Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Revealed and stated preference methods'

In a controlled lab experiment, we investigate hypothetical biases in the value of time by comparing stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) values attached to unexpected waiting times. The SP and RP choice sets are identical in terms of design with the only difference being that the RP choices have real consequences in terms of unexpected waiting times and monetary incentives. We find a substantial hypothetical bias with the average SP value of time being only 71% of the corresponding RP value. The bias is mainly driven by participants who have scheduling constraints during the time of the unexpected wait. Scheduling constraints are taken into account to a much lesser extent in the SP setting than in the RP setting, presumably because only in the latter, the consequences of ignoring them are costly. We find evidence that this effect is stronger for persons with relatively low cognitive ability.

Most governments in the world provide some publicly funded healthcare to their citizens, but given the scarcity of resources relative to potential demand, some form of rationing or priority setting is required, and some patients must be denied effective treatment. The thesis took the position that an explicit approach based on maximising the value that society derives from healthcare is the preferred way to address this rationing problem. Conventional health economic practice proposes that value should be equated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), leading to a policy of QALY maximisation, but, it is argued, not necessarily value maximisation. A more inclusive approach to defining value, based on societal preferences, may maximise overall well-being and be associated with greater trust and legitimacy in the priority setting process. The thesis identified patient and program characteristics that appeared to have empirical evidence of public support as well as a defensible ethical justification in determining the strength of a patient’s claim to societal healthcare resources. The relative strength of preferences for these characteristics, or the equity-efficiency trade-off, was estimated using stated preference methods. Two different methods, discrete choice experiments and constant-sum paired comparisons, were used and the response behaviours of the two elicitations were compared to identify a preferred method for eliciting societal preferences in the context of healthcare. Both methods found a statistically significant equity-efficiency trade-off in an age and sex representative sample of the Canadian public as well as a convenience sample of decision-making agents. This suggested that society would be willing to sacrifice some degree of efficiency in maximising individual life year gains in order to prioritise other characteristics consistent with the promotion of equity or distributive justice in the allocation of healthcare resources. However, differences between the results of the two elicitation methods suggested some systematic procedural variance.

The aim of this research was to construct a freight mode choice model, from the perspective of New Zealand freight shippers, identifying the possibility of mode substitution effects. Shipper’s freight modal choice depends on freight demand and infrastructure as well as the quality of service characteristics of alternative modes, such as transport cost, delivery time, reliability, damage and loss and frequency of service. Freight logistics characteristics, such as the attributes of the shipper, the attributes of the commodities to be transported, and the spatial attributes of shipments, strongly influence modal choice. In New Zealand, due to the heterogeneity of firms and issues of confidentiality and reliability of data, relatively little research has been done on modelling freight mode choice. This research involved revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) surveys of representative freight shippers and agents. User-specific data make it possible to better identify the dependence between shipper’s mode shift behaviour and freight logistics in New Zealand circumstances. Moreover, by applying a discrete choice approach, the possibility of mode substitution effects was investigated. This research approach was prompted by substantial changes in New Zealand’s freight transport patterns due to the increasing use of logistic processes, and previously developed models using a four-stage approach fail to model elements of firms’ characteristics (i.e. size of shipments, delivery distance, export volume, product shelf-life, size and location of firm, number of road fleets, and relationship with contracted carriers). The outcomes of this research have shown that many of the operational and logistical influences that affect mode choice vary with the shipper and the industry. As a result, public policy makers should recognize that effective policy must consider both the needs of the transportation service provider and user. In particular, the public policy maker should recognize that freight transport mode choice results from an array of interactions among transportation characteristics, logistics characteristics and product characteristics.

Thesis (MSc)-- Stellenbosch University, 2015.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Today, development of innovative modes of transport is taking place in order to accelerate the economic growth of transport users as well as reducing the environmental pollution, through an improved transport system. These new transport modes are associated with advances in modern technologies that are able to provide solutions to different problems in the transport industry of developing countries. This research was motivated by the cost reduction and environmental benefits, accruing from the use of new technology of Hybrid Lighter Than Air (HLTA) transport mode. The intention then, was to evaluate the modes choice preference of transport users in the case where the HLTA is introduced in Rwanda. The new mode of HLTA is believed to make a contribution in solving transport challenges stemming from the fact that Rwanda is a landlocked country. The landlockedness is associated with lack of access to seaports, remoteness and isolation from major markets. This continues to impede the development of the country and the problem is exacerbated by the fact that, road transport mode dominates the transport operations in Rwanda. From an economic point of view, road transport causes high transport economic costs for both passengers and freight, and increases, to a large extent, environmental pollution. In order to achieve the transport users’ modes choice preferences, this study has developed and used an efficient survey design process of Stated Preference. Drawing from current literature, Stated Preference is an accurate tool for data collection of studies that relate to choice preferences. This technique made it possible to design questionnaires by hypothetically creating choice games using three attributes; i.e. In Vehicle Travel Time, Waiting Time and Travel Cost for available alternative modes of transport. Thereafter, the collection of data took place by interviewing the transport users of three routes that accommodate heavy traffic in the study area, Rwanda. The SPSS version 21 computer programme was used to analyse mode choice preference data and then for a matter of checking the results, STATA S/E 11.1 was used. Among the results, these computer programmes reported coefficients of attributes and these were applied in the Binomial logistic regression mathematical structure in the model building process. The model refinement and validation processes that followed, have suggested a removal of Waiting Time from the explanatory variables. This was due to poor performance that Waiting Time has demonstrated in terms of prediction and significance. Then, magnitudes of utilities of models were determined based on the two remaining variables. The choice probability value of each alternative on different routes was calculated; and thus transport demand of each mode was quantified. According to the results, transport users in Rwanda would prefer and use HLTA in case it starts operating. For both cargo and passenger transport, HLTA was chosen above other modes set into choice process, with probabilities of 79.7%, 86.1%, and 58% for HLTA-Passenger on long, medium and short routes respectively and 71%, 56% and 77% for HLTA-Cargo on long, medium and short route respectively. The passenger transport volume share of HLTA-Passenger projected in the year 2014 was found to be 6269256 passengers against a total annual passenger traffic demand of 7941752 passengers on the three routes considered. The annual freight volume of HLTA-Cargo was 10947921 tonnes against a total of 16935637 tonnes on all the routes considered. These high demand volumes of HLTA were due to high choice probabilities which in turn, were due to small values of attributes that HLTA has got compared to those of other modes. It is, therefore, proposed that more research should be conducted to study the viability of HLTA use in Rwanda. While doing so, such studies should consider issues of economic viability, environmental benefit research and other studies engaging demand data, since these data items would be published as the main results of this current work.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ontwikkeling van innoverende vervoermiddels vind deesdae plaas ten einde die ekonomiese groei van die gebruikers van vervoer te versnel, asook om maniere te soek om omgewingsbesoedeling te bekamp deur die verbetering van vervoerstelsels. Hierdie nuwe vervoermiddels word geassosieer met vooruitgang in moderne tegnologie, wat ten doel het om oplossings te voorsien vir verskeie probleme in die vervoerindustrie van ontwikkelende lande. Hierdie navorsing is gemotiveer deur kostevermindering en omgewingsvoordele, wat uit die gebruik van die nuwe tegnologie van Hibriede Ligter as Lug vervoermiddels (lugskip) voortspruit. Die bedoeling was dan om die keuse van vervoermiddelvoorkeure deur gebruikers, te evalueer ingeval die bogenoemde lugskip in Rwanda as vervoermiddel implementeer sou word. Daar word beweer dat hierdie nuwe lugskip vervoermiddel ‘n aandeel sal hê om die vervoeruitdagingsprobleme van Rwanda, wat landingeslote is, te help oplos. Hierdie landingeslotenheid word geassosieer met ‘n gebrek aan toegang tot seehawens, afstand en afsondering van groot markte. Voorts belemmer dit die ontwikkeling van die land en die probleem word vererger deur die feit dat padvervoer die vervoer bedrywighede in die land oorheers. Padvervoer veroorsaak hoë vervoer onkoste in die land se ekonomie, vir beide passasiers- en vragvervoer, en daar is ‘n aansienlike toename in omgewingsbesoedeling. Ten einde die vervoergebruikers se vervoermiddelkeuse voorkeure te bereik, het hierdie studie 'n doeltreffende opname-ontwerp proses van Verklaarde Voorkeur ontwikkel en gebruik. Uit kennis van huidige literatuur, word aanvaar dat Verklaarde Voorkeur 'n akkurate instrument is vir data-versameling vir studies wat verband hou met die keuse van voorkeure. Hierdie tegniek het dit moontlik gemaak om vraelyste te ontwerp deur die hipotetiese skepping van keuse speletjies wat drie eienskappe gebruik, naamlik In-Voertuig Reistyd, Wagtyd en Reiskoste vir beskikbare alternatiewe vervoermiddels. Daarna het dataversameling plaasgevind deurdat onderhoude met vervoergebruikers van drie swaarverkeerroetes in Rwanda gevoer is. Die SPSS weergawe 21 rekenaarprogram is gebruik om die vervoermiddel-keuse voorkeurdata te analiseer, en daarna, ten einde die uitslae te ondersoek, is die STATA S/E 11.1 program gebruik. As deel van die uitslae het hierdie rekenaarprogramme berig oor eienskappe van koëffisiënte. Hierdie uitslae is toegepas in die Binomiale logistieke regressie wiskundige struktuur in ‘n modelbou-proses. Die model validasieproses wat gevolg het, het voorgestel dat wagtyd weggelaat word as een van die verklarende veranderlikes. Dit was as gevolg van swak prestasie wat wagtyd getoon het in terme van voorspelling en betekenis. Daarna is groottes van modelle se nuttigheid bepaal op grond van die twee oorblywende veranderlikes. Laastens is die keuse waarskynlikheidswaardes van elke alternatief op verskillende roetes bereken, en sodoende is die vervoeraanvraag van elke vervoermiddel gekwantifiseer. Volgens die uitslae sou vervoergebruikers in Rwanda die lugskip as vervoermiddel verkies en gebruik, indien dit implementer sou word. Vir beide vrag- en passasiersvervoer, is die lugskip bo ander vorme gekies wat in die keuse proses beskikbaar was, met waarskynlikhede van 79.7%, 86.1%, en 58 vir lugskip-passasier op 'n lang, medium en kort roete onderskeidelik, en waarskynlikhede van 71%, 56% en 77% vir lugskip-vrag op die lang, medium en kort roetes onderskeidelik. Die projeksie van die passasier vervoer volume gedeelte van lugskip-passasier vir die jaar 2014 het bevind dat 6269256 passasiers uit 'n totale passasiersverkeer aanvraag van 7941752, geprojekteer vir 2014, op die drie oorweegde roetes voorspel was. Die vrag volume van lugskip-vrag was 10947921 ton, teenoor 'n totaal van 16935637 ton op al die oorweegde roetes. Hierdie hoë aanvraag volumes van lugskip vervoer was as gevolg van hoë keuse waarskynlikhede wat op hul beurt, as gevolg van die klein waardes van eienskappe van die lugskip in vergelyking met dié van ander vervoermiddels veroorsaak is. Die voorstel is dus dat meer navorsing gedoen moet word om die lewensvatbaarheid van die gebruik van lugskip vervoer in Rwanda te bestudeer. Terselfdertyd moet sodanige studies kwessies oorweeg wat die ekonomiese lewensvatbaar van die vervoermiddel ondersoek, voordele vir die omgewing inhou en ander studies waar aanvraagdata oorweeg word, aangesien sulke data alreeds gepubliseer sal wees as die belangrikste resultate van hierdie huidige studie.

The Indian Railways (IR) have, over the past four decades, been steadily losing market share, in both passenger and freight markets. In the case of freight, they have gone from being the dominant mode to being carriers of bulk traffic only. Most of the general goods, high value, traffic has shifted to road. In line with the pattern of economic growth, the manufactured goods sector is the fastest growing sector of the economy. This leads on one hand, to exclusion of JR from an important, and growing, sector of the economy and on the other hand to heavy strains on the already saturated road network, higher environmental dis-benefits and higher costs of petroleum imports. The Container Corporation of India (CONCOR), a subsidiary of IR, is now attempting to enter the domestic freight market, to recapture some of this freight traffic. The present work has been taken up, with the final objective of developing a methodology, for identifying sectors where viable intermodal services can be offered, in comparison to road, as well as rail, services and to determine the price and service levels required for the same. In the absence of any revealed preference (RP) data, as well as any previous work on valuation of attributes for the different sectors, we have used an Adaptive Stated Preference (SP) design for our work. The Leeds Adaptive Stated Preference (LASP) software has been modified and used for the work. Various alternatives have also been examined, with regard to the approach to be used for analysis of the survey data and we have finally decided to use individual level models aggregated using weighted averages as these appear to provide the most robust estimates. We have developed models for costing of, door to door, freight movement by road, rail and intermodal services. These models have been used in conjunction with the demand model to assess the viability of the different services for the sectors considered. Our findings indicate that, using fully allocated door to door costs, rail is a clear leader for distances over about 500 Km, on cost basis alone. However, when the service quality factors are taken into account, intermodal services become more attractive for the high value, damage prone, products while road services are more attractive for the lower value products. Rail services break even under 1500 Km only in a few of the situations considered by us and Intermodal service break even under 1500 Km for a large number of the situations (in case of use of new high speed wagons this breakeven shifts to between 500 to 1000 Km). Rail services would need to match the quality of road services, or be priced on marginal cost basis, to be competitive, as compared to road services. Intermodal services can be quite profitable, with presently attained transit times using the older (BFK) wagons, if they are offered at least thrice a week. The larger firms also appear to be more likely to go for intermodal services, than smaller firms. In case of the newer, high speed wagons, the increased capital costs are offset by the gains due to faster turn-around and there is a substantial improvement in the quality of service (time & reliability) that can be provided. This provides an opportunity for a highly profitable service to be provided with the induction of the new wagons.

In this study Stated Preference (SP) methods are used to investigate alternative transport policies at the University of Cape Town. The main purpose of the study is to investigate how commuters respond to increases in the cost of parking on campus. A sample of academic staff, support/admin staff and students was used in this study. A mixed sample of 50 respondents participated in the study. These people used private cars to campus but had occasionally commuted to campus by public transport.

Understanding of the shift behaviours are critical to formulate effective policies to encourage mode shift and anticipate the increasing demands of public transport services impacted by the shifting behaviours. This study aims to investigate the mode choice behaviour of commuters by utilising the nation-wide survey of commuters in Australia and employing the state-of-the-art Multinomial Logit Models. This study has investigated three critical choice behaviours issues: commuters' satisfaction towards train fare, consistency between commuters' current behaviours against their future preferences, and policy interventions to influence mode shift. Its findings have demonstrated significant theoretical and practical contributions to the commuters' choice behaviours.

This thesis is a collection of four papers; one centred on a policy application of Contingent Valuation (CV) and three essays focused on econometric advances in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE). The former paper represents the first attempt to appraise odour externalities in an urban context employing DBCV. The survey was administered to a sample of 1000 households in Le Havre (France). Results reveal a positive WTP for eliminating odour externalities which vary across areas, respondent characteristics and perceptions. The potential of latent class analysis in DCE is explored in the latter three papers. The PhD has been mainly focused on developing new tools for accommodating heterogeneity in tastes, variances and heuristics employing latent class (LC) analysis. As a result I formalised a type of LC models that can accommodate for heteroscedasticity and/or heterogeneity (depending on assumptions and parameterisation) within class as well as different heuristics across classes. More specifically the second paper introduces class heterogeneity within a LC model, which is obtained by specifying a discrete mixture of sets of continuous distributions. The model is applied to both simulated and real data in order to demonstrate its flexibility and the advantages for policy appraisal. The third paper introduces and formalises the idea of a heteroscedastic LC model using data from two recreational site choice studies (one elicited through stated preference methods and one through revealed preference methods) to compare various model specifications. In the fourth and final paper, the well known problem of preference and variance instability due to learning and fatigue in DCE is tackled by applying a scale-adjusted latent class model to uncover both types of instability simultaneously and probabilistically across the sample. Findings highlight the advantages in terms of model fit, interpretation and policy implications, that can be achieved when both types of instability are addressed concurrently.

With theoretical foundations in welfare theory, the cost benefit analysis (CBA) technique is a powerful tool for assessing benefits particularly where markets do not exist or would fail (for example due to the existence of public goods) or have become potentially politically excluded (such as the health sector). Unlike other economic evaluation techniques, costs and benefits are measured in monetary terms allowing for comparisons within and between different sectors of the economy for resource allocation decisions. Using contingent valuation (CV) techniques, people's preferences for goods are determined by finding out what they would be willing to pay (WTP) for specified benefits or improvements; or accept (WTA), as compensation for withdrawal or loss of benefit. While the use of WTP methods has grown in other sectors, the uptake in health has been limited. A long-standing criticism is that stated WTP estimates may be poor indicators of actual WTP, calling into question their validity and the use of such estimates for welfare valuation. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the criterion validity of CV-WTP studies. A four-pronged approach including critical appraisals of the available literature and evidence on criterion validity and empirical analyses was adopted. The thesis established the scarcity in criterion validity assessments, particularly in the health sector and that evidence on the criterion validity of CV-WTP is more varied than authors are presenting. The variety in the methods used to assess and report criterion validity assessments is demonstrated. Further, the impact of the analysis of hypothetical WTP on criterion validity assessments and conclusions thereof is demonstrated. The empirical analyses further demonstrate the differences in predictions and predictors of WTP analyses, discussing the effect of these on criterion validity assessments and conclusions. Finally, the thesis offers suggestions for the reporting of criterion validity assessments, in efforts to improve the method.

Travel demand forecasting is essential for many decisions, such as infrastructure investments and policy measures. Traditionally travel demand modelling has considered trip frequency, mode, destination and route choice. This thesis considers two other choice dimensions, hypothesised to have implications for travel demand forecasting. The first part investigates how the increased possibilities to overcome space that ICT (information and communication technology) provides, can be integrated in travel demand forecasting models. We find that possibilities of modelling substitution effects are limited, irrespective of data source and modelling approach. Telecommuting explains, however, a very small part of variation in work trip frequency. It is therefore not urgent to include effects from telecommuting in travel demand forecasting. The results indicate that telecommuting is a privilege for certain groups of employees, and we therefore expect that negative attitudes from management, job suitability and lack of equipment are important obstacles. We find also that company benefits can be obtained from telecommuting. No evidences that telecommuting gives rise to urban sprawl is, however, found. Hence, there is ground for promoting telecommuting from a societal, individual and company perspective. The second part develops a departure time choice model in a mixed logit framework. This model explains how travellers trade-off travel time, travel time variability, monetary and scheduling costs, when choosing departure time. We explicitly account for correlation in unobserved heterogeneity over repeated SP choices, which was fundamental for accurate estimation of the substitution pattern. Temporal constraints at destination are found to mainly restrict late arrival. Constraints at origin mainly restrict early departure. Sensitivity to travel time uncertainty depends on trip type and intended arrival time. Given appropriate input data and a calibrated dynamic assignment model, the model can be applied to forecast peak-spreading effects in congested networks. Combined stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data is used, which has provided an opportunity to compare observed and stated behaviour. Such analysis has previously not been carried out and indicates that there are systematic differences in RP and SP data.<br>QC 20100825

The overall purpose and contribution of this thesis is increasing the understanding of components of the value of environmental goods. It investigates how the public perceive environmental goods (lay people's perception) and the elements of it that they value. Providing such knowledge contributes to improving valuation methods e.g. the use of the Choice Experiment (CE) for valuing forest biodiversity conservation. Increasing knowledge oflay people's perception and mental constructs of environmental goods can help researchers to know how they can present environmental goods in CEs which align with respondents' perceptions and to further understand the appropriate way of measuring these values. To fulfill the aim of the thesis, the broadleaved forests in southem Scandinavia were chosen as a case study area where both qualitative and quantitative methods were applied to increase understanding of lay people's perception of forest environmental goods and services and to use this for improving stated preference valuation methods. The thesis includes two parts. The first is an introduction to the overall framework of the thesis, an overview of the objectives and an explanation of the main theories behind the CE method. The second part includes four papers. The first two papers mostly focus on improving methodological aspects of CEs, while the next two papers use the result of a CE to generate a better and more comprehensive information base for policy formulation and decision making procedures. The first paper provides input for the three other papers which investigate lay people's perceptions and mental constructs of concepts of nature, forest envirOlID1ental goods and services. The results contribute to the research field by illustrating that 'diversity of animals and plants', 'natural appearance and dynamics of ecosystem', and 'peace and quiet' are the most preferred attributes of forest ecosystems which were most frequently mentioned by lay people compared with other attributes of forest ecosystems. In addition, it was found that regardless of familiarity with the various ecological scientific telminologies, lay people had an intuitive understanding of ecological concepts such as biodiversity. The analyses demonstrate that respondents' perceptions and values of biodiversity could be framed in two categories: as a good in itself, and for its regulatory function. It was also revealed that attitudes to forest and its biodiversity may be rooted in respondents' mental constructs. This can be useful in targeting policies conceming conservation management. The second paper applies these insights from the qualitative investigation of nature perception to estimate WTP for forest biodiversity conservation.

The question of how to measure and classify people's risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of economics. Inspired by the multitude of ways used to elicit risk preferences, we conduct a holistic investigation of the most prevalent method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under various versions of MPLs as well as yield unstable results within a 30-minute time frame. We determine the most stable elicitation method with the highest forecast accuracy by using multiple measures of within-method consistency and by using behavior in two economically relevant games as benchmarks. A derivation of the well-known method by Holt and Laury (American Economic Review 92(5):1644-1655, 2002), where the highest payoff is varied instead of probabilities, emerges as the best MPL method in both dimensions. As we pinpoint each MPL characteristic's effect on the revealed preference and its consistency, our results have implications for preference elicitation procedures in general.

This thesis uses zonal travel cost method (ZTCM) to estimate consumer surplus of Peace &amp; Love festival in Borlänge, Sweden. The study defines counties as zones of origin of the visitors. Visiting rates from each zone are estimated based on survey data. The study is novel due to the fact that mostly TCM has been applied in the environmental and recreational sector, not for short term events, like P&amp;L festival. The analysis shows that travel cost has a significantly negative effect on visiting rate as expected. Even though income has previously shown to be significant in similar studies, it turns out to be insignificant in this study. A point estimate for the total consumer surplus of P&amp;L festival is 35.6 million Swedish kronor. However, this point estimate is associated with high uncertainty since a 95 % confidence interval for it is (17.9, 53.2). It is also important to note that the estimated value only represents one part of the total economic value, the other values of the festival's totaleconomic value have not been estimated in this thesis.

Submitted by Vinicius Kfuri (vkfuri@gmail.com) on 2014-08-26T19:35:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Vinicius Kfuri.pdf: 2222768 bytes, checksum: 9c1f03c937603641cc15647f9bac7343 (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro (gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2014-08-29T17:35:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Vinicius Kfuri.pdf: 2222768 bytes, checksum: 9c1f03c937603641cc15647f9bac7343 (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro (gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2014-08-29T17:46:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Vinicius Kfuri.pdf: 2222768 bytes, checksum: 9c1f03c937603641cc15647f9bac7343 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-23T14:00:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Vinicius Kfuri.pdf: 2222768 bytes, checksum: 9c1f03c937603641cc15647f9bac7343 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-20<br>One of the most popular products of the world is going through severe transformations and, as a consequence, the beer style we know as Pilsner (Light Lager) is no longer the only available option in the market. Given that this sector has a strong growth potential in Brazil, the main objective of this dissertation is to reveal the craft beer consumers preferences using stated preference methods through questionnaires that invite the subject to choose among options related to Color, Palate, Aroma and Alcohol. After stratifying the sample by Age and Experience, the results show that Palate, followed by Color and then Aroma are the most relevant attributes for the Experienced subject while the Non-Experienced value Color as the most relevant attribute, followed by Palate, with Aroma being an irrelevant attribute in his choices. The atribute Alcohol revealed itself insignificant in all stratifications.<br>Um dos produtos mais consumidos do mundo vem passando por grandes transformações, e a cerveja que conhecemos como tipo Pilsen (Light Lager) deixou de ser opção única nas prateleiras. Dado o potencial de crescimento do setor no Brasil, o objetivo deste trabalho é mapear as preferências do consumidor de cerveja artesanal, usando técnicas de preferência declarada, a partir da aplicação de questionários que convidam o entrevistado a elencar suas preferências diante das combinações dos atributos Cor, Paladar, Aroma e Álcool. A partir da estratificação da amostra em Idade e Experiência, os resultados indicam que Paladar, seguido da Cor e, por último, o Aroma são os atributos mais relevantes para o entrevistado Experiente, enquanto o Não Experiente atribui maior peso à Cor, seguida do Paladar, sendo o Aroma um atributo irrelevante em suas escolhas. O atributo Álcool revelou-se insignificante em todas as estratificações realizadas.

AgÃncia Nacional do PetrÃleo<br>A utilizaÃÃo de modelos de escolha discreta à um mÃtodo eficaz que retrata o comportamento dos consumidores em diversos mercados. Sua aplicaÃÃo tem sido amplamente difundida na literatura para retratar a realidade de mercados de produtos e serviÃos no setor de transportes. Quando sÃo necessÃrios estudos de previsÃo de demanda, o modo mais adequado consiste na utilizaÃÃo conjunta de dados de preferÃncia declarada (PD) e preferÃncia revelada (PR). A combinaÃÃo destes dados fornece modelos estatisticamente mais consistentes do que aqueles estimados com dados puros de PD ou de PR. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho aplica uma metodologia baseada em modelos de escolha discreta com insumo de dados de PD e PR, chamada de GNVPREV, para analisar as preferÃncias dos usuÃrios de combustÃveis, enfocando o gÃs natural veicular - GNV, dentro de um contexto competitivo de um mercado de energÃticos veiculares. Esta anÃlise foi restrita aos usuÃrios de veÃculos leves - automÃveis, camionetas e caminhonetes - que utilizam a gasolina, o Ãlcool ou o prÃprio GNV. A metodologia GNVPREV foi aplicada para uma Ãrea de estudo constituÃda por uma parte do distrito sede do municÃpio de Caucaia, situado na RegiÃo Metropolitana de Fortaleza, Estado do CearÃ. O levantamento de dados a partir de questionÃrios de preferÃncia declarada e revelada, elaborados previamente, forneceu insumos para estimativas de funÃÃes de utilidade e obtenÃÃo de parÃmetros de elasticidade de demanda, trade-off entre alternativas e cenÃrios de previsÃo de demanda. Os resultados obtidos foram satisfatÃrios, dentro das limitaÃÃes dos dados primÃrios e secundÃrios, e confirmaram um melhor desempenho do modelo quando estimado com dados conjuntos de PD e PR.

Despite its potential multiple contributions to sustainable policy objectives, urban transit is generally not widely used by the public in terms of its market share compared to that of automobiles, particularly in affluent societies with low-density urban forms like Australia. Transit service providers need to attract more people to transit by improving transit quality of service. The key to cost-effective transit service improvements lies in accurate evaluation of policy proposals by taking into account their impacts on transit users. If transit providers knew what is more or less important to their customers, they could focus their efforts on optimising customer-oriented service. Policy interventions could also be specified to influence transit users’ travel decisions, with targets of customer satisfaction and broader community welfare. This significance motivates the research into the relationship between urban transit quality of service and its user perception as well as behaviour. This research focused on two dimensions of transit user’s travel behaviour: route choice and access arrival time choice. The study area chosen was a busy urban transit corridor linking Brisbane central business district (CBD) and the St. Lucia campus of The University of Queensland (UQ). This multi-system corridor provided a ‘natural experiment’ for transit users between the CBD and UQ, as they can choose between busway 109 (with grade-separate exclusive right-of-way), ordinary on-street bus 412, and linear fast ferry CityCat on the Brisbane River. The population of interest was set as the attendees to UQ, who travelled from the CBD or from a suburb via the CBD. Two waves of internet-based self-completion questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect data on sampled passengers’ perception of transit service quality and behaviour of using public transit in the study area. The first wave survey is to collect behaviour and attitude data on respondents’ daily transit usage and their direct rating of importance on factors of route-level transit quality of service. A series of statistical analyses is conducted to examine the relationships between transit users’ travel and personal characteristics and their transit usage characteristics. A factor-cluster segmentation procedure is applied to respodents’ importance ratings on service quality variables regarding transit route preference to explore users’ various perspectives to transit quality of service. Based on the perceptions of service quality collected from the second wave survey, a series of quality criteria of the transit routes under study was quantitatively measured, particularly, the travel time reliability in terms of schedule adherence. It was proved that mixed traffic conditions and peak-period effects can affect transit service reliability. Multinomial logit models of transit user’s route choice were estimated using route-level service quality perceptions collected in the second wave survey. Relative importance of service quality factors were derived from choice model’s significant parameter estimates, such as access and egress times, seat availability, and busway system. Interpretations of the parameter estimates were conducted, particularly the equivalent in-vehicle time of access and egress times, and busway in-vehicle time. Market segmentation by trip origin was applied to investigate the difference in magnitude between the parameter estimates of access and egress times. The significant costs of transfer in transit trips were highlighted. These importance ratios were applied back to quality perceptions collected as RP data to compare the satisfaction levels between the service attributes and to generate an action relevance matrix to prioritise attributes for quality improvement. An empirical study on the relationship between average passenger waiting time and transit service characteristics was performed using the service quality perceived. Passenger arrivals for services with long headways (over 15 minutes) were found to be obviously coordinated with scheduled departure times of transit vehicles in order to reduce waiting time. This drove further investigations and modelling innovations in passenger’ access arrival time choice and its relationships with transit service characteristics and average passenger waiting time. Specifically, original contributions were made in formulation of expected waiting time, analysis of the risk-aversion attitude to missing desired service run in the passengers’ access time arrivals’ choice, and extensions of the utility function specification for modelling passenger access arrival distribution, by using complicated expected utility forms and non-linear probability weighting to explicitly accommodate the risk of missing an intended service and passenger’s risk-aversion attitude. Discussions on this research’s contributions to knowledge, its limitations, and recommendations for future research are provided at the concluding section of this thesis.

Les enquêtes préférences déclarées (EPD) reposent sur des mises en situation hypothétiques. Face à une situation de choix construite de toute pièce par l’analyste, chaque répondant doit déclarer le choix qu’il ferait s’il y était confronté en réalité. Chaque situation se présente comme la combinaison de plusieurs paramètres. Face à chacune des diverses situations qui lui sont présentées successivement, l’enquêté va devoir faire le choix de celles lui convenant le mieux. Au fil du questionnaire, ses réponses révèleront l’importance qu’il donne à chaque paramètre et contribueront à une meilleure appréhension de ses préférences et de ses choix. Ce travail s’articule autour de trois études de cas mises en œuvre dans le cadre d’études menées par des opérateurs de transport (SNCF – thème : réforme de tarification sociale), des gestionnaires d’infrastructure (RFF – thème : effets du cadencement sur l’attractivité du train) ou des organismes de recherche (LET et PREDIT – thème : impact de politiques de rationnement du carburant sur la mobilité automobile). L’objet de ces études nécessitait la mise en œuvre d’enquêtes préférences déclarées. La conception, la mise en œuvre et l’analyse des EPD ont été réalisées dans le cadre de cette thèse avec un soucis permanent de contrôle de chacun des paramètres en vue de garantir la qualité des résultats obtenus.Selon les objectifs de l’étude, des traitements économétriques divers ont été utilisés pour analyser les données récoltées.Finalement, chacune de ces mises en place a contribué à renforcer notre conviction que les EPD constituent un outil complet. Ce travail contribue finalement, à son échelle, à crédibiliser un peu plus les méthodes de préférences déclarées et invite à repositionner cet outil d’analyse comme pivot de toute réflexion complexe dont le protocole est à réinventer lors de chaque construction, plutôt que tel qu’un procédé connu, livré clé en main, dont l’application suit une logique mécanique<br>Stated preference surveys are based on choice sets composed by the analyst and proposed to some respondents. Each situation of the choice set is the combination of pre-determined attributes. While declaring the choice they would make if they were confronted to the same situation in reality, respondents reveal their preferences and their perceptions of the attributes.This Phd work presents the results of three stated preference surveys applied in the camp of public transportation. All surveys form a part of more general research programs handled for the sake: of the French railway operator, known as the SNCF (2006/2007) ; of the French railway network administrator, called RFF (2008) ; and of the French research, experimentation and innovation program in land transport, named PREDIT (2010). The use of stated preference methodology was required in order to deal efficiently with the issues of each of those research programs (respectively treating of social pricing ; train supply policy ; fuel rationing policies). The conception, the implementation and the analysis of the surveys have all been carried out during this Phd work in order to warranty control of each parameter and thus high quality results.In accordance with program research objectives, different econometrics treatments have been implemented.This Phd work shows how stated preference surveys may deal with different complex issues and therefore promote the use of this method. Each of these studies have finally strengthened the conviction that stated preferences constitute an efficient and complete tool

The main topic of this doctoral thesis is the co-benefit concept, here applied as an assessment paradigm to innovative urban projects. In this research, a co-benefit is defined as any positive impact or effect, regardless of the intentionality, exceeding the primary project goal. More specifically, because the projects here analyzed are those aiming at (re)developing smart and sustainable energy districts, CO2 emission reduction and energy savings are considered the twin primary goals. To investigate the applicability of the assessment paradigm, the work focuses both on methodological and operative issues, each developed in a single research. The general topic and the four papers are summarized in chapter 1 “Introduction and research papers presentation”, also including a brief overview of complementary research activities, and then further developed in as many chapters. The core of the work starts with two general investigations concerning (i) the co-benefits identification and classification under the smart-city perspective, and (ii) the application to them of the most suitable monetization techniques. Then, it concludes with two instances of investigative fieldwork into co-benefits, about (iii) the marginal implicit value of energy performance in residential properties, and (iv) the priorities declared by houseowners as they consider a deep-energy retrofit. To identify and classify the co-benefits, with respect to the various project activities, it is necessary to establish a common lexicon among the various expressions and definitions employed by projects. This phase is also needed to define the boundaries of the investigation, as well as the reference scale, and to avoid double counting. In chapter 2 “Overview and taxonomy of co-benefits based on European experiences”, I propose a classification rooted in practical experiences reported by projects dealing with the implementation of green neighborhoods and urban renewable-energy systems. Due to the vastness and diversity of urban projects labeled as smart, sustainable, or both, it was also necessary to identify a subset of them having similar characteristics, here named Smart and Sustainable Energy-District Projects (SSEDPs). Thus, the focus was on 36 finished or still-running SSEDPs funded by the European Union (EU) within two relevant initiatives: “Concerto” and “Smart Cities and Communities”. The anticipated or already experienced co-benefits were extracted by accessing official sources (e.g., websites, reports) and reviewing them with respect to the specialized literature, obtaining 156 different expressions referring to positive impacts. After a thorough and iterative comparison by a group of experts, a short list of 19 key urban co-benefits is extracted. Finally, to show how relevant is the contribution of these projects to improving the quality of life of citizens and urban competitiveness, a smart-city-based taxonomy is elaborated, by sorting the co-benefits into seven groupings: smart natural environment, smart services, smart community, smart governance, smart economy, smart built environment, and smart mobility. Chapter 3 “Economic assessment methodologies” faces the issue of providing an overview of suitable methodologies for economic assessment, and of creating a framework for evaluating the key urban co-benefits recognized by EU-funded SSEDPs. The aim is to explore the feasibility of a co-benefit approach to a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) being applied to the decision-making framework by quantifying, in monetary terms, all the positive effects (benefits or inflow), as well as the negatives (costs or outflow). Due to the specificity of some co-benefits, besides direct-market value, non-market techniques have been identified as applicable to price them. Such techniques investigate consumers’ preferences starting from individual purchasing habits (revealed preferences) or asking them directly about their preferences (stated preferences). It showed that, for a minority of co-benefits, even the monetization of the human capital should be assessed to complete the whole picture. As a result, looking at the reference literature and involving a multidisciplinary team of experts, an “assessment menu” is developed, suggesting indicators and techniques. The menu also includes some estimated values reported by other studies, examples of practical application in similar contexts, and techniques or approaches suggested by analogy to the reference literature. The chapter 4 “A hedonic price model of energy performance of buildings” is tested in the city of Bolzano. This estimation technique identifies price factors (transactions or asking prices) according to the premise that an asset’s price is determined both by the intrinsic characteristics of the good being sold and extrinsic ones. The research constitutes the first attempt at breaking down the local residential property price and including, among the relevant factors, internal characteristics such as the energy performance certificate (EPC) class. By accessing a specialized real-estate website, 1,130 selling advertisements are collected, then geolocated, and analyzed by using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. The aim was to test the presence of spatial autocorrelation, and to eventually correct the estimation based on the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method. In fact, a neglected consideration of spatial relationships, in the presence of spatial dependence would lead to biased results. After a careful refinement of the sample, the evaluation of the marginal contribution of EPC class in the determination of the asking price has been estimated in a 6.3% price premium, moving from lowest class (G) to middle classes (C or D), and a 9.5% when reaching the highest classes (A or B), ceteris paribus. Finally, the OLS-regression result is confirmed, after checking for spatial autocorrelation and testing the Spatial Lag model (the GIS software ArcMap and GeoDa were used). In chapter 5 “A multiple benefits approach to understanding citizen priorities for deep-energy retrofitting”, the focus shifts from a specific co-benefit to a specific target group. Here, priorities declared by houseowners approaching a deep-energy retrofit are shown and weighted, adopting a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. According to the test-phase results, a decision tree with five criteria and 15 subcriteria has been designed: four in “thermal and hygrometric comfort”; three in “design and architectural quality”, “acoustic comfort”, and “economic benefits”; and two in “sustainability”. Then, a pool of ten experts in the field of energy refurbishment and building works (selected among those working in South Tyrol) has been interviewed by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique, which enables evaluation of qualitative criteria through pairwise comparison. The “Super Decisions” software was used, which is specifically designed to support the data collection and results’ validation of AHP. Not surprisingly, the “economic-benefits” side plays a relevant role (38% of the global importance). However, a cross-sector analysis of expected benefits dealing with better health and well-being of occupants reveals that they cover 41% of the overall motivation. These points should be carefully considered not only in the design phase of a private project but also in the communication strategies and within each participatory phase of any project where the decision-maker (private or public) differs from the occupant. The thesis culminates with chapter 6 “Conclusions”, where achieved results of all the four previously described investigations are briefly summarized and further developments are proposed as an impetus for deeper investigations or cross-cutting research.<br>Il tema principale di questa tesi di dottorato è costituito dal concetto di “co-beneficio” (in inglese co-benefit), qui inteso come un paradigma di valutazione di progetti urbani innovativi. In questa ricerca, il co-beneficio è definito come un qualsiasi impatto o effetto po-sitivo che ecceda l'obiettivo primario del progetto, indipendentemente dalla intenzionalità o meno con cui esso si manifesta. Nello specifico, poiché i progetti qui analizzati sono volti alla creazione di distretti energetici intelligenti e sostenibili (in inglese Smart and Sustainable Energy District Projects – SSEDPs) o alla rigenerazione di quartieri esistenti, il loro obiettivo primario può essere considerato duplice: riduzione delle emissioni di CO2 e raggiungimento di risparmi energetici. Per studiare l'applicabilità del paradigma di valutazione, il lavoro di tesi si concentra sia su questioni metodologiche che operative, ognuna sviluppata in una singola ricerca. Il tema generale e le quattro ricerche specifiche sono riassunti nel capitolo 1 "Introduzione e presentazione dei research papers", che offre inoltre un breve excursus su attività di ricerca complementari. Poi, le quattro ricerche sono sviluppate in altrettanti capitoli della tesi. Il nucleo del lavoro si apre con due indagini generali relative a (i) identificazione co-benefici e loro classificazione in una logica di smart city, e (ii) definizione delle più opportune tecniche di monetizzazione a loro applicabili. Da qui il lavoro procede con due attività di investigazione e analisi sul campo dei co-benefici, ovvero (iii) determinazione del valore marginale implicito della prestazione energetica nel prezzo di offerta degli immobili residenziali, e (iv) pesatura dei benefici attesi dichiarati dai proprietari immobiliari nel commissionare una ristrutturazione energetica radicale (in inglese deep energy retrofit) della propria residenza. Per identificare e classificare i co-benefici, in relazione alle differenti attività di progetto, è stato necessario stabilire un lessico comune tra le varie espressioni e definizioni rintracciabili in diversi contesti. Si è reso inoltre necessario, nella fase preliminare, definire i confini della ricerca, così come la dimensione di riferimento, per evitare un doppio conteggio dello stesso co-beneficio. Nel capitolo 2 "Descrizione e tassonomia dei co-benefici sulla base delle esperienze europee", si propone una classificazione fondata sulle evidenze riportate dai progetti riguardanti la realizzazione di quartieri sostenibili e di sistemi energetici urbani con integrazione di fonti energetiche rinnovabili. Data la vastità e diversità dei progetti urbani definiti smart, sostenibili, o da entrambe i termini, è stato necessario individuare un sottoinsieme di progetti con caratteristiche simili ed equiparabili. Ad essi è stata attribuita la dicitura di Smart and Sustainable Energy District Projects – SSEDPs. In tal modo, l'attenzione della ricerca si è concentrata su 36 SSEDPs, alcuni già conclusi, altri ancora in esecuzione, finanziati dall’Unione Europea (UE) all’interno di due importanti iniziative: "Concerto" e "Smart Cities and Communities". I co-benefici, attesi o già riscontrati, sono stati ottenuti accedendo alle fonti ufficiali (quali siti web e report) e incrociandoli rispetto alla letteratura specializzata di settore. Si sono così ottenute 156 diverse espressioni riferibili agli impatti positivi. Dopo un confronto approfondito e iterativo condotto da un gruppo di esperti, si è giunti alla formulazione di una lista sintetica di 19 co-benefici urbani di preminente interesse. Infine, per mostrare quanto rilevante sia il contributo di questi progetti al miglioramento della qualità della vita dei cittadini e della competitività urbana, è stata elaborata una tassonomia dei co-benefici basata sulle sette dimensioni della smart city (ambiente naturale, servizi, comunità, governance, economia, ambiente costruito, mobilità). Il capitolo 3 "Metodologie di valutazione economica" affronta il problema di fornire una panoramica di quali possano essere le metodologie adeguate per la valutazione economica dei co-benefici, e di creare un quadro di riferimento applicabile ai principali co-be-nefici urbani evidenziati dagli SSEDPs finanziati dalla UE. L'obiettivo è quello di esplorare la fattibilità di un approccio allargato, incorporante i co-benefici, nella formulazione di ana-lisi costi-benefici (in inglese Cost-Benefit Analysis - CBA), e pertanto di offrire al quadro decisionale una quantificazione monetaria di tutti gli effetti positivi e negativi. A causa della specificità di alcuni co-benefici, oltre alla identificazione diretta del valore di mercato, sono state ipotizzate le tecniche non di mercato strategicamente applicabili per la definizione del loro valore. Tali tecniche permettono di indagare le preferenze dei consumatori a partire da singole abitudini di acquisto (preferenze rivelate) o chiedendo loro diretta-mente di esprimersi sulle preferenze (preferenze dichiarate). Per una minoranza di co-benefici, anche una monetizzazione del valore del capitale umano dovrebbe essere inclusa per completare l'intero quadro. Come risultato, ancora una volta riferendosi alla letteratura scientifica specializzata e coinvolgendo un team multidisciplinare di esperti nel dibattito, è stato possibile sviluppare un "menù di valutazione", suggerendo indicatori e tecniche applicabili ai progetti esaminati. Il menù comprende anche alcuni valori stimati riportati da altri studi, esempi di applicazione pratica in contesti simili, e le tecniche o approcci suggeriti per analogia alla letteratura di riferimento. Nel capitolo 4 "Un modello di prezzo edonico per l’analisi della prestazione energetica negli edifici" è testato nella città di Bolzano. Questa tecnica di stima individua i fattori determinanti il prezzo dell’immobile (applicabile alle transazioni quanto ai prezzi di offerta, come in questo caso) in base alla premessa che esso sia determinato da caratteristiche intrinseche del bene stesso posto in vendita e da caratteristiche estrinseche. La ricerca costituisce un primo tentativo di scomporre il prezzo di offerta degli immobili residenziali di Bolzano comprendendo tra i fattori rilevanti intrinseci anche la classe riportata dall'attestato di certificazione energetica (in inglese Energy performance certificate - EPC). Ac-cedendo a un portale internet immobiliare specializzato, sono stati raccolti 1.130 annunci, successivamente geolocalizzati e analizzati utilizzando sistemi informativi geografici (in inglese Geographic Information System - GIS). Lo scopo di questo passaggio, aggiuntivo rispetto ad un classico modello edonico, è stato quello di verificare la presenza di auto-correlazione spaziale, ed eventualmente correggere la stima ottenuta sulla base del metodo dei minimi quadrati (in inglese Ordinary Least Squares - OLS). Questo poiché, come evidenziato dalla letteratura, una non considerazione delle relazioni spaziali, in presenza di forte dipendenza spaziale, porterebbe a risultati distorti della stima. Dopo un attento affinamento del campione, il contributo marginale della classe energetica nella determinazione del prezzo di offerta, prendendo come base di riferimento gli immobili in classe peggiore (G), è stato stimato in un aumento del 6,3% per le classi medie (C o D), e del 9,5% per le classi più elevate (A o B), ceteris paribus. Infine, il risultato del modello di regressione dei minimi quadrati è stato confermato, dopo averlo verificato nella componente di autocorrelazione spaziale testando il modello spatial-Lag (per queste fasi sono stati utilizzati i software GIS ArcMap e GeoDa). Nel capitolo 5 "Un approccio basato sui benefici multipli per la comprensione delle priorità dei cittadini nelle ristrutturazioni energetiche", l'attenzione è stata spostata dall’analisi di un co-beneficio specifico a quella di un target specifico. Qui, le priorità dichiarate dai proprietari di immobili residenziali che si approcciano ad un deep energy retrofit della propria abitazione sono espresse e ponderate adottando un metodo di analisi di decisone multi-criteri (in inglese Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis - MCDA). Sulla base dei risultati di una prima fase test, è stato disegnato un albero del processo decisionale articolato in cinque criteri e 15 sotto-criteri, così suddivisi: quattro in "comfort termico e igrometrico"; tre in "design e qualità architettonica", "comfort acustico", "benefici economici"; due in "sostenibilità". Successivamente, un gruppo di dieci esperti nel campo della ristrutturazione energetica e nel settore dell’edilizia residenziale (selezionati tra quelli attivi in Alto Adige), è stato intervistato applicando la tecnica dell’Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), che con-sente la valutazione di criteri qualitativi attraverso il confronto a coppie. In questo studio è stato utilizzato il software "Superdecision", che è specificamente progettato per suppor-tare la raccolta dei dati e la validazione dei risultati AHP. Dai risultati ottenuti emerge, come era intuibile dato il contesto normativo attuale, che la dimensione dei "benefici economici" gioca un ruolo considerevole nella scelta (38% della rilevanza globale). Tuttavia, un'analisi trasversale dei benefici attesi che coinvolgono aspetti della salute e del benessere degli occupanti rivela che questi coprono il 41% della motivazione complessiva. Lo studio evidenzia quindi come tali punti debbano essere attentamente considerati non solo in fase di redazione dei singoli progetti, ma anche nelle strategie di comunicazione e all'interno di ciascuna fase di partecipazione nel caso di progetti nei quali il decisore (pubblico o privato) non corrisponda all'occupante. La tesi termina con il capitolo 6 "Conclusioni", dove sonno riepilogati i percorsi delle quattro indagini precedentemente descritte e sono brevemente riassunti i risultati. Sono inoltre evidenziati possibili sviluppi futuri, proposti come un impulso per indagini più approfondite o per ricerche trasversali.

碩士<br>國立中興大學<br>應用經濟學研究所<br>92<br>Environmental and recreational valuation methods can be classified into two categories, revealed preference method and stated preference method. Recently, studies that use the combinations of both methods are becoming popular. Theoretically, the utility maximizing decisions of economic agents, whether real or hypothetical, should reflect the same underlying structure of preferences. However, literature shows that the underlying preferences are in fact similar, not completely the same. So, one purpose of this study is to explore correlation of the stated and revealed preferences. Following McConnell et al.(1999), we show three different interpretations for the structures of preferences. In addition, this study incorporates double-bounded choice stated preference data into the bivariate truncated normal probabilities. Double-bounded data are used because it is more efficient. Besides, our wetland data is on-site sampling, and we want to explore the correlation of the stated and revealed preferences, so we use the bivariate truncated distribution. The result demonstrates that if we neglect the correlation of the random elements of the stated and revealed preferences, we will overestimate recreation value. The AIC values of the estimations imply that correlated preference structure is better than independent preference structure.

Rozprawa składa się z ośmiu artykułów naukowych poświęconych tematyce ujawniania prawdziwych preferencji w ankietach wyceny stosujących metody preferencji deklarowanych. Zaprezentowane artykuły wykorzystują szerokie spektrum podejść badawczych w celu analizy zagadnienia. Obejmują one dogłębny przegląd literatury empirycznie weryfikującej poprawność oszacowań pochodzących z metod preferencji deklarowanych, model teoretyczny obrazujący znaczenie warunku konsekwencyjności, a także badania laboratoryjne i terenowe, które skupiają się na poszczególnych aspektach poprawności motywacyjnej ankiet. Pierwsze cztery artykuły koncentrują się wokół kwestii konsekwencyjności. Kolejne cztery dotyczą formatu pytań wykorzystywanych do zbierania informacji o preferencjach respondentów. Główne pytanie badawcze, leżące u podstaw każdego z artykułów, to, czy, a jeśli tak, to w jaki sposób, metody oparte na preferencjach deklarowanych mogą dawać prawidłowe oszacowania faktycznych wartości dóbr nierynkowych.

碩士<br>逢甲大學<br>運輸科技與管理學系<br>100<br>Due to economic growth and income increase in recent years, more and more people purchase private modes of transportation. Thus, private mode usage and ownership ratios have continued to increase. This has resulted in more crowded roads, increased air pollution and excessive energy consumption. To this end, the study collects the revealed preference and stated preference data to understand intercity travelers’ mode choice. The study considers a new type of public transport - demand responsive transport services into modeling access mode choice in order to understand market potential of such services. This study develops access mode choice models, including multinomial logit, nested logit, and mixed logit models. The factors influencing travelers’ access mode choice include service levels (i.e., travel time and travel cost) as well as the trip characteristics and travelers’ socio-economic status. This study found that motorcycle and automobile alternatives of RP data, and motorcycle, automobile and DRT-taxi alternatives of SP data have similarities in unobserved components of utilities. Another important finding is the existent of individual heterogeneity for travel time and travel cost variables. Finally, this study provides demand forecasts of mode shares with regard to the changes in access mode services.

This research examined if travelers are paying for travel on managed lanes (MLs) as they indicated that they would in a 2008 survey. The other objectives of this research included estimating travelers’ value of travel time savings (VTTS) and their value of travel time reliability (VOR), and examining the multiple survey designs used in a 2008 survey to identify which survey design better predicted ML traveler behavior. To achieve the objectives, an Internet-based follow-up stated preference (SP) survey of Houston’s Katy Freeway travelers was conducted in 2010. Three survey design methodologies—Db-efficient, random level generation, and adaptive random—were tested in this survey. A total of 3,325 responses were gathered from the survey, and of those, 869 responses were from those who likely also responded to the previous 2008 survey. Mixed logit models were developed for those 869 previous survey respondents to estimate and compare the VTTS to the 2008 survey estimates. It was found that the 2008 survey estimates of the VTTS were very close to the 2010 survey estimates. In addition, separate mixed logit models were developed from the responses obtained from the three different design strategies in the 2010 survey. The implied mean VTTS varied across the design-specific models. Only the Db-efficient design was able to estimate a VOR. Based on this and several other metrics, the Db-efficient design outperformed the other designs. A mixed logit model including all the responses from all three designs was also developed; the implied mean VTTS was estimated as 65 percent ($22/hr) of the mean hourly wage rate, and the implied mean VOR was estimated as 108 percent ($37/hr) of the mean hourly wage rate. Data on actual usage of the MLs were also collected. Based on actual usage, the average VTTS was calculated as $51/hr. However, the $51/hr travelers are paying likely also includes the value travelers place on travel time reliability of the MLs. The total (VTTS+VOR) amount estimated from the all-inclusive model from the survey was $59/hr, which is close to the value estimated from the actual usage. The Db-efficient design estimated this total as $50/hr. This research also shows that travelers have a difficulty in estimating the time they save while using a ML. They greatly overestimate the amount of time saved. It may well be that even though travelers are saving a small amount of time they value that time savings (and avoiding congestion) much higher – possibly similar to their amount of perceived travel time savings. The initial findings from this study, reported here, are consistent with the hypothesis that travelers are paying for their travel on MLs, much as they said that they would in our previous survey. This supports the use of data on intended behavior in policy analysis.

碩士<br>國立臺北大學<br>自然資源與環境管理研究所<br>104<br>This study combines the stated and revealed preference data to evaluate recreational benefit for mangrove wetlands in the Tamsui river watershed. There are two hypothetical scenarios in contingent behavior (CB), including the travel cost increase 10% and the wetland quality improves. Trip model is estimated with the travel cost data and CB data, and then the willingness to pay (WTP) model is also constructed with the contingent valuation method (CVM) data. Finally, simultaneous equations are estimated to slove preference parameters for trip and WTP models. In addition, the study uses the choice experiment method to calculate the utilities for various combinations of wetland biodiversity attributes for each individual. On the contrast of the status quo wetland quality, the most and least favored combinations are then treated as the improved and deteriorated wetland quality, respectvely. Empirical results show that the data-combining model roposed in this study relaxes the restriction of weak complementarity (WC) in TCM and CB, and can thus estimate the use value (UV) and non-use value (NUV). In addition, it also relaxes the restriction of Willig condition imposed in TCM and CB, and can thus estimate the exact welfare measurement-the Hicksian compensating variation rather than the consumer surplus. It is shown that in total respondents are willing to pay NT$ 468 dollars annually to maintain the current quality of mangrove wetlands in the Tamsui river watershed; NT$ 227 dollars for UV and NT$ 241 dollars for NUV. Wetlands contain lots of ecosystem functions, such as provisioning, regulating, supporting and culture. The empirical results show it is very important to preserving mangrove wetlands in the Tamsui river watershed becasuse wetlands bring people UV and NUV.

碩士<br>國立成功大學<br>都市計劃學系<br>104<br>The concept of shared space has been gradually becoming a widely accepted urban design principle in Europe. It is an approach intended to reconcile the traffic in public realms and to improve the comfort of pedestrians by reducing the dominance of motor vehicles. With this concept, it would be not uncommon to see different types of road users mixed in traffic, including vulnerable users such as pedestrians and two wheelers. Understanding the perception of users in shared spaces is the key to their successful design. Although this is a new idea promoted in Western societies, it is easy to see such space sharing phenomena in South East Asian cities. The aim of this study is to investigate the perception of users in shared spaces containing pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists and motorists. Data were collected by a questionnaire using a photo survey technique in Taiwan, where people have been used to space sharing environments for decades. The factors affecting the road use experience, such as land use, density, road form, pedestrian facilities, pavement, vegetation, lighting level and traffic management tools, were embedded in the photo survey for the purpose of testing the most preferred shared space road user scenarios. Also, personal characteristics and mode choice information were asked in the questionnaire. The multinomial logit (MNL) modelling technique and the nested logit (NL) modelling technique were used to describe the respondents’ preferences to the scenarios and to quantify the effects of the design-specific factors related to shared spaces. The results showed that regardless of the kind of road user perceptions, road users are sensitive to vehicular traffic density factors. For pedestrians, high pedestrian density, presence of vendors, arcades, narrow road, brick paving, parking in middle of the road, traffic management tools and vegetation along the road were found to make pedestrians comfortable with walking through such areas. For drivers, high pedestrian density and vehicular traffic density, presence of vendors, narrow road width, brick paving, parking in middle of the road, vegetation along the road and presence of traffic management tools were found to enhance driver alertness. However, a lack of demarcations and traffic management tools were found to enhance pedestrian comfort and driver alertness. The results also revealed an interesting finding suggesting that the presence of safe zones (i.e. pedestrian facilities such as arcades) will reduce driver alertness and that high vehicular traffic density will increase driver alertness. These insights are useful with regard to shared space design principles as well as to the implementation of shared space schemes in Western societies.

Amongst transportation professionals there is a motivation to increase the use of active transportation to achieve contemporary transportation engineering goals. This research describes a year-long GPS cycling study conducted in partnership by the University of Waterloo and the Region of Waterloo Ontario. Data were collected from 415 self-selected cyclists, using two distinct data collection mechanisms. Data collected from GPS units revealed trip origins, destinations, and routes; the data also contain time stamps from which travel speeds can be computed. An online survey was administered to gather cyclists’ socio-economic information and household composition. The survey also collected responses to questions regarding preferences for cycling infrastructure and overall satisfaction. The trip data allow for several important conclusions. The average trip length observed in the study was 6.96 kilometers; utilitarian trips (i.e. non-recreational) constitute 92% of the observed trips. This suggests that cyclists are able to complete daily activities – commuting, shopping, etc. – with less overall travel than the general population. The trip data also suggests relationships between the propensity to cycle and land use patterns. Strong positive correlations are demonstrated between higher land use density and the number of cycling trips; moreover, cycling trips tend to be more direct in areas with traditional neighbourhood design. The time at which the trips were taken – predominantly the am or pm peaks – suggest that the cyclists’ mode choice results in lowering peak demand and, therefore, reducing regional congestion. Fewer and typically shorter cycling trips were observed during winter months, presumably as a result of less favorable climate. Participants in the study are typically higher-than-average earners and mirror the overall regional age distribution, although seniors and children were underrepresented. The cyclists in the study are predominantly male which may reflect an overall higher propensity to cycle amongst men compared to women. Cyclists’ households are more likely than the general population to own fewer cars than licensed drivers which may be interpreted as a cost saving opportunities for these households. Finally, the survey data suggests that the single largest impediment to increased cycling is a perception of poor safety for cyclists, particularly in terms of interactions with automobiles.

This research presents the first North American route-choice model for cyclists developed from a large sample of GPS data. These findings should encourage all interested municipalities to implement cycling as part of their transportation planning by determining key designing and planning factors to encourage cycling. The analysis is based on processing revealed preference data obtained from 415 self-selected cyclists in Waterloo, Ontario, which corresponded to 2000 routes. Cyclists' route decisions were modeled using multinomial logit framework of discrete choice theory. The main finding involved in capturing two different behaviour groups, namely experienced and inexperienced cyclists. This was subsequently reflected in the two developed models. The key factors impacting route-choice were found to be trip length, speed, volume, bicycle lane presence and percent of uphill gradient that cyclists face. The predictive power of the best model was 65%. The outlier analysis found that the relative significance of uphill gradient coefficient in one circumstances and perhaps the exclusion of unobserved variables, in other circumstances could be the cause why probability of actual choice was not predicted by both models all the time. In addition, this research involved in the development of a transferability study involving route-choice modeling for cyclists. The analysis is based on the revealed preference data obtained from 255 self-selected cyclists in Peel Region, Ontario, which corresponded to 425 unique routes. The choice set contained actual routes and a combination of alternatives obtained by labeling and impedance rules. The transferability of Waterloo's model to Peel Region was 37%. This means that cyclists behaviour in the Peel Region can be predicted correctly by travel length, bicycle lane presence and percent of uphill gradient for every third cyclist.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1988.<br>Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 346-362).

High-speed passenger rail is seen by many in the U.S. transportation policy and planning communities as an ideal solution for fast, safe, and resource-efficient mobility in high-demand intercity corridors. To expand the body of knowledge for high-speed intercity passenger rail in the U.S., the overall goal of this dissertation was to better understand the demand for high-speed intercity passenger rail services in small- or medium-sized intermediate communities and improve planners' ability to estimate such demand through traveler surveys; specifically, the use of different experimental designs for stated preference questions and the use of images to describe hypothetical travel alternatives in traveler surveys. In pursuit of this goal, an Internet-based survey was distributed to residents of Waco and Temple, two communities located along the federally-designated South Central High-Speed Rail Corridor in Central Texas. A total of 1,160 surveys were obtained from residents of the two communities. Mixed logit travel mode choice models developed from the survey data revealed valuable findings that can inform demand estimates and the design of traveler surveys for high-speed intercity passenger rail planning activities. Based on the analysis presented in this dissertation, ridership estimates for new high-speed intercity passenger rail lines that are planned to serve intermediate communities should not assume that residents of these communities have similar characteristics and values. The d-efficient stated preference experimental design was found to provide a mode choice model with a better fit and greater significance on key policy variables than the adaptive design and therefore is recommended for use in future surveys. Finally, it is recommended that surveys should consider the use of images of proposed train services to aid respondent decision-making for stated preference questions, but only if the images used in the survey depict equipment that could be realistically deployed in the corridor.