Academic literature on the topic 'River flow time series'

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Journal articles on the topic "River flow time series"

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Samsudin, R., P. Saad, and A. Shabri. "River flow time series using least squares support vector machines." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 6 (2011): 1835–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1835-2011.

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Abstract. This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model known as GLSSVM, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables which work as the time series forecasting for the LSSVM model. Monthly river flow data from two stations, the Selangor and Bernam rivers in Selangor state of Peninsular Malaysia were taken into consideration in the development of this hybrid model. The performance of this model was compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models,
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Nigam, Rashmi, Sohail Bux, Sudhir Nigam, K. R. Pardasani, S. K. Mittal, and Ruhi Haque. "Time series modeling and forecast of river flow." Current World Environment 4, no. 1 (2009): 79–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/cwe.4.1.11.

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Nazir, Hafiza Mamona, Ijaz Hussain, Ishfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Faisal, and Ibrahim M. Almanjahie. "An improved framework to predict river flow time series data." PeerJ 7 (July 1, 2019): e7183. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7183.

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Due to non-stationary and noise characteristics of river flow time series data, some pre-processing methods are adopted to address the multi-scale and noise complexity. In this paper, we proposed an improved framework comprising Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Empirical Bayesian Threshold (CEEMDAN-EBT). The CEEMDAN-EBT is employed to decompose non-stationary river flow time series data into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). The derived IMFs are divided into two parts; noise-dominant IMFs and noise-free IMFs. Firstly, the noise-dominant IMFs are denoised using
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Hutton, Jane L. "Non-negative time series models for dry river flow." Journal of Applied Probability 27, no. 1 (1990): 171–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3214604.

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Non-negative time series which are first-order autoregressive with a mixed exponential innovation process are studied. Properties and approximate marginal distributions for such series are found. Modifications to include exact zeroes and to increase variability so that the time series is a more realistic model of rivers which are dry for part of the year are discussed.
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Hutton, Jane L. "Non-negative time series models for dry river flow." Journal of Applied Probability 27, no. 01 (1990): 171–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200038511.

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Non-negative time series which are first-order autoregressive with a mixed exponential innovation process are studied. Properties and approximate marginal distributions for such series are found. Modifications to include exact zeroes and to increase variability so that the time series is a more realistic model of rivers which are dry for part of the year are discussed.
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PORPORATO, AMILCARE, and LUCA RIDOLFI. "Detecting determinism and nonlinearity in river-flow time series." Hydrological Sciences Journal 48, no. 5 (2003): 763–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.5.763.51457.

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Krishna, Budu, Yellamelli Ramji Satyaji Rao, and Purna Chandra Nayak. "Wavelet neural network model for river flow time series." Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management 165, no. 8 (2012): 425–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/wama.10.00092.

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Bordignon, S., and F. Lisi. "Nonlinear analysis and prediction of river flow time series." Environmetrics 11, no. 4 (2000): 463–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/1099-095x(200007/08)11:4<463::aid-env429>3.0.co;2-#.

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Đurin, Bojan, Mirna Raič, Petra Sušilović, and Hossein Banejad. "Analysis of homogeneity and isotropy of the flow in the watercourses by applying the RAPS and IPTA methods." Advances in Civil and Architectural Engineering 15, no. 29 (2024): 67–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.13167/2024.29.5.

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Due to the frequent climatic changes occurring worldwide, which are related to extreme meteorological parameters as well as human activities, it is obvious that these influence the flow regimes of rivers. River flow is the most important factor determining the hydrological regime of any river. This has a substantial influence on the water resources and the environment surrounding the river. Hydrotechnical structures are also dimensioned on the basis of the flow as the primary input parameter. The flow conditions have different properties and correlations with the material of the river bed. In
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Ahmad, Hassan Syed, and Nazia Munawar. "Impact Assessment of Hydroclimatic and Stochastic Variations on Water Stress of Jhelum River Flow Forecast." International Journal of Sciences Volume 8, no. 2019-06 (2019): 80–90. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3350763.

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The hydrological system of a country significantly influences the ecological, agricultural and consequently the economic structure. Since, the accessibility of water resources has governed the power generation sector and agronomic establishments of the region like Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan is sensitive in climatic variation and faces gradually higher threats regarding rainfall variability, floods and prolonged droughts. Sometimes, these climate change impact embedded with the high frequency and strength of extreme events caused by global warming. These extreme situations occur mostly in the
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "River flow time series"

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Batten, Douglas James. "Nonlinear time series modeling of some Canadian river flow data." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ54860.pdf.

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Imam, Bisher 1960. "Evaluation of disaggregation model in arid land stream flow generation." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/277033.

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A Disaggregation model was tested for arid land stream flow generating. The test was performed on data from Black River, near Fort Apache, Arizona. The model was tested in terms of preserving the relevant historical statistics on both monthly and daily levels, the monthly time series were disaggregated to a random observation of their daily components and the daily components were then reaggregated to yield monthly values. A computer model (DSGN) was developed to perform the model implementation. The model was written and executed on the Macintosh plus personal computer Data from two months we
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Briens, Lauren Anne. "Identification of flow regimes in multiphase reactors by time series analysis." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0018/NQ58396.pdf.

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Reynolds, Ben Christopher. "Neodymium and lead isotope time series from Atlantic ferromanganese crusts." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.342540.

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Powell, Sian M. "River basin models for operational forecasting of flow in real-time." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.511391.

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This thesis examines the potential role of transfer function models in the real-time forecasting of the rainfall-runoff and flow routing processes. The theory of the transfer function model structure and the recursive least-squares estimator is described. The use of a sampling rule to reduce the order of large transfer function models is discussed. Traditional sampling theories and control engineering sampling rules are examined. An hydrological sampling rule is developed and tested, with the conclusion that accurate and parsimonious transfer function models can be calibrated for most of the h
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Tsang, Fan Cheong. "Advances in flood forecasting using radar rainfalls and time-series analysis." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.481184.

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This thesis reports the use of a time-series analysis approach to study the catchment hydrological system of the River Ribble. Rain gauge records, radar rainfall estimates and flow data are used in the analysis. The preliminary study consists of the flow forecasting at Reedyford, Pendle Water (82 km2). Flow forecasts generated from the rain gauge records are better than the radar rainfall estimates over this small catchment. However, the catchment response to rainfall is quick and no clear advantages in extending the lead-time of the forecast can be introduced by using an artificial time delay
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Jeong, Seongsu. "Time Series Reconstruction of Surface Flow Velocity on Marine-terminating Outlet Glaciers." The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1437602064.

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Chance, Eric Wilson. "Irrigator Responses to Changes in Water Availability in Idaho's Snake River Plain." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/78361.

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Understanding irrigator responses to previous changes in water availability is critical to building effective institutions that allow for efficient and resilient management of water resources in the face of potentially increasing scarcity due to climate change. Using remote sensing data, I examined irrigator responses to seasonal changes in water availability in Idaho's Snake River Plain over the past 33 years. Google Earth Engine's high performance cloud computing and big data processing capabilities were used to compare the performance of three spectral indices, three compositing algorithms
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Allen, Jake. "Comparison of Time Series and Functional Data Analysis for the Study of Seasonality." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2011. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/1349.

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Classical time series analysis has well known methods for the study of seasonality. A more recent method of functional data analysis has proposed phase-plane plots for the representation of each year of a time series. However, the study of seasonality within functional data analysis has not been explored extensively. Time series analysis is first introduced, followed by phase-plane plot analysis, and then compared by looking at the insight that both methods offer particularly with respect to the seasonal behavior of a variable. Also, the possible combination of both approaches is explored, spe
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Darwish, Amena. "Optimized material flow using unsupervised time series clustering : An experimental study on the just in time supermarket for Volvo powertrain production Skövde." Thesis, Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för informationsteknologi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-17530.

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Machine learning has achieved remarkable performance in many domains, now it promising to solve manufacturing problems — a new ongoing trend of using machine learning in industrial applications. Dealing with the material order demand in manufacturing as time-series sequences, making unsupervised time-series clustering possible to apply. This study aims to evaluate different time-series clustering approaches, algorithms, and distance measures in material flow data. Three different approaches are evaluated; statistical clustering approaches; raw based and shape-based approaches and at last featu
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Books on the topic "River flow time series"

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National Institue of Hydrology (India), ed. Time series analysis of spring flow. National Institute of Hydrology, 1994.

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Karioti, Vassiliki. Time series analysis of peak exploratory flow. UMIST, 1997.

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Svensson, Cecilia. Trends in flood and low flow hydrological time series: Report. World Meteorological Organization, 2004.

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Powell, Sia n. M. River basin models for operational forecasting of flow in real-time. Universityof Birmingham, 1985.

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W, Kundzewicz Zbigniew, Unesco, World Meteorological Organization, and World Climate Programme, eds. Detection of change in world-wide hydrological time series of maximum annual flow. World Meteorological Organization, 2004.

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A, Leake S., and Geological Survey (U.S.), eds. Documentation for HYDMOD: A program for extracting and processing time-series data from the U.S. Geological Survey's modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model. U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 1999.

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T, Papageorgiou Demetrios, Smyrlis Yiorgos S, and Institute for Computer Applications in Science and Engineering., eds. Nonlinear stability of oscillatory core-annular flow: A generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation with time periodic coefficients. Institute for Computer Applications in Science and Engineering, NASA Langley Research Center, 1994.

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Harris, Keith. Flow River Flow: Saul Trader Series 3. Independently Published, 2019.

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Whitman, Everlee. Time for Everything Series: A Living River Ranch Romance. Independently Published, 2020.

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Cole, James B., and Saswatee Banerjee. Computing the Flow of Light: Nonstandard FDTD Methodologies for Photonics Design. SPIE, 2017.

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Book chapters on the topic "River flow time series"

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Young, Peter C. "Time-Series Methods and Recursive Estimation in Hydrological Systems Analysis." In River Flow Modelling and Forecasting. Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4536-4_6.

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Machiwal, Deepesh, and Madan Kumar Jha. "Analysis of Trends in Low-Flow Time Series of Canadian Rivers." In Hydrologic Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice. Springer Netherlands, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1861-6_10.

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Huntley, David, Drew Rotheram-Clarke, Kelvin Sattler, and David Elwood. "Surficial Geology and Geomorphology of the North Slide, Thompson River Valley, British Columbia, Canada: Application of Fundamental Geoscience Information to Interpretations of Geospatial Monitoring Results." In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44296-4_10.

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AbstractOur study focuses on a slow-moving landslide in the Thompson River valley, south-central British Columbia, Canada, that has posed a hazard to the national railway transportation corridor since 1880. Real-time kinematic global navigation satellite systems, unoccupied aerial vehicles, and satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry time-series show significant displacement encroaching on railway infrastructure. In this paper, geospatial relationships between landslide distribution and specific terrain features, and the environmental conditions triggering instability are determined
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Alvarez, T., R. Aleixo, S. V. Mendes, S. Amaral, T. Viseu, and R. M. L. Ferreira. "Frozen in time: Continuous measurements in a dam breach flow." In River Flow 2022. CRC Press, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003323037-68.

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Négyesi, K., E. D. Nagy, G. Barbero, G. Petaccia, C. Costanzo, and P. Costabile. "Lag time predictions using characteristic times deduced by the 2D shallow water equations at basin-scale." In River Flow 2022. CRC Press, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003323037-133.

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Watanabe, K., Y. Minami, M. Iguchi, and I. Fujita. "Robust and accurate river flow measurement by Space-Time Image Velocimetry (STIV) with improved deep learning technique." In River Flow 2022. CRC Press, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003323037-21.

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Fleming, G. "Case Studies on Real-Time River Flow Forecasting." In River Flow Modelling and Forecasting. Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4536-4_13.

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Weiler, Simon. "Time series analysis." In Dynamics of Cross-Border Flow-Performance Relationships. Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-08154-6_6.

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O’Connell, P. E., G. P. Brunsdon, D. W. Reed, and P. G. Whitehead. "Case Studies in Real-Time Hydrological Forecasting From the UK." In River Flow Modelling and Forecasting. Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4536-4_8.

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Bauduin, Christophe M. H., and Christinus J. B. Moes. "Time dependent groundwater flow under river embankments." In Coastal Lowlands. Springer Netherlands, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1064-0_8.

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Conference papers on the topic "River flow time series"

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Bojilova, Elena, Borislav Vuchkov, Maya Rankova, Plamen Angelov, and Radoslava Ivanova. "ABOUT THE APPLICABILITY OF ECOLOGICAL FLOW METHODOLOGY FOR PILOT DRAINAGE AREAS IN DANUBE RIVER BASIN DIRECTORATE IN BULGARIA." In 24th SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2024. STEF92 Technology, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2024/3.1/s12.02.

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The research uses monthly water flow in river watersheds within Danube�s river basin � Ogosta, Iskar, Yantra and Rusenski Lom rivers, as pilot basins. The water flow indicators describe river flow regime and hydrological streamflow characteristics. Our article describes the determination of environmental flow limits on surface water abstractions in Bulgaria. Monthly river flow is characterized by annual variability due to climate factors and anthropogenic impacts. Furthermore information from hydrometric stations often cannot be used directly and the important tasks of hydrological research is
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Ye, Jiarui, Bo Zhao, and Derong Liu. "Temporal Normalization Flow for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting." In 2024 IEEE 22nd International Conference on Industrial Informatics (INDIN). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/indin58382.2024.10774257.

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Szymkowski, Maciej, Włodzimierz Woźniak, and Bartosz Jura. "Time series for rail passengers flow prediction: a survey." In 2024 28th International Conference on Methods and Models in Automation and Robotics (MMAR). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mmar62187.2024.10680773.

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Li, Ziwei, Bingjie Liang, Yi Chen, Wen Ge, Xingran Deng, and Jianzhong Guo. "Analysis of river morphology change in Zhengzhou reach of the Yellow River based on long time series remote sensing images." In Second International Conference on Remote Sensing, Mapping, and Geographic Information Systems (RSMG 2024), edited by Bin Zou and Yaoping Cui. SPIE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.3048634.

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Barbariol, Tommaso, Davide Masiero, Mattia Fanan, Enrico Feltresi, and Gian Antonio Susto. "Time Series Forecasting to Detect Anomalous Behavior in Multiphase Flow Meters." In 2024 IEEE 8th Forum on Research and Technologies for Society and Industry Innovation (RTSI). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/rtsi61910.2024.10761679.

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Feng, Yuhan. "Time Series Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning for Traffic Flow." In 2024 5th International Conference on Big Data & Artificial Intelligence & Software Engineering (ICBASE). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icbase63199.2024.10762622.

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Li, Shaorong, Yao Chen, Jianhong Hu, and Yaokun Li. "CNN-BiGRU-Attention: A Time Series-Based Traffic Flow Prediction Model." In 2024 IEEE 5th International Conference on Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning (PRML). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/prml62565.2024.10779611.

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Li, Jialu, and Chen Wu. "OFA-NET: Optical Flow Aligning Network for Time Series Change Detection." In IGARSS 2024 - 2024 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/igarss53475.2024.10642119.

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Yao, Honglei, Donglan Liu, Yingxian Chang, Xin Liu, and Chaofan Tang. "Time Series Anomaly Detection Based on Normalized Flow and Bayesian Networks." In 2024 IEEE 9th International Conference on Data Science in Cyberspace (DSC). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/dsc63484.2024.00077.

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Nguyen, Thanh, Ngoc Duy Nguyen, Saeid Nahavandi, Syed Moshfeq Salaken, and Amin Khatami. "A Soft Computing Fusion for River Flow Time Series Forecasting." In 2018 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/fuzz-ieee.2018.8491453.

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Reports on the topic "River flow time series"

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Shadurdyyev, G. Analysis of sets of factors affecting the variable flow of the Amu Darya River to create a seasonal prognostic model. Kazakh-German University, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.29258/dkucrswp/2022/53-72.eng.

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The Amu Darya River is a transboundary river whose flow of the river in high-water years reaches up to 108 km3 and in low-water years up to 47 km3 and these are huge fluctuations in the water flow of the river for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, that share water among themselves. The point to consider is that the downstream countries Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (and possibly Afghanistan in the future) use a lot of water for irrigation, and therefore these countries are the ones most in need of an accurate forecast of the volume of water for the upcoming seaso
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Moreda, Fekadu, Benjamin Lord, Mauro Nalesso, Pedro Coli Valdes Daussa, and Juliana Corrales. Hydro-BID: New Functionalities (Reservoir, Sediment and Groundwater Simulation Modules). Inter-American Development Bank, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0009312.

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The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) provides financial and technicalsupport for infrastructure projects in water and sanitation, irrigation, flood control, transport, and energy, and for development projects in agriculture, urban systems, and natural resources. Many of these projects depend upon water resources and may be affected negatively by climate change and other developments that alter water availability, such as population growth and shifts in land use associated with urbanization, industrial growth, and agricultural practices. Assessing the potential for future changes in water
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Broderick, Robert Joseph, Jimmy Edward Quiroz, Abraham Ellis, Matthew J. Reno, Jeff Smith, and Roger Dugan. Time series power flow analysis for distribution connected PV generation. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1088099.

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Huntley, D., D. Rotheram-Clarke, R. Cocking, J. Joseph, and P. Bobrowsky. Current research on slow-moving landslides in the Thompson River valley, British Columbia (IMOU 5170 annual report). Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/331175.

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Interdepartmental Memorandum of Understanding (IMOU) 5170 between Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) and Transport Canada Innovation Centre (TC-IC) aims to gain new insight into slow-moving landslides, and the influence of climate change, through testing conventional and emerging monitoring technologies. IMOU 5107 focuses on strategically important sections of the national railway network in the Thompson River valley, British Columbia (BC), and the Assiniboine River valley along the borders of Manitoba (MN) and Saskatchewan (SK). Results of this research ar
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Desiderati, Christopher. Carli Creek Regional Water Quality Project: Assessing Water Quality Improvement at an Urban Stormwater Constructed Wetland. Portland State University, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.15760/mem.78.

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Stormwater management is an ongoing challenge in the United States and the world at-large. As state and municipal agencies grapple with conflicting interests like encouraging land development, complying with permits to control stormwater discharges, “urban stream syndrome” effects, and charges to steward natural resources for the long-term, some agencies may turn to constructed wetlands (CWs) as aesthetically pleasing and functional natural analogs for attenuating pollution delivered by stormwater runoff to rivers and streams. Constructed wetlands retain pollutants via common physical, physico
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Lynch, James F. A Higgs Universe and the flow of time. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1575/1912/69338.

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Theoretically considering velocities greater than c implies considering an observer’s past and extends the overall analysis into the complex plane. By using a series of rotations by i in the complex plane, one can create a four-lobed structure of “instants of time,” which together with considering matter and antimatter in the lobes and the +/- sense of the rotation, leads to a Higgs field representation of space and time. A 10x10 metric is developed for this system as well as a generalized spacetime interval. It is also shown that the Friedmann Equations are consistent with our “Higgs Cosmolog
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Lynch, James F. A digital Higgs universe and the flow of time. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1575/1912/70830.

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Theoretically considering velocities greater than c implies considering an observer’s past and extends the overall analysis into the complex plane. By using a series of rotations by i in the complex plane at the Planck scale, one can create a four-lobed structure of “instants of time,” which together with considering matter and antimatter in the lobes and the +/- sense of the rotation, leads to a Higgs field representation of spacetime. A metric is developed for this system as well as a generalized spacetime interval. It is shown that the Friedmann Equations are consistent with our “Higgs Cosm
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Sanders, Suzanne, and Jessica Kirschbaum. Forest health monitoring at Mississippi National River and Recreation Area: 2022 field season. National Park Service, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.36967/2301407.

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The Mississippi National River and Recreation area (MISS), situated along a 116 km stretch of the Mississippi River through the Minneapolis and St. Paul urban corridor, encompasses ~21,800 ha of public and private land. In 2022, the Great Lakes Inventory and Monitoring Network (GLKN) resampled permanent forest monitoring sites in the park, marking the second assessment of these sites, which were established and initially sampled in 2011. The goal of this long-term monitoring project is to provides managers with routine updates on which to base management decisions; these data can also be used
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Chhor, Auston, Nathan Lustig, Meghan Allan, Crystal Swayze, and Jess Sheena. Environmental flow needs assessment for salmonids in the Coldwater River. Raincoast, 2025. https://doi.org/10.70766/483.814.

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Climate change is driving drought impacts on salmon in the Coldwater River, a major tributary of the Nicola River. Determining specific flow optima for salmon is therefore important for water managers seeking to balance anthropogenic and ecosystem water needs. We conducted a habitat suitability-based environmental flow needs (EFN) assessment in the Coldwater River between July and September, 2024. We also analyzed over 50 years of streamflow data to frame environmental flows in the context of accelerating climate change. Our study produced curves that modelled the relationship between flows an
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Hertel, Thomas, David Hummels, Maros Ivanic, and Roman Keeney. How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements? GTAP Working Paper, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/gtap.wp26.

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Abstract:
With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such analysis is Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling. Yet these models have been widely criticized for performing poorly (Kehoe, 2002) and having weak econometric foundations (McKitrick, 1998; Jorgenson, 1984). FTA results have been shown to be particularly sensitive to the trade elasticities, with small trade elasticities generating large terms of trade effects and relatively modest efficiency gain
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