Academic literature on the topic 'Rice trade - Government policy'

Low productivity, modest production and large-scale importation characterize Nigeria’s rice subsector despite government intervention through trade policy measures since independence. Studies on Nigeria’s trade policy and rice productivity are scanty in the literature. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of the country’s rice trade policy on rice productivity from 1961-2017, employing the Vector Error Correction Modeling approach. The results show that protectionist trade policy reduced rice productivity in the short run but was not significant in the long run. Producer price and domestic consumption improved rice productivity in the short run although, the latter reduced productivity in the long run. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and exchange rate reduced productivity in the short run but exchange rate increased productivity in the long run. Thus, government should focus on exchange rate, liberalized trade policy and appropriate fertilizer policy to improve Nigeria’s rice productivity.

This peace of research has been conducted, as part of PhD research of the first author, with the objectives to (i) identify various protection policies and interventions exercised in Basmati rice economy in Pakistan (ii) estimate welfare effects associated with existing protection policies and (iii) to estimate implications of WTO’s trade liberalisation in domestic economy and foreign markets. The quantitative analysis of data reveals that Basmati rice crop hanged about ‘price tax-cum-export tax’ regime during the study period. Welfare analysis of such policy interventions estimated higher losses to producers (Pak Rs 657.95 million per year) than gains to consumers (Rs 448.76 million per year) during pre-WTO period. The same trend continued during post-WTO period but producers’ losses were comparatively smaller i.e., 649.48 million per year. In case of free trade, simulation results demonstrate greater gains to producers than losses to consumers. If world market was liberalised, supplementary gains in the range of Rs 276.65 million to Rs 451.60 million per year during earlier and Rs 333.45 million to Rs 637.40 million per year during the later period would have occurred at domestic level. In light of analytical results, the following recommendations are made. (i) Government needs to curtail interventions in Basmati rice economy. (ii) Besides, improving the pace of trade liberalisation at domestic level, Pakistan should pursue with other members in WTO’s negotiations for early implementation of WTO’s trade liberalisation on international level. (iii) Government of Pakistan should gear up its efforts as facilitator of trade in accordance with WTO agreements and increase investment in areas of research, development, and out-reach. JEL classification: Q17, Q18, Q28 Keywords: Basmati Rice, Government Intervention, Welfare Effect, Trade Liberalisation, WTO.

The research on "Analysis of Comparative and Competitive Advantages of Solok Rice (Case Study in Solok City)" is aimed to analyze the competitiveness of Solok rice based on comparative and competitive advantages and looking at the impact of rice policy in Solok City. The method used in this research is the case study method. The analytical tool used is the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). The results showed that rice farming in Solok City had comparative and competitive advantages, because a private profit of Rp. 6,454,307.44 and social benefits of Rp. 2,698,042,60. The results of the analysis obtained the value of PCR <1 (0.45) and DRCR <1 (0.66), which means that financially Solok rice farming is efficient and has the potential to trade in the free market. Solok rice farming is also effective to carry out even though there are output and input policies, because the EPC value> 1. The implementation of the protection policy applied by the government still provides incentives to farmers producing rice Solok because the value of NT> 0 and PC> 1. Farmer income will increase 31% if there is no market distortion carried out by the government because the SRP value obtained is 0.31.

We focus on rice policy reform required for Taiwan's admission to the WTO, and examine the effects, theoretically and empirically, of the re-instrumentation of domestic policy needed to achieve environmental objectives when both positive and negative environmental externalities exist. Policies that treat non-commodity attributes in agriculture as secondary to existing aims, such as income support, are unlikely to result in the desired supplies of environmental goods. Those supplies can be achieved at lower government and social costs using policy instruments to achieve environmental goals directly. Results are relatively insensitive to the social values assigned to environmental goods.

Di Indonesia, harga beras membuat 28 juta masyarakat pra-sejahtera menghabiskan nyaris separuh penghasilannya. Menanggapi hal ini, pemerintah menerapkan Harga Eceran Tertinggi (HET) dan menugaskan Badan Urusan Logistik (Bulog) untuk menstabilkan harga beras. Sebagai salah satu perwujudan tugasnya, Bulog ditunjuk menjadi importir tunggal beras. Kajian ini menganalisis efektiitas HET, kinerja Bulog sebagai importir beras, dan korelasi antara harga beras di Indonesia dan pasar internasional. Makalah ini mengusulkan opsi kebijakan untuk menurunkan harga beras dengan menggarisbawahi potensi perdagangan internasional. Makalah ini menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) dan hasil wawancara. Hasilnya: (1) HET menekan para pedagang eceran, sementara para tengkulak, pemilik penggilingan, dan pedagang grosir yang mengambil laba terbesar dari sistem distribusi beras dalam negeri; (2) Akibat kendala birokrasi, Bulog kerap mengimpor beras ketika harga internasional sudah telanjur meningkat; (3) Harga beras di Indonesia terdeviasi dan lebih mahal dibandingkan pasar internasional. Makalah ini merekomendasikan agar pemerintah mengkaji HET, memberikan kebebasan kepada Bulog untuk menentukan waktu maupun kuantitas beras yang perlu diimpornya dengan berdasarkan pada analisis pasar, dan membentuk forum konsultasi dengan sektor swasta yang memenuhi syarat. Hal ini akan menjaga harga beras senantiasa kompetitif baik bagi konsumen maupun pedagang eceran, serta akan membawa Indonesia lebih dekat dengan rantai nilai regional. In Indonesia, rice prices cost around 28 million poor nearly half of their income. In response, the government implements price ceiling (HET) and assigns National Logistics Agency (Bulog) to stabilize rice prices. As part of its duties, Bulog was appointed as the sole rice importer. This study analyzed the effectiveness of HET, Bulog’s performance as rice importer, and the correlation between rice prices in Indonesia and in international market. This paper explores policy options to lower rice prices by highlighting the potential of international trade. This study used Error Correction Models (ECM) and semi-structured interviews. The results: (1) HET pressures retailers, while middlemen, rice millers, and wholesalers benefit the most from domestic rice distribution; (2) Due to bureaucratic constraints, Bulog frequently imported rice when international prices were already rising; (3) Rice prices in Indonesia deviate away from and higher than the international market. This paper recommends the government to review HET, to give freedom to Bulog to determine the timing and quantity of rice importation based on its market analysis, and to organize consultative forums with qualified private sector. This will keep the prices competitive for both consumers and retailers and bring Indonesia closer to the regional value chain.

Black rice is a functional food so that it is not only to meet food needs, but also to maintain the health of consumers. For farmers, producing black rice will be more profitable because the selling value is higher than other types of rice. However, not many consumers and farmers are aware of this, resulting in unstable black rice production. In this free trade era, the opportunity to export a commodity or penetrate the international market is getting bigger. Therefore, it is necessary to study the competitiveness of black rice to determine its potential.The purpose of this research was to identify competitiveness through competitive advantage and comparative advantage as well as the impact of government policies. The research design used was quantitative with survey techniques. Data were analyzed using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). The results showed that black rice was competitive both competitively and comparatively, indicated by the value of PCR < 1 = 0.568 and DCR < 1 = 0.521. Therefore, 1) black rice farming was efficient financially and economically, and 2) black rice has the potential to be exported. The impact of government policies on black rice farming has overall reduced farmers' income. In addition, government policies also inhibited black rice exports as indicated by the value of NPCO < 1 = 0.793 and prevented farmers from exporting inputs as indicated by the value of NPCI < 1 = 0.565.

Policies to maintain rice prices are a sensitive policy in Indonesia so that the government controls the rice price tightly in every level of the rice market. To make sure it runs well, the government needs to take into account the magnitude, direction, and speed of transmission of the rice price changes. When these three things can be monitored and controlled well, the success rate of controlling prices is in hand. This study investigates the direction and speed of transmission of changes in grain prices at the farm level to changes in rice prices at various levels of trade. The empirical results utilizing Granger Causality Test and VAR indicate that changes in the price of grain at the farm level significantly cause changes in rice prices at the milling and wholesale levels in a unidirectional way. Meanwhile, there is a piece of additional information where changes in the retail price of rice significantly cause changes in the price of grain at the farm level rather than vice versa. By implementing the IRFs method reveal the transmission’s duration of price change takes place in the short term and long term. Considering these findings, the policy of stabilizing rice prices at the mill and wholesale levels should be implemented immediately when the price of farmers' grain begins to change.

Food prices stabilization through the food production and trade to fulfillment consumption in terms of both availability and accessibility food is government major problem. Government’s ability to determine an appropriate pricing policy depends on market structure, behavior and effectiveness. Trade barriers and market failure reduction, improved access information would make market integration effective and efficient. This study aims to analyze the market integration and the price transmission elasticity that occurs between regions in Indonesia. Using Ravallion integration analysis and a span from 2009 to 2013 on 33 provinces retail prices data in Indonesia to capture level integration and price transmission between regions. The results showed in the rice shows that Jakarta and South Sulawesi region is becoming the leading market and Jakarta for sugar market those integrated with most areas in Indonesia. Sugar and rice have a better degree of integration than soya. Integration analysis with Ravallion models cannot explain two areas integrated or not. It is necessary to study towards further for East Java in terms of either regional autonomy policy or any market failure that occurs in order to find a policy solution to be more integrated. Key words : Food, Market integration, Ravallion model

Food prices stabilization through the food production and trade to fulfillment consumption in terms of both availability and accessibility food is government major problem. Government’s ability to determine an appropriate pricing policy depends on market structure, behavior and effectiveness. Trade barriers and market failure reduction, improved access information would make market integration effective and efficient. This study aims to analyze the market integration and the price transmission elasticity that occurs between regions in Indonesia. Using Ravallion integration analysis and a span from 2009 to 2013 on 33 provinces retail prices data in Indonesia to capture level integration and price transmission between regions. The results showed in the rice shows that Jakarta and South Sulawesi region is becoming the leading market and Jakarta for sugar market those integrated with most areas in Indonesia. Sugar and rice have a better degree of integration than soya. Integration analysis with Ravallion models cannot explain two areas integrated or not. It is necessary to study towards further for East Java in terms of either regional autonomy policy or any market failure that occurs in order to find a policy solution to be more integrated. Key words : Food, Market integration, Ravallion model

A high level of a country’s foreign trade is related to the growth of foreign earnings, to the acceleration of investments, to increase employment and contributes significantly to the growth of the country's economy. In this context, SMEs as one of the mile stones of the economy, foreign trade and economic growth are located in the leading roles. Especially SMEs sufficiently developed oppressed against strong opponents abroad, government policies or practices in trade restrictive policies are some of the reasons for this downside.
 SMEs that exports goods, or the infrastructure needed to produce goods for SMEs who import raw materials as well as the country's foreign trade policies and developments in the world economy is important. SMEs to follow the development, recognizing competitors, new markets, new products is very important in terms of growth both business and the countries. 
 In this study, SMEs engaged in foreign trade in Sivas Province performing an application on in terms of both the business and government policy at the local level status will be examined. Data will be obtained on issues such as ultimately foreign trade potential of existing SMEs while doing foreign trade problems they face, strengths and weaknesses, market policies at national and international levels, the opinions about the state's foreign trade policy. The results obtained from the data on SMEs engaged in foreign trade by making general inferences about the data obtained on a micro scale, will allow making inferences on the macro scale.

In East Asia economic regionalism and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are proliferating at tremendous pace despite being the latecomer as compared to Americas and Europe. Proliferation of FTAs in East Asia started to spread after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The East Asian economies were dissatisfied with the way the IMF handled the crisis, particularly in Thailand and Indonesia. Presently, about over 100 FTAs are at various stages of development in East Asia. China is also actively engaged in FTAs like the other East Asian neighboring countries for achieving multiple objectives. In this paper we analyzed the detailed reasons that why China is pursuing FTAs? Furthermore, it is said that FTAs may jeopardize the multilateral trading system. As FTAs undermine the WTO policy of maintaining a liberal, non discriminatory and multilateral trading system by supporting the government interventions and prudential controls. Thus we would also explore that whether FTAs are building or stumbling blocks?

The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Chinese-sponsored Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones offer African countries opportunities for new sources of investment, employment, skills transfer and technology transfer that promote industrialisation. For more than 15 years, these economic zones have provided a window into the complexities of transforming African aspirations for industrialisation into realities. Through policy frameworks and incentives, Chinese firms have been encouraged to link with local economies. Despite varied outcomes, African support for industrial parks remains strong. To be sustainable, African Special Economic Zones need constructive partnerships and strong African governance, backed by high-quality data to inform both Chinese and African government decisions.

Across the Blue Economy, science must play a fundamental role in moving us away from business as usual to a more sustainable pathway. It provides evidence to inform policy by understanding baselines, trends and tipping points, as well as the multiple and interacting effects of human activities and policy interventions. Measuring progress depends on strong evidence and requires the design of a monitoring framework based on well-defined objectives and indicators, informed by the diverse disciplines required to inform progress on cross-cutting policy objectives such as the Just Transition. The differences between the scientific and policy processes are stark and affect interaction between them, including, among other factors, the time pressures of governmental decision-making, and the lack of support and reward in academia for policy engagement. To enable improved integration, the diverse nature of the science / policy interface is important to recognise – improved communication between scientists and policy professionals within government is important, as well as interaction with the wider academic community through secondments and other mechanisms. Skills in working across boundaries are valuable, requiring training and professional recognition. We also discussed the science needs across the themes of the Just Transition, Sustainable Seafood, Nature-based Solutions and the Circular Economy, where we considered: • What research and knowledge can help us manage synergies and trade-offs? • Where is innovation needed to promote synergies? • What type of indicators, data and evidence are needed to measure progress? The insights developed through dialogue among participants on these themes are outlined in Section 4 of this report.