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1
Afangideh, Udoma Johnson, Tuwe Soro Garbobiya, Farida Bello Umar, Nuruddeen Usman, Victor Unekwu Ocheni, and Sanusi Muhammad Yakubu. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate on money demand in Nigeria: evidence from the new broad money aggregate (M3)." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 12, no. 3 (July 16, 2021): 470–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-02-2021-0080.
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PurposeThis paper is focused on determining the asymmetric effects of exchange rate on money demand function in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachIt employs the empirical model of Baumol–Tobin. Baumol (1952), which was founded on the opportunity and transaction cost of holding money. Monetary aggregates, M1, M2 and M3, are used for the real money balances based on the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing procedure.FindingsThe results indicate that the positive and negative partial sum of exchange rate changes differ in magnitude and size, supporting the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Nigeria.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to consider the new broad money aggregate (M3).
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Tasseven, Ozlem. "Modeling seasonality: An extension of the HEGY approach in the presence of two structural breaks." Panoeconomicus 55, no. 4 (2008): 465–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan0804465t.
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In this paper the HEGY testing procedure (Hylleberg et al. 1990) of analyzing seasonal unit roots is tried to be re-examined by allowing for seasonal mean shifts with exogenous break points. Using some Monte Carlo experiments the distribution of the HEGY and the extended HEGY tests for seasonal unit roots subject to mean shifts and the small sample behavior of the test statistics have been investigated. Based on an empirical analysis upon the conventional money demand relationships in the Turkish economy, our results indicate that seasonal unit roots appear for the GDP deflator, real M2 and the expected inflation variables while seasonal unit roots at annual frequency seem to be disappear for the real M1 balances when the possible structural changes in one or more seasons at 1994 and 2001 crisis years have been taken into account. .
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Freeman, Scott, and Finn E. Kydland. "Monetary Aggregates and Output." American Economic Review 90, no. 5 (December 1, 2000): 1125–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.5.1125.
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We ask whether the following observations may result from endogenously determined fluctuations in the money multiplier rather than a causal influence of money on output: (i) M1 is positively correlated with real output; (ii) the money multiplier and deposit-to-currency ratio are positively correlated with output; (iii) the price level is negatively correlated with output; (iv) the correlation of M1 with contemporaneous prices is substantially weaker than the correlation of M1 with real output; (v) correlations among real variables are essentially unchanged under different monetary-policy regimes; and (vi) real money balances are smoother than money-demand equations would predict. (JEL E300, E510)
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Anggraini, Dewi, and Dewi Rahayu. "Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia (Periode 2011Q1 – 2019Q4)." JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 5, no. 1 (May 31, 2022): 246. http://dx.doi.org/10.20527/jiep.v5i1.5526.
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It is prominent to note that supply for money has become the most saturated literature amongst researchers. Therefore, our study is designed to investigate the money supply in Indonesia.We use five variables in our models: real GDP as a proxy of output, 3-month interbank interest rate, exchange rate, and two measures of money supply: narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2). We compile our data from Indonesia's economic and financial statistics, published by Bank Indonesia, and incorporate quarterly data, encompassing the 2011:1 to 2019:4 period of time. The multiple linear regression method is deployed to assess the effect of real GDP, interest rate, and exchange rate on M1 and M2 money supply. The estimation is executed separately following two proxies of the money supply.Our results imply that real GDP and exchange rate positively affect both M1 and M2 Money supply, while interest rate generates a negative effect. These results consider that Keynes's liquidity preferences theory is suitable to examine the money supply behavior of Indonesia, in addition to the exchange rate
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Adil, Masudul Hasan, Neeraj Hatekar, Sana Fatima, Ibrahim Nurudeen, and Shan Mohammad. "Money Demand Function: A Not-So-Fond Farewell in the Light of Financial Development." Journal of Economic Integration 37, no. 1 (March 15, 2022): 93–120. http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.93.
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This study investigates the stability issues of real money balances considering financial development. We estimate real narrow (M1) and broad (M3) money demand in India during the post-financial reform, from 1996:Q2 to 2016:Q3. To check the short- and long-run relationships, this study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model of cointegration and other various time series techniques. After incorporating financial development into money demand, we determined short- and long-run relationships and a well-defined open-economy stable money demand specification (M1 and M3) in India. Having established money demand function, the policymaker and central bankers can use monetary aggregates as an indicator or information variable to predict output gaps and inflationary expectations under the inflation-targeting framework.
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Sun’an, Muammil, and Amran Husen. "THE TESTING OF MONEY NEUTRALITY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDONESIA." Management and Economics Journal (MEC-J) 1, no. 1 (December 24, 2017): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.18860/mec-j.v1i1.4575.
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<p>This study aim is to test the money neutrality in a narrow sense (M1) and a broad sense (M2) to the growth of output (GDP) in Indonesia, both in short term and long term. This research uses quarterly time series data at 2010 - 2016 periods. The analysis tool used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that short-term money supply (M1 and M2) affect on output growth. However, in the long term, only money circulation in a broad sense (M2) affects on output growth, which also means that money is not neutral because it affects the real sector (GDP).</p><p> <strong>Keywords:</strong> M1, M2, Population, Capital, and Economic Growth.</p>
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Ghumro, Niaz, and Karim Abd. "The role of remittances in the stability of money demand in Pakistan: A cointegration analysis." Ekonomski anali 62, no. 213 (2017): 45–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka1713045g.
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The paper examines the dynamic relationship between the series of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 for the period 1972-2014. M1 and M2 are the dependent variables, while the explanatory variables are real income, discount rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate, and remittances. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to investigate the existence of long-run and short-run effects of remittances on monetary aggregates. The results show that remittances exert only positive effects on real narrow money demand in the end, suggesting that in Pakistan remittances are used for the purpose of consumption. Both money demand functions are stable in Pakistan, but the longrun effect of M1 remittances is a faster speed of adjustment to equilibrium (26.2%) than M2 remittances (21.3%). It is recommended that M1 be used as a monetary tool in Pakistan.
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Qayyum, Abdul. "Sectoral Analysis of the Demand for Real Money Balances in Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 40, no. 4II (December 1, 2001): 953–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v40i4iipp.953-966.
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The main objective of monetary policy in Pakistan, as in other countries, is to achieve price stability. In order to achieve the objective of stable prices, the State Bank of Pakistan is using M2 definition of money supply as an intermediate target variable to conduct the monetary policy. This choice of target variable is based on the long understanding that only the demand for M2 monetary aggregate is stable in Pakistan. The definition of money aggregates two main sectors of the economy that is business sector and household sector. Theories such as quantity theory, Keynesian and transactions, state that both sectors have diversified behaviour. Money demand behaviour of these sectors largely depends on the different sets of variables. Therefore the aggregation of these sectors is rather poor.
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Arintoko, Arintoko. "LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 1 (December 7, 2011): 75–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.79.
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This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration
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Arintoko, Arintoko. "PENGUJIAN NETRALITAS UANG DAN INFLASI JANGKA PANJANG DI INDONESIA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 1 (December 7, 2011): 79–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.457.
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This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy. JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration
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Choudhury, Masudul Alam. "MONEY AND REAL ECONOMY RELATIONSHIP: THE CASE OF SAUDI ARABIA." Indonesian Management and Accounting Research 12, no. 2 (July 7, 2013): 37–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/imar.v12i2.1167.
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The money-economy relationships for Saudi Arabia are theoretically conceptualized and empirically estimated to derive the nature of such relationships in the perspectives of economic stabilization and sustainable development of Saudi economy. The M1 supply of money is found to be the predominant component of money supply in Saudi Arabia contributing to real sectoral linkage between money and development. Yet changes in other components of money supply, M2 and M3, are found to indicate a growing trend towards a regime of long-run savings as opposed to spending in the Saudi Economy. Policy recommendations are derived. The statistically significant relationship of M1 supply of money in Saudi Arabia indicates the prominent role of money in circulation in the real economy. This is a strong feature of endogenous money. Endogenous money is referred to here as the resource mobilization of money into real economic activities. Money therefore established a systemic general equilibrium relationship with other real sector variables.
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Ahmed, Monir Uddin, Md Moniruzzaman Muzib, and Subrata Saha. "The Money Supply Process in Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis." Global Disclosure of Economics and Business 4, no. 2 (December 31, 2015): 137–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.18034/gdeb.v4i2.142.
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Bangladesh Bank (BB) conducts monetary policy through targeting broad (M2) and narrow (M1) money as operating instruments that will be influenced by Real and Nominal interest rate, Remittance, Bank Rate, Deposit interest rate. The success of monetary policy in achieving its objectives depends on the degree of controllability of M1 and M2 by Bangladesh Bank. This paper empirically examines the money supply process on the basis by the mainstream of Post-liberalization period covering the sample period of 1972/73-2009/10. It also Examine how M1 and M2 will be affected by the Speed of adjustment that is equal to the difference between deposit interest rate and nominal interest rate. The money supply function for Bangladesh has been empirically tested by using annual time series data. We have found that remittance is the most significant factor that highly influenced on narrow and broad money supply in Bangladesh.
JEL Code: E31, E43, E51, E52
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Achary, Ram Chandra. "Relationship between Money Supply, Income and Price Level in Nepal." NRB Economic Review 31, no. 1 (April 1, 2019): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v31i1.35305.
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Using the data from 1974/75 to 2017/18, this paper intended to find out the relationship between money supply, income and price level in Nepal. The paper has established the relationship between real money supply (both M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, nominal money supply (both M1 and M2) with respect to price level and nominal GDP with respect to price level separately. The econometric tools such as ADF for unit root tests, SIC for lag length selection, bivariate Johansen Cointegration tests followed by VECM has been used for long-run causality. Further, VEC as well as VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald tests for short-run causality are used. The paper found bidirectional longrun causality between the real income with respect to both type of money supply in real terms. But there is no evidence of short run causation between these variables. Likewise, the study found the unidirectional long-run relationship runs from narrow money supply to consumer price. However, there is no short-run relationship from either side. Accordingly, there is no evidence of long-run as well as short-run relationship between broad money supply and consumer price level. Lastly, there is no evidence of long-run causality between nominal GDP and general price level. But the study found unidirectional short-run causality running from general price to nominal GDP. The results suggest that Nepal should focus on growth of time deposit component of broad money supply in long-run for economic growth and control of inflation.
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Aristiyowati, Endah Siska, and Telisa Aulia Falianty. "PERANAN PERKEMBANGAN INOVASI FINANSIAL SISTEM PEMBAYARAN DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA." EKUITAS (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan) 2, no. 3 (August 6, 2019): 404–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.24034/j25485024.y2018.v2.i3.128.
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This paper examines the dynamic interaction between financial innovation development in the payment system to money demand function especially for currency and narrow money, from 2007-2017 using Indonesia monthly data. This research based on Baumol (1952) and Tobin (1956) and Lippi and Secchi (2009) theory which stated that improvement of technology in the payment system will lead to a decrease in transaction demand for money. From estimation result using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method, study reveals that tremendous development in the payment system on the last eleven years i.e Real Time Gross Settlement, Clearing, Automatic Teller Machine (ATM)atauDebit Card, Credit Card and electronic money using several proxies, such as using transaction value (with and without clearing), total transaction value, transaction volume, ratio of financial innovation in the payment system to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), broad money (M2) to narrow money (M1) ratio, ratio of financial innovation in the payment system to narrow money (M1) will decrease currency and narrow money (M1). Analysis of the financial innovation in the payment system role in affecting money demand (currency and narrow money) is very important so that money demand function is not misspesificied and in determining monetary policy has considered the development of payment system technology.
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Škare, Marinko, Manuel Benazić, and Daniel Tomić. "On the neutrality of money in CEE (EU member) states: A panel cointegration analysis." Acta Oeconomica 66, no. 3 (September 2016): 393–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/032.2016.66.3.2.
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The concept of money neutrality is an important pillar of the mainstream economic literature. It implies that autonomous changes in the money supply have no influence on real macroeconomic variables in the long run. The goal of this paper is to test the validity of (long-run) money neutrality proposition in the CEE (EU member) states. The empirical research is based on panel cointegration analysis which utilises annual data on real output and broad (M2) as well as narrow (M1) monetary aggregates over the 1995–2013 period for 11 ex-socialist EU countries. The results suggest that the money neutrality proposition could be rejected in both cases when narrow or broad measure of money supply is applied, meaning that an active monetary policy could and should be used as a stabilisation instrument as well as in stimulating real economic activity.
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Nchor, Dennis, and Václav Adamec. "Investigating the Stability of Money Demand in Ghana." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 64, no. 6 (2016): 2075–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664062075.
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The study examined the demand for broad money and its stability in Ghana. Johansen’s cointegration approach reveals that the variables were non stationary and cointegrated, therefore, an error correction model, ECM was used to determine the factors that influence real money aggregate in Ghana from 1990 to 2014. The study estimated the results using two set of variables for real demand for money: M1 and M2+. This was done given the assumption that the demand for money was equal to the supply of money. The results show that, GDP affects the level of demand for money in the long run while the interest rate affects it in the short run. The error correction term in each of the cases shows that, 18 % of deviations in the real demand for money is corrected annually. The CUSUM tests of parameter stability showed that, the money demand function was stable over the period and the Chow test indicated that there were no structural breaks.
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Owoye, Oluwole. "Money and Economic Activity in Developing Countries: Evidence Based on Cointegration and Causality Tests." American Economist 41, no. 1 (March 1997): 70–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/056943459704100108.
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This paper examines whether or not the fluctuations in monetary and credit aggregates contain useful information about subsequent future movements in nominal or real income in 10 developing countries. Using annual data covering the 1960–1990 period, empirical results showed that narrow (Ml) and broad (M2) monetary aggregates as well as domestic credit (DCR) contain statistically significant information about future movements in nominal income in some of the developing countries examined, while either M1 or M2 or DCR does in some other countries. However, when nominal income is decomposed into its real income and price components, the results suggest that these aggregates contained no statistically significant information about future movements in real income in nearly all the developing countries in the sample.
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Huda, Nurul, Hulmansyah Hulmansyah, and Zulihar Zulihar. "Pengaruh Faktor Ekonomi dan Moneter terhadap Bank Konvensional dan Syariah Tahun 2002-2016." Perisai : Islamic Banking and Finance Journal 1, no. 2 (April 1, 2017): 123. http://dx.doi.org/10.21070/perisai.v1i2.876.
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This study aimed to examine the effect of national income (real GDP), inflation rate and money supply previous year (M) t-1 to the amount of money circulating in the current year (M) t and the amount of credit / financing in the current year (Cr ) t both from the activities of Syariah banking and conventional banking. The data was used by publication of Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis data was used multiple linear regression with logarithm approach. Research Result find for conventional bank only variable inflation significantly affect in the money supply (M1), while for Syariah bank in GDP and inflation as well as M1 (ISL) / P) t-1. As for conventional M2 for inflation and GDP was significant. For Syariah banking only GDP was not significant. The Factors were affecting credit conventional bank only inflation only. While Syariah bank all variables were significant.
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Lingnan, Lin. "An analysis of the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on China’s stock market." Journal of Governance and Regulation 8, no. 2 (2019): 49–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/jgr_v8_i2_p5.
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Research of influence of macroeconomic fluctuations on stock markets suggests different kinds of relationship between them. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between Shanghai Composite Index and China’s macroeconomic indexes applying cointegration method and different metrics of money supply: M1 and M2. The time period of data in this paper spans from Quarter 1, 1995 to Quarter 4, 2018. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) constituted suggests that: 1) there is a long-run equilibrium between these variables; 2) in the long run, despite of different measures of money supply, real GDP is negatively correlated with SCI, implicating a deviation of a stock market from real economy; 3) in the short run, no matter what measure of money supply we use, real GDP seems to have no significant effect on SCI, which again verifies the deviation of the stock market from real economy. The impulse response analysis suggests the totally opposite direction of effect that money supply and interest rate have on SCI in different specifications, and the forecast-error decomposition analysis indicates that SCI cannot fully reflect macroeconomic fluctuations once again.
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Vo Thi Thuy, Anh, Anh Tran Nguyen Tram, and Thuy Ha Xuan. "Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam." Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies 23, no. 04 (October 1, 2016): 97–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2016.23.4.03.
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Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years.
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Gogas, Periklis, Theophilos Papadimitriou, and Emmanouil Sofianos. "Money Neutrality, Monetary Aggregates and Machine Learning." Algorithms 12, no. 7 (July 5, 2019): 137. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/a12070137.
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The issue of whether or not money affects real economic activity (money neutrality) has attracted significant empirical attention over the last five decades. If money is neutral even in the short-run, then monetary policy is ineffective and its role limited. If money matters, it will be able to forecast real economic activity. In this study, we test the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates that are commonly used by central banks all over the world and also the theoretically correct Divisia monetary aggregates proposed by the Barnett Critique (Chrystal and MacDonald, 1994; Belongia and Ireland, 2014), both in three levels of aggregation: M1, M2, and M3. We use them to directionally forecast the Eurocoin index: A monthly index that measures the growth rate of the euro area GDP. The data span from January 2001 to June 2018. The forecasting methodology we employ is support vector machines (SVM) from the area of machine learning. The empirical results show that: (a) The Divisia monetary aggregates outperform the simple sum ones and (b) both monetary aggregates can directionally forecast the Eurocoin index reaching the highest accuracy of 82.05% providing evidence against money neutrality even in the short term.
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Karimova, U. Y., L. A. Rustamova, and H. A. Afandiyeva. "Analysis of The Long-Term Links Between the Money Supply and The Consumer Price Index of The Republic of Azerbaijan." Statistics and Economics 19, no. 4 (July 25, 2022): 4–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-4-13.
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Purpose of the study. Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools of the state under the control of the central bank. It allows you to influence macroeconomic components, such as the amount of money supply, activity in the credit market and the exchange rate of the national currency. Such actions lead to an increase in the money supply and the speed of its turnover, ensuring the availability of loans. Economic growth is being stimulated, but there are also adverse consequences - inflation is accelerating. The central bank uses monetary policy more frequently to bring about the desired level of change in real economic activity. These changes significantly affect the stock market. Economic theory uses the relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index. An analysis of the impact of the money supply on the consumer price index is necessary to select the most reliable type of monetary policy in the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability or to stimulate economic growth. The money supply not only denotes and shows the level of money in various types and forms, but is also an important indicator on which price increases, inflation, credit policy, etc. depend. The dynamics of the money supply determines the dynamics of prices. The accumulation of excess money supply in the country’s economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan.Materials and methods. In the article to analyze the long-term links between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan based on quarterly data for 2005-2018, a long-term equilibrium state model and a short-term error correction model were designed. With the help of cointegration analysis and a vector model, the long-term and short-term aspects of the links between the growth of the money supply and the increase in the price level are investigated. For the regression analysis of these models, the EViews 8 application package was used.Results. Using the various methods showed that the dynamics of M1 and M2 monetary aggregates determine the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long-term and in the short-term periods.Conclusion. The analysis allows us correctly approaching the problem of modelling the inflation level and to obtain a statistically acceptable and stable model with good predictive characteristics. The fact that there is a connection in the opposite direction has been confirmed. The use of various complementary methods showed that the dynamics of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 determines the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long and short term.
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Cho, Hyungsun Chloe, and Miguel D. Ramirez. "Money Demand in Korea: A Cointegration Analysis, 1973-2014." Business and Economic Research 6, no. 1 (January 28, 2016): 96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v6i1.8950.
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<p class="ber">This paper estimates the demand for real money in Korea over the 1973Q3 to 2014Q4 period via unit root and cointegration methods. Utilizing the Johansen cointegration methodology and the Pantula principle, it establishes that a long-term relationship exists among the included variables. The paper also estimates an error correction model (ECM) as well as a vector error correction model (VECM), extending previous analyses by performing forecasts and testing for Granger causality among the variables. It finds that the broader definition of money, M2, serves as a relatively better measure of the money aggregate than M1 when evaluating the stability of the real demand for money. The long-term interest (LR) rate also seems to provide better results than the short-term rate (SR), which is consistent with economic theory given that it refers to a long-run equilibrium relationship. Both the ECM and VECM estimates showed the expected (and significant) signs on the coefficients; LM2 (LM1) and LGDP were positively related and LM2 (LM1) and LR (SR) were negatively related. Granger block causality tests and impulse response functions together seem to suggest that the traditional money demand function which places M as its ‘dependent’ variable, while including income and interest rates as its regressors, was a robust and stable model in the case of Korea.</p>
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Mulaahmetović, Inda. "Quantitative Easing and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States." Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 11, no. 3 (September 1, 2022): 79–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0024.
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Abstract This scientific paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables whose performance is measured under the implementation of Quantitative Easing in the US, by estimating vector autoregression (VAR) and Impulse Response Function with monthly data from US Federal Reserve, observed during the period January 1994-January 2022. Variables include: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); Industrial Production (INDPRO); Unemployment Rate (UNRATE); Interest Rates, Government Securities, Government Bonds (INTGSBUSM193N); Volatility Index (VIXCLS), Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate (RBUSBIS), Federal Surplus or Deficit (MTSDS133FMS), Money Supply M1 (WM1NS), M2 (WMNS), M3 (MABMM301USM189S). An evidence on macroeconomic variables of Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production when evaluating the effectiveness of QE is provided.
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Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, Nicholas Apergis, and Ghassen El Montasser. "Old wine in a new bottle: money demand causality for 10 Asian countries." International Journal of Emerging Markets 10, no. 3 (July 20, 2015): 491–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-09-2013-0138.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate causality properties between real money demand and a number of determinants, i.e., real output, the lending rate and the real exchange rate, across ten Asian economies. Design/methodology/approach – The study makes use of the causality methodology of Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) over the period 1990-2012. Findings – The results document both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between monetary aggregates (M1 and M2) and their determinants for different country groups. Research limitations/implications – The empirical findings exemplify the role of the demand for money as a policy tool and can provide useful policy guidelines to the Asian central banks in their quest for price stability. Originality/value – This paper for the first time estimates causality properties between real money demand and a number of determinants, across ten Asian economies that have not used before in the literature. In addition, it employs the innovative methodology of Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011). The advantages of this approach are: it overcomes the problem of pre-testing needs to determine the order of integration, the lag orders on the autoregressive coefficients as well as the exogenous variable coefficients are mixed for all the cross-section units of the sample, and it is based on the approach of Meta-analysis which is capable of obtaining common results, combining those provided by a number of independent studies which test the same hypothesis.
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Calderón Salazar, Jorge, and Sandra Zambrano. "El impacto de la dolarización en el sistema económico: Caso Ecuador 2000- 2016." ECA Sinergia 10, no. 1 (January 31, 2019): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.33936/eca_sinergia.v10i1.1109.
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La investigación se centró en estudiar el impacto de la dolarización en el sistema económico utilizando como instrumentos de estudio indicadores macroeconómicos de alta relevancia, mediante análisis de datos de serie de tiempo se exploraron los cambios en la inflación, el crecimiento del PIB, la oferta monetaria y la liquidez, por tal se deduce, en primer lugar, que una vez implementada la dolarización la inflación disminuyó, en segundo, el PIB real y nominal presentan estabilidad ya que ha tenido un crecimiento notable, tercero, la oferta monetaria M1 y la liquidez total M2 aumentaron, concluyendo que la dolarización generó un impacto positivo en la economía ecuatoriana sin embargo existen otros factores importantes que limitan el crecimiento económico de los últimos años como es la caída del petróleo, la apreciación del dólar, el desastre natural sucedido en el año 2016, la falta de inversión extranjera, entre otros.
Palabras clave: sistema monetarios, inflación, mercado financiero y maroeconomico.
ABSTRACT
Research focused on the study of the impact of adopting the U.S. dollar as the official currency of Ecuador on the economic system, using highly relevant macroeconomic indicators by analysis of data of time series. It was possible to explore the changes in inflation, GDP growth, money supply and liquidity. It follows that firstly that once dollarization has been implemented inflation has declined; secondly the real GDP and Nominal growth are stable since it has had a notable economic growth; thirdly, the money supply M1 and total liquidity M2 have increased, concluding that dollarization has had a positive impact on the Ecuadorian economy, however, there are other important factors that prevent economic growth in recent years as, among others, the fall of oil prize, the dollar appreciation, natural disaster which occurred in 2016, and the lack of foreign investment.
Key words: monetary system, inflation, financial market and maroeconomico.
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Iqbal, Azhar, and Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach." Pakistan Development Review 42, no. 4II (December 1, 2003): 987–1014. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v42i4iipp.987-1014.
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The question whether real money causes real output appears to be important for many economists working in the area of macroeconomics and, has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques, producing conflicting results. One often applied method to investigate the empirical relationship between money and real activity is Granger causality analysis [Granger (1969)]. Using this approach, the causality question can be sharply posed as whether past values of money help to predict current values of output. This concept, however, should be clearly distinguished from any richer philosophical notion of causality [cf. Holland (1986)]. Present paper examines the relationship between money (both M1 and M2) and income (Real GDP) for 15 developing countries using a newly developed heterogeneous dynamic panel data approach.1 Sims (1972) postulated “the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from money to income agrees with the post war U.S. data, whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected”. Since then a voluminous literature has emerged testing the direction of causality.2 Some studies have tested the relationship between these variables and the direction of causality for a particular country using time series techniques [e.g., Hsiao (1979) for Canada, Stock and Watson (1989) for U.S. data, Friedman and Kuttner (1992, 1993) for U.S. data, Thoma (1994) for U.S. data, Christiana and Ljungquist (1988) for U.S. data, Davis and Tanner (1997) for U.S. data, Jusoh (1986) for Malaysia, Zubaidi, et al. (1996) for Malaysia, Biswas and Saunders (1998) for India, and Bengali, et al. (1999) for Pakistan]. Other studies have tested the above on a number of countries, for example Krol and Ohanian (1990) used the data for Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.K. Hayo (1999) using data from 14 European Union (EU) countries plus Canada, Japan, and the United States. More recently Hafer and Kutan (2002) used a sample of 20 industrialised and developing countries. This paper contributes to this later strand of the literature, which it extends in three directions. First, it employed a newly developed panel cointegration technique [Larsson, et al. (2001)], to examine the long-run relationship between money and income. Second, the study performs panel causality test, recently developed by Hurlin and Venet (2001), to explore the direction of causality between the said variables. Third, the important contribution of the present study is to test whether relationship between money and income is homogeneous or heterogeneous across countries.
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Zapata, Nidia, Espinoza Ramiro, Eduardo Cervera, Judith Cruz, Diana Arcos, and Juan Labardini. "Molecular Screening of 28 Genes in Mexican Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia a Series of 70 Patients from the Instituto Nacional De Cancerologia, Mexico." Blood 132, Supplement 1 (November 29, 2018): 5197. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2018-99-115300.
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Abstract Introduction: Acute Myeloid Leukemia is a clonal heterogeneous disease, where age is an important risk factor to develop theses disease, PCR studies and next generation sequence have proven the diversity of these disease. A lot of genes mutations have been identifying to play a role in the DNA metilation, epigenetics a transcription. We initiate a screening to all acute myeloid leukemias that where the novo or relapse with a 28 gene panel of HEMAVISION a 28q; DNA diagnostic, for the detection al ARN gene fusion and alternatives of the: PML-RAR ALFA (bcr2,V), CBF-MYH11, RUNX1-RUNX1T1, PML-RAR alfa(bcr1,L), KMT2A-MLT3, PML-RAR alfa (bcr3,S), KMT2A-ELL, FUS-ERG, ETV6-MN1, DEK-NUP214, KMT2A-EPS15, KMT2A-AFDN, TCF3-PBX1, ETV6-RUNX1, KMT2A-MLLT1, KMT2A-AFF1, TCF3-HLF, STIL-TAL1, BCR/ABL(p190), SET-NUP214, BCR/ABL(p210), BCR/ABL(p230), ZBTB16-RARalfa, ETV6-ABL1, ETV6-PDGFRB, KMT2A-MLLT10, KMT2A-MLLT11,KMT2A-FOXO4, KMT2A-MLLT6, RUNX1-MECON, NPM1-RAR alfa, NMP1-MLF1, RUNX1-MECON. FLT3 ITD mutation and D385 by PCR electrophoresis by Invivoscribe was also perform. And the regular cytogenetics and FISH mutations for BCR/ABL, PML/RAR alfa, Inv16, MLL, +8, ETO, BCR, ABL, monosomy 7, monosomy8 Objectives The main objective is the know the mutation in the Mexican population and the prognostic in these group of patients Results These study was perform at Instituto Nacional de Cancerologia, Mexico, randomized patient from 2016-2018 where screen. A total of 70 patients, 37 females and 33 males, ages from 18-85years old, 54 patients where newly diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia, 4 where relapses and 12 where secondary leukemias, the most frequent FAB morphologic classification where M4:22 cases, M2:15 cases, M3:8 cases, M1:4cases, M0 and M5:3 cases each. Of the 70 patients: 56 patients where negative to all of the panel screen, FLT3 where only perform in 14 patients 12 where negative and 2 where insufficient to perform the test, the most common FISH translocation was PML/RAR alfa, follow by MLL, ETO and +8. For the cytogenetics we had 21 cases that didn´t have enough metaphases, 7 normal, 28 cases with more than 2 cytogenetics alterations and 9 with only 1. With a Cytogenetics risk: high risk 44, intermedium:10 and low12. Of the 70 patient, 14 have some genes mutations +: t(9;11)(p22;q23) KMT2A-MLLT3, t(6;11)(q27;q23) KMT2A-AFDN, t(5;12)(q33;p13) ETV6-PDGFRB, t(8;21)(q22;q22) RUNX1RUNX1T1, inv16(p13q;22q) CBFB-MYH11, t(6;11)(q27;q23) KMT2A-AFDN, t(3;21)(q26:q22) RUNX1-MECOM, inv16(p13q;22q) CBFB-MYH11, t(15;17)(q24;q21) PML-RARA (bcr2,V) t(15;17)(q24;q21) PML-RARA (bcr1,L) t(15;17)(q24;q21) PML-RARA (bcr3,S), t(8;21)(q22;q22) RUNX1RUNX1T1, t(8;21)(q22;q22) RUNX1RUNX1T1, t(15;17)(q24;q21) PML-RARA (bcr3,S) Out of 70 patients: 38 receive 7+3 (cytarabine + Daunorubicin) for first line of treatment, 41 received high doses of cytarabine at 3g /m2. Our first option for relapse treatment is MEC (mitoxantrone, cytarabine and etoposide) because of costs and the second line of rescued treatment is Flag- Ida (idarubicin, fludarabine and cytarabine) and not all patient can afford it. For the elderly patients the first line of treatment is low dose of cytarabine and only in those who can pay azacytidine it is use. The correlation between high risk cytogenetics with mortality is 12 cases out 70. And genes with morality only 4 patients with: t(9;11)(p22;q23) KMT2A-MLLT3, t(6;11)(q27;q23) KMT2A-AFDN, t(5;12)(q33;p13) ETV6-PDGFRB, t(6;11)(q27;q23) KMT2A-AFDN Conclusion We need to know our population characteristics, we don´t have the incidence and prevalence of the gene mutation in the Mexican population. In the market there are several screening panels with different genes. We need to have more genes and more patient to be analyzed to learn our molecular risk, to have a better approach to these patients and better techniques. There is no paper publish with the genetics and gene alteration in the Mexican Population, it is important to continuing working and to use panels with genes as ASXL1, FLT-TKD, CEBPA, KIT, KRAS, IDH1,2, TET2 and others. And other important issue that we found is the high number of patient that abandon treatment 4 cases, because of money issues. And the time of these population 24 patient where death. The incidence of FLT3 mutation ITD and D385 is low in theses population but it was performed only 14/70 patients, we need a large number of patient to know the real incidence. Table. Table. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.
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Wallace, Frederick H. "Long Run Money Neutrality: The Case of Guatemala." Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, October 1, 2005, 127–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.35319/lajed.20055255.
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The Fisher and Seater (1993) methodology is used to test for the long run neutrality of money in Guatemala, 1950-2001. Real GDP, real per capita GDP, and the money measures, M1 and M2, are integrated of order one [1(1)]. Given these orders of integration, the Fisher-Seater neutrality test can be applied. The evidence suggests that M1 and M2 are neutral with respect to real GDP. Furthermore, the test indicates that M1, but not M2, is neutral with respect to real per capita GDP as well.
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Zehra, Iffat, Muhammad Kashif, and Imran Umer Chhapra. "Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan." International Journal of Emerging Markets ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print (August 28, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-09-2019-0717.
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PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.