Academic literature on the topic 'Red ware industry'

During the twentieth century, company welfare programs have been developed in Italy, as in other countries. Once they had been introduced in some large firms after the “Red years,” social programs spread to the rest of industry at the end of the 1920s, with more noticeable growth during the Depression years when, in other countries, such programs were on the wane. Companies investing in assistance and recreation did so not because this was perceived as being in the firms' interest in managing workers, but in obedience to directives from the Fascist government and in keeping with the corporate ideology of a regime that seemed to assure protection of the country's industry.

The coronavirus pandemic accelerated the transition to online by 5 years. Although the IT industry has exploded in the last 20 years, Romania is still at the bottom of the European ranking on digitization, ranking 26th out of 28 countries. In Romania only in 2020 the Romanian Digitization Authority (ADR) was established. and a ministry of research and digitization has been set up and some interesting provisions appear in the government program, such as the introduction of informatics in primary classes. Statistics show that only 9.2 percent of jobs with earnings below the average wage in the economy could be done in telework. It is now more difficult to assume that there will ever be a return to normalcy, especially since the restrictive measures imposed over a longer period of time lead to changes in human behavior in such a way that it is impossible to predict to what extent once. what the crisis generated by Covid-19 will disappear will return to a lifestyle similar to that before this period.

Fraud and white-collar crimes have assumed different dimensions, albeit with increased sophistication within the Nigerian banking industry. Hence forgeries, deceit and other unwholesome practices have continued to thrive. Unfortunately, there is no definitive answer as to why people commit fraud. Good knowledge of the symptoms of occurring fraud is essential for us to know so we can learn to prevent it. In line with this thought, it has become necessary to review the existing theories on fraud and to ascertain if there are inherent clues or red flags that can be drawn from them to assist banks in the fight against fraud. That is the main objective of this study. There is no gain in stating that any meaningful attempt at stopping the menace of financial crimes will be a welcome development in the long run as managing fraud instead of preventing it might be so dangerous, it poses an institution’s ongoing concern. Thus, the broad objective of this research is to ascertain means and ways for preventing fraud in the Nigerian banking industry. A vast array of fraud theories were reviewed and reconciled with the pattern of financial crimes in the Nigerian banking industry. The research identified the influence of power, personal gain and self-control, loss aversion and risk acceptance, rationalization, and emotion as the drivers or propensity to commit fraud. We must learn our lessons from a past misdemeanor, as this will lead to a reduction in the re-occurrence of frauds. Thus, the essential lessons learnt from this study include the need for effective corporate governance, beefing up of internal control measures and objectively structured mechanisms to regulate and to supervise the Nigerian banking industry. There is also an urgent need for government’s commitment to wage an all-out war against crime and to create a new healthy culture of integrity and honesty in all aspects of life with zero tolerance for fraud and white-collar crimes even in the Nigerian banking industry. Our society also needs to inculcate the principle of self-control/ restraint in individuals.

Abstract For audiences not familiar with antiquity, the shattering of the Portland Vase at the British Museum in 1845 raised awareness of a classical past which was claimed by many European nations as their cultural heritage. This article explores how the British ceramics industry quickly exploited a ready market, prompted by such interest. A new genre of wares was produced industrially, mainly in Stoke-on-Trent until the 1870s, although manufacture continued sporadically until 1900. Modern techniques, including moulding and transfer-printing, allowed the creation of versions of black- and red-figure ancient Greek ceramics, sometimes in vivid polychrome. Hitherto largely overlooked by museums and standard histories of ceramics, the material evidence of this fashion endures. Although the resulting artefacts were often marketed without reference to their origins in antiquity, an argument is presented here for their having more than merely decorative significance.

We are currently faced with the problem of the Covid 19 pandemic and no cure has been found. One of the efforts made by the community is to implement health protocols to the recommendations from the government and increase the body's resistance to prevent this Covid 19 attack. Indonesia has a wealth of spices that are quite large in number and type. According to some studies that this spice can increase the body's resistance because it contains antioxidants and active compounds that can ward off free radicals. This is one of the business opportunities as well as an effort to increase the body's endurance if consumed. Community service activities organized by ATI Padang Polytechnic, Agro Industry Engineering Study Program aims to provide technology for processing instant spice drinks based on red ginger. The spices used are red ginger, cinnamon, cloves and lemongrass. The product produced is instant red ginger. Partners of this activity are UKM/communities in Bungo Pasang Subdistrict, Koto Tangah District, Padang. The method used is to deliver processing technology through virtual training and practice independently. After attending virtual training and independent practice using equipment and materials that have been assisted by team, participants submitted their products that have been packaged as evaluation materials. It is hoped that with this activity, UKM/communities can produce this product in order to increase the resilience of the family as well as their business choice. The processing of spices into instant beverage products is expected to be widely marketed, more durable and provide added value to spice commodities. Kata kunci : Minuman instan, rempah, daya tahan tubuh

Retailing is one of the important industry in India recorded for almost 10 percent of nation’s GDP. The lesser wage earning workers are vulnerable to aggravation and other discrimination at work place. In the informal textile retail shops, women have to pass through numerous problems as they have to manage with both sides of life, say work and family. Predominantly, such women are semi-literates, educated unemployed and financially deprived. It is revealed from the data that there are 58 percent of the women workers are between ages of 30 to 40 and there is no women worker above 45 years. It is clearly shows that the shop owners are not interested to recruit or retain the women workers above 45 years. The educational status of workers constitutes an average of secondary level schooling and they could able to read, write in the local language and understand English slightly. Almost 60 percent of the women workers are belonging to marginalized section of the society. In the present study, social and economic status of sample respondents are analyzed and found that they are poorly paid in terms of wages, and work under deprived and vulnerable working condition. It is revealed from the primary data that women workers are affected by many occupational health issues only after engaging in this work. Moreover, the women workers are sexually exploited and physically harassed.

Defoliator Pest Attack on Monoculture and Agroforestry Planting Patterns of Jabon Jabon (Anthocephalus spp.) is one of the local plant species in Indonesia that have the potential to be developed in forest plantation as well as for other purposes, such as mined-land reclamation, reforestation and tree shade, because growth is very fast, the ability adaptation on various site conditions and silvicultural treatment is relatively easy. This species is also expected to become increasingly important to the timber industry in the future, especially when the raw material for construction timber from natural forests is to be on the wane. This plant has long time cultivated by society in almost all parts of Indonesia either by monoculture and mixture such as agroforestry. One of the obstacles of this type is their defoliator pests. This study aimed to identify the type of pest defoliator which attacking red Jabon (A. macrophyllus Roxb. Havil) and white Jabon (A. cadamba Miq.) 8 months aged were planted in monoculture or agroforestry (paddy-rice plants). The study was conducted on August to December 2014 in Sumber Mekar Mukti and Sukatani Village, Tanjung Lago Subdistrict, Banyuasin County, South Sumatera Province. The results showed that the types of pests that attack plant red Jabon was Moduza procris Cramer (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) with an attack percentage of 45.5%. While on the plant, namely white Jabon was Arthroschista hilaralis Walk with an attack percentage of 86%. As for the pattern of agroforestry between red Jabon, white Jabon and rice found only pests of A. hilaralis with an attack percentage of 5%. This shows that agroforestry cropping pattern could suppress pest attack in the plant of Jabon.Key words: pest, red Jabon, white Jabon ABSTRAK Jabon (Anthocephalus spp.) merupakan salah satu jenis tumbuhan lokal Indonesia yang berpotensi untuk dikembangkan dalam pembangunan hutan tanaman maupun untuk tujuan lainnya, seperti reklamasi lahan bekas tambang, penghijauan dan pohon peneduh, karena pertumbuhannya yang sangat cepat, kemampuan beradaptasinya pada berbagai kondisi tempat tumbuh, serta perlakuan silvikulturnya yang relatif mudah. Jenis ini juga diharapkan menjadi semakin penting bagi industri perkayuan di masa mendatang, terutama ketika bahan baku kayu pertukangan dari hutan alam diperkirakan akan semakin berkurang. Tanaman ini sudah lama dibudidayakan masyarakat hampir di seluruh wilayah Indonesia baik dengan pola tanam monokultur maupun campuran seperti agroforestri. Salah satu kendala dalam budidaya jenis ini yaitu adanya serangan hama defoliator. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi jenis hama defoliator yang menyerang tegakan jabon merah (A. macrophyllus Roxb. Havil) dan jabon putih (A. cadamba Miq.) umur 8 bulan yang ditanam secara monokultur maupun agroforestri (dengan tanaman padi). Penelitian dilakukan pada Bulan Agustus sampai Desember 2014 di Desa Sumber Mekar Mukti dan Desa Sukatani, Kecamatan Tanjung Lago, Kabupaten Banyuasin, Provinsi Sumatera Selatan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jenis hama defoliator yang menyerang tegakan jabon merah yaitu Moduza procris Cramer (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae) dengan persentase serangan sebesar 45,5%. Sedangkan pada tegakan jabon putih yaitu Arthroschista hilaralis Walk dengan persentase serangan sebesar 86%. Adapun pada pola agroforestri antara jabon merah, jabon putih dan padi hanya dijumpai serangan hama A. hilaralis dengan persentase serangan sebesar 5%. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pola tanam agroforestri mampu menekan serangan hama pada tegakan jabon.Kata kunci : hama, jabon merah, jabon putih

AbstractThe excavations conducted at Euesperides between 1999 and 2007 under the auspices of the Society for Libyan Studies, London, and the Department of Antiquities, Libya, and jointly directed by Paul Bennet and Andrew Wilson, brought to light private houses and a building complex, industrial areas related to purple dye production and part of the city's fortification wall. Among the finds was a highly significant body of local, regional and imported pottery (from the Greek and Punic world, Cyprus, Italy and elsewhere), dated between the last quarter of the seventh and the middle of the third century BC, when the city was abandoned.This archaeological project adopted an innovative approach to the study of pottery from the site, based on the total quantification of the coarse, fine wares and transport amphorae. This was supplemented by a targeted programme of petrographic analysis to shed light on production centres and thus questions about the trade and the economy of ancient Euesperides. The pottery study by K. Göransson, K. Swift and E. Zimi demonstrated that although the city gradually developed a significant industry of ceramics, it relied heavily on imports to cover its needs and that imported pottery reached Euesperides’ sheltered harbour either directly from the supplying regions or most often through complex maritime networks in the Mediterranean which changed over time.Cooking pots from Aegina and the Punic world, mortaria, bowls, jugs and table amphorae from Corinth as well as transport amphorae from various centres containing olive oil, wine, processed meat and fish were transported to the city from Greece, Italy/Sicily, Cyprus and elsewhere. The so-called amphorae B formed the majority, while Corinthian, Aegean (Thasian, Mendean, Knidian, etc.), Greco-Italic and Punic were adequatly represented. Regarding fine wares, East Greek, Laconian and Corinthian are common until the end of the sixth century; Attic black-glazed, and to a lesser extend, black-figure and red-figure pots dominate the assemblages between the fifth and the mid-third centuries BC, while Corinthian, Italian/Sicilian and Punic seem to have been following the commodities flow at Euesperides from the fourth century BC onwards. Finally, Cyrenaican pottery and transport amphorae have been also identified at Euesperides implying a considerable volume of inter-regional trade.

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Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior
This research has as an empirical universe, the productive territory of red ware in the Serid? region of Rio Grande do Norte. In the last years this territory has gone through a process of appropriation that has been substantially changing the environmental and social dynamism of the place. However, the industry of red ware has been focusing in some areas, mainly, in the county of Parelhas and Carna?ba dos Dantas. From this point of view, the aim of this work consists in analyze the use of these areas by the red ware industry and the transformations occurred with the expansion of the number of industries and the productivity raise, that requires bigger amounts of earthenware and wood, resources that are low in referred territory. As the result of this process, the suitable alternative has been to acquire inputs in other Rio Grande do Norte counties, as well as in Para?ba counties. To reach the proposed objective, the methodology of this work was consisted of bibliographic and empirical research, regarding the occupation that this activity covers in the Serid? region. From the information obtained during the research, it can be stated that the inputs to the production execution in the red ware industry are acquired in the geographic nearby lands. The analysis of the stages of the production(acquisition of raw material, production and commercialization) showed that the activity acts in a continuous area, having as principal consumer market other northeastern states and the state of Par?. The present study revealed that the pottery activity is set as untenable, because of non-stopping use of the argil and wood, resources that are vanishing from the area, which consume causes a many problems such as deforestation and erosion. Besides, the sale of productive lands for the red ware industries makes harder its good use by the familiar agriculturists in the development of agriculture and cattle raising activity, which for many times is the main economic activity of the place. The precariousness reveals in the constant accidents at work, that most of them are neglected by the local authorities, without any penalty to the industries. Therefore, the industry of red ware in Serid? uses the territory as a resource, leaving its environmental problems that my compromise the quality of life of the actual and future generations
Esta pesquisa tem como universo emp?rico, o territ?rio produtor de cer?mica vermelha no Serid? potiguar. Nos ?ltimos anos esse territ?rio passou por um processo de apropria??o que tem alterado substancialmente a din?mica social e ambiental do lugar. No Serid?, a ind?stria de cer?mica vermelha tem se concentrado em algumas ?reas, sobretudo, nos munic?pios de Parelhas e Carna?ba dos Dantas. Nesta perspectiva, o objetivo desse trabalho consiste em analisar o uso do territ?rio pela ind?stria de cer?mica vermelha e as transforma??es ocorridas com a expans?o no n?mero de ind?strias e no aumento da produtividade, o que requer maiores quantidades de argila e de lenha, recursos escassos no referido territ?rio. Em decorr?ncia desse processo, a alternativa encontrada tem sido adquirir os insumos em outros munic?pios do Rio Grande do Norte, como tamb?m em munic?pios paraibanos. Para alcan?ar o objetivo proposto, o encaminhamento metodol?gico envolveu pesquisa bibliogr?fica e emp?rica, considerando a espacializa??o que essa atividade abrange no territ?rio seridoense. A partir das informa??es obtidas durante a pesquisa pode-se afirmar que os insumos para a realiza??o da produ??o na ind?stria de cer?mica vermelha s?o adquiridos no seu entorno geogr?fico. A an?lise das etapas do circuito de produ??o (aquisi??o da mat?ria-prima, produ??o e comercializa??o) mostrou que esta atividade atua numa ?rea cont?nua, tendo como principal mercado consumidor os demais estados do Nordeste e o estado do Par?. O presente estudo revelou ainda que a atividade ceramista configura-se como insustent?vel, haja vista a recorr?ncia permanente ? argila e ? lenha, insumos escassos no territ?rio, cuja aquisi??o provoca uma s?rie de problemas como o desmatamento e a eros?o. Al?m disso, a venda dos solos f?rteis para as cer?micas dificulta o seu aproveitamento pelos agricultores familiares, no desenvolvimento das atividades agropecu?rias, que muitas vezes configura-se na principal atividade econ?mica da propriedade. A precariedade da atividade se revela nos constantes acidentes de trabalho, que na grande maioria, s?o negligenciados pelas autoridades locais, sem aplica??o de nenhuma penalidade ?s empresas. Assim, a ind?stria de cer?mica vermelha no Serid? usa o territ?rio de forma seletiva e excludente, deixando s?rias problem?ticas ambientais, as quais podem comprometer a qualidade de vida das atuais e futuras gera??es

This study considers industrial society and development in the East Tennessee Copper Basin from the 1890s through World War II; its main focus will be on the primary industrial concern, Tennessee Copper Company (TCC 1899), owned by the Lewisohn Group, New York. The study differs from other Appalachian scholarship in its assessment of New South industries generally overlooked. Wars and increased reliance on organic chemicals tied the basin to defense needs and agricultural advance. Locals understood the basin held expanding economic opportunities superior to those in the surrounding mountains and saw themselves as participants in the nation’s industrial and economic progress, and a vital part of its defense. The study upends earlier scholarship contending local industrial concerns acted proactively to challenges from farmers harmed by industrial pollution; investigation shows firms hesitated to initiate new production processes and manipulated local elections. Partisan developments woven amid all this underscore errors in assuming ancient regional affinity for Republicans. Confederate heritage gave Democrats an historic advantage that fractured before New Deal progressivism and expanding basin Republican power. Markets forced basin firms to merge and embrace technological change affecting working people’s relationships, forcing workers to improve skills or settle for low-skill jobs. Excepting TCC managers and supervisory staff, provincialism ruled; suspicions and competitiveness among workers grew as most miners lived a few scattered villages and most managers and craftsmen settled in the basin’s “Twin-cities” district. Early union efforts collapsed before union mismanagement, rational management and a company union based upon Sam Lewisohn’s ideals. Management managed to wrest control of its industrial relations despite the effects of Depression and the New Deal’s empowerment of workers. Workers’ infighting, reflecting neighborhood demographics and ideological differences, benefitted TCC; it convinced locals TCC could best protect industrial peace. The submissive AFL union installed fit of ownership’s nationally recognized program for industrial relations reliant on federal power. After competition crippled local industry, locals continued their reliance on government: to investigate the medical consequences of extraction work and coordinate environmental restoration. Recent regional anti-government populism makes the basin’s peculiar historic reliance on federal help engaging.

A partir de la seconde moitié du IVe siècle, les productions de sigillée de l’Argonne, région naturelle située entre Châlons-en-Champagne et Verdun, sont diffusées dans le Diocèse des Gaules et plus largement dans l’ouest de l’Europe. Ce type de céramique, caractérisée par la présence d’un décor en bandeau imprimé à l’aide d’une molette, a longtemps été considéré comme produit uniquement dans les ateliers argonnais. Cependant, les études de ces dernières décennies sur le sujet ont permis d'avancer l'hypothèse de l'existence de plusieurs productions locales imitant les formes et les décors de ces sigillées. Grâce aux méthodes d’analyses archéométriques utilisées (analyses chimiques par fluorescence X, observations pétrographiques, analyses minéralogiques par diffraction des rayons X), l’existence de plusieurs groupes de production est validée. L’adéquation entre le classement statistique des données géochimiques et les hypothèses archéologiques principalement basées sur l’identification des décors à la molette confirme la pertinence du partitionnement obtenu. Ces résultats reflètent la diversité des argiles utilisées pour la fabrication de ces sigillées hors de la région argonnaise (argiles calcaires, argiles peu calcaires et argiles kaolinitiques) et les capacités d’adaptation des artisans aux ressources géologiques disponibles. Les observations pétrographiques et minéralogiques attestent également de l’utilisation de fours à sigillées et des fours à flammes nues (parfois conjointement dans un même atelier) par les potiers. Cette caractérisation met en lumière un phénomène d’essaimage d’ateliers, généralement de taille modeste, qui produisent et distribuent ces sigillées décorées à la molette sur de courtes distances
From the second half of the 4th century, the East Gaulish red-slipped ware of Argonne, an area located between Châlons-en-Champagne and Verdun, are widely diffused in the Diocese of Gaul and in the west of Europe. This kind of ceramic, characterized by a stringcrouse decoration printed using a roller, has long been considered as only produced in the Argonne’s workshops. However, the studies of these last decades has made it possible to came up with a new theory that suggest the existence of several local productions imitating the forms and the decorations of these sigillata. Using differents methods of archaeometric analysis (chemical analyses by x-ray fluorescence, petrographic observations, mineralogical analyses by x-ray diffraction), the existence of several groups of production is validated. The adequacy between the statistical clustering of the geochemical data and the archaeological assumptions mainly based on the identification of the roller-stamped decorations confirms the relevance of the partitioning obtained. These results reflect the diversity of the clays used for the manufacturing of these red-slipped ware outside of the Argonne area (calcareous clay, non calcareous clay, kaolinitic clay) and the craftsmen’s capacities to adapt to the geological ressources available. The petrographic and mineralogical observations also attest the use of sigillata kilns and updraft kilns by the potters (sometimes both in the same workshop). This characterization highlight a phenomenon of workshops’s swarming, generally of modest size, which produce and distribute these roller-stamped red-slipped ware on short distances

The Last Word argues that the Hollywood novel opened up space for cultural critique of the film industry at a time when the industry lacked the capacity to critique itself. While the young studio system worked tirelessly to burnish its public image in the wake of celebrity scandal, several industry insiders wrote fiction to fill in what newspapers and fan magazines left out. Throughout the 1920s and 1930s, these novels aimed to expose the invisible machinery of classical Hollywood cinema, including not only the evolving artifice of the screen but also the promotional discourse that complemented it. As likeminded filmmakers in the 1940s and 1950s gradually brought the dark side of the industry to the screen, however, the Hollywood novel found itself struggling to live up to its original promise of delivering the unfilmable. By the 1960s, desperate to remain relevant, the genre had devolved into little more than erotic fantasy of movie stars behind closed doors, perhaps the only thing the public couldn’t already find elsewhere. Still, given their unique ability to speak beyond the institutional restraints of their time, these earlier works offer a window into the industry’s dynamic creation and re-creation of itself in the public imagination.

Aaron Copland suffered during the Second Red Scare that swept the United States after World War II. When Congressman Fred Busbey announced that the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC) had compiled “a long record of questionable affiliations” proving Copland a “communist sympathizer” or “fellow traveler,” the 1953 Eisenhower inaugural committee cancelled a planned performance of Copland‘s Lincoln Portrait, and the allegations became national news. Copland’s progressive politics of the 1930s, his involvement in the 1949 Waldorf Peace Conference, and his association with the State Department--which some considered dangerously tolerant of homosexuals--made him a target for anti-communism of the Hearst press, the American Legion, the entertainment industry blacklist Red Channels, J. Edgar Hoover’s FBI, and Senator Joseph McCarthy. Copland narrowly escaped “naming names.” Though his public reputation ultimately recovered, in the early years of the Cold War his creative spark and cultural influence were sadly diminished.

This book traces how the acclaimed and bestselling author Thomas Mann became one of America's most prominent anti-fascists and the spokesperson for a German cultural ideal that Nazism had perverted. Thomas Mann, winner of the 1929 Nobel Prize in literature and author of such world-renowned novels as Buddenbrooks and The Magic Mountain, began his self-imposed exile in the United States in 1938, having fled his native Germany in the wake of Nazi persecution and public burnings of his books. Mann embraced his role as a public intellectual, deftly using his literary reputation and his connections in an increasingly global publishing industry to refute Nazi propaganda. As the book shows, Mann undertook successful lecture tours of the country and penned widely read articles that alerted U.S. audiences and readers to the dangers of complacency in the face of Nazism's existential threat. Spanning four decades, from the eve of World War I, when Mann was first translated into English, to 1952, the year in which he left an America increasingly disfigured by McCarthyism, the book establishes Mann as a significant figure in the wartime global republic of letters.

The book tells the story, largely unknown to Western readers, of the Soviet home front during World War II. After Hitler’s invasion in 1941, German troops conquered the heartland of Soviet industry and agriculture and turned the occupied territories into mass killing fields. In one of the greatest wartime feats in history, Soviet workers rapidly evacuated factories, food, and people thousands of miles to the east and built a new industrial base beyond the reach of German bombers. As millions of refugees and evacuees streamed east, mass epidemics engulfed the country. Health officials battled to establish new public health regulations. The Soviet state reached the height of its power, imposing military discipline and mobilizing millions of people to work thousands of miles from home. The state assumed responsibility for feeding the nation through a strict ration system. Given terrible food shortages, many people, including workers, began to starve. This book examines the dark and painful war years from a new perspective, telling the stories of evacuees, refugees, teenaged and women workers, runaways from work, Gulag prisoners, and deportees. The narrative follows the Red Army as it retreated east and then battled back westward after Stalingrad, presenting “total war” behind the front lines in a chronicle of spirited defense efforts, draconian state directives, teeming black markets, and selfless heroism. Based on a vast trove of new archival materials, the book tells the story of suffering, sacrifice, and commitment that made the Allied victory possible.

Skill has played a central role in immigration scholarship, most notably in a protracted debate over whether ‘unskilled’ immigrants threaten job security for less or moderately educated native-born workers. In recent years, scholars have re-examined whether immigrant workers, particularly those with limited formal education, are unskilled. Extending this further, the chapter argues that immigrants are not simply individuals that possess, acquire, and apply their skill. Immigrants are also contributors to collective learning processes through which industry skills are developed, replenished, and recombined overtime. But immigrants are especially vulnerable to skill misclassification because they lack access to institutions that can protect and defend spaces for collective learning. Considering immigrant skill reproduction in the absence of institutional protections allows us to reflect on the role those institutions play in shaping the politics of skill—a role that can be strengthened as part of a growing movement in support of low-wage workers more generally.

This book explores the ways in which postwar Asian cinema was shaped by transnational collaborations and competitions between newly independent and colonial states at the height of Cold War politics. The book adopts a simultaneously global and regional approach when analyzing the region's film cultures and industries. New economic conditions in the Asian region and shared postwar experiences among the early cinema entrepreneurs were influenced by Cold War politics, US cultural diplomacy, and intensified cultural flows during the 1950s and 1960s. The book reconstructs Asian film history in light of the international relationships forged, broken, and re-established as the influence of the non-aligned movement grew across the Cold War. The book elucidates how motion picture executives, creative personnel, policy makers, and intellectuals in East and Southeast Asia aspired to industrialize their Hollywood-inspired system in order to expand the market and raise the competitiveness of their cultural products. They did this by forming the Federation of Motion Picture Producers in Asia, co-hosting the Asian Film Festival, and co-producing films. The book demonstrates that the emergence of the first intensive postwar film producers' network in Asia was, in large part, the offspring of Cold War cultural politics and the product of American hegemony. Film festivals that took place in cities as diverse as Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kuala Lumpur were annual showcases of cinematic talent as well as opportunities for the Central Intelligence Agency to establish and maintain cultural, political, and institutional linkages between the United States and Asia during the Cold War. This book reanimates this almost-forgotten history of cinema and the film industry in Asia.

The paper considers a set of surprisingly well preserved Eastern Sigillata A and Late Roman C/Phocean Red Slip Ware and D/“Cypriot” Red Sip Ware vessels from the late 1st-early 2nd century AD, found in the bedding fill of a cellar floor of an oil pres building located in the mountain village of Chhim in Lebanon. The set included plates (EAS Forms 35, 37B, 53), a jug (ESA Form 108) and dishes (LRC Form 1?, LRD Form 1). Local plain pottery was represented by Chhim Ware jugs and table amphorae. The deposit was dated contextually to the mid 1st-century AD and linked to the earliest village occupation in the area. It demonstrated that the residents of the village in the early Roman age, most probably involved in the profitable olive-oil industry of the times, had means enough to curry to a fashion for owning some of the best tableware available on the Levantine coastal market.

This chapter shows how anarchists in Florida played important roles in the Caribbean, the Cuban War for Independence in the 1890s, the early years of anarchist organization in Cuba after the U.S. occupation had ended in 1902, and labor conflicts impacting the regional tobacco industry. Florida has to be seen beyond its geopolitical confines of a U.S. state and rather as part of a transnational network linked to anarchist political and labor struggles in Cuba and Puerto Rico. As a result, the chapter emphasizes the transnational dimensions of Hispanic anarchism in the Caribbean, especially the movement of people, and the role of anarchist media in transferring money and ideas across the Florida Straits.

Two Weeks After BusinessWeek lauded Maytag’s remarkable success, the company broke clean from a century-old tradition. On August 12, 1999, Lloyd Ward replaced Leonard Hadley by a vote of the board of directors. Ward was the first executive never to have worked for Maytag. He had not been raised in the idiosyncratic Maytag culture. He was not even an appliance guy. Hadley had been grooming Ward for the CEO’s position since Ward came to the company as president of the home appliance division in 1996. Two internal candidates had been groomed and judged unfit for the CEO’s job; Ward was their last hope. Still, the board’s choice shocked many. Ward was anything but short on confidence though. He had wrestled a childhood of poverty and a career touched often by racism and had won. He had captained the Michigan State basketball team. He had earned a black belt in karate. He was now a star of business on the rise. When Ward became only the second African American to become a CEO at a Fortune 500 company, Black Enterprise declared it a “watershed moment.” It was easy to see why Hadley liked Ward: he brought Maytag a magnetic personality, inspirational leadership, and some badly needed diversity. Hadley said he “drooled” when he saw Ward’s resume and relished bringing in this bold, extroverted marketing man. Even before he became CEO, Ward began to revamp Maytag’s old-fashioned culture with an “unapologetically macho” leadership style. He began to shift Maytag’s focus to brand management, lower-end products, and sophisticated consumer research. Ward also brought in people from outside the appliance industry, from P&G and PepsiCo mainly. Ward’s ascendance won praise, including a fawning cover story in BusinessWeek. Joe Krejci, a Galesburg logistics manager who reported directly to Newton, was taken by Ward’s irresistible charm. Ward, still a diehard Michigan State Spartan, once came into Krejci’s office and stomped on his University of Michigan doormat with a theatrical smile. They then “shot the shit” about Big Ten football and basketball.

World War I made the Tri-State district more productive and profitable than ever before. War industry demand for lead and zinc raised prices and wages, and led to the dramatic expansion of mines in the Oklahoma part of the district. Wartime nationalism also supercharged the risk-taking masculinity of the district’s miners who asserted their racist claims to the piece rate with new fervor that further undermined the appeals of union organizers and government health and safety reformers. But in the 1920s miners found their employers, who had grown bigger and stronger during the war, newly reluctant to pay them high wages. This stand-off created new opportunities for union organizers in the district, but Tri-State miners ultimately rejected solidarity in favor of the economic advantages they believed loyal, white American men deserved. By the 1920s, their working-class communities were organized around a faith in capitalism, violent masculinity, and white racism now transformed during the war into a staunch white nationalism. Having abandoned organized labor, Tri-State miners found themselves without allies as mining companies moved in the late 1920s to constrain their risk-taking behavior through new health controls aimed to eliminate silicosis and damaged men from the district.

This chapter argues Walker Percy’s Love in the Ruins (1971) and Alice Walker’s Meridian (1976) portray a post-South in which “southern” is not defined by geography but by sensibilities appropriated by the Cold War thinkers and the culture industry. Walker’s Meridian reveals the interconnectedness between characters’ regional backgrounds, racial identities, and roles as activists within Civil Rights movement. These connections are mediated by television, as it broadcasted for the entire US the struggles for equality that occurred mainly in the US South. Love in the Ruins is a satire about suburban American and its politics in the wake of the Civil Rights Movement, as well as a plea for political moderation. Percy’s novel also forecasts the further fracturing of America through the culture wars into red states and blue states. Walker’s and Percy’s visions of the US South show communities measured by how their values measure up against Cold War visions of American-style democracy.

Russia’s ‘passage through Armageddon’—seven years of war, revolution, and civil war—destroyed almost entirely the empire’s vinicultural economy. Wartime prohibition, territorial losses, vineyard neglect, and the priorities of the new Bolshevik government harkened a crisis worse than phylloxera. Yet many prominent persons in the wine industry, who cut their professional teeth during the tsarist years, and who were often so-called ‘former people’, aristocrats or members of the bourgeoisie, found common cause with the new Soviet government during the 1920s. Because they thought the wine industry was too important to be ignored, these persons welcomed the regulatory gaze of newly activist Soviet state, even as that state sought the destruction of so many of them.

This chapter defines the serious Hollywood war film of the post-Vietnam era within industry, genre, visual style, and reception history. These movies engage seriously with historical fact from the point of view of the individual soldier and veteran and reflect their makers’ sense of moral urgency. Several of these films have sparked larger national conversations about specific American wars. The various discourses and practices of authenticity undergirding these films are discussed. The capacity of young men to read ostensibly anti-war films as celebrations of war is noted. The four overlapping cycles of serious war film production after Vietnam are outlined: films about Vietnam made between 1978 and 1989, four films about US military involvements in the Middle East in the 1990s, the long-lived World War II cycle begun in the late 1990s, and the twenty-first-century cycle of combat films about ongoing American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This chapter recounts how Nagata Masaichi, president of Daiei Studio in Japan, pitched the idea of founding the Federation of Motion Picture Producers in Southeast Asia (FPA) and an annual Southeast Asian Film Festival. It discusses the consensus among American foreign officers stationed in Asia that communists had infiltrated the Japanese film industry since the end of the US occupation of Japan in April 1952. It also describes the activities of the “Reds” in the Japanese motion picture industry that is considered a threat to the United States' strategic Cold War interests in the Asia-Pacific region. The chapter cites Rashomon, which won the award for Best Foreign Language Film at the Oscars and elicited simultaneous respect and jealousy from other nations in the region. It elaborates how the unprecedented success of Rashomon rapidly established Nagata's presence in the Japanese film industry.

No governmental agency or authority seriously polices reproductive negligence. The best practices set forth by industry organizations are completely voluntary and routinely ignored, and there isn’t even any reliable or comprehensive system to track the wrongful thwarting of family planning. The breakneck pace of reproductive advances isn’t the only reason that test tubes and tube ties have eluded meaningful oversight: Four factors explain this regulatory vacuum. First, many are wary of ceding the state control on any matter involving procreation—red tape would raise prices on valuable services, making it harder for poor people to pay for them. Second is the political economy of reproductive technology in the United States: The free-market origins of infertility treatment let it develop unimpeded by government oversight, in the private sphere of for-profit clinics that function less as medical practices than trade businesses. A third factor that cuts against regulation is its murky electoral implications, even in reliably red or blue districts—fear of fracturing their political bases leads prudent officials to avoid wading into the morass. Fourth and finally is the limited public outcry to address reproductive negligence. Besides, steep costs and selective treatment coverage leaves many patients unable even to fund a legal challenge if things go wrong. State legislatures place damage caps and other barriers in the way of bringing suit. And trials can be a spectacle for plaintiffs wary of exposing personal matters to the public glare of open court.

This chapter examines the problems encountered by France, Germany, and Italy as they each embarked on economic restructuring after World War I. A new bourgeois equilibrium seemed attainable in each country during the period; it rested on a consensus that united elites and middle classes against militant working-class claims. Capitalism and bourgeois hierarchies proved more resilient than either defenders or attackers had assumed. Furthermore, the movement of restoration was wider than the three societies. Across the Atlantic, “red scare” and recession were ushering in the era of normalcy. The chapter considers the evolution of leftist objectives in France, Germany, and Italy that accompanied the transition from the turmoil of 1918–1919 to the bourgeois recovery of 1920–1921. It also discusses the strategies of bourgeois defense and the failure of socialization in the German coal industry.

Abstract Internal diameter (ID) coating by means of thermal spraying for the wear and corrosion protection of components is currently experiencing growing interest in science and industry. While high-kinetic spray processes (such as HVOF, HVAF or warm spraying) in combination with cermet materials (e.g. WC-Co or Cr3C2-NiCr) are well established for this purpose in traditional coating of external OD (outer diameter) surfaces, they have hardly been used in the ID (internal diameter) area so far. Even though a few special ID spray guns with compact design and low combustion energy are by now available on the market, only little is known about the effects and interactions of the spray parameters on the particle behavior and the coating properties. Due to the mentioned gun specifications and the usually required short spray distances for ID coating, fine spray powders < 15 μm must be used to ensure sufficient melting and acceleration of the particles. In this study warm spraying of fine WC-12Co powders (-10 + 2 μm) using a novel spray gun “ID RED” (Thermico, Germany) was investigated. Statistical design of experiments (DoE) was employed to analyze and to model the influence of varying spray parameter settings on the in-flight particle behavior and the corresponding coating properties.

When the profit scenario of an industry changes, the continuity of some projects can be at risk. The current downturn of the oil and gas industry force managers to take hard decisions about the continuity of projects, resulting in delays, postponements or even the cancellation of forecasted projects. In order to keep with these projects, the rush for cost reduction is a reality and the industry is pushing the involved parties to be aligned with this objective. The Brazilian Pre-Salt region, characterized by ultra-deep waters, is an example of this scenario. Subsea structures represented by flexible risers, which are responsible for the flow assurance of oil, gas and water, are forecasted to have a demand about 4.000 km in the next years. Usually, in these type of applications, lazy-wave configurations are adopted, increasing the costs of the solution with the necessity of the buoyancy modules acquisition. The smaller the buoyancy length is the cheaper the project become, reducing the necessary amount of buoys and the time spent for its installation. These type of solutions can probably carry with it a high level of conservatism, imposed by the use of standardized safety factors, and can potentially be optimized with the adoption of probabilistic approaches within the chain of analysis. The objective of this paper is to assess the possibility of buoyancy length reduction of lazy-wave configurations by using structural reliability methods of analysis. The focus stays on the evaluation of the fatigue of the armour wires located at the bend stiffener region, one of the most critical failure mode for the design of flexible pipes in offshore Brazilian installations. As already discussed in Ref. [1], many variables can influence on such kind of analysis. Based on this previous study, the first six random variables, identified to be the most important ones, are taken to carry out the analysis. The fatigue reliability approach considers four 6” flexible riser configurations: an original lazy-wave, a lazy-wave with less 30% of buoyance length, another one with less 50% of buoyance length and a free-hanging configuration. Failure probabilities and safety factor calibration curves are shown for each presented configuration and compared among themselves. The results indicate the possibility of defining a lazy-wave configuration with smaller buoyancy lengths, reaching 75% of reduction without changing the preconized high safety class at last year of its operational time. Safety factor curves shows to have similar behavior no matter the configuration considered. Structural reliability analysis comes as a potential method to help engineers to have a better understanding on the driving random variables of the problem, giving a support for the actual cost reduction scenario and for better decision-makings based on quantified risk.

A structured technology development process targeting to combine industry and Statoil’s experience has produced an engineering approach for wellhead fatigue analysis that is verified against measurements of load and load effects in actual subsea wells. This paper outlines Statoil’s wellhead fatigue analysis approach, which is based on the new industry standard for wellhead fatigue analyses, DNVGL-RP-E104, ref. [1]. Parts of the methodology has been presented in previous papers. The present paper provides a birds eye view, putting all the pieces together into one coherent methodology. The development and validation of an engineering approach for estimating the bending moment in the surface casing, between the wellhead housing and top of cement, will be presented in detail; this has previously been referred to as load sharing between wellhead and conductor. The wellhead fatigue analysis approach is based on a “coupled model”, which in this case means that the conductor with PY-soil springs are included in the model, compatible with industry recommendations [1], with the following main characteristics: • The lower boundary condition is modelled as a conductor in soil with a bending stiffness equivalent of the well system. • Soil and template interaction is modelled by discrete springs. • The global riser load analysis is run with long crested waves and head sea. Directionality of the waves are handled by reduction factors applied to the damage rate. Alternatively, directionality effects may be included by running multiple wave directions with short crested waves. • Fatigue capacity of the hotspots in the well system is represented by ΔM-N curves generated from detailed FE models. Typically, ΔM-N curves are established for connectors, welds between housings and casings, and for the wellhead housings. The paper includes validation against full scale measurements for a wellhead of preloaded type. In addition, it is demonstrated how the approach can be used for wellheads where the high-pressure housing may rotate inside the low-pressure housing. For this case, the validation is performed against a full 3D solid element model. The analysis approach presented is computationally effective and it will hence enable increased focus on sensitivity analyses. Analysis work is moved from time consuming local- and global analysis, to effective post-processing of data. Uncertainty in the input parameters has been found to significantly influence the fatigue estimate. Understanding these effects is considered vital for making conscious decisions on the fatigue life of a well. See e.g. [8], [10] and [20]. As pointed out already in 1985 by Valka et.al., ref. [5], and also by Milberger et. al., ref. [6], the cement level, and the relative motion of the two housings, represent large uncertainties. Macke et. al, ref. [10], showed that the additional uncertainty due to cement level and friction between housings exceeds the levels covered by the traditional fatigue safety factor of DFF = 10. A method is proposed to handle this in a consistent manner.

The term ‘riser recoil’ refers to the situation when the lower end of a top tensioned riser is released, and the riser is lifted up by the riser tensioner and/or top motion compensator system on the supporting vessel. The elastic energy stored in the riser is then released, and the riser ‘recoils’. This paper focuses on the case of planned disconnect, and builds on ref. [1] which was based on a simplified riser analysis using a rigid body to represent the riser. In the present paper, the methodology has been applied to an elastic riser model in the riser analysis software RIFLEX, from MARINTEK in Trondheim, Norway, which includes axial damping elements required for modeling of the tensioner systems. Completion and Work Over (CWO) risers are unique in the sense that they may be simultaneously connected to both the riser tensioner system and the top motion compensator system of a drilling vessel. A Marine Drilling riser, on the other hand, is only connected to the riser tensioner system. Typically the riser tensioner system has a stroke of ± 8–9 m, whereas the top motion compensator system has only ± 3.5–4 m. It is imperative that the connector is lifted clear of the subsea structure in order to avoid damage to the equipment after the riser has been disconnected. The operating window for planned disconnect of CWO risers is severely limited by the available stroke of the top motion compensator. One of the purposes of the disconnect analysis is to establish the maximum wave height at which there is still sufficient clearance between the connector and the subsea structure after disconnect. Previous experience has shown that this may be the governing limitation for workover operations. The analysis may also establish a maximum tension level, and seastate, to avoid hard stroke-out of the top motion compensator cylinders. This requires an elastic riser model, since a rigid body will yield unphysically large impulse loads in case of stroke-out. The current industry practice is to use a regular wave approach in the analysis. In accordance with ref. [1], the present analysis is performed with irregular wave analyses. The results are documented through a case study of a typical CWO riser system connected to a semi-submersible in typical North Sea environmental conditions. The semi-submersible and the CWO riser system are exposed to irregular waves. Comparison of the resulting allowable wave height shows that using the approach presented here with an elastic riser model yields less conservative results than the previous methodology with a rigid body model. This should be coupled to the findings with the rigid riser model, ref. [1], that irregular waves yield a considerable increase in the operating window, and the resulting operability, compared to a regular wave analysis. Hence, using a regular wave approach combined with a simplified riser model that neglects the flexibility of the riser is expected to yield overly conservative results for the EQDP elevation after disconnect.

To achieve confidence in continuous 20+ year FPSO service without fatigue cracks leading to costly repair offshore or in dry-dock, ExxonMobil has developed a prescriptive Fatigue Methodology Specification (FMS, ref. 5) for new-build FPSOs. An important FMS requirement for turret-moored FPSOs is to determine relative wave headings in non-collinear wind, current and wave environments using a first-principles approach. Based on initial review with FPSO designers, this FMS requirement may pose a significant challenge because appropriately defined met-ocean criteria and efficient analytical design tools are not readily available. To date, FPSO designers typically account for weather-vaning in non-collinear environments by assuming a distribution of relative wave headings based on experience. For example, one assumption is to use 0 degrees (head seas) for 70% of the time and within ±30 degrees off the bow for the remaining 30%. In certain environments, this assumption can lead to a non-conservative fatigue design for hull structural details that are sensitive to beam seas, and an overly conservative fatigue design for details sensitive to head seas. ExxonMobil contracted Moffat & Nichol to develop a time-domain procedure to predict mean FPSO headings by considering wave, wind and current induced loads on the FPSO hull and topsides throughout the FPSO’s 20+ year operational life. A key element of this methodology is a directional representation of met-ocean data, including waves, winds and currents for every 3- or 6-hour sea-state. We have implemented our heading analysis procedure in robust software, which includes processing of the 20+ year met-ocean data in the time domain. Once the FPSO heading time history is known, fatigue lives at critical structural connections are predicted using the spectral fatigue method prescribed in the FMS. To demonstrate the heading methodology and assess its efficiency for project use, an example analysis was performed for an FPSO at a specific geographic location, where relatively strong currents exist. Comparison of predicted FPSO headings and fatigue lives with those using the existing industry practices confirmed the need for a first principles based heading methodology for FPSO fatigue design. The heading and fatigue analysis procedure described here can lead to more accurate, robust fatigue designs for FPSOs in non-collinear environments.

The outcome of the ADORET project, commissioned by the International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement for Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (IEA-RETD), and executed by Mott MacDonald, will be presented. Globally, offshore renewable energy is a burgeoning industry which has the potential to grow rapidly in a number of countries. While tidal and wave energy is at an earlier stage of development with technology demonstrations being pursued in many locations worldwide, the offshore wind industry is already considered mature. The overall objective of the ADORET project is to assist policy makers and project developers by providing them a better understanding of the specifics of offshore renewable energy (ORE) technologies and to give them practical guidelines in how to foster their deployment. The project has an international perspective, focusing on the 11 IEA-RETD members as well as 7 additional countries. In an introductory phase, the project has delivered a brief of the current status of advancement of ORE technologies. It then highlighted the available resources, and gave an overview of policies in place and deployment to date. In a second phase, the economics and financing of ORE projects have been examined. The respective maturity levels of technologies have been discussed, as well as capital and operational costs structures. An analysis of commercial and technical risks, and of their impact on the financing costs, has been performed. Mitigation measures can reduce these to an acceptable level. The respective merits and constraints associated to the main financing options available to ORE projects will be presented. An in-depth review of technical and non-technical barriers and challenges to the deployment of ORE technologies has been performed and will be presented. Technical barriers covered included technology and design optimisation, reliability, installation and decommissioning, operation and maintenance, grid connection and integration. Non-technical barriers investigated included environmental, safety, regulatory and licensing, competing uses, skills, supply chain and infrastructures, and financial issues. Examples of country and technology specific barriers are highlighted. In the final part the project, a detailed review of policies in place to promote ORE technologies deployment and of their effectiveness has been performed. Mitigation measures to barriers previously identified are also presented. Based on this analysis, a generic model policy framework is proposed, to be used as a possible template by policy makers in interested countries. Guidelines for project design and development are presented. The full version of the ADORET report and its appendices are shortly to be made available to download at www.iea-retd.org.

Abstract An experimental investigation of the effect of inlet flow conditions and improved geometries on the performance of modern axial exhaust diffusers of gas turbines has been completed. As the first of a two-part series, this article concentrates on characterizing diffuser sensitivity to parametric variations in internal geometry and inlet flow conditions. Full-factorial experiments were carried out on five parameters including the inlet Mach distribution, shape of the support struts, shape of the oil-drain strut, diffuser hade angle, and the hubcap configuration. To enable an efficient sweep of the design space, experiments were performed in this initial study at a down-scaled turbine exit Reynolds number (ReH roughly 3% of the value for an H-class diffuser) and at a full-scale turbine exit Mach number. The study was accomplished in a continuous, cold-flow wind tunnel circuit, and tailored distributions of Mach number, swirl velocity, and radial velocity derived from on-design conditions of an industry diffuser were generated. Measurements included 5-hole probe traverses at planes of interest. Diffuser performance was most sensitive to the inlet Mach distribution with losses of 0.081 points of pressure recovery due to a nonuniform Mach distribution with higher velocity near the hub versus a uniform one. Detailed comparisons of axial flow variation for a top-performing configuration versus related configurations shed physical insight regarding the evolution of kinetic energy distortion into viscous loss in the wake, as well as highlight the benefit of uniform inlet profiles in practice despite the lower theoretical recovery of such cases. The results presented here isolate the inlet flow distribution as a parameter of high interest for further study which is carried out for both on- and off-design conditions in the companion article [1].

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.