Academic literature on the topic 'Retail petroleum markets'

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Journal articles on the topic "Retail petroleum markets"

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Sarasa-Maestro, Carlos J., Rodolfo Dufo-López, and José L. Bernal-Agustín. "Grid Parity Analysis of PV Markets." Advanced Materials Research 827 (October 2013): 441–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.827.441.

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In the following paper, the grid parity is defined as the point of which the retail price of electricity is at least the same as the cost of generation (which is a mix of different generation sources: nuclear, natural gas, coal, petroleum, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and more). This cost is levelized though a studied formula which considers various cost parameters. The grid parity depends on the photovoltaic (PV) system cost, the interest rate, and the retail cost of the electricity, so there are some variables that when combined can help researchers understand how far a system is from achieving grid parity. This study will consider some vigorous surveys to clarify which the parameters affect the results.
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D'Rozario, Denver, and Keshav Shenoy. "Bharat Petroleum Company Limited's (BPCL), India one-stop truck shop (OSTS) retailing format." Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies 1, no. 3 (July 1, 2011): 1–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/20450621111180936.

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Subject area Retailing. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and Master's level business and management courses. Case overview This case looks at the second largest oil company in India (Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)) and examines an innovative services marketing concept that they introduced into the market in India for the first time, namely, one-stop truck shops. These new format truck-stops were targeted at the highway-based truckers in India who earlier had to stop off at multiple locations to eat and re-fuel increasing their on-road time and reducing their efficiency, much to the chagrin of their truck-fleet owners. Expected learning outcomes Students will be expected to build their knowledge of retailing in developing markets using the example of BPCL as a learning tool. The case examines differences in consumer behavior in developed vs developing markets, paying particular attention to the required need to differentiate the retail approach to suit the market. Supplementary materials Teaching note (with photographs).
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Hwang, Taehi. "A legal research on amending of the rule for the labeling system for the sake of consumer protection in the petroleum retail markets." Institute for Legal Studies 33, no. 2 (June 30, 2016): 197–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.18018/hylr.2016.33.2.197.

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OSTROVETSKY, Vitalii. "Excise tax on fuel in the system of economic instruments for environmental protection." Fìnansi Ukraïni 2021, no. 2 (April 2, 2021): 113–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.33763/finukr2021.02.113.

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Energy-related CO2 emissions have reached record levels. Such negative trends require intensification of the use of various instruments, economic in particular, which will reduce the negative impact on the ecology , scientific and technological progress and population growth on the planet Earth. One of the most effective and easiest instruments to apply is the excise tax on fuel. In most EU countries, gasoline is subject to an excise tax at rates that are 20-25% higher than the tax rate on diesel fuel. A similar situation is observed in Ukraine. At the same time, it should be noted that excise tax rates in the EU are 3-4 times higher than the rates applied in Ukraine. The world markets are experiencing a collapse in oil prices, as well as gasoline and diesel fuel. The decline in demand is due to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 distribution flow policy. Domestic and international travel is reduced, business and other forms of socio-economic activity are transferred to remote work via the Internet. However, in Ukraine, retail fuel prices remain at the same level. Consequently, producers make profits by taking advantage of changing supply and demand in the relevant markets. Lower excise tax rates in Ukraine compared to the EU, as well as falling world oil prices provide grounds for a gradual increase in excise tax rates on gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine. Every 10 Euro increase in the tax rate, other things being equal, will attract UAH 500-600 million to the budget of additional income, increasing the sale price of fuel by 1%. To this end, it is advisable to develop a schedule of such increase, which should be agreed with the main payers of the excise tax on petroleum products (producers and importers), which should be approved in the form of a memorandum or special agreement
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Alves, Carlos Alberto, and Michele Tiergarten. "Relations between retail market and distribution in LPG range: analyzing the cooperation and alliances." Revista Ibero-Americana de Estratégia 7, no. 2 (May 26, 2009): 101–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.5585/ijsm.v7i2.977.

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This work aims to proceed with the evaluation of relationship between retail market and distribution in liquefied petroleum gas range (LPG), according to Network Theory. This is an exploratory research, with qualitative characteristic, about the dynamics of cooperation relations. The results, although could not be considered as conclusive, by reason of the study of only one case, shows that an alliance with relationship problems and competition, between point-of-sale and resale, probably will be dissolved as soon as the retailer become a reseller.
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Fatimah, Atika. "ANALYSIS OF TRANSACTION COSTS OF LIQUID PETROLEUM GAS (LPG) 3 KG SUPPLY CHAIN IN YOGYAKARTA CITY." Ekuilibrium : Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi 14, no. 2 (September 16, 2019): 136. http://dx.doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v14i2.1508.

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Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) 3 kg is subsidized fuel circulated by Pertamina Corporation. The objective of this research was to analyze the supply chain, the selling margin among distribution agencies, and the transaction cost in the market supply chain of LPG 3 kg in Yogyakarta. The research used primary data such as interview and observation. The data was analyzed with qualitative descrptive analysis. The result of this research show two LPG 3 kg supply chain in Yogyakarta which are Pertamina – Agent – Base Seller – Retailer – Shop Seller – Cosumer and Pertamina – Agent – Base Seller – Retailer – Small and Medium Enterprises. The highest marketing margin obtained by retailers are Rp. 2942/ gas tube in the first supply chain and second supply chain. The hihgest transaction cost is managerial transaction cost is first supply chain and second supply chain which equals to 62,56 percent and 61,97 percent. Followed by 31,26 percent of market transaction cost in the first supply chain and 31,75 percent in the second supply chain. The lowest transaction costs are 6,13 percent of political transaction cost in the first supply chain and 6,26 percent of political transaction cost in the second supply chain. Therefore, the solution to this problem is a review of the highest retail price for LPG 3 kg in Yogyakarta so it could be relevant for agents who experienced the highest transaction cost.
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Galchynsky, Leonid, and Andriy Svydenko. "Multiagent model of prices dispersion on the retail market of petroleum products." SHS Web of Conferences 65 (2019): 04021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20196504021.

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In this study a multiagent model of behaviour of the dispersion of retail prices for petroleum products has been developed, depending on changes of external factors, in particular, sharp changes in wholesale prices. Therefore, there is a need for a model that would not only have the potential to test the existence of a price dispersion as a consequence of the specifics of competition in the market of petroleum products and consumer search strategies, but would have the ability to quantify the price variance as a consequence of the behaviour of individual market agents. The basis of the behaviour of market agents of this model is algorithms of price oligopolistic competition from traders and user price search strategies. Calibration models and verification of historical data of the Kyiv region, where they were previously established empirical data on the dispersion of prices showed a fairly good correspondence between the model and the actual data. In particular, the existence of a price pattern has been established at jump-like changes of wholesale prices. The presence of price strategy of buyers, which are based on the strategy of the base price, is shown. The coincidence of model and real data still needs to be improved.
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Okech, Benjamin A., and Patrick M. Nyoike. "Energy sector liberalization in Kenya: critical policy issues in petroleum retail market." Energy Policy 27, no. 1 (January 1999): 45–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0301-4215(98)00059-7.

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Borhan, Resty Izzaty, Oh Wei Fhang, and Shahryar Sorooshian. "Operations Analysis: Practice on Performance Measurement in Supply Chain." Advanced Materials Research 739 (August 2013): 737–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.739.737.

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The paper presents the research report studied at the largest natural gas producer and the petroleum retail market leader in Malaysia. The study is to understand the logistics performance measurement in the supply chain, including the theoretical discussion on data collected and logistic performance of a real organization using the balanced scorecard. Besides that, the study will also access the performance of the company and followed by identifying the problems and provides recommendations for improvements.
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B Bhat, Rajani. "Bitcoin - A Boon to Economy or Bane to Sustainability." Shanlax International Journal of Commerce 7, no. 4 (October 1, 2019): 42–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.34293/commerce.v7i4.598.

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Since the formation of Bitcoin in 2009, various private digital currencies have been presented. Bitcoin is by a long shot the best one. It has been getting a great deal of media consideration, and its all out market worth has arrived at 20 billions USD in March 2017. More importantly, a number of central banks started recently to explore the adoption of cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies for retail and large-value payments. Bitcoin is a digital currency based on a peer-topeer payment system managed by an open source software and characterized by lower transaction costs, greater security and scalability than fiat money and no need of a central bank. In spite of criticisms about illegal uses and social consequences, it is attracting the interest of the scientific as well as economic community. Be that as it may, notwithstanding Bitcoin’s worth, the paper clarified, physical stores have been delayed to acknowledge it as a technique for installment. Subsequently, a few lookers are getting to be critical about whether this tech-trendy person digital money, which everybody has known about however the vast majority don’t genuinely comprehend, will ever supplant conventional cash. Only one exchange can use as much vitality as a whole family unit does in seven days, and there are around 300,000 exchanges each day. That vitality request is usually met through petroleum product vitality sources, which, alongside contaminating air and water, radiate ozone harming substances that reason environmental change. At the end of the day, Bitcoins are adding to the warming of the climate without giving a noteworthy open advantage consequently. Some Bitcoin lovers guarantee that it will in the long run become a standard money, and that the cryptogovernance framework whereupon it’s manufactured could really support the earth. In any case, the Bitcoin market is unstable, its future dinky. Off-the-rack PCs used to be incredible enough to mine Bitcoins. Presently, on the grounds that the math issues are so perplexing, they should utilize particular equipment called Application Specific Integrated Circuit, or ASIC. These mining machines are huge and run hot, and the individuals who use them—either Bitcoin mining organizations or Bitcoin devotees cooperating—utilize a great deal of power to do as such. Organizations and associations that mine bitcoin will once in a while have a huge number of these machines pressed into far reaching distribution centers. Hence, the present study is an attempt to define and evaluate the current trends of the literature concerned with the sustainability of bitcoin, considering the environmental impacts and economic aspects. The study is divided into four parts – first part explains the concept of bitcoin in detail with its history. The second part of the study details the statement of the problem. The third part deals with results and discussions and the last is the concluding part. In the results and discussion part, the data dealing with trends in the value of bitcoin in USD and in Indian markets are exhibited. The main exchanges dealing with bitcoin in India are then given and the number of bitcoins available and their market capitalisation worldwide is shown. From the analysis, it is very clear that the value of bitcoin has tremendously increased over the period of time. One of the main allegations against the bitcoin trading is its fluctuating volatility depicted. It’s because of this issue, that bitcoins are considered to be very dangerous commodity to be traded. Also, form the point of sustainability, it emerges that the transition of the whole monetary system in the new cryptocurrency will result in an unacceptable amount of energy consumed to mine new bitcoins and to maintain the entire virtual monetary system, and probably bitcoin will remain a niche currency.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Retail petroleum markets"

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Wills-Johnson, Nick. "Competition in a spatial retail petroleum market." Thesis, Curtin University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/197.

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This thesis examines the behaviour of retail petroleum markets, with a case study examining prices in Perth, Australia. The aim of the thesis is two-fold. Firstly, it aims to extend the Edgeworth Cycles literature by showing how a simple, distance-based model of duopolistic competition can give rise to Edgeworth Cycles. Secondly, it makes use of the results of this model to build a model of the structure of the Perth market and to explore competition in that network.In the empirical component of the thesis, I explore whether network structure influences both the prices charged by each retail petroleum outlet and the shape of price cycles exhibited by each retail petroleum outlet. In addition, having performed a spectral analysis on prices and finding that most retail petroleum outlets do not follow a single cycle, but in fact use cycles of differing lengths, mostly seven and ten-day cycles, I explore whether network structure influences these choices or not. In the empirical analysis, I find evidence that network structure does, in fact, influence both price and the nature of cycles.
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Books on the topic "Retail petroleum markets"

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Ervin, Michael J. Canadian retail petroleum markets study: A review of competitiveness in the Canadian refined petroleum marketing industry. Calgary: MJ Ervin & Associates Management Consultants, 1997.

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United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on the Judiciary. Amending the antitrust laws in order to preserve and promote wholesale and retail competition in the retail gasoline market and to protect the motoring safety of the American public: Report together with dissenting views (to accompany S. 1140). [Washington, D.C.?: U.S. G.P.O., 1986.

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Anticompetitive practices in the retail gasoline market: Hearing before the Subcommittee on Antitrust, Monopolies, and Business Rights of the Committee on the Judiciary, United States Senate, One Hundred Second Congress, second session, on S. 790, S. 2041, and S. 2043, May 6, 1992. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 1992.

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Ellis, Jones P., and Institute of Petroleum (Great Britain). Energy Economics Group., eds. Economics of the retail petroleum market: Papers presented at an Energy Economics Group conference on 7th May, 1986. London: Institute of Petroleum, 1986.

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Conference papers on the topic "Retail petroleum markets"

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Leighty, William C. "Running the World on Renewables: Hydrogen Transmission Pipelines With Firming Geologic Storage." In ASME 2008 Power Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/power2008-60031.

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The world’s richest renewable energy resources — of large geographic extent and high intensity — are stranded: far from end-users with inadequate or nonexistent gathering and transmission systems to deliver the energy. The energy output of most renewables varies greatly, at time scales of seconds to seasons: the energy capture assets thus operate at inherently low capacity factor (CF); energy delivery to end-users is not “firm”. New electric transmission systems, or fractions thereof, dedicated to renewables, will suffer the same low CF, and represent substantial stranded capital assets, which increases the cost of delivered renewable-source energy. Electric energy storage cannot affordably firm large renewables at annual scale. At gigawatt (GW = 1,000 MW) scale, renewable-source electricity from diverse sources, worldwide, can be converted to hydrogen and oxygen, via high-pressure-output electrolyzers, with the hydrogen pipelined to load centers (cities, refineries, chemical plants) for use as vehicle fuel, combined-heat-and-power generation on the retail side of the customers’ meters, ammonia production, and petroleum refinery feedstock. The oxygen byproduct may be sold to adjacent dry biomass and / or coal gasification plants. Figures 1–3. New, large, solution-mined salt caverns in the southern Great Plains, and probably elsewhere in the world, may economically store enough energy as compressed gaseous hydrogen (GH2) to “firm” renewables at annual scale, adding great market and strategic value to diverse, stranded, rich, renewable resources. Figures 2 and 3. For example, Great Plains, USA, wind energy, if fully harvested and “firmed” and transmitted to markets, could supply the entire energy consumption of USA. If gathered, transmitted, and delivered as hydrogen, about 15,000 new solution-mined salt caverns, of ∼8 million cubic feet (225,000 cubic meters) each, would be required, at an incremental capital cost to the generation-transmission system of ∼5%. We report the results of several studies of the technical and economic feasibility of large-scale renewables — hydrogen systems. Windplants are the lowest-cost new renewable energy sources; we focus on wind, although concentrating solar power (CSP) is probably synergistic and will become attractive in cost. The largest and richest renewable resources in North America, with high average annual windspeed and sunlight, are stranded in the Great Plains: extant electric transmission capacity is insignificant relative to the resource potential. Large, new, electric transmission systems will be costly, difficult to site and permit, and may be difficult to finance, because of public opposition, uncertainties about transmission cost recovery, and inherently low CF in renewables service. The industrial gas companies’ decades of success and safety in operating thousands of km of GH2 pipelines worldwide is encouraging, but these are relatively short, small-diameter pipelines, and operating at low and constant pressure: not subject to the technical demands of renewables-hydrogen service (RHS), nor to the economic challenge of delivering low-volumetric-energy-density GH2 over hundreds or thousands of km to compete with other hydrogen sources at the destination. The salt cavern storage industry is also mature; several GH2 storage caverns have been in service for over twenty years; construction and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs are well understood; O&M costs are low.
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Saleh Al Rashdi, Hamood. "Graduate Development Programme and Future Skills." In ADIPEC. SPE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/210969-ms.

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Abstract People development and continuous improvement has been an instrumental pillar for Petroleum Development Oman. This was strongly evident from PDO's vision "To be renowned and respected for the excellence of our people and the value we create for Oman, and shareholders". Hence ensuring talent pipelines and feedstock has been a continuous journey and improvement since years. Having said that, with focus on building capabilities for future to sustain and hold the flagship of PDO, in 2013 marks a great millstone forming up solid "PDO Graduate Development Programme" to continue the people development journey of building capabilities and the objective mainly was to ensure feedstock of talents in the pipeline, building future leaders and professionals, equip them with important core technical and commercial skills and competencies in order to reduce time to autonomy. Given the challenging VUCA world market that is ever changing through different challenging conditions, coupled with challenges on shortage of talents and retention, it becomes critical to reimagine how to develop, retain, sustain, and equip younger professionals with skills that would benefit them now and in the future. Hence, the objective of this paper is present the future ready skills that have been identified and planned as part of the graduate development programme, and the methodology was followed to ensure value adding, sustainability and continuously improving our young professionals in order to contribute to PDO's business and energy shift.
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Rodrigues, Klin, Auribel Dos Santos, Hans Oskarsson, Szymon Jankowski, and Paul Ferm. "Smart Retarder for Cementing Systems with Accelerated Set and Gel Strength Properties with Potential for Improved Operational Safety." In Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/208074-ms.

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Abstract Cement retarders available in the market include the traditional lignosulfonates and synthetic copolymers. Commonly, lignosulfonates lack batch to batch reproducibility which hinders formulation consistency. Both lignosulfonates and synthetic polymers will retard the set of cement. However, their chemistry dictates that they also slow down setting time which increases waiting on cement time, thus increasing rig costs. This paper proposes a new smart cement retarder that overcomes these traditional negatives. A number of polymers were designed and synthesized aiming for a chemical able to retard the set of cement while also acting as an accelerator once the cement slurry was in place. These polymers were tested for cement retardation performance using a high-pressure high-temperature (HPHT) consistometer. Static Gel Strength Analyzers (SGSA) measurements were used to determine compressive strength development as well as static gel strength development while curing under downhole temperature and pressure conditions. The new smart cement retarder delivers cement retardation in the 125 - 350°F temperature range and can be used at higher temperatures using a co-retarder. This unique material delivers an accelerated set and attains 500 psi compressive strength very quickly which minimizes waiting on cement time. In addition, this new retarder builds static gel strength rapidly and minimizes gel transition time. Upscaling to field application, the top of the cementing column takes the longest to set. By having this inbuilt accelerator into the system, it allows the top of the column to set as fast as possible gaining the needed compressive strength at the weakest point of the cement column. This should ensure the quality of the cement job in comparison with conventional retarders with significant operating cost savings. The new smart cement retarder will simplify cementing formulations due to its flexibility in dosage range of the retarder within the slurry and improve the quality of the cement jobs. As a result, the proposed smart cement retarder can help with minimizing risk of failures during production and possibly improving safety.
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Al-Abdulwahed, Khalid, and Nouf Al-Ashwan. "Female Vocational Training." In SPE Middle East Oil & Gas Show and Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/204528-ms.

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Abstract The development of any country lies in all members of society in a country, the old generation to the younger and new ones. After launching the vision of 2030 pillars, the circle of women barriers becomes wider and unlimited in the field of employment. In order to merge women in the oil and gas industry, the first milestone must be considered is creating opportunities in the labour market alongside educating and training them to acquire great learning and hone skills that qualify the women to be in the industrial workforce. It will widely contribute to the socio-economic change in a country. The female has individual skills and capabilities that the companies’ needs to achieve its business objectives. The institutes which are fundamentally structured; can open another facility which is targeted the female vocational and technical training based on the same assets (strategies & policies). Another way to do so is through collaboration with international vocational institutions, local female universities and colleges. These days there is no doubt that the oil and gas companies are critically needed for the local talents and diversity of its range. As an example, SPSP has planned to inaugurate a new female vocational & technical center, in the meantime will offer a major source of job opportunities for well trained and qualified young Saudi women that how we encourage and retain more Saudi female to the petroleum energy sector. The training programs will include Health & Safety, and Electrical Diploma. There is a lack of trained and qualified Saudi female technical workforce at the industry sector. To solve this problem, the education and the labour sectors must work simultaneously to empower the female in this field. Many companies need to retool the female candidates from functional roles such as HR or Finance to target them into practice hands-on roles. To sum up, as Vision 2030 of rewarding opportunities to the women stated, ‘’ we are directing significant investment toward unlocking their talents and supporting their contribution to the Kingdom’s economic growth.’’ Business leaders should call for an action to increase female’s opportunity at the energy sector side by side the government’s efforts in the female vocational training programs.
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Reports on the topic "Retail petroleum markets"

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Davis, Lucas, Shaun McRae, and Enrique Seira Bejarano. An Economic Perspective on Mexico's Nascent Deregulation of Retail Petroleum Markets. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w24547.

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Monetary Policy Report - April 2022. Banco de la República, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2022.

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Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).
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