Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Road accident statistics'

Thesis (M.Ing.)--Stellenbosch University, 2001.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A road safety remedial programme has as an objective the improvement of road transportation safety by applying road safety engineering remedial measures to hazardous road network elements in a manner that will be economically efficient. Since accident data is the primary manifestation of poor safety levels it must be analysed in manner that will support the overall objective of economic efficiency. Three steps in the process of implementing a road safety remedial programme, that rely on the systematic analysis of accident data, are the identification of hazardous locations, the ranking of hazardous locations and the evaluation of remedial measure effectiveness. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be enhanced by using appropriate methodologies to measure safety, identify and rank hazardous locations and to determine the effectiveness of road safety remedial measures. There are a number of methodologies available to perform these tasks, although some perform much better than other. Methodologies based on the Empirical Bayesian approach generally provide better results than the Conventional methods. Bayesian methodologies are not often used in South Africa. To do so would require the additional training of students and engineering professionals as well as more research by tertiary and other research institutions. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be compromised by using poor quality accident data. In South Africa the quality of accident data is generally poor and should more attention be given to the proper management and control of accident data. This thesis will report on, investigate and evaluate Bayesian and Conventional accident data analysis methodologies.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram is om op die mees koste effektiewe manier die veiligheid van onveilige padnetwerkelemente te verbeter deur die toepassing van ingenieursmaatreëls. Aangesien padveiligheid direk verband hou met verkeersongelukke vereis die koste effektiewe implementering van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram die doelgerigte en korrekte ontleding van ongeluksdata. Om 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram te implementeer word die ontleding van ongeluksdata verlang vir die identifisering en priortisering van gevaarkolle, sowel as om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Die koste effektiwiteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram kan verbeter word deur die regte metodes te kies om padveiligheid te meet, gevaarkolle te identifiseer en te prioritiseer en om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Daar is verskeie metodes om hierdie ontledings te doen, alhoewel sommige van die metodes beter is as ander. Die 'Bayesian' metodes lewer oor die algemeen beter resultate as die gewone konvensionele metodes. 'Bayesian' metodes word nie. in Suid Afrika toegepas nie. Om dit te doen sal addisionele opleiding van studente en ingenieurs vereis, sowel as addisionele navorsing deur universiteite en ander navorsing instansies. Die gebruik van swak kwaliteit ongeluksdata kan die integriteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram benadeel. Die kwaliteit van ongeluksdata in Suid Afrika is oor die algemeen swak en behoort meer aandag gegee te word aan die bestuur en kontrole van ongeluksdata. Die doel van hierdie tesis is om verslag te doen oor 'Bayesian' en konvensionele metodes wat gebruik kan word om ongeluksdata te ontleed, dit te ondersoek en te evalueer.

Šiame magistro darbe išanalizuota Lietuvos eismo įvykių apskaitos sistema, sudaryta iš duomenų rinkimo, įvedimo ir teikimo proceso, kurį atlieka policijos įstaigų darbuotojai. Darbe išsamiai išnagrinėti Lietuvos norminiai dokumentai, reglamentuojantys eismo įvykių apskaitos procesą. Analizės rezultatams apibendrinti yra skurti pirminių veiksmų, duomenų pasiskirstymo ir teikimo bei ikiteisminio tyrimo medžiagos panaudojimo grafiniai modeliai. Taip pat išsamiai išnagrinėtas Europos Sąjungoje atliekamas eismo įvykių apskaitos procesas. Darbe pateiktas eismo įvykių duomenų apskaitos programinės sistemos detalus vertinimas su rekomendacijomis, kaip patobulinti sistemą siekiant užtikrinti išsamesnius, tikslesnius oficialios statistikos eismo įvykių duomenis. Baigiamojo darbo apimtis – 81 psl. teksto be priedų, 19 lentelių ir 13 paveikslų.
In this Master Thesis analysis of Lithuanian road accident management system, which consists data collecting, adding and provision process have been done. Lithuanian normative documents which governs road accident management process are purely explored in this Master Thesis. To generalize analysis results have been created primary respond, data distribution and provision, data usage of pre-trial process graphical models. Also a part of the work reveals detailed analysis of accident data management of European Union countries. In this paper is provided detailed evaluation of road accident data management software system and recommendations to ensure more detailed road accidents data of official statistics by improving system. Master Thesis consists of 81 pages pure text without appendixes, 19 tables and 13 pictures.

The thesis refers to the issue of road accidents and their prevention in the Czech Republic, seen as a negative phenomenon in modern society. It is divided into two relatively independent parts, theoretical and practical. The theoretical part focuses on a general description of traffic accident and states their main causes. Moreover, it deals with a road accident as a traumatic event having negative effects on life of involved people, especially on the human psyche. At the end of this part you can find basic principles of emergency intervention on casualties of road accidents and organizations which offer free help to road accident casualties. In the practical part of this work there is a study of road accidents that happened in the region of the Czech Republic from the point of view of their causes and the age of the driver.

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation – commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period – to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our model. We conclude that our model accurately predicts future accident counts, with point estimates from the predictive distribution matching observed counts extremely well.

Diploma thesis Selected measurements of the motion of bicycles – braking and ridein the curve analyses problematic manoeuvres of bicycle riders according to the most typical accidents including bikes. There will be given statistics of bikers´ participation on accident amount that happened within last few years. The measurements of bicycles moving around bands of specific radiuses as a situation of most bicycle accidents will be described in the next part of this thesis. There will be also specified the values of average bicycle speeds when driving in curves with various radiuses according to types of bicycles, sex and experiences of the riders and will be an output of this thesis. Further on there will be measurements of braking in the direct line on various surfaces with different types of bikes and different brakes used.

Pedestrians and bicyclists are the most vulnerable road users and suffer the most severe consequences when crashes take place. An extensive literature is available for crash severity in terms of driver safety, but fewer studies have explored non-motorized users' crash severity. Furthermore, most research efforts have examined pedestrian and bicyclist crash severity in urban areas. This study focuses on state roads (mostly outside major urban areas) and aims to identify contributing risk factors of fatal and severe crashes involving pedestrians and bicyclists in state roads. Two ordinal regression models were developed (one for pedestrian and the other for bicyclist crashes) to examine crash severity risk factors. Additional models were developed to investigate road and traffic characteristics that could increase the likelihood of fatal crashes. In the model for pedestrian crash severity risk factors such as age, vehicle type and movement, light conditions, road classification, traffic control device, posted speed limit, location of the pedestrian and wet road surface during clear weather conditions are statistically significant. The bicyclist crash severity model indicates that age, crash location, vehicle movement and alcohol intoxication during dark conditions are statistically significant. In terms of road characteristics and traffic conditions, the models suggested risk factors such as arterials, light conditions, posted speed limit, roadways, and high heavy vehicle volume, increased the odds of a crash being fatal. The results seem to suggest that besides improvements in roadway characteristics, additional countermeasures to reduce crash severity for vulnerable users should include separation of vulnerable users from traffic, educational campaigns, more strict control of alcohol intoxicated drivers, and protection strategies of senior pedestrians.

A statistical analysis was conducted for road traffic accidents and associated casualties in Bangladesh. This was undertaken in order to assist the policymakers to take appropriate steps to be reduced the road traffic accidents and the associated casualties. Secondary data (collecting from Bangladesh government publications) were explored, analysed and modelled statistically. An exploration was undertaken using the averages (per annum) of rates of KSI/ fatal casualty, accident and involved vehicles applying Bar-charts. In addition, annual time series data were investigated using trend lines. A detailed analysis of variances was conducted using the rates (per 10,000 populations) of BRTA traffic accident and casualty data applying mainly non-parametric tests. Time series; one-way and two /three-way classified data are analysed applying linear regression model; Mann-Whitney or Kruskal-Wallis tests and Univariate regression model respectively. Finally, modelling of two/ three-way data was conducted using the frequencies of fatal casualty, fatal accident and involved vehicles applying Poisson regression. The most significant findings from this research were that pedestrians are highly involved in the casualty figures. Fatal hit pedestrian is the main collision type accident. Maximum fatal accidents occur at out of junction. Cities have higher accident and casualty rates than that for non-cities (divisions/ districts, excluding cities). In particular, Rajshahi city and Dhaka city have the highest accident rates. National highways are the main venues of accidents and casualties. Heavy vehicles including buses and trucks are predominantly involved in casualty accident. Implications from this research have been considered and suitable recommendations have been made.

The objective of this thesis is to develop statistical models for multivariate road accident data. Two directions of research are followed: graphical modelling for contingency tables cross-classified by accident characteristics, and hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple accident frequencies of different types modelled jointly. Multi-dimensional tables are analysed and it is shown how to use collapsibility to reduce the dimensionality of the analysis without the problems of Simpson's paradox. It is revealed that accident severity and the number of casualties are associated, and that these variables are mainly influenced by the number of vehicles and speed limit. Graphical chain models allow causal hypotheses to be formulated and it is shown how they are valuable tools for empirical research about road accident characteristics. The hierarchical Bayesian models developed combine generalized linear models with random effects. The novelty of these models consists in the joint modelling of multiple response variables. The models account for overdispersion and they are used for accident prediction and for ranking hazardous sites. All models are fully Bayesian and are fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. It is shown that multiple response variables models are superior to separate univariate response models. Some theoretical problems are examined regarding the maximum likelihood estimation process for the two parameters negative binomial distribution. A condition is given that is equivalent with unique maximum likelihood estimators. The two directions of research are connected by using graphs to describe the models. In addition, a new Bayesian model selection procedure for contingency tables is proposed. This is based on Gibbs sampling and avoids problems associated with asymptotic tests. The conclusions revealed here can help practitioners to design better safety policies and to spend money more wisely on sites that really are dangerous.

The identification of hazardous road locations is important to the improvement of road safety. However, there is still no consensus on the best method of identifying hazardous road locations. While traditional methods, such as the hot spot methodology, focus on the physical distances separating road crashes only, the hot zone methodology takes network contiguity into consideration and treats contiguous road segments as hazardous road locations. Compared with the hot spot method, hot zone methodology is a relatively new direction and there still remain a number of methodological issues in applying the method to the identification of hazardous road locations. Hence, this study aims to provide a GIS-based study on the identification of crash hot zones as hazardous road locations with both link-attribute and event-based approaches. It first explores the general procedures of the two approaches in identifying traffic crash hot zones, and then investigates the characteristics of the two approaches by conducting a range of sensitivity analysis on defining threshold value and crash intensity with both simulated and empirical data. The results suggest that it is better to use a dissolved road network instead of a raw-link-node road network. The segmentation length and the interval of reference points have great impacts on the identification of hot zones, and they are better defined as 100 meters considering the stabilities of the performance. While employing a numerical definition to identify hot zones is a simple and effort-saving approach, using the Monte Carlo method can avoid selection bias in choosing an appropriate number as the threshold value. If the two approaches are compared, it is observed that the link-attribute approach is more likely to cause false negative problem and the event-based approach is prone to false positive problem around road junctions. No matter which method is used, the link-attribute approach requires less computer time in identifying crash hot zones. When a range of environmental variables have to be taken into consideration, the link-attribute approach is superior to the event-based approach in that it is easier for the link-attribute approach to incorporate environmental variables with statistical models. By investigating the hot zone methodology, this research is expected to enrich the theoretical knowledge of the identification of hazardous road locations and to practically provide policy-makers with more information on identifying road hazards. Further research efforts have to be dedicated to the ranking of hot zones and the investigation of false positive and false negative problems.
published_or_final_version
Geography
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy

In this master's thesis I presented a new statistical method KDE+ (Kernel Density Estimation plus) that allows detecting clusters of points on the linear data. I created a self-standing application that enables anybody to try the method and apply it on their own data. One possible usage of the method and application is for the detection of critical roads sections with a high concentration of traffic accidents. Development of the application includes analysis of KDE+ statistical method, design of appropriate program structures and the implementation. Optimization were carried out to achieve higher performance after creating the prototype. At the end the software was validated by analysing vehicle collision data from the police database of the Czech Republic.

Road safety is a major issue affecting the road sector. Road accidents remain a serious impediment to sustainable human development in many of the developing member countries (DMCs) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Road accidents continue to be an important social and economic problem in developing countries like India. Growth in the number of motor vehicles, poor enforcement of traffic safety regulations, poor quality of roads and vehicles, and inadequate public health infrastructures are some of the road safety problems facing in India.

The object of this Thesis is to present a status report on the nature of the government policy towards the Activity plans implemented till now and which has to be implemented later for the reduction of road fatalities and for the safe roads, and also giving the guidelines for financing of remedial measures, institutional framework, physical characteristics of the road, traffic control and calming measures, road safety education and enforcement issues.

The aim of the Activity plans is to analyze the present situation of road safety in India and to indicate main problems in individual sector of the Activity implemented by comparing and taking the examples of some of the ASEAN Region who are successed in implementing in the individual sectors. The effect of the programme to real safety situation is estimated, and further plans could be corrected if it is necessary. Implementation of the goals for the coming years to reduce the number of accidents at maximum extent and give people, the safe and the steady flow of traffic in India. The vision of a tremendous change next 5 to 10 years is based on a big potential for improvement and a joint effort of all involved groups on all levels of traffic safety, centrally coordinated by the National Road Safety Authorities.

The Action Plan is deliberately divided into 14 key Sectors of activity in broadly the same way as the individual country road safety action plans. The sectors involve many different disciplines and a very wide range of multi sector activities but all are based on applying scientific, methodical approaches to the problem. At the end the thesis gives the recommendations and conclusion for the safe Roads in India

A traditional two dimensional (planar) statistical analysis was used to identify the clustering types of North Central Texas traffic fatalities occurring in 2001-2006. Over 3,700 crash locations clustered in ways that were unlike other researched regions. A two dimensional (x and y coordinates) space was manipulated to mimic a one dimensional network to identify the tightest clustering of fatalities in the nearly 400,000 crashes reported from state agencies from 2003-2006. The roadway design was found to significantly affect crash location. A one dimensional (linear) network analysis was then used to measure the statistically significant clustering of flow variables of after dark crashes and daylight crashes. Flow variables were determined to significantly affect crash location after dark. The linear and planar results were compared and the one dimensional, linear analysis was found to be more accurate because it did not over detect the clustering of events on a network.

The dissertation deals with the analysis of roundabout design elements and their impact on accidents. The analysis objective was to identify the important elements of roundabouts that have impact on accidents. In order to achieve this goal, the multifactorial statistical safety assessment method was used on the basis of a representative sample of data, by developing several safety performance functions, verifying them and interpreting the result. Several design elements, which from the point of view of the traffic accident mechanism belong to the infrastructure factor, have been identified: AADT, average diameter, entrance width, entry angle, direct passage angle, location and many others. The original sample contained about 1200 roundabouts, which were reduced to 200 based on data availability. Accident frequencies were monitored between 2009 and 2016, i.e. for eight years, resulting in total 2674 roundabouts accidents. The result is an accident prediction model, developer based on roundabout approach design elements, and map of critical roundabouts, identified based on empirical Bayes estimate of accident frequency. Following approach parameters were identified: AADT, entry angle, distance between collision points, deviation of angles between approaches, presence of apron, presence of bypass, entry type, presence of pedestrian crossing and surrounding area type.

La sécurité routière est une priorité mondiale, européenne et française. Parce que les véhicules légers (ou simplement “les véhicules”) sont évidemment l’un des acteurs principaux de l’activité routière, l'amélioration de la sécurité routière passe nécessairement par l’analyse de leurs caractéristiques accidentologiques. Si les nouveaux véhicules sont développés en bureau d’étude et validés en laboratoire, c’est la réalité accidentologique qui permet de vraiment cerner comment ils se comportent en matière de sécurité secondaire, c’est-à-dire quelle sécurité ils offrent à leurs occupants lors d’un accident. C’est pourquoi les constructeurs souhaitent procéder au classement des générations de véhicules en fonction de leurs niveaux de sécurité secondaire réelle. Nous abordons cette thématique en exploitant les données nationales d’accidents corporels de la route appelées BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). En complément de celles-ci, les données de parc automobile permettent d’associer une classe générationelle (CG) à chaque véhicule. Nous élaborons deux méthodes de classement de CGs en termes de sécurité secondaire. La première produit des classements contextuels, c’est-à-dire des classements de CGs plongées dans des contextes d’accident. La seconde produit des classements globaux, c’est-`a-dire des classements de CGs déterminés par rapport à une distribution de contextes d’accident. Pour le classement contextuel, nous procédons par “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe un nombre réel à toute combinaison de CG et de contexte d’accident ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est sûre dans le contexte d’accident donné. La fonction de score optimale est estimée par “ensemble learning”, sous la forme d’une combinaison convexe optimale de fonctions de score produites par une librairie d’algorithmes de classement par scoring. Une inégalité oracle illustre les performances du méta-algorithme ainsi obtenu. Le classement global est également basé sur le principe de “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe à toute CG un nombre réel ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est jugée sûre globalement. Des arguments causaux permettent d’adapter le méta-algorithme évoqué ci-dessus en s’affranchissant du contexte d’accident. Les résultats des deux méthodes de classement sont conformes aux attentes des experts
Road safety is a world, European and French priority. Because light vehicles (or simply“vehicles”) are obviously one of the main actors of road activity, the improvement of roadsafety necessarily requires analyzing their characteristics in terms of traffic road accident(or simply “accident”). If the new vehicles are developed in engineering department and validated in laboratory, it is the reality of real-life accidents that ultimately characterizesthem in terms of secondary safety, ie, that demonstrates which level of security they offer to their occupants in case of an accident. This is why car makers want to rank generations of vehicles according to their real-life levels of safety. We address this problem by exploiting a French data set of accidents called BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). In addition, fleet data are used to associate a generational class (GC) to each vehicle. We elaborate two methods of ranking of GCs in terms of secondary safety. The first one yields contextual rankings, ie, rankings of GCs in specified contexts of accident. The second one yields global rankings, ie, rankings of GCs determined relative to a distribution of contexts of accident. For the contextual ranking, we proceed by “scoring”: we look for a score function that associates a real number to any combination of GC and a context of accident; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC in the given context. The optimal score function is estimated by “ensemble learning”, under the form of an optimal convex combination of scoring functions produced by a library of ranking algorithms by scoring. An oracle inequality illustrates the performance of the obtained meta-algorithm. The global ranking is also based on “scoring”: we look for a scoring function that associates any GC with a real number; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC. Causal arguments are used to adapt the above meta-algorithm by averaging out the context. The results of the two ranking procedures are in line with the experts’ expectations

Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020
Background: Death and economic losses due to road traffic accidents (RTA) are huge global public health and developmental problems and need urgent attention. Each year nearly 1.24 million people die and millions suffer various forms of disability as a result of road accidents. This puts road traffic injuries (RTIs) as the eighth leading cause of death globally and RTIs are set to become the fifth leading cause of death worldwide by the year 2030 unless urgent actions are taken. Aim: In this paper, we investigate factors that contribute to road traffic deaths (RTDs) in the Limpopo province of South Africa using models such as the generalized linear models (GLM) and zero inflated models. Methods: The study was based on retrospective data that comprised of reports of 18,029 road traffic accidents and 4,944 road traffic deaths over the years 2009 – 2015. Generalized linear modelling and zero-inflated models were used to identify factors and determine their relationships to RTDs. Results: The data was split into two categories: deaths that occurred during holidays and those that occurred during non-holiday periods. It was found that the following variables, namely, Monday, human actions, vehicle conditions and vehicle makes, were significant predictors of RTDs during holidays. On the other hand, during non-holiday periods, weekend, Tuesday, Wednesday, national road, provincial road, sedan, LDV, combi and bus were found to be significant predictors of road traffic deaths. Conclusion: GLM techniques, such as the standard Poisson regression model and the negative binomial (NB) model, did little to explain the zero excess, therefore, zero-inflated models, such as zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), were found to be useful in explaining excess zeros. Recommendation: The study recommends that the government should make more human power available during the festive seasons, such as the December holidays, and over weekends.

My dissertation analyzes the frequency of selected violations of the law in the Czech Republic. In the operation of vehicle on roads that are to blame to a greater or lesser extent in the traffic accident. As a separate chapter in the thesis are fundamental concepts and the individual paragraphs, which are analyzed and used. Also you can find statistics that reflect the evolution of the number of accidents and their consequences. Except resources for the next chapter my diploma papers also show results of lighting, using cell phone and seat belts while driving. Another part is the experimental section. Here are details about my own questionnaire and field measurements. They are transformed into the analytical part of the summarization tables. The synthetic part of thesis compares obtained data in the research and the statistical summary. In the last section, which covers general recommendations for practice are set out possible options which could prevent future violations of the law.

This work describes general view of a traffic accident in order to introdukce non-specific features of traffic accidents. The objective of this work is deeper understanding of this issue, of the difference between the need for improving the participants skills and the repressive measures introduced in the attempt to guarantee the observance of fundamental legal standards.

Στόχος της παρούσας διατριβής είναι η μελέτη των οδικών ατυχημάτων και ο προσδιορισμός των επικίνδυνων θέσεων (μελανών σημείων) στο οδικό δίκτυο της Περιφέρειας Δυτικής Ελλάδας. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, πραγματοποιήθηκε καταγραφή όλων των τροχαίων ατυχημάτων στους Νομούς Αχαΐα, Αιτωλοακαρνανίας και Ηλείας για τη χρονική περίοδο 2000 - 2012. Η συλλογή στοιχείων έγινε από τα κατά τόπους Τμήματα Τροχαίας των Αστυνομικών διευθύνσεων κάθε νομού, για ολόκληρο το οδικό δίκτυο, δηλαδή εθνικό, επαρχιακό και αστικό. Έγινε καταγραφή του κάθε τροχαίου ατυχήματος, του αριθμού νεκρών και τραυματιών, της ημερομηνίας και της ώρας του συμβάντος, της ακριβούς τοποθεσίας, όπως επίσης και των συνθηκών οδοστρώματος και των περιβαλλοντικών συνθηκών που επικρατούσαν τη στιγμή του συμβάντος. Τα στοιχεία που συλλέχθηκαν ομαδοποιήθηκαν κατάλληλα και επεξεργάστηκαν στατιστικά. Στη συνέχεια για κάποια τμήματα των εθνικών οδών της ΠΔΕ έγινε προσδιορισμός των μελανών σημείων με διαφορετικές αριθμητικές και στατιστικές μεθόδους. Δεν έγινε μελέτη των μελανών σημείων για όλο το οδικό δίκτυο της ΠΔΕ καθώς κάτι τέτοιο θα ήταν πέρα από τους σκοπούς της παρούσας διατριβής.
This master thesis aims to study road accidents and identify hotspots at Western Greece Region. First, accidents occurred during 2000 - 2012 at Achaia, Aitoloakarnania and Ilia prefectures were recorded. Each record includes date, time, number of fatalities and injuries, specific location, road and environmental conditions at the moment of the accident. Collected data were grouped and analyzed statistically. Then after reviewing several numerical and statistical methods for hazardous location identification, a selection of methods was made and were applied in order to identify hotspots for some parts of the national road network. Subsequently, conclusions about the condition of the Western Greece Region road network, and the causes of accidents were derived. Finally, proposals for treatment and future research were made.

Child pedestrian injury and mortality is an issue of significant public health concern in the city of Johannesburg, Gauteng, in South Africa. Since there is a paucity of studies in the last decade or more on fatal childhood traffic and non-traffic injuries in Johannesburg, this study aspires to address the disproportion in this domain of research, and provide more recent, and comprehensive empirical evidence over a ten-year period. The overarching aim of this study was to describe and examine the magnitude, circumstances, and neighbourhood characteristics of fatal pedestrian injuries among children (0-14 years) in Johannesburg for the period from 2001 to 2010. More specifically, the objectives of the study were: firstly, to provide a comprehensive epidemiological description of the magnitude, trends and occurrence of pedestrian mortality among children; secondly, to describe and examine the epidemiology of child pedestrian mortality in relation to children as motor vehicle passengers; thirdly, to describe and examine child pedestrian mortality in relation to non-traffic injuries, in particular, burns and drowning; and fourthly, to assess the influence of neighbourhood characteristics on child pedestrian mortality. The study conceptualised pedestrian road safety within an ecological systems framework. The study used quantitative descriptive, and multivariate logistic regression methods of analysis to examine child pedestrian mortality data. The study drew on data from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS) and the Census 2001. The main findings indicated that black, male children aged 5 to 9 years (11.02/100 000) are the most vulnerable, and that mortality occurred predominantly during the afternoons and early evenings (12h00-16h00 and 16h00-21h00), over weekends, during school holidays, and to a lesser extent, during non-holiday months. In addition, neighbourhood characteristics that reflected concentrations of disadvantage, single female-headed households and residentially stable areas were associated with child pedestrian mortality. The study findings highlight the need for critical action in terms of investment in child pedestrian safety research, and appropriate prevention initiatives guided by stringent evidenced-based studies, and the design of safe pedestrian, vehicular and urban environments.
Psychology
D. Phil. (Psychology)

Abstract in English, Tsonga and Zulu
Mitlumbo ya mifambafambo ya le magondzweni i xin’wana xa miringeto (risks) yo biha ku tlula hinkwayo ya swifambo swa le gondzweni emisaveni hinkwayo, leswi yimelaka xiphiqo lexikulu xa swohanyaswin’we-ikhonomi ngopfu-ngopfu eka matiko lama ya ha hluvukaka tanihi Afrika-Dzonga. Ku va ku nyikiwa masungulo yo tiya ya xiikhonomi eka swiboho swa mbekiso ku tirhana na ntlhontlho lowu, i swa nkoka swinene ku hlela ndhurho wa mitlumbo leyi. Mipimanyeto leyi yi tirha tanihi nxopaxopo wa swinghenisiwa swa mbuyelo wa ndhurheriwo ku endlela ku kuma mphakelo wa switirhisiwa wo tirha kahle eka ku nghenelela eka ku tirhana na mitlhontlho leyi vangiwaka hi mitlumbano ya le magondzweni. Tiko ra Afrika-Dzonga a ri nga ri ku pfuxeteni ka mahungu ya mipimanyeto ya midurho ya mitlumbano ya le magondzweni nkarhi na nkarhi, naswona leyi a yi endliwa a yi tirhisa maendlelo lamo soriwa ngopfu yo languta nkoka wa vanhu (human capital). Hikwalaho, mipimanyeto leyi nga kona a yi nga ta va leyi tshembekaka eka ku kunguhata na ku pimaniseka na mipimanyeto ya matiko man’wana. Hi le ka ku landzelela vundzhaku lebyi laha dyondzo leyi yi nga tumbuluka na ku kombisa matirhiselo ya rimba ra ntirho wo katsa (hybrid) ku kambela ndhurho wa mitlumbo ya swifambo swa le magondzweni eAfrika-Dzonga. Rimba leri ri tirhisa endlelo ro kongomisa eka nkoka wa vanhu na ku pfumela ku hakela (willingness-to-pay), eka dyondzo yi ri yin’we. Mipimanyeto ya midurho ya nkoka wa vanhu ya laveka ku va yi pfuna eka ku kunguhata leswaku yi tlakusa swinenenene swihumesiwa swa rixaka, loko hala tlhelo mipimanyeto yo pfumela ku hakela yona yi ri yona yi fanelaka swinene eka ku pfuneta minghenelelo yo tlakusa nhlayiseko wa vanhu hi ku hunguta ku vaviseka na ku fa. Endlelo ro pfumela ku hakela ri tirhisa maendlelo ya swo ka swi nga ri swa makete (contingent valuation) na ya maendlelo yo langa (preference). Khwexinere yo valanga leyi a yi ri na maendlelo yo ka ya nga ri ya swa makete na swilangiwa leswi a swi boxiwile, yi tirhisiwile hi magoza mambirhi ku sampula vaanguri va 273 eka ntirho wa swo tleketla. Eka mhaka ya endlelo ro kongomisa eka nkoka wa vanhu, mipimanyeto ya ndhurho eka xiviko xa 2016 xa Cost of Crashes in South Africa yi hundzuluxiwile hi ku katsa inifulexini, ku tirhisiwa mpimo wa 2017 wa 5.3% ku kuma mipimanyeto ya ndhurho ya 2017. Dyondzo leyi yi paluxile leswaku endlelo ro kongomisa eka nkoka wa vanhu ri kayiveta ku vona ndhurho wa mitlumbo ya le magondzweni. Dyondzo leyi yi hoxa xandla eka ntsengo wa vutivi hi ku tirhisa endlelo ro languta nkoka wa vanhu na endlelo ro pfumela ku hakela eka dyondzo yi ri yin’we ku kombisa ntirhiseko wa endlelo leri ra nkatso (hybrid)/nhlanganiso eka xiyimo xa Afrika-Dzonga. Ndzavisiso wa nkarhi lowu taka wu fanele ku engeta dyondzo leyi hi sampulu leyi humaka eka swifundzakulu hinkwaswo swa nkaye swa Afrika-Dzonga, leswaku mipimanyeto ya ndhurho yi yimela vanhu va tiko hinkwaro.
Road traffic crashes are one of the worst risks of road mobility worldwide, representing a huge socio-economic problem particularly in developing countries such as South Africa. In order to provide a sound economic basis for investment decisions to address this challenge, it is critical to assess the cost of these crashes. These estimates serve cost-benefit analysis inputs to facilitate a more efficient resources allocation for interventions to address the challenge posed by road crashes. South Africa has not been updating crash cost estimates on a regular basis, and those that were conducted used the much criticised human capital approach. Therefore, the available estimates could not be relied upon for planning purposes and comparison with the estimates of other countries. It is against this background that this study developed and illustrated the application of a hybrid framework for assessing the cost of road traffic crashes in South Africa. The framework uses the human capital approach and the willingness-to-pay approach in one study. Human capital approach cost estimates are needed to inform planning to maximize the national output, while the willingness-to-pay estimates are more suitable when the main concern is to inform interventions to increase social welfare by reducing injuries and fatalities. The willingness-to-pay approach uses the contingent valuation and the stated preference methods. A survey questionnaire with contingent valuation and stated preference questions was administered in two phases to a sample of 273 respondents within the transport industry. For the human capital approach, the cost estimates in the 2016 Cost of Crashes in South Africa report were adjusted for inflation using the 2017 rate of 5.3% to obtain 2017 cost estimates. This study revealed that the human capital approach underestimates the cost of road crashes. The study contributes to the body of knowledge by using the human capital approach and the willingness-to-pay approach in one study to illustrate the applicability of this hybrid/ combination within the South African context. Future research needs to replicate this study on a sample drawn from all nine provinces of South Africa, so that the cost estimates are representative of the country’s population.
Ukuphazamiseka komgwaqo kungenye yezingozi ezimbi kakhulu zokuhamba komgwaqo emhlabeni jikelele, ezimele inkinga enkulu yenhlalo nezomnotho ikakhulukazi emazweni asathuthuka njengeNingizimu Afrika. Ukuze unikeze isisekelo sezomnotho esizwakalayo ezinqumeni zokutshala izimali ukubhekana nale nselele, kubalulekile ukuhlola izindleko zalezi zingozi. Lezi zilinganiso zisebenza njengeziphakamiso zokuhlaziywa kwezindleko zokuhlomula ukuze kube lula ukunikezwa kwezinsiza ezenzelwe ukuxazulula inselele ebangelwa ukuphazamiseka komgwaqo. INingizimu Afrika ayizange ibuyekeze ukulinganisa izindleko zezingozi njalo, futhi lezo ezenziwa zisebenzise indlela enkulu yokugxeka ukusebenzisa abantu. Ngakho-ke, izilinganiso ezitholakalayo azikwazanga ukuthenjelwa kuzona ngezinjongo zokuhlela nokuqhathaniswa nezilinganiso zamanye amazwe. Lokhu kuphikisana nalesi sigaba ukuthi lolu cwaningo lusungulwe futhi luboniswe ukusetshenziswa kohlaka oluxubile lokuhlola izindleko zokuphazamiseka komgwaqo eNingizimu Afrika. Uhlaka lusebenzisa indlela yokusebenzisa abantu kanye nendlela yokuzimisela-ukukhokha ocwaningweni olulodwa. Ukulinganiselwa kwezindleko zokusebenzisa abantu kuyadingeka ukuze kwaziswe ukuhlela ukwandisa umkhiqizo kazwelonke, kanti ukulinganiselwa kokuzimisela-ukukhokhela kukulungele kakhulu ukwazisa ukungenelela ukwandisa inhlalakahle yomphakathi ngokunciphisa ukulimala nokubulawa kwabantu. Indlela yokuzimisela-ukukhokha isebenzisa ukuhlaziywa kwesilinganiso kanye nezindlela okukhethwa ngazo. Imibuzo yokuhlola ngokuhlaziywa kwesilinganiso kanye nemibuzo ekhethwe ngayo yenziwa ngezigaba ezimbili embonakalisweni yabaphendulile abangama-273 embonini yezokuthutha. Ngokwendlela yokusebenzisa abantu, izindleko ezilinganiselwa ku-2016 Izindleko Zokushayisana eNingizimu Afrika kubikwa ukuthi zalungiselwa ukwenyuka kwamandla emali, kusetshenziswa isilinganiso sango-2017 esingu-5.3% ukuthola izindleko zango-2017. Lolu cwaningo luveze ukuthi indlela yokusebenzisa abantu ithatha kancane izindleko zokuphazamiseka komgwaqo. Ucwaningo lunomthelela emzimbeni wolwazi ngokusebenzisa indlela yokusebenzisa abantu kanye nendlela yokuzimisela-ukukhokha ocwaningweni olulodwa ukukhombisa ukufaneleka kwalesi sivumelwano / inhlanganisela ngaphakathi komongo waseNingizimu Afrika. Ucwaningo lwesikhathi esizayo ludinga ukuphindaphinda lolu cwaningo embonakalisweni othathwe kuzo zonke izifundazwe eziyisishiyagalolunye zaseNingizimu Afrika, ukuze ukulinganiswa kwezindleko kummele abantu bezwe
Business Management
D. Phil. (Management Studies)