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1
Naji, Jamil Abdul-Rabb. "Road accident analysis in Yemen : the identification of shortcomings in road accident data, data adjustment, cost and development of road fatality model." Thesis, University of South Wales, 1996. https://pure.southwales.ac.uk/en/studentthesis/road-accident-analysis-in-yemen(8586c669-4709-4b2c-9d83-45003bc5d0bf).html.
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The true extent of the road accident problem in Yemen is questionable. Some agencies and citizens believe that the safety situation in Yemen is very critical while others disagree with this belief. Both sides however, agree that the road accident problem in Yemen is such that it requires considerable attention. Since Yemen has no history in road safety research and since there is no reliable road accident data in the country, making final judgements on the situation is difficult unless supported by adequate research. The aim of the present research is to provide a better understanding of the road accident problem in the Yemen. This can be made by investigation of the real dimensions of the road accident problem. This includes the identification of the shortcomings in road accident data, the cost of road accidents and modelling road accident fatalities.
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Mollet, C. J. "The analysis of road traffic accident data in the implementation of road safety remedial programmes." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52483.
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Thesis (M.Ing.)--Stellenbosch University, 2001.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A road safety remedial programme has as an objective the improvement of road transportation safety by applying road safety engineering remedial measures to hazardous road network elements in a manner that will be economically efficient. Since accident data is the primary manifestation of poor safety levels it must be analysed in manner that will support the overall objective of economic efficiency. Three steps in the process of implementing a road safety remedial programme, that rely on the systematic analysis of accident data, are the identification of hazardous locations, the ranking of hazardous locations and the evaluation of remedial measure effectiveness. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be enhanced by using appropriate methodologies to measure safety, identify and rank hazardous locations and to determine the effectiveness of road safety remedial measures. There are a number of methodologies available to perform these tasks, although some perform much better than other. Methodologies based on the Empirical Bayesian approach generally provide better results than the Conventional methods. Bayesian methodologies are not often used in South Africa. To do so would require the additional training of students and engineering professionals as well as more research by tertiary and other research institutions. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be compromised by using poor quality accident data. In South Africa the quality of accident data is generally poor and should more attention be given to the proper management and control of accident data. This thesis will report on, investigate and evaluate Bayesian and Conventional accident data analysis methodologies.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram is om op die mees koste effektiewe manier die veiligheid van onveilige padnetwerkelemente te verbeter deur die toepassing van ingenieursmaatreëls. Aangesien padveiligheid direk verband hou met verkeersongelukke vereis die koste effektiewe implementering van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram die doelgerigte en korrekte ontleding van ongeluksdata. Om 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram te implementeer word die ontleding van ongeluksdata verlang vir die identifisering en priortisering van gevaarkolle, sowel as om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Die koste effektiwiteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram kan verbeter word deur die regte metodes te kies om padveiligheid te meet, gevaarkolle te identifiseer en te prioritiseer en om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Daar is verskeie metodes om hierdie ontledings te doen, alhoewel sommige van die metodes beter is as ander. Die 'Bayesian' metodes lewer oor die algemeen beter resultate as die gewone konvensionele metodes. 'Bayesian' metodes word nie. in Suid Afrika toegepas nie. Om dit te doen sal addisionele opleiding van studente en ingenieurs vereis, sowel as addisionele navorsing deur universiteite en ander navorsing instansies. Die gebruik van swak kwaliteit ongeluksdata kan die integriteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram benadeel. Die kwaliteit van ongeluksdata in Suid Afrika is oor die algemeen swak en behoort meer aandag gegee te word aan die bestuur en kontrole van ongeluksdata. Die doel van hierdie tesis is om verslag te doen oor 'Bayesian' en konvensionele metodes wat gebruik kan word om ongeluksdata te ontleed, dit te ondersoek en te evalueer.
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Huang, Yu-Hsing. "Having a New Pair of Glassess : Applying Systemic Accident Models on Road Safety." Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, CSELAB - Cognitive Systems Engineering Laboratory, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-8189.
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The main purpose of the thesis is to discuss the accident models which underlie accident prevention in general and road safety in particular, and the consequences of relying on a particular model have for actual preventive work. The discussion centres on two main topics. The first topic is whether the underlying accident model, or paradigm, of traditional road safety should be exchanged for a more complex accident model, and if so, which model(s) are appropriate. From a discussion of current developments in modern road traffic, it is concluded that the traditional accident model of road safety needs replacing. An analysis of three general accident model types shows that the work of traditional road safety is based on a sequential accident model. Since research in industrial safety has shown that such model are unsuitable for complex systems, it needs to be replaced by a systemic model, which better handles the complex interactions and dependencies of modern road traffic. The second topic of the thesis is whether the focus of road safety should shift from accident investigation to accident prediction. Since the goal of accident prevention is to prevent accidents in the future, its focus should theoretically be on how accidents will happen rather than on how they did happen. Despite this, road safety traditionally puts much more emphasis on accident investigation than prediction, compared to areas such as nuclear power plant safety and chemical industry safety. It is shown that this bias towards the past is driven by the underlying sequential accident model. It is also shown that switching to a systemic accident model would create a more balanced perspective including both investigations of the past and predictions of the future, which is seen as necessary to deal with the road safety problems of the future. In the last chapter, more detailed effects of adopting a systemic perspective is discussed for four important areas of road safety, i.e. road system modelling, driver modelling, accident/incident investigations and road safety strategies. These descriptions contain condensed versions of work which has been done in the FICA and the AIDE projects, and which can be found in the attached papers.
4
Chan, Wing-yee, and 陳詠怡. "An application of GIS for road accident analysis in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2000. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31224052.
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Chan, Wing-yee. "An application of GIS for road accident analysis in Hong Kong /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2000. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk:8888/cgi-bin/hkuto%5Ftoc%5Fpdf?B23294577.
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Berdica, Katja. "TraVIS for Roads - Examples of Road Transport Vulnerability Impact Studies." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2002. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3438.
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Tunaru, Radu. "Statistical modelling of road accident data via graphical models and hierarchical Bayesian models." Thesis, Middlesex University, 1999. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/8030/.
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The objective of this thesis is to develop statistical models for multivariate road accident data. Two directions of research are followed: graphical modelling for contingency tables cross-classified by accident characteristics, and hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple accident frequencies of different types modelled jointly. Multi-dimensional tables are analysed and it is shown how to use collapsibility to reduce the dimensionality of the analysis without the problems of Simpson's paradox. It is revealed that accident severity and the number of casualties are associated, and that these variables are mainly influenced by the number of vehicles and speed limit. Graphical chain models allow causal hypotheses to be formulated and it is shown how they are valuable tools for empirical research about road accident characteristics. The hierarchical Bayesian models developed combine generalized linear models with random effects. The novelty of these models consists in the joint modelling of multiple response variables. The models account for overdispersion and they are used for accident prediction and for ranking hazardous sites. All models are fully Bayesian and are fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. It is shown that multiple response variables models are superior to separate univariate response models. Some theoretical problems are examined regarding the maximum likelihood estimation process for the two parameters negative binomial distribution. A condition is given that is equivalent with unique maximum likelihood estimators. The two directions of research are connected by using graphs to describe the models. In addition, a new Bayesian model selection procedure for contingency tables is proposed. This is based on Gibbs sampling and avoids problems associated with asymptotic tests. The conclusions revealed here can help practitioners to design better safety policies and to spend money more wisely on sites that really are dangerous.
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Johansson, Sofia, and Sri Vasireddy. "Analysis of Mobility and Traffic Safety with Respect to Changes in Volumes; Case Study: Stockholm, Sweden." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Kommunikations- och transportsystem, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-177780.
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The growing population and motorization generate more movements. In many cities, the increase of population and motorization is much greater than the development of the capacity of the transportation network. For unprotected road users, the risk of getting in a traffic accident increases and the risk of being more severely injured in an accident. In March 2020, a pandemic was declared because of a Coronavirus. More people started to work/study from home to prevent the virus from spreading by avoiding unnecessary trips, gatherings, and crowded areas. Therefore, travel behaviours have shifted during the pandemic compared to previous years. This project aims to get knowledge of how mobility and traffic accidents are affected by significant shifts of travel flow, predict the effect of traffic accidents based on mobility, and evaluate the risk of travelling on a particular road segment.Examensarbetet är utfört vid Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap (ITN) vid Tekniska fakulteten, Linköpings universitet
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Nováková, Kristýna. "Bezpečnostní inspekce na vybraných lokalitách v Olomouckém kraji." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-372077.
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The diploma thesis focuses on a road safety inspection of selected intersections in Olomouc Region. The first step of the diploma thesis was to select 20 intersections, then each one was subjected to accident analysis. The intersections were compared by accident indicators, which were the basis of selection 11 intersections for visual inspection purposes. Based on visual inspections, the selection was further reduced to 4 intersections in Olomouc Region, which were subjected to detailed road safety inspection, then the potential risks influencing the origins of accident were identified and corrective measures were proposed in order to remove or eliminate the intersections problems.
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Brodňanská, Erika. "Speciální bezpečnostní inspekce na vybraných lokalitách v Jihomoravském kraji." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-265585.
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The thesis focuses on a road safety inspection in South Moravian Region. In the first part, 15 locations with different characteristics were chosen, which were subjected to in-depth accident analysis and then compared by security indicators. On the basis of the results of this analysis, 5 locations were selected, namely the junction on a road II/430 and four sections on the roads II/373, II/384 and II/394. The selected sites were the objects for a road safety inspection, consisting of a personal visit of sections and the subsequent preparation of the potential risks influencing the origins of accidents. For each risk are proposed corrective measures that remove or eliminate the problems on selected section.
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Jokešová, Markéta. "Možnosti využití GPS při analýze silničních nehod." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232609.
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Diploma thesis deals with the possibilities of using GPS when analysing road accidents. The history and structure of U.S. global positioning system, Russian GLONASS system and European Galileo system are described. GPS receivers are sorted out by the possibility of use. The thesis deals with the methods of refinement GPS and how the vehicles can be monitored using GPS. In the practical part of this diploma thesis measurements with several types of navigations were made. And a comparison of accuracy of measured data with the real situation where the car was found at the moment of measuring followed and how fast was gone.
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Arampamoorthy, Haran. "Analysis of spatial distributions of road accidents." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/4832.
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Traffic accidents result in life and financial loss to the society. In
developing countries traffic fatalities are comparable to other leading
causes of death. The need for the analysis of the spatial distribution of
traffic accidents, as an aid to select the most appropriate type of
accident reduction programme (e.g. site, route and area plans) and
assessing the effectiveness of such plans after implementation, is very
important. The current practice (e.g. visual examination) for assessing
the spatial distribution of accidents is reviewed. In this thesis, various
methods for the statistical analysis of spatial distributions of accidents
(including quadrat and nearest - neighbour methods) are reviewed and
further improvements are described.
Accidents are random events subject to both temporal and spatial
variation. The basic variables for accident analysis are; distance and
direction of accident locations in terms of North and East co-ordinates,
azimuth, and the year of the accident. A new method for analysing the
spatial pattern is proposed, whereby detection of a particular pattern
will indicate which type of accident reduction programme is most
appropriate. The method distinguishes the spatial distribution (point
cluster, line cluster, area cluster or a completely spatially random
distribution) of accidents in different types of road networks (regular or
irregular and dense or sparse). The method can also help assessment of
the changes in spatial distributions of accidents.
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Ayati, Esmail. "Rural road accidents in Iran: analysis, comparison and the cost." Thesis, Aston University, 1988. http://publications.aston.ac.uk/14282/.
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In the general introduction of the road-accident phenomenon inside and outside Iran, the results of previous research-works and international conferences and seminars on road-safety have been reviewed. Also a sample-road between Tehran and Mashad has been investigated as a case-study. Examining the road-accident data and iriformation, first: the information presented in road-accident reportforms in developed countries is discussed and, second: the procedures for road-accident data collection in Iran are investigated in detail. The data supplied by Iran Road-Police Central Statistics Office, is analysed, different rates are computed, due comparisons with other nations are made, and the results are discussed. Also such analysis and comparisons are presented for different provinces of Iran. It is concluded that each province with its own natural, geographical, social and economical characteristics possesses its own reasons for the quality and quantity of road-accidents and therefore must receive its own appropriate remedial solutions. The question~ of "what is the cost of road-accidents" , "why and how evaluate the cost", "what is the appropriate way of approach to such evaluation" are all discussed and then "the cost of road-accidents in Iran" based on two different approaches: "Gross National Output"and"court award" is computed. It is concluded that this cost is about 1.5 per cent of the country's national product. In Appendix 3 an impressive example is given of the trend of costs and benefits that can be attributed to investment in road-safety measures.
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Odero, Wilson Washington Omole. "Road traffic injuries and alcohol in Eldoret, Kenya : epidemiology and policy analysis." Thesis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (University of London), 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.251919.
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Kosňovský, Michal. "Optimalizace kategorií silnic první třídy." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-234550.
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This dissertation addresses the possibility of using the 2+1 road arrangement in the Czech Republic. Given that there is no such 2+1 segment in the Czech Republic, it was necessary to find sections with similar characteristics, evaluate and measure the rate of accidents as well as sectional velocity. The accident rate was evaluated on 72 sections and based on this research the optimal length of 2+1 arrangement road sections was determined. Digital image analysis and license plate recognition was used to evaluate the sectional velocity. Eight selected sections was subjected to the additional sectional velocity measurement, which showed improvement in passenger vehicles travel time. Traffic model microsimulations were performed after the data analysis. 2+1 arrangement roads are suitable solution for increasing travel speeds on sections where building of four-lane road is not economically viable.
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Sheikh, Mohammad Mizanur Rahman. "A statistical analysis of road traffic accidents and casualties in Bangladesh." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.506322.
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A statistical analysis was conducted for road traffic accidents and associated casualties in Bangladesh. This was undertaken in order to assist the policymakers to take appropriate steps to be reduced the road traffic accidents and the associated casualties. Secondary data (collecting from Bangladesh government publications) were explored, analysed and modelled statistically. An exploration was undertaken using the averages (per annum) of rates of KSI/ fatal casualty, accident and involved vehicles applying Bar-charts. In addition, annual time series data were investigated using trend lines. A detailed analysis of variances was conducted using the rates (per 10,000 populations) of BRTA traffic accident and casualty data applying mainly non-parametric tests. Time series; one-way and two /three-way classified data are analysed applying linear regression model; Mann-Whitney or Kruskal-Wallis tests and Univariate regression model respectively. Finally, modelling of two/ three-way data was conducted using the frequencies of fatal casualty, fatal accident and involved vehicles applying Poisson regression. The most significant findings from this research were that pedestrians are highly involved in the casualty figures. Fatal hit pedestrian is the main collision type accident. Maximum fatal accidents occur at out of junction. Cities have higher accident and casualty rates than that for non-cities (divisions/ districts, excluding cities). In particular, Rajshahi city and Dhaka city have the highest accident rates. National highways are the main venues of accidents and casualties. Heavy vehicles including buses and trucks are predominantly involved in casualty accident. Implications from this research have been considered and suitable recommendations have been made.
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Habart, Lukáš. "Využití moderních kamerových systémů při analýze silničních nehod." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232761.
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Diploma thesis deals with the possibilities of using video records in analysis road accidents. There are described static and dynamic camera systems. There are also explained the principles of functioning digital cameras and other related terms and associated principles. In this thesis there are compared several types of dynamic cameras, desribed analysis an evaluation procedure. Part of this thesis is to describe the legal issues of recording.
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Yao, Shenjun, and 姚申君. "Advances in spatial analysis of traffic crashes: the identification of hazardous road locations." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B50434445.
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The identification of hazardous road locations is important to the improvement of road safety. However, there is still no consensus on the best method of identifying hazardous road locations. While traditional methods, such as the hot spot methodology, focus on the physical distances separating road crashes only, the hot zone methodology takes network contiguity into consideration and treats contiguous road segments as hazardous road locations. Compared with the hot spot method, hot zone methodology is a relatively new direction and there still remain a number of methodological issues in applying the method to the identification of hazardous road locations. Hence, this study aims to provide a GIS-based study on the identification of crash hot zones as hazardous road locations with both link-attribute and event-based approaches. It first explores the general procedures of the two approaches in identifying traffic crash hot zones, and then investigates the characteristics of the two approaches by conducting a range of sensitivity analysis on defining threshold value and crash intensity with both simulated and empirical data.
The results suggest that it is better to use a dissolved road network instead of a raw-link-node road network. The segmentation length and the interval of reference points have great impacts on the identification of hot zones, and they are better defined as 100 meters considering the stabilities of the performance. While employing a numerical definition to identify hot zones is a simple and effort-saving approach, using the Monte Carlo method can avoid selection bias in choosing an appropriate number as the threshold value. If the two approaches are compared, it is observed that the link-attribute approach is more likely to cause false negative problem and the event-based approach is prone to false positive problem around road junctions. No matter which method is used, the link-attribute approach requires less computer time in identifying crash hot zones. When a range of environmental variables have to be taken into consideration, the link-attribute approach is superior to the event-based approach in that it is easier for the link-attribute approach to incorporate environmental variables with statistical models.
By investigating the hot zone methodology, this research is expected to enrich the theoretical knowledge of the identification of hazardous road locations and to practically provide policy-makers with more information on identifying road hazards. Further research efforts have to be dedicated to the ranking of hot zones and the investigation of false positive and false negative problems.published_or_final_version
Geography
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Lee, Jinsun. "Econometric analysis of the effect of roadway geometric and roadside features on run-off-roadway accident frequencies and severities /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/10130.
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Kayi, Calvine. "An analysis of road traffic accidents using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) : the case of Nairobi City, Kenya /." Hamburg : Kovač, 2007. http://www.verlagdrkovac.de/978-3-8300-3247-2.htm.
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S, Alvarez Victor. "Understanding Boundary Conditions for Brain Injury Prediction : Finite Element Analysis of Vulnerable Road Users." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Neuronik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-215643.
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Vulnerable road users (VRUs) are overrepresented in the statistics on severe and deadly injuries in traffic accidents, most commonly involving the head. The finite element (FE) method presents the possibility to model complex interactions between the human body and vehicles in order to better understand the injury mechanisms. While the rapid development of computer capacity has allowed for increasingly detailed FE-models, there is always a benefit of reducing the studied problem. Due to its material properties, the brain is more sensitive to rotational motion than to purely linear, resulting in complex injury causation. When studying brain injuries caused by a direct impact to the head, simulations using an isolated head model significantly increases efficiency compared to using a complete human body model. Also evaluation of head protective systems uses isolated mechanical head representations. It is not, however, established the extent to which the boundary conditions of the head determine the outcome of brain injuries. FE models of both the entire human body and the isolated head were used in this thesis to study the effect of the body, as well as active neck muscle tension, on brain injury outcome in VRU accidents. A pediatric neck model was also developed to enable the study of age-specific effects. A vehicle windscreen model was developed to evaluate the necessity of capturing the failure deformation during pedestrian head impacts. It was shown that the influence of the neck and body on brain injury prediction is greater in longer duration impacts, such as pedestrian head-to-windscreen impacts with an average difference of 21%. In accidents with shorter duration impacts, such as head-to-ground bicycle accidents, the average influence was between 3-12%. The influence did not consistently increase or limit the severity, and was dependent on the degree of rotation induced by the impact, as well as the mode of deformation induced in the neck. It was also shown that the predicted brain injury severity is dependent on capturing the large deformations of fractured windscreen, with the greatest effect near the windscreen frame. The pediatric neck model showed a large effect of age-dependent anatomical changes on inertial head loading, making it a promising tool to study the age-dependent effects in VRU accidents.QC 20171013
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Ouyang, Xutong. "Exploring the attributes relevant to accidents between vehicles and unprotected road users, taking Stockholm as an example." Thesis, KTH, Geoinformatik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-278990.
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Traffic accidents is one of the major causes of fatalities and economic loss around the world. Thus, there is an urgent need for a better understanding about the factors that contribute to accidents so that the accidents can be prevented in the future. The research objective of this thesis is to analyze the traffic accidents between vehicles and unprotected road users (pedestrians and bicycles) in Stockholm, finding spatial distribution patterns, related attributes and examining relationships between accidents and a number of vehicle flows. The data is first analyzed with general statistical analysis to examine the basic characteristics. There is no apparent trend of change among the number of accidents per year, while the numbers of accidents happening from May to October is higher than the rest of the year except for July due to less traffic during holiday period. Most traffic accidents occur in overcast weather, on a dry road surface, or during the day. In the spatial analysis part of the thesis, Global Moran’s I is used to detect whether there is an attribute-related spatial distribution pattern. Hot spot analysis is then applied on the clustered attributes to find significant hot and cold spots over the study area. The conclusions are that road surface conditions and occurrence time during day/night are two related factors that influence traffic accidents while weather is not considered a related attribute since the accidents distribute randomly in terms of weather, of which it is difficult to obtain temporally-aligned, detailed local information for further analysis. Different parameters are selected and discussed during the process. When calculating the distance between two accidents in traffic accident analysis, Manhattan distance is more appropriate than Euclidean distance since traffic accidents are restricted to the road network. The distance band determines scales of analysis tools, with 50 meters on an intersection and 500 meters for a larger region in Stockholm. Most hot spots arise at intersections and roundabouts where different types of traffic flows meet each other. The result of the relationships between traffic accidents and different types of vehicle flows shows that the correlation coefficients between number of traffic accidents and traffic flows are low, meaning that there is no obvious correlation between them, which is also proved by the scatter plots. Poisson regression model is applied on the traffic accident data. As a result, high-risk and low-risk areas in Stockholm are pointed out. Some are consistent with the hot-spot analysis result.
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Alvarez, Stephanie. "Évaluation des gains de sécurité, sécurisation des essais et analyse des accidents du véhicule autonome : une approche systémique." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLEM006/document.
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Les constructeurs automobiles fabriquant des systèmes de conduite automatisée ont besoin d’aborder les conséquences que ces systèmes peuvent avoir sur la sécurité routière. Notamment pour l’évaluation des gains de sécurité, la sécurisation des essais et l’analyse des accidents impliquant le véhicule autonome. Cependant, le cadre conceptuel actuel utilisé dans la sécurité routière peut ne pas être adapté pour l’analyse des changements et des nouvelles interactions introduits par l’automatisation du véhicule à travers toutes les échelles du système sociotechnique de transport routier.Le but de la thèse est d’appliquer une approche systémique fondée sur STAMP afin d'étudier les gains attendus du véhicule autonome en termes de sécurité routière, sécuriser les expérimentations et analyser les accidents impliquant ce type de véhicule, à travers toutes les échelles du système sociotechnique de transport routier.Afin de contribuer au calcul des gains du véhicule autonome sur la sécurité routière, la population cible d’un « highway pilot system» a été définie et des questions issue d’une analyse STPA (analyse des risques issue de STAMP) aidant à l’évaluation de l’efficacité du système ont été élaborées.Un cadre de sécurisation des expérimentations couvrant tous les niveaux du système a été mis en place au moyen d’une analyse STPA à deux échelles.Enfin, une méthode d’analyse des accidents impliquant un conducteur automatisé a été créé en intégrant des éléments issus de méthodes d’analyses des accidents de la route existantes et des éléments explicatifs développés spécialement à la méthode CAST (méthode d’analyse des accidents fondée sur STAMP). L’accident impliquant une Tesla en mai 2016 est le cas d’étude de cette nouvelle méthode, CASCAD.En conclusion, ces trois applications ont montré tout le potentiel d’une approche systémique fondée sur STAMP pour offrir un cadre conceptuel adapté à l’évaluation des conséquences sur la sécurité routière de la conduite automatiséeAs automakers develop automated driving systems, they must address the implications of such systems on road safety. Notably for the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis. However, the existing conceptual framework in road safety may not be adapted to analyze the changes and new interactions introduced by vehicle automation at all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.The main objective of this thesis is to apply a systems theoretic approach based on STAMP to examine the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis of automated driving across all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.This research first contributes to safety benefit assessment by estimating the target population of a highway pilot system and by generating questions derived from an STPA analysis (hazard analysis based on STAMP) to facilitate the evaluation of the influence of the highway pilot system on road safety.Next, this work establishes a framework to ensure trial safety across the macroscopic and microscopic levels of the vehicle trial system by structuring the outputs of two STPA analyses.Finally, this thesis integrates elements from existing crash analysis methods and newly developed guidance elements into CAST (an accident analysis method based on STAMP) to develop a new method for the accident analysis of crashes involving automated driving called CASCAD. The application of CASCAD was illustrated using the available information of the Tesla crash on May 2016.The three applications of this research show the potential of a STAMP-based approach to provide a suitable conceptual framework for the analysis of the implications of road safety on automated driving
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Aurich, Allan. "Modelle zur Beschreibung der Verkehrssicherheit innerörtlicher Hauptverkehrsstraßennetze unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Umfeldnutzung." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-125311.
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In der Arbeit wird eine Methodik einer zusammenhängenden Analyse und modellhaften Beschreibung der Verkehrssicherheit in städtischen Hauptstraßennetzen am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden entwickelt. Die dabei gewonnenen Modelle dienen der Abschätzung von Erwartungswerten von Unfallhäufigkeiten mit und ohne Personenschaden unter Berücksichtigung der Verkehrsbeteiligungsart. Die Grundlage bilden multivariate Regressionsmodelle auf Basis verallgemeinerter linearer Modelle (GLM). Die Verwendung verallgemeinerter Regressionsmodelle erlaubt eine Berücksichtigung von Verteilungen, die besser geeignet sind, den Unfallentstehungsprozess wiederzugeben, als die häufig verwendete Normalverteilung. Im konkreten Fall werden hierzu die Poisson-Verteilung sowie die negative Binomialverteilung verwendet. Um Effekte im Hauptverkehrsstraßennetz möglichst trennscharf abbilden zu können, werden vier grundsätzliche Netzelemente differenziert und das Netz entsprechend zerlegt. Unterschieden werden neben Streckenabschnitten und Hauptverkehrsknotenpunkten auch Annäherungsbereiche und Anschlussknotenpunkte. Die Kollektive der Knotenpunkte werden ferner in signalisierte und nicht-signalisierte unterteilt. Es werden zunächst Modelle unterschiedlicher Unfallkollektive getrennt für alle Kollektive der vier Netzelemente berechnet. Anschließend werden verschiedene Vorgehensweisen für eine Zusammenfassung zu Netzmodellen entwickelt. Neben der Verwendung verkehrstechnischer und infrastruktureller Größen als erklärende Variable werden in der Arbeit auch Kenngrößen zur Beschreibung der Umfeldnutzung ermittelt und im Rahmen der Regression einbezogen. Die Quantifizierung der Umfeldnutzung erfolgt mit Hilfe von Korrelations-, Kontingenz- und von Hauptkomponentenanalysen (PCA). Im Ergebnis werden Modelle präsentiert, die eine multivariate Quantifizierung erwarteter Unfallhäufigkeiten in Hauptverkehrsstraßennetzen erlauben. Die vorgestellte Methodik bildet eine mögliche Grundlage für eine differenzierte Sicherheitsbewertung verkehrsplanerischer VariantenabschätzungenA methodology is developed in order to predict the number of accidents within an urban main road network. The analysis was carried out by surveying the road network of Dresden. The resulting models allow the calculation of individual expectancy values for accidents with and without injury involving different traffic modes. The statistical modelling process is based on generalized linear models (GLM). These were chosen due to their ability to take into account certain non-normal distributions. In the specific case of accident counts, both the Poisson distribution and the negative binomial distribution are more suitable for reproducing the origination process than the normal distribution. Thus they were chosen as underlying distributions for the subsequent regressions. In order to differentiate overlaying influences, the main road network is separated into four basic elements: major intersections, road sections, minor intersections and approaches. Furthermore the major and minor intersections are additionally subdivided into signalised and non-signalised intersections. Separate models are calculated for different accident collectives for the various types of elements. Afterwards several methodologies for calculating aggregated network models are developed and analysed. Apart from traffic-related and infrastructural attributes, environmental parameters are derived taking into account the adjacent building structure as well as the surrounding land-use, and incorporated as explanatory variables within the regression. The environmental variables are derived from statistical analyses including correlation matrices, contingency tables and principal components analyses (PCA). As a result, a set of models is introduced which allows a multivariate calculation of expected accident counts for urban main road networks. The methodology developed can serve as a basis for a differentiated safety assessment of varying scenarios within a traffic planning process
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Špaček, Jan. "Bezpečnostní inspekce v kraji Vysočina." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2019. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-392158.
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This thesis presents a safety inspection in selected places in the Vysocina region of the Czech Republic. Six intersections in rural and municipal areas, plus three rural road sections were selected for the inspection and an accident rate analysis. The places selected were compared in terms of the accident rate and one case of each group was then selected for a detailed safety inspection encompassing visual inspection and identification of possible hazards. By eliminating such safety hazards, it is possible to ensure a traffic fluency and to preclude traffic accidents or at least minimize the harm caused by it.
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Almonte, Valdivia Ana Maria. "Level-of-service and traffic safety relationship an exploratory analysis of signalized intersections and multilane high-speed arterial corridors /." Orlando, Fla. : University of Central Florida, 2009. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0002615.
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Lindberg, Gunnar. "Valuation and pricing of traffic safety /." Örebro : Universitetsbiblioteket : Örebro University, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-787.
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Majero, T. A. Tiffany. "Retrospective analysis of blunt force trauma associated with fatal road traffic accidents in Cape Town (South Africa) over a two-year period." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29580.
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Road transportation systems are a global developmental achievement. However, with them comes increased morbidity and mortality rates in the form of road traffic accidents. In South Africa, there is a need to characterize road traffic accidents and the injuries associated with them, to determine the preventative mechanisms required to reduce their morbidity and mortality rates. A brief review of fatal road traffic accidents from a global perspective is presented, highlighting the current literature surrounding the prevalence, demographics and blunt force trauma injuries associated with road traffic accidents in South Africa. There is limited research regarding the prevalence and characteristics of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of fatal road traffic accidents, necessitating the need for research, particularly at the regional level. A retrospective analysis was therefore conducted of all fatal road traffic accident related deaths autopsied at Salt River Mortuary (which services the West Metropole region of Cape Town, South Africa) from January 1st , 2013 to December 31st , 2014. The mean prevalence of road traffic accidents for the reviewed period was 15.9 / 100 000 population. The majority of road traffic accident victims were males who fell in the age group of 30 – 49 years. Over the two-year period, the majority of road traffic accident victims were pedestrians with elevated blood alcohol concentration levels. The head and facial regions of victims commonly exhibited external injuries, while the majority of fractures and organ injury were seen in the head and chest regions. There are limited studies which have investigated the blunt force trauma injuries associated with road traffic accidents in South Africa, and there is a need for further research. Interventions are of paramount importance to decrease fatal road traffic accidents, particularly amongst pedestrians as a road user. This study presents recent data on road traffic accidents for the West Metropole region of Cape Town (South Africa).
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Wang, Chunyan. "Fatal crash trends and analysis in southeastern states." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-04092006-023047/.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (p. 209-211). Also available online via the Georgia Institute of Technology ETD website (http://etd.gatech.edu/).
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AFFONSO, Renato Raoni Werneck. "Desenvolvimento de um código computacional 3-D para estudos de transferência de calor em varetas combustíveis, em situações não usuais." reponame:Repositório Institucional do IEN, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/ien/653.
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Estudos de transferência de calor em varetas combustível são de grande importância na indústria nuclear. Isso se evidencia pela necessidade da predição de temperaturas limite para otimizar o projeto de varetas combustível. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo o desenvolvimento de um código computacional em linguagem fortran, no qual estão reunidas ferramentas como o Método de Elementos Finitos. Equações e correlações termo-hidráulicas foram implementadas no código com vistas a uma investigação profunda da transferência de calor entre a vareta combustível e o canal refrigerante, buscando, assim, entender o comportamento de ambos em regime transiente (como, por exemplo, nas situações de acidente). Foi feita uma análise sobre a validade da aproximação que desconsidera o fluxo axial de calor nas soluções analíticas. Comparações entre as soluções utilizando as propriedades constantes e propriedades dependentes da temperatura forma contempladas nesse trabalho. Estudos transientes envolvendo o desligamento do reator, considerando aspectos como a temperatura limite do combustível e o Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio (BNBR), foram realizados produzindo resultados que podem demonstrar o desempenho do código computacional
Studies on heat transfer fuel rods are of great importance in the nuclear industry . This is evidenced by the need for prediction of temperature limits to optimize the design of fuel rods . This work aims to develop a computer code in FORTRAN language, in which are gathered tools such as Finite Element Method . Equations and thermo- hydraulic correlations were implemented in the code with a view to a thorough investigation of heat transfer between the fuel rod and coolant channel , seeking thereby to understand the behavior of both in transient ( eg , in cases of accident ) . An analysis of the validity of the approach that disregards the axial heat flow in the analytical solutions was taken . Comparisons between solutions using constant properties and temperature dependent properties manner contemplated in this work . Transient studies involving the reactor shutdown , considering aspects such as limit the fuel temperature and Departure from nucleate Boiling Ratio ( BnBr ) , were performed yielding results that can demonstrate the performance of the computer code
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Rafferty, Paula S. "Spatial Analysis of North Central Texas Traffic Fatalities 2001-2006." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2010. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc33195/.
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A traditional two dimensional (planar) statistical analysis was used to identify the clustering types of North Central Texas traffic fatalities occurring in 2001-2006. Over 3,700 crash locations clustered in ways that were unlike other researched regions. A two dimensional (x and y coordinates) space was manipulated to mimic a one dimensional network to identify the tightest clustering of fatalities in the nearly 400,000 crashes reported from state agencies from 2003-2006. The roadway design was found to significantly affect crash location. A one dimensional (linear) network analysis was then used to measure the statistically significant clustering of flow variables of after dark crashes and daylight crashes. Flow variables were determined to significantly affect crash location after dark. The linear and planar results were compared and the one dimensional, linear analysis was found to be more accurate because it did not over detect the clustering of events on a network.
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Špačková, Tereza. "Analýza počtu dopravních nehod na silnicích Středočeského kraje." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-11868.
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The aim of my diploma thesis is the analysis of traffic accident quantity on roads (highways and motorways) of Central Bohemia. My personal contribution to this topic is the particular analysis of accident frequency within Central Bohemia between 1994 and 2007. Nobody has dealt with such an analysis in frame of this region until the present. In the theoretical part of the thesis, basic definitions are expounded from the theory of traffic accident frequency and the partition of traffic accidents according to different criteria, and the classification of roads. There is a situation described in Central Bohemia for each type of classification for mentioned years. The practical part of the thesis is divided into three sections, which analyze problems from different points of view. In the first part, there are detected reciprocal relations between basic indicators of traffic accident frequency in the particular districts of Central Bohemia. The next part targets the analysis of time series of causes and results of traffic accidents within this region, in particular months of mentioned years. The aim of this part is to describe the trend of time series by acceptable methods and to estimate their supposed development in the following 12 months. In the third and final part of the thesis, the analysis of less commonly considered causes of traffic accidents are performed, as is directional conditions, status of road surface, visibility, weather conditions and transversal setting of communication. The target of this final part is to verify whether these factors significantly influence the number of traffic accidents on different types of roads.
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Smělý, Martin. "Návrhové prvky turbo-okružních křižovatek." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-355603.
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Dissertation describes new methodology of design turbo-roundabouts in Czech Republic. Especially innovative is approach to the design of traffic lanes with regards to standard vehicles and widening of traffic lanes according to their dimensions. Innovative is also approach to road signs, where details of current signs are modified, however, these details are important for drivers’ better understanding while driving through turbo-roundabouts. Dissertation fills legislative, but also technical, blank spot during turbo-roundabouts design and I believe that it will benefit particularly designers of these intersections.
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Švábenský, Petr. "Využití dat z řídicích jednotek vozidel při analýze silničních nehod." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232733.
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Abstract Master thesis is focused on The Application of Data from Vehicle Electronic Control Units in the Analysis of Road Accidents. The theoretical part deals with the electronic systems of vehicles and their control units, diagnostic processes, retrieving accident data from the controls unit and the need for these data in the analysis of road accidents. The experimental part focuses on obtaining data for crashed vehicles, interpretation of such data and assessment of their usefulness for analyzing road accidents. It also focuses on the procedures and methods on how to retreive accident data.
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Belák, Michal. "Zjištění doby potřebné pro řidiče k vyhodnocení situace za vozidlem při odbočování a předjíždění." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2020. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-433153.
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The dissertation thesis deals mainly with determining of the duration that driver needs to assess the situation behind his vehicle at manoeuvers of turning and overtaking, based on the measurements made in real road traffic. These are common and frequent driving manoeuvers, which the driver performs while driving the vehicle in regular road traffic. For their safe execution the driver needs to have sufficient amount of information about the situation around the vehicle and especially behind the vehicle. This information can driver usually gain from devices for indirect vision, most often rear view mirrors. The time thus defined, suitable e.g for the needs of forensic engineering applications for the analysis of road accidents, has not been studied in detail yet. For the purpose of its determination, therefore, an extensive analysis of the current state of problematics related to the indirect vision from the vehicle was carried out. There were formulated influences on the time duration and with this related characteristics of humans as a part of the driver-vehicle-environment system in the thesis. The characteristics of human perception were investigated and the problematics of reaction time was discussed. Existing research focused on the duration of rear view mirrors glances was analyzed and possible methods of its measurement in detail were presented by author. Based on this, an experiment was designed and realized, the time necessary for rear view mirror glances was defined by the author. The results enable to quantify the time that the driver needs for assessing the situation behind the vehicle in connection of turning, overtaking and other driving manoeuvers when the driver needs to change the driving direction. The conclusions showed that the time needed to evaluate the situation behind the vehicle by means of the rear-view mirrors does not normally exceed duration 1 second.
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Ouni, Zaïd. "Statistique pour l’anticipation des niveaux de sécurité secondaire des générations de véhicules." Thesis, Paris 10, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA100099/document.
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La sécurité routière est une priorité mondiale, européenne et française. Parce que les véhicules légers (ou simplement “les véhicules”) sont évidemment l’un des acteurs principaux de l’activité routière, l'amélioration de la sécurité routière passe nécessairement par l’analyse de leurs caractéristiques accidentologiques. Si les nouveaux véhicules sont développés en bureau d’étude et validés en laboratoire, c’est la réalité accidentologique qui permet de vraiment cerner comment ils se comportent en matière de sécurité secondaire, c’est-à-dire quelle sécurité ils offrent à leurs occupants lors d’un accident. C’est pourquoi les constructeurs souhaitent procéder au classement des générations de véhicules en fonction de leurs niveaux de sécurité secondaire réelle. Nous abordons cette thématique en exploitant les données nationales d’accidents corporels de la route appelées BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). En complément de celles-ci, les données de parc automobile permettent d’associer une classe générationelle (CG) à chaque véhicule. Nous élaborons deux méthodes de classement de CGs en termes de sécurité secondaire. La première produit des classements contextuels, c’est-à-dire des classements de CGs plongées dans des contextes d’accident. La seconde produit des classements globaux, c’est-`a-dire des classements de CGs déterminés par rapport à une distribution de contextes d’accident. Pour le classement contextuel, nous procédons par “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe un nombre réel à toute combinaison de CG et de contexte d’accident ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est sûre dans le contexte d’accident donné. La fonction de score optimale est estimée par “ensemble learning”, sous la forme d’une combinaison convexe optimale de fonctions de score produites par une librairie d’algorithmes de classement par scoring. Une inégalité oracle illustre les performances du méta-algorithme ainsi obtenu. Le classement global est également basé sur le principe de “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe à toute CG un nombre réel ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est jugée sûre globalement. Des arguments causaux permettent d’adapter le méta-algorithme évoqué ci-dessus en s’affranchissant du contexte d’accident. Les résultats des deux méthodes de classement sont conformes aux attentes des expertsRoad safety is a world, European and French priority. Because light vehicles (or simply“vehicles”) are obviously one of the main actors of road activity, the improvement of roadsafety necessarily requires analyzing their characteristics in terms of traffic road accident(or simply “accident”). If the new vehicles are developed in engineering department and validated in laboratory, it is the reality of real-life accidents that ultimately characterizesthem in terms of secondary safety, ie, that demonstrates which level of security they offer to their occupants in case of an accident. This is why car makers want to rank generations of vehicles according to their real-life levels of safety. We address this problem by exploiting a French data set of accidents called BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). In addition, fleet data are used to associate a generational class (GC) to each vehicle. We elaborate two methods of ranking of GCs in terms of secondary safety. The first one yields contextual rankings, ie, rankings of GCs in specified contexts of accident. The second one yields global rankings, ie, rankings of GCs determined relative to a distribution of contexts of accident. For the contextual ranking, we proceed by “scoring”: we look for a score function that associates a real number to any combination of GC and a context of accident; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC in the given context. The optimal score function is estimated by “ensemble learning”, under the form of an optimal convex combination of scoring functions produced by a library of ranking algorithms by scoring. An oracle inequality illustrates the performance of the obtained meta-algorithm. The global ranking is also based on “scoring”: we look for a scoring function that associates any GC with a real number; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC. Causal arguments are used to adapt the above meta-algorithm by averaging out the context. The results of the two ranking procedures are in line with the experts’ expectations
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Dufournet, Marine. "Quantification du biais de sélection en sécurité routière : apport de l’inférence causale." Thesis, Lyon, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LYSE1244/document.
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Les principaux facteurs de l'insécurité routière sont connus, et l'enjeu réside aujourd'hui dans la mesure de l'effet d'un facteur, et la hiérarchisation de l'ensemble des causes intervenant dans la survenue de l'accident. Toutefois, les données disponibles concernent généralement que des accidentés. En l'absence de non-accidentés, l'épidémiologiste du risque routier se heurte à une sélection extrême. Une des solutions classiques est d'utiliser des analyses en responsabilité, et de mesurer l'effet causal d'un facteur sur le risque d'être responsable d'un accident. Néanmoins, la validité des analyses en responsabilité repose sur l'hypothèse, discutable, que les non-responsables sont représentatifs des circulants. L'objectif de cette thèse est donc de déterminer si les données disponibles d'accidentés permettent de fournir, via les analyses en responsabilité, des estimations des effets causaux sans biais, et notamment sans un biais de sélection résiduel. Nous montrons dans cette thèse que, dès lors que l'inclusion dépend de la gravité de l'accident, et que le facteur étudié a un impact sur la vitesse, il est impossible d'estimer l'effet causal du facteur sur le risque d'être responsable de l'accident grave sans un biais de sélection résiduel. Ce résultat est tout d'abord démontré de manière formelle, grâce à l'utilisation des modèles causaux structuraux. Ces modèles sont fondés sur une structure graphique, le DAG, qui représente les différentes relations entre les variables. Ce DAG permet la description des variables réellement observées, mais également des variables contrefactuelles, variables observables dans un monde contrefactuel où l'on aurait fixé l'exposition à une certaine valeur. L'effet causal étant défini à partir de ces variables contrefactuelles partiellement observées, c'est la structure du DAG qui permet de déterminer si l'effet causal peut être estimé en fonction des variables observées. Or, la structure du DAG conduisant à la survenue d'un accident grave ne permet pas d'exprimer l'effet causal du facteur étudié sur la responsabilité de l'accident grave en fonction des distributions observées sur les accidentés graves. Conditionner les estimations sur les accidentés graves correspond à ajuster sur une variable du DAG appelée « collider », et ainsi à introduire un biais dit de collision. En générant un modèle relativement simple, nous donnons à nos résultats théoriques une illustration numérique. En effet, lorsque les données ne dépendent pas de la gravité de l'accident, ou que le facteur étudié n'a pas d'effet sur la vitesse, la mesure estimable à partir des analyses en responsabilité est une mesure sans biais de l'effet causal, sous certaines hypothèses de prévalences faibles. Lorsque l'inclusion dépend de la gravité de l'accident, il existe un biais et ce biais induit par les analyses en responsabilité est d'autant plus grand que l'intensité de la relation entre le facteur et la vitesse, et celle entre la vitesse et l'accident est grand. Les schémas d'étude présentés permettent d'approcher des situations où le facteur étudié serait l'alcool ou le cannabis. Dans le cas de l'alcool, il apparait que sous le modèle simple considéré, la mesure d'association estimable serait une sous-estimation de l'effet causal. En revanche, dans le cas du cannabis, la mesure d'association correspondrait à une sur-estimation de l'effet causal. D'autre part, les outils de l'inférence causale nous ont permis de fournir une description formelle de la validité externe et interne, ainsi qu'une description formelle de la mesure d'association estimable via les analyses en responsabilité. Cette question de la validité interne d'une mesure se pose dans d'autres champs d'application que la sécurité routière. Elle se pose notamment dans le cas du paradoxe de l'obésité [etc...]Many factors associated with the risk and severity of road accidents are now widely considered as causal : alcohol, speed, usage of a mobile phone... Therefore, questions asked by decision-makers now mostly concern the magnitude of their causal effects, as well as the burden of deaths or victims attributable to these various causes of accident. One particularity of road safety epidemiology is that available data generally describe drivers and vehicles involved in road accidents only, or even severe road accidents only. This extreme selection precludes the estimation of causal effects. To circumvent this absence of « control » population of non-crash involved drivers, it is common to use responsibility analysis and to assess the causal effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident among involved drivers. The underlying assumption is that non-responsible drivers represent a random sample of the general driving population that was « selected » to crash by circumstances beyond their control and therefore have the same risk factor profile as other drivers on the road at the same time. However, this randomness assumption is questionable. The objective of this thesis is to determine whether available data in road safety allow us to assess causal effects on responsibility without a residual selection bias. We show that a good approximation of causal effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible is possible only if the inclusion into the dataset does not depend on the severity of the accident, or if the given factor has no effect on speed. This result is shown by using the Structural Causal Model (SCM) framework. The SCM framework is based on a causal graph : the DAG (directed acyclic graph), which represents the relationships among variables. The DAG allows the description of what we observe in the actual world, but also what we would have observed in counterfactual worlds, if we could have intervened and forced the exposure to be set to a given level. Causal effects are then defined by using counterfactual variables, and it is the DAG’s structure which determines whether causal effects are identifiable, or recoverable, and estimable from the distribution of observed variables. However, the assumptions embedded in the DAG which describes the occurence of a severe accident does not ensure that a causal odds ratios is expressible in terms of the observable distribution. Conditioning the estimations on involved drivers in a severe crash correspond to conditioning on a variable in the DAG called « collider », and to create a « collider bias ». We present numerical results to illustrate our theoretical arguments and the magnitude of the bias between the estimable association measure and some causal effects. Under the simple generative model considered, we show that, when the inclusion depends on the severity of the accident, the bias between the estimable association measure and causal effect is larger than the relation between the exposure and speed, or speed and the occurrence of a severe accident is strong. Moreover, the presented designs allow us to describe some situations where the exposure could be alcohol or cannabis intoxication. In the case of alcohol, where alcohol and speed are positively correlated, the estimable associational effect underestimates the causal effect. In the case of cannabis, where cannabis and speed are negatively correlated, the estimable associational effect overestimates the causal effect. On the other hand, we provide a formal definition of internal and external validity, and a counterfactual interpretation of the estimable quantity in the presence of selection bias, when causal effects are not recoverable. This formal interpretation of the estimable quantity in the presence of selection bias is not only useful in the context of responsibility analyses. It is for instance useful to explain the obesity paradox
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Prévot, Pierre. "Développement d'outils académiques pour la conception et la sûreté de réacteurs innovants : premières applications au dimensionnement de SMR refroidis à l'eau légère et chargés en thorium." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018GREAY041/document.
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Les réacteurs de 4ème génération ont pour objectif l’avènement d’un nucléaire durable susceptible de soutenir la transition énergétique. Anticipant un possible retard, dû à des difficultés techniques et économiques, des solutions innovantes inspirées des technologies actuelles (REP) sont à l’étude. Ces réacteurs à haute conversion nécessitent le développement d’outils académiques simples et robustes adaptés aux phases de la conception et capables :- D’évaluer les performances du combustible (burnup). Cet aspect est géré par l’environnement C++ SMURE (Serpent/MCNP Utility for Reactor Evolution), ici adapté et complété pour modéliser l’évolution du combustible à l’échelle de l’assemblage comme à l’échelle du cœur.- D’évaluer les performances de sûreté, ce qui nécessite le couplage entre la neutronique, ici approximée par la théorie de la diffusion et résolue par la NDM (Nodal Drift Method), et la thermohydraulique dont le traitement est simplifié dans le code BATH (Basic Approach to ThermalHydraulics). Le couplage NDM/BATH a fait l’objet d’une validation sur un benchmark d’éjection de grappe.Nos outils et méthodes de conception sont appliqués au dimensionnement de SMR sous-modérés à eau légère fonctionnant soit au Th/U soit au Th/Pu. Outre les critères usuels de conception (i.e. facteur de forme), il s’est avéré nécessaire, pour la crédibilité du concept, de spécifier la gestion de la réactivité, ce qui a mené au développement d’une méthodologie d’optimisation des poisons consommables. L’analyse de sûreté a permis de poser de nouveaux critères de conception, notamment sur le niveau maximal de sous-modération permettant d’éviter la crise d’ébullition nucléée. Cela a également mis en lumière les implications sur la sûreté de certains choix de conception comme le fonctionnement avec un inventaire réduit en bore solubleThe Generation IV of nuclear reactors aims at making the nuclear energy a sustainable power source, able to contribute efficiently to the energetic transition. To anticipate the delay of this Gen. IV, innovative retro-fitted nuclear reactors with high level of conversion are studied. The conception of such reactors needs the development of a flexible and robust academical tool box in order to:- Evaluate fuel performance. This is done by means of SMURE (Serpent/MCNP Utility for Reactor Evolution), the dedicated CNRS C++ framework, which is adapted to perform burnup calculation both at assembly scale and at core scale.- Evaluate safety performance. This implies coupled transient simulation between neutronics and thermohydraulics. Neutronics is handled by the Nodal Drift Method (NDM) which solves the diffusion equations while thermohydraulics is simplified and computed by the code Basic Approach to ThermalHydraulics (BATH). This coupling between NDM/BATH has been validated on a Rod Ejection Accident (REA) benchmark.Ours tools and methods are applied on the design of sub-moderated water-cooled SMR cores using either Th/U or Th/Pu fuel. In addition to basic conception criteria such as the form factor, the reactivity management has been investigated in details, which has led to the development of a new methodology for optimal used of burnable poisons. The safety analysis against REA highlights new conceptions limits, in particular on the maximal sub-moderating ratio in order to avoid nucleate boiling. It also reveals the consequences on the reactor safety of some design choices such as low soluble boron inventory
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Wang, Bihao. "Geometrical and contextual scene analysis for object detection and tracking in intelligent vehicles." Thesis, Compiègne, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015COMP2197/document.
Full textAbstract:
Pour les véhicules intelligents autonomes ou semi-autonomes, la perception constitue la première tâche fondamentale à accomplir avant la décision et l’action. Grâce à l’analyse des données vidéo, Lidar et radar, elle fournit une représentation spécifique de l’environnement et de son état, à travers l’extraction de propriétés clés issues des données des capteurs. Comparé à d’autres modalités de perception telles que le GPS, les capteurs inertiels ou les capteurs de distance (Lidar, radar, ultrasons), les caméras offrent la plus grande quantité d’informations. Grâce à leur polyvalence, les caméras permettent aux systèmes intelligents d’extraire à la fois des informations contextuelles de haut niveau et de reconstruire des informations géométriques de la scène observée et ce, à haute vitesse et à faible coût. De plus, la technologie de détection passive des caméras permet une faible consommation d’énergie et facilite leur miniaturisation. L’utilisation des caméras n’est toutefois pas triviale et pose un certain nombre de questions théoriques liées à la façon dont ce capteur perçoit son environnement. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons un système de détection d’objets mobiles basé seule- ment sur l’analyse d’images. En effet, dans les environnements observés par un véhicule intelligent, les objets en mouvement représentent des obstacles avec un risque de collision élevé, et ils doivent être détectés de manière fiable et robuste. Nous abordons le problème de la détection d’objets mobiles à partir de l’extraction du contexte local reposant sur une segmentation de la route. Après transformation de l’image couleur en une image invariante à l’illumination, les ombres peuvent alors être supprimées réduisant ainsi leur influence négative sur la détection d’obstacles. Ainsi, à partir d’une sélection automatique de pixels appartenant à la route, une région d’intérêt où les objets en mouvement peuvent apparaître avec un risque de collision élevé, est extraite. Dans cette zone, les pixels appartenant à des objets mobiles sont ensuite identifiés à l’aide d’une approche plan+parallaxe. À cette fin, les pixels potentiellement mobiles et liés à l’effet de parallaxe sont détectés par une méthode de soustraction du fond de l’image; puis trois contraintes géométriques différentes: la contrainte épipolaire, la contrainte de cohérence structurelle et le tenseur trifocal, sont appliquées à ces pixels pour filtrer ceux issus de l’effet de parallaxe. Des équations de vraisemblance sont aussi proposées afin de combiner les différents contraintes d’une manière complémentaire et efficace. Lorsque la stéréovision est disponible, la segmentation de la route et la détection d’obstacles peuvent être affinées en utilisant une segmentation spécifique de la carte de disparité. De plus, dans ce cas, un algorithme de suivi robuste combinant les informations de l’image et la profondeur des pixels a été proposé. Ainsi, si l’une des deux caméras ne fonctionne plus, le système peut donc revenir dans un mode de fonctionnement monoculaire ce qui constitue une propriété importante pour la fiabilité et l’intégrité du système de perception. Les différents algorithmes proposés ont été testés sur des bases de données d’images publiques en réalisant une évaluation par rapport aux approches de l’état de l’art et en se comparant à des données de vérité terrain. Les résultats obtenus sont prometteurs et montrent que les méthodes proposées sont efficaces et robustes pour différents scénarios routiers et les détections s’avèrent fiables notamment dans des situations ambiguësFor autonomous or semi-autonomous intelligent vehicles, perception constitutes the first fundamental task to be performed before decision and action/control. Through the analysis of video, Lidar and radar data, it provides a specific representation of the environment and of its state, by extracting key properties from sensor data with time integration of sensor information. Compared to other perception modalities such as GPS, inertial or range sensors (Lidar, radar, ultrasonic), the cameras offer the greatest amount of information. Thanks to their versatility, cameras allow intelligent systems to achieve both high-level contextual and low-level geometrical information about the observed scene, and this is at high speed and low cost. Furthermore, the passive sensing technology of cameras enables low energy consumption and facilitates small size system integration. The use of cameras is however, not trivial and poses a number of theoretical issues related to how this sensor perceives its environmen. In this thesis, we propose a vision-only system for moving object detection. Indeed,within natural and constrained environments observed by an intelligent vehicle, moving objects represent high risk collision obstacles, and have to be handled robustly. We approach the problem of detecting moving objects by first extracting the local contextusing a color-based road segmentation. After transforming the color image into illuminant invariant image, shadows as well as their negative influence on the detection process can be removed. Hence, according to the feature automatically selected onthe road, a region of interest (ROI), where the moving objects can appear with a high collision risk, is extracted. Within this area, the moving pixels are then identified usin ga plane+parallax approach. To this end, the potential moving and parallax pixels a redetected using a background subtraction method; then three different geometrical constraints : the epipolar constraint, the structural consistency constraint and the trifocaltensor are applied to such potential pixels to filter out parallax ones. Likelihood equations are also introduced to combine the constraints in a complementary and effectiveway. When stereo vision is available, the road segmentation and on-road obstacles detection can be refined by means of the disparity map with geometrical cues. Moreover, in this case, a robust tracking algorithm combining image and depth information has been proposed. If one of the two cameras fails, the system can therefore come back to a monocular operation mode, which is an important feature for perception system reliability and integrity. The different proposed algorithms have been tested on public images data set with anevaluation against state-of-the-art approaches and ground-truth data. The obtained results are promising and show that the proposed methods are effective and robust on the different traffic scenarios and can achieve reliable detections in ambiguous situations
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Zapletal, Jan. "Využití českých a evropských informačních dopravních systémů při přepravě nebezpečných věcí po silnici." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-232922.
Full textAbstract:
The topic of my thesis is an application of Czech and European transport systems for shipping dangerous articles by road transport. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first one is pointed to importance of effective legislation in the Czech Republic and the European Union, which is dedicated to shipping the dangerous articles by road transport. Also it regards to risks of accidents and possible ecologic impacts to an environment. This part compares the amount of traffic accidents in the Czech Republic and states of the EU in a frame of ADR. It shows the risks related to shipping the dangerous articles by road transport. The closing part belongs to important elements of safe transportation of dangerous matters. The second part of the thesis analyses current state of shipping information systems in the Czech Republic and in the European Union. There is the analysis, the suggestions for improvement of the systems´ efficiency and its application in the Czech Republic. The closing part belongs to my own project of shipping information system.
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Dejan, Anđelković. "Идентификација опасних места на путевима применом континуалне дисперзионе анализе." Phd thesis, Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Fakultet tehničkih nauka u Novom Sadu, 2019. https://www.cris.uns.ac.rs/record.jsf?recordId=110255&source=NDLTD&language=en.
Full textAbstract:
У оквиру истраживања ове докторске дисертације креиран је новиоригинални метод за идентификацију опасних места на путевимазаснован на континуалној анализи варијансе (АНОВЕ). Метод, на основустатистичких показатеља даје одређене карактеристике(сигнификантности) односно разлике или сличности измеђупосматраних група. Под појмом „група“ подразумевају се краће путнедеонице пута стандардне дужине (суб-деонице) на којима се уодређеном временском периоду десио одређени број саобраћајнихнезгода. Међусобним поређењем тих група (суб-деоница), као ипоређењем тих група (суб-деоница) са целим скупом (целомпосматраном путном деоницом коју чине све суб-деонице), добијају сеодређене статистичке вредности сигнификантности односно значајностиразлике или сличности међу њима. Ти показатељи дају одговарајућеоцене посматраних суб-деоница у погледу безбедности односно небезбедности тих суб-деоница.U okviru istraživanja ove doktorske disertacije kreiran je novioriginalni metod za identifikaciju opasnih mesta na putevimazasnovan na kontinualnoj analizi varijanse (ANOVE). Metod, na osnovustatističkih pokazatelja daje određene karakteristike(signifikantnosti) odnosno razlike ili sličnosti izmeđuposmatranih grupa. Pod pojmom „grupa“ podrazumevaju se kraće putnedeonice puta standardne dužine (sub-deonice) na kojima se uodređenom vremenskom periodu desio određeni broj saobraćajnihnezgoda. Međusobnim poređenjem tih grupa (sub-deonica), kao ipoređenjem tih grupa (sub-deonica) sa celim skupom (celomposmatranom putnom deonicom koju čine sve sub-deonice), dobijaju seodređene statističke vrednosti signifikantnosti odnosno značajnostirazlike ili sličnosti među njima. Ti pokazatelji daju odgovarajućeocene posmatranih sub-deonica u pogledu bezbednosti odnosno nebezbednosti tih sub-deonica.
In the framework of the research of this doctoral dissertation, a new originalmethod for the identification of dangerous locations on roads based oncontinual analysis of variance (ANOVE) was created. The method, based onstatistical indicators, gives certain characteristics (significance), ie differencesor similarities between the observed groups. The term "group" means shorterroad sections of standard length (subsections) where a certain number oftraffic accidents occurred during a certain period of time. By comparing thesegroups (subsections) with each other, as well as by comparing these groups(subsections) with the whole set (the entire observed road section consistingof all subsections), certain statistical values of significance or significance ofthe difference or similarity between them are obtained. These indicatorsprovide appropriate assessments of the observed subsections in terms of thesafety or not the safety of these subsections.
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Ralaidovy, Ambinintsoa Haritiana. "Efficiency in health ressource allocation : three empirical studies in Eastern Sub-Sahara Africa and Southeast Asia." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019CLFAD016.
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La définition des priorités en matière de santé, dans le contexte de la couverture sanitaire universelle, met l'accent sur trois valeurs : améliorer la santé de la population, garantir l'égalité d'accès aux services et la qualité de ceux-ci et éviter l'appauvrissement des usagers ou la sous-utilisation des services par ceux-ci en raison de dépenses non remboursables. L’efficience allocative peut être mesurée par rapport à l'une quelconque de ces valeurs, ou par rapport à l'ensemble, par différentes variantes de l'analyse coût-efficacité. Dans cette thèse, nous utilisons la « Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis », une approche normalisée développée par le programme « Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective » de l’Organisation Mondiale de la Santé, (WHO-CHOICE), qui peut être appliquée à toutes les interventions dans différents contextes. En utilisant cette approche, notre travail de thèse fournit une estimation quantitative de l'efficience allocative des ressources pour trois groupes de problèmes de santé : les maladies transmissibles, les maladies non transmissibles, les accidents de la circulation, en mettant l'accent sur deux régions économiquement et épidémiologiquement différentes : l'Afrique subsaharienne de l’Est et l'Asie du Sud-Est. Nos objectifs étant d’éclairer les débats sur les politiques de santé, d’améliorer le corpus mondial de connaissances sur le rapport coût-efficacité de différentes interventions en fournissant davantage d’informations sur l’efficience de l’allocation de ressources pour les trois groupes de problèmes de santé précités et de contribuer aux discussions sur l’élaboration des programmes de soins de santé universelsPriority setting in health, in the context of Universal Health Coverage, emphasizes three values: improving population health, ensuring equity in access to and quality of services and avoiding impoverishment or underutilization of services as a result of out-of-pocket expenditures. Allocative efficiency can be measured with respect to any one of these values, or with respect to all together by different variants of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. In this thesis, we use the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, a standardized approach developed by the World Health Organization’s programme, ‘Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective’ (WHO-CHOICE) that can be applied to all interventions in different settings. This thesis provides a quantitative assessment of allocative efficiency within three health categories: communicable diseases, noncommunicable diseases, and road traffic injuries, focusing on two economically and epidemiologically diverse regions: Eastern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Our objectives are to inform health policy debates, improve the world’s body of knowledge on the cost-effectiveness of different interventions by providing more information on the allocative efficiency in those three disease groups and contribute to discussions on Universal Health Care packages
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Lin, Li Zhang, and 林立章. "Applying Survival Analysis Method to Analysis of Long Road Tunnel Accident." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34526028189155347309.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立中央大學
土木工程學系
101
Based on the main terrain of Taiwan (mountains, hills, topographic), the economic development has obviously gap between east and west side. In order to balance the economic development on both sides of Taiwan, government has developing numbers of highways and speed roads. Even though, the comprehensive development still possess barriers which government has to open-up tunnels for more roads construction. Besides, since 2005, the era of long road tunnels has begun by continually tunnels opening such as the tunnels of Baguashan and Hsuehshan Tunnel which increase the general risk of traffic accidents in tunnel of Taiwan. According to overseas traffic accident cases of tunnels, it will be more difficult to evacuate the accident in tunnel than the accident on the road because of the closure terrain. The traffic accident in tunnel usually could cause seriously humanity and financial damage. In order to avoid the occurrence of serious accident in tunnel, this thesis would not only reference on the past database of traffic accidents, but also use the theory of survival analysis to analyze the interval periods of accident in tunnel to seek for the variables which cause the accidents. Those variables could be classified to three categories, ‘tunnel geometric design’, ‘tunnel traffic’, and ‘traffic control facilities’. The variables would usually use with the regulations of the usage of road to define and come out the final variables and contrast to Cox model. From the research of accident in tunnels, there are 25% chance over 81 days of next accident happen; and 50% chance over 39 days; and 75% chance over 14 days. The final examination came out the results of tunnel length, daily heavy traffic, heavy vehicle control, and variable speed limit signs which possess prominence demonstration to Cox model and also could be explain effectively to the interval period of accident in tunnels.
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CHING, LIAO LAN, and 廖嵐卿. "Analysis of Freeway Special Road Alignment and Accident-Related Factors." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64432815478393962602.
Full textAbstract:
碩士逢甲大學
運輸科技與管理學系
104
The freeway system is the artery of Taiwan transportation. According to the statistics, the density of freeway in Taiwan is 291.6 km/10,000 km2, which is ranked fifth worldwide after Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Germany. The average daily traffic has reached 1.52 million/time. To deal with the requirement of high volume and quality transportation, the highway linear and geometric design is highly related to driver’s traffic safety. Highway geometric design is divided into horizontal alignment, vertical profile, cross-section, and so on. Poor design of highway geometric will influence the driver’s judge and his driving behavior, increasing the probability of accident. In view of understanding the relevance of freeway alignment and accident, it is necessary to study the relationship. National Freeway No. 3, also called Formosa, is Taiwan’s longest highway of length 432.9 km and the second north-south highway. The main function of National Freeway No. 3 is to share the almost full traffic loading of Freeway No. 1, and also has the goal of balancing the urban and rural development. The line of Freeway No. 3 mainly goes through the western towns and rural areas, while promoting the development along the region. This study was to explore the interaction of characteristics of road sections between Xiangshan and Changhua, the traffic, and the factors of accident. The study was expected to understand the pattern of road alignment and accidents, and tried to identify the road sections of more accidents. Then an appropriate improvement and warning plan can be prepared for the accident prone roads.
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Ndlovu, Lindokuhle Angel. "An agenda setting analysis : the application of Kingdon's framework to the Road Accident Fund (RAF)." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10413/1989.
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This study aimed at exploring the agenda setting process of the Road Accident
Fund (RAF), a road accident compensation system operating in South Africa
using Kingdon's model of Agenda Setting. This study focused on the period
between 1996 when the RAF was introduced to 2005 when the focus in the Fund
was put mainly on how to deal with fraud and corruption issues. When the RAF
was put into place, the main aim was to establish a compensation system that
will be able to deal with the effects of road accidents that the people suffer.
These are mostly the vulnerable road users and public transport passengers who
account for most of the road casualties. However there has been a shift in the
focus of the Road Accident Fund Act of 1996, hence the majority of the people
who were meant to be beneficiaries ended up not benefiting from the Fund due
to corruption. A theoretical framework based on the work of John Kingdon (1995)
is used to explore the developments in the RAF that led to the Road Accident
Benefit Scheme (RABS) as a proposed system.
Qualitative research method was used in order to trace the unfolding of the
events and action of participants in the RAF in order to see whether the
developments in the Fund can be explained using Kingdon's framework of
agenda setting. Historical documents were used to collect data and to trace the
chronology of events. These include formal records, including Annual Reports on
the RAF and media articles, including newspapers. Content analysis method was
done on material such as: Annual Reports on the Road Accident Fund, Meeting
Minutes, Parliamentary Proceedings, Newspaper Articles and Speeches,
primarily from the Department of Transport in order to analyse data.
The findings of this study revealed that using Kingdon's theory of agenda setting,
it is possible to come to a better understanding of the agenda setting process
that led to a current state of the RAF. In the RAF case study, the three policy streams proposed by Kingdon namely: problem stream, policy stream and
political stream, were identified. In the problem stream, the financial 'crisis'
together with feedback from the formal as well as the media reports that
indicated that the financial condition of the RAF was getting worse served as an
indication that there was a problem in the Fund. Several ideas were generated in
the policy stream of the Fund. Amongst other things, studies, discussions,
hearings, meetings and conferences conducted by the RAF Commission for the
purpose of investigating the Fund and come up with alternative solutions, created
pressure for policy change. While RABS which incorporated in it a "no fault"
system of compensation was proposed as a solution by the RAF Commission,
liquidation of the Fund was also a concern. In the political stream, the national
mood, change of administration and interest group pressure were evident and
contributed to the agenda setting of the RAF. Media reports also contributed to
the whole agenda setting process of the Fund.
The implications of the analysis for future processes are drawn.Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, [2008].
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Osidele, Olujimi Agbolahan. "An analysis of patterns and trends of road traffic injuries and fatalities in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa." Diss., 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11602/629.
Full textAbstract:
MENVSCDepartment of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences
Road transport safety is challenging globally, especially in developing countries, where it affects both road users and governments. The aim of road traffic safety is to ensure a reduction or total eradication of road fatalities and other injuries that are related to road accidents resulting from public road usage. In South Africa, one of the major problems faced by the Department of Roads and Transport is the issue of road traffic accidents. Between 2004 and 2010 the annual road traffic accidents increased to over 500,000 and 28,000 or more are fatal, which has led to serious injuries, as reported by the Department. This study analysed patterns and trends of road traffic injuries and fatalities in Vhembe District Municipality from January 2011 to August 2015. It also mapped road accident hotpots using Getis hotspot analysis and linear referencing in ArcGIS 10.2 spatial statistics extension. The research further established correlation between accidents spots and road design geometry. Factors that are responsible for road traffic accidents leading to fatalities, injuries, and loss of property were also examined. Pedestrian behavioural attitude towards adhering to road safety measures was studied using systematic random sampling, field observation and questionnaires. Finally, the study investigated if there has been any significant reduction in the road traffic injuries and fatalities occurrence rate within the last five years in Vhembe District since the commencement of World Health Organisation; Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020. It was found out that most of the accidents occurred as a result of changes in human social behaviour, negligence and indulgence. The passenger road users category is the worst affected followed by drivers and pedestrians. It was found out that road crashes have decreased by 35% since the commencement of decade of action for road safety. The composition of road traffic injuries and fatalities since 2011 shows a reduction in the numbers of victims recorded. An average of 86 fatalities, 326 serious injuries and 701 minor injuries occurred per annum within the study period. There was high significant value (p 0.05) among all the categories of road users understudied. The differences observed were real and did not occurred by chance for the 5year period (2011 – 2015).
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Chen, Pin-Jia, and 陳品嘉. "The Application of Survival Analysis on Road Accident -- A Case Study on Bus Company." Thesis, 1998. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74945967277936226415.
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Mphekgwana, Modupi Peter. "Analysis of road traffic accidents in Limpopo Province using generalized linear modelling." Thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/3483.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020Background: Death and economic losses due to road traffic accidents (RTA) are huge global public health and developmental problems and need urgent attention. Each year nearly 1.24 million people die and millions suffer various forms of disability as a result of road accidents. This puts road traffic injuries (RTIs) as the eighth leading cause of death globally and RTIs are set to become the fifth leading cause of death worldwide by the year 2030 unless urgent actions are taken. Aim: In this paper, we investigate factors that contribute to road traffic deaths (RTDs) in the Limpopo province of South Africa using models such as the generalized linear models (GLM) and zero inflated models. Methods: The study was based on retrospective data that comprised of reports of 18,029 road traffic accidents and 4,944 road traffic deaths over the years 2009 – 2015. Generalized linear modelling and zero-inflated models were used to identify factors and determine their relationships to RTDs. Results: The data was split into two categories: deaths that occurred during holidays and those that occurred during non-holiday periods. It was found that the following variables, namely, Monday, human actions, vehicle conditions and vehicle makes, were significant predictors of RTDs during holidays. On the other hand, during non-holiday periods, weekend, Tuesday, Wednesday, national road, provincial road, sedan, LDV, combi and bus were found to be significant predictors of road traffic deaths. Conclusion: GLM techniques, such as the standard Poisson regression model and the negative binomial (NB) model, did little to explain the zero excess, therefore, zero-inflated models, such as zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), were found to be useful in explaining excess zeros. Recommendation: The study recommends that the government should make more human power available during the festive seasons, such as the December holidays, and over weekends.
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HUNG, YU-SHENG, and 洪鈺盛. "A Road Risk Alert System Based on Data Reconstruction and Analysis of Traffic Accident Data and Violation Data." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3jqybx.
Full textAbstract:
碩士逢甲大學
資訊工程學系
106
Traffic violation is the main cause of traffic accident. The best way to prevent traffic accident is not only follow traffic regulations but also being aware of environment as possible as you can, which is known as defensive driving. In this paper, we propose a road risk alert system to help drivers to prevent accident based on analysis of traffic accident data and traffic violation data. At first, we simply analyze data after data preprocessing to understand the data. Decision tree is deployed to extract the importance of attributes and frequent pattern mining technique is deployed to extract nearby accident frequent patterns. Besides, the accident frequent patterns and the statistics of nearby historical traffic violation records will be integrated as alert message. However, the violation data does not include GPS coordinates but an address attribute with nine Chinese characters. To cope with this problem, we correct part of incomplete addresses and use Google’s Road API and Geocoding API to convert driver’s GPS coordinates into a set of road names near the driver, hence we can provide local statistic result of violation data based on these nearby road names. To enhance system performance and lower the dependence of using Google’s APIs, in advance, we approximately extract the nearby road names from 12,000 points spread around entire Taichung City and load the nearby road name data into a prefix tree according to GPS coordinates. After early extraction process, we can simply use the driver’s GPS coordinates to search out the nearest data stored in prefix tree and obtain analysis result. For those new GPS points requested from drivers, our system will convert and store them real-timely. Finally, we propose analysis results during analysis phase and evaluate the performance of our system.
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ŠORTNER, Milan. "Analýza příčin chybového jednání řidičů vedoucí ke vzniku dopravní nehody." Master's thesis, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-53248.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis is the current stat of research on Czech roads.The main task was to find the major cause of errors in the drivers` conduct of operations. The analysis is focused on the impact of 4 categories: environmental impact, the impact of the car, the influence of work on human behavior and influence the very man to his work activities were the cause further specified. In my research is also included a questionnaire, whose job is to summarize the views of drivers, both men and women of the current situation. The analysis of individual factors were designed as field measurements, with emphasis placed on selected offenses against the rules. This was particularly aimed at measuring the impact of work performed by humans in these respects: respect the maximum speed limit, failing to stop at places where it's due to traffic signs, and use of safety belts by the driver of the vehicle.The influence of environment was tested, as well as the suitability of sites dealing with traffic, especially pedestrian crossings. The influence of people itself is then characterized in the next section. The analytical part has the task to summarize and compare data obtained from measurements, which are listed in the Experimental section. The conclusion is a list of recommendations for individual areas, which should bring improvements to the current situation.