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Stevenson, James Robert. "Predicting U. S. recessions : the housing market and 2008 recession." Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2010. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/1502.
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This item is only available in print in the UCF Libraries. If this is your Honors Thesis, you can help us make it available online for use by researchers around the world by following the instructions on the distribution consent form at http://library.ucf.edu/Systems/DigitalInitiatives/DigitalCollections/InternetDistributionConsentAgreementForm.pdf You may also contact the project coordinator, Kerri Bottorff, at kerri.bottorff@ucf.edu for more information.Bachelors
Business Administration
Economics
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Helmersson, Tobias, Hana Kang, and Robin Sköld. "Gold During Recessions : A study about how gold can improve the performance of a portfolio during recessions." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Accounting and Finance, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-7746.
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Problem
When choosing topic for this study the economy was on the brink of a recession. Many experts made varying statements regarding this fact, and further readings in this area led us to question: can an in- clusion of gold enhance the performance in an index portfolio dur- ing recessions? And if so, how much should be allocated to gold?
Purpose
The purpose of this thesis is to look back at the historical price de- velopment of gold and DJIA during recessions in order to find out whether an inclusion of gold can improve a DJIA index portfolio held in today’s recession. In addition, by analyzing the risks and pos- sibilities with gold, the optimal allocation of gold in a DJIA portfolio will be investigated in.
Method
The methodological approach will be of a quantitative data analysis approach. By using historical data, new empirical findings will be found by using the deductive approach. This method has been cho- sen due to the nature of the purpose and in order to best give a gen- eral answer to our research questions.
Conclusion
The gold price is strongly influenced by uncertainty, and even though an optimal allocation of gold in each recession could be found, no general optimal allocation applicable in today’s recession could be found. Gold has higher risk (higher variance) than DJIA, but is compensated with higher return as well.
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Xing, Kai. "Macroeconomic conditions, corporate defaults, and economic recessions." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2017. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/39401/.
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In this thesis, I investigate effective predictors for corporate defaults and measurement of economic recessions. I use corporate default probabilities in US industrial firms from April 1980 to December 2014 and effective predictors extracted from 92 macroeconomic and financial variables and I propose a framework to determine whether there is a dynamic in effective predictors for US corporate defaults. I apply LASSO, an advanced variable selection technique, and I find that there are no macro factors that can consistently explain default risk over time, suggesting that default risk has been dynamic during the 35-year period. These dynamics persist even during non-recession periods. Interestingly, the strong predictive powers of macro factors over shorter periods are related to monetary policy indicators and tools, which provides empirical support for prior theoretical theories that emphasize the unique role of monetary policies in corporate defaults. Another interesting finding is that institutional market funding, as the liquidity source provided by non-bank groups, has gradually impacted on corporate defaults since the 2001 recession. In the financial crisis occuring in 2007 this money market funds (MMFs) have strongest impact on corproate defaults. This implies that MMFs paly a crucial role of destabilizing credit markets in recent years, which is consistent with current studies of whether MMFs can result in financial stability. I study US economic recessions by introducing a cutting-edged technique from the Natural Sciences in order to capture the critical transitions in the macroeconomic system, using hundreds of macroeconomic and financial variables covering the period January 1980 to December 2014. Based on this method, I construct macro indicators to measure the interactions among these variables in order to capture the critical transitions in the macroeconomic system. Then I employ a standard logit model to study whether these proposed indicators offer a prediction one-month ahead of US economic recessions from September 1980 to December 2014. I find that the interactions among macroeconomic and financial variables measured by covariance among these variables can provide one-month ahead prediction for US economic recessions. In particular, the best predictive macro indicators are constructed by employing procyclical factors and factors from six economic groups based on results from both in-sample and out-of-sample analysis. Regarding the standard ideal indicator defined by Shiskin and Moore (1967), the indicator constructed by procyclical factors is preferable over that constructed by the factors from six economic groups since the former is smoother. I also find that the threshold based on 25% for classifying the recessions can generate better estimation results than using 50%, consistent with prior studies. In forecasting economic recessions in the US, the indicator generated by using broad macro factors is able to provide predictive power. The implication of these results is to provide a new quantitative approach for central bankers and policy makers to predict economic recessions one month ahead.
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Di, Caro Paolo. "Recessions, Recoveries and Regional Resilience: an econometric perspective." Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/1540.
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Three chapters constitute the main structure of this contribution. Chapter I reviews selected theoretical and empirical approaches dealing with regional evolution in order to identify recent developments and extensions incorporating spatial econometrics techniques. Chapter II investigates transient and permanent asymmetric effects of national-wide recessions across Italian regions during the last thirty years, by proposing the recent resilience framework as an helpful synthesis. Chapter III studies the determinants of the uneven cross-regional behaviour during crises and recoveries, by presenting two complementary econometric models, namely a linear vector error correction (VECM) model and a non-linear smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) specification.
Some of the main results here obtained are: regions within the same country differ in terms of both shock-absorption and post-recession pattern; the broad impact of a common shock shall take into account temporary and persistent effects; differences in recessions and recoveries among areas can be motivated by some elements such as industrial structure, export propensity, human and civic capital, and financial constraints. Moreover, the presence of spatial interdependencies and neighbouring interactions can play a relevant role.
Moving from some of the results here presented, the desirable next step should be addressed towards a deeper analysis of the determinants of regional heterogeneity during recessions and recoveries, cross-country comparisons, the development of a more structured theoretical and empirical background, the assessment of the place-specific impact of countercyclical policies. These and other questions are left for future research.
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Thibane, Tankiso Abel. "Response of the IMF and the World Bank to the Great Recession and the Euro sovereign crisis in a globalising world." Thesis, Nelson Mandela University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/16142.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) now the World Bank, were created in the mid-1940s. The IMF was tasked to manage the post-war international monetary system, while the World Bank’s role during its early years was to provide development finance to war-torn Europe. These institutions reformed some of their roles to make them relevant to the globalising world over the years and also responded to several post-war crises. Since these two institutions carry out their roles in a globalising world, this study has revealed that globalisation has different interpretations as many researchers refer to the economic and non-economic explanations of its meaning. Globalisation is also a historical process as it traces back several years ago. Since approximately the mid-2000s, the global economy experienced two economic crises, namely the US sub-prime financial crisis that later became the Great Recession and the Euro sovereign crisis. The two economic crises spread to other countries globally that were interconnected into the global economy regarding international trade, investment and banking. These two crisis events required responses from the IMF and the World Bank. The two institutions displayed a variety of strengths and weaknesses in dealing with the recession and the Euro crisis. The lending of both these institutions has been their strength as they have managed to expand their lending capacity during the two crisis periods examined. The IMF’s crisis intervention time frames have also been its strength, as the speed in which it has approved financial assistance requests has been within reasonable time frames. The IMF’s new lending instruments have been its weakness, as the success of these instruments has not been fully tested so far. This is because of the little use of the IMF’s new lending instruments. The IMF’s crisis prevention efforts through the use of its surveillance tools have also been its flaw. This is based on the fact that it has failed to prevent the US financial crisis (later the Great Recession) and the Euro sovereign crisis. Overall, this study found that these institutions played a significant role in responding to the Great Recession and Euro sovereign crisis as their strengths outweigh their weaknesses. However, the weaknesses of the IMF confirm that it needs to reform its role and learn from its flaws in the future.
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Naidoo, Jefrey Subramoney. "Forecasting recessions: The convergence of information and predictive analytics." THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA, 2011. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3439830.
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Castro, Fernandez Juan Carlos. "Essays on financial crises, big recessions and slow recoveries." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106445/.
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In this thesis I presented two essays motivated by the observation that financial crises tend to be accompanied by deeper recessions and slower recoveries, partly due to debt burden (e.g. Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009; Hong and Tornell, 2005; Jordà, et al., 2013). In the first essay I evaluate this claim against the contrasting view that magnitude and persistence of recessions is rather the consequence of bigger and more persistent shocks (Stock & Watson, 2012). To do so, I compute recovery and recession paths through the estimation of impulse responses by local projections methods (Jordà, 2005). I found that the occurrence of financial crises is associated with more severe recessions only if the recession itself is big enough. But this effect disappears when the output loss caused by the recession is below the historical average. More importantly, neither the magnitude of the loss, nor the occurrence of financial crises, nor debt accumulation are associated with sluggish output growth during recoveries. It has also being suggested that expectations prior to the crisis help to determine the magnitude and length of recessions following financial crises (Chauvet and Guo, 2003; Cerra and Saxena, 2008). This and the role of pre-crisis dynamics is not properly reflected in standard DSGE models. In the second essay I account for the effect of pre- crisis dynamics and evaluate whether financial crises are different. To do so, I introduce optimism (in the form of unrealised news about capital quality) in an otherwise standard DSGE model with financial frictions. Under this framework, optimism generates investment–debt / boom-bust cycles accompanied by long recessions. I found that within this framework cycles associated with financial and technology news shocks are different regarding the responses of asset prices and banks’ net worth. Real variables respond similarly to unjustified financial or technological optimism.
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Forsythe, Eliza C. (Eliza Carla). "Hiring, recessions, and careers : three essays in personnel economics." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90122.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, 2014.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 100-103).
Workers find wage-growth and job-satisfaction by building careers. However a worker's ability to string together a sequence of jobs relies on the availability of appropriate opportunities either within their current firm or in other firms in the market. In this thesis, I investigate how variation in the labor market affects this career building process. In the first chapter, I find that career opportunities are scarce for young workers during recessions, and use theory and evidence to argue that this is due to firms choosing to hire more experienced workers instead. In the second chapter, I find that firms reallocate their employees between occupations during recessions, leading workers to receive lower wages and be employed in lower-quality occupations. In the third chapter, I develop a model to explain why workers change firms when opportunities exist within the firm. I show that heterogeneity in firms' production functions and human capital acquisition are sufficient to generate these movements. More specifically, in the first two chapters I use data from the CPS to study reallocations over the business cycle. In Chapter 1, I find that during recessions the probability of being hired falls for young workers, while for experienced workers it rises. I develop a model and show this fact can be explained by firms choosing to hire workers with greater work experience when labor markets are slack. My model provides the distinctive prediction that during recessions, young workers will match with lower-quality jobs and receive lower wages while experienced workers will exhibit no change in either dimension. I develop occupational quality indices using O*NET and OES data and find evidence consistent with both predictions, suggesting that firms' hiring behavior actively contributes to negative outcomes for young workers during recessions. In Chapter 2, I document that occupational mobility is counter-cyclical. I show this is driven by an increase in occupational mobility within firms. I show that these within-firm occupation changers lose ground during recessions, matching with lower-quality jobs and receiving lower wages. Combined with the recessionary increase in within-firm mobility, these results suggest a previously undiscovered cost of recessions borne by employed workers. Finally, in Chapter 3, I develop a model that demonstrates how career-advancing inter-firm mobility can persist despite the possibility of within-firm mobility. I argue that many of these movements are driven by firm heterogeneity and human capital acquisition and show such a model can capture three key empirical regularities: experienced workers are hired into advanced positions, wages rise more at movements between positions (within and between firms) than at stays in the current firm, and external hires tend to have different qualifications than internal promotees. JEL Classification: E24, J62, M51.
by Eliza C. Forsythe.
Ph. D.
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Huang, Di. "Predicting Recessions in the U.S. with Yield Curve Spread." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2013. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/27126.
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This paper proposes a hidden Markov model for the signal of U.S. recessions. The model uses the spread of interest rate between 10-year Treasury bond and 3-month Treasury bill, together with other financial indicators which are the real M2 growth, the change in the Standard and Poor's 500 index of stock prices, and difference between the 6-month commercial paper and 6-month Treasury bill rates as predictors. The hidden Markov model considers temporal dependence between the recession signals and provides an estimate of the long-term probability of recessions. The empirical results indicate the hidden Markov model well predict the signal of recessions in the U.S.
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Chairattanapisuth, Termsak. "Processes a business can use to stay competitive during a recession." Online version, 2001. http://www.uwstout.edu/lib/thesis/2001/2001chairattanapt.pdf.
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Malmberg, Selma. "Great recessions, economic inequalities and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Le Mans, 2024. https://theses.hal.science/tel-04891663.
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Cette thèse explore l'interaction entre les chocs macroéconomiques, les inégalités économiques et l'efficacité de diverses politiques publiques dans le contexte français. Les crises affectent les ménages différemment selon la distribution des revenus et des richesses. En outre, les politiques publiques peuvent s’avérer plus efficaces lorsqu’elles ciblent leurs actions sur les ménages les plus affectés ou les plus réactifs. Par exemple, la politique fiscale peut stimuler efficacement la demande en concentrant les transferts vers les ménages ayant une forte propension marginale à consommer, plutôt que de les distribuer à l’ensemble des ménages. Pour ce faire, on utilise des modèles d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique intégrant des agents hétérogènes et des rigidités néo-keynésiennes.Le premier chapitre présente comment résoudre et estimer ce type de modèles, méthodologie sur laquelle repose les chapitres suivants. Le chapitre 2 évalue la réponse du gouvernement français à la récente crise énergétique, l’implémentation d’un bouclier tarifaire. Cette politique est comparée à des scénarios alternatifs : des transferts ciblés et l'indexation des salaires sur les prix. Le bouclier tarifaire a soutenu la croissance économique, réduit l'inflation et freiné l'augmentation des inégalités de consommation au prix d'une légère augmentation du ratio dette/PIB. Le chapitre 3 évalue différentes politiques d'assainissement budgétaire dans le contexte français. Ces politiques peuvent échouer parce que leurs effets récessifs font baisser encore davantage le ratio dette/PIB ou parce que l'augmentation des inégalités qui en résulte entraîne des troubles sociaux et des résultats électoraux qui compromettent la continuité de ces programmes. Toutefois, ce chapitre montre qu'il est possible de réduire le ratio dette/PIB sans pénaliser la croissance ni aggraver les inégalités en réduisant les transferts d'assurance sociale tout en augmentant les aides sociales. Le dernier chapitre examine les conséquences macroéconomiques des fluctuations de l'impôt sur le revenu et de l'incertitude fiscale qui en résulteThis PhD thesis explores the interplay between macroeconomic shocks, economic inequalities, and the effectiveness of various policy interventions in the French context. Crises affect households differently across income and wealth distribution. Besides, public policies can become more efficient by targeting their actions on the most affected and most responsive households. For example, fiscal policy can support demand at a reduced cost by transferring money to households with a high marginal propensity to consume instead of all households. For this purpose, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models with heterogeneous agents and new Keynesian features are used.The first chapter outlines the methodology for solving and estimating such models, on which the following chapters build. Chapter 2 evaluates the French government's response to the recent energy crisis, implementing a tariff shield. This policy is compared to alternative scenarios, including targeted transfers, and wage indexation on prices. The tariff shield supported economic growth, reduced inflation, and curtailed the increase in consumption inequalities at the cost of a slight rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Chapter 3 assesses different fiscal consolidation policies in the French context. Such policies may fail because their recessive effects further depress the debt-to-GDP ratio or because the resulting rising inequalities, lead to social unrest and electoral outcomes that undermine the continuity of these programs. However, this chapter shows that reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio can be achieved without penalizing GDP growth or worsening inequalities by reducing social insurance-based transfers while increasing social assistance transfers. The last chapter examines the macroeconomic consequences of income tax fluctuations and the resulting tax uncertainty
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos, and Johann Scharler. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions." Taylor & Francis, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3468/1/BC_dcc_final_AEL.pdf.
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Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model due to Engle (2002), we estimate time varying correlations of quarterly real GDP growth among the G7 countries. In general, we find that rather heterogeneous patterns of international synchronization exist during US recessions. During the 2007-2009 recession, however, international co-movement increased substantially. (authors' abstract)
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Coleman, John J. (John James). "Economics, recessions, and party decline : American parties in the fiscal state." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/13188.
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Owan, Lucas M. "The Effects of Recessions and Market Sizes on NBA Player Salary." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1491.
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Some teams in the National Basketball Association experienced revenue declines during the Great Recession. Previous literature has found that teams in larger markets are able to generate more revenue due to higher populations. The recession left small-market teams suffering financially. I analyze a player based on his performance and examine if market size and recessions appreciate or depreciate a player’s salary. Further, I investigate if the competitive imbalance between big-market and small-market teams expanded due to the recession. My results suggest recessions do not have an impact on player salary, however player salary decreased by a small margin in post-recession years. The 2008 Great Recession did not enhance the competitive imbalance among teams. The NBA did an effective job accounting for decreasing team revenues during the recession and confirming all teams could spend amounts at or near the salary cap.
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos. "Business Cycle Synchronization During US Recessions Since the Beginning of the 1870s." Elsevier, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3602/1/BC_1870%2D2011_EconLet_PrePrint.pdf.
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This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during US recessions since the 1870s. Using a dynamic measure of correlations, results depend on the globalization period under consideration. During the 2007-2009 recession, business cycles co-movements increased to unprecedented levels. (author's abstract)
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Lahman, John William. "The yield curve’s predictive power on U.S. recessions: a survey of literature." Kansas State University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/13760.
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Master of ArtsDepartment of Economics
Lloyd B. Thomas
A negative-sloped Treasury curve is often cited in financial news articles and by Federal Reserve economists as a predictor of recessions. This report reviews previously published research examining the reliability of yield curves predicting recessions. Findings show that the yield curve inverts two or more quarters before recessions, with short-term interest rates rising above long-term interest rates. Probit regression has proven a reliable method for generating estimated probabilities of future recessions that, in turn, are useful for both monetary policy and asset allocation decision-making.
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Lee, Kwok-wai. "The home ownership aspiration after the 1997 economic downturn in Hong Kong a study on the middle class aspiration and response /." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2003. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B43895517.
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos. "Business Cycle Synchronization During US Recessions Since the Beginning of the 1870's." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3522/1/wp140.pdf.
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This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during
US recessions since the 1870's. Using a dynamic measure of business cycle synchronization,
results depend on the globalisation period under consideration. On average, US recessions
have significantly positive effects on business cycle co-movements only in the period following
the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, while strongly decoupling effects among the G7 economies are documented during recessions that occurred under
the classical Gold Standard. During the 2007-2009 recession, business cycles co-movements
increased to unprecedented levels. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Gallagher, Eamon. "All Recessions Are Not Equal: The Effect of Sectoral Shifts on Unemployment Using Regional Data." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2261.
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This thesis investigates the effect that variation in employment between industries has had on the depth of recession faced by Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States. This analysis is limited to the previous two national recessions. I use regression analysis to find that increases in variation in employment has a significant effect on the maximum increase in unemployment rate in MSAs after controlling for relevant MSA characteristics. In this framework I also find that increases in education could mitigate the negative effects of this variation. I include several other measures of depth of recession including the fall in economic conditions and length for real GDP to recover to its pre-recession levels. I find that the measure of variation is significant in explaining falls in the economic conditions, but not so in explaining the length it takes for each MSA to recover its real GDP.
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Katayama, Munechika. "Dynamic analysis in productivity, oil shock, and recession." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2008. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3315857.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2008.Title from first page of PDF file (viewed September 3, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 98-104).
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Khomo, Melvin Muzi. "The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?" Thesis, Rhodes University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722.
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This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
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Martin, Elizabeth C. "Regulating the Risk of Debt: Exemption Laws and Economic Insecurity Across US States." The Ohio State University, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1509026110312995.
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von, Seth Carl Johan. "Safeguarding Free Trade in Recessions : - A Game-Theoretic Interpretation of the Multilateral Policy Response to the 2008 Crisis." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-144966.
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I propose a simple approach to trade cooperation in economic shocks. A two-country, two-good trade model provides a stage setting. In a dynamic model, international demand for traded goods is allowed to be subject to sudden shocks. Numerical simulations predict that negative, sustained demand shocks may spark trade wars. Negative demand shocks that are short relative to the period it takes for governments to detect violations render instead incentives in free trade agreements more robust. I find that the multilateral policy response to the 2008 crisis - to temporarily enhance multilateral information mechanisms - may have worked to strengthen this effect.I den här uppsatsen analyseras incitament i handelsavtal under ekonomiska chocker utifrån grundläggande spelteori. Jag finner att långa lågkonjunkturer påverkar incitamenten på ett sätt som kan få parterna att frångå avtalet och starta ett tullkrig. Korta lågkonjunkturer stärker i stället incitamenten i avtalet. Jag argumenterar för att brytpunkten mellan en tullkrigsutlösande lågkonjunktur och en incitamentstärkande lågkonjunktur kan regleras genom att tillfälligt stärka informationsmekanismerna kring avtalet och att de multilaterala åtgärderna i krisens spår kan ha haft den effekten.
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Morris, Juanita Michelle Reed Hines Edward R. "Trends and relationships in student enrollment, state support, economic recessions, and student aid in higher education 1976-2003 /." Normal, Ill. : Illinois State University, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?index=0&did=1390280881&SrchMode=1&sid=2&Fmt=2&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1203094108&clientId=43838.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Illinois State University, 2007.Title from title page screen, viewed on February 15, 2008. Dissertation Committee: Edward R. Hines (chair), Patricia H. Klass, Ross A. Hodel, W. Paul Vogt. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 196-203) and abstract. Also available in print.
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Bradford, Mackenzie. "To Rely or Not to Rely? A Study of how Analyst Earnings Forecast Error Changes Leading up to Recessions." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2090.
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There are a large number of investors and companies reliant upon analyst earnings forecasts. Missing analyst forecasts can have a massive impact on share price and investors often look to these values to make decisions regarding future investment decisions. However, there has been a great deal of speculation about these forecasts and especially the error associated with them. With the threat of an impending recession, it is important to know the reliability of forecasts during times leading up to recessions. More specifically, this study aims to see how the level of error associated with analyst earnings forecasts change leading up to recessions and whether or not they should be relied upon as heavily during these times.
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Hiatt, Amanda M. "The Contributions of Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus Policies to the Economic Recovery Process of Recessions in the United States." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2013. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/scripps_theses/231.
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ABSTRACT
In this thesis, I evaluate how fiscal and monetary stimulus policies contribute to the economic recovery process of recessions in the United States. Using a case study approach, I will study ten major recessions over the 20th century and early 21st century to answer this question. I will study the different fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the following recessions: the Great Depression; the Recession of 1937, the Recession of 1945, the Recession of 1953, the 1973-75 Recession, the 1980 Recession, the Early 1980s Recession, the Early 1990s Recession, the Early 2000s Recession, and the Late-2000s Recession. The literature suggests a wide range of conflicting viewpoints as to the most effective stimulus policies for economic recovery. I conclude that while both monetary and fiscal stimulus policies have been effective in contributing to GDP growth and reductions in unemployment, it is evident that each recession requires a unique policy response. In many cases, I find value in implementing both monetary and fiscal policy, jointly, as they complement one another. I also find that, generally, monetary policy is most effective in contributing to the economic recovery process of recessions through open market operations that reduce the interest rate and that fiscal policy is most effective in contributing to the economic recovery process of recessions through government spending. My systematic exploration of these policies and the recession case studies, provide valuable information of the effects of these policies and provide insight into the appropriate use of stimulus policies in the current economy and for future recessions and recoveries.
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Kjellman, Anders. "Essays on performance and financing decisions during the 1990s recession in Finland." Åbo : Åbo Akademi University Press, 1997. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/37968429.html.
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Oloyede, Olajide. "Coping under recession : workers in a Nigerian factory /." Stockholm : Almqvist och Wiksell, 1991. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb35513952k.
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Lee, Kwok-wai, and 李國偉. "The home ownership aspiration after the 1997 economic downturn in HongKong: a study on the middle class aspirationand response." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2003. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B43895517.
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Su, Lishan. "Impacts of mass media coverage of the economy during normal times and recessions on the Index of Consumer Confidence using time series analysis and Granger causal analysis /." [Ames, Iowa : Iowa State University], 2008.
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Killian, Tiffany Noel. "Teaching Points in Comparing the Great Depression to the 2008-2009 Recession in the United States." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2010. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc28442/.
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For an introductory macroeconomics course, the discussion of historical relevance helps foster important learning connections. By comparing the Great Depression to the 2008-2009 recession, a macroeconomics instructor can provide students with connections to history. This paper discusses the major causes of each recession, major fiscal policy and monetary policy decisions of both recessions, and the respective relevance in teaching the relationship of each policy to gross domestic product. The teaching points addressed in this paper are directed towards an introductory college-level macroeconomics course, incorporating a variety of theories from historical and economic writers and data from government and central bank sources. A lesson plan is included in an appendix to assist the instructor in implementing the material.
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Restrepo, Valeria. "The impact of oil price surges on economic growth." Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2011. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/500.
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The objective of this research concerns identifying whether or not there is a relationship between oil price increases in a given quarter and the likelihood of a recession in the subsequent quarter. The data used is gathered from the St. Louis Fed's Fred II, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Energy Information Administration to generate modified variables. These variables are tested using a qualitative dependent variable, recession, in a binary choice model. The findings validated the assumption that oil prices do have a correlation with recessions, and that the relationship is a direct one. Based on the model, an increase in the price of oil will positively affect the likelihood of a "recession" outcome versus the alternative, "no recession". It is anticipated that the results will inspire future research into the causes and effects of oil price surges, as well as the determinants of economic contractions in the future based on policy decisions and economic decision-making practices in the present.B.A.
Bachelors
Business Administration
Economics
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Palludeto, Alex Wilhans Antonio 1986. "Crise e capitalismo contemporâneo : uma revisão das interpretações marxistas da grande recessão (2007-2009)." [s.n.], 2012. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/285914.
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Orientador: Nelson Prado Alves PintoDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo é o de revisar as principais interpretações de inspiração marxista da Grande Recessão (2007-2009) e identificar as linhas centrais do debate que se trava em torno das suas origens e características fundamentais. Não tive, naturalmente, a pretensão de realizar um exame exaustivo da crescente literatura sobre o tema. Optei, ao invés disso, por selecionar aqueles estudos que me pareceram representativos das correntes teóricas mais importantes no interior do marxismo contemporâneo e, a partir disso, avaliar as suas respectivas posições no que diz respeito à crise recente. A fim de cumprir o objetivo proposto, o capítulo primeiro estabelece os principais conceitos e a metodologia de trabalho empregados ao longo deste estudo. Apresenta-se uma definição de crise, a distinção entre causa última e causa imediata e, por fim, o corte adotado para a organização da literatura. Foi possível demonstrar, desse modo, a existência de duas grandes abordagens no universo teórico marxista no que se refere aos determinantes últimos da crise recente: A - de um lado, aqueles que atribuem a turbulência à dinâmica de uma fase particular do capitalismo, à forma política/econômica/institucional específica assumida pelo sistema capitalista ao longo das últimas décadas, em suma, ao que se convencionou denominar, em diversos trabalhos, neoliberalismo; B - de outro, aqueles que veem a crise recente como uma manifestação própria da dinâmica capitalista em geral - e não do modo particular que esta supostamente apresenta. No primeiro grupo, Dúmenil, Lévy, Saad-Filho e Kotz, cujos trabalhos foram examinados no capítulo segundo, estão entre seus principais expoentes. Conforme se pôde observar, o argumento daqueles que defendem essa perspectiva centra-se, principalmente, na relação de poder entre as classes que compõem o capitalismo, sobretudo a capitalista e a trabalhadora, e no reflexo da configuração institucional formada a partir desta sobre a economia, particularmente sobre o comportamento do setor financeiro e a distribuição de renda. Por outro lado, segundo as análises empreendidas pelos integrantes do segundo grupo, do qual os adeptos da chamada Interpretação do Sistema Único Temporal da teoria do valor de Marx são os principais representantes, a argumentação baseia-se, sobretudo, no movimento traçado pela taxa de lucro e a acumulação de capital. Segundo demonstra o capítulo terceiro, o declínio da taxa de lucro em virtude da elevação da composição orgânica do capital é a hipótese básica para a explicação da Grande Recessão nessa abordagem
Abstract: The aim of this study is to review the main marxist interpretations of the Great Recession (2007-2009) and identify the main lines of the debate on its origins and fundamental characteristics. I did not intend to do a thorough examination of the growing literature on the subject. I opted, instead, to select those studies that seemed representative of the most important theoretical approaches in the contemporary marxism and then evaluate their respective positions with regard to the recent crisis. In order to achieve the proposed objective, the first chapter sets out the key concepts and methodology used throughout this study. It presents a definition of crisis, the distinction between the ultimate and immediate cause and, finally, the approach adopted to organize the literature. It was possible to demonstrate thereby the presence of two major approaches in the theoretical marxist universe with regard to determining the recent crisis: A - on the one hand, those who attribute the turbulence to the dynamics of a particular phase of capitalism, the specific political/economic/institutional form assumed by the capitalist system over the past decades; in short, to what may be called neoliberalism; B - on the other, those who see the recent crisis as a manifestation of general capitalist dynamics itself - and not the particular form that supposedly assume. In the first group, Dumenil, Levy, Saad-Filho and Kotz, whose works are examined in chapter II, are among its main exponents. As seen above, the argument of those who advocate this perspective focuses mainly on the power relationship between classes that constitute capitalism, especially the capitalist and worker, and the reflection of the institutional setting from that upon the economy, particularly on the behavior of the financial sector and income distribution. By contrast, according to the analyzes undertaken by members of the second group, which the supporters of the so-called Temporal Single System Interpretation of Marx's value theory are the main representatives, the argument is based mainly on the movement of the rate of profit and capital accumulation. As the third chapter demonstrates, the declining rate of profit because of the increasing organic composition of capital is the basic hypothesis to explain the Great Recession in this approach
Mestrado
Ciências Economicas
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas
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Blokhina, Svetlana. "Risposta idrologica di recessione e morfologia della rete di drenaggio." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3423865.
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The present study becomes part of the mathematical modeling of hydrological processes at the catchment scale. The main objective of this work is to examine the relationship between the hydrological response of a basin during the recession and its geomorphological characteristics.
The recession curves represent the power law relationship between the discharge and the streamflow decline rate -dQ/dt = kQ^b. Recently it has been developed the geomorphological theory of recession hydrological response. The basic idea of this theory is that che power law relationship -dQ/dt = kQ^b originates from the power law relationship between the number of the channel heads of active drainage network (ADN) N(t) and its total length G(t) at time t. This study contributes to the validation of the geomorphological recession theory.
The thesis work actually started from the examination of the catchment morphological properties obtained wid GIS tools, with the purpose to analyze the recessions of some mountain basins (Vermigliana, Fersina creeks). This analysis was carried out following the approach proposed by[Brutsaert and Nieber, 1977]. For one of test cases the spatial interpolation of precipitations was performed in order to examine eventual dependencies of the recession curve parameters on the heterogeneous spatial distribution of precipitations.
Then, several numerical experiments were carried out in order to understand the dynamics of active drainage networks during the recession phase and to evaluate experimentally the factors of the links between "traditional" and "geomorphological" recession curves and relative parameters. The tool adopted in this work is the distributed hydrological model CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), which couples the subsurface flow in porous media with the surface flow.
This model was applied to both a synthetic catchment (V-catchment) and some natural basins.
The thesis work had positive feedback on some of the assumptions relative to recession curves.
Also, the dependence of the recession curve parameters on the heterogeneity of the spatial rainfall distribution was investigated. The modeling of dynamic active drainage network with CATHY showed that the relationship between the flow rate and the ADN length is a power law with exponents less than one. The flow rate per unit length is variable in time, with a tendency to the stabilization for a long recession times. This finding is significant as the recent theory implies the constant flow rate per unit length. The simulated discharge drained into ADN is closed to the simulated discharge at the basin outlet. Therefore, it allows as to deduce that the method of analysis adopted in the present work is suitable tool for understanding of the complexity of the processes that determine the recession hydrologic response at the catchment scale. The obtained results will allow the improvements in the analysis of the relationships between geomorphological catchment properties and recession response processes.Il presente lavoro si inserisce nell'ambito della modellazione matematica dei processi idrologici a scala di bacino. L'obiettivo principale della ricerca svolta è lo studio delle relazioni tra la risposta idrologica di un bacino nella fase di recessione e le sue caratteristiche geomorfologiche. Le curve di recessione rappresentano la relazione tra la portata e la sua diminuzione nel corso del tempo, espressa nei termini della legge di potenza -dQ/dt = kQ^b. Recentemente si sta sviluppando la teoria geomorfologica della risposta idrologica di recessione. L'idea di fondo di tale teoria consiste nel fatto che la relazione -dQ/dt = kQ^b abbia origine dalla legge di potenza, la quale lega il numero delle origini dei canali attivi della rete di drenaggio N(t) e la sua lunghezza totale G(t) al tempo t. Il presente lavoro contribuisce alla validazione della teoria geomorfologica di recessione. Nella prima fase del lavoro sono state studiate le proprietà morfologiche del bacino ottenute con gli strumenti GIS al fine dell'analisi delle recessioni di alcuni bacini montani (torrenti Vermigliana, Fersina) seguendo l'approcio proposto da [Brutsaert and Nieber, 1977]. In uno dei casi è stata effettuata l'interpolazione spaziale delle precipitazioni con lo scopo di vagliare possibili dipendenze dei parametri di recessione dalla distribuzione spaziale eterogenea delle piogge. Nella seconda fase della ricerca sono state eseguite le sperimentazioni numeriche al fine di studiare la dinamica delle reti di drenaggio durante la fase di recessione e di valutare in modo sperimentale i fattori della relazione tra le curve di recessione "tradizionali" e quelle "geomorfologiche" e i parametri relativi. Lo strumento adottato nella ricerca è il modello idrologico distribuito accoppiato degli afflussi-deflussi CATchment HYdrology (CATHY). Il modello è stato applicato sia ad un bacino sintetico (V-catchment), sia ai bacini reali. Dallo studio effettuato si è avuto riscontro positivo su alcune delle ipotesi recenti relative alle recessioni. E' stata inoltre sperimentata la dipendenza dei parametri della curva di recessione dall'eterogeneità della distribuzione spaziale delle piogge. In merito alle modellazioni della rete dinamica realizzate con CATHY è emerso che la relazione tra la portata e la lunghezza della rete può essere espressa attraverso la legge di potenza con esponenti inferiori ad uno. La portata per unità di lunghezza è variabile nel tempo con tendenza alla stabilizzazione per i tempi lunghi. Tale constatazione è significativa, in quanto recenti teorie postulano la costanza della portata per unità di lunghezza. Le portate drenate nella rete dinamica si avvicinano alla portata totale simulata nella sezione di chiusura del bacino. Pertanto si ritiene che il metodo di analisi adottato sia lo strumento più adatto allo studio della complessità dei processi che determinano la risposta idrologica nella fase di recessione a scala di bacino. Lo studio effettuato potrà consentire gli approfondimenti necessari nell’analisi delle relazioni tra le proprietà geomorfologiche del bacino ed i processi di recessione.
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Cumming, Mitchel Spider. "Recessional Aesthetics." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20641.
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With this paper, I consider my operation of independent, artist run institutions (ARIs) as a constitutive element of my broader artistic practice, resisting a Kantian model of ‘disinterested’ aesthetics that would seek to keep the two ontologically distinct. Through a reading of Jacques Derrida’s deconstructionist text on Kant’s parergon, I identify that the various labours required to maintain spaces of exhibition have a peripheral impact on a viewer’s experience within this space, and can thus be used by the artist to (re)shape the terms of aesthetic encounter. I examine a range of critical approaches that have engaged art’s backstage labour as a site of practice, beginning with the Marxist Feminist performances of Mierle Laderman Ukeles. Cautious of a model that would simply valorise this labour by converting it into recognisable visual forms, I then explore the subtler collaborative practice of Christopher D’Arcangelo and Peter Nadin, as well as the recent work of Jessie Bullivant. In these latter forms, I locate the potential of an embedded approach to art labour that works from within its functional position: a political gesture that seeks to regain agency over the ontological context in which one’s work appears. Building on these precedents, I then propose my own operation of ARIs as a durational form of such artistic self-determination: a ‘Recessional Aesthetics’ that labours invisibly in art’s backstage to produce an appropriate context for its subsequent appearance. To close the paper, I discuss an exhibition platform developed specifically for the MFA, which operated from my studio on campus. This experimental ARI format, informed by Marcel Duchamp’s works in glass, utilised the window as a conceptual and optical tool for display, in an attempt to allow my necessarily peripheral labour of aesthetic hosting to be glimpsed in recess.
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Williamson, Stefanie. "Recession, precariousness and inequality : youth employment trajectories before and after the 2008-2009 recession." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2018. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52827/.
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The extent of youth unemployment in the UK in the years following the 2008 economic crisis, as well as the backdrop of longer-term concern regarding the rise of precarious work (Beck 2000, Standing 2011) prompted discussions of a 'lost generation' of young people set to feel the economic scars from embarking on their careers at a time of economic turmoil. The 2008-2009 recession was also (dubiously) labelled a 'mancession' and the first 'middle class recession'. Despite this, comparatively few sociology studies have adopted a quantitative approach to compare the class and gender dimensions of inequality in young people's employment trajectories prior to and following the 2008-2009 recession. This research makes an original contribution to the field by using longitudinal sequence analysis methods to contrast the employment trajectories of two cohorts of 16 to 24 year olds in the UK: a pre-recession and a recession cohort. In doing so, it establishes the extent to which the patterns of class and gender inequality amongst young people, not only in unemployment, but also in the movement in and out of 'precarious work', differed prior to and following the 2008-2009 recession. It finds that precarious employment was not as widespread as 'end of work' theorists suggested but that the recession brought an increased minority of young people who experienced employment difficulty. Furthermore, it argues that the recession did not advantage or disadvantage class or gender groups in a uniform way. Rather, changing trends in the recession highlighted a number of complex and shifting patterns of inequality amongst young people of different genders and from differing class backgrounds.
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Gyanwali, Milan. "SME growth in a recession." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/42331.
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This study examines how a small and medium enterprise (SME) achieved growth in the recession of 2008-09. During the recessionary period, businesses in the UK faced a challenging environment with critical financial shortages and credit squeeze. SMEs, being generally more susceptible in the times of recession, were particularly badly affected. Undeterred by such a difficult economic condition, the case study firm was able to achieve substantial growth in the recession. Although there are a significant number of studies on the growth dynamics of SMEs, they either concentrate on the natural growth in the normal economic situation, study large businesses or use large-scale data to examine SME performance in a recession. Surprisingly, little exploratory studies focused on the SME growth in a recession are found. This research addresses such gap in the literature through an in-depth study of a successful business in a recession. To do so, this study used plural methods to examine the business growth. It employed the participant action research as the main approach, case study as a design and mixed methods as a strategy to collect and analyse the data. It used both quantitative and qualitative data from primary and secondary sources to analyse the business performance and identify the growth-making factors. This study found that contextual strategies help SMEs to sustain and grow in a financially turbulent period. The case study firm implemented three management strategies – learning in the organisation, restructuring the organisation and customer-focus – to achieve business performance in the recession of 2008-09. The firm implemented these strategies and associated organisation-works by contextualising and making them ‘fit for the organisation’. All these strategies and organisation-works have a combined impact on the business performance. The outcome of this research, thus, suggests that SMEs may achieve business performance by implementing contextual strategies and associated organisation-works in a systematic way.
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Mumtaz, Haroon. "The recession in east Asia." Thesis, Birkbeck (University of London), 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.271689.
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Summers, Carol Elizabeth 1959. "Assessing constraints to recession farming." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/276701.
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The purpose of this study was to develop and field test an approach based upon soft systems methodology for assessing constraints and anxieties faced by farmers utilizing recession farming. The approach in this study was based on soft systems methodology with the intent of constructing root-definitions for recession farming systems. The field testing of the approach utilized three recession farming systems in northeast Thailand. The root-definitions obtained using this approach, characterized two of the recession farming systems as capitalistic using an intensive, high input mode of production with limited land and labor. The third system was characterize as subsistent agriculture with few inputs. It was concluded that the approach developed in this study accurately identified constraints and differences between recession farming systems. The rich picture developed from the farmer's information was adequate to construct the root-definitions. It is recommended that this approach be tested in another region, using indigenous personnel trained to conduct group interviews.
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Dexheimer, Felipe Rheinfranck. "Essays on the great recession." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18722.
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The objective of this paper is to seek insights into the Great Recession, which started after the Financial Shock of 2008 and still casts a shadow on the growth of Developed Economies. Common features such as near zero interest rates, disappointing growth and low inflation - with a constant fear of deflation - have been observed in most of these countries in the last few years. The Secular Stagnation Hypothesis argues that the causes are a depressed demand, both for investments and finished products and services, and that to avoid a deflation trap governments should step in, helping economies reach their potential again. The Credit Supercycle Hypothesis puts the deleveraging cycle on focus: the large credit expansion that happened prior to the shock must be dealt with, through inflation, growth, restructuring or a combination of those, before economic agents go back to their normal behavior. The analysis of their main differences leads to the investigation of the credit cycle and its impact on productivity growth. Two approaches are used, with the time frame ranging from 1995 to 2014: a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis focused on twenty developed countries and a Real Business Cycle analysis of the American Economy, both replicated from previous studies with similar focus, but different context. The results show the importance of credit formation to the growth of productivity, both directly and through fixed capital investment, and also that the low productivity growth on recent years may be not a symptom of slow technological improvement, but instead caused by the lack of credit access, notwithstanding the low interest rates and credit spreads. Policy makers overlooking this evidence might be surprised by an unforeseen rise in productivity growth after the financial system returns to a more normal behavior.
O objetivo deste artigo é buscar informações sobre a Grande Recessão, que começou após o Choque Financeiro de 2008 e ainda gera uma sombra sobre o crescimento das Economias Desenvolvidas. Características comuns, como taxas de juros próximas de zero, decepções de crescimento e baixa inflação - com um medo constante da deflação - foram observados na maioria desses países nos últimos anos. A Hipótese da Estagnação Secular argumenta que as causas é uma demanda deprimida, tanto para investimentos quanto para produtos e serviços finais, e para evitar uma armadilha de deflação, os governos devem intervir, ajudando as economias a alcançar seu potencial novamente. A Hipótese do Superciclo de Crédito coloca o processo de desalavancagem em foco: a grande expansão de crédito que aconteceu antes do choque deve ser tratada, por meio da inflação, crescimento, reestruturação ou uma combinação desses, antes que os agentes econômicos voltem ao seu comportamento normal. A análise das principais diferenças dessas hipóteses leva à investigação acerca do ciclo do crédito e seu impacto no crescimento da produtividade. São utilizadas duas abordagens, com o intervalo de tempo entre 1995 e 2014: um modelo Vetorial Autoregressivo (VAR) focado em vinte países desenvolvidos e uma análise de Ciclo Real de Negócios (Real Business Cycle) da economia americana, ambas replicadas de estudos anteriores que tinham foco semelhante, mas contexto diferente. Os resultados mostram a importância da formação de crédito para o crescimento da produtividade, tanto diretamente como através do investimento em capital fixo, e também que o baixo crescimento da produtividade nos últimos anos pode não ser um sintoma de melhoria tecnológica lenta, mas sim causado pela falta de acesso a crédito, não obstante as baixas taxas de juros e spreads de crédito. Ao negligenciar essas evidências formadores de políticas econômicas podem se surpreender com um aumento imprevisto do crescimento da produtividade após o sistema financeiro retornar a um comportamento mais normal.
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Zia, Mujtaba. "Bank Capital, Efficient Market Hypothesis, and Bank Borrowing During the Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2014. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc699938/.
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During the Great Recession of 2007 and 2008, liquidity and credit dried up, threatening the stability of financial institutions, particularly the banking firms. Traditional source of funds from the last resort, the Discount Window of the Federal Reserve System, failed to remedy the liquidity problem. To assuage the liquidity and credit problem, the Federal Reserve System established several emergency lending facilities and provided unprecedented amount of loans to the banking industry. Using a dataset published by Bloomberg LLP in the aftermaths of the financial crisis, which contains daily loan balances from the Fed, I conduct an event study to test whether financial markets are efficient in reflecting all public, anticipated and classified information in security prices. The most important contribution of this dissertation to the finance discipline and literature is the investigation and analysis of the Fed’s unprecedented loans to the banking industry during the Great Recession and the market reaction to it. The second major contribution of this study is the empirical test of strong form efficient market hypothesis, which has not been feasible due to legal data challenges. This dissertation has other contributions to the finance discipline and banking research. First, I develop an algorithm for measuring the amount of borrowing by banks. Second, I introduce a new “loan balance” ratio to traditional list of bank financial ratios. Third, I use event study methodologies to allow for cross-correlation, heteroscedasticity and event induced-variance change in studying US banks’ performance during the Great Recession.
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Saúde, Arthur Moreira. "Metodologia de previsão de recessões: um estudo econométrico com aplicações de modelos de resposta binária." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18221.
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This paper aims to create an econometric model capable of anticipating recessions in the United States economy, one year in advance, using not only monetary market variables that are already used by economists, but also capital market variables. Using a data span from 1959 to 2016, it was observed that the yield spread continues to be an explanatory variable with excellent predictive power over recessions. Evidence has also emerged of new variables that have very high statistical significance, and which offer valuable contributions to the regressions. Out-of-sample tests have been conducted which suggest that past recessions would have been predicted with substantially higher accuracy if the proposed Probit model had been used instead of the most widespread model in the economic literature. This accuracy is evident not only in the predictive quality, but also in the reduction of the number of false positives and false negatives in the regression, and in the robustness of the out-of-sample tests.
Este trabalho visa desenvolver um modelo econométrico capaz de antecipar, com um ano de antecedência, recessões na economia dos Estados Unidos, utilizando não só variáveis dos mercados monetários, que já são indicadores antecedentes bastante utilizados por economistas, mas também dos mercados de capitais. Utilizando-se dados de 1959 a 2016, pode-se observar que o spread de juros de longo e curto prazo continua sendo uma variável explicativa com excelente poder preditivo sobre recessões. Também surgiram evidências de novas variáveis que possuem altíssimas significâncias estatísticas, e que oferecem valiosas contribuições para as regressões. Foram conduzidos testes fora da amostra que sugerem que as recessões passadas teriam sido previstas com acurácia substancialmente superior, caso o modelo Probit proposto tivesse sido utilizado no lugar do modelo mais difundido na literatura econômica. Essa acurácia é evidente não só na qualidade preditiva, mas também na redução do número de falsos positivos e falsos negativos da regressão, e na robustez dos testes fora da amostra.
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Johansson, Katarina, and Erik Olsson. "Is recession fuel for the staffing industry? : Corporate views on staffing in times of recession." Thesis, Umeå University, Umeå School of Business, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-36089.
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At the time of writing, the business world is currently recovering from a recession that struck globally in the late 2008. The financial crisis brought many consequences, not least in the labor market. In meantime, media is reporting of the increasing trends of companies outsourcing their employment needs, by using staffing companies. Could it be that there is a correlation between the recession and the companies’ choices to do so?
By revising literature on the topic we have found that the companies need for flexibility seem to be their main reason for using staffing companies. We have also come to review the first reports on the current increase of staffing company use in the US claimed to be caused by the current recession. Regarding the recession, we have come to find that it does have a structural impact on the labor market according to literature. An impact, that many claims is not temporary, but is here to stay.
We have departed from retroduction with a touch of abduction when investigating our research problem. In practice, we have conducted a study based on surveys where we have asked 37 people in managerial positions at the top 100 largest employers in Sweden about their views on the recession and their attitudes towards the staffing industry. In addition, we have conducted an interview with a manager from a staffing company in Sweden to get another view on the use of staffing companies.
The findings of this study include; even though several references in this paper forecast rapid growth during times of expansion for the staffing companies, this is not reflected within the responses in our sample. The companies perceive the situation of temporary staff as being better than what some theory suggests. There is reason to suggest that large companies that use staffing companies are moving towards a permanent need of temporary labor, and the respondent of such companies generally perceive staffing companies as a good option for mitigating labor-associated risks.
It is difficult to draw definite conclusions based on our findings. We have opted to give the reader some insight as to how the companies perceive the staffing industry, and how a manager of a staffing company perceives its current state. We would like to encourage further research to use the questions and suggestions raised in our paper to conduct tests in the area of temporary staffing from a corporate perspective to nourish the debate in the society with a scientific point of view.
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Kariotaki, Sophia. "Under the shadow of recession : a narrative exploration of young Greek graduates' experience of recession." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/under-the-shadow-of-recessiona-narrative-exploration-of-young-greek-graduates-experience-of-recession(046707f9-e56b-4549-903f-148ed67c1982).html.
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Since the recession has hit Greece, individuals have not only experienced financial loss but they have seen their whole life overhauled by the crisis. The purpose of this study is to explore how young Greeks who have recently graduated, or who are about to graduate, perceive their lives and futures at this time of severe economic crisis. More particularly, I tried to focus on their feelings (such as worries and hopes) about how the recession has impacted their lives and their feelings regarding their futures. Research has shown that during periods of recession, young individuals are affected the most and for that reason I chose this population as the target group of my research. Coming from the perspective of developmental and life-span theories that in order to achieve healthy psychological development, individuals need to go through particular tasks during their life span; I was particularly interested to see how the recession has psychologically affected young individuals who, even though they have recently ended two of the main markers that identify their transition to adulthood (education and gaining a professional qualification) due to the recession they were unable to move to the stages which are employment and financial in-dependence. I wanted to listen to these individuals’ stories and see how they perceive their lives and futures and what their feelings are during the period of recession. In a narrative framework, following an unstructured interview and asking the participants one main question, ‘What are your thoughts and feelings about your life and your future during the period of recession?’, the participants were allowed to express their stories and what they considered as important, creating in that way unique narratives that represented their own processes. The main themes that were identified from the stories are: ‘Their career choice and their hopes for employment prospects’, ‘Broken dreams and collecting the pieces’, ‘Impact of recession on the individual’, ‘Impact of recession on other aspects of their life’ and ‘Participants’ feelings about their future’. Presenting and exploring the participants’ stories I attempted to gain a better understanding and awareness of how the recession has impacted them psychologically, investigating their psychological needs finding ways to support them. The realisation of the significant losses that were described by the participants drove the researcher to turn to bereavement counselling theory trying to identify ways to psychologically support individuals who experience similar losses and clinical interventions were suggested.
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Brittingham, Jane M. "Great Recession Dying, Okun's Law Resurrected." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2012. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/456.
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Zwick, Eric Meinberg. "Finance Implications of the Great Recession." Thesis, Harvard University, 2014. http://dissertations.umi.com/gsas.harvard:11470.
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Macroeconomic events in the United States during the last ten years—the housing bubble, the financial crisis and the subsequent, deep recession—brought several puzzles to the attention of economists and policymakers. Why were there such large price booms and busts in places like Las Vegas and Phoenix, where land was readily available and construction markets were very active? Why are economies so slow to recover from recessions that coincide with
financial crises? Can policymakers use fiscal stimulus to increase output and accelerate economic recovery after a recession?
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Whittington, R. C. "Corporate strategies in recession and recovery." Thesis, University of Manchester, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.376189.
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Bundick, Brent. "Monetary Policy and the Great Recession." Thesis, Boston College, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/3790.
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Thesis advisor: Susanto BasuThe Great Recession is arguably the most important macroeconomic event of the last three decades. Prior to the collapse of national output during 2008 and 2009, the United States experienced a sustained period of good economic outcomes with only two mild and short recessions. In addition to the severity of the recession, several characteristics of this recession signify it as as a unique event in the recent economic history of the United States. Some of these unique features include the following: Large Increase in Uncertainty About the Future: The Great Recession and its subsequent slow recovery have been marked by a large increase in uncertainty about the future. Uncertainty, as measured by the VIX index of implied stock market volatility, peaked at the end of 2008 and has remained volatile over the past few years. Many economists and the financial press believe the large increase in uncertainty may have played a role in the Great Recession and subsequent slow recovery. For example, Kocherlakota (2010) states, ``I've been emphasizing uncertainties in the labor market. More generally, I believe that overall uncertainty is a large drag on the economic recovery.'' In addition, Nobel laureate economist Peter Diamond argues, ``What's critical right now is not the functioning of the labor market, but the limits on the demand for labor coming from the great caution on the side of both consumers and firms because of the great uncertainty of what's going to happen next.'' Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve plays a key role in offsetting the negative impact of fluctuations in the economy. During normal times, the central bank typically lowers nominal short-term interest rates in response to declines in inflation and output. Since the end of 2008, however, the Federal Reserve has been unable to lower its nominal policy rate due to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Prior to the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve had not encountered the zero lower bound in the modern post-war period. The zero lower bound represents a significant constraint monetary policy's ability to fully stabilize the economy. Unprecedented Use of Forward Guidance: Even though the Federal Reserve remains constrained by the zero lower bound, the monetary authority can still affect the economy through expectations about future nominal policy rates. By providing agents in the economy with forward guidance on the future path of policy rates, monetary policy can stimulate the economy even when current policy rates remain constrained. Throughout the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery, the Federal Reserve provided the economy with explicit statements about the future path of monetary policy. In particular, the central bank has discussed the timing and macroeconomic conditions necessary to begin raising its nominal policy rate. Using this policy tool, the Federal Reserve continues to respond to the state of the economy at the zero lower bound. Large Fiscal Expansion: During the Great Recession, the United States engaged in a very large program of government spending and tax reductions. The massive fiscal expansion was designed to raise national income and help mitigate the severe economic contraction. A common justification for the fiscal expansion is the reduced capacity of the monetary authority to stimulate the economy at the zero lower bound. Many economists argue that the benefits of increasing government spending are significantly higher when the monetary authority is constrained by the zero lower bound. The goal of this dissertation is to better understand how these various elements contributed to the macroeconomic outcomes during and after the Great Recession. In addition to understanding each of the elements above in isolation, a key component of this analysis focuses on the interaction between the above elements. A key unifying theme between all of the elements is the role in monetary policy. In modern models of the macroeconomy, the monetary authority is crucial in determining how a particular economic mechanism affects the macroeconomy. In the first and second chapters, I show that monetary policy plays a key role in offsetting the negative effects of increased uncertainty about the future. My third chapter highlights how assumptions about monetary policy can change the impact of various shocks and policy interventions. For example, suppose the fiscal authority wants to increase national output by increasing government spending. A key calculation in this situation is the fiscal multiplier, which is dollar increase in national income for each dollar of government spending. I show that fiscal multipliers are dramatically affected by the assumptions about monetary policy even if the monetary authority is constrained by the zero lower bound. The unique nature of the elements discussed above makes analyzing their contribution difficult using standard macroeconomic tools. The most popular method for analyzing dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium models of the macroeconomy relies on linearizing the model around its deterministic steady state and examining the local dynamics around that approximation. However, the nature of the unique elements above make it impossible to fully capture dynamics using local linearization methods. For example, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates often occurs far from the deterministic steady state of the model. Therefore, linearization around the steady state cannot capture the dynamics associated with the zero lower bound. The overall goal of this dissertation is to use and develop tools in computational macroeconomics to help better understand the Great Recession. Each of the chapters outlined below examine at least one of the topics listed above and its impact in explaining the macroeconomics of the Great Recession. In particular, the essays highlight the role of the monetary authority in generating the observed macroeconomic outcomes over the past several years. Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its components? In joint work with Susanto Basu, my first chapter examines the role of uncertainty shocks in a one-sector, representative-agent, dynamic, stochastic general-equilibrium model. When prices are flexible, uncertainty shocks are not capable of producing business-cycle comovements among key macroeconomic variables. With countercyclical markups through sticky prices, however, uncertainty shocks can generate fluctuations that are consistent with business cycles. Monetary policy usually plays a key role in offsetting the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. If the central bank is constrained by the zero lower bound, then monetary policy can no longer perform its usual stabilizing function and higher uncertainty has even more negative effects on the economy. We calibrate the size of uncertainty shocks using fluctuations in the VIX and find that increased uncertainty about the future may indeed have played a significant role in worsening the Great Recession, which is consistent with statements by policymakers, economists, and the financial press. In sole-authored work, the second chapter continues to explore the interactions between the zero lower bound and increased uncertainty about the future. From a positive perspective, the essay further shows why increased uncertainty about the future can reduce a central bank's ability to stabilize the economy. The inability to offset contractionary shocks at the zero lower bound endogenously generates downside risk for the economy. This increase in risk induces precautionary saving by households, which causes larger contractions in output and inflation and prolongs the zero lower bound episode. The essay also examines the normative implications of uncertainty and shows how monetary policy can attenuate the negative effects of higher uncertainty. When the economy faces significant uncertainty, optimal monetary policy implies further lowering real rates by committing to a higher price-level target. Under optimal policy, the monetary authority accepts higher inflation risk in the future to minimize downside risk when the economy hits the zero lower bound. In the face of large shocks, raising the central bank's inflation target can attenuate much of the downside risk posed by the zero lower bound. In my third chapter, I examine how assumptions about monetary policy affect the economy at the zero lower bound. Even when current policy rates are zero, I argue that assumptions regarding the future conduct of monetary policy are crucial in determining the effects of real fluctuations at the zero lower bound. Under standard Taylor (1993)-type policy rules, government spending multipliers are large, improvements in technology cause large contractions in output, and structural reforms that decrease firm market power are bad for the economy. However, these policy rules imply that the central bank stops responding to the economy at the zero lower bound. This assumption is inconsistent with recent statements and actions by monetary policymakers. If monetary policy endogenously responds to current economic conditions using expectations about future policy, then spending multipliers are much smaller and increases in technology and firm competitiveness remain expansionary. Thus, the model-implied benefits of higher government spending are highly sensitive to the specification of monetary policy
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Biswal, Basudev. "The Geomorphological Origin of Recession Curves." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3421672.
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This study is motivated by the fact that natural basins share some striking similarities in their basic organization as well as in the way they respond to rainfall input. The central objective here is thus to link the patterns observed in morphology of basins with the patterns that we observe in their hydrologic responses. This study particularly attempts to uncover hidden links between basin morphology and recession curves through a simple conceptual model describing dynamics of saturated channel network or active drainage network (ADN).
Analysis of recession curves is performed by following the framework proposed in the paper by Brutsaert and Neiber, i. e. to interpret –dQ/dt as having a power law relationship with Q (-dQ/dt = kQα), where Q is the discharge at the outlet of a basin at time t. It is shown here that N(l), number of links in a channel network at distance l from their channel heads exhibits a power law relationship with G (l), length of the ADN or length of the channel network at a distance greater than or equal to l from channel heads. And by assuming that the rate of discharge produced by the AND per unit length, q, and the rate at which channel network desaturates towards downstream, c, are constant in space and time, it is argued here that the power law relationship between –d/dt and Q essentially originates from the power law relationship bewteen N(l) and G(l).
It is observed that there is no unique relationship between –dQ/dt and Q for a basin, which implies, the popular assumption that there exists a unique relationship between storage and discharge of a basin is wrong. Also a typical –dQ/dt vs Q curve possess different regimes, because of its association with flood response that we observe shortly after rainfall and observational errors that particularly dominate during very low flow periods. One can observe a fairly good power law relationship between –dQ/dt vs Q, shortly after a rainfall event, continuing for several days. This regime for each individual hydrograph is identified by means of visual interpretation. The power law exponent α for each individual hydrograph of a basin is then computed and the median value is considered as the representing α for the basin . A good agreement is observed between the observed power law exponents, α0, with the geomorphic power law exponents, αg, for 67 United States basins of different sizes and situated in different climatic zones. The correlation is strong, particularly, for the steep basins without having significant human influences, like the presence of dams, cities, extensive agriculture practice etc. Also it is found that the power law exponent α is closely related to the well known Hack’s exponent .
The coefficient k is observed to have power law relationship with any characteristics discharge chosen deonated as Qn, which objectively means the discharge observed after n days of a hydrograph peak. Therefore, one can make different recession curves of a basin collapse on one another by using a suitable multiplicative function. Also it is observed that the power law exponent, γ, as well as the coefficient of determination increases as n increases. Thus the collapse gets more prominent with increase in n.
N(l)/A vs G(l)/A graphs of different basins are found to be collapsing on another, implying that natural basins follow some universal geomorphological themes. Recession curves on the other hand are dependent on many factors like geology, land use, topographic characteristics. It is observed that the recession curves of the basins that have similar geological and topographical characteristics collapse on one another. This observation essentially implies that one can classify natural basins by just observing their recession curves.
This finding further strengthens the assumptions of constant q and constant c made earlier. And finally, it is stressed that the argument, recession curves bearing signatures of basin morphology, can be safely stretched to conclude that the incision of the channel network may be due, to a significant degree, to subsurface flow, in such a way as produce an approximately uniform drainage of the local groundwater system and thus a uniform distribution of q.Questo studio è motivato dal fatto che i bacini naturali sono accomunati da importanti similarità relativamente alla loro organizzazione ed al modo in cui essi rispondono agli impulsi di pioggia. L’obiettivo centrale di questa tesi è quindi quello di individuare una relazione tra alcune caratteristiche osservabili nella morfologia dei bacini e la loro risposta idrologica. In particolare con questo studio si cerca di scoprire analogie nascoste tra la morfologia dei bacini e le curve di recessione attraverso un semplice modello concettuale in grado di descrivere le dinamiche delle reti in saturazione o “Active Drainage Networks” (ADN). L’analisi delle curve di recessione è effettuata seguendo un approccio proposto in Brutsaert and Neiber (1977), in cui -dQ/dt è rappresentato in funzione di Q attraverso una legge di potenza (-dQ/dt = k Qα), dove Q è il deflusso alla sezione di chiusura di un bacino al tempo t. Nella tesi si mostra che il numero di connessioni (links) in una rete, N(l), ad una distanza l dalle origini (channel heads) è correlato attraverso una legge di potenza con la lunghezza della ADN, cioè la lunghezza delle connessioni ad una distanza maggiore o uguale ad l dalle origini. Assumendo che il deflusso, q , prodotto dalla ADN per unità di lunghezza e la velocità di desaturazione della rete, c, siano costanti nel tempo e nello spazio si discute l’ipotesi che la legge di potenza che lega -dQ/dt e Q abbia origine dalla legge di potenza che lega N(l) e G(l). Si osserva che non c’è un'unica relazione tra -dQ/dt e Q per un bacino, il che suggerisce che la nota assunzione di una singola relazione tra deflusso e volume di immagazzinamento sia inappropriata. Inoltre, una tipica curva -dQ/dt vs. Q possiede regimi differenti dovuti al suo legame con la risposta superficiale che si osserva subito dopo un evento di pioggia e agli errori di misura effettuati in particolare in periodi di deflusso moderato. Si può osservare una relazione di potenza discretamente buona tra -dQ/dt e Q subito dopo un evento di pioggia e persistente per diversi giorni. L’esponente α della legge di potenza per ciascun idrogramma di un bacino è quindi calcolato e il valore mediano è considerato rappresentativo di tutti i valori di α per il bacino. I valori osservati dell’esponente αo sono in buon accordo con gli esponenti della relazione geomorfologica, αg, per 67 bacini statunitensi di dimensioni diverse e situati in diverse zone climatiche. In particolare si osserva una forte correlazione per bacini con elevata pendenza che non presentano aspetti antropici significativi, come ad esempio dighe, città, diffuse aree coltivate, ecc. Si è inoltre osservato che l’esponente α è significativamente correlato con il noto esponente di Hack. Si è visto che il coefficiente k è legato attraverso una legge di potenza con qualsiasi deflusso caratteristico selezionato: k=k’Qn-γ, dove Qn è il deflusso osservato dopo n giorni dal picco dell’idrogramma. Di conseguenza, diverse curve di recessione possono essere fatte collassare in un’unica curva. Si osserva inoltre che l’esponente γ della legge di potenza e il coefficiente di determinazione aumentano all’aumentare di n. Si osserva come le curve N(l)/A vs. G(l)/A di diversi bacini collassino in un'unica curva, il che implica che i bacini naturali seguono una qualche legge geomorfologica universale. Le curve di recessione, invece, dipendono da molti fattori come la geologia, l’uso del suolo, le caratteristiche topografiche. Si osserva che le curve di recessione di bacini con simili caratteristiche topografiche e geologiche collassano in un’unica curva. Questa osservazione implica che è possibile classificare bacini naturali solo sulla base delle curve di recessione. Questa scoperta rafforza ulteriormente l’assunzione di q e c costanti fatta in precedenza. Infine viene messo in evidenza che il fatto che le curve di recessione rappresentano una sorta di “firma” della morfologia dei bacini suggerisce che il deflusso subsuperficiale influenza la rete, in modo da produrre un drenaggio approssimativamente uniforme, e perciò una distribuzione uniforme di q.
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Rasuli, Shakawan, and Emil Gryth. "Marketing in Recession: - How have Swedish firms in the consumer discretionary sector reacted to the current recession?" Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för ekonomi och teknik (SET), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-20068.
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