Academic literature on the topic 'Register variation'

Abstract Previous research suggests there are register differences between native and non-native varieties of English, as well as translated English. This article reports on a multidimensional (MD) analysis of register variation in the published written registers of 16 varieties of English, and tests expectations for register variation in contact varieties evident from existing research. The study finds that the effects of variety and register are largely independent of each other, indicating that overall, registers pattern in similar ways across varieties. register is the strongest factor accounting for variance in the data, but variety also contributes significantly to variation. Non-native varieties before phase four in the Dynamic Model (Schneider 2007) and translations draw more extensively on markers of formality than non-native varieties at phase four and native varieties. Contact varieties display fewer involvement features than native varieties. Persuasive strategies and reported speech are variable across varieties, suggesting local stylistic and cultural differences.

Violations in the timing constraints of a clocked register can cause a synchronous system to malfunction. The effects of parameter variations on the timing characteristics of registers that determine the timing constraints are investigated in this paper. The sensitivity of the setup time and data propagation delay to variations in power supply voltage, temperature, and gate oxide thickness is demonstrated for four different register designs. Furthermore, design modifications are proposed that enhance the robustness of each register to variation effects.

Abstract Douglas Biber, Regents’ Professor of Applied Linguistics at Northern Arizona University, authors this article exploring the connections between register and a text-linguistic approach to language variation. He has spent the last 30 years pursuing a research program that explores the inherent link between register and language use, including at the phraseological, grammatical, and lexico-grammatical levels. His seminal book Variation across Speech and Writing (1988, Cambridge University Press) launched multi-dimensional (MD) analysis, a comprehensive framework and methodology for the large-scale study of register variation. This approach was innovative in taking a text-linguistic approach to characterize language use across situations of use through the quantitative and functional analysis of linguistic co-occurrence patterns and underlying dimensions of language use. MD analysis is now used widely to study register variation over time, in general and specialized registers, in learner language, and across a range of languages. In 1999, the Longman Grammar of Spoken and Written English (Biber et al.) became the first comprehensive descriptive reference book to systematically consider register variation in describing the grammatical and lexico-grammatical patterns of use in English. Douglas Biber’s quantitative linguistic research has consistently demonstrated the importance of register as a predictor of language variation. In his own words, “register always matters” (Gray 2013: 360, Interview with Douglas Biber, English Language & Linguistics).

Variation in language on the basis of formality (register variation) is often neglected both in grammatical descriptions and in sociolinguistic analyses. I demonstrate here that in Sinhala, and perhaps in other diglossic languages, register variation in syntax cannot be ignored. In a Head-Driven Phrase Structure Grammar (HPSG) analysis based on a corpus of naturally occurring Sinhala texts, I propose an analysis of register variation in which the syntax of all observed registers is accounted for within a single grammar. I further explain how the approach to register variation developed here can be extended to other types of sociolinguistic variation.

Abstract While the language of the internet has been an increasingly popular research topic, there remain many understudied areas and topics which deserve more attention. This study explores register variation within the social media website Reddit using the multi-dimensional approach developed by Douglas Biber. Reddit, the third most popular English-language social media website after the giants Facebook and Twitter, is made up of thousands of user-created ‘subreddits’, subcommunities centered around different topics, where users make posts and comment on them. Many different communities and topic areas under one roof makes Reddit a particularly fruitful source of research material. In this paper, three register dimensions are extracted from data collected over one month from a group of thirty-seven subreddits: ‘On-line Subjective Production’, ‘Informational Style’ and ‘Instructional Focus’. These dimensions describe register variation within Reddit in meaningful ways. They are also in line with suggested register universals (Biber 2014).

This paper introduces the design decisions in building the Koder corpus, a multi-register-corpus of contemporary German. The purpose of this corpus is to serve as a basis for the investigation into the use of German across registers. In order to construct a representative corpus, the essential considerations are: the type and number of registers to include, the number of texts in each register and minimal text length. The paper describes which aspects were central in determining these issues as well the corpus composition and the necessary text processing.

Abstract Michael Halliday’s argument for the value of ‘trinocular vision’ in linguistic research has particular relevance to the observation, exploration and description of register. Taking each semiotic dimension relevant to the characterisation of register by turn, I begin by discussing Halliday’s proposition. I then proceed, using the metaphor of cartography, to examine register variation via the intersection of three semiotic dimensions: stratification, instantiation and metafunction. I discuss how such examinations enable us to create description maps of register variation. From this basis, I discuss a long-term programme of systematically producing descriptive maps of registers, which I and colleagues have begun. Finally, I suggest that by using such maps we can better understand such important phenomena as aggregates of registers and personal register repertoires.

ABSTRACTThe present study uses a multidimensional approach to analyze the linguistic characteristics of Somali spoken and written registers. Somali is unusual in that it has a very short history of literacy (only since 1973), but at present it has a wide range of written and spoken registers, including governmental, educational, and public information uses. It thus represents a very different language type from previously described languages. We analyze the distribution of 65 linguistic features across 279 texts from 26 spoken and written registers, using factor analysis to identify five major dimensions of variation. None of these dimensions defines an absolute dichotomy between spoken and written registers, although three of the dimensions can be considered “oral/literate” parameters. As in the multidimensional analyses of other languages, the present study shows that no single dimension adequately describes the relations among spoken and written registers; rather, each dimension reflects a different set of communicative functions relating to the purpose, general topic, degree of interactiveness, personal involvement, production circumstances, and other physical mode characteristics. In the conclusion, we briefly discuss our findings relative to previous multidimensional analyses of English, Tuvaluan, and Korean, laying the foundation for cross-linguistic analyses of universal tendencies of register variation.

Electronic correspondence is a highly dynamic genre within the business world in which Register Variation (RV) is frequently used as a tool to improve communication but it often can lead to misunderstanding. In order to shed some light on this still unexplored area, the present study firstly offers a practical approach to classify and analyse RV within professional communication. After this, it reviews previous studies on email writing to apply their findings to this approach and, in the third part of the study, a corpus of recent business emails in English is analysed to examine how the key parameters of RV are currently used within this genre. The results will show that, not only the context, but also the roles and intentions of the senders influence an email’s register, often causing internal oscillations between different registers within the same text.

This thesis contributes to the discussion of register variation within Egyptian Arabic by focusing on the usage of verbs in blogs and transcripts of movies and television. Register variation has been extensively researched for English as well as several other languages; yet, the lexical and grammatical features that distinguish registers of Egyptian Arabic have not been analyzed. Several challenges have prevented such an analysis, among them the perceived lack of an automatic annotator and the uncertainty of results. In order to overcome these challenges, two corpora were compiled: one containing texts from blogs and the other transcripts of movies and television shows. With each corpus representing a potential register of the dialect, the verbs in each corpus were lemmatized and semi-automatically annotated for either aspect or mood. The verbs were then counted according to lemma, aspect, and mood in order to determine the extent of variance between the two corpora. The effectiveness of the state-of-the-art automatic annotator was also evaluated by comparing the counts it provided to those produced from corrections of its output. This thesis found that verbs are in fact used differently in the two corpora suggesting register variation and identified potential verbal features characteristic of each register. It also found that the automatic tagger produced counts that lead to the same conclusions as the corrected annotation.

Although offset printing has been and still is the most common printing technology for color print productions, its print productions are subject to variations due to environmental and process parameters. Therefore, it is very important to frequently control the print production quality criteria in order to make the process predictable, reproducible and stable. One of the most important parts in a modern industrial offset printing is Computer to Plate (CtP), which exposes the printing plate. One of the most important quality criteria for printing is to control the dot gain level. Dot gain refers to an important phenomenon that causes the printed elements to appear larger than their reference size sent to the CtP. It is crucial to have the dot gain level within an acceptable range, defined by ISO 12647-2 for offset printing. This is done by dot gain compensation methods in the Raster Image Processor (RIP). Dot gain compensation is however a complicated task in offset printing because of the huge number of parameters affecting dot gain. Another important quality criterion affecting the print quality in offset is the register variation caused by the misplacement of printing sheet in the printing unit. Register variation causes tone value variations, gray balance variation and blurred image details. Trapping is another important print quality criterion that should be measured in an offset printing process. Trapping occurs when the inks in different printing units are printed wet-on-wet in a multi-color offset printing machine. Trapping affects the gray balance and makes the resulting colors of overlapped inks pale. In this dissertation three different dot gain compensation methods are discussed. The most accurate and efficient dot gain compensation method, which is noniterative, has been tested, evaluated and applied using many offset printing workflows. To further increase the accuracy of this method, an approach to effectively select the correction points of a RIP with limited number of correction points, has also been proposed. Correction points are the tone values needed to be set in the RIP to define a dot gain compensation curve. To fulfill the requirement of having the register variation within the allowed range, it has to be measured and quantified. There have been two novel models proposed in this dissertation that determine the register variation value. One of the models is based on spectrophotometry and the other one on densitometry. The proposed methods have been evaluated by comparison to the industrial image processing based register variation model, which is expensive and not available in most printing companies. The results of all models were comparable, verifying that the proposed models are good  alternatives to the image processing based model. The existing models determining the trapping values are based on densitometric measurements and quantify the trapping effect by a percentage value. In this dissertation, a novel trapping model is proposed that quantifies the trapping effect by a color difference metric, i.e. , which is more useful and understandable for print machine operators. The comparison between the proposed trapping model and the existing models has shown very good correlations and verified that the proposed model has a bigger dynamic range. The proposed trapping model has also been extended to take into account the effect of ink penetration and gloss. The extended model has been tested using a  high glossy coated paper and the results have shown that the gloss and ink penetration can be neglected for this type of paper. An automated CtP calibration system for offset printing workflow has been introduced and described in this dissertation. This method is a good solution to generate the needed huge numbers of dot gain compensation curves to have an accurate CtP calibration.

This is the first in-depth, quantitative study of register variation in Scottish Gaelic (ScG), an endangered Celtic language. Previous work on the subject has been mainly anecdotal in nature or a by-product of other lines of investigation. A recent diachronic study on Gaelic ‘news-speak’ (Lamb 1999) found it impossible to fully uncover the characteristics of the register without benchmark data on the language’s overall register range and morphosyntactic variation. This provided the impetus for the current study, which compares eight varieties of spoken and written ScG. An 81,000 word computerised corpus of Gaelic texts was compiled and tagged for a wide range of linguistic features sensitive to register differences. The tagging process was informed by a new descriptive grammar of ScG, which is included as an appendix. The registers were compared on the basis of the distributions of these features utilising several inferential statistical tests (e.g. Analysis of Variance). The study focuses on three broad areas of linguistic variation: syntax and information structure; morphology; and NP grammar and complexity. Robust differences were found between most of the register types in the corpus. In particular, conversational ScG stood out as markedly different; e.g. it had simpler NPs, fewer modifiers, less ‘subordinate’ structures and a greater use of fragmented structures such as left-detachment and asyndetic clausal juxtaposition. These features are similar to the attributes of spontaneous spoken language described by Chafe (1982) and Miller and Weinert (1998). Other major contrasts obtained for narrative vs. non-narrative, reportage vs. non-reportage, and formal writing vs. other register types. Five underlying contextual parameters were found to be responsible for the variation present; 1) production constraints; 2) discourse freedom; 3) information orientation; 4) interaction; and 5) producer characteristics. Overall, the results correlate well with those of Biber (1988 inter alia) and others adopting multi-dimensional models. They also demonstrate that ScG, despite being an endangered language, has a level of register variation comparable to that found in larger languages such as English.

How does localized translation relate to the Arabic language? According to the Localization Industry Standards Association, localization “involves taking a product and making it linguistically and culturally appropriate to the target locale (country/region and language) where it will be used and sold,” (Esselink 2000a, p. 3). In monoglossic situations, localized translation involves producing translations that reflect regional language variation. Localizing Arabic translations presents a greater challenge because the Arabic language is characterized by both register variation and regional variation (Badawi 1973/2012; Bassiouney 2009; Ferguson 1959/1972). Existing literature addresses both localized translation and Arabic translation, but does not address localized Arabic translation specifically. Within the field of outcomes research, a public health subfield that studies patient populations health and well-being, prior studies that analyze Arabic translations of outcomes research documentation focus solely on the validity of universal, not localized translations. Studies in other specialized fields such as law also fail to include analysis of localized Arabic translation. This study analyzes register and regional variation in one universal and twenty-seven localized Arabic translations of the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire (WPAI), a clinical outcome assessment that is frequently localized for use in internationally sited clinical trials (Margaret Reilly Associates 2013). To determine the degree to which the Arabic WPAIs are localized, twenty-one variables including linguistic lexical items, morphological forms, and syntactic structures were coded as either salient Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) or localized. Localized variables include salient Levantine Arabic (LA), Gulf Arabic (GA), and Egyptian Arabic (EA) features, shared MSA/LA/GA/EA variables and simplified variables. Then residual analysis of the expected and observed frequencies of each variable determined the overall degree of localization for each variable. Results indicate that salient MSA variables and localized variables are used in all twenty-eight WPAIs while localized salient LA, GA, and EA variables are completely absent. Although the inconsistent use of localized shared and simplified variables throughout the one universal and twenty-seven L-, G-, and E-WPAIs indicates that localization standards are met inconsistently, all twenty-eight WPAIs are successful within a functionalist framework because the use of salient MSA, shared, and simplified variables ensures that the text is accessible to a lay audience, which is the ultimate function of the target text (TT). This study sheds light on the inherent challenges of localized Arabic translation, which is caught between localization standards and Arabic language norms. Motivations for using salient MSA, shared, and simplified variables are discussed and implications of this study include improving methods for producing localized Arabic translations.

Over the last decade, Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) have been used extensively in gaming consoles, mobile phones, workstations and data centers, as they have exhibited immense performance improvement over CPUs, in graphics intensive applications. Due to their highly parallel architecture, general purpose GPUs (GPGPUs) have gained the foreground in applications where large data blocks can be processed in parallel. However, the performance improvement is constrained by a large power consumption. Likewise, Near Threshold Computing (NTC) has emerged as an energy-efficient design paradigm. Hence, operating GPUs at NTC seems like a plausible solution to counteract the high energy consumption. This work investigates the challenges associated with NTC operation of GPUs and proposes a low-power GPU design, Split Latency Allocator, to sustain the performance of GPGPU applications.

Abstract This thesis discusses the age and sex distribution of previously hospitalised asthmatics and the number of new asthma-induced treatment periods as a proportion of all asthma-related hospital admissions. Seasonal fluctuations in treatment periods were analysed with respect to age, and seasonal fluctuations in mortality among previously hospitalised asthmatics by combining the hospital discharge register with the mortality statistics on the basis of the patients social security numbers. A total of 364,871 asthma-induced treatment periods were reported to the hospital discharge register in 1972-1992, of which 192,195 occurred in 1.1.1983-31.12.1992, and 28.6% of these were new cases. Treatment periods relative to population amounted to 2.76/1000 in 1972 and 3.43/1000 in 1992. The number of treatment periods among children was greatest at the age of 1 year, 11.2/1000 for boys and 5.5/1000 for girls, and lowest at 17 years among the boys, and 13 years among the girls. The numbers rose slowly in early adulthood (with the exception of men aged 18-22 years), reaching a new peak at 73 years of age for men, 10.3/1000, and 75 years for women, 9.5/1000, and decreasing gradually thereafter. A half of the treatment periods recorded for patients aged under 1 year or for men aged 20 years represented new cases, whereas otherwise the vast majority of the treatment periods were being readmissions. The seasonal peaks among the total of 59,624 hospital periods involving persons aged under 15 years reported to the discharge register in 1972-1992 occurred in May and October, and the lowest figures in January and July. Conscripts aged 18-22 years experienced 4894 asthma-induced treatment periods in 1982-1992, representing incidence rates of 8.5/1000 in 1982 and 27.7/1000 in 1992. The figure was highest in the month in which the conscripts entered service and the month following that. A total of 81,243 asthma-induced treatment periods were recorded for persons aged over 24 years in 1987-1992, the figures being highest in January-May, 18.2% above the monthly trend in January, and lowest in July, 26.1% below the monthly trend. 7622 of the asthmatics first admitted in 1977-1992 died at an age of over 24 years in 1987-1993, mortality being highest in December and January and lowest in August. Obstructive pulmonary diseases were the primary cause of death for 1283 persons, including 489 who died of asthma itself. Apart from children and men aged 18-22 years, asthma gives rise to a large number of treatment periods among the middle-aged and the elderly. Measures should be taken to diagnose it at an early stage in these groups and to intensify the treatment provided. In addition, the factors provoking asthma during military service should be minimised and preventive measures enhanced in the case of children in May and September. As far as adults are concerned, asthma-related hospitalisation may involve a greater fatality risk in winter, so that aggravations occurring in winter should be treated with particular care.

Narratives are the product of a basic human tendency to make sense of real or imagined experiences. The research question posed in the dissertation is: how is narrativity encoded in East African English? Can the narrativity model in the dissertation distinguish between registers that prototypically focus on narration versus registers that do not primarily focus on narration? The narrativity model consists of four main groups of features, namely Agency, Causation, Contextualisation and Evaluation. These groups are representative of the fundamental structure of narratives: things happen to people at a specific time and place. Agency concerns the people who either instigate or are affected by the events. The things that happen can be denoted by Causation when they are the result of cause and effect in the world. Contextualisation refers to the grounding of events in time and space. Lastly, Evaluation concerns the reactions and attitudes people have towards the events. Eighteen linguistic features such as third person pronouns (part of the Agency group) and past tense verbs (part of the Contextualisation group) were analysed as micro-level indicators of narrativity. The corpus-based investigation analysed the linguistic features used to encode narrativity across 22 spoken and written registers of the East African component of the International Corpus of English (ICE-EA) using WordSmith Tools 4.0. The raw scores for each feature were standardised across all registers to enable comparisons between features, as well as between registers. The results indicate that narrativity is a gradient phenomenon that occurs across a variety of East African English spoken and written registers. After the initial analyses were done, the narrativity model was revised to include only 11 core narrativity features. These features are past tense verbs, third person pronouns, proper nouns for persons, activity verbs, time and place adverbials, perfect aspect, emotional stance verb feel, first person pronouns, evaluative adjectives and non-finite causative clauses. ICE-EA registers that focus on narration as a MEANS to make sense of experiences (the objective or END) are Fiction, Social letters, Oral narratives, Face-to-face conversation and Legal cross-examination. In other words, the core narrativity features are the MEANS and the END is to make sense of experiences and facilitate understanding using narration. Twelve registers have an intermediate focus on narrativity. Narration is a secondary or simultaneous objective in these registers alongside primary objectives such as scientific exposition, persuasiveness, information presentation or interpersonal interaction. There are five registers with low scores for the core narrativity features: Student writing, Business letters, Popular writing, Academic writing and Instructional writing. These registers do not primarily focus on narration and have other primary and even secondary objectives such as scientific exposition and persuasiveness. The narrativity model sheds light on the way narrativity is encoded using linguistic features and gives insight into East African English register variation
Thesis (M.A. (English))--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2011

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.