Academic literature on the topic 'Rozhodování za rizika a nejistoty'

Mateřství je v dnešních západních společnostech vnímáno jako svobodná volba, nikoli nevyhnutelný ženský úděl. Ženy se v rámci svých možných životních stylů mohou a musí rozhodovat o tom, kdy a za jakých podmínek se chtějí stát matkami, případně jestli vůbec chtějí. Úplná kontrola nad reprodukcí je však jen zdánlivá. Ženy ve svém rozhodování zvažují řadu faktorů, které nemohou ovlivnit. Kromě individuální touhy po dítěti do hry vstupují sociálně a kulturně definované podmínky mateřství (načasování mateřství v životní dráze ženy, stabilní rodinné uspořádání, materiální zabezpečení atd.) a biologické limity reprodukce (omezená doba plodnosti ženy a rizika spojována s mateřstvím v určitém věku). Snaha o naplnění podmínek „správného mateřství“ vede k prodlužování období dočasně chápané bezdětnosti, které může vyústit v bezdětnost celoživotní. V našem výzkumu srovnáváme výpovědi dvou skupin žen, které jsou/byly nuceny v určité fázi svého života čelit situaci, kdy jejich touha po dítěti nebyla v souladu s jinými podmínkami mateřství. V prvním případě jde o ženy, které odkládaly mateřství z důvodu absence podmínky, kterou definovaly jako nezbytnou, ve druhém případě se realizaci rodičovství postavila do cesty fyzická překážka v podobě neplodnosti. Cílem výzkumu je zjistit, jak je utvářena norma správného mateřství a jak je redefinovaná v případě, že jí není možné naplnit.

This thesis is focused on the methods and tools which are helpful in decision-making under uncertainty and risk. The methods of decision-making for discrete and continuous values of risk factors are used in the thesis. In case of discrete values of risk factors and decision-making under risk, the thesis uses the rule of expected values, the rule of expected value and variance and also calculates the value of perfect information. In case of decision-making under uncertainty, the thesis is focused on the rule of maximin and maximax, Laplace's rule, Hurwitz's rule and Savage's rule. The following part of the thesis is devoted to decision-making with continuous values of risk factors. It utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation method and the sensitivity analysis with the help of Lumina Analytica software. The last part of the thesis is aimed at utilization of decision trees in case of multistage decision-making. It uses the Treeplan software which works as a plugin in MS office Excel. All the mentioned methods are practically applied to a concrete case of analysing and ex post evaluating the business plans of a company, which is based at Jindřichův Hradec market.

This thesis deals with current discourse whether methods of neuroscience generate useful tools for standard economics to understand, predict and ideally guide behavior of humans, social groups and the whole economies. An initial methodological analysis concluded that the usefulness of neuroeconomics is still only potential, since this approach is not able to answer substantial questions of economics in better way than tools existing. Following sections of thesis summarized representative research in the field of decision neuroscience in the areas of intertemporal decisions, decision-making under risk and uncertainty and the strategic interactions, and social preferences respectively. It has been demonstrated that many findings of decision neuroscience offer a partial confirmation of specific economic models already or provide inspiration for creating new ones.

Globalization requires a new understanding of the effect of attitudes in the decision making process, particularly when regional differences arise from different cultural and social norms. Information behavior is the part of behavioral economics that explores decision making stakeholders - consumers, businessmen or politicians, under conditions of bounded rationality. For consumers it is primarily important to buy local products from family farms. The aim of the thesis was to verify the effectiveness of that model in the Czech Republic, especially to fill in the empirical aspect of behavioral economics, relating to consumer behavior under unclear information as well as normal environments, thus understanding the indirect effect of perception on product information. Today these issues are gaining in importance in developed countries as well as in the Czech Republic. The high probability of "never researching product information" resides more within consumers with negative attitudes toward global issues (30%) than in consumers with positive attitudes towards those issues (about 1%). Attitudinal changes affect decreases among those "never searching for product information" (by 30%) as well as increasing "search-rates" (by 60%). In other words, the changes in attitude have significant effects on consumer behavior (Spillover effect). Predicting decision making behavior under unclear information also shows important results. Changes of attitude toward nutrient security, milk of origin or ingredients is associated with relative changes in behavior. A change of attitude will reduce the probability to sometimes buy products with unclear (15%) and increases the probability of buying products with clear information (17%). Empirical research of behaviors under uncertainty are long-term projects, however methodologies may vary differentially. By connecting the theory of planned behavior to the theory of information, these theses fill in the issues of behavioral economics theory. The practical implication is a methodological approach of the model.

Obecný popis teorie Behavioral Finance, porovnání s alternativními teoriemi (hlavně s teorií efektivních trhů). Analýza vybraných problémů - Prospect Theory, Cognitive Framing, spekulativní bubliny. Empirický výzkum v oblasti psychologie davu a oblasti reakcí kapitálových trhů na nové informace.

Při plánování produkce se často můžeme setkat s nejistotou ohledně velikosti budoucí poptávky. Potom nezbývá než modelovat poptávku jako náhodnou veličinu, čímž se však modely plánování produkce stávají úlohami stochastického programování. Cílem této práce je pak prostudovat jednotlivé koncepty stochastického programování a aplikovat je na modely plánování produkce. Pozornost bude přitom věnována jak rozhodováním za rizika, kdy přesně známe rozdělení pravděpodobnosti náhodných parametrů, tak také rozhodováním za neurčitosti, kdy máme o těchto rozděleních jen částečnou informaci. Na závěr budou jednotlivé postupy demonstrovány na numerickém příkladu.

The principal goal of this thesis is the effort to create a decision model whereby the responsible Emergency Medical Service workers could set the amount of the required operating contribution. The operating contribution from the founder of the contributory organization is a very important item in creating the financial budget of the contributory organization. In the thesis the alternatives which may significantly influence the incomes of the contributory organization will be set by the decider. Since the founder determines the amount of the operating contribution which will be offered to the contributory organization, this data will not be worked with as a possible alternative. Furthermore the circumstances which may occur and which the organization must take into account will be determined.

Decision making is one of the primary management activities, sometimes even referred to as the core of management. In order to survive in today's turbulent and competitive environment, the company places even greater demands on managers who control the firm through their decisions. Practice shows that the risk during their decisions is often underestimated, in many cases even ignored, threatening the business prosperity of companies. Such an unfavourable situation was the main reason why the author of this work decided to apply risk management methods for solving a decision problem in practice. For this purpose, author cooperated with company called ComAp, which is nowadays considering expanding its focus and eventually enter into new markets. The aim of this study is to assess the possibility of ComAp entering the market of hybrid systems and by using the methods of risk management to recommend a suitable alternative. Another objective of this work is to evaluate the contribution of the Monte Carlo method for solving the problem possible usage of this tool in ComAp in future.

This thesis investigates optimality of heuristic forecasting. According to Goldstein a Gigerenzer (2009), heuristics can be viewed as predictive models, whose simplicity is exploiting the bias-variance trade-off. Economic agents learning in the context of rational expectations (Marcet a Sargent 1989) employ, on the contrary, complex models of the whole economy. Both of these approaches can be perceived as an optimal response complexity of the prediction task and availability of observations. This work introduces a straightforward extension to the standard model of decision making under uncertainty, where agents utility depends on accuracy of their predictions and where model complexity is moderated by regularization parameter. Results of Monte Carlo simulations reveal that in complicated environments, where few observations are at disposal, it is beneficial to construct simple models resembling heuristics. Unbiased models are preferred in more convenient conditions.

This thesis aplied tools of economic analysis on situation in poker, where players choose to finish tournament or make a deal and take certain amount of money immediately. Theoretical frame consists of economic theories for decesion under risk and poker literature. Hypotheses are tested with regresion analysis on dataset which I obtain by my own observing. Estimations support hypothesis that players are risk-averze and loss-averze. In bigger tournaments are bigger prizepools and that is the reason, why players in bigger tournament make deals more often. Moreover deal is more likely, when players are approximetly equal skilled in poker.