Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risks in tourism'

There has been much research on the physical barriers that those with disabilities experience. This research investigates the level of participation of disabled people in tourism and explores the perceptions of risks and barriers to participation in tourism for people with a disability. The barriers that were explored included information, economic, social, physical barriers and the perceptions of risks these barriers cause, within the concept of the 'Social Model‘ of disability (Shaw and Coles, 2004). Data was gathered from a sample group of 149 disabled people through an online survey and through face-to-face survey using paper questionnaires. Analysis of the questionnaire results showed that although the participation of disabled people in tourism has increased slightly, the estimated gap in participation in tourism between non-disabled tourists and the general population has actually increased in the previous eight years. Furthermore, the main barrier to participation in tourism was the lack of availability of sufficiently detailed information. This study found that other barriers to participation includes low level of income, increased price differentials and negative attitudes to disability in some cultures. This study discovered that a significant number of disabled people would prefer that existing tourist opportunities were made more accessible rather than specialised tours for tourists with a similar disability to theirs. All these barriers contribute to perceptions of risks. However, despite the feeling of not having a lot of control of risk, most respondents will sometimes overlook the risk involved in travel. This study has implications for travel agents and tour operators, who need to cater more for the heterogeneous needs of disabled customers and provide more information that is specific, personalised, easily accessible and readily available. To counteract social barriers, further training is required within the tourist industry focusing on the impact of 'cognitive dissonance‘ (discomfort in relating to the disabled results in avoiding getting into the position of the discomfort) on disabled tourists.

With increasing trust and utilization of the Internet, the sharing economy is emerging in the tourism and hospitality marketplace. This study focused on tourist non-purchase intention to use peer-to-peer accommodation. To explore the non-purchase intention, the relationship between perceived risk and tourist non-purchase intention to use peer-to-peer accommodation, as well as the relationship between impeding factors and perceived risk were tested. The study employed survey data (N = 280) gathered from active adult U.S travelers who have never used peer-to-peer accommodation before and have no intention to use peer-to-peer accommodation in future. The results showed that six impeding factors (i.e., lack of trust, perceived cognitive effort, perceived cost, perceived safety and security, perceived service quality, perceived cleanliness) had significant effects on tourists’ perceived risks. Two perceived risks (i.e., Performance Risk, Psychological Risk) had significant effects on tourist non-purchase intention. Based on the results. both academic and practical implications are provided.

In addition to a global endurance test for the health system, the Corona pandemic triggered a tremendous social and economic crisis. Health professionals as well as politicians and business managers have to make decisions with considerable consequences under great time pressure. In this context, numerous international organizations - including Transparency International, GRECO and IACA - point out that the Corona crisis can be a breeding ground not only for conflicts of interest, but also for corruption. Even though quick decisions have to be made at present, it is clear that the strict prohibitions on corruption must be fully observed also in times of the Corona crisis. In order to avoid violations from the outset, existing compliance systems should continuously be updated and adapted to the current situation. This article begins with a description of possible forms of corruption in the health care sector that are particularly relevant in the current times of crisis. Finally, the article offers ideas for updates on the company's internal healthcare compliance system with regard to anti-corruption.

The diploma thesis deals with a proposal to build and operate a tourist resort in Croatia. The theoretical part explains all the important concepts and analyses, which are subsequently used in the analytical part. The empirical part also contains an analysis of the current state of the business entity and the situation on the Croatian market. Financial plan and potential risks are defined at the end of the thesis.

The Chinese stock market has experienced tremendous growth and development over the past years. It is now the second largest stock market in Asia (after Japan). The increasing numbers of stock investors and the generally upward trend of the local stock indexes transform the Chinese stock market into one of the most actively traded stock market. This study examined the “pricing errors” of the Chinese stock market. The intrinsic values of equities, which can be compared to actual index prices, were estimated using the dividend discount model. Using a database of daily dividend based index prices of Shanghai composite index 180 and Shenzhen composite index 100 from July 2002 to June 2005, our study shows the stocks were undervalued during the sample period, on average, by approximately 0.09% and 1% for Shanghai and Shenzhen composite indexes respectively. The result reveals during July 2002- June 2005, the Chinese stock markets were close to the real value. Another objective of this study is to examine the impact of the economic conditions on the “pricing errors” of Chinese stock market. We find that the Chinese stock markets are much price momentum driven. The relationships of the economic factors and the deviation between the estimated cost of equity (based on CAPM) and the implied cost of equity (based on the actual index prices) showed similar results. We conclude that the Chinese stock markets do not sufficiently reveal local economic conditions.

Parler de développement touristique, c'est aussi parler de santé environnementale, de stabilité sociopolitique et par conséquent de développement durable. C'est pourquoi, la liaison entre tourisme et développement durable devient une évidence. Mais cette relation n'a de valeur que lorsqu'elle tient compte de la dimension holistique même du concept de durabilité qui nécessite en priorité l'appréhension des notions de risque et d'urgence : d'où, les enjeux de l'information et de la communication dans la détection et la prévention des aléas.L'universalité des sciences et de la technologie doit permettre à toutes les nations, à travers un usage adéquat, des possibilités d'ouverture et d'apprentissage qui sont porteurs d'une croissance durable. C'est pourquoi, les transformations considérables que peuvent apporter dans la vie sociale et économique l'idéologie des SIC et les techniques de communication doivent donner lieu à un examen critique des possibilités qu'elles sont susceptibles d'engendrer dans les pays du Sud. Cependant, la question est de savoir si l'ensemble des moyens de communication avec les pressions inévitables qui les accompagnent, pourront servir à développer une image positive de ces pays qui, à l'instar du Sénégal, cherchent à travers l'écotourisme un moyen d'affirmation, politique, socioéconomique et culturelle. De toute évidence, nous savons que les médias et les techniques de l'information en général sont des outils à double tranchant : ce qui prête à réfléchir sur les enjeux du traitement de l'information et de l'appréhension des notions de risque par les institutions publiques, les touristes, les voyagistes, les populations et surtout les médias des pays émetteurs et de destination.. L'actualité des risques inhérents au tourisme et l'ampleur des frayeurs qu'ils continuent de susciter, vis-à-vis du continent africain - " destination à risque " - nous obligent à envisager cette étude afin de contribuer à l'identification de ces risques, au traitement de l'information liée aux aléas et à leur prévention.

When major incidents occur, whether in the form of natural disasters (for example, Tsunamis, hurricanes) or man-made incidents (such as acts of terrorism or war), there is an impact on travel flows and patterns. These impacts can be in the form of the volume of tourists that flow to a particular area, the characteristics of those tourists and/or the expenditure they make whilst there. The time required for destinations to recover from such incidents and the loss of tourism receipts depends upon a variety of factors such as the nature of the incident, the response of the destination to the incident and the impact that such events have on the travel risk perceptions of tourists. The purpose of this research is to examine the nature,magnitude and direct impacts of a selection of incidents and the time recovery period. Case studies of high profile events such as those that occurred in Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Spain, the UK and the USA have been selected because of the relative importance of the events and, to include a broad range of destination types. The incidents that have occurred will be examined through secondary data drawing heavily on related journal articles and the analyses of data that are published by the UNWTO, the World Bank and the relevant national governments. The literature analyses will look at the research that academics have undertaken when looking at specific incidents that occurred in the case study areas and in terms of their effects on tourism in general and to the areas involved. Data from published statistics will be used to examine tourist arrival trends prior to the incidents, immediately following. the incidents and the time period needed for the level of tourism activity to be restored to where it was likely to have been if the incident had not happened. Although the incidents are examined as individual case studies the analyses will also take a chronological approach to examine whether the impacts of major incidents diminishes with exposure to such events. That is, did the earlier terrorist attacks have a greater impact because of their novelty and therefore enhanced shock effect compared with later events even though the latter may have been of greater magnitude? The secondary analyses will also examine aspects such as whether there is a difference in impact if the incidents are specifically targeted at tourists in general rather than tourists of a particular nationality. Whenever events occur they may influence the perception of travellers in terms of the potential risks they face, related risks and how they may impact on the travel decisions of tourists, particularly non-business or discretionary tourists. There is a variety of risks that may influence the travel decisions of tourists including those relating to physical harm, financial loss and also the risk of dissatisfaction from their travel experience. The different types of risks that may influence travel decisions will be examined together with demographic characteristics of the travellers in order to explore whether there are differences in risk averseness between travellers from different countries of origin, age groups, gender, education and occupation. This aspect of the analysis will be driven by primary data analysis in the form of a questionnaire (physical and on-line) that uses both quantitative and qualitative instruments to determine travellers' travel-related risk perceptions and identify regions and countries that are felt to be high risk destinations by type of risk. The perceived risks will also be compared with actual risks as identified by insurance company claims data. Although limited in scope, this aspect of analysis will seek to identify whether travel-related risk perceptions mirror actual risks or whether they are driven by other factors such as media coverage of events. Using the man-made risks as the identifier, the regional aspects of travel-related risk will then be focused to one region of the planet in particular. This region is the Middle East plus some selected countries that share the same issues in relation to tourism development. Countries in this area have been beset by man-made incidents that have deterred the development of tourism in spite of the attractiveness of the region in terms of climate, heritage and culture. A comparative analysis is undertaken to look for commonalities and factors that explain the lack of tourism development in some countries. Using the findings from the secondary and primary data analyses the potential future of the region in general and Iran in particular will be examined using the Delphi technique by drawing upon the collective wisdom of some experts in tourism who have an understanding of tourism development in difficult political areas. Finally the research will attempt to pull all of these strands together to see if there are any identifiable guidelines that may help our understanding of travel related risks and whether there are any lessons that can be learned to inform the policy makers in troubled areas.

Para que um evento assuma sua responsabilidade ambiental, é preciso que o mesmo contabilize a variável ambiental em todas as fases de seu planejamento. A presente investigação propõe-se a examinar as relações estabelecidas entre a variável ambiental e um evento turístico. Assim, o problema de pesquisa decorre da seguinte indagação: a variável ambiental é considerada no planejamento da Festa Nacional da Uva 2006? Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste estudo é identificar a consideração da variável ambiental no planejamento da Festa Nacional da Uva 2006, realizada na cidade de Caxias do Sul, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Aliados ao objetivo geral, destacam-se os seguintes objetivos específicos: a) verificar as relações estabelecidas entre a informação ambiental e o planejamento da Festa da Uva; b) identificar as condições de manejo dos resíduos sólidos gerados na Festa da Uva; c) examinar o princípio da prevenção da geração de resíduos sólidos no planejamento da Festa da Uva; d) identificar ações de educação ambiental no planejamento da Festa da Uva; e) examinar as variáveis água, energia elétrica e água residuária no planejamento da Festa da Uva; f) verificar a consideração do critério ambiental na escolha dos patrocinadores e expositores da Festa da Uva. Para atender aos objetivos propostos, foram realizadas observações diretas no âmbito da Festa da Uva, em dois momentos distintos. Também foram entrevistados 19 sujeitos, os quais correspondem ao presidente, aos vicespresidentes e aos diretores das comissões organizadoras da Festa da Uva. As perguntas que compõem o roteiro de entrevista relacionam-se: a) às práticas ambientais; b) a resíduos sólidos; c) à divulgação da Festa; d) aos expositores e patrocinadores; e) aos desfiles; f) às olimpíadas coloniais; g) à água; h) à energia; i) à água residuária (esgoto). Os resultados obtidos com a pesquisa permitem concluir que existem ações ambientais implantadas de forma isolada na Festa da Uva. Entretanto, é importante construir um novo conceito de planejamento para a Festa da Uva, em que se contemple efetivamente a variável ambiental. Nesse sentido, cabe aos cursos de graduação em turismo e hotelaria e aos cursos stricto sensu em turismo desenvolverem estudos que contemplem a variável ambiental. Como foi possível constatar com a realização da pesquisa, ainda há relações que precisam ser estabelecidas entre a variável ambiental e o planejamento de eventos turísticos. Cabe, portanto, um novo olhar aos eventos turísticos, planejando-os sob a ótica ambiental.<br>Submitted by Ana Guimarães Pereira (agpereir@ucs.br) on 2015-10-08T11:36:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Gisele Silva Pereira.pdf: 943157 bytes, checksum: f57d2cbb91a2b9c7b76bf14e14707417 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-08T11:36:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Gisele Silva Pereira.pdf: 943157 bytes, checksum: f57d2cbb91a2b9c7b76bf14e14707417 (MD5)<br>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior<br>An event needs to work out the environmental variable during all planning’s phases in order to accept its environmental responsibility. This present research plans to examine the established relationships between the environmental variable and a tourist event. Therefore, the subject of research originated from the following question: is the environmental variable considered when planning the National Grape Festival 2006? With this in mind, the objective of this study is to identify the consideration given to the environmental variable when planning the National Grape Festival 2006, which happened in Caxias do Sul – RS – Brazil. Along with the general objective, the following specific objectives are pointed out: a) to check the established relationships between environmental information and the Festival’s planning; b) to identify how solid waste produced at the Festival is handled; c) to examine the solid waste prevention principle at the Festival’s planning; d) to identify environmental education actions at the Festival’s planning; e) to examine water, eletric power and residuary water’s variables at the Festival’s planning; f) to check environmental criterion consideration when choosing the Festival’s sponsors and exhbitors. In an effort to meet the objectives suggested, direct observation was carried out regarding the Grape Festival at two different periods of time. On top of that, 19 people were interviewed, including the chairman, vice-chairman and the directors of the Festival’s organizing commitee. The interview script consisted of questions concerning: a) environmental practices; b) solid waste; c) Festival’s advertising; d) sponsors and exhbitors; e) parades; f) local Olympic Games; g) water; h) power; i) residuary water (sewage). Through the results obtained in the research, we are able to conclude that there are many environmental actions introduced in an isolated manner at the Festival. However it is important to build a new planning concept for it, which might effectively include the environmental variable. With regards to it, undergraduate courses such as tourism, hotel management and stricto sensu tourism have responsibility for developing studies which consider the environmental variable. As it was possible to conclude through the research, there are many relationships yet to be established between the environmental variable and tourist events’ planning. Therefore, a new look at tourist events, planning them under an environmental view, is essencial.

Tourists are now visiting some of the most remote and amazing places on Earth, travelling to �frontiers� on journeys that are psychological and emotional as well as geographical or physical. These extraordinary journeys to the Poles, the peaks of the highest mountains in the world, harsh deserts and even outer space test both physical and mental endurance and can be characterised as �unique� even in the current era. Travelling largely without the aid of a commercial tour operator or guide, the frontier traveller usually invests a great deal of time and resources in their travel experience, often with the assistance of sponsorship, and generally takes part in an extensive and arduous preparation period in their quest for the extraordinary. While the search for new and unique tourism destinations and experiences appears to be relentless in this post-modern era, the frontier traveller appears to be searching for the �authentic� beyond the �tourist bubble,� both in relation to self and setting. These frontier �trailblazers� are already being followed by guided adventure tourists and some of the former are supplementing their incomes and funding their own travel by leading tours or guiding others to the frontier. Studying the extraordinary experiences of the frontier traveller could therefore provide us with a glimpse of the future of travel, although likely to occur in a more structured and less risky guise. Uncovering the motivations for this form of travel will also assist with future marketing of these experiences, including elements of the marketing mix such as product development and promotion. This thesis examines the motivations behind frontier travel and considers the implications of the findings for tourism marketing. Unstructured, long interviews with 37 individuals were used to uncover the motivations behind these experiences, supplemented by content analysis of narratives produced by frontier travellers, encompassing 50 autobiographies, two online diaries and online interviews with two individuals. The interview participants were largely selected through purposive sampling, in that they were screened as fitting the criteria of a past or potential frontier traveller before being interviewed. They were predominantly born and living in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, and 29 of the 37 individuals were male. Ages of participants ranged from 24 to 60 years of age. Interviews continued until saturation of categories of motivation had been reached. Texts were mainly located through searches of bookshops and libraries, including the author�s personal library. A qualitative methodological approach was chosen in order to provide rich data and allow the researcher to enter the world of the frontier traveller. An interpretive paradigm based on a constructivist paradigm underpinned this study, with an ontological stance based on multiple realities and an epistemological position where participants and myself as the researcher created understandings. The methodology outlined above was consistent with this position and was designed to identify different constructions of the data and seek consensus, where possible. The literature on motivations provides a complex plethora of theories and models, many of which contradict each other, so a principal objective of this study was to work from first principles, grounding a theory of motivations pertaining to frontier travel experiences in the data, rather than seeking to test out a pre-existing model or theory. Overall, the research findings show that motivations for frontier travel can be analysed under the broad heading of �adventure,� which is composed of a variety of sub-motives such as achievement and competence, challenge, thrill-seeking and sensation, ego, dreams or fantasies, self-actualisation, cognizance (exploration/discovery), freedom/escape motives (autonomy), isolation and solitude, spirituality, camaraderie and communitas, authenticity, prestige (external rewards), pro-social motives and a love of nature and wilderness. Risk or danger is an element of these experiences and feeds into many of the motivations identified in this study. A theory of motivations behind frontier travel experiences has been developed, covering intrinsic and extrinsic motivations, as well as achievement-motivated behaviour. Pre-travel influences and inspirations such as literature, cinema, visual stimuli, childhood games, heroes and mentors, family influences and educative influences are also considered with respect to their effect on motivational behaviour. An exploratory typology was then developed for frontier travellers, based on common motivations, which might be used to segment the market. Four basic types have been identified and labelled or categorised as �Seekers of Truth,� �Enlightened Explorers,� �Concerned Elitists,� and �Freedom Seekers.� Key motivations behind specific frontier travel experiences have also been identified. Each frontier traveller will exhibit some, but not all, of the motivations highlighted in this study. Segmenting the market on the basis of motivations may therefore be a difficult, if not impossible task. However, marketers could use the information unearthed during this study in the marketing mix to develop new products aimed at satisfying some of the key motivations and use the findings as themes to be highlighted in promotional literature such as brochures and websites. This thesis also argues that the study of travel motivations in the future would be better served by considering motivations behind market niches such as frontier travel, rather than attempting to develop a comprehensive theory of motivations covering the whole travel industry.

This thesis is based on four essays dealing with tourism development and its determinants. Chapter Two explores the different definitions of ‘tourism’ and ‘tourist’, as well as the factors that influence tourism arrivals. We discuss traditional and more recent theories that underlie the study of the tourism industry. The third chapter examines the effect of tourism upon economic growth, investigating the effects of tourism specialization within tourism-exporting countries and non-tourism-exporting countries annually over the period 1995–2007, applying panel-data methods in cross-sectional growth regressions. This study finds that tourism does not affect economic growth in either underdeveloped or developed countries. Moreover, tourism might cause Dutch Disease in tourism-exporting countries owing to their over-reliance on the exporting of non-traded goods. Chapter Four seeks to identify how institutional quality and aspects of infrastructure (internet access measured by size of country or per 100 people) influence tourist arrivals in a whole sample of 131 countries and in sub-samples comprising developed and developing countries (as defined by IMF criteria) using static and dynamic panel data. The findings indicate that internet access enhances the tourism industry, and most interestingly, that good governance is one of the most influential factors for improving and developing tourism. Chapter Five diagnoses the determinants of tourism flows using panel-data sets including 134 originating countries and 31 destination countries (selected depending on data availability) focusing on ICRG data for the period 2005–2009. The methodology makes use of basic and augmented gravity equations, together with the Hausman-Taylor and Poisson estimation techniques, whilst comparing the performance of the three gravity-equation methods. The results suggest that lower levels of political risk contribute to an increase in tourism flows. Furthermore, common language (positively), common currency (negatively) and political factors (particularly institutional quality) are the most prominent determinants in promoting (or deterring) tourism. Chapter Six gives concluding remarks.

This work has a single aim, focusing on developing a political risk model relevant for tourism organisations, which are operating in an increasingly complex and turbulent international environment. It pays particular attention to the language of risk (how risks are articulated and described), the culture of risk (how risks are viewed), and the risk process (how they are analysed and assessed). The work critically evaluates a variety of methods that can be utilised to scan, analyse and assess political hazards and risks. It finds that many of the existing methods of political and country risk assessment are limited and not sufficiently contextualised to the needs of the tourism industry. Whilst many models can have an attractive façade of using positivistic methods to calculate political risks, in practice these are fraught with problems. The study also highlights a more complex relationship between tourism and political instability, whereby tourism can be characterised as much by its robustness, as its sensitivity. A model is developed which primarily adapts a systems theory approach, whereby a language, culture and practical process is developed through which the analysis of various factors and indicators can take place. The approach adopted has a number of stages, which vary in the amount of data necessary for the analysis and assessment of political risks. The model begins by utilising existing travel advice databases, moving onto an analysis of the frequency of past events, then to the nature of the political system itself, finishing with an analysis and assessment of more complex input factors and indicators which relate to notions of causation. One of the more provocative features of the model is the argument that it is more than possible to make an assessment of the risks that the political environment can pose to a tourism organisation, without necessarily understanding theories of causation.

This work has a single aim, focusing on developing a political risk model relevant for tourism organisations, which are operating in an increasingly complex and turbulent international environment. It pays particular attention to the language of risk (how risks are articulated and described), the culture of risk (how risks are viewed), and the risk process (how they are analysed and assessed). The work critically evaluates a variety of methods that can be utilised to scan, analyse and assess political hazards and risks. It finds that many of the existing methods of political and country risk assessment are limited and not sufficiently contextualised to the needs of the tourism industry. Whilst many models can have an attractive façade of using positivistic methods to calculate political risks, in practice these are fraught with problems. The study also highlights a more complex relationship between tourism and political instability, whereby tourism can be characterised as much by its robustness, as its sensitivity. A model is developed which primarily adapts a systems theory approach, whereby a language, culture and practical process is developed through which the analysis of various factors and indicators can take place. The approach adopted has a number of stages, which vary in the amount of data necessary for the analysis and assessment of political risks. The model begins by utilising existing travel advice databases, moving onto an analysis of the frequency of past events, then to the nature of the political system itself, finishing with an analysis and assessment of more complex input factors and indicators which relate to notions of causation. One of the more provocative features of the model is the argument that it is more than possible to make an assessment of the risks that the political environment can pose to a tourism organisation, without necessarily understanding theories of causation.

Thesis (MTech (Tourism and Hospitality Management))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2007<br>The main objectives ofthis research were • To investigate how HIV/AIDS affect Southern African tourism, with specific reference to the tour operators. • To investigate measures taken by the Southern African tour operators and governments to combat HIVIAIDS and the chances of success. • To make some recommendations on what can further be done to fight HIV/AIDS in the Southern African tourism sector. T 0 conduct the literature study, the following methods were used: I. Literature search particularly about Southern Africa and in general, as well as news report has been conducted. H. Review ofHIV statistics. lll. Use of Internet. IV. Journals and government publications. RESULTS: The United Nations (2005: 22) indicates that Southern Africa is experiencing the highest rate of HIV infection in the world. The infection rate is particularly high among the young people (aged 15 - 49). This age group constitutes people who are economically active, and some of them work directly or indirectly in the tourism sector. THETA (2003: 4) conducted a study on a number of tourism and hospitality companies in South Africa. The study results indicate that 92% of the companies surveyed do not have HIVIAIDS educational programmes for their employees, and that 91% of the surveyed companies do not provide HIV/AIDS preventive measures like condoms to their workers at workplace.

The purpose of the study was to gather strategies and factors from tourism security professionals from which terrorism risk management policies can be developed. This study utilized the Delphi method in order to provide structure for the group process. Twelve tourism security experts made up the panel completing three rounds of questionnaires via the email based Delphi technique. This research identified fifty-four strategies to reduce the propensity of terror attack at a tourism venue. Those strategies were divided into four levels of priority based on criticality and feasibility. The fifty-four strategies were grouped into nine subordinate categories. The subordinate categories were related to Training, Communications/ Liaison, Planning/ Assessment, Background Checks, ID Badges/ Secure Entrance, Specialty Security Units, Architectural Design, Media Cooperation, and Technology Based strategies. Alongside the strategies are a collection of comments by the experts regarding strengths, weaknesses, and any barriers to implementation pertaining to the individual strategy. Tourism risk managers, security personnel, and insurance underwriters can all use the results in reducing the opportunity for a terrorist attack at a tourism venue. Major research findings from this study included: 1. The strategy receiving the highest criticality ranking over all other strategies involves training first responders on their role in circumventing the success of terrorists. 2. The subordinate category Communication/ Liaison contains the largest number of strategies indicating the significance of this category among experts. 3. The subordinate category of Specialty Security Units contains the second highest number of strategies indicating the importance of the topic among experts. 4. All of the technology based strategies fell into the lowest priority level. Based on the findings of this study, researcher recommendations include: 1. The guidelines developed in this study should be used by operators of tourism venues to make the best use of limited resources. 2. National or international conferences should be established to further discuss these issues. 3. A greater number of communications mediums should be established to facilitate the exchange of ideas and experiences between affected professionals. 4. Insurance providers should use this information to establish validated guidelines so that, if prospective clients adhered to the recommendations, a reduction in premiums could be offered. 5. Other entities may benefit from this study, such as public school systems, the energy production industry, hospital systems, and pipeline systems.

The primary objective of this research was to develop "A Risk Management Model for the Tourism Industry in South Africa", when viewed from a business perspective. To achieve this objective, a number of secondary objectives were established, these being: 1 To explore relevant existing theories and models related to risk and risk management within tourism businesses and the tourism industry in general 2 To analyse domestic and international risks associated with the domestic tourism industry 3 To conduct a survey to determine those risks that should, from a manager's (supply side) perspective, form part of the model 4 To draw conclusions from the empirical analysis for the inclusion of risks in the risk management model and to make recommendations as to how the risk management model can be implemented by role players of the tourism industry Risk is inherent in every sphere of life and, no matter the size of the risk, it will have a detrimental effect and cause damage in some way. This study examines the steps that the industry has taken regarding actions necessary to prevent or limit risks. Since the advent of universal suffrage in 1994, South Africa has attracted significantly more visitors to the country's shores. With an increase in tourism traffic, there is always an increase in risk. Additionally, the literature review indicated not only an increase in the frequency of risks, but that no well-accepted risk management model exists within the industry. The study investigated both domestic and international risks and their effects on the industry from a business perspective. The categories of risk include, but were not limited to, natural risks, crime, health and safety, political factors, economic risks, technological risks and socio-demographic risks. A literature study into the existence of a suitable risk management model for the tourism industry (Chapter 2) revealed that, although a number of models existed, there were none specifically for the tourism industry. This emphasised a need in the tourism industry, which was subsequently confirmed by further literature study into the risks that can be associated with the tourism industry (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). To assist with the construction of an appropriate risk management model, a number of risk management models from other industries and disciplines were examined to obtain a structure that could be useful to the tourism industry. Further literature study revealed that, even though mentioned by a number of authors, these authors did not recognise risks that were prevalent and specifically associated with tourism. No literature source was found that provided either complete or detailed discussion of risk and risk management aimed specifically at the tourism industry worldwide. This supports the view that there is also no specific risk management model for use by the tourism industry. The in-depth literature study looked into potential risks associated with the tourism industry from a domestic and international perspective. With reference to the South African tourism industry, domestic risks include those risks that are internal and external to businesses operating within the industry (Chapters 2 & 3). A structured questionnaire was sent out to 800 operators and owners of businesses in the industry, to tour operators, travel agents, guesthouses, bed and breakfast establishments and lodges registered with the Association of Travel Agents (ASATA) and with the South African Travel Services Association (SATSA). The results obtained from the 212 valid questionnaires returned were used as input to the model. The study, through empirical research, was able to establish which risk factors had the greatest effect on the industry and which factors had little or no effect on the industry. The analysis of risk, taken from the questionnaires, did not provide evidence that tourism businesses are equally affected by most factors (categories of risk). The analysis does, however, indicate that infrastructure, particularly in the areas of both domestic and international marketing, has the greatest perceived risk followed by safety (safety of the business) and thereafter by finance. The lowest perceived risk was in the area of organisational risk, which includes internal and external business risks, largely involving staff and their ability to manage the business. The analysis, however, did show that there is a need for training. The topic of safety highlighted that tour operators and travel agents, due to the nature of their business, saw this as important whereas guesthouses and bed and breakfast establishments were less likely to attract international guests and were therefore not strongly influenced by aspects such as airline safety, exchange rates and currency fluctuations. The study highlighted the fact that some categories of risks significant to one business sector may not have the same affect on another sector. However, this did not adversely influence the development of the model. This research has identified two significant deficiencies in respect of risk management in the (South African) tourism industry - that there is no literature source that provides an in-depth discussion of risks and risk management in the tourism industry, and that there is no generally accepted risk management model and process for use by the industry. In view of this, this research has made a valuable contribution to the existing body of knowledge related to the tourism industry by: * Highlighting the importance of identifying risks as well as a more formal approach to risk management for the Tourism Industry * Identifying various risks that could have an impact on the industry * Showing that risks differ from sector to sector within the Tourism Industry * Developing a risk management process and model, which has not existed before, in the tourism literature * Providing a user-friendly tool for use by tourism industry operators to manage risks specific to their business, thereby reducing the negative impact of domestic risk on the business and industry and also maximising the benefit that may be obtained by exploiting the external risks * Highlighting the complexity of managing risks from a destination point of view A final contribution is that this is the first research of its kind in the South African tourism literature. Based on the study of both local and international literature sources, the above contribution is not only of value to the South African tourism industry, but worldwide.<br>Thesis (Ph.D. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

This doctoral thesis explores the perception of tourism destinations though two major lines of research, destination image and risk perception, by a compendium of publications. The first article compares the cognitive evaluations of risk and image literatures. A content analysis was conducted and results revealed that although the cognitive attributes assessing each concept separately often coincide, they are described differently, with image studies using positive terms and risk studies, negative terms. The second article explores the primary risk dimensions associated with international travel and what influences them. Results revealed five dimensions and these were influenced by gender, age, education and past travel experience. The third article offers an integrated approach to destination perceptions by merging the cognitive and affective evaluations of image and risk perceptions. A travel behavior model was developed, a Structural Equation Modeling was used to analyze the data and findings supported the proposed model.<br>Aquesta tesi doctoral explora la percepció de les destinacions turístiques a través de dues línies de recerca, la imatge de la destinació i la percepció del risc. Al ser per compendi de publicacions, el primer article compara les avaluacions cognitives d’ambdues literatures on l’anàlisi de contingut va revelar que els atributs cognitius que separadament avaluen cada concepte sovint coincideixen, però que es descriuen diferent sent els d’imatge positius, i els de risc negatius; el segon article explora les principals dimensions de risc associades als viatges internacionals i què els influeix. Els resultats revelen cinc dimensions i aquestes es veuen influenciades per factors sociodemogràfics i per l'experiència prèvia en viatges; i el tercer article ofereix un model integrat de les percepcions d’una destinació, combinant les avaluacions cognitives i afectives d’imatge i risc. Aquest model es va testar amb Models d’Equacions Estructurals i els resultats van corroborar les relacions del model proposat.

This thesis is about global catastrophic risks and the conscious effect of such risks at the level of everyday life. Utilising R. D. Laing's concept of "ontological security", this thesis questions the extent to which risks that loom in the global environment cause a sense of ontological insecurity amongst individuals at the local-level. In addressing this question, this thesis responds to the theories of Ulrich Beck and Anthony Giddens who maintain that the contemporary age is marked both by the emergence of global risks that exist as the unintended consequences of modernisation and a greater sense of risk owing to how information about such risks is disseminated by the media. While no objection is made to the argument that the global environment has become more objectively threatening, this thesis questions whether individuals in fact perceive such threat in their daily lives. This argument rests on the view that global risks, in the main, lack a tangible dimension needed to elicit a sense of urgency. Seeking to ground the risk literature from the level of theoretical abstraction to that of lived experience, this thesis presents a case study of how risk is perceived in the tourist-dependent township of Akaroa. Despite the fact that New Zealand is generally seen as "safe" and "secure" and removed from the vicissitudes of global events, its economic reliance on international tourism ensures a susceptibility to external forces that disrupt global tourism flows. Given the recent publicity as to how such risks as climate change and peak oil may undermine international tourism in New Zealand, it is clear that areas that are particularly reliant on the international visitor market, like Akaroa, are significantly exposed to global events. This not only makes Akaroa an ideal case study in which to establish the extent to which global risks undermine ontological security in daily life, it also helps measure how seriously individuals in tourist-dependent areas consider the possibility of a substantial tourist decline.

[Truncated abstract] Global tourism accounted for US$623 billion in 2004, representing 6% of the world's exports of goods and services (World Tourism Organisation, 2005). In the last decade, natural and man-made disasters have adversely affected the tourism industry. Consequently, the risk and uncertainty associated with travel have increased, potentially impacting on tourists' behaviour. However, while travel motivators have received a great deal of research attention, travel constraints have not been examined to the same degree. The present study explores risk and uncertainty and their roles in people's decisionmaking processes in a tourism context. In doing so, attempts were made to clarify the distinction between the risk and uncertainty constructs, which in prior research often have been used interchangeably, leading to some confusion about their roles. The distinction between the perceptual and attitudinal constructs also was clarified, as prior research into their differential impacts has been limited. To achieve these objectives, data were collected from online research panel members in Australia, the United States (USA), the United Kingdom (UK), New Zealand, South Korea, China and Japan, as part of a larger tourism study. While the majority of the country samples were drawn from the general population, the Japan sample constituted an international

Humans are inherently drawn to places of naural scenic beauty. Alone in Australia's national parks; the demand on these locations is increasing because of increased population plus increasing regional domestic travel. It is important to understand how tourists are utilising nature-based tourism resources to ensure that tourist attractions, facilities and services provided in parks are not exposed to loss events. Environmental and human losses, when combined with their likelihood of occurrence, will constitute risk. Heavy use of popular sites in particular times of the year, beyond the carrying capacity, may result in an irreparable environmental loss. Besides, human risks in terms of becoming lost in the wilderness or falling down from the cliff are significant factors that park managers are considering. It is becoming utmost important to investigate how these visitors are interacting with the natural environment, in what ways at highly vunerable sites. Park managers are now required to understand the needs, demands, preferences and motivation of visitors to vist the parks. A proactive planning to manage potential risk particularly in relatively more fragile and vulnerable environments is needed. This thesis documents a study of visitors to Loch Ard Gorge Site within the Port Campbell National Park, Victoria. Visitors were monitored for their spatial behaviour using the GPS receivers. Visitor's attitude, interests, opinions and motives to travel to the study location is surveyed using onsite self-administrated questionnaire. Total 102 individuals were surveyed to determine their preferences and to obtain their socio-demographical profiles.These were latter coupled with their GPS track movements in order to derive their elicited spatial behaviour. It is well-established fact that visitors' attitude, preferences, and socio-demographical profiles are important factors to identify risk taking spatial behaviour. Hence, this research underpins the exhibited spatial behaviour of tourist to deliver their associated spatial behavioural risk typologies. Statistical classifications of visitors, based on survey responses were categorised using K-means Cluster Analysis. As a result, six different tourist types were obtained. They are; • Mid-Allocentics possibly Risk Takers. • Allocentrics and confirmed Risk Takers. • Mid-Psychocentrics and Risk Averters. • Allocentrics and Dependent Risk Takers. • Psychocentrics and confirming Risk Averters. • Psychocentrics and Risk Averters Mass Tourists. The mean values of all clusters (cluster centroids) are interpreted to understand tourist's risk taking and/or risk averting preferences. Visitors' actual spatial behavioural were spatially analysed using movement pattern maps. The typologies subsequently were verified using Discriminant Function Analysis and in this process tests of equality of group means (Significance of F-test), ANOVA classification are discussed. The final part of Discriminant Function Analysis is to determine the linear regression equations for prediction of group membership of data points in future using classification Function Matrix (Fisher's Linear Disceriminant Function). The developed tourist typologies may help park managers to regulate and mitigate human risk prior to its occurrence by understanding the visitors personality and preferences and their risk taking probabilities.

<p>Riskhantering inom rese- och turismnäringen där resenärens uppfattning ligger till grund för dennes köpbeslutsprocess har fått begränsat med uppmärksamhet på den akademiska arenan.</p><p><strong>Syfte:</strong> denna uppsats syftar till att studera vilka riskuppfattningar som en potentiell resenär associerar med den urbana miljön, samt hur detta fungerar som inverkansfaktor på resenärens konsumentbeteende i valet av staden som destination. <strong></strong></p><p><strong>Teoretiskt ramverk:</strong> en litteraturgenomgång och ett teoretiskt ramverk visar på vad som utgör det så kallade risksamhället, betydelsen av riskkategorisering diskuteras samt hur kopplingen mellan resenärens riskuppfattning och dennes köpbeslutsprocess ser ut.</p><p><strong>Metod:</strong> för att uppnå syftet har problemet angripits med ett abduktivt arbetssätt. En kombination av kvantitativ och kvalitativ metodik har applicerats. I enkätundersökningen deltog 224 inkommande resenärer till Stockholm, vilket har bearbetats statistiskt med Pearsons Chi2-test för att undersöka graden av riskuppfattning beroende på socio-demografiska faktorer. Dessutom genomfördes nio samtalsintervjuer som ledde till en tematiserad sammanställning.</p><p><strong>Empiri:</strong> genom enkätformuläret observerades att psykologiska riskuppfattningar var mest framträdande, och i samtalsintervjuerna noterades hur riskuppfattningen påverkar konsumentbeteendet.</p><p><strong>R</strong><strong>esultat:</strong> slutsatserna som har dragits är att 1) korrelation föreligger mellan socio-demografiska faktorer och riskuppfattning, 2) stadens livsrytm fungerar som inverkansfaktor, och att 3) uppfattningen om risker präglas av subjektivitet.</p><br><p>Risk management within the travel- and tourism industry has been undeservingly neglected as a field of study in the academia.</p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong> this thesis aims to study different types of risk perceptions that a potential traveller associates with urban areas, and how this perception influences the consumer behaviour in the decision-making process.</p><p><strong>Theoretical framework:</strong> the literature review seeks to explain what constitutes a risk society, the significance of categorizing risk perceptions is outlined, and the connection between traveller´s perception of risks and its decision-making. <strong></strong></p><p><strong>Methodology:</strong> to achieve the purpose of this study, the writers have used an abductive approach, where a quantitative and a qualitative methodology have been applied. 224 incoming travellers to Stockholm participated in the survey. The outcome was then statistically processed using Pearson´s chi-square test in order to measure the risk perceptions based on socio-demographical aspects. In addition, nine interviews were conducted.</p><p><strong>Empirical data:</strong> in the survey it was noted that psychological risk perceptions were most noticeable, and in the interviews it was found in what form risk perceptions affect traveller´s consumer behaviour.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>the found conclusions are that 1) traveller´s perception of risks correlates with socio-demographical factors, 2) a city´s pace of life functions as an influential factor on the consumer behaviour, and that 3) the perceptions of risks are primarily characterized by their subjectivity.</p>

Risk is an increasingly important factor of our modern society, but that does not mean that risks have become higher today versus any other epoch of human history. Especially in the developed world, risks have been progressively lowered over time. In opposition to the declining risk in everyday life of our modern society, there seems to be an apparent increasing prevalence of risk-taking in our leisure pursuits. More people are willing to take unenforced risks and the fast growing development of adventure tourism is a good example of this. The main purpose of this thesis is to create an understanding how service providers of dangerous activities manage the balance risk and safety in interaction with their customer. Our research objective is to obtain an understanding of risk management practice in a context with the potential physical risks inherent in adventure tourism. The organizational structure for a service provider in extreme environments can be similar to a temporary organizational structure and can therefore be seen from a project management perspective. This research is conducted through a qualitative case-study, which was carried out in the context of a mountaineering expedition in the attempt to summit Mount Everest. Our empirical data are gathered from a database created by the research project Extreme Environments – Everyday Decisions (Triple ED). This database contains numerous transcribed interviews, tracking records, and field notes that was used in order to interpret and analyze the expedition and encounters happening during the process of this mountaineering expedition. Our empirical findings suggest that management of a balance between risk and safety is highly dependent on honest communication. Educated personnel that have the experience and knowledge necessary to manage an expedition or group in a similar setting are another key feature. Furthermore, managing a balance between physical risk and safety is an on-going process in the context of adventure tourism with a large amount interaction between the service provider’s representatives and their customers. For these reasons, the building of a well-functioning relationship between the incorporated strong stakeholders is of importance when balancing risk and safety in a dangerous activity with inherent risks for physical harm.

This thesis estimates the economic impact of uncertain tourism demand in Hawaii. It does this by incorporating risk into a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. CGE models have been used to investigate a wide range of policy issues. To date, none have investigated how uncertainty regarding future tourism demand impacts on an economy. The context in which this research is set is the US State of Hawaii. The economy of Hawaii is heavily dependent on tourism as a source of income and a generator of employment. Shocks originating outside of Hawaii have resulted in sharp decreases in visitor arrivals to Hawaii. Yet, these events and the risks associated with future possible shocks to an economy is something that needs to be factored in when planning for the future hence the need to understand what type of impacts uncertain tourism demand will have on the economy. This thesis develops a new method for incorporating uncertainty within an applied economic model. The method involves incorporating uncertainty through different states of the world or paths that the economy may take. The risk then is that one or more of the paths may experience an external shock, which in the example used is a downturn in tourism demand. This thesis then adds to the body of knowledge methodologically. The multi-sector forward-looking CGE model with risk shows the impact of uncertainty on the economy. The results show that, where there is an asymmetric shock, the possibility of a future tourism demand shock creates a welfare loss. The welfare gains along the non-shocked path are a result of household’s risk aversion and their substituting resources away from the shocked path. The difference in the monetary values of the welfare on the different paths can be interpreted as the ‘price’ of the risk. It is the price households would pay to remove the possibility of the tourism shock. Therefore, this research was able to quantify the monetary value of the risk. Several government policy decisions, such as the imposition of a tourism tax, are simulated to mitigate the impact of the uncertainty.

Thesis (DTech (Tourism and Hospitality Management))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2010<br>Purpose: Botswana is one of the countries with the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence rate in the world. This research aims to investigate the impact of HIV/AIDS on the socio-economic environment in Botswana with special reference to the country’s tourism sector. Tourism plays a vital role in the economy of Botswana. It creates employment, earns foreign exchange, markets Botswana internationally, attracts foreign investments and contributes to Gross Domestic Products (GDP).Methodology: This report explains the HIV/AIDS situation and policy framework relative to the tourism sector in Botswana and in selected African countries through conducting an extensive literature review and empirical surveys. This is a quantitative research in which non-probability method is used to indentify the respondents. Here tourism general managers are identified and asked to identify their subordinates who are available and willing to participate in the survey by answering a self-administered questionnaire.Findings: This study indicates that HIV/AIDS threatens the Botswana tourism and the viability of the socio-economic factors. In general, the Southern African region is experiencing the highest rate of HIV infection in the world. The infection rate is particularly high among the young people (aged 15 – 49). This age group constitutes people who are economically active, and a number of them work directly or indirectly in the tourism sector. HIV/AIDS kills the economically active population – people who hold the skills, do the work, pay taxes, raise children, vote in the elections, and provide leadership. HIV/AIDS results in increased mortality and morbidity rates, and it also results in increased health expenditure. It also results in increased poverty level in the country.Practical implications: When observing the prevalence and impact of HIV/AIDS not only in the tourism sector but in general, it becomes evident that the fight against the disease should be a collaborative approach involving various sectors including tourism. Relying only on government and health sector to address the complex and systematic impact of HIV/AIDS cannot effectively combat the disease and its prevalence rate.Originality/value: This report analyses HIV/AIDS situation in Botswana in a creative way, contributing to the understanding of its impacts on the socio-economic environment as well as identifying strategies that can be used in addressing the impacts. This research is important for public policy makers, government officials, and tourism role-players to be aware of implications HIV/AIDS has on the socio-economic environment and take them into consideration in the policy formulation and implementation, business strategies and processes. It is also imperative to academics who would like to expand their knowledge on HIV/AIDS.

The objectives of the study are to review and evaluate four basic risk models that are commonly used in investment science; statistically investigate the risk factor in Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) that is used to reflect the safety of an investment decision in stocks; explore the statistical distribution of monthly precipitation in Belize and to forecast tourist arrivals using statistical time series modelling techniques. The risk models are the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe-Linter Version), Capital Asset Pricing Model (Conditional Version), Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and Fama–French three-factor model adopted in empirical investigations of asset pricing. The underlying assumptions of using these models are reviewed, and the statistical procedures to evaluate their robustness are reviewed. It will be shown that the present manner of determining this risk factor is quite sensitive and misleading. We introduce a statistical procedure for obtaining a more robust measure of the risk factor commonly referred to as CAPM beta. Changes in the hydrological cycle will generate repercussions in all sectors. It is therefore imperative that Belize’s water resources be managed in an integrated manner, responding to the requirements of all sectors. Daily rainfall data have been collected for a period of 51 years (1960– 2011) from The National Meteorological Service of Belize. The Wakeby distribution adequately fit the monthly rainfall data producing a suitable model based on the Kolmogorov – Smirnov test. Tourism is vitally important to the entire Belize’s economy, contributing 50% of Belize's gross domestic product in 2015. It is the foremost foreign exchange earner in this small economy, followed by exports of marine products, citrus, cane sugar, bananas, and garments. The tourist sector is not without its vulnerabilities and is subject to international economic vagaries. In order to meet the expected future demands on the industry in terms of service delivery it is important that the sector understands the significance of forecasting.

Communicating the risks related to extreme heat is important and essential for saving lives. This study looks at how tourists think about extreme heat in a hot and dry environment. It looks at relationships between an individual’s local climate, their thoughts about the current weather conditions, and demographics. The results from this study are intended to help tourist agencies, emergency managers and emergency planners, and policymakers in creating and carrying out communication strategies for extreme heat. Thoughts about and physical responses to weather are different for everyone and shaped by personal experiences. How one thinks and feels about the weather is influenced by a lifetime of personal experiences, unique to each person. However, the connection between an individual’s experience and that of his/her understanding of weather-related risk, more specifically risk in extremely hot conditions, has yet to be studied. From 1988 to 2017 extreme heat events have killed more people in the US than any other weather-related hazard (i.e. tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, etc.). By understanding how an individual perceives weather conditions, we can begin to better understand best practices for communicating the risks of extreme heat with the intent of saving lives. There are three primary findings from this study. First is that visitors were likely to overestimate the temperature when it was cooler, but underestimate the temperature when it was hotter. Second, risk perceptions of visitors did not increase during hotter days. Lastly, visitors were not more likely to perform protective behaviors, such as checking the weather or carrying water, on hotter days. If extreme heat conditions do not influence visitors’ behaviors, they are placing themselves more at risk to extreme heat exposure.

The purpose of this study was to explore the current scenario of interscholastic athletics in terms of the existence and enforcement of risk management plans within high school athletic departments. Another purpose was to identify the common practices related to risk management currently utilized. The present study had a response rate of 16.7%. The results showed that 76.2 % of the respondents (N=816) conduct interscholastic activities with the support of risk management plans, but there are still 23.8% of those interscholastic athletic departments where risk management plans are nonexistent. In addition, from those who indicated having a risk management plan, 28% do not enforce it. A majority of respondents seem to be employing risk management best practices consistently, but there is an indication of a less than desired level of adoption of some practices (i.e., informed consent forms, pre-season sport specific meetings, ADA compliance, coach evaluation and written criteria, safety training, accessibility of AED’s, and warning signs). The results of our study showed a statistically significant relationship between the athletic directors’ years of experience and the adoption of certain risk management practices (i.e. coach evaluation, evaluation criteria, risk management enforcement, and hazard abatement), but (surprisingly) not to the adoption of other similarly important practices. This study provides high school athletic administrators and principals with relevant information that can be used to support their decision to adopt and enforce risk management plans for interscholastic athletic activities.

The South African education system is based on learner centred principles and encourages the development of critical thinking. This approach is reflected in the South African Qualifications Framework, which identifies critical thinking as a primary outcome of education. In the vocational Tourism programme, there is a link between the subject learning outcomes and critical crossfield outcomes. The role of the vocational college educator is central in facilitating the development of critical thinking skills of all learners. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the selected Tourism educators develop critical thinking skills of risk L2 students. I conducted the study in a selected FET College using a qualitative case study in order to gain deeper understanding of how the educators implement curriculum policy in their classrooms. This study used four data collection instruments to gain an in-depth understanding of the research topic. The findings of the study reveal that educators understand the value of teaching critical thinking. However, there is a gap between educators’ conceptual understanding of critical thinking and their instructional practice to develop critical thinking skills during classroom instruction. The findings also reveal that there are factors that hinder the development of at risk students’ critical thinking skills such as; limited English language proficiency, poor behaviour, and subject guidelines which do not provide educators with guidance on teaching critical thinking skills. The study recommends in-service training sessions that will support educators on how to teach critical thinking skills explicitly. This study also recommends the development of practical guidelines to enhance educators’ critical thinking teaching strategies. The findings of this research will assist me in improving the support that I provide to Tourism educators.

In New Zealand, the highest incidence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) is found in meat processing, accounting for over half the injury compensation costs for the sector. This thesis reports on a two-year study of MSD in the New Zealand meat processing industry, with the aims of identifying MSD risk factors and interventions using an industry-level participative ergonomics approach. A review of the literature on occupational musculoskeletal disorders and participatory ergonomics identified gaps in knowledge, notably contextual factors for MSD and a limited scope for participatory ergonomics. The studies described in this thesis contribute to addressing these knowledge gaps. The first stage of the study established a profile of MSD injury data in the industry. Data were collected from four injury data sources for meat processing. A number of priority tasks were identified for beef and sheep processing, based on triangulation of these data, and findings were approved by the industry stakeholders, the Meat Industry Health and Safety Forum (MIHSF). The second stage of the study was the assessment of these tasks in a representative sample of processing plants, with the purpose of identifying risk factors that contribute to the occurrence of MSD, implementation barriers and MSD interventions. The study involved interviews with 237 workers, management, union and safety personnel in 28 meat processing sites. MSD risk factor data were separated into those concerning the high MSD-risk tasks (task-specific), and the wider work system (task-independent). From these data a list of contextual factors was developed which it is proposed may create conditions under which greater exposure to physical and psychosocial factors can occur in meat processing. Some 276 interventions were also identified. The third and final stage of the study involved working with the MIHSF in developing the interventions for use by the industry in reducing MSD risk. MSD intervention ideas were collated, summarised and prioritised. A document containing interventions, implementation barriers and risk factors was developed with the MIHSF and distributed to all levels of the industry. The thesis reflects on the effectiveness of an industry-level participative ergonomics approach to the achievement of the study aims, notably the identification of contextual risk factors and interventions for MSD.

M.Sc., Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, 2011<br>Global climate change, often referred to as „global warming‟ is possibly one of the most serious environmental challenges facing the world this century (DEAT, 2004; IPCC, 2007). There have been several studies (e.g. Viner and Agnew, 1999; Higham and Hall, 2005; IPCC, 2007; Midgley et al., 2008) on the potential impacts of climate change on the tourism sector and the likely effects are shown to be extremely wide ranging and may have far-reaching consequences for the tourism sector in many regions and areas of the world. From a review of the literature it was evident that there was limited literature on the response to climate change by the tourism industry in terms of mitigation, adaptation and long- term strategic planning to manage future anticipated climate change impacts. Given this background, this research explores the tourism industry with regard to game and nature reserves in South Africa and probes the perceptions of climate change amongst park managers and tourism operators to understand their awareness regarding the projected impacts of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation strategies that were in place or being developed in the management of the game and nature reserves are identified and examined. Challenges that were experienced by the tourism managers/operators in promoting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in the nature based tourism sector in South Africa are highlighted and discussed and recommendations are provided. Purposeful sampling was employed in the research and the stakeholders were identified according to their important roles in the South African Tourism Industry with regard to game and nature reserve management. These included the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South African National Parks (SANParks), South African National Botanical Institute (SANBI) and the Provincial Park Managers which comprises the Eastern Cape Parks, Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (GDARD), Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, Limpopo Tourism and Parks Board, Mpumalanga Parks Board, North West Parks and Tourism Board and Cape Nature. The research data was collected using open-ended questionnaires and interviews with the stakeholders. Results of this research showed that there was a basic understanding of climate change and its associated impacts on tourism consistent with what is being established in the scientific literature. Despite this awareness among relevant stakeholders, there was however not much formal long-term strategic planning or mitigation and adaptation plans in place to manage or „manage‟ the suggested projected impacts of climate change on the tourism industry. The research results also highlighted many challenges experienced by the nature- based tourism sector.

碩士<br>國立成功大學<br>國際經營管理研究所<br>102<br>It is important to understand how tourists perceive risks and how these risks influence their decision to travel to a sabotaged destination. This study will investigate how tourists process information by understanding their travel motivations as part of their risk reduction strategies to overcome their perceived risks in traveling. This study includes two research objectives. The first research objective involves an empirical investigation of the dimensions of perceived risks and motivations in tourism. Dimensions of risk were identified as uncontrollable risk, infrastructure risk, and direct service risk. Tourists’ perceive uncontrollable risk to be more salient than infrastructure and direct service risks when making travel decision. Dimensions of travel motivation were identified as related to adventure, culture, relaxation, and business. Tourists are highly motivated to travel for adventure than for culture, relaxation, and business. The second research objective is an experimental study to investigate the mediating effect of regulatory focus on perceived risk information processing. This involves a 2 (regulatory focus) x 2 (risk probability) x 2 (risk impact) between-subject experimental study. Promotion-framed ad is preferred than prevention-framed ad under low risk condition. However, both promotion-framed and prevention-framed ads can be effectively communicated to tourists under high risk condition. Moreover, only risk events with higher recurrence probability are more consistent with prevention focus construal. Risk impact of risk events does not show to be salient to tourists’ information processing when making travel decisions. This study concludes that ad message that emphasizes hedonic features, a promotion-framed message, is sufficient to attract tourists to revisit a sabotaged destination. Ad message that provides means to avoid risky events, a prevention-framed message, plays only a supplemental role in tourism communication persuasion because tourists’ motivation to travel is fundamentally adventure focused, which is a promotion-dominated goal regulation mechanism.

碩士<br>中國文化大學<br>觀光事業學系觀光休閒事業管理碩士在職專班<br>104<br>ABSTRACT Chunghwa Telecom launched Transportation and Tourism Department in 2011 in order to support the development of Taiwan's tourism industry. Chunghwa Telecom possesses ICT (Information and Communication Technology) and cloud technology, marketing and operational resources, which in alliances with Taiwan's tourism industry, providing a smart sightseeing and travel e-commerce platform named“HiNet tourism clouds”. In this fierce competitive environment, enterprises need to enhance their ability to understand the factors influence customers when making decisions in order to meet the needs of consumers, and at the same time increase their profit margins. In this study, questionnaire survey was adapted. Opinions of 400 customers who have ever purchased tourism products from HiNet tourism Clouds were gathered. For corporate image, cus-tomers agreed that "Chunghwa Telecom is professional", "Chunghwa Telecom can be trusted ", and" consumer transactions in Chunghwa Telecom network were secure and private ". For consumer behavior, there are more consumers who purchased domestic tourism and single products(Only purchase one of accommodations or air tickets or travel vouchers.) than foreign tourism and travel packages. Base on the findings, HiNet tourism cloud can consider providing more foreign tourism packages and discounted products to enhance market competitiveness on this platform. This study aims to analyze consumers who consume through the Internet about the correlation of corporate image, perceived risk while gathering information, and the willingness to perform the transactions. The results of this study are expected to enhance the Chunghwa Telecom HiNet tourism cloud and as a reference for e-commerce platforms and information services of leisure and tourism industry.

Political-Military Risks for Tourism in the Middle East Abstract The master's thesis analyses the perception of political-military risks for incoming tourism in the Middle East from the perspective of Czech potential tourists. The examined area of the Middle East bears some geographic and geopolitical ideas, that are still absent in the Czech scientific milieu. Tourism in the Middle East also operates in the environment of political-military risks. Scholarly literature suggests that these risks represent one of the main factors influencing the choice of destination. The paper deepens understanding of this relationship by focusing on the perception of political-military risks in space, in terms of their typological diversity, and analyses determinants of this perception. The main research tool, a questionnaire, served to collect data that was analysed through descriptive statistics and statistical inference, as a paired t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and correlation analysis. The findings are mostly in consensus with theoretical knowledge and previous studies. Individual types of political- military risks showed different impact on the perception for realization of tourism. A statistically significant difference exists between violent and non-violent political-military risks. In some cases, however,...

Abstract in English, Afrikaans and Sesotho<br>Scuba diving is a popular marine recreational activity along the eastern and southern coast of Africa. This region is characterised as the East African Marine Ecoregion (EAME) and is known for its richness in marine fauna and flora, including some of the Indian Ocean‟s most diverse and abundant coral reef ecosystems, making it a popular destination for scuba divers. The future of the scuba diving industry has come under threat as a result of environmental, social, political and economic impacts, and there is a need to better understand how these external risks impact on scuba diving tourism businesses in the EAME. Empirical evidence suggests that external risks, both international and domestic, have an effect on the tourism industry as a whole. However, limited research has been conducted on the impact of such external risks on the dive tourism industry specifically. Existing research has also focused extensively on environmental risks rather than on how external risks of a political, economic and social nature affect dive operator sustainability in the EAME. Most studies have also focused on the demand side (divers) as opposed to the supply side (dive operators). In addition, as dive tourists have greater flexibility to change their destination should risks arise, this threatens the success of dive operators in higher risk areas. To address these problems, the primary objective of the research undertaken sought to comprehensively identify the impact of external risks (environmental, economic, social and political) on dive operators in four countries within the EAME from a supply-side perspective. In order to achieve the primary objective, the following secondary objectives were achieved: 1. Identified scuba diving tourism operators in the EAME and their scope of operation. 2. Determined the external risks most relevant to dive operators in the EAME and assessed their level of impact. 3. Compared the individual external risks experienced by each of the countries in the EAME (Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa) using a cross-case analysis. 4. Assessed the perception of dive operators regarding whether external risks would influence a dive tourists decision to travel to the dive operators area of operation in the EAME ii The study consisted of two phases. Phase 1 comprised structured interviews with a select group of dive operators to gain insight into the external risks most prevalent in the scuba diving industry, as well as to assist in developing a quantitative structured survey (Phase 2), which was subsequently completed by dive operators in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa. Data was imported into SPSS for quantitative statistical analysis. From the primary data collected, the major findings from this study determined that current economic and political risks have the greatest impact on dive operators in the EAME, and this trend is expected to continue. Environmental degradation of coral reefs, while not seen as a threat at present, constitutes a key threat for the near future. The greatest influences expressed in terms of risk categories impacting on dive tourism are domestic economic risks, international economic risks, domestic political risks and international political risks. A cross-case analysis conducted on the four countries concluded that external risks have varying effects within the different countries. Finally, the results indicated that external risks significantly influence a dive tourist's decision to travel to the EAME. By identifying and assessing the external risks that have an impact on dive operators in the EAME, this research contributes to knowledge on the dive tourism industry in the EAME, as well as dive tourism further afield and the wider field of tourism management. The study's findings create awareness of the effect that external risks have on dive operators in the region. A conceptual framework was developed which encompasses external risks in the scuba diving industry. Risk radars, risk maps and colour-coded tables were further outputs this study which can assist businesses, society and economies in responding to current and future threats and crises in a more informative and intuitive way. This can be achieved by implementing risk management strategies to mitigate or reduce exposure to external risks; strengthening stakeholder involvement along the tourism value chain; and stressing the need for government involvement towards the protection of the environment and promotion of small business growth in the region. Future research can include a wider view of the marine tourism industry and other areas of the Blue Economy.<br>Skubaduik is 'n gewilde mariene ontspanningsaktiwiteit langs die oos- en suidkus van Afrika. Hierdie streek staan bekend as die Oos-Afrika Mariene Ekostreek (East African Marine Ecoregion, EAME) en is bekend vir sy rykheid aan mariene fauna en flora, insluitende sommige van die Indiese Oseaan se mees diverse en welige koraalrif-ekostelsels, wat dit 'n gewilde bestemming vir skubaduikers maak. Die toekoms van die skubaduikbedryf word bedreig weens die impak van omgewings-, sosiale, politieke en ekonomiese gebeure, en daar is 'n behoefte om beter te verstaan hoe hierdie eksterne risiko's skubaduiktoerisme-besighede in die EAME beïnvloed. Empiriese bewyse suggereer dat eksterne risiko's, internasionaal sowel as plaaslik, 'n invloed op die toerismebedryf as 'n geheel het. Beperkte navorsing is egter gedoen oor die impak van sulke eksterne risiko's op spesifiek die duiktoerisme-bedryf. Bestaande navorsing het ook uitvoerig gefokus op omgewingsrisiko's eerder as hoe eksterne risiko's van 'n politieke, ekonomiese en sosiale aard duik-operateur-volhoubaarheid in die EAME beïnvloed. Die meeste studies het ook gefokus op die aanvraagkant (duikers) in teenstelling met die aanbodkant (duik-operateurs). Verder, omdat duiktoeriste meer buigsaamheid het om hulle bestemming te verander indien risiko's voorkom, bedreig dit die sukses van duik-operateurs in hoë-risiko-gebiede. Om hierdie probleme te hanteer is die primêre doel van die navorsing wat gedoen is om op omvattende wyse die impak van eksterne risiko's (omgewing, ekonomies, sosiaal en polities) op duik-operateurs in vier lande in die EAME te identifiseer uit 'n aanbodkant-perspektief. Om die primêre doelwit te behaal, is die volgende sekondêre doelwitte bereik: 1. Skubaduik-toerisme-operateurs in die EAME en hulle operasionele omvang is geïdentifiseer. 2. Die eksterne risiko's wat die relevantste vir duik-operateurs in die EAME is, is bepaal en hulle vlak van impak is geassesseer. 3. Die individuele eksterne risiko's wat deur elkeen van die lande in die EAME (Kenia, Tanzanië, Mosambiek en Suid-Afrika) ervaar is, is vergelyk deur die gebruik van 'n kruisgeval-analise. 4. Die persepsie van duik-operateurs wat betref of eksterne risiko's 'n duiktoeris se besluit sal beïnvloed om na die duik-operateur se operasionele gebied in die EAME te reis, is geassesseer. Die studie het uit twee fases bestaan. Fase 1 het gestruktureerde onderhoude met 'n geselekteerde groep duik-operateurs behels om insig te kry in die eksterne risiko's wat die algemeenste in die skubaduikbedryf voorkom, en om te help om 'n kwantitatiewe gestruktureerde peiling (fase 2) te ontwikkel, wat gevolglik deur duik-operateurs in Kenia, Tanzanië, Mosambiek en Suid-Afrika voltooi is. Data is ingevoer in SPSS vir kwantitatiewe statistiese analise. Uit die primêre data wat ingesamel is, het die belangrikste bevindings van hierdie studie bepaal dat die huidige ekonomiese en politieke risiko's die grootste impak op duik-operateurs in die EAME het, en daar word verwag dat hierdie tendens sal voortduur. Die omgewingsagteruitgang van koraalriwwe, hoewel dit nie tans as 'n bedreiging beskou word nie, is 'n sleutelbedreiging vir die nabye toekoms. Die grootste invloede wat uitgedruk is as risiko-kategorieë wat 'n invloed op duiktoerisme het, is plaaslike ekonomiese risiko's, internasionale ekonomiese risiko's, plaaslike politieke risiko's en internasionale politieke risiko's. 'n Kruisgeval-analise wat op die vier lande uitgevoer is, het bevind dat eksterne risiko's wisselende uitwerkings binne die verskillende lande het. Laastens het die resultate aangedui dat eksterne risiko's 'n duiktoeris se besluit om na die EAME te reis, aansienlik beïnvloed. Deur die eksterne risiko's te identifiseer en te assesseer wat 'n impak op duik-operateurs in die EAME het, dra hierdie navorsing by tot kennis oor die duiktoerismebedryf in die EAME, asook duiktoerisme verder weg en die wyer veld van toerismebestuur. Die studie se bevindings skep 'n bewustheid van die uitwerking wat eksterne risiko's op duik-operateurs in die streek het. 'n Konseptuele raamwerk is ontwikkel wat eksterne risiko's in die skubaduikbedryf omvat. Risiko-radars, risiko-kaarte en tabelle wat volgens kleur gekodeer is, was verdere uitsette van hierdie studie wat besighede, die gemeenskap en ekonomieë kan help om te reageer op huidige en toekomstige bedreigings en krisisse op 'n meer ingeligte en intuïtiewe manier. Dit kan bereik word deur risikobestuurstrategieë te implementeer om blootstelling aan eksterne risiko's te mitigeer of te verminder; belanghebberbetrokkenheid op die toerismewaardeketting te versterk; en om die behoefte vir regeringsbetrokkenheid by die insluit.<br>Ho sesa tlasa metsi a lewatle ke mosebetsi o tsebahalang haholo wa boithabiso ba lewatle haufi le mabopo a ka botjhabela le borwa ba Afrika. Sebaka sena se kgethollwa e le lefatshe la bophelo ba mawatle a Afrika Botjhabela (EAME) mme se tsejwa ka leruo la sona la diphoofolo tsa lewatle le dimela, ho kenyelletsa le tse ding tsa diphedi tse fapaneng tsa lewatle la Indian, e leng se etsang hore e be sebaka se tumeng bakeng sa batho ba sesang tlasa lewatle. Bokamoso ba indasteri ya ho tola tlasa lewatle bo kotsing ka lebaka la tshusumetso ya tikoloho, kahisano, dipolotiki le moruo, mme ho na le tlhokahalo ya ho utlwisisa hantle hore dikotsi tsena tsa kantle di ama jwang dikgwebo tsa bothori bo amanang le ho sesa tlasa lewatle EAME (Mabatoweng a Afrika Botjhabela a diphedi tsa mawatle). Bopaki bo hlakileng bo fana ka maikutlo a hore dikotsi tsa kantle, tsa matjhaba le tsa lehae, di na le tshwaetso indastering ya bohahlauli ka kakaretso. Leha ho le jwalo, dipatlisiso tse fokolang di ile tsa etswa mabapi le sefutho sa dikotsi tse jwalo tsa kantle indastering ea bohahlaudi ba ho sesa ka ho kgetheha. Dipatlisiso tse teng di boetse di tsepamisitse maikutlo haholo ka dikotsi tsa tikoloho di sa shebe hore na dikotsi tsa kantle tsa dipolotiki, tsa moruo le tsa kahisano di ama jwang ho tsitsisa tshebetso ho EAME. Diphuputso tse ngata di boetse di tsepame lehlakoreng la tlhokahalo (disesi) ho fapana le lehlakore la diphallelo (batho ba sesang). Ho phaella moo, jwalo ka ha disesi tsa bahahlaudi di ena le maemo a mangata a ho fetola dibaka tsa bona ha ho hlaha dikotsi, sena se senya katleho ya disesi dibakeng tse nang le dikotsi tse ngatanyana. Ho rarolla mathata ana, sepheo se ka sehloohong sa dipatlisiso tse entsweng di ile tsa leka ho lemoha ka ho hlaka sefutho sa dikotsi tsa kantle (tikoloho, moruo, kahisano le dipolotiki) ho disesi dinaheng tse nne tse ka hare ho EAME ho tloha lehlakoreng la phepelo. E le ho finyella sepheo se ka sehloohong, dipheo tse latelang di ile tsa fihlellwa: 1. Ho kgetholla basebeletsi ba bahahlaudi ba ho sesa lebatoweng la EAME le tsela ya tshebetso ya bona. 2. Ho etsa qeto ya dikotsi tse ka ntle tsa bohlokwa ho tsamaisa ba disesi ho EAME le ho hlahloba boemo ba tsona ba tshusumetso. 3. Ho bapiswa dikotsi tse ka ntle tsa naha ka nngwe ho EAME (Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique le Afrika Borwa) ho sebedisa dintlha tsa ho hlahloba diketsahalo. 4. Hlahloba maikutlo a disesi mabapi le hore na dikotsi tse ka ntle di tla susumetsa qeto ya bahahlaudi ba ho etela sebakeng seo ba sebetsang ho sona ho EAME Thuto e ne e ena le mekgahlelo e mmedi. Mokgahlelo wa 1 o ne o ena le dipuisano tse hlophisitsweng le sehlopha se kgethilweng sa basebetsi ba disesi ho utlwisisa dikotsi tse ka ntle tse atileng haholo indastering ya ho sesa, le ho thusa ho ntlafatsa tlhahlobo e entsweng ka bongata (Phase 2), e ileng ya qetella e phethilwe ke basebetsi ba disesi Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique le Afrika Borwa. Lesedi le ile la kenngwa ka SPSS bakeng sa tlhahlobo ya dipalopalo. Ho tswa leseding la motheho le bokelletsweng, diphuputso tse kgolo tsa thuto ena di bontshitse hore dikotsi tsa moraorao tsa moruo le tsa lipolotiki di na le tshusumetso e kgolo ho ba sebetsang e le basebetsi ba disesi EAME, mme mokgwa ona o lebeletswe hore o tswele pele. Ho senyeha ha tikoloho ya dimela/diphedi tsa lewatle, ha ho sa nkuweng e le tshoso hona jwale, ke tshoso e ka sehloohong bakeng sa nako e tlang. Tshusumetso e matla ka ho fetisisa e hlalositsweng ka mekgahlelo ya dikotsi tse amang tsela ya ho etela dibaka tsa bohahlaudi ke dikotsi tsa moruo wa lehae, dikotsi tsa matjhaba tsa moruo, dikotsi tsa dipolotiki tsa lehae le dikotsi tsa matjhaba tsa dipolotiki. Phuputso e entsweng dinaheng tse nne e qetile ka hore dikotsi tsa ka ntle di na le diphello tse fapaneng dinaheng tse fapaneng. Qetellong, diphello di bontshitse hore dikotsi tsa ka ntle di susumetsa haholo qeto ya mohahlaudi wa ya sesang tlasa lewatle ho etela EAME. Ka ho kgetholla le ho hlahloba dikotsi tse ka ntle tse nang le tshwaetso basebetsing ba disesi EAME, dipatlisiso tsena di tlatsetsa tsebong lefapheng la bohahlaudi ba ho ho sesa tlasa lewatle dibakeng tsa EAME, ha mmoho le bahahlaudi ba ho sesa ka ho phatlalla tsamaisong ya bohahlaudi. Diphuputso tsa thuto di etsa hore ho be le tlhokomediso ya phello ya ka moo dikotsi tse ka ntle di nang le kameho disesing sebakeng seo. Ho na le moralo o ileng wa etswa o kenyeletsang dikotsi tsa kantle indastering ya ho sesa tlasa lewatle. Diwaelese tse nkgellang dikotsi, dimmapa tsa dikotsi le ditafole tse nang le mebala di ne di boetse di hlahisa thuto ena e ka thusang dikgwebo, setjhaba le moruo ho arabela dikotsing tsa moraorao le tsa nakong e tlang ka ditsela tse rutang le tse nang le tsebo. Sena se ka fihlellwa ka ho kenya tshebetsong maano a tsamaiso ya kotsi bakeng sa ho fokotsa ho pepeseha dikotsing tsa kantle; ho matlafatsa tshebetsong ya bankaseabo motjheng wa bohlokwa wa bohahlaudi; le ho totobatsa tlhokahalo ya ho nka seabo ha mmuso ho sireletsa tikoloho le tshehetso ya kgolo ya dikgwebo tse nyenyane sebakeng seo. Phuputso ya nako e tlang e ka kenyelletsa pono e pharaletseng ya indasteri ya bahahlaudi ba lewatle le dibaka tse ding tsa Blue Economy.<br>Environmental Sciences<br>M. Com. (Tourism Management)

While the phenomenon of risk is something that people generally try to minimise in their lives, the concept of adventure tourism presents an interesting set of circumstances in that tourists actually seek, or at the very least accept, the risk of sustaining physical injury during the adventure tourism experience. This makes adventure tourism unique when compared to all other types of tourism. In order to explore and add value to this difference, the aims of this study are to determine the importance of experiencing risk in choosing to participate in different adventure tourism activities, to understand the motivations, levels of satisfaction, and post-activity intentions of adventure tourists, so that specific marketing strategies may be developed. A total of 612 people were surveyed both before and after taking part in three different adventure tourism activities (whitewater rafting, bungy jumping, and sailing). It was found that prior experience in the given activity did not present itself as a factor that lowered risk as a motivation, that no motivational differences existed between nationalities, and that varying levels of inferred satisfaction are present. Marketing strategies for each of the activities, based on multivariate motivations, are recommended.

碩士<br>健行科技大學<br>國際企業經營系碩士班<br>104<br>In this study, 28 listed and OTC (emerging stock market included) tourism stocks having been released for over (including) one year are chosen from the Market Observation Post System of Taiwan Stock Exchange to be the targets of research. According to the proportion of the main product of each of enterprise, the 28 businesses are divided into 4 from the travel industry, 12 from the hotel industry, 7 from the dining and beverage industry and 5 from the general industry. XQ global winner is applied to obtain the closing price for the day of each of these enterprises in 2015. Then the historical simulation method, variance and covariance, and the Monte Carlo simulation method are employed to discuss the value at risk of the tourism industry in 2015. The results of study show that in 2015 the average monthly rate of return was -0.66% and the value at risk was 0.0604 for the travel industry. Star Travel (2719) had the highest value at risk and Phoenix Tours (5706) the lowest. For the hotel industry, the average monthly rate of return was -.62% and the average value at risk was 0.0427. Lea Lea Hotels (5364) had the highest value at risk and First Hotel (2706) the lowest. The monthly rate of return was -0.55% and the average value at risk was 0.0534 for the dining and beverage industry. Sunrise International Development (2720) had the highest average value at risk and TTFB (2729) the lowest. The average monthly rate of return was 1.00% and the average value at risk was 0.0616 for the general industry. Elements Innovation (5395) had the highest value at risk and Wanhwa Enterprise (2701) the lowest. Overall, the average monthly rate of return for the general industry was the best performance in the tourism industry in 2015 whereas the average value at risk of 0.0427 of the hotel industry was the lowest.

碩士<br>國立勤益科技大學<br>企業管理系<br>106<br>In recent years, with social and economic stability and prosperity in Taiwan and increasing national incomes, it changes people’s attitude and values to life. After the government totally implemented weekend holidays, how to properly plan the trips on every weekend becomes the concern of most of people. It directly triggers development of leisure tourism market in Taiwan. This study mainly treated tourists as subjects. By questionnaire survey and statistical analysis, it explored correlations and effects among tourism motivation, tourism image, perceived risk, and revisit intention. According to research findings: (1) there is a significantly positive correlation among tourism motivation, tourism image, and revisit intention; there is a significantly negative correlation among tourism motivation, perceived risk, and revisit intention; (2) there is a significantly positive effect among tourism motivation, tourism image, and revisit intention; there is a significantly negative effect among tourism motivation, perceived risk, and revisit intention; (3) in terms of demographic variables, subjects of different education show significantly different perceptions on tourism motivation and tourism image. Previous research findings will serve as reference for future planning in leisure tourism industry.

碩士<br>南華大學<br>旅遊管理學系旅遊管理碩士班<br>105<br>When engaged in tourism activities always accompanied by a number of uncertain risks. Therefore, it is necessary and important to insure desirable tourism insurance and inconvenience insurance to use "insurance" to reduce, spread and even avoid the loss of accidents. 　　This study mainly studies the people who have arranged for foreign tourism in the past to understand the degree of perception of the perceived risk of tourism and the perceived value of tourism insurance, in order to explore whether it will impact the people on purchasing travel insurance, then we can do the relevant research and analysis. 　　Totally, there are 619 valid questionnaires were feed backed and processed by descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, factor analysis, variance analysis and regression analysis. The results of the study are as follows: (1) The physical risk, medical risk and loss of baggage risk of perceived risk shows a positive significant impact on the importance of tourism insurance guarantee of perceived value. (2) The physical risk, medical risk and loss of baggage risk of perceived risk shows a positive significant impact on the tourism insurance of perceived value. (3) The service risk and loss of baggage risk of perceived risk shows a positive significant impact on the importance of tourism inconvenience insurance guarantee of perceived value. (4) The loss of baggage risk of perceived risk shows a positive significant impact on the tourism inconvenience insurance of perceived value. (5) The importance of tourism safety insurance guarantee of perceived value has a significant positive impact on “I usually purchased tourism insurance in the past when travelling abroad” of tourism insurance buying behavior. (6) The tourism inconvenience insurance of perceived value has a significant positive impact on “I usually purchased travel insurance in the past when travelling abroad” of tourism insurance buying behavior.

碩士<br>輔仁大學<br>餐旅管理學系碩士班<br>106<br>Tourism market increases rapidly these days, traveling become one of the most popular activity, the more people go travel, the more travel aciddent will occur, buying travel insurance is one of the way to ensure tourist during the trip. This study examines the difference between TAIWAN, HONG KONG and MACAU tourist on percived risk of tourism and buying behavor of travel insurence .A total of 1277 questionnaire were collected, while 406 were collected from TAIWAN,443 were collected from HONG KONG, 428 were collected from MACAU. The results show that: (1) There were significantly difference between TAIWAN, HONG KONG and MACAU tourist on percived risk of tourism. TAIWAN got the highest score, MACAU got second and HONG KONG were the last. (2) There were significantly difference between TAIWAN, HONG KONG and MACAU tourist on buying behavor of travel insurance, MACAU got the highest score, HONG KONG got second and TAIWAN were the last. (3) The risk level of the travel destination is a morderator between percived risk of tourism and buying behavor of travel insurance.

博士<br>銘傳大學<br>管理研究所<br>97<br>Tourist behavior has always been a central issue in the tourism literature. Research in this area has long focused on destination choices and purchase intentions. Most tourism products are accompanied by discounts or extra services designed to stimulate consumption. Tourist hesitation implies failure to stimulation for managers and causes tourists to miss certain products and services with unexpectedly lower price or higher quality. Therefore, this study tries to clarify the relationships among tourist risk perception, tourist knowledge, and hesitation that have ignored by the existing tourism research. Based on a structural equation modeling of data from 504 tourists, tourist risk perception positively influences tourist hesitation but tourist knowledge can moderate this relationship. According to this finding, the tourism practitioners should enhance tourist subjective knowledge of destination relevant items as much as possible to reduce the uncertainty and unsafty. And then, to improve the effect of tourist risk perception and hesitation is expected.

碩士<br>大葉大學<br>國際企業管理學系碩士在職專班<br>100<br>Future employment potential appears very bright. Bill Gates has identified tourism as one of his target areas for this century, as has John Naisbitt, of Megatrend fame, who sees it as a key component of the 21st century economy, along with telecommunications and information technology（College of Charleston，2012）. Although the Internet technology has promoted "globalization" (Levitt, 1985) across country borders, when traveling abroad, people face the divergence of environment, language, culture, politics and law. To our much concern, tourism accidents and disputes frequently happen one after another. Tourism is one of the important needs of modern life. In this study, we investigate how risk communication can effectively influence tourists` behavior in line with tourism ethics, and help them to minimize the risk of traveling abroad as well. Our study frame consists of three variables, which are Independent Variable -Risk Communication, Inter Variable – Risk Identification, and Dependent Variable –Tourism Ethics. As for research methodology, we take advantage of questionnaires in a random way. After collecting 387 effective questionnaires of the tourists in Taiwan with travelling abroad experience, we analyzed them with the Hierarchical Regression of SPSS15.0. The results of our study are as follows: Risk Communication has a positive effect on Risk Identification. Risk Identification has a positive effect on Tourism Ethics. Risk Identification has a positive relationship of the mediating effects between Risk-Communication, Inter Variable – Risk Identification, and Tourism Ethics, however, which is only partially substantiated. Because when tourists have sufficient messages in communicating the magnitude of hazard, it is unnecessary for them to identify risks and they would behave ethically without doubt on the trip. According to the results above, at the end of our study we would like to make some suggestions for travelling abroad. We hope: government should expose serious international tour risks to the public in time; tour business owners should take the responsibility of providing sufficient risk information; children should be taught to learn to follow the rules of tourism since the elementary school education. All what we have done hopes to warn tourists to behave ethically, and have a safe and enjoyable trip overseas.

博士<br>國立中興大學<br>應用經濟學系所<br>102<br>This dissertation contains three essays. The study focuses on a risk management approach to tourism finance in the Taiwan tourism industry during the year 2001 to 2013. The first essay examines the size effects of volatility for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry during 2001-2013. The analysis is based on four conditional univariate GARCH family models. Daily data from 30 November 2001 to 27 February 2013 are used, which covers the period of Cross-Straits tension between China and Taiwan. The full sample period is divided into two subsamples, namely prior to and after the policy reform that encouraged Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The empirical findings confirm that there have been important changes in the volatility size effects for firm performance, regardless of firm size and estimation period. Furthermore, the risk premium reveals insignificant estimates in both time periods, while asymmetric effects are found to exist only for large firms after the policy reform. The second essay investigates the size effects on volatility spillovers between exchange rate returns and tourism performance with asymmetry for the Taiwan tourism industry, two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH. in the volatility specification. Daily data from 1 July 2008 to 29 June 2012 are used, which covers the Global Financial Crisis. The empirical findings indicate that there are size effects on volatility spillovers from the exchange rate to firm performance. Specifically, the risk for firm size has different effects from the three leading tourism sources to Taiwan, namely USA, Japan, and China. Further-more, all the return series reveal quite high volatility spillovers (at over 60%) with a one-period lag. The empirical results show a negative correlation between exchange rate returns and stock returns. However, the asymmetric effect of the shock is ambiguous, owing to conflicts in the significance and signs of the asymmetry effect in the two estimated multivariate GARCH models. The third essay explores a composite tourism indicator, taking account of both the economic and tourism environments as a whole, to forecast future tourism and economic environments in a straightforward manner, based on Chang’s (2014) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). Monthly data on financial stock index returns, tourism stock sub-index returns, effective exchange rate returns and interest rate differences from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan are used. The empirical findings show that TFCI is statistically significant using the estimated conditional mean of the tourism stock index returns. The new TFCI provides interesting insights in predicting the current economic and financial environment for tourism stock index returns that are based on publicly available information. In particular, the use of market returns on the tourism stock index as the sole indicator of the tourism sector, as compared with the general activity of economic variables on tourism stocks, is shown to provide an exaggerated and excessively volatile explanation of tourism financial conditions.