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1
Sing, Tien Foo. "Real options in real estate : irreversibility, volatility and option premia in UK commercial property market." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.396039.
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Müller, Jürgen. "Real option valuation in service industries /." Wiesbaden : Dt. Univ.-Verl. [u.a.], 2000. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=008939946&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
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SANTOS, MAURICIO SANT ANNA DOS. "A EVOLUTIONARY REAL OPTION GAME WITH THE OPTION TO DEFER INVESTMENT." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2015. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=26402@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO<br>O objetivo desta dissertação é demonstrar que mesmo em ambientes em que a decisão do individuo não segue a racionalidade, podemos obter uma estratégia ótima. Com o auxilio do equilíbrio evolucionariamente estável (ESS), conseguimos analisar casos diferentes da literatura usual de teoria dos jogos em que mesmo com escolhas sem racionalidade, encontramos a melhor estratégia, para tal usaremos a metodologia do jogo de opções, união entre a teoria dos jogos e a metodologia de opções reais, juntamente com o conceito de equilíbrio evolucionariamente estável (ESS). Isso é demonstrado através da modelagem de um mercado duopolista assimétrico, sujeito a incertezas. Neste trabalho as firmas são diferentes, existe um duopólio assimétrico. Aqui as empresas são não homogêneas porque uma empresa tem custo operacional mais baixo do que a outra para o mesmo investimento. Isto significa que uma empresa tem vantagem competitiva sobre a rival. Os resultados do modelo mostram que, dependendo do tipo de estratégia assumida pela empresa, é possível que a empresa de baixo custo se torne líder como na literatura usual e em alguns casos encontramos que diferente da expectativa usual é possível que a empresa de alto custo venha a se tornar líder e demonstra que a premissa de racionalidade não é necessária para a escolha inicial da empresa utilizando o conceito de ESS para definir o equilíbrio assim como foi feito no trabalho de Xiao e Yu (2006).<br>The objective of this dissertation is show that even in environments where the decision of the individual not follow rationality, we can get a optimal strategy. with the help of evolutionarily stable strategy, we analyze different cases of the usual literature on game theory that even with choices without rationality, we find the best strategy, for that we will use the option game methodology, which is the union between gaming theory methodology and option game methodology, with the concept of evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS). This is demonstrated through modeling of a duopolistic market, with uncertainties, in this dissertation firms are different. Here companies has no-Homogeneous cost because a company has lower operating costs than the other for the same investment. This means that a company has competitive advantage over rival. The model results show that, depending on the strategy assumed by the company it is possible that the low-cost company to become leader as usual in the literature and in some cases also shows that is possible to the high cost company to become leader and demonstrates that the premise of rationality are not necessary for choosing initial strategy, the company can find equilibrium using the concept of ESS to set the balance as was done in the paper of Xiao and YU (2006).
4
PETRONI, DEBORA PIRES DE SOUZA. "REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS: A REAL OPTION AND GAME THEORY APPROACH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2010. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=32834@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO<br>No ramo imobiliário, a tomada de decisão deve ser rápida e precisa. São muitas as incertezas que podem afetar um projeto. Por isso, o Estudo de Viabilidade é fator determinante de sucesso ou fracasso de uma incorporação. Hoje o método de análise largamente utilizado é o do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado
(FDC), onde o valor do projeto e seus parâmetros de resultado baseiam-se no Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do fluxo. Porém, este método não considera as diferentes decisões gerenciais que podem ser tomadas durante a vida útil do empreendimento em função de novas informações adquiridas ao longo do tempo.
A decisão gerencial pode atuar mudando o rumo do empreendimento de maneira a maximizar os resultados a serem obtidos e mensurar seu real valor. Este trabalho se propõe a, de forma simples, introduzir a ferramenta de análise pela Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR), abordada na literatura, mas ainda negligenciada pelo mercado imobiliário. Esta teoria utilizada isoladamente não é capaz de retratar o dia-a-dia do incorporador. No mercado, a TOR torna-se falha utilizada sem a abordagem da Teoria dos Jogos, por não considerar os efeitos nocivos da concorrência nos objetivos da empresa. Sendo assim, o objetivo foi não só auxiliar na melhor avaliação de projetos pela TOR, considerando incertezas das mudanças econômicas mundiais e flexibilidade de tomada de decisão na maximização do resultado, como também analisar pela Teoria dos Jogos, a influência dos concorrentes nos objetivos inerentes ao projeto.<br>In Real Estate, the decision must be fast and accurate. There are many uncertainties that may affect projects. Therefore, the economic feasibility study is a critical factor of success or failure of an estate project. Currently the widely used analytical method is the discounted cash flow, in which the project s outcome and value are based on Net Present Value of the cash flow. However, this method does not consider the various management decisions that may be taken during the project life. The management decision may influence changing the course of estate development to maximize the financial results and measure their real value. This work aims to, in a simple way, introduce the analytical tool for Real Options
Theory (ROT), discussed in the literature, but still neglected by the real estate market. This theory used in isolation isn t able to portray the developers daily. In the real estate market, the ROT becomes incorrect used without the Game Theory concepts, disregarding the competition effect s on the company s goals. Therefore, this work goes beyond a better project assessment through ROT, considering economic uncertainties and flexibility on decision making, but also considering the perspective of game theory, adding the influence of competitors actions on projects goals.
5
She, Yuling S. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Redevelopment option value for industrial property." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127858.
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Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2020<br>Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references.<br>This paper searches for the property value component due to existence of a redevelopment option. We do an empirical study based on over 6,600 industrial property transactions across United States from 2000 to 2018. This can be seen as a discovery journey of improving the methodology in identifying and evaluating the redevelopment option value embedded in the transaction price of such property traded among investors in the private property market. Starting from simple OLS regression, we observed a reverse causality phenomenon between property sales price and a dummy variable of the intention to redevelop the property, in which the redevelopment flag was associated with lower priced properties. The journey then ended up verifying the improvement in the most advanced methodology that academics on the frontier apply in studying the value of the redevelopment option. This advanced methodology by Buechler et al (2020)1 deploys an empirical analysis strategy using a probit model to develop a redevelopment propensity metric, instead of the dummy variable of redevelopment intention. We apply this methodology to solve the endogeneity problem with the original simple OLS regression, and we find that industrial properties have an average redevelopment probability of 0.22, which generates option value of $5.8/sqft (land), or 19% of the average property price per square foot of land ($30.2/sqft(land)). Comparing our study findings for industrial property with that of the Buechler et al study (2020) which is on all property types, the implication is that on average redevelopment option value tends to be a greater percentage of industrial property value than for the other types of commercial properties. The option value is not necessarily greater in absolute terms, but relative to the value of the property. These results apply on average to all industrial properties, not just to those sold specifically to be redeveloped.<br>by Yuling She.<br>S.M. in Real Estate Development<br>S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate
6
Fischer, Andreas. "The real option process in strategic management /." Bamberg : Difo-Druck, 2002. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/356760855.pdf.
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Djokovic, Djordje. "High technology commercialisation : a real option approach." Thesis, City University London, 2011. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1112/.
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The impact of uncertainty in the commercialization lifecycle of new technologies is a complex phenomenon. Technologies are research intensive and exposed to uncertainty regarding their successful development and functionality. Further these technologies have to be absorbed by volatile markets in order to be commercialized. These different forms of uncertainty are of primary importance for decision makers but have not been thoroughly studied in previous technology commercialization research and put under one theoretical framework. The main focus of this thesis is to comprehend the recently growing trend among universities and public research organizations to commercialize their research activities from an empirical and theoretical perspective. More particularly the thesis focuses on the life cycle of two main commercialization streams namely the entry and exit of university spinouts, which are companies that evolve from intellectual property developed within academic institutions as well as the licensing and licensing termination of inventions. The main focus of the thesis therefore analysesmarket and technological uncertainty and explains the conditions under which spinout formation, spinout failure, licensing and licensing failure occur by putting them under the theoretical framework of real option theory.
8
ALVES, MARIANA DE LEMOS. "FLEX FUEL CAR: A REAL OPTION VALUATION." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2007. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=10553@1.
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A tecnologia flex fuel foi desenvolvida pelo centro de
pesquisas da Bosch do
Brasil e lançado comercialmente no país em 2003. O
conceito desse automóvel
originou-se da possibilidade do carro utilizar como
combustível álcool, gasolina
ou qualquer proporção de mistura entre os dois em um mesmo
tanque de
combustível. Essa flexibilidade na escolha do combustível
do carro flex fuel e a
existência de incerteza com relação ao preço do álcool e
da gasolina, agregam
valor ao automóvel, pois o consumidor pode escolher o
combustível mais barato
toda vez que abastece o veículo. Este trabalho busca
valorar essa vantagem do
carro flex fuel em relação ao automóvel movido apenas à
gasolina através da
avaliação por Opções Reais, utilizando o Método de
Simulação com Fluxos de
Caixa Dinâmicos, e comparar as vantagens da Simulação de
Monte Carlo em
relação ao modelo de Árvore de Decisão Quadrinomial. Os
resultados indicam
que a opção inerente ao carro flex fuel é relevante para a
decisão de adquirir um
veiculo flex fuel e pode representar de 5% a 10% do seu
valor.<br>The flex fuel car technology was developed by the Bosch
Research Center
in Brazil, and the firs model was launched in the market
in 2003. The concept of
flex fuel automobile derived from the possibility of using
ethanol, gas or any
proportion of this mixture in a fuel tank. The fuel
flexibility and its price volatility
add value to the vehicle because the consumer has the
option to choose the
cheapest fuel each time he needs it. We perform the
valuation of the flex fuel
automobile using Real Options Approach to Dynamic Cash
Flow Simulation. The
results show that the value of the flex fuel option is
significant and can represent
from 5% to 10% of the price of the automobile. We also
compare this method to
the quadrinomial decision tree model and show that while
both provide similar
results, the simulation method is similar and less
computationally intensive.
9
Bhargav, Shilpa Anandrao. "Impacts of project management on real option values." Thesis, Texas A&M University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/1455.
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The cost of construction projects depends on their size, complexity, and duration. Construction management applies effective management techniques to the planning, design, and construction of a project from conception to completion for the purpose of controlling time, cost and quality. A real options approach in construction projects, improves strategic thinking by helping planners recognize, design and use flexible alternatives to manage dynamic uncertainty. In order to manage uncertainty using this approach, it is necessary to value the real options. Real option models assume independence of option holder and the impacts of underlying uncertainties on performance and value. The current work proposes and initially tests whether project management reduces the value of real options. The example of resource allocation is used to test this hypothesis. Based on the results, it is concluded that project management reduces the value of real options by reducing variance of the exercise signal and the difference between exercise conditions and the mean exercise signal.
10
Blanck, Andreas. "American Option Price Approximation for Real-Time Clearing." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för fysik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-144435.
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American-style options are contracts traded on financial markets. These are derivatives of some underlying security or securities that in contrast to European-style options allow their holders to exercise at any point before the contracts expire. However, this advantage aggravates the mathematical formulation of an option's value considerably, explaining why essentially no exact closed-formed pricing formulas exist. Numerous price approximation methods are although available, but their possible areas of application as well as performance, measured by speed and accuracy, differ. A clearing house offering real-time solutions are especially dependent on fast pricing methods to calculate portfolio risk, where accuracy is assumed to be an important factor to guarantee low-discrepancy estimations. Conversely, overly biased risk estimates may worsen a clearing house's ability to manage great losses, endangering the stability of a financial market it operates. The purpose of this project was to find methods with optimal performance and to investigate if price approximation errors induce biases in option portfolios' risk estimates. Regarding performance, a Quasi-Monte Carlo least squares method was found suitable for at least one type of exotic option. Yet none of the analyzed closed-form approximation methods could be assessed as optimal because of their varying strengths, where although the Binomial Tree model performed most consistently. Moreover, the answer to which method entails the best risk estimates remains inconclusive since only one set of parameters was used due to heavy calculations. A larger study involving a broader range of parameter values must therefore be performed in order to answer this reliably. However, it was revealed that large errors in risk estimates are avoided only if American standard options are priced with any of the analyzed methods and not when a faster European formula is employed. Furthermore, those that were analyzed can yield rather different risk estimates, implying that relatively large errors may arise if an inadequate method is applied.
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Parthasarathy, Priya. "Real Option valuation of electricity Generators in Alberta." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0021/MQ55178.pdf.
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VIDAL, ALEXANDRE PANZA. "MINING PROJECT VALUATION APPLYING THE REAL OPTION THEORY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2008. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12985@1.
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A demanda por commodities mineral e energético no mundo vem
sofrendo
um forte aumento nos últimos anos causado principalmente
pelo crescimento da
economia chinesa. No setor de minério de ferro movimentos
de aquisições e
consolidações são cada vez mais freqüentes pois grandes
grupos siderúrgicos
buscam, por meio de aquisições, garantir o fornecimento de
seu principal insumo
e se proteger contra a forte variação do preço no mercado
e, por outro lado,
empresas de mineração, ao se consolidarem, se protegem
contra essas
ameaças. A avaliação de novos projetos de mineração é
fundamental para
identificar o valor da empresa ao considerarmos que uma
empresa de mineração
é um portfólio de projetos. Dada as características de
alguns projetos de
mineração, o uso da Teoria de Opções Reais permite uma
avaliação mais
eficiente do valor destes projetos em função das
flexibilidades gerenciais e
incertezas de mercado. Esta dissertação procura rever e
aplicar os conceitos de
opções reais utilizando a probabilidade neutra ao risco e
processo estocástico
com drifts de crescimento da variável de incerteza através
de um projeto de
mineração hipotético com a opção de expandir sua capacidade
em um prazo de
5 anos.<br>The world demand for mineral and energetic commodities is
rising strongly in the last years due mainly to the growth
of the Chinese economy. In the iron ore
industry movements of merger and acquisition are more
frequent therefore steel producers groups are looking to,
by means of acquisition, guarantee their iron ore
supply and to protect against the huge volatility of price
in the market. On the other hand mining companies are
protecting their business against these threats
by merger operations. In this context, the valuation of new
mining projects is essential to identify the enterprise
value, considering that a mining company is a
portfolio of projects. Given the characteristics of some
mining projects, the use of the Real Option Theory allows a
more efficiently valuation be done in presence of
flexibilities and market uncertainties. This thesis intent
to apply the concepts of real option, considering the risk
neutral probability and stochastic process with
growth drift of the variable of uncertainty, thru a
hypothetic mining project, which holds a capacity expansion
option that can be exercised in the five year time.
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PANTOJA, CAROLINE DA SILVA. "REAL OPTION THEORY: AN APPROACH TO WIND POWER." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2013. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=22854@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>O Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) vem passando por diversas mudanças. A
reforma iniciada em 1993 implicou na alteração da característica do setor de ser
até então majoritariamente estatal. As alterações no SEB nos anos de 2003 e 2004
implementaram os chamados Ambientes de Contratação Regulado e Livre,
respectivamente ACR e ACL. Recentemente, mais mudanças estruturais
marcaram o SEB com a nova Lei de número 12.783/13, que trata da renovação das
concessões do setor. Neste contexto, destacam-se os empreendimentos eólicos e
seu aumento de participação na matriz elétrica brasileira. A matriz elétrica
brasileira permanece majoritariamente hídrica, contudo o segmento eólico tem se
destacado nos leilões de energia, apresentando com frequencia preços mais
competitivos que projetos de Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCHs) e térmicas
movidas à biomassa. Desta forma, dada a importância crescente da fonte eólica de
energia, o presente trabalho propõe a aplicação de um modelo de avaliação de
uma planta eólica em condições de incerteza, com a utilização da Teoria das
Opções Reais. A flexibilidade abordada no trabalho em tela foi incorporada na
escolha do mecanismo de venda da energia gerada. Neste sentido, considerou-se
que o montante de energia não negociado no ACR (através de Leilões regulados)
poderá ter a opção de ser negociado em contratos bilaterais no ACL ou liquidado
no mercado de curto prazo ao Preço de Liquidação de Diferenças (PLD). Os
resultados indicaram um aumento no valor do projeto com a inclusão desta
flexibilidade.<br>The Brazilian Electric Power Industry (SEB) has been going through many
changes. The reform begun in 1993 resulted in a modification on characteristics of
this sector that was mainly controlled by the government until that time. The
changes in SEB occurred in 2003 and 2004 resulted in the creation of the
Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR) and the Free Contracting
Environment (ACL). Recently, new modifications happened in this sector with the
law number 12.783/13, which regulates the Renovation of Concessions in the
sector. In this context, it can be highlighted the wind power projects and their
increasing participation in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. The Brazilian
electricity generation matrix is still concentrated in hydroelectrical generation.
However, wind power plants have been standing out in the last auctions, with
more competitive prices than Small Hydro Power (PCH) and biomass projects.
Therefore, considering the increasing importance of wind power source, this work
proposes the application of an investment model under uncertainty for evaluating
a wind power plant using the Real Option Theory. The flexibility used in this
work refers to the choice of the mechanism for selling the generated energy. In
this sense, it was assumed that the amount of generated energy which wouldn’t be
contracted in the ACR could have the possibility of being negotiated in contracts
in the ACL or it would be sold in the short-term market through the Differences
Settlement Price (PLD). Results indicate an increase in the project value with the
inclusion of this flexibility.
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GIL, RODRIGO. "CARAJÁS EXPANSION PROJECT VALUATION USING REAL OPTION THEORY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2014. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=24005@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>Segundo a Associação de Comércio Exterior do Brasil, o minério de ferro
representou 12,8 porcento do total exportado pelo Brasil em 2012, se mantendo como
primeiro produto, em valor, na pauta de exportação brasileira. Nesse contexto, o
complexo Carajás, localizado no sudeste do estado do Pará em operação desde
1985, destaca-se por ser a maior reserva do país e por ter o minério com maior
teor de ferro do mundo. Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o projeto de
expansão de Carajás, conhecido como projeto S11D,através da teoria de opções
reais, buscando considerar o valor da flexibilidade gerencial existente no projeto e
potenciais incertezas de mercado de forma a obter uma avaliação mais eficaz de
um ativo tão representativo para o país. Os resultados indicam que a opção de
expansão aumenta do valor do projeto de 77 bilhões de dólares para 99 bilhões de dólares,
indicando o valor da opção em 22 bilhões de dólares.<br>According to the Brazilian External Association of Commerce, iron ore
represented 12,8 percent of total export revenue in 2012, being the first product, at
value, on the Brazilian export market share. In this context, Carajás Complex,
located at south east of Pará State in operation since 1985, express itself from
being the biggest reserve in the country and for having the highest iron ore
content of the world. The target of this work is to evaluate the Carajás expansion
project, known as S11D project, through Real Option Theory, considering the
value of management flexibility existing in this project and potential market
uncertainties in which obtain a valuation more efficient from an asset so
representative to the country. The results indicate that the expansion option raises
the project value from 77 billion dollars to 99 billion dollars, resulting the option value
of 22 billion dollars.
15
SILVA, RODRIGO ROCHA DA. "FPSO CHARTERING CONTRACTS VALUATION USING REAL OPTION APPROACH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2015. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29455@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>Contratos de afretamento de FPSO, tipicamente contêm cláusulas de extensão de prazo após um número fixo de anos, sendo que o exercício dessas opções de extensão é prerrogativa da empresa de Exploração e Produção (E e P) que contrata o ativo. Dado que esta flexibilidade gerencial não é capturada pelos métodos tradicionais de avaliação de projetos como o método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, um desafio surge: como definir o valor do projeto dado que existem opções de extensão contratual? Neste trabalho foi utilizada a TOR (Teoria de Opções Reais) para analisar o valor das opções sob o ponto de vista do afretador da FPSO, considerando que o exercício destas opções resulta no recebimento, por parte do afretador, de fluxos de caixa adicionais ao final do período fixo de anos estabelecido no contrato. Diferentemente do tratamento padrão de valor de opções encontrado na literatura, neste caso agrega-se valor também ao afretador da FPSO apesar deste estar na posição vendida no contrato. Foram utilizados dois processos estocásticos distintos para a modelagem das incertezas e precificação das opções. O primeiro utilizou como base o MGB (Movimento Geométrico Browniano) e o segundo o MRM (Movimento de Reversão à Média). Os resultados encontrados em ambos os modelos sugerem que a precificação das opções de extensão agrega valor ao contrato e consequentemente pode tornar o afretador da FPSO mais competitivo no processo concorrencial, uma vez que é possível o compartilhamento de parte desse valor adicional com a empresa de E e P através da redução do valor da taxa de afretamento da FPSO.<br>FPSO contracts tipically include clauses that allow contractual extensions after a fixed period of time. The exercise of these extensions options are the prerogative of the Exploration and Production (E and P) company that hires the FPSO. This management flexibility is not captured by traditional valuation tools such as the Discounted Cash Flow method, and thus, the challenge is how to define the value of a project given that exist contractual extensions options. In this work we analyse the value of these options from the standpoint of an FPSO chartering firm under the Real Options approach, considering that the exercise of these options result in additional cash flows to the chartering company beyond the original contract term. Differently of traditional results in options valuation found in literature, in this case, value is added also to the chartering firm, even though the firm holds a short position in the options. Two different stochastic processes were used to model project uncertainty and option pricing. The first was based on Geometric Brownian Motion (GMB) and the second in Mean Reverting Processes (MRP). The results in both cases suggest that the valuation of contractual extensions options add value to the project, and thus to the chartering firm, and consequently may improve the competitive position of the FPSO chartering firm in a bid process, as it is possible to share part of this value with E and P company through a reduction in the cost of the charter.
16
Essono, Fabrice Assoumou. "Using real option analysis to value financial strategies." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/50540.
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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study project focuses on the use of real options valuation in a tactical
financing setting.
The objective is to identify real option values in financial restructuring situations.
These options are generated by the use of hybrid financial instruments such as
warrants, preferred stocks and convertibles. In the analysis, it will be
demonstrated that the binomial approach, a method commonly used in real
options analysis, can be applied to draw a monetary value from specific financial
transactions (e.g., leverage buyouts). When used optimally, the binomial
approach provides a forceful insight into the dynamics of the transaction.
The study recognises the possible impact of capital structure decisions in the
analysis, but understates it to avoid complexity. The real options perspective
encourages a conscious search for monetary benefits and thus improves the
decision-making of managers involved in financial restructuring operations.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierde werkstuk fokus op die gebruik van rieëIe opsie teorie om taktiese
finansieringsbesluitneming te evalueer.
Opsies word gegenereer deur die gebruik van hibridiese finansiele instrumente
soos bestuursopsie-orders, voorkeuraandele en omskepbare instrumente. In
hierdie studie word 'n oorsig oor die teorie soos dit in literatuur verskyn gegee,
asook voorbeelde van finansiele herstrukturering om die waarde van die
toepassing daarvan te illustreer.
In hierdie studie word erkenning gegee aan die moontlike impak wat
kapitaalstruktuur-besluitneming op die ontleding mag hê. Die impak hiervan
word egter weens die kompleksiteit daarvan ignoreer. Nieteenstaande hierdie
beperking, word besluitneming rakende finansiele herstrukturering verbeter
deur die perspektief wat deur die rieëIe opsie-benadering verkry word, soos in
hierdie werkstuk uitgewys word.
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Agenbag, André. "Using real option analysis to manage project risk." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/53707.
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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study project aims to use "Real Option Analysis" as a tool to translate financial
hedging strategies into business strategies that can be used to hedge business projects
against their associated risks.
Financial investments are often hedged by means of further investment in financial
option structures. These option structures give the investor the option (and sometimes
the obligation) to change the constituents of his original investment, depending on
changes in the external environment. A well engineered option structure will protect the
investor against downside risk, while maximizing profits from upside risk. The objective
of this study project is then to adapt some of the standard structures to such an extent
that they can be used with similar success in the real business environment. This
adaptation is done by means of Real Option Analysis - a relatively new theory whereby
business uncertainty and managerial flexibility can be evaluated and quantified in a way
similar to financial options.
It will be seen that a careful application of Real Option Analysis allows one to take a
certain business situation, identify the risks inherent to it, find a suitable option structure
to hedge against those risks, and modify this option structure so that it can be
implemented as a pure business strategy. This analysis is supported by a detailed
derivation of a popular Real Option Analysis model, and an in depth discussion of the
differences between Real- and financial options as well as difficulties associated with the
implementation of Real Option-based strategies.
Several examples of specific business situations are analyzed and it is concluded that
Real Option Analysis can provide useful, practical and competitive strategies. Above all,
the thought process leading to said strategies is deemed to provide powerful insight into
the dynamics of the business/project under evaluation.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie projek poog om "Real Option Analysis" te gebruik om finansiele
immuniserings strategiee om te skakel in besigheids strategiee wat gebruik kan word om
besigheids projekte te beskerm teen hul inherente risikos.
Finansiele beleggings word dikwels geimmuniseer deur middel van verdere beleggings
in finansiele opsie strukture. Hierdie strukture gee aan die belegger die opsie (en soms
die verpligting) om die samestelling van sy oorspronklike belegging aan te pas na
gelang van veranderinge in die omgewing. 'n Goed ontwerpte struktuur sal die belegger
toelaat om sy winste te maksimeer terwyl verliese as gevolg van negatiewe risiko beperk
word. Die doel van die studie projek is dan om sommige van hierdie standaard opsie
strukture aan te pas sodat dit nie net in die beleggings wereld nie, maar ook in die
besigheids wereld toegepas kan word. Hierdie aanpassing word gedoen met behulp van
"Real Option Analysis" - 'n relatief nuwe teorie waarvolgens besigheids onsekerhede
and bestuurs aanpasbaarhede geevalueer en gekwantifiseer kan word op 'n soortgelyke
wyse as finansiele opsies.
Dit sal gesien word dat 'n deeglike toepassing van "Real Option Analysis" die gebruiker
toelaat om 'n besigheids situasie te evalueer, die risikos daaran verbonde te identifiseer,
'n toepaslike opsie struktuur te vind wat beskerming sal bied teen hierdie risikos, en dan
hierdie struktuur aan te pas sodat dit as 'n besigheid strategie toegepas kan word.
Hierdie analise word ondersteun deur die afleiding van 'n populere "Real Option
Analysis" model, 'n bespreking van die verskille tussen Rieele- en finansiele opsies,
sowel as komplikasies wat verwag kan word tydens die implimentasie van 'n strategie
gebasseer op Rieele Opsies.
Verskeie voorbeelde van spesifieke besigheids situasies word geanaliseer en dit gee
aanleiding tot die gevolgtrekking dat "Real Option Analysis" wel sinvolle, bruikbare en
kompeterende strategiee kan voorsien. Verder word daar aangedui dat die denk proses wat lei tot hierdie strategiee, 'n kragtige bron van insig in die besigheid/projek dinamika
kan gee.
18
Sattarnusart, Warut. "Real Options in Real Estate Development Investment." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Inst.), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-98100.
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Real estate development investment requires a large capital funding but it has slow payback with many risks and uncertainties in the investment. The current approach by using NPV to evaluate this type of investment is not adequate anymore. This is because NPV does not thoroughly capture the uncertainties in the investment and the method ignores the management flexibility whether to postpone or abandon the project in the future. An alternative approach that addresses these issues is to use real options to evaluate this type of investment. The thesis uses the real option model that was proposed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) to evaluate real estate development investment. The model captures value and cost uncertainty in the investment and considers that managements have the flexibility to defer the investment into the future. The thesis analyzes the model critically by sensitivity analyses and shows that using the model requires the input parameters to be carefully determined, especially the ones that relate to unit rental rate. Furthermore, the paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the optimal ratio between value and cost which suggests that the investment should be deferred or invested now. The result shows that, in general, a real estate project should be invested when the value of the project doubles the cost. Also, the result from the simulation allows investors to adjust the ratio according to their risk behavior. Lastly, the thesis performs another Monte Carlo simulation in order to quantitatively identify the effect of the real option model on the investment decision. The result shows that using only the traditional NPV to evaluate the investment can lead to the wrong investment decision more than 90% of the time. Therefore, using both real options and NPV together can improve investment decisions on the real estate development project.
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Russo, Marcelo Moreira. "Are real options a real option for real-world finance professionals? Case study: the application of real options to evaluate investment projects in the latin american oil and gas field services industry." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10375.
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Previous issue date: 2012-12-13<br>Brazil and other emerging markets will continue to present many investment opportunities in the coming years. Finance professionals who manage the company’s capital budgeting processes will face challenges. Specific characteristics of these projects as commodity-linked prices (e.g., the case of oil and gas and agricultural projects) and the customary uncertainties related to emerging markets are additional challenges. In this scenario, a more sophisticated capital budgeting framework, Real Options, offers a more robust theory to deal with uncertainty, managerial flexibility, and volatile outcomes imbedded in these opportunities. Real Options theory assumes that the managers’ involvement in the project generates value so they might capitalize on good outcomes or reduce losses by abandoning projects with bad results. The primary objective of this research was to apply Real Options valuation analysis for an investment project valuation and discuss the process and the results of such methodology. The case study retroactively analyzed an investment project in Colombia and compared the results under traditional NPV methodology and Real Options. The valuation techniques were performed as if they had been applied at the time the project was approved and then compared with the project's actual performance. The case study evaluated two types of real options: first, the effect of an option to cancel a contract that is assessed from the perspective of the client; and second, the option to abandon and defer from the perspective of the company that will perform the investment.<br>Brasil e outros mercados emergentes continuarão a apresentar muitas oportunidades de investimento nos próximos anos. Profissionais financeiros que gerenciam os processos de orçamento de capital nas empresas terão grandes desafios a enfrentar. Características específicas destes projetos como preços ligados a commodities (por exemplo: petróleo e gás e projetos agrícolas) e as incertezas habituais relacionadas com os mercados emergentes são desafios adicionais. Neste cenário, ferramentas mais sofisticadas de orçamento de capital como Opções Reais, oferece uma teoria mais robusta para lidar com incerteza, flexibilidade gerencial, e os resultados voláteis embutidas nestas oportunidades. A teoria de Opções Reais assume que o envolvimento dos gestores nos projetos gera valor à medida que potencializam os bons resultados ou reduzem as perdas por abandonar projetos com maus resultados. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi aplicar a análise de Opções Reais para um projeto de investimento e discutir o processo e os resultados da metodologia. O estudo de caso analisa retroativamente um projeto de investimento na Colômbia e compara os resultados sob o tradicional VPL e Opções Reais. As técnicas de avaliação foram realizadas como se estivessem sendo aplicadas no momento em que o projeto foi aprovado, e depois comparadas com o desempenho real do projeto. O estudo de caso avaliado possui dois tipos de Opções Reais: primeiro, o efeito de uma opção para cancelar um contrato que é analisado a partir da perspectiva do cliente que pode exercer essa opção, e o segundo, a opção de abandonar e adiar a partir da perspectiva da empresa que irá executar a investimento.
20
FONTANET, FLAVIA AGUIAR. "EVALUATION OF AN OPTION TO WAIT FOR A WIND FARM BY THE METHOD REAL OPTIONS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2012. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=22813@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA<br>O investimento em energias é fundamental para a manutenção do
crescimento econômico. O aumento da demanda impulsiona a busca por novas
fontes que sejam eficientes e renováveis. Nesse contexto, o aumento dos
investimentos em energia eólica vem se expandindo em todo o mundo. Entretanto,
no caso do Brasil, esses investimentos apresentam diversos fatores de risco, tanto
na regulação quanto nas condições técnicas e de mercado. A Teoria de Opções
Reais será utilizada como uma ferramenta para determinar o valor do projeto
eólico. Essa técnica incorpora, ao valor do projeto, as incertezas inerentes ao fluxo
de caixa e, principalmente, a flexibilidade da dinâmica de decisões ao longo do
tempo. A metodologia proposta neste estudo é analisar o projeto imediato pelo
Método tradicional (VPL) e postergado pelos métodos de opções reais: Método
Binomial e Contingent Claims. Com isso, buscou-se avaliar o melhor momento
para a realização de um investimento em um Parque Eólico fictício no Nordeste
do Brasil, levando em consideração que o investidor pode realizar o projeto
imediatamente ou esperar.<br>Investments in energy are crucial to maintaining economic growth. The
demand growth drives the search for new sources that are both efficient
and renewable. In this context, investments in wind power are
increasing worldwide. However, in the Brazilian case, such investments have
different risk factors, such as regulatory, technical and market conditions. We will
use the Real Option Theory as a tool to determine the wind project’s value. This
method incorporates the uncertainties intrinsic to the cash flow, and especially the
flexibility of the over time decision dynamic, in the project value. In this work, we
propose a methodology that analyzes the immediate project by the traditional
method (VPL) and compare it with the delayed project analyzed by the two real
option variations: binomial method and Contingent Claims. Thus, we intend to
assess the best moment for investing in a fictitious wind farm in the northeastern
area of Brazil, considering the investor can wait or execute the project right away.
21
Adams, Jörg. "Applicability of real option valuation for high-risk investments /." Aachen : Shaker, 2004. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/381000915.pdf.
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FONSECA, FERNANDO VAIROLATTI DEL NEGRO. "PROJECT VALUATION ON CHEMISTRY SECTOR: A REAL OPTION APLICATION." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2008. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11874@1.
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CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO<br>O presente documento tem por objetivo realizar a análise de
viabilidade econômica para a implantação e operação da Fase
1 de um modelo de negócios voltado para a produção, no
mercado brasileiro, de tintas especiais para aplicações
industriais. Tal análise foi desenvolvida utilizando-se a
Teoria das Opções Reais em um processo de simulação de
Monte Carlo onde os custos (fatores de incerteza) serão
considerados estocásticos seguindo um movimento de reversão
à média. Desta forma serão quantificados os efeitos das
flexibilidades gerenciais e como estes afetam o valor do
projeto através de uma forma eficiente de simular fluxos de
caixa. O mercado dessas tintas especiais e patenteadas, tem
hoje participação expressiva na Europa e, pelas
características dos seus produtos, observa-se um alto
potencial de entrada no Brasil. São tintas anticorrosivas
isentas de pigmentos metálicos e solventes, indicadas para
todos os segmentos industriais, com alta resistência
química e mecânica e diversos tipos de acabamento. Uma das
grandes vantagens das tintas que utilizam essa tecnologia é
que o processo de cura não requer nenhum tipo de exposição
ao sol, evaporação ou radiação ultravioleta, resultando em
produtos com a fase de secagem mais rápida e vida útil
muito maior. O modelo de negócio da fase 1 consiste na
terceirização da produção onde, através da supervisão
direta, será verificada a correta alocação dos insumos de
modo garantir a qualidade das tintas. A forma como está
representada traz vantagens como a redução de investimentos
iniciais para implementação e a revelação de valiosas
informações de mercado.<br>The present document has as objective to analyze the
investment of the fase one start up of a business based on
special licenced industrial paint on the brazilian market.
Such analysis was accomplished with the Real Options
Theory based on a Monte Carlo Simulation process where the
costs (uncertainty factors) are stochastic and will follow
the Mean Reversion Model. Therefore, it will be able to
quantify the management flexibility and how they affect the
project value. Nowadays, this industrial paint market has
expressive profit share in Europe and a great potential in
Brazil. Those paints are anticorrosive and do not have
metallic pigments or solvents. They are indicated for all
industrial sectors with high chemistry and mechanic
resistence application. One of the great advantages on this
kind of paint is the lack of extensive time to become dry.
The fase one business model is bases on an outside
production and the correct formula will be obtained
throught direct supervision of qualified internal employees.
The bus iness model has advantages such as the reduction of
the inicial investments and the development of market knowledge.
23
Fayet, Jean-Baptiste 1974. "Real option approach to investments in electricity generating capacity." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/80939.
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Ipsmiller, Edith, Keith D. Brouthers, and Desislava Dikova. "25 Years of Real Option Empirical Research in Management." Wiley, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/emre.12324.
Full textAbstract:
For several decades, management scholars have extolled the virtues of using real option logic when making
decisions under uncertainty. Real option logic suggests that in such situations, firms might be better off deferring
or staging investments, reducing potential financial losses, while at the same time securing an option to grow (or
abandon) the investment when uncertainty abates. Our analysis of the empirical research published in
leading management journals over the past 25 years suggests that while some progress has been made, much
more work needs to be done. We still do not have the answers to critical questions such as: Which
entrepreneurial/managerial traits impact the identification or exploitation of real options? Do multiple types of
uncertainties interact with each other and influence real option decisions? Addressing these and other issues
identified in our study can help improve our understanding of the usefulness of real option logic in management.
25
Van, Enckevort Anna Marie. "Real option valuation of a portfolio of oil projects." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/8756.
Full textAbstract:
Various methodologies exist for valuing companies and their projects. We address the problem of valuing a portfolio of projects within companies that have infrequent, large and volatile cash flows. Examples of this type of company exist in oil exploration and development and we will use this example to illustrate our analysis throughout the thesis. The theoretical interest in this problem lies in modeling the sources of risk in the projects and their different interactions within each project. Initially we look at the advantages of real options analysis and compare this approach with more traditional valuation methods, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of each approach in the light of the thesis problem. We give the background to the stages in an oil exploration and development project and identify the main common sources of risk, for example commodity prices. We discuss the appropriate representation for oil prices; in short, do oil prices behave more like equities or more like interest rates? The appropriate representation is used to model oil price as a source of risk. A real option valuation model based on market uncertainty (in the form of oil price risk) and geological uncertainty (reserve volume uncertainty) is presented and tested for two different oil projects. Finally, a methodology to measure the inter-relationship between oil price and other sources of risk such as interest rates is proposed using copula methods.
26
MELLO, MARCELO BRAGA CORREA DE. "INVESTMENT PROJECT EVALUATION USING REAL OPTIONS: STANDBY OPTION VALUE CALCULATION OF A GRID-CONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2015. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=25462@1.
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Nos últimos anos, a energia fotovoltaica ganhou um espaço muito grande no cenário internacional e se tornou a terceira maior fonte mundial de geração de energia renovável, ficando atrás somente da energia hidroelétrica e da energia eólica. No Brasil, apesar de todas as características naturais favoráveis, tanto do ponto de vista de disponibilidade solar como de possibilidades de produção de silício com alto grau de pureza, a energia fotovoltaica tem uma participação incipiente na matriz energética. A Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL), através da publicação da Resolução n. 482, procurou estabelecer as condições gerais e reduzir as barreiras regulatórias existentes visando a expansão desse tipo de geração através da introdução do sistema de compensação de energia elétrica (net metering). O presente estudo buscou analisar o melhor momento para investir num projeto de implantação de um sistema de geração fotovoltaica conectado à rede (SFCR) sob a ótica do investidor, aplicando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR). As análises foram baseadas no fluxo de caixa estimado durante toda a vida útil do sistema gerador e o valor do projeto foi calculado considerando que o investidor poderia implantá-lo imediatamente ou ter a opção de espera por um momento mais apropriado. Os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimento como o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e payback foram utilizados nessas análises, bem como a Teoria de Opções Reais. A partir das análises, foi possível concluir que, dada as condições específicas do projeto proposto, a melhor opção seria a realização imediata do projeto do SFCR.<br>In recent years, photovoltaics gained a very large space in the international arena and have become the world s third largest source of renewable energy, second only to hydropower and wind energy. In Brazil, despite all the favorable natural features in terms of solar availability and production of high quality silicon s possibilities, photovoltaics has an incipient participation in the energy matrix. The Agency National of Electric Energy (ANEEL), through the Resolution 482, sought to establish the general conditions and reduce existing regulatory barriers aimed at the expansion of this type of generation through the introduction of electric power compensation system (net metering). This study investigates the best time to invest in a project to establish a grid-connected photovoltaic system, from the perspective of the investor, applying the Theory of Real Options (TOR). The analysis was based on estimated cash flow throughout the life of the generating system and the project value was calculated considering that the investor could deploy it immediately or have the option of waiting for a more appropriate time. Traditional methods of investment appraisal as the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback were used and real option theory (TOR) as well. From the analysis done in this study, it was concluded that, given the specific conditions of the proposed project, the best option would be held immediately the grid-connected photovoltaic system.
27
DIWAN, JOSE ROBERTO. "ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES OF INVESTMENT IN THE PETROLIFEROUS AREA UNDER THE OPTICS OF THE REAL OPTIONS INLAYING THE INVESTMENT OPTION IN INFORMATION." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2004. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=5075@1.
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COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>A inclusão da flexibilidade gerencial nas avaliações de
projetos vem promovendo análises mais condizentes com a
realidade, quando comparadas àquelas geradas pelos métodos
tradicionais (VPL e TIR, por exemplo). Isso porque, de
acordo com o comportamento do cenário, passa-se a
considerar a possibilidade de realizações de mudanças nos
planos anteriormente traçados. O estudo desse tema é
especialmente importante em cenários que apresentam
bastante incerteza associada, pesados investimentos e alto
grau de irreversibilidade. A indústria petrolífera encaixa-
se perfeitamente no perfil desse cenário, justificando
portanto, a consideração da flexibilidade gerencial nas
avaliações de seus projetos, feita através da analogia às
opções financeiras. Nesse caso, devido a ordem de grandeza
do investimento necessário para o desenvolvimento de um
campo de petróleo, o estudo das vantagens que possam
vir a ser proporcionadas por um investimento anterior em
informação, visando reduzir as incertezas presentes, é um
tópico que requer atenção especial, sendo então um dos
objetivos dessa dissertação. Para tanto, utilizando um
caso real da indústria petrolífera, foi considerada a
disponibilidade de três diferentes alternativas para o
desenvolvimento do campo, cada qual com sua escala. Daí,
sempre assumindo cenários com incertezas técnicas e
econômicas, foram feitas simulações para diferentes
percentuais de revelações das incertezas (proporcionados
pela informação anteriormente coletada), para diferentes
custos de investimento em informação e para diferentes
combinações de alternativas; simulação essa que ilustra o
valor agregado pela flexibilidade criada com a adição
de mais alternativas para o desenvolvimento do campo e que
vem a ser outro objetivo dessa dissertação.<br>The Real Options Theory approaches the reality in
financial analysis better than the traditional methods
(NPV and TIR, for example), as it turns possible to
change the plans that had already been done, according to
the situation (managerial flexibility). This subject is
very important, specially for projects that involve huge
amount of investment, a lot of uncertainty and low
reversibility. Normally, the oil industry s projects have
these kind of characteristics; justifying, this way, the
application of this theory. In this case, because of the
huge capital needed to be invested in order to develop the
oilfield, it s worthwhile to analyze the advantages that
can be provided by a forward investment in information in
order to reduce the technical uncertainty. This is one of
the objectives of this work. Therefore, one real case of
the oil industry is being used in this work, considering
three different available alternatives for the development
of the oilfield, which one having its own scales of
production, and always adopting situations with technical
and economic uncertainties. It was done simulations for
different percentage of uncertainties revelations
(provided by the information obtained forwardly), for
different costs of the investment in information and for
different quantities of alternatives available to the
manager. This last simulation shows the value added by the
flexibility provided with the increasing of alternatives
to develop the oilfield. This is the other objective of
this work.
28
Azevedo, Alcino Fernando Silva. "Investment decisions under uncertainty and competition : A real option approach." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.500479.
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Onkham, Wilawan. "A Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) Framework for Operational Innovations." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2013. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5996.
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Changing the business operations and adopting new operational innovations, have become key features for a business solution approach. However, there are challenges for developing innovative operations due to a lack of the proper decision analysis tools, lack of understanding the impacts transition will have on operational models, and the time limits of the innovation life cycle. The cases of business failure in operational innovation (i.e. Eastman Kodak Company and Borders Group Inc.,) support the need for an investment decision framework.
This research aims to develop a Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) framework for decision making, to support decision makers for operational innovation investments. This development will help the business/organization to recognize the need for change in operations, and quickly respond to market threats and customer needs. The RODD framework is developed by integrating a strategic investment method (Real Options Analysis), management transition evaluation (Matrix of Change), competitiveness evaluation (Lotka-Volterra), and dynamic behavior modeling (System Dynamics Modeling) to analyze the feasibility of the transformation, and to assess return on investment of new operation schemes.
Two case studies are used: United Parcel Service of America, Inc., and Firefighting Operations to validate the RODD framework. The results show that the benefits of this decision-making framework are (1) to provide increased flexibility, improved predictions, and more information to decision makers; (2) to assess the value alternative option with regards to uncertainty and competitiveness; (3) to reduce complexity; and (4) to gain a new understanding of operational innovations.<br>Ph.D.<br>Doctorate<br>Industrial Engineering and Management Systems<br>Engineering and Computer Science<br>Industrial Engineering
30
Landman, Daniel. "Real Option Analysis of Primary Rail Contracts in Grain Shipping." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2017. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/28647.
Full textAbstract:
Grain shipping for a country elevator involves many sources of risk and uncertainty. In response to these dynamic challenges faced by shippers, railroad carriers offer various types of forward contracting instruments and shuttle programs. Certain contracting instruments provide managerial flexibility by allowing shippers to sell excess railcars into a secondary market. The purpose of this study is to value this transferability as a European put option. A framework is developed around a material requirement planning schedule and real option analysis to represent the strategic decisions facing a primary shuttle contract owner. Monte Carlo simulation is incorporated with a stochastic binomial option pricing model to value the transfer option. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to determine the impact of key input variables. This study provides insights about railcar ordering strategy, and the implications of transferable rail contracts for shippers and carriers.
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Ben, Jazia Abderrahim. "Flexible public private partnerships : a real-option-based optimization approach." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0176/document.
Full textAbstract:
Les Partenariats Publics Privés (PPPs) peuvent être un outil efficace pour optimiser et moderniser la commande publique dans un contexte où les besoins en investissement public ne cessent d’accroître. Les fréquences importantes de renégociation et les difficultés à estimer correctement les revenus futurs demeurent un défi majeur lors de la structuration financière des PPPs. Ce travail propose d’incorporer des clauses financières flexibles afin de remédier à ce problème. L’approche développée se base sur les théories d’options réelles et d’optimisation multi-objectif. Dans un premier temps, une méthodologie adéquate pour la gestion des risques est développée. La volatilité du projet est déterminée par le biais de la simulation de Monte Carlo et un déflateur stochastique est introduit afin de conduire les différentes valorisations d’options sous la probabilité historique. Ce travail développe dans un second temps, quatre formes de flexibilité qui permettent de réajuster l'équilibre financier du projet, si le revenu est insuffisant. Enfin une approche d’optimisation multi-objectif est développée afin de permettre de visualiser les différents compromis auxquels l’introduction de la flexibilité donne lieu<br>Public private partnerships can be a solution to the dilemma of how to do more with less available funds that public entities are constantly financing in the last decades. If implemented properly, Public Private Partnerships can contribute to the modernization of public service provision and can constitute efficient vehicles for the delivery of optimal value for money. The high incidence of renegotiation as well as the difficulty of accurately predicting the future demand on the projects is a matter of concern when it comes to the financial structuring of Public Private Partnerships. This work proposes a real-option- based optimization framework to boost the financial viability of the projects. This is done by introducing flexible financial clauses. First, an adequate framework for risk management, where volatility is derived by Monte Carlo simulation and the valuation is made without switching to the risk neutral measure, is presented. Four families of flexible clauses are, afterwards, investigated. Such clauses are triggerred, if the revenue level of the projet is not sufficient to guarnatee its financiel viability. Finally, this work develops a multi-objective optimization approach in order to assess the different trade-offs that the introduction of flexibility leads to. The proposed optimization problem is solved via multi-objective evolutionary algorithms
32
Ben, Jazia Abderrahim. "Flexible public private partnerships : a real-option-based optimization approach." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0176.
Full textAbstract:
Les Partenariats Publics Privés (PPPs) peuvent être un outil efficace pour optimiser et moderniser la commande publique dans un contexte où les besoins en investissement public ne cessent d’accroître. Les fréquences importantes de renégociation et les difficultés à estimer correctement les revenus futurs demeurent un défi majeur lors de la structuration financière des PPPs. Ce travail propose d’incorporer des clauses financières flexibles afin de remédier à ce problème. L’approche développée se base sur les théories d’options réelles et d’optimisation multi-objectif. Dans un premier temps, une méthodologie adéquate pour la gestion des risques est développée. La volatilité du projet est déterminée par le biais de la simulation de Monte Carlo et un déflateur stochastique est introduit afin de conduire les différentes valorisations d’options sous la probabilité historique. Ce travail développe dans un second temps, quatre formes de flexibilité qui permettent de réajuster l'équilibre financier du projet, si le revenu est insuffisant. Enfin une approche d’optimisation multi-objectif est développée afin de permettre de visualiser les différents compromis auxquels l’introduction de la flexibilité donne lieu<br>Public private partnerships can be a solution to the dilemma of how to do more with less available funds that public entities are constantly financing in the last decades. If implemented properly, Public Private Partnerships can contribute to the modernization of public service provision and can constitute efficient vehicles for the delivery of optimal value for money. The high incidence of renegotiation as well as the difficulty of accurately predicting the future demand on the projects is a matter of concern when it comes to the financial structuring of Public Private Partnerships. This work proposes a real-option- based optimization framework to boost the financial viability of the projects. This is done by introducing flexible financial clauses. First, an adequate framework for risk management, where volatility is derived by Monte Carlo simulation and the valuation is made without switching to the risk neutral measure, is presented. Four families of flexible clauses are, afterwards, investigated. Such clauses are triggerred, if the revenue level of the projet is not sufficient to guarnatee its financiel viability. Finally, this work develops a multi-objective optimization approach in order to assess the different trade-offs that the introduction of flexibility leads to. The proposed optimization problem is solved via multi-objective evolutionary algorithms
33
Kim, Min-Jung Yao Tao. "Partnership conditions for new drug developemnt based on a real option." [University Park, Pa.] : Pennsylvania State University, 2009. http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/PSUonlyIndex/ETD-4058/index.html.
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Imamovic, Agnesa. "Real Option Valuation of Ericsson's High Precision In-Building Positioning (HIP)." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Inst.), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-45620.
Full textAbstract:
Ericsson is developing a new technology for accurate indoor positioning, named the HIP-solution. The HIP-solution is a joint product with areas of use in both the public safety market for emergency positioning and as a commercial platform for location based services. The driving force behind the development of Ericsson's HIP solution is E911, a legal requirement imposed in theU.S.where operators are required to position an emergency call within a radius of 50-300 meter, depending on available positioning technology. Location Based Services (LBS) are the other important market for the HIP-solution where the technology can be used to offer customized services for mobile users based on their location, such as guidance to the nearest banking cash machine, or whereabouts of friends or family. This master thesis is conducted at Ericsson, with the purpose of evaluate the HIP-solutions U.S market potential. The theoretical framework used in this paper is the Real Option Pricing Theory, with emphasis on the Expand Option. The theory provides a context for evaluating the HIP-solutions market potential based not only on its physical characteristics, but also of on future expand options and how well Ericsson manages to capture the cloud of externalities the HIP-solution as a joint product. Keywords Ericsson, HIP-High Precision In-building Positioning, U.S Emergency positioning legislation, Location Based Serviced, App, Real Option, Expand Option.
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Casault, Sebastien. "Real Option Pricing Model Applied to Industrial and Regional Benefits Policy." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/28760.
Full textAbstract:
This research intends to inform policy discussion on the subject of Aerospace and Defence sector procurement strategies at Industry Canada (IC). Specifically, this research explores procurement strategies in terms of a real option pricing model that move toward a novel use of Industrial and Regional Benefits (IRB) policies in promoting sector-specific, innovation-driven growth. It is further hypothesized that IRB obligations can be better tailored to encourage value adding activities within prime contractors' supply chains (typically small and medium enterprises in this sector). This research focusses on the novel development of a decision support tool using a theory of option pricing for derivatives whose returns fluctuate according to a power law distribution. This tool is shown to provide guidance to assist in adequately rewarding prime contractors who invest in innovative activities while fulfilling their IRB obligations.
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Munoz, Cesar. "A REAL OPTION STRATEGIC SCORECARD DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR IT PROJECT SELECTION." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2006. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2413.
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ABSTRACT The problem of project selection is of significant importance in management of information systems. Almost $2 trillion is spent worldwide every year on IT projects, with over $600 billion spent in the US alone. Traditionally, managers have being using the classical net present value (NPV) method in conjunction with multicriteria scoring models for ROI analysis and selection of IT project investments The multicriteria models use ad-hoc evaluation criteria to assign priority weights and then rate the alternatives against each criterion. These models have two limitations. First, the criteria and weights are based on subjective judgments, allowing the introduction of politics in the information management decision process and the generation of arbitrary results. Second, the classical approach uses deterministic estimations of the cost, benefits and the returns of the projects, without considering the impact of uncertainty and risk in the business decisions. This research proposed a better alternative for ROI analysis and selection of IT projects using a real option strategic scorecard (ROSS) approach. In contrast with traditional methodologies and previous research work, the ROSS decision framework uses a more comprehensive, axiomatic approach for systematically measuring both the business value and the strategic implications of IT project investments. The ROSS approach integrates in a unified IT project management decision framework the best elements of real option theory, strategic balanced scorecards, Monte Carlo simulations and analytical network processes to fully analyzes the effect of uncertainty and risk in the IT investment decisions. In addition, the ROSS approach complies with the critical success factors that have being identified in the literature for validation of IT decision frameworks. The main benefit of the ROSS approach is to enable managers to better compare and rank projects in the IT portfolio, optimizing the ROI analysis and selection of information system projects.<br>Ph.D.<br>Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems<br>Engineering and Computer Science<br>Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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LASKIER, RAFAEL CAMPOS. "REAL OPTION THEORY: AN INVESTMENT VALUATION APPROACH FOR VENTURE CAPITAL INDUSTRY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2007. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11346@1.
Full textAbstract:
A metodologia tradicional do fluxo de caixa descontado,
amplamente
adotado pelas empresas para avaliar investimentos e
tomar
decisões, possui
diversas limitações quando a análise está sujeita a
incertezas e existem
flexibilidades gerenciais. A teoria de opções reais
surge
como uma metodologia
mais adequada para este tipo de cenário, uma vez que
permite a avaliação do
investimento em função das flexibilidades incluídas no
projeto que podem ser
modeladas de maneira semelhante ao cálculo do valor de
uma
opção financeira do
mercado de capitais. Este trabalho analisa um
investimento
para um projeto de
uma empresa que capta recursos através da formação de um
fundo de Venture
Capital. A utilização do método de opções reais para
avaliação de projetos
financiados através deste tipo de captação é
recomendada,
uma vez que os
mesmos encontram-se em estágio de desenvolvimento
inicial,
submetidos a um
ambiente de forte incerteza e com a existência de
flexibilidades gerenciais que
afetam a tomada de decisão. A indústria de Venture
Capital
é tipicamente
representada por empresas de elevado crescimento nos
primeiros anos de
investimento e forte volatilidade dos retornos esperados
(incerteza). O projeto
apresentou VPL negativo quando a abordagem tradicional é
utilizada e, ao aplicar
a metodologia de opções reais, foi possível perceber que
este resultado subestima
o valor do projeto e leva a uma tomada de decisão não
ótima. A partir deste
trabalho, conclui-se que, em cenários de grande
incerteza
e existência de
flexibilidades, como é o caso de investimentos de
Venture
Capital, o método de
valoração mais adequado é a metodologia de opções reais.<br>The traditional discounted cash flow method, which is
commonly used by
companies to analyze capital budgeting investments, has
important limitations
when uncertainty and managerial flexibility are present.
For these types of project,
option pricing methods are more appropriate, since they
allow the value of these
managerial flexibilities to be adequately captured and
valued. In this work we
analyze the investment in a project through a venture
capital fund, and show that
the use of the real option method for the valutation of
this type of projects and
financing scheme is recommended, given these projects are
in the initial stages of
development, have a high degree of uncertainty and allow
significant managerial
flexibility. The Venture Capital industry is typically
represented by firms with
high growth rates in their initial years and high
volatility of the expected returns.
The results show that the project has a negative NPV under
the traditional
discounted cash flow method, but with real option
valuation the project value was
significantly higher, which shows that non optimal
decisions may occur if project
flexibility is not valued. We conclude that when high
levels of uncertainty and
flexibility exist, such as is the case of investments in
Venture Capital projects, the
real options method provides a more adequate value for the
project.
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FILIPPO, THAIS HERNANDEZ. "STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS PLANNING AND EXECUTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: REAL OPTION THEORY CONTRIBUTIONS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2011. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=19254@1.
Full textAbstract:
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO<br>Este trabalho se propõe a orientar como utilizar de forma conjunta e
complementar os conceitos de Estratégia Empresarial e Finanças, mais
especificamente da Teoria de Opções Reais, uma moderna teoria de análise de
investimentos sob incerteza. Nas empresas vem coexistindo dois sistemas para a
alocação de recursos: o planejamento estratégico e a orçamentação de capital, em
geral, o primeiro define as iniciativas estratégicas e o segundo faz a verificação de
viabilidade econômico-financeira destas iniciativas. Entretanto, muitas vezes a
intuição vai contra as análises financeiras tradicionais. Além disso, a
complexidade da tomada de decisão estratégica em um ambiente de incerteza vem
crescendo em função do acelerado dinamismo do mercado e da infinidade de
oportunidades que aparecem em um mundo altamente globalizado e conectado.
Portanto, a união dos conceitos atualmente dispersos nestes dois sistemas é de
fundamental importância para a deliberação e execução de estratégias consistentes
e lucrativas. A Teoria de Opções Reais, cujas características se aproximam mais
da realidade estratégica por considerar as flexibilidades gerenciais e não ter a
abordagem passiva das ferramentas tradicionais, aparece, então, como uma
resposta a esta necessidade de aproximação. Neste contexto, esta dissertação
busca analisar a contribuição desta teoria à Estratégia Empresarial e construir um
modelo que aproxime estes dois campos de estudo e direcione a prática de
planejamento e execução de investimentos estratégicos.<br>This work intends to give guidance on how to use jointly and
complementarily the concepts of Corporate Strategy and Finance, specifically the
Theory of Real Options, a modern theory of investment analysis under
uncertainty. In corporate practice are co-existing two systems for resource
allocation, strategic planning and capital budgeting. Usually the first defines the
strategic initiatives and the second checks the economic viability of these
initiatives. However, intuition often goes against the traditional financial analysis.
Moreover, the complexity of strategic decision making in an uncertain
environment is growing rapidly as a function of market dynamics and the myriad
of opportunities that appear in a highly globalized and connected world.
Therefore, the union of these two concepts currently dispersed in these systems is
of fundamental importance for the deliberation and execution of consistent and
profitable strategies. Real Options Theory, whose characteristics are closer to
reality by considering the strategic and managerial flexibility and not having the
passive approach of traditional tools, then appears as a response to this need for
approximation. In this context, this dissertation seeks to analyze the contribution
of this theory to business strategy and build a model that combines these two
fields of study and directs the practice of planning and execution of strategic
investments.
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CHAGASTELLES, THAISSA DUARTE. "VALUATION OF SMART COMPLETION VALUE IN WELL CONVERTION USING REAL OPTION." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=34499@1.
Full textAbstract:
PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO<br>PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTITUIÇÕES COMUNITÁRIAS DE ENSINO PARTICULARES<br>A completação inteligente é uma tecnologia inovadora que permite uma maior eficiência na produção dos campos do pré-sal, a principal fronteira de produção do Brasil atualmenente. Além disso, uma técnica comumente utilizada nos projetos de petróleo é a conversão de poços produtores em injetores quando há um declínio na vazão de produção. Saber valorar um projeto de petróleo que possua a opção de conversão para poços injetores no futuro, de forma a decidir qual tipo de completação é a que maior valor agrega, é um dos objetivos de um tomador de decisão na área petrolífera. Esta dissertação aborda o uso da teoria de
opções reais, através da técnica de diferenças finitas, com o objetivo de analisar se é vantajoso adotar a tecnologia de completação inteligente frente à completação convencional baseado no valor agregado por cada uma em um projeto de petróleo com conversão de poço. Como contribuição final, o projeto propõe a aplicação de um modelo de opções reais, com uma janela de exercício temporal, para a decisão de qual tecnologia de completação um projeto da indústria petrolífera deve considerar.<br>Smart well is a new technology that allows greater efficiency in pre-salt production, which is currently the largest production frontier in Brazil. Another technique used in oil projects is the conversion of production wells in injector wells when there is a decline in production. Valuing an oil project that has the option to allow conversion to injector wells in the future and decide what kind of completion adds more value is one of the objectives of the decision maker in the oil industry. This dissertation addresses the use of real option theory, by using finite differences, with the objective of analyzing whether it is advantageous to adopt smart completion compared to conventional completion based on the value added by each one in an oil project with a well conversion. As final contribution, this project proposes the application of real option model, with a limited exercise interval, to decide what completion technology an oil company may consider.
40
Babajide, Abisoye (Abisoye E. ). "Real option analysis as a decision tool in oil field developments." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43101.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2007.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 58-59).<br>This thesis shows the applicability and value of real options analysis in developing an oil field, and how its use along with decision analysis can maximize the returns on a given project and minimize the losses. It focuses on how capacity flexibility, the option to change the scale of a project, can significantly add value to a project especially in situations where technical uncertainties exist in a field development. This thesis first analyzes the Sample and Rother field case study, looking at the original project team's assumptions and expectations, the key uncertainties and the final outcomes. It then offers up an alternate approach to the problem using real options analysis that would have added more value to the project. It shows that for the given case study, it would have been beneficial to obtain the option to add capacity to the field development. It also recommends the level of capacity flexibility to include that adds the most expected value to maximize gains and minimize losses for various development scenarios.<br>by Abisoye Babajide.<br>S.M.
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Lin, Yen-Ching, and 林衍慶. "Stock Repurchase and Real Option." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83079081024193353842.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>元智大學<br>財務金融暨會計碩士班(財務金融學程)<br>104<br>This paper takes real option approach to model how companies consider exercising share repurchase when stock price are undervalued. Companies in deciding whether to execute the stock repurchase, there are many considerations, so there were many factors to explore the implementation of the hypothesis and there are many Share Repurchases Hypothesis. Signal Theory is one of the most discussed and widely studied. The researches of Dann (1981), Vermaelen (1981), Asquith and Mullins (1986) and Comment and Jarrell (1991) support the signal theory while Grullon (2004)’s against the signal theory. Most verifications use abnormal return. However, in this paper I want to verify the motivation, not reactions about share repurchase. Therefore, I take real option approach to model how companies consider exercising share repurchase. Then the model’s parameter is verified. If parameter’s direction consistent with market direction. It supposed to be a successful evidence for the Signal Theory.
42
Kumar, Jiguita Manish. "The risk variable in a sequential investment option: a Real Options' approach." Master's thesis, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/86104.
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Kumar, Jiguita Manish. "The risk variable in a sequential investment option: a Real Options' approach." Dissertação, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/86104.
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Du, Hua-Ho, and 杜華和. "Intellectual Property Valuation ~ Using Real Option Approach." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/58702427366009905650.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立中興大學<br>高階經理人碩士在職專班<br>93<br>Market Approach, Cost Approach, Income Approach and the Real Option Approach are common approaches in the field of ‘Intellectual Property Valuation’. Being Different from the other three approaches, the Real Option Approach valuate not only the ‘Risk’ aspect of an object but also the value of the object itself on the basis of Opportunity and Flexibility. The study adopted the Real Option Approach and Black-Scholes Model; took Patent, one of the Intellectual Properties, as the valuation object and chose new drug industry as the study case to examine the Approach.
The result of this study was during the process of valuation, although Quantity Models were used, the results of the calculation turned out to be variant due to the subjective judgment of the parameters given in the models. The Patent value should be determined by both sides of the transactions that followed the economic law, adopted their own suitable models, chose the reasonable parameters, found out their value and they finalized the transaction after having the negotiation on the Price issue. The ‘Valued Price’ was not the only issue when it came to a transaction.
The study suggested that in order to enhance the recognition of the qualifications, Certified Valuation Analyst in Taiwan should cooperate with National Association of Certified Valuation Analysts (NACVA) to issue the international certificates. By doing so, it will help the financing organization to get the trustworthiness about the result of the valuation. Furthermore, it will empower the intellectual properties collateral as an efficient financing tool.
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Cho, KEI, and 鄒貴聖. "The real option approch to investment decision." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/88253351629355074944.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>長庚醫學暨工程學院<br>管理科學系<br>85<br>AbstractThe investment decisions that are assessed by
traditional financial criteria and strategic tools cannot
reflect efficiently the real value of investment project under
fierce environment fluctuation and uncertainty. In recent years,
performing of strategic investment was viewed as a relative
theory that extends from real option. Just like dynamic
programming that provides investors a method of contingent
decision and a solution to the deviation of investment
evaluation.The concept of real option is the value of real
assets include not only the intrinsic value but also the values
of opportunity and flexibility. The study aimed at the basic
concept and the structure of principle of real option to
investment decision. By the help of relative literatures, we can
build up the model of assessment of abandonment option and also
by using empirical test to prove the correctness of using the
real option to investment decision making.The results of this
study are:Investors will get higher value if they choose giving
up their investment when exit value of the firm is higher.If the
possibility of a firm giving up its operation is high, it will
increase the value of abandonment option value and firm''s value.
The real option assessment model is useful for evaluation of
real assets, and is more suitable to the situation that has more
uncertainties than NPV.The managerial meanings of the results of
this study are:In the economic backdrop of diversified,
competitive and declining market, investor should stop operating
and halt the idea of long term running of the investment.
Investors and entrepreneurs should own a determined spirit. They
should make proper decision in proper time to increase the
value. Hesitation only induces loss.The real option approach
provides another course to evaluation investment. A more
flexible and contingent way of decision is the most important
contribution of this approach.
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LIN, CHING-FENG, and 林慶豐. "Real option valuation of urban regeneration application." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09002464956834429365.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立臺灣科技大學<br>營建工程系<br>98<br>The urban regeneration practice operates has the high uncertainty and the risk, but the traditional value evaluated method is unable to express the urban regeneration project accurately the value which conceals under the uncertain factor. Therefore, in this research that applies the method of real options for the characteristics of the urban regeneration practice operates to evaluate the value of urban regeneration investment proposal and inquire the option value into enterprise period and construction period of urban regeneration. At the same time, this study includes giving up value in enterprise period that make practitioner invests more flexible and accord with the characteristics of urban regeneration operation. Finally, this research carries on the case analysis, confirmed the expanded Net Present Value ( NPV) of real option is bigger than the traditional one. After the sensitivity analysis, we find that urban regeneration option is influenced by these parameters: urban regeneration income, volatility and construction cost.
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Chou-wen, Wang, and 王昭文. "Valuing BOT Projects -A Real Option Approach." Thesis, 1998. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98041405370358262938.
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CHEN, MING-YU, and 陳明裕. "Family Firm, Real Option, and Investment Policy." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17269755884590507252.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立高雄大學<br>金融管理學系碩士班<br>104<br>We examine the relation between family ownership and corporate investment policy. Our analysis centers on two hypotheses: (1) family owners’ risk aversion (Anderson et al., 2012) and (2) their option to invest (Grullon et al., 2012), which potentially influence the level and type of investments that family firms undertake.
If real option hypothesis dominates the risk aversion hypothesis,(1) we find that firms in Taiwan devote more capital to long-term investments while they possess real option; (2) when dividing long-term investment into its two components of R&D and capital expenditures, we note that family firms, relative to non-family firms, prefer investing in physical assets relative to riskier R&D projects, even though they possess real option; (3) additional tests indicate that family firms receive more patents per dollar of R&D investment and more patent citations per dollar of R&D investment relative to nonfamily firms.
Overall, our empirical results indicate that family preferences for lower firm risk, across all family subtypes, affects corporate R&D spending and capital expenditures.
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TSENG, WEI-JERNG, and 曾維正. "Venture Capital Investment Using Real Option Approach." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/76289141866815524110.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立臺灣大學<br>財務金融學研究所<br>90<br>This thesis explores the venture capital investment in high tech company with large capital expenditure, high technical barrier and high market uncertainty. This thesis uses TFT-LCD 5th generation production line as example and further identified the uncertainties embedded in TFT-LCD production line investment. By using the real option approach, the managerial flexibility can be addressed properly for maximum investment return. We also provided a numerical example to provide company executives practical reference in decision-making.
From the numerical examples, we had demonstrated that the option embedded in the TFT-LCD production line build up provided high values for flexibility. We examine options included defer, expand, contract, and combined multiple options. Among these options examined, we find that:
Option to expand grows more sharply as compare to volatility and yield rate change. This implies that company tends to expand capacity when volatility goes higher and output yield improved.
Option to defer decreases its value when volatility increases; increases its value when output yield increases. As for interest rate sensitivity, option to defer has its maximum option value at 10% and decreases as interest rate decreases and increases.
Option to contract value is small when compares with other options. It increases its value as volatility increases. It decreases its value as interest rate and output yield decreases.
Combined multiple options value (defer + expand + contract) is smaller than the sum of single option. This is due to the negative interaction effect among single option.
It is this thesis’ intention to provide a simple and practical valuation model for venture capital investment. By using real option approach, we can easily capture the flexibility value in venture capital investment with high capital expenditure such as TFT-LCD production line investment.
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吳聰皓. "The valuation of projects:a real-option approach." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/56209495792233028871.
Full textAbstract:
博士<br>國立政治大學<br>財務管理研究所<br>98<br>Valuation of R&D projects is quite complex due to the substantial uncertainties in a project's life-cycle phases. The sequential nature of R&D projects continuously provides decision-makers with choices regarding whether and when to undertake future potential investment opportunities. This means that when valuing R&D projects decision-makers should take these factors into account. But R&D project usually takes long time to complete processes for commercialization. If the time to complete is longer, it is easier to trigger the crisis for capital shortage. So it seems very important modeling the capital shortage risk to induce the probability of failure in the pricing model. In this thesis we try to apply the analogy of financial securities subject to credit risk of Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and attempt to value patents with capital shortage risk in an arbitrage free environment using the martingale measure technique. Furthermore, derive closed form formula for patents valuation which makes application easier than that of the theoretic option model. The major findings are: (1) when considering the effect of the failure frequency (capital shortage risk), the patent value will grow rapidly and then converge in the short run, no matter how other parameters incorporated into the robust analysis; (2) when increasing in the volatility of market revenues with synchronized higher volatility of investment cost, the volatility curve will be distorted to be U-shaped. Meanwhile, lower failure frequency could aggravate the decreasing in the option value.
Another issue is when the manager exercises the project with multiple underlying assets, where the assets returns are of non-linear correlation particularly in the non-Normal environment. Non-parametric dependence measures may better employed when explaining co-movement. We focus on the value of a (such as resources development) project in general depends on the price of the multiple products; these are usually correlated to some extent. So the project was treated as having a rainbow option, whose underlying asset prices correlate with each other, and also as having uncertainties that decrease according to the project stage. Based on Cherubini and Luciano’s framework (2002), the risk-neutral copula models are derived to figure decision flexibilities out easily. The main framework studies the valuation of a project (call on Max) by determining the joint risk-neutral distribution of the underlying assets (products) using copulas. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the higher default risk and association among the assets and the expected cost to completion contributes the higher risk premium in our model with dependence structure of Archimedean copula family than traditional Black-Scholes environment.