Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risk Managment'

The aim of my thesis was to analyze and identify main types of risks and uncertainties, which can be faced by international companies. I also described main ways and methods of avoidance and minimisation of such risky situations. AB Inbev was chosen as an example since I was working in the branch of this company located in Prague, Czech Republic. This explains my concentration mainly on the market for beverages.

Au cours d'un prêt à long terme, la capacité d'un emprunteur à rembourser peut varier considérablement. En tout temps, l'emprunteur connait sa capacité de remboursement, mais s'il est coûteux pour la banque de la connaître, elle ne surveillera les prêts individuels que sporadiquement. Cette thèse propose un modèle théorique statique qui explore comment une banque qui maximise ses bénéfices choisit l'intensité de surveillance et un seuil de rentabilité minimale pour lequel le prêt est maintenu. Le modèle est ensuite utilisé pour montrer que l'assouplissement des conditions d'octroi de crédit et la baisse des spreads observés avant la crise financière ont été causés par une augmentation des dépôts de l'épargne globale plutôt qu'une politique monétaire accommodante. Par la suite, le modèle statique est étendu pour inclure des chocs globaux expliquant l'évolution des normes de crédits au cours du cycle conjoncturel. Cette analyse suggère que plusieurs éléments du cycle du crédit peuvent être considérés comme rationnels. Une dernière extension du modèle examine les effets que des taux d'intérêt fixes exercent sur l'évolution du risque de crédit et de la distribution de la rentabilité des entreprises
During the course of a long-maturity loan, a borrower's ability to repay can change quite considerably. At any point in time, this repayment capacity is known by the borrower but if it is costly for the bank to become informed, it may only monitor individual loans infrequently. This thesis presents a static theoretical model in which a profit-maximizing bank chooses its monitoring frequency and a minimum level of profitability at which the loan is allowed to continue. The model is then used to argue that the relaxation in crédit standards and lower crédit spreads observed prior to the financial crisis is better explained by a rise in global savings rather than lax monetary policy. The static model is then extended to include aggregate shocks to explain the evolution of credit terms over the business cycle. This analysis suggests that many features of the credit cycle could be rational. A further extension considers the effects of fixed interest rates on the evolution of credit risk and the cross-sectional distribution of the profitability of firms

Human impact on groundwater resources has led to a rapid growth of social concerns worldwide owing to an increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface. Risk assessment provides the scientific tool needed to quantify the actual thread that these potential hazards pose to human health. Specifically, risk analysis enables decision makers to answer: What can happen? How likely is it to happen? What can be the consequences? Risk assessment is in this context essential. However, modeling efforts involve in risk analysis are still facing several problems. Among them, in some cases, degradation products can constitute new noxious chemical compounds not necessarily less toxic than their parent product. Thus, the original pollutants and their daughter products are susceptible to co-exist in the aquifer forming a hazardous chemical mixture composed of products of different toxicity. This renders the quantification and interpretation of human health risk a non-trivial and challenging task. Also, the lack of information in the hydraulic and biochemical properties renders transport predictions to be highly uncertain. Stochastic human health risk assessment incorporates hydrogeological uncertainty in human health predictions. This way, probabilistic risk models can be used to determine the likelihood of risk exceeding a given regulatory threshold value or the expected threat to the exposed population and its uncertainty. Unfortunately, these approaches are very computationally demanding. Moreover, the diverse mineralogical composition of a real soil and the complex spatial variability of aquifer properties can produce a mixture of rates of mass transfer between regions of mobile and immobile contaminants. Finally, risk predictions are typically challenged by the complexity of the source zone condition. Existing reactive transport models based on Eulerian methods still undergo computational burden and numerical problems when modeling strong hydro-biochemical heterogeneities with complex reactions in multi-porosity systems. In this context, Particle Tracking Methods constitute a feasible alternative but these methods are limited in the range of applicability. The work presented in this thesis proposes an efficient particle tracking solution capable to simulate serial-parallel degradation reactions in multiple porosity systems with rate-limited mass transfer and strong heterogeneities. The method is then used to characterize the human health risk posed by chemical mixtures in highly heterogeneous porous media under complex source zone conditions. In particular, we investigate the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity, connectivity, contaminant injection mode and chemical toxicity in the probabilistic characterization of health risk. We illustrate how chemical-specific travel times control the regime of the expected risk and its corresponding uncertainties. Results indicate conditions where preferential flow paths can favor the reduction of the overall risk of the chemical mixture. The overall human risk response to aquifer connectivity is shown to be non-trivial for multi-species transport. This non-triviality is a result of the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity and chemical toxicity. To quantify the joint effect of connectivity and toxicity in health risk, we propose a toxicity-based Damköhler number. Results also show that the degradation capacity of immobile water regions and the mass depletion model can play a significant role on the spatiotemporal behavior of the contaminant mixture. Our work furthermore highlights the potential impact of the water flux passing through the source zone on the effective increased lifetime cancer risk due to a reactive chemical mixture. Counter-intuitively, the source zone efficiency is shown to have a beneficial effect on the risk. The total risk tends indeed to decrease for high source zone efficiency due to the consequential decrease in travel times near the source zone.
El impacto humano sobre los recursos hídricos que forman los acuíferos es actualmente una de las grandes preocupaciones sociales en crecimiento debido a la presencia antrópica cada vez mayor de productos químicos tóxicos liberados en el subsuelo. El análisis de riesgo proporciona la herramienta científica necesaria para cuantificar el peligro real que estos contaminantes suponen para la salud humana. En concreto, el análisis de riesgo permite tomar decisiones que respondan a las siguientes preguntas: Qué puede pasar?. Qué tan probable es que suceda? Cuál pueden ser las consecuencias?. El análisis de riesgo es una herramienta clave en este sentido. Sin embargo, los esfuerzos de modelación necesarios para llevar a cabo el análisis de riesgo se enfrentan con varios problemas. Entre ellos, algunos productos tóxicos de degradación pueden constituir nuevos compuestos químicos nocivos no necesariamente menos tóxico que su producto padre. Por lo tanto, los contaminantes originales y sus productos hijos son susceptibles de coexistir en los acuíferos formando una mezcla de compuestos químicos de diferente toxicidad. Esto hace que la cuantificación e interpretación del riesgo para la salud humana sea una tarea no trivial y desafiante. Por otra parte, la falta de informaci´on en las propiedades hidráulicas y bioquímicos hace que las predicciones sobre el comportamiento de dichos contaminantes en el subsuelo sean altamente inciertas. El análisis de riesgo estocástico incorpora de forma natural la incertidumbre hidrogeológica que existe en las predicciones de riesgo para la salud humana. De esta manera, estos modelos pueden ser utilizados para determinar la probabilidad de que el riesgo supere un valor umbral o el valor esperado del riesgo y su incertidumbre. Desafortunadamente, estos enfoques son muy exigentes en tiempo de cálculo. Además de estas dos problemáticas, también se tiene que tener en cuenta que la composición mineralógica de un suelo real es diversa y variable en el espacio. Muchas veces esto implica la transferencia de masa entre zonas de contaminantes móviles e inmóviles. Esto último exige modelos sofisticados de transporte que, por ejemplo, conceptualicen el medio poroso como un sistema multi-porosidad. Finalmente, la complejidad que existe en el comportamiento del foco de contaminación hace complicado un análisis de riesgo. Los líquidos tóxicos densos y no acuosos ilustran perfectamente esta complejidad. Una vez en el subsuelo, estos líquidos liberación lentamente los contaminantes dentro del acuífero de acuerdo con una tasa de agotamiento que depende fuertemente de la arquitectura errática del foco de contaminación. Los modelos de transporte reactivo eulerianos tienen problemas numéricos cuando se simulan fuertes heterogeneidades hidro-bioquímicos en el terreno al mismo tiempo que reacciones químicas complejas en sistemas multi-porosidad. En este contexto, los métodos de trayectorias de partículas constituyen una alternativa viable. Sin embargo, estos métodos pueden tener en cuenta un rango pequeño de reacciones químicas. El trabajo presentado en esta tesis propone una solución a estos problemas mediante un método de trayectoria de partículas. El método es eficiente y capaz de simular cadenas y redes de degradación en sistemas heterogéneos con porosidad múltiples. El método se basa en el desarrollo de probabilidades de transición que describen las probabilidades de que las partículas que pertenecen a un estado determinado (producto químico y región móvil / inmóvil) en un momento dado se transformará en otro estado en un momento posterior. El método se utiliza para caracterizar el riesgo para la salud humana que representan las mezclas de degradación en medios porosos altamente heterogéneos derivados de focos de contaminación complejos. En particular, se investiga la interacción entre la heterogeneidad, la conectividad, el modo de inyección de los contaminantes y su toxicidad química con respecto a la caracterización probabilística del riesgo para la salud humana. Los resultados indican las condiciones mediante las cuales las vías de flujo preferencial pueden favorecer la reducción del riesgo para la salud humana. La dependencia de la conectividad con el riego se demuestra que no es nada trivial cuando se trata de mezclas de compuestos químicos. Esta no trivialidad es el resultado de la interacción entre la heterogeneidad del acuífero y la toxicidad de los compuestos químicos. Para cuantificar el efecto conjunto de la conectividad y la toxicidad en el riesgo para la salud, se propone un número de Damköhler nuevo que tiene en cuenta la toxicidad. Además, el riesgo también se caracteriza en términos estadísticos mediante momentos de bajo orden y funciones de densidad de probabilidad. Los resultados también muestran que tanto la capacidad de degradación de zonas inmóviles como los modelos existentes de agotamiento del foco pueden desempeñar un papel muy significativo en el análisis espacio-temporal del riesgo. Este trabajo también muestra que la eficiencia del foco de contaminación para concentrar el flujo puede tener un efecto beneficioso sobre el riesgo. El riesgo total de hecho tiende a disminuir para eficiencias grandes debido a la disminución consecuente en tiempos de viaje cerca del foco de contaminación, limitando la producción de productos de degradación más tóxicos.

The Asbestos Hazard Emergency Response Act (AHERA) requires public schools to manage asbestos containing materials. Twenty five years after AHERA was enacted public schools continue to struggle with documenting and managing asbestos containing material assets. In addition, the manufacturing of lead based paint (LBP) was banned over thirty years ago yet public schools continue to have to manage LBP assets with no guidelines specific to public schools. When compared to current civil infrastructure asset management systems, AHERA and the HUD guidelines lack a rating system based on visual inspection data. The development of a condition index algorithm and risk of failure model would provide school planners an efficient management tool to predict the future condition of asbestos containing material and lead based paint assets. As a result, school planners would be able to prioritize maintenance, repair, and abatement projects based on the risk to the indoor air quality of their facilities and more efficiently utilize their limited resources to mitigate such risks. This paper presents initial work toward the development of a visual condition index algorithm and a risk of failure model to support prioritization of maintenance, repair, and abatement projects. The condition assessment categories provided by AHERA and HUD were adapted and incorporated in an evaluation form created to assist in rating the various stages of accessibility, deterioration, and detection of typical ACM and LBP building components. The evaluation form can be utilized by inspection and school personnel when reclassifying ACM and LBP components during semi-annual inspections of their facilities and also ensure the repeatability of the condition assessment and risk of failure methodologies. A risk of failure model was developed utilizing the FMEA process, specifically the calculation of a risk priority number (RPN). Three schools were selected for a field pilot study to develop the accessibility, deterioration, detection, and RPN algorithms and evaluate for repeatability. The algorithms will provide a quantitative and consistent means for documenting the condition and RPN of asbestos containing material and lead based paint assets and allow the condition of these assets to be monitored and reclassified over a period of time.
Ph. D.

This thesis uses a new institutional sociology perspective to examine financial risk management practices adopted by Saudi listed companies and identify the factors that influence these practices. In Islamic shariah law, using conventional derivatives is prohibited and so this thesis aims to determine if there is an institutional logic within the organisational field and a community of practice that results from networks of actors. The study also, examines the effect of different types of coercive, mimetic and normative isomorphic pressures on the adoption of risk management practices by Saudi listed companies. For this purpose, two pieces of empirical work are employed, (i) semi- structured interviews; and (ii) statistical tests. The interviews were held with 22 treasury managers of Saudi listed companies in 2011 to explore their perspectives of financial risk management practices. The second empirical work uses binary logistic regression to test the factors that might affect the adoption of financial risk management practices of 132 listed companies using publicly available data in 2011. Most of the previous studies relating to financial risk management practices have been undertaken in developing countries Therefore, there is a need to expand the scope of existing research by investigating such practices in Islamic countries to test the relevance of existing theory there and to enrich the risk financial management literature. This thesis investigate 12 factors: (the influence of political factors, cultural factors, and the competitive environment in Saudi society as well as nine institutional characteristics, comprising: firm size; profitability; leverage; being an Islamic company; auditor type; industrial sector; ownership structure; number of subsidiaries and exports) to identify to what extent they affect the financial risk management practices in the organisational field. The main findings indicate that Saudi listed companies hedge more interest rate risk than other financial risks, using conventional derivatives contracts which are prohibited in Islam. This finding is surprising in a country such as Saudi Arabia that is regulated and dominated by Shariah law. The political, cultural and competitive environments also affect the financial risk management practices in the organisational field. In addition, firm size in Saudi Arabia is related to interest rate risk and foreign exchange rate risk; also more leveraged companies and companies audited by Big-4 firms hedge interest rate risk. In addition, Islamic companies depend on Islamic derivatives that are available to hedge financial risk. Furthermore, the profitability of companies, industrial sector and their ownership structure has little influence on the risk management practices in Saudi listed companies. Finally, having subsidiaries and exports also affects hedging practices. It seems that actors are involved in similar networks and that considerable boundary-spanning takes place across these networks especially by treasury managers. This results in several different communities of practice with different organisational logics.

This thesis takes a new data mining approach for analyzing road/crash data by developing models for the whole road network and generating a crash risk profile. Roads with an elevated crash risk due to road surface friction deficit are identified. The regression tree model, predicting road segment crash rate, is applied in a novel deployment coined regression tree extrapolation that produces a skid resistance/crash rate curve. Using extrapolation allows the method to be applied across the network and cope with the high proportion of missing road surface friction values. This risk profiling method can be applied in other domains.

This research has led to a novel methodology for assessment and quantification of supply risks in the supply chain. The research has built on advanced Knowledge Discovery techniques and has resulted to a software implementation to be able to do so. The methodology developed and presented here resembles the well-known consumer credit scoring methods as it leads to a similar metric, or score, for assessing a supplier’s reliability and risk of conducting business with that supplier. However, the focus is on a wide range of operational metrics rather than just financial, which credit scoring techniques typically focus on. The core of the methodology comprises the application of Knowledge Discovery techniques to extract the likelihood of possible risks from within a range of available datasets. In combination with cross-impact analysis, those datasets are examined for establish the inter-relationships and mutual connections among several factors that are likely contribute to risks associated with particular suppliers. This approach is called conjugation analysis. The resulting parameters become the inputs into a logistic regression which leads to a risk scoring model the outcome of the process is the standardized risk score which is analogous to the well-known consumer risk scoring model, better known as FICO score. The proposed methodology has been applied to an Air Conditioning manufacturing company. Two models have been developed. The first identifies the supply risks based on the data about purchase orders and selected risk factors. With this model the likelihoods of delivery failures, quality failures and cost failures are obtained. The second model built on the first one but also used the actual data about the performance of supplier to identify risks of conducting business with particular suppliers. Its target was to provide quantitative measures of an individual supplier’s risk level. The supplier risk scoring model is tested on the data acquired from the company for its performance analysis. The supplier risk scoring model achieved 86.2% accuracy, while the area under curve (AUC) was 0.863. The AUC curve is much higher than required model’s validity threshold value of 0.5. It represents developed model’s validity and reliability for future data. The numerical studies conducted with real-life datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology and system as well as its future potential for industrial adoption.

Darbo uždaviniai: Apibrėžti projektų valdymą, galimas problemas apibrėžti personalo vadybos sampratą; atskleisti mokymosi šiuolaikinėje organizacijoje svarbą; ištirti apmokymų poreikį realiai egzistuojančioje Lietuvos organizacijoje; pateikti apibendrinančias išvadas. Šio darbo pagrindinis uždavinys buvo atskleisti ir išanalizuoti projektų valdymo problemas personalo vadybos aspektu.
This work „Project managment, problems, prevency soliutions“ is analizy of the training importance in the successful activity of the company and project management. It was necessary to show that increasing results of the company activity depend on human resourses management. It’s showed the need to organize training regulary. Calculated results of the questionnaire allow organizing directly the training of staff. Tha main conclution – future belongs to those companies and organizations, who organize training regularlt, especially in project management and modern technologies.

Includes abstract.~Includes bibliographical references (leaves 39-41).
The withdwal of the Maize Board in 1996 meant that farmers could no longer rely on their pre-planting price or "voorskat" for price discovery and price risk management. Some have claimed (UNCTAD, 2007) that the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) can provide these functions. We test this claim and analyse the impliacation of it.

This thesis has examined the 30km long rail corridor through the Lower Buller Gorge, on the Stillwater Ngakawau Line, between SNL96 and 126km, using a landslide risk management approach. The project area is characterised by high annual rainfall (>2,000mm per year), and steep topography (slopes typically ≥20°) adjacent to the rail corridor. The track formation generally follows the natural contour near the base of the hillslope through the Lower Buller Gorge, and consequently involves many curves but relatively limited cut slopes into adjacent rock outcrops. The distance between the base of adjacent hillslopes and rail is frequently <2m horizontally. A variety of basement and Tertiary lithologies are present, including granite, breccias, indurated sandstone/mudstone, and limestone. The primary focus of this thesis has been on upslope-sourced landsliding onto the rail corridor, and on two short lengths (20m and 450m) that currently have a 25km/hour speed restriction imposed at Whitecliffs and Te Kuha respectively. Rainfall-induced and earthquake-generated landslide triggering mechanisms were examined in detail. A landslide inventory has been compiled to determine the characteristics and distribution of identified slope failures over time, and to establish any correlation with topography and geology. Sixty individual landslide events were identified since the line became fully operational in the 1940s, based on desktop reviews, and field inspections for more recent events. To reflect the presence of small magnitude landslide events, a project-specific logarithmic classification of landslides was adopted from <10m³ (very small volume) to ≥10,000m³ (very large volume). An absence of a higher proportion of ‘very small’ to ‘small’ landslide volumes (<100m³) in the inventory reflects incomplete reporting of these comparatively lower magnitude, but higher frequency, events. The establishment of a robust landslide inventory to document future events, in a consistent and readily accessible format, is required for continued monitoring and review of landslide risk management practices in the Lower Buller Gorge. Combining landslide inventory data and physical characteristics of the project area enabled the development of a qualitative landslide zonation map that assigned ‘high’, ‘high-moderate’, ‘moderate’ and ‘low’ landslide susceptibility classes. The principal area of slope instability above the rail corridor is 22.5km in length between SNL103.5 and 126.0km, associated predominantly with basement lithologies (Tuhua Granite; Hawks Crag Breccia; Greenland Group). The most frequently occurring landslides are shallow, typically less than 3m deep, translational failures triggered in regolith or colluvium materials. Rainfall-induced debris slides and flows are dominant, given the high annual rainfall and associated high frequency of high intensity or long duration rainfall events. Very small to medium landslides (<1,000m³) have the potential to impact the rail corridor with an average frequency of around one every two years, causing damage to infrastructure or affecting rail operations. Very large landslides (≥10,000m³) can be expected every 10 to 20 years based on a limited historical record. The narrow rail corridor and absence of sufficient catch areas above or adjacent to the rail causes continual operational challenges due to upslope-sourced landslide debris, and high susceptibility to slope failures, particularly west of SNL103.50km. Development of a rainfall-threshold for proactive inspection of the rail corridor is recommended, including the establishment of a rain gauge network through the Lower Buller Gorge. Earthquake-generated landslides significantly impacted the rail during the magnitude 7.1 Inangahua earthquake in 1968 and to a much lesser extent during the magnitude 6.1 Westport earthquake in 1991. The rail was not fully constructed through the Lower Buller Gorge at the time of the magnitude 7.8 Buller (Murchison) Earthquake in 1929, which generated widespread landsliding in the Buller and Nelson regions. Earthquake-generated landsliding can be expected through the Lower Buller Gorge from earthquakes of magnitude ≥6, and track inspection is recommended in the event of magnitude 5 or greater earthquakes. Detailed geological characterisation and mapping at Whitecliffs and Te Kuha was conducted, including a LiDAR survey at Whitecliffs that enabled visualisation of the ground surface without the interference of vegetation. The limestone outcrop at Whitecliffs comprises 60-70m high near-vertical cliffs with a well-established talus apron at the base, extending to the rail corridor. Three widely spaced open fractures sets are present at the top of Whitecliffs that propagate into the cliff-face. There has been no detectable movement on selected key fracture sets since monitoring commenced in 1993 and there is no confirmed evidence of large-scale cliff collapse during the 1968 Inangahua earthquake. Whitecliffs is not as susceptible to failure as other slopes inspected in the project area due to structural controls, primarily being the dipping of strata back into the cliff-face and widely space joint sets. Establishment of inspection protocols for earthquake events impacting the area, including real-time monitoring of selected fractures at Whitecliffs is recommended. A 2km-length corridor site model produced for Te Kuha demonstrated ‘high’ landslide susceptibility is not confined to slopes above the existing 450m speed restriction zone. Removal of the speed restrictions at Whitecliffs and Te Kuha can be considered, as the increased exposure time is not considered sufficient justification given the extent of other susceptible areas to landsliding affecting the Lower Buller Gorge rail corridor. The principal conclusion from this thesis project is that there is on-going risk to rail operations predominantly from shallow translational landsliding in regolith-colluvium materials. The majority of these will be generated by long-duration or intense rainfall events. Development of threshold-based methods for effective track management is recommended, including the establishment of a rain gauge network through the Lower Buller Gorge, and landslide inventory database. Site-specific engineering measures could be adopted, such as catch benches or avalanche-type shelters, where justified on a cost-benefit basis.

It is widely acknowledged that international trade is a major pathway for the spread of invasive species. International agreements and domestic legislation aim to reach a balance between facilitating trade and providing nations with the right to protect their environmental, public and economic health. This is achieved through the development of standards that prescribe procedures that must be followed before a commodity is imported. Under Section 22 of the Biosecurity Act (1993) Biosecurity New Zealand of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) develops import health standards for the importation of commodities and sea containers and for the approval and management of transitional facilities. Under current regulations, before being allowed to enter New Zealand, a sea container must first be accompanied by appropriate documentation for the sea container itself and any contents (this includes cargo manifests, any required treatment certificates for the cargo and cleaning certificates for the sea container itself). Upon arriving in New Zealand the sea container is transported to a transitional facility for inspection and unloaded once biosecurity clearance has been obtained. There are approximately 7,000 transitional facilities (both on and off wharf) throughout New Zealand and inspections are conducted by persons that have obtained accreditation from MAF for inspections (MAF accredited persons). Based on current importation procedures and other information made available, mathematical models were developed for three sea importation pathways (sea containers, woodpackaging and used vehicles) that involved the inspection of imported units by MAF accredited persons. These models were designed to predict the effectiveness of the current border inspection policies and procedures. Inspection accuracy was found to have the most influential impact on slippage (the rate at which contamination passes through border procedures undetected) along the measured pathways. Under current conditions, an estimated 5.75% of all sea containers, 4.12% of all sea containers containing woodpackaging and 1.63% of all used vehicles that enter New Zealand annually are contaminated in some manner despite having biosecurity clearance. A 3% increase in inspection efficiency reduced slippage to 0.5% of sea containers, 2.16% of woodpackaging and 0.001% of used vehicles entering New Zealand annually. Given that the accuracy of the inspection was the most influential aspect of the border management procedures, mathematical models were develop to predict the cost of compliance recovered by MAF if all inspections were conducted by MAF inspectors as apposed to MAF accredited persons. Under current regulations the cost of compliance (if MAF inspector conducted inspections of all imported units) was estimated to be $117.36 million for sea containers, $35.16 million for woodpackaging and $5.44 million for used vehicles. Increasing the inspection accuracy to the ideal 100% increased the cost of compliance by 75.36%, 61.96% and 61.92% for sea containers, woodpackaging and used vehicles respectively. These findings indicate that Government investment in the training of inspectors throughout New Zealand would improve current border detection rates. Under current regulations, the cost incurred by MAF inspectors inspecting all imported units is recoverable. Currently the cost of compliance is approximately 1% of the value of annual imports. These costs are seen by the import sector as part of their daily business and understand that these measures are in place for the long term sustainability of their businesses (Anon. 2005).

The following thesis can be read as a socio-historical case study of the emergence of risk discourses within the Scottish Criminal Justice System, particularly in relation to offenders who are defined by their dangerousness. It focuses on the emergence of the Risk Management Authority (RMA) which was set up under recommendation of the MacLean Committee in 2000. The thesis examines the broader social and cultural forces from which the Risk Management Authority emerged by drawing on Hegel’s notion of ‘Ethical Life’ (Sittlichkeit) as a means of framing institutional change. By way of a re-interpretation of Hegel, through the lens of critical theory, it seeks to historicise and make problematic the concepts and assumptions surrounding our understanding of modernity. Through the concepts of reflexivity, legitimacy and indeterminacy it offers a critique of the existing sociology of risk, which places risk at the centre of debates on modernity, contingency and the self-understanding of society. This critique offers a conceptualisation of penal institutions as not just administering punishment, but as instrumental in the constitution of human subjectivity.

Background and problem More and more companies are now developing from only delivering a single product to now also deliver services. These transformations into servitization bring both risks and benefits to companies making the transition. The benefits of servitization is a well-defined area in the academic literature. A few identified authors describe a gap in the literature around risk management of servitization, with special emphasis on how the role of leaders is important for servitization risk management. The study is based on the problematization of how leaders handle and act when incurring the risk that may arise in the implementation of service logic. Aim The purpose of this study is to investigate how business leaders within finance, strategy, and organizational development manage the risks associated with servitization in manufacturing companies. Method and Theory The theoretical framework is based on the current academic literature on risk management and leadership. The theory is based on two essential areas, risk management strategies and leadership styles. Where it provides a basic understanding of the subject and focuses on six main strategies and three essential leadership styles to manage the risks that may arise with servitization. Our conclusions have been reached by performing a qualitative study. The data collection was conducted through nine semi-structured interviews from seven different manufacturing companies. The data has been analyzed through thematic analysis which forms the basis for the study's conclusions. Findings The findings show that the risks that are identified in the study are categorized into five types, business risk, quality and competence, short-term customer relationship, brand, and culture. The result also shows that the most commonly used leadership style is participatory and relationship-based leadership style. The main risk management strategy was focused on the risks facing the sales team at the company and managing the customer relationship. The conclusion, therefore, justifies that participation- and relationship-oriented leadership is the most prevalent leadership, where all types of risk management strategies are represented. Educational- and integrative risk management strategies are most prevalent in all three leadership styles and are used to manage the greatest risk.
Bakgrund och problemdiskussion Att övergå från att vara ett produktbaserat företag till att även erhålla tjänster har en alltmer framträdande roll i samhället. Fördelarna med tjänstefiering finns representerade i litteraturen och är ett väl omskrivet område. Vissa av litteraturens författare skriver att de finner en saknad vid riskhantering av tjänstefiering, med särskild vikt för hur ledarnas roll är betydandeför tjänstefieringens riskhantering. Studien grundas i problematiseringen kring hur ledarna hanterar och agerar vid de risker som kan att uppstå vid en implementering av tjänstelogik. Syfte Syftet med studien är att undersöka hur företagsledare med uppgifter inom ekonomi, strategi eller organisationsutveckling hanterar risk vid tjänstefiering i tillverkande företag. Metod och teori Det teoretiska ramverket utformas efter en övergripande bild av riskhantering och ledarskap. Teorin utgår ifrån två väsentliga aspekter, riskhanteringsstrategier och ledarskapsstilar. Där en grundläggande förståelse inom ämnet delges, vilken inriktar sig på sex huvudsakliga strategier och tre väsentliga ledarskapsstilar för att hantera riskerna som kan uppstå vid en tjänstefiering. Studien genomförs med ett kvalitativt tillvägagångssätt. Datainsamlingen harutförts genom nio semistrukturerade intervjuer i sju tillverkande företag. Datamaterialet haranalyserats genom tematisk analys vilket vidare ligger till grund för studiens slutsatser. Resultat Studiens resultat visar på att de risker som identifierats kan kategoriseras till fem typer, affärsrisk, kvalité och kompetens, kortsiktig kundrelation, varumärke och kultur. Resultatet påvisar även att den ledarstil som används mest är deltagande- och relationsbaserad ledarstil. Den främsta riskhanteringsstrategin framgick till att vara inriktad på de risker som säljteamet på företaget står inför samt hur kundrelationer hanteras. Slutsatsen motiveras därför till attdeltagande- och relationsorienterat ledarskap är det mest förekommande ledarskapet, där allatyper av riskhanteringsstrategier är representerade. Utbildande- och integreranderiskhanteringsstrategier är mest förekommande i alla tre ledarskapsstilar och används för att hantera de största riskerna.

В умовах глобальної пандемії формування системи ризик-менеджменту відіграє все більш важливу роль з метою зниження та запобігання майбутніх ризиків. Основні роботи зарубіжних та українських вчених стосуються розробки ефективних інструментів управління ризиками в умовах глобальних криз.
В условиях глобальной пандемии формирование системы управления рисками играет все более важную роль для снижения и предотвращения будущих рисков. Основные работы зарубежных и украинских ученых касаются разработки эффективных инструментов управления рисками в условиях глобальных кризисов.
In the context of the global pandemic, the formation of a risk management system plays an increasingly important role in order to reduce and prevent future risks. The main works of foreign and Ukrainian scientists relate to the development of effective tools for risk management in global crises.

O uso indiscriminado de agrotóxicos na agricultura brasileira e suas conseqüências sobre os aspectos ambientais e de saúde pública deram início a uma ampla campanha conduzida por agrônomos, extensionistas, ambientalistas e produtores rurais, visando a criação de mecanismos de controle do uso desses insumos químicos. Um dos caminhos construídos no Brasil para a gestão dos agrotóxicos foi o estabelecimento, através de legislação específica, da prescrição técnica obrigatória, a partir da participação de um profissional habilitado (engenheiro agrônomo ou florestal), como requisito para a comercialização dos agrotóxicos. O presente estudo visa discutir a situação atual de aplicação e uso do receituário agronômico, comparando os princípios que fundamentaram no passado a construção desse instrumento de gestão, com o quadro atual de utilização dessa prática. A parte inicial deste estudo apresenta um panorama geral sobre o uso de agrotóxicos. Em seguida, buscou-se investigar e discutir os fatores de origem da adoção do receituário agronômico, a partir do desenho de um quadro histórico do processo de proposição e adoção desse instituto. O passo seguinte foi dedicado a investigar as influências do processo de institucionalização do receituário agronômico e as distorções ocorridas em relação aos preceitos iniciais da proposta. Buscou-se também registrar subsídios sobre o atual contexto de aplicação e aplicabilidade do receituário agronômico.
The unrestricted use of pesticides in Brazilian agriculture and its impact in environmental and public health aspects, motivated a broad range of initiatives conducted by agronomists, professionals of rural extension services, environmentalists and farmers, with the objective of creating new mechanisms of pesticides control. One of the ways built in Brazil for the management of pesticides was the establishment, through a specific legislation, of the mandatory technical prescription, written by a qualified professional (agronomist or forest engineer), as a requirement to pesticides commercialization. The aim of this study is to discuss the status of agronomic prescription use, comparing the principles that supported the construction of this management tool in the past with the adoption of this practice nowadays. The initial part of this study presents a general panorama on the use of pesticides in the agriculture. Soon afterwards, it was looked for to investigate and to discuss the factors of origin of the adoption of the agronomics prescriptions, starting from the drawing of a historical picture of the proposition process and adoption of that institute. The following step was dedicated to the investigation on the influences of the process of adoption of the technical prescription and the distortions happened in relation to the initial precepts of the proposal. It was also looked for to register subsidies on the current application context and applicability of the agronomics prescriptions.

The thesis start from general introduction to globalization but its focus is on the following areas: global buying of company inputs (sourcing), expanding on the foreign/global markets (output) and managing the risks associated with globalization (increased competition, foreign currency and raw material/inputs hedge). Overall the thesis is practical in its approach and thus it provides the real applicable approaches in terms of the management in the global economy. Despite these practicalities the thesis also aims at analyzing the more general business environment for global activities of a firm. This is realized in section on economic assessment of the market and evaluation of foreign currency fundamentals.

The thesis start from general introduction to globalization but its focus is on the following areas: global buying of company inputs (sourcing), expanding on the foreign/global markets (output) and managing the risks associated with globalization (increased competition, foreign currency and raw material/inputs hedge). Overall the thesis is practical in its approach and thus it provides the real applicable approaches in terms of the management in the global economy. Despite these practicalities the thesis also aims at analyzing the more general business environment for global activities of a firm. This is realized in section on economic assessment of the market and evaluation of foreign currency fundamentals.

Cette thèse contribue à la recherché académique en immobilier en fournissant une estimation du risque pour la gestion d'investissement en immobilier commercial. L'investissement immobilier compte de nombreuses particularités parmi lesquelles la localisation, la liquidité, la taille d'investissement ou l'obsolescence et requiert une gestion active. Ces spécificités rendent les approches traditionnelles de mesure du risque difficile à appliquer. Ce travail de recherche se présente sous la forme de quatre articles académiques traitant de la gestion de portefeuille et du risque en immobilier. Ce travail est construit sur la littérature académique existante et repose les publications antérieures. Il s'attache d'abord à analyser les options de départ des locataires contenues dans les baux commerciaux en Europe continental et en étudie les impacts sur la valeur, la gestion et le risque des portefeuilles. Ensuite, la thèse étudie l'évaluation d'un outil de mesure du risque en finance, la Value at Risk au travers de deux approches novatrices.Dans le premier article, nous prenons en considérations les options de départ inclus dans les baux en Europe continental pour mieux apprécier la valeur et risque d'un portefeuille de biens immobiliers. Ceci est obtenu par l'utilisation simultanée de simulations de Monte-Carlo et de la théorie des options. Le second article traite de la durée de détention optimale d'un portefeuille immobilier lorsque sont pris en compte les options contenues dans les baux. Le troisième article s'intéresse à la Value at Risk et propose un modèle qui tient compte de la non-normalité des rendements en immobilier. Ceci est obtenu par la combinaison de l'utilisation du développement de Cornish-Fisher et de procédures de réarrangement. Enfin dans un dernier article, nous présentons un modèle spécialement développé pour le calcul de Value at Risk en immobilier. Ce modèle a la particularité de prendre en compte les spécificités de l'immobilier et les paramètres qui ont une plus grande influence sur la valeur des actifs.

У дисертаційній роботі обґрунтовані теоретичні основи, розроблені науково-методичні підходи та надані практичні рекомендацій щодо здійснення інвестиційно-орієнтованої діяльності банків на ринку цінних паперів. У роботі сформульовано авторське визначення поняття «інвестиційно-орієнтована діяльність банків на ринку цінних паперів»; визначено особливості структури віт-чизняного ринку цінних паперів, виокремлено видовий склад операцій банків на ринку цінних паперів; визначено основні та додаткові етапи управління портфелем цінних паперів банку, розроблено процедуру формування стратегії хеджування фінансових ризиків при реалізації інвестиційно-орієнтованої діяльності банку на ринку цінних паперів. Результати дисертаційного дослідження дозволили визначити основні тенденції зміни узагальнюючих показників діяльності банків на ринку цінних паперів; провести аналіз впливу факторів на процес інвестиційно-орієнтованої діяльності банківського сектора; здійснити оцінку ре-зультативності реалізації інвестиційно-орієнтованої діяльності вітчизняних банків. У дисертації визначено методичні основи впровадження оптимізаційного мене-джменту при формуванні портфеля цінних паперів банку; визначено доцільність реалізації інвестиційно-орієнтованої діяльності на ринку цінних паперів; розроблено процедуру визначення доцільності здійснення інвестиційно-орієнтованої діяльності банків з урахуванням фінансових аспектів її проведення.
The theory of investment-oriented activity of banks on the stock market was proved in the thesis. The methodological approaches and practical guidelines of this activity were also described. The definition of author’s notion «investment -oriented activity of banks on the stock market» was stated; the features of the stock market structure were defined; the classificatory structure of bank operations on the stock market was singled out; the main and supplementary stages of securities portfolio management were described; the procedure of financial risks hedging strategy when implementing the investment-oriented bank activity on the stock market was developed. The results of the research make it possible to define the basic tendency of overall indices of banks’ activity on the stock market; to analyze the influence of fa ctors on the process of investment -oriented activity of banking sector; to estimate the effectiveness of implementation of investment-oriented activity of domestic banks. The methodological theory of optimization management implementation when forming bank securities portfolio was defined; the practicability of investment -oriented activity implementation on the stock market was described; the procedure of defining the practicability of investment-oriented activity of banks and the financial aspects of its implementation was worked out

Questa tesi è stata svolta presso Cefla, un’azienda di Imola nata nel 1932 che negli anni si è diversificata ed espansa integrando nuove Business Unit tra cui la Medical Equipment. L’obbiettivo del lavoro è stato quello di migliorare il flusso di progettazione di un dispositivo medico attraverso l’inserimento dei dati di progetto in due software in grado di comunicare tra loro. Tramite l’integrazione dei software Jira e TestRail è stato possibile realizzare un sistema di Design Control che permettesse la tracciatura di tutto il percorso che segue lo sviluppo dei vari progetti. La prima parte del lavoro di tesi ha richiesto una fase di studio del Design Control e dei metodi per l’individuazione di User Needs, Design Input e tutti i documenti a cascata come Design Output e valutazione dei rischi per passare poi al caso specifico della sterilizzazione. Il software proposto dall’azienda per lo sviluppo del Design control è Jira grazie al quale è stato possibile riunire in modo gerarchico gli User Needs e i relativi Design Input scendendo sempre di più nel dettaglio di progettazione fino ad arrivare a dati di progettazione veri e propri. La fase di test dei vari Design Input e il relativo rilascio del Design Output è stato gestito su un secondo software chiamato TestRail che permette di scrivere test, risultati e di allegare i documenti di output derivanti dal test; inoltre è stato possibile collegare il singolo test ed i suoi risultati con i singoli Design Input in Jira in modo da avere un sistema di tracciatura ed analisi completo ed efficace. Sul Software Jira è implementato anche un plug-in proprietario che permette di inserire i dati di analisi del rischio e di vederne l’evoluzione. Il risultato finale del lavoro è un sistema di Design control e tracciatura delle fasi di progetto quasi completo per quanto riguarda il progetto di autoclavi e funzionale per tutti i tipi di progetto ed attualmente attivo all’interno dell’azienda.

In the last 50 years, flooding has figured as the most frequent and widespread natural disaster globally. Extreme precipitation events stemming from climate change could alter the hydro-geological regime resulting in increased flood risk. Near real-time precipitation monitoring at local scale is essential for flood risk mitigation in urban and suburban areas, due to their high vulnerability. Presently, most of the rainfall data is obtained from ground‐based measurements or remote sensing that provide limited information in terms of temporal or spatial resolution. Other problems may be due to the high costs. Furthermore, rain gauges are unevenly spread and usually placed away from urban centers. In this context, a big potential is represented by the use of innovative techniques to develop low-cost monitoring systems. Despite the diversity of purposes, methods and epistemological fields, the literature on the visual effects of the rain supports the idea of camera-based rain sensors but tends to be device-specific. The present thesis aims to investigate the use of easily available photographing devices as rain detectors-gauges to develop a dense network of low-cost rainfall sensors to support the traditional methods with an expeditious solution embeddable into smart devices. As opposed to existing works, the study focuses on maximizing the number of image sources (like smartphones, general-purpose surveillance cameras, dashboard cameras, webcams, digital cameras, etc.). This encompasses cases where it is not possible to adjust the camera parameters or obtain shots in timelines or videos. Using a Deep Learning approach, the rainfall characterization can be achieved through the analysis of the perceptual aspects that determine whether and how a photograph represents a rainy condition. The first scenario of interest for the supervised learning was a binary classification; the binary output (presence or absence of rain) allows the detection of the presence of precipitation: the cameras act as rain detectors. Similarly, the second scenario of interest was a multi-class classification; the multi-class output described a range of quasi-instantaneous rainfall intensity: the cameras act as rain estimators. Using Transfer Learning with Convolutional Neural Networks, the developed models were compiled, trained, validated, and tested. The preparation of the classifiers included the preparation of a suitable dataset encompassing unconstrained verisimilar settings: open data, several data owned by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention - NIED (dashboard cameras in Japan coupled with high precision multi-parameter radar data), and experimental activities conducted in the NIED Large Scale Rainfall Simulator. The outcomes were applied to a real-world scenario, with the experimentation through a pre-existent surveillance camera using 5G connectivity provided by Telecom Italia S.p.A. in the city of Matera (Italy). Analysis unfolded on several levels providing an overview of generic issues relating to the urban flood risk paradigm and specific territorial questions inherent with the case study. These include the context aspects, the important role of rainfall from driving the millennial urban evolution to determining present criticality, and components of a Web prototype for flood risk communication at local scale. The results and the model deployment raise the possibility that low‐cost technologies and local capacities can help to retrieve rainfall information for flood early warning systems based on the identification of a significant meteorological state. The binary model reached accuracy and F1 score values of 85.28% and 0.86 for the test, and 83.35% and 0.82 for the deployment. The multi-class model reached test average accuracy and macro-averaged F1 score values of 77.71% and 0.73 for the 6-way classifier, and 78.05% and 0.81 for the 5-class. The best performances were obtained in heavy rainfall and no-rain conditions, whereas the mispredictions are related to less severe precipitation. The proposed method has limited operational requirements, can be easily and quickly implemented in real use cases, exploiting pre-existent devices with a parsimonious use of economic and computational resources. The classification can be performed on single photographs taken in disparate conditions by commonly used acquisition devices, i.e. by static or moving cameras without adjusted parameters. This approach is especially useful in urban areas where measurement methods such as rain gauges encounter installation difficulties or operational limitations or in contexts where there is no availability of remote sensing data. The system does not suit scenes that are also misleading for human visual perception. The approximations inherent in the output are acknowledged. Additional data may be gathered to address gaps that are apparent and improve the accuracy of the precipitation intensity prediction. Future research might explore the integration with further experiments and crowdsourced data, to promote communication, participation, and dialogue among stakeholders and to increase public awareness, emergency response, and civic engagement through the smart community idea.
Negli ultimi 50 anni, le alluvioni si sono confermate come il disastro naturale più frequente e diffuso a livello globale. Tra gli impatti degli eventi meteorologici estremi, conseguenti ai cambiamenti climatici, rientrano le alterazioni del regime idrogeologico con conseguente incremento del rischio alluvionale. Il monitoraggio delle precipitazioni in tempo quasi reale su scala locale è essenziale per la mitigazione del rischio di alluvione in ambito urbano e periurbano, aree connotate da un'elevata vulnerabilità. Attualmente, la maggior parte dei dati sulle precipitazioni è ottenuta da misurazioni a terra o telerilevamento che forniscono informazioni limitate in termini di risoluzione temporale o spaziale. Ulteriori problemi possono derivare dagli elevati costi. Inoltre i pluviometri sono distribuiti in modo non uniforme e spesso posizionati piuttosto lontano dai centri urbani, comportando criticità e discontinuità nel monitoraggio. In questo contesto, un grande potenziale è rappresentato dall'utilizzo di tecniche innovative per sviluppare sistemi inediti di monitoraggio a basso costo. Nonostante la diversità di scopi, metodi e campi epistemologici, la letteratura sugli effetti visivi della pioggia supporta l'idea di sensori di pioggia basati su telecamera, ma tende ad essere specifica per dispositivo scelto. La presente tesi punta a indagare l'uso di dispositivi fotografici facilmente reperibili come rilevatori-misuratori di pioggia, per sviluppare una fitta rete di sensori a basso costo a supporto dei metodi tradizionali con una soluzione rapida incorporabile in dispositivi intelligenti. A differenza dei lavori esistenti, lo studio si concentra sulla massimizzazione del numero di fonti di immagini (smartphone, telecamere di sorveglianza generiche, telecamere da cruscotto, webcam, telecamere digitali, ecc.). Ciò comprende casi in cui non sia possibile regolare i parametri fotografici o ottenere scatti in timeline o video. Utilizzando un approccio di Deep Learning, la caratterizzazione delle precipitazioni può essere ottenuta attraverso l'analisi degli aspetti percettivi che determinano se e come una fotografia rappresenti una condizione di pioggia. Il primo scenario di interesse per l'apprendimento supervisionato è una classificazione binaria; l'output binario (presenza o assenza di pioggia) consente la rilevazione della presenza di precipitazione: gli apparecchi fotografici fungono da rivelatori di pioggia. Analogamente, il secondo scenario di interesse è una classificazione multi-classe; l'output multi-classe descrive un intervallo di intensità delle precipitazioni quasi istantanee: le fotocamere fungono da misuratori di pioggia. Utilizzando tecniche di Transfer Learning con reti neurali convoluzionali, i modelli sviluppati sono stati compilati, addestrati, convalidati e testati. La preparazione dei classificatori ha incluso la preparazione di un set di dati adeguato con impostazioni verosimili e non vincolate: dati aperti, diversi dati di proprietà del National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention - NIED (telecamere dashboard in Giappone accoppiate con dati radar multiparametrici ad alta precisione) e attività sperimentali condotte nel simulatore di pioggia su larga scala del NIED. I risultati sono stati applicati a uno scenario reale, con la sperimentazione attraverso una telecamera di sorveglianza preesistente che utilizza la connettività 5G fornita da Telecom Italia S.p.A. nella città di Matera (Italia). L'analisi si è svolta su più livelli, fornendo una panoramica sulle questioni relative al paradigma del rischio di alluvione in ambito urbano e questioni territoriali specifiche inerenti al caso di studio. Queste ultime includono diversi aspetti del contesto, l'importante ruolo delle piogge dal guidare l'evoluzione millenaria della morfologia urbana alla determinazione delle criticità attuali, oltre ad alcune componenti di un prototipo Web per la comunicazione del rischio alluvionale su scala locale. I risultati ottenuti e l'implementazione del modello corroborano la possibilità che le tecnologie a basso costo e le capacità locali possano aiutare a caratterizzare la forzante pluviometrica a supporto dei sistemi di allerta precoce basati sull'identificazione di uno stato meteorologico significativo. Il modello binario ha raggiunto un'accuratezza e un F1-score di 85,28% e 0,86 per il set di test e di 83,35% e 0,82 per l'implementazione nel caso di studio. Il modello multi-classe ha raggiunto un'accuratezza media e F1-score medio (macro-average) di 77,71% e 0,73 per il classificatore a 6 vie e 78,05% e 0,81 per quello a 5 classi. Le prestazioni migliori sono state ottenute nelle classi relative a forti precipitazioni e assenza di pioggia, mentre le previsioni errate sono legate a precipitazioni meno estreme. Il metodo proposto richiede requisiti operativi limitati, può essere implementato facilmente e rapidamente in casi d'uso reali, sfruttando dispositivi preesistenti con un uso parsimonioso di risorse economiche e computazionali. La classificazione può essere eseguita su singole fotografie scattate in condizioni disparate da dispositivi di acquisizione di uso comune, ovvero da telecamere statiche o in movimento senza regolazione dei parametri. Questo approccio potrebbe essere particolarmente utile nelle aree urbane in cui i metodi di misurazione come i pluviometri incontrano difficoltà di installazione o limitazioni operative o in contesti in cui non sono disponibili dati di telerilevamento o radar. Il sistema non si adatta a scene che sono fuorvianti anche per la percezione visiva umana. I limiti attuali risiedono nelle approssimazioni intrinseche negli output. Per colmare le lacune evidenti e migliorare l'accuratezza della previsione dell'intensità di precipitazione, sarebbe possibile un'ulteriore raccolta di dati. Sviluppi futuri potrebbero riguardare l'integrazione con ulteriori esperimenti in campo e dati da crowdsourcing, per promuovere comunicazione, partecipazione e dialogo aumentando la resilienza attraverso consapevolezza pubblica e impegno civico in una concezione di comunità smart.

博士
國立中央大學
土木工程研究所
95
Due to its unique environmental characteristics and ever-changing climate, Taiwan abounds with natural travel resources. Nevertheless, those same traits have been the main cause for the constant natural disasters that have been the difficulty of Taiwan. Recently the government has been actively promoting the “2008 – Challenge: Key Plans for National Development–Increasing tourism” and “Finding distinctive feature for each Township” etc. to encourage the development of the tourism industry. As expected, construction in the tourism industry is mainly focused in traditional landscape and slope land areas; yet, these same areas are most prone to natural disaster if lacking the most basic infrastructure for disaster remediation measures. Therefore, ensuring the development of the tourism industry along with the necessary disaster prevention measures is the current focal point of government plans. This study investigates the characteristics of disaster events, and, from the perspective of risk management, analyses possible disaster prevention measures that can be implemented by the tourism industry. The study concentrates practical risk analysis and recommendations of the disaster management for the tourism industry in Hualien, an area that has recently undergone a series of natural disaster events. The goals of this study include: (1)Generating a natural disaster risk assessment model of the tourism industry (2)Giving strong and specific strategies on practical disaster prevention measures that can be adopted by the tourism industry. Our goal is to facilitate the tourism industry in disaster preparation and prevention, so that once disaster hits, the necessary measures can be implemented to minimize loss of life and property, and to return to full operating capacity as quickly as possible. This assessment tool can be a useful reference for government, agencies, none-life insurance and disaster reduction policies for the tourism industry.

碩士
國立成功大學
建築(工程)學系
86
There are multiple objects in the developing projects of shopping centers. The relations and limits of these objects are complicated, including land developers'' economical objects, the government policy, different land use, needs of many space types. The underlining qualification and multiple objects affect each other, and .are limited by factors of essence, economy, social environment and law. With the plan used now, there is no way to solve the problems mentioned above. If one of the essential factors has been changed, all the relations would be different. This thesis is a systematic analysis of the underlining qualification about real estate in the eyes of a risky manager, and tries to build the administration frame of running a shopping center.First of all, to analyze the problems and risks of running a shopping center from its development history in America and Japan. Then, to find out the frame of risky administration of shopping center development by analyzing hidden risks of some individual case. It''s not a brief contemplation to expand management level to the way of company works, and the range of life cycle. To make sure the relations between these aspects listed in this thesis. The final abject is to build a good administration frame in real estate and provide a complete thinking style. I hope this thesis could clear up the objects of risky administration, lower the risks in investment, and raise the development standard of shopping centers.

碩士
中州科技大學
機械與自動化工程系
102
A fire emergency in kindergarten building usually causes more serious loss of lives and property damage than others. And the aim of this study was to raise awareness and prevention of fire; furthermore, building managers and personnel can be well-prepared for a fire emergency. As a result, to increase the level of fire safety management and the effective control of extinguishing fires for kindergarten builings is highly significant. In this study, a total of 217 questionnaires were issued. We selected administrators of kindergarten building, fire prevent managers and personnel as samples of this research. 217 questionnaires were sent out; 203 completed questionnaires were received and 195 valid questionnaires; and the return rate is 89.8%. According to the research, the results are as the followings, 1. The variance analysis between the background of fire safety equipment personnel and human factors is partially verified. 2. The variance analysis between the background of fire safety equipment personnel and technical factors is partially verified. 3. The variance analysis between the background of fire safety equipment personnel and public factors is partially verified. 4. The variance analysis between the background of fire safety equipment personnel and human factor, technical factors and public factors is partially verified.

A research report submitted to the School of Mechanical, Industrial & Aeronautical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering, 2015
Supply chain risk management is one of the strategies that assist enterprises in the identification, assessment and control of supply chain risks. With the increased dynamics and complexity of supply chain risks for small and medium enterprises, an innovative approach in analysing these risks is required. The purpose of this research is to assess supply chain risk management in five small and medium enterprise cases using soft systems methodology. The systems thinking approach will assist in the analysis of the dynamics and complexity of supply chain risks for small and medium enterprises. A qualitative approach was utilised to obtain insight into current issues that small and medium enterprises, in the manufacturing sector, face within the supply chain. The results of the application of soft systems methodology on small and medium enterprises for obtaining insight into supply chain risk management for these enterprises proved to be fruitful. The replication logic used in each case, lead to similar results as expected.

ο σκοπός της εργασίας συνίσταται σε μια προσπάθεια ανάδειξης του σημαντικότατου προβλήματος της βιωσιμότητας και της συνέχισης της συνταξιοδοτικής λειτουργίας των ασφαλιστικών ταμείων-οργανισμών σε σχέση με την διαχείριση (επένδυση) των assets τους μέσα από μία πρωτοποριακή θεωρία. Ταυτόχρονα συνδέεται το πρόβλημα αυτό με τις έννοιες της εταιρικής διακυβέρνησης ,εταιρικού ελέγχου, της θεωρίας συμβολαίων και την εφαρμογή τους στα pension funds .Επιχειρείται η παρουσίαση της σχετικά άγνωστης έννοιας της διαχείρισης κινδύνου αρχικά σφαιρικά και έπειτα από οικονομική πλευρά . Το μεγαλύτερο τμήμα της εργασίας αναλώνεται στη παρουσίαση της θεωρίας του καθηγητή R.J.Shiller για ένα νέο είδος αγορών που προτείνεται σαν μία επενδυτική λύση για ατομικούς επενδυτές και για ασφαλιστικά ταμεία . Η διπλωματική αυτή εργασία χωρίζεται σε 3 μέρη: Στο πρώτο μέρος παρουσιάζεται η έννοια , ο σκοπός των ασφαλιστικών ταμείων πως διακρίνονται, η ιστορική τους πορεία και το πρόβλημα που έχει δημιουργηθεί. Γίνεται επιπλέον μία αναφορά στα επίκαιρα ομόλογα. Στο δεύτερο κομμάτι μέσω παραδειγμάτων γίνεται κατανοητή η έννοια αρχικά του κινδύνου και της διαχείρισης κινδύνου στην οικονομία και την κοινωνία Στη τρίτο μέρος εξετάζεται η θεωρία του R.J.Shiller για τις macromarkets.
The aim of this work is recommended to find and show the most important problem of viability and continuation of retirement operation of actuarial funds-organisms concerning their assets management (investment) through a pioneering theory. Simultaneously connected this problem with the significances of corporate governing, corporate control, theory of contracts and their application in pension funds is attempted the presentation of the unknown theory of risk management initially in society and then from economic view. The bigger department of work is spent in the presentation of theory of professor R.J.Shiller about the beginning of a new market that is proposed as an investment solution for individual investors and for actuarial funds. This diplomatic work is separated in 3 parts: In the first part is presented the significance, the aim of actuarial funds that they are distinguished, their historical course and the problem that has been created. Also there is a small report for the bonds generally (2008). In the second piece via examples become comprehensible the significance of initially the risk management and the management of danger in the economy and the society In the third part is examined the theory of R.J.Shiller for macromarkets.