Academic literature on the topic 'Real Estate financing'

Lanzhou Yatai Group, as the first listed real estate companies, occupies absolute advantage in the competition of the industry. Especially because of Lanzhou National Economic Development District, Yaitai Group focuses Lanzhou new area asthe target of the advantages and great location. With the business development and planning, the company will also create Lanzhou Yaitai Group Technology Headquarters before 2016, and also will be followed by the huge business opportunities in the real estate industry driven by the financial industry, service industry, catering industry, and the education industry as well. At the same time, the asset number of investment companies in the new district has reached about 0.45 billion, so the vast number of these channels also makes traditional financing be in danger. Banking loans, equity financing, debt financing gradually are difficult to enable the company’s rapid development growing so fast. Large-scale funding and financing inefficiencies of some large-scale projects also make the company’s financial operations meeting some obstacles. In this paper, the author will analyze Yatai Group real estate financing process and the traditional financing channels to predict its financing risk prevention and the Group’s real estate funds operating characteristics of the project. At the same time, we put forward the concept and characteristics of the real estate project financing. After financing inefficiencies of Lanzhou Yatai Group from 2011 to 2014, we make the analysis for real estate projects for the company and make a selection and optimization models. But also for the smooth development of real estate projects in Yatai Group, we provided a positive recommendation, which will become healthy and stable developments of the real estate industry in Gansu Province, and the development and construction of new district will be made as a good expectation.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) frequently collect new financial resources by issuing new shares and bonds or requesting for new loans to finance their investment policy. Due to the low transparency of the market, the success and the cost of financing are significantly affected by the reputation and the guarantee offered by the syndicated consortium. International evidence suggests that the decision to change syndicated banks could impact the success of raising new capital for industrial and financial firms, but there is no concrete evidence which suggests that this is the case in the real estate industry. The paper considers a representative sample of US REITs to examine the frequency of switching decisions in the industry and their relationship with leverage policy. The empirical analysis demonstrates a greater likelihood of creating a new financing consortium when a REIT is poorly performing and the average interest rate is increasing. Moreover, the switching strategy is more frequently adopted when the REIT is planning to increase leverage and the current level of leverage is still far from the target value. Results obtained are robust with respect to the new consortium definition and the initial public offering (IPO) effect.

The role of Islamic financial intuitions is essential in providing Islamic financing specifically to investors and stakeholders to invest in real estate. Therefore, understanding the link of the real estate cycle to the financial institutions is crucial. This is because the real estate cycle is one of the critical elements that will affect financing decisions and strategies of the banking sectors. Hence, this paper employed meta-analysis which aims (1) to systematically review survey the growing literature on real estate cycle and its links to the financial institutions; (2) to highlight possible cross-country trend analysis financial strategy among investors in dealing in with the real estate cycle. The results of the study suggest that during the peak cycle or period of crisis, most investors are risk-averse and increase the risk to the financing of real estate as well. This real estate cycle that occurs almost every 10 years in conventional real estate sectors also give some consequences to the Islamic financial institutions. This paper suggests to investors to understand the real estate cycle and its impact on Islamic financial institutions.

This paper studies how the presence of sponsor and external management affect leverage and debt maturity decisions in three major Asian-Pacific real estate investment trust (REIT) markets: Australia, Japan and Singapore. Our empirical results indicate that sponsored REITs opt for higher levels of leverage and loans with longer maturity. On the contrary, externally managed REITs are associated with lower leverage and loans with shorter maturity. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other firm variables and to alternative specifications. Subsequent to the financial crisis, the impact of sponsorship on debt financing decisions has diminished, and borrowing of externally managed REITs is further constrained.

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the conception of development of financial and credit instruments for the functioning of the residential real estate market in Ukraine, the implementation of which is aimed at improving the efficiency of the functioning of this market. As a result of the study, it is found out that the conception of developing financial and credit instruments for the functioning of the residential real estate market is an integral part of reforming the system of financing investments in residential real estate. The author’s own vision of the essence of the concepts of «system of financing the investments in residential real estate» and «model of financing of the residential real estate market» are proposed. The study of foreign experience allowed to distinguish two main models of financing the residential real estate market – depository and mortgage. The application of comparative analysis showed that the model of financing the residential real estate market in Ukraine is close to the deposit model. It is proposed to improve financing models in the residential real estate market of Ukraine, and to put upon financial institutions the role of escrow agents who will protect the interests of real estate buyers. A systematization is carried out and the conception of development of financial and credit instruments for the functioning of the residential real estate market in Ukraine with the distinguishing of its main elements is presented schematically. Further research will concern the substantiation of individual proposals aimed at the implementation of the tasks specified in the article of the conception of development of financial and credit instruments for the functioning of the residential real estate market in Ukraine.

This article employs a real options approach to investigate the determinants of an optimal capital structure in real estate investment. An investor has the option to delay the purchase of an income-producing property because the investor incurs sunk transaction costs and receives stochastic rental income. At the date of purchase, the investor also chooses a loan-to-value ratio, which balances the tax shield benefit against the cost of debt financing resulting from a higher borrowing rate and a lower rental income. An increase in the sunk cost or the risk of investment will not affect the financing decision, but will delay investment. An increase in the income tax rate or a decrease in the depreciation allowance will encourage borrowing and delay investment, while an increase in the penalty from borrowing, a decrease in the investor's required rate of return, or worse real estate performance through borrowing, will discourage borrowing and delay investment.

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2013.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Appendixes are printed landscape orientation. Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 50-51).
An emerging trend in real estate is the development of sustainable buildings, partially due to the huge environmental impact of the design, construction and operation of commercial buildings. This thesis provides a brief history of the green building movement and the two (2) programs that encourage the development of energy-efficient and sustainable buildings in the United States: the U. S. Green Building Council's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) program and the Energy Star program, jointly sponsored by the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency. This thesis also summarizes a study by Piet Eichholtz, Nils Kok and John Quigley titled "Doing Well by Doing Good? Green Office Buildings" published December 2010 in the American Economic Review. This study found a commercial building with an Energy Star rating will rent for three percent (3%) more per square foot. The addition to effective rent was approximately seven percent (7%). The increase in value for a sale of a green building was as much as sixteen percent (16%). Then, using the same data as Eichholtz, Kok and Quigley, this thesis reports on the location and ownership of these green buildings, and calculates Loan to Value (LTV) ratios using the most recent sales price and financing amounts from the CoStar Group. In addition, the property's current LEED certification status is provided as well as a review of Federal and State incentives for sustainable buildings. The results indicate that more green buildings are located in California, Texas and Colorado. Investment Management firms, National Developer/Owners and Real Estate Investment Trusts own the majority of green properties. The Loan to Value (LTV) ratio for green buildings is no higher than those for conventional office buildings. Not enough information is available to compare mortgage interest rates between green and conventional properties. The number of LEED buildings and level of certification has increased since 2008. The states with the largest number of LEED buildings are California, Texas, Colorado and Virginia, correlating with the top states for green buildings overall. Although a worthy goal, there is limited Federal and State assistance for financing of sustainable buildings.
by Christopher John Pierce.
S.M.in Real Estate Development

Background: The expansive monetary policy of the European Central Bank has been leading to all-time-low interest rates and to a strong move into real estate investment. Low interest rates can work in favor of the investor (due to low interest rate expenditures), but increasing interest rates can jeopardize real estate investments. Since changes in interest rates are unpredictable, an investor needs to deal with this volatility. The capital market offers several financial instruments (so-called “derivatives”) to overcome the above-mentioned obstacle. There is no “one-size-fits-all” strategy. The investor needs to decide which financing structure to combine with which form of derivative. Purpose: The investigation not only explains and shows how real estate financing and hedging strategies on a given project in Germany can work but also explains why it is crucial to link these segments. To achieve this purpose, the return on equity and return cash flows at risk are numerically estimated. The evaluative purpose will be served by using the above-mentioned ratios and cash flows to derive recommendations of action. In doing so, this study will illustrate the importance of hedging, particularly for real estate investors and investors in general. Method: Interest rates on a monthly basis for the period of June 1990 until March 2017 from Thomson Reuters Eikon and real life data from a German real estate investor and a German financial institution were collected. Thereafter, these numbers were used as a basis to perform interest rate and cash flow simulations (Monte Carlo). The simulations were used to determine superior financing and hedging strategies for the investor. Conclusion: The results of this study highlight the benefits from leveraged financing and the necessity of interest rate risk management (hedging) to obtain stabilized future cash flows and reduce volatility caused by fluctuating interest rates. Fixed rate loans offer protection against rising interest rates, but lack flexibility. Floating loans offer more flexibility but are riskier due to the unhedged interest rate exposure.

The goal of this paper is to examine the possibility to use crowdfunding as an alternative to the traditional real estate financing solutions. We have decided to focus on the project owners’ perspective contrary to the investors’ side. During the 80’s and 90’s there was a great influx of venture capital to the start-up market, however, financial crisis of 2000 resulted in a faded interest regarding investing in start-ups. The financial crisis and the new rules regarding banks outgoing loan balance, introduced after the crisis of 2008, Basel III, which created a real estate market that is very hard to penetrate for new developers and small businesses. When the real estate market was at its peak in Sweden it was common to find projects were banks represented 90 percent of the total capital, but the equivalent number today is commonly not representing more than 60 percent. The current state of the market creates a rough climate and difficulties for developers, who are continuously searching for new capital. This is where the notion of crowdfunding becomes important and where support from companies such as Tessin gives a developer the opportunity to bring forth the capital needed to create a project that will create value for its investors. Whether crowdfunding is a complement to traditional funding is what this paper aim to answer. The focus company of this research is Tessin, through conducted interviews, and secondary research about the company and the real estate market, this paper aspire to find out what is a reasonable goal for real estate crowdfunding in Sweden and for Tessin as a platform.
Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka möjligheten att använda crowdfunding som en alternativ finansieringslösning i enskilda fastighetsprojekt. Vi har valt att endast fokusera på projektägarens perspektiv och tar därför mindre hänsyn till investerarens. Under 80- och 90-talet kom en stor tillförsel av riskkapital till start-ups, men efter finanskrisen år 2000 försvann i stort sätt all denna vilja att satsa pengar på start-ups. Detta, i samspel med de restriktiva reglerna för bankutlåning som trädde i kraft i och med Basel III skapade en fastighetsmarknad som är svår penetrerad för nya aktörer och mindre företag. Tidigare hörde en belåningsgrad på fastigheter om 90 procent till vardagen, men idag får många företag vara glada om de blir beviljade 60 procent, detta medför en ständig jakt på kapital för projektutvecklare. Det är här crowdfunding kommer in i bilden. Med hjälp av aktörer som Tessin kan projekten komma över det kapital som krävs för att förverkligas. Huruvida detta kan vara ett komplement till traditionell finansiering har vi försökt att besvara genom att samla information från dels Tessin, dels personer med god insyn i både Tessin och fastighetsmarknaden i allmänhet och dels genom att intervjua projektägare som har använt sig av Tessins tjänst. Detta har vi gjort för att bilda oss en uppfattning om hur läget ser ut idag, men även för att undersöka vad som är ett rimligt mål för Tessin och crowdfunding av fastigheter i allmänhet.

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2015.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 92-93).
Situated in the middle of the capital stack of a property, mezzanine financing in real estate has been established in the form of B-notes, mezzanine loans and preferred equity, allowing the borrower to reduce its equity investment. Emerged in the early 2000's, the US real estate mezzanine market has rapidly expanded mainly due to the credit crunch following the Global Financial Crisis that widened the funding gap between the senior debt and the borrower's equity and, thereby, opened investment opportunity for mezzanine lenders to fill the gap. Meanwhile, major Korean institutional investors, categorized into pension funds, mutual aid associations, life insurers and a sovereign wealth fund, had increasingly invested in foreign real estate, particularly in the form of equity investments in order to enhance investment returns and diversify their portfolio. As asset prices are approaching the pre-crisis level, however, they have started invested in debt products instead of equity investment, focusing on mezzanine debt mainly in the US and UK markets. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the mezzanine investment opportunity in the US real estate market for Korean institutional investors. The US real estate mezzanine investment section introduces the elements of the mezzanine market and investigates the emergence and evolution of the market and specific investment strategies through publication review and an open-ended interview with a US investment manager. The Korean institutional investor section introduces the profile of major Korean institutions and looks into the market environment that led them to move toward debt away from equity and to prefer mezzanine debt for their overseas real estate investments through market research and open-ended interviews with major Korean asset managers. This thesis ends with defining mezzanine investment opportunity and risk in the US real estate market for Korean institutional investors. After a thorough research, it is found that the US mezzanine market is expected to keep creating investment opportunity as long as the funding gap exists. Also, the research makes it clear that mezzanine debt commands higher returns compared to levered equity investment, drawing Korean institutions who pursue higher risk-adjusted returns while avoiding equity investment due to compressing cap rates. As being most advanced, experienced, established and biggest, the US mezzanine market can be the best target market for Korean institutions. However, they have to take into account the current issues of diminishing premium on mezzanine debt and increasing default risk.
by Sang Hoon Jeon.
S.M. in Real Estate Development

In this paper, we discuss bond financing as an interesting source of debt finance for listed real estate companies in Sweden. Furthermore, we compare 10 bonds issued by Swedish real estate companies in 2013. These bonds are analysed from different perspectives and the pricing of each bond is discussed. In addition, this paper will describe the real estate companies’ business concepts and business activities in order to relate these concepts and activities to the size of the coupon rates the issuing real estate firms have to pay. The analysis discusses the pricing of the bonds from the following perspectives: • Company size • Number of issues • Average debt financing costs • Underlying assets • Covered vs. uncovered Our conclusion regarding the pricing of bonds in the real estate sector is that it is dependable on most of the variables above and the interaction between them. As an investor in the bond market, the main focus should be on the issuer’s payment capacity regarding the coupons as well as the principal.
I denna uppsats fördjupar vi oss inom ämnet obligationsfinansiering. Arbetet ska ge en djupare insyn i hur obligationsfinansiering går till samt ge kunskap om andra typer av skuldinstrument som används. Arbetet lägger stor tyngd vid analys och beskrivning av obligationsfinansiering på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden. I analysen jämförs 10 obligationer som emitterats av svenska fastighetsbolag under 2013. Dessa obligationer analyseras ur olika perspektiv och prissättningen på varje enskild obligation diskuteras. Dessutom ska uppsatsen ge en fördjupning av de ingående fastighetsbolagens verksamheter samt affärsidéer, med syfte att söka eventuella samband mellan bolagens verksamheter och storleken på kupongräntor som olika fastighetsbolag får betala. Följande aspekter har beaktats i analysen av hur prissättningen av obligationerna har gått till: • Bolagets storlek • Antal emissioner • Genomsnittliga finansieringskostnader • Bolagets tillgångar • Säkerställda jämfört med icke säkerställda obligationer. Uppsatsen studerar framförallt skillnaden mellan säkerställda och icke-säkerställda obligationer. Hur stor skillnad bör det vara i riskpremie vid investering i en obligation som saknar säkerhet jämfört med en säkerställd obligation från samma emittent? Vår slutsats kring prissättningen av obligationer i fastighetssektorn är att den är beroende av flertalet av faktorerna ovan och samspelet mellan dessa. Som investerare i obligationsmarknaden handlar det dock om att kunna förutse och analysera emittentens betalningsförmåga gällande kuponger (räntor) och återbetalning av obligationernas nominella belopp

Banks have become increasingly restrictive in their lending towards real estate, a development that is expected to continue due to further regulations, such as the Basel framework, and the emergence of new alternative financing options. As described by interview respondents, companies have shown an increased preference for a mix of capital sources following the financial crisis of 2008, which has led to an increase in demand on the capital and alternative markets. Factors that may have affected this development is the inflated corporate interest in maintaining a good credit rating and a change in investor sentiment towards a wider diversification. On the Swedish market, the so-called debt funds are a relatively new phenomenon and the purpose of this paper is to investigate how and what conditions that exist and have been necessary for this development. Debt funds already play a prominent role in real estate funding on other markets, such as US and UK, which could indicate a similar development on the Swedish market henceforth. However, as shown in the paper the markets are different on a systematic level, which makes it hard to draw parallels. Furthermore, as described in the empirical study the Swedish AIF market is underdeveloped in many respects since Swedish companies traditionally have used bank loans or turned to the capital markets - with a preference for equity before debt. With new regulations being introduced in the banking sector, the bank risk appetite has become more volatile, however, the banks retain a strong position and a continued large exposure to the real estate sector which may be due to the banks being well capitalized and an overall increased demand for capital. The increased demand for capital may also have given rise to favorable conditions for alternative financing options. However, in order for debt funds to continue to grow the key is most likely going to be offering loans with more favorable terms and longer maturities compared to other financing options.

Investment in transportation infrastructure projects generates benefits, both direct and indirect. While emissions reductions, crash reductions, and travel time savings are prominent direct benefits, there are indirect benefits in the form of real estate enhancements that could pay off debt or loan incurred in the improvement of the infrastructure itself. Studies have shown that improvements associated with rail transportation (such as station upgrades) trigger an increase in the surrounding real estate values, increasing both the opportunity for monetary gains and, ultimately, property tax collections. There is plenty of available guidance that provides blueprints for benefits calculations for operational improvements in rail transportation. However, resources are quite limited in the analysis of benefits that accrue from the separation of railroad at-grade crossings. Understanding the impact of separation in a neighborhood with high employment or population could generate revenues through increased tax collections. In California, the research need is further amplified by a lack of guidance from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) on at-grade crossing for separation based on revenue generated. There is a critical need to understand whether grade separation projects could impact neighboring real estate values that could potentially be used to fund such separations. With COVID-19, as current infrastructure spending in California is experiencing a reboot, an approach more oriented to benefits and costs for railroad at-grade separation should be explored. Thus, this research uses a robust benefits-to-cost analysis (BCA) to probe the economic impacts of railroad at-grade separation projects. The investigation is carried out across twelve railroad-highway at-grade crossings in California. These crossings are located at Francisquito Ave., Willowbrook/Rosa Parks Station, Sassafras St., Palm St., Civic Center Dr., L St., Spring St. (North), J St., E St., H St., Parkmoor West, and Nursery Ave. The authors found that a majority of the selected at-grade crossings analyzed accrue high benefits-to-cost (BC) ratios from travel time savings, safety improvements, emissions reductions, and potential revenue generated if property taxes are collected and used to fund such separation projects. The analysis shows that with the estimated BC ratios, the railroad crossing at Nursery Ave. in Fremont, Palm St. in San Diego, and H St. in Chula Vista could be ideal candidates for separation. The methodology presented in this research could serve as a handy reference for decision-makers selecting one or more at-grade crossings for the separation considering economic outputs and costs.

Millions of dollars are involved in high-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure construction and maintenance. Large-scale projects like HSR require funding from a variety of avenues beyond those available through public monies. Although HSR serves the general public’s mobility needs, any funds (whether State or Federal) flowing from the public exchequer usually undergo strict review and scrutiny. Funds from public agencies are always limited, making such traditional financing mechanisms unsustainable for fulfilling HSR’s long-term operational and maintenance cost needs—on top of initial costs involved in construction. Therefore, any sustainable means of financing HSR projects would always be welcome. This research presents an alternate revenue generation mechanism that could be sustainable for financing HSR’s construction, operation, and maintenance. The methodology involves determining key HSR stations, which, after development and improvement, could significantly add value to businesses and real estate growth. Any form of real estate taxes levied on properties surrounding such stations could substantially support the HSR project’s funding needs. In this research, a bi-objective optimization problem is posed in conjunction with a Pareto-optimal front framework to identify those key stations. With 28 California HSR stations used as an example, it was observed that the four proposed HSR stations in Fullerton, Millbrae-SFO, San Francisco Transbay Terminal, and San Diego would be excellent candidates for development. Their development could increase the economic vitality of surrounding businesses. The findings could serve as valuable information for California HSR authorities to focus on developing key stations that would generate an alternate funding source for an HSR project facing funding challenges.

Housing issues usually play a major role in urban studies, but are often overlooked as a factor in rural development. This policy brief explores aspects of the dynamics of the ‘frozen’ rural housing market in the Nordic Region, with a specific focus on the role of financing, the part played by municipalities and the potential benefits of a larger rental market.Housing is generally seen as a human right, a consumable that serves as the framework for our lives. However, at the same time, real estate is a financial commodity on the market. In many rural areas, the market value of houses is low – often considerably below the cost of construction. In consequence, it is very difficult to obtain loans to build or buy. This ‘freezes’ the market and has a strong impact on rural development overall, in effect acting as a boost to the trend towards urbanisation and the depopulation of rural areas. We will explore ways to counteract this dynamic.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.