Academic literature on the topic 'Regional central-place'

Analyses of archaeological data from the La Entrada region in northwestern Honduras demonstrate that central-place theory applies to the regional settlement system during the Late Classic period. The configuration of the regional central-place system appears to have been oriented to the local exchange of subsistence goods and to the minimization of energy expenditure in their movement. The distribution patterns of obsidian artifacts vary significantly among the hypothetical sustaining areas of centers, corroborating the reconstruction of a central-place system. This also suggests that political factors affected the circulation of certain materials and that basic economic spatial units in Classic Maya society were relatively small.

On the problematic workshop “The central libraries of the region today. What should become libraries of the future?”, taken place at the Gorky Ryazan Regional Universal Scientific Library under the support of the Section of central libraries of constituent entities of the Russian Federation of the Russian Library Association and the Committee on Culture and Tourism of the Ryazan Region, 28-30 March 2012.

Abstract There is an emerging consensus that place leadership is the missing piece in the local and regional development puzzle. In this context, leadership is a hidden form of agency, shadowed by such visible forms of influence as structures and formal institutions, as well as development programs and plans. This article argues that one of the most central issues in a study of place leadership is to analyse the relationships between governance, power and place leadership. The governance arrangements are undoubtedly important, as they dictate the kind of resources and positions provided to regional development work, and thus they also enable, as well as constrain, the many efforts of regional champions to exercise power in complex development processes. It is argued here that revealing how place leadership is enacted in different places and times would allow us to flesh out novel aspects about the eternal questions of how and why some places are able to adapt strategically to ever-changing social, economic and environmental circumstances while others fail to do so. Additionally, deeper investigations of place leadership would hopefully allow us to provide policymakers and practitioners with added insight on the ways to make regional development policies and practices not only more strategic but also effective. This paper elaborates the conceptual link between place leadership, governance and power.

The aim of this paper is to study the power dynamics that unfold as part of communicative processes in place marketing collaboration, as exemplified in the EU’s developed but peripheral regional settings. The paper applies positioning theory to analyse how power dynamics are constructed through the distribution of rights and duties between participating stakeholders in two regional-level place marketing projects carried out in Eastern Finland between 2011 and 2014. The analysis of 24 interviews reveals story lines that unfold as part of a collaborative process between steering group representatives. Focus is given to the attribution of rights and duties to the stakeholders within these story lines, and the power dynamics that manifest as a result. Two central story lines are identified. In the formal story line positioning is related to the distribution of funding, regional scope of the projects, and the formal roles of stakeholders. In the spatial story line positioning concerned the dominance of regional centres and the spatial proximity between stakeholders. While the paper underlines the potential of positioning theory for understanding power dynamics in place marketing contexts, the findings are limited to specific geographical and institutional contexts. However, the paper presents a novel approach to the analysis of power dynamics in place marketing and branding by bringing attention to the normative aspects of power in communicative processes. This helps to identify and address the tension caused by power dynamics in place marketing and branding collaborations, which has been identified as a central challenge in recent literature.

Likethe flow of the Nile, the policy-making environment of ruling élites in Eastern Africa has remained remarkably unaltered over the years. New and old leaderships alike confront the perennial questions of building political authority and legitimacy on fragile socio-economic bases, in addition to finding appropriate modes of inter-state relationships. Uganda has occupied a central place in this structure as a participant in regional economic and political interactions, and since the 1970s as the primary source of instability.

The relationship between growing trade interdependence and the reduction of militarised inter-state conflict is one of the central theoretical tenets in neo-liberal institutionalism. This tenet, under various theoretical guises, is evaluated critically in this article. Using two illustrative examples, it is argued here that under certain specific conditions, trade interdependence is unlikely to occur and therefore the expected palliative effect of trade on militarised inter-state conflict cannot take place.

Economic Geography is a sub-branch of geography that deals with issues such as the location, place, economic activities, human activities, and how these factors are interlinked to help understand the distribution of organizations and activities. This field can be further broken down to evaluate the factors on an individual level. Space or location analysis is where local growth models are treated as an economic resource that provides a strategic advantage for the firms located in them. Therefore, it is trivial to emphasize the importance of location for economic activity; however, only recently, it has been given due considerations by economic theory. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the physical dimensions of Uzbekistan have improved the economy in recent times compared to the Soviet era and to investigate the central place theory about Mahallas. The methodology utilized for this paper was country-specific research and existing studies on space and location analysis. The paper also focuses on evaluating the renowned Central Place theory by Walter Christaller and its application using Uzbekistan as a case. This is a conceptual paper; therefore, literature review and recommendations based on previous studies will be the prime methodology. The findings based on extensive research confirm that there has been incremental growth in space and location analysis. It was also found that Uzbekistan has successfully utilized its space and territories for economic development. Also, the Central Place theory was applied in an interesting manner to Mahallas in Uzbekistan. Finally, the paper also highlights the importance of technological advancement and transportation to the success of economic development. This study follows a conceptual approach. Therefore, the limitation is to utilize the theories conducted by other researchers and apply them to Uzbekistan. Another practical limitation is that the researchers should have extensive knowledge about the country-specific in this case, Uzbekistan. Future studies can be done on conducting quantitative research using some of the empirical models from economic geography. This research paper contributes to the existing body of research on locational analysis and regional studies as well as economic development. There has been limited research conducted on economic development of Uzbekistan; a growing economy post-soviet era, and therefore, it is important to evaluate the significant contribution.

Sudbury serves as a relevant historical case study of a settlement that has undergone several transformations since its inception as a fledgling village in the latter part of the nineteenth century. Though changes of this kind have been frequent in Ontario, they have not normally happened to hinterland resource communities. This article suggests that Sudbury is unique in this regard, having evolved through five distinct stages: (I) a railway company village, (2) a colonial-frontier mining town and city, (3) a regional central-place, (4) a declining metropolis, and (5) a nearly selfsustaining community. The constant restructuring of Sudbury's society and economic base has been caused by a variety of external and internal forces, among which the "human dynamic" has been vital and ever present. The paper suggests that under certain circumstances a resource community can progress from a staples and boom-bust existence to a more sustainable urban economy based on local and regional influences.

The recurring debate on regional administration and what responsibilities it should have has in a Swedish context been discussed in media and committees over the years. Little has been discussed around the possibilities of strengthening pre-existing interregional cooperation even though there is a scholarly thought of soft space as a definition to describe these types of cooperation and how they might evolve.   A case study has been performed on the interregional health care agency Södra Sjukvårdsregionen (SSR) which is one of six Swedish regional health care agencies (sjukvårdsregioner). SSR serves the regions Scania, Blekinge, Kronoberg and southern Halland and was constituted in 1960 based on central place theory to resolve spatial planning problems in the context of regional public health.   In the analytical context of soft space and central place theory, results have been provided by interviewing representatives working within SSR and examining documents. SSR has been defined as a structure of governance which consists of formal government actors.    The results indicate that the concept of soft space as described in literature supports spatial planning of specialized regional health care. However, the concept of soft space has little impact on spatial planning with respect to comprehensive planning (Översiktsplan) as illustrated by documentation from Västra Sjukvårdsregionen and the case of Norra Älvsborgs Länssjukhus (NÄL).
Debatten om svenska regionindelningar och vilken rådighet regionerna borde ha har diskuterats i medier och statliga utredningar genom åren. Däremot har möjligheterna att stärka befintliga interregionala samarbeten diskuterats mycket lite, även om det finns ett vetenskapligt underlag för soft space som ett samlande begrepp för att beskriva dessa typer av samarbeten och hur de vidareutvecklas. En fallstudie har genomförts på Södra Sjukvårdsregionen (SSR), som är en av Sveriges sex sjukvårdsregioner. SSR betjänar regionerna Skåne, Blekinge, Kronoberg och södra Halland och bildades 1960 baserat på centralortsteorin som ett sätt att lösa problem med fysisk planering i samband med regional sjuk- och hälsovård. Representanter som arbetar inom ramen för SSR:s verksamhet har intervjuats och dokument har granskats i termer av soft space och centralortsteorin. SSR har definierats som en struktur som bereder ärenden rörande fysisk planering som är de ingående regionernas rådighet. Resultaten indikerar att konceptet soft space som beskrivs i litteraturen stöder fysisk planering av specialiserad regional hälsovård. Konceptet soft space har dock liten inverkan på fysisk planering av omfattande skala (Översiktsplan), vilket belyses av dokumentationen från Västra Sjukvårdsregionen och fallet med Norra Älvsborgs Länssjukhus (NÄL).

  Syftet med uppsatsen är att studera möjlig utveckling av kommunerna och tätorterna i Jönköpings, Kalmar och Östergötlands län fram till 2020, med utblickar mot framtiden. Bakgrunden till uppsatsen är de diskussioner som förs i Sverige kring nya regionkommuner, där sammanslagningar av befintliga län ska ske. I denna process är Östra Götland ett förslag för de tre länen och därför är det av intresse att studera hur dessa kan utvecklas i framtiden.

För denna analys har tidsgeografiska utgångspunkter kombinerats med Christallers centralortsteori för att skapa ett tredimensionellt tillgänglighetslandskap. Detta har sedan legat som en viktig förklaringsgrund för hur tätorter utvecklas. Resultatet av uppsatsen visar att de som lyckats locka till sig nya invånare kan delas upp i huvudsak i tre grupper; pendelorter med goda kommunikationer till andra orter, förorter med kort avstånd till regioncentra eller residensstäder (undantaget Östergötland där både Linköping och Norrköping är tillväxtorter). För de orter som inte lyckats utmärks dessa av att de ofta saknar goda kommunikationer och/eller befinner sig i en näringsomvandling, från dominerande basindustri till ett mer tjänstebaserat näringsliv. Framtidens vinnare blir troligen samma som idag och för den studerade regionen får Jönköping anses vara den största vinnaren, även om de andra länscentrana, Kalmar och Linköpipng/Norrköping, också är vinnare. Vissa frågetecken kring hur Norrköping klarar konkurrensen med Jönköping finns, på samma sätt som mellan Kalmar och Växjö, då en stark tillväxt i en ort kan få andra orter att stå tillbaka.

  The purpose of the paper is to study the possible development of municipalities and urban areas in the county of Jönköping, Kalmar and Östergötland to 2020, with glimpses into the future. The background to the paper are discussions taking place in Sweden on a new regional division, where a merge of existing counties are about to happen. In this process is the forming of Eastern Götaland a proposal for the three counties and it is therefore of interest to study how these may evolve in the future.

For this analysis, time-geographical bases combined with Christaller central place theory are used to create a three-dimensional landscape of accessibility. This has then been used as an starting point in the discussions about how urban areas evolve. The results of the paper shows that those who succeeded in attracting new residents can be divided mainly into three groups; commuter towns with good transport links to other places, suburbs whit short distances to a regional center or provincial capitals (except in Östergötland, where both Linköping and Norrköping are growth centers). For those which have not been able to this has often a lack of good communications and/or are in a business transformation, from primary industry to a more service-based economy. Tomorrow's winner will likely be the same as today, and in the studied region Jönköping may be considered as the biggest winner, though the other county towns, Kalmar and Linköping/Norrköping, also are winners. There are some uncertainties about how Norrköping stands in the competition with Jönköping, just as between Kalmar and Växjö,. A strong growth in one urban area may cause that the growth in other areas are reduced.

碩士
中國文化大學
建築及都市計劃研究所碩士在職專班
95
The city-countryside hierarchy describes the hierarchy of inter-dependence that appears between city centers, town centers and village centers after the development of social economic activities. This is because they all have distinct differences in terms of size, function and facilities. The more effective the services of a central city are, the greater its influence is on its surrounding hinterlands. The resultant distribution of space and specializations between cities, townships and villages then falls into a natural order. This city-countryside hierarchy has a major effect on the development of policies governing population distribution, industrial zoning, resource allocation and urban development. In the Yilan region (Lanyang Plain) the geography is amenable to the creation of a natural order in terms of the environment and humanities. This makes it suitable for a complete examination of the city-countryside hierarchy. In this study, the methodology involved the review of past literature, establishing of a theoretical framework and the collation of relevant data including land prices, population statistics and business establishments. Empirical analysis was carried out using multi-variable statistics and the results showed that the distribution of the city-countryside hierarchy in the Yilan region conformed to the Central Place System. This paper consists of 5 chapters and 17 sections as described below: Chapter 1 looks at the study’s background, motivations and objectives. The scope, content and constraints for the study was set out while the research framework for this study was established using the paper’s research methodology, methods and process. Chapter 2 provides a review of the past literature. In this study, the Central Place Theory was examined in detail as it was used as the theoretical and empirical basis. This included the definition, revision and extension of the Central Place Theory as well as the validation and application of Central Place Theory. This study pointed out that the basic purpose of cities is to provide services to its hinterlands. Since the trade and service industries can be divided into many different orders, each city can therefore be classified into different order depending on the order of the trade and service industries it provides. The differences in order places them at different levels in the hierarchy and this was used to explain the meaning of the city-countryside hierarchy. Chapter 3 establishes the research framework of the study. The research concept developed from an examination of the Central Place Theory was extended to look at the development and historical changes in the Central Place System of the Yilan region. By looking at urban system indicators, principles and applications, the indicators were collated to establish the structure of the city-countryside hierarchy in the Yilan region. Empirical proof for the city-countryside hierarchy in the Yilan region is provided in Chapter 4. Using the factor analysis and cluster analysis methods in the multiple variable statistical method, the study verified that the region north of the Yilan River has the Yilan City as its central city while the region south of the Yilan River has the Luodong Township as its central city. These central cities provided their surrounding townships with commercial services, forming Central Place Systems. These results were then used to examine the services and features of the Central Places in the Yilan region, the relationship between the Central Places as well as the factors that affected the distribution of the city-countryside hierarchy in the Yilan region. Chapter 5 consists of the conclusions and recommendations. The conclusions and recommendations proposed in this study will hopefully provide a useful reference for planning and investment purposes.

碩士
國立高雄師範大學
地理學系
103
The rapid population growth in Northern Taiwan has been increasingly significant greater than other part of Taiwan. Among the urban areas in the region, Taoyuan is the newly declared municipality with the highest net social population growth rate. This study assumes urban expansion in Taoyuan affects at all levels, from the whole metropolitan area to local community development. This space reconstruction brings tremendous impact to marketing, traffic and administrative functions of nearby traditional central place towns. This research uses Daxi as a study case, then look into its historical population data, development of built-up area, and in depth interviews. The collected information will be analyzed to support the idea of internal developing tracks of traditional central place towns under urban expansion in Taiwan. Daxi is one of the major settlements where situate in the transition zone of foothills and plains. Historically, Daxi is the major transport hub in southern Taoyuan. By its natural surroundings, Daxi can be divided into East Daxi and West Daxi by Dahan Creek. East Daxi has been the core area since Qing dynasty, but lately its importance seems to be replaced by West Daxi. Evidences collected from historical population record and urban planning imply that West Daxi is becoming the new core area since 1990s. A possible explanation is that improvement on transportation led to higher total population and the population growth rate. Thus, contributes to a more homogeneous built-up area in West Daxi.

This book is about the role of lawyers in the movement to challenge economic inequality in one of America’s most unequal cities: Los Angeles. Covering a transformative period of city history—from the 1992 riots to the 2008 recession—the book examines how law has been used, and what it has achieved, in the struggle to make Los Angeles a more equal place. The backdrop is the dramatic growth of low-wage work powered by global outsourcing, declining unionism, increasing labor contingency, and surging immigration. The book’s narrative focus is on five pivotal campaigns in which lawyers allied with the city’s dynamic labor, immigrant rights, and environmental movements mobilize law to transform key sectors of the regional economy. These campaigns, analyzed through in-depth case studies, reveal how law has shaped low-wage work in Los Angeles—and at times provided a potent weapon to contest it. Drawing upon archival research, extensive interviews with key actors, and a review of court files, this book explores the role of lawyers in defining the city as a space for redefining work. Challenging critical accounts of lawyers in social movements, its central claim is that by advancing an innovative model of legal mobilization, the L.A. campaigns have achieved meaningful regulatory reform, while strengthening the position of workers in the field of local politics. Through multidimensional advocacy to promote worker organizing, lawyers and activists have succeeded in converting policy change into greater interest group power—forging a new model of progressive city-building for the twenty-first century.

Anaesthesia induces changes in many organ systems within the body, though clearly none more so than the central nervous system. The physiology of the normal central nervous system is complex and the addition of chronic pathology and polypharmacy creates a significant challenge for the anaesthetist. This chapter demonstrates a common approach for the anaesthetist and specific considerations for a wide range of neurological conditions. Detailed preoperative assessment is essential to gain understanding of the current symptomatology and neurological deficit, including at times restrictions on movement and position. Some conditions may pose challenges relating to communication, capacity, and consent. As part of the consent process, patients may worry that an anaesthetic may aggravate or worsen their neurological disease. There is little evidence to support this understandable concern; however, the risks and benefits must be considered on an individual patient basis. The conduct of anaesthesia may involve a preference for general or regional anaesthesia and requires careful consideration of the pharmacological and physiological impact on the patient and their disease. Interactions between regular medications and anaesthetic drugs are common. Chronically denervated muscle may induce hyperkalaemia after administration of succinylcholine. Other patients may have an altered response to non-depolarizing agents, such as those suffering from myasthenia gravis. The most common neurological condition encountered is epilepsy. This requires consideration of the patient’s antiepileptic drugs, often relating to hepatic enzyme induction or less commonly inhibition and competition for protein binding, and the effect of the anaesthetic technique and drugs on the patient’s seizure risk. Postoperative care may need to take place in a high dependency unit, especially in those with limited preoperative reserve or markers of frailty, and where the gastrointestinal tract has been compromised, alternative routes of drug delivery need to be considered. Overall, patients with chronic neurological conditions require careful assessment and preparation, a considered technique with attention to detail, and often higher levels of care during their immediate postoperative period.

This chapter tells the story of the revival of interest in Karelian music in the Finnish-Russian border region of Karelia after the Cold War. During this tense time, Karelians had been subjected to territorial divisions and harsh assimilation policies. With Perestroika came new stores of Karelian culture under the influence of developments taking place across the Nordic and Baltic regions. This was a scenario for Karelians in both countries to express their sense of belonging in new ways, and music once again became a medium for this. The author draws on fieldwork in the Karelian town of Petrozavodsk since 1992 and uses two bands from there as focal points for exploring consciousness in the region and beyond in wider international trajectories in Central Europe, Scandinavia, and the United States.

This book offers a fresh perspective on the history of Germany by investigating the origins and impact of the ‘communications revolution’ that transformed state and society during the nineteenth century. It focuses upon the period 1830–80, exploring the interactions between the many different actors who developed, administered, and used one of the most important technologies of the period—the electric telegraph. Drawing upon evidence from Prussia, Bavaria, Bremen, and a number of towns across Central Europe, it reveals the channels through which knowledge circulated across the region, stimulating both collaboration and confrontation between the scientists, technicians, businessmen, and bureaucrats involved in bringing the telegraph to life. It highlights the technology’s impact upon the conduct of trade, finance, news distribution, and government in the tumultuous decades that witnessed the 1848 revolutions, the wars of unification, and the establishment of the Kaiserreich in 1871. Following the telegraph lines themselves, it weaves together the changes which took place at a local, regional, national, and eventually global level, revisiting the technology’s impact upon concepts of space and time, and highlighting the importance of this period in laying the foundations for Germany’s experience of a profoundly ambiguous, networked modernity.

This book explores the ways in which postwar Asian cinema was shaped by transnational collaborations and competitions between newly independent and colonial states at the height of Cold War politics. The book adopts a simultaneously global and regional approach when analyzing the region's film cultures and industries. New economic conditions in the Asian region and shared postwar experiences among the early cinema entrepreneurs were influenced by Cold War politics, US cultural diplomacy, and intensified cultural flows during the 1950s and 1960s. The book reconstructs Asian film history in light of the international relationships forged, broken, and re-established as the influence of the non-aligned movement grew across the Cold War. The book elucidates how motion picture executives, creative personnel, policy makers, and intellectuals in East and Southeast Asia aspired to industrialize their Hollywood-inspired system in order to expand the market and raise the competitiveness of their cultural products. They did this by forming the Federation of Motion Picture Producers in Asia, co-hosting the Asian Film Festival, and co-producing films. The book demonstrates that the emergence of the first intensive postwar film producers' network in Asia was, in large part, the offspring of Cold War cultural politics and the product of American hegemony. Film festivals that took place in cities as diverse as Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kuala Lumpur were annual showcases of cinematic talent as well as opportunities for the Central Intelligence Agency to establish and maintain cultural, political, and institutional linkages between the United States and Asia during the Cold War. This book reanimates this almost-forgotten history of cinema and the film industry in Asia.

The differences between town and country are defined, and their changing fortunes compared from the tenth to the sixteenth centuries. Urban characteristics can be identified through dwellings, high-status buildings, and life styles. Hierarchies of towns, and the influence on the countryside of the various categories of town, can be analysed using the concepts of umland and hinterland, central place and spheres of influence, and von Thunen’s zones of land use around the city. Evidence of interactions between town and country come from the distribution of pottery, stone used for building and artefacts, and supplies of food. Agriculture, including the choice of crops and livestock, was influenced by the towns. Rural industry was not necessarily subordinated to the urban economy, but towns provided goods, services, and culture to country dwellers. There were pronounced regional differences in the degree of urbanization, and the interaction between town and country.

This volume is the first to survey village institutions in Egypt during the first eight centuries AD, from the beginning of Roman rule to the early Arab period. Despite the many studies of society and administration in Ptolemaic and Roman Egypt, there are no general studies of village institutions or communities in any one period, let alone in a long-term perspective, or integrated investigation of their relationship to the wider state. This volume, which represents a first response to fill this gap in the current scholarship, aims to demonstrate that Egypt is a particularly productive place to develop study of this subject because the rich documentary evidence of the papyri, a large majority of which comes from village sites, permits us both to study specific topics in detail by place and time, as the eleven papers of this volume do, and also to make comparisons across a long chronological period. These comparisons across time are beneficial because they raise questions about changing patterns and perspectives of the surviving documents, which may skew interpretation, and enable us to outline what seem to emerge as recurrent issues in the power-relationships between central and regional authorities and the rural population, as well as some preliminary indications of the trends in those developments across our period.

The complexity of China’s rise is well expressed in its aspiration for “a new model of major power relations,” which simultaneously seeks a peaceful coexistence with the United States and a new Asian order with a strong China back in its traditional, central place. Japan is situated at the nexus of this dual nature of China’s rise. This is a natural extension of Deng Xiaoping’s strategy, which used courageous open-door and reform policies and the emphasis on the modern history of humiliation as new sources of legitimacy and unity. Recently, amid a worsening vicious cycle compounded by the phenomenon of a “normalizing” Japan and the aggravation of Chinese nationalism, the “Senkaku/Diaoyu” dispute has come to signify a virtual clash of paradigms over preferred regional orders. In the coming years, a strategy of cooperation with China’s neighbors is needed for Japan with a long-term view of coexisting peacefully with China.

AbstractThe Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), while primarily a security organisation, has always included economic and human baskets or dimensions. Currently, the Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental Activities operates in four main areas: (1) good governance and anti-corruption, (2) money laundering and financing of terrorism, (3) transport, trade and border-crossing facilitation, and (4) labour migration. This chapter addresses developments in Central Asia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union that are relevant to the third area of OSCE operations. The chapter’s focus is on the potential for the landlocked Central Asian countries to become land-linked, using improved transport connections between East Asia and Europe to promote economic development through export diversification and growth. Rail services across Central Asia improved considerably during the 2010s. They have been resilient, despite strained political relations between Russia and the EU since 2014, and rail traffic between Europe and China continued to increase in 2020 despite the shock of COVID-19. Further infrastructure improvements are promised under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, the expanded network has been little used by Central Asian producers to create new international trade, and the improved infrastructure represents a potential opportunity rather than a past benefit. If the Central Asian economies are successful in taking advantage of the opportunity, it will stimulate their trade across the Eurasian region and help economic diversification. The main determinant of success will be national policies and national economic development. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the role of multilateral institutions and, in particular, the prospects for OSCE collaboration with existing fora to promote cooperation and economic development in Central Asia.

AbstractThis chapter analyses the establishment and expansion of antiracist feminism in the last decade throughout the Nordic region, with new groups, media sites, and public events organised, especially in the large cities. I examine antiracist feminist and queer of colour activism in which the main or sole actors belong to groups racialised as non-white or “others” in Nordic societies. A fundamental argument developed in the chapter is the central role and potential of these emerging social movements to reconfigure political agendas and tackling of pressing societal issues, due to their capacity to overlap and connect the borders of antiracist, feminist, and (to some extent) class-based politics. The chapter further argues for the usefulness of theorising the neoliberal turn of racial capitalism as the societal condition in which feminist activism takes place.

Over the past decade, the societies that encompass Russia, Central Eurasia, and East Europe have experienced profound and radical change. Today, the region is making uneven progress toward democratic modes of government and market-oriented economies. The fluid dynamics of change within the region make it one of the most exciting and rewarding areas of research within geography. Across Russia, Central Eurasia, and East Europe vital lessons can be learned about the contextual nature of political and economic transition. At the same time, crucial insights can be obtained into the more universal process of regional transformation and the social reconstruction of place identity. This region is a laboratory for testing the relevancy of geographic research and theory for a post-socialist world. This chapter reviews the major changes in the practice and orientation of geographic research in the region since the collapse of state-socialism (see Ch. 39, Asian Geography, for further information on the Central Asian countries). This chapter comments on the methodological, conceptual, and topical evolution of this area-specialty over the last decade. It concludes by contemplating the possible directions of future geographic research in the region. Prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991, the societies of Russia, Central Eurasia, and East Europe were typically defined in political and economic terms as a unified region, known as the Soviet bloc. While national and cultural differences across the Soviet bloc were not ignored, they were treated as less significant than the uniform pattern of planned economies and communist regimes that governed the region. The region was further unified through the political and economic primacy of Moscow, where decisions were made that directly impacted the states throughout Russia, Central Eurasia, and East Europe. In the Soviet era, geographic research in the region focused largely on strategic questions relating to the efficiency, efficacy, and future trajectory of the state-socialist model of economic and political development. The topics explored by geographers ranged from issues of agricultural production to urban structure to regional economic investment to domestic and international migration.

This chapter looks at the ritual practices at Naranjo in the central highlands of Guatemala and the relationship of these practices to Kaminaljuyu and its neighbors during the Middle Preclassic (800-400 B.C.). It uses the findings of the Naranjo investigations as a reference point, focusing on ritual practices that involved landscape and sacred geography, the use of monuments, and dedication rites for constructions. Naranjo is a critical place in the development of social complexity that dominated the Maya highlands during the Middle Preclassic. It is likely Naranjo served as a regional pilgrimage center allowing Middle Preclassic society to highlight cohesion between the sites of the region.

This chapter examines the protection of cultural heritage in Europe. Within Europe, the Council of Europe (CoE) and the European Union (EU) have played a central role in supporting, coordinating, and supplementing domestic initiatives in the cultural field. Both organizations arose out of the devastation of the two world wars and the determination of key European leaders to put in place systems of cooperation that would prevent further armed conflict, yet only one had an explicit cultural remit. This chapter explores the evolving structures and powers of the two institutions and the initiatives they have taken to preserve and enhance cultural heritage. Though the EU is an increasingly confident player in the cultural field at both international and European levels, the CoE’s wider membership and extensive experience means that it is likely to play a pivotal role in shaping cultural policy at the regional level well into the future.

There has always been technical change since the beginning of mankind, and its importance continues in the present age. These days, the technology levels of these countries determine their competitive advantage within the international market. During the course of this paper, technical change in Central Eurasian countries will be examined. In the first part of the study, technology and innovation will be examined theoretically. The economies of the Central Eurasian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan will be introduced in the second section of the paper. Following this, technical change in the countries of Central Eurasia will be scrutinised under three groups. These are namely technological research and development, innovation and adaptation of technology. Technical change will be analyzed through data on innovation and technology, as published by the United Nations Development Programme in their "Human Development Report 2013". During the final section of this paper, comparisons will be made between the countries of Central Eurasia and Turkey and other regions in the world according to the level of technical changes which have been determined to have taken place in the Central Eurasia region. The advantages of preparing joint regional development plans including the technological development of the Central Eurasian countries will be discussed as a result of this comparison.

We discuss the uniqueness of natural and geographical conditions for tourism in the Sheki-Zagatala region of Azerbaijan In this article. The role and place of tourism in the development of the national economy are considered, the tourist potential of the region is characterized, the ways of tourism development are determined. The need to develop a new strategy for the development of urban planning organization and improving the design of recreation and tourism complexes is noted. It is analyzed the opening of a new corridor linking Nakhichevan with the western regions of Azerbaijan and, accordingly, Turkey with Central Asia, which will significantly affect regional development, including opening up wide opportunities for the development of tourism in the region.

European Union Commission declared its vision on European Energy Association EEA including comprehensive changes on energy strategy about energy cooperation and climate changes, as well as conversion and its multi-dimensional cooperation objectives with its report European Commission, Energy Union Package, COM 2015-80. Current cost of energy to the European Union damages its competitiveness in the international market due to its high dependence on energy supply. EU will play an active role in the international energy market with EEA on both energy dependence and on energy supply security. Only four countries are listed on the EEA vision document among alternative producers, cooperation with transit countries and strategic partners: Algeria, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Turkey. Due to its geo-strategic location Turkey is the most affordable and reliable energy transit route between Central Asia and Europe. In this study Turkey’s place as a strategic transit country and its partnership in TAP/TANAP projects as well as its possibility to become a regional energy hub and an oil corridor in the East-West route will be discussed in detail as it is stated in EEA vision document. In this context, possibilities, challenges and related macro-economic policies will be evaluated.

Microscale processes of dust distribution in the city of Tbilisi with a very complex topography are modeled using a 3D regional model of atmospheric processes and numerical integration of the transport-diffusion equation of the impurity. The Terrain-following coordinate system is used to take into account the influence of a very complex relief on the process of atmospheric pollution. Modeling is carried out using horizontal grid steps of 300 m and 400 m along latitude and longitude, respectively. The cases of the stationary background eastern and western weak winds are considered. In the model, motor transport is considered as a nonstationary source of pollution from which dust is emitted into the atmosphere. Modelling of dust micro-scale diffusion process showed that the city air pollution depends on spatial distribution of the main sources of city pollution, i.e. on vehicle traffic intensity, as well as on spatial distribution of highways, and micro-orography of city and surrounding territories. It is shown that the dust pollution level in the surface layer of the atmosphere is minimal at 6 a.m. Ground-level concentration rapidly grows with increase of vehicle traffic intensity and by 12 a.m. reaches maximum allowable concentration (MAC = 0.5 mg/m3) in the vicinity of central city mains. From 12 a.m. to 9 p.m. maximum dust concentration values are within the limits of 0.9-1.2 MAC. In the mentioned time interval formation of the highly dusty zones, and slow growth of their areas and value of ground-level concentrations take place. These zones are located in both central and peripheral parts of the city. Their disposition and area sizes depend on spatial distribution of local wind generated under action of complex terrain, as well as on the processes of turbulent and advective dust transfer. From 9 to 12 p.m. reduction of dust pollution and ground-level concentration takes place. After the midnight city dust pollution process continues quasi-periodically. As result of the analysis of vertical distribution of dust concentration is obtained that a basic dust mass emitted into the atmosphere is located in the 100 m surface layer. Concentration value in the upper part of this layer reaches 0.8 MAC and rapidly decreases with altitude increase.

The key idea of the well-being concept strives to answer the question about how well the needs of people in a society are met in different spheres of social life - the physical, economic, social, educational, environmental, emotional, and spiritual – as well as individuals’ evaluations of their own lives and the way that their society operates (Gilbert, Colley, Roberts, 2016). One of the possible suggestions for answering the question: “How well are the needs of people in a society met?” could be the monitoring of citizen’s satisfaction with public services while applying a standardized questionnaire for population covering 193 primary indicators (health, social security, culture, public transport, utilities, environment, recreation and sport, public communication, education, etc). Even 23 indicators are about education that makes educational services a considerable part of all social service system. As the researchers aimed to analyze satisfaction of rural population with public services stressing the education issue, indicators about education dominated in the survey. The data were collected in 2016 - 2017 in 2 regional municipalities: municipalities: Jonava and Radviliskis (N=2368). The results of the analysis demonstrate that rural residents' satisfaction with formal general education services is relatively high. The only negative exception is the "the placement of a child in a pre-school institution based on the place of residence". Furthermore, rural residents poorly evaluated educational services that are related to non-formal education, adult education, the education of children with disabilities, child safety, meaningful xtracurricular activities of children and young people during all day, preventive programs. These major conclusions let the researchers state that local self-governmental institutions are not capable to cope with the quality challenges of some educational services without special intervention policy of the central government and the EU responsible structural units. A negative impact is also reinforced by a rapidly deteriorating demographic situation in Lithuanian rural areas.

Education in regional geography in Poland takes place at public schools from the earliest educational stages and is compulsory until young people reach the age of adulthood. Reforms of the Polish education system, resulting in changes in the core curriculum of general education, likewise resulted in changes in the concept of education in the field of regional geography. The subject of the authors’ article is education in regional geography in the Polish education system at various educational stages. The authors’ analysis has two research goals. The first concerns changes in the education of regional geography at Polish schools; here the analysis and evaluation of the current content of education in the field of regional geography are offered. The second one is the study of the model of regional geography education in geographical studies in Poland on the example of the geographyat the Pedagogical University of Cracow. Although elements of education about one’s own region already appear in a kindergarten, they are most strongly implemented at a primary school in the form of educational paths, e.g. “Regional education – cultural heritage in the region”, and at a lower-secondary school (gymnasium) during geography classes. Owing to the current education reform, liquidating gymnasium (a lower secondary school level) and re-introducing the division of public schools into an 8-year primary school and a longer secondary school, the concept of education in regional education has inevitably changed. Currently, it is implemented in accordance with a multidisciplinary model of education consisting in weaving the content of regional education into the core curricula of various school subjects, and thus building the image of the whole region by means of viewing from different perspectives and inevitable cooperation of teachers of diverse subjects. Invariably, however, content in the field of regional geography is carried out at a primary and secondary school during geography classes. At university level, selected students – in geographical studies – receive a regional geography training. As an appropriate example one can offer A. Świętek’s original classes in “Regional Education” for geography students of a teaching specialty consisting of students designing and completing an educational trail in the area of Nowa Huta in Cracow.

Pipeline companies face a difficult task in cost-effectively managing pipeline maintenance activities. Complexity is introduced due to geographical expanse, remote locations, access to qualified contractors and the desire to hire locally, and contract management of available suppliers. Pipeline companies have traditionally provided maintenance activities through in-house resourcing, or management of a multitude of available contractors. With increasing efforts to focus in-house resources on core pipeline operations, there has been a corresponding shift in moving noncore maintenance activities to outside providers. This has introduced an increase in administration costs associated with supplier qualification activities, document management and payment processing. TransCanada PipeLines Limited has developed a model where core skills have been retained to perform critical activities in-house and less essential services have been contracted out, along with the management of the subcontracts. This model relies on a central dispatch service along with a large base of subcontractors strategically located along our pipeline system to provide these services. The process involves two basic steps — managing subcontractors and performing work. Managing subcontractors is the key to the process. This part of the process proactively provides TransCanada with qualified subcontractors at the right place, the right time and for the best price. This paper will discuss the alliance model we’ve implemented in conjunction with Ledcor Industrial Maintenance Ltd. for contracted services and how this arrangement is crucial to our success in managing maintenance activities cost effectively. We will describe the model, how it was developed and implemented, how it works and some of the benefits that make it a successful contribution to regional operations. We will also discuss some of the key lessons learned. Further details on the process will be presented, along with the bottom-line benefits associated with this type of relationship.

Map reading is an important skill of the human population which varies from person to person depending on the age, education and many other circumstances. It is expected that some groups of adult population have higher skills in this area. Soldiers, architects, geography teachers and others belong to this group of people. The skills in reading paper maps are disappearing in current digital world. This is also observed in the case of students of the University of Defense in Brno. 228 students were tested in map reading and geographical knowledge of the Czech Republic to verify this fact. The examination of the map reading skills took place over a standard topographic map at a scale of 1 : 25 000 from the production of the Geographic Service of ACR. Testing of geographical knowledge of the Czech Republic was focused on drawing the map of district towns, rivers and geomorphological units of the Czech Republic. The results confirmed the initial assumptions about the decreasing level of these skills. In addition, there were also significant differences between individual groups of students caused mostly because of previous education as well as the currently studied specialization. The same testing was done on students of the Faculty of Education of Masaryk University in Brno to confirm these conclusions. This group of students achieved worse results in map reading, but on the other hand, they have better knowledge of the geography of the Czech Republic.

The development of sustainable model of aquaculture by applying Sato Umi concept within coastal area of Indonesia has expanded from the center of first experiment in the northern coastal area of west Java to central Java (western Indonesia) and Bantaeng in the South Sulawesi of central Indonesia. The similar program has also been proposed for Maluku Province in the eastern part of Indonesia. In the next 5 years, Indonesia is developing the Techno Parks Program in some areas, in which aquaculture and fisheries activities development on the base of Sato Umi concept in the coastal area are involves in this program. The development of Techno Parks are directed as a center application of technology to stimulate the economy in the regency, and a place of training, apprenticeship, technology dissemination center, and center business advocacy for the public. Hopely, Sato Umi concept that has a similar spirit with Techno Park can be applied to support the implementation of Techno Park program in Indonesia

The development of sustainable model of aquaculture by applying Sato Umi concept within coastal area of Indonesia has expanded from the center of first experiment in the northern coastal area of west Java to central Java (western Indonesia) and Bantaeng in the South Sulawesi of central Indonesia. The similar program has also been proposed for Maluku Province in the eastern part of Indonesia. In the next 5 years, Indonesia is developing the Techno Parks Program in some areas, in which aquaculture and fisheries activities development on the base of Sato Umi concept in the coastal area are involves in this program. The development of Techno Parks are directed as a center application of technology to stimulate the economy in the regency, and a place of training, apprenticeship, technology dissemination center, and center business advocacy for the public. Hopely, Sato Umi concept that has a similar spirit with Techno Park can be applied to support the implementation of Techno Park program in Indonesia

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth (Reese 1984; NPSa undated). GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear (Schullery 1992). The boundary was enlarged through time and now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho. Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary. GYA also includes the Wind River Indian Reservation, but the region is the historical home to several Tribal Nations. Federal lands managed by the US Forest Service, the National Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service amount to about 64% (15.5 million acres [6.27 million ha] or 24,200 square miles [62,700 km2]) of the land within the GYA. The federal lands and their associated wildlife, geologic wonders, and recreational opportunities are considered the GYA’s most valuable economic asset. GYA, and especially the national parks, have long been a place for important scientific discoveries, an inspiration for creativity, and an important national and international stage for fundamental discussions about the interactions of humans and nature (e.g., Keiter and Boyce 1991; Pritchard 1999; Schullery 2004; Quammen 2016). Yellowstone National Park, established in 1872 as the world’s first national park, is the heart of the GYA. Grand Teton National Park, created in 1929 and expanded to its present size in 1950, is located south of Yellowstone National Park1 and is dominated by the rugged Teton Range rising from the valley of Jackson Hole. The Gallatin-Custer, Shoshone, Bridger-Teton, Caribou-Targhee, and Beaverhead-Deerlodge national forests encircle the two national parks and include the highest mountain ranges in the region. The National Elk Refuge, Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, and Grays Lake National Wildlife Refuge also lie within GYA.

Being able to follow the chain of contagion of COVID-19 is important to help save lives and control the epidemic without sustained costly lockdowns. This is especially relevant in Latin America, where economic contractions have already been the largest in the regions history. Given the high rates of transmission of COVID-19, relying only in manual contact tracing might be infeasible. Acceptability and uptake of contact tracing apps with exposure notifications is key for the implementation the “test, trace and treat” triad. In the first study of its kind in Latin America, we find that for a nationally representative sample of 10 countries, an opt-out regime with automatic installation significantly increases the probability of acceptance of such apps in almost 22 p.p. compared to an opt-in regime with voluntary installation. This triples the size and is of opposite sign of the effect found in Europe and the United States. We see that an opt-out regime is more effective in increasing acceptability in South America compared to Central America and Mexico; for those who claim not to trust the national government; and for those who do not use their smartphones for financial transactions. The severity of the pandemic at the place of residence does not seem to affect the effectiveness of the opt-out regime versus an opt-in one, but feeling personally at risk does increase the willingness to accept contact tracing apps with exposure notifications in general. These results can shed light on the use of default options in public health in the context of a pandemic in Latin America.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.