Academic literature on the topic 'Register contents'

AbstractFormulas for distributions of number of ones (non-zeroes) in the cycle of the output sequence of generalized binary Pohl generator are obtained. Limit theorems for these distributions are derived in the case when the lengths of registers are coprime and tend to infinity, the contents of different registers are independent, but cell contents within each register may be dependent. The consequences of these theorems are given for the case when the contents of cells are independent random variables having equiprobable distribution on {0, 1}.

The authors follow the traditional «general-particular» structure and present a systemic study of the problem of considering registers that support self-regulation in construction to be objects of crime (primarily, from the viewpoint of subjective and functional factors). They analyze the concept of a «unified state register» used in criminal legislation, single out and critically assess the «literal» and the «meaning-based» interpretative approaches. Besides, they prove the necessity of the immediate inclusion of a specific register as an object of crime in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation and (or) in a special law; they also claim that the legal value of this register should be viewed as the most important criterion during such regulation. The object of a detailed study (its subject and maintenance procedure, contents and legal role, transparency and public authenticity, and others) is every register that supports self-regulation in construction. The authors also draw attention to the fact that only the state register of self-regulatory organizations is subject to the rules of Art. 285.3 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. As for other — «conditionally public» — registers (register of self-regulatory organization’s members and national registers of specialists), the authors present arguments in favor of criminalizing most dangerous actions connected with the distortion of their data. They conclude that it is necessary to eliminate the ambiguity of interpreting the concept of a register as an object of crime. It is proven that the development of legislation in this area should be connected with the unification of terminology (and its agreement with the cate-gories of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) and the inclusion of a specific register in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation and (or) a special law as an object of crime.

The article contents the origins of the entries in the land registers and their evolution especially after Poland regained its independence. In this regard it is necessary to determine the features of entries in the land registers as the specific form of judgments and also annotation or orders. The article shows the phenomenon the broader application new technology in the sphere of disclosing of property rights on real estate especially by the using communication and information system. The author also describes electronic land register proceedings and their co – existence with traditional form of proceedings, as well as possibilities of creating common system of information about real estate between the European countries – European land register.

Reflecting on a decade (2009–2020) of research on influencer cultures in Singapore, the Asia Pacific, and beyond, this article considers the potential of “below the radar” studies for understanding the fast evolving and growing potentials of subversive, risky, and hidden practices on social media. The article updates technology and social media scholar danah boyd’s foundational work on “networked publics” to offer the framework of “refracted publics.” While “networked publics” arose from media and communication studies of social network sites during the decade of the 2000s, focused on platforms, infrastructure, and affordances, “refracted publics” is birthed from anthropological and sociological studies of internet user cultures during the decade of the 2010s, focused on agentic and circumventive adaptations of what platforms offer them. “Refracted publics” are a product of the landscape of platform data leaks, political protests, fake news, and (most recently) COVID-19, and are creative vernacular strategies to accommodate for perpetual content saturation, hyper-competitive attention economies, gamified and datafied metric cultures, and information distrust. The key conditions (transience, discoverability, decodability, and silosociality) and dynamics (impactful audiences, weaponized contexts, and alternating publics and privates) of “refracted publics” allow cultures, communities, and contents to avoid being registered on a radar, register in misplaced pockets while appearing on the radar, or register on the radar but parsed as something else altogether. They are the strategies of private groups, locked platforms, or ephemeral contents that will continue to thrive alongside the internet for decades to come.

The Historical Population Register (HPR) of Norway gives rise to new research opportunities on a large array of topics spanning medicine, social sciences and humanities. This introductory article outlines the contents of the register, the periods it covers, and its use, particularly with respect to the study of geographic mobility. This article introduces the articles in this issue, which concentrate on the emigration to the US and the returnee emigrants.

YouTube as one of the most popular online platforms today, has brought millions of videos with a variety of entertaining and useful content and has made millions of internet users get access to YouTube. This benefits the content creators so they are competing to make interesting, unique and high-quality videos. Considering the increasing number of YouTubers and Vloggers appearing in Indonesia along with the large number of subscribers indicates that their emergence has become a new trend among the younger generation today. Therefore, this research is worth making to investigate the effect of the variety of Indonesian You Tuber and Vlogger on young people's language behavior. The research data is derived from a number of videos uploaded by IndonesianYoutuber and Vlogger by filtering representative content. To obtain the data on the effect of Indonesian You Tubers and Vlogers on the language behavior of the younger generation, it was carried out through questionnaires, interviews, and observations of youth groups to be able to hear firsthand variety of their languages. The data retrieval is done on sampling method of some contents of Youtuber and Vlogger analyzed, then listening to the language used both verbally and non verbally, after that note-taking and documenting the language variety. The data were qualitatively analyzed by appying several sociolinguistic theories. The results of the analysis were descriptively presented to reveal the variety of languages used by well-known Youtubers and Vlogers such as Atta Halilintar, Ria Ricis, Raffi Ahmad, etc. by using light and easy to understand language such as the word gaeess, kuy, tercyduk Youtuber or Vlogger's style of language has an impact on the language behavior of the younger generation today, where they often adopt their favorite Youtuber language style, especially jargon and slang words that often adorn teenagers' conversations today. However this cannot be said to have a negative effect on language behavior because they are quite selective in absorbing and using the Indonesian Youtuber's and Vlogger's language styles. Keywords: register, style, YouTuber, Vlogger

SummaryElaborate measures for donor selection and the production of clotting factor concentrates have led to a high safety standard of these products. A multimodal approach to eliminate unwanted contents has been established by strict screening of possible donors and various inactivation procedures within the production process. The systematic registration of adverse events shows very few allergic and nonallergic reactions to plasma derived clotting factor concentrates. In none of the registered cases transmission of infections could be verified. The worldwide registration of such adverse events is not yet sufficiently established, since adequate structures are lacking in some countries. According to estimates, far less than half of occurring adverse events are registered in Germany. A European solution in the form of an official register is about to be introduced.

This thesis Is based upon the archdeaconry of Stafford section of the episcopal register of Roger de Northburgh, bishop of Coventry and Lichfield from 1322-1358 and provides a calendar of the sixty seven, folios of text. The majority of the documents are institutions and collations to parish benefices, exchanges of benefice, appointments of abbots and priors to religious houses and collations and papal provisions of cathedral prebends and collations of prebendal houses. There is in addition a wide range of other documents, including one vicarage ordination and an episcopal letter concerning the non-distribution of oblations. The text has been indexed. The text is preceded by an introduction which comments on the parish priests, their origins and education, their career, their tenure of benefice and the length of vacancy between incumbencies. The patronage system and the appropriation of churches is discussed as is the effect of the Black Death of parish clergy. The last two chapters comment upon the family and the familia of the bishop and investigate at some length the itinerary of the bishop throughout his long episcopate. The introduction concludes with a short editorial note.

The purpose of this study was to identify the personality types of registered nurses in a rural community. An extensive literature review revealed that no studies, utilizing the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) to identify personality types, had been conducted with rural nurses. Jung's Psychological Type Theory was the theoretical framework for the study. The MBTI operationalizes Jung's theory and was utilized to determine the most frequently occurring personality types of the nurses. A descriptive study was conducted at a 68 bed acute care hospital. The sample consisted of 40 experienced registered nurses working in staff positions within the hospital. Sensing, feeling, and judging were the preferred functions of the nurses, consistent with the expected tasks of the direct care giver. The greatest number of nurses were classified as ISFJ (N=9) followed by ENFP (N=6)

Orientador: Ângela Maria Moraes
Dissertação (mestrado-) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Química
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T01:56:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pires_AnaLuizaResende_M.pdf: 3161193 bytes, checksum: c48592744224fd8b24f5563cdc1a3415 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013
Resumo: Polímeros biodegradáveis estão sendo amplamente aplicados na constituição de curativos para o tratamento de lesões de pele de diferentes origens, estando a quitosana e o alginato dentre os mais estudados. A associação de alginato e quitosana em curativos pode atuar de maneira positiva na absorção de fluidos das lesões, além de propiciar a incorporação de fármacos. Entretanto, a flexibilidade do dispositivo é baixa e o processo de obtenção é lento em função de etapas como a correção do pH para a neutralidade, secagem e reticulação. Neste trabalho teve-se por objetivo melhorar as propriedades mecânicas de membranas de quitosana e alginato pela incorporação de um gel de silicone comercial (Silpuran® 2130 A/B), avaliar os efeitos da correção do pH em etapa única, da temperatura de secagem e também da eliminação das etapas de reticulação nas características de membranas de quitosana e alginato na presença e ausência de AlphaSan®RC2000, um agente microbicida à base de prata. As membranas foram caracterizadas quanto à espessura, à absorção de fluidos, à perda de massa quando expostas a diferentes fluidos fisiológicos e à resistência mecânica. Análises complementares de FTIR e EDS também foram realizadas. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que as membranas secas a 60 °C apresentaram superfície mais lisa que as secas a 37 °C. A espessura diminuiu com a correção do pH para 7,0 e aumentou na presença de AlphaSan®RC2000. Para as formulações livres do antimicrobiano, a elevação do pH aumentou a absorção de soro fetal bovino e solução salina e aumentou também a perda de massa nesta última solução. Já as amostras obtidas na presença de AlphaSan® RC2000 apresentaram aumento na absorção de água. A elevação da temperatura reduziu somente a perda de massa após o contato com a água. A reticulação, após a secagem, com CaCl2 a 2% mostrou-se indispensável para a estabilização das membranas, resultando em materiais com aspecto mais rugoso e maior espessura. A absorção de fluidos, a estabilidade em diferentes fluidos e a resistência mecânica diminuíram tanto na presença quanto na ausência de prata. Análises por EDS e FTIR mostraram que tanto o AlphaSan® RC2000 quanto o Silpuran® 2130 A/B, não são removidos após a etapa de lavagem das membranas. As formulações contendo o composto siliconado apresentaram-se mais homogêneas, flexíveis e com maior caráter adesivo, assim como menor espessura. A absorção de soluções por estas formulações foi menor e a estabilidade em solução foi maior. A resistência mecânica aumentou significativamente com a incorporação de silicone, atingindo-se uma tensão de ruptura máxima de 63 MPa. Dessa forma, é viável a diminuição do tempo de processamento das membranas pelo ajuste do pH em etapa única, pelo uso de temperaturas mais elevadas de secagem e pela eliminação da etapa de reticulação primária. A incorporação de Silpuran® 2130 A/B mostrou-se uma boa alternativa para a melhora das propriedades mecânicas dos curativos de quitosana e alginato
Abstract: Biodegradable polymers are widely applied in the constitution of dressings for treating various types of skin lesions, being chitosan and alginate two of the most studied raw materials. The association between alginate and chitosan in wound dressings can act positively in the absorption of fluids from lesions, allowing also the incorporation of drugs. However, the device flexibility is frequently low and its production is time-consuming due to steps such as adjusting the pH to neutrality, sample drying and crosslinking. This study aimed to improve the mechanical properties of chitosan-alginate wound dressings by incorporating a commercial silicone gel (Silpuran® 2130 A/B) and to evaluate the effects of pH correction in one step, of the drying temperature and also of the elimination of the crosslinking steps in the characteristics of chitosan-alginate membranes obtained in the presence and absence of AlphaSan® RC2000, an antimicrobial agent containing silver in its composition. The membranes were characterized regarding thickness, absorption of fluids, mass loss in different fluids and mechanical resistance. Complementary analyzes of FTIR and EDS were also performed. The results showed that membranes dried at 60 °C presented smoother surfaces than when dried at 37 °C. Membrane thickness decreased with the correction of the pH to 7,0 and increased in the presence of AlphaSan® RC2000. For formulations free of the antimicrobial agent, the pH adjustment increased bovine fetal serum and saline solution absorption, increasing also sample mass loss in the latter solution. Devices containing AlphaSan® RC2000, on the other hand, had increased water absorption. The increase of drying temperature, however, reduced mass loss due to prolonged contact with water. The crosslinking with CaCl2 2% after a drying step was shown to be essential for membrane stabilization, conducting to materials with less smooth surfaces and with greater thickness. The absorption of fluids decreased for samples prepared both in the presence and absence of silver, as did membrane stability and mechanical properties. EDS and FTIR analyzes showed that both AlphaSan® RC2000 and Silpuran® 2130 A/B were not removed from the membranes after the washing step. The formulations incorporating the silicone compound showed more homogeneous surfaces, greater flexibility and adhesivity, as well as lower thickness. The solution absorption was lower and membrane stability was higher for those devices. The mechanical strength increased with the incorporation of silicone, reaching a maximum of 63 MPa. Thus, it is viable to decrease the processing time of the membranes by pH adjustment in a single step, through the use of higher temperatures during drying and by the eliminating of the primary crosslinking step. The incorporation of Silpuran® 2130 A/B proved to be a good alternative for the improvement of the mechanical properties of chitosan and alginate dressings
Mestrado
Desenvolvimento de Processos Biotecnologicos
Mestra em Engenharia Química

The limited dynamic range of digital images can be extended by composing different exposures of the same scene to produce HDR images. This thesis is composed of an overview of the state of the art techniques and three methods to tackle the image alignment and deghosting problems in the HDR imaging domain. The first method detects the areas affected by motion, registers the dynamic objects over a reference image, and combines low-dynamic range values to recover HDR values in the whole image. The second approach builds multiscopic HDR images from LDR multi-exposure images. It is based on a patch match algorithm which was adapted and improved to take advantage of epipolar geometry constraints of stereo images. The last method proposes to replace under/over exposed pixels in the reference image by using valid HDR values from other images in the multi-exposure LDR image sequence.
El limitado rango dinámico de las imágenes digitales puede ampliarse mezclando varias imágenes adquiridas con diferentes valores de exposición. Esta tesis incluye un detallado resumen del estado del arte y tres métodos diferentes para alinear las imágenes y corregir el efecto ’ghosting’ en imágenes HDR. El primer método está centrado en detectar las áreas afectadas por el movimiento y registrar los objetos dinámicos sobre una imagen de referencia de modo que se logre recuperar información a lo largo de toda la imagen. Nuestra segunda propuesta es un método para obtener imágenes HDR multiscópicas a partir de diferentes exposiciones LDR. Está basado en un algoritmo de ’patch match’ que ha sido adaptado para aprovechar las ventajas de las restricciones de la geometría epipolar de imágenes estéreo. Por último proponemos reemplazar los píxeles saturados en la imagen de referencia usando valores correctos de otras imágenes de la secuencia.

Background: Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a relatively common condition. In Sweden, the overall estimated prevalence of POP in the female population is 31% and the prevalence of symptomatic prolapse is 8–15%. The prevalence of POP increases with age. The lifetime risk of undergoing pelvic floor surgery is estimated to 11%. The aim of this thesis was to investigate outcomes of vaginal hysterectomy for treatment of prolapse; to study outcomes of cystocele repair surgery and patient satisfaction related to different anaesthesia methods; to explore women’s experiences of vaginal prolapse; and to investigate what is known regarding POP prior to surgery and healthcare-seeking behaviour. Methods: In the Swedish National Quality Register for Gynaecological Surgery (Gynop-register), 941 women were identified who underwent vaginal hysterectomy for prolapse from 1997 to 2005 and 1,364 women were identified who underwent cystocele repair surgery from 2006 to 2009. In-depth interviews were performed with 14 women with vaginal prolapse. Interview data were analyzed with a qualitative content analysis. To investigate women’s knowledge about POP and healthcare-seeking behaviour, a questionnaire was developed, validated and distributed to women with planned surgery for POP. Women undergoing hysterectomy or incontinence surgery were used as reference groups. Results: Severe complications after vaginal hysterectomy occurred in 3% of cases. Sexual activity was improved after vaginal hysterectomy, the number of women reported to have intercourse increased by 20% (p = 0.006). Subjective symptoms of urinary incontinence and overactive bladder were resolved in 50% of the women. De novo stress incontinence was reported by 11% of the women. Use of local anaesthesia (LA) in reconstruction of cystocele showed advantage over other forms of anaesthesia. Length of hospital stay, duration of use of postoperative pain-killing drugs, and time to return to daily activity were shorter among women who underwent surgery with LA compared to other forms of anaesthesia. Patient satisfaction was not related to methods of anaesthesia. In an interview study, the process from recognition the symptoms to seeking healthcare was highlighted. Two categories, “obstacles” and “facilitators” to seeking health care, were identified. One of the obstacles was lack of information on POP in the public domain. The main facilitators were feeling sexually unattractive and impaired physical ability due to POP. Some findings from the interview study were further explored in the questionnaire study. One out of five women with vaginal prolapse did not know that the symptoms were related to prolapse before consulting their physician. Over 30% of the women in the incontinence group were embarrassed to talk about incontinence, and they were unaware that it could be treated. The most frequent description of vaginal prolapse was vaginal bulging. Women in the prolapse group had significantly less access to information through brochures and public media than women in the incontinence group (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Short-term follow-up after vaginal hysterectomy showed that sexual activity and urinary symptoms had improved. Cystocele surgery using LA showed no disadvantage compared to surgery using other anaesthesia methods. POP surgery can therefore be performed safely with LA. Information on prolapse should be easily accessible to improve the possibility for women of gaining knowledge and thereby overcoming obstacles to seeking medical advice. Healthcare professionals have a significant role to play in informing women about symptoms and available treatment options.

Bakgrund: Under större delen av 1900-talet präglades sjuksköterskeutbildningen av medicinsk vetenskap och en naturvetenskaplig syn på människan var påtaglig. I och med Vård -77-reformen blev omvårdnadsvetenskap karaktärsämne och en holistisk syn på människan införlivades i utbildningen. Sjuksköterskeutbildningens utformning och övergripande innehåll styrs av Högskoleförordningen och sjuksköterskans kunskaper inom yrket styrs av Socialstyrelsens kompetensbeskrivning för legitimerade sjuksköterskor. Kritik har riktats mot dagens utbildning och forskning har påvisat att nyutexaminerade sjuksköterskor tenderar att brista i många praktiska moment. Syfte: Studiens syfte var att belysa erfarna sjuksköterskors uppfattning om nyutexaminerade sjuksköterskor. Metod: Empirisk intervjustudie med deskriptiv kvalitativ ansats. Resultat: Under intervjuerna framkom att nyutexaminerade sjuksköterskor är inspirerade av ny kunskap och kan se på gamla rutiner med nya ögon. Stress och högt arbetstempo påverkar arbetsutförandet negativt. De uppfattades inneha gedigen teoretisk kunskap, dock påtalades svårigheter med att omsätta denna i praktiken. Nyutexaminerade beskrevs som noggranna och fokuserade men med svårigheter i att se helheten i arbetet. Vidare upplevdes de samarbeta väl i team men vara bristfälliga i den arbetsledande rollen. Slutsats: Nyutexaminerade sjuksköterskor är inte alltid redo för de krav som i verksamheten ställs. Främst beror detta på att de saknar erfarenhetsbaserad kunskap. Resultatet av studien tyder på att nuvarande utbildning inte är tillräckligt yrkesförberedande. Klinisk betydelse: Studiens resultat kan genom vidare forskning få betydelse för sjuksköterskeutbildningens framtida utformning. De områden som framförallt bör ses över är undervisning i praktiskt utförande samt i ledarskap. Dessa bör få större plats i utbildningen.
Background: For the major part of the 20th century, the nursing education was dominated by medical science and a scientific view on the human being was distinct. As a result of the Vård-77-reform, nursing science became the main subject of the education and a holistic view of the human being was established. The nursing education is guided by The Higher Education Act, and the competence and knowledge required of the nurse is guided by The National Board of Health and Welfare´s description of competence regarding registered nurses. The nursing education has been criticized and research has shown that newly registered nurses are insufficient in several practical elements. Aim: To examine experienced nurses’ perception of newly registered nurses. Method: An empirical interview-study with a qualitative descriptive approach. Results: Newly registered nurses are inspired by new knowledge and look at old routines with new eyes. Stress and a high workload affect them in a negative way. They were perceived to have a great deal of theoretical knowledge, but were said to have difficulties in applying those to practice. Newly registered nurses were perceived as accurate and focused but with difficulties seeing the work as a whole. They were said to work well in teams but don’t seem to have the ability of leading them. Conclusions: Newly registered nurses are not always well enough prepared for the demands which are required in clinical practice. This is primarily due to lack of experience based knowledge. The result of the study shows that the current education isn’t vocational. Clinical implication: The result of the study can, through further research, be of importance for the future nursing education. The areas that above all need to be investigated are the education in practical skills and leadership. Those subjects need to get more focus in the education.

In this topic the basic principles of sensors to gather information about plant status are explained. Mainly optical sensors, but also systems based or other principles, vegetation sensors will be presented as well as their use to register information about crop health, physiological activity, possible pest infestation, water content, and so on. Information acquired by these sensors (normally optical signals) must be processed adequately and, in many cases, converted into vegetation indexes that will be presented for different cases of usage.

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1917–1920 killed, according to some researchers, up to 100 million people while others estimate lower numbers such as 20 million victims. The reason for this uncertainty is that data for a number of countries, including Russia, are rather rough estimates based on mortality rates from other parts of the world. This study analyzes the causes of death in the population of Еkaterinburg during the period of the Spanish pandemic to determine likely signs of the spread of influenza. Databases on the causes of death registered in the city’s parish registers were used as a source

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1917–1920 killed, according to some researchers, up to 100 million people while others estimate lower numbers such as 20 million victims. The reason for this uncertainty is that data for a number of countries, including Russia, are rather rough estimates based on mortality rates from other parts of the world. This study analyzes the causes of death in the population of Еkaterinburg during the period of the Spanish pandemic to determine likely signs of the spread of influenza. Databases on the causes of death registered in the city’s parish registers were used as a source

The aim of the modernization is to improve the quality of the collected data. That is necessary especially in those areas where cadastral maps are used in the scale of 1:2880. The most satisfactory results in the process of modernization are obtained on the basis of geodetic field measurements. The aim of the paper is to verify the work related to real estate cadastre modernization in the context of the quality of the cadastral data collected in 1999–2001. This paper presents the results of surveying, which aim was to check whether the data contained in the register of land are a reflection of the facts boundaries and surface parcels. In the analyzes the materials of selected areas from state resources were used. The verification of graphic materials (maps) and descriptive (areas of plots) obtained from the District Office carried out in this paper showed a satisfactory level of data compliance. Factual status on the ground, in most cases, corresponds to the existing in extracts from the land registry, created on the basis of the land and buildings registry modernization in 1999–2001. These data correspond to the areas calculated from the results of the 2016 direct measurements.

Risk management is the subject of increasing attention in recent years. In the US, when Federal funds are committed to projects, risk management is a required programmatic activity. Even when it is not mandated by law or regulation, risk management is prudent for expensive, long-duration projects. Frequently, risk management is based on a risk register, and often captures as a list of typical problems with design and construction that a contractor has experienced. Risk registers vary in quality and usefulness. Some contractor submissions appear to be more “pro-forma” documents, while more useful risk registers will include anticipated risks tailored to the complexity of the scope of work and the contractor’s anticipated solution. This qualitative approach can develop a reasonable view of key risks and work to mitigate them. Recent experience at Arup has shown that this approach, while valuable as an initial approach, is limited by its quantitative nature. This paper will explore some of the key lessons learned and emerging practices that have been successfully used in recent work in detail. Key topics include: • While the essential elements of risk management apply across a wide range of markets, the planning and construction of risk management for due diligence, privately funded and partnership funded (both government and PPP) projects require different emphases and tailored approaches. • Appropriate risk structuring is required to identify key project risks that may be unrelated or marginally related to design and construction. Developing clear and effective ancillary risk statements (e.g., for marketing, finance, permitting and regulatory requirements) is important to successful risk management. • Where partnering is used for funding, there is a greater need for clarity and good communication. Planning documents require special consideration to minimize difficulties. Planning documents also need to be efficient and effective. • Large, sometimes geographically diverse, teams benefit from alternative approaches to risk workshops. • Large, expensive and long duration projects benefit by shifting risk analysis toward a more quantitative approach. Modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation require special software (@Risk or Primavera) and sound input. Analyses that move risk statements from the essentially qualitative (such as severity of 4 and likelihood of 3) to agreed quantitative inputs are important. • Cost and schedule contingency are key concerns for funding agencies, whether in-house or external. The underlying structure for effectively constructing contingency depends on the contracting structure, sequencing of work, unit price allowances and other factors, in addition to the analysis of the contingency requirements of technical and other specific risks. • Special analyses for items of particular concern, for instance, the adequacy of escalation allowances or geotechnical risks, can also be helpful, particularly in the context of emerging technologies such as HSR. Risk management is coming of age, and is more than a risk register. Projects benefit from a more qualitative approach. Not every technique applies to every project, of course, but most projects, small and large, can benefit from a more structured, quantitative approach to risk management.

The Fort Huachuca Environmental and Natural Resources Division (ENRD) tasked ERDC-CERL to compile a history of the development of Fort Huachuca for use in evaluating existing facilities and how they fit within the larger, overarching history of the fort. Fort Huachuca desires a comprehensive history of the fort for use in better understanding how its various facilities integrate into the overall history and development of the fort and its existing National Historic Landmark (NHL) and proposed existing evaluated, eligible, and listed National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) properties and districts. This comprehensive history will help ENRD in making determinations on how to address future National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) nominations and/or recommendations for adding new historic districts or expanding the existing historic district. ERDC-CERL compiled content from 18 existing historic contexts, building inventory and cultural re-sources reports, NRHP nomination and registration forms, and Historic American Buildings Survey (HABS) forms previously completed for the ENRD, and used these resources to compile the current history.

The Army is tasked with managing the cultural resources on its lands. For installations that contain large numbers of historic farmsteads, meeting these requirements through traditional archaeological approaches entails large investments of personnel, time and organization capital. Through two previous projects, Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (ERDC-CERL) cultural resource management personnel developed a methodology for efficiently identifying the best examples of historic farmstead sites, and also those sites that are least likely to be deemed eligible for listing on the National Register of Historic Places. This report details testing the applicability of the methodology to regions across the country. Regional historic contexts were created to assist in the determination of “typical” farmsteads. The Farmstead/Ranch Eligibility Evaluation Form created by ERDC-CERL researchers was revised to reflect the broader geographic scope and the inclusion of ranches as a property type. The form was then used to test 29 sites at five military installations. The results of the fieldwork show this approach is applicable nationwide, and it can be used to quickly identify basic information about historic farmstead sites that can expedite determinations of eligibility to the National Register.

This project was undertaken to provide the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs National Cemetery Administration with a cultural landscape survey of Knoxville National Cemetery. The 9.8-acre cemetery is located within the city limits of Knoxville, Tennessee, and contains more than 9,000 buri-als. Knoxville National Cemetery was placed on the National Register of Historic Places on 12 September 1996, as part of a multiple-property submission for Civil War Era National Cemeteries. The National Cemetery Administration tasked the U.S. Army Engineer Re-search and Development Center-Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (ERDC-CERL) to inventory and assess the cultural landscape at Knoxville National Cemetery through creation of a landscape development context, a description of current conditions, and an analysis of changes over time to the cultural landscape. All landscape features were included in the survey because according to federal policy on National Cemeteries, all national cemetery landscape features are considered to be contributing elements.

The U.S. Congress codified the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966 (NHPA) to provide guidelines and requirements for preserving tangible elements of our nation’s past. This preservation was done primarily through creation of the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), which contains requirements for federal agencies to address, inventory, and evaluate their cultural resources, and to determine the effect of federal undertakings on properties deemed eligible or potentially eligible for the NRHP. This work inventoried and evaluated the historic landscapes within the National Landmark District at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. A historic landscape context was developed; an inventory of all landscapes and landscape features within the historic district was completed; and these landscapes and features were evaluated using methods established in the Guidelines for Identifying and Evaluating Historic Military Landscapes (ERDC-CERL 2008) and their significance and integrity were determined. Photographic and historic documentation was completed for significant landscapes. Lastly, general management recommendations were provided to help preserve and/or protect these resources in the future.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU’s (African Union’s) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only “about” data, but which “is” data. According to an article1 by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), “At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge.” Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is “trust” – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. “This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy”, says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect2 project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa)3 project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly)4, have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System5 (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community6 (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high- performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array7 (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs 8 (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/ supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries 9 programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10 ). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management.

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor