Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Rational risk management'

There is qualitative and anecdotal evidence that corporate management deviates from received risk management theory. These deviations include: an overall hesitancy to accept projects with greater levels of total risk, increased return requirements compensating for firm-specific risk, employment of hedging strategies, the insuring of diversifiable risks, corporate diversification outside of the industry constraint, and the utilization of portfolio and other variance reducing methods. The literature primarily contributes these behaviors to principal/agent conflicts. Evidence from studies on these deviations support strong arguments based in resource scarcity, cost and availability of capital, employee/community stability, and the increases in bankruptcy costs that these risk management deviation are in the interest of shareholders. When considered in the context of the long-term impact on value, the observed deviations from received corporate risk management theory contribute substantively to the perpetuation of the firm as a long-term store of value. This paper supports two hypotheses: (1) the deviation from received risk management theory by corporate managers is broadly practiced, and (2) these deviations are generally in the interest of shareholders.
Master of Arts

Introduction to problem: Many software development projects today have a tendency to fail on some level. Even though they may not fail entirely, they might be completed with schedule delays, budget overrun or with poor quality that do not meet the customer?s requirements. When a project fails in some way, it is because one or many project risks have occurred. Our own opinion in this matter is that if the project team members are more aware of the project?s risks, it might increase the probability of project success. Therefore, we wanted to explore the area of risk awareness. We contacted Volvo Information Technology AB and through discussions we decided to investigate risk awareness when using one of their software project methods. That method was the Rational Unified Process. This report has not been conducted because Volvo IT considers this to be a problem that they wanted to investigate. Instead, we wanted to investigate this since we find the area of risk awareness among project team members interesting and we were able to do this with help from Volvo IT. Even though we mention the term ?project success? in this report, we will not investigate this in the report. Hypothesis: ?By using the Rational Unified Process, a higher awareness of the risks can be achieved by all team members of the project? Aim: The aim of this report is to investigate if risk awareness among project team members increases when software development projects make use of the Rational Unified Process. Method: We have used a web-based questionnaire to gather information. Four projects at Volvo Information Technology AB were contacted and asked to participate in the questionnaire. Two of these were using RUP and two did not use RUP. Personal e-mails were later sent out to each of the project managers with a description of the aim of our research and the way it would be carried out. The participants had a total of seven workdays to fill out the questionnaire. After seven days the site of the questionnaire were closed down. Conclusion: The differences in answers to certain questions have been rather significant between the two project methods. On the whole though, the answers have been positive for both project methods from a risk awareness point of view. Therefore, it seems to us that risk awareness is not dependent on the project method that is being used. We feel that we have not received enough convincing proof that members of RUP projects possess a higher awareness of project risks than non-RUP project members. Therefore we are of the opinion that we cannot verify our hypothesis.
Introduktion till problem: Många av dagens mjukvaru-projekt har en tendens till att misslyckas på ett eller annat sätt. Även om de inte misslyckas helt, kan det hända att de slutförs med förseningar, stora kostnader utanför budgetens ramar eller med otillräcklig kvalitet som inte motsvarar kundernas krav. Anledningen till att ett projekt misslyckas på något sätt är att en eller flera projekt-risker har inträffat. Vår åsikt i detta ämne är att om projekt-medlemmarna har högre medvetenhet om sitt projekts risker kan detta leda till en ökad sannolikhet att projektet "lyckas". Vi ville därför undersöka området risk-medvetenhet närmare. Vi kontaktade Volvo Information Technology AB och genom diskussioner bestämde vi oss för att undersöka risk-medvetenhet vid användandet av en av deras mjukvaru-projekts metoder. Denna metod var The Rational Unified Process. Denna rapport har inte genomförts på grund av att Volvo IT anser detta vara ett problem som de ville ha undersökt. Istället ville vi själva undersöka detta eftersom vi tycker att risk-medvetenhet bland projektets medlemmar är ett intressant område som borde undersökas. Vi kunde genomföra detta tack vare hjälp från Volvo IT. Även om vi nämner begreppet "lyckade projekt" i rapporten, kommer vi i rapporten inte att undersöka detta. Hypotes: "Genom att använda sig av the Rational Unified Process, kan man uppnå en högre risk-medvetenhet bland projektets samtliga medlemmar" Syfte: Syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka om risk-medvetenheten bland projektets medlemmar ökar när mjukvaru-projekt använder sig av the Rational Unified Process. Metod: Vi har använt en web-baserad enkät för att samla information. Vi kontaktade fyra projekt på Volvo Information Technology AB och frågade om de ville medverka i vår enkät. Två av dessa projekt använde the Rational Unified Process och två gjorde det inte. Personliga e-mail skickades senare ut till varje projektledare med förklaring till syftet med undersökningen samt sättet den skulle genomföras på. Deltagarna hade totalt sju arbetsdagar att fylla i enkäten. Efter dessa sju dagar stängdes sidan med undersökningen. Slutsats: Skillnaden i svar på vissa av frågorna var ganska markanta mellan de två projekt metoderna. Dock, från ett risk-medvetenhets perspektiv, var svaren på det hela taget positiva för båda projekt metoderna. Därför verkar det som att risk-medvetenhet inte är beroende av vilken projekt-metod som används. Vi anser oss inte ha tillräckliga belägg för att medlemmar av projekt som använder the Rational Unified Process besitter en högre risk-medvetenhet än projekt som inte använder sig av denna metod. Vi anser därför att vi inte kan verifiera vår hypotes.
Sophie Eklund 0739-078698 Daniel Gunnarsson 0737-344243

La conquête des espaces depuis le XVème siècle a permis la reconnaissance du principe de souveraineté des États sur leurs ressources naturelles. Le XXIème siècle doit faire face à l'épuisement progressif des ressources naturelles fossiles mondiales et à la quête de nouvelles. Les tensions autour de la gestion actuelle mondiale des ressources naturellesont posé le constat d'une régulation juridique fragile, et l'idée d'adopter d'autres gouvernances reposant sur un mode de gestion nouveau. Cette autre approche, intergénérationnelle serait basée sur une gestion raisonnée au sens de rationnelle, équilibrée et adaptée des systèmes endémiques. Or, ce basculement place la question de la gestiondes ressources naturelles mondiales au coeur des priorités inter-générationnelles. Le XXIème siècle permet alors de réfléchir à la reconnaissance juridique du principe d'interdépendance entre l'Homme et la Nature. Mais cette réflexion juridique vient a contrario des politiques publiques et modes de gestion traditionnels. L'Europe a amorcé une réactivité effective. La France a suivi par l'adoption de la charte de l’environnement, les lois dites Grenelle I et II, la loi sur la transition énergétique. Certains États Andins ont inscrit ce principe dans leur constitution. L'approche juridique contemporaine de la gestion des ressources naturelles mondiales renvoit ainsi à d'autres modes de gouvernance et à des notions de territoires endémiques et d'intérêt général commun. Les enjeux juridiques environnementaux mondiaux reposent alors sur denouvelles politiques sécuritaires anticipatives, renforçant les liens de coopération existants face à la multiplicité des sources d’autorité et de pouvoir
The conquest of space since the fifteenth century allowed the recognition of the principle of sovereignty of States over their natural resources. The XXI century is facing the depletion of global fossil natural resources and the pursuit of new. Tensionsaround the world present management of natural resources posed the finding of a weak legal regulation, and the idea of adopting other governance based on a new mode of management. The other approach, intergenerational would be based on a reasoned management in the sense of rational, balanced and adapted endemic systems. But this shift puts the issue of the management of global natural resources at the heart of intergenerational priorities. The XXI century then allows to reflect on the legal recognition of the principle of interdependence between Man and Nature. But this legal thinking isa contrario of public policies and traditional management methods. Europe has initiated an effective response. France followed by the adoption of the charter of the environment, the laws say Grenelle I and II, the Law on energy transition. SomeAndean States have included this principle in their constitutions. The contemporary legal approach to the management of global natural resources and returns to other modes of governance and to notions of endemic areas of common public interest. Global environmental legal issues while based on new proactive security policies, strengthening existing ties of cooperation to face the multiplicity of sources of authority and power

The management of health and safety risks in the oil refinery tends to be centred on the collection and simulation of technical data which can then be used to make decisions on the wellbeing of the workforce as well as the refinery installations. While the number crunching in the process is immensely vital, there tends to be a problem of ignoring or, at the very least, side-lining the social-cultural values of the people dealing with health and safety risk assessment processes. The economic driver for the operation of the oil refinery tends to be more important because of the generally huge initial financial outlay, and the eventual high costs of maintenance; hence health and safety risk management should have evidence of ensuring that the installations, as well as the people that work in them, are well catered for. In the Kuwait Gulf Oil Company this problem is more evident in newer installations where lean management processes have been instituted by oil firms so that they can reduce waste in the oil refining process without compromising the occupational health and safety needs of the refinery. Therein lies the initial problem of integrating health and safety risk assessment processes because most approaches concentrate on the technical elements of waste elimination while ignoring the social-cultural factors that impact on the health and safety of the workforce. This is an exploratory piece of research that examines the impact of rational and cognitive decision theories – herein called the psychology of risk – and how they impact on the occupational health and safety systems in the oil and gas refining sector of Kuwait. The research concludes that the application of lean concepts in the oil refining process is noble in itself but it needs to be integrated with the rational and cognitive detection factors that are necessary to incorporate and support the social-cultural tendencies of the workforce. The research recommends a framework for incorporating social-cultural values in the decision making process pertaining to health and safety risk assessment in oil refining process plants. Key Words: occupational health and safety risk assessment; lean management; social-cultural values; rational and cognitive decision making; oil and gas process plants.

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), although rare, is the commonest endocrine malignancy, with a significant recent increase in incidence. Natural history is well understood: the majority of patients have an extremely good prognosis, but with a tendency for late recurrences, up to twenty years post diagnosis. These features have combined to effect a lack of evidence underlying current practice, the majority of guidelines based around retrospective series and opinion. A number of validated risk stratification systems exist, unique to DTC, some applicable at the point of intervention. Although these systems reliably predict outcome, they are inconsistently used to guide the extent of intervention. As such, the three main facets of treatment, surgery to the thyroid, surgery to the lymph nodes, and radioiodine (RAI), are variably applied to the same extent of disease. This may depend at least partly upon the clinician‟s preference towards use of risk stratification systems. Consequently, low risk patients may be at risk of morbidities, both short and long term from unnecessarily aggressive interventions, despite consistently good prognosis. Rationalisation of the approach is attractive from a patient, provider, and health service perspectives; without controlled or long term data, such change in practice requires justification. Aim The overall aim of this thesis is to describe and compare the clinical effectiveness of risk stratified (RS) management of DTC, compared to non risk stratified (NRS) management, in an adult population. UK context is provided by description of current practice and long term disease specific outcomes. Three strands of work are combined to address this aim. Part One: Systematic Review A comparison of RS/NRS approaches necessitated objective and reproducible definition of practice overall, encompassing the three facets of intervention. Thereafter, rigorous methodology was applied to examine the clinical effectiveness of the two approaches, based on review of 76 datasets identified from the literature, with RS/NRS approach assigned; there were no relevant randomised trials nor prospective comparative series. Patients, disease and practice were described and compared, with outcome data grouped by safety, disease control, and survival. Sensitivity analysis was planned around population and practice items. Study quality vi was objectively assessed. Weighted mean effect sizes were calculated for RS/NRS cohorts and compared across the two intervention groups for each outcome, with findings further tested on sensitivity analysis. Broadly, equivalence was shown across the two treatment groups by outcome, with small differences consistent with disease biology/magnitude of intervention. Risk stratification appeared to be applicable not only to primary intervention, but also follow-up strategies. Variations in outcome definitions were highlighted, and a pragmatic, patient-centred definition favoured as an approach for future work. Lack of time-specific data was a significant limiting factor. Part Two: Description and Analysis of UK Practice With no UK dataset within the systematic review, validity for the findings was required, as well as the need to describe and compare practice and outcomes in a contemporary local context. The ideal dataset was defined and participants for a UK collaborative sought. Five centres contributed datasets of adequate quality, at least in part prospective, with time-specific outcome measures. Overall, UK practice was by definition risk stratified – and appeared increasingly so over time. There was considerable variation in practice across the five centres (2 NRS, 3RS), but all with consistent, equivalent outcomes compared with the review, despite patients of somewhat higher risk. Utilising methodologies from the systematic review, the analysis was repeated and augmented, confirming consistency in effect directions. Time-specific, adjusted outcome measures demonstrated a possible lack of effectiveness of RAI in high risk disease – a new finding worthy of further exploration. The comprehensive datasets further reinforced the need to work towards prospective, long term, time specific data with common agreed definitions, and suggestions are made how this can be achieved. Part Three: National Survey of Practice Preference The current UK preference for RS management, notwithstanding current service provision around thyroid cancer, is little known. Through cross-specialty survey, utilising a number of case scenarios validated by external experts, and gathering data on clinician demographics, this information was sought, in order to give further context to the above findings. A high degree of variation was identified within, and across scenarios; the least RS preference for intervention applied to the lowest risk scenarios, implying risk of over-treatment. RS preference was associated independently with fewer years in practice and high volume practice. Conclusion Based on the best available data, and supplemented by congruent, contemporary UK data and perspectives, this thesis confirms safety and equivalence of effectiveness of a risk stratified approach to the management of differentiated thyroid cancer, demonstrates considerable variations in practice and suggests possible tools towards building a better evidence base for the future.

The examination of the topic of market risk management in Islamic finance is a complex endeavour. At a basic level, the subject matter, being multifarious in a manner that mixes religion and economics, requires the conjoining of religious faith with scientific objectivity in order to ascertain the truth contained in the scripture as it pertains to the Mua’amalat (dealings between individuals) matter of entering into financial contracts with others to manage market risk exposures. Moreover, the complexity is compounded due to the need to disentangle the ambiguity that has beset the discourse on the topic due to historically being mostly legal-centric with a focus on debating the contractual elements rather than attempting to comprehensively address the myriad issues that relate to market risk management in contemporary contexts. These issues, for the most part, revolve around the reliance on market risk transfer as a strategy and derivative contracts, with monetary underlying variables, as tools to implement that strategy. Thus, the journey of investigating the rationale, permissibility, and usage of derivative hedging instruments for market risk management in Islamic finance is, essentially, an undertaking that seeks to engage in a wide-ranging and multi-layered examination of the subject matter as well as the exploration of new areas of relative significance. This, in turn, and subsequent to the analysis of data generated from documentary sources and forty-one interviews which were collected from numerous sources within four locations, led to the elaboration of the contention that market risk management through derivative instruments for legitimate hedging purposes should not be prohibited in the Shari’a, albeit with certain conditions that limit unproductive behaviour. The basis for the aforementioned contention is built on the fact that market risk management has undergone a paradigm shift in how exposures are identified and measured as well as in the emergence of innovative tools which can result in a better ability to address the opportunities and challenges facing institutions that provide value to society (i.e., the real sector). Moreover, there is little substantive evidence that proves that the utilization of derivative instruments for hedging purposes leads its users to partaking in transactions that circumvent the prohibition of Riba (usury), Gharar (excessive uncertainty), and Maysir (gambling). In effect, the derivative instruments used for the management of market risks are not only disassociated from usurious debt transactions, they are also transacted in the financial markets in a manner that is transparent to all the parties involved. Along the same lines, the prohibition of Maysir, which is apparently an overarching concern, should be conceptualized with the focus on the proscription of the act of gambling, not necessarily the instruments (e.g., derivatives) and/or any particular framework (e.g., zero-sum arrangements). Ultimately, one should be cognizant of the fact that the true intentions of Islamic jurisprudence in Mua’amalat (as a manifestation of divine guidance) always centre on human well-being. Accordingly, the religious prohibitions are, in essence, within the realm of acts that adversely affect human well-being. This is a constant theme that is present throughout the thesis; and is one that exists at the heart of a wider aspiration of its adoption to a greater extent than is currently present in the Islamic finance discourse.

Backgounding beef cattle is an inherently risky venture. Producers faceproduction risks as well as marketing risks. If a backgrounding operation is to be viable,these risks should be addressed and effectively managed. While some effective riskmanagement tools are currently available to livestock producers, some other potentiallyuseful risk management tools, for various reasons, have been previously unavailable.Two such tools which could help livestock producers achieve the overall goal ofmanaging net income risk are a program for managing feed ingredient nutrient and pricevariability in the selection of minimum cost feed rations and government subsidizedlivestock price insurance.Due to lack of data and limited computational power of solvers, risk has seldombeen introduced into the feed ration selection process. Presently, both feed ingredientnutritional data and appropriate solvers are available, allowing for risk to be fullyconsidered in this decision-making process. Only recently has there been policy effortsto establish subsidized price or revenue insurance for livestock producers. Theintroduction of such insurance to livestock producers offers potential risk managementbenefit but also has the potential to introduce improper incentives to livestock producers.This study will evaluate both of the aforementioned livestock risk managementtools. In addition to evaluating their effectiveness, the policy concerns of subsidizedlivestock insurance will also be addressed. Results will be relevant to a broad range ofentities. In addition to livestock producers wishing to manage the risks associated withtheir operations, agribusinesses that provide service to these producers such as feed salesor financial lending will benefit from knowing how these risk management strategiesperform. Furthermore, policy makers who will structure livestock insurance products canhopefully do so more efficiently based on the results of the livestock insurance analysis.

Research and Development engineering is at the corner stone of humanity’s evolution. It is perceived to be a systematic creative process which ultimately improves the living standard of a society through the creation of new applications and products. The commercial paradigm that governs project selection, resource allocation and market penetration prevails when the focus shifts from pure research to applied research. Furthermore, the road to success through commercialisation is difficult for most inventors, especially in a vast and isolated country such as Australia which is located a long way from wealthy and developed economies. While market leading products are considered unique, the actual process to achieve these products is essentially the same; progressing from an idea, through development to an outcome (if successful). Unfortunately, statistics indicate that only 3% of ‘ideas’ are significantly successful, 4% are moderately successful, and the remainder ‘evaporate’ in that form (Michael Quinn, Chairman, Innovation Capital Associates Pty Ltd). This study demonstrates and analyses two techniques developed by the author which reduce uncertainty in the engineering design and development phase of new product development and therefore increase the probability of a successful outcome. This study expands the existing knowledge of the engineering design and development stage in the new product development process and is couched in the identification of practical methods, which have been successfully used to develop new products by Australian Small Medium Enterprise (SME) Excel Technology Group Pty Ltd (ETG). Process theory is the term most commonly used to describe scientific study that identifies occurrences that result from a specified input state to an output state, thus detailing the process used to achieve an outcome. The thesis identifies relevant material and analyses recognised and established engineering processes utilised in developing new products. The literature identified that case studies are a particularly useful method for supporting problem-solving processes in settings where there are no clear answers or where problems are unstructured, as in New Product Development (NPD). This study describes, defines, and demonstrates the process of new product development within the context of historical product development and a ‘live’ case study associated with an Australian Government START grant awarded to Excel Technology Group in 2004 to assist in the development of an image-based vehicle detection product. This study proposes two techniques which reduce uncertainty and thereby improve the probability of a successful outcome. The first technique provides a predicted project development path or forward engineering plan which transforms the initial ‘fuzzy idea’ into a potential and achievable outcome. This process qualifies the ‘fuzzy idea’ as a potential, rationale or tangible outcome which is within the capability of the organisation. Additionally, this process proposes that a tangible or rationale idea can be deconstructed in reverse engineering process in order to create a forward engineering development plan. A detailed structured forward engineering plan reduces the uncertainty associated with new product development unknowns and therefore contributes to a successful outcome. This is described as the RETRO technique. The study recognises however that this claim requires qualification and proposes a second technique. The second technique proposes that a two dimensional spatial representation which has productivity and consumed resources as its axes, provides an effective means to qualify progress and expediently identify variation from the predicted plan. This spatial representation technique allows a quick response which in itself has a prediction attribute associated with directing the project back onto its predicted path. This process involves a coterminous comparison between the predicted development path and the evolving actual project development path. A consequence of this process is verification of progress or the application of informed, timely and quantified corrective action. This process also identifies the degree of success achieved in the engineering design and development phase of new product development where success is defined as achieving a predicted outcome. This spatial representation technique is referred to as NPD Mapping. The study demonstrates that these are useful techniques which aid SMEs in achieving successful new product outcomes because the technique are easily administered, measure and represent relevant development process related elements and functions, and enable expedient quantified responsive action when the evolving path varies from the predicted path. These techniques go beyond time line representations as represented in GANTT charts and PERT analysis, and represent the base variables of consumed resource and productivity/technical achievement in a manner that facilitates higher level interpretation of time, effort, degree of difficulty, and product complexity in order to facilitate informed decision making. This study presents, describes, analyses and demonstrates an SME focused engineering development technique, developed by the author, that produces a successful new product outcome which begins with a ‘fuzzy idea’ in the mind of the inventor and concludes with a successful new product outcome that is delivered on time and within budget. Further research on a wider range of SME organisations undertaking new product development is recommended.

碩士
國立中央大學
土木工程學系碩士在職專班
96
“The World Summit on Sustainable Development” at Johannesburg in South Africa on August, 2002 declared that the ambition of 21st century is to seek sustainable development. In the past, Taiwan seriously ignored the sustainable operating in constructional process to pursue economics. In addition to conclude 2003 as”The First Year of The Sustainable Era”, Public Construction Commission, Executive Yuan also drafted ”The Medium-Term Summary Plan on Sustainable Development in Public Construction” which includes the sustainable operation and strategy on constructional configuration, development and eco-building. According the internal research, the CO2 discharge rate of Taiwan constructional industry is up to 28.8％ of the total CO2 discharge rate in Taiwan. From building, decorating, using to dismantling a construction, it consumes a great deal of energy, water and resource, and the expense on operating stage costs over half of the total constructional life cycle cost. Even, the needs of material, energy consuming and equipment to establish a high-riser building are much larger and expensive than a general one. In order to advance the economic benefit on public construction, the ways to analyze the constructional life cycle cost and to judge the benefit both on new-built and existing construction to minimize the economic impact, to extend construction life by effective plan, to reduce maintaining operation cost are the important issues to reach sustainable development. This research uses the information of 10-year records, recent stats, statute reference and constructional capitalized costs on public high-riser constructions to generalize the maintaining management in operating stage and its main work. This is to provide the decision-makers, executors and managers an estimative reference on related constructional engineering in the future.

Research in risk awareness has been relatively neglected in the health informatics literature, which tends largely to examine project managers’ perspectives of risk awareness; very few studies explicitly address the perspectives held by senior executives such as directors. Another limitation evident in the current risk literature is that studies are often based on American data and/or they are restricted to American culture. Both factors highlight the need to examine how senior executives (i.e., directors) who oversee or direct eHealth projects in Canada perceive risk awareness. This research explores and discusses the perspectives of risk awareness (i.e., identification, analysis, and prioritization) held by directors and project managers who implement Canadian eHealth projects. Semi-structured interviews with nine directors and project managers uncovered six key distinctions in these two groups’ awareness of risk. First, all project managers valued transparency over anonymity, whereas directors believed that an anonymous reporting system for communicating risks had merit. Secondly, most directors emphasized the importance of evidence-based planning and decision making when balancing risks and opportunities, an aspect none of the project managers voiced. Thirdly, while project managers noted that the level of risk tolerance may evolve from being risk-averse to risk-neutral, directors believed that risk tolerance evolved toward risk-seeking. Directors also noted the importance of employing risk officers, a view that was not shared by project managers. Directors also believed the risk of too little end-user engagement and change management was the most important risk, whereas project managers ranked it as the least important. Finally, when directors and project managers were asked to identify and define the root cause(s) of eHealth risks, directors identified the complexity of health care industry, while project managers attributed it to political pressure and a lack of resources where eHealth projects are concerned. This research proposes that the varied perspectives of risk awareness held by directors and project managers must be considered and integrated to properly align expectations and build partnerships for successful eHealth project outcomes. Understanding risk awareness offers a means to systematically identify and analyze the complex nature of eHealth projects by embracing uncertainties, thereby enabling forward thinking (i.e., staying one step ahead of risks) and the ability to prevent avoidable risks and seize opportunities.
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