchange rate would constrain IT implementation and why. In particular, the thesis empirically explores nominal exchange misalignments and exchange rate pass-through to inflation as possible rationales for exchange rate management. Additional issues are explored like the scope of sterilized intervention under floating regimes, “fear of floating” and estimating de facto exchange rate regimes. The results show that the Central Bank of Egypt continues to limit exchange changes, despite abandoning the exchange rate target in 2003. This is because nominal exchange rate misalignments tend to be persistent and the exchange rate pass-through to CPI inflation is large and increasing. This should not be an obstacle to IT since exchange rate management would be the means to low inflation. In due time, reforms and credibility gains should lead to a low inflationary environment, improve the workings of the flexible exchange rate regime and be conducive to less erratic exchange rate fluctuations with adverse domestic repercussions
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Gajic, Tijana. "Change in Thermal Metabolic Rate Reaction Norms of Daphnia in Response to Rearing Temperature." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for biologi, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-23299.
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Temperature is an important environmental factor that affects the distribution of organisms. It affects the biochemical and physiological processes which are the basis of life. The metabolic cold adaptation (MCA) hypothesis predicts an increase in the metabolic rate of ectotherms from cold environments compared with their more temperate counterparts. This hypothesis is one of the most controversial in ecophysiology. MCA is an example of counter gradient variation, a geographical pattern of genotypes where genetic influences on a trait oppose environmental influences. Environmental gradients are common in nature and are considered to have major effects on intraspecific variation patterns. In this study, I tested the MCA hypothesis at an intraspecific level. As a study model I utilized the water flea, Daphnia magna. These are planktonic crustaceans, common in lakes and ponds, and have a wide geographical and thermal distribution. I tested the MCA hypothesis in a laboratory experiment in which oxygen consumption of water fleas reared at three different temperatures for one year (12 ? 35 generations), were measured at three different experimental temperatures. My results show that the animals from the coldest rearing temperature (10 °C) had the highest metabolism at all three experimental temperatures (10, 17 and 25 °C), compared with animals reared at higher temperatures (17 and 25 °C). Elevated metabolism in animals from cold environment is consistent with the metabolic cold adaptation hypothesis. The present study does however not provide conclusive evidence that clone-specific variation in thermal performance has a genetic basis. Organisms may adjust their thermal reaction norms as a response to the thermal regime in which they live through three mechanisms: acclimation, epigenetic effects and evolution, and these could not be distinguished in experimental design used here.
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Goicoechea, Saioa, and Patricia López. "Modeling the air change rate in a naturally ventilated historical church : MultipleLinear Regression analysis." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Akademin för teknik och miljö, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-13640.
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In this thesis the air infiltration through the envelope of a naturally ventilated stone church located in Bergby (Gävle, Sweden) is studied. The project is focused on Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) modeling the air change rate (ACH) inside the church hall and studying the factors (stack effect and wind effect) that influence the air infiltration. The weather parameters outside the building were recorded in a weather station and the properties of the air inside the church was analyzed with different methods. Infrared thermography techniques and thermistors were used to measure the temperature inside, the tracer gas method to measure the ACH and the blower door technique to measure the tightness of the building envelope. In order to know the pressure coefficients on the church envelope a physical model of the building was studied in a wind tunnel. Firstly, only the values obtained from the weather station were used to calculate the predictors of ACH and see which parameter influence more on its variation: temperature difference (∆T) indicating the stack effect; and wind speed (WS), the component of wind speed perpendicular to the long-side facades of the church (WS90) and their square values (WS2 and WS902) indicating the wind effect. The data obtained in the wind tunnel were later used to do the MLR study with new predictors for indicating wind effect (∆Cp∙WS, ∆Cp∙WS2, ∆CpOUT-IN·A∙WS, ∆CpOUT-IN·A∙WS2, ∆CpC-H∙WS, ∆CpC-H∙WS2). Better prediction of ACH was obtained with the square of the wind speed (WS2) instead of the magnitude itself (WS). However, the latter (WS) provided better results than the regression with the magnitude of the perpendicular component of the wind (WS90). Although wind speed influences in ACH, it alone seems to be a very poor predictor of ACH since has a negative correlation with ΔT when the data under study include both day and night. However when high wind speed are detected it has quite strong influence. The most significant predictions of ACR were attained with the combined predictors ∆T & WS and ∆T & ∆CpOUT-IN·A∙WS2. The main conclusion taken from the MLR analysis is that the stack effect is the most significant factor influencing the ACH inside the church hall. This leads to suggest that an effective way of reducing ACH could be sealing the floor and ceiling of the church because from those areas the air infiltration has big influence on the ACH inside the church hall, and more in this case that have been noted that the floor is very leaky. Although different assumptions have been done during the analyses that contribute to make the predictions deviate from reality, at the end it would be possible to asses that MLR can be a useful tool for analyzing the relative importance of the driving forces for ACR in churches and similar buildings, as long as the included predictors not are too mutually correlated, and that attained models that are statistically significant also are physically realistic.Church project
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Reister, Brandlynn N. "The Effect of Rate Change on the Relative Timing of Speakers with Multiple Sclerosis." Scholar Commons, 2013. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4753.
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Relative timing ratios are a useful measure for determining the temporal regularities of speech. The timing intervals that make up these ratios are thought to be important when creating the motor plan for an utterance (Weismer & Fennell, 1985). In fact, these ratios have been shown to be remarkably stable, even when speakers deliberately increase their rate (Tuller & Kelso, 1984; Weismer & Fennell, 1985). The constancy of these ratios also has been demonstrated in speakers with known speech timing disturbances, like the dysarthrias associated with Parkinson's and Huntington's disease (Goberman & McMillan; Ludlow, Connor, & Bassich, 1987; Weismer & Fennell, 1985), apraxia (Weismer & Fennell, 1985), and stuttering (Prosek, Montgomery, & Walden, 1988). However, a slowed rate of speech has been noted to induce variability in relative timing (Clark, 1995). The current investigation was designed to further investigate the impact of a slow rate on relative timing, as well as the impact of a different type of dysarthria on the production of these ratios.
Eleven participants with MS and ten healthy controls participated. After screening the participants with MS for cognitive abilities and degree of dysathria, they produced four sentences at three different rates of speech: conversational, fast, and slow. Age-matched controls only provided the rate-controlled sentences. Relative timing ratios were extracted and an analysis of variance was conducted for each sentence to note the effects of speech rate, ratio type, and speaker condition on relative timing.
The results revealed that relative timing was not constant in the slow rate for any of the participants. The noted variability in slow speech was attributed to vowel characteristics and sentence length. Finally, people with MS demonstrated larger relative timing ratios than their healthy peers when producing lengthier or motorically complex sentences.
Consistent with previous research (Clark, 1995), these results indicated that relative timing ratios were not constant when rate was slowed. Hence, use of a reduced rate may have triggered the critical change required to alter relative timing. This difference may also correspond to a topological shift in the cortical planning of the utterance. These findings provide support for the use of slowed speech in the treatment of dysarthria and other speech timing disorders. It may be that slowed speech allows the speaker to access a motor plan better suited to his impaired muscular system.
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Kim, Soon-Chul. "Foreign exchange rate change and selected U.S. import prices over 1989:1-2000:6 /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3012988.
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Nadler, Wayne Peter. "Valued moments of therapeutic movement and change distribution, rate of occurrence, sequences, and covariation." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/5111.
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El, Bejaoui Hayet jihene. "Essays on exchange rate pass-through : the role of asymmetries and trade globalisation." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015USPCD025/document.
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Cette thèse explore la transmission des variations du taux de change sur les prix d’exportation et d’importation à un niveau agrégé et désagrégé pour quatre pays développés. Nous utilisons plusieurs méthodes économétriques récentes afin de fournir des mesures robustes sur la transmission du taux change. Notre recherche soutient la présence d’asymétrie dans la transmission des variations du taux de change sur les prix. En outre, nous constatons que le coefficient de transmission est plus élevé lorsqu’on tient compte de cette asymétrie. Par conséquent, la non prise en compte de ces asymétries, si elles existent, pourrait conduire à des résultats trompeurs. Ce résultat a d’importantes implications sur les politiques monétaires. En effet, les décideurs devront faire face à un dilemme lorsqu'ils doivent choisir entre la stabilité des prix et la compétitivité-prix à l'exportation. De plus, dans cette recherche, nous testons si le degré d’ouverture affecte le degré de report du taux de change. Les résultats montrent, que dans la plupart des cas, il n'y a pas de rôle significatif pour le degré d'ouvertureThis thesis explores the transmission of exchange rate movements into export and import prices at both the aggregate and the disaggregate level for four advanced countries. We use several up-to-date econometric methods in order to provide robust measures of exchange rate pass-through. The main finding of our research is to provide clear support for the presence of asymmetry in the exchange rate pass-through, i.e. the fact that appreciations and depreciations are pass through prices in a different magnitude. Moreover, we find that, in many cases, the pass-through coefficient is higher when we take into account this asymmetry. Therefore not taking into account potential asymmetries may lead to wrong results in the ERPT estimation. This finding has several important implications for monetary policy. Indeed, policy-makers will face a dilemma as they try to pursue price stability and export competitiveness. Moreover, our research also studies whether the degree of trade openness affects the exchange rate pass-through. The results in this case show that there is no significant role for the degree of trade openness for most cases
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JORANDER, FRIDÉN EMELIE, and MARTIN HOLMGREN. "Managing commitment to change - How to increase the success rate of change initiatives : An investigation of formal and informal leaders’ perception of how to develop commitmentto organizational change." Thesis, KTH, Organisation och ledning, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-189454.
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Although there exist numerous academic and practical theories and models regarding the subject of change management, research shows that 70 percent of all change initiatives fail to reach its objectives. One suggested reason for the failure rate is that there are not enough focus on the individuals in a change process. The individuals’ journey through change is a core process and developing commitment to change among individuals is suggested to increase the success rate of organizational changes. Moreover, the AEC industry (architecture, engineering, and construction) has undergone large technical advancements during the last decades, and the method of working with BIM (building information modeling) has affected the industry worldwide. Therefore, there is a need and desire for organizations to adapt to the changing industry and implement new work practices. Consequently, it is important to involve individuals in the change process and make them commit to the organizational changes. The objective of this investigation is to research leaders’ perception of how to create commitment to change among individuals. A case study with a qualitative approach was used in order to conduct the investigation. Interviews were performed with two groups of leaders, formal and informal leaders, in order to investigate the two groups’ perception of the process of developing commitment to change among individuals. The empirical material were later on analyzed and quantified in order to detect differences in perception between the two different groups. In large, the result showed that the role of the leader, clear leadership and the communication between change leaders and change recipients are important aspects to consider in the change process, and the process of creating commitment to change. Furthermore, the participants in this study recognized the individual as the core entity of the change process and the process of developing commitment to change. Also, a difference in perception was noticed between formal and informal leaders. The formal leaders showed, in general, a deeper understanding of the process of creating commitment to change and the different activities included in that process.
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Lenepa, Kefuoehape Evodia. "Student choice : what factors and conditions influence University of the Western Cape undergraduate students' change of programmes of study." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2008. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_2002_1318920440.
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The main aim of the study was to investigate change of programmes of study at University of the Western Cape (UWC). This involved examining the extent, nature and possible range of factors which shape change of programmes. The factors influencing choice to study at UWC and choice of programmes formed the background for understanding the link between choice and change of programmes. The study focused on first-time entering undergraduates in selected faculties: Arts, Economics and Management Sciences (EMS) and Community and Health Sciences (CHS). The progression âpathwaysâ of these students were tracked from first year of enrolment in 2001 to 2004. The findings of the longitudinal data showed that the percentage of students who changed their programmes in the Faculty of Arts and in CHS was very minimal. In total 5% changed their programmes in CHS in three-year programmes while in four-year programmes only 2% changed their programmes. In the Faculty of Arts in three-year and four-year programmes change of programmes ranged from 6% to 10%. The significant change of programmes of study happened in EMS which also had the highest enrolments. In total 18% of the students changed their programmes. It appeared from the statistical data that failure and academic exclusion could be associated with change of programmes of study. Other factors such as financial problems, poor grouping of courses, exploring and changing to preferred programmes as well came out from the interviews as major influences of change of programmes.
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Henker, Richard. "PNEUMATIC ARTIFICIAL HEART DRIVER PARAMETER EFFECTS ON THE RATE OF PRESSURE CHANGE ((+) DP/DT MAX)." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/276466.
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The aim of the research was to investigate the effects of three parameters of the artificial heart on the (+) dP/dt max. The study was conducted using a mock circulation which was connected to an artificial heart. The data were collected using the COMDU software developed for the computer which monitors the artificial heart. Stepwise regression analysis was utilized to test the three hypotheses. Two of the null hypotheses for the study could not be rejected, as the independent variable did not significantly affect (+) dP/dt max. Although the third hypothesis was accepted, the results were not clinically significant. Limitations in the study were multicollinearity among the independent variables, small sample size, and the inability of the mock circulation to represent human responses.
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Mouradian, Florence. "Exposition au taux de change et stratégies d'entreprises." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED006/document.
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L'objectif de cette thèse est double. Premièrement, elle vise à proposer une revue de la littérature économique s'intéressant à l'exposition au taux de change de la profitabilité des entreprises non-financières, et à fournir de nouveaux enseignements sur son hétérogénéité intra et inter-sectorielle. Deuxièmement, cette thèse analyse les stratégies de production et de produits mises en œuvre par les firmes pour se prémunir des effets de ces variations de change. Puisque l'éventail de telles stratégies est large, le dernier chapitre se concentre sur la stratégie de montée en gammeThis thesis follows a dual objective. First, it aims to summarize previous evidence on the magnitude and channels underpinning a non-financial firm’s operating exposure, i.e. the extent to which currency fluctuations can alter a company's future operating cash flow, and to provide new highlights on the heterogeneity of this exposure across firms. Second, this thesis investigates the product and production strategies that are appropriate for coping with the economic consequences of exchange rate changes on firms’ operating profits. Since the range of these strategies is large, it focuses on providing theoretical and empirical evidence for the strategy of up-market positioning
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Achy, Lahcen. "Exchange rate management and macroeconomic fundamentals: an empirical investigation." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/211605.
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Tastan, Ozgecan. "Effect Of Cooperative Learning Based On Conceptual Change Conditions On Motivation And Understanding Of Reaction Rate." Phd thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12610486/index.pdf.
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The present study mainly focuses on the effect of cooperative learning based on conceptual change conditions to remedy 11th grade students&rsquomisconceptions related to reaction rate. Also, effect of this method on their motivation was investigated. A total of 110 eleventh grade students participated in the study. Two schools in Ankara and two classes being instructed by the same teacher in each school were included in the sample. One of the classes was randomly assigned as a control group instructed by traditional way and the other as an experimental group instructed by cooperative learning based on conceptual change conditions. This study was conducted on 2008-2009 first semester over six weeks. Reaction Rate Concept Test and Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire were administered as pre-test and post-test to measure students&rsquo
understanding of reaction rate, and their motivation. Moreover, Science Process Skill Test was given before instruction to decide whether there was a significant difference between two groups in their science process skills. ANCOVA was used to evaluate the effect of cooperative learning on students&rsquo
understanding of reaction rate. The results indicated that cooperative learning based on conceptual change conditions removed most of students&rsquo
misconceptions about reaction rate concept and resulted in a significantly better understanding of reaction rate than traditional instruction. Furthermore, data reflecting the effect of conceptual change based cooperative learning on students&rsquo
motivation was analyzed by MANOVA. According to the results, cooperative learning based on conceptual change conditions improved intrinsic goal orientation, and self-efficacy for learning and performance.
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Kuster, Jr George Emil. "On the role of student understanding of function and rate of change in learning differential equations." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/71827.
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In this research, I utilize the theoretical perspective Knowledge In Pieces to identify the knowledge resources students utilize while in the process of completing various differential equations tasks. In addition I explore how this utilization changes over the course of a semester, and how resources related to the concepts of function and rate of change supported the students in completing the tasks. I do so using data collected from a series of task-based individual interviews with two students enrolled in separate differential equations courses. The results provide a fine-grained description of the knowledge students consider to be productive with regard to completing various differential equations tasks. Further the analysis resulted in the identification of five ways students interpret differential equations tasks and how these interpretations are related to the knowledge resources students utilize while completing the various tasks. Lastly, this research makes a contribution to mathematics education by illuminating the knowledge concerning function and rate of change students utilize and how this knowledge comes together to support students in drawing connections between differential equations and their solutions, structuring those solutions, and reasoning with relationships present in the differential equations.Ph. D.
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Sangare, Ibrahima. "Essays on exchange rate policies and monetary integration." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015BORD0381/document.
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Cette thèse étudie le choix des régimes de change dans des contextes économiques particuliers. La première partie (Chapitres 1 et 2) considère le cas des petits pays dont les dettes sont libellées en monnaies étrangères et celui d’une région constituée de tels petits pays lorsqu’il existe une similitude dans la composition des paniers définissant leurs taux de change effectifs. La deuxième partie de la thèse (Chapitres 3 et 4) se penche sur la considération des différents régimes de change dans le contexte monétaire de trappe à liquidité comparativement à un environnement monétaire traditionnel. En se basant sur une modélisation théorique de type DSGE, l’économétrie bayésienne et des données de panel, la thèse utilise principalement l’analyse des fonctions de réponses, de bien-être et de désalignements monétaires comme critères de comparaison de plusieurs régimes monétaires alternatifs. Les principaux enseignements de cette thèse se résument ainsi. Le change flexible semble être le meilleur régime pour des petites économies ouvertes comme ceux de l’Asie du Sud-Est. Au niveau régional, il est montré le ciblage effectif conduit à une stabilité des taux de change bilatéraux de la région, une sorte de fixité des taux de change qui ressemblerait à une zone monétaire de facto. Dans le contexte monétaire de trappe à liquidité, on trouve que,contrairement à la croyance commune lors la crise de la zone euro, l’union monétaire est plus performante que des politiques nationales de change flexible. Seule une intervention sur le taux de change nominal pourrait permettre au régime de change indépendant de dominer l’union monétaire. A travers une analyse théorique et empirique de l’effet de la trappe à liquidité sur l’ampleur des désalignements monétaires, il est aussi montré que la contrainte ZLB tend à réduire le désalignement monétaire dans une union monétaire comparativement aux politiques nationales de flottement.Cela plaide en faveur du renforcement de l’intégration monétaire au sein d’une union durant la période de trappe à liquiditéThis thesis investigates the choice of exchange rate regimes in specific economic contexts. The first part of this work (Chapters 1 and 2) considers the case of small open economies with foreign-currency denominated debt and that of a region where there is a similarity among trade-weighted currency baskets of countries. The second part of the thesis (Chapters 3 and 4) focuses on the study of exchange rate regimes and monetary integration in a liquidity trap environment relative to “tranquil” times. Based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and Bayesian and Panel data econometrics, the thesis mainly uses the analyses of impulse responses, welfare and currency misalignments as comparison criteria among alternative currency regimes.The key lessons from this work are summarized as follows. For small open economies heavily in debted in foreign currency, like those of Southeast Asia, the flexible exchange is the best regime, followed by intermediate and fixed exchange rate regimes. At the regional level, it is shown that the exchange rate targeting regime leads to a stability of intra-regional bilateral exchange rates, which is a sort of fixity of exchange rates similar to a “de facto currency area”. In the context of a liquidity trap, we find that, contrary to common belief during the Euro area crisis, the currency union welfare dominates the independent floating regime. Only a central bank intervention in the form of a managed float policy could allow the independent floating to outperform the monetary union.Through both the empirical and theoretical analyses of the liquidity trap effects on currency misalignments, it is shown that the ZLB constraint tends to reduce currency misalignments compared with the independent floating policy. This suggests a reinforcement of the monetary integration within a monetary union during the liquidity trap
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Bruneau, Gabriel. "Labour Market Adjustments to Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations." Thesis, Université Laval, 2008. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2008/25052/25052.pdf.
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Ce papier évalue la sensibilité de l'emploi, des heures travaillées et des salaires aux variations du taux de change pour les industries manufacturières canadiennes et fournit une étude empirique de l'ajustement de l'emploi, des heures travaillées et des salaires dans de telles industries. L'analyse est basée sur un modèle dynamique appliqué à un panel de 21 industries de 1987 à 2006. L'effet net de l'appréciation du dollar canadien s'est avéré statistiquement significatif et négatif pour l'emploi, les heures travaillées et les salaires, bien que l'effet sur les heures travaillées soit plus prononcé. De plus, l'impact négatif de la dépendance élevée des industries canadiennes envers les exportations. conjugué à l'impact négatif créé par l'appréciation du taux de change sur les importations des intrants étrangers qui sont des substituts à l'intrant travail, augmente les effets négatifs sur ce dernier, les effets de substitution et de revenu allant dans le même sens.This paper evaluates the response of employment, hours worked and wages to real exchange rate shocks in the Canadian manufacturing industries and provides an empirical study of the adjustment of employment, hours worked and wages in such industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model applied to a panel of 21 manufacturing industries from 1987 to 2006. The net effect of the Canadian dollar's appreciation was found to be statistically significant and negative for employment, hours worked and wages, although the effect on hours worked is more pronounced. Furthermore, the negative impact of the high dependency of Canadian manufacturing industries on export, in combination with the negative effect that the appreciation have on the import of foreign inputs that are substitute to labour input, enhance the negative effects on the latter, since the substitution and theoutput channels are going in the same direction.
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Wikström, Anders. "Yaw Rate and Lateral Acceleration Sensor Plausibilisation in an Active Front Steering Vehicle." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-8027.
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Accurate measurements from sensors measuring the vehicle's lateral behavior are vital in todays vehicle dynamic control systems such as the Electronic Stability Program (ESP). This thesis concerns accurate plausibilisation of two of these sensors, namely the yaw rate sensor and the lateral acceleration sensor. The estimation is based on Kalman filtering and culminates in the use of a 2 degree-of-freedom nonlinear two-track model describing the vehicle lateral dynamics. The unknown and time-varying cornering stiffnesses are adapted while the unknown yaw moment of inertia is estimated. The Kalman filter transforms the measured signals into a sequence of residuals that are then investigated with the aid of various change detection methods such as the CuSum algorithm. An investigation into the area of adaptive thresholding has also been made.
The change detection methods investigated successfully detects faults in both the yaw rate and the lateral acceleration sensor. It it also shown that adaptive thresholding can be used to improve the diagnosis system. All of the results have been evaluated on-line in a prototype vehicle with real-time fault injection.
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Al, Hajj Fadia. "Monetary policies and exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0233.
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L'objectif principal des autorités en Afrique subsaharienne est de créer une croissance durable en raison des récents ralentissements de la croissance. Une croissance durable pourrait être réalisée en réhabilitant les vulnérabilités internes et externes afin d'éviter les perturbations macroéconomiques. En Afrique subsaharienne, les vulnérabilités internes proviennent de la mauvaise gouvernance, des choix inefficaces des politiques économiques et d'autres facteurs tels que les guerres civiles. Leurs vulnérabilités externes sont liées à leurs forte dette et dépendance commerciale. Par conséquent, cette thèse se concentre sur l'atténuation des deux vulnérabilités. Le premier chapitre propose une comparaison de la résilience de deux politiques monétaires à plusieurs types de chocs. On considère le ciblage de l'inflation au Ghana et en Afrique du Sud et la caisse d'émission dans l'UEMOA tout en simulant des chocs sur le modèle FPAS. Le deuxième chapitre se concentre sur l'objectif de la résolution des vulnérabilités externes. On propose une stratégie d'ancrage du régime de change nominal et réel pour stabiliser le coût de la dette et promouvoir la compétitivité commerciale. On résout un modèle d'équilibre général pour trouver ses principaux déterminants tout en sauvegardant nos résultats en utilisant les estimations SVAR et MS-VAR. Ainsi, le troisième chapitre résout les vulnérabilités internes. On teste le rôle d'une politique monétaire régie par la politique fiscal et l'existence d'un grand taux de change parallèle dans la propagation d'une inflation élevée et chronique, dans un contexte de désordre civil en estimant un SVAR et un VECM dans l'état fragile du SoudanSub-Saharan African policy makers’ main objective is to create sustainable growth as a result of the recent downturns of growth. Sustainable growth could be achieved by remediating both internal and external vulnerabilities to avoid macroeconomic disruption. In Sub-Saharan Africa, internal vulnerabilities arise from bad governance and institutions, inefficient choices of economic policies and other factors such as civil wars. As for external vulnerabilities, it is related to their balance of payment weaknesses due to their high debt and high trade dependency (high import to GDP level with low export diversification).Therefore, this thesis focus on alleviating both vulnerabilities.The first chapter proposes a comparison of two monetary policies’ resilience to several types of shocks. We consider inflation targeting in Ghana and South Africa and currency board in WAEMU countries while simulating shocks using FPAS model.The second chapter focuses on the objective of solving external vulnerabilities. We propose a policy-mix strategy where Sub-Saharan African countries undertake simultaneously a nominal and real anchor to stabilise the cost of debt and promote trade competitiveness. We propose a general equilibrium model to find its main determinants while backing up our findings using SVAR and MS-VAR estimations.The third chapter’s objective is solving internal vulnerabilities. We test simultaneous the role of a monetary policy governed by the fiscal policy and the existence of a large parallel exchange rate in propagating a high and chronic inflation, in a context of civil disorder. To do so we estimate an SVAR and a VECM model in a fragile state that is Sudan
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Andreou, Irene. "Exchange rate regimes and crises : insights for developing and emerging market economies." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010LYO22016.
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L’objectif de ce travail est d’analyser les implications du choix de régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement, ainsi que d’apporter des éclaircissements sur les facteurs jouant un rôle important dans le déclenchement des crises (de change, bancaires, financières…) dans ces pays. Pour cela, l’analyse se tourne, dans un premier temps, vers la question du choix de régime de change optimal. Cette partie du travail s’appuie principalement sur un grand nombre de travaux théoriques et empiriques traitant de cette question, pour mettre en lumière les implications de ce choix, tout en tenant compte des particularités du groupe de pays qui font l’objet de cette étude. Dans une deuxième partie nous nous intéressons aux crises et les facteurs qui jouent un rôle majeur dans leur incidence. Ainsi, après une revue des différents modèles de crises afin d’identifier les variables d’intérêt, nous construisons deux modèles de prédiction des crises, ou « d’alarme précoce ». Enfin, la troisième partie du travail rassemble les enseignements tirés des deux parties précédentes pour traiter d’une question qui prend une ampleur croissante dans ces pays : étant donné la logique d’intégration financière mondiale et les avantages présentés par un régime de changes flottants dans un tel contexte, de quelle manière un pays envisageant un sortie vers ce régime de change peut-il la planifier, et à quel moment doit-il l’entreprendre, pour réussir une sortie sans crise majeure, que nous qualifions de sortie « ordonnée » ? Pour répondre à cette question, nous nous appuyons sur des expériences passées qui nous permettent de construire un modèle identifiant les variables susceptibles d’accroître la probabilité d’une sortie ordonnée. Nous complétons ce modèle par quelques considérations supplémentaires qui constituent des conditions importantes à la réussite d’une sortie ordonnée. L’objectif est d’apporter des recommandations susceptibles de faciliter cette transitionThe aim of this work is to analyze the implications of exchange rate regime choice in developing and emerging market economies, as well as highlight the factors that play a major role in the incidence of crises (currency, banking, financial…) in these countries. With this aim in mind, we start our analysis by turning to the question of the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime. This part of our work draws on a large number of both theoretical and empirical works evoking this question in order to determine the implications of this choice, all the while keeping in mind the fact that this particular group of countries present certain characteristics that are usually absent in their industrial counterparts. The second part of our work concentrates more specifically on crises and the factors that play a major role in their occurrence. Therefore, following a brief overview of different crisis models in order to identify the variables of interest, we propose two models for crisis prediction, or “Early Warning Systems”. Finally, the third and final part of our work brings together the conclusions of the earlier parts in order to address an issue that is becoming increasingly important in developing and emerging market economies: given their greater integration in international financial and capital markets, as well as the incontestable advantages of a floating exchange rate regime in such a context, how can a country wishing to exit to a more flexible exchange rate arrangement undertake such a transition, and when, in order to achieve an “orderly” exit, that is, an exit that is not accompanied by a crisis? To answer this question we draw on past experiences to construct a model indentifying the economic variables that might increase the probability of an orderly exit. We complete this model with a number of additional considerations that have recently emerged as important preconditions for an orderly exit, in order to provide some useful policy recommendations facilitating this transition
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Ryou, Hyunjoo. "Exchane Rate Dynamics under Financial Market Frictions- Exchange rate regime, capital market openness and monetary policy -Electoral cycle of exchange rate in Korea : The Trilemma in Korea." Phd thesis, Université de Cergy Pontoise, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00838836.
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-Exchange Rate Dynamics under Financial Market FrictionsThis paper extends Dornbusch's overshooting model by proposing "generalized interest parity condition", which assumes sluggish adjustment on the asset market. The exchange rate model under the generalized interest parity condition is able to reproduce the delayed overshooting of nominal exchange rates and the hump-shaped response to monetary shocks of both nominal and real exchange rates.-Electoral Cycle of Exchange Rate in KoreaThis paper empirically investigates the real exchange rate behavior around elections in Korea. We find that the real exchange rate depreciates more before the elections but there is no clear pattern found after the elections. Interestingly, this result is the opposite of the electoral cycle found in Latin American countries. To explain this results we should consider the difference between economic backgrounds of Korea and Latin American countries.-Exchange Rate Regime, Capital Market Openness and Monetary Policy; The Trilemma in KoreaThis paper tests the trilemma proposition by performing an empirical study of Korea. Korea has distinct periods of all combinations of exchange rate regime and capital market openness in trilemma: pegged exchange rate regime under capital controls, pegged exchange rate regime under free capital mobility, and floating exchange rate regime under free capital mobility. We check whether monetary autonomy exists in each of the three different combinations. We find that monetary autonomy existed over the periods with capital controls and the periods with floating exchange rate regime. For the periods with the pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, monetary autonomy was limited. In addition, we identify that just before the financial crisis the government pursued autonomic monetary policy under pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, thereby defying the trilemma.
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Mizuguchi, Satoshi, Howard S. Gray, L. S. Calabrese, G. Gregory Haff, William A. Sands, Michael W. Ramsey, M. Cardinale, and Michael H. Stone. "Repeated Change-of-Direction Test for Collegiate Male Soccer Players." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2014. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/4119.
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AIM: The aim of the study was to investigate the applicability of a repeated change-of-direction (RCoD) test for NCAA Division-I male soccer players.
METHODS: The RCoD test consisted of 5 diagonal direction changes per repetition with a soccer ball to be struck at the end. Each player performed 15 repetitions with approximately 10 seconds to jog back between repetitions. Data were collected in two sessions. In the first session, 13 players were examined for heart rate responses and blood lactate concentrations. In the second session, 22 players were examined for the test’s ability to discriminate the primary from secondary players (78.0±16.1 and 10.4±13.3 minutes per match, respectively).
RESULTS: Heart rate data were available only from 9 players due to artifacts. The peak heart rate (200.2±6.6 beats∙min-1: 99.9±3.0% maximum) and blood lactate concentration (14.8±2.4 mmol∙L-1 immediately after) resulted in approximately 3.5 and 6.4-fold increases from the resting values, respectively. These values appear comparable to those during intense periods of soccer matches. In addition, the average repetition time of the test was found to discriminate the primary (4.85±0.23 s) from the secondary players (5.10±0.24 s) (P=0.02).
CONCLUSION: The RCoD test appears to induce physiological responses similar to intense periods of soccer matches with respect to heart rate and blood lactate concentration. Players with better average repetition times tend to be those who play major minutes.
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Lai, Chiang-Li, and 賴強立. "Structure Change in Interest Rate Policy:Evidence from Taiwan." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/48237795531620689856.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
經濟學研究所
99
This paper adopts a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to capture the central bank interest rate reaction function of Taiwan. We modify the Taylor rule by using real effective exchange rate as the threshold variable. The TAR setting is able to recover the central bank’s nonlinear responses when facing different exchange rate level. This paper also discusses the procedure to determine an appropriate exchange rate target, estimate a TAR model, locate the threshold effect, and perform out-of-sample forecast. This paper shows different exchange rate targets change the result. Except the era after the 2008 financial crisis, it seems that Taiwan’s central bank behavior is consistent over the last decades while there were several economic crises and different chairmen.
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Lo, Yung-Cheng, and 羅永正. "Applying Pixel Change Rate to Vehicle Speed Estimation." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/883ds3.
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碩士國立彰化師範大學
電機工程學系
106
ABSTRACT Due to the rapid expansion of modern city, traffic plays an important role in modern society. Thus, the intelligent transportation system is required for the traffic control. The smooth traffic flow depends on the vehicle speed. Providing a cheap and efficient way to detect car speed is the major purpose of this research. In this thesis, an approach based on the real-time images to estimate vehicle speed is proposed. The proposed method can be implemented into traffic control system to the detect traffic flow. Thus the traffic system can find heavy traffic spots in advance before the traffic jam occurred. The proposed method uses the regression lines that describe the car speed and the pixel change rate of license plate area to estimate the vehicle speed. First, uses a particular car to get the initial dataset to draw both one-order and two-order regression lines of speed and pixel change rate. Next, we use videos took from the same spot to test the accuracy of regression lines. The proposed method only uses the simple algorisms, so the proposed method can run in short time. Moreover, this approach can save vehicle images simultaneously that are useful to the traffic surveillance system. The proposed method applies the regression lines of pixel change rate to estimate vehicle speed which is efficient and has lower error. Based on the experimental results, the processing time of vehicle speed estimation is under five seconds and the error is lower than ten km/h.
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Chi, Wen-Chih, and 紀文智. "A Bayesian analysis in change-point hazard rate model." Thesis, 1993. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74349448055254411518.
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Wang, Jong, and 王德民. "Estimation in two change-point constant hazard rate models." Thesis, 1995. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20685512088386155152.
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Chang, Chen Yu, and 陳郁漳. "Asymptotic Moments of a Hazard-rate Estimator Change-point." Thesis, 1993. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/26652521000352600001.
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Baumgartner, Robert Mathew. "Attitude change and behavior change a field experiment investigating responses to an alternative electric rate /." 1987. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/17204548.html.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1987.Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 158-168).
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"Regime Change: Sampling Rate vs. Bit-Depth in Compressive Sensing." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1911/70305.
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The compressive sensing (CS) framework aims to ease the burden on analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) by exploiting inherent structure in natural and man-made signals. It has been demonstrated that structured signals can be acquired with just a small number of linear measurements, on the order of the signal complexity. In practice, this enables lower sampling rates that can be more easily achieved by current hardware designs. The primary bottleneck that limits ADC sampling rates is quantization, i.e., higher bit-depths impose lower sampling rates. Thus, the decreased sampling rates of CS ADCs accommodate the otherwise limiting quantizer of conventional ADCs. In this thesis, we consider a different approach to CS ADC by shifting towards lower quantizer bit-depths rather than lower sampling rates. We explore the extreme case where each measurement is quantized to just one bit, representing its sign. We develop a new theoretical framework to analyze this extreme case and develop new algorithms for signal reconstruction from such coarsely quantized measurements. The 1-bit CS framework leads us to scenarios where it may be more appropriate to reduce bit-depth instead of sampling rate. We find that there exist two distinct regimes of operation that correspond to high/low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In the measurement compression (MC) regime, a high SNR favors acquiring fewer measurements with more bits per measurement (as in conventional CS); in the quantization compression (QC) regime, a low SNR favors acquiring more measurements with fewer bits per measurement (as in this thesis). A surprise from our analysis and experiments is that in many practical applications it is better to operate in the QC regime, even acquiring as few as 1 bit per measurement. The above philosophy extends further to practical CS ADC system designs. We propose two new CS architectures, one of which takes advantage of the fact that the sampling and quantization operations are performed by two different hardware components. The former can be employed at high rates with minimal costs while the latter cannot. Thus, we develop a system that discretizes in time, performs CS preconditioning techniques, and then quantizes at a low rate.
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黃純宜. "Interest rate change to the macroeconomic effects in the Taiwan." Thesis, 1991. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13737495249313278261.
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Yeh, Tzu-Yen, and 葉諮諺. "The Impact of Unanticipated Exchange Rate Change on Firm Valuation." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/67288438292215646017.
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碩士中原大學
國際貿易研究所
97
As the development strategy of globalization gradually ferments in Taiwan, many companies face deep affect by the change in exchange rate. Especially the globalized firms will face the challenge of exchange rate exposure. Because the change of exchange rate can influence not only firm’s revenue, but also firm value. Consequently it is an important job to evaluate firm’s exchange rate exposure and the factors affecting the exchange rate exposure. To obtain the exchange rate exposure, we must first forecast the exchange rate. There are many methods to forecast the exchange rate, but the literature concentrated on using the ARIMA model. This article tries to adopt other methods to measure the exchange rate and exchange rate exposure, and compares their performances. This article uses the time series model and monetary fundamental model to obtain the unanticipated part of exchange rate. Once the directions and degrees of the exchange rate exposure have been found out, we can further determine the effect of three operating factors, company’s size, debit ratio and quick ratio on the exchange rate exposure. Sample objects are the 53 component companies in the Taiwan 50 index and Taiwan Mid-cap 100 index. Sample period spans from January 2002 to September 2008 whilst January 2002 to June 2005 is in-sample period to fit the models and the remainder is out-of-sample period to measure the exchange rate exposure. Moreover, we adopt firm revenue as a proxy of the firm value. The main findings of this paper are summarized as follows. The exchange rate exposure, faced by Taiwanese companies, is less significant than that obtained in previous studies. The probable reason is many companies have known how to use derivatives to avoid the exchange rate risk. There are different degrees of the exchange rate exposures between the time series model and monetary fundamental model, and the monetary fundamentals model has higher significant degree than the time series model. Because our estimation period is over two years, then the monetary fundamentals model is much suitable for long-term estimation for exchange rate and exchange rate exposure. In other words, the length of estimation period in exchange rate (exposure) will influence the choice of estimation models.
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CHENG, YA-LING, and 鄭雅玲. "Effect of Exchange Rate Change on Exports—Evidence from Taiwan." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/p2j7t5.
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碩士國立高雄應用科技大學
國際企業系碩士在職專班
104
The effect of exchange rates on export trades has been controversial research issues, whether in theory or empirical. This study investigated the impact of exchange rate movements on exports of Taiwan, using samples from January 2004 to December 2014 to discuss the relevance of Taiwan total exports and nominal effective exchange rate and Taiwan top four export industries and exchange rates. The empirical results show that there exists causal relationship among exports, exchange rate and US index of industrial production. There is no significant relationship between Taiwan total exports and nominal effective exchange rate index. Exchange rate has a significant impact on exports of Machinery and Plastic_rubber industries and the US index of industrial production has a significant impact on all four Taiwan exporting industries. Instead, find the index of industrial production of the United States, a relatively significant impact on Taiwan exports and the exchange rate.