Academic literature on the topic 'Risk-Informed Decision Making'
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Journal articles on the topic "Risk-Informed Decision Making"
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Ayyub, Bilal M., Peter G. Prassinos, and John Etherton. "Risk-informed Decision Making." Mechanical Engineering 132, no. 01 (January 1, 2010): 28–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2010-jan-2.
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This article presents an overview of the need for inclusion of an effective risk analysis program in a product’s lifecycle. Risk-based technologies (RBT) are tools and processes used to assess and manage the risks of a component—or even of an entire system. One RBT method is risk assessment, which consists of hazard identification, scenario-probability assessment, and consequence assessment. Another method is risk control, which uses failure prevention and consequence mitigation, as well as risk communication. Risk can be quantified by estimating probabilities and consequences in a qualitative manner using expert opinion and communicated using matrices for preliminary screening. There are four primary ways available to deal with risk within the context of a risk management strategy: risk reduction or elimination, risk transfer, risk avoidance, and risk absorbance or pooling. The use of tools such as risk analysis helps enable decision makers to be as informed on the risks involved with each choice as they are with other important parameters of the system such as strategic importance, schedule criticality, cost, and customer satisfaction.
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Linden, Belinda. "Understanding risk and informed decision-making." British Journal of Cardiac Nursing 14, no. 1 (January 2, 2019): 10–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.12968/bjca.2019.14.1.10.
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Amendola, Aniello. "Recent paradigms for risk informed decision making." Safety Science 40, no. 1-4 (February 2002): 17–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0925-7535(01)00039-x.
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Päivinen, Minna. "354 Developing risk-informed decision-making processes." Injury Prevention 22, Suppl 2 (September 2016): A129.3—A130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042156.354.
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Papazoglou, Ioannis A., Gerasimos Bonanos, and Helen Briassoulis. "Risk informed decision making in land use planning." Journal of Risk Research 3, no. 1 (January 2000): 69–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/136698700376716.
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Ersdal, Gerhard, and Terje Aven. "Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 93, no. 2 (February 2008): 197–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.12.018.
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Ohanian, Edward V., John A. Moore, John R. Fowle, Gilbert S. Omenn, Steven C. Lewis, George M. Gray, and D. Warner North. "Risk Characterization: A Bridge to Informed Decision Making." Toxicological Sciences 39, no. 2 (1997): 81–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/toxsci/39.2.81.
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SRINIVAS, G., A. K. VERMA, and A. SRIVIDYA. "RISK INFORMED DECISION MAKING USING MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 16, no. 06 (December 2009): 483–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539309003526.
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Nuclear Power Plant operations are guided by Limiting conditions of operations (LCO's) laid out in the document referred to as the Technical Specifications (TS). This Technical Specification is a legitimate framework approved by the Regulatory Bodies for the Safe operations of the Nuclear Power plants. In the past, the regulatory bodies used a deterministic approach as the basis for making decisions on safety issues and organizing the activities that they carry out. This was done by applying high level criteria such as the need to provide defence in depth and adequate safety margins. However with the availability of detailed Plant Specific Level-1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), these limiting conditions need to be reviewed/revised based on the analysis results. This review of the LCO's is not a trivial exercise if the entire solution space of the variables defining the variables has to be investigated. This paper reviews the case for revision of Surveillance test frequencies of the Emergency Core Cooling System injection valves, using the multiobjective optimization technique.
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Ohanian, E. "Risk Characterization: A Bridge to Informed Decision Making,." Fundamental and Applied Toxicology 39, no. 2 (October 1997): 81–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/faat.1997.2358.
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Reinert, Joshua M., and George E. Apostolakis. "Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making." Annals of Nuclear Energy 33, no. 4 (March 2006): 354–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2005.11.010.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Risk-Informed Decision Making"
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Elliott, Michael A. (Michael Alfred). "Contributions to risk-informed decision making." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62690.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 104-107).
Risk-informed decision-making (RIDM) is a formal process that assists stakeholders make decisions in the face of uncertainty. At MIT, a tool known as the Analytic Deliberative Decision Making Process (ADP) has been under development for a number of years to provide an efficient framework for implementing RIDM. ADP was initially developed as a tool to be used by a small group of stakeholders but now it has become desirable to extend ADP to an engineering scale that can be used by many individual across large organizations. This dissertation identifies and addresses four challenges in extended the ADP to an engineering scale. Rigorous preference elicitation using pairwise comparisons is addressed. A new method for judging numerical scales used in these comparisons is presented along with a new type of scale. This theory is tested by an experiment involving 64 individuals and it is found that the optimal scale is a matter of individual choice. The elicitation of expert opinion is studied and a process that adapts to the complexity of the decision at hand is proposed. This method is tested with a case study involving the choice of a heat removal technology for a new type of fission reactor. Issues related to the unique informational needs of large organizations are investigated and new tools to handle these needs are developed. Finally, difficulties with computationally intensive modeling and simulation are identified and a new method of uncertainty propagation using orthogonal polynomials is explored. Using a code designed to investigate the LOCA behavior of a fission reactor, it is demonstrated that this new propagation methods offers superior convergence over existing techniques.
by Michael A. Elliott.
Ph.D.
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Reinert, Joshua M. "Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34536.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 66-68).
Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ACDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important.
(cont.) The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study. We then look at policy issues surrounding the effects of uncertainty in decision making related to nuclear power generation.
by Joshua M. Reinert.
S.M.
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Cha, Eun Jeong. "Risk-informed decision models for low-probability, high-consequence hazards." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/44803.
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Risk mitigation decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to rare natural and manmade hazards are often impacted by risk aversion, a behavioral phenomenon in which the decision maker's perception and judgment of risk are systematically distorted, resulting in decisions that might be viewed as excessively conservative when compared to those from a traditional minimum expected cost analysis. This study addresses how decisions regarding structural safety are affected by the attitudes of the decision-maker toward risk using decision models, such as cumulative prospect theory, that allow risk-averse behaviors to be modeled quantitatively. Perspectives on the general characteristics of risk-aversion are first drawn from risk pricing techniques in the insurance industry. These perspectives are then refined for structural engineering applications by investigations of decisions involving seismic retrofit of unreinforced masonry structures in San Francisco, CA and aseismic design of a steel moment frame in Vancouver, BC. Risk attitudes when confronting extreme wind hazards are also assessed using a decision by the North and South Carolina Code Councils to waive a provision in the International Residential Code that would have required additional windborne debris protection in residential construction. An examination of risk attitudes toward competing natural hazards is then introduced by comparing decisions related to wind and seismic effects in areas where both hazards may be significant. These investigations have led to tentative conclusions regarding the role of risk aversion in the assurance of structural safety and in code-related decisions and suggest avenues for future study.
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Castillo, Rodríguez Jesica Tamara. "INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: TOWARDS A RISK-INFORMED DECISION MAKING INCORPORATING NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/82305.
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Flood risk reduction is a global challenge. Society demands higher safety and security levels, including those actions related to flood defence infrastructure protection against natural hazards and manmade threats.
Dams and levees, among other flood defence infrastructures, are critical hydraulic infrastructures, aiming at reducing the likelihood that people and property will get flooded, but whose failure would result in consequences for the community downstream, including not only economic damages but also loss of life. There is always a probability associated with infrastructure failure, although in general it might be very low.
The purpose of the PhD research, with title "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", here presented is to propose a framework to enhance integrative flood risk management from a multi-hazard perspective (pluvial flooding, river flooding, dam and levee failure, including man-made threats), addressing current needs for decision making on flood risk reduction and analyzing the complexity of multiple hazards and systems which include multiple components.
The thesis is structured in three main parts, including: (i) Part I, a methodology aiming at providing a common framework for identifying and characterizing flood risk due to pluvial flooding, river flooding and dam failure, and incorporate information on loads, system response and consequences into risk models to analyse societal and economic flood risk, (ii) Part II, an approach for quantifying and analyzing risk for complex dam-levee systems, to incorporate information from levee failure into risk models based on the aforementioned methodology, and to analyse societal and economic flood risk, including the potential failure of these infrastructures, and (iii) Part III, a screening tool to characterize the impact of human induced threats on risk due to dam failure or mission disruption.
Results from this research have proven that the use of risk models provides a logic and mathematically rigorous framework for compiling information for flood risk characterization and analysis from different natural hazards and flood defence performance.
The proposed framework in this thesis and applications aimed at encouraging key actors on flood risk management (infrastructure managers, authorities, emergency action planners, etc.) on the use of QRA, and at demonstrating to what extent QRA can usefully contribute to better understanding risk drivers and inform decisions on how to act to efficiently reduce flood risk.La reducción del riesgo de inundación es un reto global. La sociedad actual demanda cada vez mayores niveles de seguridad, incluyendo la consecución de acciones vinculadas a la protección de las infraestructuras de defensa frente a inundaciones ante amenazas naturales y antrópicas. Presas y diques, entre otras obras de defensa, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo objetivo es reducir la probabilidad de inundación. Sin embargo, su fallo puede resultar en consecuencias para la comunidad situada aguas abajo, incluyendo no sólo daños económicos sino también pérdida potencial de vidas. Siempre existe una cierta probabilidad asociada al fallo de estas infraestructuras, aunque en general muy baja. El objetivo de la investigación llevada a cabo en la presente tesis doctoral, con título "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", es proporcionar un marco que fomente la gestión integral del riesgo de inundación desde una perspectiva multi-amenaza, considerando las necesidades actuales en la toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de inundación y analizando la complejidad de sistemas con múltiples componentes, afectados por diferentes amenazas. La tesis se estructura en tres partes principales, incluyendo: (a) Parte I, una metodología para proporcionar un marco común para la identificación y caracterización del riesgo de inundación por inundación pluvial, fluvial y fallo de presas, incorporando información sobre solicitaciones, respuesta del sistema y consecuencias en modelos de riesgo que permiten analizar y evaluar el riesgo social y económico por inundación, (b) Parte II, un método para la cuantificación y análisis del riesgo en sistemas complejos presa-dique, con el objetivo de incorporar información referente al fallo de diques en la metodología propuesta en la Parte I, y analizar el riesgo social y económico por inundación incluyendo el fallo de varias infraestructuras de defensa, y (c) Parte III, una herramienta de cribado que permite caracterizar el impacto de amenazas de origen antrópico en el riesgo asociado al fallo de presas. Los resultados de esta investigación demuestran que el uso de modelos de riesgo proporciona un marco lógico y matemáticamente riguroso para la consideración de toda la información necesaria para la adecuada caracterización y análisis del riesgo de inundación por amenazas naturales y por fallo o mal funcionamiento de obras de defensa. El marco metodológico propuesto y las aplicaciones descritas en esta tesis tienen como objetivo impulsar la aplicación del análisis de riesgo por parte de los actores clave en la gestión del riesgo de inundación (gestores de infraestructuras, autoridades locales, gestores de emergencias, etc.) y demostrar en qué medida estos análisis pueden contribuir a alcanzar un mejor conocimiento de los factores clave que componen el riesgo e informar en la toma de decisiones hacia una reducción del riesgo más eficiente.
La reducció del risc d'inundació és un repte global. La societat actual demana majors nivells de seguretat, incloent-hi la realització d'accions vinculades a la protecció de les infraestructures de defensa enfront del risc d'inundacions afectades per amenaces naturals i antròpiques. Preses i dics fluvials, entre altres obres de defensa, són infraestructures crítiques i tenen l'objectiu de reduir la probabilitat d'inundació però el seu trencament pot resultar en conseqüències en, danys econòmics i també pèrdua potencial de vides. Sempre hi ha una certa probabilitat vinculada al trencament d'aquestes infraestructures, encara que en general molt baixa. L'objectiu de la investigació duta a terme en aquesta tesi doctoral, amb títol "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", és proporcionar un marc per a fomentar la gestió integral del risc d'inundació des d'una perspectiva multi-amenaça, tenint en compte les necessitats actuals per prendre decisions per a la gestió del risc d'inundació i analitzant sistemes complexes amb múltiples components i afectats per diferents amenaces. La tesi s'estructura en tres parts principals: (a) Part I, una metodologia proposada per a proporcionar un marc comú per a la identificació i caracterització del risc d'inundació per inundació pluvial, fluvial i trencament de preses, incorporant informació de sol¿licitacions, resposta del sistema i conseqüències en models de risc que permeten analitzar el risc social i econòmic per inundació, (b) Part II, un mètode per a la quantificació i anàlisi del risc en sistemes complexes, amb l'objectiu d'incorporar informació referent al trencament de dics fluvials en la metodologia descrita en la Part I, i analitzar el risc social i econòmic pel trencament de diverses infraestructures de defensa, i (c) Part III, una ferramenta de pre-anàlisi per a caracteritzar l'impacte d'amenaces de origen antròpic en el risc associat al trencament de preses. Els resultats de la investigació demostren l'utilitat de l'aplicació de models de risc, proporcionant un marc lògic i matemàticament rigorós per a la consideració de tota la informació necessària per a l'adequada caracterització i anàlisi del risc d'inundació per amenaces naturals i per trencament d'obres de defensa. El marc metodològic i les aplicacions derivades d'aquesta tesi tenen com a objectiu impulsar l'aplicació d'anàlisi de risc quantitatius per part dels actors vinculats a la gestió del risc d'inundació (gestors d'infraestructures, autoritats locals, gestors d'emergències, etc.) i demostrar que poden contribuir a disposar d'un millor coneixement dels factors clau que componen el risc, i per a informar les decisions necessàries per a una reducció del risc més eficient.
Castillo Rodríguez, JT. (2017). INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: TOWARDS A RISK-INFORMED DECISION MAKING INCORPORATING NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/82305
TESIS
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Asadi, Esmaeel. "RISK-INFORMED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING STRUCTURES." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1575381834399844.
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Combier, Robert. "Risk-informed scenario-based technology and manufacturing evaluation of aircraft systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49046.
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In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detailed simulations and explorations of candidate future states of these systems help reduce a complex design problem into a comprehensible, manageable form where decision factors are prioritized. While there are still fundamental criticisms about using modeling and simulation, the emerging challenge becomes ``How do you best configure uncertainty analyses and the information they produce to address real world problems?”
One such analysis approach was developed in this thesis by structuring the input, models, and output to answer questions about the risk and economic impact of technology decisions in future aircraft programs. Unlike other methods, this method placed emphasis on the uncertainty in the cumulative cashflow space as the integrator of economic viability. From this perspective, it then focused on exploration of the design and technology space to tailor the business case and its associated risk in the cash flow dimension. The methodology is called CASSANDRA and is intended to be executed by a program manager of a manufacturer working of the development of future concepts. The program manager has the ability to control design elements as well as the new technology allocation on that aircraft. She is also responsible for the elicitation of the uncertainty in those dimensions within control as well as the external scenarios (that are out of program control). The methodology was applied on a future single-aisle 150 passenger aircraft design.
The overall methodology is compared to existing approaches and is shown to identify more economically robust design decisions under a set of at-risk program scenarios. Additionally, a set of metrics in the uncertain cumulative cashflow space were developed to assist the methodology user in the identification, evaluation, and selection of design and technology. These metrics are compared to alternate approaches and are shown to better identify risk efficient design and technology selections.
At the modeling level, an approach is given to estimate the production quantity based on an enhanced Overall Evaluation Criterion method that captures the competitive advantage of the aircraft design. This model was needed as the assumption of production quantity is highly influential to the business case risk. Finally, the research explored the capacity to generate risk mitigation strategies in to two analysis configurations: when available data and simulation capacity are abundant, and when they are sparse or incomplete. The first configuration leverages structured filtration of Monte Carlo simulation results. The allocation of design and technology risk is then identified on the Pareto Frontier. The second configuration identifies the direction of robust risk mitigation based on the available data and limited simulation ability. It leverages a linearized approximation of the cashflow metrics and identifies the direction of allocation using the Jacobian matrix and its inversion.
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Alipour, Mohammadhossein. "Applying the virtual structure of a risk-informed decision making framework for operating small hydropower reservoirs during high inflow events, case study : Cheakamus River system." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/43587.
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Operating hydropower reservoirs with small storage capacity is a challenging task due to the fact that in a watershed system there usually exist multiple stakeholders with different and conflicting preferences and values. Consequently the process of planning for reservoir operation must be carried out with consideration of several, usually competing, objectives. This process becomes even more challenging during a high inflow or flooding event for three main reasons. First, the objective of minimizing adverse consequences of such an event is added to the set of objectives that the operator must deal with. Second, inflow forecast uncertainty-driven risks are highly intensified due to the high sensitivity of the outcomes to inflow forecasts. And third, the available time for making a decision is very short while comprehensive analysis is a necessity in order to make an informed decision regarding the best operational alternative. Under these circumstances, the best approach to confront this challenge could be developing a Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) framework that provides operation planning engineers with a solid and pre-designed guideline to deal with the task of identifying the best operational alternative in an efficient and timely manner.
The current study is an attempt to apply the virtual structure of a RIDM framework for the Cheakamus River system in British Columbia. The framework is a coherent assembly of a number of methods and tools we have either developed or utilized from the existing widely used methods and techniques in practice. The product of our work is an example of the necessary tools that need to be used to develop recommendations for operating Daisy Lake reservoir during a high inflow event in a manner that all the operational objectives are served in the best possible way. This is done while taking into account making trade-offs among competing objectives. We illustrate the practical applicability and merits of the framework through applying it to a historical high inflow period in October 2003. The outcome is near real-time decisions with less dependency on only planners’ judgement and more dependency on thorough and systematic analysis with consideration of human judgement and possible risk tolerances.
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Asamoah, Matthew. "Historical review of fire safety at NPP and application of fire PSA to Westinghouse PWR NPP in the frame of risk-informed decision making by." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/663326.
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The importance of fire as a potential initiator of multiple-system failures took on a new perspective after the cable-tray fire at Browns Ferry in 1975 The review have shown that the first generation Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) fire safety was not factored as high risk area that needed to be effectively assessed and quantified. This resulted in development of peculiar fire safety regulations, standards and expensive backfits. Lack of appropriate regulations and effective methods of fire risk assessment, prescriptive, difficult and expensive retrofit regulations were instituted in USA. The alternative risk-informed performance based regulation was established in USA to resolve the challenges of the prescriptive rules. The review have revealed that both the prescriptive and risk-informed performance based approaches will not represent adequate design basis for new Nuclear Power Plants. The Japanese were pulled in the path of renew fire safety regulations and risk quantification after the Fukushima accident. It has been recognized that effective fire safety assessment, and culture, in concert with countermeasures to prevent, detect, suppress, and mitigate the effect of fires if they occur, will minimized NPP fire risk. Among the numerous recommendation the fire safety at NPP must be planned and engineered before construction begin using the state-of-the-arts technology. Also, the methods of fire risk assessment must integrate the state-of-the-arts deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Two methods are presented which serve to incorporate the fire-related risk into the current practices in nuclear power plants with respect to the assessment of configurations. The first method is a fire protection systems and key safety functions Unavailability Matrix (UM) which is developed to identify structures, systems, and components significant for fire-related risk. The second method is a fire zones and key safety functions (KSFs) fire risk matrix which is useful to identify fire zones which are candidates for risk management actions. The UM is an innovative tool to communicate fire risk. The Monte Carlo method has been used to assess the uncertainty of the UM. The analysis shows that the uncertainty is sufficiently bounded. The significant fire-related risk is localized in six KSF representative components and one fire protection system which should be included in the maintenance rule. The unavailability of fire protection systems does not significantly affect the risk. The fire risk matrix identifies the fire zones that contribute the most to the fire-related risk. These zones belong to the control building and electric penetrations building. The aggregation of Internal Events PSA model and Fire PSA model have shown that the Fire PSA contributes 38.4% to the Risk increase. The feasibility of developing Fire-related Risk Monitor from the FIRE PSA for the Spanish NPP was carried out. One of the main challenges is that RiskSpectrum® fire PSA has 384 fire cases and 384 CDF but in Risk Monitor one CDF is required. However, CAFTA is unable to convert a Sequential Fault Tree structure of the internal Event tree in the Fire PSA. The conversion fails to implement neither all of the sequences leading to core damage nor the Fault Tree selection of the frequency of fire. The proposal is to suppress exchange events and introduce the alignment of the consequences so that a unique result of core damage can be quantified. The detection and fire suppression Event Trees in the reference model were replaced by detection and fire extinction Fault trees. The frequency of each Fire Case of the conversion model and the reference model are quantified and the frequencies compared. The results shows that 90% of the cases are valid, however, the rest have challenges with MCS. A unique CDF of 7.65x10-7 is quantified compared with 9.83×10-6 of the reference. The conversion of the new model in CAFTA was not successful due to software incompatibility.La importància del incendi com un potencial iniciador de sistema múltiples fallides van agafar una nova perspectiva després del incendi al cable-safata de Browns Ferry el 1975. La revisió ha mostrat que la primera generació de seguretat contra incendis de centrals d'Energia Nuclear (NPP) no va ser àrea de alt risc, àrea que necessitava ser efectivament avaluada i quantificada. Això va resultar en el desenvolupament de normes de seguretat de incendi peculiar, estàndards i cares revisions. La manca d'una reglamentació adequada i mètodes eficaços d'avaluació de risc d'incendi, va fer que als USA foren instituïts mètodes d'adaptació de normativa preceptius, difícils i costós. L'alternativa de regulació informada per el risc es va establir als USA per resoldre els reptes de la regulació preceptiva. La revisió ha mostrat que tant als enfocaments de normativa preceptiva i regulació informada per el risc no representen bases de disseny adequades per a noves NPP. Ha estat reconeguda que la efectiva avaluació de seguretat al incendi i la cultura en concert amb mesures per prevenir, detectar, suprimir i mitigar l'efecte d'incendis, si es produeixen, minimitzarà el risc d'incendi en una NPP. Entre les nombroses recomanacions la seguretat contra incendis a una NPP s'hauran previst i dissenyat abans de començar la construcció i utilitzant estat del art de la tecnologia. També, els mètodes d'avaluació del risc d'incendi tindran que integrar el estat del art en els enfocaments de determinista i probabilístics. Dos mètodes són presentats que serveixen per incorporar el risc relacionats amb el foc a les pràctiques actuals en centrals nuclears en respecte a l'avaluació de configuracions. El primer mètode és un sistema de protecció contra incendis i una matriu de indisponiblitats de les funcions clau de seguretat (MU) que es desenvolupa per a identificar estructures, sistemes i components significatius per riscos relacionats amb els incendis. El segon mètode és zones de focs i matriu de risc d'incendi i funcions (KSFs) clau de seguretat que és útil identificar les zones de foc que són candidats per a les accions de gestió de risc. La MU és una eina innovadora per comunicar el risc d'incendi. El risc significatiu relacionats amb el incendi està localitzat en sis components representatius KSF i un sistema de protecció de foc que cal que figuri en la regla de manteniment. La manca de sistemes de protecció contra incendis no afecta significativament al risc. La matriu de risc d'incendi identifica les zones de foc que mes contribueixen al risc relacionats amb el incendi. Aquestes zones pertanyen a l'edifici de control i edifici de penetracions elèctriques. L'agregació del model de PSA de esdeveniments interns i model de incendis PSA han demostrat que el PSA de incendis aporta 38.4% a l'augment de risc. S'ha desenvolupat la viabilitat del Monitor de risc de incendis a partir del PSA de incendis per a una central nuclear espanyola. Un dels reptes principals és que RiskSpectrum® incendis PSA te 384 casos de incendis i te 384 CDF però en risc Monitor és necessària una CDF. Tanmateix, el CAFTA és incapaç de convertir una estructura seqüencial de arbre de fallida de l'arbre esdeveniment interna en el PSA de incendis. La conversió fracassa al posar en pràctica totes les seqüències de danys al nucli i la selecció de l'arbre de fallida de la freqüència de incendi. La descoberta i supressió de arbres de l'esdeveniment de incendi en el model de referència es van substituir per detecció i els arbres de fallades d'extinció d'incendi. La freqüència de cada cas de incendi del model de conversió i el model de referència son quantificades i les freqüències son comparades. Els resultats demostra que el 90% dels casos són vàlid, no obstant això, la resta té reptes amb MCS. Un únic CDF de 7.65x10-7 s'ha quantificat en comparació amb 9.83 × 10-6 de la referència. La conversió del nou model a CAFTA no va tenir èxit a causa de la incompatibilitat del programari.
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Fluixá, Sanmartín Javier. "Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/157634.
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[ES] Las grandes presas, así como los diques de protección, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo fallo puede conllevar importantes consecuencias económicas y sociales. Tradicionalmente, la gestión del riesgo y la definición de estrategias de adaptación en la toma de decisiones han asumido la invariabilidad de las condiciones climáticas, incluida la persistencia de patrones históricos de variabilidad natural y la frecuencia de eventos extremos. Sin embargo, se espera que el cambio climático afecte de forma importante a los sistemas hídricos y comprometa la seguridad de las presas, lo que puede acarrear posibles impactos negativos en términos de costes económicos, sociales y ambientales. Los propietarios y operadores de presas deben por tanto adaptar sus estrategias de gestión y adaptación a medio y largo plazo a los nuevos escenarios climáticos.
En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una metodología integral para incorporar los impactos del cambio climático en la gestión de la seguridad de presas y en el apoyo a la toma de decisiones. El objetivo es plantear estrategias de adaptación que incorporen la variabilidad de los futuros riesgos, así como la incertidumbre asociada a los nuevos escenarios climáticos.
El impacto del cambio climático en la seguridad de presas se ha estructurado utilizando modelos de riesgo y mediante una revisión bibliográfica interdisciplinaria sobre sus potenciales efectos. Esto ha permitido establecer un enfoque dependiente del tiempo que incorpore la evolución futura del riesgo, para lo cual se ha definido un nuevo indicador que evalúa cuantitativamente la eficiencia a largo plazo de las medidas de reducción de riesgo. Además, para integrar la incertidumbre de los escenarios futuros en la toma de decisiones, la metodología propone una estrategia robusta que permite establecer secuencias optimizadas de implementación de medidas correctoras para la adaptación al cambio climático. A pesar de las dificultades para asignar probabilidades a eventos específicos, esta metodología permite un análisis sistemático y objetivo, reduciendo considerablemente la subjetividad.
Esta metodología se ha aplicado al caso real de una presa española susceptible a los efectos del cambio climático. El análisis se centra en el escenario hidrológico, donde las avenidas son la principal carga a la que está sometida la presa. Respecto de análisis previos de la presa, los resultados obtenidos proporcionan nueva y valiosa información sobre la evolución de los riesgos futuros y sobre cómo abordarlos. En general, se espera un aumento del riesgo con el tiempo; esto ha llevado a plantear nuevas medidas de adaptación que no están justificadas en la situación actual. Esta es la primera aplicación documentada de un análisis exhaustivo de los impactos del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de rotura de una presa que sirve como marco de referencia para la definición de estrategias de adaptación a largo plazo y la evaluación de su eficiencia.[CAT] Les grans preses, així com els dics de protecció, són infraestructures crítiques que si fallen poden produir importants conseqüències econòmiques i socials. Tradicionalment, la gestió del risc i la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació en la presa de decisions han assumit la invariabilitat de les condicions climàtiques, inclosa la persistència de patrons històrics de variabilitat natural i la probabilitat d'esdeveniments extrems. No obstant això, s'espera que el canvi climàtic afecte de manera important als sistemes hídrics i comprometi la seguretat de les preses, la qual cosa pot implicar possibles impactes negatius en termes de costos econòmics, socials i ambientals. Els propietaris i operadors de preses deuen per tant adaptar les seues estratègies de gestió i adaptació a mitjà i llarg termini als nous escenaris climàtics. En la present tesi s'ha desenvolupat una metodologia integral per a incorporar els impactes del canvi climàtic en la gestió de la seguretat de preses i en el suport a la presa de decisions. L'objectiu és plantejar estratègies d'adaptació que incorporen la variabilitat dels futurs riscos, així com la incertesa associada als nous escenaris climàtics. L'impacte del canvi climàtic en la seguretat de preses s'ha estructurat utilitzant models de risc i mitjançant una revisió bibliogràfica interdisciplinària sobre els seus potencials efectes. Això ha permès establir un enfocament dependent del temps que incorpori l'evolució futura del risc, per a això s'ha definit un nou indicador que avalua quantitativament l'eficiència a llarg termini de les mesures de reducció de risc. A més, per a integrar la incertesa dels escenaris futurs en la presa de decisions, la metodologia proposa una estratègia robusta que permet establir seqüències optimitzades d'implementació de mesures correctores per a l'adaptació al canvi climàtic. A pesar de les dificultats per a assignar probabilitats a esdeveniments específics, esta metodologia permet una anàlisi sistemàtica i objectiva, reduint considerablement la subjectivitat. Aquesta metodologia s'ha aplicat al cas real d'una presa espanyola susceptible a l'efecte del canvi climàtic. L'anàlisi se centra en l'escenari hidrològic, on les avingudes són la principal càrrega a la qual està sotmesa la presa. Respecte d'anàlisis prèvies de la presa, els resultats obtinguts proporcionen nova i valuosa informació sobre l'evolució dels riscos futurs i sobre com abordar-los. En general, s'espera un augment del risc amb el temps; això ha portat a plantejar noves mesures d'adaptació que no estarien justificades en la situació actual. Aquesta és la primera aplicació documentada d'una anàlisi exhaustiva dels impactes del canvi climàtic sobre el risc de trencament d'una presa que serveix com a marc de referència per a la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació a llarg termini i l'avaluació de la seua eficiencia.
[EN] Large dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose failure has major economic and social consequences. Risk assessment approaches and decision-making strategies have traditionally assumed the stationarity of climatic conditions, including the persistence of historical patterns of natural variability and the likelihood of extreme events. However, climate change has a major impact on the world's water systems and is endangering dam safety, leading to potentially damaging impacts in terms of economic, social and environmental costs. Owners and operators of dams must adapt their mid- and long-term management and adaptation strategies to new climate scenarios. This thesis proposes a comprehensive approach to incorporate climate change impacts on dam safety management and decision-making support. The goal is to design adaptation strategies that incorporate the non-stationarity of future risks as well as the uncertainties associated with new climate scenarios. Based on an interdisciplinary review of the state-of-the-art research on its potential effects, the global impact of climate change on dam safety is structured using risk models. This allows a time-dependent approach to be established to consider the potential evolution of risk with time. Consequently, a new indicator is defined to support the quantitative assessment of the long-term efficiency of risk reduction measures. Additionally, in order to integrate the uncertainty of future scenarios, the approach is enhanced with a robust decision-making strategy that helps establish the consensus sequence of measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation. Despite the difficulties to allocate probabilities to specific events, such framework allows for a systematic and objective analysis, reducing considerably the subjectivity. Such a methodology is applied to a real case study of a Spanish dam subjected to the effects of climate change. The analysis focus on hydrological scenarios, where floods are the main load to which the dam is subjected. The results provide valuable new information with respect to the previously existing analysis of the dam regarding the evolution of future risks and how to cope with it. In general, risks are expected to increase with time and, as a result, new adaptation measures that are not justifiable for the present situation are recommended. This is the first documented application of a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on dam failure risk and serves as a reference benchmark for the definition of long-term adaptation strategies and the evaluation of their efficiency.
Fluixá Sanmartín, J. (2020). Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/157634
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Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem. "Multi-Hazards Risk Aggregation Considering the Trustworthiness of the Risk Assessment." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SACLC096.
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Cette thèse de doctorat aborde le problème de l'agrégation de risques multiple (MHRA), qui vise à agréger les risques estimés pour différents contributeurs. La pratique actuelle de la MHRA est basée sur une sommation arithmétique simple des estimations de risques. Cependant, ces estimations sont obtenues à partir de modèles EPS (Estimation Probabiliste de risque) qui présentent des degrés de réalisme différents liés à différents niveaux de connaissances. En ne prenant pas en compte ces différences, le processus MHRA pourrait conduire à des résultats trompeurs pour la prise de décision (DM). Dans cette thèse, un cadre structuré est proposé afin d’évaluer le niveau de réalisme et de confiance dans les évaluations de risques et de l’intégrer dans le processus de MHRA. Ces travaux ont permis : (i) Une identification des facteurs contribuant à la fiabilité de l'évaluation des risques. Leurs criticités sont analysées afin de comprendre leur influence sur l’estimation des risques; (ii) Un cadre hiérarchique intégré est développé pour évaluer la confiance et le réalisme de l'estimation de risque, sur la base des facteurs et des attributs identifiés en (i); (iii) Une méthode basée sur un modèle réduit est proposée pour évaluer efficacement la fiabilité de l'évaluation des risques dans la pratique. Grâce à cette méthode, le nombre d'éléments pris en compte dans l'évaluation initiale des risques peut être limité. (iv) Une technique qui combine la théorie de Dempster-Shafer et le processus de hiérarchie analytique (DST-AHP) est appliquée au modèle développé. Cette technique permet d’évaluer le niveau de réalisme et confiance -dans l’analyse de risque- en utilisant une moyenne pondérée des attributs: la méthode AHP est utilisée pour calculer le poids des attributs et la méthode DST est utilisée pour tenir compte de l'incertitude subjective dans le jugement des experts dans l'évaluation des poids; (v) Une technique de MHRA est développée sur la base d'un modèle de moyenne bayésienne afin de surmonter les limites de la pratique actuelle de MHRA qui néglige le réalisme et confiance dans l'évaluation de chaque contributoire de risque; (vi) Le modèle développé est appliqué sur des cas réels de l'industrie des centrales nucléairesThis PhD thesis addresses the problem of Multi-Hazards Risk Aggregation (MHRA), which aims at aggregating the risk estimates from Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models for the different contributors. The current practice of MHRA is based on a simple arithmetic summation of the risk estimates. However, the risk estimates are obtained from PRA models that have different degrees of trustworthiness, because of the different background knowledge they are based on. Ignoring this difference in MHRA could lead to misleading results for Decision-Making (DM). In this thesis, a structured framework is proposed to assess the level of trustworthiness, which risk assessment results are based on and to integrate it in the process of MHRA. The original scientific contributions are: (i) Factors contributing to the trustworthiness of risk assessment outcomes are identified and their criticalities are analyzed under different frameworks, to understand their influence on the risk results; (ii) An integrated hierarchical framework is developed for assessing the trustworthiness of risk analysis, based on the identified factors and related attributes; (iii) A reduced order model-based method is proposed to efficiently evaluate the trustworthiness of risk assessment in practice. Through the reduced-order model, the proposed method can limit the number of elements considered in the original risk assessment; (iv) A technique that combines Dempster Shafer Theory and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (namely, DSTAHP) is applied to the developed framework to assess the trustworthiness by a weighted average of the attributes in the framework: the AHP method is used to derive the weights of the attributes and the DST is used to account for the subjective uncertainty in the experts’ judgments for the evaluation of the weights; (v) A MHRA technique is developed based on Bayesian model averaging, to overcome the limitations of the current practice of risk aggregation that neglects the trustworthiness of the risk assessment of individual hazard groups; (vi) The developed framework is applied to real case studies from the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) industry
Books on the topic "Risk-Informed Decision Making"
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Drouin, M. Glossary of risk-related terms in support of risk-informed decisionmaking. [Washington, D.C.]: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, 2013.
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American College of Physician Executives., ed. Medical risk and the right to an informed consent in clinical care and clinical research. Tampa, Fla: American College of Physician Executives, 1998.
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Hardman, Jonathan G. Consent, benefit, and risk in anaesthetic practice. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009.
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Doverspike, William F. Ethical risk management: Guidelines for practice. 2nd ed. Sarasota, FL: Professional Resource Press, 2012.
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Best Practices for Risk-Informed Decision Making Regarding Contaminated Sites. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.17226/18747.
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Agency, International Atomic Energy. Considerations on Performing Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making: IAEA TecDoc No. 1909. International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020.
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Issues and Recommendations for Advancement for PRA Technology in Risk-Informed Decision Making. USGOV, 1999.
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Issues and recommendations for advancement of PRA technology in risk-informed decision making. Washington, D.C: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, 2003.
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Best Practices for Risk-Informed Decision Making Regarding Contaminated Sites: Summary of a Workshop Series. National Academies Press, 2014.
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U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission., ed. An Approach For Plant-Specific, Risk-Informed, Decision Making: Inservice Testing... Draft DG-1062... September 30, 1997. [S.l: s.n., 1998.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Risk-Informed Decision Making"
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Oboni, Franco, and Cesar Oboni. "Risk-Informed Decision Making." In Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century, 219–65. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19447-5_15.
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Saouma, Victor E., and M. Amin Hariri-Ardebili. "Risk-Informed Decision Making." In Aging, Shaking, and Cracking of Infrastructures, 667–84. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57434-5_28.
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Shanley, Leo, Doug True, Edward Parsley, John Steinmetz, and William Burchill. "Risk-Informed Decision Making with PARAGON™." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 450–55. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_73.
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Verma, A. K., Ajit Srividya, Vinod Gopika, and Karanki Durga Rao. "Risk-Informed Decision Making in Nuclear Power Plants." In Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, 325–63. London: Springer London, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-470-8_12.
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Rake, Eivind L. "A Risk — Informed Approach to Decision Making in Rescue Operations." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 134–39. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_22.
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Macsuga, Géza. "Risk-informed Decision Making at the Hungarian Nuclear Safety Authority." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 1415–20. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_228.
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Weerakkody, S. D. "Risk-Informed Decision Making in Generic Safety Issue Resolution and Rulemaking." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 938–43. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_152.
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Martorell, Sebastian, Jose F. Villanueva, Yolanda Nebot, Sofia Carlos, Vicente Serradell, and Ana Sanchez. "From Risk to RAMS informed decision-making on changes to TSM." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 1174–80. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_190.
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Kauer, Robert, and Hubert Sacher. "Asset Management and Cost Saving Maintenance Strategy Based on Risk-Informed Decision Making." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 951–56. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_154.
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Paulos, Todd, and Alexis A. Flippen. "Application of PRA for Risk-Informed Decision-Making on a Space Station Payload." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 1702–7. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_273.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Risk-Informed Decision Making"
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Hassanien, Sherif, Doug Langer, and Mona Abdolrazaghi. "Integrity Risk-Informed Decision Making." In 2018 12th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2018-78149.
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Over the last three decades, safety-critical industries (e.g. Nuclear, Aviation) have witnessed an evolution from risk-based to risk-informed safety management approaches, in which quantitative risk assessment is only one component of the decision making process. While the oil and gas pipeline industry has recently made several advancements towards safety management processes, their safety performance may still be seen to fall below the expected level achieved by other safety-critical industries. The intent of this paper is to focus on the safety decision making process within pipeline integrity management systems. Pipeline integrity rules, routines, and procedures are commonly based on regulatory requirements, industry best practices, and engineering experience; where they form “programmed” decisions. Non-programmed safety and business decisions are unique and “usually” unstructured, where solutions are worked out as problems arise. Non-programmed decision making requires more activities towards defining decision alternatives and mutual adjustment by stakeholders in order to reach an optimal decision. Theoretically, operators are expected to be at a maturity level where programmed decisions are ready for most, if not all, of their operational problems. However, such expectations might only cover certain types of threats and integrity situations. Herein, a formal framework for non-programmed integrity decisions is introduced. Two common decision making frameworks; namely, risk-based and risk-informed are briefly discussed. In addition, the paper reviews the recent advances in nuclear industry in terms of decision making, introduces a combined technical and management decision making process called integrity risk-informed decision making (IRIDM), and presents a guideline for making integrity decisions.
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Lupo, John. "Geotechnical risk-informed decision-making in mining." In First International Conference on Mining Geomechanical Risk. Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.36487/acg_rep/1905_0.5_lupo.
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Smith, Curtis, and Kurt Vedros. "Risk-Informed Decision Making for High-Consequence Outcomes." In ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2010-37187.
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The issues faced during the operation of high-consequence facilities or systems require a blended quantitative and qualitative risk-informed approach to decision-making. For example, in the case of the operation of nuclear power plants or manned space missions, a risk-informed metric one might consider is the probability of loss of the plant or failure of the mission, where this probability is balanced by the consequences of the event. However, as we will discuss, one should focus on the observable event itself (e.g., the actual loss or failure) rather than the probability of the event. We will describe the general approach of making probabilistic decisions, including the focus on predictive distributions for outcomes such as a complex system failure.
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Van Bossuyt, Douglas, Chris Hoyle, Irem Y. Tumer, Richard Malak, Toni Doolen, and Andy Dong. "Toward an Early-Phase Conceptual System Design Risk-Informed Decision Making Framework." In ASME 2012 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2012-89639.
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Current methods of risk analysis conducted during the early phases of complex system design do not give a clear voice to the customer or design engineer when considering engineering risk attitude in the dynamic shaping of early-phase conceptual design trade study outcomes. The existing methods either collect risk information following the completion of a conceptual design thus treating risk as an afterthought during trade studies, make risk-informed decisions prior to the conduction of trade studies thus artificially constraining the design space, or do not consider risk at all. This paper proposes a risk-informed decision making framework that offers a new, meaningful way of accounting for risk during trade studies, informs design decisions during trade studies with pertinent risk information, and takes into account risk attitude of the design engineer or customer when risk-informed decisions are made. Risk is elevated to the same level of importance as other system level variables in trade studies and risk-based decisions are made by individual subsystem engineers through the lens of risk appetite. Several previously developed methods of risk trading, assessing engineering risk attitude, and making risk-informed decisions based upon engineering risk attitude using utility theory are synthesized into the risk-informed decision-making framework. Implementation methods for trade studies being performed by groups of people and automatically by computers are presented. Sensitivity of the framework to input variable variation is examined. A spacecraft example is employed to demonstrate the usefulness of the framework. This paper provides a novel framework for risk-informed design decisions made within trade studies that are based upon engineering risk attitudes in early phase conceptual design.
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Narumiya, Yoshiyuki, Kentaro Hayashi, and Takahiro Kuramoto. "Challenges of Evolution for the Risk-Informed Decision Making Standard." In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-67525.
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Risk-informed applications for the purpose of optimized decision making in safety related activities, including safety design and operational management of nuclear power plants, can be widely adopted by regulators, manufacturers as well as utilities. Utilization of risk information is expected to contribute to the achievement of safety improvement in operating nuclear power plants in an optimized way. In addition, effective utilization of risk information is essential to cope with the changes in safety related activities reflecting the latest experiences and findings for the continuous improvement of the safety of nuclear power plants into the future. In this regard, the Standards Committee of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan is working on the establishment of the new standard specifying the basic requirements regarding risk-informed decision making (hereafter, called “RIDM”). This paper introduces the policies toward the establishment of the RIDM Standard.
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Kurtoglu, Tolga, and Irem Y. Tumer. "A Risk-Informed Decision Making Methodology for Evaluating Failure Impact of Early System Designs." In ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2008-49359.
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In this paper, we introduce a new risk-informed decision-making methodology for use during early design of complex systems. The proposed approach is based on the notion that a failure happens when a functional element in the system does not perform its intended task. Accordingly, risk is defined depending on the role of functionality in accomplishing designed tasks. A simulation-based failure analysis tool is used to analyze functional failures and their impact on overall system functionality. The analysis results are then integrated into a decision-making framework that relates the impact of functional failures and their propagation to decision making in order to guide system level design decisions. With the help of the proposed methodology, a multitude of failure scenarios can be quickly analyzed to determine the effects of decisions on overall system risk. Using this decision-making approach, design teams can systematically explore risks and vulnerabilities during early, functional stage of system development prior to the selection of specific components. Application of the presented method to a reservoir system design demonstrates these capabilities.
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Mancuso, A., M. Compare, A. Salo, and E. Zio. "Risk-informed decision making under incomplete information: Portfolio decision analysis and credal networks." In The 2nd International Conference on Engineering Sciences and Technologies. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742: CRC Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315210469-97.
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Narumiya, Yoshiyuki, Mitsumasa Hirano, and Masashi Hirano. "A Technical Overview of The Japan’s Standards for Risk-Informed Decision Making." In 18th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone18-29946.
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In Japan, a lot of efforts have been made on severe accident study, and development and application of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique. The PSA was applied to the examination of the accident management (AM) plan in the beginning of 1990s and was performed for all the nuclear power plants (NPPs) to evaluate the effects of the AM. Furthermore, the PSA has been performed as part of periodic safety review (PSR) to review the safety of individual plant. In recent years, discussions have started to apply risk information to the safety regulation or safety related activities to improve rationality, accountability and transparency. As the technical foundations, the Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC) showed the safety goals and policy toward risk informed decision making (RIDM), and the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) developed guidelines for risk informed regulation (RIR). Consensus standards have been developed in the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ), the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, and the Japan Electric Association. Especially, the AESJ established the Standards Committee in 1999 and has made several PSA standards. Now, there are seven PSA standards. The most important one is the seismic PSA standard. It was developed ahead of the world as a concrete manual. Lots of illustrations and useful example are included for ease of use and to make decision adequately. There were needs to develop a standard, which provides the basic requirements and specific procedures commonly applicable to respective fields of utilization of RIDM regarding changes in safety related activities. Responding to such needs, an implementation standard has been developed on use of risk information in changing the safety related activities. It stands over individual standards that will be developed in future, and shows the common and basic rules. It requires being consistent with the defense-in-depth philosophy, to maintain sufficient safety margins, and to clarify the influence to safety by comparing with some criteria. And it also requires as a final step that a comprehensive decision be made by considering various items, e.g. the defense-in-depth, safety margins, risk indices, and implementation and monitoring program. We will continue to make an effort toward RIDM and develop the standard to assess dominant risk hazards, e.g. fire risk and internal flooding risk. Moreover, it is necessary to develop the standard for individual applications in future.
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Montecalvo, Michael, Matthew Humberstone, and Jing Xing. "Role of Human Reliability Analysis in Post-Fukushima Risk-Informed Decision Making." In Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL). Singapore: Research Publishing Services, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0644-cd.
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Frangopol, Dan M., and Samantha Sabatino. "Risk- and Sustainability-Informed Decision Making for Structures in a Life-Cycle Context." In Joint COST TU1402 - COST TU1406 - IABSE WC1 Workshop: The Value of Structural Health Monitoring for the reliable Bridge Management. University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5592/co/bshm2017.2.1.
Full textReports on the topic "Risk-Informed Decision Making"
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Muhlheim, Michael David, Randy Belles, and Richard S. Denning. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), May 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1329123.
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Cash, Leigh J. Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Potential Inhalation of Plutonium-239 and -238 Dioxide Nanoparticles: Use of Default Assumptions and Material-Specific Data for Assessing Dose. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), February 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1119810.
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