Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'RISM'

Quellen sind Puzzleteile historischer Forschung. Um die Teilchen zu finden und zusammensetzen, benötigt der Wissenschaftler verschiedene Orientierungshilfen. Von entscheidender Bedeutung sind überregional ausgerichtete Nachweisinstrumente. Im musikbibliothekarischen Bereich sind derartige Projekte bereits früh nachweisbar. Neben Katalogen musikalischer Quellen einzelner Bibliotheken entstand schon zu Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts mit Robert Eitners Biographischbibliographischem Quellenlexikon der Musiker und Musikgelehrten christlicher Zeitrechnung bis Mitte des neunzehnten Jahrhunderts ein erstes monumentales Verzeichnis, in dem Musikhandschriften und frühe Musikdrucke zentraler europäischer Sammlungen zusammengefasst wurden.

Maß der Dinge in puncto Dokumentation von Musikmanuskripten ist der Online-Verbundkatalog http://opac.rism.info. Seit seiner Freischaltung im Jahre 2010 ist er das globale Schaufenster von RISM, ausgeschrieben Répertoire International des Sources Musicales oder Internationales Quellenlexikon der Musik. Das bislang in 34 Ländern tätige Vorhaben widmet sich der Erschließung der jeweiligen historischen Musikalien. Die hergestellten Katalogisate werden an die RISM-Zentralredaktion in Frankfurt/Main übermittelt, die sie redaktionell bearbeitet und veröffentlicht (vgl. BIS 201, H. 3, S. 180–182).

Das Internationale Quellenlexikon der Musik (RISM) ist ein internationales Gemeinschaftsprojekt mit dem Ziel, die weltweit überlieferten Quellen zur Musik umfassend zu dokumentieren. Es bietet einen Online-Katalog, der Bibliothekaren, Musikern, Wissenschaftlern und allen interessierten Personen kostenlos zur Verfügung steht. Zunehmend gerät aber der Austausch von Daten in den Vordergrund, sei es von lokalen Online-Bibliothekskatalogen zu RISM oder umgekehrt. Für die Wissenschaft dürfte die Nachnutzung der Daten, die sowohl als Open Data als auch Linked Open Data bereitstehen, in Spezialprojekten von Interesse sein.
The International Inventory of musical Sources (RISM) is an international joint project with the aim of comprehensively documenting the sources of music worldwide. It offers an online catalogue that is available free of charge to librarians, musicians, scientists and all interested people. Increasingly, however, the exchange of data comes to the fore, be it from local online library catalogues to RISM or vice versa. For the science, the reuse of the data, which are available as open data as well as linked open data, may be of interest in special projects.

This dissertation describes the introduction and development of school journeys within the Swedish elementary schools during the period 1890 to 1940. The study focuses on how the jour­neys were perceived, organised and performed by elementary school teachers and their pupils. The development of school journeys is mainly due to two different organisations: The Elemen­tary School Teachers of Sweden (Sveriges allmänna folkskollärarförening, SAF) and the Swe­dish Tourist Association (Svenska Turistföreningen, STF). The latter started to support school journeys performed by elementary schools in 1898, by allowing teachers to apply for economic benefits. SAF, on the other hand, helped the development of journeys through the production of guidelines. They also appointed a special School Journey Committee 1899 that were to pro­mote school journeys, and they introduced special youth hostels for travelling school-classes in about 50 cities in Sweden during 1897-1930. School journeys were introduced in Sweden in 1894. The term was used to describe longer journeys taken by school children under the direction of teachers. Its intention was to give the pupil direct experience of the work that had been done in the classroom. The subjects that were dealt with in school, geography, history and nature studies, were thus objectified during the journey. Children were to see and experience such things that hitherto had been nothing but names. In this dissertation the different purposes of the journeys are discussed and it is argued that the journeys became a mean to translate into practise some of the progressive educational prin­ciples that Swedish progressive educators discussed at the end of the nineteenth century. These principles included that education should be based on direct observation, that it should pro­mote self-activity and that it should give the pupils a sense of the national community and shape their national identity. The study consists of three parts. The first part deals with the origin of school journeys and the educational principle of direct observation. The second part presents the ways the notion of school journeys were translated into practise. The third part discusses the image of Sweden that was presented to the children, through the journeys.
digitalisering@umu

This thesis presents a methodology for the seismic risk assessment and risk reduction of schools in British Columbia. The methodology permits school buildings to be ranked by risk levels, and includes information that allows designers to establish the seismic capacity of school buildings and to select appropriate retrofit options. This research includes the treatment of seismic hazard in the province by reference to different types of earthquakes that affect the region, and the development of an extensive database of structural performance of typical school buildings for different types of earthquakes and levels of shaking. The seismic hazard in the province is due to crustal, subcrustal and subduction earthquakes. The ground motion characteristics and the rates of occurrences of these different types of earthquakes are sufficiently different that it justifies assessing their effects separately in the risk calculations. The results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyzes have been combined with incremental nonlinear dynamic analyzes of a variety of structural systems subjected to the three earthquake types. A suite of thirty ground motions representative of these earthquakes has been used for the calculation of seismic risk. This process resulted in a large database of response of structural systems on different types of soils. The database was developed first for systems on firm soils (Site Class C). To account for soft soils (Site Class D) a simplified procedure was developed to convert structural performance on Class C sites to that on Class D sites. This thesis presents information that contributes to the state of knowledge in seismic risk in two forms: research and engineering practice. It provides a better understanding of how the risk in a region can be deaggregated according to the earthquake types, how representative ground motions for each earthquake type can be selected, and how the site conditions can be incorporated in probabilistic risk assessment. The contribution to engineering practice is the development of a ready-to-use methodology for risk assessment and for determining whether or not a retrofit is required for a giving type of structure on a certain type of soil and in a given seismic region.

Prescriptively, the requirement of fire safety protection systems for distribution substations is not provided in the compliance document for fire safety to the New Zealand Building Code. Therefore, the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) has proposed a list of fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations in a letter, dated 10th July 2002. A review by Nyman [1], has considered the fire safety requirements proposed by the NZFS and discussed the issues with a number of fire engineers over the last three years. Nyman concerned that one of the requirements regarding the four hour fire separation between the distribution substation and the interior spaces of the building may not be necessary when considering the risk exposure to the building occupants in different situations, such as the involvement of the sprinkler systems and the use of transformers with a lower fire hazard. Fire resistance rating (FRR) typically means the time duration for which passive fire protection system, such as fire barriers, fire walls and other fire rated building elements, can maintain its integrity, insulation and stability in a standard fire endurance test. Based on the literature review and discussions with industry experts, it is found that failure of the passive fire protection system in a real fire exposure could potentially occur earlier than the time indicated by the fire resistance rating derived from the standard test depending on the characteristics of the actual fire (heat release rate, fire load density and fire location) and the characteristics of the fire compartment (its geometric, ventilation conditions, opening definition, building services and equipment). Hence, it is known that a higher level of fire safety, such as 4 hour fire rated construction and use of sprinkler system, may significantly improve the fire risk to health of safety of occupants in the building; however, they could never eliminate the risk. This report presents a fire engineering Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on a transformer fire initiating in a distribution substation inside a high-rise residential and commercial mixeduse building. It compares the fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations from the NZFS to other relevant documents worldwide: the regulatory standards in New Zealand, Australia and United States of America, as well as the non-regulatory guidelines from other stakeholders, such as electrical engineering organisation, insurance companies and electricity providers. This report also examines the characteristics of historical data for transformer fires in distribution substations both in New Zealand and United States of America buildings. Reliability of active fire safety protection systems, such as smoke detection systems and sprinkler systems is reviewed in this research. Based on the data analysis results, a fire risk estimate is determined using an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for a total of 14 scenarios with different fire safety designs and transformer types for a distribution substation in a high-rise residential and commercial mixed-use building. In Scenario 1 to 10 scenarios, different combinations of fire safety systems are evaluated with the same type of transformer, Flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer. In Scenario 11 to Scenario 14, two particular fire safety designs are selected as a baseline for the analysis of transformer types. Two types of transformer with a low fire hazard are used to replace the flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer in a distribution substation. These are less flammable liquid (silicone oil) insulated transformers and dry type (dry air) transformers. The entire fire risk estimate is determined using the software package @Risk4.5. The results from the event tree analysis are used in the cost-benefit analysis. The cost-benefit ratios are measured based on the reduced fire risk exposures to the building occupants, with respect to the investment costs of the alternative cases, from its respective base case. The outcomes of the assessment show that the proposed four hour fire separation between the distribution substations and the interior spaces of the building, when no sprinkler systems are provided, is not considered to be the most cost-effective alternative to the life safety of occupants, where the cost-benefit ratio of this scenario is ranked fifth. The most cost-effective alternative is found to be the scenario with 30 minute fire separation and sprinkler system installed. In addition to the findings, replacing a flammable liquid insulated transformer with a less flammable liquid insulated transformer or a dry type transformer is generally considered to be economical alternatives. From the QRA analysis, it is concluded that 3 hour fire separation is considered to be appropriate for distribution substations, containing a flammable liquid insulated transformer and associated equipment, in non-sprinklered buildings. The fire ratings of the separation construction can be reduced to 30 minute FRR if sprinkler system is installed. This conclusion is also in agreement with the requirements of the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA).

La percepció del risc juga un paper clau en les decisions que prenem els éssers humans en molts àmbits de la nostra vida. Així, es comprova que les diferències a l’hora de percebre el risc es converteixen en el centre de debat entre els governs, la comunitat científica, els tècnics, la societat, entre els homes i les dones i entre els diversos grups culturals. El risc és una construcció social i per tant un fet subjectiu i relatiu que hem de tenir en compte a l’hora d’avaluar-lo i gestionar-lo. Aquesta recerca vol analitzar la relació entre la percepció dels treballadors del sector de l’esquí, pel que respecta als diferents atributs del risc, l’avaluació del risc realitzada pels tècnics de prevenció, el grau d’engagement o compromís que manifesten envers l’empresa i la gestió organitzacional de dos sistemes de gestió de seguretat i salut laboral diferenciats. Els resultats ens permeten emprendre actuacions que integrin aquestes opinions dels treballadors dins de les avaluacions de risc laboral, els plans de prevenció i les millores en el pla de comunicació de riscos de les organitzacions. També ens permet conèixer quines són les variables significatives a tenir en compte pels responsables de prevenció en relació amb el risc: edat, sexe, ocupació i anys d’experiència, entre altres variables.
The perception of risk plays an important role in the decisions that we, as human beings, make in several areas of our lives. For this reason, differences in risk perception are at the center of debate amongst governments, scientific communities, technicians, society, men and women, as well as among various cultural groups. Risk is a social construction, and therefore it is a subjective and relative fact that must be taken into consideration when it comes to measuring it and managing it. The purpose of this study is to analyse the relationship between the risk perception of workers at skiing resorts in reference to risk attributes, the risk assessment tasks performed by risk technicians, the degree of engagement or commitment they show towards the company and the organizational assessment of the two separate systems (security management and occupational safety). The results obtained enable us to adopt actions which incorporate the workers’ points of view in risk assessment, in the preventive plan and in the improvements in communicating risk programs within the organisation. It also enables us to determine the important variables that prevention technicians must consider when analysing risk: age, gender, occupation and prior experience, amongst other variables.

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Pesquisa teórica, de cunho filosófico-educacional, discute o projeto pedagógico do professor Carlos Roberto Petrovich (1936-2005) e suas possíveis ressonâncias com o riso e a arte bufa de François Rabelais, estudado por Mikhail Bakhtin. Petrovich foi aluno da primeira turma da Escola de Teatro da Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), e tornou-se depois professor. Nos anos imediatamente anteriores à sua morte, foi suspenso Ogan de Ogum, Terreiro Ilê Axé Opô Afonjá, Salvador-Bahia. Como não há registro sistematizado das suas experiências, este trabalho converteu-se numa tentativa de preservar a memória daquele que defendeu vigorosamente os povos silenciados. Pensar o homem e o mundo na perspectiva de Petrovich ensejou, necessariamente, o trânsito pela educação, pela cultura, pela arte e pela religião afrobrasileira. A preferência por resgatar a intensidade da sua vida através de personagens que representou no teatro e no cinema, trabalhos nos quais atuou como diretor e como arte-educador, todos de grande relevância para compreender sua verve poético-dramática e suas idéias de educação, resultou num texto que incorpora livremente figuras de estilo e adota o sentido do mosaico como premissa para construção do seu perfil biográfico. Sustenta, assim, a existência de um projeto petrovichiano, como percurso formativo guiado pelo imperativo de "ser o que se é", lema de Píndaro. Esta pesquisa apoiou-se no método alegórico e na filosofia da história de Walter Benjamin, tomando a vida de Petrovich como ruína e ressignificando-a a partir das narrativas daqueles que com ele conviveram. Para tanto, foram realizadas entrevistas abertas, gravadas, além de falas do próprio Petrovich. O projeto pedagógico deste professor instiga ao resgate da historicidade, da ambivalência, da corporeidade, da quebra de hierarquias, características do riso rabelaisiano, promovendo a restauração do educar a partir de uma estética que incorpora a arte, a filosofia, a literatura e a mitologia como possibilida- des de libertação do sujeito para empreender sua viagem na direção de "ser o que é".
Salvador

Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2009.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69).
Regardless of how well we implement sustainability plans, now and in the future, the weight of scientific evidence indicates that mean sea level will continue to rise at an increasing rate over the next century. Thus, coastal lands and development lie in a precarious position, increasingly vulnerable to flood damage brought by storm surges and extreme weather events. In order to avoid disastrous losses of property, life, ecological health and social wellbeing, our cities and regions must quickly implement adaptation plans that consider plausible climate models. Coastal risk can be managed through rigid protections, soft landscape solutions, and land use decisions and regulations. In developing and implementing adaptation plans, it is important to understand the options and their applicability to different site contexts. Experts warn that today's once-in-a century flood will likely occur every two or three years by 2050!' However, Boston, like many other U.S. coastal cities, is in the early stages of devising adaptation plans that seek to reduce coastal flood risk from sea level rise. As implementation of adaptation plans may take several years or decades, Boston should act quickly to strategically consider its options. This thesis examines the effectiveness of different planning approaches to hazard mitigation in urban coastal areas and applies them to at-risk sites in East Boston under coastal flood scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. Two sites in East Boston, one with a soft edge and one with a hard edge, create two distinct urban landscapes for design solutions.
(cont.) A menu of planning solutions that has been collected from a review of the literature and best practices is then used to inform design solutions to these problems. By applying contemporary predictions for sea level rise and the problem-specific expertise of coastal management to the site-specific realm of land use planning, I hope to provide a precedent and method for planners, particularly in the Boston area, to seriously incorporate sea level rise predictions into community discussions, regulations, and comprehensive plan making.
by Victoria H. Wolff.
M.C.P.

Durante la Edad del Bronce Tardío, el Levante Central estaba dividido en pequeños estados. La mayoría de los estudiosos creen que estos estados se organizaban de acuerdo con el modelo político y económico de la ciudad-estado, similar al del periodo dinástico Mesopotámico (ca. 2900-2350 a. C.) o al de la Grecia clásica (ca. 499-336 a. C.). En los últimos diez años, se ha propuesto que el sistema económico de la zona se asemejaba más al modelo de poder de puerto. Una variación del modelo de sistemas dendríticos que está basado en las interacciones comerciales entre puertos, yacimientos interiores y potencias económicas extranjeras. Esta tesis doctoral explora el sistema económico del Levante Central a la luz de nuevas evidencias arqueológicas descubiertas en los asentamientos de la cuenca baja del rio Qishon, proponiendo un nuevo estándar basado en el modelo de sistemas dendríticos, mejor ajustado a la realidad económica del Bronce Tardío.
During the Late Bronze Age (LBA), the Central Levant was divided into small states. Most scholars believe that these petite states were organized according to the political and economic model of the city-state, like that of Early Dynastic Mesopotamia (ca. 2900-2350 BCE) or Classical Greece (ca. 499-336 BCE). In the last ten years, however, it has been proposed that the economic system of the area matched better the harbor power model, a variation of the dendritic system model, a model based on the trade connections between harbors, inland sites, and foreign commercial powers. Throw this dissertation, I explore the economic system under the light of new archaeological evidence from the Lower Qishon Outlet, proposing a new standard, based on the dendritic system model, that fits better the economic reality of the Central Levant during the Late Bronze Age.

Solubility prediction usually refers to prediction of the intrinsic aqueous solubility, which is the concentration of an unionised molecule in a saturated aqueous solution at thermodynamic equilibrium at a given temperature. Solubility is determined by structural and energetic components emanating from solid-phase structure and packing interactions, solute–solvent interactions, and structural reorganisation in solution. An overview of the most commonly used methods for solubility prediction is given in Chapter 1. In this thesis, we investigate various approaches to solubility prediction and solvation model development, based on informatics and incorporation of empirical and experimental data. These are of a knowledge-based nature, and specifically incorporate information from the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD). A common problem for solubility prediction is the computational cost associated with accurate models. This issue is usually addressed by use of machine learning and regression models, such as the General Solubility Equation (GSE). These types of models are investigated and discussed in Chapter 3, where we evaluate the reliability of the GSE for a set of structures covering a large area of chemical space. We find that molecular descriptors relating to specific atom or functional group counts in the solute molecule almost always appear in improved regression models. In accordance with the findings of Chapter 3, in Chapter 4 we investigate whether radial distribution functions (RDFs) calculated for atoms (defined according to their immediate chemical environment) with water from organic hydrate crystal structures may give a good indication of interactions applicable to the solution phase, and justify this by comparison of our own RDFs to neutron diffraction data for water and ice. We then apply our RDFs to the theory of the Reference Interaction Site Model (RISM) in Chapter 5, and produce novel models for the calculation of Hydration Free Energies (HFEs).

Freshwater is essential for a functional society and the human well-being. However, it should not be taken for granted. Freshwater aquifers in coastal are subject to current and future risk of becoming saltwater contaminated – reaching a tipping point. Freshwater security on islands is vulnerable. The aim of this empirical study is to identify the effects of a 2-meter sea level rise and the current risk of well salinization at the Baltic Sea island of Öland, Sweden. A Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to conduct a quantitative risk assessment analysis. Natural and physical parameters affect the risk of intrusion into wells including hydrology, geomorphology, and climatology. Anthropogenic causes and climate change also add to the risk of salinization. However, they are not included in the quantitative study. The spatial distribution of the current risk is mapped in this study and can be used as a tool to identify wells at risk. Moreover, a future sea level rise has been visualized and show that 3% of all wells on the island will get directly inundated along with 5% of the total land area. Important land such as urban areas, nature reserves, and animal protection areas will get inundated including the loss of environmental and socio-economic values. A precautionary approach needs to be implemented in future planning since many wells are already at risk of salinization. The complexity of the problem is vast, and this study aims to fill the gaps in literature and previous research in a more multi-criterion way. Nevertheless, the political discussion urgently needs to address the topic and a mitigation and adaptation strategy must be on the agenda.

As coastal cities around the world identify and implement adaptations to sea level rise, they are faced with competing interests around what should be done and how to prioritize actions. Often, environmental problems--like confronting the challenge of sea level rise--are posed as requiring expert driven, technical solutions to identify and mitigate risks across the landscape. This framing, however, ignores the way in which diverse knowledge can help inform long-term planning horizons that address complex ways that sea level rise affects communities. The failure to integrate diverse knowledge into sea level rise adaptation can result in barriers to implementation and outcomes that can reproduce inequities. In environmental planning, knowledge integration challenges can stem from ambiguity around the construction of environmental risk knowledge, as well as institutional arrangements that inhibit diverse involvement. Ambiguity refers to a context in which there are different and sometimes conflicting views on how to understand the problem or system to be managed, for example, conflicts around what risks to measure and how to measure them. This manifests in the ways that different groups construct and use knowledge about risks. Often ignored in planning contexts and research on sea level rise adaptation, ambiguity--particularly around social risks--are critical to address, since they can determine whether diverse knowledge about risks are integrated or ignored in planning. This dissertation uses a case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida and is guided by the question: how do different groups understand risk within sea level rise, and what planning and governance factors influence the way diverse dimensions of risk are integrated into adaptation strategies? Findings from this case study suggest that baselines, projections, and the focus of risk rooted in an economic discourse based on short-term planning horizons and technical constructions of risk have more authority as compared with counter arguments around ecological and social risks. Recommendations include the need for transparent adaptation decisions and the inclusion of diverse stakeholders in the production of regional climate science, sea level rise assessments, and adaptation planning. A more integrated approach can better address diverse risks and facilitate long-term planning.

Currently, southern Louisiana faces extreme land loss that could reach an alarming rate of about one football sized swath of land every hour. The combined effect of land subsidence and predicted sea level rise threaten the culture and livelihood of the residents living in this region. As the most vulnerable coastal population in Louisiana, the communities of south Terrebonne Parish are called to adapt by accommodating, protecting, or retreating from the impacts of climate change. For effective preparation planning, the state of Louisiana needs to 1) understand the adaptation preferences and responses of these residents and 2) involve these vulnerable communities in adaptation related decision making. The study uses a survey-based methodology to analyze current adaptation preferences. Findings suggest that protection is the preferred adaptation response. The present study additionally uses participatory techniques to develop a land loss awareness mobile application to illustrate the importance and benefits of community collaboration.

En los últimos años el mapa asegurador del mercado español se ha visto modificado como consecuencia de la crisis financiera. Derivado del entorno de inestabilidad del mercado, el regulador europeo ha aprobado un nuevo marco legislativo que pretende garantizar la estabilidad financiera y la solvencia de las compañías aseguradoras a través del control de los riesgos a los que se exponen. En los distintos capítulos de esta tesis se analiza la forma en que el regulador pretende que las entidades garanticen su estabilidad, esto es, a través del proceso de fijación de los requerimientos de capital, y las herramientas con las cuales el regulador permite su obtención, es decir, el Modelo Estándar o un Modelo Interno. Se aborda la problemática de la estimación de los requerimientos de capital, las implicaciones de la utilización tanto del Modelo Estándar como de un Modelo Interno, así como el proceso de estimación de los parámetros necesarios para su implementación, con especial énfasis en la matriz de correlaciones. En esta tesis se analiza la problemática en la estimación delos requerimientos de capital que el regulador exige a las entidades. Por una parte se analiza exhaustivamente el Modelo Estándar para el riesgo de primas y reservas no vida. Se derivan las hipótesis estadísticas implícitas en la fórmula estándar con la finalidad de mejorar la comprensión sobre el modelo y poder realizar estimaciones de los parámetros de los que depende, y poder de este modo, adaptar la fórmula estándar al perfil de riesgo de las entidades. Mediante la determinación de la variable aleatoria implícita en la fórmula estándar se está en disposición, en particular, de realizar estimaciones de los coeficientes de correlación necesarios para realizar la agregación de requerimientos de distintas líneas de negocio. Esta cuestión resuelve el vacío que deja la Directiva a este respecto, es decir, la propuesta de un método para la estimación de los coeficientes de correlación y su actualización. Posteriormente, se propone un Modelo Interno comparable con el Modelo Estándar para el riesgo de primas y reservas no vida. El Modelo Interno está basado en la estimación de los requerimientos de capital mediante una medida de riesgo procedente de una simulación Monte Carlo de un vector de variables aleatorias que representan las distintas líneas de negocio. Para modelizar el comportamiento conjunto de las distintas líneas de negocio, es introducido la modelización a través de cópulas, en particular, la cópula Gaussiana y la cópula t-Student. Finalmente, se propone la estimación de la matriz de correlaciones, necesaria para realizar las estimaciones de capital tanto en el Modelo Estándar como en el Modelo Interno propuesto, mediante el uso de un Modelo de Credibilidad. Es introducido el uso de un modelo bayesiano como caso particular de Modelo de Credibilidad, que permite fusionar el criterio del regulador en referencia a la matriz de correlaciones que propone, con el criterio de la entidad basado en las estimaciones procedentes de la experiencia histórica.
The publication in the Official Journal of the European Union of the European Parliament and Council of 25 November 2009 Directive on the taking up and pursuit of the business of insurance and reinsurance, also known as Solvency II, 2009/138/EC, marks the official starting point in the implementation of legislative measures of risk management in insurance. While, prior, and there was another regulation, Solvency II has been a legislative change on the approach that insurers must hold in relation to the risks they face as a result of their activity. Solvency II establishes a common legal framework to apply over those insurers based in any of the member states of the European Union to access and exercise the insurance and reinsurance business. The Directive is structured on the three pillars principle. These pillars set the criteria and standards of quantitative and qualitative requirements that entities must undertake to ensure their solvency and financial stability. Pillar I set rules that determine the criteria for obtaining capital requirements that an entity must maintain over an annual time horizon, commensurate to the risk assumed by the entity, to ensure an acceptable level of solvency through the market consistent economic valuation of the balance sheet of an entity. Pillar I is aimed to determine the minimum financial requirements to ensure that the assets are sufficient in quantity and quality, to meet the liabilities under a certain time horizon. To do this, the assessment under Pillar I balance must be performed according to market criteria, i.e. both the valuation of assets and liabilities of the entity must be consistent with that which would result from the interaction of free market agents. On the one hand, the balance sheet is determined by the market value of the investments made by the entity. For those assets that by their illiquid nature, or for any other reason, there is no market value, the Directive introduces valuation standards. The valuation of the liabilities presents difficulties inherent in the insurance business as for example to determine the economic value of the contract obligations insured by entities. These have usually an uncertain amount as well as uncertain in the time of liquidation. Also, Pillar I determines the composition of the entities’ own funds, i.e., the asset structure that supports that part of the balance, in addition to the financial amounts (capital requirements) of legal character Directive establishes. Pillar I consider separately different levels of protection. The first level would be constituted by the market valuation of technical provisions, which should reflect an estimate consistent with the level of liabilities and risk margin. The second level would be determined by Pillar I solvency requirements. These requirements should reflect the risk and ensure the solvency of institutions. The Directive sets a minimum threshold of economic requirements under which the entity could not continue their business. Financial requirements of the first level of protection should reflect the obligations of the entity through insurance contracts undersigned. This capital is reflected in the valuation of technical provisions. The valuation of technical provisions for solvency II, must represent, on the one hand, the present value of the best estimate of future economic flows arising from contractual obligations (best estimate) and secondly, a risk margin (risk margin) to reflect the amount that an entity would have to pay to transfer the obligations arising from insurance contracts, net of the present value of the best estimate of future economic flows arising from obligations. Moreover, the objective of the economic requirements of the second level of protection is to cover any unexpected losses that an entity may suffer as a result of adverse unexpected fluctuations in claims. This part of the capital requirements directive is known as the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). As mentioned, the SCR has a lower bound determined by a threshold called Minimum Capital Solvency Requirement (MSCR), below which an entity could not continue operating. The Directive states that the SCR should be obtained by a model that reflects the risk profile of the entity, and that is appropriate based on the nature, scale and complexity of the risks assumed by the company. The model proposed by the regulator is called in the Directive as General Formula to calculate the Solvency Capital Requirement. Under Article 110 of the Directive, the Standard Model can be used by institutions using the parameters set in the Directive as market proxy, or can be adapted to the risk profile of each institution itself by estimating new parameters based on specific historical experience of the entity. There may be several reasons to make an insurer decides to estimate new parameters. One possible reason may arise from the overestimation of the proxys, which would lead to an SCR greater than that obtained with the use of specific parameters. Moreover, another reason for the estimation of the parameters could be determined by the fact that the structure of business of an insurance company does not adapt to that proposed by the regulator. The Directive also provides that under the competent authority’s previous approval, the SCR can be obtained using an internal model. This model cannot account for all or part of the risks facing the entity. In the latter case, the model is referred to in Directive as partial internal model. The requirements to be met by an internal model are related to implementation and monitoring standards, so those entities that choose to use an internal model, total or partial, for the calculation of the solvency capital requirements must justify their use. The Standard Model is a set of formulas and methodologies proposed by the regulator with which the insurer can get the amount corresponding to the SCR. An internal model is a procedure offered by the insurer that has the same objective and purposes than the Standard Model, i.e., obtaining capital requirements using a model that reflects the risk profile of the entity. The SCR, obtained with any of the models permitted by the regulator, must be calibrated in such a way that corresponds to the value at risk (VaR) of the entity’s own funds, at a one year horizon, calculated at a 99,5% confidence level. Pillar II describes the qualitative requirements that entities must comply and which result in those formal procedures and communication to the regulator. Pillar II of the Directive concerns those aspects relating the procedures of supervision and control by the regulator. Solvency II is defined as a policy of harmonization for entities operating in the states member of the European Union, so it is necessary that the quantitative aspects are accompanied by other qualitative aspects that achieve homogeneity of appropriate methods and monitoring and control tools to be used by local regulators of different States Member. These requirements also include the obligation for any entity to control risk management model, both quantifiable and non-quantifiable. This management model is known as Own Risk Solvency Assessment (ORSA). The ORSA is a communication tool that should serve two purposes. The first one should be used as an aid in the process of strategic decision making, therefore must be reviewed continuously when the risk profile of the entity changes significantly, incorporating strategic decisions. The second purpose must serve as a regulator tool of communication. The ORSA must project requirements in future years and justify deviations between projected and present requirements, whatever the model used for this aim. Thus, the model ORSA should be a calibration tool whatever the model chosen to estimate the SCR. Finally, Pillar III represents those measures intended to ensure the transparency and discipline in the insurance market, through a set of rules for communication of information on the financial position and solvency of financial institutions facing the local regulator, and the rules of communication and transparency of local regulators facing the European regulator. Pillar III sets the action to be taken by the regulator and the entities in the case of misalignments in fulfilling the requirements of the valuation rules of Pillar I and / or the requirements of Pillar II. Thus, the European regulator empowers local regulators to take action to ensure the standards imposed under Pillar I and II, and is authorized to take action on states that fail to comply with the requirements of Directive Communication and transparency.

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es estudiar la conexión entre el riesgo de capital sistemático de las empresas ubicadas en la industria del turismo y un conjunto de información dentro de la empresa y la información del mercado, incluida la confianza de los inversores. El propósito de la investigación es analizar la conexión entre la medición principal del riesgo y un conjunto de información entre los cuales se encuentra el sentimiento del inversor como una variable representativa de la línea de investigación de finanzas del comportamiento, que es un campo activo de hallazgos recientes que investiga el efecto en La valoración de activos financieros. Al comparar el poder de explicación del modelo CAPM estándar con los modelos actualizados con sentimiento, estos últimos pueden dar una mejor explicación de la dinámica de retorno de riesgo. Esta tesis investiga el papel que juega la información y el sentimiento del inversor en la valoración de activos y la medida de riesgo. Los artículos presentados a continuación se centran en la relación que surgió desde el punto de que un nivel de stock firme es un derivado no solo de un entorno racional fundamental sino que, al mismo tiempo, es parte de un ser mental humano, que refleja el sentimiento personal y las narrativas de grupo. Buscamos saber qué información explica el riesgo de capital con el fin de extraer esta información para estimar un patrón de comportamiento, especialmente para aquellas empresas que no figuran en la lista que no tienen beta. Nuestra investigación mostró que el tamaño y el crecimiento de la empresa, junto con tres indicadores de eficiencia empresarial, Precios de consumo y el índice Stoxx Europe 50 explican el riesgo de capital. La crisis financiera de 2008 no altera el comportamiento del modelo. En el segundo documento, analizamos 58 empresas en la industria del turismo de EE. UU. De un total de 72 empresas que especificaban sectores de Artes, Entretenimiento, Recreación y Alojamiento y Servicios de Alimentación. Los resultados muestran que el nivel de regresión entre el coeficiente de riesgo sistemático (β) y el sentimiento depende del período de sentimiento alto-bajo, es más fuerte durante el período de sentimiento alto y bajo y débil durante el período neutral. También encontramos que el período alto-bajo de sentimiento afecta de manera diferente a las compañías de diferentes grupos y las compañías afectadas por el sentimiento son compañías que pertenecen al grupo con bajo nivel de estabilidad financiera. En el tercer documento hicimos un estudio internacional de seis áreas económicas y analizamos dos grandes sectores de la industria turística: servicios de hotelería y entretenimiento y servicios de transporte de pasajeros. Se construyó la base de datos de 673 compañías y se investigó si el sentimiento del inversor y otra información podría explicar el riesgo sistemático. Confirmamos que el tamaño de la base de datos nos permite obtener un modelo estadístico con mayor poder explicativo y los resultados muestran que el sentimiento del inversor junto con una combinación de información contable y macroeconómica son variables explicativas de riesgo, excepto para EE. UU., Japón e India y para Los subsectores de Hoteles, Moteles y Líneas de Cruceros y Aerolíneas. El sentimiento del inversor muestra un signo negativo de relación con el riesgo y otras variables explicativas varían para cada sector y área. Nuestros hallazgos son muy útiles para la gestión de empresas turísticas en diferentes países, ya que brindan información que explica el riesgo de capital. Para facilitar una gestión empresarial eficiente y ayudar a cuantificar objetivamente el riesgo sin tener beta.
The main objective of this work is to study the connection between the systematic equity risk of companies located in the tourism industry and a set of information from inside of the company and the market information including investor sentiment. The purpose of the research is to analyze the connection between the main measurement of risk and a set of information among which is the investor sentiment as a representative variable of behavioral finance line of research, which is an active field of recent findings that investigates effect on the valuation of financial assets. Comparing the explaining power of the standard CAPM model with sentiment-updated models, the latter are able to give a better explanation of risk return dynamics. This thesis investigates the role that information and investor sentiment play in asset pricing and risk measure. Below presented papers are focused on the relationship that came from the point that a firm stock level is a derivative not only of a fundamental rational environment but at the same time is a part of a human mental being, reflexing personal sentiment and group narratives. We seek to know what information explain the equity risk in order to extract this information to estimate a pattern of behaviour, especially for those not listed companies don’t have beta. Our research showed that business size and growth along with three indicators of business efficiency, Consumer Prices and the Stoxx Europe 50 index explain the equity risk. The financial crisis of 2008 does not alter the behaviour of the model. In the second paper we analyzed 58 companies in US tourism industry of total set of 72 companies specifying sectors of Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Accommodation and Food Services. The results show that the level of regression between systematic risk coefficient (β) and sentiment is dependent on high-low period of sentiment, it is stronger during high and low sentiment period and weak during neutral. We also found that high-low period of sentiment affects differently on companies from different clusters and sentiment affected companies are companies belonging to the cluster with low level of financial stability. In the third paper we made an international study of six economic areas and analyzed two large sectors of the tourism industry - Hotel and Entertainment Services and Passenger Transportation Services. Database of 673 companies was constructed and we investigated whether the investor sentiment and other information could explain systematic risk. We confirmed that the size of the database allows us to obtain a statistical model with greater explanatory power and the results show that the investor sentiment together with a combination of accounting and macroeconomic information are risk explanatory variables, except for USA, Japan and India and for the subsectors of Hotels, Motels & Cruise Lines and Airlines. The investor sentiment shows a negative sign of relation to risk and other explanatory variables vary for each sector and area. Our findings are very useful for tourism enterprises management in different countries, it provides information which explain the equity risk.to facilitate efficient business management and help to objectively quantify the risk without having beta.

Denna studies syfte är att undersöka huruvida det finns ett samband mellan andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter och total risk i svenska onoterade aktiebolag. Tidigare forskning har riktats mot noterade aktiebolag och då huruvida det finns ett samband mellan andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter och företags finansiella- respektive rörelserisk. Dessa två komponenter utgör tillsammans total risk varför det ter sig intressant att undersöka hur denna påverkas av andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter. Utifrån detta formas studiens tre hypoteser, vilka är att det finns ett samband mellan andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter och total risk, respektive finansiell risk samt rörelserisk i ett svenskt onoterat aktiebolag. Studien genomförs i positivistisk tradition, och därmed utförs statistiska tester utifrån kvantitativ data. Detta för att kunna urskilja ett eventuellt samband mellan den beroende variabeln, total risk, och den oberoende variabeln andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter. Den empiriska datan samlas in via databasen Retriever, där information från onoterade aktiebolags årsredovisningar samlas in för bokslutsåret 2015.   Studiens resultat visar ett mycket svagt positivt samband mellan andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter och total risk- respektive finansiell risk samt rörelserisk. Följaktligen förkastas studiens samtliga nollhypoteser. Sambanden mellan beroende och oberoende variabel är dock mycket svaga, vilket gör att resultaten skiljer sig från en svensk studie på svenska noterade aktiebolag av Adams och Funk (2012). Studien lämnar bidraget att andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter inte har någon betydande inverkan på total risk i svenska onoterade aktiebolag.   Denna studie undersöker endast ett bokslutsår. Förslag till vidare forskning är därmed att undersöka en längre tidsperiod för att således jämföra flera bokslutsår med varandra. Studien finner att kontrollvariabeln, bolagets ålder, har störst inverkan i samtliga regressioner och ytterligare förslag till vidare forskning inom området är därmed att undersöka sambandet mellan bolagets ålder med de olika riskmåtten.
The aim of this study is to examine a possible correlation between the proportion of women on corporate boards and firm risk in an unlisted Swedish corporation. Recent studies have focused on listed companies, and whether there is a correlation between the proportion of women on corporate boards and financial risk respectively business risk. These two measures of risk together defines as firm risk. How women effect firm risk is therefore by interest to investigate further. This study is computed with a positivistic approach through statistical tests and analysis to discover an eventual correlation between the proportion of women on corporate boards and firm risk in an unlisted Swedish corporation. All empirical data is collected from the database Retriever The results of this study show that the proportion of women on corporate boards correlates with the firm, financial- and business risk correlates in Swedish unlisted corporations. Whether the results actually show a greater impact in practice can be further discussed. The contribution of this study is therefore that the gender diversification does not impact the firm risk in Swedish unlisted corporations. For future studies we suggest to do more research on how the time aspect impact the relation between women on corporate boards and firm risk. As a suggestion, the age of the corporations can be examined, since this factor had the greatest impact on the risk measures.

La presència d'adolescents jugant a l'espai públic de les ciutats s'ha vist reduïda de manera progressiva, al mateix temps que es construeix com a part d'un problema d'ordre públic la presència en el mateix de les persones joves. En paral·lel, el temps disponible per al joc lliure adolescent disminueix cada vegada més, ja que les seves activitats formatives s'allarguen més enllà de les aules de l'ensenyament obligatori. Aquesta recerca, realitzada en diverses zones de les àrees metropolitanes de Barcelona i Atenes, es pregunta: com es produeixen les experiències lúdiques com a àmbit de participació i construcció cultural adolescent i la seva dinàmica social al segle XXI? Per a contestar-la es realitza una etnografia seqüenciada en les àrees de l'esport urbà, el joc terapèutic i l'oci educatiu. Partint de dos conceptes clau clàssics com joventut global i producció cultural, els resultats de cada fase s'han comparat des dels eixos de classe, diversitat i espai. Aquest treball permet observar les condicions en les quals és fa possible la capacitat d'acció adolescent en la dimensió de les seves activitats lúdiques, a més d'analitzar la seva incidència social. Els resultats revelen com la relació mecànica entre el risc i el dèficit condueix a intervencions que se situen entre el modelat i la contenció, en línia amb la ficció meritocràtica i una competència creixent que pressiona, avalua i selecciona els adolescents en un context cultural neoliberal que accentua els efectes d'una societat totalment pedagogizada.
La presencia de adolescentes jugando en el espacio público de las ciudades se ha visto reducida de manera progresiva, al tiempo que se construye como parte de un problema de orden público la presencia en el mismo de las personas jóvenes. A su vez, el tiempo disponible para el juego libre adolescente disminuye cada vez más, ya que sus actividades formativas se alargan más allá de las aulas de la enseñanza obligatoria. Esta investigación, realizada en diversas zonas de las áreas metropolitanas de Barcelona y Atenas, se pregunta: ¿cómo se producen las experiencias de lo lúdico como ámbito de participación y construcción cultural adolescente y su dinámica social en el siglo XXI? Para contestarla se realiza una etnografía secuenciada en tres ámbitos destinados al deporte urbano, al juego terapéutico y al ocio educativo. Partiendo de dos conceptos clave clásicos como juventud global y producción cultural, los resultados de cada fase se han comparado desde los ejes de clase, diversidad y espacio. Este trabajo permite observar las condiciones en las que se da la capacidad de acción adolescente en la dimensión de sus actividades lúdicas, además de analizar su incidencia social. Los resultados revelan cómo la relación mecánica entre el riesgo y el déficit conduce a intervenciones que se sitúan entre el moldeado y la contención, en línea con la ficción meritocrática y una competencia creciente que presiona, evalúa y selecciona a los adolescentes en un contexto cultural neoliberal que acentúa los efectos de una sociedad totalmente pedagogizada.
The presence of adolescents playing in public spaces in cities has been progressively reduced, while the presence of youngsters is being built as part of a problem of public order. In parallel, the time available for adolescent free play is increasingly diminishing since their educational activities expand beyond the school hours of compulsory education. This research took place in different locations of the metropolitan area of Barcelona and Athens, and was guided by the following question: How are the experiences of play as a sphere of participation and cultural construction of adolescents and their social dynamics produced in the 21st century? To answer this question, a sequential ethnography in the areas of urban sport, therapeutic play and educational leisure has been carried out. Based on two key concepts such as global youth and cultural production, the results of each phase are compared through the axes of class, diversity, and space; allowing us to observe the conditions in which the capacity of adolescent action in the dimension of their leisure activities occurs, and to analyse their social impact. The findings reveal how the mechanical relationship between risk and deficit leads to interventions between moulding and containment, in line with the meritocratic fiction, as well as the growing competition that puts pressure, evaluates and selects adolescents in a neoliberal cultural context that emphasises the effects of a totally pedagogized society.

Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2013.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 63-64).
Temporal uncertainty arises when performing any activity in the natural world. When activities are composed into temporal plans, then, there is a risk of not meeting the plan requirements. Currently, we do not have quantitatively precise methods for assessing temporal risk of a plan. Existing methods that deal with temporal uncertainty either forgo probabilistic models or try to optimize a single objective, rather than satisfy multiple objectives. This thesis offers a method for evaluating whether a schedule exists that meets a set of temporal constraints, with acceptable risk of failure. Our key insight is to assume a form of risk allocation to each source of temporal uncertainty in our plan, such that we may reformulate the probabilistic plan into an STNU parameterized on the risk allocation. We show that the problem becomes a deterministic one of finding a risk allocation which implies a schedulable STNU within acceptable risk. By leveraging the principles behind STNU analysis, we derive conditions which encode this problem as a convex feasibility program over risk allocations. Furthermore, these conditions may be learned incrementally as temporal conflicts. Thus, to boost computational efficiency, we employ a generate-and-test approach to determine whether a schedule may be found.
by Andrew J. Wang.
M. Eng.

This thesis finds evidence of the outperformance of the risk parity (RP) strategies in comparison to the traditional equal-weighted portfolios. The empirical study focuses on backtesting the portfolio strategies by using two datasets, a long sample and a broad sample. The long sample data consists of U.S. common stocks listed in NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ as well as U.S. government bonds over January 1929 to December 2015. The broad sample consists of global multi-asset index data including stocks, bonds, credit, commodities, real estate and hedge funds over January 2002 to December 2015. Risk parity refers to the asset allocation strategy that diversifies by risk, not by dollars. As stocks are much more volatile than bonds, traditionally diversified portfolios such as equal-weighted portfolio or market capitalization-weighted portfolio are most likely dominated by risks raising from equity markets. An optimal RP portfolio consists of equal risk contribution between and within asset classes. Put simply, a RP investor overweights low risk assets and underweights high risk assets. The main objective of the thesis is to evaluate the performance of two RP strategies, the inverse volatility method and the equal risk contribution method, in comparison to the equal-weighted portfolios. As a RP portfolio typically has a heavy allocation in low risk assets, the strategy requires leverage to raise the expected return to desired levels. Hence, this thesis focuses on analysis of both strategies, leveraged and unleveraged RP portfolios. The main analysis is carried out in several phases including market friction adjusted and unadjusted analyses. In addition, the strategies are tested in different interest rate environments. The performance of the portfolios is measured by realized Sharpe ratios. The study also observes abnormal returns by using a simple regression model. The key findings of the study are as follows: The RP strategies outperform the traditional equal-weighted portfolios on risk-adjusted basis after adjustments for market frictions. The unleveraged RP portfolios deliver higher Sharpe ratios than leveraged portfolios. However, the leveraged RP portfolio still achieves a higher Sharpe ration in comparison to the equal-weighted portfolio. The RP strategies underperform when interest rates are rising moderately or sharply. The equal risk contribution method outperforms the inverse volatility method.

Aquesta tesi té la intenció de realitzar una contribució metodològica en el camp de la direcció estratègica, per mitjà de tres objectius: la revisió del concepte de risc ex post o realitzat per l'àmbit de la direcció estratègica; la concreció d'aquest concepte en una mesura de risc vàlida; i l'exploració de les possibilitats i l'interès de la descomposició del risc en diferents determinants que puguin explicar-ne la seva naturalesa.
El primer objectiu es du a terme prenent com a base el concepte intuïtiu de risc i revisant la literatura en els camps més afins, especialment en la teoria comportamental de la decisió i la direcció estratègica. L'anàlisi porta a formular el risc ex post d'una activitat com el grau en què no s'han assolit els objectius per a aquesta activitat. La concreció d'aquesta definició al camp de la direcció estratègica implica que els objectius han de portar a l'obtenció de l'avantatge competitiu sostenible, el que descobreix l'interès de realitzar la mesura del risc a curt termini, és a dir, estàticament, i a llarg termini, és a dir, dinàmicament, pel que es defineix una mesura de Risc Estàtic i una altra de Risc dinàmic, respectivament. En l'anàlisi apareixen quatre dimensions conceptuals bàsiques a incorporar en les mesures: sign dependence, relativa, longitudinal i path dependence. Addicionalment, la consideració de que els resultats puguin ser cardinals o ordinals justifica que es formulin les dues mesures anteriors per a resultats cardinals i, en segon lloc, per a resultats ordinals.
Les mesures de risc que es proposen sintetitzen els resultats ex post obtinguts en una mesura de centralitat relativa dels resultats, el Risc Estàtic, i una mesura de la tendència temporal dels resultats, el Risc Dinàmic. Aquesta proposta contrasta amb el plantejament tradicional dels models esperança-variància.
Les mesures desenvolupades s'avaluen amb un sistema de propietats conceptuals i tècniques que s'elaboren expressament en la tesi i que permeten demostrar el seu gra de validesa i el de les mesures existents en la literatura, destacant els problemes de validesa d'aquestes darreres. També es proporciona un exemple teòric il·lustratiu de les mesures proposades que dóna suport a l'avaluació realitzada amb el sistema de propietats.
Una contribució destacada d'aquesta tesi és la demostració de que les mesures de risc proposades permeten la descomposició additiva del risc si els resultats o diferencials de resultats es descomponen additivament.
Finalment, la tesi inclou una aplicació de les mesures de Risc Estàtic i Dinàmic cardinals, així com de la seva descomposició, a l'anàlisi de la rendibilitat del sector bancari espanyol, en el període 1987-1999. L'aplicació il·lustra la capacitat de les mesures proposades per a analitzar la manifestació de l'avantatge competitiu, la seva evolució i naturalesa econòmica.
En les conclusions es formulen possibles línees d'investigació futures.
The principal aim of this dissertation is to make a methodological contribution to the field of strategic management, by means of pursuing three objectives: the revision of the concept of ex post risk for strategic management; the implementation of such concept in a measure of risk with concept validity; and the exploration of the possibilities and significance of the decomposition of risk into different determinants which explain its nature.
The first objective is attained by considering every-day usage of risk and the existing research on the concept of risk in related literature, mainly in the fields of behavioural decision theory and strategic management. This revision leads to define risk ex post for an activity as the degree of failure in achieving the expected results for that activity. For the purposes of strategic management, the expected results must be aligned with the pursuit of sustainable competitive advantage. This, in turn, uncovers the importance of measuring short term and long term risk, providing the basis to propose the corresponding two measures: Static risk and Dynamic risk.
In contrast with the traditional mean-variance approach, static risk summarises the information contained in a time series of results in a measure of relative centrality, and Dynamic risk measures the time trend of results. As it is considered that relevant results can be ordinal or cardinal, Static and Dynamic risk are particularised for both types of results.
The revision of the concept of ex post risk for strategic management highlights the importance of four basic dimensions: sign dependence, relativity, longitudinal analysis and path dependence.Based on those dimensions and others found dispersed in literature, the thesis develops a system of axioms and properties to evaluate the concept and technical validity of risk measures. Traditional and proposed measures are confronted to that system to proof the degree of validity of the new measures and the failures of the traditional ones. A simulated example is given to illustrate the measures proposed and provide some support to the former evaluation.
An outstanding contribution of that thesis has been to prove that the proposed cardinal risk measures can be additively decomposed in determinants when results or results differentials are originally additively separable.
Finally, the thesis provides an empirical application of the cardinal Static and Dynamic risk, together with its decomposition, to the Spanish banking sector from 1987 through 1999. The application aims at illustrating the possibilities of the new measures to analyse ex post risk, its temporal dynamics and its economic nature.
In the last chapter, conclusions and further research possibilities are presented.

The interior of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) differs from passenger cars. Both the steering wheel and the occupant are positioned differently in a HGV and increases the risk of steering wheel rim impacts. Such impact scenarios are relatively unexplored compared to passenger car safety studies that are more prevalent within the field of injury biomechanics. The idea with using human body models (HBMs) is to complement current crash test dummies with biomechanical data. Furthermore, the biofidelity of a crash dummy for loading similar to a steering wheel rimimpact is relatively unstudied and especially to different rib levels. Therefore, the aim with this thesis was to evaluate HGV occupant thoracic response between THUMS v4.0 and Hybrid III (H3) during steering wheel rim impacts with respect to different rib levels (level 1-2, 3-4, 6-7, 7-8, 9-10) with regards to ribs, aorta, liver, and spleen. To the author’s best knowledge, use of local injury risk functions for thoracic injuries is fairly rare compared to the predominant usage of global injury criteria that mainly predicts the most commonthoracic injury risk, i.e. rib fractures. Therefore, local injury criteria using experimental test datahave been developed for the ribs and the organs. The measured parameters were chest deflectionand steering wheel to thorax contact force on a global level, whilst 1st principal Green-Lagrangestrains was assessed for the rib and the organ injury risk. The material models for the liver and the spleen were remodelled using an Ogden material model based on experimental stress-strain data to account for hyperelasticity. Rate-dependency was included by iteration of viscoelastic parameters. The contact modelling of the organs was changed from a sliding contact to a tied contact to minimize unrealistic contact separations during impact. The results support previous findings that H3 needs additional instrumentation to accurately register chest deflection for rib levels beyond its current range, namely at ribs 1-2, 7-8, and 9-10. For THUMS, the chest deflection were within reasonable values for the applied velocities, but there were no definite injury risk. Fact is, the global injury criteria might overpredict the AIS3 injury risk (rib fractures) for rib level 1-2, 7-8, and 9-10. The rib strains could not be correlated with the measured chest deflections. This was explained by the unique localized loading characterized by pure steering wheel rim impact that mainly affected the sternum and the rib cartilage while minimizing rib deformation. The organ strains indicate some risk of rupture where the spleen deforms the most at rib levels 3-4 and 6-7, and the liver and the aorta at rib levels 6-7 and 7-8. This study provides a framework for complementing H3 with THUMS for HGV occupant safety with emphasis on the importance of using local injury criteria for functional injury prediction, i.e. prediction of injury risk using parameters directly related to rib fracture or organ rupture. Local injury criteria are thus a powerful safety assessment tool as it is independent on exterior loading such as airbag, steering wheel hub, or seat belt loading. It was noticed that global injury criteria with very localized impacts such as rim impacts have not been studied and will affect rib fracture risk differently than what has been studied using airbag or seat belt restraints. However, improvements are needed to accurately predict thoracic injury risk at a material level by finding more data for the local injury risk functions. Conclusively, it is clear that Hybrid III has insufficient instrumentation and is in need of upgrades to register chest deflections at multiple rib levels. Furthermore, the following are needed: better understanding of global injury criteria specific for HGV occupant safety evaluation, more data for age-dependent (ribs) and rate-dependent (organs) injury risk functions, a tiebreak contact with tangential sliding for better organ kinematics during impacts, and improving the biofidelity of the material models using data from tissue level experiments.
Förarmiljön i lastbilar gentemot personbilar är annorlunda, i detta kontext med avseende på främst ratt- och förarposition som ökar risken för islag med rattkransen för lastbilsförare. Sådana islag är relativt outforskat jämfört med passiv säkerhet för personbilar inom skadebiomekaniken. Tanken bakom användning av humanmodeller är att komplettera nuvarande krockdockor med biomekanisk information. Dessutom är biofideliteten hos en krockdocka vid rattislag relativt okänt, speciellt vid olika revbensnivåer. Därför är målet med detta examensarbete att undersöka thoraxresponsen hos en lastbilsförare genom att använda THUMS v4.0 och Hybrid III (H3) under rattislag med avseende på revbensnivåer (nivå 1-2, 3-4, 6-7, 7-8, och 9-10) och revben, aorta, lever, och mjälte. Enligt författaren verkar användning av lokala riskfunktioner för thoraxskador relativt ostuderat jämfört med den övervägande användningen av globala riskfunktioner som huvudsakligen förutser den mest vanligt förekommande thoraxskadan, nämligen revbensfrakturer. Därför har lokala riskfunktioner skapats för revben och organ, baserat på experimentell data. Uppmätta parametrar var bröstinträngning och kontaktkraft mellan ratt och thorax på global nivå, medan första Green-Lagrange huvudtöjningen användes för att evaluera skaderisken för revben och organ. Materialmodeller för lever och mjälte ommodellerades baserat på experimentell spänning-töjningsdata med Ogdens materialmodell för att ta hänsyn till hyperelasticitet. Töjningshastighetsberoendet inkluderades genom att iterera fram viskoelastiska parametrar. Kontaktmodellering av organ gjordes genom att ändra från glidande kontakt till en låsande kontakt för att minimera orealistisk kontaktseparation under islagsfallen. Resultaten stödjer tidigare studier där H3 visat sig behöva ytterligare givare för att noggrannt kunna registrera bröstinträngning vid olika revbensnivåer bortom dess nuvarande räckvidd, nämligen vid revben 1-2, 7-8, och 9-10. Uppmätt bröstinträngning i THUMS var rimliga för hastighetsfallen men gav inte någon definitiv risk för skada. Faktum är att de globala riskfunktionerna kan överskatta AIS3 risken vid revben 1-2, 7-8, och 9-10. Revbenstöjningarna kunde inte korreleras med bröstinträngningarna. Detta kunde förklaras genom de unika lastfallen som karakteriseras av rena rattislag som främst påverkar sternum och revbensbrosk som i sin tur minimerar deformation av revben. Organtöjningarna indikerar på någon risk för ruptur där mjälten deformerar som mest vid revben 3-4 och 6-7, medan för både levern och aortan sker det vid revben 6-7 och 7-8. Denna studie presenterar ett sätt att komplettera H3 med THUMS inom passiv säkerhet för lastbilsförare med fokus på lokala riskfunktioner för funktionell skadeprediktering dvs. prediktering av skaderisken med hjälp av parametrar som är direkt relaterat till revbensfraktur eller organruptur. Lokala riskfunktioner utgör en kraftfull säkerhetsbedömning som är oberoende av externa lastfall som t.ex. airbag, rattcentrum, eller bälteslast. I denna studie noterades det att de globala riskkriterierna inte har undersökts med väldigt lokala islag som rattislagen utgör och kommer därför att påverka risken för revbensfraktur annorlunda gentemot vad som har studerat, t.ex. airbag eller bältelast. Däremot behövs det mer data för de lokala riskkriterierna för att kunna prediktera thoraxskaderisken med ökad noggrannhet. Avslutningsvis, det är tydligt att Hybrid III har otillräckligt med givare och behöver förbättras för att kunna registrera bröstinträngning vid flera revbensnivåer. Vidare behövs följande: bättre förståelse för globala riskfunktioner anpassat inom passiv säkerhet för lastbilsförare, mer data för åldersberoende (revben) och töjningshastighetsberoende (organ) riskfunktioner, en ”tiebreak” kontakt med tangientiell glidning för bättre organkinematik, och ökad biofidelitet av materialmodeller genom att använda data från vävnadsexperiment.

A construction project requires a multitude of people with different skills and interests and the coordination of a wide range of disparate, yet interrelated, activities. Such complexity is further compounded by the unique characteristics of a project and many other external uncertainties. As a result, construction is subject to more risk than other business activities. In a risky situation, individuals or organizations perceive the situation in their own ways and behave differently to meet their own interests. Many researchers have asserted that divergent risk attitudes are sources of mismatched risk perceptions and inconsistent behaviors among project participants in different organizations, which can disturb proactive and consistent organizational activities. The research on risk attitude has, therefore, been advocated to exploring ways to consistently arouse people‘s cognition, affection, and behavior among stakeholders. However, previous research has been a widely misunderstood concept and remains a fragmented focus in the construction field. Evidence on the construction of risk attitude and how it manifests itself is unavailable. To date, prior researchers have suffered from an issue-oriented focus that has resulted in simplified models by studying single level of antecedents of risk attitude and consequences of management performance, rather than multi-level. Moreover, previous studies only focused on the direct relationship between risk attitude and management performance instead of providing a profound conceptualization of the indirect relationship between risk attitude and management performance or empirically exploring risk attitude‘s antecedents and consequences. The current study seeks to bridge this research gap. Triangulation research is employed as an appropriate research methodology in which both qualitative and quantitative data collection are used to test the research propositions. The research plan draws upon ontology and methodological pluralism. By adopting the Critical Incident Technique (CIT), coupled with an intensive literature review, one can explore the manifestation of risk attitude and its antecedents by analyzing critical incidents derived from preliminary interviews. Cognitive Motivation Theory (CMT) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) provide rationales to combine a processed view of risk attitude and the antecedents and management performance of individuals and organizations into a multi-level model of risk attitude. Responses to a questionnaire survey of 239 individuals nested in 61organizations were analyzed with a blend of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) to establish and examine the hypothesized relationships in the theoretical model. To capture the practical manifestation of risk attitude and its influence on management performance, case studies of two ongoing construction projects were performed. The findings summarized from both qualitative and quantitative studies indicated that risk attitude diverged due to the multi-level influences of its antecedents on project participants, resulting in inconsistent risk perception and risk inclinations. Risk attitude has two levels of manifestation – an individual and organization level. Individual risk attitude manifests itself as cognition, affection, and behavioral inclination, while organizational risk attitude mainly shows up as managerial trust, formalization, an ambiguity of goals and objectives, and a merit system. The findings confirmed that motivated individuals tend to present more consistent risk attitude and be more willing to and capable of exhibiting good management performance. The motivation behind this study is beyond the traditional motivational means. It extends from internal motivation with its locus of control and self-efficacy to external motivation with its interpersonal exchanges, external controls, and observational learning. The risk attitudes of motivated people to evoke better management performance, especially in the process of integrating risk management into a safety management system and the outcome performance of a stakeholder‘s satisfaction and potential to organizations. The research attempts to advance risk attitude theory by re-conceptualizing the antecedents of risk attitude and the consequences of management performance make the underlying theorizing mechanism explicit and testable. This study also provides practical indications of concrete interventions by managers to make risk attitudes converge and then strengthen safety risk management. The thesis contributes to multi-level analysis in the management research field and differentiates the different levels of participants in construction projects. Methodological pluralism and blended qualitative and quantitative research methods will be addressed to demonstrate the different and complementary perspectives of research. Due to limited samples, the generalizability of the findings in the different project types or across other levels needs to be further verified.
published_or_final_version
Real Estate and Construction
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy

This thesis is an analysis of sovereign default using option pricing models. The first part of the thesis applies the structural credit risk models of Gapen, Gray, Lim and Xiao, (GGLX) and Karmann and Maltritz (KM) to 25 countries accounting for about 75% of global GDP. The GGLX model underestimates sovereign spread and hence the probability of default. This confirms one of the main criticisms of structural credit risk models when applied to corporate default. By contrast, the estimates produced by the KM are far too high; the estimated probability of default is almost one in some cases. The second part of the thesis estimates the default risk indicators using the GGLX model in conjunction a number of different assumptions about the value of sovereign assets. It also uses market values of sovereign spread, which thus becomes an input to the model rather than an output. These approaches have not been reported in the literature before. In addition, Ito's lemma is used derive the corresponding geometric Brownian motion for sovereign spread. Using the new approach, the implied probabilities of default are larger than those obtained using standard GGLX. The model also gives revised values for domestic currency liability and its volatility. These are larger than the values reported by national agencies, thus contributing to the explanation of why structural credit risk models underestimate real-world credit spreads and the risk of default. The outputs from the model also lead to the construction of balance sheet ratios, which contribute to information about the likelihood of sovereign default. Overall, the new model results in default rankings and associated measures which are significantly more realistic than those produced by the standard GGLX model.

This thesis studies the implications of risk spillover effects in the systemic risk regarding the financial institutions and the financial system. We study the risk spillovers from sovereign CDS market to financial CDS market and the systemic risk contributions of sovereign countries. We then extend the previous study to investigate the dynamics of sovereign risk spillovers to the sovereign bond market, sovereign CDS market, and the national banking sectors, and we examine the interdependence of these markets. Lastly, we study the implications of network interconnectedness of the financial institutions and its contributions to systemic risk. Our research provides deeper understanding regarding the systemic risk and risk spillovers, and offer practical empirical evidence regarding the regulation of financial institutions.

I denna rapport kommer det jämföras tre modeller inom tre olika metoder som är “Klassisk test teori”, “Itemrespons theory” och “Forward selection” för att undersöka ifall det är möjligt att minska antalet frågor ner tillcirka fyra frågor och ändå kunna prediktera de utfall som erhåller ingen risk i en enkät om spelproblematik medgod säkerhet. För varje metod så kommer det presenteras en modell med två frågor, en modell med fyra frågoroch slutligen en modell med sex frågor samt dess precision på hur väl de kan prediktera de med ingen riskkorrekt. Samtlig modellframtagning använder sig utav en träningsmängd utav datamaterialet och valideringensker på en testmängd, detta för att undvika överanpassning utav modeller. För att dessa metoder skall kunna prestera så bra som möjligt har en del databearbetning utförts så somatt hantera bortfall, extremvärden samt avgränsningar för att samtliga metoder skall fungera. Flera utav modellerna kan prediktera korrekt med över 90% säkerhet och slutgiltligen erhålls en modell inomforward selection metoden som med enbart fyra utav femton frågor kan prediktera 93,5% korrekt.

This thesis quantitatively examines the types of risk that households face, how they prepare for these risks, and the effect of these risks on inequality. The first substantive chapter reviews the evolution of inequality over 1978 to 2005 in the UK along several dimensions and serves as an introduction to subsequent chapters. Following the inequality surge in the 1980s, inequality generally rose more slowly in the 1990s on most measures. The second chapter seeks to explain a puzzling episode in the evolution of inequality in the late 1990s: consumption inequality rose while income inequality fell. I explain this episode by accounting for two features of the UK economy over the period: a house price boom and a sequence of redistributive reforms by the new Labour government. I conclude that asset price movements and government policies can have a noticeable effect on `permanent' (consumption) inequality and that the redistributive effect of the reforms was largely undone by the coincident house price boom. The third chapter uses panel data over 1991 to 2006 to estimate the transmission of income shocks through to consumption. Only around 50% of `permanent' income shocks are transmitted. This estimate reconciles two views of risk over the period: long-lasting income fluctuations, measured by panel data on incomes alone, were high, while consumption risk, measured by the growth in consumption inequality, was much lower. The results further indicate that such income `shocks' are either not fully permanent or are often foreseen by younger households. The fourth chapter theoretically examines the precautionary savings motive for consecutive income risks. In most cases (and particularly when facing permanent shocks) households can combine saving for near-term risks with saving for long-term risks. I term this saving `complementary'. However, in some interesting cases, the interaction of future risks ampli es the precautionary motive.

La present tesi és una aportació a el coneixement de nous factors de risc per al tumor testicular de cèl·lules germinals (TTCG). El TTCG presenta una etiologia multifactorial, atribuïble a un retard en la diferenciació dels gonocitos fetals. El TTCG és més freqüent en homes amb una espermatogènesi alterada, suggerint una possible etiopatogènia comuna. El cromosoma I conté gens essencials per a una correcta espermatogènesi, les regions de l'factor d'azoospèrmia (AZF). La regió AZF més dinàmica és la regió AZFc que presenta punts fràgils que predisposa a reordenaments. El reordenament parcial més rellevant des del punt de vista clínic de la regió AZFc és la deleció gr / gr. S'ha relacionat la delació gr / gr amb un major risc de desenvolupar un TTCG, però la falta d'informació sobre els paràmetres seminals dels pacients no ha permès d'aclarir si l'associació observada està relacionada amb l'espermatogènesi alterada o si és un factor de risc independent. A més, encara queda per establir si altres tipus de delecions i duplicacions de la regió AZFc presenten relació amb el TTCG. La primera part d'aquesta tesi s'enfoca en l'estudi dels reordenaments parcials de la regió AZFc al TTCG. S'han analitzat 497 pacients amb TTCG i 2030 controls sense TTCG. Un 3.8% dels pacients amb TTCG presentaven algun tipus de deleció parcial de la regió AZFc respecte a l'2.5% de el grup control (p = 0.078). La deleció parcial més freqüent va ser la deleció gr / gr, mentre que els altres tipus de delecions parcials de la regió AZFc van resultar ser molt rares. Segons el fenotip seminal, es va observar un major risc de TTCG en pacients normozoospérmicos portadors de delecions parcials de la regió AZFc respecte als controls normozoospérmicos. No hi va haver diferències significatives entre pacients i controls segons les duplicacions parcials de la regió AZFc. Es va mostrar que les alteracions en la dosi de el gen DAZ confereixen un major risc de TTCG. Aquests resultats confirmen que un dèficit de l'contingut gènic de la regió AZFc juga un paper important en la etiopatogènesi de l'TTCG. En particular, la deleció gr / gr confereix un risc significatiu per al desenvolupament de l'TTCG independentment dels paràmetres seminals. Els factors ambientals també estan involucrats en la etiopatogènesi de l'TTCG, especialment si interfereixen en un període específic de el desenvolupament testicular, en el denominat ""masculinization programming window"" (MPW). Un desequilibri hormonal en aquest període compromet a la correcta funció de les cèl·lules fetals de Sertoli i Leydig, originant la síndrome de disgenèsia testicular (SDT). La distància anogenital (DAG) és considerada un biomarcador de l'acció dels andrògens durant el MPW. La DAG més curta ha estat relacionada amb tots els components de l'SDT, excepte amb el TTCG. La segona part d'aquesta tesi valora l'associació entre la DAG i el TTCG. A més avalua el paper de l'polimorfisme CAG de el gen AR en el desenvolupament de l'TTCG i la DAG. Es van analitzar a 156 pacients amb TTCG i 110 controls sans normozoospérmicos. Es va observar una distància anopeneana (DAGap) i una distància anoescrotal (dagues) significativament més curta en els TTCG respecte als controls. Es van definir uns punt de tall (DAGap: 130mm; dagues: 53mm) que indiquen un major risc de TTCG en aquells individus que es trobin per sota d'aquests valors. No s'ha trobat relació entre el polimorfisme CAG i el TTCG o la longitud de la DAG. En conclusió, les dades revelen que els pacients amb una DAG més curta presenten un major risc de TTCG, recolzant la teoria sobre la influència de l'desequilibri androgènic durant el desenvolupament fetal en l'etiopatogènia de l'TTCG.
La presente tesis es una aportación al conocimiento de nuevos factores de riesgo para el tumor testicular de células germinales (TTCG). El TTCG presenta una etiología multifactorial, atribuible a un retraso en la diferenciación de los gonocitos fetales. El TTCG es más frecuente en varones con una espermatogénesis alterada, sugiriendo una posible etiopatogenia común. El cromosoma Y contiene genes esenciales para una correcta espermatogénesis, las regiones del factor de azoospermia (AZF). La región AZF más dinámica es la región AZFc que presenta puntos frágiles que predispone a reordenamientos. El reordenamiento parcial más relevante desde el punto de vista clínico de la región AZFc es la deleción gr/gr. Se ha relacionado la delación gr/gr con un mayor riesgo de desarrollar un TTCG, pero la falta de información sobre los parámetros seminales de los pacientes no ha permitido de clarificar si la asociación observada está relacionada con la espermatogénesis alterada o si es un factor de riesgo independiente. Además, aún queda por establecer si otros tipos de deleciones y duplicaciones de la región AZFc presentan relación con el TTCG. La primera parte de esta tesis se enfoca en el estudio de los reordenamientos parciales de la región AZFc en el TTCG. Se han analizado 497 pacientes con TTCG y 2030 controles sin TTCG. Un 3.8% de los pacientes con TTCG presentaban algún tipo de deleción parcial de la región AZFc respecto al 2.5% del grupo control (p= 0.078). La deleción parcial más frecuente fue la deleción gr/gr, mientras que los otros tipos de deleciones parciales de la región AZFc resultaron ser muy raras. Según el fenotipo seminal, se observó un mayor riesgo de TTCG en pacientes normozoospérmicos portadores de deleciones parciales de la región AZFc respecto a los controles normozoospérmicos. No hubo diferencias significativas entre pacientes y controles según las duplicaciones parciales de la región AZFc. Se mostró que las alteraciones en la dosis del gen DAZ confieren un mayor riesgo de TTCG. Estos resultados confirman que un déficit del contenido génico de la región AZFc juega un papel importante en la etiopatogénesis del TTCG. En particular, la deleción gr/gr confiere un riesgo significativo para el desarrollo del TTCG independientemente de los parámetros seminales. Los factores ambientales también están involucrados en la etiopatogénesis del TTCG, especialmente si interfieren en un periodo específico del desarrollo testicular, en el denominado "masculinization programming window" (MPW). Un desequilibrio hormonal en este periodo compromete la correcta función de las células fetales de Sertoli y Leydig, originando el síndrome de disgenesia testicular (SDT). La distancia anogenital (DAG) es considerada un biomarcador de la acción de los andrógenos durante el MPW. La DAG más corta ha sido relacionada con todos los componentes del SDT, excepto con el TTCG. La segunda parte de esta tesis valora la asociación entre la DAG y el TTCG. Además evalúa el papel del polimorfismo CAG del gen AR en el desarrollo del TTCG y la DAG. Se analizaron a 156 pacientes con TTCG y 110 controles sanos normozoospérmicos. Se observó una distancia anopeneana (DAGap) y una distancia anoescrotal (DAGas) significativamente más corta en los TTCG respecto a los controles. Se definieron unos punto de corte (DAGap: 130mm ;DAGas: 53mm) que indican un mayor riesgo de TTCG en aquellos individuos que se encuentren por debajo de estos valores. No se encontró relación entre el polimorfismo CAG y el TTCG o la longitud de la DAG. En conclusión, los datos revelan que los pacientes con una DAG más corta presentan un mayor riesgo de TTCG, apoyando la teoría sobre la influencia del desequilibrio androgénico durante el desarrollo fetal en la etiopatogenia del TTCG.
This thesis is a contribution to the knowledge of new risk factors for testicular germ cell tumor (TTCG). TTCG has a multifactorial etiology, attributable to a delay in the differentiation of fetal gonocytes. TTCG is more frequent in men with altered spermatogenesis, suggesting a possible common etiopathogenesis. The Y chromosome contains essential genes for correct spermatogenesis, the azoospermia factor (AZF) regions. The most dynamic AZF region is the AZFc region that presents fragile points that predispose to rearrangements. The most clinically relevant partial rearrangement of the AZFc region is the gr / gr deletion. gr / gr cheating has been associated with an increased risk of developing TTCG, but the lack of information on the seminal parameters of the patients has not made it possible to clarify whether the observed association is related to altered spermatogenesis or if it is a factor of independent risk. Furthermore, it remains to be established whether other types of deletions and duplications of the AZFc region are related to TTCG. The first part of this thesis focuses on the study of partial rearrangements of the AZFc region in the TTCG. 497 patients with TTCG and 2030 controls without TTCG have been analyzed. 3.8% of the patients with TTCG presented some type of partial deletion of the AZFc region compared to 2.5% of the control group (p = 0.078). The most frequent partial deletion was the gr / gr deletion, while the other types of partial deletions of the AZFc region were found to be very rare. According to the seminal phenotype, a higher risk of TTCG was observed in normozoospermic patients carrying partial deletions of the AZFc region compared to normozoospermic controls. There were no significant differences between patients and controls according to the partial duplications of the AZFc region. Alterations in the dose of the DAZ gene were shown to confer an increased risk These results confirm that a deficit in the gene content of the AZFc region plays an important role in the etiopathogenesis of TTCG. In particular, the gr / gr deletion confers a significant risk for the development of TTCG regardless of seminal parameters. Environmental factors are also involved in the aetiopathogenesis of TTCG, especially if they interfere in a specific period of testicular development, in the so-called "masculinization programming window" (MPW). A hormonal imbalance in this period compromises the correct function of the fetal Sertoli and Leydig cells, causing the testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS). The anogenital distance (DAG) is considered a biomarker of the action of androgens during MPW. The shorter DAG has been related to all components of the SDT, except the TTCG. The second part of this thesis assesses the association between the DAG and the TTCG. It also evaluates the role of the CAG polymorphism of the AR gene in the development of TTCG and DAG. 156 patients with TTCG and 110 healthy normozoospermic controls were analyzed. A significantly shorter anopeneal distance (DAGap) and anoscrotal distance (DAGas) were observed in TTCG compared to controls. Cut-off points were defined (DAGap: 130mm; DAGas: 53mm) that indicate a greater risk of TTCG in those individuals who are below these values. No relationship was found between the CAG polymorphism and the TTCG or the length of the DAG. In conclusion, the data reveal that patients with a shorter DAG have a higher risk of TTCG, supporting the theory about the influence of androgen imbalance during fetal development on the etiopathogenesis of TTCG.

Research supports interventions for high-risk juvenile offenders to reduce recidivism. Methods for assessing delinquent risk vary, however. Aggregate risk scores (i.e. number of risk factors) and specific risk profiles (i.e. types of risk factors) are both empirically supported techniques. This study compared aggregate scores versus profiles for predicting measures of criminal severity among detained adolescents (n=292). Twenty-four risk factors from the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) were summed to calculate aggregate scores. Using latent class analysis (LCA), profiles were identified based on scores from the following theoretically important SAVRY risk factors: Risk Taking/Impulsivity, Anger Management Problems, Low Empathy/Remorse (CU traits), and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Difficulties. LCA identified one low-risk profile, plus two high-risk profiles differentiated by levels of CU traits. Aggregate scores significantly predicted four out of six criminal severity indicators, while profiles failed to predict any measures. Results support aggregate scores over profiles for assessing delinquent severity.

he subject of this thesis is ethical aspects of decision-making concerning social risks. It is argued that a model for risk management must acknowledge several ethical aspects and, most crucial among these, the individual’s right not to be unfairly exposed to risks. Article I takes as its starting point the demand frequently expressed in the risk literature for consistent risk management. It is maintained that a model focusing on cost-benefit analysis does not respect the rights of the individual. Two alternative models are outlined. They evolve around the separateness of individuals, rights, and fair risk taking. It is claimed that a model that focuses on a fair procedure for risk decisions seems most fruitful to develop. Article II discusses the NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) conflict. The ethical premises behind the negative characterization of the NIMBY concept are investigated. It is argued that a collective weighing of risks and benefits ignores individuals’ rights not to be unfairly exposed to risks in siting scenarios. Article III presents a three-party model tool for ethical risk analysis. The focus in such analysis is a discussion of three parties that are involved in risk decisions: the risk-exposed, the beneficiary, and the decision-maker. Seven crucial ethical questions are discerned by combining these parties pairwise. Article IV discusses a model for procedural justice for risk decisions. Two theories of deliberative democracy are explored. The first focuses on a hypothetical contract, the second argues for the actual inclusion of affected parties. It is maintained that hypothetical reasoning should mainly serve as a guide concerning risk issues that affect people who cannot be included in the decision-making process. Otherwise an interactive dialogical reasoning is to be preferred. Article V explores the claim that there are no real, objective risks – only subjective descriptions of them. It is argued that even though every risk can be described in different ways, involve value judgements and emotions, the ideal of objectivity should not be abandoned.
QC 20100714

This thesis seeks to establish a methodology to reveal whether the risk appetite held by investors is dependent on the macroeconomic environment and, if present, to quantify this dependency. To do so a generic model is built and a case study is carried out with data from DnBNOR. The available data consists of the daily profit and losses together with the number and volume of transactions made in a currency portfolio owned by DnBNOR and some selected timeseries on exchange rates, all against NOK. Also, timeseries on the gross national product and consumer price index are collected from Statistics Norway. In the process of building the model, the thesis sets out the theoretical foundation for different risk measurement concepts and gives a presentation of the theory on business cycles as this is used to classify and measure the macroeconomic environment. The model is built with a Bayesian approach and implemented in WinBUGS. The use of Bayesian statistics is motivated by different time resolution of the data; some of the data is observed every day while other parts are observed each quarter. The thesis' main idea is to decompose the relevant part of the economy in one microeconomic and one macroeconomic state. The microeconomic state is unique for each day while the macroeconomic state accounts for one quarter; together they give the expected risk appetite for each day. In this way the impact from the macroeconomic state is quantified and the results show that the macroeconomic state is statistically significant for the risk appetite. As this is a case study one needs more data and research before any universal valid conclusions can be made.

Despite being a middle income economy, Mexico typifies the situation of many low-income countries for the nearly 23 million rural Mexicans living in poverty. Rural households in Mexico live in settings characterized by multiple risks which threaten their livelihoods and impact negatively on their welfare. However, they have not responded passively to the deteriorating situation in the countryside and have developed strategies to cope with hardship. The purpose of this research is to investigate the interconnections between this risky environment, the realization of shocks and the risk management and coping mechanisms available to households and its members. Using a mixed methods approach, the thesis combines qualitative and quantitative analysis. Primary data was collected using semi-structured interviews and a survey designed to capture, in detail, issues related to risk, shocks and risk coping strategies. Secondary data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) was used to test for risk sharing across and within households. Overall, our results show that idiosyncratic and covariate shocks have a negative impact on consumption suggesting that insurance is incomplete across and more importantly, within households. However, households and its members use a portfolio of coping strategies depending on the type of shock. Informal mechanisms in the form of savings, borrowing, transfers, and labour supply adjustments play an important role in consumption smoothing. This thesis makes two important contributions. First, it complements the literature on risk and coping strategies by examining the mechanisms for dealing with shocks and their accessibility to the household. Second, empirical evidence on the negative effects of shocks and the effectiveness of risk coping strategies enhances our understanding of the factors that increase vulnerability to poverty of rural households. This information contributes to the design and implementation of social protection programmes to facilitate the identification of those in need and reach the intended beneficiaries.

In this thesis we have a review of the critical issues of CVA/DVA/FVA pricing framework, provide detailed economic interpretations of these xVA terms and present empirical studies on DVA hedging practice in the marketplace and a new approach to hedge DVAs. The economic drivers and implications of central clearing and initial margins on derivatives are addressed as well.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the predictability of hedge fund performance by using survival risk and liquidity risk analyses. Institutional investors are interested in long-run investments in the hedge fund industry and the high liquidation rate in the hedge fund industry brings significant risk to their investors. This research not only estimates the relationship between hedge fund characteristics and failure risk, but also examines the relationship between hedge fund survival risk, liquidity risk and their relative performance. This thesis is relevant to both researchers and practitioners in exploring a tangible analysis of hedge fund performance. The sample of this study derives from the TASS database from January 1984 to July 2014. The sampling time period covers the Asian crisis in 1997, the Russian crisis in 1998, the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US in 2007 and the subsequent credit crunch. The original database contains 14,031 hedge funds for this period, of which 6,505 are live funds and 7,526 are liquidated funds. The first empirical chapter estimates the predictability of hedge fund performance by use of a semi-parametric procedure. The results suggest that hedge fund monthly returns are predictable with proper identification of fund failure. The identification of fund failure can extract funds that are liquidated because of poor performance. The empirical evidence suggests that fund failure risk has strong explanatory power regarding hedge fund performance The second empirical chapter estimates the predictability of hedge fund performance by using investor-induced liquidity. It suggests that hedge fund liquidity risk derived from investors is an important factor of hedge fund performance analysis. The result also confirms that investor-induced liquidity in the more recent past has more explanatory power regarding its post-performance. Moreover, incubation bias could influence the predictability of hedge fund performance significantly. The result from fund performance shows that the fire sale problem was more significant in the recent financial crisis period but not significant in a normal period. The last empirical chapter investigates the predictability of hedge fund performance by using a combined prediction model. The result indicates that a model combining survival risk and liquidity risk exhibits more detail and performs better than using a prediction model with a single dimension. The result also indicates that incubation bias influences the predictability of hedge fund performance. Moreover, more recent data influences the predictability of hedge fund performance more significantly. On the other hand, long distance past data can provide a more significant result in estimation of covariates by using the Cox proportional hazard model. It is helpful to investigate the interactions between the risk of hedge fund characteristics and their performance practically.

Orientador: Luis Enrique Aguilar
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Educação
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Mestrado

The aim of this thesis is to study risk factor based investing and test how well MSCI constructs their risk factor based indices. Risk factor based investing has gained a lot of media exposure in the recent years and “Smart Beta” products are becoming more popular. Blackrock estimated that there are more than 700 exchange traded products available and they have over $ 529 billion in assets under management. Risk factor investing aims to harvest the risk premia associated with factors like size, momentum and value. I tested whether MSCI is able to provide higher Sharpe ratios for higher risk exposure indices and how much they deviated from the parent index of MSCI World. I used the Ledoit & Wolf bootstrap inference test to find out whether the Sharpe ratios of high exposure and high capacity indices differ from each other. Furthermore, I tested how well the Fama & French Three Factor-model with the addition of Carhart momentum factor could explain the returns of MSCI’s risk factor indices. I also constructed different risk factor portfolios using risk-parity methods to see whether it is possible to enhance the returns of risk factor indices by combining them. The main results and conclusions of this thesis were that risk factor investing can provide excess returns. These excess returns are readily available by investing in MSCI’s risk factor indices. Another key finding was that by utilizing risk-parity methods an investor can achieve excess returns over an equally weighted risk factor portfolio and over the MSCI’s own Diversified Mix index. Furthermore, even though MSCI is the world leader in index creation, their way of creating indices doesn’t seem to be very efficient and it would be beneficial to analyse other index providers, too. The data used in this thesis were gathered from “MSCI’s end of day index data search”. The data consists of six risk factor indices from developed countries. The price data ranged from November 1998 to August 2015. For the Ledoit & Wolf test I gathered four high capacity indices and four high exposure indices from the same time period. The proxies for academic factors were provided by Kenneth French on his website.

Risk budgeting, in contrast to conventional portfolio management strategies, is all about distributing the risk between holdings in a portfolio. The risk in risk budgeting is traditionally measured in terms of volatility and a Gaussian distribution is commonly utilized for modeling return data. In this thesis, these conventions are challenged by introducing different risk measures, focusing on tail risk, and other probability distributions for modeling returns. Two models for forming risk budgeting portfolios that acknowledge tail risk were chosen. Both these models were based on CVaR as a risk measure, in line with what previous researchers have used. The first model modeled returns with their empirical distribution and the second with a Gaussian mixture model. The performance of these models was thereafter evaluated. Here, a diverse set of asset classes, several risk budgets, and risk targets were used to form portfolios. Based on the performance, measured in risk-adjusted returns, it was clear that the models that took tail risk into account in general had superior performance in relation to the standard model. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the superiority was significantly higher for portfolios that constituted of mainly high-risk assets than for portfolios with more low-risk assets and also that the superior performance did not hold in all time periods considered. It was also clear that the model that used the empirical distribution to model returns performed better than the model based on an assumption of returns belonging to the Gaussian mixture model when the portfolio consisted of more assets with heavier tails.
Jämfört med konventionella portföljhanteringsstrategier handlar riskbudgetering mer om att fördela risken mellan innehav i en portfölj. Risken i riskbudgetering mäts traditionellt med avseende på volatilitet och en Gaussisk fördelning används normalt för att modellera avkastningsdata. I den här avhandlingen anlyseras andra modeller som istället fokuserar på svansrisk genom att införa andra riskmått och genom att använda andra sannolikhetsfördelningar för modellering av avkastningsdata. Två modeller för att konstruera riskbudgeteringsportföljer som tar hänsyn till svansrisk har analyserats i den här avhandlingen. Båda dessa modeller använde sig av CVaR som ett riskmått, i linje med vad tidigare forskare har använt. Den första modellen modellerade avkastningar med den empiriska fördelningen och den andra modellen med en Gaussisk blandningsmodell. Därefter utvärderades hur de olika modellerna presterade. Här användes en mångfald av tillgångsklasser, flera riskbudgetar och riskmål för att bilda portföljerna. Baserat på prestanda, mätt i termer av riskjusterad avkastning, var det tydligt att de modeller som tog hänsyn till svansrisk generellt presterade bättre än den konventionella modellen. Det bör emellertid noteras att för portföljer som huvudsakligen bestod av tillgångar med låg risk så var detta resultat mindre signifikant och även att resultatet inte gällde för alla tidsperioder som analyserades. Det var också tydligt att modellen som använde den empiriska fördelningen för att modellera avkastningsdata fungerade bättre än den Gaussiska blandningsmodellen när portföljen till större del bestod av tillgångar med tyngre svansar.