Academic literature on the topic 'Retail Banking'

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Journal articles on the topic "Retail Banking"

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Smith, Alan D. "Internet retail banking." Information Management & Computer Security 17, no. 2 (June 5, 2009): 127–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/09685220910964009.

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Kohlleppel, Laurenz. "Erfolgreiches Marketing im Retail-Banking." Zeitschrift für das gesamte Genossenschaftswesen 57, no. 2 (June 1, 2007): 106–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/zfgg-2007-0205.

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Das Geschäftsmodell der Sparda-Banken - die Fokussierung auf das standardisierte Privatkundengeschäft – ist mit der Wiederentdeckung des Retail-Bankings Gegen­stand breiter Aufmerksamkeit geworden. Die Sparda-Banken verfügen über Erfahrung und Tradition mit diesem Geschäftsmodell, die im heutigen Wettbewerbsumfeld ihresgleichen suchen.Welche Implikationen die aktuelle Wettbewerbssituation insbesondere für das Marketing der Sparda-Banken aufweist, wie sich die gruppenübergreifende Marketingarbeit gestaltet und sich in die regionale Geschäftspolitik der Sparda-Banken einfügt – dies sind Punkte, die im Verlauf dieses Beitrags thematisiert werden.
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Valenzuela, Fredy. "Switching barriers used to retain retail banking customers." Management Research Review 33, no. 7 (June 18, 2010): 749–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/01409171011055825.

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Garland, Ron. "Segmenting retail banking customers." Journal of Financial Services Marketing 10, no. 2 (November 2005): 179–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.fsm.4770184.

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Blanchard, R. F., and R. L. Galloway. "Quality in Retail Banking." International Journal of Service Industry Management 5, no. 4 (October 1994): 5–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/09564239410068670.

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Klein, Edgar. "Megatrends im Retail Banking." Bankmagazin 48, no. 2 (February 1999): 10–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03228715.

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Smith, Catherine P. "Developments in retail banking." Data Processing 27, no. 5 (June 1985): 37–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0011-684x(85)90137-6.

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Barry Howcroft, J., and John C. Lavis. "Pricing in Retail Banking." International Journal of Bank Marketing 7, no. 1 (January 1989): 3–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eum0000000001450.

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Barry Howcroft, J., and John Lavis. "Image in Retail Banking." International Journal of Bank Marketing 4, no. 4 (April 1986): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eb010786.

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Pandit, Richa, and Dr Ram Kumar Balyan. "Measuring Service Quality in Retail Banking." Indian Journal of Applied Research 3, no. 8 (October 1, 2011): 380–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/2249555x/aug2013/124.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Retail Banking"

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Bissen, Sholpan. "Corporate Social Responsibility in Retail Banking." St. Gallen, 2009. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/05612007001/$FILE/05612007001.pdf.

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Wong, Yuk Lan. "Business excellence model for retail banking." Thesis, Sheffield Hallam University, 2000. http://shura.shu.ac.uk/3826/.

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Creating customer value and building stockholder value are the cornerstones for excellence in any business endeavour. In an under-developed economy, financial institutions may accomplish these objectives through a customer focus strategy and implementation of some quality management principles. However, with the increasing accessibility to new technologies and intensified competition, managers have been alerted and become more aware of the fact that achieving excellence is made even more difficult - financial institutions must now do much more to excel in the competitive retail banking environment of the new millennium. It is believed, and the findings of the present work support, that the formulation of a robust improvement model capable of guiding through the whole excellence pursuant process will provide a solid foundation for successfully meeting the challenge. The burning desire to enhance competitiveness and drive for achieving business excellence have nurtured the development of a new Business Excellence Model for successful implementation of TQM in retail banking. It was found that existing TQM and business excellence models provide only prescriptive and indicative roadmaps for companies to follow but fail to provide a complete coverage of TQM concepts, holistic measure of business excellence and validated links between TQM elements and business excellence. Hence, some financial institutions may cast doubts on their applicability of TQM because the relationships between TQM principles and the results of business excellence are not assessed. As such, it should be valuable to develop and provide a model, which is capable of covering the TQM essence in a structured way to drive total quality improvement efforts. The present research aims to develop a theory-driven as well as practical model for retail banks and the retail banking sector to achieve business excellence. In the process, Hong Kong retail banks and the Hong Kong retail banking sector were chosen as the context for the present research to obtain valuable data on how successful implementation of TQM essence could contribute to business excellence in a Chinese society. Both employees and customers inputs, being the important sources of stakeholder information, have been the basis for analysis. Top performing bank's executives were interviewed to identify the core activities and factors that determine their bank's success. Further, data were collected from executives of 47 retail banks in Hong Kong. Structural equation modelling was employed to develop the new Business Excellence Model (BEM). SEM's software programme was employed to analyse the goodness of fit of the new BEM. The forces of excellence indices and business excellence indices of the sampled retail banks were computed using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) technique. The same procedure was also applied to the data collected ll from retail customers in the survey to measure the level of customer satisfaction of the retail banking sector. The indices of the BEM were then matched to the customer satisfaction indices of retail banks and retail banking sector for higher level of analysis. Findings of the present work indicate that the new BEM fits the data of the 47 retail banks very well. The BEM is a valid and reliable model for enabling retail banks to review the current level of practice in relation to their critical success factors continuously. With the new BEM, they can now measure and drive improvement in their critical activities and finally achieving business excellence. Similar results obtained for customer focus dimension of the BEM and the customer satisfaction measurement have further substantiated the robustness and usefulness of the new BEM. Hence, the new Business Excellence Model should be a valuable means for retail banks and the retail banking sector to pursue business excellence and to gain a competitive edge in the new millennium.
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David-West, Olayinka. "An IDS assessment of electronic banking performance in retail banking." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2012. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/an-ids-assessment-of-electronic-banking-performance-in-retail-banking(b2fa0a96-16a1-4c85-98d1-8bb8952919c8).html.

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The adoption of electronic self-service systems (SSTs), using information technology (IT) devices and channels, for the provision of banking services (also known as electronic banking or e-banking) has evolved in the last decade in emerging markets. In Nigeria, for instance, this development is driving the movement towards a cashless economy. These services, however, are fraught with problems ranging from incidents of fraud, empty automated teller machines (ATMs), the inability of the ATMs to dispense cash, and outright service unavailability. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to identify service improvements following current electronic banking service performance measures. Given the dearth of developing country research and appropriate constructs, secondary objectives include the: 1) conceptualisation of e-service using service science principles; 2) description of factors and attributes of electronic banking quality (EBQ) in Nigeria; 3) identification of consumer perceptions of EBQ; 4) proposal of a model of EBQ; and 5) rank and score EBQ performance. A three-step sequential mixed-methods research design is conducted. This consists of a substantial qualitative (QUAL) process that posits EBQ constructs using grounded theory techniques. This is followed by an equally substantial quantitative (QUAN) process that employs survey methods in the formulation of a scale to measure EBQ. The final quantitative (quan) process scores EBQ using survey research methods and intelligent decision system (IDS) analysis. Consumer perception measurements of Nigerian bank customers using the derived dimensions of EBQ - acceptability, accessibility, competence, convenience, reliability, responsiveness, security/privacy, access to support, availability of support, and usability - generated an unimpressive industry performance score of 56%. The thesis concludes that even though Nigerian bank customers are desirous of participating in the cashless economy, issues of cash security and responsiveness are paramount. Service improvement spaces for e-banking operators, centred on rigorous strategic planning initiatives, are identified alongside additional initiatives for bank customers and regulators. In summary, this thesis presents an alternative scale to measure consumer perceptions of EBQ that adds to the existing body of knowledge.
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Veil, Michael. "Direktbanken im Retail-Banking : Informationstechnologie und Strategie /." Freiburg i. Br. : Haufe, 1998. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=007960522&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.

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Tong, Tracy. "Strategic analysis of a retail banking firm /." Burnaby B.C. : Simon Fraser University, 2005. http://ir.lib.sfu.ca/handle/1892/3686.

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Loizides, Alecos. "Service quality in retail banking in Cyprus." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.488917.

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Borbón, Ernesto 1973. "The effects of technology in retail banking." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29735.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2003.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 69-77).
This paper was written acknowledging that technology has become an indispensable part of banking and its purpose is to analyze the effects of technology in the retail bank-client service delivery and will only refer to the back-office aspect of banking (and related technologies) as it becomes necessary to support the arguments or descriptions, therefore depth regarding this area will be intentionally limited. The paper is organized in 5 chapters. Chapter 1, Retail Banking Industry, definition and analysis. This chapter defines "retail banking" for the purpose of the paper, and presents a value chain and a five forces analysis to determine where technology could be more beneficial for the retail banks. Chapter 2, Non-financial competitors, discusses examples of existing and potential technology enabled non-financial firms to offer financial services ranging from just an information source to full blown payment channel. Chapter 3, Analysis of Relevant Technologies, brings some perspective on how technologies already adopted by end-users could be used (or are already been used) to deliver banking services. It also presents statistics about these technologies and a brief discussion on how consumers have changed their behaviors to embrace these new technologies. Some of these technologies are payment cards, mobile communication devices, internet, software agents and telematics Chapter 4, Security and Privacy Concerns, due to the nature of the products and services in the banking industry, the issue of security and privacy are extremely important and they enhance or hinder consumer adoption of new technologies. That is why these concerns will be discussed in a separate chapter. Chapter 5, Putting it All Together, building on the information gathered in the previous 4 chapters this fifth chapter presents a potential scenario of how these technologies could change the way we will do banking in the near future.
by Ernesto Borbon.
S.M.
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Parker, Lukas Jay, and lukasparker@gmail com. "Trust and the Australian retail banking industry : the impact of deinstitutionalisation of Australian retail banking services on consumer trust." Swinburne University of Technology, 2005. http://adt.lib.swin.edu.au./public/adt-VSWT20051117.105403.

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Consumer trust research has principally developed from established psychological-based research. This conception of consumer trust largely draws from research pertaining to interpersonal trust. This study combined existing theories from both sociological and psychological research in developing a consumer trust model specifically for banks. Partly because of their historical position in society and also because of their government-protected position, banks, bank branches and bank managers have traditionally held a respected, and trusted position in Australian communities. Because of this reputation and position in communities, banks were seen to display institutional attributes. These attributes were defined in this study as local community focus, local availability and visibility, relationship power symmetry and social obligation fulfilment. This study explored the notion of institution-based trust in an Australian retail banking context. Institution-based trust was a measure of the levels of consumer trust in various defined institutional attributes. It was contended that through the diminishment and divestment of its institutional attributes banks were impairing their institutional cachet. The process was termed 'deinstitutionalisation' and was postulated to have a negative impact on consumer trust. The hypothetico-deductive methodological framework was employed throughout the study, with a mail-based consumer survey used as the main means of primary data collection. 468 useable questionnaires from adult bank customers were yielded and the data analysed. These data were analysed and used to test twenty-three research hypotheses of which nineteen were supported. From the results, it was concluded that perceived local community focus, perceived social obligation fulfilment and perceived relationship power symmetry were antecedents to consumer trust in banks. Also, reasonable availability of conventional bank branch services was found to be an important component of perceived community focus of their banks, thus having an indirect relationship to institution-based consumer trust in banks. Community Banks were found to be exhibiting and promoting many of these institutional attributes. Consumers were found to be less likely to need bank branches for transactional or functional purposes, but branches were seen to be symbolically important. Also, consumers were found to be more likely to identify with intangible elements of their bank, principally bank brand, than with tangible attributes such as the bank branch. Importantly, consumers were found to be trusting of their banks, however they were more likely to believe that banks were less trustworthy now than they were in the past.
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Cheng, Ka-yee. "The retail distribution strategy for Hongkong Bank /." [Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong], 1993. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13497960.

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Guo, Qingyu. "Strategies of Customer Relationship Profitability in Retail Banking." Thesis, Karlstad University, Division for Business and Economics, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4598.

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The thesis aims to explore the strategies or tactics which make the retail banking profit from customer relationship. Through analyzing RR (relationship revenue) and RC (relationship cost), the report gets the strategies or tactics for the profitability in customer relationship base (CRP - customer relationship profitability).Relationship is the basis for the customer between the retail banking. The stable and sound long-term relationship makes retail banking profit RR (relationship revenue) from it. And in the same time to maintain and enhance customers‘ relationship will incur RC (relationship cost). Certain of RC (relationship cost) it is compulsory if the banks try to get RR (relationship revenue) from customer relationship. The point is to find out the strategies which will make retail banking can benefit its CRP (customer relationship profitability) and still serve their customers effectively and efficiently by their limited resource simultaneously.

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Books on the topic "Retail Banking"

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Omarini, Anna. Retail Banking. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137392558.

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Pond, Keith. Retail banking. 2nd ed. Cranbrook, Kent: Global Professional Pub., 2009.

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Bernet, Beat, and Peter Schmid, eds. Retail Banking. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3.

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Adrion, Elisabeth. Ertragsorientiertes Retail Banking. Bern: P. Haupt, 1997.

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Howcroft, J. B. Pricing in retail banking. Loughborough: Loughborough University Banking Centre, 1988.

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Leist, Susanne, and Robert Winter, eds. Retail Banking im Informationszeitalter. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-56063-7.

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Howcroft, J. B. Customer satisfaction in retail banking. Loughborough: Loughborough University Banking Centre, 1989.

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DiVanna, Joseph A. The Future of Retail Banking. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230509566.

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Scott, C. E. Changing face of retail banking. Oxford: Oxford Brookes University, 1997.

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Messerschmidt, Christian M., Sven C. Berger, and Bernd Skiera. Web 2.0 im Retail Banking. Wiesbaden: Gabler, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-6304-8.

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Book chapters on the topic "Retail Banking"

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Cousin, Violaine. "Retail Banking." In Banking in China, 165–70. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230595842_15.

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Pasiouras, Fotios. "Retail Banking." In Greek Banking, 83–107. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137271570_6.

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Omarini, Anna. "Introduction: From Banking to Retail Banking." In Retail Banking, 3–24. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137392558_1.

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Bernet, Beat. "Strategische Optionen im Retail Banking." In Retail Banking, 25–45. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_1.

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Bohl, Arnold. "Plädoyer für die Verkaufsförderung." In Retail Banking, 181–95. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_10.

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Heitmüller, Hans-Michael. "Verkaufssteigerungsprogramme im Privatkundengeschäft." In Retail Banking, 196–214. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_11.

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Ronzal, Wolfgang. "Führung im Verkauf." In Retail Banking, 215–28. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_12.

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Ashauer, Günter. "Personalentwicklung im Bereich des Retail Banking." In Retail Banking, 231–46. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_13.

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Hort, Erich. "Die MIGROSBANK — Portrait einer Retail-Bank." In Retail Banking, 247–54. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_14.

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Schlechthaupt, Wolf-Dieter. "Lean Branch Management — ein Element des Retail-Banking-Konzeptes." In Retail Banking, 255–69. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84614-3_15.

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Conference papers on the topic "Retail Banking"

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Vivekanandan, L., and VSD Jayasena. "Link between the expectations of retail banking customer and electronic banking solutions." In 2011 International Summer Conference of Asia Pacific Business Innovation and Technology Management (APBITM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/apbitm.2011.5996328.

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Grivas, Stella Gatziu, Ruven Schürch, and Claudio Giovanoli. "How Cloud Will Transform the Retail Banking Industry." In 6th International Conference on Cloud Computing and Services Science. SCITEPRESS - Science and and Technology Publications, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0005910903020309.

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Chauke, Lesego M., and Andre J. Buys. "Strategic utilization of information technology within retail banking." In Technology. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/picmet.2008.4599868.

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Mujinga, Mathias. "Retail banking service quality measurement: SERVQUAL gap analysis." In 2019 Conference on Information Communications Technology and Society (ICTAS). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ictas.2019.8703635.

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Kothari, Umesh, and A. Seetharaman. "Influencers of Automation in Retail Banking in UAE." In TENCON 2022 - 2022 IEEE Region 10 Conference (TENCON). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tencon55691.2022.9977510.

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Song, Insu, and John Vong. "Mobile Core-Banking Server: Cashless, Branchless and Wireless Retail Banking for the Mass Market." In 2013 International Conference on IT Convergence and Security (ICITCS). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icitcs.2013.6717857.

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Mengshan, Lu. "Research of China Merchants Bank's retail banking CRM strategies." In 2011 6th International Conference on Product Innovation Management (ICPIM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icpim.2011.5983707.

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RAICU, Irina, Nicolas BOITOUT, Razvan BOLOGA, and Mihai George STURZA. "WORD EMBEDDINGS IN ROMANIAN FOR THE RETAIL BANKING DOMAIN." In 19th International Conference on INFORMATICS in ECONOMY. Education, Research and Business Technologies. Bucharest University of Economic Studies Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/ie2020.04.06.

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Cui, Jingdong. "Consumer Decision Process Model in Multi-channel Retail Banking." In 2007 International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management. IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsssm.2007.4280113.

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Sager, M. T. "Competitive alliances with information technology-the Australian retail banking experience." In [1989] Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. Volume IV: Emerging Technologies and Applications Track. IEEE, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/hicss.1989.48121.

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Reports on the topic "Retail Banking"

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Emmons, William R., and Frank A. Schmid. When For-Profits and Not-For-Profits Compete: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Retail Banking. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2004.004.

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Iregui-Bohórquez, Ana María, and Jesús Otero. Testing the law of one price in retail banking : an analysis for Colombia using a pair-wise approach. Bogotá, Colombia: Banco de la República, September 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.733.

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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Payment Systems Report - June of 2020. Banco de la República de Colombia, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-sist-pag.eng.2020.

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Abstract:
With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governor
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