Academic literature on the topic 'Real estate rental market'

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Journal articles on the topic "Real estate rental market"

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Seay, Martin C., Somer G. Anderson, Andy T. Carswell, and Robert B. Nielsen. "Characteristics of Rental Real Estate Investors During the 2000s." Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning 29, no. 2 (November 2018): 369–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1891/1052-3073.29.2.369.

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Using data from the 2001, 2004, and 2008 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), this research examines the characteristics of households that invested in rental real estate during the 2000s. Given the tumultuous real estate market during that decade, rental real estate investment was investigated during the early part of the housing market boom (2001), the height of the boom (2004), and after the market began to decline (2008). Results reveal relative stability with slight investment increases in rental real estate (4.57% in 2001 to 5.00% in 2004 to 5.08% in 2008), and several investor demographic and financial characteristics consistently associated with the investment decision. Evidence of potential over-reliance on real estate investment by some households indicates that financial planners should work to educate clients who invest, or are seeking to invest, in real estate. Education would emphasize that overweighting portfolios with real estate could be deleterious to client’s wealth goals in times of slow rental or depreciating housing markets.
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Pakhomova, Anna, and Andrey Novikov. "Rental Relations in the Sector of Residential Real Estate: Present-Day Aspect." Bulletin of Baikal State University 29, no. 3 (September 12, 2019): 499–506. http://dx.doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2019.29(3).499-506.

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The rental market of residential real estate has not been fully formed, and, in addition, in this sector there are problems of developing rental relations in the field of residential real estate that prevent the development of their sustainable system. Perfection of the sector of residential real estate rent is necessary for providing economic stability in the country and developing the rental housing market. The article examines the concept and brings forth a classification of residential real estate, characterizes the legal basis of rental relations, the problems of development of such relations in the sector of residential real estate. A particular emphasis is placed on improving the system of rental relations which includes balancing supply and demand in the rental market, establishment of rent in accordance with the household incomes, as well as development of rental services in the sector of residential real estate which are provided by intermediary firms in the real estate market.
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Lu, Chiuling, and Raymond W. So. "Price Discovery in the Taipei Residential Real Estate Market." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 02, no. 04 (December 1999): 459–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091599000254.

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The price discovery process of the Taipei residential real estate market is examined. Using data from the Ta-An District of Taipei City, empirical evidence indicates that there exists a causal relationship between rental rates and property prices. Results here suggest that the two real estate markets are linked together; hence investors and end users can use price information in one market to predict future movements of the other market.
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Hin/David Ho, Kim, and Kwame Addae-Dapaah. "Real estate market cyclical dynamics." International Journal of Managerial Finance 10, no. 2 (April 1, 2014): 241–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijmf-10-2013-0108.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks? Design/methodology/approach – Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers. Findings – The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant. Practical implications – The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing. Originality/value – The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.
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Lee, Stephen. "Convergence in the UK direct real estate market." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 35, no. 4 (July 3, 2017): 382–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2016-0043.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the issue of convergence in the monthly returns, rental growth and yields for ten market segments in the UK direct real estate market, using monthly data over the period from January 1987 to December 2014. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used to determine convergence is principal component analysis as it provides an assessment of the extent to which the variance of the market segments can be represented by a single common factor, explaining their long-run behaviour, and the degree of independence between the market segments. Findings The results suggest that there is strong evidence of convergence over the entire sample period in relation to monthly returns and yields but less evidence of convergence in rental growth, which confirms the findings in previous studies in international markets. Practical implications The evidence also suggests that convergence has increased over the sample period and that convergence is period specific and was particularly strong during and after the period of the Global Financial Crisis, which implies that the UK direct real estate market is largely integrated and as a consequence the extent of diversification potential in the market is still severely limited. Social implications The convergence in returns has crucial implications for investors as it leaves investors exposed to the same structural shocks and so magnifies the importance of volatility spillover effects, limits their ability to create well-diversified portfolios and make it more difficult for fund managers to outperform the market. Originality/value This is the first paper to examine the convergence in the UK direct real estate market.
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Cajias, Marcelo, Philipp Freudenreich, and Anna Freudenreich. "Exploring the determinants of real estate liquidity from an alternative perspective: censored quantile regression in real estate research." Journal of Business Economics 90, no. 7 (June 3, 2020): 1057–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11573-020-00988-w.

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Abstract In this paper, the liquidity (inverse of time on market) of rental dwellings and its determinants for different liquidity quantiles are examined for the seven largest German cities. The determinants are estimated using censored quantile regressions in order to investigate the impact on very liquid to very illiquid dwellings. As market heterogeneity is not only observed between cities but also within a city, each of the seven cities is considered individually. Micro data for almost 500,000 observations from 2013 to 2017 is used to examine the time on market. Substantial differences in the magnitude and direction of the regression coefficients for the different liquidity quantiles are found. Furthermore, both the magnitude and direction of the impact of an explanatory variable on the liquidity, differ between the cities. To the best of the authors’ knowledge this is the first paper, to apply censored quantile regressions to liquidity analysis of the real estate rental market. The model reveals that the proportionality assumption underlying the Cox proportional hazards model cannot be confirmed for all variables across all cities, but for most of them.
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Kobzan, S., A. Ivakhnenko, and M. Tolsta. "RESEARCH OF FEATURES OF RENT MARKET DEVELOPMENT." Municipal economy of cities 1, no. 161 (March 26, 2021): 116–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2021-1-161-116-123.

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The purpose of the article is to conduct a study of the rental market as a separate segment of the real estate market in urban development. A study of the rental market in Kharkiv was conducted. The relevance of the study is to determine the prospects for the development of modern urban economy, taking into account the development of the rental market. The question of the dependence of the rent on the cost of housing and the profitability of certain segments of the housing market is determined. An improved classification of different segments of housing in the modern city is given. An analysis of the cost of rent for each segment and depending on the location. Factors that significantly affect the cost of rent have been studied. Conclusions are made about the future development of the rental market in the municipal economy. In urban planning and urban planning it is extremely important to take into account the prospects and development of such a market segment as the rental market of residential real estate. The relevance of the study is to determine the prospects for the development of modern urban economy, taking into account the development of the rental market. The residential real estate rental market is a very important component for the development of the city in Kharkiv. The issue of researching the apartment rental market is relevant and will be deeply analyzed in the future. To achieve this goal, the following tasks are set in the work: Analyze the rental market. Develop an improved classification of segmentation in the residential real estate market. Conduct research on the factors that affect the cost of rent. Develop a GIS model of the impact of rental costs depending on the area of the city. Build a detailed table of the dependence of the cost of rent on the location. Investigate the interaction in the real estate rental market and sales within urban development. The rental price is influenced by the following factors: - trends of growth or decline of the general state of the real estate market as a whole; - seasonality; - the distance of the district from the city center; - the presence of a transport interchange; - ecology, in the area where the object is located; - developed infrastructure; - level of housing comfort; - the duration of the lease; - number of rooms; - the presence of repairs; - type and condition of the building in which the dwelling is located. The article examines the rental housing market. Defined rental rates: minimum, average and maximum cost. Charts of dependence of cost of rent on a segment and a location are constructed. The housing market is developing despite the unstable economic situation, the devaluation of the hryvnia and declining incomes. The cost of renting an apartment depends on the location, condition of the house, transport infrastructure and the condition of the real estate. The hotel rental market is developing very actively. In Kharkov, in most cases, buy small apartments and hotels for investment (income from further rent). With the help of GOOGLE MAP, a map of the dependence of the average cost of renting hotels and 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom, 3-bedroom apartments on the location in the areas of Kharkiv was developed.
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Sun, Jie, Zhiruo Wang, Xiaoyi Dang, and Yang Zhang. "Eye-Tracking Technology in Online Real Estate Rental." Scientific Programming 2021 (January 16, 2021): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/8851657.

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In China in recent years, the rental housing market has boomed, but insufficient attention has been paid to microsubject tenants in the market, and there is a lack of research results on tenants’ decision-making processes. In keeping with the characteristics of China’s accommodation-renting population, this study takes as its research object graduating students, who form an important group in the housing rental market, and focuses on the information retrieval process underlying prospective tenants’ rental decisions. First, it investigates tenants’ concerns during the renting process by means of questionnaires. Second, using eye-tracking experiments, the real online renting process is simulated and tenants’ web listings are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. In the process of information search, the characteristics and rules of browsing the entry search page, the listings page, and the details page are obtained, and the factors that prospective tenants pay attention to in their search for rental information are obtained. The research results show that initial alphabetical sorting of the term search page can improve the subjects’ efficiency in locating the target keywords, the text information display area of the listings page receives more attention than others, and the real concern factors of the tenants on the page listing details are generally consistent with their selected factors but deviate slightly. Finally, the layout and display of web page information affect how subjects’ attention is distributed, and web page information presents a significant difference in attention between upper and lower pages.
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PIRES, Adriana S. C., Fernando A. F. FERREIRA, Marjan S. JALALI, and Hsiao-Chen CHANG. "BARRIERS TO REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS FOR RESIDENTIAL RENTAL PURPOSES: MAPPING OUT THE PROBLEM." International Journal of Strategic Property Management 22, no. 3 (May 17, 2018): 168–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.1541.

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The recent economic crisis led to significant changes in the real estate market; one of which was a shift toward home rental (rather than buying). Real estate investors have an important role in the growth of the rental market. However, there are often hindrances to investing for residential rental purposes. In order to overcome these barriers, they first need to be identified and understood. With this in mind, the main focus of this investigation was the creation of a conceptual model, through fuzzy cognitive mapping, to identify and understand the cause-and-effect relationships between the factors that represent an obstacle to real estate investments for residential rental purposes. The results show that cognitive maps can be of great use for the structuring of complex decision problems, minimizing the number of factors left out of the decision making process. In particular, the tenant risk behavior, property location and associated costs (for the owner) were identified as the main obstacles to real estate investment rental propose. The practical implications of the model, as well as the advantages and limitations of the process followed, are also discussed.
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Liu, Xiaoxin, Di Wu, Xiuting Li, and Jichang Dong. "Financing of Low-Rent Housing REITs in China." Journal of Systems Science and Information 1, no. 1 (February 25, 2013): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jssi-2013-0001.

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AbstractTaking the special features of the Chinese real estate market and financial market into account, this paper explores the application of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in low-rent housing and introduces an agent-based simulation model for low-rent housing REITs in the issuing and trading markets. Overcoming the difficulty of lacking relevant REITs models and data in China, We find that how the rental income and government subsidy, market fixed interest rate, dividend proportion of low-rent housing REITs and market surplus fund influence the financing of low-rent housing REITs.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Real estate rental market"

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Hughes, James D. (James Desmond). "What drives condo prices : the rental or single family housing market?" Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/84175.

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Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2013.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 44-45).
This paper seeks to answer a question that real estate developers have wrestled with for years: apartment or condo? Given that the two types of residential units typically occupy similar buildings and structures, the goal of this research is to determine if condo prices follow rents. If a correlation is found it could have significant impact on the development of residential housing. To answer these questions historical housing prices from 1996 to 2012 for 44 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. will be studied. Linear regression analysis will be utilized at the metro level to understand how condo prices are influenced by apartment rents, single family home prices, the housing price index (HPI) and the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury. The results of the analysis tell us that condo prices have followed and acted very much like single family home prices during the last 16 years. The easy credit and cheap lending that was available during the housing boom separated the single family and condo markets from the rental market by turning renters into owners. During this time rental prices remained relatively flat whereas condo and single family prices moved together and were correspondingly hit harder as a result of the financial crisis. The main implication of these findings is that it appears the type of tenure associated with a housing product has a measurable effect on the price. The physical similarity between condominium units and apartment units in large metropolitan markets does not necessarily signal a relationship in price and thus, apartment rents typically do not represent the present discounted value of condo prices.
by James D. Hughes.
S.M.in Real Estate Development
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Trouve, Yohann. "Local interactions between rental and real estate housing markets." Thesis, Lyon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LYSE2111.

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Le marché du logement se compose de deux segments principaux, le marché locatif et le marché de la vente. Bien que ces deux marchés fonctionnent différemment, les prix sur les deux marchés sont naturellement soumis à des interactions réciproques : le niveau des loyers affecte les prix de vente, mais les prix sur le marché de vente ont un impact sur les loyers. Dans la première approche, les loyers sont convertibles en prix de vente par une formule de capitalisation. Cependant, il est possible, et empiriquement observé, qu'il existe des déséquilibres entre les deux marchés. Ainsi, la dynamique relative des prix et des loyers peut varier dans le temps, mais aussi dans l'espace d'une zone urbaine : comment les prix sur les deux marchés (vente et location) sont-ils liés ? Comment l'un affecte-t-il l'autre ? La relation entre les deux prix est-elle homogène dans l'espace ? Pourquoi certains quartiers d'une agglomération ont-ils des loyers trop bas par rapport aux prix d'achat ? Cesquestions présentent un intérêt particulier pour les acteurs locaux de la politique du logement, dans un contexte de fortes tensions sur le marché du logement comme c'est le cas dans l'agglomération lyonnaise. En particulier, elles sont étroitement liées aux politiques visant à soutenir l'offre de logements ou le niveau des loyers du marché. Cette thèse propose d’étudier les liens entre ces deux marchés.Le premier chapitre de cette thèse tente d'observer si les ratios loyer/prix varient à l'intérieur d'une zone urbaine et cherche à expliquer les écarts entre les ratios loyer/prix, s'ils existent. Après avoir recalculé les ratios loyer sur prix dans l’agglomération, nous observons une hétérogénéité spatiale de ceux-ci. Dans une seconde partie de cette contribution, nous développons un modèle de « tenure choice » qui nous permet de mettre en avant des mécanismes théoriques qui expliquent les variations spatiales de ratio loyer/prix.Le deuxième chapitre de cette thèse porte sur la relation entre les prix du marché du logement privé et la construction de logements sociaux. Dans cette première contribution empirique, nous testons l'impact de la loi SRU sur le prix des logements en utilisant une méthode à double différence. Les résultats indiquent qu'à mesure que le retard de la municipalité dans l'atteinte des objectifs de la SRU augmente, il entraîne une augmentation de la construction de logements sociaux et, finalement,une diminution du prix des logements privés de la municipalité. Nous utilisons aussi une méthode de régression de discontinuité utilisant le seuil de 3500 habitants. Les résultats de cette deuxième analyse suggèrent que la construction de logements sociaux a eu un impact négatif sur le prix des logements dans les municipalités de plus de 3500 habitants.Aujourd'hui, il existe plusieurs politiques qui encouragent les propriétaires à louer des logements à loyers modérés ou qui tentent de faciliter l'accès à la propriété. Néanmoins, si ces politiques ont déjà été étudiées, ce troisième chapitre tente de comprendre leurs impacts combinés sur le marché du logement privé. En particulier, nous essayons de montrer l'impact des politiques de soutien à l'achat et à la location et des politiques de prêts à taux zéro. La première étape de notre contributionconsiste à concevoir un modèle théorique. Ce modèle théorique met en évidence les effets de chacun des deux mécanismes et met également en évidence la réaction du marché du logement lorsque chacun des deux mécanismes est couplé à une politique de contrôle des loyers. Dans une analyse empirique, nous vérifions si les prédictions du modèle précédemment développé sont valides. Les résultats indiquent que l'impact de la réforme sur le prix des logements neufs est positif.La dernière étape de notre analyse est une méthode à triple différence qui indique que la croissance du prix des logements neufs s'accélère en présence d'un contrôle contraignant des loyers
The housing market consists of two main segments, the rental market and the sales market. Although these two markets operate differently, prices on the two markets are naturally subject to reciprocal interactions: the level of rents affects prices of sale, but prices on the sales market have an impact on rents. On the first approach, the rents are convertible into a selling price by a capitalization formula. However it is empirically observed that imbalances exist between the two markets. Thus, the relative dynamics of both prices and rents can vary over time, and also in the space of an urban area. How are prices in the two markets (sale and rental) related? How does one affect the other? Is the relationship between the two prices homogeneous in space? Why is it that some neighborhoods of an agglomeration have rents that are too low in relation to purchase prices? These questions are of particular interest to local policy actors in housing, in a context of strong tensions on the housingmarket as is the case in the Lyon conurbation. In particular, they are strongly linked to policies aimed at supporting the supply of housing or the level of market rents. This thesis aims to study the link between these two markets.The first chapter of this thesis attempts to observe whether rent to price ratios vary within an urban area and seeks to explain the differences between rent to price ratios, if they exist. After recalculating the rent to price ratios in the agglomeration, we observe a spatial heterogeneity of them. In the second part of this contribution, we develop a "tenure choice" model that allows us to highlight theoretical mechanisms that explain spatial variations in the rent to price ratio.The second chapter of this thesis deals with the relationship between private housing market prices and the construction of social housing. In this first empirical contribution, we test the impact of the SRU law on house prices using a double-difference method. The results indicate that as the municipality’s delay in achieving the SRU's objectives increases, it leads to an increase in the construction of social housing and, ultimately, a decrease in the price of the municipality's private housing. We also use a discontinuity regression method using the 3500 population threshold. The results of this second analysis suggest that the construction of social housing has had a negative impact on private housing prices in municipalities with more than 3500 inhabitants.Today, there are several policies that encourage landlords to rent low-rent housing or that attempt to facilitate access to home ownership. Nevertheless, while these policies have already been studied, this third chapter attempts to understand their combined impacts on the private housing market. In particular, we try to show the impact of purchase and rental support policies and zero-interest loan policies. The first step in our contribution is to design a theoretical model. This theoretical modelhighlights the effects of each of the two mechanisms and also highlights the reaction of the housing market when each of the two mechanisms is coupled with a rent control policy. In an empirical analysis, we check whether the predictions of the previously developed model are valid. The results indicate that the impact of the reform on new housing prices is positive. The last step in our analysis is a triple-difference method that that the growth of new housing prices accelerates in the presence oftight rent controls
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3

Lee, Jung Mi S. M. j. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "A study on small-sized rental housing market for single or two-person households and strategies to enhance the supply in Korea." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/103452.

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Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2016.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 57-58).
Since 2000, the population structure has been rapidly changing in Korea. Especially, with the trends of delayed marriage, low fertility rate, high divorce rate, separated family due to jobs and education, and the growth of the senior population, the number of single or two-person households is expected to increase despite the decline in population. The government has recognized the importance of the small-sized rental housing market, and it introduced various policies to satisfy the increased demand. However, the supply market has not yet been boosted, because many big companies hesitated to execute their business concerning their profitability, and small companies and individuals suffered from lack of expertise while operating and managing their land and properties. In this situation, this study develops some strategies to increase the supply of small-sized rental housing and to improve the quality of living environments by reviewing the diverse cases and business models in Korea and in other countries. To understand the characteristics and needs of single and two-person households, they can be classified into 4 groups. This classification will be a base for developers and construction companies when they supply housing units and when the government provides subsidies and tax benefits. The biggest problem with the supply is the lack of land because of its high price. To solve this problem, a sub-lease business model is suggested, and using existing multi-family and multiplex housing is another way. With the sub-lease business model, the introduction of professional lease management services will help satisfy all the needs of landowners, tenants, developers and construction companies. For development projects, project financing is a common method to raise funds in Korea. As in the United States, various funding sources, such as asset-backed securities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, and a portfolio, are required. For construction, the modular method can be an option to save construction cost and time.
by Jung Mi Lee.
S.M. in Real Estate Development
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4

Eliasson, Karin, Kristin Ahlberg, and Malin Dyvnäs. "Commercial Real Estate : Different aspects of rent setting." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Business Administration, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-1090.

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Background

The Swedish economy is currently in a boom and due to the fact that the commercial rental market is closely correlated with the development in the Swedish economy and its economic indicators, commercial real estate companies are successful. Commercial real estate companies generate their main revenue out of rents from their tenants, therefore the set-ting of rent and the factors affecting the procedure are of great importance. The report will not only examine the commercial rental market but also the composition of the lease con-tracts, factors affecting the rent setting and risks associated with commercial leases.

Purpose

To analyze the commercial rental market comprising of several different lease contracts. The focus will be to analyze the setting of rents and the factors affecting the procedure.

Method

A deductive approach and a qualitative research method is used in order to get reliable and valid data to be able to fulfill our purpose. The data is collected from interviews done with three different real estate companies, situated in Stockholm and Gothenburg. The sample include Håkan Hellström representing Castellum, Lovisa Lindberg representing Landic Property and Roddy Carlsson representing Vasakronan.

Conclusion

As could be expected, the commercial rental market is closely correlated with supply and demand in the Swedish economy. Currently, demand is increasing due to a growing employment rate and a strong GDP growth. Market rents are increasing, since the demand is continuing to accelerate and vacancy rates are falling. The vacancy rates are currently below the natural level since rents are increasing in both Stockholm and Gothenburg. It is shown that the vacancy level is lower in Gothenburg compared to Stockholm.

Location is the most important factor affecting the setting of rents apart from supply and demand. Rent for office space is highest in the cities’ Central Business District. Additional factors are attributes that make the premises more attractive and client care that enables for satisfied tenants and long lasting tenant relationships.


Bakgrund

Den svenska ekonomin är idag i en högkonjunktur och på grund av att den kommersiella hyresmarkanden är starkt korrelerad med utvecklingen i den svenska ekonomin och dess ekonomiska indikatorer, är kommersiella fastighetsbolag framgångsrika. Kommersiella fastighetsbolags intäkter består till största del av hyror från deras hyresgäster. Därför är hyres-sättningen och dess påverkande faktorer av stor vikt. Rapporten kommer inte enbart undersöka den kommersiella hyresmarkanden, utan även komponenter i kommersiella hyreskontrakt, faktorer som påverkar hyressättning och risker associerade med kommersiella hyreskontrakt.

Syfte

Att analysera den kommersiella hyresmarknaden bestående av flera hyreskontrakt, med fokusering på hyressättning och dess påverkande faktorer.

Metod

För att kunna uppfylla vårt syfte och för att få så tillförlitlig och giltig information som möjligt används ett deduktivt synsätt och en kvalitativ forsknings metod. Informationen tillförskaffas genom intervjuer med tre fastighetsbolag, i Stockholm och Göteborg. Urvalet består av Håkan Hellström som representerar Castellum, Lovisa Lindberg som representerar Landic Property and Roddy Carlsson som representerar Vasakronan.

Slutsats

Den kommersiella hyresmarknaden är som väntat, starkt korrelerad med den svenska ekonomins utbud och efterfrågan. Efterfrågan ökar idag på grund av en ökad sysselsättningsgrad och en stark tillväxt av BNP. Marknadshyrorna stiger eftersom efterfrågan ökar och vakansgraden minskar. Vakanserna är i nuläget lägre än normalt eftersom hyresnivåerna ökar i både Stockholm och Göteborg. Det visade sig att vakansgraden är lägre i Göteborg jämfört med Stockholm.

Hyressättningens viktigaste faktor som påverkar hyresnivån förutom utbud och efterfrågan, är läge. Hyran för kontorslokaler är som högst i städernas Central Business District. Hyressättningen påverkas av ytterligare faktorer som gör kontorslokalen mer attraktiv och kundvård som möjliggör långa kund relationer med nöjda kunder.

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Sundell, Charlotte, and Micael Magnusson. "Regional Perspectives on New Construction of Swedish Rental Apartments : A study of rent regulated real estate market interaction." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12270.

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Matička, Tomáš. "Nájemné bytu a faktory, které je ovlivňují ve vybrané lokalitě v Brně v roce 2016 a 2017." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-317082.

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This diploma thesis describes the actual market of rental housing in a selected locations of city Brno. The result of the research determines a usual rent amount. The research of the market was made in four categories according to disposition. In thesis are described elementary factors affecting real estate rental market. In the conclusion all of the details are compared and described both text and graphic.
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Pethrosson, Alfred, and Nadin Muhieddine. "Rent-setting system and January agreement; An analysis of the rental housing market." Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254281.

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I uppsatsen redogörs för hur olika hyressättningssystem har varierat i Sverige under det senaste seklet. De hyressättningssystem som behandlas är hyresreglering, bruksvärdessystemet samt marknadshyra. En historisk bakgrund inför respektive systems tillblivelse skildras genom sammanställning och bearbetning av rättskällor. På hyresbostadsmarknaden tillämpas idag i huvudsak bruksvärdessystemet som för med sig ett starkt besittningsskydd för dagens hyresgäster. Vidare tolkas och redogörs för ett reformförslag om ett närmande till fri hyressättning. Under januari år 2019 förhandlade de politiska partierna Centerpartiet, Liberalerna, Miljöpartiet och Socialdemokraterna, i en överenskommelse, fram en lista med 73 punkter (Januariavtalet). I denna lista beskrivs under punkt 44, att den aktuella hyresmodellen ska komma att reformeras genom bland annat införande av fri hyressättning vid nybyggnation. Detta reformförslag kommer troligtvis att implementeras på hyresbostadsmarknaden år 2021, en bostadsmarknad som genomgår ständiga förändringar. I Stockholm sker idag omvandling av hyresrätter till bostadsrätter, likaväl har priserna stigit i förorterna som i stadens centrala delar. Utvecklingen har lett till en stor andel höginkomsttagare i de mest attraktiva och centrala områdena och segregationen är tydligare än någonsin. Idag är efterfrågan och behovet av hyresbostäder högre än beståndet och många är drabbade, inte minst unga och utrikesfödda som är begränsade och saknar ekonomisk kraft för att kunna få tag på en hyresrätt. Ytterligare en begränsning är den genomsnittliga kötiden för att få en hyresrätt i innerstan. Under år 2018 låg den genomsnittliga kötiden på 17 år, enligt bostadsförmedlingen i Stockholm. I uppsatsen dras bland annat slutsatsen om att ett verkställande av reformförslaget enligt den aktuella formuleringen med fri hyressättning vid nyproduktion, kommer att leda till två parallellt verkande marknader; en reglerad marknad samt en oreglerad marknad. På sikt kommer dock båda att innebära en viss reglering, men som ändå kommer att ligga på två jämförbara prisklasser. Ena för nyproducerade och attraktiva bostäder riktad till den del av befolkningen med högre inkomst och en annan för ett redan befintligt bestånd med en relativ hög efterfrågan. Likaväl kommer det troligtvis att leda till att respektive system får olika besittningsskydd på marknaden.
A description of how different renting systems have varied in Sweden during the last century, will be presented in the project. The renting systems that are described are rental control, the utility value system and market rent. A historical background for respective system's appearance is presented. Today, the utility value system is used in the Swedish rental housing market. The system provides a strong protected tenancy for today's tenants. Furthermore, a reform proposal on free rental market is presented. In January 2019, a negotiation between the political parties Centerpartiet, Liberalerna, Miljöpartiet and Socialdemokraterna, led to an agreement, a list of 73 points (the January agreement). In this list, under point 44, the current rental system is described to be reformed by imposing free rent on newly built rental apartments. This reform proposal will probably be implemented in the rental housing market in 2021, a housing market that is going through constant changes. Today many rental apartments in Stockholm are converted into cooperative apartments, yet prices have risen in both suburbs and the city's central parts. The development has led to a large proportion of highincome people in the most attractive and central areas of the city and the segregation is clearer than ever. The need and the demand of rental apartment is higher today than the supply can cover and many are affected, not least the younger generation and the foreign-born who are limited and have lack of financial power to be able to obtain a rental apartment. According to the housing agency in Stockholm, the average queue time was 17 years in 2018 for obtaining a rental apartment in the inner city. The conclusion that can be drawn is, among others, that the implementation of the reform proposal according to the current formulation in the January agreement about imposing free rent for newly built rental apartments, will lead to two parallel operating markets; one regulated market and one unregulated market. In the long term, however, both markets will entail some regulation, but they will still be on two comparable price ranges. One for newly produced and attractive apartments aimed for that part of the population with higher income and the second one for an already existing supply with a relatively high demand. The two parallel markets will furthermore probably lead to different strength of protected tenancy.
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Rudecká, Soňa. "Analýza developerského projektu." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-227324.

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This diploma thesis deals with the real estate trading theme, this means the construction market and the real estate market. The introduction is devoted to basic terms, followed by familiarization with the investment project and the division of market to the construction one and the one with the real estate. There are also defined subjects (participants) of these markets and institutions that can affect these markets. The main part of the thesis is the description of a development project from pre-investment phase to final sale or lease of real estate. It describes the course of construction project in the perspective of the developer. The final part is focused to an economic evaluation of the project, determining the profitability of rental and sale of individual parts of the building
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Portová, Nikola. "Nájemné bytu a faktory, které je ovlivňují ve vybraných lokalitách v Brně." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-233184.

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This diploma thesis describes the actual market of rental housing in a selected location of Brno. In the begining of the work describes the general view on the rental housing, then it compares the amount of usual rent in particular categories and catastral areas. Next it evaluates which factors have an impact on the amount of rent. The research of the market was made in four categories according to the floor space and disposition. In the conclusion all of the details are compared and described both text and graphic.
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Kellnerová, Sabina. "Nájemné bytu a faktory, které je ovlivňují ve vybraných lokalitách města Brna." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2019. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-399592.

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The diploma thesis describes the current situation on the rental housing market in selected city parts of the Statutory City of Brno and describes and evaluates the basic factors that influence the rental price. Part of the thesis is a market research in four different locations in Brno, namely Žabovřesky, Bystrc, Líšeň and Bohunice. Market research is conducted for different layouts of apartments, namely 1+1 and 1+kk, 2+1 and 2+kk, 3+1 and 3+kk. All collected data are compared and described in text and graphics. In order to compare the rental market with foreign countries, the thesis also includes a market survey in Bratislava, specifically in the district of Petržalka.
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Books on the topic "Real estate rental market"

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Gary, Brozek, ed. Buy it, rent it, profit!: Make money as a landlord in any real estate market. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009.

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Michael, Corbett. New rules for the new market: 4 steps to real estate wealth. New York: Penguin Group, 2009.

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Suzanne, Gilad, ed. The real estate millionaire: How to invest in rental markets and make a fortune. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2006.

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Han'guk chut'aek sijang ŭi saeroun ihae: New understanding of the Korean housing market. Sŏul T'ŭkpyŏlsi: Tasan Ch'ulp'ansa, 2015.

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Hendershott, Patric H. Rental adjustment and valuation of real estate in overbuilt markets: Fundamental versus reported office market values in Sydney Australia. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.

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Wilkins, Charles S. Shelter from the storm: Successful market conversions of regulated housing. Arlington, VA: Compass Group, 1998.

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Rental real estate. Saragota, CA: Allyear Tax Guides, 1998.

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Rental real estate. Saratoga, CA: Allyear Tax Guides, 1993.

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Crouch, Holmes F. Rental real estate. 2nd ed. Saratoga, CA: Allyear Tax Guides, 1996.

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Andersen, Marc W. Retire Rich from Real Estate. Naperville: Sourcebooks, Inc., 2007.

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Book chapters on the topic "Real estate rental market"

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Usinger, Wolfgang. "Rental Law." In Understanding German Real Estate Markets, 113–26. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23611-2_9.

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Higano, Yoshiro. "Introduction: Real Estate Tax System and Real Estate Market in Japan." In New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, 115–22. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_8.

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AbstractThis introduction summarizes chapters of Part II. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_9, Yamamoto (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:88–96, 2018) has compared between the street method, the asset valuation adopted for the imposition of property tax in Japan, and the computer-assisted mass appraisal (CAMA) method generally adopted in North America focusing on education and training of valuators. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_10, Yamazaki (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:97–101, 2018) argues that one of the major causes for relatively low density use of land in the city in Japan is the land tax system. He focuses on property tax and examines defects of the tax from view of economist. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_11, Kobayashi (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:129–138, 2018), taking an actual example, has examined difference between precise legal interpretation of ‘exemption from real estate acquisition tax due to purpose of use’ and taxation practices conducted by local administrative bodies. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_12, Shirakawa and Okoshi (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:88–96, 2017) have shown that the real estate companies were committed to transactions as dual agencies to whatsoever degree, and analyzed attributes of real estate brokerage companies which are able to be dual agencies and how such dual agency affects contract price.In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_13, Ueno (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:97–105, 2017) has analyzed impacts of the macroeconomic conditions on the land price gradient curves which are estimated using real estate data of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area in 1970, 1976, 1985, 1988, 1994, 2008, 2010, and 2016. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_14, Komatsu (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:110–118, 2017) has analyzed impacts that refurbishment of existing apartment has on possible increase in rent using the multinomial probit model and the Tobit model. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_15, Hanazato (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:119–128, 2017) has shown that around 90% of condominium reconstruction cases are predictable using the estimated discriminant function in terms of objective real estate data only. In Chap. 10.1007/978-981-15-8848-8_16, Ota et al. (Jpn J Real Estate Sci 31:109–119, 2018) have analyzed determinants of rent for rental house, office, and shop within 10-min walking distance from Shibuya Station in Tokyo. Multiple regression analyses are conducted and have shown that space syntax (SS) measures (Hillier and Hanson, The Social Logic of Space. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1984) significantly affect rent as well as conventional location attributes.
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Del Giudice, Vincenzo, and Pierfrancesco De Paola. "Spatial Analysis of Residential Real Estate Rental Market with Geoadditive Models." In Advances in Automated Valuation Modeling, 155–62. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49746-4_8.

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Turala, Maciej, and Dorota Sikora-Fernandez. "Urban Renewal in Warsaw’s Commercial Real Estate Market." In European Metropolitan Commercial Real Estate Markets, 225–50. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37852-2_9.

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Heller, Russell. "Financing Rooftop Solar for Single-Family Rental Properties." In Sustainable Real Estate, 313–27. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94565-1_12.

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Armstrong-Taylor, Paul. "Real Estate Market." In Debt and Distortion, 145–57. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-53401-9_12.

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Staiger, Roger. "Single-family rental (single page)." In Foundations of Real Estate Financial Modelling, 163–222. Second Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2018. | Revised edition of the author’s Foundations of real estate financial modelling, 2015.: Routledge, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315171524-6.

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Manganelli, Benedetto. "The Market Research." In Real Estate Investing, 33–51. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06397-3_2.

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Aalberts, Robert J., and Terrence M. Clauretie. "Sexual Harassment of Tenants in Rental Housing." In Research Issues in Real Estate, 275–90. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2995-5_14.

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Manganelli, Benedetto. "The Real Estate Market." In Real Estate Investing, 1–31. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06397-3_1.

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Conference papers on the topic "Real estate rental market"

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Brounen, Dirk, Dorothee Hillrichs, and Erdal Aydin. "Energy Capitalization in the Dutch Rental Market." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_107.

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Gavu, E. K. "Residential Rental Market in Ghana – Empirical Examination of Submarket Existence." In 18th African Real Estate Society Conference. African Real Estate Society, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/afres2018_125.

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Gavu, Emmanuel. "Residential Rental Housing Market in Ghana – understanding key market variables for hedonic modelling." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2018_334.

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Rajkiewicz, Andrzej. "The residential dwelling`s rental market in Poland. Slow development." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_325.

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"Market Performance under Monopoly on Some Submarkets of Rental Housing." In Real Estate Society Conference: ERES Conference 1995. ERES, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres1995_191.

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"Heating costs and rent - How efficient if the Austria rental housing market?" In 19th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference: ERES Conference 2012. ERES, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2012_090.

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Zhang, Yanjiang, Yongheng Deng, and Yong Tu. "The behaviors of flippers, rental investors and owner-occupiers in Singapore private housing market." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_205.

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Valentin, Maxence. "The effects of regulating the housing short-term rental market: Evidence from New Orleans." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2019_94.

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Vaché, Martin. "Overcoming the split incentive barrier in the rental housing market: Germany’s approach of green premiums in rent regulation." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_329.

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"Testing the Connections of Rental-, Transaction-, Construction Market and Real Estate Stock." In 4th European Real Estate Society Conference: ERES Conference 1997. ERES, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres1997_191.

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Reports on the topic "Real estate rental market"

1

Hendershott, Patric. Rental Adjustment & Valuation of Real Estate in Overbuilt Markets: Fundamental vs. Reported Office Market Values in Sydney Australia. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, June 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4775.

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Liu, Chang, and Wei Xiong. China's Real Estate Market. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w25297.

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Qvist Eliasen, Søren, Louise Ormstrup Vestergård, Hjördís Rut Sigurjónsdóttir, Eeva Turunen, and Oskar Penje. Breaking the downward spiral: Improving rural housing markets in the Nordic Region. Nordregio, September 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/pb2020:4.2001-3876.

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Housing issues usually play a major role in urban studies, but are often overlooked as a factor in rural development. This policy brief explores aspects of the dynamics of the ‘frozen’ rural housing market in the Nordic Region, with a specific focus on the role of financing, the part played by municipalities and the potential benefits of a larger rental market.Housing is generally seen as a human right, a consumable that serves as the framework for our lives. However, at the same time, real estate is a financial commodity on the market. In many rural areas, the market value of houses is low – often considerably below the cost of construction. In consequence, it is very difficult to obtain loans to build or buy. This ‘freezes’ the market and has a strong impact on rural development overall, in effect acting as a boost to the trend towards urbanisation and the depopulation of rural areas. We will explore ways to counteract this dynamic.
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Genesove, David, and Christopher Mayer. Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4861.

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Kopczuk, Wojciech, and David Munroe. Mansion Tax: The Effect of Transfer Taxes on the Residential Real Estate Market. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20084.

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Agarwal, Sumit, Itzhak Ben-David, and Vincent Yao. Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19606.

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Levitt, Steven, and Chad Syverson. Market Distortions when Agents are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11053.

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Dettling, Lisa, and Melissa Schettini Kearney. House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17485.

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Abadie, Alberto, and Sofia Dermisi. Is Terrorism Eroding Agglomeration Economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the Office Real Estate Market in Downtown Chicago. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12678.

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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