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Timmermann, Allan. "Rational expectations, learning and stock market efficiency." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.357750.
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Carton, Joel. "Self-fulfilling expectations of cyclical volatility and learnable rational expectations behavior /." view abstract or download file of text, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p9947970.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 1999.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-113). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users. Address: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p9947970.
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McGlone, James M. "On rational expectations and dynamic games." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/52306.
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We consider the problem of uniting dynamic game theory and the rational expectations hypothesis. In doing so we examine the current trend in macroeconomic literature towards the use of dominant player games and offer an alternative game solution that seems more compatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. Our analysis is undertaken in the context of a simple deterministic macroeconomy. Wage setters are the agents in the economy and are playing a non-cooperative game with the Fed. The game is played with the wage setters selecting a nominal wage based on their expectation of the money supply, and the Fed selecta the money supply based on its expectation of the nominal wage.
We find it is incorrect to use the rational expectations hypothesis in conjunction with the assumption that wage setters take the Fed's choices as an exogenous uncontrollable forcing process. We then postulate the use of a Nash equilibrium in which players have rational expectations. This results in an equilibrium that has Stackleberg properties. The nature of the solution is driven by the fact that the wage setter's reaction function is a level maximal set that covers all possible choices of the Fed.
One of the largest problems we encountered in applying rational expectations to a dynamic game is the interdependence of the players' expectations. This problem raises two interesting but as yet unresolved questions regarding the expectations structures of agents: whether an endogenous expectations structure will yield rational expectations; and can endogenous expectations be completely modelled.
In addition to the questions mentioned above we also show that the time inconsistency problem comes from either misspecifying the constraints on the policy maker or an inconsistency in interpreting those constraints. We also show that the Lucas critique holds in a game setting and how the critique relates to the reaction functions of players.Ph. D.
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Jackson, Aaron L. "Near-rational behavior in New Keynesian models /." view abstract or download file of text, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3061948.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2002.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-113). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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PANK, ROULUND Rasmus. "Essays in empirical economics." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/62944.
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Defence date: 20 May 2019Examining Board: Prof. Jerome Adda (Supervisor); Prof. Piero Gottardi,University of Essex; Prof. Rosemarie Nagel, Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Prof. Glenn W. Harrison, Georgia State University
This first chapter is co-authored with Nicolás Aragón and examines how participant and market confidence affect the outcomes in an experimental asset market where the fundamental value is known by all participants. Such a market should, in theory, clear at the expected value in each period. However, the literature has shown that bubbles often occur in these markets. We measure the confidence of each participant by asking them to forecast the one-period-ahead price as a discrete probability mass distribution. We find that confidence not only affects price-formation in markets, but is important in explaining the dynamics of bubbles. Moreover, as traders’ confidence grows, they become increasingly more optimistic, thus increasing the likelihood of price bubbles. The second chapter also deals with expectations and uncertainty, but from a different angle. It asks how increased uncertainty affects economic demand in a particular sector, using a discrete-choice demand framework. To investigate this issue I examine empirically to what extent varying uncertainty affects the consumer demand for flight traffic using us micro demand data. I find that the elasticity of uncertainty on demand is economically and statistically significant. The third chapter presents a more practical side to the issue examined in the first chapter. It describes how to elicit participants’ expectations in an economic experiment. The methodology is based on Harrison et al. (2017). The tool makes it easier for participants in economic experiments to forecast the movements of a key variable as discrete values using a discrete probability mass distribution that can be “drawn” on a virtual canvas using the mouse. The module I wrote is general enough that it can be included in other economic experiments.
1. Certainty and Decision-Making in Experimental Asset Markets 1.1. Literature Review 1.2. Hypotheses 1.3. Experimental Design 1.3.1. The asset market 1.3.2. Eliciting traders’ beliefs 1.3.3. Risk, Ambiguity and Hedging 1.4. Overview of experimental data 1.4.1. Summary of the trade data 1.4.2. Expectation data 1.5. Results 1.5.1. Predictions and forecast 1.5.2. Convergence of expectations 1.5.3. Market volatility and initial expectations 1.5.4. Explanatory power of certainty on price formation 1.6. Conclusion 2. The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on demand: 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Literature review 2.3. A model of demand for flights 2.3.1. Demand 2.3.2. Firms 2.4. Data 2.4.1. The characteristics of the products 2.4.2. Market and macroeconomic characteristics 2.4.3. Instruments 2.4.4. Product shares 2.5. Results 2.6. Conclusion 3. forecast.js: a module for measuring expectation in economic experiments 3.1. Background 3.1.1. Elicitating Expectations in Experimental Finance 3.1.2. Eliciting a Distribution of Beliefs: Theoretical Considerations 3.2. Using the forecast.js module 3.2.1. Calibration 3.2.2. Accessing the forecast data 3.3. The generated data 3.3.1. Example of individual expectations 3.3.2. Timing Considerations 3.3.3. Prediction precision over time 3.4. Conclusion Bibliography A. Appendix to Chapter 1 A.1. Further robustness checks A.1.1. Additional graph for Hypothesis 2 A.1.2. Increased agreement with the Bhattacharyya coefficient A.1.3. Additional robustness checks for Hypothesis 3 A.2. Instructions for experiment A.2.1. General Instructions A.2.2. How to use the computerized market A.3. Questionnaire A.3.1. Before Session A.3.2. After Session B. Appendix to Chapter 3 99 B.1. Robustness check of precision B.2. Using forecast.js in a standalone HTML page B.3. Using forecast.js with oTree B.3.1. Setting up models.py B.3.2. The pages.py file B.3.3. Display forecast modules on the pages
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Kim, Yŏng-yong. "Exchange rate determination under rational expectations : an empirical investigation /." Connect to resource, 1985. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1264773152.
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Wenzelburger, Jan. "Learning in economic systems with expectations feedback." Berlin Heidelberg New York Springer, 2006. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=2668403&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm.
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RAST, Sebastian. "Essays on the dynamics of inflation expectations." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/74528.
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Defence date: 11 May 2022Examining Board : Prof. Evi Pappa (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Prof. Leonardo Melosi (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Dr. Philippe Andrade (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Dr. Marek Jarociński (European Central Bank)
This thesis investigates the dynamics of inflation expectations with a particular focus on survey data. It aims to further the understanding of what drives inflation expectations and what are the implications of changes in inflation expectations for economic choices. The first chapter examines to what extent monetary policy moves household inflation expectations. More specifically, I study the effect of different types of monetary policy announcements on household inflation expectations based on micro data from a survey of German households. As unique feature, interviews of the survey were conducted both shortly before and after monetary policy events. This timing provides a natural experiment to identify the immediate effects of policy announcements on household inflation expectations. In contrast to most existing studies, the availability of the survey over a period of 15 years also allows me to exploit the time-series dimension to estimate how policy announcements affect household inflation expectations over the medium-term. I find that policy rate announcements lead to quick and significant adjustments in household inflation expectations with the effect peaking after half a year. Announcements about forward guidance and quantitative easing, on the other hand, have only small and delayed effects. My results suggest that monetary policy announcements can influence household expectations but further improvements in communication seem to be necessary to reach the general public more effectively. In particular, in an environment where policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound, it may be very hard for central banks to influence household expectations. In the second chapter, joint with Evi Pappa and Alejandro Vicondoa, we focus on expectations about inflation in the medium to long run and study the implications of changes in these expectations for households’ economic choices. We identify in a SVAR shocks that best explain future movements in different measures of underlying inflation at a five-year horizon and label them as news augmented shocks to underlying inflation. Independently of the measure used, such shocks raise the nominal rate and inflation persistently, while they induce mild and short-lived increases in economic activity. The extracted inflation shocks have differential distributional effects. They increase significantly and persistently the consumption of mortgagors and homeowners. Differently from the traditional monetary policy disturbances, news augmented shocks to underlying inflation induce a positive wealth effect for mortgagors and homeowners, driven by a reduction in the real mortgage payments and a persistent increase in real house prices that they induce. The third chapter, joint with Jonas Fisher and Leonardo Melosi, is also about long-run inflation expectations but in this case the focus is on professional forecasters. We use panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters to estimate a model of individual forecaster behavior in an environment where inflation follows a trend-cycle time series process. Our model allows us to estimate the sensitivity of forecasters’ long-run expectations to incoming inflation and news about future inflation, and measure the coordination of beliefs about future inflation. We use our model of individual forecasters to study average long-run inflation expectations. Short term changes in inflation have small effects on average expectations; the sensitivity to news is over twice as large, but is still relatively small. These findings provide a partial explanation for why the anchoring and subsequent de-anchoring of average inflation expectations over 1991 to 2020 were such long-lasting episodes. Our model suggests coordination of beliefs also played a role, slowing down but not preventing the pull on average expectations from inflation running persistently below target. We apply our model to the case of a U.S. central banker setting policy in September 2021. Our results suggest the high inflation readings of mid-2021 would have to be followed by overshooting of the Fed’s target generally at the high end of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections to re-anchor long term expectations at their pre-Great Recession level.
1 Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Survey Evidence from Germany 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Data and descriptive evidence 1.3 Identification approach and main results 1.4 Discussion 1.5 Inflation expectations and consumer spending 1.6 Conclusion 2 Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of news shocks to underlying inflation 32 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Identifying News Shocks to Underlying Inflation 2.3 Macroeconomic Effects 2.4 Estimation of Heterogeneous Effects 2.5 Comparison with Monetary Policy Shocksclusion 3 Anchoring long-run inflation expectations in a panel of professional forecasters 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Relation to the literature 3.3 The Model 3.4 Estimation 3.5 Data 3.6 Estimates 3.7 Inflation expectations through the lens of the model 3.8 Re-Anchoring U.S. Inflation Expectations 3.9 Conclusion -- References -- A Appendix to Chapter 1 -- A.1 GfK household survey -- A.2 Monetary policy surprises -- A.3 Additional event study results -- A.4 Additional local projection results -- A.5 Dynamic effects based on pseudo panel approach -- A.6 The effects on quantitative inflation expectations -- A.7 Financial market responses -- B Appendix to Chapter 2 -- B.1 Data Appendix -- B.2 Series of underlying inflation -- B.3 Correlation with monetary policy/inflation target shocks -- B.4 Validation of the Identified Shock -- B.5 IRFs Additional Variables -- B.6 VAR Robustness Analysis -- B.7 LP IRFs of VAR variables -- B.8 VAR IRFs of consumption responses by housing tenure -- B.9 Additional LP results -- B.10 Alternative dimensions of heterogeneity -- B.11 Robustness of Baseline Heterogeneous Effects -- B.12 Comparison with monetary policy shocks -- C Appendix to Chapter 3 -- C.1 Definition of matrices in subsection 3.3.2 and section 3.4 -- C.2 Model derivations -- C.3 Initial conditions for estimation -- C.4 Selection of forecasters -- C.5 Volatility of Expectations -- C.6 Historical decomposition -- C.7 Robustness of panel estimation -- C.8 Projection exercise
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Tzavalis, Elias. "Tests and applications of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates." Thesis, London Business School (University of London), 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361604.
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Branch, William A. "Three essays on the dynamics and empirics of rationally heterogeneous expectations /." view abstract or download file of text, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3018358.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2001.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-102). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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MARINKOV, Viktor. "Essays in macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/64747.
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Defence date: 23 October 2019Examining Board: Prof. Ramon Marimon, European University Institute, (Supervisor); Prof. Juan Dolado, Universidad Carlos III; Prof. Gaetano Gaballo, HEC, Paris; Prof. Thomas Sampson, LSE
This thesis contains three chapters. The first two consider deviations from rational expectations for understanding the unprecedentedly long period of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) since the Great Recession. There I show that if agents are adaptively learning, Central Banks can use forward guidance to guide them through the novel economic environment. In the third chapter I take a more long-run structural outlook to study the interplay of skills, technologies and complementarities for understanding differences in labour market outcomes across OECD countries. The first chapter studies the effects of forward guidance (FG) from a novel perspective. Instead of considering FG as a promise for future actions or providing better forecasting, the Central Bank (CB) in the model is giving a signal about its own reaction function. The CB uses FG as a communication device to signal a policy change. The main findings are that clear communication increases welfare compared to no communication, yet vague messages prove ineffective. The second chapter considers the ZLB as an informational curtain for adaptively learning agents as they cannot observe the path of the interest rate. In a model I show that this results in expectations disagreement between the agents and the CB, consistent with the data. The disagreement coupled with the learning of the agents results in explosive dynamics. Forward guidance is shown to restore stability at the ZLB by preventing spurious expectational drift. The third chapter studies the relationship between returns to skill and assortative matching. Using the PIAAC cognitive skills dataset I show that: returns to skill are systematically related to industrial sorting; high-skilled industries have more assortative matching of workers from all occupations; and more developed countries have less mismatch. I further build a model to illuminate the mechanism. I find that rich countries experience a trade-off of lower overall mismatch but higher crosssectoral mismatch, yet due to higher search frictions poorer ones end up being more mismatched overall.
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Dabbs, Russell Edward. "Do Predictions of Professional Business Economists Conform to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis?: Tests on a Set of Survey Data." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1989. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc501259/.
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A set of forecast survey data is analyzed in this paper for properties consistent with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. Standard statistical tests for "rational expectations" are employed utilizing consensus forecasts generated by an interest rate newsletter. Four selected variables (Fed Funds rate, M1 rate of growth, rate of change in CPI, and real GNP growth rate) are analyzed over multiple time horizons. Results tend to reject "rational expectations" for most variables and time horizons. Forecasts are more likely to meet "rationality" criteria the shorter the forecast horizon, with the notable exception of forecasts of real GNP growth.
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Liu, Peter Chi-Wah. "The dynamics of nominal exchange rates." Gainesville, FL, 1989. http://www.archive.org/details/dynamicsofnomina00liup.
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Wong, Man Chiu. "Essays on learning dynamics, monetary policy and macroeconomic outcomes /." view abstract or download file of text, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3055723.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2002.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 161-169). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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Li, Ji. "Essays on discrete choice under social interaction methodology and applications /." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1180499711.
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Fisher, Paul Gregory. "Simulation and control techniques for nonlinear rational expectation models." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1990. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106494/.
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This thesis presents a comprehensive set of techniques for solving, simulating, analysing and controlling large scale, nonlinear, econometric models that contain rational expectations of future dated variables. These expectations are generally treated as model consistent, whereby the expectation is set to the deterministic projection of the model. Solutions to such models are distinguished from those of conventional models by the fact that they are not recursive in time. The outcome for the current period depends on the expected outcome for future periods as well as past periods. This property means that all of the basic numerical procedures need to be altered. We consider the following topics: solution algorithms for the two—point boundary value problem; terminal conditions, uniqueness and stability; experimental design and stochastic simulation; model forms, solution modes and historical tracking; control methods including optimal control. We find that suitable procedures allow us to undertake all of the experiments usually conducted with conventional models. Each topic is illustrated by application to three large scale models of the United Kingdom economy which contain rational expectations terms. Only one of these models is constructed following the new-classical paradigm and hence their comparative properties revealed by our experiments are of some interest.
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Capistran, Carmona Carlos. "Essays on forecast evaluation under general loss functions /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2005. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3175283.
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STRATI, FRANCESCO. "Three Essays on Behavioral Economics." Doctoral thesis, Università di Siena, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1011301.
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Nowadays, behavioral economics has lured the attention of an increasing number of economists. This is due to the recent financial crisis of 2007-09 that forced economists to realize that psychological biases could modifiy rational equilibria since, on avarage, arbitrageurs are not always able to bring back the economy to the rational path. Taking into account limits of arbitrage and limits in cognitive capacities, an economy can be vulnerable to the sensitiveness of agents to new information. If this sensitiveness is of a certain size, such that arbitrageurs behavior is negligible, then sensitive agents (also called local thinkers in the following essays) can enter into the formation of an equilibrium modifying its dynamics.
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Ekiz, Funda. "Cagan Type Rational Expectations Model on Time Scales with Their Applications to Economics." TopSCHOLAR®, 2011. http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/1126.
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Rational expectations provide people or economic agents making future decision with available information and past experiences. The first approach to the idea of rational expectations was given approximately fifty years ago by John F. Muth. Many models in economics have been studied using the rational expectations idea. The most familiar one among them is the rational expectations version of the Cagans hyperination model where the expectation for tomorrow is formed using all the information available today. This model was reinterpreted by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace in 1973. After that time, many solution techniques were suggested to solve the Cagan type rational expectations (CTRE) model. Some economists such as Muth [13], Taylor [26] and Shiller [27] consider the solutions admitting an infinite moving-average representation. Blanchard and Kahn [28] find solutions by using a recursive procedure. A general characterization of the solution was obtained using the martingale approach by Broze, Gourieroux and Szafarz in [22], [23]. We choose to study martingale solution of CTRE model. This thesis is comprised of five chapters where the main aim is to study the CTRE model on isolated time scales.
Most of the models studied in economics are continuous or discrete. Discrete models are more preferable by economists since they give more meaningful and accurate results. Discrete models only contain uniform time domains. Time scale calculus enables us to study on m-periodic time domains as well as non periodic time domains. In the first chapter, we give basics of time scales calculus and stochastic calculus. The second chapter is the brief introduction to rational expectations and the CTRE model. Moreover, many other solution techniques are examined in this chapter. After we introduce the necessary background, in the third chapter we construct the CTRE Model on isolated time scales. Then we give the general solution of this model in terms of martingales. We continue our work with defining the linear system and higher order CTRE on isolated time scales. We use Putzer Algorithm to solve the system of the CTRE Model. Then, we examine the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the CTRE model. In the fourth chapter, we apply our solution algorithm developed in the previous chapter to models in Finance and stochastic growth models in Economics.
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Guse, Eran A. "Essays on heterogeneity, learning dynamics, and aggregate fluctuations /." view abstract or download file of text, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3095249.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2003.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 139-142). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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Bauknecht, Klaus Dieter. "A macroeconometric policy model of the South African economy based on weak rational expectations with an application to monetary policy." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51575.
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Dissertation (PhD) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2000.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Lucas critique states that if expectations are not explicitly dealt with, conventional econometric models are inappropriate for policy analyses, as their coefficients are not policy invariant. The inclusion of rational expectations in ·conventional model building has been the most common response to this critique. The concept of rational expectations has received several interpretations. In numerous studies, these expectations are associated with model consistent expectations in the sense that expectations and model solutions are identical. To derive a solution, these models require unique algorithms and assumptions regarding their terminal state, in particular when forward-looking expectations are present. An alternative that avoids these issues is the concept of weak rational expectations, which emphasises that expectation errors should not be systematic. Expectations are therefore formed on the basis of an underlying structure, but full knowledge of the model is not essential. The accommodation of this type of rational expectations is accomplished by means of an explicit specification of an expectations equation consistent with the macro econometric model's broad structure. The estimation of coefficients relating to expectations is achieved through an Instrumental Variable approach. In South Africa, monetary policy has been consistent and transparent in line with the recommendations of the De Kock Commission. This allows the modelling of the policy instrument of the South African Reserve Bank, i.e. the Bank rate, by means of a policy reaction function. Given this transparency in monetary policy, the accommodation of expectations of the Bank rate is essential in modelling the full impact of monetary policy and in avoiding the Lucas critique. This is accomplished through weak rational expectations, based on the reaction function of the Reserve Bank. The accommodation of expectations of a policy instrument also allows the modelling of anticipated and unanticipated policies as alternative assumptions regarding the expectations process can be made during simulations. Conventional econometric models emphasise the demand side of the economy, with equations focusing on private consumption, investment, exports and imports and possibly changes in inventories. In this study, particular emphasis in the model specification is also placed on the impact of monetary policy on government debt and debt servicing costs. Other dimensions of the model include the modelling of the money supply and balance of payments, short- and long-term interest rates, domestic prices, the exchange rate, the wage rate and employment as well as weakly rational expectations of inflation and the Bank rate. The model has been specified and estimated by usmg concepts such as cointegration and Error Correction modelling. Numerous tests, including the assessment of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error, have been employed to test the adequacy of the model. Similarly, tests are carried out to ensure weak rational expectations. Numerous simulations are carried out with the model and the results are compared to relevant alternative studies. The simulation results show that the reduction of inflation by means of only monetary policy could impose severe costs on the economy in terms of real sector volatility.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Lucas-kritiek beweer dat konvensionele ekonometriese modelle nie gebruik kan word vir beleidsontleding nie, aangesien dit nie voorsiening maak vir die verandering in verwagtings wanneer beleidsaanpassings gemaak word nie. Die insluiting van rasionele verwagtinge in konvensionele ekonometriese modelle is die mees algemene reaksie op die Lukas-kritiek. Ten einde die praktiese insluiting van rasionele verwagtings III ekonometriese modelbou te vergemaklik, word in hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van sogenaamde "swak rasionele verwagtings", wat slegs vereis dat verwagtingsfoute me sistematies moet wees nie. Die beraming van die koëffisiënte van die verwagtingsveranderlikes word gedoen met behulp van die Instrumentele Veranderlikes-benadering. Monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika was histories konsekwent en deursigtig in ooreenstemming met die aanbevelings van die De Kock Kommissie. Die beleidsinstrument van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank, naamlik die Bankkoers, kan gevolglik gemodelleer word met behulp van 'n beleidsreaksie-funksie. Ten einde die Lukas-kritiek te akkommodeer, moet verwagtings oor die Bankkoers egter ingesluit word wanneer die volle impak van monetêre beleid gemodelleer word. Dit word vermag met die insluiting van swak rasionele verwagtings, gebaseer op die reaksie-funksie van die Reserwebank. Sodoende kan die impak van verwagte en onverwagte beleidsaanpassings gesimuleer word. Konvensionele ekonometriese modelle beklemtoon die vraagkant van die ekonomie, met vergelykings vir verbruik, investering, invoere, uitvoere en moontlik die verandering in voorrade. In hierdie studie word daar ook klem geplaas op die impak van monetêre beleid op staatskuld en die koste van staatsskuld. Ander aspekte wat gemodelleer word, is die geldvoorraad en betalingsbalans, korttermyn- en langtermynrentekoerse, binnelandse pryse, die wisselkoers, loonkoerse en indiensneming, asook swak rasionele verwagtings van inflasie en die Bankkkoers. Die model is gespesifiseer en beraam met behulp van ko-integrasie en die gebruik van lang-en korttermynvergelykings. Die gebruiklike toetse is uitgevoer om die toereikendheid van die model te toets. Verskeie simulasies is uitgevoer met die model en die resultate is vergelyk met ander relevante studies. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat die verlaging van inflasie deur alleenlik gebruik te maak van monetêre beleid 'n swaar las op die ekonomie kan lê in terme van volatiliteit in die reële sektor.
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Kim, Dong Heon. "Essays on the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy, and business cycle /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9975875.
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Tolar, Martin. "Satisficing versus optimising behaviour in the non-durable consumption expenditure decision making process : an empirical examination of Australian data for the period 1976(1) - 1994(2) /." [Campbelltown, N.S.W. : The Author], 1995. http://library.uws.edu.au/adt-NUWS/public/adt-NUWS20030703.130007/index.html.
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Gaus, Eric. "Macroeconomic models with endogenous learning." Thesis, University of Oregon, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/10868.
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xi, 87 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number.The behavior of the macroeconomy and monetary policy is heavily influenced by expectations. Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model. One common way to alter expectation formation involves agents' use of econometrics to form forecasting equations. Agents update their forecasts based on new information that arises as the economy progresses through time. In this way agents "learn" about the economy. Previous learning literature mostly focuses on agents using a fixed data size or increasing the amount of data they use. My research explores how agents might endogenously change the amount of data they use to update their forecast equations. My first chapter explores how an established endogenous learning algorithm, proposed by Marcet and Nicolini, may influence monetary policy decisions. Under rational expectations (RE) determinacy serves as the main criterion for favoring a model or monetary policy rule. A determinant model need not result in stability under an alternative expectation formation process called learning. Researchers appeal to stability under learning as a criterion for monetary policy rule selection. This chapter provides a cautionary tale for policy makers and reinforces the importance of the role of expectations. Simulations appear stable for a prolonged interval of time but may suddenly deviate from the RE solution. This exotic behavior exhibits significantly higher volatility relative to RE yet over long simulations remains true to the RE equilibrium. In the second chapter I address the effectiveness of endogenous gain learning algorithms in the presence of occasional structural breaks. Marcet and Nicolini's algorithm relies on agents reacting to forecast errors. I propose an alternative, which relies on agents using statistical information. The third chapter uses standard macroeconomic data to find out whether a model that has non-rational expectations can outperform RE. I answer this question affirmatively and explore what learning means to the economy. In addition, I conduct a Monte Carlo exercise to investigate whether a simple learning model does, empirically, imbed an RE model. While theoretically a very small constant gain implies RE, empirically learning creates bias in coefficient estimates.
Committee in charge: George Evans, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Shankha Chakraborty, Member, Economics; Sergio Koreisha, Outside Member, Decision Sciences
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Park, Young Joon. "Essays on biased self image." Diss., [La Jolla] : University of California, San Diego, 2009. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3379204.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2009.Title from first page of PDF file (viewed November 17, 2009). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Khubchandani, Shaun. "How Are Inflation Expectations Formed by Consumers, Economists and the Financial Market?" Scholarship @ Claremont, 2010. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/48.
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Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of inflation expectations, especially when monetary policy is rendered ineffective and there is almost perfect substitutability between money and bonds due to the zero bound condition of interest rates. Given the canonical theories of rational and adaptive expectations, this paper will use a simple model of the economy to measure the effect of various macroeconomic variables on the formation of inflation expectations. It will test to see how consumers, economists and the market measure and forecast inflation both in the short and in the long run.
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Semrad, Kelly J. "Discounting an empirical justification for its value in the lodging industry." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2010. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/4566.
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Based on the findings of the statistical procedures performed and the theoretical framework, the study contends that previous research may have incorrectly modeled room price expectations; elected to use inappropriate statistical tests; and, therefore, may have entertained misleading conclusions regarding the relationship between discounting of hotel room rates and hotel financial performance. Through use of an error correction model, the major findings of this study imply several concepts: that residuals may be treated as a variable within the study's model in order to better understand the short run dynamics that may lead to equilibrium correcting room price positions over the long run of time; that discounting room rates works in the short run; and, that managers use a rational price setting strategy to set future room rates. All of the aforementioned concepts fall within accordance of the rational expectations theory. The study concludes that while the constant room rate adjustments observed in the lodging industry may display what appears to be a random structure that deviates from the expected systematic, or stable, financial performance of a hotel over time, the deviations in performance are actually a rhythmic synthesized process of market information from past and current times. Hence, hotel managers appear to be using a backward looking model to forwardly project optimal room rates to match uncertain consumer demand. The empirical assessment employed in this study supports this determination.; The central focus of this study is to provide an empirical explanation regarding the efficacy of the managerial expectation formation process as it contributes to the understanding of discounting room rates as a rational strategic phenomenon in the lodging industry. The study assesses the nature of the relationship between discounting hotel room rates and hotel financial performance when considering the non-stationary conditions of a time series data set. The study was rooted in an operational based perspective with regard to the challenges presented by the perishable nature of room night sales--the loss of which may impact a manager's fundamental responsibility: to generate maximum revenue from the existing hotel room capacity. Of critical importance to this study is whether the incremental use of discounting room rates could work to correct for temporal periods of decreased demand and thus increase short-term hotel financial performance. There is limited research regarding the empirical relationship between discounting room rates and hotel financial performance, as well as the internal process that a hotel manager uses to determine an accurate room rate that corresponds to seasonal lodging market demand conditions. An empirical foundation for this practice is lacking in the extant hospitality literature. Literature reveals that, although the lodging industry commonly incorporates discounting as a pricing strategy, recent research implies that high occupancy levels at discounted room rates do not necessarily lead to an increase in hotel financial performance. The contrast then between what is practiced and the recommendations from pricing strategy studies has led to lack of consistent agreement in current lodging literature regarding how discounting of hotel room rates relates to hotel financial performance.; This study is at the forefront in its use of the methodological procedures that support a theoretical framework capable of providing explanations regarding managers' internal process of discounting as an effective pricing strategy that could compensate for times of decreased room demand. An econometric case study research design was used in conjunction with a cointegration analysis and an error correction model (none of which are otherwise appropriated as assessment tools in the lodging industry). These applications provide a means to understand the expectation formation process of managers' room price setting strategies. They also assess the empirical nature of the relationship between the variables by accounting for the erratic variations of room demand over time as induced by random error fluctuations. A non-deterministic system was assumed and supported through the analysis of the stationarity conditions of the time series data set under investigation. The distinguishing characteristics of a dynamic system that are recognized as traits of the lodging industry are further supported by the theoretical framework of the rational expectations theory and the cobweb model. The results of the study are based on secondary financial data sets that were provided by a midscale independently owned leisure hotel in the Orlando, FL market and that is located on Walt Disney World property. The results of this study delineate from the current normative economic recommendation based on descriptive research that claims discounting hotel room rates does not increase hotel financial performance. The current study does not draw an association between the variables from the presupposition of a deterministic marketplace, nor does it recommend to managers to hold a constant average daily rate over time.ID: 029049754; System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.; Mode of access: World Wide Web.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Central Florida, 2010.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 171-183).
Ph.D.
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Beukes, Anna. "The existence of the value premium on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1972 to 2001 and extrapolation as explanation." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002711.
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This study investigates the existence of the value premium in South Africa’s equity market, and tests extrapolation as a possible explanation for it. The value premium refers to the widely reported superior performance of share price returns of value companies compared to growth companies. The value premium represents an anomaly in mainstream rational finance theory, because it should not persist, unless it could be explained as the result of some composite form of risk. What is highly vexing is the fact that the value premium not only persists in most financial markets over a long period, but that the risk explanation cannot be upheld convincingly. This contributed to the rise of behavioral finance, an approach which introduces psychological factors to provide new explanations for financial phenomena. The behavioral finance explanation for the value premium observation is extrapolation (the tendency to project recent experience too far into the future). This study applies propositions and methods from behavioral finance to investigate the South African equity market. The existence of a value premium in South Africa was investigated by using twenty-nine years’ worth of accounting and share price data. The study employed one- and two-dimensional tests for portfolio formation, and tracked share price returns for up to five years after portfolio formation. The results indicated that a statistically and economically significant value premium existed in South Africa for the period between 1972 and 2001. Extrapolation as a potential explanation for the value premium observation was investigated by applying internationally used methods. Extrapolation was found to provide a robust explanation for the South African value premium.
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Tolar, Martin. "Satisficing versus optimising behaviour in the non-durable consumption expenditure decision making process." Thesis, [Campbelltown, N.S.W. : The Author], 1995. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/108.
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The new classical school's dominance of mainstream economic thought in recent years has brought with it the associated adoption of rational economic agents ( in the Muthian sense) by mainstream economists. This thesis challenges this underlying assumption of human behaviour in the context of the non-durable consumption expenditure decision making process. In doing so, our attention will be placed upon the weak or more general form of the hypothesis, which has come to be known as optimisation. We employ a behavioural methodology in an attempt to ascertain if individuals adhere to the optimising or satisficing model of human behaviour. In doing so time will be spent examining the bounded rationality hypothesis. We also employ a behavioural methodology in producing a non-durable consumption function that is econometrically comparable with an optimising model of non-durable consumption expenditure (namely the permanent income rational expectations hypothesis). The micro results produced in this thesis suggest that the respondents surveyed from non-durable consumption expenditure decisions that are sub-optimal in nature. The formation of these sub-tropical expenditure decisions appear to be a consequence of the cognitive constraints faced by our respondents, which in turn provides empirical support for the bounded rationality hypothesis. On a macro level, our behavioural consumption function generates results that are comparable with those produced by the optimising model employed in this thesis. Our results also question the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis (as it is usually applied), despite making adjustments to the model which remove the underlying assumption of known, constant real interest use
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Arguile, Wayne Peter. "Performance of defensive shares on the JSE during financial crisis: evidence from analysis of returns and volatility." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002736.
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This study analyses whether historically defensive sectors on the JSE have – with respect to the market – proven to be defensive during the recent global financial crisis. By withstanding the shocks of market volatility, defensive industries (such as pharmaceuticals and consumer staples) are renowned for their consistent performance throughout the business cycle. Using daily data for the period 2000–2009, the study compares the descriptive statistics of sector returns before and during the crisis. The volatility of each sector relative to the market index is calculated using the CAPM beta and a simplified volatility ratio. The same comparison is extended to the conditional volatilities of each of the sectors, which is estimated using the GARCH model and two of its extensions: the EGARCH and GJR GARCH models. While no sector experienced a positive mean return during the financial crisis, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Industrials all proved less volatile than the market. Surprisingly, Telecommunications proved more volatile than the market and experienced leverage effects during the financial crisis. Since the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, defensive securities were found to be a useful investment tool for protection against adverse movements in the stock market.
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Kiefer, Hua. "Essays on applied spatial econometrics and housing economics." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1180467420.
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Zhao, Mingjun. "Essays on model uncertainty in macroeconomics." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1153244452.
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Lindahl, Ida, and Elisabeth Wendel. "Revisorns oberoende vid fristående rådgivning : det ständiga dilemmat." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Institutionen Handels- och IT-högskolan, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-17853.
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Revisorn anlitas för att ge ett oberoende yttrande som ska säkerställa pålitligheten i företagensfinansiella rapporter. Denna tilltrosskapandande effekt kan endast uppnås om revisorn görsina bedömningar och fattar beslut utan att låta sig påverkas av andra personers viljor ellerönskningar. Att revisorn är oberoende är särskilt viktigt i de fall revisorernas arbete påverkarintressenters beslutsfattande. Diskussionen kring revisorns oberoende i samband medtillhandahållandet av fristående rådgivning har debatterats flitigt. Vissa menar att denfristående rådgivningen medför positiva effekter på revisionen, medan andra anser att denborde förbjudas då den utgör ett hot mot revisorns oberoende och påverkar förtroendet förbranschen. Genom införandet av revisionspaketet står revisionsbranschen inför nyaregleringar av oberoendet och den fristående rådgivningen. Denna uppsats ämnar fördjupadiskussionen och undersöka varför det kan upplevas som ett problem när en revisionsbyrå, irollen som oberoende kontrollorgan, erbjuder både fristående rådgivning och revision.Frågeställningen besvaras med hjälp av relevanta teorier, modeller och intervjuer medrevisorer, intressenter samt normgivande organ. Den fristående rådgivningen kan medföra attrevisorn inte uppfattas som oberoende och kan utmana förtroendet hos allmänheten. Vidarekan det upplevas som ett problem när den fristående rådgivningen sker på revisionsklienter.Medias skildring av debatten, att det verkar föreligga ett förväntningsgap samt en bristandetransparens kan även det vara bidragande orsaker till problematiken. Revisionspaketet kankomma att öka transparensen, minska förväntningsgapet samt stärka förtroendet för branschenoch kan således komma att minska problematiken med att ett oberoende kontrollorganerbjuder både fristående rådgivning och revision.Program: Civilekonomprogrammet
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Hern, Richard. "Rational choice theory when tastes are changing through time." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.264091.
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Williams, Christopher John. "Exchange rates, expectations and international trade : theory and evidence." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1990. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/66916/.
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Unprecedented movements in real exchange rates during the 1980s led to suspicions of instability in the exchange rate - trade relationships in the UK and elsewhere. 1be research in this thesis investigates the sensitivity of UK trade volumes to movements in the real exchange rate, and considers various interpretations of the alleged parameter instability: econometric misspecification; theoretical inadequacy due to the neglect of possible hysteresis effects and/or the neglect of supply side factors; and the Lucas critique effects of a changed policy regime on expectations formation. Against the background of UK experience we examine specific questions of theory and evidence within partial equilibrium frameworks. These share a common concern: considering the (macro economically important) case of mean reversion in real exchange rate expectations. Clapters two and three introduce mean reversion into Dixit's (1989a) theory model of sunk cost hysteresis in trade. This research uses both analytic and numerical methods to characterise solutions with mean reversion in greater detail than elsewhere and uncovers some striking and unexpected results. Most important is the possible reversal of the stochastic and perfect foresight triggers under asymmetric sunk costs which reflects the essential difference between costly reversibility and strict irreversibility in investment Uncertainty does not always delay action, because the possibility of reversal must be allowed for. Chapter four explores the wider significance of the analysis for similar stochastic saddlepoint models such as the analysis of exchange rate target zones. Chapters five and six consider the significance of the short run dynamic specification of quarterly UK manufactured export volumes equations to the reported instability in estimates of the long run competitiveness elasticity in the light of evidence that UK competitiveness measures follow stationary processes within an institutionally identified policy regime. Hausman specification tests, show that the long run competitiveness elasticity is misspecified and underestimated in recent (error correction mechanism) specifications of UK manufactured export volume equations. This inadequacy reflects the omission of long 'smoothing' lags on the competitiveness variable Subsequently, chapter seven considers simulation evidence from the Dixit model as to the potential relevance of such effects to the UK experience under the large shock to competitiveness of 1980-1 but emphasises that the aggregate implications are not clear cut chapter eight considers whether the expectational effects of the 1979 Thatcher government's change in policy regime can be separated out from the other influences at work behind reduced form models but finds that the data do not support the particular approach adopted. Concluding. we emphasise that the potential importance and complexity of expectational factors and theory combines with the our empirical findings to suggest that exchange rate uncertainty may be crucial to trade behaviour and that macroeconomic adjustment may be inhibited by excess exchange rate uncertainty. Overall export performance may also reflect supply factors which are not captured in existing models, such as hysteretic exit. or expected cost changes. But we doubt whether future research will achieve a data consistent aggregate econometric model of UK trade which is fully grounded in appropriate optimising economic theory with realistic adjustment costs. We may have to settle for approximations to the data generation process which do not employ recent theoretical insights. In that event. the use of such models in policy design should be circumscribed due to the possibility of Lucas critique effects, hysteresis mechanisms and supply side factors.
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Romp, Graham. "Rational dynamic disequilibrium macro models with wage, price and inventory adjustment." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1988. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/109855/.
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This thesis presents original and significant research on the foundations of dynamic disequilibrium macroeconomics and on the implications of such a modelling strategy. It represents a continuation of current research to provide an acceptable alternative to New Classical macroeconomics. Disequilibrium economics, contrary to New Classical economics, does not assume markets continually clear, and is concerned, in principle, with the dynamic response of an economy to disequilibrium by way of both price and quantity adjustments. It is only recently, however, that the early static disequilibrium models have been extended to include dynamics via price adjustment and other intertemporal linkages. This thesis furthers this line of research. Initial chapters concentrate on developing a rational basis for quantity constrained models, while subsequent chapters develop and analyse specific open and closed economy dynamic disequilibrium models. Chapters 2-4 critically assess New Classical economics; show that imperfect price adjustment can be derived from rational economic behaviour, given the presence of imperfect information and learning, incomprehensively indexed contracts, and small-menu costs; and discuss various disequilibrium modelling strategies. Chapters 5-6 employ the chosen modelling strategy (based on Sneessens, 1981) to develop dynamic disequilibrium models. Intertemporal linkages are established via wage, price and inventory adjustment. These models are used to test ‘the robustness of previously derived results and provide new results. Significant insights are gained into the possibility of long-run non-Walrasian equilibria, the existence of limit cycles, the importance of wage and price adjustment, and the behaviour of exchange rates within regime switching models. Further these models aid our understanding of trade and inventory cycles. Finally we analyse the effectiveness of government policy in the various disequilibrium models. Not all the New Classical policy conclusions remain valid when imperfect price adjustment is modelled consistently.
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Pak, Minsok. "Long horizon movements in exchange rates: Great expectations." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 1991. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1342189772.
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Varela, Gonzalo. "Exchange rate expectations, uncertainty and output in the Southern Cone." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2011. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7345/.
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In this thesis we investigate the effects of real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty on output in the context of Southern Cone economies. The first chapter provides a framework to analyze the output effects of RER uncertainty when firms contract dollar-debt and no hedging instruments are available, by focusing on the channel uncertainty-output operating through the firms financial strategy. An increase in uncertainty increases the probability of bankruptcy, raising expected marginal bankruptcy costs, and reducing optimal output of a risk-neutral firm. We find the output response to uncertainty shocks to depend on firms' liquidity balances, trade orientation and perceptions about government assistance if large exchange rate movements occur. The second chapter examines empirically RER uncertainty effects on sectoral output for 28 manufacturing sectors in the Southern Cone over 1970-2002. We use alternative uncertainty measures allowing different degrees of sophistication in agents' expectation mechanisms to estimate a supply function. We use instrumental variable techniques to address potential simultaneity problems. Results suggest a negative non-negligible effect of uncertainty on output, threshold effects, and sectoral heterogeneity, explained by trade orientation, the intensity with which sectors trade within Mercosur and by sectoral productivity. The fourth chapter investigates the importance of past exchange rate behaviour when forming expectations and tests for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) hypothesis in Uruguay. Using interest rate differentials over 1980-2010 we identify a strong extrapolative component in expectations, following an inverted-U pattern over time. Agents internalise announcements and shocks that may affect fundamentals. Deviations from UIP are low for high-inflation periods, and highfor low-inflation periods and freely floating regimes. As long as what it takes to predict well is simple (look backwards, follow announcements), interest rate differentials perform well. Once exchange rate determination becomes intricate, agents fail at predicting. This finding remains unchanged when survey data are used for the period 2005-2010.
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Hindmoor, Andrew. "Socialism and entrepreneurship : a rational choice approach to an issue of compatibility." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1997. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1463/.
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A theoretical study of the feasibility of socialism. Politically, socialism is characterised by equality, democracy and liberty. Economically, it is assumed (i) that the feasibility of socialism depends upon its ability to generate growth, and (ii) that growth is secured through entrepreneurial activity. Economic theory is used to delineate the concept of entrepreneurship and to explore the nature and limitations of capitalist entrepreneurship and political theory is used to identify possible incompatibilities between socialism and entrepreneurship. Underlying many of these arguments is a claim for the existence of a trade-off between efficiency and equality. The capacity of market socialism to either transcend or minimise this trade-off is considered. Three forms of market socialism are examined. The first is drawn from Joseph Carens' work on moral incentives, the second from theories of the labour-managed firm and the third from new public management. The socialist credentials and capacity of each to generate entrepreneurial activity are appraised. Examples drawn upon include Israeli Kibbutzim, the Spanish Mondragon cooperative, British nationalised industries and the Japanese computer industry. Economic new institutionalism, welfare economics and Austrian economic theory are all on occasions used but the principle methodology is rational choice. Specifically, theory principle agent analysis and William Niskanen's of the budget - using bureaucracy shown capable, illuminating discussion. Given even the assumption of egoism it is argued that through careful institutional and organisational design, tensions between socialism and entrepreneurship can be alleviated.
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Krabuanrat, Tanasak. "Electronic communication and manager's media choice : a structural equation modelling from rational and social perspectives." Thesis, City University London, 2000. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/7586/.
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This exploratory study examines the communication media choice of managers. Despite a substantial body of theories on media choice, inadequacies are apparent in the literature particularly in relation to modem communication technologies. A field study approach was adopted to explore some of these inadequacies and to study the media choice of subject from a manager background. Overall, within the limitations and confines of this exploratory study, this thesis has made the following contributions. First, this thesis identifies and has demonstrate at the unduly narrow focus on task equivocality in prior media choice studies has undermined the study's ability to explain the observed media choice. There is a need to consider the full range of task characteristics in explaining the communication media choice process. Second, Information Richness Theory( IRT) has enjoyed acceptance information systems researchers throughout the last decade,b ut recent unfavourable empirical evidence has precipitated a shift away from it and a search for a new theory. The application of social interaction theories responded to the problem of media richness/social presence by postulating that media selection, like most tasks in organisations, is influenced by a combination of social forces. This means that , while the media richness/social presence scale matching tasks with media would apply in most cases, it is perfectly predictable that some groups or individuals will define either tasks or media traits differently, thus explaining the problems with media richness/social presence theories. Third, drawing together ideas in the literature a broad overview of the media choice process is developed into a comprehensive framework model. A novel aspect of this framework is, to find whether Information richness and Social interaction theories directly influence media choice; or the Social interaction theories influence media choice indirectly through the Information richness theory.
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Семененко, Тетяна Олексіївна, Татьяна Алексеевна Семененко, and Tetiana Oleksiivna Semenenko. "Інфляційні очікування: історія питання та проблеми сьогодення." Thesis, Дніпропетровський національний університет імені Олеся Гончара, 2010. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/63922.
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Інфляційні очікування – процес реагування економічних суб’єктів на інформацію про загальне зростання цін в минулому періоді або передбачуване, прогнозоване їх зростання в майбутньому періоді. В економічній літе-ратурі широко поширені дві теорії з цього питання. Основою формування інфляційних очікувань є інформаційне підґрунтя щодо загрози неминучого зростання цін.Inflation expectations – is a reaction process of the economic actors about the inflation rate in the previous period or predicted, presumed inflation rate in the future period. Two theories about this topic are quite popular in the economic lit-erature. Informational background is considered to be the reason of inevitable prices growth.
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Henry, Olan Thomas John. "The rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure : an economic analysis of the U.S. treasury yield curve 1952-1991." Thesis, University of Reading, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.262456.
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Kortbeek, Nancy L. "The oppression remedy, the reasonable expectations test and the economic theory of incomplete contracting." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape9/PQDD_0006/MQ40131.pdf.
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Julia, Draeb. "Reexamining the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: an Out-of-Sample Forecasting Perspective." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1623251442890825.
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Frömmel, Tomáš. "A Contribution to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Uncertainty and Price Expectations." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-205312.
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Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic assumption. Various regimes of monetary policy are discusses in the context of price expectations.
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Chad, Bretton. "Compounding the Sacred and the Profane: How Economic Theory Brings New Insight to the Growth and Decline of American Protestantism." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1263.
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In this thesis, economic theory and models will be used to analyze trends of religious growth and decline within the United States. These theories and models, such as Rational Choice Theory, will be applied in order to better understand and gain new insight into shifts and changes within the religious landscape of the United States. Recent trends of growth and decline within Protestantism, the most prominent Christian tradition in America, will be the focus of the investigation. As its main focus, this thesis will ultimately demonstrate that the trends of decline in the mainline Protestant tradition opposed to the trends of growth in the evangelical Protestant tradition can be best understood by focusing on the unique relationship between a religious organization’s degree of tension with society and that organization’s congregational attendance.
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Shen, Fei. "An economic theory of political communication effects how the economy conditions political learning /." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1243880056.
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Dafnos, Stavros. "Five essays in applied economic theory and times series econometrics with applications to accounting and economics." Thesis, Brunel University, 2017. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/15618.
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We employ some of the modern tools of economic theory and time series econometrics to consider a number of economic problems. The communication and coordination problems we study are relevant in accounting, business, economics and finance. The thesis begins by examining the behaviour of people and organisations, who are supposed to share a common goal. Then it considers the equilibriating mechanisms of behaviour by groups of economic agents, who usually have conflicting interests. We apply the tools of non-cooperative game theory, which constitutes a large part of modern economic theory. In the sequel, we address the question of why people behave the way they do in their economic a↵airs. Peoples' economic behaviour is mirrored in the aggregates of macroeconomics. We propose a Time Varying Autoregressive model to study the movements in the five main macroeconomic variables. The methods come from standard Time Series Analysis, but we do introduce some innovative time series techniques. Finally, we conduct an empirical investigation of the movements in one of the five main macroeconomic variables, the rate of inflation. Among the econometric tools employed are standard Autoregressive models (AR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag models (ADL) and the more recent Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology.
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Chalak, Karim Marwan. "Essays on the definition, identification, and estimation of causal effects." Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2007. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3259625.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2007.Title from first page of PDF file (viewed June 21, 2007). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Van, Valkenburg Ingrid C. "The Factors for Choosing a Partner: Using Economic Theory to Enhance Readings of Jane Austen's Sense and Sensibility and Pride and Prejudice." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2014. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/scripps_theses/460.
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Money factors into the lives of all of Jane Austen’s heroines and, in many of her novels, the heroines struggle on the marriage market. Austen concludes every one of her novels with the marriage of the heroine and, while Austen made the choice to become a writer instead of marrying, she is consequently very mindful of what marriage means for each of her heroines and who they ultimately choose for a husband. Given that economics is the social science concerned with how individuals and institutions make optimal choices under conditions of scarcity, knowledge of some of the basic concepts in economics and an understanding of the economic theory behind how people make choices can enhance readings of Sense and Sensibility and Pride and Prejudice. Through a survey of some of the existing economic literature on marriage, I demonstrate how one might apply economic theory to these two novels. Subsequently, I explore how there are limits on how far the economics of marriage can be extended to analyze Austen’s novels, but ultimately conclude that the theory presented nevertheless helps explain how many of the characters choose their future partner.